Vonbek777, the same thing happened to my family in april of this year and I still feel the effects. I havent been the same since. We never get sick and none of us went to the doctor so I don't know if it was the swine flu or not. Great to hear you and your family are doing better!!!!
Dear State of California,
I quit my job last friday (a full time paying position, highly paid), so sadly I won't be able to help you with your impending bankruptcy. I will, however, watch the trainwreck from afar.
Dear Bank of America,
I have closed all my long time accounts. Try charging me for checks now. Good luck making any mortgages/refinances with the increasing interest rates.
Dear Fidelity,
I have cashed out all my 401k/IRA. Good luck trying to push more suckers into bonds from stocks. I hope index funds wipe you off face of the earth.
Dear Chase,
Only integrity stands between me charging the max on all my credit cards, and declaring bankruptcy. That line's getting thin, too. The creditors can't call me if I'm not in United States.
Dear Fed Reserve,
I will be traveling in Asia, with my savings already in a foreign bank account, living comfortably with $7/day food and $400/month rent. Why work when the government steals your labor via the printing press, I ask myself. I'll just come back when hyperinflation prompts the american public to hang you from the statue of liberty.
Yes, I did all of the above (this isn't a copy/paste)
Not to worry, the banks, insure co and auto co have all those trillions. The funds have really just been reprinted for the banks. They just had to get it from someplace first.
I am sure they will be lending most of it to main street soon.
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timmyone (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 7:59 am July 1997: Asian Financial Crisis
September 2001: 9/11.
August 2005: Katrina.
August/September 2009: Bond market crash? California Screaming?
Trust me, this is all very scientific.
Strangely there does seem to be a connection...
Katrina --> Katrina and the Waves (Tsunami of Foreclosures)
Greatest HIT - "walking on sunshine"
CA - A Sunshine State takes a great hit in the Tsunami of foreclosures...
Becomes another Asian financial crisis for China investments...
So to complete the circular logic
We weren't planning on going to the doctor, but when the wee one's fever started racing, doc wanted to check us out. He took swabs and called us back a few days later and said it didn't come back positive so we just had something weird. I had scarlet fever when I was 8 in Germany, remember being so delirious everyone was talking in Looney Tune vocies...but this was far worse than that. I don't wish this on anyone...well maybe a good case or two in D.C.
Considering that our GDP growth rate is less than 1.4% and that $14 Trillion is more than an entire years worth of GDP for USA, the recovery will be very mild and most likely take at least 4 years...if not 8
Any respirator symptoms with the fevers? Glad to learn you and yours pulled through that OK, a temp spike like that is serious stuff (the littles handle it better than the grups, but not that high).
pigged thread recirculation
Comrade Kristina (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 11:12 am
Of course it is possible, for a VERY small percentage of the population. The FACT is roughly 95% of people will remain in the class they were born to for the duration of their lives.
If you don't mind who or what you step on and over on the way up, it's perfectly doable. Every (wo)man for himself! The virtue of selfishness.
CR, I'm not getting the graphs either, just boxes with an "x" in them.
Scone and LIz, even though it only drops me to 8% I figure that number might be a dream mortgage in the not too distant future. My ARM is tied to Libor and I've been watching it slowly inch its way back up...Even though I still have that uneasy feeling that they are still trying to screw me (once bitten twice shy), I'm going to go ahead and take the deal. It gives us more time to save up a DP for a refi in the future as well as build our credit ratings.
Investors in bonds that packaged $62 billion of debt for U.S. offices, hotels and shopping malls are bracing for more loan defaults through 2010 as Bank of America Merrill Lynch says landlords’ monthly payments may jump 20 percent or more.
Principal is coming due on the so-called partial interest- only loans as an 18-month-old recession saps demand for commercial real estate. About $179 billion of such loans were written between 2005 and 2007 and bundled into bonds, according to data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Bondholders Face Losses From Commercial Mortgages (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Any respirator symptoms with the fevers? Glad to learn you and yours pulled through that OK, a temp spike like that is serious stuff (the littles handle it better than the grups, but not that high).
Starting out like stomach flu. We were all vomiting, projectile style. Then that went away and we had massive congestion with fever. We all started getting better, and then the hammer hit, even more congestion, high fever, body aching like I have never felt before. It was so bad, I was afraid to let my mom come to help out, because I didn't want to pass it on. Basically just slept and tried to eat when we were awake. I really thought we might have had the swine flu, but the doctor said our symptoms were worse than the piggy cases going through the area. He said it might have been a flu/viral combination of some sort. Just know I don't want it again.
The FACT is roughly 95% of people will remain in the class they were born to for the duration of their lives.
But I wonder how many try to do something effective to change their "class". For instance, if the majority of middle class citizens are happy with their "station, then that's a huge chunk. And if you add in the people that think winning the lottery is the pathway "up", that'll account for most.
Maybe the loss of equity explains why yields in America are the lowest in the world, which may explain why people will be forced to save versus spend, and maybe if people are losing jobs or unable to increase savings, maybe the loss of $14 Trillion will keep the economy in a state of stagflation... because oil is really ready to go to $100, but too many hedge funds have gone under....
Wow, massive difference between Florida and Oregon. Out here you could get under 4% with good credit. I'm not expecting interest rates to go up radically in the short run, but I can see the hard hit areas, such as Florida and Cali, running high for some time.
Thanks! I don't know if it's inspirational...some might say escapist I just didn't want to feed the beast anymore.
I'll try to post some small details of my travel in Asia, so people can understand what it takes (cost of living/food, visa issues, culture differences, etc)
Well Scone, this is a TARP loan mod, not refi. They go buy debt to income to figure out how much they knock off and hubby is now back to work so that is as low as they can get it. One thing I did notice though is on the actual application they ask for only borrowers income statements and my husband is NOT on the original loan which would make my number much different than using household income as the mortgage company did over the phone. I may get a better deal if they just use my income because tips right now are not great so my mortgage right now accounts for about 70% of my income.
I see, that corresponds with LL comments, that "normal" loans don't exist in her part of Florida. Aren't they ecen doing that USDA rural home loan program? That's a biggie out here. Just a thought.
...keep the economy in a state of stagflation. - DH
That's my take on it. Various forces cancel each other out, economy spins its wheels for years and years, a long boring nasty grind like the '70's.
You are fortunate and I am envious....I am ready to do the splits ville thing myself, the moment the wife gives me the nod. Hell I wanted to leave 5 years ago.
Can people see the graphics OK? I might be swamping the new server ...
Perfectly... and I probably have the worst internet access of anyone here... crappy combo internet/tv cable on rickety half century old telephone poles with squirrels, ice & thunderstorms knocking them out occasionally.
If I get it everyone should get it. I am the last inch of the 'last mile'.
Two Japanese nationals were detained by Italian financial police last week after trying to enter Switzerland with $134 billion worth of undeclared U.S. bonds, mostly Treasury bonds. Japan Today
I wonder if Congress is getting ready to bust Bernanke over the B of A business to make way for Summers. As many poor decisions as Bernake has made, I believe it could be worse, or get worse.
Don't short this market yet. The SPX may keep rallying for another 3 months or 3 years? who knows. pimple faced Geithner & bernanke run the show. Thay are sleezy, yes, but the stock market loves free money. wait till the distribution sets in. then short. We could see the SPX at 1200 -1300 b4 we get a nice bear market again.
Tell your wife she can get maid/servants in Asia for like $200/month....that's a starbucks coffee per day. One person to drive, one person to cook, and one person to clean. Also, cheap massages/nail treatments.
scone, the only thing I was coming up with on the refi was scam artists and more of the same that we've had here. I had one company send me the actual paperwork and the borrowed amount on it was listed at 175K! I was only refinancing 129K and it stated there was no cash out to borrower. Still scratching my head on that deal, needless to say, I ran for the hills. I got a letter from them the other day that my application had been turned down because I failed to provide proof of income, which is fairly funny because I never filled out the paperwork nor returned it to them...
Wow. Florida is almost like another country. I wonder if it's the difference in population, and the large number of older people, attracting bizarro loan companies? Maybe Oregon is too small to bother with.
Don't ruin it for me yet - I still have hope for this admin. Despite Geithner and Summers (whom I despise), I think the administration is doing a bang-up job on most everything else so far, and I am taking a wait and see on most financial stuff. This is chess, not checkers, and it all takes time.
And these guys were handed a load of festering crap with a stinkbomb in the middle by the Bushies.
Shutting down these criminal tax havens (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Isle of Man, Jersey, etc. etc.) should be a top priority of our government.
I would be perfectly willing for our gov't to threaten military action against these criminal enterprises masquerading as sovereigns.
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Shirley Breitmaier’s mortgage payment started out at $98 when she refinanced her three-bedroom home in Galt, California, in 2007. The 73-year-old widow may see it jump to $3,500 a month in two years.
Wow, Speed, thanks for the link on the Japanese nab. According to the US Treasury's TIC data, Japan had $661 billion in Treasury bonds total in Feb 2009. So these guys were carrying the equivalent of a significant proportion of Japan's total foreign reserves in a suitcase. 20% of the total that US Treasury shows. HOLY smokes!!
As per the original topic - I know more than a few folks [ages 35-65] who thought they were made in shade. I can't count the number of folks who told me they were going to retire early... some as early as age 40 from regular everyday jobs based on their 'net worth'... I heard it in dot.com [most of that talk went away with NASDAQ collapse] and then later WRT the RE bubble [also dissipating]. A few can do it who have extraordinary levels of wealth & or good fortune but most all can't.
Besides who is going to do the work if we all 'retire'... forget the money, you can't eat the money - it is, was and will always be about 'the resources'. That first chart really brings this home - we aren't any better off than say 1985 or so... only older.
Me, too! Although that's because I'm a member of the WASS as far as the economy. I don't believe there's anything that would, or will, "fix" the problems, except time. So I'm giving the administration a no-grade on the economy and hoping they don't screw up anything else too badly.
The problem is securitisation, pure and simple. Once the mortgages can be sold on, the bank sits in the middle spinning off loans, it takes the fees, and has no reason to care about how good the loan quality is.
Now the systemic problem underneath this, is that in the previous reserve banking regime, there would only have been 1 loan spun off at any one moment from any given customer's deposits. (Assuming full expansion within the reserve banking system, which i think it's fair to say is usually the case.)
Now - well, as many as you can find borrowers for, and people willing to purchase the resulting loans.
So effectively, the MBS/ABS instruments issued by the banks are now generating increasing amounts of leverage on the entire economy, which at some point won't even be able to sustain the interest payments on this mess, never mind repayments of principle of any kind.
And the politicians - as has been pointed out many times here - see one of the main solutions to this crisis as restarting the securitisation pipeline.
Missed out on the comment thread last night. At the risk of beating a dead horse...
There's been some discussion about how we can improve the signal to noise ratio of the comments here without sacrificing the great chatty pub like atmosphere. What I’m kicking around is the idea of a ‘digest’ view that people can look at as an alternative to the raw stream of comments. The question of course is how to judge what makes it into the digest. Here is a preliminary proposal on how to do it.
We give registered users the right to vote up or categorize comments they deem valuable. We also give them the ability to select a list of other users they trust as good judges of quality. The digest then shows all comments any of those judges voted for.
By default, and when they’re anonymous, a user gets a short list of the most popular judges. To make the selection easier, they can vote on comments in a few threads, and then find users with similar votes.
There are gaming issues for the popular judges, of course, but most of that could be community regulated, and I could also make it harder for people to use sock puppets.
What do you all think? Is this something you would like to see? Do you have alternative suggestions/insights on how something might be implemented?
are those $134B like cash? I mean, if that briefcase were to meet with, you know, an unfortunate, you know, accident... would that actually reduce the liabilities of the USG?
To put it in perspective, Russia's total holdings of US Treasuries per the same source is $130 billion. I'd think that a document for $500 million would be pretty hard to counterfeit as the authorities would be able to check with the Treasury. We're not talking about Ben Franklins here.
Here's something to keep in mind when using the fed's household wealth and GDP data:
Today's GDP and household wealth have a LOT more debt leaning against them!
It's easy to look and feel wealthy when you are spending borrowed money, rather than current earned income. When the debt funded spending is exhausted and the repayments start, that debt won't feel like wealth, it wll feel like debt. I guarantee it.
sdtfs: I'm puzzled by the number of commenters here who are walking away from jobs.
Crisis of faith. I have been watching this for years. The very foundation of an economy built upon the pursuit of 'wealth' through the possession of material crap....is crumbling. Soul searching will take many forms over the next couple of years. Even my father who just recently retired is thinking about selling everything and moving to Palau....
Good luck, Scrooge. My lasting impression of Asia was that the Euros/Americans pay the farang price, and everybody else pays the lower locals price. And that so many of the cities smelled like an interesting combination of odd cooking spices, exhaust fumes, and sewage. More along the coast than inland, for some reason.
It's not greed; life is hard, and you're a stranger. A wealthy stranger, and why shouldn't some of that wealth be share. If you settle into one place and become a local, though, you'll make friends and it'll be all right.
I hate reading Slashdot comments because of moderated comments. The digest idea sounds similar. What you have put together here is perfect, IMO. Users can ignore whomever they choose. That's good enough for me
The slashdot system, eh? It could be great, actually, could keep the flame wars down. But the flip side of a popularity contest is homogenizing the groupthink. Which would be boring.
Of course i wouldn't actually invade Switzerland. I favor a multilateral approach that would outlaw all of these bank secrecy havens; every one of them is a hotbed of money laundering and tax evasion.
But if UBS doesn't pony up those names to the US authorities (their excuse is Swiss criminal law forbids disclosure) then the US should put its full weight on Switzerland to force compliance. Enough is enough.
Japanese: this comes on heels of italian mafia as I recall trying to falslify bonds (or maybe latin america) then trying to us them as collateral for a loan. probably same idea - the Yakuza!
I hate reading Slashdot comments because of moderated comments. The digest idea sounds similar. What you have put together here is perfect, IMO. Users can ignore whomever they choose. That's good enough for me
@Kcoop,
I agree with TCA. The stream of comments/consciousness works best for me. Who are we trying to help, anonymous lurkers? Ignore works great. Serial abusers get banned. You can search for your favorite personalities using the browser Find function.
Scrooge, more power to you. I have a number of expat friends who have done exactly what you are going to do. You will love Singapore and if you are in your thirties, I can't even tell you how you will like "soi cowboy" in Bangkok. Cebu in the Phillipines is also a great place.
The plane down from LAX to San Jose in Costa Rica is loaded with guys who are bailing out of slavery in California. Good luck.
actually I thought there was a certain frisson when the anons could dart in and comment, rather than the current scheme of registered user commentariat
I agree. I know that in the process of downsizing and setting up a migratory lifestyle, I'll learn what tangibles are important to me and what can be discarded. And I'll learn to live with the least rather than the most. I have a feeling I'll treasure the books I'll bring, over the 50 inch LCD TV.
According to Wikipedia, the UST stopped issuing bearer bonds in 1982. I think what happened here is the Japanese govt swapped yen bonds with one of the big domestic multinationals there and the company in question(or embezzling executives) was attempting to stash the US securities. Some kind of collusion between individuals in the Ministry of Finance and private parties. Yakuza involvement, perhaps. Just a guess
"...an economy built upon the pursuit of 'wealth' through the possession of material crap" - V
That's why I moved to Oregon. Very anti-corporate, anti-materialism attitude here. Not everyone, of course, is into it, but it's perfectly o.k. to lead a simple life here. The flip side of that is a certain lack of ambition, locally known as the 'slacker culture.' IMO the pursuit of happiness is where it's at, not the pursuit of money. I'd just like to see Oregon put a bit more energy into the pursuit, rather than just being "laid back" to the point of coma!
