More job losses in the UK despite taxpayer bailout...
"Lloyds Banking Group provoked a furious reaction from unions and MPs tonight over its plans to shut all 164 Cheltenham & Gloucester branches and cut a further 1,660 jobs.
The decision, which came on the day the taxpayer's stake in the bailed out bank rose temporarily to 45.74%, takes the total job cull at the UK's largest high street bank to more than 4,000 since it was created in January by Lloyds TSB's rescue of HBOS. Further job cuts, as many as 25,000, are expected from the combined 140,000 workforce during the three-year integration."
yesterday's Fed paper was nothing more than an exercise in ass-covering....so that when the shit really starts hitting the fan later this year they can say...well we saw that coming.
There is no such thing as a jobless recovery when 70% of GDP is us "serfs" buying crap.
The NBER's declaration of the "end" of the recession is meaningless. The longer term trends of a stagnating eCONomy will remain in place for the vast majority.
Monetizing trillions in bad debts is great for a corrupt and insolvent financial system. Unfortunately, it's a hugely extractive burden for the goods producing economy.
All for the greater glory of finance. Wall street gets bonuses, the majority get stuck paying for the all the non-economic debt.
The Fed is saving wall street so you can impoverish yourself with more debt. What a system.
'As the recession ends, we should see hours worked increase (or at least stop falling), and the number of part time for economic reasons workers decline.'
I can't see that happening, at the low end of the wage scale. People were working 2 or even 3 low-wage jobs to make ends meet before this recession, they'll probably have to do the same after it ends (if it ends).
Outsider (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 11:13 am
"How does that work?"
Otis, JD said it would require $3/hr. worldwide wages and something about undesirable outcomes. so scratch that idea. Unless you can figure it out.""""
A debt jubilee would mean making all current debt worthless. As the price of everything rises, the value of existing debts falls. In hyperinflation, the relative value of existing debt principal balances falls rapidly.
would a debt jubilee also mean that all the money I have "loaned" my banks in accounts and CDs also goes away? (because the banks debts are also forgiven)
Anecdote: I drove by the Chrysler dealer (Garden Grove, CA) losing their license today and didn't see any special signs. There seemed to be slightly more traffic than usual but nothing remarkable (no long lines or anything). I was a bit surprised to see them on national news (NBC or CBS) this weekend....
What I am seeing at street level is that continued high unemployment has a multiplier effect by rippling into lower PCE.
People have not saved enough, can't tap home equity any more, and feel vulnerable -- even if they are employed.
So, until they feel more job security, they are cutting back big on discretionary spending. One way to see it is in air travel. Here's a quote from a NY Times article today, referenced by CR yesterday.
"The [airline] group also said it expected revenue across the industry to fall 15 percent, to $448 billion this year — a much steeper decline than after the 9/11 terror attacks in the United States.
'There is no modern precedent for today’s economic meltdown. The ground has shifted,” Giovanni Bisignani, the association’s director general, said Monday in a speech at the association’s annual meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. “Our industry has been shaken. Our future depends on a drastic reshaping by partners, governments and industry.'"
That doesn't sound like a temporary or cyclical downturn to me.
In the "Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions" graph frequently shown you can see job recovery stretch out longer and longer for the past three recessions. IF we are reaching the turning point in this recession I bet this one will far out reach the 2001 line.
Jon, that is why some people argued the 2001 recession lasted until mid-2003. How can hours worked still be declining and the economy recovering? It is because other measures increased ... so that is what jobless recovery means. Those without a job will think the recession is going on and on ...
Since this is a consumer-led recession, doesn't it necessitate an employment driven recovery?
typically, the "solution" for consumer-led recessions has been more debt. don't think it's possible this time around. solution has got to be some form of redistribution whether it be explicit (e.g. tax, default) or stealth (e.g. devaluation)
In my area, we have 15% "official" unemployment, but I suspect the underground economy is doing pretty well. Lots of people in the grocery store paying cash, with a large wad of small bills. Of course, there are the meth labs and pot farmers, too.
As a GM Cardholder who has leased three GM vehicles by putting down my card points as down payment, I got a letter today from Troy Clarke, Group VP of GM.
Troy said that "GM is using an expedited, court-supervised process to accelerate the reinvention of our company."
And he also said: "Rest assured, we will honor the warranty commitment given to you at the time of your purchase." I though it was the govt. doing that. But what's the diff?
Troy offered me up to $2,750 in "GM Owner Appreciation Cash" on a 2009 vehicle, in addition to my card points.
Actually, the $2,750 only applies to one vehicle, a 2009 Pontiac G6. 252 horsepower, 33 mpg.
Not bad. With my points and dealing, I could probably get $5-6k off a car with an MSRP of only $25k or so.
I generally agree with you, but there a are a lot of reasons not to fly right now.
One big one is that air travel has become torture for people who cannot afford to fly first class or private.
Another is that we may have reached a turning point on the business value of many business trips. There are some things that you need to do in person, but with remaining staff picking up the work of their missing colleagues, the sheer time expenditure and other costs of business travel have to be more closely examined.
In one business that I am involved in, we used to fly people to Europe to conduct business. Now we hire Europeans to do as much as possible and seldom fly people across the pond. Some of this is due to the cost of travel, and some of it is due to the wastage of blowing three days of someone's time to accomplish four hours of customer handholding or whatever.
We have switched to online meetings with conference calls. For some reason people think that the format allows the expansion of a meeting from tedious to mind numbing
rich,
I agree that the airline industry is likely to struggle for quite a while. Of course, its been volatile since the day of deregulation. The biggest change I think necessary is for airlines to be equity financed. Debt financing isn't appropriate for a business with highly variable cash flows.
Even with the discount you are still at book value.....and that's if anyone wants a product that is being phased out. It's a deal alright..but not for you.
I used to work for a major corp. and did a lot of travel.... When I looked at what I actually did, and the cost of all the travel plus my salary, I had to think that no one was doing any cost/benefits analysis of this - It had to be a big loser... Once I lost a contract because a manager wanted me to embed an amount for travel in the project budget, so he could charge personal travel to it... I said the project didnt need any travel expenses, everything could be done over the phone and network... So he hired someone else who would waste company money for him... He later got fired anyway, I dont know the details, he was probably embezzling or something...
My husband's phone meetings involve a lot of clandestine productivity. He can debug with one part of his brain and still make appropriate meeting-type noises. The new multi-tasking.
My belief is that many firms are keeping employees - while cutting their pay and hours - in anticipation of the second half recovery. When it proves to be a mirage the layoffs will re-accelerate. Peak layoffs might have passed but I would be surprised if we didn't see at least a few more 500+K months dead ahead.
Of course, it will be fun to watch the bulltards spin this after may's -345K NFP.
online meetings with conference calls - Nova at least you can play video games or blog while you are in the meeting... I used to love the conference room meetings with the Powerpoint presentations.... I loved to mess with the presentation using the remote control app on my pda... hehe.... change channels on the tv etc...
