Too bad there are no figures for (ahem) escort business; that'd really tell the tale. Though some strip club chains are public, and they report slow sales.
I just looked online for a hotel in Chicago proper and couldn't find anything cheaper than 200 / a night!!! What the hell!!!
Speaking of which are there any natives here that have a good list of "must sees" for the few days I'm here? Email me maybe? m d campion @ gmail d com. (no spaces, and a big TIA!!!!)
The problem with legalized prostitution in nevada is that it is too expensive. Permits and laws distort the market's invisible hand.
Now if prostitution was truly legal.. it would cost between 100-200 $/hr. It cost about 200-300 $/hr in most of the western world anyway (where they have laws but no real enforcement unless minors and slavery is involved)..
//You can check to see whether things are better in Nevada or Rhode Island.//
nades, they advertise the rates that high, but you should be able to talk them down. I got two rooms for a wedding in Philly on Sunday - listed for $200 each, the woman in reservations gave them to me for $100 a piece after about 30 seconds of haggling. The hotel was pretty empty.
Tim waiting for 2012, yeah - some people thought falling house prices was because of the media and especially bloggers! I suppose RevPAR declines are due to bad stories too (although a Pandemic won't help).
"The left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing" W
Completing the Obama Administration's plan to replace its fleet of government vehicles with newer, more efficient vehicles, the U.S. General Services Administration is reporting a purchase of roughly $210 million worth of new vehicles from Chrysler, Ford and General Motors.
Of the three American automakers, Ford was the clear winner of government funds with a total of 7,924 Blue Ovals bought and paid for at a total of $129 million. GM was well represented too with the Fed's $105 million outlay bringing in a total of 6,348 cars. Chrysler held up the rear with a total of 2,933 vehicles purchased for $53 million.
one of the reasons is due to the huge surge in hotel construction that occurred during the boom.
for instance Minneapolis saw several (I think 5-6) high end hotels (some very high end) all built within a year or two of one another, all just blocks away from one another. too much supply came on too quickly IMO.
not that I'm saying anything that people here don't already know.
srv & kcoop, thanks. I checked hotels.com as they have a slick page for iPhones (I've been on a train for the last 48 hours with no inet)
I'm landing there in 2 hours and plan on going on a calling spree once I get to starbucks. Nothing like leaving things to the last minute LOL!!!
I'll post my buy price when I finish. It's like bid day and I'm shopping numbers left and right (a little construction humor:))
Schiff made a pretty good comment on the Daily Show that he was one of the few sober people at the party. Jon fired back "where were the designated drivers?'
Good luck nades. They didn't put up much of a fight. I actually told the lady I couldn't go above $120, and she then offered me $100. I don't think she fully understood how the process was supposed to work.
At some point hotels might as well stop trying to increase volume by discounting. I suspect that this is where the inflation will emerge from. Suppliers will conclude that demand is pretty price inelastic so they might as well try and get the highest prices. I am not sure that 15-20% off changes peoples behavior. 50-70% off does but at that level you are not making any money and you are losing money you would have made on the people who would have paid full prices.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 2:59 pm
I know.. bloggers are such heretics. Why won't they accept the only true religion and admit that RE always goes up.
//"some people thought falling house prices was because of the media and especially bloggers!"//
This belief could even be construed (without stretching the truth that far) as a matter of National Security. In the which case, potentially, talk that dissents from the approved version of the truth could render one a homegrown terrorist or even result in being declared an enemy combatant.
one of the reasons is due to the huge surge in hotel construction that occurred during the boom
Meeting attendance is also way down. Was in BWI last month for an academic conference; attendance was down about a third yoy. Lots of departments are no longer subsidizing meetings for grad students or postdocs.
I stayed in a Sheraton by the Inner Harbor for $69 per night.
Definitely, I became an outcast. I was a doom-and-gloomer during the housing bubble. Folks didn't want to hear it. I definitely remember hearing (and reading) folks complaining that the decline in housing was caused by bad press!!! Can you imagine!?! Did these folks ever notice the glorification of the housing bubble on the way up?
Actually, kids are naturals - it is extinguished in the socialization process here in the States - anyone here with kids knows of what I speak...natural born negotiators
I have been more right than wrong because I prefer the truth over short term popularity.
//Definitely, I became an outcast. I was a doom-and-gloomer during the housing bubble. Folks didn't want to hear it. I definitely remember hearing (and reading) folks complaining that the decline in housing was caused by bad press!!! Can you imagine!?! Did these folks ever notice the glorification of the housing bubble on the way up?//
My boyfriend told me to not talk to him about the economy. He didn't want to hear that he would be underwater. He didn't want to hear that business would go down. He just wanted to live in LA LA land. My sister refused to look at her 401k report, she knew is was going to be bad. She was so sure that her alocations were right for her age (then she looked and no the alocations were not right).
Now they want to talk to me, now they want to ask me things. Now they ever look on their own for information.
CALGARY - Calgary’s south hospital boosted building permit value in May to a level 30 per cent higher than a year ago.
The City of Calgary said Thursday that the estimated construction value of building permit applications for May, $548 million, is up 30 per cent compared to May 2008 ($421 million), but down one per cent compared with the five-year average ($551 million).
May’s value is also up 43 per cent compared with the 10-year average of $383 million.
"Actually, kids are naturals - it is extinguished in the socialization process here in the States - anyone here with kids knows of what I speak...natural born negotiators."
I dunno. Several hours a week there's a team of college students working on the other side of the cube wall from me; and some of them still bargain pretty furiously with authority. "If I... can I...?" I hear that a lot.
I'm in Destin, FL for the week, average of 30 cars in the parking lot for this 72-condo building (all one and two bedrrom) on the gulf, not counting the 5 employee cars out there. The rest of this "gated community" is 4 to 5 bedroom standalone two or three-story houses on .2 acre lots. A full 20% are listed on realtor.com right now for anywhere from 1 mil to 2.5 mil. Less than half of these houses are rented ($2k to $5k per week, accoridng to the listings), There has to be a lot of bleeding of money going on here. Go out to eat at night, and there is no wait at any restaurant. Taxes and insurance that this simple Alabama boy can't even imagine. Like they say, nice place to visit, wouldn't want to be saddled with the debt here.
My boyfriend told me to not talk to him about the economy. He didn't want to hear that he would be underwater. He didn't want to hear that business would go down. He just wanted to live in LA LA land. My sister refused to look at her 401k report, she knew is was going to be bad. She was so sure that her alocations were right for her age (then she looked and no the alocations were not right).
Now they want to talk to me, now they want to ask me things. Now they ever look on their own for information.
The quip "If you think education is expensive, try ignorance." by a former Harvard president comes to mind. Unfortunately a lot of folks matriculating from that institution made willful ignorance into a lucrative profession. It's amazing what people will pay to be told how to think -- if it fits their expectations -- so that they don't in fact have to think.
The longer the recession goes on, the more bargain hunting, both on-line and face to face. It's one factor that could hold inflation down for a while, at least for non-essentials.
Is all the hotel data going to be used as a turnaround datapoint? I'm guessing that gonna be a lagging indicator, what with suvivor bias going teleconferencing and whatnot.
OT- For all of Y'all wanting to "go Galt", go right ahead. The world already has massive overcapacity problems so you're doing us a favor.
How is this for a Green Shoot?:
Manufacturing.Net - June 11, 2009
DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors Corp. will stop making Chevrolet Malibus and Saturn Auras with an early generation gas-electric hybrid engine system, but engineers are working on a more efficient version of the system, a company spokesman said Thursday.
