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In the year 2000... in the year 2000...
In the year 2000; a major component of CPI will be "hourly worker's equivalent salary".
From the last thread: Anyone have a quick link to back out OER from the CPI? TIA.
Wow, that's service!
The NHMC "apartment tightness" index? CR chart porn ranks high on the YLSP tightness index...
Glad to see my request on OER turn into a post.
Thanks CR
From todays writing on the world that awaits us all...maybe.
sample
...Sprinting across the fading white crosswalk lines. Houses in sight. Silence except for the birds. It didn't feel real to me. It was like we were playing war. Yet, I knew by now that the appearances of yesterdays prosperity and peace were leftover illusions of an earlier time. The reality was that half these houses we passed were trashed inside, filled with human excretement and graffiti. The nice McMansion behind the trees could hold a pack of feral boomers waiting like spiders for the unaware.
the rest: afterthecrash.net
So a quarter of CPI is based on wishful thinking? We're off to see the Wizard...
CPI with owners equivalent rent replaced by Case Shiller. Not my favorite way of doing the calculation, but still interesting. Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: CS-CPI Negative 5.0% Third Straight Month
Anyone remember a year or 2 ago when Paulsen/Bernanke were using up all of their "bullets" to stave off the crises? What type of ammunition do they have left? I guess they are trying to make up their own 4-letter-acronym bullets; but that doesn't seem to be working... so the only other option is the "freedom of the press" so to speak?
I would like to encourage future survey respondents to all answer either one of the two following ways:
a) My house would rent for $1.00
b) My house would rent for $1,000,000,000,000.00
@SIG: Very interesting plot. CS-CPI seems to be more reflective of my personal experience as a renter, fwiw.
some investor guy, my pleasure.
Hey ... bloomberg has a story on those probably fake bonds: Suitcase With $134 Billion Puts Dollar on Edge: William Pesek ROFLOL.
best to all.
reading the pandemic flu document this morning. doj did a this is only a test emergency call list for essential personnel stuff...
working remotely from home is one thing, but localities required to quarentine will have serious problems if they happen to be metropolitan areas...I'm thinking lack of local food supply during the quarentine-your-community phase.
anyway, at this point it's more fear-shaping and fear-deflection from other problems.
And yes, on rent, home-owners have not been pried of their hopes and dreams and made to see them for base illusions.
--bh
You'll know they're out of ammo when they annouce the Yearly Lending Sponsorship Program.
Pesek's article referenced Karl Denninger.... yikes
Pesek's article referenced Karl Denninger.... yikes
It has been out since yesterday. He does raise the same questions that were already covered here.
Those bond guys were just a couple of hyper-inflationistas a little ahead of their time.
Browsing the NMHC site: in their 2008 annual report they take credit for:
- Blocking new homeownership incentives
- Secured and retained a ban on seller-financed "charity" downpayment programs
- Protected the industry from controversial immigration measures
- Helped firms compete against "shadow" rentals with a new consumer brochure
Don't you just love the special interest lobby?
Around here, the large apartment towers are all corporate owned/managed. Rents have been dropping by large amounts, but I'm pretty sure it's not being fully reflected in these numbers.
My landlord was pretty adamant about putting the original "asking" rent onto the lease paperwork and including a lease rider that specifies a monthly concession that brings the cost down to the agreed monthly price. I'm positive that this is a way to game the numbers that they have to show their investors, but it seems like it would also be gaming these statistics as well. From what I have gathered, this is extremely common in the downtown Chicago market (it's also new - my previous lease included concessions, but they were incorporated into the lease paperwork as you would expect).
Is this prevalent elsewhere?
Those Japanese guys definitely had the "first dollar" advantage... in the coming hyper-inflatoin period (well after this deflation is complete).
For what it's worth, UK RPI uses a cost approach, and it's more volatile, and probably a much better representation of what people are actually paying for "housing".
