We dump $180 billion into AIG, $400 into FNM & FRE, we monetize $200 billion in GSE debt, we monetize $500 billion (so far) in GSE securities, we monetize $200 billion in treasuries (so far), we dump $90 billion into C & BAC beyond the $50 billion in initial TARP money, we backstop money market funds, we dump $50 billion into auto companies, we crash interest rates to zero, the FDIC backstops bank debt, we embark on $1.85 trillion in deficit spending, etc........
All to bailout a corrupt and spoiled banking system. And now we will get to hear that wall streeters are now "earning" huge bonuses again - TARP free!
"As for yourself, (continued the King), who have spent the greatest Part
of your Life in Travelling, I am well disposed to hope you may hitherto
have escaped many Vices of your Country. But by what I have gathered from
your own Relation, and the Answers I have with much Pain wringed and
extorted from you, I cannot but conclude the Bulk of your Natives to be
the most pernicious Race of little odious Vermin that Nature ever
suffered to crawl upon the Surface of the Earth."
Jonathan Swift, Gulliver's Travels (Part II: A Voyage to Brobdingnag),
1726.
Few Americans admit that their culture encourages deception and fraud.
It's not just the banking system, it's endemic to many other industries.
The Chinese (and the world, really) were foolish to accept our paper at face value.
Doesn't anyone realize that this news is pretty f*cking convenient? When banks needed to recapitalize a few months ago, equities markets accommodated by climbing 40% based on nothing more than green shoots propaganda and threats of QE? Now that the government needs to finance a large amount of new debt issues, it's hinted that perhaps share prices are over-valued (stress tests may have to be re-performed) and maybe, just maybe it's time to seek safety back in fixed income -Treasuries to be exact?
How does a fisherman (politician) land big game (society) on light tackle (limited resources [Fed, UST] vs global markets)? By applying the most amount of pressure, most consistently, to the fish (taxpayers/investors). Keep the fish (taxpayers/investors) off-balance, using each piece of its equipment (Fed, UST, PPT, SRM [state run media]) to the limits of its ability.
Clue in; who's wining in this market? FA, TA, quants? None of the above? This is a fight for the ages - the government is playing for keeps, because if this played out according to normal economic rules & logic, guess who ceases to exist?
I'm going for a walk in the Bretton Woods and see if I can't make some sense of things by divorcing myself from what passes as reality, as opposed to the honest reality surrounding me in the forest for the trees.
All to bailout a corrupt and spoiled banking system. And now we will get to hear that wall streeters are now "earning" huge bonuses again - TARP free!
The sham is bigger than ever.
"The [International Monetary] [F]und estimates that in the United States, for example, banks reported $510 billion in write-downs by the end of 2008 and face an additional $550 billion in 2009 and 2010." International Monetary Fund - The New York Times
Dum Luk...If you listen to the banks, you'd be expecting write-UPS of a similar amount. I continue to be confounded by the disconnect between the government's estimates and those of the IMF and Roubini. Somebody is wrong, and I certainly have my suspicions.
Thanks for the response last night Sportsfan. Got it this morning. I should clarify my view that the banks WERE clearly insolvent. With the trillions of dollars our government has shoveled everywhere, including the fed funds that are unaccounted for, it is currently impossible to know. I'm still betting on failure/insolvency.
30 yr. fixed rates keep going up - wonder how much this will impact the mini-resurgence in home sales lately (in my area anyway). The 8K rebate may still keep some sales going, but with rates going up, things should start slowing down again.
A friend's home got foreclosed on about 8 months ago. They paid (zero down) $340k in 2004, went to the HELOC well repeatedly and were in it around $650k when they had to vamoose the premises...
It went up for auction on the county steps a month ago for $316k, and then a few weeks ago @ $304k-with no interested bidders.
Next week it goes up for bids starting @ $153k. Another friend is interested in buying it, but is out of town and asked me to be his proxy.
The price seems downright reasonable @ $153k, I wonder what the competition will be like?
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 7:35 am
Snerf, Isn't that their job? To keep the economy from crashing?
