The guy in the 2 mill house sees that someone just bought across the street for 1.4 million. He walks away and waits for a lower reentry saving himself hundred or thousands of dollars in mortgage payments.
Wow.
so JP Morgan analysts can predict that we'll have housing pressure through 2011-12? and they just figured this out?
I've been predicting Dec 2011 for 2.5 years now.
Looks like JP Morgan is going through CR archives to get their "research" done.
Next they'll tell us that there was, indeed, a housing bubble.
60 percent would just about make housing affordable in my slice of coastal paradise -- unless household income continues to fallr, and then it wouldn't.
But 60 percent would put us back to '95 easily; for mostly the same houses we had in '95. Not that much new building around here. On the other hand -- better countertops now.
a friend's granddad has lived in a "million-dollar" home on the Intracoastal Waterway for over a decade. Had to explain to him that it's no longer 1M when 10 have been built within 2 miles of him during the past three years.
For some reason, people can't seem to understand supply-and-demand when it comes to house prices.
The guy in the 2 mill house sees that someone just bought across the street for 1.4 million. He walks away and waits for a lower reentry saving himself hundred or thousands of dollars in mortgage payments.
Look on the bright side of this report - it might spur the lenders to dump foreclosures now, right now, why wait. Cleanse the system in 90 dyas and get on with planning how to cover the damages.
From what I have seen in my neighborhood, a 60% decline is possible, although it would take a psychological realignment in addition to changes in the financing environment.
No one can convince me that an SFH on 7500 sqft lot, on a busy street, is worth $4.2 million unless the waterpipes are made from solid 22 carat gold. And even then...
Thanks for the Sacramento shoutout. We have a variety of local markets here as well, where the low end has been crushed already, and the mid-high end is still waiting for big losses to get going.
Generaly I concur, ISTM that losses on the high end are likely to be less than losses on the low end. BUT....Jus as you have to add the declines due to job losses to the lower end, you have to add losses due to Investment and bond losses to the high end. When J6pk defaults, he is stiffing the person who lent him the money. Ultimately it was the wealthy lending to the less well off, and many of the well off have yet to realize how much they have lost.
"One more point. Most wall streeters are indeed morons."
Impossible !! they have MBA's from all the best schools, clearly this demonstrates a keen intellect and an absolute unshakable understanding of business and economics..
I think the main thing is that Americans will be thriftier. The place where you get the biggest bang for the buck is buying a lower priced home. So the demand curve will shift to smaller cheaper homes leaving the big expensive homes with few buyers. I think it is possible that the high end declines in value by 60% like JPM estimates.
In the last 15 years or so, I've seen so many people that make $100k to $200K live like they make > $500K/year. They've spent their futures. Almost all of them assumed their houses would provide a safety net and a pool of lasting savings.
Many of these faux wealthy people, now have little or even negative net worths. Not a pleasant place to be when you are middle aged with several kids about to enter college.
40%, 50% or even 60% off the high end would not surprise me at all. So many have "earned" it.
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/16/2009 - 2:00 pm reply Ignore user a friend's granddad has lived in a "million-dollar" home on the Intracoastal Waterway for over a decade. Had to explain to him that it's no longer 1M when 10 have been built within 2 miles of him during the past three years.
For some reason, people can't seem to understand supply-and-demand when it comes to house prices.
edited per FD's pet peeve
Parents live on the ICW overlooking the Bulls Bay/Atlantic....
bought 2 acres in 1998 for 185k and built the 4400 sq ft house and 500' long dock for 500k...
It is still worth $1.5-2 million....all in a neighborhood that is not incorporated in the city, roads are dirt and horses/4 wheelers roam freely......and I love it.
"Ultimately it was the wealthy lending to the less well off, and many of the well off have yet to realize how much they have lost."
Good point, although I think most of the Madoff victims have gotten the picture by now.
Another wild card is how much of wealthy people's money is tied up in houses owned for consumption. Maybe there will be a boom in reverse mortgages on Mansions. Almost everyone wants or needs to retire at some point. When you are paying $35K /year in property taxes on a McMansion or far more on a real mansion, it's not hard to bleed out and keel over if you can't maintain that multimillion dollar annual income.
CR, I hate to doubt you, but are you sure that the low-end saw a greater percentage increase in value than the high-end during the bubble? Here in SoCal they both saw over 100% growth, at least anecdotally.
I own some gold and I would let it go to 1 dollar an ounce if that meant people put renewed value on clean water, lush forests, & abundant wildlife. Gold is a bet that even after this crisis people will continue to chase status.
davjphys: in many places in California, local policy has to shift to make cheaper homes viable. Because property taxes are artificially constrained, many cities frontload their revenue by charging tens of thousands in "fees" for each new house. To make a return that pencils out, developers have opted to build larger houses that offer greater profit margin.
This dynamic will have to change in many parts of California to get you where you want to go.
Danny, Case-Shiller has some great tiered price data. It definitely shows (for the areas I've looked at) that the lower price tier increased a greater percentage than the high priced tier.
Danny, that California "moratorium" is for lenders without modification programs (at least that was my read). Most of the majors in California have approved programs ...
Thanks, CR, on both counts! Looks like you're right on the low end vs. high end. Low end did more than 3x growth during bubble. High end did about 2.5. But I still don't think a 60% fall is out of the question. The low end just might get an 80%.
What would happen if houses were to be lived in, rather than financial instruments to keep everyone in the consumption game after wages quite increasing in 1974?
I think we may find out.
"Low end did more than 3x growth during bubble. High end did about 2.5."
Taking Bob Dobbs' point into account, it may be that we see a preponderance of high-end construction now that the bubble is over, which would add supply pressure on the high end.
I don't have any numbers to link, but this seems to make sense.
Shill, thanks for the link. Not only is Prechter forecasting we'll lose our AAA by the end of 2011. He says "we are obviously heading toward a depression." Wow.
In upscale PHX/Scottsdale it's a seller's strike over $1mm just like it was a seller's strike the last 2 years around conforming., REO's already at 60% off.
"Financial firms showered nearly $1 million in political cash on the United Food and Commercial Workers union in California while a top union leader sat on the boards of big public pension funds in the state, an analysis of campaign finance records shows."
Thanks, CR, on both counts! Looks like you're right on the low end vs. high end. Low end did more than 3x growth during bubble. High end did about 2.5. But I still don't think a 60% fall is out of the question. The low end just might get an 80%.
/snark on.
Well, Honolulu, HI is not part of the Case/Shiller 10 or 20, and I think the high end may have increased even more than the low end. Of course the low end is noticed a lot more when it goes from 200K to 600K, but no one really notices when a high end house goes from 800K to 5M except the tax man who just loves it. Of course the realtor's always say Hawaii is different and it can't happen here, so what me worry!