I have serious doubts about OER actually capturing rent declines. In the entire history of OER, there hasn't been a time when it went below +1.9%. In the last housing bust in the early 90's, it went from 6% to 3%. There is far too much bias in asking a homeowner what their property is worth to a renter. They are not renters, and they do not know the rental market. Does the BLS ask cattle ranchers for egg prices?
blackhat (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 10:56 am
reading the pandemic flu document this morning. doj did a this is only a test emergency call list for essential personnel stuff...
Sorta OT -- I've had it, shook it off after a day of body aches. A friend in poor condition got it and was pretty sick. It's an ass-whipper of a flu but it ain't Captain Trips or anything.
Oh, a mythical animal, thy name is OER.
As a property manager in Phoenix Metro, I can tell you that rents are dropping. Rents from 2005 to 2009 are down about 30% for single family, condo and town houses.
All renters are looking for a deal and will not rent without one. All the owners are either accepting lower rents or the properties are sitting vacant.
These same properties are underwater and the rents have not covered the mortgage for at least a year. These properties will go back to the bank. On the other hand, new investors are buying the super cheap REOs as rentals rather than flippers.
"What do you think people would rent your place for..."
ROTFLOL ! ! !!
Seems very scientific to me....
They should also ask them "What do you think think your house would sell for..." If they wanted a real laugh....
YLSP (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 11:01 am
- Helped firms compete against "shadow" rentals with a new consumer brochure
Don't you just love the special interest lobby?
Mancur Olson would be proud.
We've defeated the little old lady renting out her back room! Victory for capital concentration!
Why don't they ask "What would you pay to rent the house you are now living in?"
Big differance between what you will pay vs what you want to charge.
@Daddyo - maybe they should ask how much the neighbor's houses would rent for.
@BR - nice lit. reference on the Captain Tripps.
Pimco commentary, not new information but nice summary
PIMCO - Viewpoints El Erian 6-15-09 Business as Usual
Emergency test rehearsals are more important than i think people give them credit for.
Essentially, there is a limit on the amount of communication any network can support. For large numbers of nodes, it is much, much smaller, than the total amount of communication the nodes, sorry, people are capable of generating. Especially when they're in a panic.
Mostly what happens in disasters is that the amount of communication that needs to be performed shoots through the roof, as people sort out the situation and try to organise a response. That can easily overload the available capacity, even in the situations where the emergency itself hasn't taken out one or more of the available communication networks.
A lot of emergency training is actually an attempt to pre-compute at least some of that, to avoid the problem.
-- w
Speaking of malls... CR, I don't know if you would find this front page material, but this ongoing saga in Syracuse over the giant DestiNY USA project may be of interest... Citi is refusing to release promised loans to a gargantuan Mall of America-type project that many people have long suspected was all about snake oil. Mall isn't paying its construction crews and it has no tenants. Citi trying to wash its hands of the whole thing. Emblematic of boondoggles and flimflammery about CRE, if you ask me.
Bank says Destiny USA a "failure"; developer says it's not | News from The Post-Standard -
Also, a story about a similar giant dead mall in China.
Mall of misfortune - The National Newspaper
yeah, I know, dead malls are not interesting to Californians I'm sure, but it cracks me up how the Syracuse mall and the China mall were promising the same crap (in the same sort of dreary industrial cities). Truly nothing new under the sun.
LOL.... DestiNY USA
Page 8 of the release puts the weight of OER at 24.4% of CPI-U, where are you getting 23.8% from CR?
There is far too much bias in asking a homeowner what their property is worth to a renter. They are not renters, and they do not know the rental market. Does the BLS ask cattle ranchers for egg prices?
It's worse than that. It's more like asking chicken farmers for egg prices.
Dirk,
hearing anything about unemployment numbers? Enjoy your updates!
Ot-finance application volume for vehicles is trending 4-5% down this month..
It will rent for what some one else will pay and not what you think.
Fed buys $7 billion in Treasury's
Denninger pretty much nails it as per usual.