Well, there's two issues at play: political & financial. As to the political question, what justifies these actions? Exigent circumstances; national security? Regardless of the political rationale, the financial aspect demonstrates just how hard it is to abandon cherished principles like fundamental analysis, TA or math (quant). Ironic, no, that it's not really that complicated - all one needs to understand is the political motivation & support. That's where you should put your money: on the government favored horse (fascism).
ot-
buy now or be priced out forever
I thought Wall street looked out 6-12 months...24 months is the new 6 mos...
news ticker
10:57aFBR upgrades oil drillers on 2011 profit prospects
Angry Saver, took the words right of my mouth. The ten banks have no profits. They are declaring the money they received from AIG thru the backdoor as profits, the same taxpayer money that Bernanke gave AIG. This is change you cannot believe in, no transparency here, no indictments for financial fraud, and lobbyists still paying the politicians at their fundraisers including those of Obama.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:05 am
"Just wait until someone applies cynicism to your strategy of cynicism.
Then the fireworks start."
Does this become an endless regress, or an endless spiral?
It just generates endless layers of deception, because each referent is to a contingent truth, which itself may or may not be true. When the root is a lie there is no other way to proceed. I am too lazy to keep track of the possible alternatives and the combinations generated by them so I prefer the truth in every case when I think I can get away with it.
1) Make ridiculous bets that large Blue Chip companies will fail
2) Engineer the failure of those corporations via derrivatives, shorts, and ostracism
3) Get taxpayer to pay off the bet
My daddy had a shot glass, fifties vintage, hand painted with a Veronica Lake type wa-wa girl, intoning (cartoon like intoning): "it's later than you think!".
"June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Inventories at U.S. wholesalers fell in April for the eighth straight month as distributors tried to cut excess supply apace with decreasing sales. The 1.4 percent decline in stockpiles was larger than forecast and followed a revised 1.8 percent decrease in March that was larger than previously estimated..." Inventories at U.S. Wholesalers Fall for Eighth Month (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
It just generates endless layers of deception, because each referent is to a contingent truth, which itself may or may not be true. When the root is a lie there is no other way to proceed. I am too lazy to keep track of the possible alternatives and the combinations generated by them so I prefer the truth in every case when I think I can get away with it.
Watching the way words and concepts have been used by gov't and finance to control the situation, I understand how the idea of "magic" came about. Words are powerful, and if you say them over and over -- and get enough people to believe in them -- they can become real. The dissenter can be transformed into an evil outcast, a slacking dullard can be transformed into a magnificent leader -- at least in the world of magic, which is the human mind. And you can even get your victim to believe he is what you named him. Call a kid "stupid" often enough, for example, and he'll become "stupid" in every functional way.
The only problem, of course, is that this form of magic doesn't prevent snow from falling, levees from cracking, money from running out, barbarians from invading. Reality ensues and the old magic cracks open and fails.
What we have right now is the magicians of gov't and finance shaking the rattles and chanting the incantations and flinging the chicken guts for all they're worth to maintain the magic. But when the dam breaks anyway, the magicians will flee and the people will look around for .... I guess, new magicians. Whose spells are more aligned with reality.
Taggart: I got it! I got it!
Hedley Lamarr: You do?
Taggart: We'll work up a Number 6 on 'em.
Hedley Lamarr: [frowns] "Number 6"? I'm afraid I'm not familiar with that one.
Taggart: Well, that's where we go a-ridin' into town, a-whompin' and a-whumpin' every livin' thing that moves within an inch of its life. Except the women folks, of course.
Hedley Lamarr: You spare the women?
Taggart: Naw, we rape the shit out of them at the Number Six Dance later on.
Hedley Lamarr: Marvelous!
Safe as bonds? If you bought the 10yr issued 3 weeks ago at par yielding 3.125% then today your 100-0 is worth 94-06. Of course you could do worse. Take California (please!). CUSIP #13062RGD4 4.620% coupon 20yr are currently priced at 86.23 after only 5 weeks.
Bob Dobbs (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:35 am
What we have right now is the magicians of gov't and finance shaking the rattles and chanting the incantations and flinging the chicken guts for all they're worth to maintain the magic. But when the dam breaks anyway, the magicians will flee and the people will look around for .... I guess, new magicians. Whose spells are more aligned with reality.
The situation is even more fucked up than that. Look at the operating procedure of a stage magician. He begins with singsong patter that introduces the trick he's about to perform, telling you the "official story". He uses various mechanical contrivances which are not what they appear to be from the standpoint of the audience to accomplish his "magic". He misdirects your attention from himself through the cooperation of his eye-catching assistants whose sole purpose is to arrest your attention while he performs the actual sleight of hand, if only for a split second. Your attention is brought back to the magician at the conclusion of the feat, and this creates the illusion of continuity. Then, soon enough, it's time for the magician's patter to begin again, letting you know he is about to perform his next trick. You want to believe it is real, even when you know you're being fooled.
