"Clinton's record promoted as having generated a surplus. It never happened. There was never a surplus and the facts support that position. In fact, far from a $360 billion reduction in the national debt in FY1998-FY2000, there was an increase of $281 billion."
Note that the article above stated there were 20 square feet of retail space per person in shopping centers in 2003 - and that was before the more recent building boom.
Has anybody calculated the number of jobs per square foot of retail space? I wonder if retail jobs have grown linearly with shopping space. It might be interesting to calculate how many excess retail jobs all that excess space generated.
I think for the last 40 years there has been too much mall space and not enough downtown space and neighborhoods that were not suburbs and exurbs. It is happening here in Greece now but behind the curve that I lived in there. Sorry to be so curmudgeonly retrograde, but we used to ride our bikes, hang out at the summer programs the village provided and just play as long as our parents would let us. A big treat was having money for soft drinks for the crew--once a week if we were lucky, but that is Happy Days.
I wonder how "prestige" location malls - georgetown, century city, etc - are doing in this climate, i.e., whether or not they mirror the nearby residential trend
I never go to that sort of mall, but I do have to travel through the Montana Ave shopping district occasionally. And it looks like it's getting hammered - there must be 20 vacant stores in 10 blocks.
Most of those stores had no reason to exist in the first place, but still, it's a noticeable decline. Vacant stores were a rarity only a year ago.
I don't know when you sold your apartments, but it was a smart move staying away from commercial. I learned my lesson the hard way in the 1980's when the Reagan tax changes wiped out the last strip mall boom.
So we have lots of space for creative reuse as the price per square foot plummets.
Big deal. The world is not collapsing into a Kunstleresque apocalypse.
Now, like Krugman worries, we will have a lost decade (okay, maybe 8 years, depending on where you start), but what are you going to do about it?
I postulate that we will see waves of inflation and deflation, and only as the rest of the world recovers and takes up our slack will inflation really take off.
We will see much more stimulus as the economy fails to grow, and even dips falling periodically.
I don't see much real happiness for the constant growth crowd until we have demographic growth in young people. Japan has not encouraged demographic growth through social policy, instead they have coddled the elderly and middle aged, thus failing inflation.
We have laws that make it suicidal for responsible men to marry or have kids.
//I don't see much real happiness for the constant growth crowd until we have demographic growth in young people. Japan has not encouraged demographic growth through social policy, instead they have coddled the elderly and middle aged, thus failing inflation.//
Some one asked about my schemes. I think if they were attended to homes would go up in price far more slowly, more debt would successfully be repaid, big profits would be lessened, young men would be very frustrated (tough), fewer economically-- Darwinian-ly challenged persons would be eliminated. (bad?). The riches pyramid would be flattened.
By the way, i propose that nobody under 20 should be allowed to take out total student loans of
over $5000. They would have to--
Go to Jr college or cheap state schools.
Have mommy & daddy pay, or
Get a scholarship, or
Go out in the real world and work for a couple of years, or
Work part time and go to school part time.
I also suggest that people who prepay their loan 1k, have their principal balance
reduced 1k on a 1 time basis.
No 2nd mtg be allowed, unless there is still at least 25% in equity left.
And if this is a mommy or nanny state situtation, all that I can say is the last 7 years
have proven to my satisfaction that a mommy or nanny is needed.
What I don't understand is how so much commercial space sits empty. A local chain discount electronics store closed its store here in Orange CA ten years ago and the space is still empty! Somebody's paid a lot of taxes, and foregone a lot of rent. Why? I can't see any way that could make economic sense for the owners. It certainly makes no sense for the economy as a whole for businesses to close because of excessive rents while space sits empty.
I know virtually nothing about tax law. I am a tax moron. One semester i made
Dean's List. 4 As and an F, the F being in tax. It made me so angry, I couldn't think
properly. The hub, who is awful in investing and such got an A. He said it was
just an algorithm, you just plugged the numbers in. I kept being concerned with the meaning
(or meaninglessness) of it all.
Wasted investment, and land-filled wealth. It would have been easier to just have dumped benjamins into the garbage.
Developers, jobs-and-tax-revenue driven city councils/zoning boards (and redevelopment agencies), bankers and wealthy 'investors'. They should be rounded up and made to deconstruct personally by hand the oozing sores they have inflicted on society. And then beheaded if they complain.
"And if this is a mommy or nanny state situtation, all that I can say is the last 7 years
have proven to my satisfaction that a mommy or nanny is needed."
~~~~
What we'll get is the dominatrix of debt ... lol !
"sm_landlord how hard is it to finance multi res and commercial now ? "
I can't really say for sure, because I haven't tried to finance anything recently. The areas where I would consider buying are still priced too high to make sense to me.
That said, I have heard that very large down payments are needed - like 35% to 50%.
When I was shopping for loans during the last big recession (early 1990s), you could not finance commercial property without a personal guarantee, which I would never give unless the money was practically free. I expect that the same is true today. It doesn't make sense to pay interest rates over the inflation rate unless the lender has some skin in the game.
sm, yup, westwood village is becoming a real ghosttown, too. i'm more curious about the "real" malls like the big century city one on santa monica, the westfield one on pico, etc. they seem almost totally full still.
Hi, LL! I have a new job and am very busy these days.
On debt - so you're proposing that people who can't legally drink shouldn't be able to sell themselves into debt slavery? Not such a bad idea. I really don't understand how college ed has become so expensive though. It's not like the profs are making that much.
In terms of restricting equity cashout mortgage to leaving 25% in the house: since the current debacle has made it clear the taxpayer will have to cover bad loans, we'd better start with some sensible legal underwriting standards.
I think a big part of the CRE price explosion a few years back was tied directly to 'tax free exchanges' under IRC 1031.
The kicker was that you always had to buy something higher in price than what you were selling. Also, you couldn't take cash or 'boot' out of the deal without being taxed on that amount. So you would naturally want to rollover all the cash into the next down payment and finance the rest with debt.
This was the so-called 'smart' alternative to paying 15% LTCG tax and cashing out.
The pet store was really busy!! We bought some catnip and old feline hip vitamins,
but catz were being looked at & sold. There were some interesting squirrel/rodent looking
things, if we wanted to give the catz an especially interesting very short term plaything.
I know it doesn't make sense, but it happens a lot. I watched a guy with some industrial space here in Santa Monica hold out for five years trying to get more rent than his building was worth.
Another leading cause of this glut is that cities and counties would at least get a share of sales tax revenue
That has produced a huge excess of auto malls here in Socal. Every city - even dinky ones - tried to get one. Even before the auto market went Deep South there were too many. Their economics must be horrible now, both for their owners and the cities they're in.
I know it doesn't make sense, but it happens a lot. I watched a guy with some industrial space here in Santa Monica hold out for five years trying to get more rent than his building was worth.
The only ones I'm seeing do that these days are the ones who made a fortune in the past decade and can afford to sit.
The recently built or recently purchased owners who have to get a certain number in rent to cover debt are falling one by one.
By next year there should be some bargains available
Since malls are already social centers, it would be useful to convert them as neighborhood centers. Keep the food courts but no retail stores. Put in medical stuff, some senior ed
maybe even classrooms.
"[auto malls} Their economics must be horrible now, both for their owners and the cities they're in."
Given the enormous tax breaks that cities gave the auto malls, I'm not so sure about the impact.
In my town, there is a special, very low, corporate tax rate for auto dealers. They make up for it by levying heavy gross income rates on professionals. My chiropractor just moved out of town because the city wanted 6% of his gross income.
Has anybody calculated the number of jobs per square foot of retail space? I wonder if retail jobs have grown linearly with shopping space. It might be interesting to calculate how many excess retail jobs all that excess space generated.
If you want to see the data plotted, check the "Include Graphs Box" and then press "Go." For some reason, the link doesn't work when the graphs are included.
Bottom Line: A loss of 750,000 jobs in Retail Trade since 01/08.
1031 exchanges have been around for a long time - I did one in 1980 or so.
Something else has to explain the ups and downs in CRE, and I think it's mostly the cost of money and the expectation for appreciation.
Yes and no. 1031s began a long time ago (the 1930s ?), but court decisions expanded the impact of the section during the last boom with expanding the definition of 'like kind' and allowing non-simultaneous (Starker) exchanges and so on.
The 'something else' that explains the most recent boom, I would say, is simple greed which is my sarcastic version of 'expectation for appreciation.'
One of serious problems the 1031s caused is that the incentive was always to find a target property with a higher price than the property you were selling.
We have laws that make it suicidal for responsible men to marry or have kids.
Sounds like somebody had a messy divorce. Genuinely sorry to hear it - those look like real horrors. It's probably a good thing I was too shallow to want to get married.
My chiropractor just moved out of town because the city wanted 6% of his gross income.
Holy cow on that one.
Since malls are already social centers, it would be useful to convert them as neighborhood centers. Keep the food courts but no retail stores. Put in medical stuff, some senior ed maybe even classrooms.
That's a pretty good idea. Malls are often foci for what public transport is available in the suburbs. Government offices could go there as well. The Santa Ana DMV could sure use some more space. I think some retail could be usefully folded in.
I have never married either, but I have seen many others go through hell..
I prefer escorts over relationships.. much more honest and far fewer complications.
//Sounds like somebody had a messy divorce. Genuinely sorry to hear it - those look like real horrors. It's probably a good thing I was too shallow to want to get married.//
sportsfan;
"One of serious problems the 1031s caused is that the incentive was always to find a target property with a higher price than the property you were selling."
I don't really see that as a problem. First of all, you can just as easily use a 1031 to move from a large property into a number of smaller properties, and for some, that makes sense. Second, unless you are the Donald, you can always find a more expensive property by just buying something with more value - you don't have to over-pay, you just have to increase your leverage. At least, that's usually the goal - to control more value with the same invested dollars. If you've been in the business for a while (and you're not a dope), your loans get paid down. So if you're inclined to maintain the same amount of leverage, you trade up.
. . .you don't have to over-pay, you just have to increase your leverage.. . . .
sm_landlord, I don't disagree with anything you said. I'm quoting the 'increased leverage' part of your comment to emphasize that some people used 1031 exchanges in a stupid manner and ended up overextended or unable to pay down debt when the music stopped.
I don't have any problem with Section 1031 itself. It actually makes sense. I just think it contributed to the crazy spiral upwards in prices for commercial and industrial space.
"What I don't understand is how so much commercial space sits empty. A local chain discount electronics store closed its store here in Orange CA ten years ago and the space is still empty! Somebody's paid a lot of taxes, and foregone a lot of rent. Why? I can't see any way that could make economic sense for the owners. It certainly makes no sense for the economy as a whole for businesses to close because of excessive rents while space sits empty."
The wife worked in commercial real estate leasing for Bank of America many years ago, and can't remember the name of the tax break; but if you're in the right situation, it can be very advantageous to keep a property vacant for a long period of time unless you get just the rent you want. So she says. BofA did it all the time.
Lucifer, without my marriage, I wouldn't have two of the greatest kids in the world.
You are certainly free to avoid things like spouses and children, but I don't think you'll convince anyone to make those choices that hasn't already made those choices.
