When volume is down 30-40% it is not a new bull market
" ...there is now $4 trillion sitting in money market funds, even after this astonishing rally, although $120 billion has been put to action since mid-March. Still, that massive pool of money, waiting, argues that greed still hasn't overtaken fear just yet."
" ...there is now $4 trillion sitting in money market funds, even after this astonishing rally, although $120 billion has been put to action since mid-March. Still, that massive pool of money, waiting, argues that greed still hasn't overtaken fear just yet."
Seems like if the whole "cash on the sidelines" argument were valid the NIKKEI would be around 500,000 now.
there is now $4 trillion sitting in money market funds
I don't see how this is an argument for anything. Does all money have to be sucked into the black hole? Why can't this just as easily be an argument against the stock market? If U.S. stock market cap is ~$15 trillion, then for the people fully invested to liquidate 100%, the market would have to decline by ~75%. And even if the market isn't fully liquidated, when one person buys a stock, the other gets the cash. How will the cash ever not be on the sidelines?
I see the midupper incomes around me and my friends starting to be effected now... those making above 120K who moved in 2004-5 or later. Must have used mew and heloc and are getting UW ...starting to see more of the used to be 600+ going for upper 370-80's.
"Jeff Rubin: It is a new bull market and it began March 9. This is a position that we have had for some time and we have significantly increased our exposure to the market beginning in mid March and continue to do that--even today. There are many that call this just a rally, but I wonder how a 40% gain can be just a rally and not a bull market while a 40% loss is a bear market."
... and this guy gets paid to give investment advice??
Guy, guys, way too negative. Markets are up. Financial stocks up. All is good in the world. Doesn't ice cream taste sweeter when JPM is over 35? Doesn't water taste purer when BAC is above 12? Ignore middling things like defaults, unemployment, oil, or interest rates. All is good. Problems? Everyone can issue more stock. All is good in the world.
"I see the midupper incomes around me and my friends starting to be effected now... those making above 120K who moved in 2004-5 or later. Must have used mew and heloc and are getting UW .."
There are those who enjoy midupper incomes and spend them on frivolous crap. Draw your own moral from it, if you wish.
'argues that greed still hasn't overtaken fear just yet...'
The panic phase is over, however, and somebody is buying this market. If the numbers don't support the rise, then it must be psychological, motivated by a desire to make back some of the losses since last September. It could well keep picking up steam, more buyers, as the fear continues to dissipate. And money managers of all types may be under some pressure to show "results." It could well keep picking up steam, more buyers, as the fear continues to dissipate.
However, all this depends on suppressing, ignoring, or shrugging off any further bad news, and no more unexpected shocks. In other words, things were so bad last year that the mere absence of bad news makes the market look good by comparison. And the money has to go somewhere.
Well, you really only need to hold and trade selected tranches of any underlying ostrich eggs, whether actual or derivative.
And if we set it up so that some tranches receive preference or priority over other tranches, the selected tranches will actually increase in value over and above the underlying deriviative values.
I think that Scholes fellow worked up a formula, or an algorithm or something.
What's weird is how the SPY and GLD (at about the same price per share) are moving up and down together, almost to the penny. When the gap gets wider than a few pennies today, it always comes back together. It's obviously program trading. But for what?
dum luk (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 8:32 am
"June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Inventories at U.S. wholesalers fell in April for the eighth straight month as distributors tried to cut excess supply apace with decreasing sales. The 1.4 percent decline in stockpiles was larger than forecast and followed a revised 1.8 percent decrease in March that was larger than previously estimated..."
"First you need a financial derivative that lets you buy 100x more ostrich eggs than will be "produced" in the next year."
Now you can purify your drinking water in the same natural vessels used by the inhabitants of the Kalahari for ten thousand years. The average San lives for a century, and his diet consists of desert gazelle steaks washed down with water from an ostrich shell.
OT: Krugman redeeming himself a bit from yesterday's CYA equivocating about recovery. Spreading a little more roundup on the green shoots, too, good links.
The pit-bosses in the Casino Wall*Street can make the dice spin a certain way and have been dealing from the bottom of the deck of house of cards for years now, and yet many of you still continue to gamble in their establishment.
No, you won't. I don't drive that much. And I can't see gas prices being allowed to go through the roof. The inflation you're looking for is at least 2 years out, and a lot can happen in 2 years. Especially with elections coming up. Of course, you could always make it look as if inflation were being kept down, by inflating another bubble.
I wonder if this has anything to do with Timmay's trip to China?
Touting fiscal responsibility, Obama wants Congress to require itself to pay for new spending
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama is calling for Congress to pay for new increases to federal benefit programs such as health care by raising taxes or coming up with budget cuts -- a "pay-as-you-go" system that would have the force of law.
Obama will announce his proposal at an East Room event on Tuesday. The White House released details in advance.
The "PAYGO" plan would also require future tax cuts to be financed by tax increases elsewhere in the code, though exceptions are made for extending President George W. Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, as well as other tax cuts that are scheduled to expire.
rich on SPY and GLD:
"It's obviously program trading. But for what?"
Maybe someone got their indicators crossed up?
Seriously, good question, although the coincidence of the numbers themselves is probably a fluke. The fact that they seem to trade together is interesting.
Lets keep our eye on Thomas Cook and all those travel affiliates..."The group, which owns 52 percent of Thomas Cook, might have to file for insolvency and Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck told ARD television Monday: "A bankruptcy is not totally excluded"
New stress tests would mean a slight increase for in $$$ needed by the larger money center banks(due to unemployment delinquencies), while the regionals that got off fairly easy would get clobbered(due to CRE slaughter.)
n the basis of asset allocation, there was a large and, some would say, irrational move into Treasury notes back in summer and fall that continued through the first quarter. Money managers had bet on declining rates and got exactly that. Remember as rates drop bonds go up in price, and vice versa.
So basically you are saying it could go up unless it goes down.- R
No, I'm saying there's nothing to drive it down, and a lot of "will to believe" that it should go up. So, it could stay up for a few months at least, like a balloon filled with hot air. Provided there are no further shocks the market won't absorb. The market, for now, is not in a doomer mood.
Before being pigged on the last thread, scone wrote:
"Dshort, latest regression analysis with shadowstats. He makes a good argument on both sides of the "new bull market" versus "bear rally" question:" dshort.com: Regression to Trend Update
That's probably the most convincing bull case that I have seen. I tend to believe it because I observe that the Shadowstats adjustments most closely correspond to the reality that I see around me. Unfortunately, so many people believe the government numbers that the bear case has power.
A debt jubilee and a wiping of the slate would level the playing field, a financial Mulligan.
How, praytell, do you envision that working?
I know that Julius Caesar did it by reducing amount owed to original principal and counting all payment made against the principal. But he had legions in Rome, too.
No, I'm saying there's nothing to drive it down, and a lot of "will to believe" that it should go up. So, it could stay up for a few months at least, like a balloon filled with hot air.
Excess liquidity chasing deals driving asset prices up past the performance of the underlying assets. Hurm. Maybe the better description would be "like a bubble."
"There is NO SIDELINE. Life is not a dress rehearsal; it is all actually happening right before your astounded eyes. You may hold cash, buy a stock, or a bond, or gold, or tulip bulbs, and you may switch at will into and out of these various things. Your dilemma comes from thinking of cash as 'safe,' as though a pile of cash carries no inflation risk, or the risk of theft, or fire, or your own untimely demise. Is cash safer than a stock? Is a stock safer than it was two weeks ago? Should we buy Euros, or potash? Who can say ... which is safer, an angry cobra or a demented rhino?"
"I know that Julius Caesar did it by reducing amount owed to original principal and counting all payment made against the principal. But he had legions in Rome, too."
TREASURY AUCTION RESULTS
Term and Type of Security 3-Year Note
CUSIP Number 912828KX7
Series Z-2012
Interest Rate 1-7/8%
1.960%
High Yield1
Allotted at High 52.27%
Price 99.753523
Accrued Interest per $1,000 None
1.904%
Median Yield2
Low Yield3 1.800%
Issue Date June 15, 2009
Maturity Date June 15, 2012
Original Issue Date June 15, 2009
Dated Date June 15, 2009
Tendered Accepted
Hurm. Maybe the better description would be "like a bubble." - BR
Yes. A small scale bubble, reinflating in the near term, say, six months, maybe a year. Provided we don't get any more shocks, like a Presidential assassination or an alien invasion or some shit. After all, the markets have absorbed the EOTWAWKI scenario, and it has survived. There's a bit of survivor euphoria out there. It has nothing to do with rational analysis of the numbers. This is what Taleb was talking about-- people aren't evaluating the risks accurately, they're reacting emotionally. So, it's a short term "emotional" rally or bubble, if you like.
The situation would have to be so onerous that there was no alternative, and we're getting there...
JD, like I've jabbered on before, residential mortgage debt is somewhere around $12T in the U.S. If you're talking total debt wipeout, including credit card, whoa. There probably aren't enough dollars even in the figment of our administration's imagination.
I'm all for debt wipeout. I think they should have done a mortgage debt wipeout from day one. But we've already exhausted our illusionary resources and we're into ludicrously illusionary resources now, proceeding to plaid. Unless you have a couple quadrillion gazillion hanging around somewhere, I can't envision it.
JD, like I've jabbered on before, residential mortgage debt is somewhere around $12T in the U.S. If you're talking total debt wipeout, including credit card, whoa. There probably aren't enough dollars even in the figment of our administration's imagination.
