The economy slips back into "recession" again, oops, our estimates were wrong.
There is no "recovery", this has been an ongoing sinking ship since 2001 buoyed by mountains of fake paper.
1) as long as there is deflation unemployment will increase.
2) I'm still waiting for someone to explain how QE can restart a service economy.*
I think that you must evolve a service economy from an industrial economy. Something about inflation getting traction on inventories, and service economies not having those. But I do wish somebody could flesh that out for me.
i (although probably not the only one) called this exact thing on this board a couple of months ago. in reality, it's not really a jobless recovery, if you consider that sustaining an employee and his/her defined benefits, especially given the asset losses, is the equivalent of creating or saving 2X the job.
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed an executive order to cut funding for contracts entered into by state agencies and departments after March 1, 2009, for all goods and services excluding those necessary for public safety and to prohibit entering into any new contracts.
Also, the order directs all state departments to develop and submit to the Department of Finance plans to reduce their future spending on contracts and purchases by at least 15 percent no later than 30 days after the adoption of the revised 2009-10 budget.
The PTB can't admit to the public that all that has been spent or done will do nothing about unemployment until 2011 or later. Instead you will get bi-weekly speeches and pep-talks from the administration's "speaker-du-jour", promising fairy-dust and magical trips to What-Will-Be-When-We-All-Get-Better-WonderLand.
Pep talks and fantasy is all they got. If they can get the people that have some disposable income to spend/invest and not be afraid, they did their job.
In case nobody noticed, our markets are in fantasy world. Absolutely insane! Meanwhile TNX is over 3.9 and the 2-year isn't looking so healthy. Ruh roh...
The power of Pavlov's dog's is amazing. Condition the market to go up by buying SPYs at the same time every day. And eventually the late-day rally powers itself. Until the bottom falls out. Who cares, it's just a damn casino and the endgame is already obvious.
California eliminating funds for recent contracts
Mon Jun 8, 2009 3:35pm EDT
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, facing a state budget gap of $24.3 billion, issued an executive order on Monday that eliminates funding for contracts that state agencies and departments entered after March 1.
The order applies to all goods and services, excluding those for public safety, and also bars state agencies from entering into new contracts in a bid to clamp down on spending and preserve the state's dwindling cash. California eliminating funds for recent contracts
| Reuters
MS,
A red flag statement from that linked article: "Did they really need the line of credit? Maybe not, Barbara said, but they weren't used to tracking their monthly expenses closely."
Also this: "They decided to take advantage of the drop in mortgage interest rates and applied for a $300,000 refinance. They planned to use the proceeds to pay off a $200,000 balance on a $350,000 home equity line of credit at Wells Fargo"
So they were looking for a cash-out refi...can't really complain about being rejected for that. The whole story is just a joke.
"June 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, erasing an earlier tumble, after Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the economy will probably emerge from recession by September.
Is Not This ...
Krugman said “there’s some reason to think that we’re stabilizing.”
~~~~
I wonder if Krugman is considering the problems in state and local government ...
Isn't Princeton in New Jersey ... NJ is having real problems ...
To those that understand the bond market more than I do:
1) How significant are the moves in the 2/10 today?
2) Between the moves of the 2 and the 10 today, which is more important/concerning?
With this stay and the letter to Obama from Steny Hoyer to not shut down GM dealers might mean back to step 1 and maybe back to regular BK for these two companies....
wonder if Krugman is considering the problems in state and local government .
Laggard. Sorry, but most of the problems from the last downturn, were talked about mostly in 2002-3 from a state/local issue. After NBER's so called recession end dating.
I think this board needs a dose of perspective. Revenue problems for muni's,states and the Feds come after the recession. The FED just looks worse because of Bush's war spree before the recession.
"I guess Krugman hasn't been looking at the mortgage bond market recently."
"I wonder if Krugman is considering the problems in state and local government ..."