The Market Ticker
forgot what a joke the methodology on this CPI component was - thanks for the chuckle
or as people call it... DENSITY USA...
Seriously, you have to wonder what bank in their right mind would have put up that kind of money on this project... or what city in its right mind would give it a 30 yr tax break... but then again, who said anyone was in their right minds for the last 10 years?
"It's more like asking chicken farmers for egg prices. "
no, it is more like asking urban vegetarians who never see cows for cattle prices
It is slighly OT B_R,
Little ones had 103+ fevers but seem to be recovering fine.
What was interesting was the quarentine scenario. 6-8 weeks is the typical "wave" duration and federal/state/local mandate will be sending kids and people home who are sick, carying for someon sick, or possibly exposed to someone sick. The estimation of 600Billion impact to US economy is interesting to say the least, if you assumed a worst case 30% of the population getting sick and not making mortgage payments for 60 days. Then again, we might actually find out that is exactly what is already happening, flu regardless, and the banks will just fine --in fact, exceeding the worse expectations--slightly--with fudge.
--bh
destiny usa's real-time construction camera. umm, it's empty.
Destiny USA Jobsite
@ Hack
Or asking waiters for penny stock tips.
OER - just another example of mark to mirage accounting.
Dirk,
hearing anything about unemployment numbers? Enjoy your updates!
Ot-finance application volume for vehicles is trending 4-5% down this month..
No more data until Thurs AM when inital claims come out. However , the IP and CU numbers did not leave me hopeful. Any one else struck by the silence over those numbers. The NYT had only one line in an otherwise unlrelated article on the IP number, and nothing on CU. I thought they should have rated a seperate article on the first business page, above the fold. Serious effort going on to downplay and hide negative news, and spin the green shoots.
warlock
+10
Or B_R,
to put the tin-foil back on,
A fall/winter pandemic will give us the bank-holiday we need without having to declare it a bank holiday.
--bh
I guess "dead mall" is not the right term for these... "stillborn megamall" maybe?
But again, stillborn projects are hardly news any more.
Pretty little bounce off the S&P's 200DMA at around 908-ish.
House of Morgan trying hard to defend it.
All praises to the Lord of the Flies, the all powerful "O".
Soon to be posted on Zacks.com:
The release of the CPI confirms what the PPI showed yesterday, that inflation is not a significant problem at the moment. In May, consumer prices rose just 0.1% on both a headline and on a core basis, as falling food prices offset increases in gasoline prices. Seasonal adjustment helped keep the reported increase in energy prices under control. The seasonally adjusted increase in gasoline prices was 3.1% for the month. What people actually paid at the pump jumped 9.6%. However, the effect of higher inflation readings a year ago, combined with the collapse of commodity prices last fall left the year over year headline CPI with its biggest decline since 1950, falling 1.3%. The index for housing fell by 0.1% for the third straight month, and for the fourth time in seven months, the other three were unchanged. This was largely due to a decline in household energy prices. Note that natural gas prices have not come close to keeping up with the rise in oil prices. This has some interesting implications for the oil service sector. Firms that are tied to exploration and development of oil, like the deep water drillers Transocean (RIG) and Diamond Offshore (DO) are much better positioned than the land drillers such as Grey Wolf (GW) that are more tied natural gas drilling.
Medical Care inflation continued on its merry way rising 0.3% for the month and up 3.2% over the last year. That is 4.7% ahead of overall inflation and 1.6% ahead of core inflation (more if you stripped out medical inflation from the rest of core inflation). Medical Care, despite making up over 16% of GDP only has a 6.4% weighting in the CPI. Education and communication prices increased by 0.3% for the month and are up 3.2% over the last year, mostly due to higher tuition costs. It is worth noting that Health and Education is the only area where employment has been steadily increasing over the last year. Medical inflation consistently running well ahead of overall inflation is a serious problem, and has to be tackled soon. If we do not get a serious health care reform bill passed this year, and the problem is kicked down the road for another 16 years, the bankruptcy of the entire country can not be ruled out.
