That works until you move to a smoke and mirrors services based economy running a substantial trade deficit."
Tell me about it, been yelling for years to death ears.
"Have you ever read any of Remarque's books? Wiki. He wrote 'All Quiet On The Western Front' but also a number of very good books about Germany in the 20s & 30s. A 'Night In Lisbon' a novelized account of refugees trying to escape Nazi Germany. The 'Black Obelisk' is about living during the 'Great Inflation'. Both are fabulous reads."
Nah, maybe I should. Grandpa doesn't remember much about the 20's, he was a young kid. But came to age in the mid-late 30's. Hitler's beliefs about the United States changed as well. He thought the United States was a ally of the Germans in the 1920's, but changed in the 1930's to the United States was invented by Jews to destroy and pillage Europe. That is what they were taught by the late 30's in Hitler youth camps as they prepared for war.
Of course after grandpa left Germany to come into the US after the war(he survived the Russian front) he joked about FDR's NRA and called it "Roosevelt youth".
RE: abusive posters: Besides reporting in comment section is there a way that you can see who gets the most "ignore" clicks? That would be pretty indicitive.....
Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 8:35 pm
NorkaWest -
That tuned out real well for the Argentines.
Oh I was not proposing it, more of a what might be next thing.
My point was the Government is addicted to my money, and they want their fix, and either they break the habit or we are going to be indentured servants for the rest of our lives, and our children, and their children, etc.
I agree with your conclusion.
I guess I'll have to brush up on my Spanish.
We are looking more and more Argentine (not Japanese) every day.
Thanks Ken, also. I know how hard it is to keep working on something until it gets "stable" and I wanted to commend you on all your efforts and patience (mostly with our demands) as well. I hope you are able to translate it to a broader success.
Anyone watching Richard Posner on Charlie Rose? Regarding future he said his "main concern was whether the United States was governable." Rose reacted but didn't press him on that . For those not on east coast worth watching or taping. Begins 30 mins into program.
Comrade-Dope jg, I hate being the enforcer - I like a free flow of information. But I think a reminder every now and then helps.
girlbear, Ken is looking at a few things - like a report abusive comment button. Most of Ken's energy (in the free time he gives us) is spent on cool features. It is a shame we need to have to step in ... but we can't let a few people ruin the comments for everyone.
CalculatedRisk (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 11:56 pm
Bubblisimo Gerkinov, good assumption.
Just my 2 cents, but this place is at its best as /b/ for bankers and economists. The farther it strays from charlatans and temple whores, the less it will be what makes it excellent.
It's a boom in Global Denial. We're experiencing a denial bubble. The air will be taken out of the bubble when the capacity for oil storage hits it's peak and the speculators actually have to do something with oceans of the stuff.
Of course after grandpa left Germany to come into the US after the war(he survived the Russian front) he joked about FDR's NRA and called it "Roosevelt youth".
I went to the NRA museum last time I was on the east coast, and it did have that goal. National lunch programs, PE classes, marksmanship training. He was concerned the U.S. would be caught flat footed again.
Now days they need to dis-arm the gang who are better armed and in some cases trained than the police, The We is getting the nation off the couch for a minute or two, and they have to cut the calories in school lunches to about 1/3 to solve the obesity problem. So yes I can say this is not the 1930's repeated.
I missed the abusive comments,probably because I used the "Ignore" button for a couple of people who did not have a signal to noise ratio.
Ya I missed it too - but that was because you hardcore doomers are getting me paranoid - so I've been cutting firewood like a crazy man the last week or so. Only stop in to take a break from the woodlot. Who says you all aren't having an economic effect - just ask the mechanic rebuilding my chainsaw.
RE: abusive posters: Besides reporting in comment section is there a way that you can see who gets the most "ignore" clicks? That would be pretty indicitive.....
I like to think of myself as annoying at times, but not abusive.
The good point is people tell you your ...... them off, so I log off and mellow out, but really some of this stuff is like religion and politics. There is just no way people are not going to get worked up. But self control is needed, and if not, for the good of the many the few .ss.... need to go, or at least be cut for a short time to mellow out.
"The We is getting the nation off the couch for a minute or two, and they have to cut the calories in school lunches to about 1/3 to solve the obesity problem"
Maybe Obama can market his own workout program for kids mandetory in schools.
I'm just hoping that comment readers will spend a few moments carefully considering the subtle sarcasm and/or black humor that's often employed by this intelligent crowd before complaining about content.
om Stone (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 8:59 pm
I missed the abusive comments,probably because I used the "Ignore" button for a couple of people who did not have a signal to noise ratio.
This got me curious. I have only 4 people on my ignore list and see almost none of the abuse. Seeing as 1 is there for personal reasons I'd say we all suspect who the others are.
I'm certain I'm in the minority, but, i always enjoy "those that would be ignored'. Why? It brings out the other end of the logic spectrum in defense. It's that group that keeps me coming back. Of course, an internal "ignore f(x)" helps.
RockyR- I don't know who postulated oil dropping before the end of summer first (me or EHP). but, since I haven't seen him/her in awhile, I'll carry the flag for our cause and maintain our position. However, I haven't taken a position financially so it doesn't really count. Good luck.
Is there any way oil doesn't go over $100 with the same old oil meme going strong?
Yes. I'd take profits now. What happened to Jas? Did he get stoned by the CR people and die? Or did his loneliness get to him? Did he hang himself in Bangkok?
I had Michael pegged as an idiot from day one and I did my best not to feed the troll. However, he posted a link recently which I found extremely informative and have passed along to many people, even though his comment posting the link was typically useless. I never use the ignore function, but some days there are too many comments, so I skip to my favorite usual suspects.
Is there any way oil doesn't go over $100 with the same old oil meme going strong?.
Remember, oil is a commodity. One barrel of oil too many, you get a glut and the price crashes. One barrel too few, you get a shortage and the price spikes.
Need to try to get back in was brought home today while doing college financing prep.
Eldest likes a small VA university and we were on that site this AM as well as on site for her 529 monies. We were able to pull together a very general feel for what the loan picture will have to be if there's no scholarships, grants, etc.
That university site also gave the cost for this year's tuition/room&board/etc.
Later, was examining the SallieMae site and it extrapolated the cost for that particular school in several years. Money was obviously higher and fine print stated that based on historic college inflation rate of 5.7%/annually.
I actually laughed and wondered if it would actually be less in the new economic world.
BTW, Bankrate has excellent calculator for college, but SallieMae does a great job with walking you through financing alternatives and looking at financials of individual colleges.
hong konger -
Since you volunteered, care to post why?
I dumped all of my oil / Nat Gas around 3 weeks ago.
I don't mind being early, but if oil hits $100 I will be questioning my sanity.
That and the impact on the current economy and what it will do to any hopes of growth.
"Or in my case just poor taste and gutter humor, hey it's all I know."
Are you Oscar the Grouch? Or maybe a Garbage Pail Kid? The only good gutter humor, btw, is the the kind that makes you laugh so hard your heroin high goes away and your crack addiction kicks in. "Screw the black tar, where is my glass pipe?"
Just see the commenter and typically gloss over. But occasionally there are nuggets.
OT, but watched House last night and when a character referred to a butt plug, middle asked me what one was. Told him I didn't know, but that I thought that they probably came in gold...
No. It is still early on. SRS is the question. When CRE is so bad how does it linger so low? Is it a homerun buy right now or is the deck dealt from the bottom?
To any of the tech geeks out there. I've am playing around with a jail-broken Iphone 3g.
Pretty amazing what you can do with it. Really amazing UI as usual with Apple products. On top of that fully accessible now via ssh, any unix package you want available for it, tethering a laptop, ability to backround any application. Gmake, cvs, java, c, c++ compiler etc.. Basically anything under the sun is available for it.
I have it running a firefly media server and any other computer on your network running ITunes will see the media remotely.
Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 11:02 pm
Now days they need to dis-arm the gang who are better armed and in some cases trained than the police, The We is getting the nation off the couch for a minute or two, and they have to cut the calories in school lunches to about 1/3 to solve the obesity problem. So yes I can say this is not the 1930's repeated.
It's one of nature's dirty tricks that the food which is a poor choice for you from a health perspective is, or has become, through the work of the food industry, both the most tempting and one of the lowest-cost options. Interestingly it is also some of the most sophisticated food we can produce. A diet of fresh produce, which is relatively cheap to grow oneself, is a very expensive purchase option even though producing it is so primitive and easy, with logistical problems of spoilage and transport. Yet a diet of manufactured food containing artificial colors and flavors which requires millions of dollars worth of capital equipment and large amounts of engineering expertise to produce is one of the cheapest lifestyle options for food. An interesting set of market forces.
If I did not learn how to deal with abusers and idiotic people at a young age, I think I would have had a very annoying life. You only ban or use restraining orders on the true sicko's, and even then it does not work unless you can throw them in jail. Somehow people think the Internet should be better.
Of course I do treasure this site and what I am able to learn just being a fly on the wall, being a gag fly is even better to where I can ask stupid questions or make stupid statements and get schooled. From that I do my own research to decide who is full of it.
Jas tends to get scarce when treasuries tank - at least he diversified into high desert real estate...
higher rates really are the phantom menace - everyone should own a little tbt, because that will be just about your only consolation prize as U3 and the TNX race to 15% next year... "government bubble" is indeed the emergimg meme... all manner of state entities have similar revenue-to-valuation issues as the most bloated techs a decade ago
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Convertible bonds that punished hedge funds in 2008 are driving returns at Canyon Partners and Citadel Investment Group LLC and helping companies from JetBlue Airways Corp. to Alliance Data Systems Corp. raise capital.
Canyon, the $14.4 billion investment firm run by former Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. bankers, gained more than 51 percent in its convertible fund through May 22, according to a May 29 letter sent to investors. Citadel posted a 21 percent return in its two main funds through May, aided by convertible bets.
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- China’s exports fell by a record as the global recession cut demand for goods produced by the world’s third-largest economy.
Overseas sales dropped 26.4 percent in May from a year earlier, the customs bureau said in a statement on its Web site today. That compares with the median estimate for a decline of 23 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 15 economists, and a 22.6 percent contraction in April.
CNBC said the 10 year auction was awful, but I didn't think so. And bonds rallied somewhat after the auction, but couldn't muster much more in front of $11 billion long bonds tomorrow. I actually like the bond market here. I'm a buyer here and would buy more on further backup.
ResistanceIsFeudal -
My problem is that if I eat too much of this 'new food', I actually start feeling like cr.. I can really feel my body shutting down.
So now I get my red meat fix, etc by trying to cook at home, or hit a few select plate lunch places that cook real and good food.
It was a sobering breakfast with one of the smartest Republicans on Capitol Hill. We can fix a lot of bad stuff President Barack Obama might do, he told me. But if Mr. Obama signs into law a "public option," government-run insurance program as part of health-care reform we won't be able to undo the damage.
I'd go the Republican member of Congress one further: If Democrats enact a public-option health-insurance program, America is on the way to becoming a European-style welfare state. To prevent this from happening, there are five arguments Republicans must make.
Hong Konger - ehp and made an erroneous bet about oil for s+gs. He took oil@50 within 6wks, I took the opposite end: oil@70 within 6 weeks. I didn't put any money behind my bet. I wish that I had!
CR - you have a great community here. It's no doubt the envy of many other comepetent bloggers. You have a really, really great site. You and Ken have done a smash-up job. Let's just please (bloggers and community members both), for the sake of preserving what's here, not piss in the proverbial chili by becoming overzealous with the moderation.
Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 11:39 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal -
My problem is that if I eat too much of this 'new food', I actually start feeling like cr.. I can really feel my body shutting down.
So now I get my red meat fix, etc by trying to cook at home, or hit a few select plate lunch places that cook real and good food.
I live close to a couple of bars with the typical bar cuisine (aka various fatty fried food combinations that evolved to taste good with alcohol and are awful on an empty stomach ) but don't find myself eating there often despite the convenience. I also like to cook though I am very far from a skilled chef. When I first got here I ate dinner out quite often there and noticed a big difference in overall feeling of health. I probably have my upbringing to blame - eating dinner at a restaurant or ordering in pizza was a treat not a regular occurence and most meals were prepared at home.
Let's just please (bloggers and community members both), for the sake of preserving what's here, not piss in the proverbial chili by becoming overzealous with the moderation.
Thanks, Rocky.
Now I know what to put in the Cincinnati Chili for that little extra something.
How has american style kleptocracy worked out? While I do think that the european welfare state model is too restrictive and static, the current american kleptocractic model is even worser. There has to be better way.