Since the working-age population increases on the order of 1%/year, you need an increase of that much just to break even on a per capita basis. That extends each of the last two "recoveries" another year.
Also, concur with principle that a consumer based economy requires that consumers have income; and for most of us that means employment.
Finally, the recovery from 2001 that was somewhat jobless had to be fed from somewhere, and credit is the obvious choice. Haven't run the numbers but we all know the home-ATM was a strong source a few years later.
That's a good indicator -- sensitive and specific -- for the recovery; thanks, CR.
rich, be a good American and boycott Government Motors. They have done nothing to merit your patronage.
I need a 4WD vehicle to reliably reach 'The Doomstead' during rain and snow, and am taking a hard look at another Subaru (Outback, trading in the WRX STi; I should be able to get a nice deal this summer, as the Outback gets larger and softer this fall).
What are the units on the aggregate weekly hours chart? And what is the reliablity of that graph for recent months? Does that include illegals, independent contractors, sex workers, etc...? Seems like a very fuzzy number to me.
"Now, let's take another look at the S&P Composite, this time adjusted for inflation since 1982 using Williams' Shadow Government Statistics. The change is astonishing. The adjustments to post-1982 data alter the slope of the regression that impacts the variance from the trend across the entire time frame, dramatically so in the last two decades. With this adjustment, the S&P 500 has been below trend since 2002. The current bear market has dropped the monthly average index price 50% below the trend, which puts us in the territory of those secular market troughs. "
The problem with this bullish analysis is it assumes we are still on the same long term growth trend line.
You cannot grow Buffet's Pie forever. Eventually the pie is larger than the kitchen.
Eternal compound growth is impossible on a finite planet. We are on a new trend line of decreasing consumption and diminishing growth.
the new line goes a different way, representing a declining civilization.
"Many people find that unemployment benefits aren’t even enough to pay the bills -- laid-off workers receive on average $295.05 a week, according to the Department of Labor -- but it definitely helps them get by.
...[A]s of April, almost half of all laid off workers collecting state unemployment insurance exhausted their benefits, the highest rate since records were first kept in 1948, according to National Employment Law Project (NELP)."
Finally, the recovery from 2001 that was somewhat jobless had to be fed from somewhere, and credit is the obvious choice. Haven't run the numbers but we all know the home-ATM was a strong source a few years later.
Citizen Scotto (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 11:51 am
"would a debt jubilee also mean that all the money I have "loaned" my banks in accounts and CDs also goes away? (because the banks debts are also forgiven)"
In the US it would probably entail a mass simultaneous default on 80-90% of all debt.
Even with the discount you are still at book value.....and that's if anyone wants a product that is being phased out. It's a deal alright..but not for you.
MS,
Thanks. For my next car, I would like the smallest, greenest, cheapest car they make.
It seems a little presumptuous to ask, but do you think that graph might be turned into one where you track each recession separately as different colored lines? The turning points might stand out a lot better.
The last time I checked the No. VA shelters were full - with the working poor. My wife says she saw a man come out of the "tree people" part of the woods with a briefcase. In cars, friends living rooms...my sisters basement holds a part of my unemployed family.
we're getting the new bubble in comms. it started in March. Add in the bloated "rally" on next to no volume and we get a repeat of 2007/8...that worked out so well don't you think?
"Two people were missing and 21 injured, four critically, after an explosion at a Slim Jim meat products plant in North Carolina, officials said Tuesday."
"I was picking up a piece of meat off the line and I felt it, the percussion in my chest," Woods said. "One of the guys I was working with got blown back, he flew backwards."
That's why I don't eat Slim Jims. The gas is horrible.
The ranks of the un-unemployed grows at a brisk pace.
Where are they living?
In my area, mostly in trailers (RVs) parked on someone else's land, or by renting out a room in someone else's house. Also crashing on the couch or in the basement.
How are they eating?
See underground economy, above. Drug deals, barter, under the table cash jobs. Food bank. A few B-girls.
Slightly OT. I'm sure there will be some more news on moritriams expiring and inventories but I will probably miss it. I can't read as much as I used to. With Sac Landing practically dead, I'm hoping some folks here can still use the info.
Below is a comparision of trustee listings from different dates. The older dates were just searches I either saved for other people or was interested myself. In other words, almost completely random with my curiousity being the only constant.
date zip listings change
2/17/2009 95691 35
6/8/2009 95691 91 260%
7/22/2008 95817 34
6/8/2009 95817 24 71%
4/9/2008 Woodland 54
6/8/2009 Woodland 122 349%
4/11/2008 ED County 173
6/8/2009 ED County 386 223%
These are all around the Sacramento area.
95691 is full of new development that was very expensive of the location.
95817 is a depressed area that experienced some of the worst of the speculators and flippers. It still has a problem with flippers but perhaps another time...
Woodland is a central valley ag town about 15 min from Sacramento that experienced pricing pressure from Davis and Sac.
El Dorado County is a high priced exurban county which suffered lots of speculative building and monetary inflows from the Bay Area.
We had a sharp spike in trustee sales last year which is why I'm sort of grateful that I saved those searches. Locally we hear that our MSA will bottom out and come out of the recession faster because we were on the forefront of the downturn. Judging by those trustee listings and the crisis in CA, I don't think Sacramento is going to be that lucky.
I personally dont' think the commodities rally can sustain & become a big bubble, with so much deflating debt and still-shrinking demand for everything. The comm prices don't reflect demand (just expectations, or "hope"),.,. but they'll eventually revert to it... not?
In the 'Day Late' file today...been there for awhile already...
WHO chief: flu pandemic appears to be happening
By FRANK JORDANS – 1 hour ago
GENEVA (AP) — The head of the World Health Organization says the swine flu outbreak appears to have reached pandemic proportions.
WHO Director-General Margaret Chan says "on the surface of it" she believes a pandemic has been reached.
Chan says she will hold a conference call with governments Wednesday in order to verify some of the reports she has received before making a formal announcement.
I need a 4WD vehicle to reliably reach 'The Doomstead' during rain and snow, and am taking a hard look at another Subaru
Take a look at that article someone wrote about how people with safe houses up in the hills will just get picked off by the mountain-dwelling locals, unless they make nice with their new community.
CR on a post last week you concluded "It seems likely that the unemployment rate will continue to rise for the next 2 years or so since any recovery will probably be very sluggish".
Weak Hiring with Jobless Recovery most likely into 2011.
Hmmm 2 more years should breakdown consumer spending ( 70% of GDP ) as a key driver of the debt laden ‘bubble’ US economy
Financial engineering ponzi schemes from Wall St and Obamanomics will not save the day !
"western governments own roughly $450 billion in banks. If markets or the economy slump again, investors’ appetite for new shares will evaporate. Of the ten banks, eight had been pressed by the government to take funds in October, amid efforts to shore up the banking system. Although some individual institutions may try to claim that they took the money unwillingly, government intervention was necessary to prevent the entire system from collapsing as banks were found to own hundreds of billions of dollars of hard-to-value assets.