Housing is by far the most important influence on the overall CPI, totaling 43.4% of the total, but that includes total costs to run the house. Owners equivalent rent (OER) has a 24.4% weighting in the index while regular rent paid to a landlord has a 6.0% weighting. OER is a bit of a strange duck in that it is based on a survey of homeowners about what they think it would cost them to rent an identical house across the street. Since not many homeowners spend their time checking out what rental rates are for homes in their neighborhood every month, that part of the CPI needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
The major take away from the report is that inflation remains under control and that the Fed is under no immediate pressure to raise rates. With more overall slack in the system than at any previous point since the end of WWII, it will be hard for inflation to gain traction. There is simply no way for the wage side of a wage price spiral to take hold. On the other hand, enormous quantities of money have been pumped into the system to compensate for the falling velocity of money. If that velocity were to pick up, it will be very hard for the Fed to drain the liquidity out of the system quickly. We could go from near zero inflation to very high inflation seemingly overnight. That however is unlikely to happen this year, but remains a serious danger for mid 2010 and beyond.
Agree Dirk.
Good analysis.
--bh
back out of FAZ for the moment... still holding small amounts of TZA, FXP, DBA, UNG, TBT (which i've also been selling a bit of lately)
St Louis Fed on Interest rate speculation
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20090701/mtpub.pdf
C.C ZeroHedge
shill, the Fed won't raise rates this year ... I think some of those Taylor rule calculations are way too high (I think the Taylor rule suggests a negative Fed funds rate right now)
best wishes
If they wanted an easy way to drain it, the Fed could establish a separate, nonconvertible domestic-only currency, maybe backed by Fed debt issuance. All your dollars are converted to Bernanke Bucks (think "blocked marks" from the Weimar Republic). The Fed spends a year playing its bullshit amateur psychology games to manipulate your inflation expectations. While it does so, it must sit on the paper commodity futures markets with real dollars.
Whenever it's deemed appropriate, it then converts your BBs back at whatever rate it wants to. Excess liquidity all gone.
The big monkey wrench in this plan is, if I were a currency trader, I'd go for the jugular the second I saw it start.
warlock (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 11:12 am
Emergency test rehearsals are more important than i think people give them credit for.
I am a student of command/control, obviously.
People who are interested in this, I have some good recommendations.
Ringed in Steel by Michael Mahler. Excellent book of a staff officer's rotation through Nam in 67/68. The David Drake novel Rolling Hot is a total uncredited steal of this book if you are a military sci-fi fan. It's good for its detailed coverage of staff challenges, but there's a very good segment where he becomes XO of the 25th Infantry Division's (totally dysfunctional) armored cavalry squadron and details particularly their failed response to a very serious ambush.
Dragons at War: Land Battle in the Desert by Dan Bolger. Company commander's account of his spastic mech infantry battalion's cruddy NTSC rotation. They were some confused mofos. When I was a wee sprat and read it, I was disappointed because I wanted a thrilling tale of military exploits. Re-reading it later in life, I came to regard it as at little self-serving on the writer's part, but still one of the best "command diary" books I've ever read, because not many people are willing to accurate recount a dismal mess that isn't a disaster of epic proportions.
You want a real laugh, look at the S&P P/E chart on p. 15 of that St Louis Fed document.
@ some_investor_guy
When I said it was a matter of trust, I meant that seeing as how the money is already printed, we must trust the Fed to unprint it (in the face of what will likely be severe political pressure to do nothing or even print more). The odds of them being ahead of the curve, and willing to stand up to the political pressure, are extremely small in my estimation.
Syracuse
"Destiny is an offshoot of the Pyramid cos..."
Tell me I'm hallucinating.
mal, Let's not forget the well-named Xanadu in the New Jersey Meadowlands:
Meadowlands Xanadu announces delay in planned August opening | New Jersey Real-Time News - - NJ.com
Lender being sued there as well. Wonder if the giant Pepsi wheel can instead flash digital advertisements?
