June 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Supreme Court stayed the asset sale Chrysler LLC planned to make as soon as 4 p.m. New York time today to a group led by Fiat SpA, said a lawyer for creditors challenging the transaction.
The court was reviewing a decision by a bankruptcy judge and a federal appeals court. It made its decision known before that, said Thomas Lauria, a lawyer for some pension funds who filed the appeal.
this might be a 24 single justice stay and then the rest have to convened by the clerk, if its a multi justice stay they will tell them to start preparing briefs, etc.
Has Krugman written anything critical of the Administration since his dinner at the White House?
Maybe it was the ride in the car there with the men in black, co-opted by the PPT.
Actually outside of him saying the "end may be called" by a totally rigged system, it did not sound very optimistic to me. But then I'm in an bad mood so nothing sounds good right now.
On the stay, it is only a temporary stay, the SCOTUS has not decided to hear the case yet. They may decide in a couple of days to let the sale proceed without a further word.
funny Liz they said TARP was beyond scope of court.... though i bet someone could challange constitutionality of executive branch spending TARP for other than voted intent ie bad assets
Looks like Krugman's become bought and paid for. From here on, users need to understand that he's someone else's bitch now so forget his name when facts are concerned.
Hmmmm... a month or so back he blogged persuasively that this was a "W"-shaped recession, that the slight upturn we were seeing was based almost entirely on the end of inventory draw-downs. Now this.... although you note that it's all very tentative "might," "would not be surprised," and so on.
I don't know if he has been coopted or not; I don't know what Obama could have told him to make him so, short of "We gotta prop up the banks and the stock market or the Arabs have sworn to pull our credit..."
Has any fancy-math economist looked at the structural differences in today's economy vs the '30s.
Throw me a bone here. I'm thinking there must be some study on the multiplier effect of inflation on inventories or such. Didn't some of you go to school for this?
And the Indiana Pensioners hit a late jumper to tie it up again! Double-Overtime!
(The Chrysler Fiats are looking a little winded out there, and the Indiana Pensioners' bench may be deeper than the pundits thought.)
And if I read Krugman correctly, he seems to be saying that while things will continue to get worse, and an extended depression may indeed be upon us, its OK because we'll be recovering our butts off the whole time we continue to slide downhill.
I don't know ... it sounds a little stagindeflationary. I'll need to see some more of those green shoots, Krug-baby, pass some of those around this-a-way.
A W recession or "doubledip" still has a end to the recession. Whining over Krugman when he is still gloomy as ever except for the doomists on this board, is rediculous.
"Looks like Krugman's become bought and paid for. From here on, users need to understand that he's someone else's bitch now so forget his name when facts are concerned."
Everyone's bought and paid for, by somebody at some level. I'll always listen to Krugman. I'll just...keep possible bias in mind.
If I were on the supreme court (HAHAHAHAHA), I would want compelling evidence that there are reasons for the June 15 deadline other than obstruction of judicial review.
Krugman is a Keynesian fool, always was, always will be. He has illusions of grandeur replacing Uncle Ben so he is now "officially" aligned with the Obama propaganda machine.
The dot.CON recession never ended. Want proof? We have fewer private industry jobs today than we did before and after the tech wreck.
The dot.con recession only seemed to end while Americans were impoverishing themselves with debt.
Krugman's solution of adding more debt to an excessive debt problem is goofey. This latest debt binge will be even more ruinous than the last.
The middle class will suffer mightily.
“I would not be surprised if the official end of the U.S. recession ends up being, in retrospect, dated sometime this summer,” he said in a lecture today at the London School of Economics.
I don't know what Obama could have told him to make him so
====
Easy: "Paul, there are always positions to be found for team players. Team players can go places around here. Now, I know I can count on you to be a team player from now on."
"Now, this may continue to be unpleasant for quite some time, even after I turn off the heat. It won't feel 'cool' right away, although the boiling is technically over."
No it isn't. It worked for FDR. But the economy has changed alot since then. There should be scholarly papers about that.
I don't see people arguing that it worked for FDR. Even Krugman argues that World War II shows that it could have worked if they'd only spent more.
By the late 1930s the New Deal was largely considered a failure economically (though intelligent arguments have been made that it was successful socially).
BTW, personally I think attempting to use the outcome of a specific event like WWII (for a specific participant no less) to defend government spending in general is nuts. Wars have bankrupted and destroyed many nations in the past.
Wrong. FDR increased public debt AFTER a credit bust. Krugman is espousing we preserve ponzi debt with public funds - debt on top of debt. Key distinction.
But you only get Nobel prizes and wall street accolades if you distort and/or pass over inCONvenient facts.
dont you believe it (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 1:29 pm
-- Krugman's solution of adding more debt to an excessive debt problem is goofey. --
No it isn't. It worked for FDR.
Great, another world war. Lokk, FDR didn't have a plan that worked. We emerged from depression eventually despite FDR.
-- No one has figured out how to predict human behavior using "fancy math" and ultimately the economy and markets are behavioral phenomena. --
What I'm interested in is way simpler than that. No game theory. Just mixing.
If you've got a production based economy then your outputs can be saved as inventory. That's not true of a service based economy.
Economic stimulus has a greater multiplier effect on the production based economy because of the feedback loop in the inventory, that is missing in the service based economy.
I think the service economy the USA has had is dead. I'd just like a properly qualified mortician to demonstrate why to my naive satisfaction.
-- Krugman's solution of adding more debt to an excessive debt problem is goofey. --
No it isn't. It worked for FDR. But the economy has changed alot since then. There should be scholarly papers about that.
BTW, note the phrase "excessive debt" and recall that by the time FDR took office the Great Contraction had already occured - i.e. the problem of excessive debt may have been solved by the time he took office.
That's why I think it's potentially very dangerous to compare the current situation to 1936 in terms of government spending. The simple fact is that in 1936 we might have had vastly more "fiscal spare capacity" than we do today.
taraxias: Krugman is a Keynesian fool, always was, always will be. He has illusions of grandeur replacing Uncle Ben so he is now "officially" aligned with the Obama propaganda machine.
Bingo! If Obama is still playing Chicago Rules, and why wouldn't he, then that's probably the carrot. Krugman is probably struggling with his integrity and so put the qualifiers on the statement to cover his ass.
Great, another world war. Lokk, FDR didn't have a plan that worked. We emerged from depression eventually despite FDR.
Incorrect. FDR laid the foundation for the post-war boom. People still don't get, they probably never will. The stabilizers found in the New Deal and regulatory overhaul were the key.
If you've got a production based economy then your outputs can be saved as inventory. That's not true of a service based economy.
Well I think a lot of the service aspect of our economy is fictitious. I guess the question is whether the services contribute to physical products that can be saved or physical capacity that represents savings. Alternatively perhaps knowledge, information and skills can roughly be treated as savings.
Eras End: Incorrect. FDR laid the foundation for the post-war boom. People still don't get, they probably never will. The stabilizers found in the New Deal and regulatory overhaul were the key.
The industrial production capabilities of all other nations outside of North America were devastated during WWII. We were the only country that could make stuff, so of course we led the world out of the war. That had more to do with the post-war boom than anything FDR did with the New Deal. Who were we competing with?
Word inside is that BB has earned a place of weary confidence by making the WH moves. Insiders say doubtful he will be removed unless it is right before elections and scapegoat needed.... only then would they consider bringing in PK
What was Krugman's price for becoming a team player all of a sudden? Well, Ben's term at the Fed being up next spring springs to mind. Given his views, Krugman as Fed chair should push the 2/10's spread out to infinity.
Like GM and AIG, Krugman is now a government asset.
Despite free pool and $1.50 beer, there's two guys in this Boise bar. Unlike six weeks ago, I'm the only guy playing pool today.
If they keep saying "Oh no you can't" instead of "Yes we can", what else would you expect? I'm that there inquiries about what needs to change to allow third terms as well. That's how banana republics operate.
"The industrial production capabilities of all other nations outside of North America were devastated during WWII. We were the only country that could make stuff, so of course we led the world out of the war. That had more to do with the post-war boom than anything FDR did with the New Deal. Who were we competing with? "
Wrong. FDR's reforms cut down on the amount of speculation and greed inside the system while moving wealth more down the latter, helping calm the system compared to the 1900-1929 when the FEDS were scared of anti-capitalism due to inequality. That is the problem with people who don't get that our understand the internationalism of capitalism.
You just can't break down people into economic units and succeed. It is why stuff like Marxism and Austrianism is bs. They are lies to support a intellectual, not support a country.
Incorrect. FDR laid the foundation for the post-war boom. People still don't get, they probably never will. The stabilizers found in the New Deal and regulatory overhaul were the key.
Again it's worth remembering that prior to these regulations the US had achieved the highest per capita GDP in the world.
Also the benefits of WWII were so asymmetric in favor of the US I don't think you can reach any valid conclusion about the effects of pre-WWII policy on post-WWII US.
IMO you'd have to look at other countries that had similar policies that didn't benefit in the way the US did from the War.
-- Alternatively perhaps knowledge, information and skills can roughly be treated as savings. --
Unfortunately the marginal cost of information is pretty close to zero these days. I don't really see those things you mentioned as a store of value, in the same way as tons of pig iron for example.
I really think to whole game is Q.E.D. put a fork in it, cooked to perfection ... done. I just like to see a written proof before the summer fires.