Even today all banks remain plugged into government life support systems. Central banks provide generous collateral rules for borrowing, in an effort to provide banks with liquidity. Some banks have managed to issue debt without government guarantees, but the system needs to refinance some $25.6 trillion of wholesale funding by 2011: without an implicit state back stop this would be impossible. And the value of banks’ assets is being sheltered by central banks’ asset purchasing programmes and in some cases flattered by more generous accounting rules. The truth is that the West has a thinly capitalised banking system that is being allowed to earn its way back to health. Save for defence and space exploration it is hard to think of a privately-run industry more dependent on the state."
I've seen reports of people who aren't being allowed to withdraw cash from investment funds to use for living expenses, with the excuse being that the managers don't want to sell at "fire-sale" prices. "Thinly capitalized" is right...most of the assets held by the banking system are like the SD hotel that's worth a third of its last sale price. $25.6 trillion in re-funding needs!!!
"My BIL has supplemented their food for a couple years by hunting in bow, blackpowder, and rifle seasons. "
I should go down to the municipal wharf around 11 pm and look around. Always some people down there at night fishing for food -- used to be all poor Latino. Be curious to see who's down there these days. Don't need a license at the muni wharf.
You couldn't live on road kill here, what with the coyotes, cougars, bears, badgers, etc. It's actually dangerous to go hunting back up in the hills. Not to mention the pot farmers. One of them tried to pick off my crew when we were building the house.
"Kevin O’Dell, of the law enforcement section of the Ohio Department of Natural Resources’ division of wildlife, disagrees, however, and said removing roadkill is illegal unless it’s during the hunting season of the particular animal in question. Otherwise the animal technically belongs to the state of Ohio.
“Just because an animal is lying on the road, it doesn’t give anyone permission to use it,” he said.
Penalties for violators can be as severe as a $1,000 fine and six months in jail." The Real Roadkill Cafe
I pass several waterways to and from work each day. The fishing population has increased slowly over the last 2 years but the ratio of tents to fishers has probably doubled.
Meanwhile, we have a small rally and the VIX was under 28 for a while today... Prior to Oct 2007 a reading of 28 would have been considered high, but after it hit 90 now 28 looks pretty modest... So perhaps we are reaching a new reality, a new point of stability, where this is no growth but no real big downside either.... And for those who are writing software for UAV's or other military apps, the future looks pretty good.... We are also going to need skilled and semiskilled labor to build machinery until the truly smart robot arrives... For the rest of the population who should be working, you will have to look for janitorial and food service work, or figure out how to live on the dole somehow... It pays to educate yourself and learn every skill you can - you might be able to make some money with them but you will definitely improve your own way of life when you can do most things for yourself...
It wasn't the credit that ended the "NBER" recession in 2001, it was the expansion of credit starting in mid-03 that brought the economy back to trend growth and substainable employment.
Of course it also caused the credit markets to act poorly in the 2004-06 years that caused the crisis of today.
Seriously? We do that here, and the deer just look at us with that annoyed "oh, please" expression, and bound off into the woods. Even the possums are unimpressed.
nova, the Seligman/Prescott National Forest area is driving distance from San Diego (450 miles); far enough away from Mexico and large cities; has deer and elk for food; has well water; can farm and ranch with well water; is relatively cool in summer (6,000 foot elevation) and not too cold in winter.
My taste is much more for beef, pork, lamb, and chicken than for wild game.... If push comes to shove I'm heading out to Black Star's place and make some kind of barter deal with him.... I'm sure I have some stuff that he can use, including a little muscle power... Not to mention taking a shift on guard duty every night... And I'll bring my own ammo!
S-, I plan to raise chickens for meat and eggs and have goats or a small cow for milk. But, if I botch it -- as a city slicker, I certainly will, for a while -- I need backup beyond my wheat, beans, and powdered milk and eggs.
The drawback on our Doomstead is no streams, rivers, or lakes for fishing; have to drive 60 miles north to the Grand Canyon/Colorado River for that.
People talk about a "jobless recovery" like it happens all the time. When was the last one?
All of them since before 1990-
Edited: Oops! I meant after 1990....
It's really unfortunate that with all this federal spending, no one is looking ahead a generation and doing anything to create better conditions for business development. For $100 billion, we could probably have fiber optic cable to every home... or rollout Wimax nationwide.... I think Japan is going to own the robot market eventually... Once I tried to make the point to some Intel execs that they should be in the robot biz but they have chips on the brain... I see Intel in the same place as the railroads were in the 1880's - they thought they were in the railroad biz instead of being in the transportation biz... Intel thinks it is in the chip biz when it should be thinking beyond that... Maybe the military will eventually produce the smart robot - they already have some things that are pretty amazing...
Your fetish with "business development" is outright scary. Sometimes, businesses can only develope so far before stagnation.Trying to force a monotheistic business perspective on a country will lead it down the path of Rollarball and eventually end of that country.
Think that was a factor behind the 2000's economic era that nobody gave a nod for. By 2000 the party was over. It looked like before 2003, the economy was going to have series of recessions as the excess slowly worked off, a true lost decade.
Creditcriminal,it is a very good idea to walk away when you see irrigation in the woods.Try to look casual when you leave and watch out for tripwires,some folks get real paranoid about their crops.
Shadow, don't spend all of your money counting on continuing UAV income.
We have a rude awakening before us, and will get it this summer and fall, I think, with our first failed Treasury auction or riots in California.
Imperial America -- hundreds of bases overseas and wars fought to keep oil coming -- will become Fortress America -- greatly scaled down military, no more expensive toys and consumables, all based stateside.
"It's really unfortunate that with all this federal spending, no one is looking ahead a generation and doing anything to create better conditions for business development."
Heck, an effective national health program would help with that. Get health and disability costs off the backs of corporations (enforce work safety regs mercilessly, though), maintain moderate corporate taxes (closing the Cayman-Island type loopholes), get the revenue you need by soaking the rich until the top 1/2 of 1 percent "only" controls 20 percent of the wealth.
Sorry, but I am going to rant. The idea of a mountain or whatever redoubt is ... less than a good idea. If you didn't grow up there - you are not really there. You can marry in. Church in. But not move in.
It is really a different world where family,d church and who you used to be married to are everything. In a place like that - connections are worth more than gold.
"Imperial America -- hundreds of bases overseas and wars fought to keep oil coming -- will become Fortress America -- greatly scaled down military, no more expensive toys and consumables, all based stateside."
Remember when the supermarket carried three kinds of mustard? I count 25 or 30 now, including some that will run you six or seven bucks for a small jar.
I also think cheap beer is a growth industry, too.
Home ATM closed, credit cards tapped out, consumer spending 70% of economy with little manufacturing anyone wants. There won't be a jobless recovery this time.
