Rumor is no reductions at all for faculty, staff get nailed with 10%. Faculty retain their step increases agreements and all merits remain capped for staff.
Yep. the system is still broken when the cuts are regressive.
I ran down some more information on the corn situation.
The ~4 weeks of corn left statement is basically correct. We've worked our way down from about 65 days of worldwide usage in storage after last year's harvest. He is projecting ending stocks - the result at the end of this year's harvest - at 55 days of worldwide usage.
This means that next year will be very sensitive to weather, to much rain, slow start to planting, anything like that becomes a major problem. Like, right now, there's a drought in Argentina that could wind up being a real problem.
Probably good to buy some December calls around March or so when volatility is low. Get a volatility play as well as a directional play. Note that the ETF DBA's corn component is December swaps, which is good.
Since the gov't storage programs were cut back, seems every couple of years there's a near miss in corn, beans or wheat. You have to figure it's only a matter of time before the sandpile gets too high and there are problems.
I really wish we had let C, GS & MS go bust. Why? I think they were a root cause of the debt and stock market stupidity that has financially ruined the lives of so many families.
Profiting off lies and fraud is illegal and immoral. Those firms and their employees should have to feel the pain they created.
GRRRRRR!
Systemically important to keep the ponzi debt sceme going. What a sham. GRRRRRR!
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 3:22 pm
Systemically important to keeping the ponzi debt sceme going. What a sham. GRRRRRR!
Ponzi debt must end!
Not if $700B in "principal" can control $12T in liabilities. Sick as it is, pull this off and the scam can continue assuming you can keep bringing more money into the scheme than you're forced to pay out.
I personally don't want those companies to go belly up since only the rank and file lose when that happens. I would not cry a tear, however, if the principals go to jail for eternity. It really surprises me how much hate companies attract in the US when the hatred should be directed to the morally bankrupt rats that seem to run them.
Paranoid R us (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 3:27 pm
I personally don't want those companies to go belly up since only the rank and file lose when that happens. I would not cry a tear, however, if the principals go to jail for eternity. It really surprises me how much hate companies attract in the US when the hatred should be directed to the morally bankrupt rats that seem to run them.
This is a cultural and systematic problem. It seems that the "morally bankrupt" / most ruthless are actually the fittest, as apparently an economic system at this stage of capitalism selects for and rewards these traits most of all.
At the end of the last up cycle, it was taking $6 of new debt to produce $1 dollar of new GDP.
No way can all that debt be paid back. Our entire eCONomy is polluted with toxic debt. The fed can't fix this because it can't be fixed. The fed will be lucky if they can string the bust out like Japan has been doing.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 3:33 pm
RIF,
At the end of the last up cycle, it was taking $6 of new debt to produce $1 dollar of new GDP.
No way can all that debt be paid back. Our entire eCONomy is polluted with toxic debt. The fed can't fix this because it can't be fixed. The fed will be lucky if they can string the bust out like Japan has been doing.
There is one deflationary force we have going for us: the rake always reduces the pool as the house takes its cut off the table. No, there is no fix that I can see, then again I lack a PhD in economics and the necessary academic pedigree to state this except as a layman. It's literally managing the money to spend (create from thin air) "principal" sufficient to make payments out and maintain the level of CONfidence necessary to assure that the scheme doesn't collapse. A debt-service payment plus some sort of risk premium on magical thinking.
A bill to amend title 31, United States Code, to reform the manner in which the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is audited by the Comptroller General of the United States and the manner in which such audits are reported, and for other purposes.
Comrade Coinz had the great suggestion of adding a glossary to the site, and it's now implemented.
Glossary terms found in comments now add a mouseover underline and a question mark cursor; hovering will show you the definition. Here's an example: Knurd!
We are going to try an experiment where all registered users are allowed to add or create glossary entries. Please notify me or CR about offending entries. If there is abuse, the offending user will be banned, no questions asked. It's also experimental because I'm not sure what the performance implications will be.
As for guidelines, brevity is good - remember your text is showing up in a tooltip. Any terms that show up frequently here are fair game. If you are describing a general term, give a short description, then add an anchor tag pointing to an external source, like Wikipedia. Funny is good, but don't let it get in the way. Please don't put ticker symbols in - I'm thinking about an alternative mechanism for them.