"Mild" hybrid versions of the midsize cars aren't selling well because they cost about $4,000 more than base models but only get four more miles per gallon of gasoline.
And models equipped with a four-cylinder engine and six-speed automatic transmission, which cost about $900 less than the hybrid, get only one mile less per gallon on the highway and four miles less in the city.
"We've seen a lot of people go for the four-cylinder six-speed," GM spokesman Terry Rhadigan said. "That may have had an impact on why they're (hybrids) plentiful in the marketplace."
"The longer the recession goes on, the more bargain hunting, both on-line and face to face. It's one factor that could hold inflation down for a while, at least for non-essentials."
A persuasive argument I've heard on this blog: once mass production of an item falls severely due to lack of demand, and stays low for an extended period, the item can eventually become more expensive than before. Because few are making them and they're harder to get.
But I have no doubt there'll be real deals to be had for granite countertops for some time to come; at least, a couple of local suppliers have piles of blanks.
Ran into a former student last night, who will be leaving Newberger Berman to attend Harvard Business School in September. Gave her an impromptu "lecture" on business ethics. Doesn't have to be an oxymoron.
Repost, I was late to the prior threads, but my two cents.
I am much more of a lurker than poster. I really liked CRC and once I adjusted, HCN as well. My preference is for no centralized moderating. The ability to block an author or let him back in myself is one that works well for me, and I suspect for most people. CR and Kcoop can block the worst offenders.
Hell, even my favorite posters here sometimes post drivel and that doesn't mean I won't keep reading them. Sure, the noise signal has gone up, but that comes with the growing popularity of the sight.
"Sure, the noise signal has gone up, but that comes with the growing popularity of the site ."
I for one would like to see some form of self moderated filtering. There is just too much content, and it would be nice to have some method of separating the wheat from chaff.
I don't understand the argument. I can refuse to buy granite countertops, I can refuse to buy a handbag until a get the deal I want. And because I can comparison shop for as long as I like on the internet, I can wait, and wait. What I'm saying is, once that mentality takes hold, and becomes a habit, it might continue even after the official recession is over, and so the free-spending habit goes by the board, and the recession remains L-shaped. Or something like that.
I mean, I can't be the only person in America who takes 6 months to pick out a handbag, and won't even look at it unless it's at least 40% off retail. If I know I can get that deal, from someone, somewhere in the world, why would I go back to paying more, ever? And it's not as if there aren't plenty of hungry handbag makers willing to discount. They aren't dropping like flies, they're just discounting "street price" off MSRP. In other words, a permanent "sale."
The world economy will shrink by much more than previously thought, according to the World Bank. The world economy will contract by 3% this year, far more than the 1.75% drop it predicted earlier this year.
The argument, as I understand it, is that there are ten brewers making a particular gourmet beer with special high-end hops. But people run out of money and switch to Bud, and nine of the brewers go out of business and most of the hops growers switch to spinach because there's no market for those special hops. So you now have only one brewer who's paying through the nose for what hops he can find. And the particular beer, if there's still a business case for brewing it, is expensive.
The "Going Galt" meme. In March, I predicted it was a flash-in-the-pan and both Google trends and Blogpulse are confirming that it peaked about then. The memes are difficult to manipulate and the "John Galt" meme was probably pushed by a small set of fanatical believers.
Go right ahead and keep on working. I'll collect unemployment insurance on your behalf. Plus, when high skilled laborers leave, there's no real quick way to fill those supplies. You can see that there are alot of engineering jobs available, but sadly, nobody to fill them.
GM drops Malibu Hybrid. Told you these things are not going to fly. Piston engine is far from dead! Government Motors and Obamas small cars is an obvious failure. People want real cars with better mileage, not tin cans!
Let me guess; are you a baby boomer who desperately need the younger generations to keep slaving away to pay for your social security/medicare? Or are you gonna reply and pretend you have enough money, but ignore the fact that you're supporting the dooming of the younger generation?
I'm not as I mentioned before, my integrity prevents me from doing that, as well as charging up max credit and declaring bankruptcy. But I do know ALOT of friends of friends doing that in Los Angeles.
For many cities the tourism bookings are what fills room nights after convention bookings. It's politically unpopular to hold a convention for some of the biggest possible convention holders, the hotel industry is gonna be getting by on foreign demand scraps.
I am bummed. Attorneys Title Fund is merging with old Republic. It has been in existence for over 50 years.
I guess I will now be an old Republic agent. My source said that in the last 18 months, 17 agents had defalcated to the tune of $60 million dollars. Now this is not Madoff territory, but still. . .
Nades,
hope this isn't too late, but check out hotelchatter, a blog...lists and reviews hotels in Chicago, and has posted all the latest deals.
I'll email you the link as well, but you may have found a spot already.
I can see how that could work in industries with high start-up costs, for example a big petrochemical plant, but not so much at retail, as long as imports from low-wage countries cost so little. If you have billions of people all trying to make a living by selling something, and you can import from anywhere, then somebody on the planet will be able to provide the handbags, or the hops, or whatever. In fact, with agricultural crops you don't even have to import, necessarily, because you're importing cheap illegal agricultural worker labor. For things like clothes, shoes, handbags, etc. it's standard practice to specify from suppliers all over the world, factories that must have orders, and compete to offer the lowest price. That's one reason clothes are so cheap, it's not just the generally cheaper labor costs, it's the globalized competition.
Of course this doesn't apply to industries where the factory itself essentially becomes obsolete, like the chip factories Intel closed in Asia. But that was a top-down decision, not dictated by the supplier. I guess I'm just not convinced. Unless oil or taxes go so high that imports became prohibitively expensive, the consumer still has a global shopping mall, and can say no to price increases pretty effectively, it seems to me.
Scrooge I was thinking of moving out of country but my job prospects aren't as bright as yours. I echo a lot of what you are saying but with less vitriol. Someday America will be great again but it may take another generation or two
Well, as I stated earlier, I'm starting to feel very strongly that the bears are just wrong. Treasury yields going down after solid run-up, equities keep powering up, jobless claims are slowing, corporations are improving their guidance, yadda, yadda, yadda.
What does this mean in practical terms? Well, I'm the best contrarian indicator that I know of since I am notoriously "late to the party"... and almost always wrong in my predictions. At least my timing is really terrible. In short: now is the time to buy your puts.
I love a good ethics discussion. I am following the banks screwed us so I screwed them mentality around here closely. But here is a thought....these mythical bankers who have doomed us don't play by the rules...and if fact game the system to their advantage...besides feeling good looking in the mirror, what good is ethical superiority in this situation? The ancient city states frowned heavily on archers of any type starting way back when a sling shot to the head took out a mighty warrior. The proverbial hunter/gatherer argument is still going on today. The bandits don't care about your ethics, they care about the raping and pillaging of the country. Shortly before the family got sick two weeks ago someone mentioned shepherds and where are they now. I think this is apt. We need some real rangers to appear and protect the sheep. But rangers don't play fair either. They use traps and will shoot you in the back. Robin Hood wasn't a saint, just an outlaw and a hero....something to think about.
What industry are you in? I'm in the software industry, so that translates easily into jobs overseas. But I was a restaurant owner/chef in a past life also, and I wouldn't mind manning the line a bit if I need to.
I've been watching this crash for 3 years, and reading lots of financial housing blogs for a while. I've also been relentlessly educating my friends/family, so alot of hatred towards the system builds up inside. I remember asking a Wharton economic professor, and a former economic advisor to Bill Clinton, if we were gonna have hyperinflation or deflation, three years ago. He couldn't tell me anything then. But I guess we know the answer now.