"The plane down from LAX to San Jose in Costa Rica is loaded with guys who are bailing out of slavery in California. Good luck. "
Anybody tracking the Costa Rican real estate market? It was going into bubble mode even when I was down there nine years ago -- tracts of land 'way the hell out on the Nicoya Peninsula going for six figures....
All those slackers will be the elderly poor in a few decades... I have no problem with the liberty to be a slacker, fine, just dont expect to take a free ride on entitlement programs and live as well as those who work.... No support for able bodied adults....
Ken,
I think you could get a few volunteers who could simply put a plus or minus next to some posts. Two minuses and the post could be faded to light gray. Three and the text is collapsed out of sight. A plus would negate a minus. Net two pluses and maybe the header could be highlighted. You get the idea. I'd bet that after a few two minuses or a triple minus post even the most egregious would get the hint.
Another unrelated suggestion. A toggle for reverse posting (latest to the top. oldest at the bottom) so I can read more easily from my iPhone while on vacation next week.
That's true in most of southeast Asia. Heck, when I was in pudong, Shanghai, one block from all the name brand shops, the street had garbage all over it, and that smell, fusing with the construction dusts, made it pretty unbearable. Fortunately, most time were spent in air-conditioned malls/restaurants.
We give registered users the right to vote up or categorize comments they deem valuable. We also give them the ability to select a list of other users they trust as good judges of quality. The digest then shows all comments any of those judges voted for.
I don't like this, and I suspect I would be a popular judge, so I don't think I would be left out in the new regime.
I just feel this leads to all kinds of gaming and this is a community of market gamers. I thought the individual ratings sort in CRC was good. I could bubble up the people I really wanted to see, suppress people I didn't want to see, and with 4 or 5 levels of grading, I could be as selective as I wanted to be.
There are gaming issues for the popular judges, of course, but most of that could be community regulated, and I could also make it harder for people to use sock puppets.
I'm not going to turn it into a matter of e-drama, but it seems like an unnecessarily complex approach to me. Is there some reason why we can't have excellent-good-fair-poor back? If there is a reason this won't work, then good enough, but, I think the old individualized rating system was good enough. I think we all know who is an idiot -- to us -- real quick and there's no reason to implement a popularity contest mechanism when individual grading works.
What do you all think? Is this something you would like to see? Do you have alternative suggestions/insights on how something might be implemented?
I think there are three distinct qualities a post can have
Good writing / tone / community -- it's fun and interesting to read. Example: Pavel poetry. Black Star Ranch posting about the cows.
Good economics -- it's informative of the dismal science. Example: Dirk, Ghostfaceinvestah, Basel Too, EvilHenryPaulson.
Good link -- Leads to relevant data and reports. A link digest especially over weekly or monthly time periods, is something I think would be VERY USEFUL, almost to the point of being willing to edit it, God help my soul. This is where a community rating engine might prove useful. If you made an automated tool to crawl them periodically for rot and / or to archive them against rot, that would be especially useful. Example: Dozens go through here every day, never to be seen again.
I have no problem with the liberty to be a slacker- SI
Well, 'slacker' here usually refers to somebody who's working, just not working very hard. The non-workers are called 'bums.' The slacker-ism is more subtle than that-- people just don't take their jobs and businesses very seriously. They show up late, get out early, leave on Friday at 3 p.m. And if it's deer or fishing season, good luck getting anything done. It's not just a hippie thing, it's a good 'ol boy thing, too. Even 'professionals' are like that. There's something about the North West that's very "manana."
it will be interesting to watch the stock of cars on the highway grow shabbier as the years progress
Elmer Fudd,
I remember when it was a big deal when a family in the neighborhood bought a new car. Everybody would come and check out the new ride. It was a once or maybe twice a decade event for families.
I have a feeling Singapore would be the place where I can settle down for a while. Great food from India/China/Malaysia, as well as clean culture and access to Chinese economy.
But my hope is I live next to the Tsukiji fish market in Tokyo After all the fun in Thailand, of course.
I didnt know that there were any 'printed' tbonds any more - buyers just have an account with the fed... that's the way it is on Treasury Direct... I actually have some paper bond that are printed on card stock, I think they were bought at a bank and I inherited them... but they show up on treasury direct too and I could sell them without doing anything with the paper copy...
My advice to the young is to get yourself financtially independent while you are still physically fit... Physical deterioration starts to show up in the 40's and you only go downhill from there... just take a look around at some people who are 10 years older than you to see where you will be then... Once you get past 40 it's a lot harder to get hired into a job too, and if you want to go into business for yourself then you will find out what kind of stamina you still have when you are older...
Whether you are rich or poor, it's always good to have a lot of cash...
Mostly lurker here (my typing skillz suck, so when I do add something I usually am pigged by the time I publish) . I would like to see the companion ability to rate posters myself again.
that helped me when I didn't have time to read all the comments, and would take care of the ignore feature as well.
Thanks Ken
The story has been out for a week. I assume news agencies have seen it - but they haven't reported it. Could be that it's unsubstantiated rumor or they just haven't been able to confirm. It should be a major story that will be buried on the back page.
Thoughts today:
--Dollar down big. Oil/commodities rising. Stocks through the roof. -- suggests inflation/hyperinflation
--Bond markets fluctuating wildly, Implications of the Japanese story may be larger than media realies (counterfitting, or sovereign dumping? yeesh)
--If inflation/hyperinflation, why are treasuries rallying today??
--Equity market acting completely irrational (See financials), unless inflation expectations are going up
--Cali is going to be big.
I have to believe we're getting awfully close to a tipping point. This is either a blowoff top for equities, or a signal of impending dollar collapse IMO. The aggressive peddling of green shoots, manipulation of economic metrics, and obvious government meddling in the markets reeks of panic to me...
I'm beginning to think that the gold/ammo/food hoarding crowd is correct. The thieves are becoming more brazen by the day.
"All those slackers will be the elderly poor in a few decades... I have no problem with the liberty to be a slacker, fine, just dont expect to take a free ride on entitlement programs and live as well as those who work.... No support for able bodied adults...."
As a guy who spent his formative years after college working for a local arm of the old CETA job training program.... I have to say that it really is gov't's job to at least get able-bodied people employable and guide them out into the workforce. Because I saw:
People sinking into a funk in unemployment and basically giving up. Add enough hopelessness and drugs, alcoholism, other crap may follow.
People who just did not have the basics of employment in their brains: you should call in if you can't make it; you should change your underwear; you shouldn't get upset when the boss gives you an order; you shouldn't lie about having done something when you haven't.
People who just couldn't accept that, though they used to be highly paid, they needed to start over as cable-TV installers. Just wouldn't do it. Or couldn't.
You can say it's their problem, they should catch the clue train by themselves. But if they don't, if they never do, they devolve from being useless to being an absolute drag on society or, worse, destructive. And they will not go away, conveniently disappear.
Shadow is right I am 43, but I also work out everyday, go to the gun range, play with the wife, hehe, there are a shit load of over weight 40 pluses in America for sure, make that 40 plus and clueless.
That's why I moved to Oregon. Very anti-corporate, anti-materialism attitude here. Not everyone, of course, is into it, but it's perfectly o.k. to lead a simple life here. The flip side of that is a certain lack of ambition, locally known as the 'slacker culture.' IMO the pursuit of happiness is where it's at, not the pursuit of money. I'd just like to see Oregon put a bit more energy into the pursuit, rather than just being "laid back" to the point of coma!
i.e. Moved to the "artist neighborhood" for all the darling boho atmosphere, have to get rid of the slacker deadbeat actual artists.
Go back to the suburbs, hipster. (<-- quoted from the 12" high letters written on the removable back seat of the jeep wrangler some hipster left sitting out on my street's sidewalk)
Gary, I hate to tell you this but while in switzerland, I was staying with my then fiance, I happend to get into a discussion with her father about what it was like as he was a swiss border guard during WWII. He mentioned that the Germans were always threatening to invade switzerland and boasted that they could put one million troops on their border overnight. The swiss army was only half that size;hence, the going joke in Die Sweitz was that each soldier in the swiss army would only have to shoot twice. Unless you have traveled around switzerland during the summer to be stopped in small villages while the locals carried their automatic weapons for practice against the hillsides and driven by what looks like large mounds of green grass everywhere, which in fact are revetments of concrete housing jet fighters, I don't think you are going to make a credible threat.
Perhaps the anointed one can send them a stern letter in a large bold font to tell them to back off the tax thingie. LMAO.
i.e. Moved to the "artist neighborhood" for all the darling boho atmosphere, have to get rid of the slacker deadbeat actual artists.
Go back to the suburbs, hipster.
.
Nope. I live out in the country with the good ol' boys. You really are consistently wrong, bub, as well as pointlessly rude. Ignore.
"Shadow is right I am 43, but I also work out everyday, go to the gun range, play with the wife, hehe, there are a shit load of over weight 40 pluses in America for sure, make that 40 plus and clueless."
I was in shape all through my 40s. But after 50 -- it starts to hit the fan, at least in my case and in the case of some friends. Less energy, longer recovery, easier weight gain. And your joints start to take vengeance.
I was in shape all through my 40s. But after 50 -- it starts to hit the fan, at least in my case and in the case of some friends. Less energy, longer recovery, easier weight gain. And your joints start to take vengeance.
byz, the problem I had with the CRC approach is that it emphasized the author over the comment. Sometimes people not rated highly come out with something really good, and vice versa. Your description about different qualities is exactly what I was thinking in terms of categories. I might add 'funny' as another one. But maybe it's too geeky/deconstructive to break them out into categories...
nullpointer, TCA, Comrade Coinz, I understand the popularity contest issue. But consider that this is an alternative view, perhaps expressly for anonymous lurkers. There is a lot of value in the unjudged chitchat itself for the community, but there's also great value in some of the stellar comments/scoops/analyses/hilarious posts that appear, and it can get lost when one is skimming quickly. I'd love somehow to solve that problem.
Rob Dawg, good UI suggestion. I bet there are many here that wouldn't like the idea of explicitly blessing a few volunteers though. Also, on your feature suggestion: have you tried using the manual refresh mode on your iphone?
I was always in great shape until my ankles and knees gave out and I could no longer jog or jump around... I'm going to try an elliptical but I wonder how long that will last before my hips give up... The point is - Your real wealth is your time of consciousness - dont waste it...
Too bad I was not that smart when I was in my teens and twenties... But back then, there was not the level of communication there is now - today there are a lot of books and articles for kids to get them on the right path.... My experience is that they wont listen anyway, for the most part....
Here's a pretty good blog post laying out the case for a decades-long bear market coming down the pipe. All of the big spenders (baby boomers) are going to start drawing down their 401ks (i.e.,stocks, bonds) to pay for their retirements.
Agreed about the bubble down there. I went down to partake of the lifestyle and wonder native of the female persuasion. Can't tell you how many times in Tica women and how many Cariocas in Rio have told me...down here we like men.
SI, swimming is great exercise for cardio and musle tone as well as calorie burning. It also is low impact so it won't hurt your joints like jogging/running etc do. I work on my feet and am 42 so I have no intention of staying on my feet after work and going jogging, that is why I swim.
The unemployed are already liquidating their retirement accounts and savings... When that runs out in a few years then they will be desperate... I think it was in the 1980's when ATT did a huge downsizing and a lot of their employees took early retirement, lump sum payouts etc... At the time I had an uncle who was rving full time and he told me about meeting them in campgrounds - they were enjoying their extended vacations but a lot of them did not have enough money to make it to the SS payments or even to live comfortably... Later I met one of them who was trying to start a business with no money... He said things were getting really tight and I said well how much do you actually have now - He said $100 and I about fell out of my chair - My advice was go get the first job you can right now... But of course he was in denial, no way he was going to take a menial job even though he was almost completely broke... couldnt last more than another few days...
I'm going to try an elliptical but I wonder how long that will last before my hips give up..
I'm a big believer in weightlifting-- otherwise you lose lots of muscle as you get older. And often, gain fat. That's the 'skinny legs and big gut' syndrome you see on middle-aged guys. According to what I've read, it's bad for the heart and is associated with diabetes, too.
"I was always in great shape until my ankles and knees gave out and I could no longer jog or jump around... I'm going to try an elliptical but I wonder how long that will last before my hips give up... The point is - Your real wealth is your time of consciousness - dont waste it..."
If that doesn't work for you, check out the water rower; not going to make you into a hunk, but it's the only home cardio machine I ever used that didn't screw up my (sensitive) back. WaterRower Rowing Machine. Rowing Machines of exceptional design, quality and style The other fun thing about it is that it's handsome and stores well in plain sight; you can keep it in the living room and people think it's some odd piece of art furniture.
notafriend_of_uncleben (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:48 pm
kcoop wrote - "I could also make it harder for people to use sock puppets."
OK, I have to ask, what does this mean? Laughing out loud
Person A likes to be popular. Person A.s primary mouth says, "I have the coolest hair in the world."
Person A's alternate account, a "sockpuppet", says, "I agree, A has the coolest hair in the world."
You can conjure a whole Greek chorus of support for you, from you, with this simple trick. If there's a concrete method like voting, it gets even more important / valuable to rig things like this, because you can pump actual scores and not just pat yourself on the back.
rb, no that is id hijacking, sockpuppets are multiple user id's for the same person who have conversations with themselves to give themselves creditiblity...
It's a common internet phenomenon for people to take on multiple personas, to game systems, make a multisided argument, or just express multiple parts of themselves. It's very easy for someone to create multiple accounts - all they need are multiple email addresses, which are plentiful.
But I could at least make it harder, by somehow linking multiple accounts originating from the same IP address. Not perfect, but a small barrier.
I'd rather not do any of this, and frankly, if there are sock puppets in this group, they've caused no harm (and maybe added value).
That was before and I was travelling with friends (married couples to be exact) and girls don't do well in sweltering heat.
And I am not escaping the lifestyle; I'm escaping the government/financial system. Why should I live poorly, even when I am traveling, if I've saved up the means to afford it.
Sometimes people not rated highly come out with something really good, and vice versa.
Ken,
I found that with companion, that if a poster not familiar said something noteworthy someone on your list would call attention to the post. So missing something was not that great of an issue, especially if you had the gray feature on.
Two Japanese nationals were detained by Italian financial police last week after trying to enter Switzerland with $134 billion worth of undeclared U.S. bonds, mostly Treasury bonds.
Japan Today
Speed:
When did they restart issuing U.S. treasury bonds in physical certificate form?
All the bonds we've bought, sold, or traded in the last 15 years have been dematerialized and settled book-entry. (Same goes for stocks, but you can get certificates, if you raise enough hell.)
Physical certificates might be a small clue that the bonds are slightly bogus.
"I'm a big believer in weightlifting-- otherwise you lose lots of muscle as you get older. "
If you can possibly do it, walk. It's even better than swimming, because it's weight-bearing and good for the bones, and unlike running it does less damage to tendons, muscles, joints, in fact, probably none. You can do it gently or aerobically by adjusting pace.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 10:52 am
What we need is the secret chatroom again. Which I was never invited to, but I know it existed because a reliable source told me so.
