Before the pig showed up, I was gonna say that anybody who thinks NBER will call the bottom in June must think NBER is somebody's lackey.
I don't think they are. All NBER cares about is getting it right. So, if they call June as the bottom, it won't be any time soon but rather long after the fact. More likely they'll call the bottom sometime in 2010.
I'd advise anybody who is freaking out about PMs or commodities today not to dump.
I expect PMs and commodities to do pretty well going forward, after a little expected turbulence in the air here.
Spoke to a realtor in the Triangle area of NC this weekend at a social event. She said that this spring was good for properties under $150K b/c of the $8K tax credit and low rates. Everything above $200K really wasn't moving. Worse, the low end stuff seems to have peaked in the last couple months.
rich, there might be a long delay this time from NBER - if the recession ends soon, I'd guess the NBER will announce it sometime in 2010. I think the data might be confusing for some time.
The recession will end when the depression begins.
The NBER is useless. Today's eCONomists either have social agendas or they work for wall street and are thus required to lie in order to sell financial products.
Excess leverage against declining/stagnant incomes against inflated asset values = depression.
No soup lines. Just a painful adjustment. Very painful.
Rich, without a doubt the NBER will not make a call for a long time, I would think the earliest would be in about December, and when they do it will be back dated. However, what is of interest is when they do make the call, when will they say it ended. The new claims data suggests it could be around now, but I dont see a lot of other confirmation of that in other data. At most we see a slowing in the rate of decline, not an increase. Watch the IP/CU numbers later this week. MFG Cap Utitilization (CU) also has a history of bottoming out right around when the NBER eventually makes the call as the end of a recession. Thus if we see a fairly singnificant increase in mfg CU it means when the NBER finally gets around to making its call late in the 4th quarter or sometime in 2010, they will say the recession ended in June. If CU continues to fall, then the end of the recession will be at a later date.
Today's the deadline for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature to close a $24.3 billion deficit so the state controller can get emergency loans to help California avoid running out of cash next month.
What's the deadline for getting emergency tequila shots to the local alcoholics that are starting to sober up?
Rich, without a doubt the NBER will not make a call for a long time, I would think the earliest would be in about December, and when they do it will be back dated.
I don't know. If it suits the needs of the new Animal Spirits Economic Recovery Commission it might be declared over sooner rather than later.
it's going to be all right. We ve got NORAD tracking REIT goose; AIG & GS coordinating anti default defence at Edwards AFB. MER is launching new UAVs daily to monitor CRE movements and maintain visible presence. Air Force one is jamming and blocking the cool north Atlantic sentiment. Helicopter Ben is conducting Cov Op. to eliminate drought and maintain liquidity.
we can all sleep tight today. yes we can. : (
"A real credible budget that (Wall Street) would believe in,"
If that is the standard CA should have absolutely no problem. After everything that has happened on Wall Street to use them as the measure of "credibility" is just amazing. If there is one cause for our economic mess it is that we have let Wall Street be the arbiter of what is or is not good policy. I had hoped that with the election of BHO that would have changed. Unfortunately that has happened if anything he has perpetuated the kow towing to Wall street.
True but debt is just one part of the equation. Government policy including education and demographics play a larger part IMO of whether or not a nation is successful... Success is all relative anyways.
That is precisely why I am so bearish on the US. Why would you want to invest in a country that is structurally broken when there are a myriad of opportunities elsewhere.
For example: Invest in Nordstrom in the US or a Chinese retail store chain?
Money doesn’t grow on trees for most of America. We sit down at our kitchen tables and write out checks to the phone-company, electric company, credit card-company, mortgage-company, and auto finance company every month. We clip coupons and go to the grocery store every week to put food in the mouths of our children. This is what our parents did before us.
True but debt is just one part of the equation. Government policy including education and demographics play a larger part IMO of whether or not a nation is successful... Success is all relative anyways.
Perhaps. But my personal experience at least is that people who are irresponsible with debt tend to be irresponsible with other aspects of their life.
I don't see a country that makes promises it can't keep on a daily basis doing other things well. Likewise I don't see that a government which encourages its citizens to make promises that they can't keep otherwise engaging in productive policy.
My math is rusty, but if we keep going down this path, don't we get a constant?
That's where those "animal spirits" muck everything up.
The derivative of the animal spirits function at any point is another animal spirits function. Repeatedly taking the derivative of an animal spirits function between points m and n where n > m may yield an arbitrarily large number of different animal spirits functions.
It's been a long time since I've done teh calculas. Are there any actual mathematical constructs like that?
I heeded your advice in Jan of this year, took the profits and banked them. What commodities are you looking at besides oil?
ps. jumped into utilities a month or so before you so we seem to be thinking along similar lines.
I watched the movie "Planet of the Apes" the other night. The last scene reminds me of our economy.
they blew it up
I have a friend who walked onto the set of Planet of The Apes in Zuma Beach in the middle of the night high on acid---
It was a defining moment in his life.
"It's been a long time since I've done teh calculas. Are there any actual mathematical constructs like that?"
I'm pretty sure that something with a couple of trig functions multiplied by an exponential term with, say a cube root and at least one term that requires the chain rule thrown in for good measure could give you what you're looking for.
I'm pretty sure that something with a couple of trig functions multiplied by an exponential term with, say a cube root and at least one term that requires the chain rule thrown in for good measure could give you what you're looking for.
BTW, taking the derivative of an animal spirits function at a point whose truncated absolute value corresponds to a prime number leads to an animal spirits function with a countably infinite number of animal spirits functions as its first derivative and an uncountably infinite number of animal spirits functions as its second derivative (the overall derivative of A(x) called A'(x) being the set of all those animal spirits functions evaluated at each point).
ac, crash - if you're trying to impress potential bank employers, this might be the wrong blog.
