This would make me much more optimistic except we keep seeing reports like this about the consumer (Tuesday's chain store numbers):
June looks to be a very weak month for non-gasoline retailers, according to weekly chain-store reports including ICSC-Goldman which reports a 0.6 percent week-to-week drop in the June 13 week for a year-on-year decline of 1.5 percent, the second lowest year-on-year rate since early in the year. The report cites high gasoline prices and unfavorable weather for the trouble.
I don't really see how a consumer driven economy can recover without the consumer.
Taking off for another walk in the Bretton Woods, where the mountain-tops look suspiciously like that jagged graph, and you can see the forest for the trees in a bear market.
"I don't really see how a consumer driven economy can recover without the consumer. "
This has been nagging me for quite sometime as well. It seems people are just taking their rulers and a grease pencil and drawing trends and then predicting the recovery. Do fundamentals not matter to these forecasters? Have they ever?
they did it once before....doing it again. That's the systemic problem here. On our local news they "interviewed" people about the whole "green shoots" mantra and to a person almost all of them said "I just don't know so I go with what the media tells me".
So if you feel good about it it's all okeely dokely...
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 9:18 am
We make something that everybody wants.
Money!
I see some real potential here. With proper marketing, we could create, if you will, a "money market". And we will be the monopoly provider, marketing our "money" to the unsuspecting.. err... sophisticated... consumer. This insight may save our economy. It will be a revolution!
How about an "overwhelming" stagnation in manufacturing activity.
FED+Treasury are trying to make it OK with Congressional approval to bailout GE, hedge funds directly, you'll see. A increase in "oversight" has only led to more bailouts.
I'm brand new here. Is the basic idea to scoff at/dismiss out of hand all information that does not correspond to the preconception that we're headed into a new dark ages?
"Do fundamentals not matter to these forecasters? Have they ever? "
Well, I would argue that there are two economies. One is the "mental"/wishful-thinking/paper pushing economy that is manipulated with green shoots, stress tests, and TARP. The other is the underlying fundamental economy, where someone makes things that people want. It does not appear to me that either economy has much effect on the other.
I am sure that the "forecasters" are primarily focused on the ponzi version of the economy, since that is the one they are most able to influence.
I'm brand new here. Is the basic idea to scoff at/dismiss out of hand all information that does not correspond to the preconception that we're headed into a new dark ages?
"I'm brand new here. Is the basic idea to scoff at/dismiss out of hand all information that does not correspond to the preconception"
After years of Ponies and Green Shoots, I suspect the posters here have developed a healthy dose of skepticism with regard to the data that the MSM, corporate sycophants, and USGov provide. Of course we could be wrong, and it may be that Lehman is well capitalized.
For those who may not know, there is a rollover effect for any glossary words you use in your posts - ex. CR or Nemo - with the definition. Will be really helpful as the glossary grows.
The issue is that you've stumbled onto a very small cross section of the population that actually remembers what our political, economic and media "leaders" have fed us over the last 2 years. Here's a great synopsis of some of the doozies... Zero Hedge: The Confidence Game In Quotes
So, yes, by and large, we're pretty skeptical of the bottom calls, recession over, green shoots tripe.
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 9:28 am
"Do fundamentals not matter to these forecasters? Have they ever? "
Well, I would argue that there are two economies. One is the "mental"/wishful-thinking/paper pushing economy that is manipulated with green shoots, stress tests, and TARP. The other is the underlying fundamental economy, where someone makes things that people want. It does not appear to me that either economy has much effect on the other.
I am sure that the "forecasters" are primarily focused on the ponzi version of the economy, since that is the one they are most able to influence.
The efficiency of "TARPonomic" (term coined by BR, I believe) processes far exceeds that of dirty manufacturing and service industries, so naturally the more efficient economy will supplant the less-efficient one. Creating goods that are eventually traded for dollars is far more wasteful and much slower than just creating dollars and trading them for other dollars. In the meantime, we have two separate economies, one that provides the standard of living necessary to believe in the reality of other one, and that other one. Until the mental economy can pull itself up by its own bootstraps, of course, and get rid of that pesky requirement for physicality.
Bernanke: "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."
"Seven of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in May. The positive contributors — beginning with the largest positive contributor — were index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), interest rate spread, stock prices, real money supply*, index of consumer expectations, building permits, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*. The negative contributors — beginning with the largest negative contributor — were average weekly manufacturing hours, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials*."
So, of the 10 leading indicators:
Stock prices? Since when are stock prices an indicator of anything (maybe the level of irrational exuberance in the market).
Real Money Supply? How is this a leading indicator? Of inflation, maybe.
Interest Rate Spread? Manipulated by the Fed.
Consumer Expectations? Useless.
The rest I would agree with - supplier deliveries does measure activity, likewise building permits, new order, manufacturing hours as well, etc.
But looking at activity in the markets, and consumer expectations, is ridiculous in my opinion.
"I just don't know so I go with what the media tells me".
I'M THE SLIME
I am gross and perverted
I’m obsessed ’n deranged
I have existed for years
But very little had changed
I am the tool of the government
And industry too
For I am destined to rule
And regulate you
I may be vile and pernicious
But you can’t look away
I make you think I’m delicious
With the stuff that I say
I am the best you can get
Have you guessed me yet?
I am the slime oozin’ out
From your tv set
You will obey me while I lead you
And eat the garbage that I feed you
Until the day that we don’t need you
Don’t go for help...no one will heed you
Your mind is totally controlled
It has been stuffed into my mold
And you will do as you are told
Until the rights to you are sold
That’s right, folks..
Don’t touch that dial
I am the slime from your video
Oozin’ along on your livin’room floor
I am the slime from your video
Can’t stop the slime, people, lookit me go
Zappa 1976
This index is also seasonally adjusted, no? Isn't that a source of goosing?
Current prices paid doesn't jive with deflation reading from yesterday... April = -31, May = -23, June = -13... doesn't that bode poorly?
Firms continue to report employment losses and declines in work hours. The current employment index remained at a relatively weak -21.8, although it increased five points from May. Still, 31 percent of firms reported declines in employment this month; only 10 percent reported increases. The average workweek index weakened this month: It fell three points, to -26.6
Anyone have U6 estimates? Charts that go back a few years would be great. Trying to show a co-worker how bad it really is. Broken down by State would be even more stellar (or just for CA).
The MSM economists will get a clue when mortars start raining down in Manhattan and the drones, controlled by the revolutionary forces, start firing upon anybody looking like a Wall Street trader
I'm definitely not an authority on this, but the way that the government determines the headline UE number was changed - I think in the 90's. Up to that point the headline number is probably closer to U6 than U3. So, for example, that 25% UE in GD1 would corresppond to 25% U6, not 25% U3.