/If Democrats enact a public-option health-insurance program, America is on the way to becoming a European-style welfare state.//
"Oil just quantitatively eased its way above $72/bbl. "
I have been hearing from a lot of people about the pain at the pump. People are really starting to feel it. Sure, it has gotten some press, but not as much as I think it deserves, it is going to be a real crimp on any hope of recovery.
This is a much bigger story than the rise in yields. It may not sound like much, but an increase from 1.60 a gallon to 2.60 is a 60%+ rise. I think people underestimated the positive impact that $1.60 a gallon gas had.
Why did BB see the need to cheapen the dollar by buying Treasuries? What exactly was the point? I can understanding stepping into the MBS market a little bit to keep spreads in line, but $1.25T and $300B in Treasuries?
Just plain stupid. A HUGE overreaction. Totally unnecessary.
Why did BB see the need to cheapen the dollar by buying Treasuries
Relax, that isn't causing oil to rise. Put it this way, the same thing that is forcing the dollar to fall is also causing oil to rise: end of the trade. No more deleveraging, people flee the saftey of dollars.
EVER wondered why the pundits who failed to predict the current economic crisis are still being paid for their opinions? It's a consequence of the way human psychology works in a free market, according to a study of how people's self-confidence affects the way others respond to their advice.
The research, by Don Moore of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, shows that we prefer advice from a confident source, even to the point that we are willing to forgive a poor track record. Moore argues that in competitive situations, this can drive those offering advice to increasingly exaggerate how sure they are. And it spells bad news for scientists who try to be honest about gaps in their knowledge.
I know this is late and all, but due to business travel I was only one a one-way window to Calculated Risk. I posted something on zero hedge comments...
I was very disappointed by the Supreme Court's ruling not to hear the Indiana Pension fund challenge to the auto-bailout. If one read's the TARP public law; in no way does it allow the Executive branch to spend the money on automobile companies. It specifically calls out "financial instruments" (or something like that..). It also specifically states whatever is bought under TARP had to be issued prior to March 14, 2008. In nowhere in the TARP law is there any authorization for any of the funds that have gone to automakers. Bush did this as well as Obama, so both parties are at fault. Additionally, in December the House passed the authorization for the automaker bailouts; but the Senate did not pass any bill. Therefore, all these automaker bailouts are unauthorized.
By allowing Treasury to act in such a manner; the Supreme Court has failed in their constitutional duty. If one allows the broad interpretation of the law, Geithner can found the "Geithner Striking Features Beauty Line" of cosmetics; and he can fund it with TARP funds so long as he sends a letter; without any oversight, without any strings. But clearly; if you read the Public Law, it specifically calls out "financial instruments" and "financial paper". One would argue; okay we can buy the Chrysler Finance and GM finance arms; but clearly not the effin' automakers!
So when do us taxpayers get to challenge and who has standing? I believe the bond-holder issue is a red herring... well its an issue but the bigger issue is the illegal use of funds. Also, if TARP is used to buy "financial instruments" issued prior to March 14, 2008; how the hell do we end up using TARP funds and TARP money to buy stakes in "New Chrysler" and "New GM"?
This is clearly illegal; yet no one has been pointing this out. We have a media that's job is to point out this shit. Even most posters here aren't aware of it.
I was truly hoping the Supreme Court would hear the challenge that using TARP funds on automakers was clearly legal. If a car-maker is a "financial instrument" than everything else is as well.
I just don't think my doctor would understand.
When he asked if my shoulder was hurting, (It was killing me), and I told him I had messed it up on a bad landing long ago, and if a storm was coming or I was stressed it would hurt like a ......
Needless to say he looked at me like I was nuts, and I have been to see that idiot for around 5 years. Though I may have to go and see him when and if they come out with a vaccine for the swine flu.
ghostfaceinvestah -
If the interest rates go up, or the flow of free money to the banks stops. A lot of banks are toast. To keep interest rates low, the FED has to buy.
"was very disappointed by the Supreme Court's ruling not to hear the Indiana Pension fund challenge to the auto-bailout"
Politically motivated by the Republican party. They had no case. Personally, I find it a stupid move among the Republicans. Maybe their first in several months.
Kauai-
Well, it was an intuitive guess, really, based on relative values and intuition about what producers might HAVE to do (that's why I didn't place any money on it).
Oil and gas are commodities that can be stored but not brought to production at even rates. Like a supertanker, their production schedules can't be turned on a dime. It was obvious at $120 they'd start internally talking about reducing production as those prices were crippling (I realize that sounds ridiculous at first blush, but, think about how a commodity producer would think about demand in the case of a necessary good in terms of intertemporal political consequences). However, it takes roughly 6 months for the schedules to reflect that ultimate decision. In any case, by my calcs, we've/they've finally reduced production enough to absorb the available storage and there'll be a significant drop off of the leveraged players around end July/end August to account for the inventory buildup and reduced production.
I might add that exploration and seismic work is continuing apace and there is no drop off in demand for those services.
Anyway, that's my thesis. It may be off a few months, but, it's based on an intutive interpretation of what I believe to be higher order rational decision making.
"Just plain stupid. A HUGE overreaction. Totally unnecessary. "
not at all. nyfed candy-store treasuries are the means by which balance sheets have been repaired at wfc, bac, c, rf, gs, pnc, etc. just those names alone (alll of which have at least doubled off lows, and almost all of which took part in hank-and-ben shotgun weddings) are infinitely more important than joe six pack. and, in any case, any and all manner of asset or commodity inflation is a damn good thing in the $50 tril entitlement big picture.
YLSP -
You get to have a say in around 2 years at the next election.
Of course here in Hawaii, it is democratic block votes bought and paid for by the unions. Ever feel your vote just does not count?
Once upon a time you could read the comments section and see interesting debate on matters, now almost entirely noise by an established crowd of people. Every thread is populated with chatter about the markets.
CR your comments section has become little more than a banal chat room, its unfortunate. The fact that you hardly participant in them says it all. You should have moved this nonsense into an actual chat room or forum long ago.
hong konger-
Thank you, I'll digest that later.
Just finished some of my todo list, and one of them was to float an almost empty keg, clean it and fill it back up with an IPA.
Need to tone down now, don't want to offend anyone.
did anyone hear what Jim Grant had to say on CNBC?
sadly, I can't get Charlie Rose over here... what did Posner say that was BS? 1 Currency?
make a counter argument against his argument... doesn't help much by calling it BS, no?
I think I need to pack my bags and get moving...(maybe I have a touch of that David Carradine feeling....) nearly a year in Asia again, makes a man go a bit nuts...
either it's the gangster governments or else its (esp. here in Cambo) the NGO mafia... gets tiring meeting
people who make 90 to 140 a year + nice apt and maid and listen to them tell me how they are saving the
world....
CR your comments section has become little more than a banal chat room, its unfortunate.
One big difference now is that instead of debating what may come, we now find ourselves in the process where there is nothing to debate.
The Government is fully involved and we may howl at the moon but right now nothing is going to stop them, or change the direction.
You know once financial meltdown, economic Pearl Harbor, National interest language is used you are on a slippery slope. Same thing happened after 9/11 and people complained but the path was set. Same thing is happening now.
And for me personally, I do not mind hard core debate, or more laid back free flowing discussions that dance around an issue.
Just because you don't see the connecting lines does not mean they are not there.
But once again, the personnel attacks are inappropriate and need to be left in the grade school playground.
"One man's trash is another man's treasure. Market commentary is a key attraction for me. "
Of course and the market drivel is likely to attract more commentary and traffic. From that point of view, its fine. But form a more intellectual point of view its fairly vacuous. CR obviously decided long ago that traffic mattered more than reasoned discourse. That's fine, just don't be surprised when your comments section turns into a school yard that is the logical outcome.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 12:11 am
He has lost less (%) than the invested endowments of ivy league universities .
//One man's trash is another Jas's treasury.//
In this age of shrinking endowments I hope to see less Viagra,Cialis,etc ads on television. Particularly at mealtime. But I fear these pharmaceutical ads will join death and taxes as one of life's little inevitabilities
"One big difference now is that instead of debating what may come, we now find ourselves in the process where there is nothing to debate. The Government is fully involved and we may howl at the moon but right now nothing is going to stop them, or change the direction."
Firstly, this has little to do with what I'm talking about. Secondly, there are many things that can be done. But Americans seem more interested in complaining about things from home, then actually doing anything. But that is another issue entirely.
I believe free speech should be free just like beer and ponies.
Don't care about the ponies, but leave me my beer. Oh wait sin tax's......
The latest rounds of taxes stand to take quite a few micr-brewies "small biz" operations out. Hope you all like Foreign owned Bud light.
carnap (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 10:23 pm
...But Americans seem more interested in complaining about things from home, then actually doing anything. But that is another issue entirely.
Ahhhh, my favorite Europhile is back with a new handle.
Eventually this board will evolve spin-offs, with different styles and foci.
There is still good topical discussion, but there are also broader running threads, which make this a better discussion.
"A Talmudic maxim instructs with respect to the Scripture: 'Turn it over, and turn it over, for all is therein.' . . . Divinely inspired text may contain the answers to all earthly questions, but the Due Process Clause most assuredly does not."
Justice Antonin Scalia
My advice is never use the constitution for your political agenda. Libertarians,Austrians and people who call themselves "Constitutionalists" do this all the time and it is one of the big problems why I can't stand them. They dictate what the constitution is and then by force want everybody else to follow them or they are a "collectivist". Even if their view is wrong. That leads to what Jack London called 'the iron heel".
It is just a excuse for their lust of unregulated capitalism and monoply control It is a classic use of intellectual monotheism that the marxists used 100 years ago to get into power among the laboring classes. Jefferson himself bent the consitution and made snap judgements that blurred the line of consitutionality. Yet, he is considered a hero. America has done well when knowing when the constitution is being harmed and when it is being preserved. Yet, we have some people that want to enforce minority tryanny. You are wrong.
In my view, Capitalism can only function when the economy is properly regulated by honorable people in government and social programs to help move the wealth around the ladder. Capitalism has a long history of failing to do this by its actors(the capitalists) and as the industrial revolution went along, it got more exposed than ever leading toward President Tafts own advisers that they worried about 'socialist" revolution thanks to the poverty in America.
Right now, we don't have honorable people in government and we have crypto-intellectuals on the internet and blogs crying doom on everything that goes on to try and "will the people to their side". Fact is, it is sickening. It completely ruins debate and sends us into madhouse of never ending garbage.
And Era's End it really ticks me off when people intentionally talk past other people on the Internet. It's the problem with trying to have a reasonable discussion.
I'm asking to see the public statute that authorizes funds for the automakers. Doesn't exist! That's what I was hoping the Supreme Court would rule on... "Hey; these funds that have been flowing this way since December... the public law never allows them... and Executive branch shouldn't make laws where you can spend the money on whatever you want".
Oh go ahead with that "this is your opinion" crap. Is there some law that you have to act like a hack on message boards if you disagree with someone?
This is what I looked up a few nights ago: The definition section is very interesting. Do you want to know what I found out? Definition of institutions eligible for TARP money; a "financial institution" defined as "any institution, but not limited to any bank, savings association, credit union, security broker or dealer, or insurance company, established and regulated under the laws of the United States or any State...etc".
What is the definition of a "troubled asset": residential or commercial mortgages and any securities, obligations, or other instruments that are based on or related to such mortgages, that in each case was originated or issued on or before March 14, 2008 (etc).
Under no law of Congress does it establish that the TARP money is for buying up bankrupt companies, or even bailing out the automakers. In December, there was a bill that specifically amended the TARP to include the automakers. That bill was passed by the House, but not by the Senate. Curious, eh? Notwithstanding the fact that they didn't have authorization to use TARP in this manner; Bush still went ahead with the automaker bailout-loans, and so did Obama.
The question I have after reviewing all this is: what section of public law allows our executive to spendtaxpayer money to buy up Chrysler and GM? These new companies were not issued on or before March 14, 2008; correct? In fact I think the SCOTUS should render the bailouts of the automakers illegal. It's clear that the TARP only authorizes us to buy "financial instruments"; however if you use the executive definition of a "financial instrument" that can mean anything the executive wants, as long as the executve says its a threat to financial security.
I'm quite clear that this is about the law. Additionally; none of the courts in the BK case took up the question, "Can TARP funds cover the automakers". Obama's general solicitor made a weak case that the SCOTUS shouldn't review that question basically by saying: "Supreme Court is typically not the first reviewer of these questions...". It is my hope the SCOTUS asks these questions of the administration. I don't believe it is the intent of Congress to interpret TARP so broadly... however they left gaping open loopholes (and haven't bothered to close them) which means they implicitly agree to bailing out the automakers.
I really do believe the question needs to be answered by the SCOTUS. It's hard for me to understand that this law can be passed; and our money is being spent by TARP on non-financial instruments. Of course its clear one can argue that GMAC financial and Chrysler financial are "financial instruments"; but the automakers as a whole company?