I'm all for debt wipeout. I think they should have done a mortgage debt wipeout from day one. But we've already exhausted our illusionary resources and we're into ludicrously illusionary resources now, proceeding to plaid. Unless you have a couple quadrillion gazillion hanging around somewhere, I can't envision it.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Imagine a world where everybody was making $3 an hour?
That would come part and parcel with the brave new world terms probably forced upon us in future considerations for past debts dismissed.
Every dollar spent on the short-end of the curve is one dollar less for the long-end of the curve. There is simply not enough capital left in the world to chase both ends of the curve simultaneously.
China had an influx of over $400 billion in foreign currency reserves in 2008. They are expected to have less than half that amount for 2009. Couple this with an exploding bond supply and you have a recipe for total decline in bond prices.
Interest Rate ___ 1-7/8%
High Yield _____ 1.960%
Allotted at High __ 52.27%
I've been sitting in cash and bond funds for some time. I'm thinking of jumping in, for a while. Of course, if we do get a bad shock, the market will fall like a rock overnight. And about 2 years out, all the bad chickens come home to roost. So there's a window of about 18 months to 2 years where there may be some opportunity. I've also been thinking about moving some money out of American stuff altogether, maybe some Asian and Australian stuff. But I don't plan to be here in the USA forever.
Are you saying absolutely 100% scone guarantee that the market is going up from here? - R
Are you saying you know different? For sure? Are you going to put your money up against the herd, up against all the central banks? Are you feeling lucky?
I expect a spark to ignite a fuse somewhere in a financial backwater, not unlike the spark in Sarajevo that set the wheels of change in motion and augured in the end of the Habsburgs...
Talk of "recovery "won't wash in Sonoma County.A strip mall on 116 in sebastopol was boarded up about a week ago(150 yards long),whole neighborhoods in healdsburg/windsor are underwater,"For Lease" signs abound in good areas.I drove through Santa Rosa yesterday and passed a new high end office/commercial building across the street from "montgomery village" our local high end mall.The anchor tenant was 'Yogurt Time".....all the foot traffic is in the mall,across 6 lanes of traffic from this building which is 90% vacant having only 2 tenants of which "YT" is the better.Traffic was sparse at "rush hour".
Doing his exams, according to rumor. BTW, he had some trimtabs stuff that seemed to suggest outflows from American 401ks. I could be misremembering, but if that's true, maybe people are sucking out cash from the 401k as a substitute for the HELOC ATM. And if that's true, who's buying this market? Foreigners? Just wondering.
Hey look global military spending rose 4% in 2008 to a record $1,464 Trillion - up 45% since 1999
US military spending accounted for 58% of the total global spending increase during the decade, with extra funds set aside to fight the "war on terror".
In addition, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq cost the US $903bn.
"During the eight-year presidency of George W Bush, US military expenditure increased to the highest level in real terms since World War Two," Sipri said.
"This increase has contributed to soaring budget deficits," the yearbook states, pointing to how both the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts were funded "primarily through emergency supplemental appropriations outside the regular budgetary process", funded by borrowing.
Hmmm wonder what Obama will do.... U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
Look at largest budget items
- Obama should cut some the padded fat from defense /wars but will he ?
- Obama better not mess with social security or else he jeopardizes re-election chances
- Medicare/medicaid is the conundrum
- BOL interest on debt
I know I don't know anything about the future. I guess just like everyone else.
Are you going to put your money up against the herd, up against all the central banks?
Maybe. (Maybe you think central banks are all powerful, but the market has been going down since Ben intervened in August 2007, and Soros broke the BOE)
And if that's true, who's buying this market? Foreigners? Just wondering.
I believe ghostface mentioned that the $$ being pumped into the financial institutions is being redirected by them into commodities (& maybe equities)?
scone writes:
"I've also been thinking about moving some money out of American stuff altogether, maybe some Asian and Australian stuff."
I'm mostly in commodities, commodity explorers and processors, and cash. So I already have some international exposure, but it's largely dollar-denominated. I've looked at getting into other currencies, but for the short term, there appears to be a risk of a flight back into the dollar as things like the Irish ratings downgrade happen. I feel like I totally missed the opportunity to get into $AUS.
sm_landlord (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 9:59 am
...That's probably the most convincing bull case that I have seen. I tend to believe it ....
How to position, how to position?
I honestly believe that the only rational position is one of non-participation. We've discussed this here, on my blog and via emails. There's no reason oil is at $70 or the Dow at 8700. There's no series or combination of econometric datums that can explain commodities for more than a short period. Near every brilliant analysis has been negated by the rules being changed for at least the last two years.
The short answer is that hyper-cynical is the correct position.
...global military spending rose 4% in 2008 to a record $1,464 Trillion - up 45% since 1999
US military spending accounted for 58% of the total global spending increase during the decade, with extra funds set aside to fight the "war on terror".
In addition, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq cost the US $903bn.
Military spending
Arming up
Jun 8th 2009
From Economist.com
Yes, I've been saying this for some time, Obama's only alternative to inflation is chopping the military.I can't see him trying that until after the next election, if he wins.
Wars are so easy to get into (flashback to early 2003, i'm in the gym and pro-war demonstrators are outside in the rain, protesting in favor of it...) but so hard to get out of.
For the stock market to go up, or sit at any level, doesn't require huge numbers of participants. Even if only 100 shares a day traded, the "market value" would be set by those trades just as well as it would be if it traded a trillion shares a day.
Pakistan’s Geo TV reported June 9 that a bomb has exploded at a hotel in Peshwar on the Khyber road. A Geo TV correspondent says the power supply to the area has been cut off and gunshots are heard. Pakistani security forces have cordoned off the area. Several people are feared dead."
Rob Dawg writes;
"I honestly believe that the only rational position is one of non-participation.... ...The short answer is that hyper-cynical is the correct position."
The trouble is that non-participation also holds risks. There is no safe haven, at least not that I have found. We saw last year that diversification is no protection when a big enough bubble bursts. Being cynical comes easily to me, but translating that into investment strategies - not so much.
"During the eight-year presidency of George W Bush, US military expenditure increased to the highest level in real terms since World War Two," Sipri said.
"This increase has contributed to soaring budget deficits," the yearbook states, pointing to how both the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts were funded "primarily through emergency supplemental appropriations outside the regular budgetary process", funded by borrowing.
Bullshit. I don't know how to be less blunt. Less than 30% of the 2008 Federal budget went to an expanded definition of "defense." Less than under Kennedy under the old definitions.
I certainly think they're more powerful than I am, as an individual investor. I'm certainly not betting against a cabal of American, European, and Asian central banks. They are manipulating the casino, after all.
@ sm_landlord
The Aussie situation has been amazingly stable, by comparison to us or the Euros. My husband and I are retiring there, as he is a citizen. I feel pretty confident they'll do well over the long run.
Seeing how the hoi ploy view the only financial news they ever hear as somewhat of a sporting contest, it's important that the powers that be move the Dow average up and down, to give the appearance of action.
A week ago, the Dow went on a 5 day winning streak...
"US military spending accounted for 58% of the total global spending increase during the decade, with extra funds set aside to fight the "war on terror"
Well, F-14 had 50 hours of maintenance per one flight hour. At the other side, MIG-29 jet engines lasted whopping 200-300 hours before totally kaputt. Indian Air Force experiences were especially hilarious, no spare parts, half the planes down all the time.
Modern top of the line Mercedes-Benz has about 100 million lines of code, much more than in even in F-22. Still those cars last much longer than those fighters. Just wondering what kind of geniuses are writing military grade code
WASHINGTON, June 8 (Reuters) - A $100 billion bill to fund U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is rapidly accumulating extra items such as money for military aircraft the Pentagon doesn't want and possibly a scheme to jump-start sagging auto sales.
And lawmakers are also considering adding money for a plan to spur domestic car sales by offering up to $4,500 in vouchers for buyers to trade in their less fuel-efficient vehicles for ones that get better mileage, known as "cash for clunkers".
When the House and Senate originally approved their separate versions of the war bill, the White House praised lawmakers for not inserting their own pet projects in the legislation -- though some pet priorities were included.
Democratic Representative John Murtha, who heads the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, managed to get $3.1 billion for eight C-17 and 11 C-130 military transport planes included. However, that has been pared back by four C-130s.
The Pentagon did not request the aircraft but lawmakers want them to preserve jobs in their home states and Murtha disputes the military's contention that they are not needed.
Rob Dawg writes;
"I honestly believe that the only rational position is one of non-participation.... ...The short answer is that hyper-cynical is the correct position."
The trouble is that non-participation also holds risks. There is no safe haven, at least not that I have found. We saw last year that diversification is no protection when a big enough bubble bursts. Being cynical comes easily to me, but translating that into investment strategies - not so much.
Absolutely. Perhaps the better explanation of the position is "hyper-mobile non-participation." I often bring up the surfing metaphor. Get out in front of a wave and you get an exciting ride. Fall back even a bit and you get wiped out.
"$100 billion bill to fund U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is rapidly accumulating extra items such as money for military aircraft the Pentagon doesn't want and possibly a scheme to jump-start sagging auto sales."
Buy one Humwee, get a drone for free (jet engines not included).
timmyone (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:33 am
Modern top of the line Mercedes-Benz has about 100 million lines of code, much more than in even in F-22.
Cite?
Still those cars last much longer than those fighters. Just wondering what kind of geniuses are writing military grade code
The trouble is that non-participation also holds risks. There is no safe haven, at least not that I have found.
Gold is non-participation. You are effectively removed from the fiat world and false promises. That doesn't mean the nominal value of your wealth won't fluctuate, but I still think it is the best way to protect your purchasing power in times of financial stress.