Probably not. No one is. I hear nothing about how coming layoffs in state/local gov will affect unemployment rates, and I've got my ear to the ground on this one.
So are all the workforce analysts going to be "surprised and shocked" at the end of summer when unemployment spikes after late June end-of-FY layoffs in local gov't and schools?
"I think this board needs a dose of perspective. Revenue problems for muni's,states and the Feds come after the recession. "
Not where I'm sitting. Of course California overrelies on income and sales tax for revenue, and is especially vulnerable. But they're not the only ones.
"Not where I'm sitting. Of course California overrelies on income and sales tax for revenue, and is especially vulnerable. But they're not the only ones".
From where I am sitting. This recession was long due to the nature of it, California's big budget problems, didn't start materializing to the end of it, as is usually the case.
Now they cut off the bubble era spending to the voters cry no more and ask for their taxes to be raised. Democracy in action!!!!
Typical. I am simply not impressed, by the wild crying over this. Same thing happened in the early 80's as well.
wonder if Krugman is considering the problems in state and local government .
Or the more pressing problem of consumer spending and retail sales, which still appear to be declining.
Maybe this is an attempt to boost the effect and the perception of the stimulus spending that's supposedly coming and is strongly associated with Krugman.
"This projection indicates that the level of labor market slack would be higher by the end of 2009 than experienced at any other time in the post-World War II period."
Who cares about double digits unemployment as long as Goldman, Bank of Amerika, Google, Rimm, and Apple are making record profits. Employment is waaaay overrated. Who needs jobs as long as the stock market keeps going up? Lets just keep buying stocks. As long as the new world order can solidly thier power and the middle class dissolves, all will be well. yay I love jobless recoveries and 4 dollar gas.
The jobless recovery is more the rule than the exception it seems, in line with the research you quote in your post. (Also: http://globalstructures.blogspot.com/2009/06/jobless-recovery-scenario.html). However, estimating the length of it probably takes more than merely the speed of the recovery. If the productivity hypothesis is true, then it is also the depth of the crisis, and perhaps most importantly, the length of time period in which companies refrained from updating their technology will be the deciding factor.
I thought they weren't supposed to mention jobs. I thought they always called this sort of thing "excess slack in resource utilization" or somesuch.
I still have a job, working on a bankruptcy.
What a joke.
The economy slips back into "recession" again, oops, our estimates were wrong.
There is no "recovery", this has been an ongoing sinking ship since 2001 buoyed by mountains of fake paper.
1) as long as there is deflation unemployment will increase.
2) I'm still waiting for someone to explain how QE can restart a service economy.*
i (although probably not the only one) called this exact thing on this board a couple of months ago. in reality, it's not really a jobless recovery, if you consider that sustaining an employee and his/her defined benefits, especially given the asset losses, is the equivalent of creating or saving 2X the job.
Someone say Jobs?
By Kevin Reynolds
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed an executive order to cut funding for contracts entered into by state agencies and departments after March 1, 2009, for all goods and services excluding those necessary for public safety and to prohibit entering into any new contracts.
Also, the order directs all state departments to develop and submit to the Department of Finance plans to reduce their future spending on contracts and purchases by at least 15 percent no later than 30 days after the adoption of the revised 2009-10 budget.
The PTB can't admit to the public that all that has been spent or done will do nothing about unemployment until 2011 or later. Instead you will get bi-weekly speeches and pep-talks from the administration's "speaker-du-jour", promising fairy-dust and magical trips to What-Will-Be-When-We-All-Get-Better-WonderLand.
So how do I invest to make a profit on this new bubble of pixi dust?
So how do I invest to make a profit on this new bubble of pixi dust?
dunno. how about GMGMQ? Up 37% today.
Pep talks and fantasy is all they got. If they can get the people that have some disposable income to spend/invest and not be afraid, they did their job.
@Kauai - buy SPY for the afternoon pump. Sell at close, rinse & repeat.