/snark off
I thought you meant Bank of America. Anyone remember back in the '80s when BofA tried to persuade employees to "adopt an ATM" and keep the area around it clean -- for free? That one died as soon as the memo leaked (about five minutes).
High end sellers still haven't gotten the memo. In parts of California's LALA land: Westside of Los Angeles and posh Palo Alto/Atherton/Woodside/Portola Valley in the Bay Area, prices have dropped no more than 10%. The frenzy has disappeared and homes are sitting longer, but they sell.
Why? I asked around. And the answer seems to be simple: CASH. High end buyers at the absolute top of the market: Bel Air, N of Montana in Santa Monica, Mountain Home Drive in Woodside, etc. pay for most or all of their home in CASH. In the Bay Area, this is cash being showered from stock options, acquisitions and IPOs.
Having said that, there are some great blogs tracking the slowdown in high end California. These are two that I follow:
Good point, but for every wealthy person who owns an expensive house free and clear, there is a Michael Jackson type that gets in financial trouble and needs to sell. Not all of these situations are as lame or as public as the Neverland Ranch fiasco, but you might be surprised home many situations like this exist on a smaller and less public scale.
Yeah, that one wasn't literal. But there is an SEC investigation:
"Sean Harrigan [2], the union's former executive director, is now under scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has charged several firms and individuals with making improper payments to win investments from pension funds in New York and New Mexico.
Harrigan, 62, stepped down from the board of the Los Angeles Fire and Police Pension [3] system last month in response to the SEC inquiry into his dealings while at the fund.
one solution to the pension fund mess is to make it strictly pay-go. it's never a good idea to have such a larger pool of OPM, especially if the taxpayer is backstopping investment losses.
The college bubble will be the next to implode.
that or health care.
CLEARLY this is all deliberate ! The govt. is running up huge deficits , allowing house prices to collapse, giving the Banksters a free ride and financing them with federal debt. in an attempt to destroy the system, thus institute anarchy and under the guise of saving the nation establish a new single party neo-socialist dictatorship, curbing basic rights and allowing for a new ruling elite to govern by birthright.
Leaping a bit off topic... as I'm reading other blogs and love good conspiracies theories
sm_landlord: My point was that as long as cash buyers are out there, sellers in ultra-prime locations can hope to hold out. Of course, some will be pressured to sell and will be forced to sell at something less than their hoped for price. Cash buyers are the opposite end of the bank REO seller - they neither need financing or need to sell their previous home.
Case in point: at some point in the near future, Facebook will probably go publicly, instantly minting a stack of millionaires. These folks will enter the market and bid up homes with cash.
There was an article a while back that estimated that Boomers that didn't hold property would come out just OK in retirement but Boomer that still had property were going to be hurting. How many of those upper end homes are held by Boomer? I'd assume a great many. I'm guessing the article was meant to illustrate the mobility needed to weather this economy. I wish I'd kept a copy of that article now.
Comrade Terry (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 6/16/2009 - 11:21 am "Bulls Bay/Atlantic."
Been shrimping on Bull's Bay many times. Not the place to be at night unless you really know the place - too easy to get lost or run aground.
They are on the south side....(Anderson Creek/Venning Creek) and if you look out the house, you are looking at the north tip of Bull Island. September can't come soon enough...
If you ever make it this way, give me a shout. matty at hughesmotors dot com
or stop by marker 67....green roof dock that has school's out and a Citadel flag flying.
Actually this all began with the "Man on the grassy knoll." It is all part of the Sioux Nations plot to regain control of the land they once used. After the birth of the 1st annointed white buffalo in 1961 they knew it was just a matter of time. Since then, using casino revenues and under Wayne Newtons guidance they have been on the march.
College bubble is already beginning to implode -- there was a very good article a few weeks back (Financial Times?) about how too many colleges had taken out large loans to build new buildings and "luxury" dorms, blithely expecting that they could continue to raise tuition 8% or more a year ad infinitum. Now that students no longer have access to both their parents' HELOC money and cheap, subsidized student loans, enrollments are dropping for expensive private institutions.
At the same time, on the other end of the equation, many of those colleges and universities were suckered into buying interest rate swaps (by financial "advisors") to protect themselves from rising rates on their loans. So now, with interest rates having dropped, they are forced to pay off not just the loans, but also the swaps, and have to do so with decreasing revenue.
Then you'd find that too many people wouldn't find life worth living if they have to live it in a house w/only one bathroom (even if there's only 2 people who don't entertain overnight guests very often). Or without a huge kitchen even if a microwave and dishwasher are by far the most frequently used kitchen appliances. Or a dining room even if the family almost never sits down to a meal together.
From what I've observed, people's housing expectations have increased substantially. Just as they have for motor vehicles, both size & number--and it's definitely not "just" the much maligned baby boomers, it includes people in their 70's who had huge custom homes built to retire to because their friends did & they had to keep up (as in a friend's neighborhood in Eugene), or the 16 to 30 year olds that I see who have to have the big Ford/Dodge/Chevy pickup w/all the add-ons & fancy wheels. Maybe jacked up. Maybe a motorcycle too, and a dune buggy and an ATV and and and. They're all "necessary."
Contrary to all the market noise, there are no signs of a significant economic recovery. So-called green shoots in the global economy are mostly due to inventory cycles. Stimuli might juice up growth a bit in the second half 2009. Nothing, however, suggests a lasting recovery. Markets are trading on imagination.
Colleges, These are the people who taught Americas finest in financial educated. What should we expect except double digit tuition increases and more student loans.
It is the first formal step by our major trading partners to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. If they succeed, the dollar will dramatically plummet in value, the cost of imports, including oil, will skyrocket, interest rates will climb and jobs will hemorrhage at a rate that will make the last few months look like boom times. State and federal services will be reduced or shut down for lack of funds. The United States will begin to resemble the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe
Inverted Hammer of Thor -
College bubble is already beginning to implode --
I understand we are seeing a massive increase in the enrolment in community colleges due to lower cost, and a drop off in the more expensive ones.
There will be an increase in people needing to re-train, but I think the only boom will be the lower end schools, C get degrees and do I need an Ivy League degree to get a crappy job?
Splat
Leaping a bit off topic... as I'm reading other blogs and love good conspiracies theories Wink
Last I check Splat the conspiracy theorist have been dead on so far...Obviously your glasses are way to thick , trying thinking sometimes....with your brain that is.
I read somewhere that in many states an endowment fund can not be withdrawn below the original contributions level - that the beneficiary can only spend the capital gains and interest on the funds... So no wonder a lot of these colleges have fired up the fund raising engine.....
China has introduced an explicit “Buy Chinese” policy as part of its economic stimulus programme in a move that will amplify tensions with trade partners and increase the likelihood of protectionism around the world.