Of course I'm not sure they will rule against the executive, but I think there is a definite gripe that the law os so vague. In fact, is it possible they rule that the loophole in the TARP bill which states: "financial institution is" "any other financial instrument that the Treasury Secretary after consulting with the Chariman of the Fed determines the purchase of which is necessary to promote financial market stability, but only upon transmittal of such determination, in writing, to the appropriate committees of Congress." Again, specifically it mentions "financial instruments". There has been no review that automobile companies are "financial instruments" and I hope judges were s cratching their heads. I know why the lower courts punted on the question; but SCOTUS needs to pick up the ball and make a determination.
"thanks for adding more self-righteous noise, carnap "
My comments are related to the topic. And the point is simple, CR is trying to paddle upstream. He allowed the comments sections to degrade into a chat room, now he has to deal with the outcome. Adding an "abuse button" is going to do little.
It completely ruins debate and sends us into madhouse of never ending garbage.
Arf! Arf!
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Capitalists used to understand that the value was not in the representation (money) but the real factories & people. In case you hadn't noticed, they're busily destroying the very dollars they worked so hard to accumulate. The equation has to balance, equilibrium will re-assert itself. Most capitalists don't realize that 50% of their sales are a result of the taxes they pay.
carnap -
I am deeply sorry that you consider our market drivel low brow and off topic.
Maybe I'm just not sophisticated enough to understand how the 10 year bond rate, debt levels, decreased spending and increased savings do not apply to the main focus of this board.
Now while I will be the first to say the market's is not the economy, the markets do impact housing and critical decisions that need to be made by the average person, and Governments in general. Maybe I miss understood the target of CR.
Just because a few off topic bond forming discussions take place that allow us to understand the individuals involved and where they are coming from takes place, it does not destroy the group, it enhances it. But then I tend to work best with teams, and not dictatorships.
As I explained yesterday, the appeal is still pending, only the stay was denied.
A stay is an emergency action preventing another court's order from being enforced, and can be abusive, as "justice delayed is justice denied." Unless the Indiana pension fund decides it's not worth the effort, or the case is clearly moot, I'm pretty sure the Court will hear the appeal.
I'm going to read and respond to your latest post, but first a couple points.
My understanding is that the Court today declined to grant an emergency stay of actions authorized by a lower court. That's not a big deal decision.
I also understand there was no dissenting opinion written. That means it didn't really piss off any of the nine justices (and they do occupy different parts of the political spectrun).
This sets no precedent of any kind for any purpose on any issue.
It just means this wasn't the case they were interested in debating in writing.
The Supreme Court rarely gets involved in anything it thinks is a political question.
The fact that the Bush Administration started this process and the Obama Administration finished it on key says that what "the Executive" did is what it thought "the Legislature" gave it power to do. "Without objection" as they say in Congress.
I think you are putting way too much emphasis on a really minor matter, but I will read and respond because I appreciate the fact that you give a shit about what's happening.
One is always considered a troll if they say something against the group-think But its rubbish really. I've been reading this blog for a good 3 years and I rarely comment, there are other places I can go to discuss things. I commented on this post, because it was about the comments and the comments section use to be much more interesting in the past. That is my view, you are free to think differently.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 12:38 am
Capitalists used to understand that the value was not in the representation (money) but the real factories & people. In case you hadn't noticed, they're busily destroying the very dollars they worked so hard to accumulate. The equation has to balance, equilibrium will re-assert itself. Most capitalists don't realize that 50% of their sales are a result of the taxes they pay.
We have an entire major sector of the economy based on the exact inverse idea - that productive capital is worthless and financial capital is priceless. They called it: FIRE. Possibly because it consumes everything in its path and burns as long as it continues to be supplied with oxygen.
"One is always considered a troll if they say something against the group-think "
uh, no. going against groupthink here would be a reasonable defense of a position in something like SPY, TLT, DTO, or a personal holding in CRE, or even a defense of nyfed policy. that has value, if only in stimulating consideration of different perspectives.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 12:51 am
Didn't their parents ever tell them not to play with FIRE.
//They called it: FIRE.//
Actually their "parents" encouraged them, gave them books on pyrotechnics, and supplied as much of the incendiary material as they wanted and brought some gasoline along.
I commented on this post, because it was about the comments and the comments section use to be much more interesting in the past. That is my view, you are free to think differently.
I do agree the noise to thought ratio has increased.
And I do think that this is a very important thread that is attempting to define what is the goals of the comment section. But an IRC channel or separate forum has been tried in other areas and just does not work out in my opinion. To outline what I would like to think the heart and soul of this blog and the comments section might/could be.
I have been a lurker for years before I started posting, and even in the past I would often fly through the comments section because often I found it, lacking... Technical, wonkish. Covering something so major to everyone, but presented in ways that would make a non-economist fall asleep.
In all aspects I am a guest, and I fully intend on following the house rules and guidelines. If I don't like them I can leave.
In many ways I am an outsider, I'm just an average J6P who is trying to keep up with the massive changes going on in my world, country, state, and general reality. And I am not ashamed to say I'm shocked, dazed and confused. The comment section for me has come alive lately with a mix of people that is rarely found, with breath of views and topics that makes reading the comment sections worth while.
Maybe I'm not the only one out there, and I think at this point a little flexibility is called for, with at times strong guidance and enforcement from CR. It's his playground we are in.
Just my two cents, hopefully it makes a little sense.
You said: "Oh go ahead with that "this is your opinion" crap. Is there some law that you have to act like a hack on message boards if you disagree with someone?"
One of the problems with message boards is that you will get a whole lot more opinions than facts or research. People generally aren't going to do research to prove their opinion or disprove yours. The most you can hope for is that they will read your opinion which, hopefully, will be backed by facts and research.
You said "I'm asking to see the public statute that authorizes funds for the automakers. Doesn't exist! That's what I was hoping the Supreme Court would rule on.."
To do what you hoped the Court would have had to grant the emergency stay . . . which really was the only issue before it today. Justice Ginsburg probably did the right thing by granting a temporary stay referring the matter to the whole Court. When it wasn't that big a deal with any of them, they let it go. That means it wasn't her decision to ignore the absence of specific enabling legislation, it was the decision that all of them reached. Compare 'political decisions.'
After reviewing some definitions, you say: "Under no law of Congress does it establish that the TARP money is for buying up bankrupt companies, or even bailing out the automakers."
True enough, but in case you missed it (I know you didn't), the whole point of the TARP legislation was junked almost as soon as it was signed. Paulson didn't go around buying "troubled assets" from "financial institutions." He just started cutting checks to the banks and asking for shares to be issued at prices way above market values. This implicated not just who did benefit, but who might benefit, from the largesse of Congress . . . and it eventually found it's way to the auto companies.
You seem to understand this so far, since you then said: "I'm quite clear that this is about the law. Additionally; none of the courts in the BK case took up the question, "Can TARP funds cover the automakers". Obama's general solicitor made a weak case that the SCOTUS shouldn't review that question basically by saying: "Supreme Court is typically not the first reviewer of these questions...". It is my hope the SCOTUS asks these questions of the administration. I don't believe it is the intent of Congress to interpret TARP so broadly... however they left gaping open loopholes (and haven't bothered to close them) which means they implicitly agree to bailing out the automakers."
This is your key statement that underlies why the Court did not act in the way you hoped it would. The Supreme Court does not generally jump into the middle of factual disputes (such as what the legislation covers) or the intention of the Congress (given what both sides of the political spectrum were accepting as 'okay within the meaning') unless those issues have been thoroughly briefed and argued in the lower courts and decisions on the merits issued that can then be reviewed, whether for error in application or for failure to comply with Constitutional mandates. None of this occurred. There was no record on which they could cause all this to be done in connection with the granting of an emergency stay.
"I really do believe the question needs to be answered by the SCOTUS."
Okay, but you'll have to wait a few years.
"In fact, is it possible they rule that the loophole in the TARP bill which states: "financial institution is" "any other financial instrument that the Treasury Secretary after consulting with the Chariman of the Fed determines the purchase of which is necessary to promote financial market stability, but only upon transmittal of such determination, in writing, to the appropriate committees of Congress." Again, specifically it mentions "financial instruments". There has been no review that automobile companies are "financial instruments" and I hope judges were scratching their heads."
If it makes you feel any better, just think of "financial instruments" as including loans and preferred stock. The government didn't buy the companies, but rather just loaned them money. The reality, though, is that this is a loophole big enough to drive a truck through and that was in fact the intention of Congress . . . because that is exactly what Paulson requested.
Bottom line: this declination to grant an emergency stay means nothing in the long run. In the short run, this wasn't the ditch to die in. Live to fight another day. Thanks for caring.
"Maybe I'm just not sophisticated enough to understand how the 10 year bond rate, debt levels, decreased spending and increased savings do not apply to the main focus of this board."
My point is not that these things are not relevant to the economy, of course they are. Rather, that the comments lack goal directed reasoned debate. A good half of the comments are stupid chatter that is only amusing to the few people involved. A lot of the comments are fairly irrelevant and only of interest to traders, but at least these can in principle be understood by outsiders. There is just a general lack of reasoned debate, most of the debates are just hotheads beating their chest.
Anyhow, I'm not suggesting all the conversations are uninteresting or are some how unreasonable.. But the noise is so strong that its really hard to focus (or even find) the more interesting debates.
Regardless, I'm not trying to insult you or anybody for liking the comments. But they are more akin to a chat room than anything else. Seems like things could be better separated.
Era's End writes: "In my view, Capitalism can only function when the economy is properly regulated by honorable people in government and social programs to help move the wealth around the ladder."
This, in my opinion is what makes America the greatest country ever invented. Where else can you find a place like this? Not only is this an example of pure frontier gibbberish, it also adds to the explanation of how we got here.
Honorable people indeed. I'm sending you a lamp to assist in your search. O! yes, you'll need to pack a lunch.
Capitalism exists as a system to drive competition out. Its ultimate end is monopoly. There is no greater sport than this. There is no more dire peril either. When played on a small scale, it makes for an exciting existence.
"ignore user" button -
Inconceivable. Page down works as well, just like walking away from a drunk at a bar, making certain the bouncer has your back and you can see the idiot in the mirror.
generally, i try not to feed trolls, but the late hour and public interest involved compel me, as does the possibility that you might revert to lurking for a few more years.
still, i'm impressed - you've managed to write "dood this board is lame now the noobs fail" in well over one hundred words. not easy.
"I'm not trying to insult you or anybody for liking the comments. But they are more akin to a chat room than anything else. Seems like things could be better separated."
The universal default is chaos. Any attempt at construction will ultimately result in more chaos. Chaos is.
Better separated...here's your divider pack and scoop. Get to work now--hup, hup.
anyone have an opinion on back to school sales this year? I was at a tech investor conference this week in SF, and it seems like most of the tech companies that presented are talking about seeing stabilization or modest growth for 2Q and a better 2H. But what about Q3? My guess is that with a lot more people either unemployed or underemployed compared to last July/August, this year's back to school buying season should come in pretty weak, contrary to what a lot of WS analysts have modeled in. But it is just my guess.
Kahuna, I've been in more than a few bars and they are more or less the same. How to avoid financial muggings requires a different skill set. There are a lot of smiling faces out there.
Personally, never been to your islands other than a refueling in the late 1960s that took two hours. Have a feeling, though, that the bars are more or less the same. Think I just said that.
Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:21 am
sportsfan -
Sounds like you've spent some time in more than a couple bars.
Hey, its a life style, I just wish I knew how to protect my self as well financially to keep my self from being blind sided and mugged.
Stay out of the casino, trim exposed hedges and steer clear of the dark pools. And don't take wooden nickels. Unfortunately we all get Bernanke Bucks, which are like Disney Dollars in that they are only real money within the Magic Kingdom. Good night.
Kauia ....
thos NGO jobs I mentioned, I wish I had one too... (Cambodia pays more since it's considered hazardous duty pay...)
besides the usually required Masters degree it takes connections... I had friends for years trying to get jobs at the UN,
roughly the same thing....
daveinsv -
Short answer, I don't see it.
While sooner or later parts will need to be replaced, IT components will need to be ungraded, but that can be a slow process and there is a lot of excess inventory out there.
The large upgrade cycles tend to come after a product has reached end of life and support is not longer automatic unless a company pays big bucks for exclusive support. M$, Apple, none of them have any new massive upgrades coming in time for the back to school session. Networks, and most other IT parts can wait as long as updates are available and security problems are addressed.
Now when XP goes end of life, that will be something else, but I never bet on M$.
I do think that the Tech sector is the only increase in productivity and growing industry, I just don't see it leading any where good any time soon.