I'm trying to remember everything I learned about calculus but didn't really understand and put it all into one sentence that's too confusing for people to understand that I don't understand what I put in the sentence.
In general it works well for the economists and accountants. Why not me too?
I find this very hard to believe. You know when you are dodging taxes!
Lawmakers want IRS to suspend tax shelter penalty
The penalties cannot be appealed, National Taxpayer Advocate Nina Olsen said in her 2008 annual report. Olsen, an independent watchdog within the IRS, cited a case in which a small business owner saved $45,000 over three years from a tax shelter and was fined $900,000 by the IRS.
"The statute as written can impose unconscionable hardship on taxpayers," she wrote. "In practice, the requirement that this penalty be imposed without regard to culpability may have the effect of bankrupting middle class families who had no intention of entering into a tax shelter, an outcome that has dismayed even hardened IRS enforcement personnel."
d/dx(e^x) = e^x The derivative of the exponential function with base e (2.71. . .) is another exponential function, e^x. So an exponentially decaying thing with this function decays at the same rate forever. Of course, economic activity can't get arbitrarily small, so at least we have that! Well, assuming no economic activity is not an option.
I don't get it. S&P is down 2%, WTF is the government action. Don't they know that you ve got to be ether PROACTIVE or Free Market Oriented / Capitalist?
Must be the printer ink shortages, and it's only been what, 18 months? Didn't the Lenin specified the order of takeovers: Radio, Telephone (telegraph), Printing press and only later banks, heavy manufacturing, etc?
Amateurs!
"In devising new regulations and oversight, the administration is looking to address four perceived weaknesses in the current system:
The lack of an all-seeing federal entity to detect institutional stresses that threaten the financial system, and the government's inability to step in and unwind large institutions before they choke the system. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. can do this with banks. But the government lacked the power to do the same with a behemoth such as the insurer American International Group Inc."
Don't buy this myth perpetuated by the MSM. Whether or not the FDIC can step in and unwind large institutions before they choke the system, THEY DON''T. Corus is the proof.
Corus should have been among the first banks the FDIC took over in this downturn.
The FDIC should have done it two years ago, when Corus kept on throwing huge construction loans at more and more high-rise condos clustered in bubble markets.
Not only didn't the FDIC step in. They've let Corus drag on as a beyond-zombie bank far, far too long, and even after the rats abandoned ship. And still, the FDIC has not said one word about monitoring loan concentrations or risks in insured banks, or regulations that would prohibit the kind of reckless risk-taking that Corus took, using money they got from depositors not because they are big or solid or reputable -- but only because they could offer FDIC insurance.
I saw a Kodak commercial during the NBA finals that identified inkjet ink as the most expensive liquid known to man. If Timmy has been using his inkjet for all of the printing, he might have just come to the conclusion that the unit cost per newly printed $100 bill is now greater than the face value of said bill.
iceman, here in Chapel Hill, nothing is moving above 417k. Had a beer...well ok a couple of beers, with some builders here in Chapel Hill and they have finished most of what they had but nothing in the pipeline with one exception...cheap multiplex retirement stuff for boomers moving down from the north.
I'm pretty sure that "countably infinite" is one of the more unique oxymorons I've heard in quite a while.
I think it's a real term though used in set theory.
So the set of natural numbers (1, 2, 3, 4...) are countably infinite while the set of real numbers are not (because you can always find another real number in between any two different real numbers no matter how close together they get).
The PPT appears to be fighting a spirited rear guard action at the 6/1 gap open. They're holding their ground so far. The 3PM reinforcements should be a big help.
rich,
100% agree...there are dozens, if not hundreds of banks that are insolvent by any measure and yet the FDIC took down zero banks last week? It's a travesty...
"Countably infinite" is, indeed a term used in mathematics, but uncountability is different than what you describe, and proving that the real numbers are uncountable is typically done with the cantor diagonal argument.
@Panda - the FDIC is rationing failures. It wouldn't do to run out of cash before the end of summer. They just needed to make a few bucks before taking out Corus (or is that 'taking Corus out'?)
....nothing being built here except the prison. Most of the residents don't want it, we have an empty prison an hour from here, and apparently we need another one. Life is grand with an unlimited checkbook.
I understand that the FDIC has to ramp up and get people trained; but they've got a $500 billion line to work with. Use these small town banks as on the job training.
Reply to crazyv: shill- I think you missed the best part -- "A real credible budget that (Wall Street) would believe in,"
Yes, I was ROFLMAO when I read that particular sentence.
"I had hoped that with the election of BHO that would have changed. Unfortunately that has happened if anything he has perpetuated the kow towing to Wall street."
Crazyv: sadly I didn't actually have that hope, but on the (bright?) side, he has rather quickly turned out to be worse than I thought. (The 'bright' bit being that for about 6 weeks after election day, I thought that he might not be as bad as I feared. So I had six weeks of hope...)
Loving 'green chutes,' by the way. Think we oughta spread that meme, rather than the faux 'nearing bottom' meme. I want a t-shirt... hmmm, might make one... hey I know... I'll swipe the traveller's logo, color it green & then show a person jumping off cliff with holding onto the green 'chute...
From the above post "Calif wants to cut legal aid attorneys for poor"
Adachi said his office would be devastated and would have to fire 15 to 20 attorneys, about 20 percent of his staff.
Then, he said, "The whole system would begin to fail."
REBear - Adachi misses the point - no lawyers for the poor means faster case processing. The system should speed up significantly, along with judgements in favor of the not-poor.
Shouldn't builder confidence be going up with all these green shoots ?
I guess all these builders haven't been following the party line of Timmah, Git-nerd, or Krugman, ie. Close eyes, cross fingers and say to yourself "I know it's getting better.. I know it's getting better.. " over and over until everything is rosy !