The wife worked in commercial real estate leasing for Bank of America many years ago, and can't remember the name of the tax break; but if you're in the right situation, it can be very advantageous to keep a property vacant for a long period of time unless you get just the rent you want. So she says. BofA did it all the time.
The wife worked in commercial real estate leasing for Bank of America many years ago, and can't remember the name of the tax break; but if you're in the right situation, it can be very advantageous to keep a property vacant for a long period of time unless you get just the rent you want. So she says. BofA did it all the time.
That's a tax break that should go, pronto.
~~~~
If they rent it for cheaper they have to value the whole building cheaper ... mark to market ...
"Since malls are already social centers, it would be useful to convert them as neighborhood centers. Keep the food courts but no retail stores. Put in medical stuff, some senior ed
maybe even classrooms. "
Malls, especially enclosed ones, are a private, controllable version of "downtown" that avoid the obligations of being a truly public space. It would be interesting to see some of them become truly public spaces after all. Police station, library, some restaurants, performing arts, adult school; make a nice combination.
"I don't have any problem with Section 1031 itself. It actually makes sense. I just think it contributed to the crazy spiral upwards in prices for commercial and industrial space."
Certainly it provided a mechanism for people to do stupid things.
1031s also make it easier to conduct certain types of fraud. I've heard stories of third parties making off with the money before the deal could close.
There's plenty of cash on the sidelines ... it's actually the big deals that go for cash ....
LOL. Not to anyone I know.
Big and small are all relative to what is possible.
~~~~
I looked into Ins Co. financing ... they start at 10mil ...but this was 10-12 years ago ...
When you get to 100 units or higher grade CRE the big boys come in ...
I've heard stories of third parties making off with the money before the deal could close.
Those stories are real. The 1031 requires an Accomodator to hold the sales proceeds until the upleg closes.
I've read stories from both California and Oregon on Accomodators who disappeared or otherwise couldn't return the funds deposited with them. Apparently there was at least one in Colorado (ht Google):
A marriage can be the best or worst thing that can happen to a person. Choose wisely or not at all. It's not for everybody. For me, the best thing that ever happened. YMMV.
Bob Dobbs;
"Malls, especially enclosed ones, are a private, controllable version of "downtown" that avoid the obligations of being a truly public space. It would be interesting to see some of them become truly public spaces after all. Police station, library, some restaurants, performing arts, adult school; make a nice combination."
The obligations of being a public space include accepting panhandlers, nutty proselytizers, and people camping on any horizontal surface. I used to have offices in free-standing buildings, but got tired of having to ask the bums to stop blocking the doorways so that I could leave the building at night. At an office in Hollywood, we had to deal with transvestites hooking on the sidewalk out front. Now I prefer to stay away from public spaces, especially in places like urban parts of California that attract nuisances.
"I can see that you really are from Santa Monica."
Oh, I've got stories. One day I drove to my office and found that a tent city had been constructed in my parking lot. The planters outside the building were used as toilet stalls on a daily basis. I could go on, but I would prefer to forget much of that.
Wow, i am still logged in even though the computer was shutdown several times since I logged into the comments system yesterday. Is this a bug or a feature?
Even with all the empty retail space, commercial rents still remain high here in the mid willamette valley.
Lucifer -
I'm always looking for my next ex-wife, just not in a rush.
Finally finished with my sleep deprivation days, now it is time to catch up on things.
Take back the trillions of $$$ given to the banks, who just sit on it and make it totally ineffective then start government incentive to create realistic industries that give employment and generate real productive income, some of which would hopefully be from exports.
Every other country, especially China and most of Europe have goverment incentives to protect it's industries. No matter what you call it it's a form of protectionism and its inevitable. We should stop being naive and take care of our own house. The only ones who win if we don't are the multinational corporations who don't care where they get their hand out.
I live in Jacksonville, FL, and the community college here has one of its branch locations at a facility that was built to be a mall, though a small one. The community college has had the entire building for quite some time.
If they rent it for cheaper they have to value the whole building cheaper ... mark to market ...
Charming. If so the wastage mostly about kicking the can down the road on bad loans. The bank presumably stand for it because they know they'll get bailed out.
I'm retired, single, renter, and have some investment cash. I've been paring down the 'lifetime junk' (imaginary goal of living in a SUV while traveling the country). I feel pretty free
Funny thing, last singles bar I went to--a single friend dragged me--before Hurricane
Andrew, I could've picked someone up, but not my single friend. Got to talking about name
searches and how lien name search engines couldn't tell a boy from a girl and
the guy was actually invoved in that. He was charmed. I went home to the hub after
a coupla drinks. My friend went home with nobody.
"The obligations of being a public space include accepting panhandlers, nutty proselytizers, and people camping on any horizontal surface. I used to have offices in free-standing buildings, but got tired of having to ask the bums to stop blocking the doorways so that I could leave the building at night. At an office in Hollywood, we had to deal with transvestites hooking on the sidewalk out front. Now I prefer to stay away from public spaces, especially in places like urban parts of California that attract nuisances."
Believe me, I understand completely. Completely. Downtown Santa Cruz is in many ways a small version of downtown Santa Monica (particularly Santa Monica's pedestrian mall area, which I have visited in the past year). After the '89 quake, the redo of downtown SC was modeled in part on Santa Monica's.
We have coped at least partially locally with 1) a squad of "hosts" funded by the Downtown Association who patrol, identify potential trouble, try to defuse it if possible but also work hand in glove with the cop; 2) a new law that identifies that X number of unpaid civic violation tickets becomes a misdemeanor (including lying on the sidewalk or sleeping in public) which can land your ass in actual jail, and will (the judges and county jail are on board); 3) regs which limit where you can and can't panhandle (and the regulars truly know).\
This hasn't made downtown G-rated by any means, and there are plenty of people who say "they'll never go back there." But business gets done without hassle and it remains the prime entertainment/upscale retail space for 30 miles. When the street fills up, the crazies essentially get lost in the crowd.
What is clear is that any public space that isn't used and has advantages (concealed sleeping, central location for drug dealing) will be coopted by crazies (and often by dealers who use them as cover). Any mall used as a public space would need a mix of uses that would keep a good mix of people there all throughout open hours -- school for day and evening, performing arts for evening, restaurants all the time, and of course cops being right there and hanging out in the restaurants.
It may be an idealistic view, and an unrealizable one, but it is most definitely informed by the kind of problems you're talking about.
Here's an odd one for you. After the Northridge quake, an apartment owner nearby, whose building was red-tagged, just let it sit unoccupied. For ten years. Why?
Because the building was rent-controlled. After 10 years (+/-) the former tenants no longer had a claim on the apartments that they used to occupy. Once the time had expired, the owner repaired the building and rented it out at market. I doubt that he came out ahead on the deal, but he certainly has a much more valuable property now.
An here I am in Montreal going to the massive underground shopping mall with its 29km of passages tomorrow morning. Some 2000 storefronts. Maybe it isn't contained the the US.
Bob Dobbs:
"We have coped at least partially locally with..."
You must have a functional city council in Santa Cruz.
Santa Monica does not, unless you count waging drawn-out battles over hedge heights, granny flats, and children's tree houses as functional.
One time I saw a guy crumpled in a heap in the staircase of a parking structure in downtown near the Promenade. So I called 911 to report a man down. The 911 operator berated me for wasting her time, claiming that it was just a bum sleeping it off. How she thought she knew, I don't know, unless she had already gotten multiple calls on the same body in the staircase.
the fact that any landlord ever has real motivation to leave a place empty is a sign of the fact that we're NOT a market economy. not even close. i suppose much of this is the business version of the cycle of nature - big corporation/REIT becomes big to the point where they're more interested in the illusion of a valuable portfolio than actual income - they go bust, and the properties return to scrappier entities actually interested in using the resource... too bad demographics and bonehead policies don't let the forest burn.
in any case, to my knowledge, depreciation only helps you to the degree which you have income to write it off against.
"But actually, he thought as he readjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connection with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connection that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version. A great deal of time you were expected to make them up out of your head."
Spent some time looking at Redfin today. Damn, people are delusional. What's with listing a property, it not selling, and then RAISING the price? Have seen several like that. Also seeing listings start at higher than bubble prices. Has the NAR been passing out Kool-Aid again?
The original Oxnard Home Depot location has been empty for a decade or more. Why? Because of ill negotiated tax breaks as long as it isn't repurposed and the fact that it keeps any potential competition just that much further away. As HH notes, both distinctly anti-market forces at work.
I'm told that the flashbacks can last for years. Once the Kool-Aid has burned those little pinholes in the cognitive centers of your brain, delusion becomes a way of life.
In downtown Santa Cruz, "man down" gets a police visit, followed if necessary by an ambulance.
As for having a "functional city council" here, many would disagree. But downtown is important to a lot of a lot of people here, and city council spends a lot of time addressing detailed downtown issues f behavior and such that would probably be considered too small time even for the SM council -- whole evenings, sometimes. And that can happen because we're 55K or less -- definitely less when the students go home.
really apples to oranges - if santa cruz was part of santa clara county and the mountains between it and san jose didn't exist, they would be similar cities. but it isn't, they do, and they aren't.
"Yes, that's the year I graduated, man I wish he had titled it 1985."
There were some stupid, complacent remarks in 1984 about how Orwell's predictions hadn't come through, as if the year was the important part of the prophecy.
Orwell's real name was Eric Blair, and he's one atheist I hold in sincere admiration.
even 1984 was bit early as a date for his predictions - winston's job was the creation of internet pornography, and artsem has come a long way since then....
That's more or less what I meant to say -- SC is a geographically isolated college town of modest size. SM is essentially an integrated neighborhood of the LA metro area. The downtowns may have similarities in how they're laid out and used, but the other factors come into play in helping Santa Cruz get a handle on issues that SM can't.
For my original mall-to-public space rant, I could definitely see it working in smaller cities and burbs, not so much in densely populated metro cores. But even there it can be apples/oranges, because San Jose / Santa Clara do not equal LA.
those are the main differences. others include the fact that UCSC is a decent school located in the most beautiful location in the world, wheras SMC is a festering parody of a bad high school. but the poor folks next to the ten near virginia park and the new money west of Brentwood are united in at least one regard - a total lack of class.
Sorry to cut in on mall space post but Americans should be more clued into significant world events rather than buying more stuff for their bloated selves
Not really, i think the umployment is the second or 3rd highest in the country. i'd like to rent a small office in the low hundreds. But landlords are still in denial i think. You know how everyone thinks their own town is special....
All this doom and gloom, I have the next couple of days off, I got a Chimay Blue clone in the mash, inverting some sugar into amber rock candy.
Life is good, had to say that.
I also had a long talk with a co-worker who bought at the top of the bubble here and is already 100K down, and I don't think she was happy when I showed her some of the charts on this site and pointed out that we are only in the early stages here and everyone is still in denial. (Its not just a river in Egypt.)
mmckinl (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 3:42 pm
km4
thanks for the post ... Iran looks to be a new unknown ...
