It sure looks like in spite of all the govt spending, we are in for a long haul on recovery here... at least another 2 years to the bottom... What a waste...
"It sure looks like in spite of all the govt spending, we are in for a long haul on recovery here... at least another 2 years to the bottom... What a waste..."
~~~
What recovery? Just because we stop going down does not mean we go up ...
yogi: would you consider this tax cheating or evasion?
Let's say a novelist decides to sell the copyrights to his works to a shell company that he's established in the Netherlands (copyright haven du jour). The Dutch company then licenses the rights to the American publisher for $1M. The American publisher takes a $1M deduction, and the shell company makes $1M that the US can't touch.
i missed it, what is the equal protection argument against a moratorium?
Wow, $500/sq ft office building. Must have gold thrones in the toilets. (I've always wanted to crap in a gold one, but I don't think I want the seat to be gold too.
i missed it, what is the equal protection argument against a moratorium?
Well if both parties the bank(lender) and the borrower are not represented( unable to contact them) it doesn't seem like they could make changes to a legal contract.
Can't states issue a moratorium under emergency powers.?
Distinction w/o much difference. I can remember when "shell" clearly implied a scam. A shell game is 3-card monty before paper. I'm going to cop a moot, because publishing profits are disappearing either way.
Cali makes an emergency rule benefiting owners, presumably so they won't be homeless, but lets owners evict tenants? Apply the smell test...
Article on Bair and Dugan's feud in the Sunday Times:
Yea, I think she is too honest to be where she is, but I hope she is tough enough to win. At least when she speaks it is clear the taxpayer is getting the shaft and deal with it.
Cali makes an emergency rule benefiting owners, presumably so they won't be homeless, but lets owners evict tenants? Apply the smell test...
There's no protected class, so that the unequal application only has to pass rational basis review. The state would just frame the argument not as a homeless issue, but rather an adjudication of property.
I found it humorous that U2 has stashed its copyrights in a Dutch tax shelter for several years.
I believe that the novelist will have a taxable event upon the sale to the shell company. The asset will be valued in excess of the the $ 1MM -received for the license rights on which the novelist will have to pay taxes whether he gets a dime from the shell company or not.
mmckinl -
I am holding out for an outside chance the destructive creativity will make a better world. And please don't laugh, at least I did not use the code word of hope.
Everybody here seems to think Cali is in a horrible mess, so it must be true.
What I'm thinking is that the Cali mess is of a different quality than anything the Fed, or Treasury, or PPT or Obamacons have ever faced before.
I don't get the sense that they are getting out front of the Calif mess with proactive bailout solutions.
And at the same time, Europe is talking about getting out of the bailout game and starting to put tightening measures in place.
I'm thinking that Cali is Obama's Rubicon, and he has no clue how to cross it. It's not within his braintrust or conventional wisdom, and he's not great thinking outside the box.
I'm not saying it's all gonna come to a head in 45 days. They'll find ways to buy time and bullsh*t.
I'm saying they aren't gonna offer any big solutions for CA, at the expense of taxpayers in other states. And they aren't going to make CA's problem the federal govt's problem.
So, that creates a pretty narrow realm of solutions going forward, no?
Not good for either the stock or bond markets, no?
"I am holding out for an outside chance the destructive creativity will make a better world. And please don't laugh, at least I did not use the code word of hope."
~~~~
I'm not ... just look at where the money is going ... to the banksters ...
I'm saying they aren't gonna offer any big solutions for CA, at the expense of taxpayers in other states. And they aren't going to make CA's problem the federal govt's problem.
I'd be more incline to bet on the solution not being the federal gov't problem and at the expense of the other taxpayers,...if they could recognize these things. How many times have you seen a solution that the politicians said wasn't at the taxpayers expense and not the federal government intervening and yet somehow the taxpayers ended up paying and ended up with a new federal program?. I expect to hear an explosion of protest at whatever happens.
Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher has the 11th Floor, but the kicker is
The stunning exterior design is complemented by high-quality stone, milled wood paneling and aluminum etched glass features in the lobby. Garden settings at the base of the building provide exquisite open spaces. 3161 Michelson Drive will become an emerging centerpiece of South Orange County.
Yes, but I'm trying to have a good day, I soaked up all the doom and gloom working 12 hour shifts that went from mad house to dead every 30 minutes or so.
But if there is a boom, along with the doom here I just might be able to afford a single family home here in a few years. Kicking up my savings and I just might be able to do it for cash if the boom is big enough.
I found my green shoot.
Speaking of Cali, and not hearing much of the day to day news, is Cali still going to run out of $$? Is that tidal wave still going to hit land? I've been hearing warnings for what seems like a really long time. IOUs, cutting govt. workers, the $10K new home tax credits running out... But after you hear a headline, it just kind of fizzles away into silence. A major happening in Cal. will affect the rest of us 49ers, so I'm trying to keep my ears open.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 6:11 pm
At $300/sf the debt load alone against rentable space is $2/sf per month. Clearly the buyer is banking on appreciation.
On inflation or hyperinflation?
Only if they got unusual terms. A typical 3-5 CRE balloon loan doesn't outrun inflation.
States are facing a great fiscal crisis. At least 47 states faced or are facing shortfalls in their budgets for this and/or the next year or two. Combined budget gaps for the remainder of this fiscal year and state fiscal years 2010 and 2011 are estimated to total more than $350 billion. This figure, however, does not account for recent state actions to close their 2009 budget gaps or their projected gaps for 2010 or 2011, or for the $140 billion in fiscal relief that Congress provided for states in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
States are currently at the mid-point of fiscal year 2009 — which started July 1 in most states — and are in the process of preparing their budgets for the next year. Over half the states had already cut spending, used reserves, or raised revenues in order to adopt a balanced budget for the current fiscal year — which started July 1 in most states. Now, their budgets have fallen out of balance again. New gaps of $59 billion (some 9 percent of state budgets) have opened up in the budgets of at least 42 states plus the District of Columbia. These budget gaps are in addition to the $48 billion shortfalls that these and other states faced as they adopted their budgets for the current fiscal year, bringing total gaps for the year to 16 percent of budgets.
Arnie claims to have gotten the message from Cali taxpayers and is finally staring down the Dems and their union-enablers -- no new taxes, no new borrowing, no short term extensions. Let's see if he sticks to that. The countdown is definitely on.
Meanwhile, rumors are that the Dem / union relationships are getting strained, as the unions want higher taxes and no cuts, period. Heck, the unions themselves are trying to float initiatives for higher taxes on just about everything. I hope they do, because they'll get slapped down again even harder and would engender an even greater backlash.
[snark] California is Giethner's Lehman Brothers. He'll let it collapse and then call in the other governors. He'll give the UP to Wisconsin and the rest of Michigan to Illinois. Just like Paulson did with Merrill.
The Obama/California connection is complicated by the fact that LA county went very heavy for Hillary, and the mayors of SF and LA both campaigned hard for her...
This is just Cincinnati. I bet every state in the union has a story like this...
Source: Cincinnati's pension shortfall grows to $914M - Business Courier of Cincinnati:
Unfunded liabilities in the Cincinnati Retirement System more than doubled to $914 million in the last year and will reach $1.8 billion in five years if the city council fails to increase contributions to the plan or reduce health benefits for some 4,400 retirees.
TJ, before you and others cast Arnie as some kind of fiscal conservative, remember that he first came to state politics by supporting a school bond proposition which has the exact kind of nature as the programs being cut.
He's a social liberal and substantial landlord (like the family he married into) with absolutely no clue how to run a non-boom economy.
$500 per square foot is only profitable if you can get a lot of leverage AND if your bet is right.
That leverage must have been murder with a 40% off sale.
Arnie claims to have gotten the message from Cali taxpayers and is finally staring down the Dems and their union-enablers -- no new taxes, no new borrowing, no short term extensions. Let's see if he sticks to that. The countdown is definitely on.
Isn't it too late to look for union concessions? Aren't the current retirees already pulling the state into the red? No matter what they decide from here on out, I thought the current load was too much for Cal. to bear.
I'm sure Cali. is in dire straits, but sometimes it seems as if Hollywood isn't the only drama center out there.
CA 3/1/2018 25 CALIFORNIA ST PUB WKS BRD A3 A NATL-RE FGIC 5.000 5.350 97.58 3/1/2017 100.00 130685AN0
That's insured, double rated, double tax free debt and it still demands 5.350%! 45 days my ass. Mr. Market will shut down even routine transaction long before that. Calvinfornia is clearly getting ready to change the rules on its outstanding debt obligations. The sad part is not only won't it work but if it did work it wouldn't solve the problems.