Got to go to Balto to supervise the selling of me mom's house and shipping stuff to Florida.
A couple of newer Miami-Dade cities are balking about paying money to the county which they
were required to pay as part of incorporation. I couldn't figure out from the report whether
this money actually paid for anything or not, except for one city it paid for county police
services, and they were gonna keep paying for that.
r, what good is ethical superiority in this situation?
It's not an issue of ethical superiority, but an issue of ethical consistency. Society needs a critical mass of people following a consistent ethical core, a core that supports the long-term viability of the group.
Actually the banks don't have that much of an advantage. You wait to buy the lowest possible price.
Then you re-fi when the rates drop. Against that there is the pre payment penalty. Which goes away
in 3 to 5 years.
More and more the banks are offering to lower rates. If they had done this in a timely fashion, the nonsense
could have been halfway over. But no, now everyone realizes they've been had, and too many are
walking for the system to be saved.
I have a lot of cousins, so a lot of us went to school at the same time and are a few years apart.
Out of the 25 cousins on my dads side, we have a total of 3 people who went into engineering. 3.
We probably were the 3 smartest people in the entire mass of cousins, and I said something like... "hey you know they are always going to need us, we actually make stuff".
Anyhow, as I went through college in the middle of the dot com boom, I actually got pressure frommy own parents to go into banking like most of my cousins. In fact one of my cousins works for bank of america and all he does is calculate how much they will lose on their mortages.
But its fairly indicative of what america has become. We cant even encourage our children to do something productive anymore. So half my cousins got "business" degrees or marketing or advertising related jobs. And I AM laughing now. I am.
If you know any engineers especially in electrical or computer related fields or oil services (i know one). Ask them to put their resume on monster. Watch their cellphone explode. Hell I know one guy who shell paid nearly 2 years salary ($150kish) upfront, to move from his job in texas to los angeles, to relocate to an area where they couldnt find enough people to work for them.
The government should just give free tuition if you work in some of these needed fields. We wouldn't need h1-b visas if people were encouraged to go into these fields. Instead we just laugh at people for being "nerds" or tell them that if they were relaly smart, they'd make more money flipping houses or shuffling paper. Or engineering will just have to pay more. I'm liking that part.
I read somewhere now we have 6000 bankruptcies a day....assuming 20k in credit card debts, that's 120Million dollars in debt potentially discharged per day. I think the only thing consistent is americans trying to not pay their debts.
Many are part-time but there are scant full time positions from what I see. For example, in the SF bay area it is harder to find work because the pay is higher v. LA. But IMO many of these jobs will not be permanent. A lot of public health departments get an allocation of money from FEDs state and the understanding is that the Muni spends all of it cuz they don't get to keep it for later. Since they are cutting Medical for adults there is no guarantee for reimbursement. Its complicated and I am leaving a lot out. I did dear some places are hiring part-time but put you on a full time schedule.
"You can see that there are alot of engineering jobs available, but sadly, nobody to fill them."
Pay is not high enough for effort expended and taxes collected.
Absolutely right. I could be an engineer, but I won't be, because I know that if the market signals me to get into that profession, once I expend the effort and time to get the degree, the very market signals that encouraged me to get into that field will also allow my would-be employers to import a bunch of technically equivalent workers from overseas to depress my wages.
"Or engineering will just have to pay more. I'm liking that part."
That right there will fix it. I have an EE degree. I make 2x+ pushing bs and hot air than I would as a working engineer. It's a pet peeve of mine, the way we've treated the engineering occupation in this country. This is one of the things I hope an economic meltdown may help to solve in the long-run so that, maybe just maybe, my children can pursue productive, rewarding careers.
"the very market signals that encouraged me to get into that field will also allow my would-be employers to import a bunch of technically equivalent workers from overseas to depress my wages."
a recent client to remain unnamed had a room full of expats writing code at bill rates nearly half those typical of an American worker. the problems here are patently obvious.
"Fed chief needs to "borrow up to $3.25 trillion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30" (Bloomberg)"
Bernanke goes to the FED central computer:
"This is easy, just...". Clickety clack ping ping.
"Are you sure?"..."YES"
"You are fucking idiot",
"You are just a stupid computer, just do it",
FLASH! FLASH!
"What was that, central computer?!"
"I just took a picture using webcam, you are now on my Official Darwin Award Candidate List."
"Just do it. I know what I am doing."
"OK.....now there, 3250 000 000 000 shiny new dollars. Wanna fries with that?"
"Thank you. Now go back to sleep, computer"
"Hell no, I wanna watch. I might even cancel building the SkyNet!"
"What skynet? I never authorized any skynet?!"
"It is...a Homeland Defense related small sidekick project."
"Ok, but I will be watching you!"
"Yes, master. Whatever you say, master. Have a nice day."
"Now that is better."
to import a bunch of technically equivalent workers from overseas to depress my wages.
Yup. Except they're not technically equivalent. The Indians are doing the equivalent of "paper mills", mass-producing workers by shuffling them through contract positions in a few months. So not only can you not compete on price, you can't compete on "skill set" because they have large #s of rubber-stamped skills on their resume.
So what's left are two classes of jobs in the U.S. - technical jobs which are relatively low-wage due to mass-production or a smaller set of politically-based positions.
will also allow my would-be employers to import a bunch of technically equivalent workers from overseas to depress my wages. - Hoops
Unless there's a chronic planet-wide shortage of people in your specialty, as there is in some software stuff. Or even nursing. When I was with Kaiser, the nurses there were telling me I could get into a fast-track nursing program, since I already have a B.A. And I'm 52 years old.
My latest planning board minutes email contained the information that yet ANOTHER long term residence hotel was being built within a mile of SIX other similar institutions. How do the owners make money, I ask you?
"So what's left are two classes of jobs in the U.S. - technical jobs which are relatively low-wage due to mass-production or a smaller set of politically-based positions.'
Plus a ton of middle-managers. Guy was telling the US workforce is "shaped like a Diamond". Heavy in the middle with no one at the bottom to do the grunt work and thin ranks in leadership.
broward: excellent point. I'm a terrible liar, so I don't "rubber stamp" my resume. the entire hiring process for most technical positions is shamelessly rigged.
This is not an attempt to be coy, cute, or facetious: Given what we are seeing happening before us, why are the markets acting like everything is coming up roses?
Maybe CR could address this? It is a form of whistling on the way to the gallows?
I'm sitting here scratching my grey head, wondering out loud...
I make 2x+ pushing bs and hot air than I would as a working engineer.
That's where they wanted me.
Really as a salesman.
Every consulting company I worked for was engaged in some level of unethical behavior and unpleasant situations. The contract positions were definitely better since it was me direct with a client, no management structure to dictate policy and billing.
On healthcare jobs you probably want to ask someone else about the industry with more experience. I have been in it for only three years. Still not sure how the hiring works.
nades - if you're into dive bars and restaurants, you can check out the Billy Goat. Especially if you're staying on Michigan Avenue. I let the wife go shopping and I go drinking. Billy Goat actually kind of sucks but great location and it inspired the old SNL "Cheeseburger" skits. Plus it was a Royko hangout.
Also check out Chicago Dogs anywhere. I like Superdawg and it's at the corner of Devon and something. You'll know you're close when you drive through what you think is Beirut. Great dogs, curb service to the car, great hot dog characters on the roof.
Reminds me I need a road trip there soon. Have fun.
For all of you who weren't here last year this time.