To work with the glossary, click on the Edit Glossary link at left of the page.
Comrade Coinz had the great suggestion of adding a glossary to the site, and it's now implemented.
Glossary terms found in comments now add a mouseover underline and a question mark cursor; hovering will show you the definition. Here's an example: Knurd!
This would be invaluable on some of the major Tanta post archives, if someone with the necessary expertise would be willing to put forth the effort on the lexicon of abbreviations and shorthand. It would certainly help out folks/fools like me with limited exposure to finance trading or related professions in the FIRE economy. I enjoy reading ZeroHedge but wear out google search on the acronym city that often litters posts there.
Quick question: how have the mortgage insurers like MBIA and Ambac lasted this long? Remember a year ago when they were on the verge of collapse and would bring everything down? Did they somehow stop hemorrhaging cash, or is it no longer worth anyone's time coming after them?
Hey, all y'all - here is another bit of fantastic functionality added by Ken - if you have been thinking about pitching in click on the Chip In! button at the top of the page on the left...
(OK commercial over - this has been an unsolicited testimonial blah blah blah)
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 3:57 pm
"This is a cultural and systematic problem. It seems that the "morally bankrupt" / most ruthless are actually the fittest...."
If true then we will tear ourselves to pieces. If...
We can hope, pavel, that enough people can discover there is more to humanity than that. When a model economic system works by treating human beings as pecuniarily-driven consumers with an aggregate collection of unconscious desires that can be stimulated to gain the desired effect, we should not be surprised that the institutions of that society act so as to make that ever more the reality (especially when it is such a tempting reality for all of us).
"how have the mortgage insurers like MBIA and Ambac lasted this long?"
As I recall, they were not selling much mortgage insurance during the boom because layered loans removed the requirement. So they probably aren't seeing as many claims as you would think.
Ken, is it possible to view all the contributions of a registered user through either the profile or something as simple as clicking on the registered name of the user? I haven't worked with the site beyond the comments features enough to have seen such a thing. If this ability doesn't exist, please consider this a feature request!
Yet another small businessman client hanging on by his fingernails, this time a hairdresser. He has been
successfully in business for over 10 years. . .
une 17 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama proposed the most sweeping overhaul of the U.S. financial regulatory system in 75 years, seeking to correct a “cascade of mistakes” that toppled major securities firms, froze credit markets and destroyed $26.4 trillion in stock market value around the world.
" ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 4:20 pm
.......
$700B on $12T is "only" 17x leverage.
$66B on that $700B is 10.6x
$66B on $12T is 182x ... now that's more familiar territory.
We stand as part of the most highly-leveraged hedge fund in history "
Are you sure? How leveraged was LTCM? I thought is was A_LOT.
Rumor is no reductions at all for faculty, staff get nailed with 10%. Faculty retain their step increases agreements and all merits remain capped for staff.
But Jane, I'm sure you understand that this is what it takes to retain the best and the brightest. BTW, did you know that we have a tenured professor here at UCSB who is paid $134K a year to give flute lessons?
I just talked to my jack of all trades handyman (sheetrock is his specialty - at least that is what the sign on the side of his truck sez). Last time I talked to him was around the first of may and he was optimistic. Now he's got ZERO in the pipeline and not so optimistic.
He has been successfully in business for over 10 years.
Don't worry, Liz, it's just the necessary "creative destructiion" at work.
Obviously there is a cheaper and better alternative to hairdressing from overseas.
All - Oddly enough, California muni bond funds were up a bit today, second day in a row - at least PWZ and VCITX were. The market does not seem to be nearly as worried about the current situation as it was in December. Yet?
@Highly leveraged hedge funds: of course, as the remaining equity goes to zero, the leverage goes to infinity... If you lend out $700B and get only $70B back, then lend that out and get only $7B back...
Pure magic -- the kind of magic that can only occur in an institution with a $20 billion budget and no accountability whatsoever. And oh yeah, they pay her husband $76K a year to teach the clarinet.
Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 4:39 pm
" ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 4:20 pm
.......