In case nobody noticed, our markets are in fantasy world. Absolutely insane! Meanwhile TNX is over 3.9 and the 2-year isn't looking so healthy. Ruh roh...
i am slack... (on a 4 day week).
Nice pump there.....on what? or just the regularly scheduled (+/- 10 min.) SPY binge....
Ciao
MS
In case nobody noticed, our markets are in fantasy world. Absolutely insane!
True, but very low volume: Shark Investing - Volume Charts
......took off like a rocket at 3pm. Amazing.
I love those Shark Investing graphs. It's neat seeing as how the last 55 minutes of any trading day makes up 30-40% of a day's volume.
US sovereign debt is just so hard to price these days.
Zerohedge has been demonstrating how JPMorgan is responsible for all these pumps buy purchasing lots of SPY when they need to pump.
Is these markets some sort of propaganda being pumped that only history will be able to tell.
The power of Pavlov's dog's is amazing. Condition the market to go up by buying SPYs at the same time every day. And eventually the late-day rally powers itself. Until the bottom falls out. Who cares, it's just a damn casino and the endgame is already obvious.
3.9 on the ten year?
Higher oil prices, higher interest rates, lower wages ... sounds like the recipe for growth!
attention: the market will not be allowed to go down.
that is all.
The pump on the market has given the Supremes some cover.
I can already hear the MSNBC gang breathing heavily as they watch the economic recovery flex its muscle in late session trading today!
these spikes are even more powerful than Karch Kiraly in his best beach volleyball days...geez
There's something rotten in the state of den mark to model...
look at the volume on SPY (last 20 min or so)...that's pretty heavy even if it is a pump job.
I thought it would drop as my SPY calls got filled right away on a limit .02 under bid.
Totally effing games
Ciao
MS
Buy...Buy...Buy.....BOOOOHHH YAAAAAHHHH!!!!
I heard the Manhattan Indians are jealous of Wall*Street and want to open their own casino next door.
California eliminating funds for recent contracts
Mon Jun 8, 2009 3:35pm EDT
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, facing a state budget gap of $24.3 billion, issued an executive order on Monday that eliminates funding for contracts that state agencies and departments entered after March 1.
The order applies to all goods and services, excluding those for public safety, and also bars state agencies from entering into new contracts in a bid to clamp down on spending and preserve the state's dwindling cash.
California eliminating funds for recent contracts
| Reuters
quittin early today - trade well
1950's: We must not have a missile gap!
2000's: We must not have a budget gap!
Trully remarkable turnaround states Faux News. Is a Market Czar on his way to town.
10 year just licked 3.90
Baby, can I bribe your czar?
From the Oregonian blog...
Retirees hit bewildering credit roadblock | It's Only Money - OregonLive.com
There is some obvious errors on both the writer and subject however it does point out that your credit scores (high or low) matter little nowadays.
Ciao
MS
Good one JD,
Quasi-OT:
If the JPY bonds could be called "Samurai" bonds, what would the CNY bonds be called?
(HT to asa and Dead_Monkey_Bounce for some of the suggestions)
OK here is some comical narrative fallacy for the commentariat:
U.S. Stocks Erase Losses After Krugman Predicts Recession’s End
By Lynn Thomasson
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, erasing an earlier tumble, after Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the economy will probably emerge from recession by September.
Most U.S. Stocks Drop as Health-Care, Commodity Shares Slump - Bloomberg.com
If the JPY bonds could be called "Samurai" bonds, what would the CNY bonds be called?
Carradines? Because they will go for the thrill but end up as a kill?
Kamikaze bonds are strictly for high-risk short-term players
nova --
If the JPY bonds could be called "Samurai" bonds, what would the CNY bonds be called?
Panda bonds
(h/t Felix Salmon)
Krugman: Now Obama's tool.
MS,
A red flag statement from that linked article: "Did they really need the line of credit? Maybe not, Barbara said, but they weren't used to tracking their monthly expenses closely."