And hopefully this 'new unknown' is NOT along the lines of Donald Rumsfeld's “Foot-in-Mouth” award-winning quote:
“Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones. And so people who have the omniscience that they can say with high certainty that something has not happened or is not being tried have capabilities that are [beyond mine].”
Home Shopping Network is still broadcasting in analog. Wonder if their sales have gone up, now they and the Spanish-speaking evangelicals are the only game in town for the un-converted.
The whole idea of targeted tax breaks is extremely dubious. Allowing them is like getting down on your knees and begging for corruption. HH is right that the frequency of this kind of thing shows we're not in a "free market" situation in CRE.
I wonder what adding loans on these unused spaces to the "bum loan" category would do to bank balance sheets?
Chavez Questions Patents, May Replicate Tetra Pak Technology
“What are patents? That’s universal knowledge. We don’t have to be subject to capitalist laws.” - Hugo Chavez
"Iran may well be a triggering event, one way or the other."
The conflict there seems to be the Bazaar and the university elite against other parts of Iranian society. Don't know too much about the country, though. Where the RG comes down is probably decisive, and I haven't read that they're displeased by the result of the election.
I wonder what the utility bills are on a big mall... need janitorial service too.... Cost of operating? Anybody have any idea? Especially all the air conditioning in the summer, or heat in the winter up north...
Patents are troublesome. Enforcement of a patent right is government intervention in the marketplace. The government picks a winner and licenses its monopoly. The free market can't protect innovation, the argument runs. They are protected by the Constitution , but why should Venezuela trust our market meddling system? How does Congress know the most efficient duration for patents? Are they Central Planners?
As has been frequently noted, we are experiencing the effects of "late-stage capitalism", where tax-breaks reap better rewards than actual productivity, and losses (expenses) actually result in gains (writeoffs).
Imagine the entrepreneurial growth that might occur if space for it were affordable. Yet, who is willing to provide such space, even when so much sits empty, when it appears more profitable to keep it empty?
To the great growth industries of America such as health care and home building add one more: influence peddling.
The number of registered lobbyists in Washington has more than doubled since 2000 to more than 34,750 while the amount that lobbyists charge their new clients has increased by as much as 100 percent. Only a few other businesses have enjoyed greater prosperity in an otherwise fitful economy.
Well I don't know whether barfly is ignoring me or not, but when I moved, it was
to a much nicer building in a bigger space, right next door to my old space so
clients could find me, and the leasing agent asked me not to say to anybody
else how much i was paying. Roughly 20 bucks a month more. So rents are
falling a lot. I do think that these nutso arrangements are relatively rare.
I knew there were too damn many malls 15 years ago, when times were better.
You couldn't throw a stone in SoCal without hitting a Walmart, CostCo, Macy's or some Dollar Store.
Someone above said we don't need more malls to buy worthless junk to stuff into our bloated selves.
Truer words were never spoken.
I was actually walking through the mall today on my way to get an (overpriced) haircut. Every store I passed, it could go away FOREVER tomorrow and we would not be worse off.
People waste more money on JUNK they do not need...THAT'S where this problem started and THAT'S where the change needs to happen FIRST.
Then we can fix things.
But.....people in this country are so damn lazy and apathetic. They just want something for nothing.
re:patents - why is it a drug goes into the public domain just a decade after release, while a song stays in private hands for a full century? guess we need to ask the ghost of sonny bono, ira gershwin's wife and steamboat willie...
I'm teasing the ideologues, Liz. It's all in the details.
But if the free market can't produce the desired amount of innovation without regulation, or enough investment without guarantees like limited liability and cut-rate capital gains tax, what is so great about it again, as economic system?
My pet peeve is the governmental regulation of the number of new doctors allowed to practice in America. Foreign and domestic medical graduates must train in US hospitals. These teaching hospitals are heavily subsidized by Medicare and the VA. Congress, thereby, limits the funds for teaching hospitals and hence the number of new doctors allowed to practice here. It's a market tightly controlled by medical lobbyists (AMA) and their Congressional lackeys.
People complain about drugs being so expensive (Disclosure: I work for a drug company) and they say we milk our patent protection to the last dime and it should be gotten rid of.
Those people have no idea now many failures it takes to actually make a drug and have it get to market. You have to recoup the loss at some point.
Otherwise...no one will bother making new drugs and then don't come cry to me when you get the new penicillin resistant E Coli
i would never accuse Rx companies for being anti competitive.
The issure is that they are not spending their money on Ecoli drugs they spend it on lifestyle drugs so they can get steady revenue streams. Nothing against that.
Saying if we don't buy name brand Rx's and support the Rx companies we will endanger public health is a form of extortion... IMO only of course
A patent is a grant of exclusion conferred by the sovereign. So of course, US patent laws can't extend to Venezuela without Venezuela's consent (e.g. WIPO). Of course, if Chavez wants to ignore US patent laws as his right, then the Swiss should be able to ignore US tax laws under the same principle...
Otherwise...no one will bother making new drugs and then don't come cry to me when you get the new penicillin resistant E Coli
of course, there was no innovation in the biosciences before Chkrabarty. And there was no business innovation prior to State Street. Interestingly, some companies prefer protection under trade secret, as it's potentially infinite duration, as opposed to the 20 years of a patent.
I agree with the idea that the laws are bad but its more economic than anything else. Its just not possible to raise a child on just a high school education and one worker like it used to be. This is bound to have an effect
Still population decline is the norm in an urban society. In the past it was disease kills, rural folk replace. In modern days its cost, children are a liability. No amount of social twiddling (short of tyrannical measures) can change this. Societies that have baby booms such as US in the 60's and current day Iran become unstable anyway. Less is more
Now the US gets around this some (even with all our religiosity we don't hit replacement) with suburbs and massive imports from poor countries with higher natality but this isn't healthy or sustainable. Its slow motion socioeconomic suicide
Frankly speaking the US could lose 60%-80% of its population over time (this would still leave us 2-4 more populace than Canada) and not decline a bit
Also as for "senior centric" policy -- you have a choice -- pension or growth -- without a pension scheme people tend to high frugality (say 25-25% savings rate) and without export markets this means deflation -- Japan gets around this by dumping on us but if we were minding the show and making it here/selling it here/buying it here/export the rest like we should japan would be SOL
Less on lawyers
Less on marketing (a legitimate drug that wor;s should sell itself with test results.)
Less on financing
Less on dividends
Less on secrecy (share all scientific data)
No problem funding innovation. I'll throw in for those bonuses myself.
On the marriage question up thread, I have very mixed feelings. I went through a very nasty divorce, and do not miss being with her at all, however I do miss my kids and w/o the marriage they would not exist. Still the general idea of equal protection under the law is a complete and total farce when it comes to family courts. Women may still have some disadvantages in the workplace, but they pale comparied to the difficulties guys have in divorce courts. As such, I hope my duaghter gets married and has kids, and my sons stay single for life.
O/T, but it might provoke some discussion, link to average IQ of college kids by intended major. Journalism is an interesting entry. Gross financial fraud, larceny and misappropriation doesn't seem to have a separate course, irrespective of the expertise shown later in life by so many.
Tim WF 2012 wrote, "The issue is that they are not spending their money on Ecoli drugs they spend it on lifestyle drugs so they can get steady revenue streams. Nothing against that"
At least at my company, that is not true. We specialize in HIV and hepatitis drugs. I would not lump those in with Viagra by any means.
The remainder of our business is taken up with : Alzheimer's, Heart meds, Parkinsons as well as some pet medications.
LL, yeah, not sure when it goes off patient, but when it does, they should shift it over to being an OTC drug at much cheaper levels. Life is going to be hard as we get old, at least we should be able to have to good parts stay hard.
Which one, zero, classic, new?
I can make a good ginger ale, beers, meads, and wine but not coke.
It's bad enough the neighbours think I'm cooking ice.
Not 100% BT. Tax cheating is criminal. Criminal law brings up such different issues that the systems are traditionally bifurcated. If Venezuela allows free competition, it stays in Venezuela (disregarding internet for now). But if Switzerland harbors tax cheaters' money, that interferes with the administration of laws within the US. Not a bright line, but distinguishable.
I like mead and I like ginger ale. In Balto they used to have "golden ginger ale", which was
extra gingery. I find if I squeeze some ginger juice out of ginger root and add it to regular
ginger ale just a few drops improves the flavor vastly. I seldom buy sodas, 'cause they are sweetened with high fructose corn syrop. The ginger ales in the health food store are
made with sugar, but they are TOO gingery.
yogi: if you're talking about blatant tax cheating, then I agree. From my very limited experience, most tax "evasion" is simply well-heeled individuals taking advantages of loopholes, shelters, etc to violate the spirit, but not the letter, of the law.
“A fight is brewing over whether and how much national banks and thrifts must comply with state laws designed to delay or prevent foreclosures. Unlike consumer protection laws, state foreclosure and real estate property laws generally are not preempted. But if such a law affects the substance of a loan — or interferes with the bank's ability to collect a debt… It is likely to start a… war over preemption… Industry representatives said they are largely willing to accept a brief delay in foreclosures, since a limited 30-day stay would be hard to challenge legally, though indefinitely delaying foreclosures or banning them altogether would be unacceptable.”
6 oz sugar, I use normal or brown.
2-4 oz grated ginger
Half cup water.
Heat to a boil, cover, let rest for an hour - strain put into 2 litre soda bottle,
2 tsp lemon juice.
1/8 tsp yeast bread yeast, (I use ale yeast because that's what I have.
Fill to the curve of the bottle, let it sit out for two days.
When it is really hard like a normal soda bottle, put it in the fridge and pour a glass whenever you want. Adjust to your taste.
From my very limited experience, most tax "evasion" is simply well-heeled individuals taking advantages of loopholes, shelters, etc to violate the spirit, but not the letter, of the law.
I need me some of those, when I do my taxs it is, no, no, no, no, I'm surprised Turbo tax doesn't cry for me.
There is a difference between tax avoidance and tax cheating... The congress passes a lot of tax policy laws that are really social engineering, and it is intended to influence the citizen's decisions... Offering tax incentives is one of those things... i.e. there would not be as much rental housing without depreciation... The thing that the govt does not understand is when they meddle in the markets, they become part of the market, and then the populace may react in unanticipated ways... Our goal as taxpayers is always to pay as little as possible - so you have Bill Clinton deducting $3 for a pair of used underwear - a charitable donation... Tax cheating would be something like not paying your self employment tax at all, and then blaming it on Turbo Tax... Or conveniently forgetting about the income from your rental in the Dominican Republic... Or that cash you stuffed into your bra, or that you had wrapped in tinfoil in your freezer... That is tax cheating, and deserves a jail sentence...
