Hm. If they are not on the market, how does Jim the Realtor™ know about them?

And is he technically trespassing?

Smile

(piggy-backed from last thread)

I remember driving from Bavaria into East Berlin about 30 years ago, what a contrast.

West German roads were built to high standards, whereas what passed for an autobahn in East Germany was a sloppy mess of a road with no Green Shoots visible for about 200 feet away from the road, and occasional machine-gun nests...

All of the communist world was like this in varying degrees. Even the lone-wolf commies (Yugoslavia, Albania, etc) were a mess. They called it communism, but it looked more like alcoholism to me. I never saw so many drunk people in my life, as I did in Belgrade.

A liter of vodka was a dollar, a black & white 12 inch tv was $300.

Jim says he couldn't too many foreclosed properties that aren't listed.

CR,

There's a verb or something missing somewhere in there.

communism movie tour: goodbye lenin and four months three weeks two days. Great realistic movies. Any other suggestions? No agitprop, please.

Put Closely Watched Trains in your Netflix queue

A million three.... There bust be bullion in the backyard.....

................

I concur JtR does rule....

In Poland as of 2 years ago they were still using roads made by the Wehrmacht. I think they called them Hitlerbahns...

Bloomberg has a columnist writing about the billion dollar bonds and saying the story will get more coverage. Quotes Denninger...says it could be a real problem...

Jims right.... All this MEW and no actual improvements to the exterior of the houses.... It seems to agree with that study by Cali College Prof (forgot the name) that CR posted a few days ago....

"In Poland as of 2 years ago they were still using roads made by the Wehrmacht. I think they called them Hitlerbahns..."

Probably autobahnen made in the 30s, back when East Prussia was still part of Germany.

The idea that we undermined the Soviet system is pure hogwash. It just took it's sweet time in falling apart on us.

"My aunt told me that she preferred the Nazi occupation over the Soviet version."

Your aunt was probably not made a slave or murdered. My aunts preferred the kibbutz.

My aunt told me that she preferred the Nazi occupation over the Soviet version."

Volksdeutche?

Countries are sticky on the way down.

the municipality of san diego actually goes well into "north county". that city was a political mess in the best of times. detroit with perfect weather?

Watch "The Take", about Argentina.

"My aunt told me that she preferred the Nazi occupation over the Soviet version."


I was just talking to an Albanian American about this. As much as the Germans were a threat, the Russians were really feared. I don't know if the albanians felt this way, or if it was a general european sentiment.

I don't know if the albanians felt this way, or it was a general european sentiment.

I think it depended on where you fell on the Race-O-Meter.

"My aunt told me that she preferred the Nazi occupation over the Soviet version."

Your aunt was probably not made a slave or murdered. My aunts preferred the kibbutz.

50 million people perished in World War 2, but sometimes you'd think only Jews died...

I guess the other 44 million were just chopped liver?

"back when East Prussia was still part of Germany"

after WW1, germany was stripped of that land except konigsberg:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:East_Prussia_1923-1939.png

this was the configuration in 1871:

File:Map-Prussia-EastPrussia.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

a bit different, not contiguous. of course, russia still claims konigsberg today.

OT but I cant figure this out. If the BRICs all run surpluses how are they going to buy bonds from each other. Dont they kinda need a debtor?

and don't forget the BRICs collectively have over a BILLION people making $5/day or less.

I guess the other 44 million were just chopped liver?

If they were Hungarian - I think they were goulash.

"The idea that we undermined the Soviet system is pure hogwash"

what did we expend all the funds for then? must have had some effect if not total cause

"It just took it's sweet time in falling apart on us. "

apropos to the current mess

"OT but I cant figure this out. If the BRICs all run surpluses how are they going to buy bonds from each other. Dont they kinda need a debtor? "

Maybe that's what the meeting's for; they're figuring out the turns and who's going first. In a very drunken game of rock scissor paper.

Another WW2/Communism crossover film recommendation:

Dark Blue World

My grandfather nearly died in WWII and that's why it pisses me off that Fascists have taken over America.

@ Nova
Thanks for the laugh today (goulash)

If the BRICs all run surpluses how are they going to buy bonds from each other. Dont they kinda need a debtor?

Paper, scissors, rock?

I guess the other 44 million were just chopped liver?

No, they just don't have a good lobbying firm.

The Chinese alone have over a billion and so do the Indians, or very close. So this is 2b +

outsider please either put my whole post in or make it clear that I was attacking the quote.

Well, Juvenal, I certainly wish the Nazis had raped and murdered your stupid aunt instead of mine.

I hate Illinois Nazis.
(My apologies to Jake and Elwood)

From Richard Epstein on Sotomayor and property rights...re her ruling Didden vs. Port Chester...

"I have written about Didden in Forbes. The case involved about as naked an abuse of government power as could be imagined. Bart Didden came up with an idea to build a pharmacy on land he owned in a redevelopment district in Port Chester over which the town of Port Chester had given Greg Wasser control. Wasser told Didden that he would approve the project only if Didden paid him $800,000 or gave him a partnership interest. The "or else" was that the land would be promptly condemned by the village, and Wasser would put up a pharmacy himself. Just that came to pass. But the Second Circuit panel on which Sotomayor sat did not raise an eyebrow. Its entire analysis reads as follows: "We agree with the district court that [Wasser's] voluntary attempt to resolve appellants' demands was neither an unconstitutional exaction in the form of extortion nor an equal protection violation."

Maybe I am missing something, but American business should shudder in its boots if Judge Sotomayor takes this attitude to the Supreme Court. Justice Stevens wrote that the public deliberations over a comprehensive land use plan is what saved the condemnation of Ms. Kelo's home from constitutional attack. Just that element was missing in the Village of Port Chester fiasco. Indeed, the threats that Wasser made look all too much like the "or else" diplomacy of the Obama administration in business matters.

Jurisprudentially, moreover, the sorry Didden episode reveals an important lesson about constitutional law. It is always possible to top one bad decision (Kelo) with another (Didden). This does not augur well for a Sotomayor appointment to the Supreme Court. The president should have done better, and the Senate, Democrats and Republicans alike, should subject this dubious nomination to the intense scrutiny that it deserves."