"Words are powerful, and if you say them over and over ........ -- they can become real."
A perfect example 30-minutes ago. The Mrs. asked me again to "NOT throw away her favorite electric skillet". I answered, "I hear ya', Babe". Afterwhich, I asked her what she thought my answer meant? She stated it was an agreement that I would not throw the damned scratched skillet in the trash. I explained to her, "NO, the answer I gave had NONE of those beliefs built-in, I just answered that I had HEARD you."
.......MOST people believe what they want to hear from a particular thought, sentence, or statement - regardless of what was ACTUALLY said.
The Fed and Treasury have been more successful than I would have thought in saving the banks and the underlying corporate structure. The citizenry...maybe not so much.
Rick Santelli is having another "moment." He's screaming that the yield curve and dollar are flashing on the Fed's dashboard. He makes the analogy that the check engine idiot light doesn't tell you exactly what's wrong just that you need to stop doing whatever it is you are doing and fix it before the engine blows up. It doesn't say -when- the engine will blow up but that you won't get another warning before it is too late.
There may be a lot of magical thinking going on about the markets, but I doubt you'd be successful betting against the herd right now. It looks like the rally is being programmed to continue, no matter what the underlying economic numbers might be. No point in complaining-- it is what it is.
About 20 years ago a friend and his gal were getting amorous en route driving out to Palm Springs in his Corvette, and the gear shifter got cocked around...
I was thinking more shamans than stage magicians. But there's a great story about Blackstone the Magician and the "final trick" he played on a theater audience. He told them he needed their absolute cooperation; they should all get up in an orderly fashion and assemble outside on the street to see the trick across the street from the theater. When they'd done so, they asked Blackstone when the trick would begin. He told them to turn around: they did, and saw that theater was burning down.
Blackstone used his control over the audience and their focus -- the control they'd given up to him -- to save them all. But someone else could use the same control mechanisms to keep them in the theater until it was too late. I won't point out the parallels.
Bob Dobbs (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:54 am
"Prestidigitation Nation "
I was thinking more shamans than stage magicians.
Shamanism may actually work, by some as-yet-undiscovered means. Stage magic, on the other hand, exploits known laws and the discrepancy of knowledge between the magician and audience to create the appearance the magician wants to create through conventional means and seemingly-rational explanations. Plus every audience member has the sneaking suspicion that they are being fooled, they just don't understand how and some prefer to keep that sense of mystery and will be very upset to learn they are simply being manipulated.
Its like we foreclosed the banks, taxpayers ate the loss and then sold it back to the management for a penny.....for them to start the whole thing over. In some ways I hope it all collapses after they pay back as its clear they can't give them another bite at the cherry......yeah right
Interesting Times, my business is down just like everyone else's; it's a question of demand. There's plenty of rats out there, in fact, supply is growing, but they're in government protection programs.
Take a name asswipe (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 9:10 am
both sides of the "new bull market" versus "bear rally" question:
When volume is down 30-40% it is not a new bull market
Shhhh. You'll scare the moths away from the flame.
une 9 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the economic outlook “looks bad” for most of the world and central banks will refrain from raising interest rates.
“Rate hikes will be some time in coming,” Andrew Balls, a managing director for the company in London, wrote in a report on the company’s Web site.
Signs of recovery in economies around the globe point to a slower pace of decline rather than recovery, Balls wrote. The outlook over the next three to five years is for “weaker global growth and especially weaker growth in the developed countries,” he said.
Pimco’s view echoes those of the Wall Street firms that trade directly with the Federal Reserve, who say bets on higher interest rates will turn out to be wrong. Fifteen of the 16 so- called primary dealers surveyed by Bloomberg News said they don’t expect the central bank to raise the target rate for overnight loans between banks this year.
Two-year yields, among the most sensitive to the Fed’s interest-rate policies, climbed 44 basis points over the past two days as traders added to bets that the Fed will increase borrowing costs. The surge was the steepest in eight months.
"Brazil's economy officially has entered into a recession, after its gross domestic product fell 0.8 percent in first quarter, the government announced Tuesday"
"Slovenia officially entered a recession in the first quarter of this year, official data showed Tuesday.
Slovenia's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 6.4 percent compared to the last quarter of 2008, the Slovenian Statistics office said in a statement"
.