Either that or they didn't get in on any sweet infrastructure stimulus projects
So he thinks a completely bankrupt state would work better for him how exactly ?
CA pisses away $ on all manner of non-essentials. In the mail over the weekend I get a letter from one of the state agencies telling me how I can get a free booklet from the state department of BS about some state run BS scheme or other.. Seriously that's just one example of where all the $ in this state is going to.
sigh if it wasn't for the weather and lifestyle....
One trader on Thursday bought 20,000 July VIX calls at the 45 strike and sold 55 strike calls for an overall premium of 42.5 cents in a trade that cost about $850,000 to execute. The net impact is that the VIX would have to beat the 45.42 level by the July expiration for the investor to make money. The VIX hasn't been past 40 since April 21.
Cinncinnati has a pension shortfall of close to 1B itself...
By Jeremy R. Cooke
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Credit ratings on Ohio’s $9.6 billion of debt were cut by Moody’s Investors Service as the state’s manufacturing-based economy shrinks more than the nation’s.
Moody’s reduced its assessment of Ohio’s $6.8 billion of general obligation bonds to Aa2, the third-highest grade, from Aa1, the New York-based rating company said in a news release today. Ohio debt with payments subject to appropriation was cut to Aa3, the fourth highest, from Aa2
I worked for a while for a non-profit legal agency. Not the best help, but not the worse. Some were really passioante about and burned out in less than 2 years. Really good attorneys were hard to find because of law school debt.
No state needs to pay for legal aid work right now. With all the unemployed lawyers out there, there are privately-funded legal aid foundations that are actually turning away lawyers*. My wife's firm, which used to "require" 40 hours of pro-bono work per lawyer per year, recently said NO MORE to avoid competing with the out-of-work lawyers. Right now is perhaps the best time ever to be broke and in need of redress.
lawyers that do pro-bono work need to work for some agency so they can be covered under some malpractice insurance policy.
@crash - busy placing our bets on whether the PPT will push stocks, or keep the pressure on the dollar and treasuries instead. (or some combination of both)
"I worked for a while for a non-profit legal agency. Not the best help, but not the worse. Some were really passioante about and burned out in less than 2 years. Really good attorneys were hard to find because of law school debt."
What? With all that pro bono help out there just itching to be helpful?
Momentum builds for broad debate on legalizing pot
NEW YORK (AP) -- The savage drug war in Mexico. Crumbling state budgets. Weariness with current drug policy. The election of a president who said, "Yes -- I inhaled."
These developments and others are kindling unprecedented optimism among the many Americans who want to see marijuana legalized.
Doing so, they contend to an ever-more-receptive audience, could weaken the Mexican cartels now profiting from U.S. pot sales, save billions in law enforcement costs, and generate billions more in tax revenue from one of the nation's biggest cash crops.
They are pretty powerless to stop people from smoking pot right now (a good argument for legalization I suppose), so how on earth do they think they will collect taxes on it if it were legal?
Treasury-Altered Reality Plan (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/15/2009 - 12:42 pm @BR - especially when the dog has nuclear teeth
Not really relevant. What are we going to do, threaten to nuke China and Russia if they don't lend us more money. That'd work real long, not.
Nukes ultimately made America into a nation of suckers who believe you can get anything you want by pointing a revolver at someone's face. Great in the economic short run, worst thing that ever happened to us over the multigenerational timespan.
Treasury says loans held by 21 largest banks getting bailout support fell again in April
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Treasury Department says the value of loans held by the 21 largest institutions getting federal bailout support fell in April, the fifth decline in six months.
The department's monthly report of lending activity says that average loan balances at the 21 institutions totaled $4.34 trillion in April, down 0.8 percent from March.
If they legalize pot, Mexico will be in even worse shape. The drug gangs will just turn into violent thieves all the time. Except when they are raping.
Legalized pot might put the tobacco companies back in business. They could create designer brands with different flavors and effects. There are as many varieties of weed as there are of coffee. North Carolina would boom. Of course, alcohol companies will fight it along with the law enforcement-prison industrial complex.
How long will the NAHB last? It might be the National Association of Home Builder soon. And after that the National Home Grown Pot Growers Association fka the National Association of Home Builder. Think about it. They'll have plenty of empty homes to grow pot in. Maybe the can team up with GE to build the heating lamps using green energy.
@BR - while I'd never discount what people are capable of doing to each other, no, I don't seriously think nuclear would be used. There are far too many proxy countries that would be perfect to battle over instead that would be acceptable to all major players.
Oil stays over $70/bbl - mid-east happy - check
Dollar up - rest of G8 happy - check
Treasuries going in the right direction - check
Stock market up - Doh!
As I read that article on cutting funding for lawyers, I thought it was for the public defenders - the lawyers that are appointed to defend indigent criminal charges... no reason for govt funded legal aid for civil actions - that should be charity... some kind of non-profit...
Is it just me, or is it strange how people are scrambling to redefine valuations for the SP500, etc. The DOW is easy, just kick some out and get in new blood.
But since Standard and Poors started reporting reality, more people are attempting to come up with other ways to make things look good. PE10, from massivly inflated earnings throughout the bubble and massive leverage.
But since Standard and Poors started reporting reality, more people are attempting to come up with other ways to make things look good. PE10, from massivly inflated earnings throughout the bubble and massive leverage.
Yeah, even though I like the PE10 as a measure, after over a decade of bubbles even that no longer serves to properly normalize stock values.
Funny how we never heard about it when it said stocks were overpriced...
But what about the second derivative? Numbers mean nothing without the second derivative.
Told them not to climb out from under that rock...
Wait, what? I thought Cramer said we'd reached absolutely the bottom!?!
Glad I picked up some SDS.
If the NAHB had any sense at all, that survey would have posted another record low.