Comrade-Dope jg (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 12:52 pm
nova, the Seligman/Prescott National Forest area is driving distance from San Diego (450 miles); far enough away from Mexico and large cities; has deer and elk for food; has well water; can farm and ranch with well water; is relatively cool in summer (6,000 foot elevation) and not too cold in winter.
I know a couple who are building a green compund where folks will get to learn design and construction techniques with the least possibly green idea: vintage car rentals for tourists who want to cruise Route 66 in a 65 Stang or a 57 Bel-Air.
Pluses: everything listed above, plus ample wind and sunshine and easily defendable/alertable.
Minuses: the natives are a squirrelly bunch, the transplants not much better, meth is as common as sodapop.
JD, I too wondered what the scale was for the aggregate hours chart. Now that I've finally read all of the posts, and see this question has not been answered, I will ask as well.
Nemo, that video was one long rant, but I think the fellow made two valid points:
(1) Now that unemployment benefits are running out, does anybody know if the system can tell how many people are really unemployed? I remember in one of the previous recessions there was talk of job-seekers just giving up and no longer seeking work. I could believe this if we knew how many job seekers there are and how many of them are looking for work. This is information readily available through unemployment claims, but as these expire I would think we are losing valuable information. Please tell me the BLS has some notion of how many Americans are unemployed and unable to collect UI (due to expiration).
(2) The "vigilante" seemed to indicate he was done paying bills. I doubt economists are factoring in the moral factor in the economy. When people who consider themselves to be good, honest citizens see the rich getting richer and bums receiving assistance there is a strong incentive to give up on one's traditional values of right and wrong. I believe this could lead to widespread defaulting by people who might otherwise pay their bills (if they didn't feel stupid being the only ones to pay what they owe).
The Jobless Recovery is the new Soft Landing. When all the evidence is negative, you make up an absurd, meaningless, and arbitrary bottom boundary, and you give it a catchy name. Then as people see all the evidence that continues to point toward disaster, they can keep repeating the Doublespeak Mantra and feel reassured.
A soft landing was a complete stupidity because there is no surface on which prices can land. If you turn off the price engine, you don't fall to the ground (zero growth in prices) you fall into the singularity (zero value).
The Jobless Recovery is the same stupidity. Sure, nobody will have jobs, which you can obviously see from the statistics, but the economy will, for absolutely no reason, recover. And that "immaculate recovery" will then of course, being a recovery after all, make everything better.
First, a disclaimer. I'm economically blind (I am not up on this economic data or how its calculated), so I could be steering you in the wrong direction. I welcome any correction that leads to the correct answer.
That said, JD, I went to the BLS site. And found something that looks like the data CR posted. I believe you can generate the data here:
When I generated the data, I saw the magic text "2002=100" which indicates all data is based on the index at 100 in 2002 (why I don't know). Since the index seems to always grow (more or less), I would guess its based upon all hours worked by all full and part time employees. To answer your question, the self-employed are not included in the survey.
Video of the day
Also thread music.
Walmart jobs pay more than UAW jobs right?
We had a jobless recovery after 2003 as well. Not as jobless as this one, though. Some recoveries are more jobless than others.
Didn't stop the Dow from going to all-time highs.
GE should sell CNBC to Rupert Murdock so that it's journey to the DarkSide would be complete.
This graphic quite plainly illustrates that we've already had a "Lost Decade". The question now is "Will we have another Lost Decade?"
thanks nemo - i enjoyed that, speaking professionally though, some eye protection will improve his career longevity
'eyesight hoarding'
So if the economy is still contracting - then why would anyone be hiring?
More job losses in the UK despite taxpayer bailout...
"Lloyds Banking Group provoked a furious reaction from unions and MPs tonight over its plans to shut all 164 Cheltenham & Gloucester branches and cut a further 1,660 jobs.
The decision, which came on the day the taxpayer's stake in the bailed out bank rose temporarily to 45.74%, takes the total job cull at the UK's largest high street bank to more than 4,000 since it was created in January by Lloyds TSB's rescue of HBOS. Further job cuts, as many as 25,000, are expected from the combined 140,000 workforce during the three-year integration."
from the Guardian, today.
yesterday's Fed paper was nothing more than an exercise in ass-covering....so that when the shit really starts hitting the fan later this year they can say...well we saw that coming.
There is no such thing as a jobless recovery when 70% of GDP is us "serfs" buying crap.
But I gather it sounds nice to see it in print.
Ciao
MS
People talk about a "jobless recovery" like it happens all the time. When was the last one?
Ken, there is something weird going on with the comment system. The type place marker is jumping all around as I type.
The NBER's declaration of the "end" of the recession is meaningless. The longer term trends of a stagnating eCONomy will remain in place for the vast majority.
Monetizing trillions in bad debts is great for a corrupt and insolvent financial system. Unfortunately, it's a hugely extractive burden for the goods producing economy.
All for the greater glory of finance. Wall street gets bonuses, the majority get stuck paying for the all the non-economic debt.
The Fed is saving wall street so you can impoverish yourself with more debt. What a system.
'As the recession ends, we should see hours worked increase (or at least stop falling), and the number of part time for economic reasons workers decline.'
I can't see that happening, at the low end of the wage scale. People were working 2 or even 3 low-wage jobs to make ends meet before this recession, they'll probably have to do the same after it ends (if it ends).
That's OK it's all about the 600K jobs we are S-A-V-I-N-G
Angry Saver, you're the second one mentioning this. Are you using IE 8?
Outsider (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 11:13 am
"How does that work?"
Otis, JD said it would require $3/hr. worldwide wages and something about undesirable outcomes. so scratch that idea. Unless you can figure it out.""""
A debt jubilee would mean making all current debt worthless. As the price of everything rises, the value of existing debts falls. In hyperinflation, the relative value of existing debt principal balances falls rapidly.
Hyperinflation is a debt jubilee by another name.
part of the problem are the miley cyruses, beyonces, j-los who aren't content with just one job.
would a debt jubilee also mean that all the money I have "loaned" my banks in accounts and CDs also goes away? (because the banks debts are also forgiven)
Anecdote: I drove by the Chrysler dealer (Garden Grove, CA) losing their license today and didn't see any special signs. There seemed to be slightly more traffic than usual but nothing remarkable (no long lines or anything). I was a bit surprised to see them on national news (NBC or CBS) this weekend....
Angry Saver, you're the second one mentioning this. Are you using IE 8?
I'm not sure. How can I find that out?
I'm not sure. How can I find that out?
Help Menu - About Internet Explorer
What I am seeing at street level is that continued high unemployment has a multiplier effect by rippling into lower PCE.
People have not saved enough, can't tap home equity any more, and feel vulnerable -- even if they are employed.
So, until they feel more job security, they are cutting back big on discretionary spending. One way to see it is in air travel. Here's a quote from a NY Times article today, referenced by CR yesterday.