From a Yahoo Finance article on the drop in UE claims, caught this tidbit on revision to the continuing claims number:
Still, the number of people claiming benefits for more than a week rose 59,000 to more than 6.8 million, the highest on records dating to 1967. The department also revised last week's data on continuing claims, replacing what had been a drop of 15,000 with an increase of 6,000.
That means continuing claims have set records for 19 straight weeks. The data lag initial claims by a week. Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Yup weights are where its at, besides you feel good afterwords, ...I am no gym rat I was during my 20's for sure, but cut back and now its all about maintenance not how much I can lift.
That water rower is a cool looking gadget - there are some that use a cable and a flywheel or magnetic resistance too, and they are easy to stand up against a wall when not in use..... My wife had a stationary bicycle for a while, never really used it, but it served as a nice clothes rack in the bedroom - I told her I would get rid of it and just get her one of those shop racks on casters - could put a lot more clothes on it.... Of course I got the dirty look back for that...
byz, the problem I had with the CRC approach is that it emphasized the author over the comment. Sometimes people not rated highly come out with something really good, and vice versa. Your description about different qualities is exactly what I was thinking in terms of categories. I might add 'funny' as another one. But maybe it's too geeky/deconstructive to break them out into categories...
Maybe! I think the link archive, automatically crawled for rot / archived against rot, is the best idea I expressed. A LOT of data gets linked through here and it is very hard to crawl back and look for it because it's often presented with very little context to search on.
Rob Dawg, good UI suggestion. I bet there are many here that wouldn't like the idea of explicitly blessing a few volunteers though. Also, on your feature suggestion: have you tried using the manual refresh mode on your iphone?
I have to say I would have less that zero interest in having my experience moderated by someone I didn't choose, although the overall UI suggestion is a good one.
ken- great idea. Why don't you do it in your spare time? Hah!
You've been great so far, so whatever you decide is fine. Although if Byz Ruins is willing to work on a digest, let him/her. I'd be willing to follow someone else's top hits when I'm in a hurry. It wouldn't be perfect, but that's what you get when you can't put in the time yourself.
I just joined a gym with all sorts of goodies, and the trainers tell me some sort of combined program, where you change exercises from session to session, is better for older people, because you don't want to tear down muscle through overuse. Evidently, older folks need more recovery time, but they can still add muscle right up to death's door.
I can't tell you how to stay young but I sure as hell can tell you how to get old...hang around old, depressed people who read the obits every morning at the breakfast club and compare prescriptions. Last October I on my sixty sixth birthday, my 36 year old wife and I along with my 34 year old sister in-law and her 66 year old husband left El Tovar at the South Rim of the Grand Canyon, took the first shuttle from to the trailhead of the South Kaibob and down we went to the Phantom Ranch where we had a beer, rested up and then up the Bright Angel to Indian Gardens, another short rest and water (gator aide powder in the camel back), and back up to El Tovar for a big steak that evening. Did it in 12.5 hours. The wife and I have just started our training for this October, going the North Rim on the shuttle, staying overnight and heading out to the North Kaibob trail then down to the Phantom Ranch and back up the Bright Angel on my sixty seventh birthday.
Weight training helps with all sorts of old age ailments. Done correctly, it keeps your joints in good working order by keeping the muscles, tendons, and ligaments healthy.
Perhaps I'd be better off just putting back in author ratings (not published), ala CRC? - ken
IMO individual control is best. My opinion of a good post/bad post should not be forced on the group, and vice versa. Ignore is good enough for me.
As for the quiet lurkers, I don't know. This is rough play. What I find odd is the low number of women posters. I suppose most women don't like the aggression that goes on here. This skews the sample of opinion, unfortunately.
en Scotto (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 11:03 am
so when does Cali start paying it's employees with "cali-bucks" 4 days a month ?
separate state currencies, here we come
You don't understand. Because these are involuntary furloughs these employees are collecting unemployment benefits on their days off.
Do YOGA. I know it hurts its no fun but you will feel so much better and have less stress. Exercise is all about self-improvement and taking some time each day for yourself (sound like a woman ) but it is true.
Yes! I have been thinking about links, and what we can do to improve them. And also about archiving in general, but not the two together. You've just given me a great idea. Thanks!
nodhannum (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 2:02 pm
I can't tell you how to stay young but I sure as hell can tell you how to get old...hang around old, depressed people who read the obits every morning at the breakfast club and compare prescriptions.
Amen! Senescence is real and it can happen to you. You are part of a social species. When you start to feel old, have no job to do, not think very much, have no regular peers you interact with, those are all excellent proxies for being a burden on your troupe. It will kill you.
Could we possibly try a hybrid where people rate posts + / - and then you can filter the posts ala CRC: only >+5, only >0, only >-5? I would tend to think that those who want to ignore users (I have a few on ignore to improve signal to noise) will leave the setting off. Those that want to see everything except truly wasteful comments could set it to some low level and those that are skimming could set it at a high level.
Seems a reasonable solution to me.
By the way, thanks for all you and CR have done for this community. It really is the best place on the web.
This link should work throughout the weekend (if the guy's laptop and server stay up!)
In this type of racing qualifying means very little....Peugeot most likely will be on point (french car...french race) The real race is who stops for fuel first. Typically they go 12-13 laps however the diesels this year (audi/Peugoet) may be able to squeeze an extra lap or so out of a tank. The Pug. has not shown very well in it's pit strategy and they really need to clean that up a bit. They also need to beat Audi in fuel consumption so the real story is who goes the longest into the the first two hours or so. They typically stop about every 45 minutes or so, leave the driver in for about 2 hours. The other issue is who makes the tires last longer...changing tires means longer pit-stop...last year the Pug. spent about 10 more minutes in teh pits than the winning Audi.......
Because these are involuntary furloughs these employees are collecting unemployment benefits on their days off.
So basically it's shifting the budget cuts from the individual agencies to the general unemployment fund?
reminds of how the local school board here encouraged teachers to retire and collect the pension benefits, and then arranges sweetheart deals with other school districts to rehire them. Appears as a cost savings in the annual budget, but it's basically double-dipping in the taxpayer pool.
I'm going to try an elliptical but I wonder how long that will last before my hips give up..
Get a good road bike and ride it hard. The weight will literally fall off of you without destroying your joints. Add a decent weight training regimen and you will be set.
You've been great so far, so whatever you decide is fine. Although if Byz Ruins is willing to work on a digest, let him/her.
Just of the pdf / economic data links! I am willing to put aside a few hours every week to pick over the bot-generated summary of the data and make sure it is as advertised, etc. I would not even want to try to write a summa of the activity on this forum. 1) I'm biased. 2) I ignore a lot of people. 3) I have other projects.
Post of the day would be fun, but doesn't completely address the general problem. There are often many excellent posts in the day. I suppose a different way to characterize this could be 'highlights'?
I really like what you've done so far, but prefer no moderator. That reminds me of days in grade school when people get picked for the volley ball team, or not, by the popular kids.
The unexpected comments are generally more delightful than bad because this site attracts some really smart (not me) and funny (not me) people.
Scrooge McDuck,
There are a lot of very poor people in Asia/South Asia. That is why your dollars will go far there. Kindly spend wisely there so as not to take unfair advantage of anyone's poverty.
Peugeot being political....nothing new there. They need to STFU and race not try to win in a courtroom. I understand what they have said about the Audi but like F1 this year it's an overall interpretation of rules....spirit of them vs. actual rules. It's really the fault of the ACO. for allowing it to happen. Just like the FIA and the whole diffuser BS with F1.....I've given up on that...
Personally, I am against any kind of ratings, moderation, etc.... I am a speed reader, I can usually tell if something is worth reading just scrolling down the page of comments. I don't know why people need the comfort and conformity of moderation...if someone is offensive, don't read it. Someone is too off topic (like I usually am) ignore it. Honestly, why do we want a system that tells us what to read and who. An idiot can have an eureka moment once in a blue moon and post something thought provoking...I don't like denying people that chance. I know personal time is at a premium these days, but comment cliff notes aren't the answer IMHO.
"I just joined a gym with all sorts of goodies, and the trainers tell me some sort of combined program, where you change exercises from session to session, is better for older people, because you don't want to tear down muscle through overuse. Evidently, older folks need more recovery time, but they can still add muscle right up to death's door."
Actually I do yoga and weight training -- neither often enough, but enough to sorta maintain muscles I worked hard for 20 years ago. Weight training tends to tamp you down; yoga tends to stretch you out, and it does wonders for the back. Makes a good combo.
You absolutely should vary your workout; have at least two different ones that you alternate that work different areas of the body more heavily or in different ways.
One of the ways that I protect my joints in my older age is to do a six-second negative (take two seconds to push the weight out, six seconds to lower it back); you can't lift as heavy a weight, but taking six seconds to lower a weight smoothly gives a heck of a pump without wrenching anything. Ask your trainers if it's an issue. If you're of small build, it may not be.
Byzantine_Ruins (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:07 pm
Amen! Senescence is real and it can happen to you. You are part of a social species. When you start to feel old, have no job to do, not think very much, have no regular peers you interact with, those are all excellent proxies for being a burden on your troupe. It will kill you.
Interesting. People with no job to do who don't think very much are going to be coming on the scene in increasing numbers. People who "do" something with their leisure time are still by far the exception not the rule. That's a shame, since we'll be spending so much keeping the monthly checks flowing.
Tim-
me too....it's one of those things that you must go see in person...been trying to drag my dad over but he doesn't want to do the flight..even in biz class. I went 10 year's ago and it can't be beat for atmosphere...it is truly one of about three real races left in the world.
True that. I discovered pilates 8 years ago and yoga 6 years ago. Mainly stick with yoga as my wife is into it, but still appreciate occasional pilates as well.
I'm 35, 5'11" and almost 200 lbs - I put on the muscle weight in my 20s and did damage to my knees and especially shoulders in the process. I wish I had known better 15 years ago.
I could make analogous comments about my finances! In remarkably good shape there these days, but still wish I knew better 15 years ago
Citizen Scotto (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 11:18 am
Because these are involuntary furloughs these employees are collecting unemployment benefits on their days off.
RD: But those benefits are paid by the state, correct? And if the state has no money it has to issue an IOU (i.e. a cali-buck)?
Sorry. No. The UE fund is empty. California is relying upon a zero interest balloon loan due 2011 from the Federal government. By that time the shortfall is expect to reach ~17b. And no, this is ANOTHER $17b not the $17b you have already heard about.
Wow. I'm not that scientific, but I do need more mass. I lost a lot of muscle before the hypothyroidism was diagnosed and treated. I'm not tiny, though: 5' 6 1/2". Hmmm. You know, this is food for thought. I need a more organized program.
If you work out in a gym, wear gloves and carry hand sanitizer along with a towel. Having once worked my way thru college at a gym, it is a great place for germ transmission. Everybody handles the equipment. Poor Vonbek777 and family!
Swimming is often good exercise for older or stressed out joints.
I'm doing a song parody of grandma getting tasered by a Texas Ranger to the tune of Grandma got run over by a reindeer. Hopefully I'll be done soon but here is my preliminary Youtube.
ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 2:22 pm
Interesting. People with no job to do who don't think very much are going to be coming on the scene in increasing numbers.
Just my little observation from watching a lot of old people die -- they'll tend to have cardio problems, early onset dementia, and die early. Once you conclude "I'm done" past a certain age, you are.
Considering what the subprime foreclosure wave did to the financial markets, I wonder how "well capitalized" our banks are when the Option ARM tidal wave hits in 2010-11.
Unubium - I'm sorry WAY OT - but if an element only exists under very special (artifical) conditions for a fraction of a second - IT IS NOT AN ELEMENT.
Those pig ears (bubbles) in CR's chart are largely the result of GS, MS, LEH, MER, BSC & AIG.
Imo, all of the above firms have done this country a huge dis-service. Same with the fed. The fed enabled the above firms to pull off the biggest looting in history.
" scone (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:50 pm
I'm going to try an elliptical but I wonder how long that will last before my hips give up..
I'm a big believer in weightlifting--"
Stick with the weight lifting, and no mor ethan 3 days a week of cardio. In addition to wear and tear on the joints, cardio results in the production of a lot of free radicals, so you'll need to boost your intake of anti-oxidants to compensate. I've never seen an older runner who didn't look haggard.
Good luck,
xxxxx
Health officials unveiled a program Wednesday that will target young women in Los Angeles County by offering home delivery of STD testing kits and a text message to alert them when the results are ready online.
BR, the crazy thing is that many of my contempories resent the fact that I work out and hike. They get a bas case of the "yes but disease" when I suggest that they park the car at the end of the mall and walk when the weather is good or skip the elevator when they can. After the grand canyon trip last october, they said I lied about the hike down to the river and back. It was the easiest twenty bucks I ever made when I showed them the pictures of my honey and I along the trail.
I have a very hard time with the words can't or but. I can respect a I won't but not I can't.
Byzantine_Ruins (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:32 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 2:22 pm
Interesting. People with no job to do who don't think very much are going to be coming on the scene in increasing numbers.
Just my little observation from watching a lot of old people die -- they'll tend to have cardio problems, early onset dementia, and die early. Once you conclude "I'm done" past a certain age, you are.
My grandparents finally had to stop volunteering weekly at the local VA hospital two years ago. They are both in their mid-80s. Both still drive, and they maintain their home. Great-grandmother lived alone with minimal assistance in her own home 50 or so years past her husband's death, finally dying at the ripe old age of 96 after 2-3 years in a nursing home ate away her meager savings. Dirt-poor immigrant farm family that came over on the boat from Germany barely literate. It's also not about education or intelligence. Something far more undefinable.
I'm a bit confused how the pifling amount of money printed by the Fed/Treasury is supposed to make up for 14T$ lost in net worth.
Yes, I'm sure all that stimulus dollars will cause things to recover somewhat, but turn it off and we head right back down. Oh, and California is almost bankrupt.
People are just being fooled by free money flowing into oil and other commodities, and calling it a recovery. It's not. They're buying oil and hiring supertankers to float it in the ocean for crissake.
"We give registered users the right to vote up or categorize comments they deem valuable. We also give them the ability to select a list of other users they trust as good judges of quality. The digest then shows all comments any of those judges voted for."
Grading comments and not commentators is more in the spirit of the conversation. Grading commentators means setting up a hierarchy of contributors. Do you really want to go there?
How about a top ten comments of the day, reported on the following day or as the late night thread..
Wall street ponzi losses = $14 trillion/300 million Americans. (so far!)
And absent fed's monetization, the losses would have been multiples higher. That's a lot of fraud and propaganda. How can any reasonable person buy into Obama and Bernanke's bs that bailing out wall street is going to benefit main street?
Greenspan bailed out wall street numerous times and the results were always the same - the majority got poorer!
One more thought. I see no point in working and paying taxes in order to bail out fraud.
Schwarzenegger threatens to shut down state government:
John Connor: No, no, no, no. You gotta listen to the way people talk. You don't say "affirmative," or some shit like that. You say "no problemo." And if someone comes on to you with an attitude you say "eat me." And if you want to shine them on it's "hasta la vista, baby."
The Terminator: Hasta la vista, baby.
John Connor: Yeah but later, dickwad. And if someone gets upset you say, "chill out"! Or you can do combinations.
The Terminator: Chill out, dickwad.
John Connor: Great! See, you're getting it!