Obama has made public statements that the Fed. Govt. will not bail out CA.... hehehe.... Rock and a hard place... Meanwhile, oh the humanity, all those able bodied adults who decided to be dependent on taxpayer handouts are going to be eating air pudding with wind sauce, maybe a little hot water with canola oil from the Salvation Army... Experience is the best teacher...
Example of how welfare for the poor isn't just for the poor.
Providing Cellphones for the Poor In a twist, wireless carriers are receiving subsidies to provide people like Mr. Cobb with a phone and typically 68 minutes of talk time each month. It is a form of wireless welfare that putsa societal stamp on the central role played by the mobile device....
“The low hanging fruit is gone, and the wireless companies are going after the nooks and crannies,” said Roger Entner, a wireless industry analyst with Nielsen. “Oh, the poor: How can we sign them up?”
Carriers can receive up to $10 a month in government subsidies, sufficient to cover what amounts to about $3 in service, Mr. Entner said.
Basel Too -
I'm to cheap to have a cell phone, I also hate them.
I'm just wondering if instead of a chicken in every pot, it wi-fi for the homeless.
--background swearing and muttering.
Obama is a Chicago machine politician. He counted the California vote three different ways. Sure there's the Hillary bit but that's just the first vote he counts. Second is $. California filled his campaign and he knows it. In fact without it again he knows he's in trouble. Third way of counting the votes in California is the prospect of a massive party shift. I know some people think that's impossible but if there is pain even those places gerrymandered at the census block level are going to elect intranigent democrats in name only.
"[snark] California is Giethner's Lehman Brothers. He'll let it collapse and then call in the other governors. He'll give the UP to Wisconsin and the rest of Michigan to Illinois. Just like Paulson did with Merrill."
Third way of counting the votes in California is the prospect of a massive party shift. I know some people think that's impossible but
Rob I know better than to argue with you. But the day California becomes a red state while NH is a blue state is the day the world is indeed plumb crazy. Never happen.
Irvine is the most interesting part of OC, and is what defines the direction of everything behind the Orange Curtain. In the post industrial cuber punk reality that is emerging, Gibson would be at home , as the dregs and talent of what is left of society fight to survive.
The rest of OC is surf fashion and greedy development, with the shallow end of the pool being where the game is played.
Cheap broadband is a public good. I want the poor informed about swine flu and the latest political movements. Who will be on the front lines, with the pitchforks, fat slob Limbaugh?
1 currency now -
Yes, but all they do is hang out on twitter, IM friends and watch youtube videos of people kicking each other in the balls.
Well, at least they will be prepared for the pain.
Outsider, read my words again. The new delegation will still be democrat but they won't be reliably party line democrat and they won't be the emasculated rabble they are now.
Well, slightly o.t.
oil is looking like a surplus will be noticed this week, since, once again, Israel didn't bomb Iran, and oceans of crude are afloat awaiting a summer (non)driving season in America.
Nothing like seeing $2.85-2.95 a gallon for premium , up 90 cents in 9 weeks.
I guess once again oil traders are going to shear some hedge funds.
Why people who only know advanced calculus think they know more than traders who have lived and died by the bottom line in the pit for decades eludes me, and the fact that idiots gave them massive amounts of money to play with only reinforces the insanity that is wall street.
I don't know which sign I like better. The New Century on top of the building or the Fatburger down the street.
Sportsfan-- If you only knew, as this would make kafka blush.
Why should anybody be surprised by the wreckage being exposed by the receding tide is beyond me, and what I am amazed by is how little has surfaced- there is much more to come!!
I hope so, but the insanity can last a very long time, but I don't see high gas prices helping the muddle through that I'm hoping for. I paid 2.98 this morning, and I'm sure it will hit 3 within the week here.
Like the two Moscow office workers who started the day with two cream puffs each and water tumblers filled with vodka? Is joy the same thing as anesthesia?
Even a total idiot like myself laughed reading this....
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose for a third day after Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said his nation has full confidence in the dollar and there are no immediate plans to switch to a new reserve currency.
yogi: to have a due process claim, there has to be a deprivation of property without notice. What is the (1) deprivation and (2) the property interest?
Kauai, TJ, Horne, et al;
Just because I justifiably bust on US dystopic urbania don't mistake that for a blanket dislike of urban areas. I am good at skewering the bad precisely because I don't turn a blind eye to the good. There are some interesting things I'm noticing. Montreal for one thing doesn't do "urban renewal" to their credit. The discrete buildings are from many eras and of varying quality and function. The University has a huge modern building complex but kept the facade of the old church as their gateway architecture for instance.
TJ - Asia thinks so, equities are tanking, right now and there's a surge of appreciation against USD amongst my usual currency reference quad. Mrs Watanabe is getting her uridashi bond recipe out too.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 7:12 pm
a blanket dislike of urban areas.
Don't worry, Dawg.
I'll offer your asylum in Idaho if it becomes necessary.
Us socialists have to stick together.
Right neighborly uv ya. I shure hope you don't mind the smell of my reducing my hops crop down to concentrate with the waste heat from the sour mash distillation process (during the potato vodka off-season of course).
Seriously tho, a couple winters in Idaho and I'd be ready for an asylum. I grew up (feh!) in New England, dropped off my thesis and rode my motorcycle until I hit the boardwalk in Santa Monica. When I want winter I visit it at my mountain cabin.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 9:43 pm reply Ignore user Outsider, read my words again. The new delegation will still be democrat but they won't be reliably party line democrat and they won't be the emasculated rabble they are now.
Oh. so you're saying it'll still be a blue state, just varying shades of blue? We'll now have to differentiate between light blue, pale blue, midnight blue, royal blue, etc. Life is getting very complicated.
Yes, I remember when I was in Thousand Oaks, thinking the same thing.
Boise is not New England.
I like Seattle and Portland better, heck, probably Denver, too.
But L.A.?
Sorry, I grew up there, perhaps it's different if you dreamed about it for decades.
It has no appeal for me.
No bets on this market Kauai K. SAXCME Asia 50 has managed to ditch 1.5% already this morning, probably just Monday grumps. (Actually, anyone recall anything significant on May 13? SAX spiked to 20b in volume that day in a selloff.) The broad index is mostly dragged down by Taiwan and Korea. Looks like Nikki's going to test 10k to start the week.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 7:27 pm
a couple winters in Idaho -RD
Yes, I remember when I was in Thousand Oaks, thinking the same thing.
Boise is not New England.
I like Seattle and Portland better, heck, probably Denver, too.
But L.A.?
Sorry, I grew up there, perhaps it's different if you dreamed about it for decades.
It has no appeal for me.
Oh, no. LA sucks. As in great big sucking sound as it circles the drain. LA is the antipode of Montreal in many ways. Perhaps you didn't realize, I live on the back side of the hill in Camarillo. While only 45 miles west of LA it is a world away. Moreso even today than probably the T.O. you may recall from years past.
perhaps you didn't realize, I live on the back side of the hill in Camarillo
No, i knew.
I graduated from Royal High, we played tournaments in Camarillo.
I know the area, I lived in Simi, TO, Northridge, SLO, Palmdale, Woodland Hills and did field service calls all over Socal.
Luckily, none of these CA budget & immigration issues will affect you.
"What ended up killing us was the foreclosure crisis because that's what killed Wall Street," said Rick Hoffman, a regional senior vice president in the Hamptons for the Corcoran Group, a high-end brokerage. "It bit us in the end."
The "Six Flags" in Agawam used to be called Riverside Park. It was one of their aggressive expansion takeovers that sank them with debt. Western Mass, indeed much of the area surrounding Agawam is experiencing a Japan/Western Europe demographic implosion. There's nothing left to keep the productive classes so there's no loyalty to buy.
America is in the process of having its biggest banks, which under laws written in the 1930's would either have been bankrupt, or even never have been able in the first place to become so addicted to such highly leveraged wagers -executed with depositors' money- that these could bankrupt them, dictate the terms of the reform of ... banks. It's complete and utter insanity. There is zero chance that the banks - represented in Washington by Rubin, Summers, Geithner and a thousand other revolving door faces - will regulate themselves to the point where their potential of making the highest possible profits will be curtailed or eliminated
We can spend much time wondering in bewilderment why the last tree was cut down on Easter Island. We can also, however, look at ourselves and recognize that we do indeed know the answer to that question.
indeed much of the area surrounding Agawam is experiencing a Japan/Western Europe demographic implosion.
Pretty much all schools from hours away flock to Agawam for Six Flags. Plus summer camps, vacationers, etc. You'd think that would help alleviate their population gaps.
So is there any rules of thumb for dummies on calculating $/sft for living and land outside of lower is better and general averages for the area that have been blown up beyond recognition?