Richard A. Epstein is the James Parker Hall distinguished service professor of law at the University of Chicago, the Peter and Kirsten Bedford senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and a visiting professor at NYU Law School. He is a columnist at Forbes.

A lotta gypsies and gays got the axe too.

Say, isn't all this violating Godwin.

Anybody wanna hear about the obnoxious landlord? Obnoxious because
he wasted my time and then wanted me to work for free. I finally chased
him out by standing up and holding out my hand for a good-bye handshake.

I think I will represent a tenant just to balance karma out.

in total, liz, but the chinese also have something which approximates a 'middle' class, largely on the coasts, of at least a few hundred million. i don't know if it is accurate to say that the majority of BRIC ex-russia exists in extreme rural poverty. there are well over a half billion cell phone accounts in china, for example.

but my point is that there's still plenty of it.

Well, Juvenal, I certainly wish the Nazis had raped and murdered your stupid aunt instead of mine.

My family wasn't Jewish, but they managed to lose close to a dozen family members in the war, but I know that doesn't count in your world...

" umop apisdn (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/16/2009 - 5:15 pm

"In Poland as of 2 years ago they were still using roads made by the Wehrmacht. I think they called them Hitlerbahns..."

Probably autobahnen made in the 30s, back when East Prussia was still part of Germany."

FWIW, in Italy they're still using roads made by the Romans.

Oh, you were subtracting middle class. Still think you have over 2 b, but less sure.

"Maybe I am missing something"

sounds like par for the course in new york state

@ Yogi and Juv
Come on guys, neither of you is responsible for each others' loss.
Find a common enemy in the Nazis and Fascists that inhabit America these days.
Beer

The nazis have nothing on the Chinese.

After an execution, usually by a shot to the back of the head with a small caliber pistol, they send the family a bill for the bullet.

They sell the body, which is then preserved in polymer, to one of those anatomy shows that tour the major western cities.

In southern Sicily, there are leftover pillboxes from WW2 all over the place...

Farmers use them to store stuff nowadays.

Those Romans could make a good Road. I don't think they could bear heavy car and truck traffic!

The Pantheon is still in use. I bet the aqueducts would still be working if reasonable care
had been taken of them.

The Appian Way is still there in some form, right?

"Richard A. Epstein is ... professor of law at the University of Chicago...senior fellow at the Hoover Institution

almost missed that - and where would our country be without the conservative brain trusts which gave us such fine leadership over the past decades

" The nazis have nothing on the Chinese.

After an execution, usually by a shot to the back of the head with a small caliber pistol, they send the family a bill for the bullet."

That's an improvement. Prior to the Commies, they'd not only kill you, but they'd kill your relatives out to 7th cousins. Whole provinces were sometimes wiped out.

I thought those splayed out dead bodies were totally yucky and inappropriate, and
now I have a reason why.

1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/16/2009 - 5:27 pm reply Ignore user outsider please either put my whole post in or make it clear that I was attacking the quote.


Sorry yogi, I can see how that could be offensive. I edited. Wasn't intentional, just wanted to respond to that part of the quote, and your name got in there too.

No one can ignore they were trying to subvert ours at the same time... Revisionists prefer to gloss over the historical evidence of this.

  • splat

"I bet the aqueducts would still be working if reasonable care
had been taken of them."

I believe that some of them are still in use as well; I didn't mention it because the discussion was about roads...

Find a common enemy

BANKSTERS !

Hmm.. banksterists, banksterism, bankstocracy ?

  • splat

The Roman aqueduct in Segovia Spain is still in use...

We are all the Fuggers now!!

Epstein is quite wrong.

1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/16/2009 - 10:09 am

http://vlex.com/vid/didden-village-port-chester-summ-ord-20315525

It was decided on Statute of Limitations grounds. In dicta, the Court en banc said that they are bound by ___Kelo which holds that there can be a condemnation for private use in conjunction with a redevelopment plan. There is no expansion of Kelo at all.

"...Appellants, however, brought suit in January 2004, more than three years after the date their claims accrued, and thus their claims are time-barred. We reject Appellants' contention that their injury actually accrued in November 2003 when G&S and Wasser "first utilized their de facto eminent domain power against [them] in an effort to exact a cash payment or partnership interest" in the pharmacy project.

Moreover, even if Appellants' claims were not time-barred, to the extent that they assert that the Takings Clause prevents the State from condemning their property for a private use within a redevelopment district, regardless of whether they have been provided with just compensation, the recent Supreme Court decision in Kelo v. City of New London, 125 S. Ct.2655 (2005), obliges us to conclude that they have articulated no basis upon which relief can be granted....

The district court properly dismissed the complaint on the ground that the Appellants' claims are time-barred. Accordingly, the judgment of the district court is hereby AFFIRMED."


The moreover paragraph is not caselaw and could not expand Kelo even if it said so, which it doesn't.

"No one can ignore they were trying to subvert ours at the same time..."

The introduction of the DH in the 70s was perhaps the sneakiest example of that one...

Ken, would it be possible to get a function that just searched out certain terms such as nazi and then automatically added the author to your ignore list?

I guess the other 44 million were just chopped liver?

Close.
1/2 of those were Russians. Smile

From the Sacramento Bee website:

Government job loss predicted to hurt California's economy

HELLO, Captain Obvious.

Cool, Juvie. I read the First Satire. And a whole lot of explanation.

"after WW1, germany was stripped of that land except konigsberg"

Um, not quite. East Prussia was part of Germany until the end of WWII, when it was taken by the USSR and split it up amongst the USSR, Poland, and Lithuania. The volksdeutsch were evicted.

lawyerliz,

Glad you enjoyed it, he was quite a talented writer...

Yeah, Ken.
I want to ignore anyone who uses "grrl"
Glasses

Statutes of Limitations are pretty black and white.

Most common exception is didn't know and couldn't have known.

"Yeah, Ken.
I want to ignore anyone who uses "grrl""

good one! and fast too.

What about 'sac'?

I don't wanna ignore anybody.

Thanks McDuck
I forget, where are you moving to as an ex-pat?

@ Liz
Me neither...

The moreover paragraph is not caselaw and could not expand Kelo even if it said so, which it doesn't.

The point is not whether it's binding or expansion of Kelo. The order is simply part of the public litmus test, just like Robert Bork's video rental history.