"The [airline] group also said it expected revenue across the industry to fall 15 percent, to $448 billion this year — a much steeper decline than after the 9/11 terror attacks in the United States.
'There is no modern precedent for today’s economic meltdown. The ground has shifted,” Giovanni Bisignani, the association’s director general, said Monday in a speech at the association’s annual meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. “Our industry has been shaken. Our future depends on a drastic reshaping by partners, governments and industry.'"
That doesn't sound like a temporary or cyclical downturn to me.
In the "Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions" graph frequently shown you can see job recovery stretch out longer and longer for the past three recessions. IF we are reaching the turning point in this recession I bet this one will far out reach the 2001 line.
Since this is a consumer-led recession, doesn't it necessitate an employment driven recovery?
The type place marker is jumping all around as I type.
Jumps around if you happen to be typing as comments auto refresh
Call me crazy but isn't "jobless recovery" an oxymoron?
That I could see. I should disable autorefresh while typing is taking place.
Someone last night said they saw jumping around even after disabling autorefresh though. They were using IE 8.
Jon, that is why some people argued the 2001 recession lasted until mid-2003. How can hours worked still be declining and the economy recovering? It is because other measures increased ... so that is what jobless recovery means. Those without a job will think the recession is going on and on ...
best wishes
Use Firefox....IE is a cesspool of open "problems" waiting to occur.
Ciao
MS
CR-
Add in that the metrics for counting jobs got changed quite a bit as well. B/D model really got emphasized during that period.
Ciao
MS
Since this is a consumer-led recession, doesn't it necessitate an employment driven recovery?
typically, the "solution" for consumer-led recessions has been more debt. don't think it's possible this time around. solution has got to be some form of redistribution whether it be explicit (e.g. tax, default) or stealth (e.g. devaluation)
In my area, we have 15% "official" unemployment, but I suspect the underground economy is doing pretty well. Lots of people in the grocery store paying cash, with a large wad of small bills. Of course, there are the meth labs and pot farmers, too.
As a GM Cardholder who has leased three GM vehicles by putting down my card points as down payment, I got a letter today from Troy Clarke, Group VP of GM.
Troy said that "GM is using an expedited, court-supervised process to accelerate the reinvention of our company."
And he also said: "Rest assured, we will honor the warranty commitment given to you at the time of your purchase." I though it was the govt. doing that. But what's the diff?
Troy offered me up to $2,750 in "GM Owner Appreciation Cash" on a 2009 vehicle, in addition to my card points.
Actually, the $2,750 only applies to one vehicle, a 2009 Pontiac G6. 252 horsepower, 33 mpg.
Not bad. With my points and dealing, I could probably get $5-6k off a car with an MSRP of only $25k or so.
Deal or no deal?
Whoopsy - Oil closes over $70...
rich;
"One way to see it is in air travel."
I generally agree with you, but there a are a lot of reasons not to fly right now.
One big one is that air travel has become torture for people who cannot afford to fly first class or private.
Another is that we may have reached a turning point on the business value of many business trips. There are some things that you need to do in person, but with remaining staff picking up the work of their missing colleagues, the sheer time expenditure and other costs of business travel have to be more closely examined.
In one business that I am involved in, we used to fly people to Europe to conduct business. Now we hire Europeans to do as much as possible and seldom fly people across the pond. Some of this is due to the cost of travel, and some of it is due to the wastage of blowing three days of someone's time to accomplish four hours of customer handholding or whatever.
Call me crazy but isn't "jobless recovery" an oxymoron?
It does seem to not make sense. But maybe visualize a banker getting his pre-2008 bonus while working class workers battle it out for Walmart jobs.
We have switched to online meetings with conference calls. For some reason people think that the format allows the expansion of a meeting from tedious to mind numbing
Jeezum, Nemo, what a rant!
rich,
I agree that the airline industry is likely to struggle for quite a while. Of course, its been volatile since the day of deregulation. The biggest change I think necessary is for airlines to be equity financed. Debt financing isn't appropriate for a business with highly variable cash flows.
Whoopsy - Oil closes over $70...
Looks Bernanke's Anti-Stimulus Package is kicking in.
rich-
Even with the discount you are still at book value.....and that's if anyone wants a product that is being phased out. It's a deal alright..but not for you.
Ciao
MS
"Whoopsy - Oil closes over $70... "
That is because the economy has recovered. Haven't you heard?
I used to work for a major corp. and did a lot of travel.... When I looked at what I actually did, and the cost of all the travel plus my salary, I had to think that no one was doing any cost/benefits analysis of this - It had to be a big loser... Once I lost a contract because a manager wanted me to embed an amount for travel in the project budget, so he could charge personal travel to it... I said the project didnt need any travel expenses, everything could be done over the phone and network... So he hired someone else who would waste company money for him... He later got fired anyway, I dont know the details, he was probably embezzling or something...
My husband's phone meetings involve a lot of clandestine productivity. He can debug with one part of his brain and still make appropriate meeting-type noises. The new multi-tasking.
That 'labor hoarding' arguement cuts both ways.
My belief is that many firms are keeping employees - while cutting their pay and hours - in anticipation of the second half recovery. When it proves to be a mirage the layoffs will re-accelerate. Peak layoffs might have passed but I would be surprised if we didn't see at least a few more 500+K months dead ahead.
Of course, it will be fun to watch the bulltards spin this after may's -345K NFP.
Even with the discount you are still at book value
Maybe look for trailing discounts of foreign car makers (or Ford if you're so inclined).
online meetings with conference calls - Nova at least you can play video games or blog while you are in the meeting... I used to love the conference room meetings with the Powerpoint presentations.... I loved to mess with the presentation using the remote control app on my pda... hehe.... change channels on the tv etc...
Since the working-age population increases on the order of 1%/year, you need an increase of that much just to break even on a per capita basis. That extends each of the last two "recoveries" another year.
Also, concur with principle that a consumer based economy requires that consumers have income; and for most of us that means employment.
Finally, the recovery from 2001 that was somewhat jobless had to be fed from somewhere, and credit is the obvious choice. Haven't run the numbers but we all know the home-ATM was a strong source a few years later.
That's a good indicator -- sensitive and specific -- for the recovery; thanks, CR.
rich, be a good American and boycott Government Motors. They have done nothing to merit your patronage.
I need a 4WD vehicle to reliably reach 'The Doomstead' during rain and snow, and am taking a hard look at another Subaru (Outback, trading in the WRX STi; I should be able to get a nice deal this summer, as the Outback gets larger and softer this fall).
ShadowInventory ,
Yep. Except now I don't even bother. I keep forgeting or have an appointment or something....