But once again, I tend to wrong all the time.
Thus my dilemma, angst, confusion.
When all the markets are rigged casinos, I run to Bernanke Bucks, and I have no illusion on being able to move to commodities between the pumps and dumps and before inflation kicks in.
daveinsv (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 11:28 pm
Besides SRS, is shorting KRE another way to play the CRE bust? Any thoughts on which would be better?
Dave this is just an opinion ... I don't know if it's the thinness of the market, or what, but it's a recipe for getting burned for me. I'm long GLD and SLV and have tried so very hard to use TBT but have never had the guts to hang in there. UCO for days. GLD/SLV for weeks to months.
re: CRE, I think fondly of the literally hundreds of times this fellow at the bank tried to convince me to buy some super-senior-preferred-snazziness CRE bundles with minty-fresh features. "You literally cannot go wrong!" The rate quoted was a whole 50 basis points over a CD then (2006, 2007). Last time I stopped at that bank a few weeks ago his office had been cleaned out. I had started reading CR and continued buying CDs instead.
Never did understand what he was doing in my bank. Like some sort of prion or something.
Duke of Con Dao - It takes connections...
Oh yes, I know that deal, unfortunately all I have are friends in low places.
Cambodia would be interesting, but I do know its dangerous in many ways and I don't know how well I would deal with it long term.
Hey, anything new on the King of Thailand, there is nothing in the news here in the States.
I hate to say it, I do not want to be any were in that country when he passes away. I visit there a lot and you can not under estimate how important he is to the average Thai, and I think that place will explode when he passes. (Which I truly hope will be many years from now, it's going to be ugly!)
NervousRex -
It's too late at night to be looking up Prion.
That was a shark feeding off of the stupid and weak.
Why am I thinking of shark tail soup right now.
There's no way to "play" public markets as a retail "investor". Stick to your local, private markets as a local investor and stay away from anything where you don't personally know the other investors and the market your acquisition is doing business in.
Merrill never wanted to bring "Wall Street to Main Street'. it just wanted to collect your local money to give it buying power in the public markets.
volker the viking -
Oh that is just wrong. LOL, but so wrong.
Forget financial literacy, they need to teach common sense in grade schools.
Social Engineering is such a threat, image if that was a Nuke plant!
You know this is CR's blog and he can do whatever he wants with it. But really, if you look at what he has accomplished, you would join me in the "Have Faith in CR" group.
He has attracted top talent,...for free! He was able to pick a superb wingman in Tanta. How many others do you think would have shared control? (Let alone recognize the talent.)
He's attracted very very intelligent and also some very very interesting people with diverse backgrounds and skill sets. And the really cool thing is that the truly intelligent aren't dicks about it.
Which means that everybody feels comfortable in chiming in. Yes, that leads to schoolyard behavior sometimes, but it also keeps it from being some wacky ivory tower thing.
And this is all within a relatively open forum! I'm amazed we haven't seen more nuts around here. CR has managed to keep it going with a light touch warning people now and then about offensive comments. I laugh when I read commenters worried about censorship! Really, after reading what manages to pass muster, how much more abrasive does something need to be?
I don't know about CR's other traits, but his EQ is off the charts.
Kauai....
haven't heard anything new on the King outside of the rumor from a good source I posted last week. from what I hear he has some major heart problems.
yes, I would not want to be there when he goes either, his son, the playboy is seen as a joke...
as for Cambodia being dangerous, not like it was say 10 years ago... but occasionally I hear stories of westerners being robbed at gunpoint, think
NYC around 1990.
as for me I know why I landed in 'Nam nearly a year ago but my current raison d'etre here is shaky...
as for this blog I tried to start reading Ted Hope's blog, he's a major indie film producer, to get me off the CR
smack but reading about studios versus the indies doesn't do the trick... (except that story on Ari Emanuel in the
Times made me slightly nauseous... esp. the part that Charlie Rose had all 3 brothers on his show - and the
one brother, the bio-ethicist, said his brothers had these goals to make life better on the planet....
Duke of Con Dao -
Thanks, I go to Thailand on vacation a lot, last year I went to a friends wedding up north, that was awesome and a trip at the same time.
I know people there both native and ex-pats, and they expect me to visit soon, I would just rather avoid what I suspect may happen, but I really hope will not.
Thanks, please let me know if you hear anything, we don't get any news here on that area unless it deals with sex, drugs, or other nasty stuff.
Carnap (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:34 am
My comments are related to the topic. And the point is simple, CR is trying to paddle upstream. He allowed the comments sections to degrade into a chat room, now he has to deal with the outcome.
/b/ was never good.
There will always someone ready to puff up with outrage, because being "shocked, simply shocked" has less to do with actually being shocked and more to do with the results your mock indignation brings when it's deployed as a weapon to elicit a response from the Big Mother.
Adding an "abuse button" is going to do little.
It'll give you a mechanism to tattle on people you dislike -- a valuable mechanism other than quality of output to promote yourself in the community by getting rid of competitors. That seems like it's about your speed, since you don't have any quality of output to speak for you. As always, meta-competition inside the formal structure brings greater results than quality of work product.
Don't short this market yet. The SPX may keep rallying for another 3 months or 3 years? who knows. pimple faced Geithner & bernanke run the show. Thay are sleezy, yes, but the stock market loves free money. wait till the distribution sets in. then short. We could see the SPX at 1200 -1300 b4 we get a nice bear market again.
Futures are always up slightly.
Nemo, at least we have futures.
best to all and thanks for participating!
Oil just quantitatively eased its way above $72/bbl.
Aw, gee, Dad...
That works until you move to a smoke and mirrors services based economy running a substantial trade deficit."
Tell me about it, been yelling for years to death ears.
"Have you ever read any of Remarque's books? Wiki. He wrote 'All Quiet On The Western Front' but also a number of very good books about Germany in the 20s & 30s. A 'Night In Lisbon' a novelized account of refugees trying to escape Nazi Germany. The 'Black Obelisk' is about living during the 'Great Inflation'. Both are fabulous reads."
Nah, maybe I should. Grandpa doesn't remember much about the 20's, he was a young kid. But came to age in the mid-late 30's. Hitler's beliefs about the United States changed as well. He thought the United States was a ally of the Germans in the 1920's, but changed in the 1930's to the United States was invented by Jews to destroy and pillage Europe. That is what they were taught by the late 30's in Hitler youth camps as they prepared for war.
Of course after grandpa left Germany to come into the US after the war(he survived the Russian front) he joked about FDR's NRA and called it "Roosevelt youth".
Broward-
You ask the right questions. (Just got thru reading the last thread).
CR-
Just want to say thanks for the resource. I probably don't do it enough.
Oil just quantitatively eased its way above $72/bbl
Some believe a new global boom is beginning. I have actually read that they think the US could have 4-5% growth by years end.
Thanks again to CR and Koop.
RE: abusive posters: Besides reporting in comment section is there a way that you can see who gets the most "ignore" clicks? That would be pretty indicitive.....
Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 8:35 pm
NorkaWest -
That tuned out real well for the Argentines.
Oh I was not proposing it, more of a what might be next thing.
My point was the Government is addicted to my money, and they want their fix, and either they break the habit or we are going to be indentured servants for the rest of our lives, and our children, and their children, etc.
I agree with your conclusion.
I guess I'll have to brush up on my Spanish.
We are looking more and more Argentine (not Japanese) every day.
Often I think it is better to keep my mouth shut and let people think I'm an idiot, than to open it and remove all doubt.
Institutionalization is moving right along, I see.
Thanks Ken, also. I know how hard it is to keep working on something until it gets "stable" and I wanted to commend you on all your efforts and patience (mostly with our demands) as well. I hope you are able to translate it to a broader success.
Anyone watching Richard Posner on Charlie Rose? Regarding future he said his "main concern was whether the United States was governable." Rose reacted but didn't press him on that . For those not on east coast worth watching or taping. Begins 30 mins into program.
Comrade-Dope jg, I hate being the enforcer - I like a free flow of information. But I think a reminder every now and then helps.
girlbear, Ken is looking at a few things - like a report abusive comment button. Most of Ken's energy (in the free time he gives us) is spent on cool features. It is a shame we need to have to step in ... but we can't let a few people ruin the comments for everyone.
best wishes
"attacking other commenters"
I assume you mean types of personal attacks. I will continue to attack any assertions made to diminish Constitutional rights.
1 currency now -yogi, yes - you have it correct - attack the argument, not the commenter. It is more powerful that way.
best wishes.
Am I to assume you people haven't been playing nice of late?
The Devil made me do it!
I tried watching Richard Posner. But listening to that bullshit for more than 5 minutes makes me want to smash the television.
I still detest his arguments.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov, good assumption. Luckily readers are alerting me to the comments (sometimes I'm actually off line).
Most of the commenters are great all the time. And it is their comments that should be read.
best wishes
"but we can't let a few people ruin the comments for everyone." Thanks CR.
FWIW, I left visiting for awhile due to the spew of some commenters........
What will US GDP be in 2030
CR, it's your ability to address something called Bubblisimo with a perfectly straight face that keeps me attached to this site.
I missed the abusive comments,probably because I used the "Ignore" button for a couple of people who did not have a signal to noise ratio.
CalculatedRisk (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 11:56 pm
Bubblisimo Gerkinov, good assumption.
Just my 2 cents, but this place is at its best as /b/ for bankers and economists. The farther it strays from charlatans and temple whores, the less it will be what makes it excellent.
"Some believe a new global boom is beginning. "
It's a boom in Global Denial. We're experiencing a denial bubble. The air will be taken out of the bubble when the capacity for oil storage hits it's peak and the speculators actually have to do something with oceans of the stuff.
I have to say that the comments software is the best it's ever been, with second place going to Ken's own CRC. Excellent work, absolutely excellent!
Comrade-Dope jg -
Of course after grandpa left Germany to come into the US after the war(he survived the Russian front) he joked about FDR's NRA and called it "Roosevelt youth".
I went to the NRA museum last time I was on the east coast, and it did have that goal. National lunch programs, PE classes, marksmanship training. He was concerned the U.S. would be caught flat footed again.
Now days they need to dis-arm the gang who are better armed and in some cases trained than the police, The We is getting the nation off the couch for a minute or two, and they have to cut the calories in school lunches to about 1/3 to solve the obesity problem. So yes I can say this is not the 1930's repeated.
I missed the abusive comments,probably because I used the "Ignore" button for a couple of people who did not have a signal to noise ratio.
Ya I missed it too - but that was because you hardcore doomers are getting me paranoid - so I've been cutting firewood like a crazy man the last week or so. Only stop in to take a break from the woodlot. Who says you all aren't having an economic effect - just ask the mechanic rebuilding my chainsaw.
girlbear -
RE: abusive posters: Besides reporting in comment section is there a way that you can see who gets the most "ignore" clicks? That would be pretty indicitive.....
I like to think of myself as annoying at times, but not abusive.
The good point is people tell you your ...... them off, so I log off and mellow out, but really some of this stuff is like religion and politics. There is just no way people are not going to get worked up. But self control is needed, and if not, for the good of the many the few .ss.... need to go, or at least be cut for a short time to mellow out.
"The We is getting the nation off the couch for a minute or two, and they have to cut the calories in school lunches to about 1/3 to solve the obesity problem"
Maybe Obama can market his own workout program for kids mandetory in schools.
Maybe Obama can market his own workout program for kids mandetory in schools.
As someone who spends a lot of time hauling stuff in the wheelbarrow, I can vouch for its effects.
racial -
As someone who spends a lot of time hauling stuff in the wheelbarrow, I can vouch for it's effects.
That's what you get for having a farm for a yard that I dream of.
Growth in what exactly?? Blue tarps and cat food??
I hear you dryfly.
The doom has been pervasive to point of disturbing, so I've been letting it alone a bit for mental well-being.
That said, I think that I have to get back into it in order to keep ahead of the game.
Damned TBT. Too early, too early...
Senator Palantine: The people are rising, the people are ready to rule.
I'm just hoping that comment readers will spend a few moments carefully considering the subtle sarcasm and/or black humor that's often employed by this intelligent crowd before complaining about content.
Gee CR, can you grant Jas an honorary exception.
I am soooo used to being called a B&B D*pe.
Especially as treasuries keep falling.
As for the definition of depression, that is when I lose my job.
Someday this war's gonna end...
om Stone (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 8:59 pm
I missed the abusive comments,probably because I used the "Ignore" button for a couple of people who did not have a signal to noise ratio.
This got me curious. I have only 4 people on my ignore list and see almost none of the abuse. Seeing as 1 is there for personal reasons I'd say we all suspect who the others are.
