RealtyTrac: Foreclosure Activity May Hit 1.8 Million by Mid-Year
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 06/10/2009 - 11:00pm (93 comments)
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At 3 am I deserve this.
Yes, and you did while Nemo is in the house!
OT - CR is again crashing Firefox on Fedora 10 when loading secondary ads,
/usr/lib/firefox-3.0.10/run-mozilla.sh: line 131: 4469 Segmentation fault "$prog" ${1+"$@"}
Seems to be the secondary loadings, IE the ad's etc. I can work around it, just irritating.
Also OT:
CR, do you sleep at all?
Wow, Hawaii jumped up to 15, a %397.56 increase from last year.
I would never have guessed that reading the local news, but REO's are still a small percentage of properties for sale. The major impact is still short sales from what I can see as an outsider. (Mostly because the RA's are moaning about them and don't know how to work them, you know too much actual work).
"The NODs are already spiking (most of the moratoriums have ended), but it takes awhile for this to lead to repossessions and REOs."
Can anyone explain the chart below?
Countrywide Foreclosures (REO) Blog
(from the Bloomie article)Homes in foreclosure totaled 3.85 percent of all loans in the quarter, up from 2.47 percent a year earlier, MBA said.
I think that means about 1 in 26 of all homes with mortgages is in foreclosure?
And that would not include shadow inventory, or REO listings, or moratorium queuing, or understaffing in people to process the foreclosures.
Balance Sheets Worsen
“The numbers are getting bigger and that’s what is bothering me,” said Patrick Newport, economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “You have banks holding these toxic loans, which means bank balance sheets are in even worse shape with the increase in delinquencies.”
Another still, small voice inside the financial Swarzschild radius.
the grind goes on, mostly out of view from the swamp
here, the best of times are terrible and have been since the administration of Millard Fillmore
Casa Grande Valley Newspapers Inc.
"We've been told [by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] that there are thousands and thousands of foreclosures in the pipeline," said Darrah Dremler, an agent with Coldwell Banker Excel Realty who specializes in foreclosure sales. "Banks are starting to price things a lot lower to clean out their inventory before this big rush hits."
"I need help. My current performance in real estate sales is not enough to live. If I have created any broken promises, or missed communication, with you or anyone you know I am committed to clearing it up. If we have ever had issues, then call, let's get complete! If you would be proud to work with me, it is essential for my survival that when real estate comes up that you boldly speak to recommend me. That will make a real difference in the way my life goes, as I help people who must be buying or selling."
Actual opening paragraph of a full page ad taken out in local newspaper earlier this year, by a local realtor (high end coastal SoCal).
He goes on to explain that he is now specializing in foreclosure sales, with FHA financing, "friends can co-sign to qualify".
He will e-mail not-on-the-market-yet foreclosure lists.
Walter - NODs
That is an interesting link, thanks for posting it.
You asked a very good question, it seems like they have either burned through a large amount of the properties, or a lot have been taken off the market due to problems with the foreclosure process.
Somehow my gut tells me its the second path.
late night doom in the twilight of an aching empire....
so goes california so goes america... yeh yeh yeh...
sportsfan,
Thanks for the reply re: TARP funds. I still don't get what the whole "live to fight another day"... I doubt SCOTUS will ever hear another TARP case again...
steinly : he wrote--"I need help."
I second that. He's needs help and then some. No, what he needs to do is take up welding or some other semi-skilled trade. Maybe he's from Arkansas.
NervousRex -
"We've been told [by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] that there are thousands and thousands of foreclosures in the pipeline,"
I'm sorry I can't believe this, my real lie tor told me not to worry and now is the time to buy. //SNARK//
Kauai_ -- fair enough! That's what I get for quoting a Realtor™
you dont want to be priced out at such low prices....
steinly - "I need help"
Is there an email address I can nuke, I mean inquire to?
OT- Anyone know if it's possible to send a message if the member's name isn't on the comment boards? I was thinking of giving rsj a head's up about the article volker linked to last thread. I think she'd appreciate the story tremendously.
NervousRex - fair enough! That's what I get for quoting a Realtor™
Please note the snark, I'm slowly learning to do that. An old dog can learn new tricks, it just takes time.
Does anybody track foreclosure information by stage?
It's ridiculous to consider NOD's, Trustee Sales, and REO all as one number.