I looked at a "sales" in the 12 months for a couple of neighborhoods in Oakland (Redfin includes foreclosures as a sale) and 12-15% of the sales during that time were foreclosures that have not been resold. In these areas about 50% of all "real" sales recently have been as a result of a foreclosure, so that implies that 25-30% of foreclosures during that time have not been resold. Some are surely currently up for sale or even in the process of being purchased (I didn't dig deep enough to determine what percentage), but most haven't been put onto (or have been removed from) the market.

At least half of these foreclosures were in 2008 so it's not a case of relatively recent foreclosures.

Conclusion: At least here, there IS a substantial shadow inventory of foreclosed homes.

Further Note Regarding vulnerablity of higher-end home prices. Oakland has a very diverse home value distribution such that even within ZIP codes there can be a great variety of prices. However, I picked two ZIP codes that were relatively homogeneous. The high end ZIP went up by 82%, from Jan, 2000 to the peak; the low-end ZIP went up 256%. It is very unlikely that the high end homes will drop as much percentage-wise, but they probably will in dollars. So to the default rate shouldn't be nearly as high but the loss to the lenders (and the economy) may well be.

I don't know if I like the term 'ex-pat'...I'm a citizen of the world Laughing out loud
Japan for 6 months, and then Vietnam/Singapore/Hong Kong/Bali. I'll keep an eye out on the standard of living/cost of land/ease of starting business.

"My family wasn't Jewish, but they managed to lose close to a dozen family members in the war, but I know that doesn't count in your world... "

No, idiot, it depends. If they were killed by partisans for collaborating with the Nazis in murder, then it counts as a victory.

If they died defending human rights, I don't care if they were Wahhabi or Mormon bigamists, they're heroes.

i have no one on ignore wont either never know who you will learn from

In the U.S.A. , they have religious terrorists that dig fetuses out of the clinic trash, to display at their church and then invade an opposing church and shoot the abortion doctor in the head . And they sent his wife the bill for the bullet!

upside down,
I really don't want to hear about that ww2 stuff complete with post ww2 evictions.
family is still grousing about it, and some are still involved in litigation vis the czech republic.

It all turns on when you were evicted, which I find quite comical.
My father's take is that he will never give them a dime of his tourist or any other money, and the property can just rot.
But then he hasn't forgiven his stint as a child in the dp camp- or the two inches of height he was stinted due to malnutrition.

Nothing like having heard that useless stuff from childhood to decide the history of central and eastern europe is a pigsty of stupidity, with despot after despot screwing over the people. I will take a Chrysler style bk discussion over this any day.

Someday this war's gonna end...

"with despot after despot screwing over the people."

i found it interesting that many of the same folks sent east by germany in the 18th century to serve as a buffer with the Slavs ended up doing more or less the same thing in Wisconsin a century later with the indians...

Basel the decision was en banc, and the S. Court unanimously denied cert. So I guess Sotomayor agrees with Scalia.

How does the panel's language in Didden expand Kelo?

yogi,

You are really grasping for straws, just give it up...

Suffering was not limited to any one group of people, it was universal.

@ Mc Duck
Yes, it is just one big sphere in the middle of space.
Third stone from the sun, and all...

@ yogi
My grandfather didn't die, but did spend six months in a hospital.
Fighting the Nazis, by the way.
Only has one lung.
And is still kicking ass.

and, if I may pull this thread back on topic for all of our fine, intelligent community of posters...
Number of homes in the shadow inventory nationwide?

The greatest thing about litigation is the decades it can last.

Suffering was not limited to any one group of people, it was universal.

If the death of 6 million Jews is a tragedy, what is the death of 23 million Russians?

I don't care much about Russians either way but I'm alway amazed at the selective memory of History.

One of the greatest tragedies of my life was holding the hand of my great grandmother as she lay dying.

Oh, 400,000 in the shadow inventory...

2nd greatest tragedy:
Being a Cleveland Indians fan.

Juvenal Delinquent

The Russians lost the most people ... probably 30 million ...

10 military ... 20 civilian ...

But the Poles suffered the most ... first the Germans then the Russians ...

total devastation ...

Western Europe suffered but no where near Poland ...

Oh, 400,000 in the shadow inventory...

Off by order of magnitude.
Most of the "second" and "vacation" homes are shadow inventory.

64 years after the end of ww2, we are still going on about the nazis. 1865 +64=1929, so at the beginning of the last depression, they were jabbering on about the civil war! How dare that Sherman burn Atlanta!!

Well, what's your guess, Broward?

@ great
He also burned Columbia, South Carolina.
It's the CRAPITAL.

"How dare that Sherman burn Atlanta!! "

sherman was a fascinating guy who actually wanted to burn down san francisco a decade or two before he wanted to burn down atlanta... i recommend his memoirs highly

i recommend his memoirs highly

Well you are in a medical marijuana state.
Davie

With all the foreclosures, the 'normal' real estate activity is probably mostly postponed - that's what is happening with us - we would be a seller if we could get a reasonable price for our home - we would like to downsize... but we are not going to give the place away, and we can afford to wait... But there are a lot of people getting divorced, or changing jobs, or whatever that normally would be selling and buying a new place - they are probably waiting too if they can afford it... I think there is a lot of pent up activity that will show up whenever the economy finds a new footing... And I did not authorize Jim the Realtor to tour the ShadowInventory either...

Sherman. the first maoist SDS college student ---burn baby burn!

Well, what's your guess, Broward?

I don't know enough to make a good guess but I'm fairly sure it's into the single digit millions.

BRIC gives you an idea of the obscenity of Krugman-level spending:

"US 2009 government spending (federal/state/local) ($6T) = GDP of China, India, Russia, and a quarter of Brazil combined"

Not One Cent: US Government Spending Consumes World GDP

I'm fairly sure it's into the single digit millions.

Anyone else care to venture a guesstimate?

"yogi,

You are really grasping for straws, just give it up...

Suffering was not limited to any one group of people, it was universaL"

I'm sorry your aunt had nothing to buy in the stores, and I'm sorry your relatives were raped and gassed by the Russians, and made to do slave labor. Call it even.

Broward is 23 million Russians (including many Jews not counted in the 6 million) 1/3 of their prewar population?