Bernanke: "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."
Except for systemically fraudulent banks.
We have to bailout fraud to save main street. And to keep rent flowing to the rentier class.
They should reissue the game "Chutes and Ladders" with a few rule changes. One, all chutes (red in the original game, I believe) are of course Green. Two, every ladder disappears after someone uses it, because they pull up the ladder as they go. I'm sure the game will be enjoyable for all.
I'll tell you what, I have been searching for this data for the last hour (well, on and off, while I do my job) and cannot find any info on the extended benefits rolls. The BLS site does not seem to be up to date with today's release. Here is the best I can find.
"Still, millions of Americans are receiving unemployment compensation under an emergency federal program authorized by Congress last summer and extended by the Obama administration's stimulus package.
About 2.4 million people received benefits under that program in the week ending May 30, an increase of more than 102,000 from the previous week. That's in addition to the 6.7 million people receiving benefits under the 26-week program typically provided by states."
So according to this, in addition to the 6.7M receiving state programs, another 2.4M are getting benefits under the federal program. If anyone can find a link to this data, it would be greatly appreciated.
Also, this article is the only one I have seen with a quote from a non-pumper economist. Congrats Joshua Shapiro:
""It is unlikely that new hiring has picked up in any meaningful fashion," Joshua Shapiro, chief economist with MFR Inc., a consulting firm, wrote in a note to clients. "More probable is that long-term unemployed are starting to fall off the rolls.""
"The efficiency of "TARPonomic" (term coined by BR, I believe) processes far exceeds that of dirty manufacturing and service industries, so naturally the more efficient economy will supplant the less-efficient one. Creating goods that are eventually traded for dollars is far more wasteful and much slower than just creating dollars and trading them for other dollars. In the meantime, we have two separate economies, one that provides the standard of living necessary to believe in the reality of other one, and that other one. Until the mental economy can pull itself up by its own bootstraps, of course, and get rid of that pesky requirement for physicality."
Thanks everyone for the thoughtful responses to my semi-rhetorical question. In all honesty, the above comment about the physical economy is a little too Lynden Larouche-like for my liking, but at the same time I think it's perfectly accurate in this current situation.
So I guess a follow-up question is "what next?" Obviously, the mental economy is Wile E. Coyote, and the physical transaction of goods and services is the ground, so when does Mr. Coyote look down, point his little sign, and plummet down?
Juvenal says "Taking off for another walk in the Bretton Woods, where the mountain-tops look suspiciously like that jagged graph, and you can see the forest for the trees in a bear market."
No kidding, I am looking at a house for sale on Bretton Woods Court. Plenty of trees, and yes, the price has been reduced.
Oh, and it's a gated community. Does the developer have some odd sense of irony?
"so when does Mr. Coyote look down, point his little sign, and plummet down?"
Well in reality it's already occurred.....the problem is this pesky thing called "price discovery". When you have a system that is dead-set against any of that you get this huge shifts of perception vs. reality.
Judging from the last time I took the train in from NY, the Philly Manufacturing survey should add a category for disassembling abandoned manufacturing plants.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 10:18 am
Thanks everyone for the thoughtful responses to my semi-rhetorical question. In all honesty, the above comment about the physical economy is a little too Lynden Larouche-like for my liking, but at the same time I think it's perfectly accurate in this current situation.
So I guess a follow-up question is "what next?" Obviously, the mental economy is Wile E. Coyote, and the physical transaction of goods and services is the ground, so when does Mr. Coyote look down, point his little sign, and plummet down?
When the maintenance costs of the illusion can no longer be sustained by the output of the real economy. Don't stop believin!
I think any manufacturing blips this Qtr are inventory restocking. This is based on my experience where almost everyone of our customers emptied their warehouses in Q4. Orders are coming back in to fill the holes in stock that were created with a total shutdown for 3 months. A pickup in orders does not mean an automatic pickup in sales.
Check out ZH's post on the increase of money paid out vs. the actual #'s.....pretty enlightening IMO."
Thanks I will check it out.
Here is another article, actually the same article I posted earlier, but with a bit different wording (I wonder how that works - some dude writes the article, then others get to alter the wording?).
In any case, it brings up a good point, and one that points to data that would be even more interesting: "The report shows that job losses are easing after companies made deep cuts earlier this year. But it's not clear whether recipients of unemployment insurance are finding new jobs or simply using up all their benefits, which typically last 26 weeks."
How many people go from being on the rolls for 26 weeks, to being off? that is, how many people "fall off the end". Likewise, for the extended benefits, how many fall off the end?
reporting the overall number of people receiving 26 weeks of benefits is pretty useless, IMHO. In a recession like this, that number is pretty meaningless.
From the Department of Labor website, which is the source of unemployment claims -
"States reported 2,359,537 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending May 30, an increase of 102,946 from the prior week. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity. "
@friardaddy - $14 T - where have I seen that number before? Oh yeah - CR had a similar number on the total lost value in assets since the peak. Coincidence?
@ghost - 300,000 increase in extended, 148,000 decrease in reg. benefits, unknown dropoff at the end of extended. 480,000 total, or higher, or lower?
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 10:22 am
"TARPon" a large coastal fish, when if speared becomes "TARPooned"
TARPon frequent the Caymans and other small islands in Central America but have been seen as far away as Northern Europe. They have gluttonous appetites and many have beached themselves inadvertently in their attempts to become "too big to fail". Scientists suspect they communicate with one another through an as-yet-undiscovered telepathic mechanism, and that many TARPon are in fact semi-autonomous parts of larger entities which span multiple locations. It is even hypothesized that the TARPon are all part of a single intelligent organism, though this view is considered radical by most expert marine biologists researching the species.
Just my opinion however something is going on with GE....look at the huge volume dumps of the last few days. Today it was down over 6% at one point....not getting much of a bounce.
The next bailout candidate or just the continuance of screw shorty?
After 33 weeks the hoi unempolloiment assignats stop coming and no job possibilities loom on the horizon, and no equity can be pulled out of the Excalibare that is your home.
boy, I see I have a lot of catching up to do... thanks 1 Currency for the email on that Holiday in Cambodia Wild Girl Booze Cruise I posted on YouTube...
and to LawyerLiz, no, you're not chopped liver ... adding some beefcake for your benefit to version 2, along with a few new lassies...
how's this related to economics? Asian metrics tracking liquor industry sales...
busier earlier today going the Black Hat, or the Black Ranch or Black Halo or whomever was into gun talk... was out on a range
firing away on a tripod mounted machine gun... (no, the Thais haven't invaded...) the gun was a PK is a 7.62 mm, which is a general purpose machine gun designed in the Soviet Union and currently in production in Russia. Its NATO equivalents are the FN MAG, MG3, and M60 machine guns.
never underestimate that saying about boys and their guns - if there is a saying - what an adrenaline RUSH!