Before the pig showed up, I was gonna say that anybody who thinks NBER will call the bottom in June must think NBER is somebody's lackey.
I don't think they are. All NBER cares about is getting it right. So, if they call June as the bottom, it won't be any time soon but rather long after the fact. More likely they'll call the bottom sometime in 2010.
I'd advise anybody who is freaking out about PMs or commodities today not to dump.
I expect PMs and commodities to do pretty well going forward, after a little expected turbulence in the air here.
Yup, must rely on the third derivitive for green shoots.
Spoke to a realtor in the Triangle area of NC this weekend at a social event. She said that this spring was good for properties under $150K b/c of the $8K tax credit and low rates. Everything above $200K really wasn't moving. Worse, the low end stuff seems to have peaked in the last couple months.
rich, there might be a long delay this time from NBER - if the recession ends soon, I'd guess the NBER will announce it sometime in 2010. I think the data might be confusing for some time.
best wishes
I wonder if this was done late enough to capture the effect of the latest ramp in mortgage rates?
rich, there might be a long delay this time from NBER - if the recession ends soon, I'd guess the NBER will announce it sometime in 2010.
If it ends any later they will have to postpone releasing the results until after the 2012 election.
Scott
SDS has performing quite well all things considered...
Iceman
I think that the activity is peaking too. Lots of people emptied the bank account for a"once in a lifetime" deals at the low end.
Deadline day for state leaders to close deficit
Deadline day for state leaders to close deficit
If it ends any later they will have to postpone releasing the results until after the 2012 election
2018.
@ac - the recession will be over in time for the 2010 elections... and then for the 2012 elections... rinse and repeat.
if the recession ends soon
The recession will end when the depression begins.
The NBER is useless. Today's eCONomists either have social agendas or they work for wall street and are thus required to lie in order to sell financial products.
Excess leverage against declining/stagnant incomes against inflated asset values = depression.
No soup lines. Just a painful adjustment. Very painful.
Rich, without a doubt the NBER will not make a call for a long time, I would think the earliest would be in about December, and when they do it will be back dated. However, what is of interest is when they do make the call, when will they say it ended. The new claims data suggests it could be around now, but I dont see a lot of other confirmation of that in other data. At most we see a slowing in the rate of decline, not an increase. Watch the IP/CU numbers later this week. MFG Cap Utitilization (CU) also has a history of bottoming out right around when the NBER eventually makes the call as the end of a recession. Thus if we see a fairly singnificant increase in mfg CU it means when the NBER finally gets around to making its call late in the 4th quarter or sometime in 2010, they will say the recession ended in June. If CU continues to fall, then the end of the recession will be at a later date.
I think the short-term dollar move is about two things:
a) Baltics
b) Being bigtime oversold and a crowded short.
Broward I'll split the difference 2016.
Today's the deadline for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature to close a $24.3 billion deficit so the state controller can get emergency loans to help California avoid running out of cash next month.
What's the deadline for getting emergency tequila shots to the local alcoholics that are starting to sober up?
Or the realization that most emerging markets w/ maybe the exception of China is as bad or worse off than the US at least in the short term
Rich, without a doubt the NBER will not make a call for a long time, I would think the earliest would be in about December, and when they do it will be back dated.
I don't know. If it suits the needs of the new Animal Spirits Economic Recovery Commission it might be declared over sooner rather than later.
ac - yup. they could always go back and call a double dip a few months later, or not, if the confidence game works.
it's going to be all right. We ve got NORAD tracking REIT goose; AIG & GS coordinating anti default defence at Edwards AFB. MER is launching new UAVs daily to monitor CRE movements and maintain visible presence. Air Force one is jamming and blocking the cool north Atlantic sentiment. Helicopter Ben is conducting Cov Op. to eliminate drought and maintain liquidity.
we can all sleep tight today. yes we can. : (
shill- I think you missed the best part
"A real credible budget that (Wall Street) would believe in,"
If that is the standard CA should have absolutely no problem. After everything that has happened on Wall Street to use them as the measure of "credibility" is just amazing. If there is one cause for our economic mess it is that we have let Wall Street be the arbiter of what is or is not good policy. I had hoped that with the election of BHO that would have changed. Unfortunately that has happened if anything he has perpetuated the kow towing to Wall street.
For unemployment numbers, maybe NBER should use U6 peak as the indicator, not initial claims or U3 as a factor in determining the bottom.
Or the realization that most emerging markets w/ maybe the exception of China is as bad or worse off than the US at least in the short term
But for those without massive debt their long-term prospects might be much better.
If so then once these countries start showing signs of legitimate growth, they might start to suck all the capital out of a stagnant debt-sodden US.
That's when you may start to see laws against capital movements outside of the US as well as massive taxation of gains from foreign investments.
But what about the second derivative?
Yup, must rely on the third derivitive for green shoots.
My math is rusty, but if we keep going down this path, don't we get a constant?
My math is rusty, but if we keep going down this path, don't we get a constant?
Not if the function is exponential, or trigometric.
AC
True but debt is just one part of the equation. Government policy including education and demographics play a larger part IMO of whether or not a nation is successful... Success is all relative anyways.
That is precisely why I am so bearish on the US. Why would you want to invest in a country that is structurally broken when there are a myriad of opportunities elsewhere.
For example: Invest in Nordstrom in the US or a Chinese retail store chain?
My math is rusty, but if we keep going down this path, don't we get a constant?
If the green shoots function is polynomial I think so IIRC.
I watched the movie "Planet of the Apes" the other night. The last scene reminds me of our economy.
they blew it up
If all currencies are really in a race to the bottom, does it really matter who gets there last?
We really need that JPM stick save today.
My math is rusty, but if we keep going down this path, don't we get a constant?