"The Romanian economy shrank 4.6 percent in first quarter 2009 compared with the previous three months, official data showed on Tuesday, confirming that the country had entered a recession. Romanian gross domestic product contracted 3.4 percent in the final quarter of 2008"
Juvenal Delinquent says, "I'm going for a walk in the Bretton Woods and see if I can't make some sense of things by divorcing myself from what passes as reality, as opposed to the honest reality surrounding me in the forest for the trees."
the internet is a giant mirror that records every funny or frightened face, get outside and away from the mirror that never sleeps and never forgets.
n the basis of asset allocation, there was a large and, some would say, irrational move into Treasury notes back in summer and fall that continued through the first quarter. Money managers had bet on declining rates and got exactly that. Remember as rates drop bonds go up in price, and vice versa.
Pigged !
Running Stress Tests again detects major chunks of the Big Shitpile still embedded in American banking system.
The financial engineering racket is simply the best organized white collar crime organization ever !
Piggy-backed book recommendation)
The Good Soldier Švejk is an ultra-marathon of satire one page after another...
Do you want to kill the pig that laid the golden egg?
maybe we should refer to it as "porked"
The $68 billion in TARP repayments is a joke.
We dump $180 billion into AIG, $400 into FNM & FRE, we monetize $200 billion in GSE debt, we monetize $500 billion (so far) in GSE securities, we monetize $200 billion in treasuries (so far), we dump $90 billion into C & BAC beyond the $50 billion in initial TARP money, we backstop money market funds, we dump $50 billion into auto companies, we crash interest rates to zero, the FDIC backstops bank debt, we embark on $1.85 trillion in deficit spending, etc........
All to bailout a corrupt and spoiled banking system. And now we will get to hear that wall streeters are now "earning" huge bonuses again - TARP free!
The sham is bigger than ever.
"The Good Soldier Švejk is an ultra-marathon of satire one page after another..."
JD, I love that book.
Holy Mackerel, look at those tiny Read Herrings the maim stream media has thrown our way...
"As for yourself, (continued the King), who have spent the greatest Part
of your Life in Travelling, I am well disposed to hope you may hitherto
have escaped many Vices of your Country. But by what I have gathered from
your own Relation, and the Answers I have with much Pain wringed and
extorted from you, I cannot but conclude the Bulk of your Natives to be
the most pernicious Race of little odious Vermin that Nature ever
suffered to crawl upon the Surface of the Earth."
Jonathan Swift, Gulliver's Travels (Part II: A Voyage to Brobdingnag),
1726.
The sham is bigger than ever."
Few Americans admit that their culture encourages deception and fraud.
It's not just the banking system, it's endemic to many other industries.
The Chinese (and the world, really) were foolish to accept our paper at face value.
Doesn't anyone realize that this news is pretty f*cking convenient? When banks needed to recapitalize a few months ago, equities markets accommodated by climbing 40% based on nothing more than green shoots propaganda and threats of QE? Now that the government needs to finance a large amount of new debt issues, it's hinted that perhaps share prices are over-valued (stress tests may have to be re-performed) and maybe, just maybe it's time to seek safety back in fixed income -Treasuries to be exact?
How does a fisherman (politician) land big game (society) on light tackle (limited resources [Fed, UST] vs global markets)? By applying the most amount of pressure, most consistently, to the fish (taxpayers/investors). Keep the fish (taxpayers/investors) off-balance, using each piece of its equipment (Fed, UST, PPT, SRM [state run media]) to the limits of its ability.
Clue in; who's wining in this market? FA, TA, quants? None of the above? This is a fight for the ages - the government is playing for keeps, because if this played out according to normal economic rules & logic, guess who ceases to exist?
Yay!! TARP has returned a profit!! Might be enough to cover GM and Chrysler II along with Ford I in the next two years.
OT, OT, OT
Juvenal, Rabelais, Swift, Twain, Hašek, Heller, etc. "
Don't forget Gogol.
Heller's "God Knows" is one of the handful of books I've read twice. Don't miss out.
I'm going for a walk in the Bretton Woods and see if I can't make some sense of things by divorcing myself from what passes as reality, as opposed to the honest reality surrounding me in the forest for the trees.
Ever come across Milorad Pavic's "Dictionary of the Khazars"? Orig. in Serbo-Croatian.
All to bailout a corrupt and spoiled banking system. And now we will get to hear that wall streeters are now "earning" huge bonuses again - TARP free!
The sham is bigger than ever.
"The [International Monetary] [F]und estimates that in the United States, for example, banks reported $510 billion in write-downs by the end of 2008 and face an additional $550 billion in 2009 and 2010."