I was worried about the weather here but it's surprisingly good. What sucks are jobs and inbred attitude (30% ex-CA, 30% Mormon, 40% other). Small-time corruption. Not much crime or traffic ( locals complain but they don't know what "traffic" is ). Boring compared to Seattle or Portland. Lots of young women looking for marriage (yeck).
I limit my job search mostly to cities I know and liked - Seattle, Portland, Denver.
Not much desire to return to Vegas, Phoenix, LA or SF or anything east of Denver.
I lived in LA too long, I like the greenery of the coastal cities.
"And if this is a mommy or nanny state situtation, all that I can say is the last 7 years
have proven to my satisfaction that a mommy or nanny is needed."
We had a mommy/nanny for the last 7 (and 70) years--but she was a Mommie Dearest meth-head who abused and robbed us.
Broward,
Coastal Calvinfornia is unmatched for the top 5 percenters. I don't even know how the bottom 50% manage. Or why they even try.
But enough.
Red eye LAX-BOS, 300 mi driving, through 4 States. Time to hit the sack. Lots of museums tomorrow. One takeaway thought; Montreal gets away with more French only than Los Angeles could get away with English only.
Nite all from socialist Nationalist Quebec. [I'll read a few responses before turning in.]
That's not the first time that has been predicted here. I keep hoping the oil plummeters are right.
I did not predict it, but I did sell all my energy stocks a few weeks ago, hey I don't mind being a little early, it's better than being a little late.
Just where it should be to keep the middle east barely in business.
The biggest problem is once again, everyone wants 2005 through 2007 to return. It is dead and gone.
Act accordingly. Further, we still have massive damage working its way through the system.
The same argument applies to dropping the dollar, it is the only thing preventing autarky in the international trade system, so those who live by trade desperately need it to survive for a while longer, or to identify the next numeraire and jump aboard.
Right now Pax Americana still reigns, but the days are numbered before we begin to concentrate on our internal problems and ignore the rest of the world.
That is truly when the odure hits the rotating fixture.
The deprived interest is the foreclosure right in the property, for three months. Time is money, and there is probably no recourse. Delayed is denied...
If 3 months expires, and it is renewed, nothing has changed. After some number of 3 month periods, it must violate due process, the question is whether one is that number.
Highlights for the week include:
" Housing starts are seen rising to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 490,000 units in May from April's pace of 458,000 units, while building permits are expected to rise at a pace of 500,000 units, compared with 498,000 in April.
"That's going to be an important number because we want to see a stabilization in the housing area and an improvement there, so anything that has to do with existing or new starts is critical," Mendelsohn said." This man should be fired!!!
Um, how about a drop in foreclosures and a positive unemployment report -like under 400k?
Seriously folks, as long as this type of stupidity continues, we are not near a real recovery.
Builders have to build, and I bet you can get a lot more for your money now on a new house than 2 years ago... Not to mention that some people dont want a fixer or even a used house... Not that a new house is better by any means - and then there is that location thing...
If the builders would build houses that make sense, they could probably sell a few at the right price.
I think it's going to get harder and harder to build anything saleable as cities and counties get more desperate for money. Who would buy a condo with HOA and Mello-Roos loads on top of regular property taxes at this point? Also, Mello-Roos CFDs are funded by selling bonds, which may get a bit tricky soon. Not to mention the new planning fees and other Cr4p that local government will attempt to lard on...
" Besides data on construction of new housing, which has been among the weakest parts of the economy, investors will scrutinize readings on inflation at the wholesale and consumer level, when the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index for May are released this week. Wall Street also will note the numbers on industrial production and capacity utilization as well as weekly initial jobless claims.
With oil prices back above $70 a barrel, inflation worries could hinder the Federal Reserve's efforts to end the recession, pushing up interest rates and delaying any recovery.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak on Wednesday at a global financial literacy summit in Washington."
From the same article.
Gee, high oil and gasoline prices are inflationary. That will be solved.
One of our family members has tried to work for affordable housing but has given up - he says the political powers in his CA town only want high end housing which will generate revenue without a lot of problems - low end housing takes up a lot of services...
1960s - Aviation electronics in the Navy, 1970's Minicomputer system software, 1980's owned a full service car wash, 1990's owned an auto body shop and tow yard, Late 90s - Network and IT engineer for a national company for about 5 years... Then my wife and I took care of her parents for 7 years - her dad just passed away this week....
There goes the bucky !!!
BRIC seeks global voice at first summit BRIC seeks global voice at first summit
| Reuters
Leaders of the so-called BRIC nations will discuss ways to reshape the global financial system after the worst economic crisis for decades and ideas for a new reserve currency to reduce dependency on the U.S. dollar may be on the agenda
Ya I would get bored and look for a new challenge... I grew up on a farm so I learned a lot of skills there, and when I was in public school it was still worth something too...
Actually I think a background in law is really valuable if you go into any business... The only thing today is that nothing looks really enticing... everything is retrenching... Even my plumber buddy is having problems with his biz... I suppose there is probably some way to suck up some of that federal money that is being tossed out the window, but that doesnt appeal to me...
My one world currency advocacy has to stay strictly not-for-profit to maintain credibility, but I'm always looking for a chance to open a squash club, among other small businesses.
...any rules of thumb for dummies on calculating $/sft for living and land
Seems to me in a price collapse the only rule left is recent sales $psf, which has led PS to the downside by a lot over 2 years. I ask listings and 30 day sales for selected Redfin zip codes, and typically get back a grim lower end picture with listings at $300 psf, 6-12 month sales around $200 psf, and recent sales below $100 psf. The old metrics are dead and prices are like news, getting old real fast. And the realtors I ask, who see this disparity every day, deny it is happening. Here's Encinitas asking $440 psf, 6-12 month sales at $320 psf, and a recent sale at $168 psf: 817 Clark, Encinitas, CA 92024 | MLS# 090017344
When you told me about your squash outreach program, I had to look it up to see what it was - I had heard the word before but never knew what the game was... I've played raquetball though....
Pino said his company had an order backlog valued at $12 billion and was in talks on some $1.4 billion of foreign sales over the next three to five years to Albania, Georgia, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
U.S. defense firms look to M&A, international sales. U.S. defense firms look to M&A, international sales
| Reuters
Re poker accounts I think it was one of those offshore gambling sites... it was in the news last week but I didnt really read the article... I recall $33 million in frozen or seized accounts...
That house in Encinitas has some price history... Sold in Feb 2009 and then again in April? for 1/3 less? That didnt take long... Seriously I wonder how they attract any buyers in these areas, with all the costs and problems...
Some people made true fortunes in dot com stocks, but I never touched them - I didnt see any value in any of them... Back then I was buying beat up stocks with low p/e's but high book values... I did really well when Union Carbide got bought out... I bought it cheap after the Bohpal incident.... I did make some money in Novell and got out before it tanked... and a few others... When I was still working full time I didnt spend so much time on investing... In the 1980's I spent about 3 years working with a few other people, trying to write software that would really predict the market - For a while I was a member of the Technical Analysis Society in San Fran... it was very educational but at the end of the whole effort I concluded that no one could tell the future... So now I am just fully diversified and maintain asset allocation percentages... which does not protect you from cliff diving, btw...
hello
Speaking of tax breaks, I thought DC was the market now days?
Just the beginning ...
I remember in ' 97 buying for $20 psf
when replacement was $120 ... with land
But still - $300/ft - pretty expensive digs... Probably will wind up as Govt offices - they can afford it - it's not their money!
Well, in my mind, still too expensive per SF.
We shall finally see stability when they start getting occupancy rates in the mid 80s.
60% means that the new owner still paid too much.
Green shoots my posterior support system.
The next buyer may make money, this one won't.
Someday this war's gonna end....
BT on Cali:
If they let evictions go forward, that screams Equal Protection violation.
It sure looks like in spite of all the govt spending, we are in for a long haul on recovery here... at least another 2 years to the bottom... What a waste...
Construction materials and labor need to come down 40%
How much of that $500/sq foot construction cost represents the cost of the land?
"60% means that the new owner still paid too much."
~~~~
Occupancy will be going down from there ...
Unless of course they have connections that will overpay ...
You think things are good now just wait for the recovery!!!
ShadowInventory
"It sure looks like in spite of all the govt spending, we are in for a long haul on recovery here... at least another 2 years to the bottom... What a waste..."
~~~
What recovery? Just because we stop going down does not mean we go up ...
The Zombie Banks will make sure of that ...
yogi: would you consider this tax cheating or evasion?
Let's say a novelist decides to sell the copyrights to his works to a shell company that he's established in the Netherlands (copyright haven du jour). The Dutch company then licenses the rights to the American publisher for $1M. The American publisher takes a $1M deduction, and the shell company makes $1M that the US can't touch.
i missed it, what is the equal protection argument against a moratorium?