There is simply no way for the wage side of a wage price spiral to take hold. On the other hand, enormous quantities of money have been pumped into the system to compensate for the falling velocity of money. If that velocity were to pick up, it will be very hard for the Fed to drain the liquidity out of the system quickly. We could go from near zero inflation to very high inflation seemingly overnight.
Dirk - I can't reconcile these two viewpoints. If the velocity does pick up, but wages still do not respond, how can very high inflation be sustained? Clearly there is a gap in my understanding.
CalculatedRisk
Thank you CR I agree, but I think 2010 is a year of reckoning for sure.
yogi -
You must be hallucinating. I didn't even see that comment.
Obama: Innovative financial products spread risk
WRONG. SPECULATIVE DERIVATIVES ACTUALLY INCREASE RISK.
Obama: Our role is to unleash creativity
DOING NOTING IS BETTER THAN MESSING UP.
Obama: An absence of oversight magnified risks
ABSENCE OF TRUST MAGNIFIES RISKS.
"He declined to say who the tenants were or how many there were. Destiny is an offshoot of the Pyramid Cos., one of the largest mall developers in the Northeast."
You can't...You just can't...
If the velocity does pick up, but wages still do not respond, how can very high inflation be sustained?
Stimulus/Tax Credit - Price Spiral
Scotto: falling real wages, the people get poorer. Probably will happen through headline inflation being far higher than core inflation.
To be fair, disease spreads. Fear spreads.
Thanks CR and all for the intro to OER. This is a major component of CPI? Kind of like opening a serious-looking tome on economics and finding the main taxt scrawled in crayon. Near 1/4 of the CPI calculation is based on what homeowners/general public thinks? As somebody wrote yesterday here, "Have you ever talked to the general public?"
Obama: Innovative financial products spread risk
Obama: Our role is to unleash creativity (innovation)
Newspeak.
Scotto: falling real wages, the people get poorer. Probably will happen through headline inflation being far higher than core inflation.
=====
thanks Dirk: what happens to interest rates and asset values in this case?
"Have you ever talked to the general public?"
I have had my share of talks with the general public and all I can say is the General public is discussed by this whole mess, even if 90% don't understand most of it.
Obama: Innovative financial products spread risk
Sort of like HUD's policy to monetize the tax credit into an FHA down payment
Stimulus/Tax Credit - Price Spiral
=====
but won't the gov't be trying to "pull money out of the system" by the time inflation starts to hit?
June 17 (Bloomberg) -- The leaders of Russia and China agreed to expand use of the ruble and yuan in bilateral trade to lessen dependence on the U.S. dollar a day after they took part in the first summit of the so-called BRIC countries.
“We agreed to take further steps in this direction, including, perhaps, by adjusting contracts and laws that already exist,” Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told reporters in the Kremlin today after talks with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao.
Dirk -
I think you underestimate the persistence of our elected officials. The way to get some wage price movement is by fiscal stimulus. And they are already talking about another stimulus package. If a second one doesn't work, I can guarantee you a third one will be proposed.
shill (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 11:42 am
Obama: An absence of oversight magnified risks.
Agreed with Shill.
There was plenty of oversight. The robbery went on in plain sight. In fact, the authorities were not just aware of it, they were party to it! But this isn't brought up?
“If is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it”
--Upton Sinclair
This was not an economic crisis, it was a social / political crisis. The economic crisis it spawned may one day be dealt with. The bureaucratic / administrative crisis itself, the state has yet to lift a finger to resolve. In fact, we're making the guildmasters of the banker's guild even more important as part of the "solution" to the problem the captivity of their regulators caused.
By the inability of the state to recognize and meet this challenge to its authority, can you discern what the real flow of power is.
MacReady: I know I'm human. And if you were all these things, then you'd just attack me right now, so some of you are still human.
There are no more humans left in the room with MacReady.
What day are we on for the doubleplusgood California Countdown?