$700B on $12T is "only" 17x leverage.
$66B on that $700B is 10.6x
$66B on $12T is 182x ... now that's more familiar territory.
We stand as part of the most highly-leveraged hedge fund in history "
Are you sure? How leveraged was LTCM? I thought is was A_LOT.
I think somewhere in the 100x neighborhood right before it blew up. It got there "progressively" from 25:1
"ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 5:49 pm
...
$66B on $12T is 182x ... now that's more familiar territory.
We stand as part of the most highly-leveraged hedge fund in history "
Are you sure? How leveraged was LTCM? I thought is was A_LOT.
I think somewhere in the 100x neighborhood right before it blew up. It got there "progressively" from 25:1"
Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 4:50 pm
I think somewhere in the 100x neighborhood right before it blew up. It got there "progressively" from 25:1"
Sorry; my mistake then......
No worries; the thing to worry about is what's in front of us... Our country is a multi-trillion dollar hedge fund leveraged at rates never seen historically.
buzzsaw99 (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 4:54 pm
Let the fat bonuses roll!
a bonus fat-roll? hey, there were times when obesity was a status symbol! probably right before historic speculative bubble crashes, when people also have been known to start eating gold.
For most of history fat had a lot of survival value. Think nursing moms in starvation times. Why do you think we are so good at putting on weight eating almost anything
My son has a fancy clarinet made partly of some space age material. Heat and cold make a big
difference to wood clarinets. So maybe he should get a more 'spensive clarinet and get more salary.
I tightened up the OER definition. Sorry to whomever I edited. Feel free to edit my version down more... I still can't get over the fact that a quarter of the CPI is based on a mere survey ... history will show that the average homeowner was delusional about their home value, which is a far more readily available number than the expected rental rate -- so why should they know with any accuracy what rent their home would fetch, and why should that represent the cost of housing in the CPI? Sigh...
BTW, if California does get a bailout, it's going to be like the TARP, where the banks who got it wish they hadn't... California should grow a pair and clean up its own mess, instead of trying to indebt itself even further, to anyone. (Disclaimer: I live near San Francisco.)
B2, I went to school in the IE before people called it the IE. But that was mumbledy-three years ago, so I am as tuned to the zeitgeist (nicely put) as you are now. Damn I are old.
If you look at the debt-to-GDP, this boom is similar to the one in 1929, only bigger. The bust will be bigger in financial terms, though the safety net should cushion the social pain for awhile -- as long as the dollar lasts.
"California should grow a pair and clean up its own mess, instead of trying to indebt itself even further, to anyone."
It needs to grow 15 or 20 million pair. We lived in this dreamworld gone bad because Californias wanted low taxes AND big services, and didn't want anyone to tell them they couldn't have both. And now, when it's going to hell, it's all the fault of the "evil politicians."
Get real and take responsibility. Politicians are enablers, but you all were the ones with your heads in the sand.
i wish i had an answer for that - it is just a few hundred shares, not a big position.
i tried to catch knives in ung and rsx last year wayyy early - thank god for stops - but it is hard to resist at a quarter (or less) of recent highs, especially since it is only "politically correct" fossil fuel, and all non-fossil fuel attempts at energy are basically a joke IMO.
if this small play blows up and ung goes under 10 (which is, what 2.3 BTU?) it may become a longer term large hold.
california's political situation, and my personal observance of the entities involved (my extended family has probably saved a million dollar in taxes thanks to prop 13) is the main source of my general antipathy towards the political effects of the AARP/boomer/medicare axis of evil and what might seem to be an irrational dislike of that generation
funny you mention that - i tried to short UGA while going long UNG a couple of weeks ago, my broker didn't have it available. i agree. you can also hold DTO, though i'd rather short gasoline than crude, just because that ratio seems even nuttier.
Now Timmy can afford to send me a check...
Yeah, right. If you have the FED buy my used toilet paper for my mark to oort-cloud price, I'll gladly pay back that nickle you lent me....
$66bln out of $700bln in TARP money... ~1T in stimulus. $12T in total liabilities. This is a drop in the bucket.
Repay the TARP ...
Keep the loan guarantees ...
SWEET!