In an edict released jointly by nine government departments, Beijing said government procurement must use only Chinese products or services unless they were not available within the country or could not be bought on reasonable commercial or legal terms.
Once again, I agree with you. But it's important to point out that hope and casino winnings are not a business plan. You'll always have pro athletes, pop stars, trustifarians, and lucky gamblers. Just not enough to prop up the whole high-end market. And not all of these folks will be able to maintain the ongoing costs of ownership.
Take a look at what's happening in Malibu, for example.
Lowest tiers went up furthest and fastest, and have dropped the most on a percentage basis.
Here in Socal, it was the bottom end of the market where the mortgage brokers made their money with outright fraud, selling crapola products to people who were convinced that the prices would always go up, and they could serially refinance.
Looking at the tiers for Los Angeles, I think there's plenty of room for falling prices over time. John Chiang's latest State Controller's report showed that California income tax collections had dropped over 20% year to date. That's a lot of income that people won't have to buy houses, and a lot of houses going into foreclosure.
[The asteroid quakes]
C-3PO: Sir, it's quite possible this asteroid is not entirely stable.
Han Solo: Not entirely stable! I'm glad you're here to tell us these things.
Substitute asteroid with green shoots or economy, and this is what I am feeling today.....
That is correct in Michigan...Killing all sorts of non-profits....
//I read somewhere that in many states an endowment fund can not be withdrawn below the original contributions level - that the beneficiary can only spend the capital gains and interest on the funds//
If you have an Ivy League degree, it gives your boss bragging rights when he displays your burger wrapping skills...
Back in the 1980's I owned a full service carwash - I had several minimum wage employees who had advanced degrees, even one guy who had been an officer in the Marines... I would say that all of them had found their natural level at minimum wage, and their credentials, if real, were just the result of them being shuffled through the system even though they were incompetent and could not possibly have passed any real tests. I think the same way every time I see someone who claims a lot of credentials, has some kind of high paying job where they dont actually produce anything, and cant form a proper sentence or spell properly.
There is a part of the world where performance matters, not credentials, and this is where true value is created....
"NEW YORK, June 15, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- IntercontinentalExchange , a leading operator of regulated global futures exchanges, clearing houses and over-the-counter (OTC) markets, today announced that ICE Trust U.S.(TM) (ICE Trust) has surpassed $1 trillion in cleared credit default swaps (CDS) since operations began on March 9, 2009. Open interest at ICE Trust currently stands at $145 billion, representing an 86% reduction in notional value outstanding. ICE Trust also set a weekly clearing record of $247 billion in notional value for the week ending June 12, on transaction volume of 2,330 contracts. Since launch, the total number of transactions cleared is 12,050."
Yeah only 145 billion. If no counterparties break the chain letter, I believe.
I agree 100%. In fact, most universities, even the expensive private ones, have been effectively degree mills for a while now. It was a natural progression from government subsidy, just like the housing bubble. People fresh out of high school are given no down-payment, deferred-interest loans (that in recent years have begun to rival mortgage payments), thus driving demand and inflating prices.
The interesting difference is that, with the college bubble, it was the buyers who gained the advantages (minus price, obviously) as a result of the wide supply of college educations available. Whereas with houses, with their perceived shortage ( "they aren't making any more land" and "housing only goes up"), the sellers could make absurd requests, like "feed the squirrels", with colleges it was the buyers who began making requests, as they had the power to take their inflated tuition payments elsewhere. So colleges became very concerned about making sure their students passed, regardless of merit, as students will transfer out of schools that are too hard (or, if they fail out, they stop paying also). From this "buyer leverage", if you will, follows the logic of building luxury dorms and shiny new classroom towers with wifi and flat panel TVs in the lobby, as the students are no longer apprentices paying for the advantage of being imparted valuable knowledge, but rather customers, paying for an accredited name on a piece of sheepskin with a shiny gold seal.
Take away the subsidy, however, and a (private) college education again becomes something only for the wealthy, or the very dedicated. And again, I think this parallels very well with the housing bubble -- the problem isn't necessarily the subsidy, it's the extent of the subsidy. Just as we shouldn't do away with mortgages, we shouldn't do away with student loans, either. If the student can't possibly afford $50K a year for a private school, he shouldn't be given a loan for it. Give him a loan for $10K for a state school.
No different than saying someone who makes that $50K a year shouldn't be given a loan for a $500K house; it's not the loan that's the problem, it's the size of the loan and the creditworthiness of the borrower. Because in both cases, at an individual level it creates financial problems for the borrower of too much debt, but at a macro level it can directly affect markets, and thus the price, quality, and supply of the products involved, be it education or housing.
Does a high end downtown Miami/Miami Beach high rise condo count if it never got sold in the first
place?
And it seems that the condo doesn't even have to be in Florida to fail. In DC, there's a new condo complex called the Floridian that the developer just gave back to the lenders.
Are you joking about the previous stick-save, or is that actually happening again at this very moment? Do you have real-time info? Not being critical, just genuinely curious.
I think the same way every time I see someone who claims a lot of credentials, has some kind of high paying job where they dont actually produce anything, and cant form a proper sentence or spell properly.
At times I think I fit that description, thank God for spell checkers.
"i'll be double-dipping the regular and patent bars this summer"
Which state? The patent bar isn't too tough, although it's much easier if you've already had some patent work experience (I had worked for a year at a patent boutique before taking it and I still did no better than a wild guess on most of the PCT questions). Get to know your friendly 37 C.F.R. and you should be OK.
"Then you'd find that too many people wouldn't find life worth living if they have to live it in a house w/only one bathroom (even if there's only 2 people who don't entertain overnight guests very often)."
Homebuilders can adapt to this fussiness; break off the toilet into a separate water closet (and I mean closet) like the old days. Lived in an old Victorian flat that had that setup. Made it possible for four adults to share a 3-br/1 bath flat comfortably. These days, you can even get a combo toilet with a small sink built into the top if you don't want to hike elsewhere to wash your hands.
But mainly -- they'll get used to it. No -- rather, they'll redefine who they are and what's really important. I hear there was a lot of that in the '30s. There always is -- when reality holds a gun to your head.
Sticking with coffee right now, watching for the pump today just for kicks.
I still can't rack my head around the optimism, do people think super sizing the deficit is actually a good thing?
Well, I'll try to quite down and read all the links and good information coming out. Just wanted to be a gadfly for a short time.
"I think the same way every time I see someone who claims a lot of credentials, has some kind of high paying job where they dont actually produce anything, and cant form a proper sentence or spell properly."
A friend edits course descriptions and program descriptions for the course catalog of a good-sized public university. These are written by the faculty and staff.