Eras End (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 1:43 pm
Great, another world war. Look, FDR didn't have a plan that worked. We emerged from depression eventually despite FDR.
Incorrect. FDR laid the foundation for the post-war boom.
Let me make a wild guess. Please answer honestly. You are less than 40 years old.
It matters. Despite it mattering the problem is that there is no way to confirm. Truth is if you were old enough you'd have never made such a claim.
"My latest book, Animal Kingdom, has been printed this spring in Hong Kong. Arrival date at the Port of Savannah, July 20. "
"Sorry, I don't buy Chinese imports if at all possible."
I guess I'm out one reader. Of course, I'm not Chinese, I didn't write the book in Chinese, and it won't be sold in China unless it's reprinted in China. The Chinese don't get a cut of the sales. They had no editorial input.
My publisher doesn't confide in me about most of her business decisions, but I assume that she got the quality of production she was looking for at the best possible price.
"Again it's worth remembering that prior to these regulations the US had achieved the highest per capita GDP in the world"
Which was going to collapse. That is the point. They would run up these huge bubbles while the people starved, then they blew up. The 30's one was just the biggest.
"Let me make a wild guess. Please answer honestly. You are less than 40 years old.
It matters. Despite it mattering the problem is that there is no way to confirm. Truth is if you were old enough you'd have never made such a claim"
Let me take a wild guess, you are over 40 and think you know everything? Your type A why this country has been going down the tubes. Grow up and act your age.
Eras End (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 1:51 pmr
"The industrial production capabilities of all other nations outside of North America were devastated during WWII. We were the only country that could make stuff, so of course we led the world out of the war. That had more to do with the post-war boom than anything FDR did with the New Deal. Who were we competing with? "
Wrong. FDR's reforms cut down on the amount of speculation and greed inside the system...
Snigger. My apologies. I thought I was engaging with a rational being. Carry on. I'll be showing my children the soapboxers on Boston Commons next week. Will you be there?
Next time check with the various university presses... University of Georgia has a great one, so does UNC and Duke I am sure their are more... but I personally know the award winning books UGA press has put out plus a lot of the folks at these presses do freelance to keep your costs down as well...FWIW
"Again it's worth remembering that prior to these regulations the US had achieved the highest per capita GDP in the world"
Which was going to collapse. That is the point. They would run up these huge bubbles while the people starved, then they blew up. The 30's one was just the biggest.
That always happens though. I don't think you can't attribute violent social convulsions to capitalism simply because they've occurred in so many other types of economic and social configurations.
"But Pavel, you could've told her anywhere but China."
I couldn't. I don't try to interfere in business decisions, only in some editorial ones. That's the proper relationship between author and publisher, unless the author has a stake in the business.
Eras End (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 1:56 pm
reply ignore user
"Let me make a wild guess. Please answer honestly. You are less than 40 years old.
It matters. Despite it mattering the problem is that there is no way to confirm. Truth is if you were old enough you'd have never made such a claim"
Let me take a wild guess, you are over 40 and...
I'll take that as a "yes" and the end of the conversation in my favor.
Suck it up cupcake. You lost this one. Move on. You are so embarrassed you can't even answer honestly.
"Next time check with the various university presses... University of Georgia has a great one, so does UNC and Duke I am sure their are more... but I personally know the award winning books UGA press has put out plus a lot of the folks at these presses do freelance to keep your costs down as well...FWIW"
Thanks, FD. In this case, though, the publisher came looking for me, which is hard to refuse.
It takes a long time for things to sink into the collective psyche, heretofore followed by a collective action. Things like ski high S&P P/E ratios, mass state and local government layoffs, strip mall stores closing everywhere, things like that. The sheeple will react to the input in due time but react they will, it's just that no one knows when critical mass will be reached. I have a pretty good idea when though.
"Let me make a wild guess. Please answer honestly. You are less than 40 years old.
It matters. Despite it mattering the problem is that there is no way to confirm. Truth is if you were old enough you'd have never made such a claim"
Let me take a wild guess, you are over 40 and think you know everything? Your type A why this country has been going down the tubes. Grow up and act your age.
If you're interested in answers to these questions with genuine scientific merit I would look into Mancur Olson's work.
He has some pretty good economically agnostic explanations as to why "countries go down the tubes".
"That always happens though. I don't think you can't attribute violent social convulsions to capitalism simply because they've occurred in so many other types of economic and social configurations"
ac my man, you are double speaking. Yes, capitalism has those "problems" but it was the size that was the problem while even in the "good" times, wealth was to concentrated into to few hands which made it worse and poverty almost unbearable. With the industrialized US, it meant outright starvation. FDR brought in the modern government to deal with a industrialized economy. It is why Jefferson never wanted one in the first place and Jefferson dabbled in Socialism.
You really need to read the Hoover papers on the GD. Very reveiling on how men like him and such were "lost in the past".
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Advanta Corp., which provides credit cards to small businesses, is cutting off almost a million customers after today instead of June 10 as loan defaults surge.
“We are closing all of our customer accounts to future purchases,” Advanta spokeswoman Amy Holderer said in an e-mail.
Guess if you know you are going to get cut off, you rack it up and have no intention of paying it either - I'm surprised Advanta didn't know this would happen. I remember when GTE relocated its IT from Thousand Oaks ( Los Angeles) to Tampa - mannn, the looting that went on ! Then, there are the banks of course...
Christina Romer actually believes what turned the tide was gold fleeing pre-war Europe into the US.
Unfortunately for her thesis, we have really good data on central bank gold holdings. I pointed out to some econo-dude that if every flake added to central bank holdings had come from Europe between 1934 and 1938, it would've amounted to roughly the increase in M0, which pretty much everyone agrees was insufficient.
Despite free pool and $1.50 beer, there's two guys in this Boise bar. Unlike six weeks ago, I'm the only guy playing pool today.
Wish a place around here would do that, of course when I can home brew better beer than I can buy for around 50 cents a pint, with no worries about DUI's due to over indulgence it needs to be fun too.
Lately going out is more like pulling teeth than fun.
The price of living in a capitalistic republic is more uncertainty, risk, and volatility. It is founded on the belief that this type of government/economic system leads the fairest and best outcomes.
Krugman and his ilk want a command and CONtrol eCONomy. The results since 1970 have been stunning so far. Keep up the good work "Brownie".
"It is why Jefferson never wanted one in the first place and Jefferson dabbled in Socialism."
A bit of an anachronism, no?
Anyway, when I read phrases like this:
"countries go down the tubes".
I get a queasy feeling, because I love this country and I don't want to see it go down the tubes. I really do get emotional about it, not cold and analytical. And you don't have to love the DNC or the RNC to love it.
Seems the secured creditors were gonna get only 29 cents on the dollar. But the Indiana pension fund bought at 43 cents on the dollar. So really they are getting back around 70 cents on the dollar, which isn't that bad.
Unless they really meant 29 cents on what they paid. Hard to tell.
So, as assuming the former, if somehow, the money fairy caused 100% of the face value to be repaid, would the
pensioners feel obligated to hand some money back to the people who sold to them,
on the grounds that they'd made an obscene profit and obscene profits are bad?
"How could some people who are purportedly so "smart" and well paid, be wrong so many times, and still be
1) respected
2) listened to
3) employed ?"
Because clever isn't the same as intelligent, and intelligent isn't the same as effective. With an economy this massive, who has access to all the controls, or even knows how to find them?
skk (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 2:06 pm
I remember when GTE relocated its IT from Thousand Oaks ( Los Angeles) to Tampa - mannn, the looting that went on ! Then, there are the banks of course... -K
And much of that space in T.O. was taken up by Countrywide.
interesting times wrote:
How could some people who are purportedly so "smart" and well paid, be wrong so many times, and still be
1) respected
2) listened to
3) employed ?
It is irksome. I can't think of another profession that allows their leaders to be clearly and consistently and completely wrong without consequences.
In 2007 & 2008, it took $6 of new debt to produce $1 of new GDP. Currently we are adding debt, yet GDP is shrinking.
Krugman proposes inflation and massive increases in public debt. Ponzi debt that will never be repaid. Exactly where is such tomfoolery authorized under our CONstitution
Inflation is theft. Thou shall not steal. I can live with taxes, but not outright theft.
-- Seems the secured creditors were gonna get only 29 cents on the dollar. But the Indiana pension fund bought at 43 cents on the dollar. So really they are getting back around 70 cents on the dollar, which isn't that bad. --
"Exactly where is such tomfoolery authorized under our CONstitution"
Where does it not? Capitalism is by its nature theft, capitalists by their nature, reject the rule of law, yet the economic puritans on this site, just dismiss this because they are holy angels.
"That always happens though. I don't think you can't attribute violent social convulsions to capitalism simply because they've occurred in so many other types of economic and social configurations"
ac my man, you are double speaking. Yes, capitalism has those "problems" but it was the size that was the problem while even in the "good" times, wealth was to concentrated into to few hands which made it worse and poverty almost unbearable. With the industrialized US, it meant outright starvation. FDR brought in the modern government to deal with a industrialized economy. It is why Jefferson never wanted one in the first place and Jefferson dabbled in Socialism.
You really need to read the Hoover papers on the GD. Very reveiling on how men like him and such were "lost in the past".