What are the units on the aggregate weekly hours chart? And what is the reliablity of that graph for recent months? Does that include illegals, independent contractors, sex workers, etc...? Seems like a very fuzzy number to me.
from earlier,
dshort.com: Regression to Trend Update
"Now, let's take another look at the S&P Composite, this time adjusted for inflation since 1982 using Williams' Shadow Government Statistics. The change is astonishing. The adjustments to post-1982 data alter the slope of the regression that impacts the variance from the trend across the entire time frame, dramatically so in the last two decades. With this adjustment, the S&P 500 has been below trend since 2002. The current bear market has dropped the monthly average index price 50% below the trend, which puts us in the territory of those secular market troughs. "
The problem with this bullish analysis is it assumes we are still on the same long term growth trend line.
You cannot grow Buffet's Pie forever. Eventually the pie is larger than the kitchen.
Eternal compound growth is impossible on a finite planet. We are on a new trend line of decreasing consumption and diminishing growth.
the new line goes a different way, representing a declining civilization.
"Many people find that unemployment benefits aren’t even enough to pay the bills -- laid-off workers receive on average $295.05 a week, according to the Department of Labor -- but it definitely helps them get by.
...[A]s of April, almost half of all laid off workers collecting state unemployment insurance exhausted their benefits, the highest rate since records were first kept in 1948, according to National Employment Law Project (NELP)."
Trying to Cope When Jobless Benefits Run Out at SmartMoney.com
shadow,
I like that. you can come to any of my meetings if you are in town.
Finally, the recovery from 2001 that was somewhat jobless had to be fed from somewhere, and credit is the obvious choice. Haven't run the numbers but we all know the home-ATM was a strong source a few years later.
This is exactly right.
Citizen Scotto (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 11:51 am
"would a debt jubilee also mean that all the money I have "loaned" my banks in accounts and CDs also goes away? (because the banks debts are also forgiven)"
In the US it would probably entail a mass simultaneous default on 80-90% of all debt.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, our local entrepreneurs have spotted a hole in the bomb market:
Brother-sister duo linked to St. Helens bomb
MS,
Thanks. For my next car, I would like the smallest, greenest, cheapest car they make.
With a motor.
half of all laid off workers exhausted their benefits
The ranks of the un-unemployed grows at a brisk pace. Where are they living? How are they eating?
CR,
It seems a little presumptuous to ask, but do you think that graph might be turned into one where you track each recession separately as different colored lines? The turning points might stand out a lot better.
Thanks for all the great posts.
Rich-
Tata has a few "models" available.......
Ciao
MS
The last time I checked the No. VA shelters were full - with the working poor. My wife says she saw a man come out of the "tree people" part of the woods with a briefcase. In cars, friends living rooms...my sisters basement holds a part of my unemployed family.
How can there be a jobless recovery this time without a new bubble?
Bingo!
we're getting the new bubble in comms. it started in March. Add in the bloated "rally" on next to no volume and we get a repeat of 2007/8...that worked out so well don't you think?
Ciao
MS
My BIL has supplemented their food for a couple years by hunting in bow, blackpowder, and rifle seasons.
"Two people were missing and 21 injured, four critically, after an explosion at a Slim Jim meat products plant in North Carolina, officials said Tuesday."
"I was picking up a piece of meat off the line and I felt it, the percussion in my chest," Woods said. "One of the guys I was working with got blown back, he flew backwards."
That's why I don't eat Slim Jims. The gas is horrible.
The ranks of the un-unemployed grows at a brisk pace.
Where are they living?
In my area, mostly in trailers (RVs) parked on someone else's land, or by renting out a room in someone else's house. Also crashing on the couch or in the basement.
How are they eating?
See underground economy, above. Drug deals, barter, under the table cash jobs. Food bank. A few B-girls.
Can't the governmet just send everyone 'Jeff Paul's Shortcut to internet millions' DVD's?
Slightly OT. I'm sure there will be some more news on moritriams expiring and inventories but I will probably miss it. I can't read as much as I used to. With Sac Landing practically dead, I'm hoping some folks here can still use the info.
Below is a comparision of trustee listings from different dates. The older dates were just searches I either saved for other people or was interested myself. In other words, almost completely random with my curiousity being the only constant.
date zip listings change
2/17/2009 95691 35
6/8/2009 95691 91 260%
7/22/2008 95817 34
6/8/2009 95817 24 71%
4/9/2008 Woodland 54
6/8/2009 Woodland 122 349%
4/11/2008 ED County 173
6/8/2009 ED County 386 223%
These are all around the Sacramento area.
95691 is full of new development that was very expensive of the location.
95817 is a depressed area that experienced some of the worst of the speculators and flippers. It still has a problem with flippers but perhaps another time...
Woodland is a central valley ag town about 15 min from Sacramento that experienced pricing pressure from Davis and Sac.
El Dorado County is a high priced exurban county which suffered lots of speculative building and monetary inflows from the Bay Area.
We had a sharp spike in trustee sales last year which is why I'm sort of grateful that I saved those searches. Locally we hear that our MSA will bottom out and come out of the recession faster because we were on the forefront of the downturn. Judging by those trustee listings and the crisis in CA, I don't think Sacramento is going to be that lucky.
Bob_in_MA, never presumptuous to ask! I was thinking about something like that ... and normalizing the data
best wishes
I wonder if there's a correlation between unemployment and small game population.
In W. VA, a chronically poor state, it is legal to eat roadkill if it is less than 48 hours old.
I personally dont' think the commodities rally can sustain & become a big bubble, with so much deflating debt and still-shrinking demand for everything. The comm prices don't reflect demand (just expectations, or "hope"),.,. but they'll eventually revert to it... not?
In W. VA, a chronically poor state, it is legal to eat roadkill if it is less than 48 hours old. - nova
And what do they do if you break the law, make you give it back? Or after it's "processed?"
In the 'Day Late' file today...been there for awhile already...
WHO chief: flu pandemic appears to be happening
By FRANK JORDANS – 1 hour ago
GENEVA (AP) — The head of the World Health Organization says the swine flu outbreak appears to have reached pandemic proportions.
WHO Director-General Margaret Chan says "on the surface of it" she believes a pandemic has been reached.
Chan says she will hold a conference call with governments Wednesday in order to verify some of the reports she has received before making a formal announcement.
She told reporters in Geneva on Tuesday that "Once I get indisputable evidence, I will make the announcement."
The article requested is no longer available.
I need a 4WD vehicle to reliably reach 'The Doomstead' during rain and snow, and am taking a hard look at another Subaru
Take a look at that article someone wrote about how people with safe houses up in the hills will just get picked off by the mountain-dwelling locals, unless they make nice with their new community.
CR on a post last week you concluded "It seems likely that the unemployment rate will continue to rise for the next 2 years or so since any recovery will probably be very sluggish".
Weak Hiring with Jobless Recovery most likely into 2011.
Hmmm 2 more years should breakdown consumer spending ( 70% of GDP ) as a key driver of the debt laden ‘bubble’ US economy
Financial engineering ponzi schemes from Wall St and Obamanomics will not save the day !