Maybe the reason the Fed allowed some banks to pay back the TARP is that they need it to bail out new firms? That way they don't have to ask for more money and can do as they please with the funds.
"ghostfaceinvestah" (please forward all of your personal data to the Federal Information Czar, ASAP).
The type of data you desire is not available to the working class. It is not in the best interests of this glorious Republic to publish such irrelevant information during this most important period of rebuilding.
Conference Board- "All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes continues to suggest that the recession that began in December 2007 will likely ease in the near term."
had an offer to go up to a mountainside and fire a rocket and blow something really big up... gotta keep something for the
future...
what does this have to do with finance and economics? the military-industrial complex, duh...
here's that video - yes LawyerLiz, there is a bit of beefcake, that is if you're a chicken hawk YouTube - Holiday in Cambodia on a Happy Shake & Booze Cruise with Wild & Crazy Beautiful Girls
both reading and chewing gum backwards is tough...
OT/
my take on Iran...
on the defensive Ahmadinejad (I'm changing my name to to JeffNardinejad in his honor... after all, I shook hands with LBJ in '66, a world class vote rigger in his own right) pulled a Nikita '57 and bussed, flew and wagon carted in all of his supporters from the outlying oblasts, or whatever they call that political unit in Farsi - big difference between the two actions, Khrushchev flew in part bosses while Ahmadinejad carted in the useless and the feckless...
question is will Moussavi turn out to be a parallel to Dubček and even if put in power ultimately forced to modify or abandon his program of comprehensive change, that is, assuming he has one...
"so when does Mr. Coyote look down, point his little sign, and plummet down?"
Well in reality it's already occurred.....the problem is this pesky thing called "price discovery". When you have a system that is dead-set against any of that you get this huge shifts of perception vs. reality.
The hardest thing I've had to explain to both myself and my acquaintences over the past 12 months is the agonizingly slow pace that a recessiong can unfold at. And, furthermore, they should find a bit of comfort in that thought as the alternative, a rapid correction to underlying fundamentals, will not only overshoot the mark as it inevitably does, but potentially could unfold faster than market participants could effectively react, thereby exacerbating the problem.
People can react to a normally functioning market, even if they're losing money...at least as far as I've seen. But they cannot react effectively to situations like Sept08, when the market loses all semblance of predicatability and hedging risk becomes impossible. And by trying to prevent this market from effectively discovering prices, governments and bankers have set us up for at least one or two more terrifying realignments. I am concerned for the coming fall...hopefully not turning into a very very long winter.
"So I guess a follow-up question is "what next?" Obviously, the mental economy is Wile E. Coyote, and the physical transaction of goods and services is the ground, so when does Mr. Coyote look down, point his little sign, and plummet down?"
Capitulation historically precedes a bottom in a market. I do not think the "green shoots" coming from TPTB are a good sign, as they seem to have settled on avoiding a little short-term pain, in exchange for some long-term agony.
I think the Homer Simpson jumping the gorge on a skateboard, might be a better analogy, with the recent low being the bottom of the ramp and that were are now at the "Woo Hoo!"/green shoot point, where Homer thinks he is going to make it. The "Doh!" point is just ahead.
yes but I will also add that Sept. 08' was an engineered event as well. It was not a mistake that the Fed drained billion of money and about 3 days later we had the fall-out of the "W's"
It will happen again and it will be yet another engineered event.
Once all the retail giants have gone BK, and the inventory restocking has finished, will there then be a "Bailout" of the retail sector using the TARP repayment money?
adding to Blackhalo's comment...most people have never seen capitulation.....the March low was not it. Until we see it (and you'll know it when you see it) we will continue to have the system create space in the index's for these type of events to occur.
Check out the future expectations numbers almost back to 2004!! Also the LEI* is curious if you look at the 80-82 peirod it was essentially a rolling bottom. now it is a "V". it is completley useless metric. Rinse wash repeat.
DeeperDepression (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 11:04 am
Once all the retail giants have gone BK, and the inventory restocking has finished, will there then be a "Bailout" of the retail sector using the TARP repayment money?
Continuously recycling the TARP funds could be an interesting undertaking. The healing TARP goes forth, enters in, and returns. We could even have the start of a religious movement here.
Continuously recycling the TARP funds could be an interesting undertaking. The healing TARP goes forth, enters in, and returns. We could even have the start of a religious movement here.
We could all meet in the street carrying a green shoot, wearing a green tarp and "tarpooning" any Banksters we happen to see.
To be honest, I'd prefer the bankster cage-match approach, 2 bankers enter, one bankster leaves...only after one shanks the other, you know, we throw away the cage.
To be honest, I'd prefer the bankster cage-match approach, 2 bankers enter, one bankster leaves...only after one shanks the other, you know, we throw away the cage.
that is the reality show i would pay good money to see
Babble, welcome. I'm fairly new myself. I've learned more on this site in the last 3 months than I have after 5 years with a TBTF bank. The humor just punctuates everything.
Slick Dog (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 11:18 am
Babble, welcome. I'm fairly new myself. I've learned more on this site in the last 3 months than I have after 5 years with a TBTF bank. The humor just punctuates everything.
Punctuates everything and punctures some things...
Not much in the way of response to the 'what's next' question, at least not seriously...
With +20% of the world's agriculture productivity in the US, close to 25% in North America, I see that as an important factor in what happens going forward.
I think that we should consider that the storm could be passing... Are the equity markets over bought, probably but the numbers, as mp has been pointing out over and over, are painting a better picture...
mp -
Thanks for the link. I think Conjure is on to something; stabilization is to be preferred over some of the chaos of the recent past.
I still do not see a "V" and probably am more inclined to expect an "L" or a REALLY WIDE "W," but all of the reckless racing back-and-forth of some large and extremely heavy participants was in danger of completely capsizing the boat.
If we can stabilize, maybe we can start to row for shore. I hope so, because some of the weaker passengers look like they cannot hold out much longer.
and as for rebounds via consumer consumption. most of the traditional 'consumer consumption' bs is an import via china etc. we could start a form of recover in some sectors with out a major increase in consumer consumption of junk. take commercial construction for example... peaked in 2008 (late) thats not coming back till long after the economy is in full swing.... everything has a different phase / cycle time....