Well I've argued myself there are "social benefits" to "modern government" but that doesn't necessarily translate into economic benefits as so many economists seem to take for granted. I think the problem is when "modern government" gets to a point where it's inefficiencies make it toxic to the economy and negate and social benefits through economic harm. What's even more of a concern to me though is that it seems that historically "modern government" is frequently just a front for dictatorship that has no interest in really helping people.
When a small group of rich people steal from a large group of poor people we like to call that "capitalism".
When a large group of poor people steal from a small group of rich people we like to call that "socialism".
Of course both are forms of tyranny. Real socialism would never involve any kind of involuntary wealth redistribution. That fact that what is frequently labeled "socialism" is in practice accompanied by strong central authorities essentially illustrates that real socialism is not the intent nor not possible given human nature.
In fact none of these systems address the more fundamental issue of morality and the intention of individuals or authorities to act for the social good.
interesting times wrote:
How could some people who are purportedly so "smart" and well paid, be wrong so many times, and still be
1) respected
2) listened to
3) employed ?
~~~~
They work for TPTB ...
The elites will never give up control willingly ...
They've infiltrated every aspect of government, finance, academia and industry ...
Truthtellers and whistleblowers are summarily dispatched to ignominy ...
Angry Saver: "In 2007 & 2008, it took $6 of new debt to produce $1 of new GDP. Currently we are adding debt, yet GDP is shrinking. "
Exactly. I like to use the private enterprise analogy: If it used to take 3x debt/equity to generate $1 of earnings, and now it takes 9x debt/equity to generate $1 of earnings, is that really a business with improving fundamentals?
Broad money supply + nominal GDP is all you need to look at to understand this mess.
That was a tou=ngue in cheek statement on sotomoyors statement about being latino woman and coming to ""superior "" judgements in her opinions and rulings..of course she fails to mention she has never been an old white man either and therefore can not judge on their experience either...
If American's want socialism let them vote for it. At least the French are somewhat intellectually honest. We have crony capitalism - socialized losses, private profits.
Anyway, when I read phrases like this:
"countries go down the tubes".
I get a queasy feeling, because I love this country and I don't want to see it go down the tubes. I really do get emotional about it, not cold and analytical. And you don't have to love the DNC or the RNC to love it.
Many (not all or even most) of the "tubers" aren't cold and analytical, either. They're millenialists, like Christians who expect God to arrive at the Millenium and Take Care of Business Once and For All. And then all the sinners will be really sorry, and virtuous people will be rewarded. For a given value of virtue.
Economic millenialists just can't wait for society to fall apart so they can be justified in their opinions; and of course they'll be all right in the ensuing panic and come out on top because they were economically virtuous.
Of course such beliefs, like any emotionally-held beliefs, tend to put blinders on a person's thought processes. New data gets interpreted in ways that reinforce belief. And of course, in this world, the intentionally virtuous are rarely rewarded; because virtue is such a hard thing to define; and the definition changes.
"judgements in her opinions and rulings..of course she fails to mention she has never been an old white man either and therefore can not judge on their experience either..."
Poly-logism is cool because I say it is. ANd my logic is better than yours, and you can't prove otherwise...
Ok, Basel so for every 43 cents they invested, they are getting 29 cents back, not including
dividends they got. It's not great, but it's not awful either.
10 cents on the dollar is often what you get in bk.
"When a small group of rich people steal from a large group of poor people we like to call that "capitalism".
When a large group of poor people steal from a small group of rich people we like to call that "socialism".'
Yeah, but in the socialist system I saw a small group of relatively privileged people, for that society, stole from a large group of much poorer people. I find that many people here have no concept of how poor were the poor of the SU. And if they had tried to steal back from the privileged, except individually, they would have been annihilated. But in many ways it was a society that lived by theft. Like the joke about the guy who stole an automobile, part by part, from the factory he worked in.
liz. the indiana funds' argument is that, under the absolute priority rule, they (as secured creditors) are to be paid in full, before unsecured creditors (e.g. UAW fund) receive a single penny.
yes almost all property at one time or another 300-400 years ago were Kings grants... i know a few (3) families that still have and live on kings grants in GA and SC..granted they are not anywhere close to what they were even around the civil war time as well, gave a lot of land to slave families, later nature conservancies... govt taxes kill them... but doubt 5% of personal properrty is now still old kings grant
ac, socialism is egalitarism. Literally. Jefferson dabbled in dividing up land for the serfs so they could then be 'subsistance" farmers like he dreamed.
Socialism is cooperation and sharing. Irrational and against nature much like "free markets" are.
I am a true conservative. I believe in nature and its heirarchal foundations. Market liberalism and socialism are enlightment ideas against nature.
It wasn't to the US started some REAL economic conservatism during the FDR run that the country really began pump out the goods. Without FDR's reforms, America would have never reached the ability to control the world. The economy would have blown up again and again and again. Even the stagflation era was easy compared to the original systems busts.
Then the country started to outsource its production and push "free trade" by the economic liberals so the capitalists could get a "better deal". It was a fraud on all levels and treason among the capitalists.
Yet, people whine about the government stepping in to save its auto industry which was really destroyed by these creatures of illumanation. Once again, America has it backwords.
So they'd get the 43 cents they invested, plus the rest of the face value of the claim, to make 100%. Isn't that a profit of 57 cents? Or, more than 100%?
"Wasn't a goodly percentage of stuff in the Soviet Union sold on the black mkt?"
Liz, it's a question that makes my skin creep. Bad things happened when the SU broke up. I don't even want to refer to them on an open forum like this.
Really, you know, someone told Anna Politkovskaya before she was assassinated "This is a country where people are shot and killed for a thousand dollar debt." A word to the wise, but she died anyway.
Not that I support the process, but that $6 debt growth for every dollar of GDP was private debt. If you account for both public and private debt, the public is only making up for/assuming some of the debt being destroyed. We're adding the same way we were adding with that $6 figure.
The way I see it capitalism is just defined by the specific ownership of property. I don't see how that is necessarily good or evil. Socialism, on the other hand, does seem to fundamentally founded on the idea of morality, but as far as I can tell it presupposes that morality as opposed to offering a viable means to achieve it. So in my opinion socialism isn't much more valuable than other nice ideas like magical egg-wielding bunny rabbits, unless you come up with an effective way to alter human nature and make us perfectly moral.
In practice I think what you need is capitalism within a functioning moral framework.
Again, the problem becomes one of morality, not so much economics - we should know that already since we're having a credit crisis, not a resource crisis.
Of course the problem of morality is the fundamental problem of societies, and not one that we've solved. Though we've had partial solutions that have been effective to some extent.
they'd get the 43 cents they invested, plus the rest of the face value of the claim, to make 100%
it's irrelevant what they would actually get. they could get the full amount; they could get nothing. the issue is whether the uaw health fund is entitled to receive anything until the secured creditors are paid.
You remind me of my father. He was born during WW@ and lived through the Greek civil war. His hatred of totalitarianism (specially communism) and his love of democracy is truly awesome. Having seen the worst, though, he is profoundly optimistic, more so than myself, unfortunately.
To all who care: There is a very good book by Amity Shales called the Forgotten Man about the Great Depression. It focuses on those who did not benefit from FDR's programs, like small business owners. Good reading, and it will challenge your assumptions.
I had a situation years ago, involving a Russian. The Russian had put up his house for a bail bond. The guy he bonded out fled overseas and was killed in Tashkent. I got a copy of
the death certif. Unfortunately, he didn't realize that the guy being dead was not useful. Hauling his tushy back here would have gotten him some of the forefitted bond back.
Do I know for sure he was murdered? Nope. But I know what I think.
I was addressing equities and the pathos issues. Not what the law is.
If they are set to double their money, instead of coming out even, the "poor pensioners" are gaming the system to appear super pathetic, instead of admitting that what they want is
a fat profit.
Amity Shales called the Forgotten Man about the Great Depression. It focuses on those who did not benefit from FDR's programs, like small business owners. Good reading, and it will challenge your assumptions.
Shales is a market liberal. Small Business owners struggled because the economy sucked. When it recovered, they flourished.
yes, your math is correct, but i think that even if the UAW were shut out, the best the pensioners could do would be to break even. not much value in chrysler.
The Russians I have known have been good-natured fun loving people (who drank a lot). There were stories. One was an older medical resident who in Russia was kidnapped once to take care of a shot mobster. Which he did and was released to go on his way.
Yeah, that and the NRA set prices and created a lot of onerous regulations. If you were a private power company, the government created and subsidized companies to compete with you (sorta like AIG and GMAC). How about you read the book first and then shoot your mouth off. I am no free market zealot, but I gave the book a chance regardless. It was challenged some of my beliefs, which is kinda a good thing.
"Yeah, that and the NRA set prices and created a lot of onerous regulations. If you were a private power company, the government created and subsidized companies to compete with you (sorta like AIG and GMAC). How about you read the book first and then shoot your mouth off. I am no free market zealot, but I gave the book a chance regardless. It was challenged some of my beliefs, which is kinda a good thing."
and I am a challenge to Shales beliefs. Why read what I already know?
More than 40 years ago, I attended a going away party for a Russian grad student who was going
back home after getting his degree. Russian vodka. I took a tiny sip of the stuff he was knocking back by the shot glass, and felt like I was gonna die.
Four deputies stop a motorist who ends up dead.
Nobody admits anything.
Who is guilty?
Who is innocent?