For example, am I wrong in assuming that 123 Main Street can be counted once with an intial NOD, then counted again on a subsequent NOD, then counted again with notice of sale, then again as REO? That doesn't make 1.8 million properties in foreclosure over 6 months, that makes it more like 450,000 properties (if each property were counted 4 times on its way through the process). It would be so much more meaningful to compare the number of 90-day, 180-day, notice of sale, and REO as separate trends. It would make it clearer to see the coming waves from earlier stages.
Folk, the posted article is the harbinger of predictions CR, Mish, Yves, Denninger, et.al. made years ago. We'll watch this circus happen in plain sight, if you don't flinch.
I'm not much of a predictor as recent experience has proved. But this may well be far worse than the most dour amongst us have suggested.
Here in the swamp, things grind on. I sell advertising. I create commerce. I am the captain of my ship. I am in charge of my destiny. There is no man nor no thing to hinder me as I march resolutely up my private thirteen steps.
Lurking Larry -dy track foreclosure information by stage?
I have been trying to do that on Oahu, Hawaii using reality track, to very little success.
I am not going to pay to get the full info, and often some going into auction disappear, I don't know if they are resolved or just not listed on the market and sold to someone's cousin.
But it seems around 1/3 are moving from NOD to auction, the real breakdown is from auction to REO listings. Some just disappear, and never hit the local MLS and without a tax record number I can not track them.
I might get more obsessed the closer I come to buying a single family home.
sdtfs: I'm gratified to know there's at least one person left who hasn't put me on the ignore list.
FWIW, this is drop dead, roll on the floor funny. Read the dead pan police narrative on pages 3 and 4.
Now...Go Break The Windows - June 9, 2009
volker the viking -
As I said before, that's not funny, ROTFLMAO.
Incidentally, I too am an incident commander. Goes a long way toward picking up babes in bars.
im just curious... is there other sites you guys or gals reccommend NOT for the blog itself... but for the comments. sometimes i find alot of interesting info or stories in the comments. lately been going here, mish, zero hedge and marketwatch mainly. any that im missing?
The Incident Commander is the person responsible for all aspects of an emergency response; including quickly developing incident objectives, managing all incident operations, application of resources as well as responsibility for all persons involved.
Heckuva job there, Brownie!
May God have mercy on our souls.
Sometimes the big picture is interesting, but not in this class.
Usually I read the rants, but do not engage.
volker the viking
Incidentally, I too am an incident commander.
Usually I'm the guy swimming through the swamp to get away.
forgot about big picture... somehow that site has dropped from my radar the past couple months.... anyway, for peanut gallery fun i reccomend a drive by glance at marketwatch comments.. that place is a zoo!
I read Karl but not the comments (he reminds me of the uncle you hope won't show up at the next family reunion), same for Mish (they're a bit too stuffy), but this is my home.
Every home needs an incident commander.
bleh - that place is a zoo!
Yea, which was what the last whole comment thread was about. How to keep it real, but not turn into a zoo, a lot of good people would get turned off and not come back.
I like reading Mish, he challenges my crystallized mindset. But rarely do I even bother reading the comments.
How bullish would you be about your favorite stock after seeing an offer price of $300, a last of $200, and a bid at $100 ? Many of the zips I follow show home per-square-foot prices similar to those for 1) average listing prices, 2) average sale prices over 6-12 months, and 3) recent sales over 3 months. Redfin shows the well-concealed reality of the collapse in selected areas, such as here, recently at $80/sq ft: 227 Via Firenza, Rancho Mirage, CA 92270
CR has the 'family' feel of the financial blogs seems to me.. so many long time regulars. yeah denninger and mish i like...hahah im beginning to be that family relative that nobody wants to talk to... not because im stuffy, but because i keep reminding them the collapse has just begun!
bleh: Some are called to preach, others to teach and the rest to evangelize. You are preaching to the choir, teaching the educated, and evangelizing the believers.
Give that some thought, O!, here's some marbles to fill your mouth. Hie thee to a coastline and roar at the surf.
peAk - How bullish
I'm not a perma bear, but bullish only hits my mouth with 'knife catchers', even more so with real estate in most locations.
In general I think there is still a ways down, and then it will go sideways for a many years. You know when your close to the bottom when someone talks about buying a place and everyone laughs.
Then at least you know you can buy with no unrealistic expectations.
volker the viking -
I would prefer to be the gagfly and learn when there is something to learn, preach nothing but question everything.
What was those last words. "I drank what?" - Societies?
As everyone by now knows, I am famously wrong on every count.
My number for a bottom is S&P $150.00.
Honey, We Need to Talk-
Oh, you mean its just a mess of retirement planning:
honey-we-need-talk: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance
I have read statistical reports that made more sense, talk about a bunch of percentages and not conclusions, advice, or even directions hinted at.