Do we believe our lying eyes or go with our gut feeling that what appears to be is not.
Rumor is no reductions at all for faculty, staff get nailed with 10%. Faculty retain their step increases agreements and all merits remain capped for staff.
Yep. the system is still broken when the cuts are regressive.
If the relapse do they get to come back to the well?
RockyR (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 3:13 pm
$66bln out of $700bln in TARP money... ~1T in stimulus. $12T in total liabilities. This is a drop in the bucket.
$700B on $12T is "only" 17x leverage.
$66B on that $700B is 10.6x
$66B on $12T is 182x ... now that's more familiar territory.
We stand as part of the most highly-leveraged hedge fund in history
Suntrust... not so good perhaps
Can I haz pony now?
I doubt they'll be sending those dollars to money heaven, so where do they go next?
Follow the free money, and all that...
We have certainly had a fast-pig news day.
I ran down some more information on the corn situation.
The ~4 weeks of corn left statement is basically correct. We've worked our way down from about 65 days of worldwide usage in storage after last year's harvest. He is projecting ending stocks - the result at the end of this year's harvest - at 55 days of worldwide usage.
This means that next year will be very sensitive to weather, to much rain, slow start to planting, anything like that becomes a major problem. Like, right now, there's a drought in Argentina that could wind up being a real problem.
Probably good to buy some December calls around March or so when volatility is low. Get a volatility play as well as a directional play. Note that the ETF DBA's corn component is December swaps, which is good.
Since the gov't storage programs were cut back, seems every couple of years there's a near miss in corn, beans or wheat. You have to figure it's only a matter of time before the sandpile gets too high and there are problems.
continuing from end of last thread
Hyperinflation: story of 9 failed currencies
Hyperinflation: The Story of 9 Failed Currencies | MintLife Blog | Personal Finance News & Advice
"Can I haz pony now?"
No, Ally has them all now.
I really wish we had let C, GS & MS go bust. Why? I think they were a root cause of the debt and stock market stupidity that has financially ruined the lives of so many families.
Profiting off lies and fraud is illegal and immoral. Those firms and their employees should have to feel the pain they created.
GRRRRRR!
Systemically important to keep the ponzi debt sceme going. What a sham. GRRRRRR!
Ponzi debt must end!
Wells Fargo hasn't repaid yet? But they INSISTED they didn't need the money in the first place.
Should be interesting if some of them come crawling back later this year. You know, if we don't have a quick recovery and all.
Wells Fargo hasn't repaid yet? But they INSISTED they didn't need the money in the first place.
And then they flunked the stress test. Of course they passed Buffett's stress test.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 3:22 pm
Systemically important to keeping the ponzi debt sceme going. What a sham. GRRRRRR!
Ponzi debt must end!
Not if $700B in "principal" can control $12T in liabilities. Sick as it is, pull this off and the scam can continue assuming you can keep bringing more money into the scheme than you're forced to pay out.
I personally don't want those companies to go belly up since only the rank and file lose when that happens. I would not cry a tear, however, if the principals go to jail for eternity. It really surprises me how much hate companies attract in the US when the hatred should be directed to the morally bankrupt rats that seem to run them.
Anyone heard or seen Paulson since the day he slipped out of site.
Out of site? ha.
Anyone heard or seen Paulson since the day he slipped out of site.
Who?
Paranoid R us (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 3:27 pm
I personally don't want those companies to go belly up since only the rank and file lose when that happens. I would not cry a tear, however, if the principals go to jail for eternity. It really surprises me how much hate companies attract in the US when the hatred should be directed to the morally bankrupt rats that seem to run them.
This is a cultural and systematic problem. It seems that the "morally bankrupt" / most ruthless are actually the fittest, as apparently an economic system at this stage of capitalism selects for and rewards these traits most of all.
RIF,
At the end of the last up cycle, it was taking $6 of new debt to produce $1 dollar of new GDP.
No way can all that debt be paid back. Our entire eCONomy is polluted with toxic debt. The fed can't fix this because it can't be fixed. The fed will be lucky if they can string the bust out like Japan has been doing.
Et tu, Eddie Bauer? The summer sale catalog just arrived!