This is the true moral dilemma because it describes, in a simple form, the problem of out-of-control government. Is Geithner guilty? Is Bernanke? The lawyers like Kashkari who follow orders? The law clerks who write up the documents? The police officers and courts which enforce the laws? The tax collectors who collect the bailout money?
I've pondered it for many years.
There's really no way to separate the guilty from the innocent, only to assign degrees of assumed guilt. Unless you're part of the process, you can't know the true decision-making process.
As a baby boomer, I grew up with the possibility of nuclear destruction! Now, we can not survive without our IPHONE or our GPS?
Grow up America, life has always been on the edge of destruction...Others have always attempted to destroy our political and economic system since this Republic was formed...
You are lying to yourself and others have lied to you that if you trust us, you will be safe...
Its all one big delusion...., no none knows the future and know one can be totally safe, which the current and past administrations have offered in exchange for your rights and freedoms...And this is coming from a liberal!!!
In the great depression, small business owners had a pretty fluid definition. My dad told me his best paying job as a kid was doing deliveries for the neighborhood bootlegger. And his mom, my grandmother, took most of his earnings to buy chickens, which she kept in the garage, selling both eggs and chickens to the neighbors. He also had to deliver those. This was in a nice, middle class neighborhood. And I doubt they reported a nickle to the government.
Who cares about double digits unemployment as long as Goldman, Bank of Amerika, Google, Rimm, and Apple are making record profits. Employment is waaaay overrated. Who needs jobs as long as the stock market keeps going up? Lets just keep buying stocks. As long as the new world order can solidly thier power and the middle class dissolves, all will be well. yay I love jobless recoveries and 4 dollar gas.
After early writings critical of handling of the economy, the cult of our "Dear Leader" has made it clear that he better get on board. Plus you cannot get the invites to be one of pals of our Dear Leader unless you get "most favored toady" status.
This fall about October or November we will all have a big economic surprise, and Dear Leader/Pee Wee Herman will be "I meant to do that!"
Chrysler Asset Deal Stayed by U.S. Supreme Court, Lawyer Says
Chrysler Asset Deal Stayed by U.S. Supreme Court, Lawyer Says - Bloomberg.com
By Patrick Oster
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Supreme Court stayed the asset sale Chrysler LLC planned to make as soon as 4 p.m. New York time today to a group led by Fiat SpA, said a lawyer for creditors challenging the transaction.
The court was reviewing a decision by a bankruptcy judge and a federal appeals court. It made its decision known before that, said Thomas Lauria, a lawyer for some pension funds who filed the appeal.
Do they serve roast beef at the lectures?
(repost)
Has Krugman written anything critical of the Administration since his dinner at the White House?
I feel so much better hearing this from Krugman. I knew the whole problem was that I'm too stupid to understand the green shoots/economic recovery.
Krugman: Recession May End this Summer
===
They left of the rest of his sentence, which was "... and monkeys may emerge from my anus"
Ok, what did Krugman say that was so bullish and pro-Obama? Sounds like everything still sucks as the economy only grows 1-1.5%. Bleh.
Chrysler Asset Deal Stayed by U.S. Supreme Court, Lawyer Says
====
oh man, this sucker's going down
wow , if they dont interupt this june schedule then the SCOTUS wont hear the case until Oct 09....
Eras End--
No, no, no! Krugman won the Nobel prize, so he must not be talking out of his a$$. Shorts will be crushed and left bleeding from every orifice.
Well, we should start to see retail sales and consumer spending turn around shortly then.
Has a recession ever ended with consumer spending still declining?
Or will an official "end" to the recession simply be declared for its psychological and political impact?
this might be a 24 single justice stay and then the rest have to convened by the clerk, if its a multi justice stay they will tell them to start preparing briefs, etc.
Wow, just wow.
Exciting.
So if I worked in a Chrysler plant would I keep buying rabbits to sell for their meat or buying twinkies for my lunchpail?
No, no, no! Krugman won the Nobel prize, so he must not be talking out of his a$$. Shorts will be crushed and left bleeding from every orifice.
Haha... I assume you're joking but it's worth reminding people that the architect of the whole LTCM debacle had a Nobel prize in economics too.
Judge them for the results they produce...
fd-its looks like a single, if gleaming at the content from Scotus site
Nemo -
Has Krugman written anything critical of the Administration since his dinner at the White House?
Maybe it was the ride in the car there with the men in black, co-opted by the PPT.
Actually outside of him saying the "end may be called" by a totally rigged system, it did not sound very optimistic to me. But then I'm in an bad mood so nothing sounds good right now.
U.S. Stocks Erase Losses After Krugman Predicts Recession’s End
Didn't he say that the stimulus wasn't big enough?
I'll say it again ...
What about state and local government ?
49 out of 50 states have budget woes ...
There are going to be cuts in every state in the union ... massive in some ...
The Japanese scenario will only work temporarily ...
Longer term trade deficits will sink the ship ...
You know, I really think a wise Latina with the richness of her experiences would have made a better decision than this older white woman.
ac--
Yes, joking. Must remember my /snark tag.
Krugman used the "D" word. Forbidden.
On the stay, it is only a temporary stay, the SCOTUS has not decided to hear the case yet. They may decide in a couple of days to let the sale proceed without a further word.
funny Liz they said TARP was beyond scope of court.... though i bet someone could challange constitutionality of executive branch spending TARP for other than voted intent ie bad assets
Nemo -
Has Krugman written anything critical of the Administration since his dinner at the White House?
Three was that whole "Obama is Wrong" Newsweek cover not too long ago.
repost
Interesting Times
"Krugman's comments are not gonig to solve the massive debt bubble anytime soon...."
~~~
Exactly ...
And changing accounting rules doesn't generate cash, just paper profits ...
How long before they run out of rules to change ...?
Looks like Krugman's become bought and paid for. From here on, users need to understand that he's someone else's bitch now so forget his name when facts are concerned.
Hmmmm... a month or so back he blogged persuasively that this was a "W"-shaped recession, that the slight upturn we were seeing was based almost entirely on the end of inventory draw-downs. Now this.... although you note that it's all very tentative "might," "would not be surprised," and so on.
I don't know if he has been coopted or not; I don't know what Obama could have told him to make him so, short of "We gotta prop up the banks and the stock market or the Arabs have sworn to pull our credit..."
Has any fancy-math economist looked at the structural differences in today's economy vs the '30s.
Throw me a bone here. I'm thinking there must be some study on the multiplier effect of inflation on inventories or such. Didn't some of you go to school for this?
Has Krugman written anything critical of the Administration since his dinner at the White House?
Not that I've seen.
I wonder what his price was.
"Krugman: Recession May End this Summer" -CR
“I would not be surprised if the official end of the U.S. recession ends up being, in retrospect, dated sometime this summer,” - PK
Sorry to disagree Bill. Those two things do not say the same thing.
for the record I expect the same thing. As early as April, as late as June.
This declaration buys them an additional 6 quarters of uncertainty agitprop opportunity.
And the Indiana Pensioners hit a late jumper to tie it up again! Double-Overtime!
(The Chrysler Fiats are looking a little winded out there, and the Indiana Pensioners' bench may be deeper than the pundits thought.)
And if I read Krugman correctly, he seems to be saying that while things will continue to get worse, and an extended depression may indeed be upon us, its OK because we'll be recovering our butts off the whole time we continue to slide downhill.
I don't know ... it sounds a little stagindeflationary. I'll need to see some more of those green shoots, Krug-baby, pass some of those around this-a-way.
mmckinl wrote:
How long before they run out of rules to change ...?
There is only one rule. Bankers do what they want, everyone else pays. The particulars get shifted around now and again.
A W recession or "doubledip" still has a end to the recession. Whining over Krugman when he is still gloomy as ever except for the doomists on this board, is rediculous.
ioniancat21
Krugman always goes back into the fold after he raises a little ruckus ...
Classic black sheep leadership ... to the slaughter ...
"Looks like Krugman's become bought and paid for. From here on, users need to understand that he's someone else's bitch now so forget his name when facts are concerned."
Everyone's bought and paid for, by somebody at some level. I'll always listen to Krugman. I'll just...keep possible bias in mind.
creditcriminals,
Well lets see if the rest of the gang says yea... does it take a majority or all justices+
Maybe the man dosen't really have a clue. yet, he has to say something so he throws in the qualifiers....
Yes, my feeling also. It must be me.
lol.
Ford Tells Lawmakers Rival GMAC Gets Cost Advantage
In recent competing bond offerings, Ford paid $107.5 million more than GMAC for every $1 billion it borrowed, Bloomberg data show.
Nemo,
LOL yeah , old jewish women have no experience to pull from....
Comrade Coinz -
There is only one rule. Bankers do what they want, everyone else pays. The particulars get shifted around now and again.
I thought the rule always was "Those with the gold, makes the rules".
Or at least that's the golden rule I know.
If I were on the supreme court (HAHAHAHAHA), I would want compelling evidence that there are reasons for the June 15 deadline other than obstruction of judicial review.
Krugman is a Keynesian fool, always was, always will be. He has illusions of grandeur replacing Uncle Ben so he is now "officially" aligned with the Obama propaganda machine.
Comrade Coinz
mmckinl wrote:
How long before they run out of rules to change ...?
There is only one rule. Bankers do what they want, everyone else pays. The particulars get shifted around now and again.
~~~
Investors and other countries have a vote ... Let's see where the long bonds go ...
Thanks for the laugh and it's so true.
I think Krugman underestimates the Power of the Dark Side, uh, reality.