That's where those "animal spirits" muck everything up.
Maybe JPM is taking profits today?
Money doesn’t grow on trees for most of America. We sit down at our kitchen tables and write out checks to the phone-company, electric company, credit card-company, mortgage-company, and auto finance company every month. We clip coupons and go to the grocery store every week to put food in the mouths of our children. This is what our parents did before us.
good articles> Econ & Finance Articles Updated Daily
TARP, it's still early.
How are those sp500 1000 calls look now PPT???
AC
True but debt is just one part of the equation. Government policy including education and demographics play a larger part IMO of whether or not a nation is successful... Success is all relative anyways.
Perhaps. But my personal experience at least is that people who are irresponsible with debt tend to be irresponsible with other aspects of their life.
I don't see a country that makes promises it can't keep on a daily basis doing other things well. Likewise I don't see that a government which encourages its citizens to make promises that they can't keep otherwise engaging in productive policy.
True, Rocky, but if I was pushing the buttons at JPM, I'd skip a day now and then just to screw with the sheeple.
"How are those sp500 1000 calls look now PPT???"
I bet they're looking damn good to anyone who wrote them.
my prediction regarding NBER calling the bottom:
By the time in 2010 that NBER would be ready to call a rear-view-mirror bottom in 2009, it will be apparent that 2009 was not the bottom.
My math is rusty, but if we keep going down this path, don't we get a constant?
That's where those "animal spirits" muck everything up.
The derivative of the animal spirits function at any point is another animal spirits function. Repeatedly taking the derivative of an animal spirits function between points m and n where n > m may yield an arbitrarily large number of different animal spirits functions.
It's been a long time since I've done teh calculas. Are there any actual mathematical constructs like that?
Rich,
I heeded your advice in Jan of this year, took the profits and banked them. What commodities are you looking at besides oil?
ps. jumped into utilities a month or so before you so we seem to be thinking along similar lines.
Moody's Downgrades 30 Spanish Banks Amid Capital Concerns
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com
Defeat of a Spanish Armada by the Spaniards?
I watched the movie "Planet of the Apes" the other night. The last scene reminds me of our economy.
they blew it up
I have a friend who walked onto the set of Planet of The Apes in Zuma Beach in the middle of the night high on acid---
It was a defining moment in his life.
TARP - agreed.
"It's been a long time since I've done teh calculas. Are there any actual mathematical constructs like that?"
I'm pretty sure that something with a couple of trig functions multiplied by an exponential term with, say a cube root and at least one term that requires the chain rule thrown in for good measure could give you what you're looking for.
Nemo (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 6/15/2009 - 10:04 am
But what about the second derivative? Numbers mean nothing without the second derivative.
2nd derivatives are so last quarter. Give me skew and kurtosis baby.
But for those without massive debt their long-term prospects might be much better.
But which developing markets aren't drowning in debt? Outside of China, who qualifies?
Sanity
N-O-N-E
I'm pretty sure that something with a couple of trig functions multiplied by an exponential term with, say a cube root and at least one term that requires the chain rule thrown in for good measure could give you what you're looking for.
BTW, taking the derivative of an animal spirits function at a point whose truncated absolute value corresponds to a prime number leads to an animal spirits function with a countably infinite number of animal spirits functions as its first derivative and an uncountably infinite number of animal spirits functions as its second derivative (the overall derivative of A(x) called A'(x) being the set of all those animal spirits functions evaluated at each point).
I have a friend who walked onto the set of Planet of The Apes in Zuma Beach in the middle of the night high on acid---
Funny, I saw a chicken being cooked when I was medicated the same way. I realized they were dead birds and hardly ever eat it now.
ac, crash - if you're trying to impress potential bank employers, this might be the wrong blog.
ac --
Dennis Kneale was just saying exactly the same thing on CNBC.
GM's deal erased many average Americans' savings
GM's deal erased many average Americans' savings - Washington Times
ac, crash - if you're trying to impress potential bank employers, this might be the wrong blog.
I'm trying to remember everything I learned about calculus but didn't really understand and put it all into one sentence that's too confusing for people to understand that I don't understand what I put in the sentence.
In general it works well for the economists and accountants. Why not me too?
Doesn't Cramer have a sign up on the wall calling the bottom in housing sometime this month?
If so, anyone know the date?
" I have a friend who walked onto the set of Planet of The Apes in Zuma Beach in the middle of the night high on acid---"
For some reason that is so damn funny to me. +1.
I think that june 30 was his call. that guy needs to be taken off the air. destroying too many Americans savings.
Shill once again lots of change not a lot of hope
ac --
Dennis Kneale was just saying exactly the same thing on CNBC.
About which subject. Does he have a laptop in front of him?
ac - because you haven't been blessed or sanctioned by TPTB?
Why not me too?
You forgot to throw in the psuedo-physics: maximum entropy!
I have a great movie idea; how i stopped worrying about the economy and learn to love a government bailout.
dn, i wish Stanley was here today.
I find this very hard to believe. You know when you are dodging taxes!
Lawmakers want IRS to suspend tax shelter penalty
The penalties cannot be appealed, National Taxpayer Advocate Nina Olsen said in her 2008 annual report. Olsen, an independent watchdog within the IRS, cited a case in which a small business owner saved $45,000 over three years from a tax shelter and was fined $900,000 by the IRS.
"The statute as written can impose unconscionable hardship on taxpayers," she wrote. "In practice, the requirement that this penalty be imposed without regard to culpability may have the effect of bankrupting middle class families who had no intention of entering into a tax shelter, an outcome that has dismayed even hardened IRS enforcement personnel."
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ac - because you haven't been blessed or sanctioned by TPTB?
You mean you have to have a Nobel prize to make stuff like that up?