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 3:33 pm
RIF,
At the end of the last up cycle, it was taking $6 of new debt to produce $1 dollar of new GDP.
No way can all that debt be paid back. Our entire eCONomy is polluted with toxic debt. The fed can't fix this because it can't be fixed. The fed will be lucky if they can string the bust out like Japan has been doing.
There is one deflationary force we have going for us: the rake always reduces the pool as the house takes its cut off the table. No, there is no fix that I can see, then again I lack a PhD in economics and the necessary academic pedigree to state this except as a layman. It's literally managing the money to spend (create from thin air) "principal" sufficient to make payments out and maintain the level of CONfidence necessary to assure that the scheme doesn't collapse. A debt-service payment plus some sort of risk premium on magical thinking.
Audit the Federal Reserve
Contact your Senators
Phone, Fax, Email and Letter !
Fed Reps by Zip
C-SPAN | Capitol Hill, The White House and National Politics
Tell them YES on S. 604 ...
Don't let them water down the House Bill ...
Want Answers? ... Let's get some real facts !
"Should be interesting if some of them come crawling back later this year."
If any of them need that, they should get a Friday afternoon visit from Sheila's team.
S.604
Federal Reserve Sunshine Act of 2009
A bill to amend title 31, United States Code, to reform the manner in which the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is audited by the Comptroller General of the United States and the manner in which such audits are reported, and for other purposes.
current 111st session of congress
Anyone heard or seen Paulson since the day he slipped out of site.
His son wants a taxpayer-funded soccer stadium in Portland. Google for details.
@MaryAnn - Paulson's busy counting the money in his 'blind' trust. should take him a decade or two.
So if you get pigged on a particularly lengthy thread, have you been long-pigged?
@DS - maybe it's just a hint to cut out the literary pork.
Comrade Coinz had the great suggestion of adding a glossary to the site, and it's now implemented.
Glossary terms found in comments now add a mouseover underline and a question mark cursor; hovering will show you the definition. Here's an example: Knurd!
We are going to try an experiment where all registered users are allowed to add or create glossary entries. Please notify me or CR about offending entries. If there is abuse, the offending user will be banned, no questions asked. It's also experimental because I'm not sure what the performance implications will be.
As for guidelines, brevity is good - remember your text is showing up in a tooltip. Any terms that show up frequently here are fair game. If you are describing a general term, give a short description, then add an anchor tag pointing to an external source, like Wikipedia. Funny is good, but don't let it get in the way. Please don't put ticker symbols in - I'm thinking about an alternative mechanism for them.
To work with the glossary, click on the Edit Glossary link at left of the page.
Thank you again, Ken.
Keep up the excellent work!
Please explain what a mouseover underline is.
Also, question mark cursor.
Also, hovering.
"This is a cultural and systematic problem. It seems that the "morally bankrupt" / most ruthless are actually the fittest...."
If true then we will tear ourselves to pieces. If...
lix - puy your mouse pointer over the sample word. Should answer your questions.
lawyerliz,
Put your mouse over the word Knurd and leave it there for a few seconds.
kcoop (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 3:55 pm
Comrade Coinz had the great suggestion of adding a glossary to the site, and it's now implemented.
Glossary terms found in comments now add a mouseover underline and a question mark cursor; hovering will show you the definition. Here's an example: Knurd!
This would be invaluable on some of the major Tanta post archives, if someone with the necessary expertise would be willing to put forth the effort on the lexicon of abbreviations and shorthand. It would certainly help out folks/fools like me with limited exposure to finance trading or related professions in the FIRE economy. I enjoy reading ZeroHedge but wear out google search on the acronym city that often litters posts there.
Ken,
It would help if glossary words has some visual cue that you could see before you moved your mouse over the word....
@liz - note to myself - check hand position on keyboard, and stop doing two things at once.
Quick question: how have the mortgage insurers like MBIA and Ambac lasted this long? Remember a year ago when they were on the verge of collapse and would bring everything down? Did they somehow stop hemorrhaging cash, or is it no longer worth anyone's time coming after them?
Hey, all y'all - here is another bit of fantastic functionality added by Ken - if you have been thinking about pitching in click on the Chip In! button at the top of the page on the left...