Scone,
I don't know. I think the 48 hours part was thrown in to help the locals figure out shelf life on asphalt.
Doomstead
That's good. I like SHTF Ranch.
ZeroHedge
posted a great quote from Economist:
"western governments own roughly $450 billion in banks. If markets or the economy slump again, investors’ appetite for new shares will evaporate. Of the ten banks, eight had been pressed by the government to take funds in October, amid efforts to shore up the banking system. Although some individual institutions may try to claim that they took the money unwillingly, government intervention was necessary to prevent the entire system from collapsing as banks were found to own hundreds of billions of dollars of hard-to-value assets.
Even today all banks remain plugged into government life support systems. Central banks provide generous collateral rules for borrowing, in an effort to provide banks with liquidity. Some banks have managed to issue debt without government guarantees, but the system needs to refinance some $25.6 trillion of wholesale funding by 2011: without an implicit state back stop this would be impossible. And the value of banks’ assets is being sheltered by central banks’ asset purchasing programmes and in some cases flattered by more generous accounting rules. The truth is that the West has a thinly capitalised banking system that is being allowed to earn its way back to health. Save for defence and space exploration it is hard to think of a privately-run industry more dependent on the state."
I've seen reports of people who aren't being allowed to withdraw cash from investment funds to use for living expenses, with the excuse being that the managers don't want to sell at "fire-sale" prices. "Thinly capitalized" is right...most of the assets held by the banking system are like the SD hotel that's worth a third of its last sale price. $25.6 trillion in re-funding needs!!!
I've been told that, in postwar Germany, food theft wasn't prosecutable.
"My BIL has supplemented their food for a couple years by hunting in bow, blackpowder, and rifle seasons. "
I should go down to the municipal wharf around 11 pm and look around. Always some people down there at night fishing for food -- used to be all poor Latino. Be curious to see who's down there these days. Don't need a license at the muni wharf.
@ nova
You couldn't live on road kill here, what with the coyotes, cougars, bears, badgers, etc. It's actually dangerous to go hunting back up in the hills. Not to mention the pot farmers. One of them tried to pick off my crew when we were building the house.
"Kevin O’Dell, of the law enforcement section of the Ohio Department of Natural Resources’ division of wildlife, disagrees, however, and said removing roadkill is illegal unless it’s during the hunting season of the particular animal in question. Otherwise the animal technically belongs to the state of Ohio.
“Just because an animal is lying on the road, it doesn’t give anyone permission to use it,” he said.
Penalties for violators can be as severe as a $1,000 fine and six months in jail."
The Real Roadkill Cafe
Anybody else setup to play the JPM free money pump into the close?
OK, went ahead and declared victory on that one.
Scone, They just "jack" them. A high intensity light on the truck works just fine.
“Just because an animal is lying on the road, it doesn’t give anyone permission to use it,” he said.
That's what the Sheriff of Nottingham used to say. Where's brave Sir Robin when you need him
Speed, I cannot take credit; I read it in an article someplace.
SHTF Ranch; good one.
H--, it is in northern Arizona, not the hills of WVA, so the 'local' population is all from Las Vegas, Phoenix, or San Diego, transplants all.
Bob,
I pass several waterways to and from work each day. The fishing population has increased slowly over the last 2 years but the ratio of tents to fishers has probably doubled.
b of a is picking up the tan one's legal tab.
hey, at least they are not going to fund it thru the tarp.
B. of A. picking up Mozilo's legal tab: report - MarketWatch
Bob,
A hell of thing isn't it. My guess is it probably has.
H--, it is in northern Arizona, not the hills of WVA, so the 'local' population is all from Las Vegas, Phoenix, or San Diego, transplants all.
I lived there as a kid. Not to be mean but why there?
Wowsers, reading that a House committee subpeonas Fed over BAC/MER.
@ nova
They jack the pot farmers? I wouldn't have thought that was necessary, they're pretty dazed and confused at best.
Meanwhile, we have a small rally and the VIX was under 28 for a while today... Prior to Oct 2007 a reading of 28 would have been considered high, but after it hit 90 now 28 looks pretty modest... So perhaps we are reaching a new reality, a new point of stability, where this is no growth but no real big downside either.... And for those who are writing software for UAV's or other military apps, the future looks pretty good.... We are also going to need skilled and semiskilled labor to build machinery until the truly smart robot arrives... For the rest of the population who should be working, you will have to look for janitorial and food service work, or figure out how to live on the dole somehow... It pays to educate yourself and learn every skill you can - you might be able to make some money with them but you will definitely improve your own way of life when you can do most things for yourself...
No dear. The deer.
It wasn't the credit that ended the "NBER" recession in 2001, it was the expansion of credit starting in mid-03 that brought the economy back to trend growth and substainable employment.
Of course it also caused the credit markets to act poorly in the 2004-06 years that caused the crisis of today.
No dear. The deer. - nova
Seriously? We do that here, and the deer just look at us with that annoyed "oh, please" expression, and bound off into the woods. Even the possums are unimpressed.
nova, the Seligman/Prescott National Forest area is driving distance from San Diego (450 miles); far enough away from Mexico and large cities; has deer and elk for food; has well water; can farm and ranch with well water; is relatively cool in summer (6,000 foot elevation) and not too cold in winter.
Where did you live?
My taste is much more for beef, pork, lamb, and chicken than for wild game.... If push comes to shove I'm heading out to Black Star's place and make some kind of barter deal with him.... I'm sure I have some stuff that he can use, including a little muscle power... Not to mention taking a shift on guard duty every night... And I'll bring my own ammo!
Scone, I guess you need to shoot them when they get that "oh please" look. Myself, I talk to them.
Comrade-Dope jg
I lived about 8 miles out of Page in a little shithole of a community of 4 houses, 1 corral, and 1 trailer.
Jg-dont forget turkey, pig, quail, chukar, bear and other critters up there.. actually williams area is real nice.....
Scone you live in Mendicino? just recently walked into some pvc tap into seasonal stream in sonoma..walked the other way.....
S-, I plan to raise chickens for meat and eggs and have goats or a small cow for milk. But, if I botch it -- as a city slicker, I certainly will, for a while -- I need backup beyond my wheat, beans, and powdered milk and eggs.
The drawback on our Doomstead is no streams, rivers, or lakes for fishing; have to drive 60 miles north to the Grand Canyon/Colorado River for that.
People talk about a "jobless recovery" like it happens all the time. When was the last one?
All of them since before 1990-
Edited: Oops! I meant after 1990....