At least I'm not the only one dazed and confused, and now increasingly irritated.
If you're the Kauai Kahuna, why are you looking on Oahu? And which part of the island?
P.S. It's gadfly
V V: I think your 15 minutes of fame is coming up, about 3 years from now.
Hooray! Another not ignoring the volker!
A fame I look not forward to and hope to never know.
sdtfs-
If you're the Kauai Kahuna, why are you looking on Oahu? And which part of the island?
P.S. It's gadfly
Grew up on Kauai, but the jobs, money are on Oahu. But I do not forget where I came from. Right now I live in Mililani, in the middle of the Island.
gagfly - gadfly, you have not read many of my postings have you?
But really, yes that was a typo.
"Hie thee to a coastline and roar at the surf."
im mostly a lurker, much what can be said, somebody else has already said or ranted.
Volker: I was traveling (moving to California!) and missed your prediction? Whatever it was you'd be hard-pressed to enter the ranks of the ignored. I save that for people who insult CR.
Been looking for the phase chart for Lurking Larry, or the data or anything.
Closest is for California and out of date.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/MiscPublic/May+2008+CA+Foreclosure+Report+-+Chart.jpg
It's some form of deja vu -- I'm sure CR has posted this exact thing before, but having timezone problems and nodding off. Keep a stiff upper lip.
Now that we live here I can say "Get your assets to Mars!" whenever the Gubernator comes on.
Volker,
Hey a straight out reply so you know there is no ignoring here ...
Yes like you I read Karl and Mish and Yves and a few others but as you said this is home. It isn't always easy to know how I spent my spare time before I spent it reading the commentariat here ....
NervousRex -
Now that we live here I can say "Get your assets to Mars!" whenever the Gubernator comes on.
OK, must be a local joke, I followed you up to there. Is that a take off on that implanted memory vacation film? Total Recall, without goggle I would be senile.
Added - That chart does not match with the news I hear, something is just a little off. It just does not match with the whole green shoots thing.
A little more recent, breaks up NOD, Trustee, and Sales.
http://ww1.prweb.com/prfiles/2009/04/14/287782/Mar09ForeclosureActivity.jpg
from
Foreclosure Notices Soar, Foreclosure Sales Drop
But it's old and I don't know if the data are reliable. YMMV.
In other news:
RIGA, June 11 (Reuters) - The Latvian lat flirted with the top of its trading band against the euro on Thursday morning, raising expectations the central bank would intervene and help unlock frozen money markets.
UPDATE 1-Latvia currency trades near c.bank intervention rate - Forbes.com
The European Central Bank stepped in on Wednesday to help avert a Baltic financial crisis by lending €3bn to the central bank in Sweden, whose banks dominate the region’s financial sector.
FT.com / Europe - ECB lends €3bn to Swedish bank
Mr. Kahuna, yes a distorted Total Recall reference, it sounds better with a slight Austrian accent. In my head. Oops!
Green Shorts.
Green Toots.
Green Shoots.
Here's the frequency of the phrase "green shoots" from 1980 to now:
"green shoots" - Google News Archive Search
and "goldilocks economy"
"goldilocks economy" - Google News Archive Search
Suprising, to me, for both.
NervousRex -
Just wondering if I was missing something, happens to me all the time here.
The green shoots I can understand, "goldilocks economy" is surprising. Maybe some codeword from the fringe.
hmm, good eats on, time to check out mentally for a while. Priorities you know.
Nicely tuned high tension level in today's threads. I just put in email and phone alerts for "gold up $50", "silver up $1.00", "oil over $75", and I expect callbacks.
2 Japanese stopped in Italy with $134 billion of T-bills in a suitcase.
That can't be a good sign.
Mr. Kahuna: re: goldilocks economy (GE). I was just being too clever by half, GE was a phrase emitted frequently by people like Larry Kudlow during the second Bush term. On GE television.
News from China: Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
May exports fell by a record 26.4 percent from the same month of 2008, while imports were down 25.2 percent, the customs agency reported Thursday.
...
Exports to the 27-nation European Union, China's biggest foreign market, plunged by 41.3 percent to $17.3 billion, narrowing the trade surplus with Europe by 39.3 percent from the same month last year to $7.7 billion.
surrounded in the text by some green shoots interviews, etc.,
NervousRex - Mr. Kahuna:
Please any time I hear Mr or Sir. I look over my shoulder for my father, and it's real creepy because he's been dead over a decade. I picked this handle because it is relaxed and easygoing.