I'm certain I'm in the minority, but, i always enjoy "those that would be ignored'. Why? It brings out the other end of the logic spectrum in defense. It's that group that keeps me coming back. Of course, an internal "ignore f(x)" helps.
RockyR- I don't know who postulated oil dropping before the end of summer first (me or EHP). but, since I haven't seen him/her in awhile, I'll carry the flag for our cause and maintain our position. However, I haven't taken a position financially so it doesn't really count. Good luck.
$72 oil.
Is there any way oil doesn't go over $100 with the same old oil meme going strong?
"$72 oil.
Is there any way oil doesn't go over $100 with the same old oil meme going strong?
Yes. I'd take profits now. What happened to Jas? Did he get stoned by the CR people and die? Or did his loneliness get to him? Did he hang himself in Bangkok?
TJ and The Bear -
I'm just hoping that comment readers will spend a few moments carefully considering the subtle sarcasm and/or black humor.
Or in my case just poor taste and gutter humor, hey it's all I know.
That's what you get for having a farm for a yard that I dream of.
Keep an eye out for an aBandominium. Guerilla style urban gardening.
I had Michael pegged as an idiot from day one and I did my best not to feed the troll. However, he posted a link recently which I found extremely informative and have passed along to many people, even though his comment posting the link was typically useless. I never use the ignore function, but some days there are too many comments, so I skip to my favorite usual suspects.
Oh, and Pavel-
Congrats on the book print. Hope it does well. If it's ok with CR, provide a link so the commentariat can purchase!
w (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 9:16 pm
$72 oil.
Is there any way oil doesn't go over $100 with the same old oil meme going strong?.
Remember, oil is a commodity. One barrel of oil too many, you get a glut and the price crashes. One barrel too few, you get a shortage and the price spikes.
Need to try to get back in was brought home today while doing college financing prep.
Eldest likes a small VA university and we were on that site this AM as well as on site for her 529 monies. We were able to pull together a very general feel for what the loan picture will have to be if there's no scholarships, grants, etc.
That university site also gave the cost for this year's tuition/room&board/etc.
Later, was examining the SallieMae site and it extrapolated the cost for that particular school in several years. Money was obviously higher and fine print stated that based on historic college inflation rate of 5.7%/annually.
I actually laughed and wondered if it would actually be less in the new economic world.
BTW, Bankrate has excellent calculator for college, but SallieMae does a great job with walking you through financing alternatives and looking at financials of individual colleges.
hong konger -
Since you volunteered, care to post why?
I dumped all of my oil / Nat Gas around 3 weeks ago.
I don't mind being early, but if oil hits $100 I will be questioning my sanity.
That and the impact on the current economy and what it will do to any hopes of growth.
"Or in my case just poor taste and gutter humor, hey it's all I know."
Are you Oscar the Grouch? Or maybe a Garbage Pail Kid? The only good gutter humor, btw, is the the kind that makes you laugh so hard your heroin high goes away and your crack addiction kicks in. "Screw the black tar, where is my glass pipe?"
"Did he get stoned by the CR people and die?"
Not worth it. He might be in a corner weeping for his Treasuries.
I never use the ignore function
Ignore creates discontinuity in perception.
I do not make people screw themselves. It is their choice
//The Devil made me do it!//
Have never used the ignore button.
Just see the commenter and typically gloss over. But occasionally there are nuggets.
OT, but watched House last night and when a character referred to a butt plug, middle asked me what one was. Told him I didn't know, but that I thought that they probably came in gold...
"He might be in a corner weeping for his Treasuries."
Not the self-proclaimed Prince of Bonds. Jaswant is lonely.
Alright Elvis, O king of TBT.
Is it too late to get back into it?
We need a new "Energy Stimulus Package". $3T sounds about right. Not windmills either, coal, nat gas, OIL baby.
It could take the form of prepaid Exxon/Mobil credit cards, and have our pictures on them, like that commercial for Capital One.
Hell, can't be any worse policy than what we have been getting for the last 8-9 years to date, and I know I would feel good about it.
I think you will like CNBC.. They tell you what you want to hear with good looking anchors and cool audio-visual effects.
//I left visiting for awhile due to the spew of some commenters//
"Alright Elvis, O king of TBT.
Is it too late to get back into it?"
No. It is still early on. SRS is the question. When CRE is so bad how does it linger so low? Is it a homerun buy right now or is the deck dealt from the bottom?
To any of the tech geeks out there. I've am playing around with a jail-broken Iphone 3g.
Pretty amazing what you can do with it. Really amazing UI as usual with Apple products. On top of that fully accessible now via ssh, any unix package you want available for it, tethering a laptop, ability to backround any application. Gmake, cvs, java, c, c++ compiler etc.. Basically anything under the sun is available for it.
I have it running a firefly media server and any other computer on your network running ITunes will see the media remotely.
Very, very impressive what you can do with it.
"I do not make people screw themselves. It is their choice"
I lack the female organs to screw myself. However, I could sodomize myself given my epic proportions.
Been there..done that. It is certainly a very well designed and reasonably priced device.
//To any of the tech geeks out there. I've am playing around with a jail-broken Iphone 3g.//
"Very, very impressive what you can do with it."
Many women have told me that.
Yes Elvis, the jumpsuit does make your butt look big.
Work on wall street?
//However, I could sodomize myself given my epic proportions.//
Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 11:02 pm
Now days they need to dis-arm the gang who are better armed and in some cases trained than the police, The We is getting the nation off the couch for a minute or two, and they have to cut the calories in school lunches to about 1/3 to solve the obesity problem. So yes I can say this is not the 1930's repeated.
It's one of nature's dirty tricks that the food which is a poor choice for you from a health perspective is, or has become, through the work of the food industry, both the most tempting and one of the lowest-cost options. Interestingly it is also some of the most sophisticated food we can produce. A diet of fresh produce, which is relatively cheap to grow oneself, is a very expensive purchase option even though producing it is so primitive and easy, with logistical problems of spoilage and transport. Yet a diet of manufactured food containing artificial colors and flavors which requires millions of dollars worth of capital equipment and large amounts of engineering expertise to produce is one of the cheapest lifestyle options for food. An interesting set of market forces.
"Yes Elvis, the jumpsuit does make your butt look big."
That isn't the only thing that looks big. They don't call me "Elvis the Pelvis" without a reason.
If I did not learn how to deal with abusers and idiotic people at a young age, I think I would have had a very annoying life. You only ban or use restraining orders on the true sicko's, and even then it does not work unless you can throw them in jail. Somehow people think the Internet should be better.
Of course I do treasure this site and what I am able to learn just being a fly on the wall, being a gag fly is even better to where I can ask stupid questions or make stupid statements and get schooled. From that I do my own research to decide who is full of it.
Jas tends to get scarce when treasuries tank - at least he diversified into high desert real estate...
higher rates really are the phantom menace - everyone should own a little tbt, because that will be just about your only consolation prize as U3 and the TNX race to 15% next year... "government bubble" is indeed the emergimg meme... all manner of state entities have similar revenue-to-valuation issues as the most bloated techs a decade ago
Nobody wants to learn the easy way
Canyon, Citadel Ride Convertibles Resurgence to Recoup Losses
Canyon, Citadel Ride Convertibles to Recoup Losses (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
By Pierre Paulden and Katherine Burton
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Convertible bonds that punished hedge funds in 2008 are driving returns at Canyon Partners and Citadel Investment Group LLC and helping companies from JetBlue Airways Corp. to Alliance Data Systems Corp. raise capital.
Canyon, the $14.4 billion investment firm run by former Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc. bankers, gained more than 51 percent in its convertible fund through May 22, according to a May 29 letter sent to investors. Citadel posted a 21 percent return in its two main funds through May, aided by convertible bets.
Green shoots.. my ass!
China’s Exports Fall by Record After Global Demand Dries Up
China’s Exports Fall by Record After Global Demand Dries Up - Bloomberg.com
By Bloomberg News
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- China’s exports fell by a record as the global recession cut demand for goods produced by the world’s third-largest economy.
Overseas sales dropped 26.4 percent in May from a year earlier, the customs bureau said in a statement on its Web site today. That compares with the median estimate for a decline of 23 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 15 economists, and a 22.6 percent contraction in April.
CNBC said the 10 year auction was awful, but I didn't think so. And bonds rallied somewhat after the auction, but couldn't muster much more in front of $11 billion long bonds tomorrow. I actually like the bond market here. I'm a buyer here and would buy more on further backup.
ResistanceIsFeudal -
My problem is that if I eat too much of this 'new food', I actually start feeling like cr.. I can really feel my body shutting down.
So now I get my red meat fix, etc by trying to cook at home, or hit a few select plate lunch places that cook real and good food.
"China’s exports fell by a record as the global recession cut demand for goods produced by the world’s third-largest economy."
The world economy is still reliant on the USA. Maybe next cycle it won't be, but during this Depression everyone is screwed because America is.
If democrats had half a brain and supported gun rights, the republicans would have never remained in power for so many years.
How to Stop Socialized Health Care- Five arguments Republicans must make.
How to Stop Socialized Health Care - WSJ.com
By KARL ROVE
It was a sobering breakfast with one of the smartest Republicans on Capitol Hill. We can fix a lot of bad stuff President Barack Obama might do, he told me. But if Mr. Obama signs into law a "public option," government-run insurance program as part of health-care reform we won't be able to undo the damage.
I'd go the Republican member of Congress one further: If Democrats enact a public-option health-insurance program, America is on the way to becoming a European-style welfare state. To prevent this from happening, there are five arguments Republicans must make.
Kahuna,
Check out this horrorshow.
cryptogon.com » Doctors Warn: Avoid Genetically Modified Food
Hong Konger - ehp and made an erroneous bet about oil for s+gs. He took oil@50 within 6wks, I took the opposite end: oil@70 within 6 weeks. I didn't put any money behind my bet. I wish that I had!
CR - you have a great community here. It's no doubt the envy of many other comepetent bloggers. You have a really, really great site. You and Ken have done a smash-up job. Let's just please (bloggers and community members both), for the sake of preserving what's here, not piss in the proverbial chili by becoming overzealous with the moderation.
Singapore has a public plan.
Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 11:39 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal -
) but don't find myself eating there often despite the convenience. I also like to cook though I am very far from a skilled chef. When I first got here I ate dinner out quite often there and noticed a big difference in overall feeling of health. I probably have my upbringing to blame - eating dinner at a restaurant or ordering in pizza was a treat not a regular occurence and most meals were prepared at home.
My problem is that if I eat too much of this 'new food', I actually start feeling like cr.. I can really feel my body shutting down.
So now I get my red meat fix, etc by trying to cook at home, or hit a few select plate lunch places that cook real and good food.
I live close to a couple of bars with the typical bar cuisine (aka various fatty fried food combinations that evolved to taste good with alcohol and are awful on an empty stomach
Let's just please (bloggers and community members both), for the sake of preserving what's here, not piss in the proverbial chili by becoming overzealous with the moderation.
Thanks, Rocky.
Now I know what to put in the Cincinnati Chili for that little extra something.
still waiting for some insight here on the recent extreme nat gas/crude disjunct
"To prevent this from happening, there are five arguments Republicans must make."
homedad43 (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 11:47 pm
Thanks, Rocky.
Now I know what to put in the Cincinnati Chili for that little extra something.
It would definitely give your chili that "personal touch".
How has american style kleptocracy worked out? While I do think that the european welfare state model is too restrictive and static, the current american kleptocractic model is even worser. There has to be better way.
/If Democrats enact a public-option health-insurance program, America is on the way to becoming a European-style welfare state.//
"Oil just quantitatively eased its way above $72/bbl. "
I have been hearing from a lot of people about the pain at the pump. People are really starting to feel it. Sure, it has gotten some press, but not as much as I think it deserves, it is going to be a real crimp on any hope of recovery.
This is a much bigger story than the rise in yields. It may not sound like much, but an increase from 1.60 a gallon to 2.60 is a 60%+ rise. I think people underestimated the positive impact that $1.60 a gallon gas had.
Why did BB see the need to cheapen the dollar by buying Treasuries? What exactly was the point? I can understanding stepping into the MBS market a little bit to keep spreads in line, but $1.25T and $300B in Treasuries?
Just plain stupid. A HUGE overreaction. Totally unnecessary.
Why did BB see the need to cheapen the dollar by buying Treasuries
Relax, that isn't causing oil to rise. Put it this way, the same thing that is forcing the dollar to fall is also causing oil to rise: end of the trade. No more deleveraging, people flee the saftey of dollars.
Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other - Benjamin Franklin
Humans prefer cockiness to expertise
Humans prefer cockiness to expertise - life - 10 June 2009 - New Scientist
10 June 2009 by Peter Aldhous
EVER wondered why the pundits who failed to predict the current economic crisis are still being paid for their opinions? It's a consequence of the way human psychology works in a free market, according to a study of how people's self-confidence affects the way others respond to their advice.