German exports fell more than economists forecast in April as the global crisis restrained demand, keeping Europe’s largest economy mired in a recession. Sales abroad, adjusted for working days and seasonal changes, fell 4.8 percent from March, when they rose a revised 0.3 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists expected a 0.1 percent decline in April, according to the median of 10 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
So German exports have not touched bottom yet - they are still falling. Since the German economy is export dependent, then this implies the obvious, the German economy is still contracting. I don't think anyone ever doubted this, but looking at the way some of the material has been presented recently, it wasn't always clear.
"Modern top of the line Mercedes-Benz has about 100 million lines of code, much more than in even in F-22. Cite?"
Here:
"The avionics system in the F-22 Raptor, the current U.S. Air Force frontline jet fighter, consists of about 1.7 million lines of software code. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, scheduled to become operational in 2010, will require about 5.7 million lines of code to operate its onboard systems. And Boeing’s new 787 Dreamliner, scheduled to be delivered to customers in 2010, requires about 6.5 million lines of software code to operate its avionics and onboard support systems.
These are impressive amounts of software, yet if you bought a premium-class automobile recently, ”it probably contains close to 100 million lines of software code,” says Manfred Broy, a professor of informatics at Technical University, Munich, and a leading expert on software in cars. All that software executes on 70 to 100 microprocessor-based electronic control units (ECUs) networked throughout the body of your car.
Alfred Katzenbach, the director of information technology management at Daimler, has reportedly said that the radio and navigation system in the current S-class Mercedes-Benz requires over 20 million lines of code alone and that the car contains nearly as many ECUs as the new Airbus A380 (excluding the plane’s in-flight entertainment system). Software in cars is only going to grow in both amount and complexity. Late last year, the business research firm Frost & Sullivan estimated that cars will require 200 million to 300 million lines of software code in the near future."
The Euro Watch goes on to talk about Estonia, and Hungary. Both who are still dropping as far as industrial output. Add Latvia and Germany, the big dog, and already you are starting to see fallout other than bank losses. That would be the rise in right-wing political parties which the latest elections show are gaining popularity.
Gold. Here is my problem with Gold. You tell me where I am wrong:
Gold is a currency substitute - i.e., gold is a store of present value that doesn't generate any income to which I might be able to stake a claim
If I go out and buy 10k worth of gold and the dollar collapses in value by half so that my gold is now worth 20k worth dollars, great. The real value of my currency (store of value) has remained the same. Except, I have a problem. The grocer will only take cash (dollars) or Visa (they don't accept american express or GOLD). So, to buy food, I have to convert that gold back to dollars. Don't I then owe taxes on the 10k "gain" I made on the sale... even if that gain is no such thing?
Understandably, I still make out better holding gold than holding cash under the mattress, but the real value of my currency has still gone down by 15pct or so. Right?
Now, in the doomer scenario, where people won't take dollars, only gold, it might make sense to hold metal. However, isn't that awfully expensive and inconvenient insurance against a pretty unlikely outcome?
timmyone (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:43 am
"Modern top of the line Mercedes-Benz has about 100 million lines of code, much more than in even in F-22. Cite?"
Alfred Katzenbach, the director of information technology management at Daimler, has reportedly said that the radio and navigation system in the current S-class Mercedes-Benz requires over 20 million lines of code alone and that the car contains nearly as many ECUs as the new Airbus A380
Oh. You are mistaking "lines of code" as all being equal. One of my best friends leads the "box & cancel" weapons select features software team of the JSF. At least you admit the 100 million number is an exaggeration.
"Late last year, the business research firm Frost & Sullivan estimated that cars will require 200 million to 300 million lines of software code in the near future."
OK, that makes me very nervous. No way that much code is reliable. Even if you account for wastage from too many subsystems, each running its own embedded OS, that's just too much code to achieve a reliable product. Fortunately, a software failure in a car is probably less serious than a software failure in an F22 or a passenger jet.
I've never done a 100m line project, or been involved with one.
I have done 500K line applications, though, upwards of 30 of them. The line count isn't the most relevant statistic. Interfaces and dependencies are huge. 500K lines of deliberately dumbed-down baby-talk can be entirely manageable.
"Gold. Here is my problem with Gold. You tell me where I am wrong:"
Good points, the problem is that gold carries a lot of friction in trading. Thus it's only useful for preservation of that part of your wealth that you do not need to keep liquid. It's a tool, but it can't be the only tool in the shed.
Huh. Hey Ken, re the bug report. When I noticed my double post, I erased one and made a remark to that effect-- which was copied in the other. But people here are still commenting on my original post. It's not in my comment stream, but maybe others are seeing it. Pointer trouble?
"Oh. You are mistaking "lines of code" as all being equal. One of my best friends leads the "box & cancel" weapons select features software team of the JSF. At least you admit the 100 million number is an exaggeration."
Most likely the language of your friend's project is some variant of C or C++. Just like it is with these car related projects.
"JD, like I've jabbered on before, residential mortgage debt is somewhere around $12T in the U.S. If you're talking total debt wipeout, including credit card, whoa. There probably aren't enough dollars even in the figment of our administration's imagination."
I would argue that bank notes and credit are currency substitutes, not gold.
If I go out and buy 10k worth of gold and the dollar collapses in value by half so that my gold is now worth 20k worth dollars, great. The real value of my currency (store of value) has remained the same. Except, I have a problem. The grocer will only take cash (dollars) or Visa (they don't accept american express or GOLD). So, to buy food, I have to convert that gold back to dollars. Don't I then owe taxes on the 10k "gain" I made on the sale... even if that gain is no such thing?
Yes, in theory you owe taxes on the capital gain, but using your argument, you should not invest in anything that might appreciate. In practice, only transactions above a certain threshold are reportable by dealers. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
Gold is financial insurance. If you don't feel like you need it, you probably don't. Nothing is as concentrated or portable. You can trade it for local currency in any country in the world.
Has anybody ever boarded a commercial airliner and thought to themselves, "I sure hope this isn't the flight where I get asphyxiated along with the rest of the crew, because in lieu of 4 oxygen systems all independent of one-another (that cost $25k per seat) the airlines cheaped out and spent $500 per seat on a digitalized oxygen system?"
That's what I think happened, which would explain the lack of concern in the cockpit on the Air France flight.
Eddie Bauer is going away. Another empty space in the my Malls smile.
When I hear that name I always think of that South Park episode where they dig up the ice man and they know he's from prehistoric times because he's wearing Eddie Bauer clothing.
"I would argue that bank notes and credit are currency substitutes, not gold."
Agreed, I am coming around to the gold argument. I have never been a big gold bug, but the longer this craziness goes on (that is, the govt bailout, BB printing money, etc) the more convinced I become.
I must say the smartest thing I did was load up on oil when BB announced he was going to corner the MBS market. My first thought was "there is no free lunch, and all this money printing will pop up somewhere."
But my next thought was "I am exposed to (short) oil in my life - I drive a car, buy a lot of things that are shipped in from elsewhere, eat at restaurants where their workers drive to work, and they ship things in, etc, I am pretty happy locking in my exposure to oil at $40 a barrel."
You don't get taxed on physical gold if you buy with cash and sell for cash. Of course that rules out IRA purchases.
That guy is full of shit about LOC in a car. Even with CAN bus systems each component does have a microprocessor but these are quite simple compared to the ECM/PCM/BCM/TCM(yes i know the definition of each) and most run very little application specific code. For example your window regulator might be operated over CAN, but it probably only responds to a handful of requests.
Of course you can take a code base with a few million lines but by the time it's actually compiled only a fraction actually gets put into the binary and of that only a fraction might actually be used.
Really it's just admitting how poor of organization their software is in, but again this guy is just making an off the cuff estimate which i bet is at least an order of magnitude too high.
The ECM/TCM/PCM are quite complicated computers these days using advanced algorithms for mixture control, cam timing for internal EGR, etc. But most of this is coming from a single vendor like bosch and only some functionality is used for each specific car, and the car specific portion of the code is probably quite small.
Comrade Coinz wrote:
"Yes, in theory you owe taxes on the capital gain"
That's the kind of thing that helps keep me cynical. Capital gains tax is one thing when applied to an investment, but taxing a "gain" made by avoiding inflation and devaluation through an alternate store of money is beyond the pale. There is no real gain, only a loss due to the trading friction.
Maybe our premise is wrong. I'd rather hold currency in an interest-bearing vehicle than hold gold. You're right that there are still the same tax consequences. That leads me to question the morality of taxing interest income. Essentially, I am authorizing the government to take away part of my WEALTH every year. We all seem to agree on income, but in this discussion, interest is not income. Perhaps we should raise a challenge to the tax, not the investment vehicle.
Now, if your premise is that it's easier to evade taxes with gold... Well, I can't go with you there. Federal pound me in the a.. prison isn't for me.
One more gold comment, John Nadler, Sr. Analyst at Kitco Bullion dealers in Canada, was able to get out of communist Romania in 1972 and flee to the west because of gold. I am not saying anyone in the U.S. will have to bribe a border guard to get out, it is just a real life example to consider...
Nadler knows whereof he speaks. When he fled communist Romania in 1972, "my clothing was full of four-ducat and one-ducat coins." He has dipped into that stash three times in his life: once to leave Romania; once to buy a small piece of property; and once, more recently, when his older son was accepted at Harvard: "I thought, OK, here it is." In North America, where democratic governments and financial markets generally function, the idea that a person might have to flee with hard assets is still considered somewhat freakish. But to refugees of real cataclysms, whether the Holocaust or the civil war in Rwanda, owning hard assets to trade or barter is not only sensible, it can save your life. "That's why people see gold as the currency of ages," Nadler says.