I recently went to a mall in Arlington TX and noticed that half the mall was empty. Kind of depressing; but a thought came to me that triggered some hope. Many senior citizens like to exercise in the mornings by walking in malls. Malls are safe, climate controlled and provide active interaction with people of all ages. Seniors also like self service-cafeteria style food which is a readily available in mall food courts. I then thought it could be a good idea to turn the empty half of the mall into senior apartments, maybe 400-500 sf each, 1 mall bedroom + bathroom and a small kitchenette, 1-2 person occupancy. Since the parking needs for retail space compared to senior housing are typically 10-1, the large parking lot on the senior apartment side of the mall could be turned into green space with a putting green, fountains, sitting areas, lawn bowling, etc. Inside the mall, a health care center with physical therapy/exercise could be added. The health care center could also be used by the mall's regular customers. This could partly solve the excess mall space and provide seniors with active living. Gov't subsidies already exist for senior housing, so the money is out there. Finally, malls are a lot less depressing than some of the senior housing out there and the family could make the mall an outing with two purposes. Shop and see the grand parents. Anybody have thoughts on this idea.
There is at lease one 3 or 4 story building in Hialeah, which is shops and offices on the first floor and appartments on the rest. Bottom like a strip mall. No greenery tho; it was planned the
way it is.
Bankerdome?
say it isn't so!
Malls, large retail spaces and office buildings could be converted to bankerdomes.
Enjoy your enlightenment , Gary.
I have a pool appointment.
googled this
"Clinton's record promoted as having generated a surplus. It never happened. There was never a surplus and the facts support that position. In fact, far from a $360 billion reduction in the national debt in FY1998-FY2000, there was an increase of $281 billion."
Well, I dunno, malls serve the same purposes in the US as churches and the village green do elsewhere, as well as other purposes.
Our mall had a home improvement exhibit this weekend with ignored, unhappy looking
contractors sitting around cheap tables.
Does that include strip malls ?
I've seen dozens of those things pop up over the last several years ...
At this point we would all be thrilled with a mere 261b deficit!
Note that the article above stated there were 20 square feet of retail space per person in shopping centers in 2003 - and that was before the more recent building boom.
Has anybody calculated the number of jobs per square foot of retail space? I wonder if retail jobs have grown linearly with shopping space. It might be interesting to calculate how many excess retail jobs all that excess space generated.
I think for the last 40 years there has been too much mall space and not enough downtown space and neighborhoods that were not suburbs and exurbs. It is happening here in Greece now but behind the curve that I lived in there. Sorry to be so curmudgeonly retrograde, but we used to ride our bikes, hang out at the summer programs the village provided and just play as long as our parents would let us. A big treat was having money for soft drinks for the crew--once a week if we were lucky, but that is Happy Days.
I have some ideas on using those spaces.
//Does that include strip malls ?//
Lots of half empty strip malls in Merritt Island. Not so much in Miami, except the
new ones. Lots of tile places etc recently empty.
Very sad.
That is what most eurotrash and euroworshippers do not understand.
//Has anybody calculated the number of jobs per square foot of retail space?//
Sounds like my girlhood in Baltimore. Possibilities long gone.
Not so much downtown, which was special, but lots of small stores, parks, librarys, school playground etc, to bike to.
I wonder how "prestige" location malls - georgetown, century city, etc - are doing in this climate, i.e., whether or not they mirror the nearby residential trend
A lot of the blame for overbuilding goes to the tax laws ...
My accountant tried to get me into new strip malls, shopping centers when I sold
my apartments ... big dividends, no taxes as it was an exchange ...
I'm glad I was too chicken ... I saw the off ramp to the rat race and took it ...
Good for you, Mmck.
HollywoodHack;
I never go to that sort of mall, but I do have to travel through the Montana Ave shopping district occasionally. And it looks like it's getting hammered - there must be 20 vacant stores in 10 blocks.
Most of those stores had no reason to exist in the first place, but still, it's a noticeable decline. Vacant stores were a rarity only a year ago.
lawyerliz
You must know a little about tax law ...
My major in College was accounting but I never practiced ...
I could never reconcile trying to be "conservative" with what
the industry was doing ... Enron was an example ...
mmckinl;
I don't know when you sold your apartments, but it was a smart move staying away from commercial. I learned my lesson the hard way in the 1980's when the Reagan tax changes wiped out the last strip mall boom.
So we have lots of space for creative reuse as the price per square foot plummets.
Big deal. The world is not collapsing into a Kunstleresque apocalypse.
Now, like Krugman worries, we will have a lost decade (okay, maybe 8 years, depending on where you start), but what are you going to do about it?
I postulate that we will see waves of inflation and deflation, and only as the rest of the world recovers and takes up our slack will inflation really take off.
We will see much more stimulus as the economy fails to grow, and even dips falling periodically.
I don't see much real happiness for the constant growth crowd until we have demographic growth in young people. Japan has not encouraged demographic growth through social policy, instead they have coddled the elderly and middle aged, thus failing inflation.
Someday this war's gonna end...
We have laws that make it suicidal for responsible men to marry or have kids.
//I don't see much real happiness for the constant growth crowd until we have demographic growth in young people. Japan has not encouraged demographic growth through social policy, instead they have coddled the elderly and middle aged, thus failing inflation.//
sm_landlord
Sold between 2004-07 ...
sm_landlord how hard is it to finance multi res and commercial now ?
can't be easy ... back then financing was a breeze ...
Some one asked about my schemes. I think if they were attended to homes would go up in price far more slowly, more debt would successfully be repaid, big profits would be lessened, young men would be very frustrated (tough), fewer economically-- Darwinian-ly challenged persons would be eliminated. (bad?). The riches pyramid would be flattened.
By the way, i propose that nobody under 20 should be allowed to take out total student loans of
over $5000. They would have to--
Go to Jr college or cheap state schools.
Have mommy & daddy pay, or
Get a scholarship, or
Go out in the real world and work for a couple of years, or
Work part time and go to school part time.
I also suggest that people who prepay their loan 1k, have their principal balance
reduced 1k on a 1 time basis.
No 2nd mtg be allowed, unless there is still at least 25% in equity left.
And if this is a mommy or nanny state situtation, all that I can say is the last 7 years
have proven to my satisfaction that a mommy or nanny is needed.
"Now, like Krugman worries, we will have a lost decade (okay, maybe 8 years, depending on where you start), but what are you going to do about it?"
~~~~
We've been heading in the wrong direction for almost 30 years ... Reaganomics a la Greenspan ...
Outsourcing, financialization, debt, debt, debt ...
What I don't understand is how so much commercial space sits empty. A local chain discount electronics store closed its store here in Orange CA ten years ago and the space is still empty! Somebody's paid a lot of taxes, and foregone a lot of rent. Why? I can't see any way that could make economic sense for the owners. It certainly makes no sense for the economy as a whole for businesses to close because of excessive rents while space sits empty.
Why should anyone have to take out a student loan?
I know virtually nothing about tax law. I am a tax moron. One semester i made
Dean's List. 4 As and an F, the F being in tax. It made me so angry, I couldn't think
properly. The hub, who is awful in investing and such got an A. He said it was
just an algorithm, you just plugged the numbers in. I kept being concerned with the meaning
(or meaninglessness) of it all.
Wasted investment, and land-filled wealth. It would have been easier to just have dumped benjamins into the garbage.
Developers, jobs-and-tax-revenue driven city councils/zoning boards (and redevelopment agencies), bankers and wealthy 'investors'. They should be rounded up and made to deconstruct personally by hand the oozing sores they have inflicted on society. And then beheaded if they complain.
duplicate deleted
"And if this is a mommy or nanny state situtation, all that I can say is the last 7 years
have proven to my satisfaction that a mommy or nanny is needed."
~~~~
What we'll get is the dominatrix of debt ... lol !
Well, I never did; the hub never did; the daughter didn't til grad school; the son only 2k
in undergrad, so I don't know.
Fair!!! Happy to see you back.
"sm_landlord how hard is it to finance multi res and commercial now ? "
I can't really say for sure, because I haven't tried to finance anything recently. The areas where I would consider buying are still priced too high to make sense to me.
That said, I have heard that very large down payments are needed - like 35% to 50%.
When I was shopping for loans during the last big recession (early 1990s), you could not finance commercial property without a personal guarantee, which I would never give unless the money was practically free. I expect that the same is true today. It doesn't make sense to pay interest rates over the inflation rate unless the lender has some skin in the game.
Another leading cause of this glut is that cities and counties
would at least get a share of sales tax revenue, property tax
so zoning boards and planning agencies were more than happy
to let loose the developers on mall development ...
Are you saying that I am the dominatrix of debt???
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
I don't think you could get a cre loan if you offered your soul as security,
as well as every asset you owned, in Miami-Dade County today.
sm, yup, westwood village is becoming a real ghosttown, too. i'm more curious about the "real" malls like the big century city one on santa monica, the westfield one on pico, etc. they seem almost totally full still.
lawyerliz
Are you saying that I am the dominatrix of debt???
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
~~~
Didn't mean it personally ... but if you like it ... use it !
I meant that for the situation going forward ...
Kahuna speaks much of the evils of debt ... I concur wholeheartedly ...
Hi, LL! I have a new job and am very busy these days.
On debt - so you're proposing that people who can't legally drink shouldn't be able to sell themselves into debt slavery? Not such a bad idea. I really don't understand how college ed has become so expensive though. It's not like the profs are making that much.
In terms of restricting equity cashout mortgage to leaving 25% in the house: since the current debacle has made it clear the taxpayer will have to cover bad loans, we'd better start with some sensible legal underwriting standards.
"It's not like the profs are making that much."
no, but the admins are, and often getting super-sweetheart retirement deals, especially in the UC system.
I think a big part of the CRE price explosion a few years back was tied directly to 'tax free exchanges' under IRC 1031.
The kicker was that you always had to buy something higher in price than what you were selling. Also, you couldn't take cash or 'boot' out of the deal without being taxed on that amount. So you would naturally want to rollover all the cash into the next down payment and finance the rest with debt.
This was the so-called 'smart' alternative to paying 15% LTCG tax and cashing out.
The one on Merritt Island is virtually full too.
The pet store was really busy!! We bought some catnip and old feline hip vitamins,
but catz were being looked at & sold. There were some interesting squirrel/rodent looking
things, if we wanted to give the catz an especially interesting very short term plaything.
Fair Economist;
I know it doesn't make sense, but it happens a lot. I watched a guy with some industrial space here in Santa Monica hold out for five years trying to get more rent than his building was worth.
I just scratch my head and move on.
Hmmmm...
//I don't think you could get a cre loan if you offered your soul as security//
lawyerliz wrote: " Are you saying that I am the dominatrix of debt???"
//
bet you look cute in the outfit
"Hey, honey, does this latex make my butt look big?"
Nooo, you could pay something equal. Or, less, but you would have to
pay taxes on what you didn't spend. Not such a bad deal.
I am the albatross of 1031 exchanges. My exchanges never ever go
thru.
Another leading cause of this glut is that cities and counties would at least get a share of sales tax revenue
That has produced a huge excess of auto malls here in Socal. Every city - even dinky ones - tried to get one. Even before the auto market went Deep South there were too many. Their economics must be horrible now, both for their owners and the cities they're in.
sportsfan wrote:
"I think a big part of the CRE price explosion a few years back was tied directly to 'tax free exchanges' under IRC 1031. "
1031 exchanges have been around for a long time - I did one in 1980 or so.