International Monetary Fund - The New York Times
Snerf,
Isn't that their job? To keep the economy from crashing?
gmgmq=the new vegas
Symbol Lookup - MarketWatch
I'm well versed in the Devil's Dictionary by Bierce in original English, but not Pavic's version.
I'll have to check it out.
This must be kept in perspective. Everyone should applaud the banks repaying TARP.
Save your energy for when they ask for it back, and exposing the backdoor bailouts.
Bierce was my father's favorite writer. Mainly short stories but a few novels.
Dum Luk...If you listen to the banks, you'd be expecting write-UPS of a similar amount. I continue to be confounded by the disconnect between the government's estimates and those of the IMF and Roubini. Somebody is wrong, and I certainly have my suspicions.
Thanks for the response last night Sportsfan. Got it this morning. I should clarify my view that the banks WERE clearly insolvent. With the trillions of dollars our government has shoveled everywhere, including the fed funds that are unaccounted for, it is currently impossible to know. I'm still betting on failure/insolvency.
TARP's automotive-industry financing program investments to date are:
Dec. 29, GMAC LLC, $5 billion
Dec. 29, General Motors, $884,024,131
Dec. 31, General Motors, $13.4 billion
Jan. 2., Chrysler Holding, $4 billion
Jan. 16, Chrysler Financial Services, $1.5 billion
Apr. 22, General Motors, $2 billion
Apr. 29, Chrysler Holding, $500 million
Apr. 29, Chrysler Holding, $280,130,642
May 1, Chrysler LLC, $3.043143 billion
May 20, Chrysler LLC, $756.857 million
May 20, General Motors, $4 billion
May 21, GMAC, $7.5 billion
May 27, New CarCo Acquisition, $6.943 billion
May 27, General Motors, $360,624,198
June 3, General Motors, $30.1 billion
OT
'Don't forget Gogol."
Never forget Kafka either!
Prague's Franz Kafka International Named World's Most Alienating Airport | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
30 yr. fixed rates keep going up - wonder how much this will impact the mini-resurgence in home sales lately (in my area anyway). The 8K rebate may still keep some sales going, but with rates going up, things should start slowing down again.
This is great news, the economy has healed. My oil positions continue their rise today on this true sign the recession is over.
Interest rates should start going up as well, to keep the economy from growing too quickly.
/snark off
You can see how ridiculous, but predictable, this whole charade is. Investing with the utmost cynicism has proven to be a good strategy.
A friend's home got foreclosed on about 8 months ago. They paid (zero down) $340k in 2004, went to the HELOC well repeatedly and were in it around $650k when they had to vamoose the premises...
It went up for auction on the county steps a month ago for $316k, and then a few weeks ago @ $304k-with no interested bidders.
Next week it goes up for bids starting @ $153k. Another friend is interested in buying it, but is out of town and asked me to be his proxy.
The price seems downright reasonable @ $153k, I wonder what the competition will be like?
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 7:35 am
Snerf, Isn't that their job? To keep the economy from crashing?
Well, there's two issues at play: political & financial. As to the political question, what justifies these actions? Exigent circumstances; national security? Regardless of the political rationale, the financial aspect demonstrates just how hard it is to abandon cherished principles like fundamental analysis, TA or math (quant). Ironic, no, that it's not really that complicated - all one needs to understand is the political motivation & support. That's where you should put your money: on the government favored horse (fascism).
fiduciary doodie: don't forget GM's financing of Delphi bailout last week.
the utmost cynicism has proven to be a good strategy.
Just wait until someone applies cynicism to your strategy of cynicism.
Then the fireworks start.
10-year yields are doing a little cliff-diving this morning.
BAC and C. That's hilarious.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 7:55 am
the utmost cynicism has proven to be a good strategy.
Just wait until someone applies cynicism to your strategy of cynicism.
Then the fireworks start.
I don't trust your saying this. I suspect you have an ulterior motive and when I find out what it is I'll turn it to my own advantage.
I don't trust your saying this
Your paranoia is admirable but unnecessary as I had anticipated your skepticism and spoken only in good faith.
"Don't forget Gogol."
My handle.
ot-
buy now or be priced out forever
I thought Wall street looked out 6-12 months...24 months is the new 6 mos...
news ticker
10:57aFBR upgrades oil drillers on 2011 profit prospects
"Just wait until someone applies cynicism to your strategy of cynicism.
Then the fireworks start."
Does this become an endless regress, or an endless spiral?
When irony becomes commonplace and commonplace isn't in on the joke, it's a bit ironic.