Less than 30% of the 2008 Federal budget went to an expanded definition of "defense
Rob Dawg,
Something to keep in mind is that war spending for Iraq & Afghanistan is "off" budget. One might think such "off" budget spending wouldn't be a big deal, but it's starting to add up - almost a trillion so far.
Of course Cheney and a few others said that the Iraq war would pay for itself. BTW, Iraq oil production is down by ~ 1/3 since the war began. I'll put THAT in my "off" budget column along with $70/bbl oil.
"Jeebus, my Mercedes dealer can't even fix the a/c right."
Probably a poor design. Oh yeah any Mercedes before 2002 I hear their A/c Compressors run at least 4k because they aren't making them anymore. So some older Mercedes may be worth more in parts.
Spain is experiencing a giant real estate bubble implosion and unemployment rate in the high teens. What is the effect on their economy/financial structure and what can we learn from it if ours keeps going in that direction?
Something to keep in mind is that war spending for Iraq & Afghanistan is "off" budget. One might think such "off" budget spending wouldn't be a big deal, but it's starting to add up - almost a trillion so far.
The reason for keeping it off budget has been that it is a big deal. That's my bureaucrat's perspective.
"So some older Mercedes may be worth more in parts."
Not just Mercedes. I just spent as much to fix the headlights and grill on a Lincoln as the car is worth. But it was still cheaper than buying a new car.
"Now, if your premise is that it's easier to evade taxes with gold... Well, I can't go with you there. Federal pound me in the a.. prison isn't for me."
So you wouldn't even think of asserting your own liberty, nice.
This is why we have a long way to go before we hit bottom. People are still too afraid to do what is right therefore things will continue to get worse until enough people have nothing left to lose. The cycle repeats....
I am advancing no premise regarding the taxation of any investment vehicle. Each investment has its own rules and tax consequences. Like a credit default swap, gold is a more private investment than some others.
scone (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:19 am where's EHP? - CEF
Doing his exams, according to rumor. BTW, he had some trimtabs stuff that seemed to suggest outflows from American 401ks. I could be misremembering, but if that's true, maybe people are sucking out cash from the 401k as a substitute for the HELOC ATM. And if that's true, who's buying this market? Foreigners? Just wondering.
If you don't know who's buying this market you haven't been paying attention. Instead of making statements on market directions 18-24 months out and spending cuts by exec. branch four years out, put your psychic abilities to better use and start picking the next lotto numbers , winning horse's, over/under for Super Bowl 2010, etc.
We all seem to agree on income, but in this discussion, interest is not income. Perhaps we should raise a challenge to the tax, not the investment vehicle.
In my view the the challenge should be with the currency itself. If it was a decent store of value, you could just save and wouldn't have to play the games. I think inflation is one of the greatest crimes against the middle class, forcing us to compete against these crooks just to maintain spending power.
It is very interesting that amidst these commercial defaults there is significantly increasing activity in the residential jumbo mortgage market... Jumbo Mortgage Activity Increasing
from the end of the last thread:
When volume is down 30-40% it is not a new bull market
" ...there is now $4 trillion sitting in money market funds, even after this astonishing rally, although $120 billion has been put to action since mid-March. Still, that massive pool of money, waiting, argues that greed still hasn't overtaken fear just yet."
Keeping Cash? You're No Sucker - Forbes.com
"Baseline" or "more adverse?"
Everybody's economy is going the way of the Dodo, massive debts in every nook and cranny of the developed world...
A debt jubilee and a wiping of the slate would level the playing field, a financial Mulligan.
I can see no other option, as make-believe isn't working.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 7:35 am
Snerf,
Isn't that their job? To keep the economy from crashing?
Yes, so, HURRY UP and STOP THE CRASH!
Do Your Job.
Alright, i never do this but here goes:
lol
Here goes JPM, rapid-fire buying of the SPY. The Eye That Never Sleeps must not allow the markets to go red.
" ...there is now $4 trillion sitting in money market funds, even after this astonishing rally, although $120 billion has been put to action since mid-March. Still, that massive pool of money, waiting, argues that greed still hasn't overtaken fear just yet."
Seems like if the whole "cash on the sidelines" argument were valid the NIKKEI would be around 500,000 now.
there is now $4 trillion sitting in money market funds
I don't see how this is an argument for anything. Does all money have to be sucked into the black hole? Why can't this just as easily be an argument against the stock market? If U.S. stock market cap is ~$15 trillion, then for the people fully invested to liquidate 100%, the market would have to decline by ~75%. And even if the market isn't fully liquidated, when one person buys a stock, the other gets the cash. How will the cash ever not be on the sidelines?
I see the midupper incomes around me and my friends starting to be effected now... those making above 120K who moved in 2004-5 or later. Must have used mew and heloc and are getting UW ...starting to see more of the used to be 600+ going for upper 370-80's.
We need a Rent Czar to hold rates stable
From the Forbes article:
"Jeff Rubin: It is a new bull market and it began March 9. This is a position that we have had for some time and we have significantly increased our exposure to the market beginning in mid March and continue to do that--even today. There are many that call this just a rally, but I wonder how a 40% gain can be just a rally and not a bull market while a 40% loss is a bear market."
... and this guy gets paid to give investment advice??
Guy, guys, way too negative. Markets are up. Financial stocks up. All is good in the world. Doesn't ice cream taste sweeter when JPM is over 35? Doesn't water taste purer when BAC is above 12? Ignore middling things like defaults, unemployment, oil, or interest rates. All is good. Problems? Everyone can issue more stock. All is good in the world.
"there is now $4 trillion sitting in money market funds"
I don't see how this is an argument for anything.
With all that money sitting on the sidelines ostrich eggs should be selling for $1000 each.
"I see the midupper incomes around me and my friends starting to be effected now... those making above 120K who moved in 2004-5 or later. Must have used mew and heloc and are getting UW .."
There are those who enjoy midupper incomes and spend them on frivolous crap. Draw your own moral from it, if you wish.
Elizabeth Warren a sane voice of reason in a financial world of greedy schisters!
"With all that money sitting on the sidelines ostrich eggs should be selling for $1000 each."
First you need a mania.
pavel,
Just noting that the SP has passed and the next shoe is falling....
The $4 Trillion Horsemen of the Financial Apocalypse, now.
"pavel,
Just noting that the SP has passed and the next shoe is falling...."
Thanks, FD.
"With all that money sitting on the sidelines ostrich eggs should be selling for $1000 each."
First you need a mania.
First you need a financial derivative that lets you buy 100x more ostrich eggs than will be "produced" in the next year.
I really like the cut of the Elizabeth Warren's jib, she doesn't seem capable of a fib.
Come on Guys, am I the first to ask,"Is Liz Warren Hot, or not"1
we are all Super-Duper Adverse now.
'argues that greed still hasn't overtaken fear just yet...'
The panic phase is over, however, and somebody is buying this market. If the numbers don't support the rise, then it must be psychological, motivated by a desire to make back some of the losses since last September. It could well keep picking up steam, more buyers, as the fear continues to dissipate. And money managers of all types may be under some pressure to show "results." It could well keep picking up steam, more buyers, as the fear continues to dissipate.
However, all this depends on suppressing, ignoring, or shrugging off any further bad news, and no more unexpected shocks. In other words, things were so bad last year that the mere absence of bad news makes the market look good by comparison. And the money has to go somewhere.
See you at the gas pump, scone.
It could well keep picking up steam
So basically you are saying it could go up unless it goes down.
Well, you really only need to hold and trade selected tranches of any underlying ostrich eggs, whether actual or derivative.
And if we set it up so that some tranches receive preference or priority over other tranches, the selected tranches will actually increase in value over and above the underlying deriviative values.
I think that Scholes fellow worked up a formula, or an algorithm or something.
Your daily Green Shoots
Montgomery County, OH -30
San Francisco Fed starts the "jobless Recovery" mantra
Cops may replace crossing guards in Chicago -300
Opinion: Media falls for phony jobs claims
Hundreds of L.A. city workers plan march to protest layoffs
City of Oakland, CA considering bankruptcy
Indiana Teachers Union -35
Cape Cod, MA area schools -24
Lloyds Banking Group (UK) -1,660
Dorsey & Whitney law firm -55
American Express announces additional layoffs -4,000
Orgill Inc. -176
Monarch Textiles -123
Lake Superior College -10
Sika Corp. temp layoffs become permanent -107
GM Wentzville, MO plant eliminates shift -887
Capital Group -94
Ericsson USA -167
New Britain, CT area schools -70
City of Somerville, MA -14
Prosoco -10
HSN -15
Belmont County, WV Sheriff's Office -12
Blackhawk Foundry -50
Layoffs looming at DMAX trucking plant
Pasco County, FL Clerk -40
Palm Springs, CA area schools -123
King Phillip, MA area schools -20
Albaugh, Inc. -37
Smurfit-Stone -12
Richard Petty Motorsports -9
Rockford, MI area schools -7
Byron Township, MI proposed school employee cuts -32
MCAvoy Group -35
Eugene, OR Register-Guard Newspaper -21
Oswald Trippe Insurance -30
Untitled Document
What's weird is how the SPY and GLD (at about the same price per share) are moving up and down together, almost to the penny. When the gap gets wider than a few pennies today, it always comes back together. It's obviously program trading. But for what?
dum luk (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 8:32 am
"June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Inventories at U.S. wholesalers fell in April for the eighth straight month as distributors tried to cut excess supply apace with decreasing sales. The 1.4 percent decline in stockpiles was larger than forecast and followed a revised 1.8 percent decrease in March that was larger than previously estimated..."