Basel Too -
yogi: would you consider this tax cheating or evasion?
I would say good job Pavel.
"Construction materials and labor need to come down 40% "
So we can put up more pyramids?
Wow, $500/sq ft office building. Must have gold thrones in the toilets. (I've always wanted to crap in a gold one, but I don't think I want the seat to be gold too.
40% off cost.
Emmes?
I had a 50% commercial vacancy when I bought ...
They were a incorporated non profit day care ...
Paid for playground and renovations ...
I gave them the other half for free so they could expand ...
Worked for years ...
Until Arnie cut them off 3 years ago ...
i missed it, what is the equal protection argument against a moratorium?
Well if both parties the bank(lender) and the borrower are not represented( unable to contact them) it doesn't seem like they could make changes to a legal contract.
Can't states issue a moratorium under emergency powers.?
mmckinl -
Until Arnie cut them off 3 years ago ...
Ankle bitters don't vote or pay taxes.
I have never heard of a incorporated non profit day care. I mean that is a very foreign idea to me.
They were a incorporated non profit day care ...
Until Arnie cut them off 3 years ago
Kindergarten Cop 2.
K Cop 2:
"Mr Kimble gets down to business. "
Distinction w/o much difference. I can remember when "shell" clearly implied a scam. A shell game is 3-card monty before paper. I'm going to cop a moot, because publishing profits are disappearing either way.
Cali makes an emergency rule benefiting owners, presumably so they won't be homeless, but lets owners evict tenants? Apply the smell test...
Can they TARP the difference?
Kauai_Kahuna
I thought most non profits had to (be) incorporated ?
Article on Bair and Dugan's feud in the Sunday Times:
As U.S. Overhauls the Banking System, 2 Top Regulators Feud - NY Times
[If Pavel were my client, I'd give him a much more thorough answer, with references]
mmckinl -
I thought most non profits had to (be) incorporated ?
No I was just amazed at a non-profit day care center, those things are like mints around here.
Well anyway there's going to be a lot more cutting of funds ...
Sold that building ... thankfully ...
Cali is in such a mess ... it's depressing ...
I don't have any skin in the game now cept my house (paid),
but just seeing what is going on makes me sad ...
I miss those kids, knowing they had a good daycare ...
The Red Cross had to step in and find new day care for all those families ...
a disaster for everyone involved ...
debtfree -
Article on Bair and Dugan's feud in the Sunday Times:
Yea, I think she is too honest to be where she is, but I hope she is tough enough to win. At least when she speaks it is clear the taxpayer is getting the shaft and deal with it.
I forget most of my tax law. Is there a doctrine that you can't engage in a transaction solely for the purpose of avoiding a tax or is that qualified?
Cali makes an emergency rule benefiting owners, presumably so they won't be homeless, but lets owners evict tenants? Apply the smell test...
There's no protected class, so that the unequal application only has to pass rational basis review. The state would just frame the argument not as a homeless issue, but rather an adjudication of property.
I found it humorous that U2 has stashed its copyrights in a Dutch tax shelter for several years.
.dupe
"No I was just amazed at a non-profit day care center"
Ahh memories of the good old days working at startups in the bay area with 20 somethings.
"I was just amazed at a non-profit day care center, those things are like mints around here."
~~~~
They had 8 locations, ours was the biggest at around 120 kids ... they had 360 kids altogether
low income children 8-5pm, meals etc. Then the bottom fell out when Arnold took over ...
Politics baby ... Politics ...
I believe that the novelist will have a taxable event upon the sale to the shell company. The asset will be valued in excess of the the $ 1MM -received for the license rights on which the novelist will have to pay taxes whether he gets a dime from the shell company or not.
If it's no emergency, then it's a Taking.
I'd give you odds if this one goes up.
poic -
Ahh memories of the good old days working at startups in the bay area with 20 somethings.
Yes, and that 50K a year did buy a lot of beer.
I still hold to the mantra of hire teenagers while they still know everything.
mmckinl -
I am holding out for an outside chance the destructive creativity will make a better world. And please don't laugh, at least I did not use the code word of hope.
Who says the shell paid a million bucks?
Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 8:02 pm reply Ignore user Outsider -
I'm behind on the west coast news, but I just heard Cal. has another foreclosure moratorium starting I believe tomorrow.
Mish had a rant about it today.
Blogger: Page not found...
Thanks for the heads-up KK. That's the kind of info I was looking for.
Office Building Sells at 40% Below Construction Costs
Green Shoots are well contained
Calvinfornia.
I'm trying to figure out who was dumber in this deal. The guy that paid $500/sf to build it or the guy who paid $300/sf for it?
Knowing the income from the 60% that is occupied would help.
Everybody here seems to think Cali is in a horrible mess, so it must be true.
What I'm thinking is that the Cali mess is of a different quality than anything the Fed, or Treasury, or PPT or Obamacons have ever faced before.
I don't get the sense that they are getting out front of the Calif mess with proactive bailout solutions.
And at the same time, Europe is talking about getting out of the bailout game and starting to put tightening measures in place.
I'm thinking that Cali is Obama's Rubicon, and he has no clue how to cross it. It's not within his braintrust or conventional wisdom, and he's not great thinking outside the box.
I'm not saying it's all gonna come to a head in 45 days. They'll find ways to buy time and bullsh*t.
I'm saying they aren't gonna offer any big solutions for CA, at the expense of taxpayers in other states. And they aren't going to make CA's problem the federal govt's problem.
So, that creates a pretty narrow realm of solutions going forward, no?
Not good for either the stock or bond markets, no?
Kauai_Kahuna
"I am holding out for an outside chance the destructive creativity will make a better world. And please don't laugh, at least I did not use the code word of hope."
~~~~
I'm not ... just look at where the money is going ... to the banksters ...
rich
You can throw the whole west coast in ... Nevada and Arizona to boot ...
The whole country needs to be restructured ...
Single Payer
Higher taxes on high income
Cut defense spending
....
I'm saying they aren't gonna offer any big solutions for CA, at the expense of taxpayers in other states. And they aren't going to make CA's problem the federal govt's problem.
I'd be more incline to bet on the solution not being the federal gov't problem and at the expense of the other taxpayers,...if they could recognize these things. How many times have you seen a solution that the politicians said wasn't at the taxpayers expense and not the federal government intervening and yet somehow the taxpayers ended up paying and ended up with a new federal program?. I expect to hear an explosion of protest at whatever happens.
At $300/sf the debt load alone against rentable space is $2/sf per month. Clearly the buyer is banking on appreciation.
3161 Michelson Drive, Irvine:
Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher has the 11th Floor, but the kicker is
The stunning exterior design is complemented by high-quality stone, milled wood paneling and aluminum etched glass features in the lobby. Garden settings at the base of the building provide exquisite open spaces. 3161 Michelson Drive will become an emerging centerpiece of South Orange County.
I guess that explains the $500/sf
Yes, but I'm trying to have a good day, I soaked up all the doom and gloom working 12 hour shifts that went from mad house to dead every 30 minutes or so.
But if there is a boom, along with the doom here I just might be able to afford a single family home here in a few years. Kicking up my savings and I just might be able to do it for cash if the boom is big enough.
I found my green shoot.
At $300/sf the debt load alone against rentable space is $2/sf per month. Clearly the buyer is banking on appreciation.
On inflation or hyperinflation?
Speaking of Cali, and not hearing much of the day to day news, is Cali still going to run out of $$? Is that tidal wave still going to hit land? I've been hearing warnings for what seems like a really long time. IOUs, cutting govt. workers, the $10K new home tax credits running out... But after you hear a headline, it just kind of fizzles away into silence. A major happening in Cal. will affect the rest of us 49ers, so I'm trying to keep my ears open.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 6:11 pm
At $300/sf the debt load alone against rentable space is $2/sf per month. Clearly the buyer is banking on appreciation.
On inflation or hyperinflation?
Only if they got unusual terms. A typical 3-5 CRE balloon loan doesn't outrun inflation.
At $300/sf the debt load alone against rentable space is $2/sf per month. Clearly the buyer is banking on appreciation.
The original developer was making an even bigger bet on appreciation
The lease with New Century was at $3/sf/mo, full service gross.
New Century was going to take 130,000 sq ft.
PARK PLACE
OFFICE LEASE
by and between
MAGUIRE PROPERTIES — 3161 MICHELSON, LLC
a Delaware limited liability company
and
NEW CENTURY FINANCIAL CORPORATION
a Maryland corporation
Dated: May 26, 2005
Makes me think the revenue on the 60% that is occupied is nothing to brag about.