The Terminator: No problemo.
nodhannum (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 2:44 pm
BR, the crazy thing is that many of my contempories resent the fact that I work out and hike. They get a bas case of the "yes but disease" when I suggest that they park the car at the end of the mall and walk when the weather is good or skip the elevator when they can.
It's crazy, and it's not just age!
I went to a doctor's appointment this week. It's the doctor I have gone to all my life, now a couple of small neighborhoods away, probably between a mile and two mile's walk.
The woman taking my blood pressure at check in, when I told her I hadn't been in the waiting room long and had just walked from a couple 'hoods over, so it might be a little elevated, thought I was crazy. "And then you're going to walk back?!?!"
I didn't bother to tell her, no, I was going to walk halfway home, turn a different direction, go down the street, buy a chair, and carry it home. I mean, gosh lady, isn't this a doctor's office? I'm not even in great shape; holy crap, it's like dealing with the flubber people from Wall-E.
first, let me say thanks for all you have done. truly wonderful.
with that said:
hate the digest idea; ignore is bad enough.
slowly, this is turning into the "cool kids" club I'd say 'could turn' instead of 'is turning'.
User pressure is the best control. Rating is third best or fourth. If people would use the Off Thread (OT) label, that would make scanning easier. Also a suggested (and easy) method of quoting a portion of another comment (for context) would also improve the flow - I spend a lot of time just trying to determine if something is new.
That was an interesting take on the experiences in your CETA-funded job. I happen to fall into the category of "retired," but I'm grateful for people who are willing to take on jobs like the one you were doing. At the margins, it probably makes things better. And I do not see any alternative other than re-training.
Robert Kaplan, in "An Empire Wilderness" wrote in several places in his wonderful book about the underclass he found in the U.S. two decades ago. It was not pretty, and of course the numbers have surged since then. Also, the illegitimacy rate for white women has been soaring, which can only add to the mess.
Going into the second decade of this century, this country faces a host of negatives. It will be interesting to see if the hustle and resilience of the people that carried us through in earlier times will be a factor this time around. There's going to have to be a lot of improvisation and inventiveness needed because the usual drivers of recovery—housing and automobiles—are absent.
By the way, in my 70s, I can relate to your comments about what happens physically as one ages.
"Uh, huh. I guess my perception is that Old==haggard, and that you don't get to be old w/o doing 20 min of cardio every other day."
Sometimes haggard=addicted. Got a 40-something neighbor, single female near six-foot-tall, blonde, who jobs, oh, eight miles a day five days a week. She's slim and fit and all that; but without her makeup she looks 20 years older. And she goes to the gym.
She's working it too hard, self-confessed endorphin junkie. In the old days people wore out from hard labor before old age actually got them, and she's going that way. She's the kind who runs through injuries when the doctor orders her not to.
The article in today's NY times about China and commodities says that a lot of the commodities, especially base metals, are being stockpiled and not actually consumed. It says this trend, of course, isn't sustainable. Eventually, to support base metals prices, they will have to be consumed.
I've enjoyed the big run in base metals (DBB) and also miners such as AA and FCX. But I'm starting to feel a bubble in base metals now for the first time. I pulled back half of AA and FCX today. I'm also getting a little queasy about holding oil stocks, and might lighten up there, too, in the days ahead. I'm more bullish long-term on gold, silver and food. Not selling any of those yet.
All signs say the stock market rally is losing steam, and tech is vulnerable. Bought more PSQ today with the proceeds.
TBT came within a whisker of $60 today before pulling back on the auction. It will get back up to $60 and above soon. TBT is a train.
"That was an interesting take on the experiences in your CETA-funded job. I happen to fall into the category of "retired," but I'm grateful for people who are willing to take on jobs like the one you were doing. "
I'm not taking too much credit; I was the public information officer. But I visited every site, talked to every contracting agency, saw what was going on, got all the skinny.
Bob Dobbs, have to agree with you here. I grew up on a farm in NE North Carolina and I got used to chasing pigs that had broken out, shoveling chicken sh*t, picking cotton and walking behind a potato digger all for 40 cents and hour. I don't do the endorfin junkie thing.
My sister in-law is an endorphin junkie extrodinaire, she does as many marathons as she can, does the hill near Rancho Palos Verdes on the CA coast, etc. She hasn't aged much yet (being 34) but she looks way to skinny for me except for her bust. I am an arse man myself. She lost her butt. How sad is that!
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 2:47 pm
Uh, huh. I guess my perception is that Old==haggard, and that you don't get to be old w/o doing 20 min of cardio every other day.
Running is brutal on your body.
Longevity is determined primarily by genetic predisposition. You can abuse yourself into an early grave, but the idea that some regimen of exercise has a particular anagathic effect is mostly specious. Inheritance has much more to do with heart disease than diet or exercise. Sorry.
Gary says, "But if UBS doesn't pony up those names to the US authorities (their excuse is Swiss criminal law forbids disclosure) then the US should put its full weight on Switzerland to force compliance. Enough is enough."
RD says, "I think you could get a few volunteers who could simply put a plus or minus next to some posts. Two minuses and the post could be faded to light gray. Three and the text is collapsed out of sight. A plus would negate a minus. Net two pluses and maybe the header could be highlighted. You get the idea. I'd bet that after a few two minuses or a triple minus post even the most egregious would get the hint."
I like the general idea because I like mind games.
How about add a limited number of votes per person per day, then compile a list of the most prolific negative voters into a 'negative top ten poster list' .
This way you can root out unhappy posters. Maintain purity of thought.
I am much more of a lurker than poster. I really liked CRC and once I adjusted, HCN as well. My preference is for no centralized moderating. The ability to block an author or let him back in myself is one that works well for me, and I suspect for most people. CR and Kcoop can block the worst offenders.
Hell, even my favorite posters here sometimes post drivel and that doesn't mean I won't keep reading them. Sure, the noise signal has gone up, but that comes with the growing popularity of the sight.
That's what you call a heavy flow month . .
Ba-da-bing! First!
Got Pigged!
Vonbek777, the same thing happened to my family in april of this year and I still feel the effects. I havent been the same since. We never get sick and none of us went to the doctor so I don't know if it was the swine flu or not. Great to hear you and your family are doing better!!!!
reverse wealth effect
hyperinflation here we come
I am on strike against the system
Dear State of California,
I quit my job last friday (a full time paying position, highly paid), so sadly I won't be able to help you with your impending bankruptcy. I will, however, watch the trainwreck from afar.
Dear Bank of America,
I have closed all my long time accounts. Try charging me for checks now. Good luck making any mortgages/refinances with the increasing interest rates.
Dear Fidelity,
I have cashed out all my 401k/IRA. Good luck trying to push more suckers into bonds from stocks. I hope index funds wipe you off face of the earth.
Dear Chase,
Only integrity stands between me charging the max on all my credit cards, and declaring bankruptcy. That line's getting thin, too. The creditors can't call me if I'm not in United States.
Dear Fed Reserve,
I will be traveling in Asia, with my savings already in a foreign bank account, living comfortably with $7/day food and $400/month rent. Why work when the government steals your labor via the printing press, I ask myself. I'll just come back when hyperinflation prompts the american public to hang you from the statue of liberty.
Yes, I did all of the above (this isn't a copy/paste)
This is all part of the recovery, RELAX!!
Kristina, take the interest rate and run!!!
This aug might not be so bad, but resets after that--no.
Reverse wealth==poverty???
For some reason, I can't see the pictures/charts. When I click on them, it sends me to a Yahoo page and gives me a "999 error".
Can people see the graphics OK? I might be swamping the new server ...
best to all
Ken - What happened to the graphs? This is the first time I've not been able to see them.
CR - I guess that answers your question!
can't see any graphics, CR, just placeholders.
But the rate of loss is declining. Green chutes! Can't see the charts either
No graphs - just the empty box with a red x in the corner
I can't see the graphs either. I just thought it was my computer because I was having trouble with it this morning.
Not to worry, the banks, insure co and auto co have all those trillions. The funds have really just been reprinted for the banks. They just had to get it from someplace first.
I am sure they will be lending most of it to main street soon.
Me too, just while squares.
Here's what it says:
Sorry, Unable to process request at this time -- error 999.
Unfortunately we are unable to process your request at this time. This error is usually temporary. Please try again later.
If you continue to experience this error, it may be caused by one of the following:
You may want to scan your system for spyware and viruses, as they may interfere with your ability to connect to Yahoo!. For detailed information on spyware and virus protection, please visit the Yahoo! Security Center.
This problem may be due to unusual network activity coming from your Internet Service Provider. We recommend that you report this problem to them.
While this error is usually temporary, if it continues and the above solutions don't resolve your problem, please let us know.
no graphs...
Off Topic - but a reply to previous thread...
timmyone (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 7:59 am July 1997: Asian Financial Crisis
September 2001: 9/11.
August 2005: Katrina.
August/September 2009: Bond market crash? California Screaming?
Trust me, this is all very scientific.
Strangely there does seem to be a connection...
Katrina --> Katrina and the Waves (Tsunami of Foreclosures)
Greatest HIT - "walking on sunshine"
CA - A Sunshine State takes a great hit in the Tsunami of foreclosures...
Becomes another Asian financial crisis for China investments...
So to complete the circular logic
Just wait until 11/9
~miser
@ Comrade Kristina
Congratulations, hon, I know you've put a lot of work into it. 5 years sounds like a good breathing space.
Vok Bek!
Good to see you back! Glad you're feeling better!
Mortgage Debt as % of GDP (last chart in red - indicating blood) = 73-74%.
Now that's a number the USA can be proud of: surely World Class.
30-40% looks like the sustainable number, so either GDP must go up a lot (no reason to expect this), or debt still has a long way to fall.
No graphs here either CR.
Fine on my End Captain CR!...Although I do see Icebergs
@ CR -- no graphs, just title boxes
We weren't planning on going to the doctor, but when the wee one's fever started racing, doc wanted to check us out. He took swabs and called us back a few days later and said it didn't come back positive so we just had something weird. I had scarlet fever when I was 8 in Germany, remember being so delirious everyone was talking in Looney Tune vocies...but this was far worse than that. I don't wish this on anyone...well maybe a good case or two in D.C.
666 error, oops I raptured
Considering that our GDP growth rate is less than 1.4% and that $14 Trillion is more than an entire years worth of GDP for USA, the recovery will be very mild and most likely take at least 4 years...if not 8
IE 8 here, with Vista SP2: charts show just fine.
Vonbek,
Any respirator symptoms with the fevers? Glad to learn you and yours pulled through that OK, a temp spike like that is serious stuff (the littles handle it better than the grups, but not that high).
So it makes sense that the FED would try to replace that with over 12 trillion in printed money. Unfortunately none of it will get into the economy.
I'm running blind and have no graphic package
Patience, grasshoppers:
Lawmakers blast Fed, Treasury, BofA over Merrill
| Reuters
pigged thread recirculation
Comrade Kristina (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 11:12 am
Of course it is possible, for a VERY small percentage of the population. The FACT is roughly 95% of people will remain in the class they were born to for the duration of their lives.
If you don't mind who or what you step on and over on the way up, it's perfectly doable. Every (wo)man for himself! The virtue of selfishness.
I also have IE8 and Vista SP2, but still can't see the charts. I think the server is being overwhelmed...
So, CR, what does this tell us about MEW?
@ Vonbek - sounds horrible, glad you're all better now!
CR, I'm not getting the graphs either, just boxes with an "x" in them.
Scone and LIz, even though it only drops me to 8% I figure that number might be a dream mortgage in the not too distant future. My ARM is tied to Libor and I've been watching it slowly inch its way back up...Even though I still have that uneasy feeling that they are still trying to screw me (once bitten twice shy), I'm going to go ahead and take the deal. It gives us more time to save up a DP for a refi in the future as well as build our credit ratings.
Funny how the 1st Graph resembles a PIG. Question: What happens when homeowner equity hits ZERO?????? Fall of Rome?
Investors in bonds that packaged $62 billion of debt for U.S. offices, hotels and shopping malls are bracing for more loan defaults through 2010 as Bank of America Merrill Lynch says landlords’ monthly payments may jump 20 percent or more.
Principal is coming due on the so-called partial interest- only loans as an 18-month-old recession saps demand for commercial real estate. About $179 billion of such loans were written between 2005 and 2007 and bundled into bonds, according to data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Bondholders Face Losses From Commercial Mortgages (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
I guess I swamped the server. bummer .... I was getting complaints from firewalls that block the old images, so I tried a new system
Oh well ... bring back the old!
best to all
Charts are working for me now CR.
Also getting images now, CR.
Any respirator symptoms with the fevers? Glad to learn you and yours pulled through that OK, a temp spike like that is serious stuff (the littles handle it better than the grups, but not that high).
Starting out like stomach flu. We were all vomiting, projectile style. Then that went away and we had massive congestion with fever. We all started getting better, and then the hammer hit, even more congestion, high fever, body aching like I have never felt before. It was so bad, I was afraid to let my mom come to help out, because I didn't want to pass it on. Basically just slept and tried to eat when we were awake. I really thought we might have had the swine flu, but the doctor said our symptoms were worse than the piggy cases going through the area. He said it might have been a flu/viral combination of some sort. Just know I don't want it again.
@Scrooge,
Good for you.
@CR,
All images broken
Edit, graphs and images working now
The FACT is roughly 95% of people will remain in the class they were born to for the duration of their lives.
But I wonder how many try to do something effective to change their "class". For instance, if the majority of middle class citizens are happy with their "station, then that's a huge chunk. And if you add in the people that think winning the lottery is the pathway "up", that'll account for most.
Maybe the loss of equity explains why yields in America are the lowest in the world, which may explain why people will be forced to save versus spend, and maybe if people are losing jobs or unable to increase savings, maybe the loss of $14 Trillion will keep the economy in a state of stagflation... because oil is really ready to go to $100, but too many hedge funds have gone under....
@ Comrade Kristina
Wow, massive difference between Florida and Oregon. Out here you could get under 4% with good credit. I'm not expecting interest rates to go up radically in the short run, but I can see the hard hit areas, such as Florida and Cali, running high for some time.
Bring on the 30 year auction!....going to be an interesting afternoon
Scrooge. Your story is pretty inspirational. Good for you!
(BB is in the basement of the FED building PRINTING in preparation for the 30 YR auction)
Nice chart..... party like it's 1973, looks like. Only without nearly as much pension income or anticipated pension income.
Charts seem fine now.
How old are you, Scrooge McGalt? And are you a US citizen? Just curious.
Пойти на оставшуюся часть дня, и ура!
Thanks! I don't know if it's inspirational...some might say escapist
I just didn't want to feed the beast anymore.
I'll try to post some small details of my travel in Asia, so people can understand what it takes (cost of living/food, visa issues, culture differences, etc)
Well Scone, this is a TARP loan mod, not refi. They go buy debt to income to figure out how much they knock off and hubby is now back to work so that is as low as they can get it. One thing I did notice though is on the actual application they ask for only borrowers income statements and my husband is NOT on the original loan which would make my number much different than using household income as the mortgage company did over the phone. I may get a better deal if they just use my income because tips right now are not great so my mortgage right now accounts for about 70% of my income.
I'm a US citizen, early 30s.
lived in california most of my life. Fortunate to save up a few bucks here and there, to be able to do this.
Have a ball. You should look up the Duke of Con Dao out there.