Inventories at U.S. Wholesalers Fall for Eighth Month (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
This is cannibalization. Businesses will eat from their inventory before they fold. Classic street level retail warning sign is thinning inventory.
Barley (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 11:37 am
We need a Rent Czar to hold rates stable
What we REALLY need is a service that provides temporary Czars on demand... a Rent-a-Czar, if you will.
"First you need a financial derivative that lets you buy 100x more ostrich eggs than will be "produced" in the next year."
Now you can purify your drinking water in the same natural vessels used by the inhabitants of the Kalahari for ten thousand years. The average San lives for a century, and his diet consists of desert gazelle steaks washed down with water from an ostrich shell.
[Gazelle ranches in Nevada next - attention BSR]
OT: Krugman redeeming himself a bit from yesterday's CYA equivocating about recovery. Spreading a little more roundup on the green shoots, too, good links.
Dismal hours - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
The pit-bosses in the Casino Wall*Street can make the dice spin a certain way and have been dealing from the bottom of the deck of house of cards for years now, and yet many of you still continue to gamble in their establishment.
Why's that?
"And the money has to go somewhere."
That's the ticket!
See you at the gas pump, scone.
No, you won't. I don't drive that much. And I can't see gas prices being allowed to go through the roof. The inflation you're looking for is at least 2 years out, and a lot can happen in 2 years. Especially with elections coming up. Of course, you could always make it look as if inflation were being kept down, by inflating another bubble.
A debt jubilee and a wiping of the slate would level the playing field, a financial Mulligan.
How, praytell, do you envision that happening?
I wonder if this has anything to do with Timmay's trip to China?
Touting fiscal responsibility, Obama wants Congress to require itself to pay for new spending
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama is calling for Congress to pay for new increases to federal benefit programs such as health care by raising taxes or coming up with budget cuts -- a "pay-as-you-go" system that would have the force of law.
Obama will announce his proposal at an East Room event on Tuesday. The White House released details in advance.
The "PAYGO" plan would also require future tax cuts to be financed by tax increases elsewhere in the code, though exceptions are made for extending President George W. Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, as well as other tax cuts that are scheduled to expire.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
rich on SPY and GLD:
"It's obviously program trading. But for what?"
Maybe someone got their indicators crossed up?
Seriously, good question, although the coincidence of the numbers themselves is probably a fluke. The fact that they seem to trade together is interesting.
Lets keep our eye on Thomas Cook and all those travel affiliates..."The group, which owns 52 percent of Thomas Cook, might have to file for insolvency and Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck told ARD television Monday: "A bankruptcy is not totally excluded"
A debt jubilee and a wiping of the slate would level the playing field, a financial Mulligan.
How, praytell, do you envision that working?
The situation would have to be so onerous that there was no alternative, and we're getting there...
Major hotel bombing in India..Developing story
New stress tests would mean a slight increase for in $$$ needed by the larger money center banks(due to unemployment delinquencies), while the regionals that got off fairly easy would get clobbered(due to CRE slaughter.)
rich - What if it is pricing inflation? Basically that's what will drive the SPY yup anyways....
n the basis of asset allocation, there was a large and, some would say, irrational move into Treasury notes back in summer and fall that continued through the first quarter. Money managers had bet on declining rates and got exactly that. Remember as rates drop bonds go up in price, and vice versa.
good read, folks interesting finance articles</a
So basically you are saying it could go up unless it goes down.- R
No, I'm saying there's nothing to drive it down, and a lot of "will to believe" that it should go up. So, it could stay up for a few months at least, like a balloon filled with hot air. Provided there are no further shocks the market won't absorb. The market, for now, is not in a doomer mood.
"A debt jubilee and a wiping of the slate would level the playing field, a financial Mulligan.
How, praytell, do you envision that working?
The situation would have to be so onerous that there was no alternative, and we're getting there..."
A study of porcine aerodynamics discourages such speculation.
Before being pigged on the last thread, scone wrote:
"Dshort, latest regression analysis with shadowstats. He makes a good argument on both sides of the "new bull market" versus "bear rally" question:"
dshort.com: Regression to Trend Update
That's probably the most convincing bull case that I have seen. I tend to believe it because I observe that the Shadowstats adjustments most closely correspond to the reality that I see around me. Unfortunately, so many people believe the government numbers that the bear case has power.
How to position, how to position?
"Major hotel bombing in India..Developing story"
Scheisse! This is the last thing we need.
A debt jubilee and a wiping of the slate would level the playing field, a financial Mulligan.
How, praytell, do you envision that working?
I know that Julius Caesar did it by reducing amount owed to original principal and counting all payment made against the principal. But he had legions in Rome, too.
scone (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 12:58 pm
No, I'm saying there's nothing to drive it down, and a lot of "will to believe" that it should go up. So, it could stay up for a few months at least, like a balloon filled with hot air.
Excess liquidity chasing deals driving asset prices up past the performance of the underlying assets. Hurm. Maybe the better description would be "like a bubble."
How I do so enjoy watching the traders offer their wisdom.
"Rosy" is making the anti-stimulus argument that I've been making.
Overheard:
The old man said to the financial pundit:
"There is NO SIDELINE. Life is not a dress rehearsal; it is all actually happening right before your astounded eyes. You may hold cash, buy a stock, or a bond, or gold, or tulip bulbs, and you may switch at will into and out of these various things. Your dilemma comes from thinking of cash as 'safe,' as though a pile of cash carries no inflation risk, or the risk of theft, or fire, or your own untimely demise. Is cash safer than a stock? Is a stock safer than it was two weeks ago? Should we buy Euros, or potash? Who can say ... which is safer, an angry cobra or a demented rhino?"
BBC reports an explosion outside a hotel in Peshawar, Pakistan.
"I know that Julius Caesar did it by reducing amount owed to original principal and counting all payment made against the principal. But he had legions in Rome, too."
So that's why he had to beware the ides of March.
Today's Auction Results
TREASURY AUCTION RESULTS
Term and Type of Security 3-Year Note
CUSIP Number 912828KX7
Series Z-2012
Interest Rate 1-7/8%
1.960%
High Yield1
Allotted at High 52.27%
Price 99.753523
Accrued Interest per $1,000 None
1.904%
Median Yield2
Low Yield3 1.800%
Issue Date June 15, 2009
Maturity Date June 15, 2012
Original Issue Date June 15, 2009
Dated Date June 15, 2009
Tendered Accepted
Competitive $98,600,700,000 $34,908,089,900
Noncompetitive $92,042,400 $92,042,400
FIMA (Noncompetitive) $0 $0
Subtotal4 $98,692,742,400 $35,000,132,3005
SOMA $369,923,200 $369,923,200
Total $99,062,665,600 $35,370,055,500
Tendered Accepted
Primary Dealer6 $65,740,000,000 $14,126,160,000
Direct Bidder7 $13,551,700,000 $5,507,039,900
Indirect Bidder8 $19,309,000,000 $15,274,890,000
Total Competitive $98,600,700,000 $34,908,089,900
pavel,
simultanious at India and Pak?
No, I'm saying there's nothing to drive it down
Wow, I guess everyone should be bullish then.
Hurm. Maybe the better description would be "like a bubble." - BR
Yes. A small scale bubble, reinflating in the near term, say, six months, maybe a year. Provided we don't get any more shocks, like a Presidential assassination or an alien invasion or some shit. After all, the markets have absorbed the EOTWAWKI scenario, and it has survived. There's a bit of survivor euphoria out there. It has nothing to do with rational analysis of the numbers. This is what Taleb was talking about-- people aren't evaluating the risks accurately, they're reacting emotionally. So, it's a short term "emotional" rally or bubble, if you like.
The situation would have to be so onerous that there was no alternative, and we're getting there...
JD, like I've jabbered on before, residential mortgage debt is somewhere around $12T in the U.S. If you're talking total debt wipeout, including credit card, whoa. There probably aren't enough dollars even in the figment of our administration's imagination.
I'm all for debt wipeout. I think they should have done a mortgage debt wipeout from day one. But we've already exhausted our illusionary resources and we're into ludicrously illusionary resources now, proceeding to plaid. Unless you have a couple quadrillion gazillion hanging around somewhere, I can't envision it.
Wow, I guess everyone should be bullish then.- R
No, everyone should see things as they are, but they don't. Of course, you could short the market, bet against the herd, and take the loss.
When I was a kid Croatians had quite the reputation as mad-bombers, but the Muslims have really blown them out of the water...
"pavel,
simultanious at India and Pak?"
I don't see it.
I can't bring myself to go long anything. I'm getting kicked in the shorts. Thus, I just can't help but lose money right now. Yee haw!
No word on Internet news outlets on bombings, yet?
pavel, so first report of india was erronious? corrected to be pakistan? Probably taliban retaliation then...
Indirect bidders buy 43.8% of 3-year notes
- 404 |
Outsider:
JD, like I've jabbered on before, residential mortgage debt is somewhere around $12T in the U.S. If you're talking total debt wipeout, including credit card, whoa. There probably aren't enough dollars even in the figment of our administration's imagination.
I'm all for debt wipeout. I think they should have done a mortgage debt wipeout from day one. But we've already exhausted our illusionary resources and we're into ludicrously illusionary resources now, proceeding to plaid. Unless you have a couple quadrillion gazillion hanging around somewhere, I can't envision it.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Imagine a world where everybody was making $3 an hour?
That would come part and parcel with the brave new world terms probably forced upon us in future considerations for past debts dismissed.
that's the PAK bomb link
Boy, do those people lending 30 yr mortgages at 4.5% look stupid, already.