Why CR always gotta be dissin' Flation, man? Give some respec to de Flation.
From personal experience, I can echo a lot of comments here about true rents not being reported by REIT's. I currently live in Los Angeles. My current apartment complex has offered two months free rent to keep us, but won't lower the monthly rent. Many apartment complexes around LA are doing this. My guess is that this keeps asking rents higher, so if the market ever turns it will be easier for them to just pull back the incentives. Most of these REIT's realize that if they start lowering rents, it will take a long time to come back. Instead we signed a lease on a family owned unit in a nice part of Santa Monica. Since it is a family owned property, they don't mess with incentives, etc. We just got a monthly rent that was at market value. This rent is easily 25% lower than the "asking" prices for all the complexes around here. Things are not as good as the numbers would indicate.
"I have had my share of talks with the general public and all I can say is the General public is discussed by this whole mess, even if 90% don't understand most of it."
I'm amused by the word misusage but to criticize would be pot/kettle, frankly. But it's true that homeowners have an unrealistic idea of the worth of their property; it's emotionally safe for them to do so. The context of yesterday's remark was someone complaining about financial disclosure rules for investments, etc., setting up a nanny state for the general public. And in fact the general public (which I'm part of) is sorely undereducated; and easy prey for the sharks who count on that.
Me personally: if the less ethical end of capitalism is willing to spend billions to get consumers to make decisions against their own best interest, society (in the form of government) should be willing to spend at least hundreds of millions to get the real word out there.
Scotto -
They are taking one look at a chart of the total debt to GDP ratio and dreaming of inflation. There's nothing they'd like better. Don't expect them to be pulling money back out until that ratio is considerably lower.
We have had nothing but an Alphabet soup of programs over the last, say 2 years or so, that have done nothing but band aid the problems ( and paid many crooks off ) and now you want the general public
( dopes I know ) to believe that more regulation and Pixie dust rules are going to make it all better again?
Silliness on a grand scale...Note to Mr. President Obama
REGULATION STARTS WITHIN.
THAT is the central concept failure in evaluating this pandemic - if it isn't Captain Trips, it ain't sh!t - there is a world of potential outcomes with systemic implications well short of that...
Rents track incomes better than home prices IMO so we will see rents fall and home prices with them.
BTW On Incomes:
If a woman earns .75 cents/1 for every dollar a man makes and I am unemployed does that mean a lot women owe me a quarter???
@MLM - I'm looking forward to seeing the fedgov't juggle wage inflation goals with profitability at Gov't Motors, Chrysler, and all the other current and impending 'partnerships'.
the other current and impending 'partnerships'.
It's called FASCISM.
Scotto I think thats the very definition of stagflation...
On CA
How about the CA state treasurer go double down on the roulette table at one of the Indian Casinos. Its a win-win maybe a 50 billion dollar deficit will get BHOs attention.
I'm looking forward to seeing the fedgov't juggle wage inflation goals with profitability at Gov't Motors, Chrysler, and all the other current and impending 'partnerships'.
That makes one of us.
From CBS:
A Nevada newspaper says it has been served a federal grand jury subpoena seeking information about readers who posted comments on the paper's Web site.
There are no more humans left in the room with MacReady.
Macready can take um. He's a badass. How many folks can tolerate the antarctic winter with nothing more than a stetson on their head?
Stimulus/Tax Credit - Price Spiral
This makes sense to me. Wages will be replace by government handout and then money will really lose any value it had left. That is the key to the Zimbabwe ending I think, once government printing/handouts, there will be a price - government handout spiral.
HomeGnome,
Get out your best blue suit. Its open season on heretics.
HomeGnome (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 12:06 pm replyIgnore userFrom CBS:
A Nevada newspaper says it has been served a federal grand jury subpoena seeking information about readers who posted comments on the paper's Web site.
Well, the USG did fund darpanet & BSD so I guess fair is fair.
/snarkoff
Like Dave C, I'm seeing frequent incentive offers from professionally-managed rentals.