--bh
The dot.CON recession never ended. Want proof? We have fewer private industry jobs today than we did before and after the tech wreck.
The dot.con recession only seemed to end while Americans were impoverishing themselves with debt.
Krugman's solution of adding more debt to an excessive debt problem is goofey. This latest debt binge will be even more ruinous than the last.
The middle class will suffer mightily.
The ponzi debt reflations must end!
Has any fancy-math economist looked at the structural differences in today's economy vs the '30s.
No one has figured out how to predict human behavior using "fancy math" and ultimately the economy and markets are behavioral phenomena.
Credit, in particular, is simply a paper contract that acts as a proxy for the trust between humans and human enterprise.
Good luck finding an equation for trust.
It is the end of the "recession" all right..
“I would not be surprised if the official end of the U.S. recession ends up being, in retrospect, dated sometime this summer,” he said in a lecture today at the London School of Economics.
I don't know what Obama could have told him to make him so
====
Easy: "Paul, there are always positions to be found for team players. Team players can go places around here. Now, I know I can count on you to be a team player from now on."
-- Krugman's solution of adding more debt to an excessive debt problem is goofey. --
No it isn't. It worked for FDR. But the economy has changed alot since then. There should be scholarly papers about that.
Just remember, Krugman never would have won the Nobel Prize if he wasn't a "Team Player".
Overheard:
Said to a frog in a boiling pot --
"Now, this may continue to be unpleasant for quite some time, even after I turn off the heat. It won't feel 'cool' right away, although the boiling is technically over."
No it isn't. It worked for FDR. But the economy has changed alot since then. There should be scholarly papers about that.
I don't see people arguing that it worked for FDR. Even Krugman argues that World War II shows that it could have worked if they'd only spent more.
By the late 1930s the New Deal was largely considered a failure economically (though intelligent arguments have been made that it was successful socially).
BTW, personally I think attempting to use the outcome of a specific event like WWII (for a specific participant no less) to defend government spending in general is nuts. Wars have bankrupted and destroyed many nations in the past.
No it isn't. It worked for FDRl
Wrong. FDR increased public debt AFTER a credit bust. Krugman is espousing we preserve ponzi debt with public funds - debt on top of debt. Key distinction.
But you only get Nobel prizes and wall street accolades if you distort and/or pass over inCONvenient facts.
ac,
Here's the math: Long term Credit growth = 1.06^^(n), always >0.
That's all you need to know.
dont you believe it (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 1:29 pm
-- Krugman's solution of adding more debt to an excessive debt problem is goofey. --
No it isn't. It worked for FDR.
Great, another world war. Lokk, FDR didn't have a plan that worked. We emerged from depression eventually despite FDR.
Good News...We have stopped the bleeding...BAD News...Patient is OUT of blood.
-- No one has figured out how to predict human behavior using "fancy math" and ultimately the economy and markets are behavioral phenomena. --
What I'm interested in is way simpler than that. No game theory. Just mixing.
If you've got a production based economy then your outputs can be saved as inventory. That's not true of a service based economy.
Economic stimulus has a greater multiplier effect on the production based economy because of the feedback loop in the inventory, that is missing in the service based economy.
I think the service economy the USA has had is dead. I'd just like a properly qualified mortician to demonstrate why to my naive satisfaction.
-- Krugman's solution of adding more debt to an excessive debt problem is goofey. --
No it isn't. It worked for FDR. But the economy has changed alot since then. There should be scholarly papers about that.
BTW, note the phrase "excessive debt" and recall that by the time FDR took office the Great Contraction had already occured - i.e. the problem of excessive debt may have been solved by the time he took office.
That's why I think it's potentially very dangerous to compare the current situation to 1936 in terms of government spending. The simple fact is that in 1936 we might have had vastly more "fiscal spare capacity" than we do today.
taraxias: Krugman is a Keynesian fool, always was, always will be. He has illusions of grandeur replacing Uncle Ben so he is now "officially" aligned with the Obama propaganda machine.
Bingo! If Obama is still playing Chicago Rules, and why wouldn't he, then that's probably the carrot. Krugman is probably struggling with his integrity and so put the qualifiers on the statement to cover his ass.
Bring on the "Greenbacks" ...
Time to relieve the banksters of their monopoly
of the creation of currency and credit ...
ask yourself ....
Why should we borrow our own money ? .
"We have probably adverted a "Great Depression"...only to have plunged directly into an even "GREATER DEPRESSION".
Krugman wants to be Fed chief after Buurnanke is laid off.
Great, another world war. Lokk, FDR didn't have a plan that worked. We emerged from depression eventually despite FDR.
Incorrect. FDR laid the foundation for the post-war boom. People still don't get, they probably never will. The stabilizers found in the New Deal and regulatory overhaul were the key.
Shipping:
My latest book, Animal Kingdom, has been printed this spring in Hong Kong. Arrival date at the Port of Savannah, July 20.
"I think the service economy the USA has had is dead."
~~~
Not dead ... just permanently downsized by over 50% ...
They have screwed the pooch ...
Shadow Banking can't be resurrected ... no one trusts it ...
Then there are those hundreds of trillions of derivatives
that could turn into a cloud of locusts ...
And when does Krugman think the second dip of the double dip recession will begin, immediately thereafter?
If you've got a production based economy then your outputs can be saved as inventory. That's not true of a service based economy.
Well I think a lot of the service aspect of our economy is fictitious. I guess the question is whether the services contribute to physical products that can be saved or physical capacity that represents savings. Alternatively perhaps knowledge, information and skills can roughly be treated as savings.
It's an interesting question...
Eras End: Incorrect. FDR laid the foundation for the post-war boom. People still don't get, they probably never will. The stabilizers found in the New Deal and regulatory overhaul were the key.
The industrial production capabilities of all other nations outside of North America were devastated during WWII. We were the only country that could make stuff, so of course we led the world out of the war. That had more to do with the post-war boom than anything FDR did with the New Deal. Who were we competing with?
REBear,
Word inside is that BB has earned a place of weary confidence by making the WH moves. Insiders say doubtful he will be removed unless it is right before elections and scapegoat needed.... only then would they consider bringing in PK
Coming this fall on Fox:
That 30s Show
I wonder if Obama will have to pack the Court.
"Wars have bankrupted and destroyed many nations in the past."
Win or lose, war is the acid that dissolves societies.
"My latest book, Animal Kingdom, has been printed this spring in Hong Kong. Arrival date at the Port of Savannah, July 20. "
Sorry, I don't buy Chinese imports if at all possible.
What was Krugman's price for becoming a team player all of a sudden? Well, Ben's term at the Fed being up next spring springs to mind. Given his views, Krugman as Fed chair should push the 2/10's spread out to infinity.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 4:44 pm reply Ignore user Shipping:
So thats means an uptick in dry goods shipping...how many copiews, err boats can we expect...
Like GM and AIG, Krugman is now a government asset.
Despite free pool and $1.50 beer, there's two guys in this Boise bar. Unlike six weeks ago, I'm the only guy playing pool today.
Larry Summers is often mentioned as the next Fed chief. Talk about adding fireworks to the Fed meetings.
ice,
i think summers was and he thinks he is,,,but BB is more in step with memebers of the WH and the WH economic team
"I wonder if Obama will have to pack the Court."
If they keep saying "Oh no you can't" instead of "Yes we can", what else would you expect? I'm that there inquiries about what needs to change to allow third terms as well. That's how banana republics operate.
Broward...$1.50 beer is another notch in deflation argument
"The industrial production capabilities of all other nations outside of North America were devastated during WWII. We were the only country that could make stuff, so of course we led the world out of the war. That had more to do with the post-war boom than anything FDR did with the New Deal. Who were we competing with? "
Wrong. FDR's reforms cut down on the amount of speculation and greed inside the system while moving wealth more down the latter, helping calm the system compared to the 1900-1929 when the FEDS were scared of anti-capitalism due to inequality. That is the problem with people who don't get that our understand the internationalism of capitalism.
You just can't break down people into economic units and succeed. It is why stuff like Marxism and Austrianism is bs. They are lies to support a intellectual, not support a country.
Yep ... we are headed for the Japanese scenario ...
Two nukes and firebomb Tokyo ...
The banksters still will not surrender ...
Incorrect. FDR laid the foundation for the post-war boom. People still don't get, they probably never will. The stabilizers found in the New Deal and regulatory overhaul were the key.
Again it's worth remembering that prior to these regulations the US had achieved the highest per capita GDP in the world.
Also the benefits of WWII were so asymmetric in favor of the US I don't think you can reach any valid conclusion about the effects of pre-WWII policy on post-WWII US.
IMO you'd have to look at other countries that had similar policies that didn't benefit in the way the US did from the War.
-- Alternatively perhaps knowledge, information and skills can roughly be treated as savings. --
Unfortunately the marginal cost of information is pretty close to zero these days. I don't really see those things you mentioned as a store of value, in the same way as tons of pig iron for example.
I really think to whole game is Q.E.D. put a fork in it, cooked to perfection ... done. I just like to see a written proof before the summer fires.
Eras End (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 1:43 pm
Great, another world war. Look, FDR didn't have a plan that worked. We emerged from depression eventually despite FDR.
Incorrect. FDR laid the foundation for the post-war boom.
Let me make a wild guess. Please answer honestly. You are less than 40 years old.
