Housing Starts May

``We're nearing a bottom,'' Adam York, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. `

Thanks CR........the graph puts it ALL into better perspective - eyeballs are barely above waterline but we're still in the toilet.

Not first, but better than the all time low of 4th.

Here's the first set of marks for the double-dip cliff divers of Houseapulco...

5.9, 5.8, 6.0, 5.8, 5.9, 5.7

Higher starts and Permits are not good news. First rule of holes people: it applies to foundations. If you find yourself in a hole stop digging!

Gotta work off that inventory before building is a good thing once again.

That means the shadow inventory, too.

How is an increase in supply good for an already oversupplied market?

"Were nearing a bottom" and somebody doesn't wipe

Synchronized Sinking really ought to be in the next Olympics...

More houses are built during the spring/summer? Who would have thought?

The YoY numbers don't look very green shoot to me.

the bottom may be similar to Westmoreland's '...light at the end of the tunnel...', or MacArthur's '...we'll be home by Christmas Eve...'

the key word is " a bottom" and there are lots and lots of them out there.
grasping at straws

TARP: the numbers are seasonally adjusted

Just so we are clear.

The surprise 77.1% jump in multi-unit starts May v. April 2009 is still 54.6% less than May 2008. Remember when honest statisticians used to include cautions against comparing volatile month to month figures and suggested y-o-y figures were more reliable?

And with the new California "Get Well More Gooder" foreclosure moratorium plan, F/Cs will show us "a better day" in the state.

enthusiasm snark / off

Thanks, Dirk - so you're saying that these numbers can and probably are fudged too. Smile

I don't know if I believe in a bottom for housing starts this year. With mortgage rates up and the flood of forecloses homes, I think we need to think like Cubs fans: Wait till next year.

“All successful revolutions are the kicking in of a rotten door.”

John Kenneth Galbraith

Does anyone know what the atrition rate per year or month are on houses? There must be some minimum replacement level due to age/disaster damage, etc.

Good, now we'll have even more houses we can pay people to demolish. It's all starting to remind me of the "Society for Putting Things on Top of Other Things".

I thank you, gentlemen. The year has been a good one for the Society (hear, hear). This year our members have put more things on top of other things than ever before. But, I should warn you, this is no time for complacency. No, there are still many things, and I cannot emphasize this too strongly, not on top of other things. I myself, on my way here this evening, saw a thing that was not on top of another thing in any way. (shame!) Shame indeed but we must not allow ourselves to become too despondent. For, we must never forget that if there was not one thing that was not on top of another thing our society would be nothing more than a meaningless body of men that had gathered together for no good purpose. But we flourish. This year our Australasian members and the various organizations affiliated to our Australasian branches put no fewer than twenty-two things on top of other things. (applause) Well done all of you. But there is one cloud on the horizon. In this last year our Staffordshire branch has not succeeded in putting one thing on top of another (shame!). Therefore I call upon our Staffordshire delegate to explain this weird behaviour.

Society for Putting Things on Top of Other Things / Escape (from film)

This is like that wonderful Bloomberg quote from last night: ". . . conditions, after deteriorating significantly, have begun to stop worsening."

(Only about 199 chopping days till xmas...)

Dashing through their dough

In a most consumerist way

O’er the fields of cash-flow

Never saved any pay

Bells of exit do ring

Making spirits fright

What fun it is to laugh and sing

A foreclosure song tonight

Oh, jingle mail, jingle mail

Jingle all the way

Oh, what fun it was to ride

Until the time came to pay

Jingle mail, jingle mail

Jingle all the way

A 43 Cent stamp on an envelope

Ought to get it there ok…

PPI YOY down 5%. Largest drop since 1949.

I've got to imagine a lot of these "starts" in multifamily construction are builders facing "use it or lose it" loan covenants.

"Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other"

Exhibit A - U.S. Housing Starts Soared in May; Permits Also Rose

532 thousand total Housing fits and starts in May.

Yeah, we're at the bottom!!!

Housing starts rise in May - Jun. 16, 2009

"If there is any good news in the picture, it is that the correction in the housing market is complete and the overshooting which normally occurs after a correction has appeared," the report said.