And THAT, is why I am less than optimistic that we are done with the hurt yet. Not only will the high rates stifle any recovery, but the interest payments on the national debt is going to severely limit the options available. What is the debt service on < ten trillion if the 10-year goes to ~20%?
Blackhalo - the rates will only effect future borrowing right... maybe it will be a huge incentive to stop borrowing.... ok now I'm just humoring myself...
said it before and I'll say it again....you can have all the regs., reform, stipulations but they do no good unless they are enforced. This problem stemmed from enforcement not from a lack of regulations. AIG's regulator quit in 2007 because he saw what they had done. There were multiple regs. in place to curtail (not stop) AIG's practices. His boss chose to cool him off so he resigned.
BTW BR is just selling books nowadays.....his "insight" appeals to the "hurray henry" crowd IMO.
Take back the trillions of $$$ given to the banks, who just sit on it and make it totally ineffective then start government incentive to create realistic industries that give employment and generate real productive income, some of which would hopefully be from exports.
Every other country, especially China and most of Europe have goverment incentives to protect it's industries. No matter what you call it it's a form of protectionism and its inevitable. We should stop being naive and take care of our own house. The only ones who win if we don't are the multinational corporations who don't care where they get their hand out.
Every other country, especially China and most of Europe have goverment incentives to protect it's industries. No matter what you call it it's a form of protectionism and its inevitable. We should stop being naive and take care of our own house. The only ones who win if we don't are the multinational corporations who don't care where they get their hand out.
Derivatives save the day. Green chutes all around.
I guess this would matter if we actually made something that someone actually wanted...but we haven't for a very long time.
Ciao
MS
This would make me much more optimistic except we keep seeing reports like this about the consumer (Tuesday's chain store numbers):
June looks to be a very weak month for non-gasoline retailers, according to weekly chain-store reports including ICSC-Goldman which reports a 0.6 percent week-to-week drop in the June 13 week for a year-on-year decline of 1.5 percent, the second lowest year-on-year rate since early in the year. The report cites high gasoline prices and unfavorable weather for the trouble.
I don't really see how a consumer driven economy can recover without the consumer.
I don't really see how a consumer driven economy can recover without the consumer.
Hater.
Moin from Germany,
too bad that every time something that is at least close to deserving the phrase "Green Shoot" the bond market gets killed.....
Hater.
It's concern I feel out of love.
BTW, treasuries getting hammered again.
MS (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 9:10 am
I guess this would matter if we actually made something that someone actually wanted...but we haven't for a very long time.
We'll get marketing on that. The consumer will learn to want what we actually make.
Taking off for another walk in the Bretton Woods, where the mountain-tops look suspiciously like that jagged graph, and you can see the forest for the trees in a bear market.
"I don't really see how a consumer driven economy can recover without the consumer. "
This has been nagging me for quite sometime as well. It seems people are just taking their rulers and a grease pencil and drawing trends and then predicting the recovery. Do fundamentals not matter to these forecasters? Have they ever?
ac-
they did it once before....doing it again. That's the systemic problem here. On our local news they "interviewed" people about the whole "green shoots" mantra and to a person almost all of them said "I just don't know so I go with what the media tells me".
So if you feel good about it it's all okeely dokely...
Ciao
MS
"Do fundamentals not matter to these forecasters?"
Does the truth matter to a politician?
We make something that everybody wants.
Money!
Hater +1
noob-
fundamentals left the building a very LONG time ago and are in a galaxy far, far away.
Ciao
MS
" We make something that everybody wants.
Money!"
Credit?
They are making more stuff with fewer people, hopeing to sell it to those with no jobs.
What am I missing here?
the only thing we make is debt. And we back that debt with what amounts to a used car salesman spouting "trust me"
Ciao
MS
The current number is good news, but the future sentiment is probably skewed by unrealistic optimism.
Something to ponder...
1944 Bretton Woods agreement glod = $35 oz
1971 Abrogation of glod clause
1972: Glod $125
2009: Abrogation of reserve clause
2010: ?
Check out the Glossary, it is the essentially companion to Calculated Risk.
It is on the left side of the screen, under your user name.
"the only thing we make is debt. And we back that debt with what amounts to a used car salesman spouting "trust me" "
" " We make something that everybody wants.
Money!""
In a fiat, fractional reserve economy, you are both right - debt IS money. And BB is making a lot of it.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 9:18 am
We make something that everybody wants.
Money!
I see some real potential here. With proper marketing, we could create, if you will, a "money market". And we will be the monopoly provider, marketing our "money" to the unsuspecting.. err... sophisticated... consumer. This insight may save our economy. It will be a revolution!
Any doubt that some of this increased activity is related to the consumer having extra dough from not paying their mortgage?
...or their taxes?
...or their credit cards?
"dramatic slowing"?
How about an "overwhelming" stagnation in manufacturing activity.
FED+Treasury are trying to make it OK with Congressional approval to bailout GE, hedge funds directly, you'll see. A increase in "oversight" has only led to more bailouts.
I'm brand new here. Is the basic idea to scoff at/dismiss out of hand all information that does not correspond to the preconception that we're headed into a new dark ages?
"Do fundamentals not matter to these forecasters? Have they ever? "
Well, I would argue that there are two economies. One is the "mental"/wishful-thinking/paper pushing economy that is manipulated with green shoots, stress tests, and TARP. The other is the underlying fundamental economy, where someone makes things that people want. It does not appear to me that either economy has much effect on the other.
I am sure that the "forecasters" are primarily focused on the ponzi version of the economy, since that is the one they are most able to influence.
the glossary is AWESOME
i haven't laughed so hard in a long time
big thanks to all contributors
Financial literacy, education. Nice softball questions that the banks wrote for timmay
Timmay should teach a class about taxes
@blackdog - "increased activity"? Less loss is the new increase.
@babble-on - LOL you catch on fast.
Tom Stone if you're in here, thank you for the message.
I'm brand new here. Is the basic idea to scoff at/dismiss out of hand all information that does not correspond to the preconception that we're headed into a new dark ages?
It's called "talking your book".
babble
"scoff, dismiss"
You left out rebuke and ridicule.
"I'm brand new here. Is the basic idea to scoff at/dismiss out of hand all information that does not correspond to the preconception"
After years of Ponies and Green Shoots, I suspect the posters here have developed a healthy dose of skepticism with regard to the data that the MSM, corporate sycophants, and USGov provide. Of course we could be wrong, and it may be that Lehman is well capitalized.