Believe me.... you wouldn't believe me if I told you how bad much of the writing is -- not even counting the grammar and punctuation errors, which were many and egregious.
Oddly enough, the engineers tend to do a better job than the lit people.
I am finding it increasingly annoying how the news media mindlessly reports financial non-predictions as if they were newsworthy. An Analyst stating that something "may" happen does not qualify as either a prediction or news in my book. A huge asteroid may strike the Earth in the next five years. An earthquake may level San Fanfransco this year. Sarah Palin may run for President in 2012. etc...
Only 60% ?
more hyper-inflation?
Does that mean those private islands are going to decline by 80+%?
I predict at least a 60% decline in the number of high end JPMorgan analysts.
I call it "Foreclosure Envy"
The guy in the 2 mill house sees that someone just bought across the street for 1.4 million. He walks away and waits for a lower reentry saving himself hundred or thousands of dollars in mortgage payments.
The cycle repeats in a downward spiral
JPM - short RE?
Wow.
so JP Morgan analysts can predict that we'll have housing pressure through 2011-12? and they just figured this out?
I've been predicting Dec 2011 for 2.5 years now.
Looks like JP Morgan is going through CR archives to get their "research" done.
Next they'll tell us that there was, indeed, a housing bubble.
sheesh.
Rising UE and days on the market like today aren't helping "Joseph Champagne bottle" with his million dollar home either.
More RE fun facts:
5700 Pecan Ave, Orangevale, CA 95662
Bed/Bath: 3/2
Sq. Ft.: 1,296
Price: $125,000
Last Sale: $325,000 (July 14, 2004)
60 percent would just about make housing affordable in my slice of coastal paradise -- unless household income continues to fallr, and then it wouldn't.
But 60 percent would put us back to '95 easily; for mostly the same houses we had in '95. Not that much new building around here. On the other hand -- better countertops now.
a friend's granddad has lived in a "million-dollar" home on the Intracoastal Waterway for over a decade. Had to explain to him that it's no longer 1M when 10 have been built within 2 miles of him during the past three years.
For some reason, people can't seem to understand supply-and-demand when it comes to house prices.
edited per FD's pet peeve
The rich are different than you and I, as they are even more broke than us...
basel too-
Pet peeve, sorry: It's intracostal...
The guy in the 2 mill house sees that someone just bought across the street for 1.4 million. He walks away and waits for a lower reentry saving himself hundred or thousands of dollars in mortgage payments.
Move-down buyers. I like it.
Glad I moved down and out when everyone else was movin on up!
Would you rather endure a 98% haircut of Buffett's wealth or a 20% cut of your California teacher's union salary?
Look on the bright side of this report - it might spur the lenders to dump foreclosures now, right now, why wait. Cleanse the system in 90 dyas and get on with planning how to cover the damages.
From what I have seen in my neighborhood, a 60% decline is possible, although it would take a psychological realignment in addition to changes in the financing environment.
No one can convince me that an SFH on 7500 sqft lot, on a busy street, is worth $4.2 million unless the waterpipes are made from solid 22 carat gold. And even then...
Yogi
How about the $400,000 dollar salary of the chancellor of UC...Davis
These JPM analysts are totally useless. They are years late to the party.
Morons! Is it any wonder our financial system needed $13.9 trillion in bailouts and guarantees.
One more point. Most wall streeters are indeed morons. Some of the wall streeters do get it though. They just have no issues pushing shams/fraud.
Thanks for the Sacramento shoutout. We have a variety of local markets here as well, where the low end has been crushed already, and the mid-high end is still waiting for big losses to get going.
The retirement and equity withdawal dreams..
Still waiting in Sonoma county. Will rent one of these fine unoccupied homes (with renter's foreclosure insurance?) for a year or four...
In a country that worshipped money above everything else, the deflating sound of leaking home prices can't be tuned out easily...
"or a 20% cut of your California teacher's union salary?"
FWIW, teachers aren't given the option of receiving a salary reduction. They're just laid off - over 20k in CA this year.
So I guess we'll start seeing huge tax credits for first time buyers of sprawling 30 room mansions
Ahmadinejad Stresses Need for a New World Order
Ahmadinejad stresses need for a new world order
They're just laid off - over 20k in CA this year.
Those who are left are being asked to accept less pay.
Juvenal,
The falling home prices.. Oh the humanity.. Cue Hindenburg clip.
Generaly I concur, ISTM that losses on the high end are likely to be less than losses on the low end. BUT....Jus as you have to add the declines due to job losses to the lower end, you have to add losses due to Investment and bond losses to the high end. When J6pk defaults, he is stiffing the person who lent him the money. Ultimately it was the wealthy lending to the less well off, and many of the well off have yet to realize how much they have lost.
S&P 500 911.8 elmo's on fire
2% x 62 BB= 1, 240,000,000
So if the Chancellor paid no taxes and spent no money he would catch Buffett in only 3100 years.
"One more point. Most wall streeters are indeed morons."
Impossible !! they have MBA's from all the best schools, clearly this demonstrates a keen intellect and an absolute unshakable understanding of business and economics..
< /sarc >
I think the main thing is that Americans will be thriftier. The place where you get the biggest bang for the buck is buying a lower priced home. So the demand curve will shift to smaller cheaper homes leaving the big expensive homes with few buyers. I think it is possible that the high end declines in value by 60% like JPM estimates.
In the last 15 years or so, I've seen so many people that make $100k to $200K live like they make > $500K/year. They've spent their futures. Almost all of them assumed their houses would provide a safety net and a pool of lasting savings.
Many of these faux wealthy people, now have little or even negative net worths. Not a pleasant place to be when you are middle aged with several kids about to enter college.
40%, 50% or even 60% off the high end would not surprise me at all. So many have "earned" it.
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/16/2009 - 2:00 pm reply Ignore user a friend's granddad has lived in a "million-dollar" home on the Intracoastal Waterway for over a decade. Had to explain to him that it's no longer 1M when 10 have been built within 2 miles of him during the past three years.
For some reason, people can't seem to understand supply-and-demand when it comes to house prices.
edited per FD's pet peeve
Parents live on the ICW overlooking the Bulls Bay/Atlantic....
bought 2 acres in 1998 for 185k and built the 4400 sq ft house and 500' long dock for 500k...
It is still worth $1.5-2 million....all in a neighborhood that is not incorporated in the city, roads are dirt and horses/4 wheelers roam freely......and I love it.
Location, my friend.
"Ultimately it was the wealthy lending to the less well off, and many of the well off have yet to realize how much they have lost."
Good point, although I think most of the Madoff victims have gotten the picture by now.