Totally OT: but LoL: kind of old but if you have not seen it.
Robin Williams - Bush & Obama
YouTube - Robin Williams - Bush & Obama - we are most amused, london
Have a good night or morning all, I don't know anyone in the good afternoon zones.
Good post on Mish's site how the raise in interest rates have almost frozen the mortgage market. Pretty sad when 5.75% mortgages can do that.
Pretty sad when 5.75% mortgages can do that.
It will unfreeze after house prices fall another 20%.
But freeze-up again at 6.5%
It's been chilly for some time.
Goldilocks: term coined by Art Cshin when interviewed on CNBC. "Goldilocks is ready to eat some poridge but has an upset stomach" A running gag.
Bondholders Face Commercial Mortgage Losses as Principal Is Due
A similar type of loan fueled the U.S. residential housing boom, allowing people to borrow more than they could afford as they assumed home prices would keep going up. The collapse of the subprime mortgage market, which led to almost $1.5 trillion in losses since the start of 2007 at banks and financial companies worldwide, was triggered in part when owners defaulted as their payments rose.
Interest-only loans raised concerns “as an example of excessively aggressive underwriting during 2006 and 2007,” said Kent Born, senior managing director at PPM America, an investment manager in Chicago. “But commercial real estate fundamentals were good, and there was a huge demand for these bonds.”
" June 11, 2009
Chinese exports plummeted by a record 26.4 percent in May from the year-ago period, according to a Customs Bureau statement posted June 11. Imports were down 25.2 percent for the month, while the trade surplus was at $13.4 billion, Bloomberg reported."
Gooood mooorning mary-nam!
Looks like the phase of Qualitative Easing on the board may have passed.
C
Re: Japanese with $134B of T-bills...
Pretty funny stuff... were they trying to sell them or just stash them in some hidden bank account somewhere? Or by next week will they be something like $75B worth of t-bills?
Ah... stupid dehydrated mouth keeping me awake... g'night
Oh and California... on a path to District of Colombia Greater Western?
A very good article on nationalized health care.
How should Obama reform health care? : The New Yorker
"I like reading Mish, he challenges my crystallized mindset"
Mish is a broken record and seems to believe you argue against someone's ideas by insulting them.
Great day for a long bond issue.
Commodity currencies spiking, Aso cheers Nikki touching 10,000, HK on a tear but having a minor rest, pesky Asian aggregate (MXAP and SAX) clearly not getting with the green shoots so maybe the weighting is all wrong, China's fixed asset investment also on a roll so forget the export plunge that's SO this business cycle, Asian and US futures kermit. Wow, even the BRICs are going to play with funny money and go with SDR bonds.
The future is bright. Put away your torches and pitchforks. Go long. There is plenty of opium to go around.
C
Mish is a broken record and seems to believe you argue against someone's ideas by insulting them.
I like some of the things Mish has to say, but whenever he goes off on an "abolish the fed" rant, I change the channel.
Why is this story NOT getting any play in MSM in America or England??
$134 Billion In U.S. Bonds found on 2 Japanese trying to get into Switzerland:
(See official Italian financial police report in comments.)
$134 Billion In U.S. Bonds found on 2 Japanese trying to get into Switzerland
The market in Southern California has gotten bizarre. In the nicer areas, there is almost nothing on the market that is reasonably priced even in relation to current comps.
The forthcoming REOs are almost mythic.
I keep looking for signs of either a new wave of REO listings or a massive number of REOs taken back sitting on the sidelines.. I dont see it. Banks assign REOs to either property preservation companies or agents to get them through pre-list (Cash for Keys / Eviction, trash out, pricing) and on the MLS. I just don't hear any chatter from people bragging about thew new REO they were assigned or see any indication from some of the sites I monitor. There is a steady trickle but I don't see a big wave at all.
There are also agents who list all the REOs assigned to them on their websites, Leo Nordine is one of them and I haven't seen him have a larger number of listings than usual:
Nordine Realtors Residential Inventory
"Why is this story NOT getting any play in MSM in America or England??"
........$134-billion in Treasuries - false-bottomed suitcases - authentic documentation.........one HELL of a drug deal or much more clandestine. How could a Country try and "pawn off" that much weight and get anything close to value for it?........Wait........"value for it"......US dollars...........nevermind..........
LOL exactly BSR,
That map is bloody.....good luck California, your going to need it.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/SjCdB0PB5vI/AAAAAAAADNk/HheQHfSYOZ0/s1600-h/Realtytrac+May.jpg
....seriously........why didn't they just use a couple wheelbarrows?.........I'm sorry, I haven't had coffee..........I couldn't resist.