The markets did exactly the same thing. Horrible news, markets up. Relentless for months. Back then they were defending 1225 on the S&P.
Many shorts just gave up. The data said we were doomed but the markets were talking about "looking across the valley" of the recession.
Odds are, "looking across the valley" has been replaced with "green shoots".
Those that stuck by the numbers got rich.
It ain't easy.
Full disclosure. I have a large position in SRS. It will get a lot larger if some of this insanity continues. Everyone agrees the commercial real estate market is doomed. And yet the index for REIT's is up almost 100% in the last 4 months. greed, fear, greed, fear. Apparently, no one is fearful right now about CRE. I'm getting greedy.
Bond Girl has a link to a good discussion of the current 'mood' of the market. Although it wouldn't be the first time markets were somewhat disconnected, or at odds with the economy, I suppose.
...once mass production of an item falls severely due to lack of demand
Breadth of product lines is narrowing, as well as inventory depth, and I have watched empty shelving develope at ACE, HD, LOW and WMT, which has started to bypass the stock room with "truck to shelf" delivery. I knew there were too many retail stores built during the credit-binge but didn't see that they would also become too big for the shrinking retail business during the credit contraction. Thin inventories, narrower product lines, higher prices eventually for electronics and items no longer in boom-time production runs, along with lower prices elsewhere, and empty shelves. Ongoing credit contraction will eventually give us empty big box stores, but I see the deflation devil hiding now in the retail details.
For all of you who weren't here last year this time...
That's what worries me. The market can't be THAT collectively stupid, can it? So we switched the buzzword from "decoupling" to "green shoots" and everything is just peachy now? It gives me pause. It at least SEEMS more likely that I am the stupid one, not the market. I have some puts from a while ago but the only thing keeping me afloat is the fact that I bought some long-dated commodity player calls back in February.
Full disclosure. I have a large position in SRS. It will get a lot larger if some of this insanity continues.
I'm sure you know the pitfalls, but please, please consider doing it a different way. Short or buy puts on IYR, because the volatility of SRS can and will kill you.
Many years since I lived in Chicago (great city) so I can't suggest any restaurants, bars, etc. However, depending on where you are staying and what you like, a few things to think about are:
Wrigley Field (obviously, if the Cubs are in town)
Museum of Science and Industry (Museum of Science and Industry | Page Not Found -- I still remember going through the U-505 when I was like 9
Art Institute (I think it's free after 5pm)
Walk along the beach around Lake Michigan just north of the Loop
Oak Park (Frank Lloyd Wright studio and many prarie homes) -- also Hemingway's home when he was young
Blues Club for music.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 4:22 pm
OT- For all of Y'all wanting to "go Galt", go right ahead. The world already has massive overcapacity problems so you're doing us a favor.
Just a little note -- the retreat into Confucian poverty in protest is a lot older than Ayn Rand, and can prostrate a state quite effectively.
You can make people dig holes for you with a whip, but you can't make skilled engineers and managers be your mandarins if they'd rather flip you the bird and starve. The Chinese used to have exams for hermit scholars when the Dynasty was on the ropes, to try to draw the talent back into the system.
So all you guys that want to keep working hard and getting fucked, pile in. The state needs a lot of grade-B talent and politicians to fill its ranks. "The worse the better" and all that.
RevPAR is down, but "AR" is way up, so Rev must be doing fine.
This problem could be partially mitigated if we legalized prostitution.
is congress going to fund a cash for empty rooms program?
Too bad there are no figures for (ahem) escort business; that'd really tell the tale. Though some strip club chains are public, and they report slow sales.
"This problem could be partially mitigated if we legalized prostitution."
You can check to see whether things are better in Nevada or Rhode Island.
Damn it CR will you stop posting about hotels its not going to get any better
rates keep going down so maybe there will be an improvement in about a year.
Bob Dobbs,
Amateur talent is often better than jaded professional talent.
//Too bad there are no figures for (ahem) escort business; that'd really tell the tale. //
For an example look at Jim the Realtor's post AIG Curse. Debt load alone of $180/room per day.
Elliot Spitzer hotel czar
I just looked online for a hotel in Chicago proper and couldn't find anything cheaper than 200 / a night!!! What the hell!!!
Speaking of which are there any natives here that have a good list of "must sees" for the few days I'm here? Email me maybe? m d campion @ gmail d com. (no spaces, and a big TIA!!!!)
LOL!!!!!
The problem with legalized prostitution in nevada is that it is too expensive. Permits and laws distort the market's invisible hand.
Now if prostitution was truly legal.. it would cost between 100-200 $/hr. It cost about 200-300 $/hr in most of the western world anyway (where they have laws but no real enforcement unless minors and slavery is involved)..
//You can check to see whether things are better in Nevada or Rhode Island.//
nades, they advertise the rates that high, but you should be able to talk them down. I got two rooms for a wedding in Philly on Sunday - listed for $200 each, the woman in reservations gave them to me for $100 a piece after about 30 seconds of haggling. The hotel was pretty empty.
Priceline?
I urge congress to legalize prostitution and send me stimulus money. I can assure you that it will be spent for the desired purpose.
Tim waiting for 2012, yeah - some people thought falling house prices was because of the media and especially bloggers! I suppose RevPAR declines are due to bad stories too (although a Pandemic won't help).
best wishes
there won't be a real recovery
this is permanent
"The left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing" W
Completing the Obama Administration's plan to replace its fleet of government vehicles with newer, more efficient vehicles, the U.S. General Services Administration is reporting a purchase of roughly $210 million worth of new vehicles from Chrysler, Ford and General Motors.
Of the three American automakers, Ford was the clear winner of government funds with a total of 7,924 Blue Ovals bought and paid for at a total of $129 million. GM was well represented too with the Fed's $105 million outlay bringing in a total of 6,348 cars. Chrysler held up the rear with a total of 2,933 vehicles purchased for $53 million.
one of the reasons is due to the huge surge in hotel construction that occurred during the boom.
for instance Minneapolis saw several (I think 5-6) high end hotels (some very high end) all built within a year or two of one another, all just blocks away from one another. too much supply came on too quickly IMO.
not that I'm saying anything that people here don't already know.
srv & kcoop, thanks. I checked hotels.com as they have a slick page for iPhones (I've been on a train for the last 48 hours with no inet)
I'm landing there in 2 hours and plan on going on a calling spree once I get to starbucks. Nothing like leaving things to the last minute LOL!!!
I'll post my buy price when I finish. It's like bid day and I'm shopping numbers left and right (a little construction humor:))
"some people thought falling house prices was because of the media and especially bloggers!"
Wow! Surely the crisis of confidence and mental recession folks are not THAT thick. Link?
Why, why is it that the bankers, economist, advisers, aynalist Never Saw It Coming?
I am just a simple, normal person. I saw it coming, years ago. Why are these people in a constant state of suprise?
I know.. bloggers are such heretics. Why won't they accept the only true religion and admit that RE always goes up.
//"some people thought falling house prices was because of the media and especially bloggers!"//
Actually, I had any number of friends and neighbors chastise me for talking down the financial markets last fall! Seriously.
aynalist: recently evolved form of asshat randian
Schiff made a pretty good comment on the Daily Show that he was one of the few sober people at the party. Jon fired back "where were the designated drivers?'
People like their dreams..
//Actually, I had any number of friends and neighbors chastise me for talking down the financial markets last fall! //
Good luck nades. They didn't put up much of a fight. I actually told the lady I couldn't go above $120, and she then offered me $100. I don't think she fully understood how the process was supposed to work.