Cool, thanks. I just want to fit in! (It's a freaking great blog, by the way.)
For those who may not know, there is a rollover effect for any glossary words you use in your posts - ex. CR or Nemo - with the definition. Will be really helpful as the glossary grows.
"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted."
Einstein
Could we be seeing "survivior bias" in the numbers?
"Bear Stearns and Lehman were not that large" - TImmay
Whoa Timmay WTF?!
Blackhalo, you forgot to add " subprime is contained"
Babble,
The issue is that you've stumbled onto a very small cross section of the population that actually remembers what our political, economic and media "leaders" have fed us over the last 2 years. Here's a great synopsis of some of the doozies...
Zero Hedge: The Confidence Game In Quotes
So, yes, by and large, we're pretty skeptical of the bottom calls, recession over, green shoots tripe.
High(er) interest rates will be the next 'green shoot' for consumers.
It will free up money for current consumption as they say 'eff it' to refis/workouts and walk away from legacy debt.
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 9:28 am
"Do fundamentals not matter to these forecasters? Have they ever? "
Well, I would argue that there are two economies. One is the "mental"/wishful-thinking/paper pushing economy that is manipulated with green shoots, stress tests, and TARP. The other is the underlying fundamental economy, where someone makes things that people want. It does not appear to me that either economy has much effect on the other.
I am sure that the "forecasters" are primarily focused on the ponzi version of the economy, since that is the one they are most able to influence.
The efficiency of "TARPonomic" (term coined by BR, I believe) processes far exceeds that of dirty manufacturing and service industries, so naturally the more efficient economy will supplant the less-efficient one. Creating goods that are eventually traded for dollars is far more wasteful and much slower than just creating dollars and trading them for other dollars. In the meantime, we have two separate economies, one that provides the standard of living necessary to believe in the reality of other one, and that other one. Until the mental economy can pull itself up by its own bootstraps, of course, and get rid of that pesky requirement for physicality.
We also had a dramatic improvement in that index about 6 months. What happened?
Personal favorite from that list on Zero Hedge...
Bernanke: "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."
Really?
Regarding LEI (which increased this month):
"Seven of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in May. The positive contributors — beginning with the largest positive contributor — were index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), interest rate spread, stock prices, real money supply*, index of consumer expectations, building permits, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*. The negative contributors — beginning with the largest negative contributor — were average weekly manufacturing hours, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials*."
So, of the 10 leading indicators:
Stock prices? Since when are stock prices an indicator of anything (maybe the level of irrational exuberance in the market).
Real Money Supply? How is this a leading indicator? Of inflation, maybe.
Interest Rate Spread? Manipulated by the Fed.
Consumer Expectations? Useless.
The rest I would agree with - supplier deliveries does measure activity, likewise building permits, new order, manufacturing hours as well, etc.
But looking at activity in the markets, and consumer expectations, is ridiculous in my opinion.
"I just don't know so I go with what the media tells me".
I'M THE SLIME
I am gross and perverted
I’m obsessed ’n deranged
I have existed for years
But very little had changed
I am the tool of the government
And industry too
For I am destined to rule
And regulate you
I may be vile and pernicious
But you can’t look away
I make you think I’m delicious
With the stuff that I say
I am the best you can get
Have you guessed me yet?
I am the slime oozin’ out
From your tv set
You will obey me while I lead you
And eat the garbage that I feed you
Until the day that we don’t need you
Don’t go for help...no one will heed you
Your mind is totally controlled
It has been stuffed into my mold
And you will do as you are told
Until the rights to you are sold
That’s right, folks..
Don’t touch that dial
I am the slime from your video
Oozin’ along on your livin’room floor
I am the slime from your video
Can’t stop the slime, people, lookit me go
Zappa 1976
What they feed us is just like the line, Trust Me it tastes like chicken! Some how it never does.
This index is also seasonally adjusted, no? Isn't that a source of goosing?
Current prices paid doesn't jive with deflation reading from yesterday... April = -31, May = -23, June = -13... doesn't that bode poorly?
Firms continue to report employment losses and declines in work hours. The current employment index remained at a relatively weak -21.8, although it increased five points from May. Still, 31 percent of firms reported declines in employment this month; only 10 percent reported increases. The average workweek index weakened this month: It fell three points, to -26.6
YLSP
Of course they look bad if you add the numbers... but hey look the market is up 30% from March. YA!
Anyone have U6 estimates? Charts that go back a few years would be great. Trying to show a co-worker how bad it really is. Broken down by State would be even more stellar (or just for CA).
I want to be the Roundup for her green shoot
I give it a year until we get the announcement from Dr. Bernanke
"Congratulations, you're a proud GE shareholder."
@Mike: Here's the BLS link -
Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
If you dig around, they break down some state numbers but not all of them.
Just a test
TBTF
damn Ken you're a ninja!
The MSM economists will get a clue when mortars start raining down in Manhattan and the drones, controlled by the revolutionary forces, start firing upon anybody looking like a Wall Street trader
"Anyone have U6 estimates?"
I'm definitely not an authority on this, but the way that the government determines the headline UE number was changed - I think in the 90's. Up to that point the headline number is probably closer to U6 than U3. So, for example, that 25% UE in GD1 would corresppond to 25% U6, not 25% U3.
Bernanke: "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve - nor would it be appropriate - to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions."
Except for systemically fraudulent banks.
We have to bailout fraud to save main street. And to keep rent flowing to the rentier class.
They should reissue the game "Chutes and Ladders" with a few rule changes. One, all chutes (red in the original game, I believe) are of course Green. Two, every ladder disappears after someone uses it, because they pull up the ladder as they go. I'm sure the game will be enjoyable for all.
Thanks Mr Sparkle and Nate.
Star Trek & The Auto Bailouts
Star Trek And The Auto Bailouts - Home - The Daily Bail
It's a theory from Barry Ritholtz.
TBT made a nice move; gonna be one of those days again.... PPT focus on equities...
A necessary addition:
Wright Model "B"
Glossary | Hoocoodanode?
Who knew the filling of a Philly Fed cheesesteak was cooked books?
d'oh. fixing grammar edit mistake.
I'll tell you what, I have been searching for this data for the last hour (well, on and off, while I do my job) and cannot find any info on the extended benefits rolls. The BLS site does not seem to be up to date with today's release. Here is the best I can find.
Total Claims For Unemployment Benefits Falls To 601,000 While Continuing Claims Rise - cbs13.com
"Still, millions of Americans are receiving unemployment compensation under an emergency federal program authorized by Congress last summer and extended by the Obama administration's stimulus package.