(OK commercial over - this has been an unsolicited testimonial blah blah blah)
Yes and no. I put that in at first, but found it highly distracting to the text. I'm trying to keep the site really readable.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 3:57 pm
"This is a cultural and systematic problem. It seems that the "morally bankrupt" / most ruthless are actually the fittest...."
If true then we will tear ourselves to pieces. If...
We can hope, pavel, that enough people can discover there is more to humanity than that. When a model economic system works by treating human beings as pecuniarily-driven consumers with an aggregate collection of unconscious desires that can be stimulated to gain the desired effect, we should not be surprised that the institutions of that society act so as to make that ever more the reality (especially when it is such a tempting reality for all of us).
"how have the mortgage insurers like MBIA and Ambac lasted this long?"
As I recall, they were not selling much mortgage insurance during the boom because layered loans removed the requirement. So they probably aren't seeing as many claims as you would think.
how have the mortgage insurers like MBIA and Ambac lasted this long?
Settlements to the securities holders against outstanding guarantees.
Well, Ken, a good start would be for the words BAC, C, WFC, JPM, etc. to display "Zombie Bank" when you mouse over them. Just a suggestion.
Cool.
I've added a coupla definitions.
"Settlements to the securities holders against outstanding guarantees."
Still cash consumptive, no? How are their reserves looking?
Ken, is it possible to view all the contributions of a registered user through either the profile or something as simple as clicking on the registered name of the user? I haven't worked with the site beyond the comments features enough to have seen such a thing. If this ability doesn't exist, please consider this a feature request!
Used toilet paper for an oort cloud price. . . priceless.
Why don'tcha post more Misean?
Let's see - is there a tag for CR yet?
guess not
I'm hoping to solve that problem in a way I think you will like. I've had that pan in the fire for awhile now. We'll see if anything comes of it.
We are going to try an experiment where all registered users are allowed to add or create glossary entries.
Glossary is missing "Nemo".
Also "PPT".
In horse racing, "grasshopper bites" is what the 4th, 5th and 6th place finisher owners receive for their performance, a pittance.
This TARPville 9 is strictly minor league stuff, grasshopper.
Also EOTWAWKI.
Apparently everyone is too busy playing with the new toy...
rattle, rattle
Yet another small businessman client hanging on by his fingernails, this time a hairdresser. He has been
successfully in business for over 10 years. . .
I wasn't trained to be a shrink.
Ken should work for the gov't. See how effectively he distracts the masses?
my nat gas play looks like it is coming in.... yay
You tell me now?
//I wasn't trained to be a shrink.//
I'd like to see a few more of those nail salons hanging on by their fingers, oh the toxicity!
Except for you Luci.
He prolly does nails too.!
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 4:26 pm
Except for you Luci.
LOL (apologies for the useless post but... LOL)
PPT and EOTWAWKI added to glossary
Hey, that worked
better than I expected.
@Nemo - you added 'that worked' without adding a definition?
never mind, Nemo. Why the link, though?
Ménage à TARP
What fun!! Thanks, Ken. I amended someone's def of tarp.
Nemo is first in the definitions.
never mind, Nemo. Why the link, though?
Just providing a reference to the not-quite-alphabetized glossary.
B2:
What are you referring to?
I've been working.
NW
Intentional sociopathic behavior is not a mistake!
Obama Lays Out ‘Sweeping Overhaul’ of Financial Rules (Update3)
Obama Lays Out ‘Sweeping Overhaul’ of Financial Rules (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
By Robert Schmidt and Hans Nichols
une 17 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama proposed the most sweeping overhaul of the U.S. financial regulatory system in 75 years, seeking to correct a “cascade of mistakes” that toppled major securities firms, froze credit markets and destroyed $26.4 trillion in stock market value around the world.
HH,
Curious as to your anticipated holding time...
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
That is wild. Funny thing is, if you look further down the page, you'll see another definition of Nemo, in alphabetical order.
Hmmm...
Deflationary Jane's comments about the rumor mill at the UC-school for which she works.
heh nice hack Nemo
the "space" character is invisible in HTML, but not ASCII. but the glossary wouldn't be right in other way
Is that like the cascading cross defaults? Is that what would be happening now, without the bail-outs.