Angry Saver, took the words right of my mouth. The ten banks have no profits. They are declaring the money they received from AIG thru the backdoor as profits, the same taxpayer money that Bernanke gave AIG. This is change you cannot believe in, no transparency here, no indictments for financial fraud, and lobbyists still paying the politicians at their fundraisers including those of Obama.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:05 am
"Just wait until someone applies cynicism to your strategy of cynicism.
Then the fireworks start."
Does this become an endless regress, or an endless spiral?
It just generates endless layers of deception, because each referent is to a contingent truth, which itself may or may not be true. When the root is a lie there is no other way to proceed. I am too lazy to keep track of the possible alternatives and the combinations generated by them so I prefer the truth in every case when I think I can get away with it.
It looks like Atlas is shrugging off the Boston Globe, another requiem for a heavy wait...
rat catcher -
1) Make ridiculous bets that large Blue Chip companies will fail
2) Engineer the failure of those corporations via derrivatives, shorts, and ostracism
3) Get taxpayer to pay off the bet
Sounds like a flawless plan to me...
thread has gone Vienna 1909..... garsh
It just generates endless layers of deception
it's not deception, it's abstract redirection!
Spaghetti Hoo-cuda-code!
More like Praha June 1914
Interconnected alliances and a sense of honoring said alliances no matter what, brought the guns of August to bear...
Our situation has no choice but to honor interconnected alliances no matter what.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:21 am
it's not deception, it's abstract redirection!
Spaghetti Hoo-cuda-code!
Maybe the continual creation of layers of deception surrounding a bald-faced lie IS the secret of perpetual motion and perpetual growth.
Hoocoodanode?
Thread's gone post-modern. Just as well.
Did AIG give $70 billion of its bailout money to China?
Did AIG give $70 billion of its bailout money to China? | Culpeper Star-Exponent
have nothing to contribute, but am thoroughly enjoying this thread
well at least we dont have to worry about fiat bailing out on chrysler.
Errore 404 - Pagina non trovata - ANSA.it
Praha June 1914
My daddy had a shot glass, fifties vintage, hand painted with a Veronica Lake type wa-wa girl, intoning (cartoon like intoning): "it's later than you think!".
so versitile, so robust.
scone (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:28 am
Thread's gone post-modern. Just as well.
Don't expect a turkey dog here!
"June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Inventories at U.S. wholesalers fell in April for the eighth straight month as distributors tried to cut excess supply apace with decreasing sales. The 1.4 percent decline in stockpiles was larger than forecast and followed a revised 1.8 percent decrease in March that was larger than previously estimated..."
Inventories at U.S. Wholesalers Fall for Eighth Month (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
It just generates endless layers of deception, because each referent is to a contingent truth, which itself may or may not be true. When the root is a lie there is no other way to proceed. I am too lazy to keep track of the possible alternatives and the combinations generated by them so I prefer the truth in every case when I think I can get away with it.
Watching the way words and concepts have been used by gov't and finance to control the situation, I understand how the idea of "magic" came about. Words are powerful, and if you say them over and over -- and get enough people to believe in them -- they can become real. The dissenter can be transformed into an evil outcast, a slacking dullard can be transformed into a magnificent leader -- at least in the world of magic, which is the human mind. And you can even get your victim to believe he is what you named him. Call a kid "stupid" often enough, for example, and he'll become "stupid" in every functional way.
The only problem, of course, is that this form of magic doesn't prevent snow from falling, levees from cracking, money from running out, barbarians from invading. Reality ensues and the old magic cracks open and fails.
What we have right now is the magicians of gov't and finance shaking the rattles and chanting the incantations and flinging the chicken guts for all they're worth to maintain the magic. But when the dam breaks anyway, the magicians will flee and the people will look around for .... I guess, new magicians. Whose spells are more aligned with reality.
Is executive compensation really the main reason banks want to return this money? That says an awful lot about whose interests are being served.
Is executive compensation really the main reason banks want to return this money?
dividends, special capitalization ratios, lending directives, etc.
Taggart: I got it! I got it!
Hedley Lamarr: You do?
Taggart: We'll work up a Number 6 on 'em.
Hedley Lamarr: [frowns] "Number 6"? I'm afraid I'm not familiar with that one.
Taggart: Well, that's where we go a-ridin' into town, a-whompin' and a-whumpin' every livin' thing that moves within an inch of its life. Except the women folks, of course.
Hedley Lamarr: You spare the women?
Taggart: Naw, we rape the shit out of them at the Number Six Dance later on.
Hedley Lamarr: Marvelous!