@ CK
I see, that corresponds with LL comments, that "normal" loans don't exist in her part of Florida. Aren't they ecen doing that USDA rural home loan program? That's a biggie out here. Just a thought.
...keep the economy in a state of stagflation. - DH
That's my take on it. Various forces cancel each other out, economy spins its wheels for years and years, a long boring nasty grind like the '70's.
You are fortunate and I am envious....I am ready to do the splits ville thing myself, the moment the wife gives me the nod. Hell I wanted to leave 5 years ago.
Can people see the graphics OK? I might be swamping the new server ...
Perfectly... and I probably have the worst internet access of anyone here... crappy combo internet/tv cable on rickety half century old telephone poles with squirrels, ice & thunderstorms knocking them out occasionally.
If I get it everyone should get it. I am the last inch of the 'last mile'.
OT but perhaps relevant:
Two Japanese nationals were detained by Italian financial police last week after trying to enter Switzerland with $134 billion worth of undeclared U.S. bonds, mostly Treasury bonds.
Japan Today
Gary,
I wonder if Congress is getting ready to bust Bernanke over the B of A business to make way for Summers. As many poor decisions as Bernake has made, I believe it could be worse, or get worse.
associated securitization conduits to the woodshed, and making it inevitable that Geithner adjusts the requirements for CMBS TALF part v
good articles ...finance & economics
Don't short this market yet. The SPX may keep rallying for another 3 months or 3 years? who knows. pimple faced Geithner & bernanke run the show. Thay are sleezy, yes, but the stock market loves free money. wait till the distribution sets in. then short. We could see the SPX at 1200 -1300 b4 we get a nice bear market again.
Tell your wife she can get maid/servants in Asia for like $200/month....that's a starbucks coffee per day. One person to drive, one person to cook, and one person to clean. Also, cheap massages/nail treatments.
scone, the only thing I was coming up with on the refi was scam artists and more of the same that we've had here. I had one company send me the actual paperwork and the borrowed amount on it was listed at 175K! I was only refinancing 129K and it stated there was no cash out to borrower. Still scratching my head on that deal, needless to say, I ran for the hills. I got a letter from them the other day that my application had been turned down because I failed to provide proof of income, which is fairly funny because I never filled out the paperwork nor returned it to them...
I see Debt Pigs™.
I switched back to google blogspot ... this is blocked by many companies ... oh well. The new server was swamped
best to all
lol @ RD
CR-
just an idea: why not host images @ hoocoodanode?
if people can see the comments.....
@ CK
Wow. Florida is almost like another country. I wonder if it's the difference in population, and the large number of older people, attracting bizarro loan companies? Maybe Oregon is too small to bother with.
I see Debt Pigs™.
Outstanding Dawg...
Don't ruin it for me yet - I still have hope for this admin. Despite Geithner and Summers (whom I despise), I think the administration is doing a bang-up job on most everything else so far, and I am taking a wait and see on most financial stuff. This is chess, not checkers, and it all takes time.
And these guys were handed a load of festering crap with a stinkbomb in the middle by the Bushies.
Fury as Lloyds closes Cheltenham & Gloucester branches and cuts 1,660 jobs
Fury as Lloyds closes Cheltenham & Gloucester branches and cuts 1,660 jobs |
Business |
guardian.co.uk
Shutting down these criminal tax havens (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Isle of Man, Jersey, etc. etc.) should be a top priority of our government.
I would be perfectly willing for our gov't to threaten military action against these criminal enterprises masquerading as sovereigns.
Talk about ironies... in the previous thread linking to the article : "There Are No Green Shoots"... sorry if someone already caught this but:
PROOF: There Are No "Green Shoots" - The Market Ticker
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Shirley Breitmaier’s mortgage payment started out at $98 when she refinanced her three-bedroom home in Galt, California, in 2007. The 73-year-old widow may see it jump to $3,500 a month in two years.
You can't make this shit up!
"Bank Chief Tells of Pressure to Buy Merrill Lynch"
kenny-boy waterboarded through silk handkerchief
Wow, Speed, thanks for the link on the Japanese nab. According to the US Treasury's TIC data, Japan had $661 billion in Treasury bonds total in Feb 2009. So these guys were carrying the equivalent of a significant proportion of Japan's total foreign reserves in a suitcase. 20% of the total that US Treasury shows. HOLY smokes!!
As per the original topic - I know more than a few folks [ages 35-65] who thought they were made in shade. I can't count the number of folks who told me they were going to retire early... some as early as age 40 from regular everyday jobs based on their 'net worth'... I heard it in dot.com [most of that talk went away with NASDAQ collapse] and then later WRT the RE bubble [also dissipating]. A few can do it who have extraordinary levels of wealth & or good fortune but most all can't.
Besides who is going to do the work if we all 'retire'... forget the money, you can't eat the money - it is, was and will always be about 'the resources'. That first chart really brings this home - we aren't any better off than say 1985 or so... only older.
Nothing really ever changes...
should probably shut down the tax and liability haven known as Delaware first. would be much easier...
Gary (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 12:59 pm
I would be perfectly willing for our gov't to threaten military action against these criminal enterprises masquerading as sovereigns.
I take it you're paying for it?
I still have hope for this admin.
Me, too! Although that's because I'm a member of the WASS as far as the economy. I don't believe there's anything that would, or will, "fix" the problems, except time. So I'm giving the administration a no-grade on the economy and hoping they don't screw up anything else too badly.
RE Japanese: What was their intent? Are they counterfeit? It's an astounding amount.
Byz, that would be the only military adventure to pay for itself.
And i'd certainly be paying my share - I pay every year at the appointed time.
I can't count the number of folks who told me they were going to retire early...
I'm puzzled by the number of commenters here who are walking away from jobs.
Gary,
I'm guessing that's not going to happen. If it hasn't happened yet, there must be some domestic influence against it.
The problem is securitisation, pure and simple. Once the mortgages can be sold on, the bank sits in the middle spinning off loans, it takes the fees, and has no reason to care about how good the loan quality is.
Now the systemic problem underneath this, is that in the previous reserve banking regime, there would only have been 1 loan spun off at any one moment from any given customer's deposits. (Assuming full expansion within the reserve banking system, which i think it's fair to say is usually the case.)
Now - well, as many as you can find borrowers for, and people willing to purchase the resulting loans.
So effectively, the MBS/ABS instruments issued by the banks are now generating increasing amounts of leverage on the entire economy, which at some point won't even be able to sustain the interest payments on this mess, never mind repayments of principle of any kind.
And the politicians - as has been pointed out many times here - see one of the main solutions to this crisis as restarting the securitisation pipeline.
-- w
Right now UBS has the names of 52,000 American account holders / tax cheats that they are refusing to turn over to the US authorities.
Speed (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:04 pm
RE Japanese: What was their intent? Are they counterfeit? It's an astounding amount.
30 Nimitz aircraft carriers.
I would hope it's counterfeit! That's far too much to steal. If it wasn't counterfeit, that's the end of the US dollar right there.
That's one bank, in one tax haven.
Interest Rate ________________ 4-1/4%
High Yield _________________ 4.720%
Allotted at High _____________ 83.46%
Price _____________________ 92.501690
Accrued Interest per $1,000 ___ $3.58016
Median Yield ________________ 4.684%
Low Yield __________________ 4.599%
does anyuone belive that indirect bidders took 49%? Why is it that every new metric that the market focuses on suddenly turns up
Missed out on the comment thread last night. At the risk of beating a dead horse...
There's been some discussion about how we can improve the signal to noise ratio of the comments here without sacrificing the great chatty pub like atmosphere. What I’m kicking around is the idea of a ‘digest’ view that people can look at as an alternative to the raw stream of comments. The question of course is how to judge what makes it into the digest. Here is a preliminary proposal on how to do it.
We give registered users the right to vote up or categorize comments they deem valuable. We also give them the ability to select a list of other users they trust as good judges of quality. The digest then shows all comments any of those judges voted for.
By default, and when they’re anonymous, a user gets a short list of the most popular judges. To make the selection easier, they can vote on comments in a few threads, and then find users with similar votes.
There are gaming issues for the popular judges, of course, but most of that could be community regulated, and I could also make it harder for people to use sock puppets.
What do you all think? Is this something you would like to see? Do you have alternative suggestions/insights on how something might be implemented?
I am not real impressed by those Japanese getting nabbed.$134 Billion may sound like a lot,but how much is that in REAL money?
kcoop-
first, let me say thanks for all you have done. truly wonderful.
with that said:
hate the digest idea; ignore is bad enough.
slowly, this is turning into the "cool kids" club
are those $134B like cash? I mean, if that briefcase were to meet with, you know, an unfortunate, you know, accident... would that actually reduce the liabilities of the USG?
Gary (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:07 pm
That's one bank, in one tax haven.
Yeah, invading Switzerland will definitely pay for itself.
To put it in perspective, Russia's total holdings of US Treasuries per the same source is $130 billion. I'd think that a document for $500 million would be pretty hard to counterfeit as the authorities would be able to check with the Treasury. We're not talking about Ben Franklins here.
CR,
Here's something to keep in mind when using the fed's household wealth and GDP data:
Today's GDP and household wealth have a LOT more debt leaning against them!
It's easy to look and feel wealthy when you are spending borrowed money, rather than current earned income. When the debt funded spending is exhausted and the repayments start, that debt won't feel like wealth, it wll feel like debt. I guarantee it.
sdtfs: I'm puzzled by the number of commenters here who are walking away from jobs.
Crisis of faith. I have been watching this for years. The very foundation of an economy built upon the pursuit of 'wealth' through the possession of material crap....is crumbling. Soul searching will take many forms over the next couple of years. Even my father who just recently retired is thinking about selling everything and moving to Palau....
Good luck, Scrooge. My lasting impression of Asia was that the Euros/Americans pay the farang price, and everybody else pays the lower locals price. And that so many of the cities smelled like an interesting combination of odd cooking spices, exhaust fumes, and sewage. More along the coast than inland, for some reason.
It's not greed; life is hard, and you're a stranger. A wealthy stranger, and why shouldn't some of that wealth be share. If you settle into one place and become a local, though, you'll make friends and it'll be all right.
Another TU graph. What else is new?
I hate reading Slashdot comments because of moderated comments. The digest idea sounds similar. What you have put together here is perfect, IMO. Users can ignore whomever they choose. That's good enough for me
Yeah, invading Switzerland will definitely pay for itself.
Hey, just like Iraq!
Interest Rate ________________ 4-1/4%
High Yield _________________ 4.720%
Allotted at High _____________ 83.46%
Price _____________________ 92.501690
Accrued Interest per $1,000 ___ $3.58016
Median Yield ________________ 4.684%
Low Yield __________________ 4.599%
__________________________Tendered __________ Accepted
Competitive _______________$29,430,275,000 ___ $10,980,344,000
Noncompetitive ____________$19,664,200 __________ $19,664,200
FIMA (Noncompetitive) $0 $0
Subtotal __________________ $29,449,939,200 ___ $11,000,008,200
SOMA ______________________ $116,261,500 ______ $116,261,500
Total _____________________ $29,566,200,700 ___ $11,116,269,700
__________________________Tendered _________ Accepted
Primary Dealer __________ $17,631,500,000 _____ $4,953,403,000
Direct Bidder _____________ $2,967,000,000 ______ $643,000,000
Indirect Bidder ____________ $8,831,775,000 _____ $5,383,941,000
Total Competitive _________ $29,430,275,000 ____ $10,980,344,000
@ kcoop
The slashdot system, eh? It could be great, actually, could keep the flame wars down. But the flip side of a popularity contest is homogenizing the groupthink. Which would be boring.
Of course i wouldn't actually invade Switzerland. I favor a multilateral approach that would outlaw all of these bank secrecy havens; every one of them is a hotbed of money laundering and tax evasion.
But if UBS doesn't pony up those names to the US authorities (their excuse is Swiss criminal law forbids disclosure) then the US should put its full weight on Switzerland to force compliance. Enough is enough.
"It's easy to look and feel wealthy when you are spending borrowed money, rather than current earned income." AS
it will be interesting to watch the stock of cars on the highway grow shabbier as the years progress
Japanese: this comes on heels of italian mafia as I recall trying to falslify bonds (or maybe latin america) then trying to us them as collateral for a loan. probably same idea - the Yakuza!
TCA wrote:
I hate reading Slashdot comments because of moderated comments. The digest idea sounds similar. What you have put together here is perfect, IMO. Users can ignore whomever they choose. That's good enough for me
@Kcoop,
I agree with TCA. The stream of comments/consciousness works best for me. Who are we trying to help, anonymous lurkers? Ignore works great. Serial abusers get banned. You can search for your favorite personalities using the browser Find function.
"Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations."
... which have now been pushed to higher levels than ever. This adds injury to injury.
Scrooge, more power to you. I have a number of expat friends who have done exactly what you are going to do. You will love Singapore and if you are in your thirties, I can't even tell you how you will like "soi cowboy" in Bangkok. Cebu in the Phillipines is also a great place.
The plane down from LAX to San Jose in Costa Rica is loaded with guys who are bailing out of slavery in California. Good luck.
actually I thought there was a certain frisson when the anons could dart in and comment, rather than the current scheme of registered user commentariat
I agree. I know that in the process of downsizing and setting up a migratory lifestyle, I'll learn what tangibles are important to me and what can be discarded. And I'll learn to live with the least rather than the most. I have a feeling I'll treasure the books I'll bring, over the 50 inch LCD TV.
According to Wikipedia, the UST stopped issuing bearer bonds in 1982. I think what happened here is the Japanese govt swapped yen bonds with one of the big domestic multinationals there and the company in question(or embezzling executives) was attempting to stash the US securities. Some kind of collusion between individuals in the Ministry of Finance and private parties. Yakuza involvement, perhaps. Just a guess
"...an economy built upon the pursuit of 'wealth' through the possession of material crap" - V
That's why I moved to Oregon. Very anti-corporate, anti-materialism attitude here. Not everyone, of course, is into it, but it's perfectly o.k. to lead a simple life here. The flip side of that is a certain lack of ambition, locally known as the 'slacker culture.' IMO the pursuit of happiness is where it's at, not the pursuit of money. I'd just like to see Oregon put a bit more energy into the pursuit, rather than just being "laid back" to the point of coma!
"The plane down from LAX to San Jose in Costa Rica is loaded with guys who are bailing out of slavery in California. Good luck. "
Anybody tracking the Costa Rican real estate market? It was going into bubble mode even when I was down there nine years ago -- tracts of land 'way the hell out on the Nicoya Peninsula going for six figures....
"The digest idea"
WWJD (what would Juvi do?)
All those slackers will be the elderly poor in a few decades... I have no problem with the liberty to be a slacker, fine, just dont expect to take a free ride on entitlement programs and live as well as those who work.... No support for able bodied adults....
The plane down from LAX to San Jose in Costa Rica is loaded with guys who are bailing out of slavery in California.
Yeah, I knew of couple of dudes that were "bailing out" to surf in Costa Rica. Then their trust fund checks ran out.
Schwarzenegger threatens to shut down state government
Schwarzenegger threatens to shut down state government - Los Angeles Times
California is truly toast.
Schwarzingrich?
Ken,
I think you could get a few volunteers who could simply put a plus or minus next to some posts. Two minuses and the post could be faded to light gray. Three and the text is collapsed out of sight. A plus would negate a minus. Net two pluses and maybe the header could be highlighted. You get the idea. I'd bet that after a few two minuses or a triple minus post even the most egregious would get the hint.