Another wild card is how much of wealthy people's money is tied up in houses owned for consumption. Maybe there will be a boom in reverse mortgages on Mansions. Almost everyone wants or needs to retire at some point. When you are paying $35K /year in property taxes on a McMansion or far more on a real mansion, it's not hard to bleed out and keel over if you can't maintain that multimillion dollar annual income.
CR, I hate to doubt you, but are you sure that the low-end saw a greater percentage increase in value than the high-end during the bubble? Here in SoCal they both saw over 100% growth, at least anecdotally.
What data do you have on this?
All this asset and status chasing is ridiculous.
I own some gold and I would let it go to 1 dollar an ounce if that meant people put renewed value on clean water, lush forests, & abundant wildlife. Gold is a bet that even after this crisis people will continue to chase status.
davjphys: in many places in California, local policy has to shift to make cheaper homes viable. Because property taxes are artificially constrained, many cities frontload their revenue by charging tens of thousands in "fees" for each new house. To make a return that pencils out, developers have opted to build larger houses that offer greater profit margin.
This dynamic will have to change in many parts of California to get you where you want to go.
Danny
I agree with you. Look at town homes in Manhattan easy a 7x increase in some places.
Haven't seen anything on CR about this, but wasn't a new 90 day foreclosure moratorium just passed in California? Effective immediately?
Effective Yesterday.
Danny, Case-Shiller has some great tiered price data. It definitely shows (for the areas I've looked at) that the lower price tier increased a greater percentage than the high priced tier.
best wishes
Danny, that California "moratorium" is for lenders without modification programs (at least that was my read). Most of the majors in California have approved programs ...
best wishes
Oh the pretty colors.
FINVIZ.com - Stock Screener
Passed in January, nominally effective yesterday, and with a loophole for companies that have FDIC based loan modification programs.
Jim the Realtor posted on it.
bubbleinfo.com » Page not found
It's much easier for a skinny person to double his weight than a fat person.
Thanks, CR, on both counts! Looks like you're right on the low end vs. high end. Low end did more than 3x growth during bubble. High end did about 2.5. But I still don't think a 60% fall is out of the question. The low end just might get an 80%.
"Bulls Bay/Atlantic."
Been shrimping on Bull's Bay many times. Not the place to be at night unless you really know the place - too easy to get lost or run aground.
U.S. Likely to Lose AAA Rating
U.S. likely to lose AAA rating: Prechter
| Reuters
What would happen if houses were to be lived in, rather than financial instruments to keep everyone in the consumption game after wages quite increasing in 1974?
I think we may find out.
Shill thanks for the link
Agree with Pretcher. New lows in the SP 500 by the end of the year
"Low end did more than 3x growth during bubble. High end did about 2.5."
Taking Bob Dobbs' point into account, it may be that we see a preponderance of high-end construction now that the bubble is over, which would add supply pressure on the high end.
I don't have any numbers to link, but this seems to make sense.
"The economy "is obviously heading toward a depression," despite the government's efforts to dodge one, said Prechter."
Prechter is harshing my green shoots.
Shill, thanks for the link. Not only is Prechter forecasting we'll lose our AAA by the end of 2011. He says "we are obviously heading toward a depression." Wow.
I agree with Prechter. Call it confirmation bias.
--bh
Well, hoocoodanode I was being optimistic when I told an OBX RE agent (in 2006)that I was going to wait until prices dropped 50%.
Even with 60% off beach houses are still nowhere near cash flow neutral but hey you gotta ride out the apocalypse somewhere.
OK, which one of you is Prechter?
"Prechter is harshing my green shoots."
If he's wrong then what will his name be - a hissing and a hooting? This is not like handicapping a horse race.
In upscale PHX/Scottsdale it's a seller's strike over $1mm just like it was a seller's strike the last 2 years around conforming., REO's already at 60% off.
"Even with 60% off beach houses are still nowhere near cash flow neutral but hey you gotta ride out the apocalypse somewhere. "
Well, beach houses -- almost never. Always somebody with money to burn. Me, I'd rather not worry about storm tides or cliff erosion or seawalls.
but how many depressions has Prechter predicted?
BA staff asked to work for one month gratis:
BBC NEWS | Business | BA asks staff to work for nothing
"Financial firms showered nearly $1 million in political cash on the United Food and Commercial Workers union in California while a top union leader sat on the boards of big public pension funds in the state, an analysis of campaign finance records shows."
Bribery is a crime for both giver and taker, no?
Danny -
Thanks, CR, on both counts! Looks like you're right on the low end vs. high end. Low end did more than 3x growth during bubble. High end did about 2.5. But I still don't think a 60% fall is out of the question. The low end just might get an 80%.
/snark on.
Well, Honolulu, HI is not part of the Case/Shiller 10 or 20, and I think the high end may have increased even more than the low end. Of course the low end is noticed a lot more when it goes from 200K to 600K, but no one really notices when a high end house goes from 800K to 5M except the tax man who just loves it. Of course the realtor's always say Hawaii is different and it can't happen here, so what me worry!
/snark off
Here is another interesting read:
BRICs May Buy Each Other’s Bonds in Shift From Dollar
BRICs May Buy Each Other’s Bonds in Shift From Dollar (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
I mean this is not the land of make believe I hope our powers that be are reading this stuff.
"BA staff asked to work for one month gratis:"
I thought you meant Bank of America. Anyone remember back in the '80s when BofA tried to persuade employees to "adopt an ATM" and keep the area around it clean -- for free? That one died as soon as the memo leaked (about five minutes).
High end sellers still haven't gotten the memo. In parts of California's LALA land: Westside of Los Angeles and posh Palo Alto/Atherton/Woodside/Portola Valley in the Bay Area, prices have dropped no more than 10%. The frenzy has disappeared and homes are sitting longer, but they sell.
Why? I asked around. And the answer seems to be simple: CASH. High end buyers at the absolute top of the market: Bel Air, N of Montana in Santa Monica, Mountain Home Drive in Woodside, etc. pay for most or all of their home in CASH. In the Bay Area, this is cash being showered from stock options, acquisitions and IPOs.
Having said that, there are some great blogs tracking the slowdown in high end California. These are two that I follow:
Westside Bubble
Santa Monica Distress Monitor
pavel.chichikov -
BA staff asked to work for one month gratis:
OK, I'll step out on a limb and say that is deflationary.
Bribery is a crime for both giver and taker, no?
Come on, yogi, you know political contributions are a protected form of free speech.
My dad hired a taxi-driver as a draftsman in Chicago in '39. Said he used to be an architect. Said he had 27 mansions building on Long Island in '29.
Many many more bad years to come. Many.
financial firms in bed with a union when it suits them, eh?
Mr Beach,
Good point, but for every wealthy person who owns an expensive house free and clear, there is a Michael Jackson type that gets in financial trouble and needs to sell. Not all of these situations are as lame or as public as the Neverland Ranch fiasco, but you might be surprised home many situations like this exist on a smaller and less public scale.