Something else has to explain the ups and downs in CRE, and I think it's mostly the cost of money and the expectation for appreciation.
Go for it, Luci!!!
CR - if you're there, "larger" is mising an "r"
Of course the housing bubble in the U.S. was much large than the mall bubble
(trying my best bacon dreamz impersonation)
I know it doesn't make sense, but it happens a lot. I watched a guy with some industrial space here in Santa Monica hold out for five years trying to get more rent than his building was worth.
The only ones I'm seeing do that these days are the ones who made a fortune in the past decade and can afford to sit.
The recently built or recently purchased owners who have to get a certain number in rent to cover debt are falling one by one.
By next year there should be some bargains available
sm_landlord
Trouble is overbuilding hurts everyone ...
Made my nut on the RE crash in Cali in the early 90s ...
$20 to $30 a square foot ....
Saw the dot com thing taking off ... don't see anything now ...
Since malls are already social centers, it would be useful to convert them as neighborhood centers. Keep the food courts but no retail stores. Put in medical stuff, some senior ed
maybe even classrooms.
"[auto malls} Their economics must be horrible now, both for their owners and the cities they're in."
Given the enormous tax breaks that cities gave the auto malls, I'm not so sure about the impact.
In my town, there is a special, very low, corporate tax rate for auto dealers. They make up for it by levying heavy gross income rates on professionals. My chiropractor just moved out of town because the city wanted 6% of his gross income.
On second thought, do these people have souls?
//Go for it, Luci!!!//
Has anybody calculated the number of jobs per square foot of retail space? I wonder if retail jobs have grown linearly with shopping space. It might be interesting to calculate how many excess retail jobs all that excess space generated.
I think this table answers my question.
If you want to see the data plotted, check the "Include Graphs Box" and then press "Go." For some reason, the link doesn't work when the graphs are included.
Bottom Line: A loss of 750,000 jobs in Retail Trade since 01/08.
"This was the so-called 'smart' alternative to paying 15% LTCG tax and cashing out."
~~~~
LOL If only ...
Alt Min tax, depreciation recapture, broker fees, city & county transfer taxes ...
Or, they might "walk away" from their souls!!
lawyerliz;
"Or, they might "walk away" from their souls!! "
Didn't we just see that movie on Wall Street?
hehehehehe
hahahahaha
"By next year there should be some bargains available"
~~~~
If you can get financing or have the cash ...
Many of my apartments were REO so the bank would finance ...
Some wouldn't ...
Banksters have souls?
//Or, they might "walk away" from their souls!!//
You tell me; you are the soul expert.
I am sure they aren't fresh, juicy souls.
And I complain about my teensy weensy occupational tax!
They are empty shells, mostly.
//I am sure they aren't fresh, juicy souls//
1031 exchanges have been around for a long time - I did one in 1980 or so.
Something else has to explain the ups and downs in CRE, and I think it's mostly the cost of money and the expectation for appreciation.
Yes and no. 1031s began a long time ago (the 1930s ?), but court decisions expanded the impact of the section during the last boom with expanding the definition of 'like kind' and allowing non-simultaneous (Starker) exchanges and so on.
The 'something else' that explains the most recent boom, I would say, is simple greed which is my sarcastic version of 'expectation for appreciation.'
One of serious problems the 1031s caused is that the incentive was always to find a target property with a higher price than the property you were selling.
I think I will go make some banana pudding.
We have laws that make it suicidal for responsible men to marry or have kids.
Sounds like somebody had a messy divorce. Genuinely sorry to hear it - those look like real horrors. It's probably a good thing I was too shallow to want to get married.
"I think I will go make some banana pudding."
~~~
Husband just get home ?
My chiropractor just moved out of town because the city wanted 6% of his gross income.
Holy cow on that one.
Since malls are already social centers, it would be useful to convert them as neighborhood centers. Keep the food courts but no retail stores. Put in medical stuff, some senior ed maybe even classrooms.
That's a pretty good idea. Malls are often foci for what public transport is available in the suburbs. Government offices could go there as well. The Santa Ana DMV could sure use some more space. I think some retail could be usefully folded in.
. . . REO so the bank would finance ...
That is precisely where I think the bargains will be.
Nope, I just want some banana pudding. He's been here playing
nintendo scrabble all day.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
"My chiropractor just moved out of town because the city wanted 6% of his gross income."
//
what state was that?
6% must be over 50% of GP
I have never married either, but I have seen many others go through hell..
I prefer escorts over relationships.. much more honest and far fewer complications.
//Sounds like somebody had a messy divorce. Genuinely sorry to hear it - those look like real horrors. It's probably a good thing I was too shallow to want to get married.//
Banks are not financing their own REOs, res or commercial.
See my continuing meme. By not doing so they are enabling the
downward spiral of prices that consumes them.
sportsfan;
"One of serious problems the 1031s caused is that the incentive was always to find a target property with a higher price than the property you were selling."
I don't really see that as a problem. First of all, you can just as easily use a 1031 to move from a large property into a number of smaller properties, and for some, that makes sense. Second, unless you are the Donald, you can always find a more expensive property by just buying something with more value - you don't have to over-pay, you just have to increase your leverage. At least, that's usually the goal - to control more value with the same invested dollars. If you've been in the business for a while (and you're not a dope), your loans get paid down. So if you're inclined to maintain the same amount of leverage, you trade up.
My son's divorce--she dumped him--was not messy, but very hellish. No
kids, hardly any assets, but still dreadful for him.
Banks are not financing their own REOs,
You haven't talked to the right banks yet.
Just kidding . . . we're 3000 miles apart.
Are they financing them on the left coast where you are?
And you wonder why I prefer escorts over relationships!
//My son's divorce--she dumped him--was not messy, but very hellish.//
liz wrote: " Banks are not financing their own REOs, res or commercial."
//
put your spoon down for just a sec
Do they say why they don't?
. . . REO so the bank would finance ...
That is precisely where I think the bargains will be.
~~~~
Depends on the haircut they take ...
The people with cash will get the best deal by far ...
We already see this with portfolios of homes being sold
rather than individual houses ...
You have a relationship with me, right here, right now.
Soul to soul, like the other souls posting.
And yeah, I want grandkids. He's over it I think. And well
shut of The Bitch.
. . .you don't have to over-pay, you just have to increase your leverage.. . . .
sm_landlord, I don't disagree with anything you said. I'm quoting the 'increased leverage' part of your comment to emphasize that some people used 1031 exchanges in a stupid manner and ended up overextended or unable to pay down debt when the music stopped.
I don't have any problem with Section 1031 itself. It actually makes sense. I just think it contributed to the crazy spiral upwards in prices for commercial and industrial space.
Nope; they just don't do it. There is no "they" there to do any
saying.
And I haven't got off here to make the pudding.
Can you imagine how nasty it will be the second time around (with kids)
//And yeah, I want grandkids. He's over it I think. //
Why should it be unsuccessful the 2nd time?
I intend to speak up loud and clear with a 2nd choice!
"What I don't understand is how so much commercial space sits empty. A local chain discount electronics store closed its store here in Orange CA ten years ago and the space is still empty! Somebody's paid a lot of taxes, and foregone a lot of rent. Why? I can't see any way that could make economic sense for the owners. It certainly makes no sense for the economy as a whole for businesses to close because of excessive rents while space sits empty."
The wife worked in commercial real estate leasing for Bank of America many years ago, and can't remember the name of the tax break; but if you're in the right situation, it can be very advantageous to keep a property vacant for a long period of time unless you get just the rent you want. So she says. BofA did it all the time.
It look like my chiro exaggerated his tax bill. Here is a link to the city business tax page:
http://www01.smgov.net/finance/licenses/pdf/feesum2page.pdf
The gross receipts tax ranges from $1.25 per thousand to $5.00 per thousand. He should have been paying $5.00/thousand, which is 0.5%.
lawyerliz,
It all boils down to a simple problem.
Women are not content with legal equality. They want it all.. greed.
Liz, it depends on the bank and on the package. Clearly cash provides the largest discount.
mmckinl, same thought. Cash gets the best deal, but some deals are too big for all cash.
Personally, I think 50/50 would be a good split on buyer/bank dollars in the deal.
Would you drive a car that had a 50% chance of blowing up and burning you?
//Why should it be unsuccessful the 2nd time?//
Lucifer, without my marriage, I wouldn't have two of the greatest kids in the world.
You are certainly free to avoid things like spouses and children, but I don't think you'll convince anyone to make those choices that hasn't already made those choices.
"mmckinl, same thought. Cash gets the best deal, but some deals are too big for all cash."
~~~~
There's plenty of cash on the sidelines ... it's actually the big deals that go for cash ....
The big boys don't want the smaller stuff, that's were a regular guy can make some dough.
The wife worked in commercial real estate leasing for Bank of America many years ago, and can't remember the name of the tax break; but if you're in the right situation, it can be very advantageous to keep a property vacant for a long period of time unless you get just the rent you want. So she says. BofA did it all the time.
That's a tax break that should go, pronto.
If it works for you.. great! But the risks are just too high and there are no real gains for men.
What is in it for me?
//Lucifer, without my marriage, I wouldn't have two of the greatest kids in the world.//
There's plenty of cash on the sidelines ... it's actually the big deals that go for cash ....
LOL. Not to anyone I know.
Big and small are all relative to what is possible.
Fair Economist
The wife worked in commercial real estate leasing for Bank of America many years ago, and can't remember the name of the tax break; but if you're in the right situation, it can be very advantageous to keep a property vacant for a long period of time unless you get just the rent you want. So she says. BofA did it all the time.
That's a tax break that should go, pronto.
~~~~
If they rent it for cheaper they have to value the whole building cheaper ... mark to market ...
"Since malls are already social centers, it would be useful to convert them as neighborhood centers. Keep the food courts but no retail stores. Put in medical stuff, some senior ed
maybe even classrooms. "
Malls, especially enclosed ones, are a private, controllable version of "downtown" that avoid the obligations of being a truly public space. It would be interesting to see some of them become truly public spaces after all. Police station, library, some restaurants, performing arts, adult school; make a nice combination.
"I don't have any problem with Section 1031 itself. It actually makes sense. I just think it contributed to the crazy spiral upwards in prices for commercial and industrial space."
Certainly it provided a mechanism for people to do stupid things.
1031s also make it easier to conduct certain types of fraud. I've heard stories of third parties making off with the money before the deal could close.
There's plenty of cash on the sidelines ... it's actually the big deals that go for cash ....
LOL. Not to anyone I know.
Big and small are all relative to what is possible.
~~~~
I looked into Ins Co. financing ... they start at 10mil ...but this was 10-12 years ago ...
When you get to 100 units or higher grade CRE the big boys come in ...
Trump doesn't own any 4 plexes in Brooklyn ...
I've heard stories of third parties making off with the money before the deal could close.
Those stories are real. The 1031 requires an Accomodator to hold the sales proceeds until the upleg closes.