Wait, a second, that's us the taxpayers!
Krugman: “I would not be surprised if the official end of the U.S. recession ends up being, in retrospect, dated sometime this summer"
"Get my swan costume ready", Anna Pavlova, Russian ballerina.
"I'm ashamed of you, dodging that way. They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance.", Major General John Sedgwick, May 9, 1864.
"This is a hell of a way to die", George S. Patton, after being admitted to the hospital after a car accident while out hunting.
Every dollar spent on the short-end of the curve is one dollar less for the long-end of the curve. There is simply not enough capital left in the world to chase both ends of the curve simultaneously.
China had an influx of over $400 billion in foreign currency reserves in 2008. They are expected to have less than half that amount for 2009. Couple this with an exploding bond supply and you have a recipe for total decline in bond prices.
Interest Rate ___ 1-7/8%
High Yield _____ 1.960%
Allotted at High __ 52.27%
Primary Dealer_________ $65,740,000,000 _________ $14,126,160,000
Direct Bidder __________ $13,551,700,000 __________ $5,507,039,900
Indirect Bidder _________ $19,309,000,000 _________ $15,274,890,000
Total Competitive_______ $98,600,700,000 _________ $34,908,089,900
Of course, you could short the market, bet against the herd, and take the loss.
Are you saying absolutely 100% scone guarantee that the market is going up from here?
Imagine a world where everybody was making $3 an hour?
That would come part and parcel with the brave new world terms probably forced upon us in future considerations for past debts dismissed.
Debt jubilee is overrated. Let's move on.
How to position, how to position? - sm_landlord
I've been sitting in cash and bond funds for some time. I'm thinking of jumping in, for a while. Of course, if we do get a bad shock, the market will fall like a rock overnight. And about 2 years out, all the bad chickens come home to roost. So there's a window of about 18 months to 2 years where there may be some opportunity. I've also been thinking about moving some money out of American stuff altogether, maybe some Asian and Australian stuff. But I don't plan to be here in the USA forever.
Are you saying absolutely 100% scone guarantee that the market is going up from here? - R
Are you saying you know different? For sure? Are you going to put your money up against the herd, up against all the central banks? Are you feeling lucky?
where's EHP?
timmyone (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:12 am
"I'm ashamed of you, dodging that way. They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance.", Major General John Sedgwick, May 9, 1864.
ROTFLMAO!
I expect a spark to ignite a fuse somewhere in a financial backwater, not unlike the spark in Sarajevo that set the wheels of change in motion and augured in the end of the Habsburgs...
Talk of "recovery "won't wash in Sonoma County.A strip mall on 116 in sebastopol was boarded up about a week ago(150 yards long),whole neighborhoods in healdsburg/windsor are underwater,"For Lease" signs abound in good areas.I drove through Santa Rosa yesterday and passed a new high end office/commercial building across the street from "montgomery village" our local high end mall.The anchor tenant was 'Yogurt Time".....all the foot traffic is in the mall,across 6 lanes of traffic from this building which is 90% vacant having only 2 tenants of which "YT" is the better.Traffic was sparse at "rush hour".
where's EHP? - CEF
Doing his exams, according to rumor. BTW, he had some trimtabs stuff that seemed to suggest outflows from American 401ks. I could be misremembering, but if that's true, maybe people are sucking out cash from the 401k as a substitute for the HELOC ATM. And if that's true, who's buying this market? Foreigners? Just wondering.
Hey look global military spending rose 4% in 2008 to a record $1,464 Trillion - up 45% since 1999
US military spending accounted for 58% of the total global spending increase during the decade, with extra funds set aside to fight the "war on terror".
In addition, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq cost the US $903bn.
"During the eight-year presidency of George W Bush, US military expenditure increased to the highest level in real terms since World War Two," Sipri said.
"This increase has contributed to soaring budget deficits," the yearbook states, pointing to how both the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts were funded "primarily through emergency supplemental appropriations outside the regular budgetary process", funded by borrowing.
Hmmm wonder what Obama will do....
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
Look at largest budget items
- Obama should cut some the padded fat from defense /wars but will he ?
- Obama better not mess with social security or else he jeopardizes re-election chances
- Medicare/medicaid is the conundrum
- BOL interest on debt
Are you saying you know different?
I know I don't know anything about the future. I guess just like everyone else.
Are you going to put your money up against the herd, up against all the central banks?
Maybe. (Maybe you think central banks are all powerful, but the market has been going down since Ben intervened in August 2007, and Soros broke the BOE)
Are you feeling lucky?
Not especially.
And if that's true, who's buying this market? Foreigners? Just wondering.
I believe ghostface mentioned that the $$ being pumped into the financial institutions is being redirected by them into commodities (& maybe equities)?
BBAD would liquidate the 401k, wouldn't they. heloc helots no longer, time to eat the seed corn.
scone writes:
"I've also been thinking about moving some money out of American stuff altogether, maybe some Asian and Australian stuff."
I'm mostly in commodities, commodity explorers and processors, and cash. So I already have some international exposure, but it's largely dollar-denominated. I've looked at getting into other currencies, but for the short term, there appears to be a risk of a flight back into the dollar as things like the Irish ratings downgrade happen. I feel like I totally missed the opportunity to get into $AUS.
sm_landlord (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 9:59 am
...That's probably the most convincing bull case that I have seen. I tend to believe it ....
How to position, how to position?
I honestly believe that the only rational position is one of non-participation. We've discussed this here, on my blog and via emails. There's no reason oil is at $70 or the Dow at 8700. There's no series or combination of econometric datums that can explain commodities for more than a short period. Near every brilliant analysis has been negated by the rules being changed for at least the last two years.
The short answer is that hyper-cynical is the correct position.
...global military spending rose 4% in 2008 to a record $1,464 Trillion - up 45% since 1999
US military spending accounted for 58% of the total global spending increase during the decade, with extra funds set aside to fight the "war on terror".
In addition, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq cost the US $903bn.
Military spending
Arming up
Jun 8th 2009
From Economist.com
The world's biggest military spenders by population
Premium content | Economist.com
@ km4
Yes, I've been saying this for some time, Obama's only alternative to inflation is chopping the military.I can't see him trying that until after the next election, if he wins.
Exams in mid-June?
Wars are so easy to get into (flashback to early 2003, i'm in the gym and pro-war demonstrators are outside in the rain, protesting in favor of it...) but so hard to get out of.
For the stock market to go up, or sit at any level, doesn't require huge numbers of participants. Even if only 100 shares a day traded, the "market value" would be set by those trades just as well as it would be if it traded a trillion shares a day.
vot shto:
" June 9, 2009
Pakistan’s Geo TV reported June 9 that a bomb has exploded at a hotel in Peshwar on the Khyber road. A Geo TV correspondent says the power supply to the area has been cut off and gunshots are heard. Pakistani security forces have cordoned off the area. Several people are feared dead."
Rob Dawg writes;
"I honestly believe that the only rational position is one of non-participation.... ...The short answer is that hyper-cynical is the correct position."
The trouble is that non-participation also holds risks. There is no safe haven, at least not that I have found. We saw last year that diversification is no protection when a big enough bubble bursts. Being cynical comes easily to me, but translating that into investment strategies - not so much.
"During the eight-year presidency of George W Bush, US military expenditure increased to the highest level in real terms since World War Two," Sipri said.
"This increase has contributed to soaring budget deficits," the yearbook states, pointing to how both the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts were funded "primarily through emergency supplemental appropriations outside the regular budgetary process", funded by borrowing.
Bullshit. I don't know how to be less blunt. Less than 30% of the 2008 Federal budget went to an expanded definition of "defense." Less than under Kennedy under the old definitions.
Maybe you think central banks are all powerful- R
I certainly think they're more powerful than I am, as an individual investor. I'm certainly not betting against a cabal of American, European, and Asian central banks. They are manipulating the casino, after all.
@ sm_landlord
The Aussie situation has been amazingly stable, by comparison to us or the Euros. My husband and I are retiring there, as he is a citizen. I feel pretty confident they'll do well over the long run.
Exams in mid-June? - Outsider
Maybe orals? Isn't he doing a Ph.D.?
Seeing how the hoi ploy view the only financial news they ever hear as somewhat of a sporting contest, it's important that the powers that be move the Dow average up and down, to give the appearance of action.
A week ago, the Dow went on a 5 day winning streak...
That's how J6P & Jane Chardonnay look at things~
"US military spending accounted for 58% of the total global spending increase during the decade, with extra funds set aside to fight the "war on terror"
Well, F-14 had 50 hours of maintenance per one flight hour. At the other side, MIG-29 jet engines lasted whopping 200-300 hours before totally kaputt. Indian Air Force experiences were especially hilarious, no spare parts, half the planes down all the time.
Modern top of the line Mercedes-Benz has about 100 million lines of code, much more than in even in F-22. Still those cars last much longer than those fighters. Just wondering what kind of geniuses are writing military grade code
WASHINGTON, June 8 (Reuters) - A $100 billion bill to fund U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is rapidly accumulating extra items such as money for military aircraft the Pentagon doesn't want and possibly a scheme to jump-start sagging auto sales.
And lawmakers are also considering adding money for a plan to spur domestic car sales by offering up to $4,500 in vouchers for buyers to trade in their less fuel-efficient vehicles for ones that get better mileage, known as "cash for clunkers".
When the House and Senate originally approved their separate versions of the war bill, the White House praised lawmakers for not inserting their own pet projects in the legislation -- though some pet priorities were included.
Democratic Representative John Murtha, who heads the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, managed to get $3.1 billion for eight C-17 and 11 C-130 military transport planes included. However, that has been pared back by four C-130s.