The research, by Don Moore of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, shows that we prefer advice from a confident source, even to the point that we are willing to forgive a poor track record. Moore argues that in competitive situations, this can drive those offering advice to increasingly exaggerate how sure they are. And it spells bad news for scientists who try to be honest about gaps in their knowledge.
I know this is late and all, but due to business travel I was only one a one-way window to Calculated Risk. I posted something on zero hedge comments...
I was very disappointed by the Supreme Court's ruling not to hear the Indiana Pension fund challenge to the auto-bailout. If one read's the TARP public law; in no way does it allow the Executive branch to spend the money on automobile companies. It specifically calls out "financial instruments" (or something like that..). It also specifically states whatever is bought under TARP had to be issued prior to March 14, 2008. In nowhere in the TARP law is there any authorization for any of the funds that have gone to automakers. Bush did this as well as Obama, so both parties are at fault. Additionally, in December the House passed the authorization for the automaker bailouts; but the Senate did not pass any bill. Therefore, all these automaker bailouts are unauthorized.
By allowing Treasury to act in such a manner; the Supreme Court has failed in their constitutional duty. If one allows the broad interpretation of the law, Geithner can found the "Geithner Striking Features Beauty Line" of cosmetics; and he can fund it with TARP funds so long as he sends a letter; without any oversight, without any strings. But clearly; if you read the Public Law, it specifically calls out "financial instruments" and "financial paper". One would argue; okay we can buy the Chrysler Finance and GM finance arms; but clearly not the effin' automakers!
So when do us taxpayers get to challenge and who has standing? I believe the bond-holder issue is a red herring... well its an issue but the bigger issue is the illegal use of funds. Also, if TARP is used to buy "financial instruments" issued prior to March 14, 2008; how the hell do we end up using TARP funds and TARP money to buy stakes in "New Chrysler" and "New GM"?
This is clearly illegal; yet no one has been pointing this out. We have a media that's job is to point out this shit. Even most posters here aren't aware of it.
I was truly hoping the Supreme Court would hear the challenge that using TARP funds on automakers was clearly legal. If a car-maker is a "financial instrument" than everything else is as well.
I just don't think my doctor would understand.
When he asked if my shoulder was hurting, (It was killing me), and I told him I had messed it up on a bad landing long ago, and if a storm was coming or I was stressed it would hurt like a ......
Needless to say he looked at me like I was nuts, and I have been to see that idiot for around 5 years. Though I may have to go and see him when and if they come out with a vaccine for the swine flu.
ghostfaceinvestah -
If the interest rates go up, or the flow of free money to the banks stops. A lot of banks are toast. To keep interest rates low, the FED has to buy.
"was very disappointed by the Supreme Court's ruling not to hear the Indiana Pension fund challenge to the auto-bailout"
Politically motivated by the Republican party. They had no case. Personally, I find it a stupid move among the Republicans. Maybe their first in several months.
If you disagree with me; point with me the public law that allows us to spend money on the automakers. It doesn't exist.
Kauai-
Well, it was an intuitive guess, really, based on relative values and intuition about what producers might HAVE to do (that's why I didn't place any money on it).
Oil and gas are commodities that can be stored but not brought to production at even rates. Like a supertanker, their production schedules can't be turned on a dime. It was obvious at $120 they'd start internally talking about reducing production as those prices were crippling (I realize that sounds ridiculous at first blush, but, think about how a commodity producer would think about demand in the case of a necessary good in terms of intertemporal political consequences). However, it takes roughly 6 months for the schedules to reflect that ultimate decision. In any case, by my calcs, we've/they've finally reduced production enough to absorb the available storage and there'll be a significant drop off of the leveraged players around end July/end August to account for the inventory buildup and reduced production.
I might add that exploration and seismic work is continuing apace and there is no drop off in demand for those services.
Anyway, that's my thesis. It may be off a few months, but, it's based on an intutive interpretation of what I believe to be higher order rational decision making.
"Just plain stupid. A HUGE overreaction. Totally unnecessary. "
not at all. nyfed candy-store treasuries are the means by which balance sheets have been repaired at wfc, bac, c, rf, gs, pnc, etc. just those names alone (alll of which have at least doubled off lows, and almost all of which took part in hank-and-ben shotgun weddings) are infinitely more important than joe six pack. and, in any case, any and all manner of asset or commodity inflation is a damn good thing in the $50 tril entitlement big picture.
YLSP -
You get to have a say in around 2 years at the next election.
Of course here in Hawaii, it is democratic block votes bought and paid for by the unions. Ever feel your vote just does not count?
What about the 15 trillion plus federal backing of our banksters?
//If you disagree with me; point with me the public law that allows us to spend money on the automakers. It doesn't exist.//
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 11:54 pm
Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other - Benjamin Franklin
Humans prefer cockiness to expertise
It has pretty deep roots... after all, look at the name: cockiness. Expertise is the new arrival and weaker younger brother here.
K_Kahuna: I would never ignore you....
Once upon a time you could read the comments section and see interesting debate on matters, now almost entirely noise by an established crowd of people. Every thread is populated with chatter about the markets.
CR your comments section has become little more than a banal chat room, its unfortunate. The fact that you hardly participant in them says it all. You should have moved this nonsense into an actual chat room or forum long ago.
hong konger-
Thank you, I'll digest that later.
Just finished some of my todo list, and one of them was to float an almost empty keg, clean it and fill it back up with an IPA.
Need to tone down now, don't want to offend anyone.
I assume you mean types of personal attacks. I will continue to attack any assertions made to diminish Constitutional rights.
yogi, thank you for pointing that out so early (and I'm glad to see CR agreed with the concept).
If and when this thing ever shakes out violently, the Constitution may well be our last line of defense.
If it's worth dying for, it's certainly worth engaging in verbal slugfests.
I realize that means some will see me as a 'useful idiot," but there remain matters more important than opinions.
"I have actually read that they think the US could have 4-5% growth by years end."
Where? Seems unlikely, but as someone who is unemployed I would not frown on it.
CR has run some good analysis on the "tax effects" of oil. You'll have to go back several weeks to find the latest.
@homedad: be careful not to use too much. You wouldn't want to oversalt your chili now wouldya?
as opposed to a place where you are directed to think in a particular way?
//CR your comments section has become little more than a banal chat room, its unfortunate. //
"Every thread is populated with chatter about the markets."
One man's trash is another man's treasure. Market commentary is a key attraction for me.
"This is clearly illegal; yet no one has been pointing this out."
the constitution has been in sorry shape since wilson, and w's 'signing statements' just turned tragedy into comedy.
any oath made to defend it might as well be a pledge to serve flying purple monkeys.
I'd feel safer fending off the rogues with one of Pavel's poems.
"If you disagree with me"
I disagree with you because you are trying to say what it legal or not. It is your opinion and not fact.
"as opposed to a place where you are directed to think in a particular way?"
No as opposed to a place where there is a meaningful yet goal directed debate on the topic of the post.
"No more deleveraging, people flee the safety of dollars."
It would seem to me that oil futures, or commodities in general seem safer than the dollar. But that might just be me.
No as opposed to a place where there is a meaningful yet goal directed debate on the topic of the post.
Plenty of free speech zones out there. Enjoy.
and you will be the arbitrator of that?
//No as opposed to a place where there is a meaningful yet goal directed debate on the topic of the post.//
One man's trash is another man's treasure.
Corrected -
One man's trash is another Jas's treasury.
Sigh.
Yo, sportsfan, I was just poking fun at you the other day.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 12:03 am
as opposed to a place where you are directed to think in a particular way?
//CR your comments section has become little more than a banal chat room, its unfortunate. //
Any cult worth its salt needs a charismatic megalomaniac with delusions of godhood. Any volunteers?
did anyone hear what Jim Grant had to say on CNBC?
sadly, I can't get Charlie Rose over here... what did Posner say that was BS? 1 Currency?
make a counter argument against his argument... doesn't help much by calling it BS, no?
I think I need to pack my bags and get moving...(maybe I have a touch of that David Carradine feeling....) nearly a year in Asia again, makes a man go a bit nuts...
either it's the gangster governments or else its (esp. here in Cambo) the NGO mafia... gets tiring meeting
people who make 90 to 140 a year + nice apt and maid and listen to them tell me how they are saving the
world....
He has lost less (%) than the invested endowments of ivy league universities .
//One man's trash is another Jas's treasury.//
"Any cult worth its salt needs a charismatic megalomaniac with delusions of godhood. Any volunteers? "
Mr. Burns?
a pledge to serve flying purple monkeys.
Hollywood Hack is a Federal Reserve insider.
I have a full schedule.
//Any cult worth its salt needs a charismatic megalomaniac with delusions of godhood. Any volunteers?//
CR your comments section has become little more than a banal chat room, its unfortunate.
One big difference now is that instead of debating what may come, we now find ourselves in the process where there is nothing to debate.
The Government is fully involved and we may howl at the moon but right now nothing is going to stop them, or change the direction.
You know once financial meltdown, economic Pearl Harbor, National interest language is used you are on a slippery slope. Same thing happened after 9/11 and people complained but the path was set. Same thing is happening now.
And for me personally, I do not mind hard core debate, or more laid back free flowing discussions that dance around an issue.
Just because you don't see the connecting lines does not mean they are not there.
But once again, the personnel attacks are inappropriate and need to be left in the grade school playground.
"One man's trash is another man's treasure. Market commentary is a key attraction for me. "
Of course and the market drivel is likely to attract more commentary and traffic. From that point of view, its fine. But form a more intellectual point of view its fairly vacuous. CR obviously decided long ago that traffic mattered more than reasoned discourse. That's fine, just don't be surprised when your comments section turns into a school yard that is the logical outcome.
I believe free speech should be free just like beer and ponies.
ResistanceIsFeudal -
Any cult worth its salt needs a charismatic megalomaniac with delusions of godhood. Any volunteers?
Oh, oh, me!
Oh wait, could I apply for a religious tax exemption?
But only if CR does not want it.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 12:11 am
He has lost less (%) than the invested endowments of ivy league universities .
//One man's trash is another Jas's treasury.//
In this age of shrinking endowments I hope to see less Viagra,Cialis,etc ads on television. Particularly at mealtime. But I fear these pharmaceutical ads will join death and taxes as one of life's little inevitabilities
"But form a more intellectual point of view its fairly vacuous."
carnap
Yawn. Your words make me bored and tired. I will take a nap in my bed, since the car is already occupied.
carnap writes:-
"That's fine, just don't be surprised when your comments section turns into a school yard that is the logical outcome. "
You take the good with the bad. I had a lot of fun on the school yard. Best times, really.
ResistanceIsFeudal,
You should try them recreationally.. low doses. Lot's of fun!!
//In this age of shrinking endowments I hope to see less Viagra,Cialis,etc ads on television.//
The fact that you hardly participant in them says it all.
Um, it's "participate", and CR's comments have always been few and far between.
Byzantine-
Do you live in the Pittsburgh area? Your descriptions of local politics, economics etc sountd very familiar I live in the north hills.
I will take a nap in my bed,
The porcelain is taken, too?
Duke of Con Dao -
NGO mafia..
people who make 90 to 140 a year + nice apt and maid and listen to them tell me how they are saving the
world....
And where can I get one of those positions? I don't mind saving the world if I can.
"The porcelain is taken, too? "
My bed is made of porcelain and my toilet is a mattress. Go figure.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 12:18 am
ResistanceIsFeudal,
You should try them recreationally.. low doses. Lot's of fun!!
//In this age of shrinking endowments I hope to see less Viagra,Cialis,etc ads on television.//
Always amuses me when a "serious" drug advertised or popularized for medicinal purposes ends up having far more recreational value... Ritalin anyone?
Elvis (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 12:21 am
"The porcelain is taken, too? "
My bed is made of porcelain and my toilet is a mattress. Go figure.
Still laughing at this one
Been there, done that. Those. Whatever.
"One big difference now is that instead of debating what may come, we now find ourselves in the process where there is nothing to debate. The Government is fully involved and we may howl at the moon but right now nothing is going to stop them, or change the direction."
Firstly, this has little to do with what I'm talking about. Secondly, there are many things that can be done. But Americans seem more interested in complaining about things from home, then actually doing anything. But that is another issue entirely.
Why not!
//Ritalin anyone?//
"But that is another issue entirely."
My favorite issue is the Pam Anderson one when she was Playmate of the Year.
thanks for adding more self-righteous noise, carnap
Elvis -
I believe free speech should be free just like beer and ponies.
Don't care about the ponies, but leave me my beer. Oh wait sin tax's......