Also this: "They decided to take advantage of the drop in mortgage interest rates and applied for a $300,000 refinance. They planned to use the proceeds to pay off a $200,000 balance on a $350,000 home equity line of credit at Wells Fargo"
So they were looking for a cash-out refi...can't really complain about being rejected for that. The whole story is just a joke.
Krugman: Now Obama's tool.
no kidding, WTF?
this shit just gets weirder every day
LOL, Krugman is just talking about the end of recession. No big recovery coming anytime soon.
supreme court issues chrysler stay
There they go again ...
This ...
"June 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, erasing an earlier tumble, after Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the economy will probably emerge from recession by September.
Is Not This ...
Krugman said “there’s some reason to think that we’re stabilizing.”
~~~~
I wonder if Krugman is considering the problems in state and local government ...
Isn't Princeton in New Jersey ... NJ is having real problems ...
Subgum war bond
ginsberg issued the stay
Krugman's comments are not gonig to solve the massive debt bubble anytime soon....
Krugman said “there’s some reason to think that we’re stabilizing.”
I guess Krugman hasn't been looking at the mortgage bond market recently.
3 PM pump job = The Power of Positive Tinkering
To those that understand the bond market more than I do:
1) How significant are the moves in the 2/10 today?
2) Between the moves of the 2 and the 10 today, which is more important/concerning?
Has Krugman written anything critical of the Obama administration since that dinner at the White House?
Just curious.
With this stay and the letter to Obama from Steny Hoyer to not shut down GM dealers might mean back to step 1 and maybe back to regular BK for these two companies....
wonder if Krugman is considering the problems in state and local government .
Laggard. Sorry, but most of the problems from the last downturn, were talked about mostly in 2002-3 from a state/local issue. After NBER's so called recession end dating.
I think this board needs a dose of perspective. Revenue problems for muni's,states and the Feds come after the recession. The FED just looks worse because of Bush's war spree before the recession.
"I guess Krugman hasn't been looking at the mortgage bond market recently."
Sure did. Not the big deal you expect.
"Krugman: Now Obama's tool."
yep, the PTB have their boys lining up ...
they are pulling out all the stops ...
Look at Bloomberg ...
"emerging from recession"
~~~~
Things must be realy, really dicey ...
Come fall, or sooner, TSWHTF ...
Hey Kristina, I was out helping me mom get her new Fla tags & the grocery store,
but I think you done good.
You were lucky it happened this way. I'm glad you now have an escrow.
Prolly if you weren't late they wouldn't have dropped the interest rate.
And my, my, a reward for paying on time. You go girl. I read about it, but
you are the first I've heard who actually got it.
What's good for Chrysler is good for the country, a stay of execution...
Hmmm .. 3.91 on the ten year -- I wonder if it can break 4 over the course of the auctions this week?
Krugman: Now Obama's tool.
It is interesting because there's been a lot of talk about an orchestrated "animal spirits" campaign recently.
If so it's entirely consistent with a confidence game involving a bunch of animals.
Nemo,
I do not believe so... maybe he is promised Summers treasury position
For those keeping score at home:
10y bond 3.90% +0.09 (2.36%)
Bond market: 1 FED: 0
"I wonder if Krugman is considering the problems in state and local government ..."
Probably not. No one is. I hear nothing about how coming layoffs in state/local gov will affect unemployment rates, and I've got my ear to the ground on this one.
So are all the workforce analysts going to be "surprised and shocked" at the end of summer when unemployment spikes after late June end-of-FY layoffs in local gov't and schools?
"I think this board needs a dose of perspective. Revenue problems for muni's,states and the Feds come after the recession. "
Not where I'm sitting. Of course California overrelies on income and sales tax for revenue, and is especially vulnerable. But they're not the only ones.
Ginsburg issued the stay (!?)
Holy mackerel.