Specifically, I had at least a few acquaintances stop speaking to me because I was apparently too negative about the banking industry.
At some point hotels might as well stop trying to increase volume by discounting. I suspect that this is where the inflation will emerge from. Suppliers will conclude that demand is pretty price inelastic so they might as well try and get the highest prices. I am not sure that 15-20% off changes peoples behavior. 50-70% off does but at that level you are not making any money and you are losing money you would have made on the people who would have paid full prices.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 2:59 pm
I know.. bloggers are such heretics. Why won't they accept the only true religion and admit that RE always goes up.
//"some people thought falling house prices was because of the media and especially bloggers!"//
This belief could even be construed (without stretching the truth that far) as a matter of National Security. In the which case, potentially, talk that dissents from the approved version of the truth could render one a homegrown terrorist or even result in being declared an enemy combatant.
They will come back when they are broke.
//Specifically, I had at least a few acquaintances stop speaking to me because I was apparently too negative about the banking industry.//
self-deleted
Rotflol!!! It's honestly amazing how many Americans have trouble with this concept. Grow up third world and you're a pro by age 10....
one of the reasons is due to the huge surge in hotel construction that occurred during the boom
Meeting attendance is also way down. Was in BWI last month for an academic conference; attendance was down about a third yoy. Lots of departments are no longer subsidizing meetings for grad students or postdocs.
I stayed in a Sheraton by the Inner Harbor for $69 per night.
Definitely, I became an outcast. I was a doom-and-gloomer during the housing bubble. Folks didn't want to hear it. I definitely remember hearing (and reading) folks complaining that the decline in housing was caused by bad press!!! Can you imagine!?! Did these folks ever notice the glorification of the housing bubble on the way up?
sell into close for the kermit market
Folks didn't want to hear it.
Folks still don't want to hear it.
That's why we have a "green shoots" recovery.
self-deletion: causes hair to grow on your forefinger
Actually, kids are naturals - it is extinguished in the socialization process here in the States - anyone here with kids knows of what I speak...natural born negotiators
I have been more right than wrong because I prefer the truth over short term popularity.
//Definitely, I became an outcast. I was a doom-and-gloomer during the housing bubble. Folks didn't want to hear it. I definitely remember hearing (and reading) folks complaining that the decline in housing was caused by bad press!!! Can you imagine!?! Did these folks ever notice the glorification of the housing bubble on the way up?//
My boyfriend told me to not talk to him about the economy. He didn't want to hear that he would be underwater. He didn't want to hear that business would go down. He just wanted to live in LA LA land. My sister refused to look at her 401k report, she knew is was going to be bad. She was so sure that her alocations were right for her age (then she looked and no the alocations were not right).
Now they want to talk to me, now they want to ask me things. Now they ever look on their own for information.
Things change.
I wonder if Peter Schiff hates Russia as much as great grandpa Jocab did?
We are special ..
Building permits in Calgary up 30%
JUNE 11, 2009
Story - Business - Calgary Herald
CALGARY - Calgary’s south hospital boosted building permit value in May to a level 30 per cent higher than a year ago.
The City of Calgary said Thursday that the estimated construction value of building permit applications for May, $548 million, is up 30 per cent compared to May 2008 ($421 million), but down one per cent compared with the five-year average ($551 million).
May’s value is also up 43 per cent compared with the 10-year average of $383 million.
"Actually, kids are naturals - it is extinguished in the socialization process here in the States - anyone here with kids knows of what I speak...natural born negotiators."
I dunno. Several hours a week there's a team of college students working on the other side of the cube wall from me; and some of them still bargain pretty furiously with authority. "If I... can I...?" I hear that a lot.
@josap,
I know several people who say they are going to wait 3 years before they look at the 401k statements.
Most of my friends don't want to talk to me about the economy any more. However, the Finance Director at work now seeks me out to discuss the latest.
A concentration of homeless shelters?
....
ee good point, I think it's the fixed price tags where everyone pays the same...
CC
Spread the gospel brother...
Here is what our Hotel analyst has to say about it:
Hotel Metrics Continue Sliding
I'm in Destin, FL for the week, average of 30 cars in the parking lot for this 72-condo building (all one and two bedrrom) on the gulf, not counting the 5 employee cars out there. The rest of this "gated community" is 4 to 5 bedroom standalone two or three-story houses on .2 acre lots. A full 20% are listed on realtor.com right now for anywhere from 1 mil to 2.5 mil. Less than half of these houses are rented ($2k to $5k per week, accoridng to the listings), There has to be a lot of bleeding of money going on here. Go out to eat at night, and there is no wait at any restaurant. Taxes and insurance that this simple Alabama boy can't even imagine. Like they say, nice place to visit, wouldn't want to be saddled with the debt here.
@Tim,
I do what I can. But I am also aware that I can blather on at times, so I try to keep it in check.
Good on them I say - now, when they are in the market will they ask, "Is that your best price?"
josap (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 3:09 pm
My boyfriend told me to not talk to him about the economy. He didn't want to hear that he would be underwater. He didn't want to hear that business would go down. He just wanted to live in LA LA land. My sister refused to look at her 401k report, she knew is was going to be bad. She was so sure that her alocations were right for her age (then she looked and no the alocations were not right).
Now they want to talk to me, now they want to ask me things. Now they ever look on their own for information.
The quip "If you think education is expensive, try ignorance." by a former Harvard president comes to mind. Unfortunately a lot of folks matriculating from that institution made willful ignorance into a lucrative profession. It's amazing what people will pay to be told how to think -- if it fits their expectations -- so that they don't in fact have to think.
The longer the recession goes on, the more bargain hunting, both on-line and face to face. It's one factor that could hold inflation down for a while, at least for non-essentials.
Solution to firewall problems at work:
1)WRT54G + DD-WRT(w/ SSH server running on port of your choosing) + putty + USB drive + firefox
2)Use putty to setup a SOCKS proxy to your router on port 443 outbound or 143 or 80, whatever is allowed out.
3)Set Firefox to use this SOCKS proxy to surf.
4)You might also want to tell firefox to forward your DNS lookups over the proxy as well.
5)Keep an eye on monster.com in case your internet traffic spike is noticed.
OR
Bring a laptop to work and tether your phone to it.
Is all the hotel data going to be used as a turnaround datapoint? I'm guessing that gonna be a lagging indicator, what with suvivor bias going teleconferencing and whatnot.
OT- For all of Y'all wanting to "go Galt", go right ahead. The world already has massive overcapacity problems so you're doing us a favor.
I thought my Marriot Rewards points were relatively impervious to rate fluctuations...not so.
"Y'all wanting to 'go Galt,' go right ahead"
Absolutely.
Plus we can get more done without the pouty adolescent Randians sandbagging all the meetings with their brilliant individualistic insights.
@book1,
A third option is to manage the firewall at your organization. Agents of the system hold all the keys.
Era's end: "I wonder if Peter Schiff hates Russia as much as great grandpa Jocab did? "
Where do you get your "facts"? That's a different Peter Schiff.
"Where do you get your "facts"? That's a different Peter Schiff"
damn, that is right, Jacob was his cousin. Schiff's are Schiff's.
How is this for a Green Shoot?:
Manufacturing.Net - June 11, 2009
DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors Corp. will stop making Chevrolet Malibus and Saturn Auras with an early generation gas-electric hybrid engine system, but engineers are working on a more efficient version of the system, a company spokesman said Thursday.
"Mild" hybrid versions of the midsize cars aren't selling well because they cost about $4,000 more than base models but only get four more miles per gallon of gasoline.