Cascading cross defaults a result of cascading mistakes?
" ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 4:20 pm
.......
$700B on $12T is "only" 17x leverage.
$66B on that $700B is 10.6x
$66B on $12T is 182x ... now that's more familiar territory.
We stand as part of the most highly-leveraged hedge fund in history "
Are you sure? How leveraged was LTCM? I thought is was A_LOT.
Rumor is no reductions at all for faculty, staff get nailed with 10%. Faculty retain their step increases agreements and all merits remain capped for staff.
But Jane, I'm sure you understand that this is what it takes to retain the best and the brightest. BTW, did you know that we have a tenured professor here at UCSB who is paid $134K a year to give flute lessons?
I was gonna define A-nemo as the opposite of nemo, to wit, last, but decided not.
Very nice,Nemo. Gonna have to remember now never to put a space before your name.
Wow. Must be some flute.
are we still using kermit and elmo?
Should we have an entry for "helicopter"?
How about "Timmay"?
1949: Marshall Plan
2009: Martial Plan?
has anyone looked at the sacbee salary database site? sort by ucd or your other favorite institution.
I just talked to my jack of all trades handyman (sheetrock is his specialty - at least that is what the sign on the side of his truck sez). Last time I talked to him was around the first of may and he was optimistic. Now he's got ZERO in the pipeline and not so optimistic.
He has been successfully in business for over 10 years.
Don't worry, Liz, it's just the necessary "creative destructiion" at work.
Obviously there is a cheaper and better alternative to hairdressing from overseas.
Ken - Love the new system!
All - Oddly enough, California muni bond funds were up a bit today, second day in a row - at least PWZ and VCITX were. The market does not seem to be nearly as worried about the current situation as it was in December. Yet?
@Highly leveraged hedge funds: of course, as the remaining equity goes to zero, the leverage goes to infinity... If you lend out $700B and get only $70B back, then lend that out and get only $7B back...
Wow. Must be some flute.
Pure magic -- the kind of magic that can only occur in an institution with a $20 billion budget and no accountability whatsoever. And oh yeah, they pay her husband $76K a year to teach the clarinet.
Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 4:39 pm
" ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 4:20 pm
.......
$700B on $12T is "only" 17x leverage.
$66B on that $700B is 10.6x
$66B on $12T is 182x ... now that's more familiar territory.
We stand as part of the most highly-leveraged hedge fund in history "
Are you sure? How leveraged was LTCM? I thought is was A_LOT.
I think somewhere in the 100x neighborhood right before it blew up. It got there "progressively" from 25:1
"ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 5:49 pm
...
$66B on $12T is 182x ... now that's more familiar territory.
We stand as part of the most highly-leveraged hedge fund in history "
Are you sure? How leveraged was LTCM? I thought is was A_LOT.
I think somewhere in the 100x neighborhood right before it blew up. It got there "progressively" from 25:1"
Sorry; my mistake then......
I guess I shave my head, send my locks overseas, and get them back as a wig.
Nooope.
"they pay her husband $76K a year to teach the clarinet."
That makes perfect sense. The clarinet, after all, is only made of wood - an inferior material. He should've taken up the Sousaphone or something....
Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 4:50 pm
I think somewhere in the 100x neighborhood right before it blew up. It got there "progressively" from 25:1"
Sorry; my mistake then......
No worries; the thing to worry about is what's in front of us... Our country is a multi-trillion dollar hedge fund leveraged at rates never seen historically.
Let the fat bonuses roll!
buzzsaw99 (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 4:54 pm
Let the fat bonuses roll!
a bonus fat-roll? hey, there were times when obesity was a status symbol! probably right before historic speculative bubble crashes, when people also have been known to start eating gold.
For most of history fat had a lot of survival value. Think nursing moms in starvation times. Why do you think we are so good at putting on weight eating almost anything
My son has a fancy clarinet made partly of some space age material. Heat and cold make a big
difference to wood clarinets. So maybe he should get a more 'spensive clarinet and get more salary.
So I go from a bit plump to super sexy in one easy starvation period?