The Gubernator said "The Day of Reckoning is here. We're broke."
The money man said' "No, muscle-head you have 50 days. Save the Hollywood act"
how is the moratorium a taking?
They are going to have to continue to adjust their numbers - downwards. If the states were auto dealers - most would be Chrysler
Source: Recession Continues to Batter State Budgets; State Responses Could Slow Recovery — Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
States are facing a great fiscal crisis. At least 47 states faced or are facing shortfalls in their budgets for this and/or the next year or two. Combined budget gaps for the remainder of this fiscal year and state fiscal years 2010 and 2011 are estimated to total more than $350 billion. This figure, however, does not account for recent state actions to close their 2009 budget gaps or their projected gaps for 2010 or 2011, or for the $140 billion in fiscal relief that Congress provided for states in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
States are currently at the mid-point of fiscal year 2009 — which started July 1 in most states — and are in the process of preparing their budgets for the next year. Over half the states had already cut spending, used reserves, or raised revenues in order to adopt a balanced budget for the current fiscal year — which started July 1 in most states. Now, their budgets have fallen out of balance again. New gaps of $59 billion (some 9 percent of state budgets) have opened up in the budgets of at least 42 states plus the District of Columbia. These budget gaps are in addition to the $48 billion shortfalls that these and other states faced as they adopted their budgets for the current fiscal year, bringing total gaps for the year to 16 percent of budgets.
Arnie claims to have gotten the message from Cali taxpayers and is finally staring down the Dems and their union-enablers -- no new taxes, no new borrowing, no short term extensions. Let's see if he sticks to that. The countdown is definitely on.
Meanwhile, rumors are that the Dem / union relationships are getting strained, as the unions want higher taxes and no cuts, period. Heck, the unions themselves are trying to float initiatives for higher taxes on just about everything. I hope they do, because they'll get slapped down again even harder and would engender an even greater backlash.
[snark] California is Giethner's Lehman Brothers. He'll let it collapse and then call in the other governors. He'll give the UP to Wisconsin and the rest of Michigan to Illinois. Just like Paulson did with Merrill.
The Obama/California connection is complicated by the fact that LA county went very heavy for Hillary, and the mayors of SF and LA both campaigned hard for her...
This is just Cincinnati. I bet every state in the union has a story like this...
Source: Cincinnati's pension shortfall grows to $914M - Business Courier of Cincinnati:
Unfunded liabilities in the Cincinnati Retirement System more than doubled to $914 million in the last year and will reach $1.8 billion in five years if the city council fails to increase contributions to the plan or reduce health benefits for some 4,400 retirees.
TJ, before you and others cast Arnie as some kind of fiscal conservative, remember that he first came to state politics by supporting a school bond proposition which has the exact kind of nature as the programs being cut.
He's a social liberal and substantial landlord (like the family he married into) with absolutely no clue how to run a non-boom economy.
$500 per square foot is only profitable if you can get a lot of leverage AND if your bet is right.
That leverage must have been murder with a 40% off sale.
Arnie claims to have gotten the message from Cali taxpayers and is finally staring down the Dems and their union-enablers -- no new taxes, no new borrowing, no short term extensions. Let's see if he sticks to that. The countdown is definitely on.
Isn't it too late to look for union concessions? Aren't the current retirees already pulling the state into the red? No matter what they decide from here on out, I thought the current load was too much for Cal. to bear.
I'm sure Cali. is in dire straits, but sometimes it seems as if Hollywood isn't the only drama center out there.
California is Giethner's Lehman Brothers. He'll let it collapse and then call in the other governors.
Dawg: didn't we (using term loosely) vote for Hilary in the primary. Hope Obama doesn't hold a grudge.
Should we remind everyone of the $17 billion Federal loan to our unemployment fund? This is on top of the $24+ billion general fund shortfall.
Here's a current CA debt offering:
CA 3/1/2018 25 CALIFORNIA ST PUB WKS BRD A3 A NATL-RE FGIC 5.000 5.350 97.58 3/1/2017 100.00 130685AN0
That's insured, double rated, double tax free debt and it still demands 5.350%! 45 days my ass. Mr. Market will shut down even routine transaction long before that. Calvinfornia is clearly getting ready to change the rules on its outstanding debt obligations. The sad part is not only won't it work but if it did work it wouldn't solve the problems.
Obama has made public statements that the Fed. Govt. will not bail out CA.... hehehe.... Rock and a hard place... Meanwhile, oh the humanity, all those able bodied adults who decided to be dependent on taxpayer handouts are going to be eating air pudding with wind sauce, maybe a little hot water with canola oil from the Salvation Army... Experience is the best teacher...
Example of how welfare for the poor isn't just for the poor.
Providing Cellphones for the Poor
In a twist, wireless carriers are receiving subsidies to provide people like Mr. Cobb with a phone and typically 68 minutes of talk time each month. It is a form of wireless welfare that putsa societal stamp on the central role played by the mobile device....
“The low hanging fruit is gone, and the wireless companies are going after the nooks and crannies,” said Roger Entner, a wireless industry analyst with Nielsen. “Oh, the poor: How can we sign them up?”
Carriers can receive up to $10 a month in government subsidies, sufficient to cover what amounts to about $3 in service, Mr. Entner said.
Phooey. Let Cali rot until some sense is pounded in.
Nitey nite.
RD I am digging all the CalvinWords...
Ms. Bass, speaker of the CA house "Oh we mus protect those poor people"...
Poor People "Oh we were such idiots to think that Ms. Bass was going to provide for us"....
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 6:27 pm
* reply
* Ignore user
Phooey. Let Cali rot until some sense is pounded in.
Nitey nite.
If I didn't live here, then I would agree with you.
since I am a californian, i'm undecided.
Basel Too -
I'm to cheap to have a cell phone, I also hate them.
I'm just wondering if instead of a chicken in every pot, it wi-fi for the homeless.
--background swearing and muttering.
Sorry, Basel, Public Use, not taking. (Same Amendment, different Clause)
What is the public purpose, and how can it rationally distinguish tenants?
Only in America do the poor have cell phones, microwave ovens, tv sets, computers, cars, etc etc... Enough already...
since I am a californian, i'm undecided.
That is CalvinFornian...
ShadowInventory
Cali is just 6 months ahead of the United States ...
then we'll see what you say ...
You knew there had to be a youtube on it:
3161 Michelson Drive
I don't know which sign I like better. The New Century on top of the building or the Fatburger down the street.
Obama is a Chicago machine politician. He counted the California vote three different ways. Sure there's the Hillary bit but that's just the first vote he counts. Second is $. California filled his campaign and he knows it. In fact without it again he knows he's in trouble. Third way of counting the votes in California is the prospect of a massive party shift. I know some people think that's impossible but if there is pain even those places gerrymandered at the census block level are going to elect intranigent democrats in name only.
"I would say good job Pavel."
Kauai_Kahuna, my accountant would never be a party to such shenanigans.
sporty that video reminds me of one of those "Life after People' shows...
mmmmmmmm
Fatbuuuuuuuurger ......'
Not quite an In and Out but at least we have 'em (Fatburgers) up my way
"[snark] California is Giethner's Lehman Brothers. He'll let it collapse and then call in the other governors. He'll give the UP to Wisconsin and the rest of Michigan to Illinois. Just like Paulson did with Merrill."
Nothing if not creative.
Were I qualified to evaluate the impressive legal exchanges here, I would say: I came, I saw, I concurred.
Third way of counting the votes in California is the prospect of a massive party shift. I know some people think that's impossible but
Rob I know better than to argue with you. But the day California becomes a red state while NH is a blue state is the day the world is indeed plumb crazy. Never happen.
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 6:27 pm
Phooey. Let Cali rot until some sense is pounded in.
For want of a nail Liz, for want of a nail...
... and when they came for me there was no one...
pavel.chichikov -
Kauai_Kahuna, my accountant would never be a party to such shenanigans.
Pavel !
As always everything I say is based in sarcasm and a good amount of stupidity. Actually your the only published author I knew on this so.
"Kauai_Kahuna, my accountant would never be a party to such shenanigans."
Anyway, what would be the legal basis for the deduction?
Irvine is the most interesting part of OC, and is what defines the direction of everything behind the Orange Curtain. In the post industrial cuber punk reality that is emerging, Gibson would be at home , as the dregs and talent of what is left of society fight to survive.
The rest of OC is surf fashion and greedy development, with the shallow end of the pool being where the game is played.
Cheap broadband is a public good. I want the poor informed about swine flu and the latest political movements. Who will be on the front lines, with the pitchforks, fat slob Limbaugh?
pavel.chichikov -
Kauai_Kahuna, my accountant would never be a party to such shenanigans.