The latest rounds of taxes stand to take quite a few micr-brewies "small biz" operations out. Hope you all like Foreign owned Bud light.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 12:24 am
Why not!
//Ritalin anyone?//
Indeed. I wasn't loading the statement with moral value. In fact this particular comment was as amoral as a Wall Street trader.
Yo, sportsfan, I was just poking fun at you the other day.
Go right ahead. I am, like you, in many ways an open book. That makes it easy for others to poke.
carnap (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 10:23 pm
...But Americans seem more interested in complaining about things from home, then actually doing anything. But that is another issue entirely.
Ahhhh, my favorite Europhile is back with a new handle.
It is late. Good night now.
Eventually this board will evolve spin-offs, with different styles and foci.
There is still good topical discussion, but there are also broader running threads, which make this a better discussion.
"A Talmudic maxim instructs with respect to the Scripture: 'Turn it over, and turn it over, for all is therein.' . . . Divinely inspired text may contain the answers to all earthly questions, but the Due Process Clause most assuredly does not."
Justice Antonin Scalia
I find Scalia somewhat closed-minded.
Werner.. how have you been!
//But Americans seem more interested in complaining about things from home, then actually doing anything. But that is another issue entirely.//
Elvis (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 12:28 am
It is late. Good night now.
Enjoy the cold porcelain comforts
My advice is never use the constitution for your political agenda. Libertarians,Austrians and people who call themselves "Constitutionalists" do this all the time and it is one of the big problems why I can't stand them. They dictate what the constitution is and then by force want everybody else to follow them or they are a "collectivist". Even if their view is wrong. That leads to what Jack London called 'the iron heel".
It is just a excuse for their lust of unregulated capitalism and monoply control It is a classic use of intellectual monotheism that the marxists used 100 years ago to get into power among the laboring classes. Jefferson himself bent the consitution and made snap judgements that blurred the line of consitutionality. Yet, he is considered a hero. America has done well when knowing when the constitution is being harmed and when it is being preserved. Yet, we have some people that want to enforce minority tryanny. You are wrong.
In my view, Capitalism can only function when the economy is properly regulated by honorable people in government and social programs to help move the wealth around the ladder. Capitalism has a long history of failing to do this by its actors(the capitalists) and as the industrial revolution went along, it got more exposed than ever leading toward President Tafts own advisers that they worried about 'socialist" revolution thanks to the poverty in America.
Right now, we don't have honorable people in government and we have crypto-intellectuals on the internet and blogs crying doom on everything that goes on to try and "will the people to their side". Fact is, it is sickening. It completely ruins debate and sends us into madhouse of never ending garbage.
And Era's End it really ticks me off when people intentionally talk past other people on the Internet. It's the problem with trying to have a reasonable discussion.
I'm asking to see the public statute that authorizes funds for the automakers. Doesn't exist! That's what I was hoping the Supreme Court would rule on... "Hey; these funds that have been flowing this way since December... the public law never allows them... and Executive branch shouldn't make laws where you can spend the money on whatever you want".
Oh go ahead with that "this is your opinion" crap. Is there some law that you have to act like a hack on message boards if you disagree with someone?
This is what I looked up a few nights ago:
The definition section is very interesting. Do you want to know what I found out? Definition of institutions eligible for TARP money; a "financial institution" defined as "any institution, but not limited to any bank, savings association, credit union, security broker or dealer, or insurance company, established and regulated under the laws of the United States or any State...etc".
What is the definition of a "troubled asset": residential or commercial mortgages and any securities, obligations, or other instruments that are based on or related to such mortgages, that in each case was originated or issued on or before March 14, 2008 (etc).
Under no law of Congress does it establish that the TARP money is for buying up bankrupt companies, or even bailing out the automakers. In December, there was a bill that specifically amended the TARP to include the automakers. That bill was passed by the House, but not by the Senate. Curious, eh? Notwithstanding the fact that they didn't have authorization to use TARP in this manner; Bush still went ahead with the automaker bailout-loans, and so did Obama.
The question I have after reviewing all this is: what section of public law allows our executive to spendtaxpayer money to buy up Chrysler and GM? These new companies were not issued on or before March 14, 2008; correct? In fact I think the SCOTUS should render the bailouts of the automakers illegal. It's clear that the TARP only authorizes us to buy "financial instruments"; however if you use the executive definition of a "financial instrument" that can mean anything the executive wants, as long as the executve says its a threat to financial security.
I'm quite clear that this is about the law. Additionally; none of the courts in the BK case took up the question, "Can TARP funds cover the automakers". Obama's general solicitor made a weak case that the SCOTUS shouldn't review that question basically by saying: "Supreme Court is typically not the first reviewer of these questions...". It is my hope the SCOTUS asks these questions of the administration. I don't believe it is the intent of Congress to interpret TARP so broadly... however they left gaping open loopholes (and haven't bothered to close them) which means they implicitly agree to bailing out the automakers.
I really do believe the question needs to be answered by the SCOTUS. It's hard for me to understand that this law can be passed; and our money is being spent by TARP on non-financial instruments. Of course its clear one can argue that GMAC financial and Chrysler financial are "financial instruments"; but the automakers as a whole company?
Of course I'm not sure they will rule against the executive, but I think there is a definite gripe that the law os so vague. In fact, is it possible they rule that the loophole in the TARP bill which states: "financial institution is" "any other financial instrument that the Treasury Secretary after consulting with the Chariman of the Fed determines the purchase of which is necessary to promote financial market stability, but only upon transmittal of such determination, in writing, to the appropriate committees of Congress." Again, specifically it mentions "financial instruments". There has been no review that automobile companies are "financial instruments" and I hope judges were s cratching their heads. I know why the lower courts punted on the question; but SCOTUS needs to pick up the ball and make a determination.
"thanks for adding more self-righteous noise, carnap "
My comments are related to the topic. And the point is simple, CR is trying to paddle upstream. He allowed the comments sections to degrade into a chat room, now he has to deal with the outcome. Adding an "abuse button" is going to do little.
"My comments are related to the topic." True enough. You're a troll.
It completely ruins debate and sends us into madhouse of never ending garbage.
Arf! Arf!
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Capitalists used to understand that the value was not in the representation (money) but the real factories & people. In case you hadn't noticed, they're busily destroying the very dollars they worked so hard to accumulate. The equation has to balance, equilibrium will re-assert itself. Most capitalists don't realize that 50% of their sales are a result of the taxes they pay.
What incredible stupidity this all is.
carnap -
I am deeply sorry that you consider our market drivel low brow and off topic.
Maybe I'm just not sophisticated enough to understand how the 10 year bond rate, debt levels, decreased spending and increased savings do not apply to the main focus of this board.
Now while I will be the first to say the market's is not the economy, the markets do impact housing and critical decisions that need to be made by the average person, and Governments in general. Maybe I miss understood the target of CR.
Just because a few off topic bond forming discussions take place that allow us to understand the individuals involved and where they are coming from takes place, it does not destroy the group, it enhances it. But then I tend to work best with teams, and not dictatorships.
As I explained yesterday, the appeal is still pending, only the stay was denied.
A stay is an emergency action preventing another court's order from being enforced, and can be abusive, as "justice delayed is justice denied." Unless the Indiana pension fund decides it's not worth the effort, or the case is clearly moot, I'm pretty sure the Court will hear the appeal.
People cannot learn any other way..
//What incredible stupidity this all is.//
I tend to work best with teams, and not dictatorships.
I say, I say, you're headed for a world of hurt, boy!
A world of hurt!
EE, the constitution and markets speak for themselves.
This story is a better rebuttal to your sad world view than I could hope to offer with one hand:
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broward,
ever used viagra, levitra or cialis?
YLSP,
I'm going to read and respond to your latest post, but first a couple points.
My understanding is that the Court today declined to grant an emergency stay of actions authorized by a lower court. That's not a big deal decision.
I also understand there was no dissenting opinion written. That means it didn't really piss off any of the nine justices (and they do occupy different parts of the political spectrun).
This sets no precedent of any kind for any purpose on any issue.
It just means this wasn't the case they were interested in debating in writing.
The Supreme Court rarely gets involved in anything it thinks is a political question.
The fact that the Bush Administration started this process and the Obama Administration finished it on key says that what "the Executive" did is what it thought "the Legislature" gave it power to do. "Without objection" as they say in Congress.
I think you are putting way too much emphasis on a really minor matter, but I will read and respond because I appreciate the fact that you give a shit about what's happening.
broward -
A world of hurt!
Thanks for cheering me up broward! You always kick sleeping dogs or only the whimpering ones?
"and they do occupy different parts of the political spectrun"
yes, they vary from fascist to statist
"True enough. You're a troll."
One is always considered a troll if they say something against the group-think But its rubbish really. I've been reading this blog for a good 3 years and I rarely comment, there are other places I can go to discuss things. I commented on this post, because it was about the comments and the comments section use to be much more interesting in the past. That is my view, you are free to think differently.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 12:38 am
Capitalists used to understand that the value was not in the representation (money) but the real factories & people. In case you hadn't noticed, they're busily destroying the very dollars they worked so hard to accumulate. The equation has to balance, equilibrium will re-assert itself. Most capitalists don't realize that 50% of their sales are a result of the taxes they pay.
We have an entire major sector of the economy based on the exact inverse idea - that productive capital is worthless and financial capital is priceless. They called it: FIRE. Possibly because it consumes everything in its path and burns as long as it continues to be supplied with oxygen.
"One is always considered a troll if they say something against the group-think "
uh, no. going against groupthink here would be a reasonable defense of a position in something like SPY, TLT, DTO, or a personal holding in CRE, or even a defense of nyfed policy. that has value, if only in stimulating consideration of different perspectives.
you offer nothing. you're a troll.
Didn't their parents ever tell them not to play with FIRE.
//They called it: FIRE.//
The great myth of "decoupling", some people really actually believe it. Just see previous comment threads from today.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 12:51 am
Didn't their parents ever tell them not to play with FIRE.
//They called it: FIRE.//
Actually their "parents" encouraged them, gave them books on pyrotechnics, and supplied as much of the incendiary material as they wanted and brought some gasoline along.
Remember Tanta's admonition . . . .
carnap -
I commented on this post, because it was about the comments and the comments section use to be much more interesting in the past. That is my view, you are free to think differently.
I do agree the noise to thought ratio has increased.
And I do think that this is a very important thread that is attempting to define what is the goals of the comment section. But an IRC channel or separate forum has been tried in other areas and just does not work out in my opinion. To outline what I would like to think the heart and soul of this blog and the comments section might/could be.
I have been a lurker for years before I started posting, and even in the past I would often fly through the comments section because often I found it, lacking... Technical, wonkish. Covering something so major to everyone, but presented in ways that would make a non-economist fall asleep.
In all aspects I am a guest, and I fully intend on following the house rules and guidelines. If I don't like them I can leave.
In many ways I am an outsider, I'm just an average J6P who is trying to keep up with the massive changes going on in my world, country, state, and general reality. And I am not ashamed to say I'm shocked, dazed and confused. The comment section for me has come alive lately with a mix of people that is rarely found, with breath of views and topics that makes reading the comment sections worth while.
Maybe I'm not the only one out there, and I think at this point a little flexibility is called for, with at times strong guidance and enforcement from CR. It's his playground we are in.
Just my two cents, hopefully it makes a little sense.
flaminia -
Remember Tanta's admonition . . . .
It would be nice to have a search function, or maybe I would just prefer to have my "dazed" postings lost forever.
"some people really actually believe it."
i believe that fxp has been a tough play
YLSP,
You said: "Oh go ahead with that "this is your opinion" crap. Is there some law that you have to act like a hack on message boards if you disagree with someone?"
One of the problems with message boards is that you will get a whole lot more opinions than facts or research. People generally aren't going to do research to prove their opinion or disprove yours. The most you can hope for is that they will read your opinion which, hopefully, will be backed by facts and research.
You said "I'm asking to see the public statute that authorizes funds for the automakers. Doesn't exist! That's what I was hoping the Supreme Court would rule on.."
To do what you hoped the Court would have had to grant the emergency stay . . . which really was the only issue before it today. Justice Ginsburg probably did the right thing by granting a temporary stay referring the matter to the whole Court. When it wasn't that big a deal with any of them, they let it go. That means it wasn't her decision to ignore the absence of specific enabling legislation, it was the decision that all of them reached. Compare 'political decisions.'
After reviewing some definitions, you say: "Under no law of Congress does it establish that the TARP money is for buying up bankrupt companies, or even bailing out the automakers."
True enough, but in case you missed it (I know you didn't), the whole point of the TARP legislation was junked almost as soon as it was signed. Paulson didn't go around buying "troubled assets" from "financial institutions." He just started cutting checks to the banks and asking for shares to be issued at prices way above market values. This implicated not just who did benefit, but who might benefit, from the largesse of Congress . . . and it eventually found it's way to the auto companies.