Chaos - gov't funding for your project is denied due to the anti-establishment nature of your topic. TPTB.
ac - kissing the right a$$es is required. The Nobel Prize is optional.
looks like the PPT is back from lunch early today.
snicker.
I wonder what the going rate on a gov't bought treasury bond basis point is these days? $2B/each?
Damn you! Damn you all to hell!
(collapses to knees, pounds sand)
d/dx(e^x) = e^x The derivative of the exponential function with base e (2.71. . .) is another exponential function, e^x. So an exponentially decaying thing with this function decays at the same rate forever. Of course, economic activity can't get arbitrarily small, so at least we have that! Well, assuming no economic activity is not an option.
@ TARP
Why worry? There's plenty more where that came from.
Barry's Auto Emporium
YouTube - Barry's Auto Emporium
I'm pretty sure that "countably infinite" is one of the more unique oxymorons I've heard in quite a while.
"countably infinite"
====
I've always preferred "denumerably infinite" myself
I don't get it. S&P is down 2%, WTF is the government action. Don't they know that you ve got to be ether PROACTIVE or Free Market Oriented / Capitalist?
Must be the printer ink shortages, and it's only been what, 18 months? Didn't the Lenin specified the order of takeovers: Radio, Telephone (telegraph), Printing press and only later banks, heavy manufacturing, etc?
Amateurs!
Don't know if it's been posted yet here, but gov't buildings are burning in Iran right now. Good luck to Iran's citizens!
Demonstrator Killed by Gunfire at Iranian Election Protests | News | English
CR thinks this may be Corus' last week before FDIC takeover.
I'd just like to call attention to this article that was published yesterday:
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"In devising new regulations and oversight, the administration is looking to address four perceived weaknesses in the current system:
The lack of an all-seeing federal entity to detect institutional stresses that threaten the financial system, and the government's inability to step in and unwind large institutions before they choke the system. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. can do this with banks. But the government lacked the power to do the same with a behemoth such as the insurer American International Group Inc."
Don't buy this myth perpetuated by the MSM. Whether or not the FDIC can step in and unwind large institutions before they choke the system, THEY DON''T. Corus is the proof.
Corus should have been among the first banks the FDIC took over in this downturn.
The FDIC should have done it two years ago, when Corus kept on throwing huge construction loans at more and more high-rise condos clustered in bubble markets.
Not only didn't the FDIC step in. They've let Corus drag on as a beyond-zombie bank far, far too long, and even after the rats abandoned ship. And still, the FDIC has not said one word about monitoring loan concentrations or risks in insured banks, or regulations that would prohibit the kind of reckless risk-taking that Corus took, using money they got from depositors not because they are big or solid or reputable -- but only because they could offer FDIC insurance.
"Must be the printer ink shortages"
I saw a Kodak commercial during the NBA finals that identified inkjet ink as the most expensive liquid known to man. If Timmy has been using his inkjet for all of the printing, he might have just come to the conclusion that the unit cost per newly printed $100 bill is now greater than the face value of said bill.
Interesting article in the Sacbee
404 - Not Found - sacbee.com
Golden State losing folks as old Dust Bowl beckons
who was it that talked about a reverse dust bowl effect here a few years ago?
iceman, here in Chapel Hill, nothing is moving above 417k. Had a beer...well ok a couple of beers, with some builders here in Chapel Hill and they have finished most of what they had but nothing in the pipeline with one exception...cheap multiplex retirement stuff for boomers moving down from the north.
@Chaos - thanks - 3 Treasury bond basis points = 2% S&P.
I'm pretty sure that "countably infinite" is one of the more unique oxymorons I've heard in quite a while.
I think it's a real term though used in set theory.
So the set of natural numbers (1, 2, 3, 4...) are countably infinite while the set of real numbers are not (because you can always find another real number in between any two different real numbers no matter how close together they get).
ac...agree, agree and agree
The PPT appears to be fighting a spirited rear guard action at the 6/1 gap open. They're holding their ground so far. The 3PM reinforcements should be a big help.
Pictures from Iran's elections
Who says you can't learn anything new on this blog now that we've gone from predicting the apocalypse to munching on popcorn while it proceeds?
rich,
100% agree...there are dozens, if not hundreds of banks that are insolvent by any measure and yet the FDIC took down zero banks last week? It's a travesty...
rich - what do you think of Simon Johnson's take on your article link?
Today’s Foundation, Tomorrow’s Crisis: The Geithner-Summers Proposals « The Baseline Scenario
Moody's Downgrades 30 Spanish Banks Amid Capital Concerns
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com
Defeat of a Spanish Armada by the Spaniards?
yes but only moderate downgrades....lol...talk about shining a turd.
"Countably infinite" is, indeed a term used in mathematics, but uncountability is different than what you describe, and proving that the real numbers are uncountable is typically done with the cantor diagonal argument.
Proud To Be American? You Should Be Ashamed
Proud To Be American? You Should Be Ashamed - The Market Ticker
@Panda - the FDIC is rationing failures. It wouldn't do to run out of cash before the end of summer. They just needed to make a few bucks before taking out Corus (or is that 'taking Corus out'?)
"Before they join the Corus Invisible..."
....nothing being built here except the prison. Most of the residents don't want it, we have an empty prison an hour from here, and apparently we need another one. Life is grand with an unlimited checkbook.
More cutting in Cali!
California wants to cut lawyers for the poor, other cash-strapped states may do the same
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Is this the lowest that index has ever been in June?
guessing game for an institutional inv advisor:
Deflation - treasury bonds
Inflation - tips
Unknown due to Fed Cov Op ?!? - Bailout Bonds !!! (more fun to come), yeah Benny keep them on their toes..
I understand that the FDIC has to ramp up and get people trained; but they've got a $500 billion line to work with. Use these small town banks as on the job training.