Pavel !
As always everything I say is based in sarcasm..."
Kauai_Kahuna, my reply was a bit on the light side too.
Anyway, isn't Dirk a published writer?
1 currency now -
Yes, but all they do is hang out on twitter, IM friends and watch youtube videos of people kicking each other in the balls.
Well, at least they will be prepared for the pain.
TJ, before you and others cast Arnie as some kind of fiscal conservative
HA, fat chance of THAT ever happening. Didn't you note that my comment was absolutely dripping with skepticism???
Outsider, read my words again. The new delegation will still be democrat but they won't be reliably party line democrat and they won't be the emasculated rabble they are now.
Dawg - I think the upers might want to pick Canada, but great idea otherwise!
And the poor is a constantly expanding pool of new/old clients...
Cheap broadband is a public good.
Clearly not getting it.
We're still in the "Wrath of God On The E-Ville Sinners" stage of thought.
Dang.
nova beat me to the cbpp.org link.
Umm, what to do, desperate search for relevance... Aha!
Maryland's Thick Smug Lines on Budget:
Maryland Politics Watch: At Least We Aren't California
C
yogi: my only issue is that the cell carrier is receiving $10 in subsidies for $3 worth of services.
pavel.chichikov
Kauai_Kahuna, my accountant would never be a party to such shenanigans.
I figured, otherwise they would most likely be unemployed.
excuse me....
ah....
I am a published author!
I get no love anywhere...
Well, slightly o.t.
oil is looking like a surplus will be noticed this week, since, once again, Israel didn't bomb Iran, and oceans of crude are afloat awaiting a summer (non)driving season in America.
Nothing like seeing $2.85-2.95 a gallon for premium , up 90 cents in 9 weeks.
I guess once again oil traders are going to shear some hedge funds.
Why people who only know advanced calculus think they know more than traders who have lived and died by the bottom line in the pit for decades eludes me, and the fact that idiots gave them massive amounts of money to play with only reinforces the insanity that is wall street.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I wonder who the Chief Economist at Maguire Properties was.
Let's see, we'll build it for $500 a foot, then rent it for $3 a foot per month. Yeah, that's the ticket.
I'm a published author too.
C
nova -
I am a published author!
OK all, just off the top of my head, Pavel was the first that came to mind. There is not much left there after a 24 hour stretch.
I don't know which sign I like better. The New Century on top of the building or the Fatburger down the street.
Sportsfan-- If you only knew, as this would make kafka blush.
sportfan, that was an MBA, guaranteed.
Plus, a genius wrote the financing!!!
Why should anybody be surprised by the wreckage being exposed by the receding tide is beyond me, and what I am amazed by is how little has surfaced- there is much more to come!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Citizen AllenM -
oil is looking like a surplus
I hope so, but the insanity can last a very long time, but I don't see high gas prices helping the muddle through that I'm hoping for. I paid 2.98 this morning, and I'm sure it will hit 3 within the week here.
Publishes author?
Not under this pseudonym.
But under others.
Sorry, nova, my long term memory is obviously beginning to slip. Apologies.
Comrade Scott (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 6:43 pm
Dawg - I think the upers might want to pick Canada, but great idea otherwise!
Oh yeah and then every State touching the 49th Parallel gets the same idea and the rats leaving the ship swamp the boat.
Doesn't hurt that I'm in Montreal at the moment enjoying this pleasant urbane functioning metropolis.
my long term memory is obviously beginning to slip.
Lucky dog.
NorkaWest,
What's to decide? You know as well as I that nothing will be resolved until California hits the financial wall. Let's get it over with already.
there is much more to come!!
A friend is working on a $64M hotel foreclosure. The damn thing sold in 8/2007 for $34M.
Sheesh
Anne Coulter is a published author ...
Oops. Due Process, of course. Getting sloppy.
It's ok Pavel. I'm at 1,234,000 on the Amazon BestSellers list so I am going to be keeping my day job.
Sportsfan-- If you only knew, as this would make kafka blush.
adornosghost, that whole world behind the Orange Curtain is ultimately unknowable by me.
I only admit to trying to penetrate the fog on occasion in order to watch my child perform.
But it is CR's home turf, so I try not to trash it. He might take it personally.
What's a BestSellers list?
C
actually, AG, much of OC is more crappy working-class California than surf and greed - Santa Ana, Fullerton, Anaheim...
and no one should confuse Irvine with a city - it is a thinly-disguised corporation which only reluctantly became a municipality in the 70s
Watch it, Dawg. Some bleeding hearts will start taking that as you endorsing all manner of Canadian socialist endeavors.
"my long term memory is obviously beginning to slip.
Lucky dog."
It's not slipping all that much.
"To what do you ascribe your longevity (100th birthday)?"
"A bad memory."
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 6:52 pm
there is much more to come!!
A friend is working on a $64M hotel foreclosure. The damn thing sold in 8/2007 for $34M.
Friends don't cut friends out of the non-contingency fees.
enjoying this pleasant urbane functioning metropolis.
Dawg praises the joys of socialism.
Madness spreads across the land.
A friend is working on a $64M hotel foreclosure. The damn thing sold in 8/2007 for $34M.
Which raises the question: where the hell did the $30 million come from?
1934 bonds?
"Sheesh
Anne Coulter is a published author ..."
There may be fine writers out there who can't get published. There are certainly many lousy ones who do.
TJ and The Bear (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 6:54 pm
Watch it, Dawg. Some bleeding hearts will start taking that as you endorsing all manner of Canadian socialist endeavors.
You mean like sweeping the freakin' streets and fixing potholes? Goddamn, I'm a socialist too then.
SEE! I TOLD YOU SO!!!
Rob Dawg -
Goddamn, I'm a socialist too then.
Man step a way for a second and reality did a 5th dimension shift on me!
I hate when that happens.
"Dawg praises the joys of socialism."
Like the two Moscow office workers who started the day with two cream puffs each and water tumblers filled with vodka? Is joy the same thing as anesthesia?
Now, pavel, Canadian socialism isn't the same as Russian socialism.
It's 55 degrees in RIga. One of my functioning freaking lame ass digital tv stations told me so.
Is joy the same thing as anesthesia?
We'll find out when Cali legalizes pot for revenue generation.
Which raises the question: where the hell did the $30 million come from?
It's part of a toxic MER CMBS. I want to know where the $30M went.
"You mean like sweeping the freakin' streets and fixing potholes?"
~~~~
or ...
a working 911 number ...
Remember the days when The Palm Springs Fire Department had an unlisted phone number ?
or am I the only one ...?
Even a total idiot like myself laughed reading this....
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries rose for a third day after Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said his nation has full confidence in the dollar and there are no immediate plans to switch to a new reserve currency.
I want to know where the $30M went.
You're not supposed to ask those kind of questions. You know, free market capitalism and all that jazz.
Everyone's a published author now. That's the beauty of it.
I am authoring and journalasting in front of the whole internet right now.
How naughty... woof woof.
New bubble coming, G8 "exit strategies":
G-8 Plans to Reverse Stimulus as Rebound Signs Grow (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Because the multi mega hyper universal stimuli worked so well.
Or from capitalism to corporatism, it's not entirely clear.
C
Lothar the Rottweiler
Supposedly there are more people writing novels in America than there are reading them.
yogi: to have a due process claim, there has to be a deprivation of property without notice. What is the (1) deprivation and (2) the property interest?
"But... but... it's so clean in Toronto" said the Dawg to the Tortoise.
Counterpointer,
Getting a little ahead of themselves, aren't they?
Kauai, TJ, Horne, et al;
Just because I justifiably bust on US dystopic urbania don't mistake that for a blanket dislike of urban areas. I am good at skewering the bad precisely because I don't turn a blind eye to the good. There are some interesting things I'm noticing. Montreal for one thing doesn't do "urban renewal" to their credit. The discrete buildings are from many eras and of varying quality and function. The University has a huge modern building complex but kept the facade of the old church as their gateway architecture for instance.
a blanket dislike of urban areas.
Don't worry, Dawg.
I'll offer you asylum in Idaho if it becomes necessary.
Us socialists have to stick together.
TJ - Asia thinks so, equities are tanking, right now and there's a surge of appreciation against USD amongst my usual currency reference quad. Mrs Watanabe is getting her uridashi bond recipe out too.
C
Dawg, not a problem, I find myself going in all directions now days.
Nova: #iranelection - Twitter Search
You can watch an attempted revolution in real-time, until they shut it down.
Cheers.
Counterpointer -
Let me know when it more of a 5% drop, any bets?
Just because I justifiably bust on US dystopic urbania don't mistake that for a blanket dislike of urban areas.