It matters. Despite it mattering the problem is that there is no way to confirm. Truth is if you were old enough you'd have never made such a claim.
"My latest book, Animal Kingdom, has been printed this spring in Hong Kong. Arrival date at the Port of Savannah, July 20. "
"Sorry, I don't buy Chinese imports if at all possible."
I guess I'm out one reader. Of course, I'm not Chinese, I didn't write the book in Chinese, and it won't be sold in China unless it's reprinted in China. The Chinese don't get a cut of the sales. They had no editorial input.
My publisher doesn't confide in me about most of her business decisions, but I assume that she got the quality of production she was looking for at the best possible price.
"Again it's worth remembering that prior to these regulations the US had achieved the highest per capita GDP in the world"
Which was going to collapse. That is the point. They would run up these huge bubbles while the people starved, then they blew up. The 30's one was just the biggest.
AC,
all is well provided you win the war.... i still want repayment for the Marshall plan...
"So thats means an uptick in dry goods shipping...how many copiews, err boats can we expect..."
FD, that's why they were working on a new aircraft carrier.
But Pavel, you could've told her anywhere but China.
FYI,
They need onloy 4 more justices to sign on to hear the Chrysler case... that has to come before the 24 hours as I understand it
"Let me make a wild guess. Please answer honestly. You are less than 40 years old.
It matters. Despite it mattering the problem is that there is no way to confirm. Truth is if you were old enough you'd have never made such a claim"
Let me take a wild guess, you are over 40 and think you know everything? Your type A why this country has been going down the tubes. Grow up and act your age.
Eras End (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 1:51 pmr
"The industrial production capabilities of all other nations outside of North America were devastated during WWII. We were the only country that could make stuff, so of course we led the world out of the war. That had more to do with the post-war boom than anything FDR did with the New Deal. Who were we competing with? "
Wrong. FDR's reforms cut down on the amount of speculation and greed inside the system...
Snigger. My apologies. I thought I was engaging with a rational being. Carry on. I'll be showing my children the soapboxers on Boston Commons next week. Will you be there?
pavel,
Next time check with the various university presses... University of Georgia has a great one, so does UNC and Duke I am sure their are more... but I personally know the award winning books UGA press has put out plus a lot of the folks at these presses do freelance to keep your costs down as well...FWIW
"Again it's worth remembering that prior to these regulations the US had achieved the highest per capita GDP in the world"
Which was going to collapse. That is the point. They would run up these huge bubbles while the people starved, then they blew up. The 30's one was just the biggest.
That always happens though. I don't think you can't attribute violent social convulsions to capitalism simply because they've occurred in so many other types of economic and social configurations.
"But Pavel, you could've told her anywhere but China."
I couldn't. I don't try to interfere in business decisions, only in some editorial ones. That's the proper relationship between author and publisher, unless the author has a stake in the business.
Eras End (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 1:56 pm
reply ignore user
"Let me make a wild guess. Please answer honestly. You are less than 40 years old.
It matters. Despite it mattering the problem is that there is no way to confirm. Truth is if you were old enough you'd have never made such a claim"
Let me take a wild guess, you are over 40 and...
I'll take that as a "yes" and the end of the conversation in my favor.
Suck it up cupcake. You lost this one. Move on. You are so embarrassed you can't even answer honestly.
"Next time check with the various university presses... University of Georgia has a great one, so does UNC and Duke I am sure their are more... but I personally know the award winning books UGA press has put out plus a lot of the folks at these presses do freelance to keep your costs down as well...FWIW"
Thanks, FD. In this case, though, the publisher came looking for me, which is hard to refuse.
It takes a long time for things to sink into the collective psyche, heretofore followed by a collective action. Things like ski high S&P P/E ratios, mass state and local government layoffs, strip mall stores closing everywhere, things like that. The sheeple will react to the input in due time but react they will, it's just that no one knows when critical mass will be reached. I have a pretty good idea when though.
Krugman :
“Things seem to be getting worse more slowly. There’s some reason to think that we’re stabilizing.”
~~~~
Wile E. Coyote moment #2 ...
"Let me make a wild guess. Please answer honestly. You are less than 40 years old.
It matters. Despite it mattering the problem is that there is no way to confirm. Truth is if you were old enough you'd have never made such a claim"
Let me take a wild guess, you are over 40 and think you know everything? Your type A why this country has been going down the tubes. Grow up and act your age.
If you're interested in answers to these questions with genuine scientific merit I would look into Mancur Olson's work.
He has some pretty good economically agnostic explanations as to why "countries go down the tubes".
"That always happens though. I don't think you can't attribute violent social convulsions to capitalism simply because they've occurred in so many other types of economic and social configurations"
ac my man, you are double speaking. Yes, capitalism has those "problems" but it was the size that was the problem while even in the "good" times, wealth was to concentrated into to few hands which made it worse and poverty almost unbearable. With the industrialized US, it meant outright starvation. FDR brought in the modern government to deal with a industrialized economy. It is why Jefferson never wanted one in the first place and Jefferson dabbled in Socialism.
You really need to read the Hoover papers on the GD. Very reveiling on how men like him and such were "lost in the past".
pavel,
congrats..cant blame you for that
"Wile E. Coyote moment #2 ... "
That would be where he manages to grab on to the anvil as they plummet together.
Stability indeed.
How could some people who are purportedly so "smart" and well paid, be wrong so many times, and still be
1) respected
2) listened to
3) employed ?
Rob Dawg .......... Eras End
You are both correct ...
FDR laid the groundwork ...
The devastation of all other industrial countries
left us the only producer ...
Before the War we were not the only producer ...
Those other producers were all producing armaments ...
May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Advanta Corp., which provides credit cards to small businesses, is cutting off almost a million customers after today instead of June 10 as loan defaults surge.
“We are closing all of our customer accounts to future purchases,” Advanta spokeswoman Amy Holderer said in an e-mail.
Advanta Terminates Offer, Will Miss Liquidity Target (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Guess if you know you are going to get cut off, you rack it up and have no intention of paying it either - I'm surprised Advanta didn't know this would happen. I remember when GTE relocated its IT from Thousand Oaks ( Los Angeles) to Tampa - mannn, the looting that went on ! Then, there are the banks of course...
-K
No it isn't. It worked for FDRl
Did you know?
Christina Romer actually believes what turned the tide was gold fleeing pre-war Europe into the US.
Unfortunately for her thesis, we have really good data on central bank gold holdings. I pointed out to some econo-dude that if every flake added to central bank holdings had come from Europe between 1934 and 1938, it would've amounted to roughly the increase in M0, which pretty much everyone agrees was insufficient.
broward -
Despite free pool and $1.50 beer, there's two guys in this Boise bar. Unlike six weeks ago, I'm the only guy playing pool today.
Wish a place around here would do that, of course when I can home brew better beer than I can buy for around 50 cents a pint, with no worries about DUI's due to over indulgence it needs to be fun too.
Lately going out is more like pulling teeth than fun.
The price of living in a capitalistic republic is more uncertainty, risk, and volatility. It is founded on the belief that this type of government/economic system leads the fairest and best outcomes.
Krugman and his ilk want a command and CONtrol eCONomy. The results since 1970 have been stunning so far. Keep up the good work "Brownie".
"It is why Jefferson never wanted one in the first place and Jefferson dabbled in Socialism."
A bit of an anachronism, no?
Anyway, when I read phrases like this:
"countries go down the tubes".
I get a queasy feeling, because I love this country and I don't want to see it go down the tubes. I really do get emotional about it, not cold and analytical. And you don't have to love the DNC or the RNC to love it.
Despite ... $1.50 beer, there's two guys in this Boise bar.
Don't give the bears anything to drink. In a joke, I heard that can work out badly.
SKK,
Thanks for the update on Advanta
I see a lot of that going on now, just like this guy is doing.
YouTube - I'M BACK
Just read MSN money on the Chrysler stay.
Seems the secured creditors were gonna get only 29 cents on the dollar. But the Indiana pension fund bought at 43 cents on the dollar. So really they are getting back around 70 cents on the dollar, which isn't that bad.
Unless they really meant 29 cents on what they paid. Hard to tell.
So, as assuming the former, if somehow, the money fairy caused 100% of the face value to be repaid, would the
pensioners feel obligated to hand some money back to the people who sold to them,
on the grounds that they'd made an obscene profit and obscene profits are bad?
Who among us would not consider Woody Guthrie to be a great historian of the GD.
That was then, this is now.
Sadly, there seems to be a complete vacuum.
Maybe vacuums are the next bubble?
Official end of the U.S. recession sometime this summer
World economy to stay depressed for an extended period
The patient seems to be getting better
Although he'll be dead for a couple of years
No surprise Ginsburg issued stay, as I explained over the weekend. She does not take calls from Rattner.
I still predict they will overturn Gonzalez's order.
"How could some people who are purportedly so "smart" and well paid, be wrong so many times, and still be
1) respected
2) listened to
3) employed ?"
Because clever isn't the same as intelligent, and intelligent isn't the same as effective. With an economy this massive, who has access to all the controls, or even knows how to find them?
skk (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 2:06 pm
I remember when GTE relocated its IT from Thousand Oaks ( Los Angeles) to Tampa - mannn, the looting that went on ! Then, there are the banks of course... -K
And much of that space in T.O. was taken up by Countrywide.
interesting times wrote:
How could some people who are purportedly so "smart" and well paid, be wrong so many times, and still be
1) respected
2) listened to
3) employed ?