I've read stories from both California and Oregon on Accomodators who disappeared or otherwise couldn't return the funds deposited with them. Apparently there was at least one in Colorado (ht Google):
1031articles - A Sad New Tale of 1031 Intermediary Theft
A marriage can be the best or worst thing that can happen to a person. Choose wisely or not at all. It's not for everybody. For me, the best thing that ever happened. YMMV.
mmckinl wrote: "If they rent it for cheaper they have to value the whole building cheaper ... mark to market ..."
//
how does that impact them as land lord? does this trigger an event that could lead to an unfortunate cascade?
My brother has been married for 22 years
I can't imagine doing it again
That's how it goes
Are we talking about CRE?
//"If they rent it for cheaper they have to value the whole building cheaper ... mark to market ..."//
and things could still go bad the next month.. next year.. next decade..
//My brother has been married for 22 years//
Bob Dobbs;
"Malls, especially enclosed ones, are a private, controllable version of "downtown" that avoid the obligations of being a truly public space. It would be interesting to see some of them become truly public spaces after all. Police station, library, some restaurants, performing arts, adult school; make a nice combination."
The obligations of being a public space include accepting panhandlers, nutty proselytizers, and people camping on any horizontal surface. I used to have offices in free-standing buildings, but got tired of having to ask the bums to stop blocking the doorways so that I could leave the building at night. At an office in Hollywood, we had to deal with transvestites hooking on the sidewalk out front. Now I prefer to stay away from public spaces, especially in places like urban parts of California that attract nuisances.
The obligations of being a public space include accepting panhandlers, nutty proselytizers, and people camping on any horizontal surface.
I can see that you really are from Santa Monica.
"how does that impact them as land lord? does this trigger an event that could lead to an unfortunate cascade?"
~~~~~
Yep, lowering the rent diminishes the valuation on the entire building ...
That kills your debt to equity ratio ...
Which lowers the value of the loans ...
When things are good outrageous rents are used for financial analysis ...
When things get bad they get very bad ...
If you don't have kids. . .
Think of it as evolution in action. . .
(niven; Oath of Fealty?)
Are we talking about CRE?
//"If they rent it for cheaper they have to value the whole building cheaper ... mark to market ..."//
~~~~
All real estate ...
The valuation is based on future earnings ...
I just laugh at all the apart sale ads for " upside in rents" ...
To make it worse they are usually under rent control ...
"I can see that you really are from Santa Monica."
Oh, I've got stories. One day I drove to my office and found that a tent city had been constructed in my parking lot. The planters outside the building were used as toilet stalls on a daily basis. I could go on, but I would prefer to forget much of that.
thanks!
so, that's why my friend the pizza franchise expanding to a new location is getting stiff armed by the out of town owners who won't give on the rent
he's gonna prolly walk and get another location, free standing and prolly just as good
There are some bums in downtown Miami, but no hookers that I can discern, nor transvestites, nor proselytizers. Not even that many bums.
I suppose the hookers and trannies are over on Miami Beach.
Maybe the proselytizers have given up.
mmckinl,
The same concepts can be applied to male-female realationships.
Wow, i am still logged in even though the computer was shutdown several times since I logged into the comments system yesterday. Is this a bug or a feature?
Even with all the empty retail space, commercial rents still remain high here in the mid willamette valley.
"...but no hookers that I can discern, nor transvestites..."
//
how can you tell the difference?
Oregon is special?
//Even with all the empty retail space, commercial rents still remain high here in the mid willamette valley.//
Dunno, as I said there are neither.
bobbi
My wife gets her hair done with the same woman for 12 years ...
Out of 12 CRE spaces 11 have turned over due to the
out of town owners raising the rents!
~~~~
When I bought, I bought well ... I lowered the rents and filled my buildings ...
New owners always buy the BS the RE agents sell them ...
Lucifer -
I'm always looking for my next ex-wife, just not in a rush.
Finally finished with my sleep deprivation days, now it is time to catch up on things.
I won't miss the out of towners. They aren't good for my town anyway.
Take back the trillions of $$$ given to the banks, who just sit on it and make it totally ineffective then start government incentive to create realistic industries that give employment and generate real productive income, some of which would hopefully be from exports.
Every other country, especially China and most of Europe have goverment incentives to protect it's industries. No matter what you call it it's a form of protectionism and its inevitable. We should stop being naive and take care of our own house. The only ones who win if we don't are the multinational corporations who don't care where they get their hand out.
good finance articles for a slow news day: Financial Opinions Updated Daily iamned.com
Lucifer
mmckinl,
The same concepts can be applied to male-female realationships.
~~~~
Have a wife, wouldn't trade her ... my second now for 22+ years ...
I live in Jacksonville, FL, and the community college here has one of its branch locations at a facility that was built to be a mall, though a small one. The community college has had the entire building for quite some time.
Seams to have worked out fine for them.
I suppose we'll see more of this going forward.
If they rent it for cheaper they have to value the whole building cheaper ... mark to market ...
Charming. If so the wastage mostly about kicking the can down the road on bad loans. The bank presumably stand for it because they know they'll get bailed out.
financierr - 2:46 pm
~~~~
Agree 1000% ...
Unfortunately we will have to dis-elect many in DC before this can happen ...
LOL Have a wife, wouldn't trade her
My first thought was a 'previously owned' car lot. With markdown specials. And shady salespeople. No warranties.
And valuing the whole building cheaper is bad--why?
Might get a real estate tax break. I guess it's some federal tax thing.
A singles bar?
//My first thought was a 'previously owned' car lot. With markdown specials. And shady salespeople. No warranties.//
I guess it's some federal tax thing.
Annual depreciation
We previously owned (owned??? Owned???) types get better as
time goes on.
JimPortlandOR
"My first thought was a 'previously owned' car lot. With markdown specials. And shady salespeople. No warranties."
~~~
We are all owned by something or someone ... most people are foolish enough to think they are free ...
Well, when you sell recapture will be less, right?
I don't think owned is quite the word.
mmckinl: agree, with exceptions rarely.
I'm retired, single, renter, and have some investment cash. I've been paring down the 'lifetime junk' (imaginary goal of living in a SUV while traveling the country). I feel pretty free
59 out of 131 comments ignored, and only three people on the list has to be some kind of record.
All you people dancing with the devil, stop.
Any use of "prolly", especially coupled with "gonna", stop.
Also, "worser" is not a word. Stop.
All this talk of empty malls, makes me think of a teenage wasteland.
YouTube - The Who ~ Teenage Wasteland / Baba O Reily (Lyrics)
Well, when you sell recapture will be less, right?
~~~~
If the you go below the original purchase price ...
These building have a way of going up in value for refinance
and portfolio valuations after original purchase ... used to anyway ...
add : and if the loss is realized ...
Funny thing, last singles bar I went to--a single friend dragged me--before Hurricane
Andrew, I could've picked someone up, but not my single friend. Got to talking about name
searches and how lien name search engines couldn't tell a boy from a girl and
the guy was actually invoved in that. He was charmed. I went home to the hub after
a coupla drinks. My friend went home with nobody.
"The obligations of being a public space include accepting panhandlers, nutty proselytizers, and people camping on any horizontal surface. I used to have offices in free-standing buildings, but got tired of having to ask the bums to stop blocking the doorways so that I could leave the building at night. At an office in Hollywood, we had to deal with transvestites hooking on the sidewalk out front. Now I prefer to stay away from public spaces, especially in places like urban parts of California that attract nuisances."
Believe me, I understand completely. Completely. Downtown Santa Cruz is in many ways a small version of downtown Santa Monica (particularly Santa Monica's pedestrian mall area, which I have visited in the past year). After the '89 quake, the redo of downtown SC was modeled in part on Santa Monica's.
We have coped at least partially locally with 1) a squad of "hosts" funded by the Downtown Association who patrol, identify potential trouble, try to defuse it if possible but also work hand in glove with the cop; 2) a new law that identifies that X number of unpaid civic violation tickets becomes a misdemeanor (including lying on the sidewalk or sleeping in public) which can land your ass in actual jail, and will (the judges and county jail are on board); 3) regs which limit where you can and can't panhandle (and the regulars truly know).\
This hasn't made downtown G-rated by any means, and there are plenty of people who say "they'll never go back there." But business gets done without hassle and it remains the prime entertainment/upscale retail space for 30 miles. When the street fills up, the crazies essentially get lost in the crowd.
What is clear is that any public space that isn't used and has advantages (concealed sleeping, central location for drug dealing) will be coopted by crazies (and often by dealers who use them as cover). Any mall used as a public space would need a mix of uses that would keep a good mix of people there all throughout open hours -- school for day and evening, performing arts for evening, restaurants all the time, and of course cops being right there and hanging out in the restaurants.
It may be an idealistic view, and an unrealizable one, but it is most definitely informed by the kind of problems you're talking about.
"Annual depreciation"
Here's an odd one for you. After the Northridge quake, an apartment owner nearby, whose building was red-tagged, just let it sit unoccupied. For ten years. Why?
Because the building was rent-controlled. After 10 years (+/-) the former tenants no longer had a claim on the apartments that they used to occupy. Once the time had expired, the owner repaired the building and rented it out at market. I doubt that he came out ahead on the deal, but he certainly has a much more valuable property now.
barfly should prolly ignore me, I bet he's gonna too
I believe in free will.
All you people dancing with the devil, stop.
We know that perfectly well barfly spellingpoliceman.
This is not a scholarly journal and I reserve the right to try to be funny.
You can reserve the right not to laugh or read my comments.
It's ok.
I won't ignore you, bobbi, doing so would leave my life worser.
Lucifer
I believe in free will. Smile
YouTube - Rush - Freewill ( Exit Stage Left )
As good as it gets.
An here I am in Montreal going to the massive underground shopping mall with its 29km of passages tomorrow morning. Some 2000 storefronts. Maybe it isn't contained the the US.
Hey dawg. Underground because of cold?
I have seen a lot of those massive under ground malls in Asia, buried below highways etc. Maximum use of space.
Morlocks and Eloi?
//I have seen a lot of those massive under ground malls in Asia, buried below highways etc. Maximum use of space.//
Future archeologists will think this has religious significance.
Beneath The Planet of The Québécois.
Bob Dobbs:
"We have coped at least partially locally with..."
You must have a functional city council in Santa Cruz.
Santa Monica does not, unless you count waging drawn-out battles over hedge heights, granny flats, and children's tree houses as functional.
One time I saw a guy crumpled in a heap in the staircase of a parking structure in downtown near the Promenade. So I called 911 to report a man down. The 911 operator berated me for wasting her time, claiming that it was just a bum sleeping it off. How she thought she knew, I don't know, unless she had already gotten multiple calls on the same body in the staircase.
liz: snork
I think the banana pudding is cool enuf (!!) to eat now.
the fact that any landlord ever has real motivation to leave a place empty is a sign of the fact that we're NOT a market economy. not even close. i suppose much of this is the business version of the cycle of nature - big corporation/REIT becomes big to the point where they're more interested in the illusion of a valuable portfolio than actual income - they go bust, and the properties return to scrappier entities actually interested in using the resource... too bad demographics and bonehead policies don't let the forest burn.
in any case, to my knowledge, depreciation only helps you to the degree which you have income to write it off against.