Never, just bustin' on you 'cuz I'm jealous you're there and I'm not!
Damn Lakers.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 7:12 pm
a blanket dislike of urban areas.
Don't worry, Dawg.
I'll offer your asylum in Idaho if it becomes necessary.
Us socialists have to stick together.
Right neighborly uv ya. I shure hope you don't mind the smell of my reducing my hops crop down to concentrate with the waste heat from the sour mash distillation process (during the potato vodka off-season of course).
Seriously tho, a couple winters in Idaho and I'd be ready for an asylum. I grew up (feh!) in New England, dropped off my thesis and rode my motorcycle until I hit the boardwalk in Santa Monica. When I want winter I visit it at my mountain cabin.
Rob Dawg - my hops crop
Chilling down a Chimay blue clone right now, making a braggot with the extra runnings. Busy day but I love the smell.
Damn Lakers.
Yeah, I can't believe they're going to make all those playoffs tickets worthless.
Talk about wealth destruction.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 9:43 pm reply Ignore user Outsider, read my words again. The new delegation will still be democrat but they won't be reliably party line democrat and they won't be the emasculated rabble they are now.
Oh. so you're saying it'll still be a blue state, just varying shades of blue? We'll now have to differentiate between light blue, pale blue, midnight blue, royal blue, etc. Life is getting very complicated.
a couple winters in Idaho
Yes, I remember when I was in Thousand Oaks, thinking the same thing.
Boise is not New England.
I like Seattle and Portland better, heck, probably Denver, too.
But L.A.?
Sorry, I grew up there, perhaps it's different if you dreamed about it for decades.
It has no appeal for me.
Actually, maybe we'll all end up being purple.
No bets on this market Kauai K. SAXCME Asia 50 has managed to ditch 1.5% already this morning, probably just Monday grumps. (Actually, anyone recall anything significant on May 13? SAX spiked to 20b in volume that day in a selloff.) The broad index is mostly dragged down by Taiwan and Korea. Looks like Nikki's going to test 10k to start the week.
C
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 7:27 pm
a couple winters in Idaho -RD
Yes, I remember when I was in Thousand Oaks, thinking the same thing.
Boise is not New England.
I like Seattle and Portland better, heck, probably Denver, too.
But L.A.?
Sorry, I grew up there, perhaps it's different if you dreamed about it for decades.
It has no appeal for me.
Oh, no. LA sucks. As in great big sucking sound as it circles the drain. LA is the antipode of Montreal in many ways. Perhaps you didn't realize, I live on the back side of the hill in Camarillo. While only 45 miles west of LA it is a world away. Moreso even today than probably the T.O. you may recall from years past.
One thing Cal. does have in common with New England is Six Flags.
We need a Six Flags bailout. Whichever party proposes a bailout for Six Flags will have loyal voters in about 5-10 years.
perhaps you didn't realize, I live on the back side of the hill in Camarillo
No, i knew.
I graduated from Royal High, we played tournaments in Camarillo.
I know the area, I lived in Simi, TO, Northridge, SLO, Palmdale, Woodland Hills and did field service calls all over Socal.
Luckily, none of these CA budget & immigration issues will affect you.
Vaguely not O/T for a change:
CRE Revisionism Alert : Manhattan Edition
"What ended up killing us was the foreclosure crisis because that's what killed Wall Street," said Rick Hoffman, a regional senior vice president in the Hamptons for the Corcoran Group, a high-end brokerage. "It bit us in the end."
Is the housing bust about to take Manhattan?
| Reuters
Foreclosures killed Wall St, huh?
C
The "Six Flags" in Agawam used to be called Riverside Park. It was one of their aggressive expansion takeovers that sank them with debt. Western Mass, indeed much of the area surrounding Agawam is experiencing a Japan/Western Europe demographic implosion. There's nothing left to keep the productive classes so there's no loyalty to buy.
America is in the process of having its biggest banks, which under laws written in the 1930's would either have been bankrupt, or even never have been able in the first place to become so addicted to such highly leveraged wagers -executed with depositors' money- that these could bankrupt them, dictate the terms of the reform of ... banks. It's complete and utter insanity. There is zero chance that the banks - represented in Washington by Rubin, Summers, Geithner and a thousand other revolving door faces - will regulate themselves to the point where their potential of making the highest possible profits will be curtailed or eliminated
We can spend much time wondering in bewilderment why the last tree was cut down on Easter Island. We can also, however, look at ourselves and recognize that we do indeed know the answer to that question.
==AE
indeed much of the area surrounding Agawam is experiencing a Japan/Western Europe demographic implosion.
Pretty much all schools from hours away flock to Agawam for Six Flags. Plus summer camps, vacationers, etc. You'd think that would help alleviate their population gaps.
Probably when that last tree was cut, children were freezing. Vikram Pandit though lives well on that dollar.
So is there any rules of thumb for dummies on calculating $/sft for living and land outside of lower is better and general averages for the area that have been blown up beyond recognition?
Nitey night gang...
a Japan/Western Europe demographic implosion
I was worried about the weather here but it's surprisingly good. What sucks are jobs and inbred attitude (30% ex-CA, 30% Mormon, 40% other). Small-time corruption. Not much crime or traffic ( locals complain but they don't know what "traffic" is ). Boring compared to Seattle or Portland. Lots of young women looking for marriage (yeck).
I limit my job search mostly to cities I know and liked - Seattle, Portland, Denver.
Not much desire to return to Vegas, Phoenix, LA or SF or anything east of Denver.
I lived in LA too long, I like the greenery of the coastal cities.
"And if this is a mommy or nanny state situtation, all that I can say is the last 7 years
have proven to my satisfaction that a mommy or nanny is needed."
We had a mommy/nanny for the last 7 (and 70) years--but she was a Mommie Dearest meth-head who abused and robbed us.
Saving was like using a wire hangar.
Broward,
Coastal Calvinfornia is unmatched for the top 5 percenters. I don't even know how the bottom 50% manage. Or why they even try.
But enough.
Red eye LAX-BOS, 300 mi driving, through 4 States. Time to hit the sack. Lots of museums tomorrow. One takeaway thought; Montreal gets away with more French only than Los Angeles could get away with English only.
Nite all from socialist Nationalist Quebec. [I'll read a few responses before turning in.]
Mrs Watanabe is making morning tea. S&P Asia 50 now down 1.8%. US futures now elmo.
That'll do me.
C
(PS lost the link but VIX & More is doing a VIX-Roubini chart...)
nytol
Maybe Goldilocks is waking up to her nightmare.
"Foreclosures killed Wall St, huh?"
Those poor, defenseless, Masters of the Universe hedge-fund managers were victimized by Joe Sixpack?
Rob Dawg,
This is the time of year when the women come out in Montreal, and it looks like you'll have fairly good weather for bird-watching.
If you happen to be on Boulevard Saint-Laurent near Rue Sherbrooke, you might want to see what's happening at Ex-Centris.
Very nice theaters.
*oops
counterpointer,
I think we are about to have a very interesting moment coming with a loss of confidence in green shoots.
One of the biggest signs will be the plummet in oil as it piles up high and wide.
The monkeying with the crude build stats will continue until something large breaks.
The biggest problem will be keeping the panic from forcing a large amount of folks to dump their stock at the first sign of renewed flop.
Psychology dictates that the next big drop will fear driven.
Now that fear of loss has been built back into the system, expect it to be exercised.
Ugh. I can't wait to go to work tomorrow and stop paying attention to this mess.
Someday this war's gonna end...
One of the biggest signs will be the plummet in oil as it piles up high and wide.
That's not the first time that has been predicted here. I keep hoping the oil plummeters are right.
Outsider-
That's not the first time that has been predicted here. I keep hoping the oil plummeters are right.
I did not predict it, but I did sell all my energy stocks a few weeks ago, hey I don't mind being a little early, it's better than being a little late.
Mommie Dearest nanny state punishes frugality:
YouTube -
Outsider- $50 to $40 is hardly a crash.
Just where it should be to keep the middle east barely in business.
The biggest problem is once again, everyone wants 2005 through 2007 to return. It is dead and gone.
Act accordingly. Further, we still have massive damage working its way through the system.
The same argument applies to dropping the dollar, it is the only thing preventing autarky in the international trade system, so those who live by trade desperately need it to survive for a while longer, or to identify the next numeraire and jump aboard.
Right now Pax Americana still reigns, but the days are numbered before we begin to concentrate on our internal problems and ignore the rest of the world.
That is truly when the odure hits the rotating fixture.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Oil ?
When will the depletion outrun the depression ?
The deprived interest is the foreclosure right in the property, for three months. Time is money, and there is probably no recourse. Delayed is denied...