The Pentagon did not request the aircraft but lawmakers want them to preserve jobs in their home states and Murtha disputes the military's contention that they are not needed.
Rob Dawg writes;
"I honestly believe that the only rational position is one of non-participation.... ...The short answer is that hyper-cynical is the correct position."
The trouble is that non-participation also holds risks. There is no safe haven, at least not that I have found. We saw last year that diversification is no protection when a big enough bubble bursts. Being cynical comes easily to me, but translating that into investment strategies - not so much.
Absolutely. Perhaps the better explanation of the position is "hyper-mobile non-participation." I often bring up the surfing metaphor. Get out in front of a wave and you get an exciting ride. Fall back even a bit and you get wiped out.
Maybe orals? Isn't he doing a Ph.D.?
Could be. Whatever he's doing, I'm sure he'll come thru w/flying colors (go EHP!!!)
I'd still love to know his IQ.
"$100 billion bill to fund U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is rapidly accumulating extra items such as money for military aircraft the Pentagon doesn't want and possibly a scheme to jump-start sagging auto sales."
Buy one Humwee, get a drone for free (jet engines not included).
timmyone (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:33 am
Modern top of the line Mercedes-Benz has about 100 million lines of code, much more than in even in F-22.
Cite?
Still those cars last much longer than those fighters. Just wondering what kind of geniuses are writing military grade code
Cite?
sm_landlord wrote:
The trouble is that non-participation also holds risks. There is no safe haven, at least not that I have found.
Gold is non-participation. You are effectively removed from the fiat world and false promises. That doesn't mean the nominal value of your wealth won't fluctuate, but I still think it is the best way to protect your purchasing power in times of financial stress.
Fresh from Euro watch blog
German exports fell more than economists forecast in April as the global crisis restrained demand, keeping Europe’s largest economy mired in a recession. Sales abroad, adjusted for working days and seasonal changes, fell 4.8 percent from March, when they rose a revised 0.3 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists expected a 0.1 percent decline in April, according to the median of 10 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.
So German exports have not touched bottom yet - they are still falling. Since the German economy is export dependent, then this implies the obvious, the German economy is still contracting. I don't think anyone ever doubted this, but looking at the way some of the material has been presented recently, it wasn't always clear.
oops, double post?
Huh. That's interesting. A bug, I think.
" ac (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 12:44 pm
"With all that money sitting on the sidelines ostrich eggs should be selling for $1000 each."
First you need a mania.
First you need a financial derivative that lets you buy 100x more ostrich eggs than will be "produced" in the next year."
What about a CDS for Ostrich Egg producers?
Then, when ostrich eggs triple, somebody opens an ETF based on swaps.
"Modern top of the line Mercedes-Benz has about 100 million lines of code, much more than in even in F-22. Cite?"
Here:
"The avionics system in the F-22 Raptor, the current U.S. Air Force frontline jet fighter, consists of about 1.7 million lines of software code. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, scheduled to become operational in 2010, will require about 5.7 million lines of code to operate its onboard systems. And Boeing’s new 787 Dreamliner, scheduled to be delivered to customers in 2010, requires about 6.5 million lines of software code to operate its avionics and onboard support systems.
These are impressive amounts of software, yet if you bought a premium-class automobile recently, ”it probably contains close to 100 million lines of software code,” says Manfred Broy, a professor of informatics at Technical University, Munich, and a leading expert on software in cars. All that software executes on 70 to 100 microprocessor-based electronic control units (ECUs) networked throughout the body of your car.
Alfred Katzenbach, the director of information technology management at Daimler, has reportedly said that the radio and navigation system in the current S-class Mercedes-Benz requires over 20 million lines of code alone and that the car contains nearly as many ECUs as the new Airbus A380 (excluding the plane’s in-flight entertainment system). Software in cars is only going to grow in both amount and complexity. Late last year, the business research firm Frost & Sullivan estimated that cars will require 200 million to 300 million lines of software code in the near future."
IEEE Spectrum: This Car Runs on Code
I heard that Ostrich Eggs are good luck. And they attract women. Rich women.
(There. I'm getting you started. Now run with it.)
The Euro Watch goes on to talk about Estonia, and Hungary. Both who are still dropping as far as industrial output. Add Latvia and Germany, the big dog, and already you are starting to see fallout other than bank losses. That would be the rise in right-wing political parties which the latest elections show are gaining popularity.
timmy,
thats why MB's are always in the service bin, and planes keep flying, pay by the code...
Tell you one thing, though... if that Air France crash turns out to be software, Airbus has an epic PR disaster on its hands.
"All I know is, essentially every penny we have is in cash, American dollars. Either directly, in money market funds and CDs, or in the house."
99% of Americans are All-In on a hand of dollar-denominated cards, which makes it really easy for the 1% that aren't, to clean-up on the 99%.
Does anybody have that link, or recall it, from the other day regarding Euro banks' Baltic/East European exposure by country?
Thanks.
Jeebus, my Mercedes dealer can't even fix the a/c right.
it probably contains close to 100 million lines of software code
Lines of code can't be used as a single metric to measure the complexity of a system or between disparate systems.
The E class has 2 batteries to run all that crap now. I guess the new ones will have as many batteries as a Prius.
Gold. Here is my problem with Gold. You tell me where I am wrong:
Gold is a currency substitute - i.e., gold is a store of present value that doesn't generate any income to which I might be able to stake a claim
If I go out and buy 10k worth of gold and the dollar collapses in value by half so that my gold is now worth 20k worth dollars, great. The real value of my currency (store of value) has remained the same. Except, I have a problem. The grocer will only take cash (dollars) or Visa (they don't accept american express or GOLD). So, to buy food, I have to convert that gold back to dollars. Don't I then owe taxes on the 10k "gain" I made on the sale... even if that gain is no such thing?
Understandably, I still make out better holding gold than holding cash under the mattress, but the real value of my currency has still gone down by 15pct or so. Right?
Now, in the doomer scenario, where people won't take dollars, only gold, it might make sense to hold metal. However, isn't that awfully expensive and inconvenient insurance against a pretty unlikely outcome?
What am I missing?
timmyone (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:43 am
"Modern top of the line Mercedes-Benz has about 100 million lines of code, much more than in even in F-22. Cite?"
Alfred Katzenbach, the director of information technology management at Daimler, has reportedly said that the radio and navigation system in the current S-class Mercedes-Benz requires over 20 million lines of code alone and that the car contains nearly as many ECUs as the new Airbus A380
Oh. You are mistaking "lines of code" as all being equal. One of my best friends leads the "box & cancel" weapons select features software team of the JSF. At least you admit the 100 million number is an exaggeration.
"Late last year, the business research firm Frost & Sullivan estimated that cars will require 200 million to 300 million lines of software code in the near future."
OK, that makes me very nervous. No way that much code is reliable. Even if you account for wastage from too many subsystems, each running its own embedded OS, that's just too much code to achieve a reliable product. Fortunately, a software failure in a car is probably less serious than a software failure in an F22 or a passenger jet.
I've never done a 100m line project, or been involved with one.
I have done 500K line applications, though, upwards of 30 of them. The line count isn't the most relevant statistic. Interfaces and dependencies are huge. 500K lines of deliberately dumbed-down baby-talk can be entirely manageable.
"I've also been thinking about moving some money out of American stuff altogether, maybe some Asian and Australian stuff."
I hear the Thai stuff is pretty good.....
What am I missing?
You don't have the "bug?"
"I heard that Ostrich Eggs are good luck. And they attract women. Rich women."
What do you do? Stuff them in your pants?
Those aren't eating eggs, those are the aphrodisiacal eggs.
I bought an ostrich egg in Az. from an ostrich farm there.
There's the equivalent of a dozen AA chicken eggs in there, and they score the top, so you can crack it open.
"Gold. Here is my problem with Gold. You tell me where I am wrong:"
Good points, the problem is that gold carries a lot of friction in trading. Thus it's only useful for preservation of that part of your wealth that you do not need to keep liquid. It's a tool, but it can't be the only tool in the shed.
"The E class has 2 batteries to run all that crap now. I guess the new ones will have as many batteries as a Prius. "
Not to give German engineers any ideas..but human body is actually quite a good battery
How long between selling your stocks and getting paid does it take?, if we want to get persnickety about liquidity...
ZackAttack (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:45 am
Tell you one thing, though... if that Air France crash turns out to be software, Airbus has an epic PR disaster on its hands.
My money is on a routine pitot tube failure fooling the software.
Huh. Hey Ken, re the bug report. When I noticed my double post, I erased one and made a remark to that effect-- which was copied in the other. But people here are still commenting on my original post. It's not in my comment stream, but maybe others are seeing it. Pointer trouble?
"Oh. You are mistaking "lines of code" as all being equal. One of my best friends leads the "box & cancel" weapons select features software team of the JSF. At least you admit the 100 million number is an exaggeration."
Most likely the language of your friend's project is some variant of C or C++. Just like it is with these car related projects.
100 million would be a lot of LOC even in assembler.
outsider says,
"JD, like I've jabbered on before, residential mortgage debt is somewhere around $12T in the U.S. If you're talking total debt wipeout, including credit card, whoa. There probably aren't enough dollars even in the figment of our administration's imagination."
Someone has to pay for a debt jubilee?
How does that work?
What do you do? Stuff them in your pants?
Only if you need to.
RockyR wrote:
Gold is a currency substitute
I would argue that bank notes and credit are currency substitutes, not gold.