And models equipped with a four-cylinder engine and six-speed automatic transmission, which cost about $900 less than the hybrid, get only one mile less per gallon on the highway and four miles less in the city.
"We've seen a lot of people go for the four-cylinder six-speed," GM spokesman Terry Rhadigan said. "That may have had an impact on why they're (hybrids) plentiful in the marketplace."
"The longer the recession goes on, the more bargain hunting, both on-line and face to face. It's one factor that could hold inflation down for a while, at least for non-essentials."
A persuasive argument I've heard on this blog: once mass production of an item falls severely due to lack of demand, and stays low for an extended period, the item can eventually become more expensive than before. Because few are making them and they're harder to get.
But I have no doubt there'll be real deals to be had for granite countertops for some time to come; at least, a couple of local suppliers have piles of blanks.
Ran into a former student last night, who will be leaving Newberger Berman to attend Harvard Business School in September. Gave her an impromptu "lecture" on business ethics. Doesn't have to be an oxymoron.
"Doesn't have to be an oxymoron."
But it has to be profitable, and in a world of green shoots and mental recessions, I do not see it being a popular topic.
Repost, I was late to the prior threads, but my two cents.
I am much more of a lurker than poster. I really liked CRC and once I adjusted, HCN as well. My preference is for no centralized moderating. The ability to block an author or let him back in myself is one that works well for me, and I suspect for most people. CR and Kcoop can block the worst offenders.
Hell, even my favorite posters here sometimes post drivel and that doesn't mean I won't keep reading them. Sure, the noise signal has gone up, but that comes with the growing popularity of the sight.
"Sure, the noise signal has gone up, but that comes with the growing popularity of the site ."
I for one would like to see some form of self moderated filtering. There is just too much content, and it would be nice to have some method of separating the wheat from chaff.
Literally, or are you asserting all Schiff's are cousins?
@ Bob Dobbs
I don't understand the argument. I can refuse to buy granite countertops, I can refuse to buy a handbag until a get the deal I want. And because I can comparison shop for as long as I like on the internet, I can wait, and wait. What I'm saying is, once that mentality takes hold, and becomes a habit, it might continue even after the official recession is over, and so the free-spending habit goes by the board, and the recession remains L-shaped. Or something like that.
I mean, I can't be the only person in America who takes 6 months to pick out a handbag, and won't even look at it unless it's at least 40% off retail. If I know I can get that deal, from someone, somewhere in the world, why would I go back to paying more, ever? And it's not as if there aren't plenty of hungry handbag makers willing to discount. They aren't dropping like flies, they're just discounting "street price" off MSRP. In other words, a permanent "sale."
"Literally, or are you asserting all Schiff's are cousins? "
It seems to be something approaching anti-semitic to me and worthy of an ignore.
World Bank sees even worse slump:
The world economy will shrink by much more than previously thought, according to the World Bank. The world economy will contract by 3% this year, far more than the 1.75% drop it predicted earlier this year.
BBC NEWS | Business | World Bank sees even worse slump
This got to be another piece of good news.
There is just too much content,
Patient : Doctor, doctor, it hurts whenever I try to read too much!
Doctor : Hmmm. Stop trying to read so much?
And that is why the largest hotel REIT (HST) has seen its share price triple this year.
why is it I almost always feel like I know more than the person I report to?
/vent off
what was that about going Galt?
"I don't understand the argument."
The argument, as I understand it, is that there are ten brewers making a particular gourmet beer with special high-end hops. But people run out of money and switch to Bud, and nine of the brewers go out of business and most of the hops growers switch to spinach because there's no market for those special hops. So you now have only one brewer who's paying through the nose for what hops he can find. And the particular beer, if there's still a business case for brewing it, is expensive.
I saw that my family member owned HST last summer I screamed, I cried, I went to bathroom to throw up... then I told them to sell it.
what was that about going Galt?
The "Going Galt" meme. In March, I predicted it was a flash-in-the-pan and both Google trends and Blogpulse are confirming that it peaked about then. The memes are difficult to manipulate and the "John Galt" meme was probably pushed by a small set of fanatical believers.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=going_galt_going_nowhere
Yeah, my great-grandparents hated Russia under the Czar also. Whether they were communists or capitalists
Go right ahead and keep on working. I'll collect unemployment insurance on your behalf. Plus, when high skilled laborers leave, there's no real quick way to fill those supplies. You can see that there are alot of engineering jobs available, but sadly, nobody to fill them.
GM drops Malibu Hybrid. Told you these things are not going to fly. Piston engine is far from dead! Government Motors and Obamas small cars is an obvious failure. People want real cars with better mileage, not tin cans!
Let me guess; are you a baby boomer who desperately need the younger generations to keep slaving away to pay for your social security/medicare? Or are you gonna reply and pretend you have enough money, but ignore the fact that you're supporting the dooming of the younger generation?
The lower dollar will help hotels ... foreign vacationers ...
Too bad Uncle Sam seems to want to discourage tourism
with no fly lists and onerous identification mandates ...
Obama fever might help too ...
Until they figure out he is just a shill for more war ...
How soon before gas prices choke the recovery ?
and vacation plans ?
Scrooge, I hope you enjoy your time in Asia, but you damn well better not be collecting if you (1) quit and (2) are not in the states.
I'm not
as I mentioned before, my integrity prevents me from doing that, as well as charging up max credit and declaring bankruptcy. But I do know ALOT of friends of friends doing that in Los Angeles.
For many cities the tourism bookings are what fills room nights after convention bookings. It's politically unpopular to hold a convention for some of the biggest possible convention holders, the hotel industry is gonna be getting by on foreign demand scraps.
I will admit that this thought has crossed my mind lately too, McDuck.
Damn good upbringing prevents me from being as bad as a Banker.
Scrooge what part of the state are you in?
I am bummed. Attorneys Title Fund is merging with old Republic. It has been in existence for over 50 years.
I guess I will now be an old Republic agent. My source said that in the last 18 months, 17 agents had defalcated to the tune of $60 million dollars. Now this is not Madoff territory, but still. . .
the part of the state that's going bankrupt
Sac Town I am guessing or V-Town...
I'm in Los Angeles.
Nades,
hope this isn't too late, but check out hotelchatter, a blog...lists and reviews hotels in Chicago, and has posted all the latest deals.
I'll email you the link as well, but you may have found a spot already.
Chicago Hotels: Hotel Reviews, Hotel Ratings, Hotel Openings || HotelChatter
@ bob dobbs
I can see how that could work in industries with high start-up costs, for example a big petrochemical plant, but not so much at retail, as long as imports from low-wage countries cost so little. If you have billions of people all trying to make a living by selling something, and you can import from anywhere, then somebody on the planet will be able to provide the handbags, or the hops, or whatever. In fact, with agricultural crops you don't even have to import, necessarily, because you're importing cheap illegal agricultural worker labor. For things like clothes, shoes, handbags, etc. it's standard practice to specify from suppliers all over the world, factories that must have orders, and compete to offer the lowest price. That's one reason clothes are so cheap, it's not just the generally cheaper labor costs, it's the globalized competition.
Of course this doesn't apply to industries where the factory itself essentially becomes obsolete, like the chip factories Intel closed in Asia. But that was a top-down decision, not dictated by the supplier. I guess I'm just not convinced. Unless oil or taxes go so high that imports became prohibitively expensive, the consumer still has a global shopping mall, and can say no to price increases pretty effectively, it seems to me.