If 3 months expires, and it is renewed, nothing has changed. After some number of 3 month periods, it must violate due process, the question is whether one is that number.
1 currency now -yogi
Arnie going to sign the foreclosure moratorium ?
Yogi where do you work? Law firm? Govt?
I'm out of the law game. I worked for a couple of NY State Court Judges for 7 years.
LOL - Another wasted college education - well maybe not wasted really, but still... I hope you didnt have student loans...
As I recall U Miami School of Law was about 10k tuition in the '80s, and housing cheap. So I turned down a nice deal at New York Law School (not NYU).
So are you in non-profit now?
"So are you in non-profit now?"
We're all non-profit now.
Yes that's true - for about 18 months at least...
ye gawds, the stupidity of the MSM continues unabated.
RPT-Wall St Week Ahead: Housing, CPI may feed recovery hopes
| Reuters
Highlights for the week include:
" Housing starts are seen rising to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 490,000 units in May from April's pace of 458,000 units, while building permits are expected to rise at a pace of 500,000 units, compared with 498,000 in April.
"That's going to be an important number because we want to see a stabilization in the housing area and an improvement there, so anything that has to do with existing or new starts is critical," Mendelsohn said." This man should be fired!!!
Um, how about a drop in foreclosures and a positive unemployment report -like under 400k?
Seriously folks, as long as this type of stupidity continues, we are not near a real recovery.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I thought he signed already, and it takes effect Monday
Builders have to build, and I bet you can get a lot more for your money now on a new house than 2 years ago... Not to mention that some people dont want a fixer or even a used house... Not that a new house is better by any means - and then there is that location thing...
I'm in the money game and I coach a college team.
1 currency now -yogi
"I thought he signed already, and it takes effect Monday"
~~~~
That may slow foreclosures down but won't stop them ...
I thought this was something new ... like a complete stop ...
This will surely bump the numbers up for the fall ...
Money good...
This may have already been posted, I find it hilarious - Lehman has to buy their chairs and desks back from Barclays!
Lehman to Pay Barclays $6 Million for Its Own Chairs (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
ShadowInventory
I'd be afraid to buy new right now ...
You could end up in the middle of empty lots and unfinished houses ...
They can't be building more condos can they ... ?
They are stinko just about everywhere ...
Where the Hell are these 500,000 units being built ?
I just can't see it ...
If the builders would build houses that make sense, they could probably sell a few at the right price.
I think it's going to get harder and harder to build anything saleable as cities and counties get more desperate for money. Who would buy a condo with HOA and Mello-Roos loads on top of regular property taxes at this point? Also, Mello-Roos CFDs are funded by selling bonds, which may get a bit tricky soon. Not to mention the new planning fees and other Cr4p that local government will attempt to lard on...
Well, the way I parse this is bad for oil too:
" Besides data on construction of new housing, which has been among the weakest parts of the economy, investors will scrutinize readings on inflation at the wholesale and consumer level, when the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index for May are released this week. Wall Street also will note the numbers on industrial production and capacity utilization as well as weekly initial jobless claims.
With oil prices back above $70 a barrel, inflation worries could hinder the Federal Reserve's efforts to end the recession, pushing up interest rates and delaying any recovery.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak on Wednesday at a global financial literacy summit in Washington."
From the same article.
Gee, high oil and gasoline prices are inflationary. That will be solved.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Money is the root of all evil green shoots
What's your field, Shadow?
One of our family members has tried to work for affordable housing but has given up - he says the political powers in his CA town only want high end housing which will generate revenue without a lot of problems - low end housing takes up a lot of services...
1960s - Aviation electronics in the Navy, 1970's Minicomputer system software, 1980's owned a full service car wash, 1990's owned an auto body shop and tow yard, Late 90s - Network and IT engineer for a national company for about 5 years... Then my wife and I took care of her parents for 7 years - her dad just passed away this week....
Damn, SI, I'm sure you've got some stories to tell!
There goes the bucky !!!
BRIC seeks global voice at first summit
BRIC seeks global voice at first summit
| Reuters
Leaders of the so-called BRIC nations will discuss ways to reshape the global financial system after the worst economic crisis for decades and ideas for a new reserve currency to reduce dependency on the U.S. dollar may be on the agenda
Ya I would get bored and look for a new challenge... I grew up on a farm so I learned a lot of skills there, and when I was in public school it was still worth something too...
I wonder if there will be a war on mainland asia - china, india, russia....
Can't forget Kashmir for that asian land war.
Sorry to hear of your in-law.
I too get the itch. I may or may not have partnered in a poker club for a year, depending on the Statute of Limitations.
krish
Nah .... just the first step in a long journey ...
The world economy goes into crisis everybody eats S$*%
Krish, not yet.
nothing viable to replace yet.
Give it ten years and it will be evident.
Right now everybody else is q.e. as fast as they can behind the scenes to contain this mess.
It's not working, but, ya now, they gotta try.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Actually I think a background in law is really valuable if you go into any business... The only thing today is that nothing looks really enticing... everything is retrenching... Even my plumber buddy is having problems with his biz... I suppose there is probably some way to suck up some of that federal money that is being tossed out the window, but that doesnt appeal to me...
Can the BRIC decouple?
Yogi did you have one of those poker accounts that was frozen or seized recently?
No one is mobilizing for an Asian land war ...
The only country idiotic enough to be waging war right now is US!
And it is bankrupting US!
"Can the BRIC decouple?"
No ...
My one world currency advocacy has to stay strictly not-for-profit to maintain credibility, but I'm always looking for a chance to open a squash club, among other small businesses.
...any rules of thumb for dummies on calculating $/sft for living and land
Seems to me in a price collapse the only rule left is recent sales $psf, which has led PS to the downside by a lot over 2 years. I ask listings and 30 day sales for selected Redfin zip codes, and typically get back a grim lower end picture with listings at $300 psf, 6-12 month sales around $200 psf, and recent sales below $100 psf. The old metrics are dead and prices are like news, getting old real fast. And the realtors I ask, who see this disparity every day, deny it is happening. Here's Encinitas asking $440 psf, 6-12 month sales at $320 psf, and a recent sale at $168 psf: 817 Clark, Encinitas, CA 92024 | MLS# 090017344
When you told me about your squash outreach program, I had to look it up to see what it was - I had heard the word before but never knew what the game was... I've played raquetball though....
No I don't play much on line, which site?
If and when a real war emerges our forces will be tired and depleted
and our treasury full of IOUs ...
Here is the positive side of higher gas price.
Pino said his company had an order backlog valued at $12 billion and was in talks on some $1.4 billion of foreign sales over the next three to five years to Albania, Georgia, Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
U.S. defense firms look to M&A, international sales.
U.S. defense firms look to M&A, international sales
| Reuters
Chess and checkers, we say.
A squash player pal had a nice share of an early successful site. Cashed out with a killing just before they tightened the rules.
Re poker accounts I think it was one of those offshore gambling sites... it was in the news last week but I didnt really read the article... I recall $33 million in frozen or seized accounts...
That house in Encinitas has some price history... Sold in Feb 2009 and then again in April? for 1/3 less? That didnt take long... Seriously I wonder how they attract any buyers in these areas, with all the costs and problems...
krish
Defense firms sell to those countries we give foreign aide to ...
Most of our foreign aide is military hardware ...
What you see are tax payer dollars subsidizing defense contractors
by way of foreign aid ...
Why we can't sell them farm tractors from caterpillar or case is crazy ...
Just another defense industry subsidy ...
Gah, Biden says stimulus not having much impact!!!
Key Quotes from Biden on the Stimulus - The Page by Mark Halperin - TIME.com
Green shoot wither and die.
Get ready for some backing up in the markets.
Ready for the next stimulus package!!!!
Someday this war's gonna end....
Some people made true fortunes in dot com stocks, but I never touched them - I didnt see any value in any of them... Back then I was buying beat up stocks with low p/e's but high book values... I did really well when Union Carbide got bought out... I bought it cheap after the Bohpal incident.... I did make some money in Novell and got out before it tanked... and a few others... When I was still working full time I didnt spend so much time on investing... In the 1980's I spent about 3 years working with a few other people, trying to write software that would really predict the market - For a while I was a member of the Technical Analysis Society in San Fran... it was very educational but at the end of the whole effort I concluded that no one could tell the future... So now I am just fully diversified and maintain asset allocation percentages... which does not protect you from cliff diving, btw...
TA is astrology to me, or self-fulfilling momentum. I love numbers but not useful to predict human behavior.
PIGGED BY KRUGMAN DAMN HIM!!!!
No talk about smuggled bearer bonds, here. Is that story now dead and forgotten?