Does a high end downtown Miami/Miami Beach high rise condo count if it never got sold in the first
place?
Yeah, that one wasn't literal. But there is an SEC investigation:
"Sean Harrigan [2], the union's former executive director, is now under scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has charged several firms and individuals with making improper payments to win investments from pension funds in New York and New Mexico.
Harrigan, 62, stepped down from the board of the Los Angeles Fire and Police Pension [3] system last month in response to the SEC inquiry into his dealings while at the fund.
With Labor Leader on California Pension Boards, Financial Firms Fattened Union Campaign Fund - ProPublica
"You Can't Go Home Again" by Thomas Wolfe is a great read (fiction) of the time. You'll be stunned by the parallels.
Liz Yes it counts because some bank financed its construction and someone owns it
Not a pleasant place to be when you are middle aged with several kids about to enter college.
The college bubble will be the next to implode.
-- for every wealthy person who owns an expensive house free and clear --
... there is a community that needs to raise taxes.
BT where and when do you sit?
stick save--any takers?
one solution to the pension fund mess is to make it strictly pay-go. it's never a good idea to have such a larger pool of OPM, especially if the taxpayer is backstopping investment losses.
The college bubble will be the next to implode.
that or health care.
donning tin foil hat ( the full 4mil thick type )
CLEARLY this is all deliberate ! The govt. is running up huge deficits , allowing house prices to collapse, giving the Banksters a free ride and financing them with federal debt. in an attempt to destroy the system, thus institute anarchy and under the guise of saving the nation establish a new single party neo-socialist dictatorship, curbing basic rights and allowing for a new ruling elite to govern by birthright.
Leaping a bit off topic... as I'm reading other blogs and love good conspiracies theories
july in virginia.
"Sean Harrigan, the union's former executive director, is now under scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission
Soon Kenyans & Nigerians will be calling our system corrupt
splat,
get out of my colander. that's your only warning.
--bh
The college bubble will be the next to implode.
"that or health care. "
Basel College
Babyboomers in Congress won't let their generation suffer.
BT,
good luck.
virginia&Maryland are both very tough. Enjoy taking the exam in a suit.
--bh
sm_landlord: My point was that as long as cash buyers are out there, sellers in ultra-prime locations can hope to hold out. Of course, some will be pressured to sell and will be forced to sell at something less than their hoped for price. Cash buyers are the opposite end of the bank REO seller - they neither need financing or need to sell their previous home.
Case in point: at some point in the near future, Facebook will probably go publicly, instantly minting a stack of millionaires. These folks will enter the market and bid up homes with cash.
100% guarantee of anything is asking to be fleeced.
didn't the Harvard endowment managers already sh*t in the punchbowl?
There was an article a while back that estimated that Boomers that didn't hold property would come out just OK in retirement but Boomer that still had property were going to be hurting. How many of those upper end homes are held by Boomer? I'd assume a great many. I'm guessing the article was meant to illustrate the mobility needed to weather this economy. I wish I'd kept a copy of that article now.
Comrade Terry (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 6/16/2009 - 11:21 am "Bulls Bay/Atlantic."
Been shrimping on Bull's Bay many times. Not the place to be at night unless you really know the place - too easy to get lost or run aground.
They are on the south side....(Anderson Creek/Venning Creek) and if you look out the house, you are looking at the north tip of Bull Island. September can't come soon enough...
If you ever make it this way, give me a shout. matty at hughesmotors dot com
or stop by marker 67....green roof dock that has school's out and a Citadel flag flying.
Actually this all began with the "Man on the grassy knoll." It is all part of the Sioux Nations plot to regain control of the land they once used. After the birth of the 1st annointed white buffalo in 1961 they knew it was just a matter of time. Since then, using casino revenues and under Wayne Newtons guidance they have been on the march.
Good luck. Full time job for 3 weeks leading up if you can. And try my trick.
College bubble is already beginning to implode -- there was a very good article a few weeks back (Financial Times?) about how too many colleges had taken out large loans to build new buildings and "luxury" dorms, blithely expecting that they could continue to raise tuition 8% or more a year ad infinitum. Now that students no longer have access to both their parents' HELOC money and cheap, subsidized student loans, enrollments are dropping for expensive private institutions.
At the same time, on the other end of the equation, many of those colleges and universities were suckered into buying interest rate swaps (by financial "advisors") to protect themselves from rising rates on their loans. So now, with interest rates having dropped, they are forced to pay off not just the loans, but also the swaps, and have to do so with decreasing revenue.
Boomers that didn't hold property would come out just OK in retirement but Boomer that still had property were going to be hurting
I was kind of hoping for that.
Define "OK".
"or stop by marker 67....green roof dock that has school's out and a Citadel flag flying. "
Will do!
Then you'd find that too many people wouldn't find life worth living if they have to live it in a house w/only one bathroom (even if there's only 2 people who don't entertain overnight guests very often). Or without a huge kitchen even if a microwave and dishwasher are by far the most frequently used kitchen appliances. Or a dining room even if the family almost never sits down to a meal together.
From what I've observed, people's housing expectations have increased substantially. Just as they have for motor vehicles, both size & number--and it's definitely not "just" the much maligned baby boomers, it includes people in their 70's who had huge custom homes built to retire to because their friends did & they had to keep up (as in a friend's neighborhood in Eugene), or the 16 to 30 year olds that I see who have to have the big Ford/Dodge/Chevy pickup w/all the add-ons & fancy wheels. Maybe jacked up. Maybe a motorcycle too, and a dune buggy and an ATV and and and. They're all "necessary."
BT - only advice is don't try to outsmart the bar prep people. Do what they say and you will pass.
Markets are trading on imagination
Contrary to all the market noise, there are no signs of a significant economic recovery. So-called green shoots in the global economy are mostly due to inventory cycles. Stimuli might juice up growth a bit in the second half 2009. Nothing, however, suggests a lasting recovery. Markets are trading on imagination.
Long -- but a must read (via BR and Zerohedge):
Andy Xie: Tight Spot for Fed, Blind Spot for Investors
Colleges, These are the people who taught Americas finest in financial educated. What should we expect except double digit tuition increases and more student loans.
Chris Hedges: The American Empire Is Bankrupt -
Chris Hedges' Columns -
Truthdig
It is the first formal step by our major trading partners to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. If they succeed, the dollar will dramatically plummet in value, the cost of imports, including oil, will skyrocket, interest rates will climb and jobs will hemorrhage at a rate that will make the last few months look like boom times. State and federal services will be reduced or shut down for lack of funds. The United States will begin to resemble the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe
Inverted Hammer of Thor -
College bubble is already beginning to implode --
I understand we are seeing a massive increase in the enrolment in community colleges due to lower cost, and a drop off in the more expensive ones.