The banks want to get out from under the angry legislature. Under the overt bailout, it's very hard to argue against regulation.
that was larger than previously estimated..."
My yoga mantra.....
a slacking dullard can be transformed into a magnificent leader --
What happened to the moratorium on political commentary?
Does this refer to California, Texas, the U.S. or North Korea?
Status Quo looks like it can go the full 12 rounds, but never discount the possibility of an unexpected knockout punch from a debt ringer...
Safe as bonds? If you bought the 10yr issued 3 weeks ago at par yielding 3.125% then today your 100-0 is worth 94-06. Of course you could do worse. Take California (please!). CUSIP #13062RGD4 4.620% coupon 20yr are currently priced at 86.23 after only 5 weeks.
"What happened to the moratorium on political commentary?
Does this refer to California, Texas, the U.S. or North Korea? "
I missed the moratorium memo; good luck on enforcing that one. But this can apply to any number of Glorious Leaders out there.
"Marvelous! "
Come what may, I'll be damned if we don't have the culture for it.
Bob Dobbs (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:35 am
What we have right now is the magicians of gov't and finance shaking the rattles and chanting the incantations and flinging the chicken guts for all they're worth to maintain the magic. But when the dam breaks anyway, the magicians will flee and the people will look around for .... I guess, new magicians. Whose spells are more aligned with reality.
The situation is even more fucked up than that. Look at the operating procedure of a stage magician. He begins with singsong patter that introduces the trick he's about to perform, telling you the "official story". He uses various mechanical contrivances which are not what they appear to be from the standpoint of the audience to accomplish his "magic". He misdirects your attention from himself through the cooperation of his eye-catching assistants whose sole purpose is to arrest your attention while he performs the actual sleight of hand, if only for a split second. Your attention is brought back to the magician at the conclusion of the feat, and this creates the illusion of continuity. Then, soon enough, it's time for the magician's patter to begin again, letting you know he is about to perform his next trick. You want to believe it is real, even when you know you're being fooled.
Prestidigitation Nation
"Words are powerful, and if you say them over and over ........ -- they can become real."
A perfect example 30-minutes ago. The Mrs. asked me again to "NOT throw away her favorite electric skillet". I answered, "I hear ya', Babe". Afterwhich, I asked her what she thought my answer meant? She stated it was an agreement that I would not throw the damned scratched skillet in the trash. I explained to her, "NO, the answer I gave had NONE of those beliefs built-in, I just answered that I had HEARD you."
.......MOST people believe what they want to hear from a particular thought, sentence, or statement - regardless of what was ACTUALLY said.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:45 am
Prestidigitation Nation
Very succinct. Did I just describe stage magic, or the public appearance of a Fed governor?
The Fed and Treasury have been more successful than I would have thought in saving the banks and the underlying corporate structure. The citizenry...maybe not so much.
Rick Santelli is having another "moment." He's screaming that the yield curve and dollar are flashing on the Fed's dashboard. He makes the analogy that the check engine idiot light doesn't tell you exactly what's wrong just that you need to stop doing whatever it is you are doing and fix it before the engine blows up. It doesn't say -when- the engine will blow up but that you won't get another warning before it is too late.
The situation is even more fucked up than that.
Damn it, you're right.
The "eye-catching assistants" suck.
Hilarious
Zero Hedge: Can We Get This Guy On CNBC?
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:49 am
Damn it, you're right.
The "eye-catching assistants" suck.
I think it's the beards.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 8:45 am
.......MOST people believe what they want to hear from a particular thought, sentence, or statement - regardless of what was ACTUALLY said.
Dammit BSR. Turn off CSPAN and feed the chickens.
There may be a lot of magical thinking going on about the markets, but I doubt you'd be successful betting against the herd right now. It looks like the rally is being programmed to continue, no matter what the underlying economic numbers might be. No point in complaining-- it is what it is.
"NO, the answer I gave had NONE of those beliefs built-in, I just answered that I had HEARD you."
Skillets can be used for more than frying fish.
BTW, of al the dreadful import-export news I've read this morning, Brazil's seems to be less dreadful than most.
About 20 years ago a friend and his gal were getting amorous en route driving out to Palm Springs in his Corvette, and the gear shifter got cocked around...
Blown Engine
BSR,
My wife says I never listen to her either ..... At least I think that's what she said.
"Prestidigitation Nation "
I was thinking more shamans than stage magicians. But there's a great story about Blackstone the Magician and the "final trick" he played on a theater audience. He told them he needed their absolute cooperation; they should all get up in an orderly fashion and assemble outside on the street to see the trick across the street from the theater. When they'd done so, they asked Blackstone when the trick would begin. He told them to turn around: they did, and saw that theater was burning down.