"in any case, to my knowledge, depreciation only helps you to the degree which you have income to write it off against.
Click here to refresh"
//
some may think a loss carry forward an asset in a liquidation
Ministry of Plenty in '1984'.
"But actually, he thought as he readjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connection with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connection that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version. A great deal of time you were expected to make them up out of your head."
Spent some time looking at Redfin today. Damn, people are delusional. What's with listing a property, it not selling, and then RAISING the price? Have seen several like that. Also seeing listings start at higher than bubble prices. Has the NAR been passing out Kool-Aid again?
The original Oxnard Home Depot location has been empty for a decade or more. Why? Because of ill negotiated tax breaks as long as it isn't repurposed and the fact that it keeps any potential competition just that much further away. As HH notes, both distinctly anti-market forces at work.
it's all such a gloomy mystery
"Has the NAR been passing out Kool-Aid again? "
I'm told that the flashbacks can last for years. Once the Kool-Aid has burned those little pinholes in the cognitive centers of your brain, delusion becomes a way of life.
"This is not a free market economy because they're inherently less efficient for mass production. "
This is not a free market economy because such an unrealistic notion can exist only for widgets.
The only people silly enough to think widgets have the slightest utility are economists.
sm_landlord:
In downtown Santa Cruz, "man down" gets a police visit, followed if necessary by an ambulance.
As for having a "functional city council" here, many would disagree. But downtown is important to a lot of a lot of people here, and city council spends a lot of time addressing detailed downtown issues f behavior and such that would probably be considered too small time even for the SM council -- whole evenings, sometimes. And that can happen because we're 55K or less -- definitely less when the students go home.
"Ministry of Plenty in '1984'."
What a great book.
widget: for want of a word a course was taught, for want of a course a formula was glossed and the better the money was made
HollywoodHack
The old saw is that the third owner of a CRE property
would be the first to make money on it ...
Ministry of Plenty in '1984' = US Treasury today?
pavel.chichikov -
"Ministry of Plenty in '1984'."
What a great book.
Yes, that's the year I graduated, man I wish he had titled it 1985. But then I proudly would have failed and been held back a year knowing my luck.
"And that can happen because we're 55K or less "
really apples to oranges - if santa cruz was part of santa clara county and the mountains between it and san jose didn't exist, they would be similar cities. but it isn't, they do, and they aren't.
"instead they have coddled the elderly and middle aged,"
I'm one of them. Some of us have been coddled, far more have received a kick in the crotch.
"Yes, that's the year I graduated, man I wish he had titled it 1985."
There were some stupid, complacent remarks in 1984 about how Orwell's predictions hadn't come through, as if the year was the important part of the prophecy.
Orwell's real name was Eric Blair, and he's one atheist I hold in sincere admiration.
even 1984 was bit early as a date for his predictions - winston's job was the creation of internet pornography, and artsem has come a long way since then....
That's more or less what I meant to say -- SC is a geographically isolated college town of modest size. SM is essentially an integrated neighborhood of the LA metro area. The downtowns may have similarities in how they're laid out and used, but the other factors come into play in helping Santa Cruz get a handle on issues that SM can't.
For my original mall-to-public space rant, I could definitely see it working in smaller cities and burbs, not so much in densely populated metro cores. But even there it can be apples/oranges, because San Jose / Santa Clara do not equal LA.
Shrub sighting:
Hot Dog Bush | Play Free Online Arcade Games - Yahoo! Games
I'm glad to see he didn't put all his eggs into the book deal.
those are the main differences. others include the fact that UCSC is a decent school located in the most beautiful location in the world, wheras SMC is a festering parody of a bad high school. but the poor folks next to the ten near virginia park and the new money west of Brentwood are united in at least one regard - a total lack of class.
Sorry to cut in on mall space post but Americans should be more clued into significant world events rather than buying more stuff for their bloated selves
The revolution will be blogged and tweeted and YouTube'd.
Daily Kos: The Islamic Republic of Iran Might Be Dead.(MAJOR Update).
been married 15 years and she's saved my but more times then I can count.
Oregon is special?
Not really, i think the umployment is the second or 3rd highest in the country. i'd like to rent a small office in the low hundreds. But landlords are still in denial i think. You know how everyone thinks their own town is special....
All this doom and gloom, I have the next couple of days off, I got a Chimay Blue clone in the mash, inverting some sugar into amber rock candy.
Life is good, had to say that.
I also had a long talk with a co-worker who bought at the top of the bubble here and is already 100K down, and I don't think she was happy when I showed her some of the charts on this site and pointed out that we are only in the early stages here and everyone is still in denial. (Its not just a river in Egypt.)
km4
thanks for the post ... Iran looks to be a new unknown ...
mmckinl (profile) wrote on Sun, 6/14/2009 - 3:42 pm
km4
thanks for the post ... Iran looks to be a new unknown ...
And hopefully this 'new unknown' is NOT along the lines of Donald Rumsfeld's “Foot-in-Mouth” award-winning quote:
“Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones. And so people who have the omniscience that they can say with high certainty that something has not happened or is not being tried have capabilities that are [beyond mine].”
Home Shopping Network is still broadcasting in analog. Wonder if their sales have gone up, now they and the Spanish-speaking evangelicals are the only game in town for the un-converted.
The whole idea of targeted tax breaks is extremely dubious. Allowing them is like getting down on your knees and begging for corruption. HH is right that the frequency of this kind of thing shows we're not in a "free market" situation in CRE.
I wonder what adding loans on these unused spaces to the "bum loan" category would do to bank balance sheets?
O! For the things we don't know that we don't know. Iran may well be a triggering event, one way or the other.
Is there really too much retail space? Or is the price per square foot too high? Is there some logical maximum allotment per person that makes sense?
Chavez Questions Patents, May Replicate Tetra Pak Technology
“What are patents? That’s universal knowledge. We don’t have to be subject to capitalist laws.” - Hugo Chavez
Others will follow...
"Iran may well be a triggering event, one way or the other."
The conflict there seems to be the Bazaar and the university elite against other parts of Iranian society. Don't know too much about the country, though. Where the RG comes down is probably decisive, and I haven't read that they're displeased by the result of the election.
Those malls would make excellent roller hockey courts...
This is so precious...
... - Yahoo! News Photos
Sniff* sniff*
The tax break is politically the easiest type of welfare program. "We'll just spend a little less. Government just wastes it anyway..."
Fools 'em every time.
"Goldman May Get $321 Million on Missed Trade Center Deadlines "
Goldman May Get $321 Million on Missed Trade Center Deadlines - Bloomberg.com
Oh, come on, Tim, it is cute.
km4
The situation in Iran could have important consequences throughout the middle east and beyond ...
That's why I called it an unknown ... We can only just wait and see ... at least hopefully we do ...
Should we step into that situation with another colored revolution it could be mayhem ...
I wonder what the utility bills are on a big mall... need janitorial service too.... Cost of operating? Anybody have any idea? Especially all the air conditioning in the summer, or heat in the winter up north...
Well I'd say the middle east is a known known.
Who in the world doesn't know about it. The details may differ,
the fact that it is a problem is excessively known.
In fact, it is boringly, I'm sick of hearing about it, give me a different crisis known.
1 currency now -yogi
The ROI for lobbying is much higher than for real business activity ...
That's why there are over 30,000 lobbyists in Washington DC ...
Patents are troublesome. Enforcement of a patent right is government intervention in the marketplace. The government picks a winner and licenses its monopoly. The free market can't protect innovation, the argument runs. They are protected by the Constitution , but why should Venezuela trust our market meddling system? How does Congress know the most efficient duration for patents? Are they Central Planners?
As has been frequently noted, we are experiencing the effects of "late-stage capitalism", where tax-breaks reap better rewards than actual productivity, and losses (expenses) actually result in gains (writeoffs).
Imagine the entrepreneurial growth that might occur if space for it were affordable. Yet, who is willing to provide such space, even when so much sits empty, when it appears more profitable to keep it empty?
Look at the Year ! from WAPO
June 22, 2005; Page A01
To the great growth industries of America such as health care and home building add one more: influence peddling.
The number of registered lobbyists in Washington has more than doubled since 2000 to more than 34,750 while the amount that lobbyists charge their new clients has increased by as much as 100 percent. Only a few other businesses have enjoyed greater prosperity in an otherwise fitful economy.
~~~~
It's only gotten worse ...
Bravo Hugo Chavez, the great Randian, with an ego to match.
Well I don't know whether barfly is ignoring me or not, but when I moved, it was
to a much nicer building in a bigger space, right next door to my old space so
clients could find me, and the leasing agent asked me not to say to anybody
else how much i was paying. Roughly 20 bucks a month more. So rents are
falling a lot. I do think that these nutso arrangements are relatively rare.
1 currency now -yogi
Bravo Hugo Chavez, the great Randian, with an ego to match.
~~~~
Patents are Dean Baker's pet peeve ... He's always on them in his column ...
I always thought patents were a good idea, generally. I understand
gaming of the system is happening, but still an overall good idea.
I knew there were too damn many malls 15 years ago, when times were better.
You couldn't throw a stone in SoCal without hitting a Walmart, CostCo, Macy's or some Dollar Store.
Someone above said we don't need more malls to buy worthless junk to stuff into our bloated selves.
Truer words were never spoken.
I was actually walking through the mall today on my way to get an (overpriced) haircut. Every store I passed, it could go away FOREVER tomorrow and we would not be worse off.
People waste more money on JUNK they do not need...THAT'S where this problem started and THAT'S where the change needs to happen FIRST.
Then we can fix things.
But.....people in this country are so damn lazy and apathetic. They just want something for nothing.
Bad News: Something just left town.
lawyerliz
"I always thought patents were a good idea, generally. I understand
gaming of the system is happening, but still an overall good idea."
~~~~
Patents have gotten way out of hand ... Do you know if you even own
the patent on your own DNA ?
Patents have been used to balckmail markets for food, spices and remedies
that have been in use for centuries ... by patenting their genetics and claiming their
common names !
re:patents - why is it a drug goes into the public domain just a decade after release, while a song stays in private hands for a full century? guess we need to ask the ghost of sonny bono, ira gershwin's wife and steamboat willie...
I'm teasing the ideologues, Liz. It's all in the details.
But if the free market can't produce the desired amount of innovation without regulation, or enough investment without guarantees like limited liability and cut-rate capital gains tax, what is so great about it again, as economic system?
Croatia claims world's largest pair of jeans
"I didn't think my ex-wife would ever cede her title..."
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"Well I'd say the middle east is a known known."
So what are Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran going to look like 3 years from now? How many U.S. troops will be present?
"I always thought patents were a good idea, generally. I understand
gaming of the system is happening, but still an overall good idea."
They have sure been good for lawyers.
However, software patents are bad. And copyright for anything over 28 years is worse.
With AIDS drugs the answer should be quite apparent. 10 years is too long for some.
Liz OK,OK the letter was cute... Maybe she could auction it off to help pay for her college ed.
Mark that day first Pres pardon.