About 2.4 million people received benefits under that program in the week ending May 30, an increase of more than 102,000 from the previous week. That's in addition to the 6.7 million people receiving benefits under the 26-week program typically provided by states."
So according to this, in addition to the 6.7M receiving state programs, another 2.4M are getting benefits under the federal program. If anyone can find a link to this data, it would be greatly appreciated.
Also, this article is the only one I have seen with a quote from a non-pumper economist. Congrats Joshua Shapiro:
""It is unlikely that new hiring has picked up in any meaningful fashion," Joshua Shapiro, chief economist with MFR Inc., a consulting firm, wrote in a note to clients. "More probable is that long-term unemployed are starting to fall off the rolls.""
Re: Green Chutes and Ladders,
If you land on a green chute, you only go up, like house prices. At the top, you end on a McMansion.
Better.
Wright Model "B"
If little Latvia blows up real good, do we get to play Monopoly for keeps?
Baltic Avenue is right at the start of things, and Park Place @ the finish...
Ghost-
They just don't count the ones receiving the Federal extension as continuing??
Confusing...but what coming from them is not these day's.
Check out ZH's post on the increase of money paid out vs. the actual #'s.....pretty enlightening IMO.
Cioa
MS
"The efficiency of "TARPonomic" (term coined by BR, I believe) processes far exceeds that of dirty manufacturing and service industries, so naturally the more efficient economy will supplant the less-efficient one. Creating goods that are eventually traded for dollars is far more wasteful and much slower than just creating dollars and trading them for other dollars. In the meantime, we have two separate economies, one that provides the standard of living necessary to believe in the reality of other one, and that other one. Until the mental economy can pull itself up by its own bootstraps, of course, and get rid of that pesky requirement for physicality."
Thanks everyone for the thoughtful responses to my semi-rhetorical question. In all honesty, the above comment about the physical economy is a little too Lynden Larouche-like for my liking, but at the same time I think it's perfectly accurate in this current situation.
So I guess a follow-up question is "what next?" Obviously, the mental economy is Wile E. Coyote, and the physical transaction of goods and services is the ground, so when does Mr. Coyote look down, point his little sign, and plummet down?
Juvenal says "Taking off for another walk in the Bretton Woods, where the mountain-tops look suspiciously like that jagged graph, and you can see the forest for the trees in a bear market."
No kidding, I am looking at a house for sale on Bretton Woods Court. Plenty of trees, and yes, the price has been reduced.
Oh, and it's a gated community. Does the developer have some odd sense of irony?
"so when does Mr. Coyote look down, point his little sign, and plummet down?"
Well in reality it's already occurred.....the problem is this pesky thing called "price discovery". When you have a system that is dead-set against any of that you get this huge shifts of perception vs. reality.
Ciao
MS
ghostfaceinvestah - article referencing 8.8 million
New Weekly Jobless Claims Increase - WSJ.com
"TARPon" a large coastal fish, when if speared becomes "TARPooned"
Judging from the last time I took the train in from NY, the Philly Manufacturing survey should add a category for disassembling abandoned manufacturing plants.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 10:18 am
Thanks everyone for the thoughtful responses to my semi-rhetorical question. In all honesty, the above comment about the physical economy is a little too Lynden Larouche-like for my liking, but at the same time I think it's perfectly accurate in this current situation.
So I guess a follow-up question is "what next?" Obviously, the mental economy is Wile E. Coyote, and the physical transaction of goods and services is the ground, so when does Mr. Coyote look down, point his little sign, and plummet down?
When the maintenance costs of the illusion can no longer be sustained by the output of the real economy. Don't stop believin!
"TARPon" a large coastal fish, when if speared becomes "TARPooned"
19 of the largest have recently dislodged the TARPoon and are swimming more freely now?
I think any manufacturing blips this Qtr are inventory restocking. This is based on my experience where almost everyone of our customers emptied their warehouses in Q4. Orders are coming back in to fill the holes in stock that were created with a total shutdown for 3 months. A pickup in orders does not mean an automatic pickup in sales.
I wish we had acronymythsts toiling away that could come up with catchier ones, like KAOS or CONTROL or something that sounds cool...
(activating cone of silence)
Ghost, if your number of 2.4 million extra was right, then the WSJ number of 8.8 million would be too low by about 400,000.
Amazing what happens when you drop $14 trillion from a helicopter.
So we are expanding FDIC insurance to all non-bank holding companies.
So we are expanding FDIC insurance to all non-bank holding companies.
" Ghost-
Check out ZH's post on the increase of money paid out vs. the actual #'s.....pretty enlightening IMO."
Thanks I will check it out.
Here is another article, actually the same article I posted earlier, but with a bit different wording (I wonder how that works - some dude writes the article, then others get to alter the wording?).
Business & Technology | Jobless-benefit rolls post first dip since January | Seattle Times Newspaper
In any case, it brings up a good point, and one that points to data that would be even more interesting: "The report shows that job losses are easing after companies made deep cuts earlier this year. But it's not clear whether recipients of unemployment insurance are finding new jobs or simply using up all their benefits, which typically last 26 weeks."
How many people go from being on the rolls for 26 weeks, to being off? that is, how many people "fall off the end". Likewise, for the extended benefits, how many fall off the end?
reporting the overall number of people receiving 26 weeks of benefits is pretty useless, IMHO. In a recession like this, that number is pretty meaningless.
From the Department of Labor website, which is the source of unemployment claims -
"States reported 2,359,537 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending May 30, an increase of 102,946 from the prior week. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity. "
The 19 Moby Banks got TARPooned
@friardaddy - $14 T - where have I seen that number before? Oh yeah - CR had a similar number on the total lost value in assets since the peak. Coincidence?
@ghost - 300,000 increase in extended, 148,000 decrease in reg. benefits, unknown dropoff at the end of extended. 480,000 total, or higher, or lower?
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 10:22 am
"TARPon" a large coastal fish, when if speared becomes "TARPooned"
TARPon frequent the Caymans and other small islands in Central America but have been seen as far away as Northern Europe. They have gluttonous appetites and many have beached themselves inadvertently in their attempts to become "too big to fail". Scientists suspect they communicate with one another through an as-yet-undiscovered telepathic mechanism, and that many TARPon are in fact semi-autonomous parts of larger entities which span multiple locations. It is even hypothesized that the TARPon are all part of a single intelligent organism, though this view is considered radical by most expert marine biologists researching the species.
Just my opinion however something is going on with GE....look at the huge volume dumps of the last few days. Today it was down over 6% at one point....not getting much of a bounce.