Buy now or blah blah.

I've got to imagine a lot of these "starts" in multifamily construction are builders facing "use it or lose it" loan covenants.

Yep, there's one of those down the street from me. Condo sales aren't exactly brisk and they've had no luck finding an anchor tenant for the ground floor commercial space but it sure is a nice-looking empty building.

"The study of money, above all other fields in economics, is one in which complexity is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal it."

J.K. Galbraith

"If there is any good news in the picture, it is that the correction in the housing market is complete and the overshooting which normally occurs after a correction has appeared," the report said.

Maybe CR could include that as a caption to his housing starts graph with an arrow pointing to this month's almost invisible "overshooting"?

Who is going to buy those houses? Who will live in them?

//532 thousand total Housing fits and starts in May.//

Name a Justice who has proven to be less right wing than assumed and cite a case, please.

Earl Warren and almost every decision during the Warren Court
Warren Burger

Who is going to buy these houses? with what? jobs? what about competition from foreclosures and specs?

//It is still too early to call the bottom for single family starts in January, however I do expect single family housing starts to bottom sometime in 2009.//

This is a really interesting contrast to the previous thread on record credit card defaults . Who do we believe ?

BTW - why is the April un-revised number the headline, when the revised April is only 4% off the May number with a 1.7% margin of error? (+/-)

Do we still have that?

//Due Process//

@Lucifer - isn't 'due process' anti-you? Smile

This is actually good news for the patient fence sitters. Adding more supply to a glut willl only further depress housing prices.

Keep building dingbats. Even I might become a buyer when houses really go on sale in a year or two.

Over shoot = green shoot to the Angry Saver. Now that is prosperity!

"When you see reference to a new paradigm you should always, under all circumstances, take cover. Because ever since the great tulipmania in 1637, speculation has always been covered by a new paradigm. There was never a paradigm so new and so wonderful as the one that covered John Law and the South Sea Bubble — until the day of disaster."

J.K. Galbraith

UCLA predicts 60,000 CA state worker layoffs. The laid off state workers are going to need some place to live outside of Sacramento, so they will probably buy up some of the new housing being built. /snarky off

Sure, BT, but the comment referred to the previous one which claimed it for several current Justices on a "centrist" Court.

@Coinz - don't you mean rent houses after they walk away from their Sacramento mortgages?

Angry Saver,

My thoughts exactly. I see lots of listed homes here in the Triangle area of NC that have been listed since early spring (or even earlier) with no movement and very little activity. Most of these are probably in the upper $300K / lower $400K range. I'm quite glad if they want to add more supply to what is obviously a glutted market. The wife is now fully onboard with continuing to rent until there is a true sign of prices bottoming - which we both feel is quite a ways out.

There's been a few cases of price capitulation (40-50% drop in asking price), but most people are still holding on to their fantasy value from 2006.

Digital money is the new paradigm...

It didn't exist in any other financial crisis, and hides well.

on the current court?

i don't count Souter, since he was appointed by Bush Senior, who is a lot more moderate and centrist than people assume. the only one really is Reagan-appointee Kennedy, who i think has become enamored with being THE swing vote.

Except he's been moving right lately.

“The people that once bestowed commands, consulships, legions, and all else, now concerns itself no more, and longs eagerly for just two things - bread and circuses”


Basel Too - wasn't John Paul Stevens a Nixon appointee?

mr sparkle
he was a ford appointee
maybe same thing as nixon

@gaby - I just looked it up. Appointed by Nixon to appellate and by Ford to the Supreme Court.

The whole Court has moved to the right on many issues since Rehnquist, so Stevens and Souter appeared to moved left, but many feel they've held their ground.

"Housing starts jump; Permits surge"

.... to a level 28% below last year????


Besides the concern on when we will reach the actual bottom, the other concern is how long it will take to burn through the excess inventory that has accumulated during the real estate bubble. My thoughts on this issue differ from the 1.5 - 2 year recovery being touted by various group. I would invite meaningful comments disproving this position.

When is George’s House Going to be Worth $500,000 Again? « Southern Real Estate Opportunities

Have no fear though... home prices have bottomed. I wonder if there'll ever be any accountability for this:


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