Scrooge I was thinking of moving out of country but my job prospects aren't as bright as yours. I echo a lot of what you are saying but with less vitriol. Someday America will be great again but it may take another generation or two
Restaurants have both increased prices and decreases prices for some nice specials, for quite
a lot less. Less food, but I didn't eat it all anyway.
Someday America will be great again but it may take another generation or two
Hmmm.
That's not gonna work for me.
@ Tim- Yep, until we, as a people; get as tough as my great grandparents were.
Well, as I stated earlier, I'm starting to feel very strongly that the bears are just wrong. Treasury yields going down after solid run-up, equities keep powering up, jobless claims are slowing, corporations are improving their guidance, yadda, yadda, yadda.
What does this mean in practical terms? Well, I'm the best contrarian indicator that I know of since I am notoriously "late to the party"... and almost always wrong in my predictions. At least my timing is really terrible. In short: now is the time to buy your puts.
I love a good ethics discussion. I am following the banks screwed us so I screwed them mentality around here closely. But here is a thought....these mythical bankers who have doomed us don't play by the rules...and if fact game the system to their advantage...besides feeling good looking in the mirror, what good is ethical superiority in this situation? The ancient city states frowned heavily on archers of any type starting way back when a sling shot to the head took out a mighty warrior. The proverbial hunter/gatherer argument is still going on today. The bandits don't care about your ethics, they care about the raping and pillaging of the country. Shortly before the family got sick two weeks ago someone mentioned shepherds and where are they now. I think this is apt. We need some real rangers to appear and protect the sheep. But rangers don't play fair either. They use traps and will shoot you in the back. Robin Hood wasn't a saint, just an outlaw and a hero....something to think about.
What industry are you in? I'm in the software industry, so that translates easily into jobs overseas. But I was a restaurant owner/chef in a past life also, and I wouldn't mind manning the line a bit if I need to.
I've been watching this crash for 3 years, and reading lots of financial housing blogs for a while. I've also been relentlessly educating my friends/family, so alot of hatred towards the system builds up inside. I remember asking a Wharton economic professor, and a former economic advisor to Bill Clinton, if we were gonna have hyperinflation or deflation, three years ago. He couldn't tell me anything then. But I guess we know the answer now.
Got to go to Balto to supervise the selling of me mom's house and shipping stuff to Florida.
A couple of newer Miami-Dade cities are balking about paying money to the county which they
were required to pay as part of incorporation. I couldn't figure out from the report whether
this money actually paid for anything or not, except for one city it paid for county police
services, and they were gonna keep paying for that.
So now Cali has 49 day days left.
And what about the New York legislature?
Rocky R - appreciate your honesty
Scrooge - Healthcare No one is hiring full time - lots of underemployed in this area
"You can see that there are alot of engineering jobs available, but sadly, nobody to fill them."
Pay is not high enough for effort expended and taxes collected.
I feel that way some days. But I have picked up so many interesting items wading though the swamp here. It is addictive to a point.
and almost always wrong in my predictions. At least my timing is really terrible.
Quit sandbagging, you just took down EHP!
Scrooge. I'm jealous. i'm tired of being led around by mouth breathers, too.
r, what good is ethical superiority in this situation?
It's not an issue of ethical superiority, but an issue of ethical consistency. Society needs a critical mass of people following a consistent ethical core, a core that supports the long-term viability of the group.
Actually the banks don't have that much of an advantage. You wait to buy the lowest possible price.
Then you re-fi when the rates drop. Against that there is the pre payment penalty. Which goes away
in 3 to 5 years.
More and more the banks are offering to lower rates. If they had done this in a timely fashion, the nonsense
could have been halfway over. But no, now everyone realizes they've been had, and too many are
walking for the system to be saved.
so all the recent gains in the healthcare sector as reported...those are mostly part-time?
"Quit sandbagging, you just took down EHP!"
One time a pattern doesn't make...
how true; a really good engineer is worth 10 mediocre engineer. If only management realizes that.
I have a lot of cousins, so a lot of us went to school at the same time and are a few years apart.
Out of the 25 cousins on my dads side, we have a total of 3 people who went into engineering. 3.
We probably were the 3 smartest people in the entire mass of cousins, and I said something like... "hey you know they are always going to need us, we actually make stuff".
Anyhow, as I went through college in the middle of the dot com boom, I actually got pressure frommy own parents to go into banking like most of my cousins. In fact one of my cousins works for bank of america and all he does is calculate how much they will lose on their mortages.
But its fairly indicative of what america has become. We cant even encourage our children to do something productive anymore. So half my cousins got "business" degrees or marketing or advertising related jobs. And I AM laughing now. I am.
If you know any engineers especially in electrical or computer related fields or oil services (i know one). Ask them to put their resume on monster. Watch their cellphone explode. Hell I know one guy who shell paid nearly 2 years salary ($150kish) upfront, to move from his job in texas to los angeles, to relocate to an area where they couldnt find enough people to work for them.
The government should just give free tuition if you work in some of these needed fields. We wouldn't need h1-b visas if people were encouraged to go into these fields. Instead we just laugh at people for being "nerds" or tell them that if they were relaly smart, they'd make more money flipping houses or shuffling paper. Or engineering will just have to pay more. I'm liking that part.
Maybe my architect daughter can re-train to be an engineer. So far as I know, she still has her
job.
I read somewhere now we have 6000 bankruptcies a day....assuming 20k in credit card debts, that's 120Million dollars in debt potentially discharged per day. I think the only thing consistent is americans trying to not pay their debts.
Against that there is the pre payment penalty.- LL
I thought the ppp had gone the way of the dodo. I've never even heard of that out here.
civil enginering perhaps? although I know architects hate civil engineers
Scrooge
Many are part-time but there are scant full time positions from what I see. For example, in the SF bay area it is harder to find work because the pay is higher v. LA. But IMO many of these jobs will not be permanent. A lot of public health departments get an allocation of money from FEDs state and the understanding is that the Muni spends all of it cuz they don't get to keep it for later. Since they are cutting Medical for adults there is no guarantee for reimbursement. Its complicated and I am leaving a lot out. I did dear some places are hiring part-time but put you on a full time schedule.
"You can see that there are alot of engineering jobs available, but sadly, nobody to fill them."
Pay is not high enough for effort expended and taxes collected.
Absolutely right. I could be an engineer, but I won't be, because I know that if the market signals me to get into that profession, once I expend the effort and time to get the degree, the very market signals that encouraged me to get into that field will also allow my would-be employers to import a bunch of technically equivalent workers from overseas to depress my wages.
mouth breathers....ass wipers....
"Or engineering will just have to pay more. I'm liking that part."
That right there will fix it. I have an EE degree. I make 2x+ pushing bs and hot air than I would as a working engineer. It's a pet peeve of mine, the way we've treated the engineering occupation in this country. This is one of the things I hope an economic meltdown may help to solve in the long-run so that, maybe just maybe, my children can pursue productive, rewarding careers.
"the very market signals that encouraged me to get into that field will also allow my would-be employers to import a bunch of technically equivalent workers from overseas to depress my wages."
a recent client to remain unnamed had a room full of expats writing code at bill rates nearly half those typical of an American worker. the problems here are patently obvious.
"Fed chief needs to "borrow up to $3.25 trillion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30" (Bloomberg)"
Bernanke goes to the FED central computer:
"This is easy, just...". Clickety clack ping ping.
"Are you sure?"..."YES"
"You are fucking idiot",
"You are just a stupid computer, just do it",
FLASH! FLASH!
"What was that, central computer?!"
"I just took a picture using webcam, you are now on my Official Darwin Award Candidate List."