Blackstone used his control over the audience and their focus -- the control they'd given up to him -- to save them all. But someone else could use the same control mechanisms to keep them in the theater until it was too late. I won't point out the parallels.
I heart the Ignore feature.
I'm getting better at ignoring my wife, and only wish there were some Olympic event for people like me to show off my talent.
Bob Dobbs (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 10:54 am
"Prestidigitation Nation "
I was thinking more shamans than stage magicians.
Shamanism may actually work, by some as-yet-undiscovered means. Stage magic, on the other hand, exploits known laws and the discrepancy of knowledge between the magician and audience to create the appearance the magician wants to create through conventional means and seemingly-rational explanations. Plus every audience member has the sneaking suspicion that they are being fooled, they just don't understand how and some prefer to keep that sense of mystery and will be very upset to learn they are simply being manipulated.
reminds me of the "sometimes ignore" option requested of kcoop.
since that doesn't work like real life, I guess...so Olympic it remains.
Dshort, latest regression analysis with shadowstats. He makes a good argument on both sides of the "new bull market" versus "bear rally" question:
dshort.com: Regression to Trend Update
What are the chances Fiat comes in and liquidates most of chryslers assets?
Its like we foreclosed the banks, taxpayers ate the loss and then sold it back to the management for a penny.....for them to start the whole thing over. In some ways I hope it all collapses after they pay back as its clear they can't give them another bite at the cherry......yeah right
both sides of the "new bull market" versus "bear rally" question:
When volume is down 30-40% it is not a new bull market
Interesting Times, my business is down just like everyone else's; it's a question of demand. There's plenty of rats out there, in fact, supply is growing, but they're in government protection programs.
Take a name asswipe (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/9/2009 - 9:10 am
both sides of the "new bull market" versus "bear rally" question:
When volume is down 30-40% it is not a new bull market
Shhhh. You'll scare the moths away from the flame.
snerf says, "the government is playing for keeps, because if this played out according to normal economic rules & logic, guess who ceases to exist? "
Right, and reality has a funny way of sticking around until there is nobody left to bluff.
10 Little Indian-givers
une 9 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said the economic outlook “looks bad” for most of the world and central banks will refrain from raising interest rates.
“Rate hikes will be some time in coming,” Andrew Balls, a managing director for the company in London, wrote in a report on the company’s Web site.
Signs of recovery in economies around the globe point to a slower pace of decline rather than recovery, Balls wrote. The outlook over the next three to five years is for “weaker global growth and especially weaker growth in the developed countries,” he said.
Pimco’s view echoes those of the Wall Street firms that trade directly with the Federal Reserve, who say bets on higher interest rates will turn out to be wrong. Fifteen of the 16 so- called primary dealers surveyed by Bloomberg News said they don’t expect the central bank to raise the target rate for overnight loans between banks this year.
Two-year yields, among the most sensitive to the Fed’s interest-rate policies, climbed 44 basis points over the past two days as traders added to bets that the Fed will increase borrowing costs. The surge was the steepest in eight months.
Rick Santelli is having another "moment."
What are the odds he calls for a Fed Teabagging?
O/T
"Brazil's economy officially has entered into a recession, after its gross domestic product fell 0.8 percent in first quarter, the government announced Tuesday"
"Slovenia officially entered a recession in the first quarter of this year, official data showed Tuesday.
Slovenia's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 6.4 percent compared to the last quarter of 2008, the Slovenian Statistics office said in a statement"
.
"The Romanian economy shrank 4.6 percent in first quarter 2009 compared with the previous three months, official data showed on Tuesday, confirming that the country had entered a recession. Romanian gross domestic product contracted 3.4 percent in the final quarter of 2008"
Juvenal Delinquent says, "I'm going for a walk in the Bretton Woods and see if I can't make some sense of things by divorcing myself from what passes as reality, as opposed to the honest reality surrounding me in the forest for the trees."
the internet is a giant mirror that records every funny or frightened face, get outside and away from the mirror that never sleeps and never forgets.
n the basis of asset allocation, there was a large and, some would say, irrational move into Treasury notes back in summer and fall that continued through the first quarter. Money managers had bet on declining rates and got exactly that. Remember as rates drop bonds go up in price, and vice versa.
good read, folks interesting finance articles</a
Tax payer equals professional bag holder
my comment on payback via video
YouTube -