"The state's revenues from personal income taxes tumbled by 39.3 percent in May from a year earlier while revenues from corporate taxes fell by 52.1 percent and revenues from sales taxes sagged by 7.6 percent, according to a report released by Chiang's office."
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
How do personal income taxes drop 40%? Was capital gains really that big of a slice of personal income? Or did everyone just get mad at refunds being delayed and so everyone decreased their witholdings on their paycheck?
shill - and ruin a perfectly good day? In which confidence is critical to price and yield, that TPTB know what they're doing, there's long term capacity to pay, the market is transparent and every actor cooperates in the spirit required to ultimately remold the syste..
Aha.
C
Oil May Top $250, Says Gazprom CEO
Oil May Top $250, Says Gazprom CEO - Oil and Gas * Energy * News * Story - CNBC.com
"....combination of all of above?"
......that's what finally prompted us to leave SoCal - the joke for state government - totally irresponsible. In regards to "decreasing withholdings", why would ANYONE in their right mind give the State Gov. any EXTRA money thru payroll withholding? That's like giving it to ME!
Kauai-
Right on cue, NC has a post on the oil market...
On the "Endless Bid" for Oil « naked capitalism
initial claims -601k, dn 21k retail sales up 0.5. Looks like kermit numbers, esp the 4wk avg dn over 10k on inital claims
...."only" 600K - does it tell us how many refrigerators were empty this past week?
Dirk - NAS elmo as at 8:15 EST. Others barely kermit.
Ok, off to the swamp. Trade well.
C
....talked with the next door neighbor yesterday - a single gal with 2-kids 5 & 7, no job, no food, no money, behind on car and house payments, hubby moved out about a year ago - REAL sad stuff.........bet she doesn't think the "only 601K" is good news....but then I'm a small thinker......time for milking.......later......
This is a great article: Daring Trade Has Wall Street Seething (possibly subscription).
Basic outline:
1) small brokerage in Texas finds a company with distressed bonds, $29 million face value
2) sells CDS to a bunch of Wall Street banks, in excess of $130 million notional, at 80-90 cents on the dollar
3) brokerage pays another firm to buy up the $29 million in bonds and pay them off in full
4) keeps the 85 cents * 130 million upfront payments.
Nice hand sir, well played.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 8:13 am
$134-billion in Treasuries - false-bottomed suitcases - authentic documentation.........one HELL of a drug deal or much more clandestine.
That's 20% of Japan's holdings in Treasuries if it's real. That would be one hell of a drug deal. To picture that in terms that aren't too big to understand, that's about 30 Nimitz class aircraft carriers there, sans air wings.
I hope BSR is going to go milk a cow and not his neighbor.
To be fair, it's not getting much play in Italy either--no one seems to have picked up the story except the local Como newspaper and Berlusconi.
When does mid-year fall this year? Is this a 20 day forecast?
NervousRex, thank you very much. I'm not looking to get proprietary information for free, I just want to know I can get the numbers broken down by stage somewhere.
So if I understand this right, RealtyTrac, DataQuick and CoreLogic release these scary (but convoluted) data points that have little meaning on their own, presumably in the hope that if you're really interested, you'll pay to get the straight dope. I can understand that, this is America after all, land of the crave, home of the fee.
What I don't understand is that all this data comes from county records. So the government has within it the ability to produce this data to its citizens for free, but I guess it's simply not important enough? Or is is that we don't want the government revealing the details of our neighborhoods, that people should have to pay to see the distress?
Btw, I live in California too. I most often hear Arnold referred to as the "Governator". Maybe the name has gotten goofier over time. I actually feel sorry for the guy. He made an excellent choice to leverage his stardom for political cache and could have be set for life in politics. Then all hell breaks loose (yes, certainly much deserved) but I'm sure he imagined an entirely different Governorship. His initial speeches were about cleaning up the government and putting special interests in their place. I'm not saying I believed him, but it seems pretty clear it was he that got the education there. Now he's stuck making the unpopular decisions that must be made with little appreciation for the weight that must go along with them.
I feel for Arnold, too. As far as cleaning up special interests, I voted for his anti-union propositions several years back. I just hate unions.
I've been watching trulia for over a year, since we're planning on buying next year in the Sacramento area (hopefully). I was just checking Elk Grove. Out of over 3,000 homes, 756 came up as in some process of foreclosure just in the last 7 days! Granite Bay had a jump in foreclosure activity this week, too. I think we should be able to get some crazy good deals soon. We're just waiting.