It is irksome. I can't think of another profession that allows their leaders to be clearly and consistently and completely wrong without consequences.
In 2007 & 2008, it took $6 of new debt to produce $1 of new GDP. Currently we are adding debt, yet GDP is shrinking.
Krugman proposes inflation and massive increases in public debt. Ponzi debt that will never be repaid. Exactly where is such tomfoolery authorized under our CONstitution
Inflation is theft. Thou shall not steal. I can live with taxes, but not outright theft.
-- Seems the secured creditors were gonna get only 29 cents on the dollar. But the Indiana pension fund bought at 43 cents on the dollar. So really they are getting back around 70 cents on the dollar, which isn't that bad. --
Isn't that just a lowballed hypothetical?
"Exactly where is such tomfoolery authorized under our CONstitution"
Where does it not? Capitalism is by its nature theft, capitalists by their nature, reject the rule of law, yet the economic puritans on this site, just dismiss this because they are holy angels.
This board needs to grow up and fast.
"You know, I really think a wise Latina with the richness of her experiences would have made a better decision than this older white woman."
Which would have been what? Just asking.
"That always happens though. I don't think you can't attribute violent social convulsions to capitalism simply because they've occurred in so many other types of economic and social configurations"
ac my man, you are double speaking. Yes, capitalism has those "problems" but it was the size that was the problem while even in the "good" times, wealth was to concentrated into to few hands which made it worse and poverty almost unbearable. With the industrialized US, it meant outright starvation. FDR brought in the modern government to deal with a industrialized economy. It is why Jefferson never wanted one in the first place and Jefferson dabbled in Socialism.
You really need to read the Hoover papers on the GD. Very reveiling on how men like him and such were "lost in the past".
Well I've argued myself there are "social benefits" to "modern government" but that doesn't necessarily translate into economic benefits as so many economists seem to take for granted. I think the problem is when "modern government" gets to a point where it's inefficiencies make it toxic to the economy and negate and social benefits through economic harm. What's even more of a concern to me though is that it seems that historically "modern government" is frequently just a front for dictatorship that has no interest in really helping people.
When a small group of rich people steal from a large group of poor people we like to call that "capitalism".
When a large group of poor people steal from a small group of rich people we like to call that "socialism".
Of course both are forms of tyranny. Real socialism would never involve any kind of involuntary wealth redistribution. That fact that what is frequently labeled "socialism" is in practice accompanied by strong central authorities essentially illustrates that real socialism is not the intent nor not possible given human nature.
In fact none of these systems address the more fundamental issue of morality and the intention of individuals or authorities to act for the social good.
I think this is where the real crisis lies...
eras end ,
my friend, i believe with that statement you lost any argumentative credibility dealing with absolutes...'All capitalism is evil..'
is there not a world bank conference somewhere where you can go throw bricks through small business owners windows?
Pavel are you issuing a digital edition, on Kindle , e.g.?
Era's End,
You make interesting points.
Property rights. Those are so over rated.
interesting times wrote:
How could some people who are purportedly so "smart" and well paid, be wrong so many times, and still be
1) respected
2) listened to
3) employed ?
~~~~
They work for TPTB ...
The elites will never give up control willingly ...
They've infiltrated every aspect of government, finance, academia and industry ...
Truthtellers and whistleblowers are summarily dispatched to ignominy ...
I dunno. I said I read it on MSN.
So I'm not sure that it's 29 cents on 48 or 29 cents on 100.
Readers are not expected to be numerate.
Angry Saver: "In 2007 & 2008, it took $6 of new debt to produce $1 of new GDP. Currently we are adding debt, yet GDP is shrinking. "
Exactly. I like to use the private enterprise analogy: If it used to take 3x debt/equity to generate $1 of earnings, and now it takes 9x debt/equity to generate $1 of earnings, is that really a business with improving fundamentals?
Broad money supply + nominal GDP is all you need to look at to understand this mess.
"Capitalism is by its nature theft"
Eras End, you are quite the character...I think you might be the very first to make my ignore list.
Pavel,
That was a tou=ngue in cheek statement on sotomoyors statement about being latino woman and coming to ""superior "" judgements in her opinions and rulings..of course she fails to mention she has never been an old white man either and therefore can not judge on their experience either...
it's 29% of the value of the claim.
Era's End,
If American's want socialism let them vote for it. At least the French are somewhat intellectually honest. We have crony capitalism - socialized losses, private profits.
Most individual real property in the US traces its title to the King of England, who merely "declared" it, then granted it.
That's not capitalism.
Anyway, when I read phrases like this:
"countries go down the tubes".
I get a queasy feeling, because I love this country and I don't want to see it go down the tubes. I really do get emotional about it, not cold and analytical. And you don't have to love the DNC or the RNC to love it.
Many (not all or even most) of the "tubers" aren't cold and analytical, either. They're millenialists, like Christians who expect God to arrive at the Millenium and Take Care of Business Once and For All. And then all the sinners will be really sorry, and virtuous people will be rewarded. For a given value of virtue.
Economic millenialists just can't wait for society to fall apart so they can be justified in their opinions; and of course they'll be all right in the ensuing panic and come out on top because they were economically virtuous.
Of course such beliefs, like any emotionally-held beliefs, tend to put blinders on a person's thought processes. New data gets interpreted in ways that reinforce belief. And of course, in this world, the intentionally virtuous are rarely rewarded; because virtue is such a hard thing to define; and the definition changes.
my friend, i believe with that statement you lost any argumentative credibility dealing with absolutes...'All capitalism is evil..'
I like to argue that socialism is a "good" economic system and capitalism is an "evil" economic system.
Since we human beings are evil capitalism is what ironically leads to the greatest aggregate good.
If you're living among thieves you're going to have a very sorry life if you pretend you're not.
I say this all jokingly of course. But only a little bit jokingly.
"judgements in her opinions and rulings..of course she fails to mention she has never been an old white man either and therefore can not judge on their experience either..."
Poly-logism is cool because I say it is. ANd my logic is better than yours, and you can't prove otherwise...
Ok, Basel so for every 43 cents they invested, they are getting 29 cents back, not including
dividends they got. It's not great, but it's not awful either.
10 cents on the dollar is often what you get in bk.
Angry Saver
"In 2007 & 2008, it took $6 of new debt to produce $1 of new GDP. Currently we are adding debt, yet GDP is shrinking."
~~~~
Telling isn't it ...?
There's still $50 trillion of debt out there ...
Yet the economy is shrinking ...
" What can't go on forever , won't "
Seriously, though, I'm gonna have to dig around for my post re: Freddy Kruger and his about face to come if Obumble won the election....
Political tool....
"When a small group of rich people steal from a large group of poor people we like to call that "capitalism".
When a large group of poor people steal from a small group of rich people we like to call that "socialism".'
Yeah, but in the socialist system I saw a small group of relatively privileged people, for that society, stole from a large group of much poorer people. I find that many people here have no concept of how poor were the poor of the SU. And if they had tried to steal back from the privileged, except individually, they would have been annihilated. But in many ways it was a society that lived by theft. Like the joke about the guy who stole an automobile, part by part, from the factory he worked in.
-- I dunno. I said I read it on MSN. --
ZeroHeadge has been covering the Chrysler BK in some detail.
Anybody else read Walter Chrysler's Autobiography, "Life of an American Workman"? I read it when I was a kid. Inspiring.
i love you comrade Misean!
"Pavel are you issuing a digital edition, on Kindle , e.g.?"
No sir, and it's not something I could do on my own, but I can mention it to my publisher. Thanks.
liz. the indiana funds' argument is that, under the absolute priority rule, they (as secured creditors) are to be paid in full, before unsecured creditors (e.g. UAW fund) receive a single penny.
Wasn't a goodly percentage of stuff in the Soviet Union sold on the black mkt?
The movie Watchmen should be renamed Builderbergs. The worlds wealthy elite think and act just like the Watchmen in the movie.
Most individual real property in the US traces its title to the King of England, who merely "declared" it, then granted it.
That's not capitalism.
~~~~
No, that is colonialism ...
But usually those granted claims were "developed" by chartered companies ...
Using fractional reserve banking as leverage ...
yogi,
yes almost all property at one time or another 300-400 years ago were Kings grants... i know a few (3) families that still have and live on kings grants in GA and SC..granted they are not anywhere close to what they were even around the civil war time as well, gave a lot of land to slave families, later nature conservancies... govt taxes kill them... but doubt 5% of personal properrty is now still old kings grant
ac, socialism is egalitarism. Literally. Jefferson dabbled in dividing up land for the serfs so they could then be 'subsistance" farmers like he dreamed.
Socialism is cooperation and sharing. Irrational and against nature much like "free markets" are.
I am a true conservative. I believe in nature and its heirarchal foundations. Market liberalism and socialism are enlightment ideas against nature.
It wasn't to the US started some REAL economic conservatism during the FDR run that the country really began pump out the goods. Without FDR's reforms, America would have never reached the ability to control the world. The economy would have blown up again and again and again. Even the stagflation era was easy compared to the original systems busts.
Then the country started to outsource its production and push "free trade" by the economic liberals so the capitalists could get a "better deal". It was a fraud on all levels and treason among the capitalists.
Yet, people whine about the government stepping in to save its auto industry which was really destroyed by these creatures of illumanation. Once again, America has it backwords.