I thought this blog was about economics not rehashing war stories.

@ yogi and juv
I'm buying one more round and then you are on your own.
Beer :beer: Beer

Where did those bastions of maturity, Michael and Eras End go off to?

Does foreclosures prolonged without reason count as shadow inventory?

3 anecdotes.

a. Daughter of client moved out of condo after squatting without payment for about 2
years. Because she wanted to move closer to work, not because they chased her out.
There are 2 junior mtges that have not yet been joined, so foreclosure if its ever done,
will have to be redone, or complaint amended.

b..In December of 2007 or Jan of 2008, lady persuaded me to try to get her Final Summary
Judgment set aside. I told her it would be a waste of money, but she insisted. Other side
didn't show, Summ Jugt set aside. Now we are halfway through 2009 and the Plaintiff has
done nothing, even tho all they'd have to do was re-set the summary Judgment. I have
no idea why.

c. Final Summary Judgment set Nov, 2008. Plaintiff made a small boo boo, easily corrected,
I filed affidavits about the mistake, they cancelled the hearing and then absolutely NOTHING
has happened.

Other cases, I've had to do some work. These, I haven't done anything for 7 months to a year and
a half.

I am hearing anecdotes about defenses being filed based on closing boo boos, or other
kinds of errors, and people still living there after 2 years.

After 3 or 4 years of living free, the houses will start needing some normal repairs. At some
point, the free-livers will decide to leave, as the cost of repair will be more than the cost
of moving somewhere else.

It's been awhile since I looked at it but this article tends to confirm my thinking -

Thinking About Buying that Second Home? Think Again

Notice the numbers 30%, 50%, 66%, etc.

I expect that about 1/2 of second/vacation homes are really speculative purchases where the buyer has fooled themselves into believing it's a permanent purchase. Notice the age range. With the damage to 401Ks, the raise in interest rates & layoffs, increase in early retirements, etc, many people will suddenly discover a reason to dump the house.

So I figure an absolute bottom for shadow inventory is 50% of current "second" homeownership.

Got to be a few million houses there.

So I guess because Southern whites suffered during the Civil War it all evens out?

Was Sherman behind the earthquake of '06?

Jeebus kids give it a rest - it was all a tragic waste of human life - whether or not losing 4x the number of people was a greater % of the pre-war population...

Stop with the worry. It's all better.

The bottom is in!!

So says Cramer. Cramer is God. Cramer is never wrong. Cramer knows bottoms.

@ Steelhead and Great
Number of homes in the shadow inventory?

@liz
Thanks for the personal anecdotes.

Meanwhile, back to the schadinventory story...

On second thought, go back to your old handle, so it's easier to see what a complete asshole you are.

"Arbitrage Macht Frei" . In context it conveys more meaning.

@ broward
Thanks for the link.

Upgrading my guesstimate...

Malthus says the bottom is in! give or take the 4 billion lost in the nuke war of 2018

World War II casualties - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia 

23 million out of 168 million.
That's almost 1 in 7.
And you thought 1 in 12 houses in some form of default was bad.

Peabody LOL great old time travel cartoon

i would feel bad about the OT material swamping the thread - but it isn't as if anyone has the slightest clue on even defining or beginning to define the methodology to define the 'shadow inventory'...

the broadest definition - 'real estate owners wishing it was 2005 again' - contains at least 60 million people

Any numbers on recycled foreclosures?

World War II casualties - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Chart of WWII casualties ...

Poland 17% of total population, by far the highest ...

USSR next at 13% ...

Cramers a butterfly today?

I've asked this question to the group the last couple of days but no one has answered.
This is my last time askin'

How many years does Madoff end up getting on June 29th?

I say 25 years.

What say ye?

Winner gets a virtual GnomeBrew:
Beer

Back to the price breaks of Miami, a couple of threads back.

Those price divisions make no sense in terms of the houses I personally closed.

At the end of the bubble, there was almost nothing below 200k.

"the cost of repair will be more than the cost
of moving somewhere else."

That's about where I am now, Liz.

Lily sez 'meow'.

Will be before that - ug99 breaks into the Eurasian breadbasket by 2014 at the latest...

Wiki:

"Jewish Holocaust Deaths. 5.7 million (78%) of the 7.3 million Jews in German dominated Europe perished in the war.-[14,242-244]"

Whatever numbers of years it is, I'll be a life sentence.

I'm surprised he hasn't had a "heart attack" yet.

How many years does Madoff end up getting on June 29th?

I'll venture a guess, 25 to life.

I say, good Lily, goooooood girl.

The Olympics of Suffering is boring. Cut it out.

@ great
What would you care to add other than bagging on the other posters here about how bad our commentary is?

@ liz and speed,
Thanks for playing the "Great Red Herring Madoff Game"

"The idea that we undermined the Soviet system is pure hogwash. It just took it's sweet time in falling apart on us."

Russia is enormously rich. A healthy SU would have withstood almost any amount of economic pressure through competition. in the arms race. The system was sick. The anecdotes are endless, and some are entertaining in a morbid way.

Toward the end people in Moscow began to notice that the doors in new refrigerators wouldn't fit. The problem was traced back to the freight yard. It was too much trouble to unload the machines properly, so the unloaders pushed the refrigerators out of the freight cars and let them fall.