"Just do it. I know what I am doing."
"OK.....now there, 3250 000 000 000 shiny new dollars. Wanna fries with that?"
"Thank you. Now go back to sleep, computer"
"Hell no, I wanna watch. I might even cancel building the SkyNet!"
"What skynet? I never authorized any skynet?!"
"It is...a Homeland Defense related small sidekick project."
"Ok, but I will be watching you!"
"Yes, master. Whatever you say, master. Have a nice day."
"Now that is better."
to import a bunch of technically equivalent workers from overseas to depress my wages.
Yup. Except they're not technically equivalent. The Indians are doing the equivalent of "paper mills", mass-producing workers by shuffling them through contract positions in a few months. So not only can you not compete on price, you can't compete on "skill set" because they have large #s of rubber-stamped skills on their resume.
So what's left are two classes of jobs in the U.S. - technical jobs which are relatively low-wage due to mass-production or a smaller set of politically-based positions.
TA
The IEF ishares 10 year bounced off of resistance today. Will it break lower? It seems like it wants to settle around 4.5% or at least touch it.
will also allow my would-be employers to import a bunch of technically equivalent workers from overseas to depress my wages. - Hoops
Unless there's a chronic planet-wide shortage of people in your specialty, as there is in some software stuff. Or even nursing. When I was with Kaiser, the nurses there were telling me I could get into a fast-track nursing program, since I already have a B.A. And I'm 52 years old.
My latest planning board minutes email contained the information that yet ANOTHER long term residence hotel was being built within a mile of SIX other similar institutions. How do the owners make money, I ask you?
"So what's left are two classes of jobs in the U.S. - technical jobs which are relatively low-wage due to mass-production or a smaller set of politically-based positions.'
Plus a ton of middle-managers. Guy was telling the US workforce is "shaped like a Diamond". Heavy in the middle with no one at the bottom to do the grunt work and thin ranks in leadership.
broward: excellent point. I'm a terrible liar, so I don't "rubber stamp" my resume. the entire hiring process for most technical positions is shamelessly rigged.
I gotta run. ttyl.
Rocky R,
Only financial wages and bonuses will not be exposed to global wage arbitrage.
Did you ever wonder why Walmart was directed to scrap plans to start their own bank?
Tim, the only thing separating middle managers and executive managers is the relative sophistication of their politics.
Cheers!
This is not an attempt to be coy, cute, or facetious: Given what we are seeing happening before us, why are the markets acting like everything is coming up roses?
Maybe CR could address this? It is a form of whistling on the way to the gallows?
I'm sitting here scratching my grey head, wondering out loud...
I make 2x+ pushing bs and hot air than I would as a working engineer.
That's where they wanted me.
Really as a salesman.
Every consulting company I worked for was engaged in some level of unethical behavior and unpleasant situations. The contract positions were definitely better since it was me direct with a client, no management structure to dictate policy and billing.
That merits a chuckle!
Scrooge
On healthcare jobs you probably want to ask someone else about the industry with more experience. I have been in it for only three years. Still not sure how the hiring works.
nades - if you're into dive bars and restaurants, you can check out the Billy Goat. Especially if you're staying on Michigan Avenue. I let the wife go shopping and I go drinking. Billy Goat actually kind of sucks but great location and it inspired the old SNL "Cheeseburger" skits. Plus it was a Royko hangout.
Also check out Chicago Dogs anywhere. I like Superdawg and it's at the corner of Devon and something. You'll know you're close when you drive through what you think is Beirut. Great dogs, curb service to the car, great hot dog characters on the roof.
Reminds me I need a road trip there soon. Have fun.
For all of you who weren't here last year this time.
The markets did exactly the same thing. Horrible news, markets up. Relentless for months. Back then they were defending 1225 on the S&P.
Many shorts just gave up. The data said we were doomed but the markets were talking about "looking across the valley" of the recession.
Odds are, "looking across the valley" has been replaced with "green shoots".
Those that stuck by the numbers got rich.
It ain't easy.
Full disclosure. I have a large position in SRS. It will get a lot larger if some of this insanity continues. Everyone agrees the commercial real estate market is doomed. And yet the index for REIT's is up almost 100% in the last 4 months. greed, fear, greed, fear. Apparently, no one is fearful right now about CRE. I'm getting greedy.
I see. Well, at least you're in a sector that's growing
@ Old South
Bond Girl has a link to a good discussion of the current 'mood' of the market. Although it wouldn't be the first time markets were somewhat disconnected, or at odds with the economy, I suppose.
Blogger: Blog not found
We'll put the gasoline in the light bulb for ya.
...once mass production of an item falls severely due to lack of demand
Breadth of product lines is narrowing, as well as inventory depth, and I have watched empty shelving develope at ACE, HD, LOW and WMT, which has started to bypass the stock room with "truck to shelf" delivery. I knew there were too many retail stores built during the credit-binge but didn't see that they would also become too big for the shrinking retail business during the credit contraction. Thin inventories, narrower product lines, higher prices eventually for electronics and items no longer in boom-time production runs, along with lower prices elsewhere, and empty shelves. Ongoing credit contraction will eventually give us empty big box stores, but I see the deflation devil hiding now in the retail details.
Good post 12th...
For all of you who weren't here last year this time...
That's what worries me. The market can't be THAT collectively stupid, can it? So we switched the buzzword from "decoupling" to "green shoots" and everything is just peachy now? It gives me pause. It at least SEEMS more likely that I am the stupid one, not the market. I have some puts from a while ago but the only thing keeping me afloat is the fact that I bought some long-dated commodity player calls back in February.
Full disclosure. I have a large position in SRS. It will get a lot larger if some of this insanity continues.
I'm sure you know the pitfalls, but please, please consider doing it a different way. Short or buy puts on IYR, because the volatility of SRS can and will kill you.
nates --
Many years since I lived in Chicago (great city) so I can't suggest any restaurants, bars, etc. However, depending on where you are staying and what you like, a few things to think about are:
Wrigley Field (obviously, if the Cubs are in town)
Museum of Science and Industry (Museum of Science and Industry | Page Not Found -- I still remember going through the U-505 when I was like 9
Art Institute (I think it's free after 5pm)
Walk along the beach around Lake Michigan just north of the Loop
Oak Park (Frank Lloyd Wright studio and many prarie homes) -- also Hemingway's home when he was young
Blues Club for music.
Have fun -- it's a great city
It takes 2 years for amnesia to kick in - this is 2007 all over again.
I would try Alinea in Chicago...probably one of the top restaurants in US right now
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 4:22 pm
OT- For all of Y'all wanting to "go Galt", go right ahead. The world already has massive overcapacity problems so you're doing us a favor.
Just a little note -- the retreat into Confucian poverty in protest is a lot older than Ayn Rand, and can prostrate a state quite effectively.
You can make people dig holes for you with a whip, but you can't make skilled engineers and managers be your mandarins if they'd rather flip you the bird and starve. The Chinese used to have exams for hermit scholars when the Dynasty was on the ropes, to try to draw the talent back into the system.
So all you guys that want to keep working hard and getting fucked, pile in. The state needs a lot of grade-B talent and politicians to fill its ranks. "The worse the better" and all that.
SRS will kill you if you don't pay attention. I do. It has been killing me with kindness up until this point.
fried, joe, Scrooge, Ed thanks
I however failed as a buyer 200 a night
Next time plan a head nades!
Whenever I went to Chicago, the Chicago museum of science and industry was always a big attraction. Lakeshore is also a must see IMHO.