@notafriend - all part of the master plan. Due process? We don't need no stinking due process!
who was it that talked about a reverse dust bowl effect here a few years ago?
I've been talking about a "Reverse Okie" effect for a couple of years now.
(shakes his head) Panda - that $500B is 'just in case'. The FDIC won't actually need to use a bazooka like that against the failed banks...
Reply to crazyv: shill- I think you missed the best part -- "A real credible budget that (Wall Street) would believe in,"
Yes, I was ROFLMAO when I read that particular sentence.
"I had hoped that with the election of BHO that would have changed. Unfortunately that has happened if anything he has perpetuated the kow towing to Wall street."
Crazyv: sadly I didn't actually have that hope, but on the (bright?) side, he has rather quickly turned out to be worse than I thought. (The 'bright' bit being that for about 6 weeks after election day, I thought that he might not be as bad as I feared. So I had six weeks of hope...)
Loving 'green chutes,' by the way. Think we oughta spread that meme, rather than the faux 'nearing bottom' meme. I want a t-shirt... hmmm, might make one... hey I know... I'll swipe the traveller's logo, color it green & then show a person jumping off cliff with holding onto the green 'chute...
Who says you can't learn anything new on this blog now that we've gone from predicting the apocalypse to munching on popcorn while it proceeds?
New!?! I'm re-learning things I used to know. I think,...let me check my transcript,... Oh,.... Well, I'm learning things my eyes passed over.
From the above post "Calif wants to cut legal aid attorneys for poor"
Adachi said his office would be devastated and would have to fire 15 to 20 attorneys, about 20 percent of his staff.
Then, he said, "The whole system would begin to fail."
REBear - Adachi misses the point - no lawyers for the poor means faster case processing. The system should speed up significantly, along with judgements in favor of the not-poor.
"California wants to cut lawyers for the poor, other cash-strapped states may do the same "
Call it an economic stimulus; the less ethical end of the marketplace can now prey on the poor at even lower cost, and less risk.
@Bob Dobbs - and that's definitely a green shoot, right?
Shouldn't builder confidence be going up with all these green shoots ?
I guess all these builders haven't been following the party line of Timmah, Git-nerd, or Krugman, ie. Close eyes, cross fingers and say to yourself "I know it's getting better.. I know it's getting better.. " over and over until everything is rosy !
Either that or they didn't get in on any sweet infrastructure stimulus projects
What ever happened to Pro Bono work?
Oh, right - Lawyers figured out how to get the state to pay them for it...
splat - there's your problem: Builders needed to get those guys saying 'There's no place like home' over and over instead.
"The whole system would begin to fail."
So he thinks a completely bankrupt state would work better for him how exactly ?
CA pisses away $ on all manner of non-essentials. In the mail over the weekend I get a letter from one of the state agencies telling me how I can get a free booklet from the state department of BS about some state run BS scheme or other.. Seriously that's just one example of where all the $ in this state is going to.
sigh if it wasn't for the weather and lifestyle....
Just saw this over on Yahoo Finance:
VIX Climbs Past a Key Level...
Interesting little paragraph halfway through:
One trader on Thursday bought 20,000 July VIX calls at the 45 strike and sold 55 strike calls for an overall premium of 42.5 cents in a trade that cost about $850,000 to execute. The net impact is that the VIX would have to beat the 45.42 level by the July expiration for the investor to make money. The VIX hasn't been past 40 since April 21.
Talk about big balls.
Excellent ! +100
10 minutes until timmay mashes buy button
Cinncinnati has a pension shortfall of close to 1B itself...
By Jeremy R. Cooke
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Credit ratings on Ohio’s $9.6 billion of debt were cut by Moody’s Investors Service as the state’s manufacturing-based economy shrinks more than the nation’s.
Moody’s reduced its assessment of Ohio’s $6.8 billion of general obligation bonds to Aa2, the third-highest grade, from Aa1, the New York-based rating company said in a news release today. Ohio debt with payments subject to appropriation was cut to Aa3, the fourth highest, from Aa2
I worked for a while for a non-profit legal agency. Not the best help, but not the worse. Some were really passioante about and burned out in less than 2 years. Really good attorneys were hard to find because of law school debt.
Re: legal aid...
No state needs to pay for legal aid work right now. With all the unemployed lawyers out there, there are privately-funded legal aid foundations that are actually turning away lawyers*. My wife's firm, which used to "require" 40 hours of pro-bono work per lawyer per year, recently said NO MORE to avoid competing with the out-of-work lawyers. Right now is perhaps the best time ever to be broke and in need of redress.
Is everyone busy clapping for Tinkerbell Timmy? No comments in over 10 minutes?
National builders have no confidence. They only have pending criminal charges. And those are increasing monthly.
@crash - busy placing our bets on whether the PPT will push stocks, or keep the pressure on the dollar and treasuries instead. (or some combination of both)
"I worked for a while for a non-profit legal agency. Not the best help, but not the worse. Some were really passioante about and burned out in less than 2 years. Really good attorneys were hard to find because of law school debt."
What? With all that pro bono help out there just itching to be helpful?
But, but they don't make anymore land!
http://www.britain.tv/images/palm_island_dubai.jpg
"Really good attorneys were hard to find because of law school debt."
And because of the lack of good attorneys in general.
What does the degree jd stand for?
Just Dumb.
I don't think bears or bulls can have a lot of confidence right now.
So after that massive and historic rally, maybe the sidelines are again the best place to be as the dust settles.
With popcorn. Lots of popcorn.
Jiffy Pop.
Extra butter.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_wFWqWIH-WFU/SibADlBp0OI/AAAAAAAAJ6E/PI6rhqB8ohY/s1600-h/megabear1-0.85x0.85.jpg
Elvis - it's bashing bankers year. Try to keep up.