There is a book called the Great Wave, which describes ancient booms and busts.
Our boom is completely out of scale with previous booms, so I guess the bust will
be too.
Suggestion for Glossary:
Omit things like "AFAIK", "IMO", "WTF", "FTW", etc. Anything that is generic Internet chat-speak is a waste of space.
Keep it technical and/or local to CR.
Just MHO.
"Inland Empire" is completely blank. Or was that the point?
I had trouble with AFAIK, which is why I added it; but if others consider it dead weight, trim away.
Latvia - the price of being saved:
BBC NEWS | Business | Latvia minister quits over cuts
"Keep it technical and/or local to CR."
Agreed.
Jeezum - I just agreed with a fish....
i put "inland empire" because i had never heard the term pre-CR. But then i thought it best for someone tuned to the SoCal zeitgeist to fill it in.
I dunno, if there's 5 letters or more, may be ok to add it.
I tightened up the OER definition. Sorry to whomever I edited. Feel free to edit my version down more... I still can't get over the fact that a quarter of the CPI is based on a mere survey ... history will show that the average homeowner was delusional about their home value, which is a far more readily available number than the expected rental rate -- so why should they know with any accuracy what rent their home would fetch, and why should that represent the cost of housing in the CPI? Sigh...
BTW, if California does get a bailout, it's going to be like the TARP, where the banks who got it wish they hadn't... California should grow a pair and clean up its own mess, instead of trying to indebt itself even further, to anyone. (Disclaimer: I live near San Francisco.)
I just did "monoline", not sure it's helpful or not.
B2, I went to school in the IE before people called it the IE. But that was mumbledy-three years ago, so I am as tuned to the zeitgeist (nicely put) as you are now. Damn I are old.
OK somebody put up "bankerdome".
If you look at the debt-to-GDP, this boom is similar to the one in 1929, only bigger. The bust will be bigger in financial terms, though the safety net should cushion the social pain for awhile -- as long as the dollar lasts.
Somebody should define bank. I myself feel unworthy to define it due to the ocean of snark
which would be necessary to do it properly.
I are older. Pavel is oldest!
Damn. Pigged.
"California should grow a pair and clean up its own mess, instead of trying to indebt itself even further, to anyone."
It needs to grow 15 or 20 million pair. We lived in this dreamworld gone bad because Californias wanted low taxes AND big services, and didn't want anyone to tell them they couldn't have both. And now, when it's going to hell, it's all the fault of the "evil politicians."
Get real and take responsibility. Politicians are enablers, but you all were the ones with your heads in the sand.
EE,
i wish i had an answer for that - it is just a few hundred shares, not a big position.
i tried to catch knives in ung and rsx last year wayyy early - thank god for stops - but it is hard to resist at a quarter (or less) of recent highs, especially since it is only "politically correct" fossil fuel, and all non-fossil fuel attempts at energy are basically a joke IMO.
if this small play blows up and ung goes under 10 (which is, what 2.3 BTU?) it may become a longer term large hold.
"....California should grow a pair and clean up its own mess"
+100 and a second.
"We lived in this dreamworld gone bad"
california's political situation, and my personal observance of the entities involved (my extended family has probably saved a million dollar in taxes thanks to prop 13) is the main source of my general antipathy towards the political effects of the AARP/boomer/medicare axis of evil and what might seem to be an irrational dislike of that generation
HH, I keep thinking a good trade would be long NG over short oil here. The ratio really ought to narrow.
Do I have the sack to do it 90 days away from hurricane season, though?
funny you mention that - i tried to short UGA while going long UNG a couple of weeks ago, my broker didn't have it available. i agree. you can also hold DTO, though i'd rather short gasoline than crude, just because that ratio seems even nuttier.
Just looking at it naively, oil continuous contract just broke a two-month trendline with support in the 50s.
NG continuous contract looks to me like a reverse H&S, neckline about 4.5, on a breakout, measures to, call it 5.80.
Just seems like a good risk/reward, something that won't get you killed and a decent chance to win on both sides of the pair.
4schzl - I did my grad work @ UCSB....
She prolly lives in a shack over in Isla Vista