You seem to understand this so far, since you then said: "I'm quite clear that this is about the law. Additionally; none of the courts in the BK case took up the question, "Can TARP funds cover the automakers". Obama's general solicitor made a weak case that the SCOTUS shouldn't review that question basically by saying: "Supreme Court is typically not the first reviewer of these questions...". It is my hope the SCOTUS asks these questions of the administration. I don't believe it is the intent of Congress to interpret TARP so broadly... however they left gaping open loopholes (and haven't bothered to close them) which means they implicitly agree to bailing out the automakers."
This is your key statement that underlies why the Court did not act in the way you hoped it would. The Supreme Court does not generally jump into the middle of factual disputes (such as what the legislation covers) or the intention of the Congress (given what both sides of the political spectrum were accepting as 'okay within the meaning') unless those issues have been thoroughly briefed and argued in the lower courts and decisions on the merits issued that can then be reviewed, whether for error in application or for failure to comply with Constitutional mandates. None of this occurred. There was no record on which they could cause all this to be done in connection with the granting of an emergency stay.
"I really do believe the question needs to be answered by the SCOTUS."
Okay, but you'll have to wait a few years.
"In fact, is it possible they rule that the loophole in the TARP bill which states: "financial institution is" "any other financial instrument that the Treasury Secretary after consulting with the Chariman of the Fed determines the purchase of which is necessary to promote financial market stability, but only upon transmittal of such determination, in writing, to the appropriate committees of Congress." Again, specifically it mentions "financial instruments". There has been no review that automobile companies are "financial instruments" and I hope judges were scratching their heads."
If it makes you feel any better, just think of "financial instruments" as including loans and preferred stock. The government didn't buy the companies, but rather just loaned them money. The reality, though, is that this is a loophole big enough to drive a truck through and that was in fact the intention of Congress . . . because that is exactly what Paulson requested.
Bottom line: this declination to grant an emergency stay means nothing in the long run. In the short run, this wasn't the ditch to die in. Live to fight another day. Thanks for caring.
"Maybe I'm just not sophisticated enough to understand how the 10 year bond rate, debt levels, decreased spending and increased savings do not apply to the main focus of this board."
My point is not that these things are not relevant to the economy, of course they are. Rather, that the comments lack goal directed reasoned debate. A good half of the comments are stupid chatter that is only amusing to the few people involved. A lot of the comments are fairly irrelevant and only of interest to traders, but at least these can in principle be understood by outsiders. There is just a general lack of reasoned debate, most of the debates are just hotheads beating their chest.
Anyhow, I'm not suggesting all the conversations are uninteresting or are some how unreasonable.. But the noise is so strong that its really hard to focus (or even find) the more interesting debates.
Regardless, I'm not trying to insult you or anybody for liking the comments. But they are more akin to a chat room than anything else. Seems like things could be better separated.
Era's End writes: "In my view, Capitalism can only function when the economy is properly regulated by honorable people in government and social programs to help move the wealth around the ladder."
This, in my opinion is what makes America the greatest country ever invented. Where else can you find a place like this? Not only is this an example of pure frontier gibbberish, it also adds to the explanation of how we got here.
Honorable people indeed. I'm sending you a lamp to assist in your search. O! yes, you'll need to pack a lunch.
Capitalism exists as a system to drive competition out. Its ultimate end is monopoly. There is no greater sport than this. There is no more dire peril either. When played on a small scale, it makes for an exciting existence.
The comments used to have much more thorough analysis of why the comments used to have much more thorough analysis.
"you offer nothing. you're a troll. "
Yes, that's nice. Now, you should have clicked the "ignore user" button the first time you said it though.
"ignore user" button -
Inconceivable. Page down works as well, just like walking away from a drunk at a bar, making certain the bouncer has your back and you can see the idiot in the mirror.
generally, i try not to feed trolls, but the late hour and public interest involved compel me, as does the possibility that you might revert to lurking for a few more years.
still, i'm impressed - you've managed to write "dood this board is lame now the noobs fail" in well over one hundred words. not easy.
" . . . just like walking away from and drunk at a bar, making certain the bouncer has your back and you can see the idiot in the mirror."
Sounds like you've spent some time in more than a couple bars.
sportsfan -
Sounds like you've spent some time in more than a couple bars.
Hey, its a life style, I just wish I knew how to protect my self as well financially to keep my self from being blind sided and mugged.
"I'm not trying to insult you or anybody for liking the comments. But they are more akin to a chat room than anything else. Seems like things could be better separated."
The universal default is chaos. Any attempt at construction will ultimately result in more chaos. Chaos is.
Better separated...here's your divider pack and scoop. Get to work now--hup, hup.
anyone have an opinion on back to school sales this year? I was at a tech investor conference this week in SF, and it seems like most of the tech companies that presented are talking about seeing stabilization or modest growth for 2Q and a better 2H. But what about Q3? My guess is that with a lot more people either unemployed or underemployed compared to last July/August, this year's back to school buying season should come in pretty weak, contrary to what a lot of WS analysts have modeled in. But it is just my guess.
Kahuna, I've been in more than a few bars and they are more or less the same. How to avoid financial muggings requires a different skill set. There are a lot of smiling faces out there.
Personally, never been to your islands other than a refueling in the late 1960s that took two hours. Have a feeling, though, that the bars are more or less the same. Think I just said that.
Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:21 am
sportsfan -
Sounds like you've spent some time in more than a couple bars.
Hey, its a life style, I just wish I knew how to protect my self as well financially to keep my self from being blind sided and mugged.
Stay out of the casino, trim exposed hedges and steer clear of the dark pools. And don't take wooden nickels. Unfortunately we all get Bernanke Bucks, which are like Disney Dollars in that they are only real money within the Magic Kingdom. Good night.
Besides SRS, is shorting KRE another way to play the CRE bust? Any thoughts on which would be better?
Gotta go watch Colbert from Baghdad. Goodnight, folks.
Kauia ....
thos NGO jobs I mentioned, I wish I had one too... (Cambodia pays more since it's considered hazardous duty pay...)
besides the usually required Masters degree it takes connections... I had friends for years trying to get jobs at the UN,
roughly the same thing....
daveinsv -
Short answer, I don't see it.
While sooner or later parts will need to be replaced, IT components will need to be ungraded, but that can be a slow process and there is a lot of excess inventory out there.
The large upgrade cycles tend to come after a product has reached end of life and support is not longer automatic unless a company pays big bucks for exclusive support. M$, Apple, none of them have any new massive upgrades coming in time for the back to school session. Networks, and most other IT parts can wait as long as updates are available and security problems are addressed.
Now when XP goes end of life, that will be something else, but I never bet on M$.
I do think that the Tech sector is the only increase in productivity and growing industry, I just don't see it leading any where good any time soon.
But once again, I tend to wrong all the time.
ResistanceIsFeudal - Bernanke Bucks,
Thus my dilemma, angst, confusion.
When all the markets are rigged casinos, I run to Bernanke Bucks, and I have no illusion on being able to move to commodities between the pumps and dumps and before inflation kicks in.
daveinsv (profile) wrote on Wed, 6/10/2009 - 11:28 pm
Besides SRS, is shorting KRE another way to play the CRE bust? Any thoughts on which would be better?
Dave this is just an opinion ... I don't know if it's the thinness of the market, or what, but it's a recipe for getting burned for me. I'm long GLD and SLV and have tried so very hard to use TBT but have never had the guts to hang in there. UCO for days. GLD/SLV for weeks to months.
re: CRE, I think fondly of the literally hundreds of times this fellow at the bank tried to convince me to buy some super-senior-preferred-snazziness CRE bundles with minty-fresh features. "You literally cannot go wrong!" The rate quoted was a whole 50 basis points over a CD then (2006, 2007). Last time I stopped at that bank a few weeks ago his office had been cleaned out. I had started reading CR and continued buying CDs instead.
Never did understand what he was doing in my bank. Like some sort of prion or something.
Duke of Con Dao - It takes connections...
Oh yes, I know that deal, unfortunately all I have are friends in low places.
Cambodia would be interesting, but I do know its dangerous in many ways and I don't know how well I would deal with it long term.
Hey, anything new on the King of Thailand, there is nothing in the news here in the States.
I hate to say it, I do not want to be any were in that country when he passes away. I visit there a lot and you can not under estimate how important he is to the average Thai, and I think that place will explode when he passes. (Which I truly hope will be many years from now, it's going to be ugly!)
NervousRex -
It's too late at night to be looking up Prion.
That was a shark feeding off of the stupid and weak.
Why am I thinking of shark tail soup right now.
There's no way to "play" public markets as a retail "investor". Stick to your local, private markets as a local investor and stay away from anything where you don't personally know the other investors and the market your acquisition is doing business in.
Merrill never wanted to bring "Wall Street to Main Street'. it just wanted to collect your local money to give it buying power in the public markets.
Well, as we say here in Louisiana, "Thank God for Arkansas."
Now...Go Break The Windows - June 9, 2009
gotta read the narrative
volker the viking -
Oh that is just wrong. LOL, but so wrong.
Forget financial literacy, they need to teach common sense in grade schools.
Social Engineering is such a threat, image if that was a Nuke plant!
You know this is CR's blog and he can do whatever he wants with it. But really, if you look at what he has accomplished, you would join me in the "Have Faith in CR" group.
He has attracted top talent,...for free! He was able to pick a superb wingman in Tanta. How many others do you think would have shared control? (Let alone recognize the talent.)
He's attracted very very intelligent and also some very very interesting people with diverse backgrounds and skill sets. And the really cool thing is that the truly intelligent aren't dicks about it.
Which means that everybody feels comfortable in chiming in. Yes, that leads to schoolyard behavior sometimes, but it also keeps it from being some wacky ivory tower thing.
And this is all within a relatively open forum! I'm amazed we haven't seen more nuts around here. CR has managed to keep it going with a light touch warning people now and then about offensive comments. I laugh when I read commenters worried about censorship! Really, after reading what manages to pass muster, how much more abrasive does something need to be?
I don't know about CR's other traits, but his EQ is off the charts.
Kauai....
haven't heard anything new on the King outside of the rumor from a good source I posted last week. from what I hear he has some major heart problems.
yes, I would not want to be there when he goes either, his son, the playboy is seen as a joke...
as for Cambodia being dangerous, not like it was say 10 years ago... but occasionally I hear stories of westerners being robbed at gunpoint, think
NYC around 1990.
as for me I know why I landed in 'Nam nearly a year ago but my current raison d'etre here is shaky...
as for this blog I tried to start reading Ted Hope's blog, he's a major indie film producer, to get me off the CR
smack but reading about studios versus the indies doesn't do the trick... (except that story on Ari Emanuel in the
Times made me slightly nauseous... esp. the part that Charlie Rose had all 3 brothers on his show - and the
one brother, the bio-ethicist, said his brothers had these goals to make life better on the planet....
Duke of Con Dao -
Thanks, I go to Thailand on vacation a lot, last year I went to a friends wedding up north, that was awesome and a trip at the same time.
I know people there both native and ex-pats, and they expect me to visit soon, I would just rather avoid what I suspect may happen, but I really hope will not.
Thanks, please let me know if you hear anything, we don't get any news here on that area unless it deals with sex, drugs, or other nasty stuff.
Elijah Cummings, speaking about Lewis-Bernanke-Paulson this morning......"Honesty, Integrity are imperitive." Funny, from a politician.
Carnap (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/11/2009 - 1:34 am
My comments are related to the topic. And the point is simple, CR is trying to paddle upstream. He allowed the comments sections to degrade into a chat room, now he has to deal with the outcome.
/b/ was never good.
There will always someone ready to puff up with outrage, because being "shocked, simply shocked" has less to do with actually being shocked and more to do with the results your mock indignation brings when it's deployed as a weapon to elicit a response from the Big Mother.
Adding an "abuse button" is going to do little.
It'll give you a mechanism to tattle on people you dislike -- a valuable mechanism other than quality of output to promote yourself in the community by getting rid of competitors. That seems like it's about your speed, since you don't have any quality of output to speak for you. As always, meta-competition inside the formal structure brings greater results than quality of work product.
Well, just for the record....
C
associated securitization conduits to the woodshed, and making it inevitable that Geithner adjusts the requirements for CMBS TALF part v
good articles ...finance & economics
Don't short this market yet. The SPX may keep rallying for another 3 months or 3 years? who knows. pimple faced Geithner & bernanke run the show. Thay are sleezy, yes, but the stock market loves free money. wait till the distribution sets in. then short. We could see the SPX at 1200 -1300 b4 we get a nice bear market again.