"I'm surprised he hasn't had a "heart attack" yet."

~~~~

Ken Lays' relatives are counting on his death to save their inheritance ...

Haven't heard of that worked ... probably still in court ...

Madoff better get a food tester ...

"Madoff is a red herring."

That's Matjes.

Look, if you all want to wallow in who lost more etc. expand your horizons a bit and puhleeeze find another venue:

Genocides in history - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It will be interesting to see how many of these shadow houses are actually shadow ownership issues. Hear tell the banks are evicting but not completing the transfer of ownership so that they are not assuming responsibility/liability.

"So I figure an absolute bottom for shadow inventory is 50% of current "second" homeownership."

Broward, don't forget that many of those 'second homes' were, in reality, investment properties. They will fall by the wayside very quickly.

Let's all badmouth Genghis Khan!!

Old number but it's a couple years before the peak so post-crash losses probably balance out.

One is not enough - Los Angeles Times

"Currently, there are about 7 million vacation homes in the U.S"

If my 50% guess is right, that's 3.5 million houses which are likely to become shadow inventory over the next few years. if the Feds can actually reboot the economy, then it will be much lower but I don't think the Feds can do it. I think a large # of boomers will come to the same conclusions I have, that you can't fight the long-term trends in place now and it's better to abandon certain positions and expectations.

Ken, is it possible to get email notification sent to advise when the kids have gone to bed so the grownups can talk in peace? Smile

General Sherman----Peabody kudos doubled for speedracer!!! --sherman failed banker ,lawyer, militiaman, scorched earther

If the bank takes ownership of a foreclosure, dont they then have to pay the taxes on it until it is resold? And what about utility bills, HOA assessments etc... If the bank is the owner, looks like they would have to pay... so it's probably better to hold off and hope for a recovery...

speed racer -

Cramers a butterfly today?

Seems he is again calling for the housing bottom on the 30th. Not sure if it was June or July, I don't really pay attention.
But hey Jim did say he does not see a massive hidden inventory so, maybe for some markets at some price levels. Green shoots.

Rob Dawg

It will be interesting to see how many of these shadow houses are actually shadow ownership issues. Hear tell the banks are evicting but not completing the transfer of ownership so that they are not assuming responsibility/liability.

~~~~~

Not gonna work ... liens will just be placed on the property ...

Of course in some cases like Detroit no one will ever claim them ...

I'd say he was successful at the scorched earth thing.

Yep, shadow the banks are supposed to pay for all those things. As to taxes in Fla,
the County has priority over the bank, so even if the bank doesn't take title formally,
they can totally lose their mtg and control of the land. Bank gets notified to pay or
else within a few months of when the tax sale bidding is scheduled.

The TV is on but the sound is off and I look up and there he is made up like a butterfly.
And he gets paid to do this? The end of western civilization has got to be near.

HomeGnome's Revised Shadow Inventory Guess:
1.5 Million homes.

Thank you, Broward.
If you're a drinker, please accept a free virtual beer.
Beer

All other posters, and I do mean ALL:
Thank you for your input.
Diversity is exciting.
GroupThink...not so much.

lawyerliz - Let's all badmouth Genghis Khan!!

He was one bad ass mother, but I don't want to mess with that. He had a historical precedent and he did follow his morals, we just may not agree with them any more.

Home gnome , it's my opinion , not meant as a slight. Plus I drink the scotch not the brew.Have a Great Depression!

The biography I read of Genghis Khan claimed that much of his success came not from the fact that he ruthlessly slaughtered many people but that he made his enemies believe he had. Even on the battlefield, he was famous for fooling the opponent into believing he had much greater numbers.

"Seems he (cramer) is again calling for the housing bottom on the 30th."

~~~~~

July 32nd ... lol

HomeGnome -

GroupThink...not so much.

Only group think here is doom and gloom.

OT:

on CNN, for 3 days straight now, the top story is about Iran. I understand this admin's desire to oust the leadership in Iran, and pressure oil prices lower (polls have shown that younger Iranian generation favored the current ruler). But can we please find about more about the impending California bankruptcy, the aftermath of GM/Chrysler bankruptcy, the moral bankruptcy of American people and this current administration, etc.

(yeah I know, I should just turn away from cnn. problem is, cnn is easy to type on the address bar Laughing out loud)

I understand that something like 1/3 of people in certain portions of Central Asia are direct
descendants of Genghis or his very close relatives.

So he spent as much time f**king as fighting!!!

Have a Great Depression!

Thanks for the laugh.
I owe you one.
Perhaps a nice single malt?

I am excited and pumped up about doom and gloom. I could sell FAZ and TZA to an eskimo!!! Bearly positive attitude people!

Life in the 13th century was a contact sport...

Only group think here is doom and gloom.

Yet generally more accurate than MSM so far.
hoocoodanode?

lawyerliz

The defeated are slaves that take the names of their masters ...

A conversation we had over dinner this evening: Is California going to take the rest of the country down with it?

It isn't just surplus housing in the form of second/vacation/investment units but the coming demographic reversal. If just one house in ten gains an additional occupant thats an additional 4 million unnecessary dwelling units.

We need an emoticon wine glass, and some smiley spirits bottle to add to the
beer mug!!

1 currency now -yogi -Even on the battlefield, he was famous for fooling the opponent into believing he had much greater numbers.

He was a master at many things, there was a time for peaceful expansion through marrage, and a time for killing. He did everything to the extreme with no half steps.
By law he could only have 500 wives, towards the ending he had 499, one open slot just in case he needed it. His concubine role was longer than anyone bothered to track.

The defeated are slaves that take the names of their masters ...

I hereby re-christen me to "Brobama!".

We are not talking names, we are talking genes and DNA. Or, I am.

When you think about all the money taken out of the home ATM by some of these "home owners", they must have been - in a fair way not to have to work. Why work at some mundane job when you can take $100K or more out of the house each year? Employment cannot compete with this San Diego lifestyle. Not at all.

Another hearty THANK YOU to CR and Ken!

@ Liz
and perhaps a "splif" emoticon for our California friends...

Liens are the real issue here - sooner or later, municipalities, counties and cities are going to start extracting their TARP money in a more effective way - by making the banks pay for houses which aren't legally occupied. win-win-win...

i'd guess sooner. sacramento will be cutting the counties off in the very near future, and the mosquito-pool issue is going to be epic once it heats up in the inland empire. who knows, maybe west nile will actually get some momentum with the help of a few dozen san berdu and riverside county pools...

lawyerliz -

We are not talking names, we are talking genes and DNA. Or, I am.

No your right, I saw the same story, the DNA trail is still being researched but the time line and everything matches up very well.

A Cone, a huge doobie, a HOG LEG, a blunt.

"Is California going to take the rest of the country down with it?"

~~~~

The rest of the country only needs a nudge to crash ...

It is only in the DC area that people are believing the green shoots propaganda ...

The DC thought bubble ... best argument for states rights in two hundred years ...

In Miami-Dade, and I suppose elsewhere in Fla, if you annoy the authorities long enough or obnoxiously
enough they can do the 50-100-200 a day lien thing. It does add up.

British Airways asks employees to work for free

Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found

Now that is a green shoot!