The next bailout candidate or just the continuance of screw shorty?
Ciao
MS
never mind. all my numbers were wrong.
MS
On GE why do you think that the Treasury is giving the FED "oversight" of non-banks?
Bailout Baby
"33rd REIC"
After 33 weeks the hoi unempolloiment assignats stop coming and no job possibilities loom on the horizon, and no equity can be pulled out of the Excalibare that is your home.
Let them eat upside-down cake!
3.80 on the 10 year!
boy, I see I have a lot of catching up to do... thanks 1 Currency for the email on that Holiday in Cambodia Wild Girl Booze Cruise I posted on YouTube...
and to LawyerLiz, no, you're not chopped liver ... adding some beefcake for your benefit to version 2, along with a few new lassies...
how's this related to economics? Asian metrics tracking liquor industry sales...
busier earlier today going the Black Hat, or the Black Ranch or Black Halo or whomever was into gun talk... was out on a range
firing away on a tripod mounted machine gun... (no, the Thais haven't invaded...) the gun was a PK is a 7.62 mm, which is a general purpose machine gun designed in the Soviet Union and currently in production in Russia. Its NATO equivalents are the FN MAG, MG3, and M60 machine guns.
never underestimate that saying about boys and their guns - if there is a saying - what an adrenaline RUSH!
Maybe the reason the Fed allowed some banks to pay back the TARP is that they need it to bail out new firms? That way they don't have to ask for more money and can do as they please with the funds.
"ghostfaceinvestah" (please forward all of your personal data to the Federal Information Czar, ASAP).
The type of data you desire is not available to the working class. It is not in the best interests of this glorious Republic to publish such irrelevant information during this most important period of rebuilding.
tim-
yea I'm aware of that.....problem is the stock would probably fly if that were actually set in stone. You know book value argument and all....
Ciao
MS
Conference Board- "All in all, the behavior of the composite indexes continues to suggest that the recession that began in December 2007 will likely ease in the near term."
Conjure Bag says, "Stabilization."
http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/rainstorm.pdf
had an offer to go up to a mountainside and fire a rocket and blow something really big up... gotta keep something for the
future...
what does this have to do with finance and economics? the military-industrial complex, duh...
here's that video - yes LawyerLiz, there is a bit of beefcake, that is if you're a chicken hawk
YouTube - Holiday in Cambodia on a Happy Shake & Booze Cruise with Wild & Crazy Beautiful Girls
TARPon prepared in a whine sauce using the reduction method, has a bad aftertaste.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 10:45 am
TARPon prepared in a whine sauce, using the reduction method has a bad aftertaste.
Well played. A TARPon artificially preserved beyond its useful life also takes on a stench akin to a decaying pony or unicorn.
both reading and chewing gum backwards is tough...
OT/
my take on Iran...
on the defensive Ahmadinejad (I'm changing my name to to JeffNardinejad in his honor... after all, I shook hands with LBJ in '66, a world class vote rigger in his own right) pulled a Nikita '57 and bussed, flew and wagon carted in all of his supporters from the outlying oblasts, or whatever they call that political unit in Farsi - big difference between the two actions, Khrushchev flew in part bosses while Ahmadinejad carted in the useless and the feckless...
question is will Moussavi turn out to be a parallel to Dubček and even if put in power ultimately forced to modify or abandon his program of comprehensive change, that is, assuming he has one...
or a Gorbachev ?
"You left out rebuke and ridicule."
Scorn and contempt also.
Notice Timmay never misses a chance to tell us how "strong" the banks are...
A Bridge Too Farsi
mp-
Stock prices, interest rate spreads as a leading indicator........of prosperity!!!!!
Needed a god laugh this morning.
Ciao
MS
MS wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 11:21 am
"so when does Mr. Coyote look down, point his little sign, and plummet down?"
Well in reality it's already occurred.....the problem is this pesky thing called "price discovery". When you have a system that is dead-set against any of that you get this huge shifts of perception vs. reality.
The hardest thing I've had to explain to both myself and my acquaintences over the past 12 months is the agonizingly slow pace that a recessiong can unfold at. And, furthermore, they should find a bit of comfort in that thought as the alternative, a rapid correction to underlying fundamentals, will not only overshoot the mark as it inevitably does, but potentially could unfold faster than market participants could effectively react, thereby exacerbating the problem.
People can react to a normally functioning market, even if they're losing money...at least as far as I've seen. But they cannot react effectively to situations like Sept08, when the market loses all semblance of predicatability and hedging risk becomes impossible. And by trying to prevent this market from effectively discovering prices, governments and bankers have set us up for at least one or two more terrifying realignments. I am concerned for the coming fall...hopefully not turning into a very very long winter.
Does this resonate with your thoughts?
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 10:51 am
Notice Timmay never misses a chance to tell us how "strong" the banks are...
The stench of a corpse decaying is the most potent scent there is.
Saw Elvis the other day, man has he put on weight.
Is the LEI just an alphabetic transposition error?
"So I guess a follow-up question is "what next?" Obviously, the mental economy is Wile E. Coyote, and the physical transaction of goods and services is the ground, so when does Mr. Coyote look down, point his little sign, and plummet down?"
Capitulation historically precedes a bottom in a market. I do not think the "green shoots" coming from TPTB are a good sign, as they seem to have settled on avoiding a little short-term pain, in exchange for some long-term agony.
I think the Homer Simpson jumping the gorge on a skateboard, might be a better analogy, with the recent low being the bottom of the ramp and that were are now at the "Woo Hoo!"/green shoot point, where Homer thinks he is going to make it. The "Doh!" point is just ahead.
Dailymotion - The Simpsons _ Homer Jumps the Gorge - a Film & TV video
We are all informational Mr. Creosotes...
I couldn't eat another byte.
Keep eating, JD. Over-consumption is the key to the recovery.
Treasury-Altered Reality Plan (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 10:59 am
Keep eating, JD. Over-consumption is the key to the recovery.
Nature suggests this too shall pass.
noob-
yes but I will also add that Sept. 08' was an engineered event as well. It was not a mistake that the Fed drained billion of money and about 3 days later we had the fall-out of the "W's"
It will happen again and it will be yet another engineered event.
Ciao
MS
Once all the retail giants have gone BK, and the inventory restocking has finished, will there then be a "Bailout" of the retail sector using the TARP repayment money?
adding to Blackhalo's comment...most people have never seen capitulation.....the March low was not it. Until we see it (and you'll know it when you see it) we will continue to have the system create space in the index's for these type of events to occur.
Ciao
MS
Agree MS.