If I go out and buy 10k worth of gold and the dollar collapses in value by half so that my gold is now worth 20k worth dollars, great. The real value of my currency (store of value) has remained the same. Except, I have a problem. The grocer will only take cash (dollars) or Visa (they don't accept american express or GOLD). So, to buy food, I have to convert that gold back to dollars. Don't I then owe taxes on the 10k "gain" I made on the sale... even if that gain is no such thing?
Yes, in theory you owe taxes on the capital gain, but using your argument, you should not invest in anything that might appreciate. In practice, only transactions above a certain threshold are reportable by dealers. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
Gold is financial insurance. If you don't feel like you need it, you probably don't. Nothing is as concentrated or portable. You can trade it for local currency in any country in the world.
Eddie Bauer is going away. Another empty space in the my Malls smile.
Has anybody ever boarded a commercial airliner and thought to themselves, "I sure hope this isn't the flight where I get asphyxiated along with the rest of the crew, because in lieu of 4 oxygen systems all independent of one-another (that cost $25k per seat) the airlines cheaped out and spent $500 per seat on a digitalized oxygen system?"
That's what I think happened, which would explain the lack of concern in the cockpit on the Air France flight.
Eddie Bauer is going away. Another empty space in the my Malls smile.
When I hear that name I always think of that South Park episode where they dig up the ice man and they know he's from prehistoric times because he's wearing Eddie Bauer clothing.
ac,
a south park republican, i knew it!
Eddie Bauer was such a great place for cougar citings, milf-y outdoor quadragenarians prowling around, but evidently not buying anything...
What do you do? Stuff them in your pants?
Oh please. don't be silly.
You crack them over your head and then leave them there. Don't rinse.
Go ahead and try it. I heard on the internet it's virtually guaranteed.
"I would argue that bank notes and credit are currency substitutes, not gold."
Agreed, I am coming around to the gold argument. I have never been a big gold bug, but the longer this craziness goes on (that is, the govt bailout, BB printing money, etc) the more convinced I become.
I must say the smartest thing I did was load up on oil when BB announced he was going to corner the MBS market. My first thought was "there is no free lunch, and all this money printing will pop up somewhere."
But my next thought was "I am exposed to (short) oil in my life - I drive a car, buy a lot of things that are shipped in from elsewhere, eat at restaurants where their workers drive to work, and they ship things in, etc, I am pretty happy locking in my exposure to oil at $40 a barrel."
Increasing Numbers of Homeowners Withholding Their Mortgage Payments?
Are Increasing Numbers of Homeowners Withholding Their Mortgage Payments? | RISMedia
You don't get taxed on physical gold if you buy with cash and sell for cash. Of course that rules out IRA purchases.
That guy is full of shit about LOC in a car. Even with CAN bus systems each component does have a microprocessor but these are quite simple compared to the ECM/PCM/BCM/TCM(yes i know the definition of each) and most run very little application specific code. For example your window regulator might be operated over CAN, but it probably only responds to a handful of requests.
Of course you can take a code base with a few million lines but by the time it's actually compiled only a fraction actually gets put into the binary and of that only a fraction might actually be used.
Really it's just admitting how poor of organization their software is in, but again this guy is just making an off the cuff estimate which i bet is at least an order of magnitude too high.
The ECM/TCM/PCM are quite complicated computers these days using advanced algorithms for mixture control, cam timing for internal EGR, etc. But most of this is coming from a single vendor like bosch and only some functionality is used for each specific car, and the car specific portion of the code is probably quite small.
Comrade Coinz wrote:
"Yes, in theory you owe taxes on the capital gain"
That's the kind of thing that helps keep me cynical. Capital gains tax is one thing when applied to an investment, but taxing a "gain" made by avoiding inflation and devaluation through an alternate store of money is beyond the pale. There is no real gain, only a loss due to the trading friction.
Yes, I know, defining the distinction is tricky.
How does that work?
Otis, JD said it would require $3/hr. worldwide wages and something about undesirable outcomes. so scratch that idea. Unless you can figure it out.
Coinz,
Maybe our premise is wrong. I'd rather hold currency in an interest-bearing vehicle than hold gold. You're right that there are still the same tax consequences. That leads me to question the morality of taxing interest income. Essentially, I am authorizing the government to take away part of my WEALTH every year. We all seem to agree on income, but in this discussion, interest is not income. Perhaps we should raise a challenge to the tax, not the investment vehicle.
Now, if your premise is that it's easier to evade taxes with gold... Well, I can't go with you there. Federal pound me in the a.. prison isn't for me.
One more gold comment, John Nadler, Sr. Analyst at Kitco Bullion dealers in Canada, was able to get out of communist Romania in 1972 and flee to the west because of gold. I am not saying anyone in the U.S. will have to bribe a border guard to get out, it is just a real life example to consider...
Nadler knows whereof he speaks. When he fled communist Romania in 1972, "my clothing was full of four-ducat and one-ducat coins." He has dipped into that stash three times in his life: once to leave Romania; once to buy a small piece of property; and once, more recently, when his older son was accepted at Harvard: "I thought, OK, here it is." In North America, where democratic governments and financial markets generally function, the idea that a person might have to flee with hard assets is still considered somewhat freakish. But to refugees of real cataclysms, whether the Holocaust or the civil war in Rwanda, owning hard assets to trade or barter is not only sensible, it can save your life. "That's why people see gold as the currency of ages," Nadler says.
Less than 30% of the 2008 Federal budget went to an expanded definition of "defense
Rob Dawg,
Something to keep in mind is that war spending for Iraq & Afghanistan is "off" budget. One might think such "off" budget spending wouldn't be a big deal, but it's starting to add up - almost a trillion so far.
Of course Cheney and a few others said that the Iraq war would pay for itself. BTW, Iraq oil production is down by ~ 1/3 since the war began. I'll put THAT in my "off" budget column along with $70/bbl oil.
What if you had $10k in glod in non-reportable form and it went up to $20k and you just sold 1/2 of your stash and claimed you broke even?
Who would be the wiser?
"Jeebus, my Mercedes dealer can't even fix the a/c right."
Probably a poor design. Oh yeah any Mercedes before 2002 I hear their A/c Compressors run at least 4k because they aren't making them anymore. So some older Mercedes may be worth more in parts.
I'm sure I'll get pigged, but here goes anyhow...
Spain is experiencing a giant real estate bubble implosion and unemployment rate in the high teens. What is the effect on their economy/financial structure and what can we learn from it if ours keeps going in that direction?
Something to keep in mind is that war spending for Iraq & Afghanistan is "off" budget. One might think such "off" budget spending wouldn't be a big deal, but it's starting to add up - almost a trillion so far.
The reason for keeping it off budget has been that it is a big deal. That's my bureaucrat's perspective.
"So some older Mercedes may be worth more in parts."
Not just Mercedes. I just spent as much to fix the headlights and grill on a Lincoln as the car is worth. But it was still cheaper than buying a new car.
You don't get taxed on physical gold if you buy with cash and sell for cash.
don't you technically have to report that as capital gains?
edit: oops. comrade coinz already said yes.
"Now, if your premise is that it's easier to evade taxes with gold... Well, I can't go with you there. Federal pound me in the a.. prison isn't for me."
So you wouldn't even think of asserting your own liberty, nice.
This is why we have a long way to go before we hit bottom. People are still too afraid to do what is right therefore things will continue to get worse until enough people have nothing left to lose. The cycle repeats....
@RockyR,
I am advancing no premise regarding the taxation of any investment vehicle. Each investment has its own rules and tax consequences. Like a credit default swap, gold is a more private investment than some others.
I can smell a pig sniffing for new news truffles...
scone (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:19 am where's EHP? - CEF
Doing his exams, according to rumor. BTW, he had some trimtabs stuff that seemed to suggest outflows from American 401ks. I could be misremembering, but if that's true, maybe people are sucking out cash from the 401k as a substitute for the HELOC ATM. And if that's true, who's buying this market? Foreigners? Just wondering.
If you don't know who's buying this market you haven't been paying attention. Instead of making statements on market directions 18-24 months out and spending cuts by exec. branch four years out, put your psychic abilities to better use and start picking the next lotto numbers , winning horse's, over/under for Super Bowl 2010, etc.
We all seem to agree on income, but in this discussion, interest is not income. Perhaps we should raise a challenge to the tax, not the investment vehicle.
In my view the the challenge should be with the currency itself. If it was a decent store of value, you could just save and wouldn't have to play the games. I think inflation is one of the greatest crimes against the middle class, forcing us to compete against these crooks just to maintain spending power.
NAZ volume has improved - NYSE .... not so much
Shark Investing - Volume Charts
Imagine the Yankee Dollar being worth 1/800th of it's previous value in terms of how other countries valued it?
Mexico late 1970's to early 1990's
Could it happen here... Are we Americans immune to hyperdevaluation?
If you don't know who's buying this market you haven't been paying attention. - TANA
And if you know who does, you're WAY too smart for us here. Engaging ignore.
regarding the "$4t" sitting this out so far. I'm surprised that the old, tired CAPEX argument has not been trotted out...
About as relevant too.
Ciao
MS
Scone,
When you "engage ignore" does your computer make a cool sound?
dupe
scone-
punch up L2 on the SPY.....you'll see that someone is selling a shitload to themselves. Regarding who it is...that is the speculative part.
Ciao
MS
When you "engage ignore" does your computer make a cool sound? - nova
Yep, a Bronx cheer.
scone,
you need to fix that.
@ nova
Maybe an "oink" sound?
It is very interesting that amidst these commercial defaults there is significantly increasing activity in the residential jumbo mortgage market... Jumbo Mortgage Activity Increasing