Another unrelated suggestion. A toggle for reverse posting (latest to the top. oldest at the bottom) so I can read more easily from my iPhone while on vacation next week.
That's true in most of southeast Asia. Heck, when I was in pudong, Shanghai, one block from all the name brand shops, the street had garbage all over it, and that smell, fusing with the construction dusts, made it pretty unbearable. Fortunately, most time were spent in air-conditioned malls/restaurants.
Schwarzenegger threatens to shut down state government
prisons too?
We give registered users the right to vote up or categorize comments they deem valuable. We also give them the ability to select a list of other users they trust as good judges of quality. The digest then shows all comments any of those judges voted for.
I don't like this, and I suspect I would be a popular judge, so I don't think I would be left out in the new regime.
I just feel this leads to all kinds of gaming and this is a community of market gamers. I thought the individual ratings sort in CRC was good. I could bubble up the people I really wanted to see, suppress people I didn't want to see, and with 4 or 5 levels of grading, I could be as selective as I wanted to be.
There are gaming issues for the popular judges, of course, but most of that could be community regulated, and I could also make it harder for people to use sock puppets.
I'm not going to turn it into a matter of e-drama, but it seems like an unnecessarily complex approach to me. Is there some reason why we can't have excellent-good-fair-poor back? If there is a reason this won't work, then good enough, but, I think the old individualized rating system was good enough. I think we all know who is an idiot -- to us -- real quick and there's no reason to implement a popularity contest mechanism when individual grading works.
What do you all think? Is this something you would like to see? Do you have alternative suggestions/insights on how something might be implemented?
I think there are three distinct qualities a post can have
Good writing / tone / community -- it's fun and interesting to read. Example: Pavel poetry. Black Star Ranch posting about the cows.
Good economics -- it's informative of the dismal science. Example: Dirk, Ghostfaceinvestah, Basel Too, EvilHenryPaulson.
Good link -- Leads to relevant data and reports. A link digest especially over weekly or monthly time periods, is something I think would be VERY USEFUL, almost to the point of being willing to edit it, God help my soul. This is where a community rating engine might prove useful. If you made an automated tool to crawl them periodically for rot and / or to archive them against rot, that would be especially useful. Example: Dozens go through here every day, never to be seen again.
Link digest sound like a great idea...
I'm not sure which worries me more about the Japanese smuggling USTs into Switzerland. Which is worse? The bonds are forgeries or they are real?
I have no problem with the liberty to be a slacker- SI
Well, 'slacker' here usually refers to somebody who's working, just not working very hard. The non-workers are called 'bums.' The slacker-ism is more subtle than that-- people just don't take their jobs and businesses very seriously. They show up late, get out early, leave on Friday at 3 p.m. And if it's deer or fishing season, good luck getting anything done. It's not just a hippie thing, it's a good 'ol boy thing, too. Even 'professionals' are like that. There's something about the North West that's very "manana."
it will be interesting to watch the stock of cars on the highway grow shabbier as the years progress
Elmer Fudd,
I remember when it was a big deal when a family in the neighborhood bought a new car. Everybody would come and check out the new ride. It was a once or maybe twice a decade event for families.
I have a feeling Singapore would be the place where I can settle down for a while. Great food from India/China/Malaysia, as well as clean culture and access to Chinese economy.
But my hope is I live next to the Tsukiji fish market in Tokyo
After all the fun in Thailand, of course.
I didnt know that there were any 'printed' tbonds any more - buyers just have an account with the fed... that's the way it is on Treasury Direct... I actually have some paper bond that are printed on card stock, I think they were bought at a bank and I inherited them... but they show up on treasury direct too and I could sell them without doing anything with the paper copy...
They won't let CA shut down. It would be bad PR for the Green Shoots Mega-Rally (GSMR).
There's always the chance that the story itself is not real . . . but I am craving more detail on this. It could be huge.
it will be interesting to watch the stock of cars on the highway grow shabbier as the years progress
=========
this could just be expectation bias, but I've noticed an increased number of cars broken down along the highway this year vs. recent years
My advice to the young is to get yourself financtially independent while you are still physically fit... Physical deterioration starts to show up in the 40's and you only go downhill from there... just take a look around at some people who are 10 years older than you to see where you will be then... Once you get past 40 it's a lot harder to get hired into a job too, and if you want to go into business for yourself then you will find out what kind of stamina you still have when you are older...
Whether you are rich or poor, it's always good to have a lot of cash...
Mostly lurker here (my typing skillz suck, so when I do add something I usually am pigged by the time I publish) . I would like to see the companion ability to rate posters myself again.
that helped me when I didn't have time to read all the comments, and would take care of the ignore feature as well.
Thanks Ken
the long bond is rallying! buy buy buy. Equity retards buy. Cramer said so.
The story has been out for a week. I assume news agencies have seen it - but they haven't reported it. Could be that it's unsubstantiated rumor or they just haven't been able to confirm. It should be a major story that will be buried on the back page.
Thoughts today:
--Dollar down big. Oil/commodities rising. Stocks through the roof. -- suggests inflation/hyperinflation
--Bond markets fluctuating wildly, Implications of the Japanese story may be larger than media realies (counterfitting, or sovereign dumping? yeesh)
--If inflation/hyperinflation, why are treasuries rallying today??
--Equity market acting completely irrational (See financials), unless inflation expectations are going up
--Cali is going to be big.
I have to believe we're getting awfully close to a tipping point. This is either a blowoff top for equities, or a signal of impending dollar collapse IMO. The aggressive peddling of green shoots, manipulation of economic metrics, and obvious government meddling in the markets reeks of panic to me...
I'm beginning to think that the gold/ammo/food hoarding crowd is correct. The thieves are becoming more brazen by the day.
"All those slackers will be the elderly poor in a few decades... I have no problem with the liberty to be a slacker, fine, just dont expect to take a free ride on entitlement programs and live as well as those who work.... No support for able bodied adults...."
As a guy who spent his formative years after college working for a local arm of the old CETA job training program.... I have to say that it really is gov't's job to at least get able-bodied people employable and guide them out into the workforce. Because I saw:
You can say it's their problem, they should catch the clue train by themselves. But if they don't, if they never do, they devolve from being useless to being an absolute drag on society or, worse, destructive. And they will not go away, conveniently disappear.
Shadow is right I am 43, but I also work out everyday, go to the gun range, play with the wife, hehe, there are a shit load of over weight 40 pluses in America for sure, make that 40 plus and clueless.
Scone:
That's why I moved to Oregon. Very anti-corporate, anti-materialism attitude here. Not everyone, of course, is into it, but it's perfectly o.k. to lead a simple life here. The flip side of that is a certain lack of ambition, locally known as the 'slacker culture.' IMO the pursuit of happiness is where it's at, not the pursuit of money. I'd just like to see Oregon put a bit more energy into the pursuit, rather than just being "laid back" to the point of coma!
i.e. Moved to the "artist neighborhood" for all the darling boho atmosphere, have to get rid of the slacker deadbeat actual artists.
Go back to the suburbs, hipster. (<-- quoted from the 12" high letters written on the removable back seat of the jeep wrangler some hipster left sitting out on my street's sidewalk)
Gary, I hate to tell you this but while in switzerland, I was staying with my then fiance, I happend to get into a discussion with her father about what it was like as he was a swiss border guard during WWII. He mentioned that the Germans were always threatening to invade switzerland and boasted that they could put one million troops on their border overnight. The swiss army was only half that size;hence, the going joke in Die Sweitz was that each soldier in the swiss army would only have to shoot twice. Unless you have traveled around switzerland during the summer to be stopped in small villages while the locals carried their automatic weapons for practice against the hillsides and driven by what looks like large mounds of green grass everywhere, which in fact are revetments of concrete housing jet fighters, I don't think you are going to make a credible threat.
Perhaps the anointed one can send them a stern letter in a large bold font to tell them to back off the tax thingie. LMAO.
i.e. Moved to the "artist neighborhood" for all the darling boho atmosphere, have to get rid of the slacker deadbeat actual artists.
Go back to the suburbs, hipster.
.
Nope. I live out in the country with the good ol' boys. You really are consistently wrong, bub, as well as pointlessly rude. Ignore.
"Shadow is right I am 43, but I also work out everyday, go to the gun range, play with the wife, hehe, there are a shit load of over weight 40 pluses in America for sure, make that 40 plus and clueless."
I was in shape all through my 40s. But after 50 -- it starts to hit the fan, at least in my case and in the case of some friends. Less energy, longer recovery, easier weight gain. And your joints start to take vengeance.
Awesome! I feel like I did something right.
I was in shape all through my 40s. But after 50 -- it starts to hit the fan, at least in my case and in the case of some friends. Less energy, longer recovery, easier weight gain. And your joints start to take vengeance.
And beer BD, love the beer hahahah!
byz, the problem I had with the CRC approach is that it emphasized the author over the comment. Sometimes people not rated highly come out with something really good, and vice versa. Your description about different qualities is exactly what I was thinking in terms of categories. I might add 'funny' as another one. But maybe it's too geeky/deconstructive to break them out into categories...
nullpointer, TCA, Comrade Coinz, I understand the popularity contest issue. But consider that this is an alternative view, perhaps expressly for anonymous lurkers. There is a lot of value in the unjudged chitchat itself for the community, but there's also great value in some of the stellar comments/scoops/analyses/hilarious posts that appear, and it can get lost when one is skimming quickly. I'd love somehow to solve that problem.
Rob Dawg, good UI suggestion. I bet there are many here that wouldn't like the idea of explicitly blessing a few volunteers though. Also, on your feature suggestion: have you tried using the manual refresh mode on your iphone?
forget end of summer, the recovery is NOW
Up, up and away, in my beautiful, my beautiful balloon~!
I was always in great shape until my ankles and knees gave out and I could no longer jog or jump around... I'm going to try an elliptical but I wonder how long that will last before my hips give up... The point is - Your real wealth is your time of consciousness - dont waste it...
Too bad I was not that smart when I was in my teens and twenties... But back then, there was not the level of communication there is now - today there are a lot of books and articles for kids to get them on the right path.... My experience is that they wont listen anyway, for the most part....
Here's a pretty good blog post laying out the case for a decades-long bear market coming down the pipe. All of the big spenders (baby boomers) are going to start drawing down their 401ks (i.e.,stocks, bonds) to pay for their retirements.
Baby Boomers: It's All Your Fault - Wealth of Nations Blog - Newsweek.com
China’s Commodity Buying Spree
China Fills Its Pantry With Global Commodities - NY Times
great advice. It's also important to keep training your mind as well. Go deep into your field of expertise. And have lots of (cash, but not dollars)
Agreed about the bubble down there. I went down to partake of the lifestyle and wonder native of the female persuasion. Can't tell you how many times in Tica women and how many Cariocas in Rio have told me...down here we like men.
kcoop wrote - "I could also make it harder for people to use sock puppets."
OK, I have to ask, what does this mean?
SI, swimming is great exercise for cardio and musle tone as well as calorie burning. It also is low impact so it won't hurt your joints like jogging/running etc do. I work on my feet and am 42 so I have no intention of staying on my feet after work and going jogging, that is why I swim.
The unemployed are already liquidating their retirement accounts and savings... When that runs out in a few years then they will be desperate... I think it was in the 1980's when ATT did a huge downsizing and a lot of their employees took early retirement, lump sum payouts etc... At the time I had an uncle who was rving full time and he told me about meeting them in campgrounds - they were enjoying their extended vacations but a lot of them did not have enough money to make it to the SS payments or even to live comfortably... Later I met one of them who was trying to start a business with no money... He said things were getting really tight and I said well how much do you actually have now - He said $100 and I about fell out of my chair - My advice was go get the first job you can right now... But of course he was in denial, no way he was going to take a menial job even though he was almost completely broke... couldnt last more than another few days...
I'm going to try an elliptical but I wonder how long that will last before my hips give up..
I'm a big believer in weightlifting-- otherwise you lose lots of muscle as you get older. And often, gain fat. That's the 'skinny legs and big gut' syndrome you see on middle-aged guys. According to what I've read, it's bad for the heart and is associated with diabetes, too.
"I was always in great shape until my ankles and knees gave out and I could no longer jog or jump around... I'm going to try an elliptical but I wonder how long that will last before my hips give up... The point is - Your real wealth is your time of consciousness - dont waste it..."
If that doesn't work for you, check out the water rower; not going to make you into a hunk, but it's the only home cardio machine I ever used that didn't screw up my (sensitive) back. WaterRower Rowing Machine. Rowing Machines of exceptional design, quality and style The other fun thing about it is that it's handsome and stores well in plain sight; you can keep it in the living room and people think it's some odd piece of art furniture.
Sock Puppeting is when someone make a post under someone else's id name.
notafriend_of_uncleben (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:48 pm
kcoop wrote - "I could also make it harder for people to use sock puppets."
OK, I have to ask, what does this mean? Laughing out loud
Person A likes to be popular. Person A.s primary mouth says, "I have the coolest hair in the world."
Person A's alternate account, a "sockpuppet", says, "I agree, A has the coolest hair in the world."
You can conjure a whole Greek chorus of support for you, from you, with this simple trick. If there's a concrete method like voting, it gets even more important / valuable to rig things like this, because you can pump actual scores and not just pat yourself on the back.
"Fortunately, most time were spent in air-conditioned malls/restaurants"
Hmmmm? So you're going to leave this silly culture and escape to Asia so you can hang out at comfy air-conditioned malls and restaurants?
Watch for social unrest in the Baltic countries - perhaps in near future, then maybe to spread outwards and westwards.
rb, no that is id hijacking, sockpuppets are multiple user id's for the same person who have conversations with themselves to give themselves creditiblity...
kcoop wrote - "I could also make it harder for people to use sock puppets."
OK, I have to ask, what does this mean? -NAFOUB
Sockpuppet (Internet) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Ken,
Leave it be. Let's not get anal here. Judges? Can I put them all on ignore?
What we need is the secret chatroom again. Which I was never invited to, but I know it existed because a reliable source told me so.
It's a common internet phenomenon for people to take on multiple personas, to game systems, make a multisided argument, or just express multiple parts of themselves. It's very easy for someone to create multiple accounts - all they need are multiple email addresses, which are plentiful.
But I could at least make it harder, by somehow linking multiple accounts originating from the same IP address. Not perfect, but a small barrier.
I'd rather not do any of this, and frankly, if there are sock puppets in this group, they've caused no harm (and maybe added value).
That was before
and I was travelling with friends (married couples to be exact) and girls don't do well in sweltering heat.
And I am not escaping the lifestyle; I'm escaping the government/financial system. Why should I live poorly, even when I am traveling, if I've saved up the means to afford it.
So that's what happened to all those pets.com sock puppets..
Sometimes people not rated highly come out with something really good, and vice versa.
Ken,
I found that with companion, that if a poster not familiar said something noteworthy someone on your list would call attention to the post. So missing something was not that great of an issue, especially if you had the gray feature on.
Speed (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 9:49 am
OT but perhaps relevant:
Two Japanese nationals were detained by Italian financial police last week after trying to enter Switzerland with $134 billion worth of undeclared U.S. bonds, mostly Treasury bonds.
Japan Today
Speed:
When did they restart issuing U.S. treasury bonds in physical certificate form?