It's really unfortunate that with all this federal spending, no one is looking ahead a generation and doing anything to create better conditions for business development. For $100 billion, we could probably have fiber optic cable to every home... or rollout Wimax nationwide.... I think Japan is going to own the robot market eventually... Once I tried to make the point to some Intel execs that they should be in the robot biz but they have chips on the brain... I see Intel in the same place as the railroads were in the 1880's - they thought they were in the railroad biz instead of being in the transportation biz... Intel thinks it is in the chip biz when it should be thinking beyond that... Maybe the military will eventually produce the smart robot - they already have some things that are pretty amazing...
nova, Page sure looks nice from what I saw on City-Data:
Page, Arizona (AZ 86040) profile: population, maps, real estate, averages, homes, statistics, relocation, travel, jobs, hospitals, schools, crime, moving, houses, news, sex offenders
Are you American Indian?
Yep, Williams is great, c-; however, due to its elevation of 7,000', wells are terribly expensive, so we decided against it.
nytol
Scone, I guess you need to shoot them when they get that "oh please" look. Myself, I talk to them. - nova
So do I. Maybe that's why they look so exasperated. They hate baby talk. They won't sign autographs, either. Diva deer.
yes we sure did, and it was all based on credit. how did that work out for us? that trick probably won't work again
Scone you live in Mendicino? just recently walked into some pvc tap into seasonal stream in sonoma..walked the other way..... - CCLT
No, Columbia County in Oregon. But the whole coast from Mendocino to Alaska is pot farmer land. You have to stay on the designated trails, for sure.
Your fetish with "business development" is outright scary. Sometimes, businesses can only develope so far before stagnation.Trying to force a monotheistic business perspective on a country will lead it down the path of Rollarball and eventually end of that country.
Think that was a factor behind the 2000's economic era that nobody gave a nod for. By 2000 the party was over. It looked like before 2003, the economy was going to have series of recessions as the excess slowly worked off, a true lost decade.
Creditcriminal,it is a very good idea to walk away when you see irrigation in the woods.Try to look casual when you leave and watch out for tripwires,some folks get real paranoid about their crops.
Page - nice? ROFL. Page is an Appalachian coal town transported into the middle of the desert. Page is a shithole.
Shadow, don't spend all of your money counting on continuing UAV income.
We have a rude awakening before us, and will get it this summer and fall, I think, with our first failed Treasury auction or riots in California.
Imperial America -- hundreds of bases overseas and wars fought to keep oil coming -- will become Fortress America -- greatly scaled down military, no more expensive toys and consumables, all based stateside.
"It's really unfortunate that with all this federal spending, no one is looking ahead a generation and doing anything to create better conditions for business development."
Heck, an effective national health program would help with that. Get health and disability costs off the backs of corporations (enforce work safety regs mercilessly, though), maintain moderate corporate taxes (closing the Cayman-Island type loopholes), get the revenue you need by soaking the rich until the top 1/2 of 1 percent "only" controls 20 percent of the wealth.
Comrade-Dope jg
Sorry, but I am going to rant. The idea of a mountain or whatever redoubt is ... less than a good idea. If you didn't grow up there - you are not really there. You can marry in. Church in. But not move in.
It is really a different world where family,d church and who you used to be married to are everything. In a place like that - connections are worth more than gold.
"Imperial America -- hundreds of bases overseas and wars fought to keep oil coming -- will become Fortress America -- greatly scaled down military, no more expensive toys and consumables, all based stateside."
Remember when the supermarket carried three kinds of mustard? I count 25 or 30 now, including some that will run you six or seven bucks for a small jar.
I also think cheap beer is a growth industry, too.
Cheap beer will compete with homebrew.
My parents bought generic beer -- white cans with black lettering -- on occassion in the '70s.
Whadya reckon it costs to keep a g.i. fighting in a war zone per year?
Ken, there is something weird going on with the comment system. The type place marker is jumping all around as I type.
I notice this jumping around, but only on longer comments when I exceed the size of the comment input box. I do have IE8.
Home ATM closed, credit cards tapped out, consumer spending 70% of economy with little manufacturing anyone wants. There won't be a jobless recovery this time.
homebrew is growing in popularity, but not because of doomers. Happy, peppy people.
Comrade-Dope jg (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 12:52 pm
nova, the Seligman/Prescott National Forest area is driving distance from San Diego (450 miles); far enough away from Mexico and large cities; has deer and elk for food; has well water; can farm and ranch with well water; is relatively cool in summer (6,000 foot elevation) and not too cold in winter.
I know a couple who are building a green compund where folks will get to learn design and construction techniques with the least possibly green idea: vintage car rentals for tourists who want to cruise Route 66 in a 65 Stang or a 57 Bel-Air.
Pluses: everything listed above, plus ample wind and sunshine and easily defendable/alertable.
Minuses: the natives are a squirrelly bunch, the transplants not much better, meth is as common as sodapop.
JD, I too wondered what the scale was for the aggregate hours chart. Now that I've finally read all of the posts, and see this question has not been answered, I will ask as well.
CR, what is the scale for this chart? http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/Si6hi97f-1I/AAAAAAAAFeo/azilsdqgfKs/s1600-h/WeeklyHoursIndex.jpg
Nemo, that video was one long rant, but I think the fellow made two valid points:
(1) Now that unemployment benefits are running out, does anybody know if the system can tell how many people are really unemployed? I remember in one of the previous recessions there was talk of job-seekers just giving up and no longer seeking work. I could believe this if we knew how many job seekers there are and how many of them are looking for work. This is information readily available through unemployment claims, but as these expire I would think we are losing valuable information. Please tell me the BLS has some notion of how many Americans are unemployed and unable to collect UI (due to expiration).
(2) The "vigilante" seemed to indicate he was done paying bills. I doubt economists are factoring in the moral factor in the economy. When people who consider themselves to be good, honest citizens see the rich getting richer and bums receiving assistance there is a strong incentive to give up on one's traditional values of right and wrong. I believe this could lead to widespread defaulting by people who might otherwise pay their bills (if they didn't feel stupid being the only ones to pay what they owe).
The Jobless Recovery is the new Soft Landing. When all the evidence is negative, you make up an absurd, meaningless, and arbitrary bottom boundary, and you give it a catchy name. Then as people see all the evidence that continues to point toward disaster, they can keep repeating the Doublespeak Mantra and feel reassured.
A soft landing was a complete stupidity because there is no surface on which prices can land. If you turn off the price engine, you don't fall to the ground (zero growth in prices) you fall into the singularity (zero value).
The Jobless Recovery is the same stupidity. Sure, nobody will have jobs, which you can obviously see from the statistics, but the economy will, for absolutely no reason, recover. And that "immaculate recovery" will then of course, being a recovery after all, make everything better.
First, a disclaimer. I'm economically blind (I am not up on this economic data or how its calculated), so I could be steering you in the wrong direction. I welcome any correction that leads to the correct answer.
That said, JD, I went to the BLS site. And found something that looks like the data CR posted. I believe you can generate the data here:
Table B-5. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail
When I generated the data, I saw the magic text "2002=100" which indicates all data is based on the index at 100 in 2002 (why I don't know). Since the index seems to always grow (more or less), I would guess its based upon all hours worked by all full and part time employees. To answer your question, the self-employed are not included in the survey.