Don't taze me Brobama.

[signed California]

Someone probably posted this earlier, but since I missed it and was curious if anyone had an explanation, from the LA Times today:

"In May, a record 111,824 California homes were scheduled for foreclosure sales, but just 16% were auctioned. By comparison, last May, sales were held for 49% of homes slated for foreclosure."
Lenders 'doing everything possible to delay foreclosure' | L.A. Land | Los Angeles Times 

Can someone explain why so few homes are actually getting foreclosed?

If tax liens start piling up, but the federal gov't doesn't know they own those properties in the MBS they're backing, that could be fun. 100% loss?

lawyerliz

"We are not talking names, we are talking genes and DNA. Or, I am."

~~~~

The Mormons are all over it ... genealogy that is ...

There was a great program on this on PBS ...

splif-what currently smoking cannabis indulged in

"It is only in the DC area that people are believing the green shoots propaganda ..."

I live in DC, and I didn't know that we're notable for gullibility here. We're supposed to have a certain immunity because of federal employment, primary or secondary and tertiary. But the crisis is being felt here too. Perhaps not so much as in other places.

HomeGnome - A Cone, a huge doobie, a HOG LEG, a blunt.
Cheech and Chong - Heres a bud for you man.

He couldn't keep his sons from killing one another, or wasting enormous fortunes. Le deluge.

I think the interesting elements in the california impending bankruptcy are the Asian investors that still have tons of cash reserves, and the 4 major industries (tv/movie, video game, internet, porn) which are a bit resistant to depression. Will they have the power to swoop in and claim deals? argue for lower tax? threaten the state/city with leave unless their demands are met? Or would they bail and take their capital elsewhere?

It's not the fedgov which owns them, or will, but the counties or local govts.

don't know, sanity, but in the 80s, when I helped out with foreclosures, most
people managed to bring them current' about 1/3 to 1/2 were actually foreclosed.

That figure has to be close to 100% now.

Harold and Kumar and the white castle saga

Yes, but the same happens to this day, of course now it is lawyers and courts where the real fighting takes place. Different time.

"Or would they bail and take their capital elsewhere?"

Like where? This crisis is going global.

Hollywood would be welcomed in Fla.

pavel.chichikov

DC keeps getting bigger at the rest of America's expense ...

Look at the newspapers like WAPO and the Wash Times ...

The programs that emanate from there like Washington Week, This Week in Washington ...

DC is all Chattering Class Bubble ...

Like where? This crisis is going global.

Well, I can honestly say that I'd rather be in Australia. Smile

In No.VA the high end jumbo is huge. If JPMorgan is right on their call; then it is going to be really ugly for the wanna be upper class.

so tomorrow: Markets go rebound Kermit then
we build the neckline and right shoulder over the next month and a half
and then dive,dive,dive---dow 5800 late september

Sept or Oct or Nov--the deluge.

@liz - the fedgov owns or backs a lot of the MBS, and if the local govt's sell those properties for taxes, will leave the fedgov with zip. My point is - who's taking care of the taxpayer interest in those MBS mortgages? My guess would be that nobody is.

Genghis Khan
He could not keep
All his kings
Supplied with sleep
We'll climb that hill no matter how steep
When we get up to it

Hollywood would be welcomed in Fla.

Hollywood is already IN Florida.

What a hellish a place it is. Iv'e had a legal battle going for two years now that's cost me $4K so far, I keep trying to pay the $500 fine and they keep "helping me". Somebody needs to nuke that place to improve the property values.

nova--how much is NOVA down so far?

"DC keeps getting bigger at the rest of America's expense ..."

Not in my neighborhood, which is middle-class and probably not so different from other places like it. there seems to be a constant confusion between federal DC and DC the middle-sized American city. We are not the same.

nova I have secret service cousins that just threw in the towel on No>Va ... Too bad they didn't know about MBS foreclosure squatter rights

I can see Hollywood in Florida. What with the baby boomers retiring, that's a good market to be closer to. (maybe the same thing can be said for porn)

So far the banks are paying the taxes.

So far.

HOA assn liens are more complicated.

I wrote some more on my CR inspired tale of doom. no health care, and a federal government gone facist.

sample:

We geared up and walked out the backdoor to the path and followed it for a couple hundred yards. Then we cut up through the woods, across a couple yards, and came to the backdoor of a foreclosure that had been empty for awhile. We had checked it out previously. No one had used it as a bathroom which was rare. Max had wanted us out of the house, but we also wanted to be close enough to see if the Burners were either going to sell us out or would come back for what they had spent. I took the first watch. From here on in we were always going to have someone on watch while the others slept.

site: afterthecrash.net

I'm ready to lose my temper just thinking about these lying sacks of shit in Miami.
FUCK

Later.

"Well, I can honestly say that I'd rather be in Australia. "

Ten years ago my friend in Oz told me that he and his wife were well-set for retirement, considering their property and investments. It doesn't look like that any more.

Deep Throat was filmed in S. Fla.

Ok, I'm over that.

But what a fucking ignoramus. As if Jews were not persecuted under the Soviets, and almost universally detest their policies.

porn is huge in south florida. not AVN huge. but viagra huge

LL and the great reflation

It is weird. It all depends location. It is finally moving inward to the core and higher end.

I would say anywhere from plus 30 percent down to 20 percent.

I don't quite understand who you are mad at & why, Broward?

"So far the banks are paying the taxes."

i'm more seeing special 'derelict' or 'unoccupied' liens coming from the counties and municipalities here in the golden state. once sacto cuts them off, they're going to start getting VERY creative very fast. and who better to drain than the legacy interests that own all of those CFC, WaMu and wachovia mortgages? Let Ken Lewis and Jamie Dimon pay for the cops and teachers.

"I would say anywhere from plus 30 percent down to 20 percent."

Sounds right. But if you're paid up and not moving, so what?

Hollywood has basically left Hollywood already and gone everywhere. Film production is now in the cheap states and abroad as much as in greater LA. Television and its sets (along with porn which doesn't require anything production wise) have stayed more in LA though that's starting to change as well. Really though, the only part of the popularly concieved Hollywood that's still in LA is the studio bosses, talent agencies and lawyers, and there's no real reason for them to leave.

LL,

No for plus 30% in No.Va it would be the far outer burbs...think 2 hour commute to DC. Some townhouse dev. closer in also.

"the only part of the popularly concieved Hollywood that's still in LA"

there seem to still be a ton of post-production boutiques in santa monica... hard to say how much actual live shooting is involved in modern CGI spectacles.

From Bloomberg:
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the fifth- biggest U.S. bank by assets, will repay $10 billion to the Treasury Department tomorrow, Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein wrote to congressional leaders.

What say ye?

Why would the outer burbs be up? Don't understand.

LL, a good neighborhood, 5/4 SF will cost you 750K up still

South Florida has such a great coke hangover from the miami vice days. It's still so hyper and energetic and packed with every kind of crazy from different contintents. From Palm Beach to south of miami and on to key west, what it lacks in geologic diversity of Cali, it makes up in cosmopolitan and cultural diversity.

Wiki:

"Speaking about Kasparov, former KGB general Oleg Kalugin has remarked: "I do not talk in details—people who knew them are all dead now because they were vocal, they were open. I am quiet. There is only one man who is vocal, and he may be in trouble: [former] world chess champion [Garry] Kasparov. He has been very outspoken in his attacks on Putin, and I believe that he is probably next on the list."[43]"

I'm kind of exagerating, but that too is starting to get shipped off to India and other places. Of the entertainment industry as a whole, there's still a lot in LA but it gets smaller and smaller all the time. Who knows, maybe when the whole state collapses cost will go down enough for more production work to come back.

Need bonuses. . . . NEED BONUSES. . . . .NNNNEEEEEEEDDD BOOONUSSSESSSS. . . .

"What say ye? "

now that GS has more or less managed to destroy most of their IB competition through the political back door and jamie d has managed to lock down a truly national position in consumer banking, i would imagine that the time has come to progress to the next phase in the farce

Deep Throat was filmed in S. Fla.