All the bonds we've bought, sold, or traded in the last 15 years have been dematerialized and settled book-entry. (Same goes for stocks, but you can get certificates, if you raise enough hell.)
Physical certificates might be a small clue that the bonds are slightly bogus.
NW
What is really hilarious is watching a sock puppet forget to change his ID between comments.
"I'm a big believer in weightlifting-- otherwise you lose lots of muscle as you get older. "
If you can possibly do it, walk. It's even better than swimming, because it's weight-bearing and good for the bones, and unlike running it does less damage to tendons, muscles, joints, in fact, probably none. You can do it gently or aerobically by adjusting pace.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 10:52 am
What we need is the secret chatroom again. Which I was never invited to, but I know it existed because a reliable source told me so.
What do you mean existed?
From a Yahoo Finance article on the drop in UE claims, caught this tidbit on revision to the continuing claims number:
Still, the number of people claiming benefits for more than a week rose 59,000 to more than 6.8 million, the highest on records dating to 1967. The department also revised last week's data on continuing claims, replacing what had been a drop of 15,000 with an increase of 6,000.
That means continuing claims have set records for 19 straight weeks. The data lag initial claims by a week.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
LOL!!! Thanks guys/gals. It amazes me what some people will do to be popular.
Yup weights are where its at, besides you feel good afterwords, ...I am no gym rat I was during my 20's for sure, but cut back and now its all about maintenance not how much I can lift.
That water rower is a cool looking gadget - there are some that use a cable and a flywheel or magnetic resistance too, and they are easy to stand up against a wall when not in use..... My wife had a stationary bicycle for a while, never really used it, but it served as a nice clothes rack in the bedroom - I told her I would get rid of it and just get her one of those shop racks on casters - could put a lot more clothes on it.... Of course I got the dirty look back for that...
So far I'm hearing lots of negative, little positive. Of course, the biggest beneficiaries are the quiet lurkers...
Perhaps I'd be better off just putting back in author ratings (not published), ala CRC?
You're welcome...oops, I mean, that wasn't me. Nevermind.
Do your own stress tests with realistic adverse scenarios
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rE6jlKJDn5f4dYdAWvY0YoQ
Do your own stress tests with realistic adverse scenarios
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rE6jlKJDn5f4dYdAWvY0YoQ
RD,
I knew it!
Oh well..
KCoop:
byz, the problem I had with the CRC approach is that it emphasized the author over the comment. Sometimes people not rated highly come out with something really good, and vice versa. Your description about different qualities is exactly what I was thinking in terms of categories. I might add 'funny' as another one. But maybe it's too geeky/deconstructive to break them out into categories...
Maybe! I think the link archive, automatically crawled for rot / archived against rot, is the best idea I expressed. A LOT of data gets linked through here and it is very hard to crawl back and look for it because it's often presented with very little context to search on.
Rob Dawg, good UI suggestion. I bet there are many here that wouldn't like the idea of explicitly blessing a few volunteers though. Also, on your feature suggestion: have you tried using the manual refresh mode on your iphone?
I have to say I would have less that zero interest in having my experience moderated by someone I didn't choose, although the overall UI suggestion is a good one.
ken- great idea. Why don't you do it in your spare time? Hah!
You've been great so far, so whatever you decide is fine. Although if Byz Ruins is willing to work on a digest, let him/her. I'd be willing to follow someone else's top hits when I'm in a hurry. It wouldn't be perfect, but that's what you get when you can't put in the time yourself.
I just joined a gym with all sorts of goodies, and the trainers tell me some sort of combined program, where you change exercises from session to session, is better for older people, because you don't want to tear down muscle through overuse. Evidently, older folks need more recovery time, but they can still add muscle right up to death's door.
I can't tell you how to stay young but I sure as hell can tell you how to get old...hang around old, depressed people who read the obits every morning at the breakfast club and compare prescriptions. Last October I on my sixty sixth birthday, my 36 year old wife and I along with my 34 year old sister in-law and her 66 year old husband left El Tovar at the South Rim of the Grand Canyon, took the first shuttle from to the trailhead of the South Kaibob and down we went to the Phantom Ranch where we had a beer, rested up and then up the Bright Angel to Indian Gardens, another short rest and water (gator aide powder in the camel back), and back up to El Tovar for a big steak that evening. Did it in 12.5 hours. The wife and I have just started our training for this October, going the North Rim on the shuttle, staying overnight and heading out to the North Kaibob trail then down to the Phantom Ranch and back up the Bright Angel on my sixty seventh birthday.
It can be done.
Weight training helps with all sorts of old age ailments. Done correctly, it keeps your joints in good working order by keeping the muscles, tendons, and ligaments healthy.
so when does Cali start paying it's employees with "cali-bucks" 4 days a month ?
separate state currencies, here we come
Perhaps I'd be better off just putting back in author ratings (not published), ala CRC? - ken
IMO individual control is best. My opinion of a good post/bad post should not be forced on the group, and vice versa. Ignore is good enough for me.
As for the quiet lurkers, I don't know. This is rough play. What I find odd is the low number of women posters. I suppose most women don't like the aggression that goes on here. This skews the sample of opinion, unfortunately.
:I just joined a gym with all sorts of goodies,..."
Find an exercise program that won't bore you so that you get stale and stop following it. If you don't enjoy it, you probably won't continue for long.
Ken,
I second the author rating scheme ala CRC - how tough would a hybrid feature be to add - say, once a day a single rec for "Post of the Day?"
en Scotto (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 11:03 am
so when does Cali start paying it's employees with "cali-bucks" 4 days a month ?
separate state currencies, here we come
You don't understand. Because these are involuntary furloughs these employees are collecting unemployment benefits on their days off.
Do YOGA. I know it hurts its no fun but you will feel so much better and have less stress. Exercise is all about self-improvement and taking some time each day for yourself (sound like a woman ) but it is true.
Yes! I have been thinking about links, and what we can do to improve them. And also about archiving in general, but not the two together. You've just given me a great idea. Thanks!
RD,
You remember Jerry Brown's 'psychic bucks'?
nodhannum (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 2:02 pm
I can't tell you how to stay young but I sure as hell can tell you how to get old...hang around old, depressed people who read the obits every morning at the breakfast club and compare prescriptions.
Amen! Senescence is real and it can happen to you. You are part of a social species. When you start to feel old, have no job to do, not think very much, have no regular peers you interact with, those are all excellent proxies for being a burden on your troupe. It will kill you.
kcoop,
Could we possibly try a hybrid where people rate posts + / - and then you can filter the posts ala CRC: only >+5, only >0, only >-5? I would tend to think that those who want to ignore users (I have a few on ignore to improve signal to noise) will leave the setting off. Those that want to see everything except truly wasteful comments could set it to some low level and those that are skimming could set it at a high level.
Seems a reasonable solution to me.
By the way, thanks for all you and CR have done for this community. It really is the best place on the web.
So far I'm hearing lots of negative, little positive. Of course, the biggest beneficiaries are the quiet lurkers...
Perhaps I'd be better off just putting back in author ratings (not published), ala CRC?
As a quiet lurker I would like that the best. that was my favorite feature next to the pink pig.
OT for you petrol heads:
LeMans is this weekend...here is a link to streaming coverage of qualifying, on right now:
sportzone.tk
This link should work throughout the weekend (if the guy's laptop and server stay up!)
In this type of racing qualifying means very little....Peugeot most likely will be on point (french car...french race) The real race is who stops for fuel first. Typically they go 12-13 laps however the diesels this year (audi/Peugoet) may be able to squeeze an extra lap or so out of a tank. The Pug. has not shown very well in it's pit strategy and they really need to clean that up a bit. They also need to beat Audi in fuel consumption so the real story is who goes the longest into the the first two hours or so. They typically stop about every 45 minutes or so, leave the driver in for about 2 hours. The other issue is who makes the tires last longer...changing tires means longer pit-stop...last year the Pug. spent about 10 more minutes in teh pits than the winning Audi.......
Enjoy
Speed TV has live coverage in the states.
Ciao
MS
Pilates and yoga are where it's at. Strength and flexibility. Who needs extra mass?
And if your pilates instructor insists on weights and gimmicks as part of the class, find another teacher.
Because these are involuntary furloughs these employees are collecting unemployment benefits on their days off.
So basically it's shifting the budget cuts from the individual agencies to the general unemployment fund?
reminds of how the local school board here encouraged teachers to retire and collect the pension benefits, and then arranges sweetheart deals with other school districts to rehire them. Appears as a cost savings in the annual budget, but it's basically double-dipping in the taxpayer pool.
Thank you to Ken and CR for one of the best economics blogs on the web.
Thanks!
I'm going to try an elliptical but I wonder how long that will last before my hips give up..
Get a good road bike and ride it hard. The weight will literally fall off of you without destroying your joints. Add a decent weight training regimen and you will be set.
Hey MS
whats up with that Peug/Audi spa?
Gary
true why build mass when age already add that. Flexibility is what you need to maintain ROM and prevent injury.
Volcker says slump easing.
Bloomberg News
sdtfs (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 2:01 pm
You've been great so far, so whatever you decide is fine. Although if Byz Ruins is willing to work on a digest, let him/her.
Just of the pdf / economic data links! I am willing to put aside a few hours every week to pick over the bot-generated summary of the data and make sure it is as advertised, etc. I would not even want to try to write a summa of the activity on this forum. 1) I'm biased. 2) I ignore a lot of people. 3) I have other projects.
I think the state is out of Smoke and mirrors. Know a teacher Columbia grad 30 years late 50's will be laid off in Sept.
Post of the day would be fun, but doesn't completely address the general problem. There are often many excellent posts in the day. I suppose a different way to characterize this could be 'highlights'?
Kcoop:
I really like what you've done so far, but prefer no moderator. That reminds me of days in grade school when people get picked for the volley ball team, or not, by the popular kids.
The unexpected comments are generally more delightful than bad because this site attracts some really smart (not me) and funny (not me) people.
Scrooge McDuck,
There are a lot of very poor people in Asia/South Asia. That is why your dollars will go far there. Kindly spend wisely there so as not to take unfair advantage of anyone's poverty.
I'm going to try an elliptical but I wonder how long that will last before my hips give up..
How about swiming? There is senior hours Ia m sure if you are self conscious
Peugeot being political....nothing new there. They need to STFU and race not try to win in a courtroom. I understand what they have said about the Audi but like F1 this year it's an overall interpretation of rules....spirit of them vs. actual rules. It's really the fault of the ACO. for allowing it to happen. Just like the FIA and the whole diffuser BS with F1.....I've given up on that...
Ciao
MS
You could do a top ten with the more popular knocking out the lower rated as the day went on. you could even do a top 5, 10 and 20 posts.
I went John Galt 3 years and 3 months ago. Off the hamster wheel and the Fed not making a dime from me.
Thanks always liked Le Mans better.
Because these are involuntary furloughs these employees are collecting unemployment benefits on their days off.
=====
RD: But those benefits are paid by the state, correct? And if the state has no money it has to issue an IOU (i.e. a cali-buck)?
Kcoop,
An open bar, unlimited tab would be nice, but I am a dreamer.
Volker - He said that the sudden drop in economic activity last fall is slowing and "a healing process in the financial markets is underway".
"A strong recovery typical of most recessions seems unlikely. Rather, it is going to be a long slog"
Not a rosy picture, unless you're a banker.
Personally, I am against any kind of ratings, moderation, etc.... I am a speed reader, I can usually tell if something is worth reading just scrolling down the page of comments. I don't know why people need the comfort and conformity of moderation...if someone is offensive, don't read it. Someone is too off topic (like I usually am) ignore it. Honestly, why do we want a system that tells us what to read and who. An idiot can have an eureka moment once in a blue moon and post something thought provoking...I don't like denying people that chance. I know personal time is at a premium these days, but comment cliff notes aren't the answer IMHO.
I just feel this leads to all kinds of gaming and this is a community of market gamers
I feel like I'm at a Federal Reserve board meeting and everyone is trying to tweak the economy to "improve it".
"I just joined a gym with all sorts of goodies, and the trainers tell me some sort of combined program, where you change exercises from session to session, is better for older people, because you don't want to tear down muscle through overuse. Evidently, older folks need more recovery time, but they can still add muscle right up to death's door."
Actually I do yoga and weight training -- neither often enough, but enough to sorta maintain muscles I worked hard for 20 years ago. Weight training tends to tamp you down; yoga tends to stretch you out, and it does wonders for the back. Makes a good combo.
You absolutely should vary your workout; have at least two different ones that you alternate that work different areas of the body more heavily or in different ways.
One of the ways that I protect my joints in my older age is to do a six-second negative (take two seconds to push the weight out, six seconds to lower it back); you can't lift as heavy a weight, but taking six seconds to lower a weight smoothly gives a heck of a pump without wrenching anything. Ask your trainers if it's an issue. If you're of small build, it may not be.
Byzantine_Ruins (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:07 pm
Amen! Senescence is real and it can happen to you. You are part of a social species. When you start to feel old, have no job to do, not think very much, have no regular peers you interact with, those are all excellent proxies for being a burden on your troupe. It will kill you.
Interesting. People with no job to do who don't think very much are going to be coming on the scene in increasing numbers. People who "do" something with their leisure time are still by far the exception not the rule. That's a shame, since we'll be spending so much keeping the monthly checks flowing.
For exercise, dancing around the living room to good music is a lot of fun. Watch out about tripping over the dog, cat and laughing kid.
And, geez, live long enough and the definition of everything changes. Sock puppets used to be cute little things to play with.
Oh, and about CR's charts ... asset value is temporary but debt is forever. Nyaah. Would that pass the moderator?
Tim-
me too....it's one of those things that you must go see in person...been trying to drag my dad over but he doesn't want to do the flight..even in biz class. I went 10 year's ago and it can't be beat for atmosphere...it is truly one of about three real races left in the world.
Ciao
MS
True that. I discovered pilates 8 years ago and yoga 6 years ago. Mainly stick with yoga as my wife is into it, but still appreciate occasional pilates as well.
I'm 35, 5'11" and almost 200 lbs - I put on the muscle weight in my 20s and did damage to my knees and especially shoulders in the process. I wish I had known better 15 years ago.
I could make analogous comments about my finances! In remarkably good shape there these days, but still wish I knew better 15 years ago
"Volker - He said that the sudden drop in economic activity last fall is slowing and "a healing process in the financial markets is underway"."
The same day that Bloomberg TV is telling the general public to watch out for massive foreclosures from alt-A loans starting next year!
American Idle.
Citizen Scotto (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 11:18 am
Because these are involuntary furloughs these employees are collecting unemployment benefits on their days off.
RD: But those benefits are paid by the state, correct? And if the state has no money it has to issue an IOU (i.e. a cali-buck)?
Sorry. No. The UE fund is empty. California is relying upon a zero interest balloon loan due 2011 from the Federal government. By that time the shortfall is expect to reach ~17b. And no, this is ANOTHER $17b not the $17b you have already heard about.
@ mp -- thanks. I wonder what the audience reaction to Volcker's speech was?
I'd like to hear Conjure's reaction.
"I wonder what the audience reaction to Volcker's speech was?"
I don't know. If they were anything like this group, they're probably saying that Volcker, like Krugman, is a fool or a tool.
healing process in the financial markets is underway
Well, that's all that matters, according to Treasury/Fed/Wall St. revolving door.