There will be an increase in people needing to re-train, but I think the only boom will be the lower end schools, C get degrees and do I need an Ivy League degree to get a crappy job?
Splat
Leaping a bit off topic... as I'm reading other blogs and love good conspiracies theories Wink
Last I check Splat the conspiracy theorist have been dead on so far...Obviously your glasses are way to thick , trying thinking sometimes....with your brain that is.
I read somewhere that in many states an endowment fund can not be withdrawn below the original contributions level - that the beneficiary can only spend the capital gains and interest on the funds... So no wonder a lot of these colleges have fired up the fund raising engine.....
My last semester at college I shared a house with 9 people in 8 rooms. 1 bathroom, no TV's.
Most. Fun. Ever.
Oh, yeah, $98/month.
albrt,
I disagree.
BAR/BRI materials o.k. Attendance--> worthless.
Pay for materials, form your own outlines, do it yourself.
--bh
"do I need an Ivy League degree to get a crappy job?"
only when the ivy MBA is managing the McDonalds
Here comes Final Hour..... everyone got your bets down?
9 people and one bathroom! There must have always been a line...
Buy Chinese
China has introduced an explicit “Buy Chinese” policy as part of its economic stimulus programme in a move that will amplify tensions with trade partners and increase the likelihood of protectionism around the world.
In an edict released jointly by nine government departments, Beijing said government procurement must use only Chinese products or services unless they were not available within the country or could not be bought on reasonable commercial or legal terms.
Mr. Beach,
Once again, I agree with you. But it's important to point out that hope and casino winnings are not a business plan. You'll always have pro athletes, pop stars, trustifarians, and lucky gamblers. Just not enough to prop up the whole high-end market. And not all of these folks will be able to maintain the ongoing costs of ownership.
Take a look at what's happening in Malibu, for example.
Rally May Be Over After Touching 950, Morgan Strategist Says
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com
Oh please say it is not so, MS?
College athletics have been good at throwing money away.
When UVA opened it's John Paul Jones basketball arena in 2006 they got Michael "let's get ready to rumble!" Buffer to do the intro - for a cool $50K.
There were trees behind the house. The women were low-maintenance.
MySpace Fires 30% of U.S. Workers as Ad Sales Decline
MySpace Fires 30% of U.S. Workers as Ad Sales Decline (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
my word!
CR -
Thanks to the link for the tiered pricing.
Lowest tiers went up furthest and fastest, and have dropped the most on a percentage basis.
Here in Socal, it was the bottom end of the market where the mortgage brokers made their money with outright fraud, selling crapola products to people who were convinced that the prices would always go up, and they could serially refinance.
Looking at the tiers for Los Angeles, I think there's plenty of room for falling prices over time. John Chiang's latest State Controller's report showed that California income tax collections had dropped over 20% year to date. That's a lot of income that people won't have to buy houses, and a lot of houses going into foreclosure.
[The asteroid quakes]
C-3PO: Sir, it's quite possible this asteroid is not entirely stable.
Han Solo: Not entirely stable! I'm glad you're here to tell us these things.
Substitute asteroid with green shoots or economy, and this is what I am feeling today.....
When UVA opened it's John Paul Jones basketball arena in 2006
At least the 'Hoos were smart enough to get a hedgie to buy the stadium before the markets imploded.
Facebook better start making money before their IPO - Didn't they just go to Russia to raise cash to keep their money losing enterprise operational?
That is correct in Michigan...Killing all sorts of non-profits....
//I read somewhere that in many states an endowment fund can not be withdrawn below the original contributions level - that the beneficiary can only spend the capital gains and interest on the funds//
do I need an Ivy League degree to get a crappy job?
Maybe not, but the Ivy League schools will continue to thrive.
rb -
Maybe not, but the Ivy League schools will continue to thrive.
I do agree, the networking and prestige is still there, I just don't know if it is worth the cost. But it's far to late for me.
Wahoowa!
Eric, you're a hoo aren't you? I went thru McIntire.
There were trees behind the house. The women were low-maintenance.
That is the first line of a novel, if I ever saw one. Beats the pants off Hemingway
In the late summer of that year we lived in a house in a village that looked across the river and the plain to the mountains.
If you have an Ivy League degree, it gives your boss bragging rights when he displays your burger wrapping skills...
Back in the 1980's I owned a full service carwash - I had several minimum wage employees who had advanced degrees, even one guy who had been an officer in the Marines... I would say that all of them had found their natural level at minimum wage, and their credentials, if real, were just the result of them being shuffled through the system even though they were incompetent and could not possibly have passed any real tests. I think the same way every time I see someone who claims a lot of credentials, has some kind of high paying job where they dont actually produce anything, and cant form a proper sentence or spell properly.
There is a part of the world where performance matters, not credentials, and this is where true value is created....
And in other Ponzi news:
"NEW YORK, June 15, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- IntercontinentalExchange , a leading operator of regulated global futures exchanges, clearing houses and over-the-counter (OTC) markets, today announced that ICE Trust U.S.(TM) (ICE Trust) has surpassed $1 trillion in cleared credit default swaps (CDS) since operations began on March 9, 2009. Open interest at ICE Trust currently stands at $145 billion, representing an 86% reduction in notional value outstanding. ICE Trust also set a weekly clearing record of $247 billion in notional value for the week ending June 12, on transaction volume of 2,330 contracts. Since launch, the total number of transactions cleared is 12,050."
Yeah only 145 billion. If no counterparties break the chain letter, I believe.
John Paul Jones?
wasn't that guy in the monkees or something
As if X & Y chrono zones will pick up the slack, and snatch up overpriced cribs in the near future from failed Boomers...
Led Zep!!!
Bass and Keyboards in Led Zepplin...
Comrade Elmer Fudd (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/16/2009 - 3:14 pm
John Paul Jones?
wasn't that guy in the monkees or something
WOW! I MEAN WOW!
Now runs a hedge fund... amazing how so many of the idols of our youth have sold out.
K_K,
I agree 100%. In fact, most universities, even the expensive private ones, have been effectively degree mills for a while now. It was a natural progression from government subsidy, just like the housing bubble. People fresh out of high school are given no down-payment, deferred-interest loans (that in recent years have begun to rival mortgage payments), thus driving demand and inflating prices.