Banker bashing was last year. Lawyer bashing is on going.
Here is your next bubble????
Momentum builds for broad debate on legalizing pot
NEW YORK (AP) -- The savage drug war in Mexico. Crumbling state budgets. Weariness with current drug policy. The election of a president who said, "Yes -- I inhaled."
These developments and others are kindling unprecedented optimism among the many Americans who want to see marijuana legalized.
Doing so, they contend to an ever-more-receptive audience, could weaken the Mexican cartels now profiting from U.S. pot sales, save billions in law enforcement costs, and generate billions more in tax revenue from one of the nation's biggest cash crops.
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"I'm going to law school."
"Why?"
"Because I'm really good at talking."
"But are you really good at thinking?"
"I'm going to law school, aren't I?"
"I rest my case."
This will be very interesting if Kermit shows up.
"This will be very interesting if Kermit shows up."
Why? That would be close to the norm as of late.
That would be close to the norm as of late.
Define norm? nothing in this market is normal.
Countdown(up?) has started.... -221 --> -210 --> -200 --> -190.....
Wait for it...wait for it....
Normal is defined today as the absence of normal.
They are pretty powerless to stop people from smoking pot right now (a good argument for legalization I suppose), so how on earth do they think they will collect taxes on it if it were legal?
3:59 pm EST - Notice from the PPT - Suckers!
how on earth do they think they will collect taxes on it if it were legal?
=======
once it's legal the big corporations get involved -> then the sales taxes are easy to collect
"3:59 pm EST - Notice from the PPT - Suckers!"
hehehe...
c'mon bears
havent closed below the 20 EMA in quite a while............
Just in the event they do legalize pot, remember pep owns frito-lay.
Can I haz some weed?
One less day til Calisplosion day July 28, 2009.
My closing closed--an fha, natch.
There IS no normal.
No more legs on the mystery bonds?
dum luk - legal pot will be more expensive, so you might want to find out who makes the generic brand munchies.
From the last thread (was out tending to chores)
Treasury-Altered Reality Plan (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/15/2009 - 12:42 pm
@BR - especially when the dog has nuclear teeth
Not really relevant. What are we going to do, threaten to nuke China and Russia if they don't lend us more money. That'd work real long, not.
Nukes ultimately made America into a nation of suckers who believe you can get anything you want by pointing a revolver at someone's face. Great in the economic short run, worst thing that ever happened to us over the multigenerational timespan.
Many people would rather pay taxes then stealing their kids stash ;)
Treasury says loans held by 21 largest banks getting bailout support fell again in April
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Treasury Department says the value of loans held by the 21 largest institutions getting federal bailout support fell in April, the fifth decline in six months.
The department's monthly report of lending activity says that average loan balances at the 21 institutions totaled $4.34 trillion in April, down 0.8 percent from March.
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And there goes Timmy.
If they legalize pot, Mexico will be in even worse shape. The drug gangs will just turn into violent thieves all the time. Except when they are raping.
dont get sore...sell some more!
We got a little lift there for a second. Anybody with access to a Bloomberg terminal? Is JPM cranking up its machine?
Legalized pot might put the tobacco companies back in business. They could create designer brands with different flavors and effects. There are as many varieties of weed as there are of coffee. North Carolina would boom. Of course, alcohol companies will fight it along with the law enforcement-prison industrial complex.
How long will the NAHB last? It might be the National Association of Home Builder soon. And after that the National Home Grown Pot Growers Association fka the National Association of Home Builder. Think about it. They'll have plenty of empty homes to grow pot in. Maybe the can team up with GE to build the heating lamps using green energy.
@BR - while I'd never discount what people are capable of doing to each other, no, I don't seriously think nuclear would be used. There are far too many proxy countries that would be perfect to battle over instead that would be acceptable to all major players.
Oil stays over $70/bbl - mid-east happy - check
Dollar up - rest of G8 happy - check
Treasuries going in the right direction - check
Stock market up - Doh!
3 out of 4 is good, right? Green shoots
As I read that article on cutting funding for lawyers, I thought it was for the public defenders - the lawyers that are appointed to defend indigent criminal charges... no reason for govt funded legal aid for civil actions - that should be charity... some kind of non-profit...
From the "Proud To Be American? You Should Be Ashamed"
"The Iranians take to the streets; we take to our couches and have another beer."
That sounds good, now where were those chips.
We outsource our riots too...
You're all waiting for that last minute stock market shoot up, but secretly hoping for a 100 point drop from here...
Hey Kahuna,
We're talking about pakalolo here.
G
"You're all waiting for that last minute stock market shoot up, but secretly hoping for a 100 point drop from here..."
That's true. I hate summer re-runs.
We've been waiting for a 300 point drop (sp500) or more - since March! There will be plenty of stock buyers at 600....
Somebody gets it:
The Bear Market Never Ended - Yahoo! Finance
Shadow, I'd like to know where the action really is while we're watching the pretty commodities charts...
Is it just me, or is it strange how people are scrambling to redefine valuations for the SP500, etc. The DOW is easy, just kick some out and get in new blood.
But since Standard and Poors started reporting reality, more people are attempting to come up with other ways to make things look good. PE10, from massivly inflated earnings throughout the bubble and massive leverage.
Stock Market S&P 500 Valuation With Normalized Earnings :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website
But since Standard and Poors started reporting reality, more people are attempting to come up with other ways to make things look good. PE10, from massivly inflated earnings throughout the bubble and massive leverage.
Yeah, even though I like the PE10 as a measure, after over a decade of bubbles even that no longer serves to properly normalize stock values.
Funny how we never heard about it when it said stocks were overpriced...
Funny how we never heard about it when it said stocks were overpriced...
Hussman pointed it out, but always with the caveat to be aware of it, but don't bank on it.