Sorry. No. The UE fund is empty.
====
Rob - you have lost me. If the state is out of FRNs, and is not going to issue IOUs, then are they just going to ignore the UE claims?
Volker said a strong recovery is unlikely and that we face a long slog. I agree with both of those views. I wish he was running Treasury.
@ Bob Dobbs
Wow. I'm not that scientific, but I do need more mass. I lost a lot of muscle before the hypothyroidism was diagnosed and treated. I'm not tiny, though: 5' 6 1/2". Hmmm. You know, this is food for thought. I need a more organized program.
As a Californian, I am proud to say "We're so broke.", as I shake my head in dismay before toddling back to work.
"I'd like to hear Conjure's reaction."
Conjure thinks we may be seeing a nascent recovery.
they're probably saying that Volcker, like Krugman, is a fool or a tool.
My exact thought was "Volcker's already been draining of credibility by Vampire Geithner".
My $0.02.
Keep it rock-simple. Have a link next to each post that says "recommend" or "thumbs up". (Only for registered users.)
Have a counter indicating how many recommendations each post got.
Have a way to find highly-recommended comments quickly.
That's it. Yeah some sock puppets will rec up their own comments. Eventually you will notice, disable the account, they will get bored and go away.
Anything more complicated will have a higher complexity/effectiveness (i.e. cost/benefit) ratio.
Under no circumstances adopt any ideas from Slashdot.
If you work out in a gym, wear gloves and carry hand sanitizer along with a towel. Having once worked my way thru college at a gym, it is a great place for germ transmission. Everybody handles the equipment. Poor Vonbek777 and family!
Swimming is often good exercise for older or stressed out joints.
But I still love to dance. It is more creative.
Sex is great exercise also, 3 or 4 times a week heck you will look like Al Bundy...hahaha!
Sorry had to.
Have a good day.
I'm doing a song parody of grandma getting tasered by a Texas Ranger to the tune of Grandma got run over by a reindeer. Hopefully I'll be done soon but here is my preliminary Youtube.
Grandma Got Tasered By a Ranger
YouTube - Grandma Got Tasered By a Texas Ranger
Nemo,
You described the reddit.com system, though they also have a vote down (-1). Better than slashdot and better than digg.
"I wish he was running Treasury."
I would prefer someone with no GS or Fed history, but Volker would be the best of a bad lot.
Amen, Shill.
I walk to my car.
California
We are so broke, that at Christmas, all we could exchange was glances.
We're so broke, just to rub two nickels together, we'd have to borrow one.
ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 2:22 pm
Interesting. People with no job to do who don't think very much are going to be coming on the scene in increasing numbers.
Just my little observation from watching a lot of old people die -- they'll tend to have cardio problems, early onset dementia, and die early. Once you conclude "I'm done" past a certain age, you are.
Conjure thinks we may be seeing a nascent recovery.
You mispelled "transient".
Scrooge: "married couples.. and girls"
Fair enough! The malls and the A/C all make sense now. For some reason, girls and "smell of poo" do not mix
Blackhalo wrote:
I would prefer someone with no GS or Fed history, but Volker would be the best of a bad lot.
Yes and yes.
Conjure thinks we may be seeing a nascent recovery
A "long slog" recovery or a "happy dance" recovery?
Thanks, mp and Conjure.
i used to press F5 ...
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 11:32 am I walk to my car
--reworked__
We're so broke, just to rub two nickels together, we'd have to borrow three.
"But I still love to dance. It is more creative."
LOL. Not that there is anything wrong with that...
I just got to say "thank god" for elevators or I would have to walk 2 floors down to get to it.
new element, Ununbium, atomic number 112
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
My friends ask me how much money does it take to retire at fifty. My answer is I will know when it's over.
Considering what the subprime foreclosure wave did to the financial markets, I wonder how "well capitalized" our banks are when the Option ARM tidal wave hits in 2010-11.
Unubium - I'm sorry WAY OT - but if an element only exists under very special (artifical) conditions for a fraction of a second - IT IS NOT AN ELEMENT.
I would prefer someone with no GS or Fed history.
Those pig ears (bubbles) in CR's chart are largely the result of GS, MS, LEH, MER, BSC & AIG.
Imo, all of the above firms have done this country a huge dis-service. Same with the fed. The fed enabled the above firms to pull off the biggest looting in history.
And now the fed is making us pay for it twice.
I just got to say "thank god" for elevators or I would have to walk 2 floors down to get to it. - nova
I'm shocked. And here I had you pegged as some sort of Rambo-type survivalist. Seriously.
" scone (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:50 pm
I'm going to try an elliptical but I wonder how long that will last before my hips give up..
I'm a big believer in weightlifting--"
Stick with the weight lifting, and no mor ethan 3 days a week of cardio. In addition to wear and tear on the joints, cardio results in the production of a lot of free radicals, so you'll need to boost your intake of anti-oxidants to compensate. I've never seen an older runner who didn't look haggard.
Good luck,
xxxxx
apologize if its been posted:
Barney Frank walks out on CNBC interview over executive pay questions.
Breitbart.tv » ‘This Interview is Over’: Barney Frank Walks Off Live CNBC Interview on Executive Pay
Things are bumpy in Cali:
Health officials unveiled a program Wednesday that will target young women in Los Angeles County by offering home delivery of STD testing kits and a text message to alert them when the results are ready online.
full frank interview:
Breitbart.tv » Full Interview: Barney Frank Walks Off Live CNBC Discussion on Executive Pay
BR, the crazy thing is that many of my contempories resent the fact that I work out and hike. They get a bas case of the "yes but disease" when I suggest that they park the car at the end of the mall and walk when the weather is good or skip the elevator when they can. After the grand canyon trip last october, they said I lied about the hike down to the river and back. It was the easiest twenty bucks I ever made when I showed them the pictures of my honey and I along the trail.
I have a very hard time with the words can't or but. I can respect a I won't but not I can't.
Byzantine_Ruins (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:32 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 2:22 pm
Interesting. People with no job to do who don't think very much are going to be coming on the scene in increasing numbers.
Just my little observation from watching a lot of old people die -- they'll tend to have cardio problems, early onset dementia, and die early. Once you conclude "I'm done" past a certain age, you are.
My grandparents finally had to stop volunteering weekly at the local VA hospital two years ago. They are both in their mid-80s. Both still drive, and they maintain their home. Great-grandmother lived alone with minimal assistance in her own home 50 or so years past her husband's death, finally dying at the ripe old age of 96 after 2-3 years in a nursing home ate away her meager savings. Dirt-poor immigrant farm family that came over on the boat from Germany barely literate. It's also not about education or intelligence. Something far more undefinable.
the crazy thing is that many of my contempories resent the fact that I work out and hike.
I think your contemporaries resent your wife
I'm a bit confused how the pifling amount of money printed by the Fed/Treasury is supposed to make up for 14T$ lost in net worth.
Yes, I'm sure all that stimulus dollars will cause things to recover somewhat, but turn it off and we head right back down. Oh, and California is almost bankrupt.
People are just being fooled by free money flowing into oil and other commodities, and calling it a recovery. It's not. They're buying oil and hiring supertankers to float it in the ocean for crissake.
See my post on green shoots at: Comment by blahger from thread 'Update: What is a Depression?'
kcoop says,
"We give registered users the right to vote up or categorize comments they deem valuable. We also give them the ability to select a list of other users they trust as good judges of quality. The digest then shows all comments any of those judges voted for."
Grading comments and not commentators is more in the spirit of the conversation. Grading commentators means setting up a hierarchy of contributors. Do you really want to go there?
How about a top ten comments of the day, reported on the following day or as the late night thread..
"I've never seen an older runner who didn't look haggard."
Uh, huh. I guess my perception is that Old==haggard, and that you don't get to be old w/o doing 20 min of cardio every other day.
Wall street ponzi losses = $14 trillion/300 million Americans. (so far!)
And absent fed's monetization, the losses would have been multiples higher. That's a lot of fraud and propaganda. How can any reasonable person buy into Obama and Bernanke's bs that bailing out wall street is going to benefit main street?
Greenspan bailed out wall street numerous times and the results were always the same - the majority got poorer!
One more thought. I see no point in working and paying taxes in order to bail out fraud.
Ponzi debt must end!!!!!!!!
Schwarzenegger threatens to shut down state government:
John Connor: No, no, no, no. You gotta listen to the way people talk. You don't say "affirmative," or some shit like that. You say "no problemo." And if someone comes on to you with an attitude you say "eat me." And if you want to shine them on it's "hasta la vista, baby."
The Terminator: Hasta la vista, baby.
John Connor: Yeah but later, dickwad. And if someone gets upset you say, "chill out"! Or you can do combinations.
The Terminator: Chill out, dickwad.
John Connor: Great! See, you're getting it!
The Terminator: No problemo.
Too bad this doesn't work in Sacramento.
Scone,
I am a natural. I don't need to workout.
The Terminator: Chill out, dickwad.
California can have the world's first audio currrency - paper that talks to you!
Floor is rotten. S&P went through 951
How about a top ten comments of the day, reported on the following day or as the late night thread
Ah, but then you would lose the fun of the "Can someone summarize?" posts!
nodhannum (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 2:44 pm
BR, the crazy thing is that many of my contempories resent the fact that I work out and hike. They get a bas case of the "yes but disease" when I suggest that they park the car at the end of the mall and walk when the weather is good or skip the elevator when they can.
It's crazy, and it's not just age!
I went to a doctor's appointment this week. It's the doctor I have gone to all my life, now a couple of small neighborhoods away, probably between a mile and two mile's walk.
The woman taking my blood pressure at check in, when I told her I hadn't been in the waiting room long and had just walked from a couple 'hoods over, so it might be a little elevated, thought I was crazy. "And then you're going to walk back?!?!"
I didn't bother to tell her, no, I was going to walk halfway home, turn a different direction, go down the street, buy a chair, and carry it home. I mean, gosh lady, isn't this a doctor's office? I'm not even in great shape; holy crap, it's like dealing with the flubber people from Wall-E.
Oil closes close to $73 a bbl
Gas up another nickel.
Kcoop,
On second thought, if there was a digest I would definitely read it.
Angry
Remember this photo? This was when the first bailout passed
They are laughing to YOU!
http://whatreallyhappened.com/IMAGES/bailgasm.jpg
I and many other feel your anger.
I try being against something before i can be for it.
from nullpointer
kcoop-
first, let me say thanks for all you have done. truly wonderful.
with that said:
hate the digest idea; ignore is bad enough.
slowly, this is turning into the "cool kids" club I'd say 'could turn' instead of 'is turning'.
User pressure is the best control. Rating is third best or fourth. If people would use the Off Thread (OT) label, that would make scanning easier. Also a suggested (and easy) method of quoting a portion of another comment (for context) would also improve the flow - I spend a lot of time just trying to determine if something is new.
Bob Dobbs:
That was an interesting take on the experiences in your CETA-funded job. I happen to fall into the category of "retired," but I'm grateful for people who are willing to take on jobs like the one you were doing. At the margins, it probably makes things better. And I do not see any alternative other than re-training.
Robert Kaplan, in "An Empire Wilderness" wrote in several places in his wonderful book about the underclass he found in the U.S. two decades ago. It was not pretty, and of course the numbers have surged since then. Also, the illegitimacy rate for white women has been soaring, which can only add to the mess.
Going into the second decade of this century, this country faces a host of negatives. It will be interesting to see if the hustle and resilience of the people that carried us through in earlier times will be a factor this time around. There's going to have to be a lot of improvisation and inventiveness needed because the usual drivers of recovery—housing and automobiles—are absent.
By the way, in my 70s, I can relate to your comments about what happens physically as one ages.
"Uh, huh. I guess my perception is that Old==haggard, and that you don't get to be old w/o doing 20 min of cardio every other day."
Sometimes haggard=addicted. Got a 40-something neighbor, single female near six-foot-tall, blonde, who jobs, oh, eight miles a day five days a week. She's slim and fit and all that; but without her makeup she looks 20 years older. And she goes to the gym.
She's working it too hard, self-confessed endorphin junkie. In the old days people wore out from hard labor before old age actually got them, and she's going that way. She's the kind who runs through injuries when the doctor orders her not to.
The article in today's NY times about China and commodities says that a lot of the commodities, especially base metals, are being stockpiled and not actually consumed. It says this trend, of course, isn't sustainable. Eventually, to support base metals prices, they will have to be consumed.
I've enjoyed the big run in base metals (DBB) and also miners such as AA and FCX. But I'm starting to feel a bubble in base metals now for the first time. I pulled back half of AA and FCX today. I'm also getting a little queasy about holding oil stocks, and might lighten up there, too, in the days ahead. I'm more bullish long-term on gold, silver and food. Not selling any of those yet.
All signs say the stock market rally is losing steam, and tech is vulnerable. Bought more PSQ today with the proceeds.
TBT came within a whisker of $60 today before pulling back on the auction. It will get back up to $60 and above soon. TBT is a train.
"That was an interesting take on the experiences in your CETA-funded job. I happen to fall into the category of "retired," but I'm grateful for people who are willing to take on jobs like the one you were doing. "
I'm not taking too much credit; I was the public information officer. But I visited every site, talked to every contracting agency, saw what was going on, got all the skinny.
I can get the graphs ok, I'll e-mail them out o those on my list
Bob Dobbs, have to agree with you here. I grew up on a farm in NE North Carolina and I got used to chasing pigs that had broken out, shoveling chicken sh*t, picking cotton and walking behind a potato digger all for 40 cents and hour. I don't do the endorfin junkie thing.
My sister in-law is an endorphin junkie extrodinaire, she does as many marathons as she can, does the hill near Rancho Palos Verdes on the CA coast, etc. She hasn't aged much yet (being 34) but she looks way to skinny for me except for her bust. I am an arse man myself. She lost her butt. How sad is that!
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 2:47 pm
Uh, huh. I guess my perception is that Old==haggard, and that you don't get to be old w/o doing 20 min of cardio every other day.
Running is brutal on your body.
Longevity is determined primarily by genetic predisposition. You can abuse yourself into an early grave, but the idea that some regimen of exercise has a particular anagathic effect is mostly specious. Inheritance has much more to do with heart disease than diet or exercise. Sorry.
Gary says, "But if UBS doesn't pony up those names to the US authorities (their excuse is Swiss criminal law forbids disclosure) then the US should put its full weight on Switzerland to force compliance. Enough is enough."
Who do you think is hiding money in Switzerland?
RD says, "I think you could get a few volunteers who could simply put a plus or minus next to some posts. Two minuses and the post could be faded to light gray. Three and the text is collapsed out of sight. A plus would negate a minus. Net two pluses and maybe the header could be highlighted. You get the idea. I'd bet that after a few two minuses or a triple minus post even the most egregious would get the hint."
I like the general idea because I like mind games.
How about add a limited number of votes per person per day, then compile a list of the most prolific negative voters into a 'negative top ten poster list' .
This way you can root out unhappy posters. Maintain purity of thought.
Slippery slope.
I am much more of a lurker than poster. I really liked CRC and once I adjusted, HCN as well. My preference is for no centralized moderating. The ability to block an author or let him back in myself is one that works well for me, and I suspect for most people. CR and Kcoop can block the worst offenders.
Hell, even my favorite posters here sometimes post drivel and that doesn't mean I won't keep reading them. Sure, the noise signal has gone up, but that comes with the growing popularity of the sight.