How's about that, a stay issued.
Interesting Times
"Krugman's comments are not gonig to solve the massive debt bubble anytime soon...."
~~~
Exactly ...
And changing accounting rules doesn't generate cash, just paper profits ...
How long before they run out of rules to change ...
Rattner's on the phone to Ruth now saying "do you know who you're f&cking with?"
Four what's it's worth the number 4 is considered the worst single number by the Chinese...
It's a homonym for Death, or in this case: Debt
Someone at the PPT should be fired today. Definitely stopped pushing the button too soon -- Dow didn't close up for the year.
Nemo,
Yeah RBG herself...thought she would let time run out and not address before june 16... surprise full court has to hear it now
"Not where I'm sitting. Of course California overrelies on income and sales tax for revenue, and is especially vulnerable. But they're not the only ones".
From where I am sitting. This recession was long due to the nature of it, California's big budget problems, didn't start materializing to the end of it, as is usually the case.
Now they cut off the bubble era spending to the voters cry no more and ask for their taxes to be raised. Democracy in action!!!!
Typical. I am simply not impressed, by the wild crying over this. Same thing happened in the early 80's as well.
supreme court issues chrysler stay
Link please?
There won't be a jobless recovery this time, and these SOBs know it. Not with the home ATM gone and no credit avail.
Think they'll threaten her with an IRS audit?
"Revenue problems for muni's,states and the Feds come after the recession. "
~~~
LOL ...
Have you checked the budget deficits from the revenue shortfalls for the Feds and states recently ?
Does this mean we are out of recession?
wonder if Krugman is considering the problems in state and local government .
Or the more pressing problem of consumer spending and retail sales, which still appear to be declining.
Maybe this is an attempt to boost the effect and the perception of the stimulus spending that's supposedly coming and is strongly associated with Krugman.
Krugman is the 4th most partisan columnist, according to
Lying in Ponds
Sc looking out for creditors. hoocoodanode.....
SCOTUSblog
"I thought they always called this sort of thing "excess slack in resource utilization" or somesuch."
The unemployable are "low use human resources."
Or the more pressing problem of consumer spending and retail sales, which still appear to be declining
Only in relation to the big pump in the first quarter.
Fiat to Cerberus "arrivederci, a tre treste cane"
wow i announced at 358 SCOTUS issued at 402
Chrysler Asset Deal Stayed by U.S. Supreme Court, Lawyer Says - Bloomberg.com
"Maybe this is an attempt to boost the effect and the perception of the stimulus spending
that's supposedly coming and is strongly associated with Krugman."
~~~~
Doubt it ... that stimulus will be mostly for materials ...
And the money for labor will be for fewer higher paid help ...
Illinois got the most stimulus ...
Isn't that where Obama is from ... ?
The momster & I had lunch in a restaurant in Titusville that is usually jumping. Only 1/3
full. Lots of empty car lots; some still full.
Arrrghhh!! Pigged.
From CR's snippet of the Fed letter:
"This projection indicates that the level of labor market slack would be higher by the end of 2009 than experienced at any other time in the post-World War II period."
Wow.
Who cares about double digits unemployment as long as Goldman, Bank of Amerika, Google, Rimm, and Apple are making record profits. Employment is waaaay overrated. Who needs jobs as long as the stock market keeps going up? Lets just keep buying stocks. As long as the new world order can solidly thier power and the middle class dissolves, all will be well. yay I love jobless recoveries and 4 dollar gas.
good read, folks interesting finance articles
The jobless recovery is more the rule than the exception it seems, in line with the research you quote in your post. (Also: http://globalstructures.blogspot.com/2009/06/jobless-recovery-scenario.html). However, estimating the length of it probably takes more than merely the speed of the recovery. If the productivity hypothesis is true, then it is also the depth of the crisis, and perhaps most importantly, the length of time period in which companies refrained from updating their technology will be the deciding factor.