~~~~

Mitchell Bros ... SF CA...

whoops that was Green Door

lawyerliz,

Suffering zombification?

Russian politics:

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss, don't forget to blame the Jews for both capitalism and communism.

Has anyone seen any impact analysis that boomers starting to retire will have, adjusted for what's happening with the housing market?

I'd think this will have a big effect on states like Florida - especially for any retirees who'd planned on selling primary home and moving south to retire. The 1945 babies may be changing plans.

The impact on employment for younger people may be big if a large enough demographic of seniors stay in the work force for an extra ten or more years too.

Bloomberg television: Obama has announces an $87 billion dollar loan to California

Staring in the abyss?

//Has anyone seen any impact analysis that boomers starting to retire will have, adjusted for what's happening with the housing market?//

It's interesting how fast some people embrace anti-semitism....

I knew somebody who knew somebody and she always told me it was filmed here.

If not I'm really disappointed. She switched back & forth from banking to porn.

Like where? This crisis is going global.

There aren't any perfect choices. That's kinda the definition of being screwed. I'd look toward places that can feed and fuel themselves. Canada. Even though it looks grim right now, Brazil.

LL,

DC is like a bullseye. DC being the center. The first ring out is inside the beltway. Then only certain neighborhoods. Nth Arlington for example. The 2 nd ring is to the beltway and a bit over. That is Mclean, Langley, Great Falls. Parts of Fairfax. Parts of Vienna and Falls Church (parts)

The 3rd ring is McMansion land. That goes about 7-10 miles outside the beltway. Also huge townhouse dev. older SF etc.

The 4th ring is cheaper, huge TH dev, SF, and MCMansion also.

Everything is relative and based on commute time and land

Why am I not surprised?

//She switched back & forth from banking to porn.//

I don't understand your zombi comment.

Obama announces an $87 billion dollar loan to California

So now every state goes into "Where's my pony?" mode.

need brains (bonuses).. NEED BRAINS (BONUSES)...

//I don't understand your zombi comment.//

P>S>That's Peabody and Sherman's news from the near future. Have a Great Depression!

$87 billion loan...how long does that last?

OK, I knew that would be pretty schizo even for these guys, after announcing Cali was "on its own" this morning.

there is no bloomberg headline on the CA loan

Time to go home to watch NCIS.

We were briefly anti-mongal earlier!

They had paper money!!

You think they care?

//OK, I knew that would be pretty schizo even for these guys, after announcing Cali was "on its own" this morning.//

Well the government union people win again! Screw the rest of you you will get unemployment and like it!

So, is that $87b serious, or not? You guys are freaking me out. Capricorns are very literal, you know...

87 billion sounds too big considering the deficit is only 28 billion or so..

@Lucifer - couldn't you solve all of the problems we're facing by just calling in a few of the deals with you early? Smile

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- Adobe Systems Inc., the biggest maker of graphic-design programs, reported a 41 percent drop in second-quarter profit after the economy crimped demand from advertising customers.

I never understood this company. Software bloated an overpriced

Trillion is the new Billion.

//87 billion sounds too big considering the deficit is only 28 billion or so..//

Ah a moment of hope for Cali ...

only to be dashed ...

what a cruel trick ...

Oh, I didn't realize what I was channeling.

And yeah, take them home early Luci. You can make it a tad less hot, in exchange.

I keep my word, unlike banksters and governments!

//@Lucifer - couldn't you solve all of the problems we're facing by just calling in a few of the deals with you early?//

He didn't find many because they are not foreclosing:

Lenders 'doing everything possible to delay foreclosure' | L.A. Land | Los Angeles Times 

In May, a record 111,824 California homes were scheduled for foreclosure sales, but just 16% were auctioned. By comparison, last May, sales were held for 49% of homes slated for foreclosure.

Of last month's postponed foreclosures, 40% were delayed at the request of the lender; an additional 33% were postponed by agreement between the lender and borrower.

Shhhh!!