My pet peeve is the governmental regulation of the number of new doctors allowed to practice in America. Foreign and domestic medical graduates must train in US hospitals. These teaching hospitals are heavily subsidized by Medicare and the VA. Congress, thereby, limits the funds for teaching hospitals and hence the number of new doctors allowed to practice here. It's a market tightly controlled by medical lobbyists (AMA) and their Congressional lackeys.
USATODAY.com - Medical miscalculation creates doctor shortage
Take away patents and you KILL innovation.
People complain about drugs being so expensive (Disclosure: I work for a drug company) and they say we milk our patent protection to the last dime and it should be gotten rid of.
Those people have no idea now many failures it takes to actually make a drug and have it get to market. You have to recoup the loss at some point.
Otherwise...no one will bother making new drugs and then don't come cry to me when you get the new penicillin resistant E Coli
Pretty soon we will all be flying to India for cheap medical care.
Free market competition is such a great idea. I want to copyright it so I can have a government regulated monopoly.
Yogster-=--hahahahahahahahahah
Not these assholes, I hope:
Eli Lilly ‘Ghostwrote’ Articles to Market Zyprexa, Files Show
Eli Lilly ‘Ghostwrote’ Articles to Market Zyprexa, Files Show - Bloomberg.com
Dow 6000
i would never accuse Rx companies for being anti competitive.
The issure is that they are not spending their money on Ecoli drugs they spend it on lifestyle drugs so they can get steady revenue streams. Nothing against that.
Saying if we don't buy name brand Rx's and support the Rx companies we will endanger public health is a form of extortion... IMO only of course
re: extra-territoriality of patents.
A patent is a grant of exclusion conferred by the sovereign. So of course, US patent laws can't extend to Venezuela without Venezuela's consent (e.g. WIPO). Of course, if Chavez wants to ignore US patent laws as his right, then the Swiss should be able to ignore US tax laws under the same principle...
Otherwise...no one will bother making new drugs and then don't come cry to me when you get the new penicillin resistant E Coli
of course, there was no innovation in the biosciences before Chkrabarty. And there was no business innovation prior to State Street. Interestingly, some companies prefer protection under trade secret, as it's potentially infinite duration, as opposed to the 20 years of a patent.
I agree with the idea that the laws are bad but its more economic than anything else. Its just not possible to raise a child on just a high school education and one worker like it used to be. This is bound to have an effect
Still population decline is the norm in an urban society. In the past it was disease kills, rural folk replace. In modern days its cost, children are a liability. No amount of social twiddling (short of tyrannical measures) can change this. Societies that have baby booms such as US in the 60's and current day Iran become unstable anyway. Less is more
Now the US gets around this some (even with all our religiosity we don't hit replacement) with suburbs and massive imports from poor countries with higher natality but this isn't healthy or sustainable. Its slow motion socioeconomic suicide
Frankly speaking the US could lose 60%-80% of its population over time (this would still leave us 2-4 more populace than Canada) and not decline a bit
Also as for "senior centric" policy -- you have a choice -- pension or growth -- without a pension scheme people tend to high frugality (say 25-25% savings rate) and without export markets this means deflation -- Japan gets around this by dumping on us but if we were minding the show and making it here/selling it here/buying it here/export the rest like we should japan would be SOL
Less on lawyers
Less on marketing (a legitimate drug that wor;s should sell itself with test results.)
Less on financing
Less on dividends
Less on secrecy (share all scientific data)
No problem funding innovation. I'll throw in for those bonuses myself.
Basel
RE Swiss banks. By asking the swiss to turn over names they are avoiding a lot of work they would have to do on their own.
yogi, your idealism is infectious, in itself. Could that we all got the bug.
On the marriage question up thread, I have very mixed feelings. I went through a very nasty divorce, and do not miss being with her at all, however I do miss my kids and w/o the marriage they would not exist. Still the general idea of equal protection under the law is a complete and total farce when it comes to family courts. Women may still have some disadvantages in the workplace, but they pale comparied to the difficulties guys have in divorce courts. As such, I hope my duaghter gets married and has kids, and my sons stay single for life.
O/T, but it might provoke some discussion, link to average IQ of college kids by intended major. Journalism is an interesting entry. Gross financial fraud, larceny and misappropriation doesn't seem to have a separate course, irrespective of the expertise shown later in life by so many.
The Audacious Epigone: IQ estimates by intended college major via SAT scores
Nothing for dying mall anthropologist either. Reinforces the critique that tertiary ed and the business environment are way too disconnected.
C
Yeah, does anybody have the formula of coke?
Tim WF 2012 wrote, "The issue is that they are not spending their money on Ecoli drugs they spend it on lifestyle drugs so they can get steady revenue streams. Nothing against that"
At least at my company, that is not true. We specialize in HIV and hepatitis drugs. I would not lump those in with Viagra by any means.
The remainder of our business is taken up with : Alzheimer's, Heart meds, Parkinsons as well as some pet medications.
So we are not all the same...just sayin
Yeah, does anybody have the formula of coke?
I did but I snorted it.
I knew you would say that. I knew it.
In fact, I thought of deleting the word "coke" and substituting coca cola, but
I decided to set myself up for someone else to have a punch line.
Nothin' wrong with Viagra.
I'm behind on the west coast news, but I just heard Cal. has another foreclosure moratorium starting I believe tomorrow.
Anyone know anything about that? Maybe it's been discussed on one of these threads lately - been to busy to keep up lately.
Is it just Cali. or will it spread to other states?
LL, yeah, not sure when it goes off patient, but when it does, they should shift it over to being an OTC drug at much cheaper levels. Life is going to be hard as we get old, at least we should be able to have to good parts stay hard.
lawyerliz -
Yeah, does anybody have the formula of coke?
Which one, zero, classic, new?
I can make a good ginger ale, beers, meads, and wine but not coke.
It's bad enough the neighbours think I'm cooking ice.
I try, Barfly. I won't be curing cancer, but I can jawbone some public funding...
Not 100% BT. Tax cheating is criminal. Criminal law brings up such different issues that the systems are traditionally bifurcated. If Venezuela allows free competition, it stays in Venezuela (disregarding internet for now). But if Switzerland harbors tax cheaters' money, that interferes with the administration of laws within the US. Not a bright line, but distinguishable.
Outsider -
I'm behind on the west coast news, but I just heard Cal. has another foreclosure moratorium starting I believe tomorrow.
Mish had a rant about it today.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: California Foreclosure Moratoriums An Exercise Of Stupidity
Outsider I posted that I thought it likely to be a "Taking". Did Arnie make a showing of public health hazard or disaster?
I like mead and I like ginger ale. In Balto they used to have "golden ginger ale", which was
extra gingery. I find if I squeeze some ginger juice out of ginger root and add it to regular
ginger ale just a few drops improves the flavor vastly. I seldom buy sodas, 'cause they are sweetened with high fructose corn syrop. The ginger ales in the health food store are
made with sugar, but they are TOO gingery.
Wonder if Charlie Crist's drastic raising of the foreclosure fee will be more or
less effective than a moratorium?
yogi: if you're talking about blatant tax cheating, then I agree. From my very limited experience, most tax "evasion" is simply well-heeled individuals taking advantages of loopholes, shelters, etc to violate the spirit, but not the letter, of the law.
Cue Hugo Chavez: "In Venezuela, we still allow foreclosures, subject to rule of law..."
per Mark Hansen, Cali is in the 2nd wave of it foreclosure cycle.
Field Check Group: Real Estate & Finance
personal notes, lost the citation
“A fight is brewing over whether and how much national banks and thrifts must comply with state laws designed to delay or prevent foreclosures. Unlike consumer protection laws, state foreclosure and real estate property laws generally are not preempted. But if such a law affects the substance of a loan — or interferes with the bank's ability to collect a debt… It is likely to start a… war over preemption… Industry representatives said they are largely willing to accept a brief delay in foreclosures, since a limited 30-day stay would be hard to challenge legally, though indefinitely delaying foreclosures or banning them altogether would be unacceptable.”
6 oz sugar, I use normal or brown.
2-4 oz grated ginger
Half cup water.
Heat to a boil, cover, let rest for an hour - strain put into 2 litre soda bottle,
2 tsp lemon juice.
1/8 tsp yeast bread yeast, (I use ale yeast because that's what I have.
Fill to the curve of the bottle, let it sit out for two days.
When it is really hard like a normal soda bottle, put it in the fridge and pour a glass whenever you want. Adjust to your taste.
Well, it is digital tv land. I live 14 miles from DC. What stations do I get?
japanese
korean
spanish
german
dutch
fox 5
NorkaWest
per Mark Hansen, Cali is in the 2nd wave of it foreclosure cycle.
Field Check Group: Real Estate & Finance
~~~~
WOW!
Basel Too -
From my very limited experience, most tax "evasion" is simply well-heeled individuals taking advantages of loopholes, shelters, etc to violate the spirit, but not the letter, of the law.
I need me some of those, when I do my taxs it is, no, no, no, no, I'm surprised Turbo tax doesn't cry for me.
There is a difference between tax avoidance and tax cheating... The congress passes a lot of tax policy laws that are really social engineering, and it is intended to influence the citizen's decisions... Offering tax incentives is one of those things... i.e. there would not be as much rental housing without depreciation... The thing that the govt does not understand is when they meddle in the markets, they become part of the market, and then the populace may react in unanticipated ways... Our goal as taxpayers is always to pay as little as possible - so you have Bill Clinton deducting $3 for a pair of used underwear - a charitable donation... Tax cheating would be something like not paying your self employment tax at all, and then blaming it on Turbo Tax... Or conveniently forgetting about the income from your rental in the Dominican Republic... Or that cash you stuffed into your bra, or that you had wrapped in tinfoil in your freezer... That is tax cheating, and deserves a jail sentence...
so you have Bill Clinton deducting $3 for a pair of used underwear
I recently went to a mall in Arlington TX and noticed that half the mall was empty. Kind of depressing; but a thought came to me that triggered some hope. Many senior citizens like to exercise in the mornings by walking in malls. Malls are safe, climate controlled and provide active interaction with people of all ages. Seniors also like self service-cafeteria style food which is a readily available in mall food courts. I then thought it could be a good idea to turn the empty half of the mall into senior apartments, maybe 400-500 sf each, 1 mall bedroom + bathroom and a small kitchenette, 1-2 person occupancy. Since the parking needs for retail space compared to senior housing are typically 10-1, the large parking lot on the senior apartment side of the mall could be turned into green space with a putting green, fountains, sitting areas, lawn bowling, etc. Inside the mall, a health care center with physical therapy/exercise could be added. The health care center could also be used by the mall's regular customers. This could partly solve the excess mall space and provide seniors with active living. Gov't subsidies already exist for senior housing, so the money is out there. Finally, malls are a lot less depressing than some of the senior housing out there and the family could make the mall an outing with two purposes. Shop and see the grand parents. Anybody have thoughts on this idea.
Sounds great to me.
There is at lease one 3 or 4 story building in Hialeah, which is shops and offices on the first floor and appartments on the rest. Bottom like a strip mall. No greenery tho; it was planned the
way it is.
Edit: Moved.
Edit: Moved.