So they'd get the 43 cents they invested, plus the rest of the face value of the claim, to make 100%. Isn't that a profit of 57 cents? Or, more than 100%?
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 2:27 pm
reply ignore user
Wasn't a goodly percentage of stuff in the Soviet Union sold on the black mkt?
Liz,
They were just warming up for the new California economy.
"Wasn't a goodly percentage of stuff in the Soviet Union sold on the black mkt?"
Liz, it's a question that makes my skin creep. Bad things happened when the SU broke up. I don't even want to refer to them on an open forum like this.
You mean that the people in charge stole the factories, etc? What else was to be expected?
Really, you know, someone told Anna Politkovskaya before she was assassinated "This is a country where people are shot and killed for a thousand dollar debt." A word to the wise, but she died anyway.
"I don't even want to refer to them on an open forum like this."
I live in Encino. I just smile politely at the Russians, and move along.
"You mean that the people in charge stole the factories, etc?"
That's only part of it.
So am I right or not guys? Are the pensioners trying to double their invested money? (And more?)
I'd really like to know.
End Eras had to go on my ignore list. I just couldn't take it anymore.
Not that I support the process, but that $6 debt growth for every dollar of GDP was private debt. If you account for both public and private debt, the public is only making up for/assuming some of the debt being destroyed. We're adding the same way we were adding with that $6 figure.
"I live in Encino. I just smile politely at the Russians, and move along."
Depends on which ones, but yep.
"Capitalism is by its nature theft"
The way I see it capitalism is just defined by the specific ownership of property. I don't see how that is necessarily good or evil. Socialism, on the other hand, does seem to fundamentally founded on the idea of morality, but as far as I can tell it presupposes that morality as opposed to offering a viable means to achieve it. So in my opinion socialism isn't much more valuable than other nice ideas like magical egg-wielding bunny rabbits, unless you come up with an effective way to alter human nature and make us perfectly moral.
In practice I think what you need is capitalism within a functioning moral framework.
Again, the problem becomes one of morality, not so much economics - we should know that already since we're having a credit crisis, not a resource crisis.
Of course the problem of morality is the fundamental problem of societies, and not one that we've solved. Though we've had partial solutions that have been effective to some extent.
All in all, I'd prefer debtor's prison to being shot!!
Era
I live in a Socialist country, and my experience is different than your supposings..
the more fundamental issue of morality and the intention of individuals or authorities to act for the social good.
Sorting the guilty from the innocent is a dilemma, especially in a "socially integrated society" filled with back-channel conspiracies.
they'd get the 43 cents they invested, plus the rest of the face value of the claim, to make 100%
it's irrelevant what they would actually get. they could get the full amount; they could get nothing. the issue is whether the uaw health fund is entitled to receive anything until the secured creditors are paid.
"Depends on which ones, but yep."
Especially the pretty ones walking next to the very large oafish ones.
no
Pavel:
You remind me of my father. He was born during WW@ and lived through the Greek civil war. His hatred of totalitarianism (specially communism) and his love of democracy is truly awesome. Having seen the worst, though, he is profoundly optimistic, more so than myself, unfortunately.
To all who care: There is a very good book by Amity Shales called the Forgotten Man about the Great Depression. It focuses on those who did not benefit from FDR's programs, like small business owners. Good reading, and it will challenge your assumptions.
Era
I live in a Socialist country, and my experience is different than your supposings..
Unless you are an ant or a bee or a wasp I think maybe you just live in a country that is labeled socialist.
I had a situation years ago, involving a Russian. The Russian had put up his house for a bail bond. The guy he bonded out fled overseas and was killed in Tashkent. I got a copy of
the death certif. Unfortunately, he didn't realize that the guy being dead was not useful. Hauling his tushy back here would have gotten him some of the forefitted bond back.
Do I know for sure he was murdered? Nope. But I know what I think.
ac,
"Unless you are an ant or a bee or a wasp I think maybe you just live in a country that is labeled socialist. "
That and the prior post, doth nail the issue down quite well.
Eras End was an interesting distraction. I'm so glad he's gone.
Sorting the guilty from the innocent is a dilemma, especially in a "socially integrated society" filled with back-channel conspiracies.
And also because the guilty frequently have a much more pressing incentive to be the ones doing the sorting.
How come when we are kids we long for recess, but when we get all grown up we are afraid of recessions?
"How come when we are kids we long for recess, but when we get all grown up we are afraid of recessions? "
Because the weird looking cafeteria lady still has milk and cookies under the former araingement.
I was addressing equities and the pathos issues. Not what the law is.
If they are set to double their money, instead of coming out even, the "poor pensioners" are gaming the system to appear super pathetic, instead of admitting that what they want is
a fat profit.
I just wanted to know if I got the math right.
Most if not all of the 13 original colonies were chartered corporations ...
"I'll be showing my children the soapboxers on Boston Commons next week."
Damn, Dawg - they still have them? I remember when my Dad took me to see them. I think it was the late '50s.
Eras End was an interesting distraction. I'm so glad he's gone.
What happened? Did he write too many TLT puts?
-- are an ant or a bee or a wasp --
No me, but some people, you'd be surprised. Its pervasive.
And also because the guilty frequently have a much more pressing incentive to be the ones doing the sorting.
Would you say that about the American or French revolutionaries?
Amity Shales called the Forgotten Man about the Great Depression. It focuses on those who did not benefit from FDR's programs, like small business owners. Good reading, and it will challenge your assumptions.
Shales is a market liberal. Small Business owners struggled because the economy sucked. When it recovered, they flourished.
yes, your math is correct, but i think that even if the UAW were shut out, the best the pensioners could do would be to break even. not much value in chrysler.
The Russians I have known have been good-natured fun loving people (who drank a lot). There were stories. One was an older medical resident who in Russia was kidnapped once to take care of a shot mobster. Which he did and was released to go on his way.
Eras End:
Yeah, that and the NRA set prices and created a lot of onerous regulations. If you were a private power company, the government created and subsidized companies to compete with you (sorta like AIG and GMAC). How about you read the book first and then shoot your mouth off. I am no free market zealot, but I gave the book a chance regardless. It was challenged some of my beliefs, which is kinda a good thing.
"Yeah, that and the NRA set prices and created a lot of onerous regulations. If you were a private power company, the government created and subsidized companies to compete with you (sorta like AIG and GMAC). How about you read the book first and then shoot your mouth off. I am no free market zealot, but I gave the book a chance regardless. It was challenged some of my beliefs, which is kinda a good thing."
and I am a challenge to Shales beliefs. Why read what I already know?
More than 40 years ago, I attended a going away party for a Russian grad student who was going
back home after getting his degree. Russian vodka. I took a tiny sip of the stuff he was knocking back by the shot glass, and felt like I was gonna die.
No wonder their lifespan is shrinking.
Amity Shlaes is an idiot ...
The worst kind ... an educated idiot ...
and the only reason she gets attention
is that she propounds TPTB inclinations ...
Four deputies stop a motorist who ends up dead.
Nobody admits anything.
Who is guilty?
Who is innocent?
This is the true moral dilemma because it describes, in a simple form, the problem of out-of-control government. Is Geithner guilty? Is Bernanke? The lawyers like Kashkari who follow orders? The law clerks who write up the documents? The police officers and courts which enforce the laws? The tax collectors who collect the bailout money?
I've pondered it for many years.
There's really no way to separate the guilty from the innocent, only to assign degrees of assumed guilt. Unless you're part of the process, you can't know the true decision-making process.
Ratz, pigged again.
Do I get a brownie point for being the first pigged poster?
"There's really no way to separate the guilty from the innocent, only to assign degrees of assumed guilt."
.......exactly right. That's why we serve $1 beer on tap and free pool - AND the best shooters this side of Vegas.
.......it's obviously nap-time.......lol....
OT/ RANT
what is wrong with us?
As a baby boomer, I grew up with the possibility of nuclear destruction! Now, we can not survive without our IPHONE or our GPS?
Grow up America, life has always been on the edge of destruction...Others have always attempted to destroy our political and economic system since this Republic was formed...
You are lying to yourself and others have lied to you that if you trust us, you will be safe...
Its all one big delusion...., no none knows the future and know one can be totally safe, which the current and past administrations have offered in exchange for your rights and freedoms...And this is coming from a liberal!!!
Rant off/
" like small business owners."
In the great depression, small business owners had a pretty fluid definition. My dad told me his best paying job as a kid was doing deliveries for the neighborhood bootlegger. And his mom, my grandmother, took most of his earnings to buy chickens, which she kept in the garage, selling both eggs and chickens to the neighbors. He also had to deliver those. This was in a nice, middle class neighborhood. And I doubt they reported a nickle to the government.
Who cares about double digits unemployment as long as Goldman, Bank of Amerika, Google, Rimm, and Apple are making record profits. Employment is waaaay overrated. Who needs jobs as long as the stock market keeps going up? Lets just keep buying stocks. As long as the new world order can solidly thier power and the middle class dissolves, all will be well. yay I love jobless recoveries and 4 dollar gas.
good read, folks interesting finance articles
After early writings critical of handling of the economy, the cult of our "Dear Leader" has made it clear that he better get on board. Plus you cannot get the invites to be one of pals of our Dear Leader unless you get "most favored toady" status.
This fall about October or November we will all have a big economic surprise, and Dear Leader/Pee Wee Herman will be "I meant to do that!"