//He didn't find many because they are not foreclosing://

"He didn't find many because they are not foreclosing:"

~~~~

2010 is going to be a very, very, ugly year for Cali home prices ...

Well, Lucifer, since you're supposed to be the father of lies, I'll take that as a 'yes, we can'.

house approves 106bn to fund wars in iraq and afghanistan.

Isn't un-BLSed U3 at 10% as we speak?


Obama Says U.S. Jobless Rate to Reach 10% This Year
Summers Defends Scope of Obama’s Financial Regulation Overhaul - Bloomberg.com

By Matthew Benjamin

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama said the U.S. unemployment rate will reach 10 percent this year, even as the economy begins to emerge from the recession.

“You’re starting to see the engines of the economy turn,” Obama said today in an interview with Bloomberg Television at the White House. “It’s going to take a long time -- we had a huge de-leveraging that took place.”

“You’re starting to see the engines of the economy turn,” Obama said

Turn slower perhaps...

Have to blow up other people's homes!

//house approves 106bn to fund wars in iraq and afghanistan.//

I want to smoke what he is smoking!

//“You’re starting to see the engines of the economy turn,” Obama said//

nova , turn slower as the gear teeth break off !

"“It’s going to take a long time -- we had a huge de-leveraging that took place.”"

~~~~

What De-Leveraging ?

There has been NO De-Leveraging ...

Summers tell him that ?

Scumbag !

“You’re starting to see the engines of the economy turn,” Obama said

He needs to stop smoking those green shoots.

i think this begins to emerge from the recession will go on forever tptb will not admit that they have no clue

Fed Gets No Requests for TALF Loans to Purchase CMBS (Update2)
Fed Gets No Requests for TALF Loans to Purchase CMBS (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

By Scott Lanman

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve received no requests from investors for loans to buy new commercial mortgage-backed securities under an emergency program aimed at reducing borrowing costs and reviving U.S. economic growth.

The New York Fed announced the absence of loan requests on its Web site today, the first monthly deadline for investors to apply for loans to buy new CMBS through the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF. No issuers have publicly announced debt that’s eligible for the program.

Bloomberg.com

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama said he is “confident” that he won’t have to raise taxes on most Americans to close the budget deficit as long as the economy picks up steam.

“One of the biggest variables in this whole thing is economic growth,” the president said in an interview with Bloomberg News at the White House. “If we are growing at a robust rate, then we can pay for the government that we need without having to raise taxes.”

Obama has repeatedly said he would keep his campaign pledge to cut taxes for 95 percent of working Americans while rolling back tax breaks for households making more than $250,000 a year.

“I’m confident that we don’t have to raise taxes on ordinary working families,” he said.

The U.S. economy shrank at a 5.7 percent annual pace in the first quarter, reflecting declines in housing, inventories and business investment. Growth is expected to turn positive in the second half of the year, accelerating 0.5 percent from July through September and 1.9 percent in the final three months of this year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 62 economists. The median forecast for growth next year is 1.8 percent, according to the survey.

Continued Problems

Obama warned that if economic growth remains “anemic” and Congress fails to adopt his plans to hold down the cost of health care, work on alternative energy sources and improve the U.S. education system, “then we’re going to continue to have problems.”

He also repeated his promise to cut the budget deficit, forecast to hit $1.8 trillion this year, in half by the end of his first term. The budget he submitted to Congress in February anticipates that the government will still run what would be, by historic standards, large deficits for the foreseeable future.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects the shortfall will total at least $600 billion for each of the next 10 years.

“If my proposals are adopted, then not only are we cutting the deficit in half compared to where it would be if we didn’t do anything, but we’re also going to be able to raise revenue on people making over $250,000 a year in a modest way,” he said. “That helps close the deficit.”

Fiscal discipline that leads to lower budget deficits is important, Obama said, to ensure investors around the world keep buying U.S. government debt.

Obama said a large part of the current budget deficit was inherited from the administration of former President George W. Bush, his predecessor, and that extra spending was needed to address the worst global financial crisis since World War II.

Congress passed Obama’s $787 billion stimulus plan in February.

“We knew we were going to have to take some extraordinary steps to deal with this recession,” he said.

How does he reconcile this with his 10% thing?

Re: shadow inventory

So many of my neighbors have started remodeling projects on their homes, I think they have given up on the idea of selling, and decided instead, to love the home they're with. Some of those people may stay out in the shadows, rather than trying to sell once the all clear has been blown, especially if prices look even worse than they are now.

Ruby slippers?


Obama Says ‘Robust’ Growth Will Prevent Tax Increases (Update1)
Obama Says ‘Robust’ Growth Will Prevent Tax Increases (Update1) - Bloomberg.com 

By Brian Faler and Nicholas Johnston

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama said he is “confident” that he won’t have to raise taxes on most Americans to close the budget deficit as long as the economy picks up steam.

“One of the biggest variables in this whole thing is economic growth,” the president said in an interview with Bloomberg News at the White House. “If we are growing at a robust rate, then we can pay for the government that we need without having to raise taxes.”

Obama has repeatedly said he

“If we are growing at a robust rate, then we can pay for the government that we need without having to raise taxes.”

~~~~

He's not smoking the green shoots, He's mainlining them ...

The way the real Washington world works: Daywork for the Powers that Be---GREENSHOOTS,--- nightwork "are you pages ready to go to the Club D.C Bathhouse to smoke some TINA and deepthroat my lobbyist longjohn?"

purple (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/16/2009 - 4:02 pm replyIgnore userIt's interesting how fast some people embrace anti-semitism....

Living neat Glendale, CA... I am so desensitived to the whole "genocide" issue.
Between the Armenians and the Jews wishing to relive the last 60-100 years, it makes it hard to even listen or even care anymore. Does that constitute anti-semitism, too?

However, if someone brings up the 10-100 million or so Native Americans who were wiped off the face of the earth, it falls on deaf ears.

I guess when 90% of the people are wiped out, there is nobody left to complain.

~miser

In what world is a $900B deficit by 2012-13 progress?

“If we are growing at a robust rate-------------------------what a caveat---if the moon is made of nisa cheese

It's the audacity of hoping to find a job...

Don't forget about the elves! Try and find and elf today! They are all gone!

Well when someone says 17% is the worst, when there is a 78% in the same article, it doesn't add up.

"Between the Armenians and the Jews wishing to relive the last 60-100 years, it makes it hard to even listen or even care anymore. Does that constitute anti-semitism, too?"

No, just more likely to relive the mistakes of the last 60-100 years.

Thanks, LL, Can that be a white & a red wineglass?

miser, I do recognize that which has been done to the Native Americans. We could have done better but not acknowledge that.

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