Until then.
--bh
+15 bps on the 10yr.
Green shot! The fed is just begging the consumer to ditch his debt so he can spend...today!
I think we'll see "Green Apple Splatters" soon.
--bh
Check out the future expectations numbers almost back to 2004!! Also the LEI* is curious if you look at the 80-82 peirod it was essentially a rolling bottom. now it is a "V". it is completley useless metric. Rinse wash repeat.
Confidence bubble but no velocity = FAIL
DeeperDepression (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 11:04 am
Once all the retail giants have gone BK, and the inventory restocking has finished, will there then be a "Bailout" of the retail sector using the TARP repayment money?
Continuously recycling the TARP funds could be an interesting undertaking. The healing TARP goes forth, enters in, and returns. We could even have the start of a religious movement here.
Continuously recycling the TARP funds could be an interesting undertaking. The healing TARP goes forth, enters in, and returns. We could even have the start of a religious movement here.
We could all meet in the street carrying a green shoot, wearing a green tarp and "tarpooning" any Banksters we happen to see.
For whatever reason, you almost almost spot TARPon, on the Lie-Word side of the good ship, USS Lollyprop
and "tarpooning" any Banksters we happen to see.
To be honest, I'd prefer the bankster cage-match approach, 2 bankers enter, one bankster leaves...only after one shanks the other, you know, we throw away the cage.
--bh
For whatever reason, you almost almost spot TARPon, on the Lie-Word side of the good ship, USS Lollyprop
Where our good Captain "TIMMAY THE BRAVE" has kept us on the even keel course towards the yellow brick road.
To be honest, I'd prefer the bankster cage-match approach, 2 bankers enter, one bankster leaves...only after one shanks the other, you know, we throw away the cage.
that is the reality show i would pay good money to see
Babble, welcome. I'm fairly new myself. I've learned more on this site in the last 3 months than I have after 5 years with a TBTF bank. The humor just punctuates everything.
Slick Dog (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 11:18 am
Babble, welcome. I'm fairly new myself. I've learned more on this site in the last 3 months than I have after 5 years with a TBTF bank. The humor just punctuates everything.
Punctuates everything and punctures some things...
We could even have the start of a religious movement here.
The TARP gives and it takes away.
Our TARP Who Artn't In My Account
Hallow Be Thy Dollars
Your Credit Come
Your Will Be Done
On My Account As It Is In Yours
Give Us Today Our Daily UE Check
And Forgive Our Debts
As We Try To Collect Debts Against Us
Fear Not Temptation
But Deliver Us From CR's Commetariat
For Thy Name Is The Power, The Wealth, And The Retirement Ever Lasting.
Amen.
UFC 86*
Ultimate Financier Championship
2 go into the octogone, and thanks to the miracle of leverage it looks like there are 86 moneymen beating the snot out of one-another...
*$44.95 pay-per-view
The good ship Lollypop was not a USS.
It was an American Airlines DC-2.
If we're using metaphors here, let's not mix them.
Shirley Temples are being served on the poop deck...
Not much in the way of response to the 'what's next' question, at least not seriously...
With +20% of the world's agriculture productivity in the US, close to 25% in North America, I see that as an important factor in what happens going forward.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 6/18/2009 - 11:19 am
We could even have the start of a religious movement here.
And Forgive Our Debts
And Extend Our Debts
I think that we should consider that the storm could be passing... Are the equity markets over bought, probably but the numbers, as mp has been pointing out over and over, are painting a better picture...
Must be objective or we'll all end up Sebs....
T's are getting crushed today. Ouch.... Bonds and Rates: Breaking News and Market Data from CNNMoney.com
.........
"2 go into the octogone, and thanks to the miracle of leverage it looks like there are 86 moneymen beating the snot out of one-another...
*$44.95 pay-per-view "
Fuld vs. Thain, would be a sell out.
mp -
Thanks for the link. I think Conjure is on to something; stabilization is to be preferred over some of the chaos of the recent past.
I still do not see a "V" and probably am more inclined to expect an "L" or a REALLY WIDE "W," but all of the reckless racing back-and-forth of some large and extremely heavy participants was in danger of completely capsizing the boat.
If we can stabilize, maybe we can start to row for shore. I hope so, because some of the weaker passengers look like they cannot hold out much longer.
and as for rebounds via consumer consumption. most of the traditional 'consumer consumption' bs is an import via china etc. we could start a form of recover in some sectors with out a major increase in consumer consumption of junk. take commercial construction for example... peaked in 2008 (late) thats not coming back till long after the economy is in full swing.... everything has a different phase / cycle time....
Fuld vs. Thain, would be a sell out.
Which is why I'd schedule it for halftime during the next SuperBowl. Genius.
--bh
"T's are getting crushed today."
And THAT, is why I am less than optimistic that we are done with the hurt yet. Not only will the high rates stifle any recovery, but the interest payments on the national debt is going to severely limit the options available. What is the debt service on < ten trillion if the 10-year goes to ~20%?
We'll get marketing on that. The consumer will learn to want what we actually make.
We offshored them to India, which is good because they're then nearer our manufacturing base in China.
Blackhalo - the rates will only effect future borrowing right... maybe it will be a huge incentive to stop borrowing.... ok now I'm just humoring myself...
.....................
Barry has a good write up on O's plan Obama Reform Plan Fails to Fix Whats Broken | The Big Picture
nades-
said it before and I'll say it again....you can have all the regs., reform, stipulations but they do no good unless they are enforced. This problem stemmed from enforcement not from a lack of regulations. AIG's regulator quit in 2007 because he saw what they had done. There were multiple regs. in place to curtail (not stop) AIG's practices. His boss chose to cool him off so he resigned.
BTW BR is just selling books nowadays.....his "insight" appeals to the "hurray henry" crowd IMO.
I'm not getting at you.....you know that.
Ciao
MS
Take back the trillions of $$$ given to the banks, who just sit on it and make it totally ineffective then start government incentive to create realistic industries that give employment and generate real productive income, some of which would hopefully be from exports.
Every other country, especially China and most of Europe have goverment incentives to protect it's industries. No matter what you call it it's a form of protectionism and its inevitable. We should stop being naive and take care of our own house. The only ones who win if we don't are the multinational corporations who don't care where they get their hand out.
good articles: Financial Opinions Updated Daily iamned.com
agree completely
Every other country, especially China and most of Europe have goverment incentives to protect it's industries. No matter what you call it it's a form of protectionism and its inevitable. We should stop being naive and take care of our own house. The only ones who win if we don't are the multinational corporations who don't care where they get their hand out.