The interesting difference is that, with the college bubble, it was the buyers who gained the advantages (minus price, obviously) as a result of the wide supply of college educations available. Whereas with houses, with their perceived shortage ( "they aren't making any more land" and "housing only goes up"), the sellers could make absurd requests, like "feed the squirrels", with colleges it was the buyers who began making requests, as they had the power to take their inflated tuition payments elsewhere. So colleges became very concerned about making sure their students passed, regardless of merit, as students will transfer out of schools that are too hard (or, if they fail out, they stop paying also). From this "buyer leverage", if you will, follows the logic of building luxury dorms and shiny new classroom towers with wifi and flat panel TVs in the lobby, as the students are no longer apprentices paying for the advantage of being imparted valuable knowledge, but rather customers, paying for an accredited name on a piece of sheepskin with a shiny gold seal.
Take away the subsidy, however, and a (private) college education again becomes something only for the wealthy, or the very dedicated. And again, I think this parallels very well with the housing bubble -- the problem isn't necessarily the subsidy, it's the extent of the subsidy. Just as we shouldn't do away with mortgages, we shouldn't do away with student loans, either. If the student can't possibly afford $50K a year for a private school, he shouldn't be given a loan for it. Give him a loan for $10K for a state school.
No different than saying someone who makes that $50K a year shouldn't be given a loan for a $500K house; it's not the loan that's the problem, it's the size of the loan and the creditworthiness of the borrower. Because in both cases, at an individual level it creates financial problems for the borrower of too much debt, but at a macro level it can directly affect markets, and thus the price, quality, and supply of the products involved, be it education or housing.
ShadowInventory,
Bingo! Degrees do not make you smart or able to function. Performance does.
Does a high end downtown Miami/Miami Beach high rise condo count if it never got sold in the first
place?
And it seems that the condo doesn't even have to be in Florida to fail. In DC, there's a new condo complex called the Floridian that the developer just gave back to the lenders.
Eric, you're a hoo aren't you? I went thru McIntire.
class of '88. Echols scholar, TKE.
It looks like many a Boomer are gonna end up hanging out in Davy Jones locker, underwater.
We respected one another, but anyone who stayed in the shower too long risked an emergency visitor. No lock...
Well if it was coed, that shower could get crowded...
"My last semester at college I shared a house with 9 people in 8 rooms. 1 bathroom, no TV's.
Most. Fun. Ever."
The story would be better if it were sharing a one bedroom house with 8 girls and one bed.
I think the best way to figure out where home prices will bottom is to go to the year 1998 and use those prices.
Here comes the hand of JPM, belting out above-market buy orders for 5000 SPY every 50 msec. Trying for stick-save.
The Unabankers are setting off time-bonds all over the place...
Pretty sure there was a famous J.P. Jones pre-rock 'n roll.
American Naval Commander -
it's john tudor jones, not john paul jones, who's the Wahoo hedgie.
thanks for the advice on the bar. i'll be double-dipping the regular and patent bars this summer, so the next five weeks are going to be fun.
I let my elders and betters in the NWO or ZOG do the thinking for me. How's the tin foil hat, not too tight I hope ?
ZackAttack,
Are you joking about the previous stick-save, or is that actually happening again at this very moment? Do you have real-time info? Not being critical, just genuinely curious.
yeah, i couldn't figure naming an arena after a monkee, but led zep, that's classy
ShadowInventory -
I think the same way every time I see someone who claims a lot of credentials, has some kind of high paying job where they dont actually produce anything, and cant form a proper sentence or spell properly.
At times I think I fit that description, thank God for spell checkers.
If sitting for NY, take Pieper. The man's a loon but I destroyed the bar exam.
"There is a part of the world where performance matters, not credentials, and this is where true value is created.... "
It's a shame that theory can't be applied to the executive level more than it is currently sigh
@ Kahuna
Could be too much homebrew...
"i'll be double-dipping the regular and patent bars this summer"
Which state? The patent bar isn't too tough, although it's much easier if you've already had some patent work experience (I had worked for a year at a patent boutique before taking it and I still did no better than a wild guess on most of the PCT questions). Get to know your friendly 37 C.F.R. and you should be OK.
Good luck.
As the property pendulum swings hard the other way on the downside, would 2x salary be about right, in terms of future value?
Damn. When I saw the Led Zep reference I thought someone was making a market analogy, "This sucker's going down like a ..."
Which incidentally is how the band got its name.
would 2x salary be about right, in terms of future value?
Historically, yes.
"Then you'd find that too many people wouldn't find life worth living if they have to live it in a house w/only one bathroom (even if there's only 2 people who don't entertain overnight guests very often)."
Homebuilders can adapt to this fussiness; break off the toilet into a separate water closet (and I mean closet) like the old days. Lived in an old Victorian flat that had that setup. Made it possible for four adults to share a 3-br/1 bath flat comfortably. These days, you can even get a combo toilet with a small sink built into the top if you don't want to hike elsewhere to wash your hands.
But mainly -- they'll get used to it. No -- rather, they'll redefine who they are and what's really important. I hear there was a lot of that in the '30s. There always is -- when reality holds a gun to your head.
@ Juv
Agreed.
2X
Why is it the msn money thinks it is a good thing for housing starts to be up, and I
think it is a bad thing?
Possible foreclosure client's loan only 100k. here's one with hope I think. But no,
units in Soggy Bay are selling at 29-30 k!!!
HomeGnome - Could be too much homebrew...
Sticking with coffee right now, watching for the pump today just for kicks.
I still can't rack my head around the optimism, do people think super sizing the deficit is actually a good thing?
Well, I'll try to quite down and read all the links and good information coming out. Just wanted to be a gadfly for a short time.
the only ad that comes up when you Google Orangevale, CA (I was wondering where exactly it is):
Bankruptcy Attorney
Pigged again.
"I think the same way every time I see someone who claims a lot of credentials, has some kind of high paying job where they dont actually produce anything, and cant form a proper sentence or spell properly."
A friend edits course descriptions and program descriptions for the course catalog of a good-sized public university. These are written by the faculty and staff.
Believe me.... you wouldn't believe me if I told you how bad much of the writing is -- not even counting the grammar and punctuation errors, which were many and egregious.
Oddly enough, the engineers tend to do a better job than the lit people.
9 people and one bathroom! There must have always been a line...
P. U.
I hope you bought odorizers by the closet load.
well "BOB", you are a genius afterall...
I agree, Gary. I read it 18 months ago or so (fun life the guy led), and the parallels to the go-go '00s were stunning.
Flipping, flipping, flipping, until the party ended in Catawba.
Eric, you're a hoo aren't you? I went thru McIntire.
Oh dear...that explains a LOT...next up will be the Darden kiddies.
Comrade Scott (CLAS '90).
I am finding it increasingly annoying how the news media mindlessly reports financial non-predictions as if they were newsworthy. An Analyst stating that something "may" happen does not qualify as either a prediction or news in my book. A huge asteroid may strike the Earth in the next five years. An earthquake may level San Fanfransco this year. Sarah Palin may run for President in 2012. etc...