I live in Sarasota, but have been tracking changes in rental markets in addition to my own area. In Tampa/St. Petersburg, Naples, Orlando, Austin and Atlanta, the free months and waived fees have become increasingly common. At the same time, I note an increasing number of managed properties lowering rents, particularly in Atlanta and Tampa.
OER regardless, rentals in the SE are substantially lower than this time last year.
"The way to get some wage price movement is by fiscal stimulus."
Wake me up when you can show me concrete signs of a reversal of globalization, a floating yuan, declining unemployment and an increase in worker hours. Until then wage price movement is a pipe dream.
a floating yuan
Sounds like a good mixed drink name...
if they've spunked(thrown at but not yet spent) $14trillion at this 'problem' then why is the relatively small CA deficit not just being TARPED ?
HomeGnome (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/17/2009 - 12:06 pm
From CBS:
A Nevada newspaper says it has been served a federal grand jury subpoena seeking information about readers who posted comments on the paper's Web site.
Of course they are. The news media, as much as it was ever free and independent, has been replaced by captive infotainment, which the post-9/11 / Iraq War abandonment of all standards showed, is totally owned by the people who hold their broadcast licenses / advertise in their pages. Bloggers are something that is not a propaganda apparatus at one remove, they lack capital investments to threaten if they will not play ball, and they lack the pockets to do battle with the vested interests.
Thus the state and the oligarchs that run it will attempt to crush them. You can't have people running around writing the Federalist Papers.
The most critical step is removing the right to anonymity so that anyone can be crushed at any time by the legal burden of fighting a state that has been rendered impossible to confront, as part of the heroic war against the negro-beaner-druggo-terror scum.
What a good job all you Republican lickspittles did advocating property seizure and extraordinary powers under the rubric of defending you against the damn doper-beaner-islamofascist threat. What it's like to have a remote control stuck in your back that makes you put yourself in chains, Elefunt-Brand SUCKER? Don't worry, you're not alone, there are plenty of Donkee-Brand SUCKERS who want to take away your weapons whenever they get power.
Funny how they didn't get around to doing anything about the Patriot Act or warrantless wiretapping, isnt it?
The BLS 'actual rents' track the 'owner equivalent rents' to the point of redundancy. So either the anecdotal reports about dropping rents are not representative of the broader market or the BLS 'actual rents' are also wrong.
Many thanks for the Book Refs Byzantine, I had read the Drake book (ok, i will confess, i'm a huge military sci-fi fan, even knowing how badly written so much of it is.), but reading the real thing will be much better.
More from CBS:
The comments are written under pseudonyms. Along with the real names of people who posted comments, the subpoena asks the newspaper for the writers' gender, birth date, physical address, telephone number, Internet service provider, IP address and credit card numbers.
Why would they need credit card numbers?
CR is mixed up here. The question of how much your house would rent for monthly is used by the Consumer Expenditure Survey to establish the OER's weight in the Consumer Price Index, namely that 23.8% quoted in the post. That is, the OER represents 23.8% of the market basket that BLS samples.
That question has nothing to do with the month to month movement of the OER in the CPI. The OER is determined by getting quotes every six months from non rent-controlled renters, taking a 1/6th power of the sums of the price times weight at month t over the price times weight at month t-6. Please note that this weight is not the same as the Consumer Expenditure weight, but is a weight constructed for OER.
I was putting things too mildly when I said CR is mixed up. His statement "So far owners believe that rents are still increasing." is just plain wrong. Too many of the commenters are riffing off that misleading statement.
I posted the survey question in CR comments a while ago and joked about its wild guess.
It does affect OER's effect on CPI.
The entire process involves homeowner surveys and BLS field-agent asessments for initial value and characteristics, including updates to the house after initial selection.
Basing the OER on "real" rent is still strange because it is the real rent of someone else's house, not your house, dependent upon the accuracy of "same" home features and "same" location for the proxy, modified by a utility ajustment but assuming that refrigerator "services" are included.