19 months is not a "recession." 3 more quarters will not be a recession either. Next shoe is when the weak hands fold and the new owners with substantially lower cost basis take out all the previously marginal properties. We have another 6-10 quarters of new supply coming on line in the teeth of massively lower demand. You cannot repurpose hotel/motel properties. They've generated their own black hole.
@Rob Dawg - DYBI is right - there was a more or less abandoned hotel here in Dallas along an expressway that was converted into an assisted/senior living establishment. There was anothr old office building closer to downtown that was similarly converted about 2 years ago.
Public Company Accounting Oversight Board Chairman Mark Olson resigns effective July 31
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The head of the independent board overseeing the accounting industry is resigning a year before his term is set to expire.
Olson, whose resignation takes effect July 31, says the decision "is entirely personal and reflects my desire at this time of life to establish new priorities."
I am in the market to buy a motel in california but they have not come down much so for. best you can find is 3.5 times multiples of gross income whereas in some other states you can get around 2X now.
What is the future of motel market in California?
I am looking for $2-3million market.
-- In a similar vein, the airlines are projecting a 9B loss for 2009. Further consolidation ahead --
When is the the Jetliner leasing scamisdary of AIG finally gonna blow. Anyone here been to the Mojave airport and seen the overcapacity mothballed there?
I don't know - I'm staying at the Hyatt Regency on Wacker next month for $92 ($113 all in). Pricelined it. Kind of nice to be getting some better buys, especially when it's my dime. Now, if only these clients would start spending more money...oops.
Be interesting to see how the new W hotel/condo megalith in Hollywood works out. Will it join the ranks of the San Diego W? Or will it thrive because TinselTown is "different"?
The Chicago Tribune article only briefly mentions two "stalled" downtown hotel projects - The Shangri-La and an unnamed project at 1 IBM Plaza. There are at least two more just in the downtown area. The architecturally stunning (my opinion) Aqua building, just a block from Millennium Park, has a hotel portion that was intended to be an addition to the Fairmont Hotel across the street (connected via under-street tunnel). Fairmont backed out and the hotel space sits empty. North of the river is the Staybridge Suites. Construction was halted at least 6 or 8 months ago and the building is about 75% finished.
There is a JW Marriott going in next door to the Chicago Fed. It's a re purposing of the old City National Bank and Trust building and will be a HUGE hotel; adding to the large glut of downtown hotel space once the renovations are finished.
How about this. I'll rent Geithner's place in Westchester County, NY and have a CR party. And I don't want anybody misbehaving. No cement dumped down the drains or other tomfoolery. That wouldn't be fair as MR. Geithner is not only in over his head, he's underwater!
Regardless, after the party, I'll likely stop paying rent and squat until the sherrif gives me the boot. It's the eCONomy stupid!
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- A “remarkable change” in investor sentiment has doubled the price of some collateralized loan obligation securities in the past month, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
CLOs are a type of collateralized debt obligation that pool high-yield, high-risk, or junk, loans and slice them into securities of varying risk and return. Pieces graded AA, the third highest-level of investment grade, rose from 23 cents on the dollar to 47 cents in the past month, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Vishwanath Tirupattur wrote in a June 5 report. Securities ranked A have gained 13 cents from 10 cents since the end of last month, the report said.
The Obama administration plans to announce as soon as today that some of the nation's largest banks can repay billions in federal aid, but some officials caution that the show of progress is being underwritten by multiple layers of less visible government support.
Through cheap loans, debt guarantees and a promise that big banks will not be allowed to fail, these officials say the government has created an artificial environment in which profits and stock prices have rebounded, helping banks in recent weeks to raise about $50 billion from private investor
dont you believe it (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 10:10 am
-- You cannot repurpose hotel/motel properties --
Indeed you can. They could become nursing homes.
Mr.Sparkle (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 10:12 am
@Rob Dawg - DYBI is right - there was a more or less abandoned hotel here in Dallas along an expressway that was converted into an assisted/senior living establishment. There was anothr old office building closer to downtown that was similarly converted about 2 years ago.
No. I cannot speak to those anecdotes but Mrs. Dawg has her masters in Health Care Admin and actively manages a half dozen SoCal facilities. One of her specialities is configuring layout for service provision and safety. None of these hotel purposed structures come even close.
OT but just wanted say thanks to Rich if you are still out there. You made a couple of calls which I heeded. I took enough profit out to pay my tax bill this year. Now I just have to decide whether to take the rest off the table and into a CD or stay in glod paper.
I am in the market to buy a motel in california but they have not come down much so for. best you can find is 3.5 times multiples of gross income whereas in some other states you can get around 2X now.
What is the future of motel market in California?
I am looking for $2-3million market.
I'm no expert, but I'll that inland, along the I-5 corridor, it's going to shrink in on itself. There's no real "there" there -- nothing to pull additional business that I can see -- but there's a new Hampton Inn every few exits, or it seems so.
Along the coast -- I have no idea. I know that people are hurting locally; stumbled into a meet-and-greet for the hospitality industry by accident, and they're all battling higher vacancy rates with discounts, pushing back "high season rates" into June, and so on.
As for repurposing: SRO residence hotel conversion might work for some. Not in the new places along the freeway; they're too far out from city center for low income/working class people who may not have transport. I'm talking about the old, crappy ones along the old "business routes" through the city center. We have a couple of very old motels ('30s-style motor courts) that were converted to studios long before I got to town. So it's a possibility for the right location as long as the infrastructure mods aren't too extreme.
energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 10:44 am
RD,
Yeah, ask the better half to speculate about nosocomial infection rates in a facility not designed to minimize same...yikes.
I understand what you are saying (correct) but for our silent readers; "How wide do the hallways need to be at minimum?" Or "How wide and how many exits are in the Physical Therapy Room?"
Now talk to me about AMP loading on the regular circuits. What? You ONLY have "regular" circuits?
thanks for your response. I agree with I-5 corridor is over crowded with motels. Problem is coastal areas, Mendocino to Santa Cruz is too expensive, 4-5X of gross revenues. seems like lake Tahoe and some other tourist areas in sierra foothills may be getting reasonable (3x or lower) in coming months.
@Rob Dawg - right after I re-read my own comment and a couple others right there, it dawned on me that those facilities have a HUGE potential liability problem on their hands since if there were a fire, you've got a bunch of potentially less ambulatory folks trying to go down stairs. The first example I gave is probably 6-8 stories and if it's like other hotels I've been in, probably has 2-3 elevators and that's about it.
Also, this is Texas. Down here, we frown on regulation for things like "safety" and stuff like that. We're almost the opposite of Cali in many ways.
Anybody else have a sense/guess on time lines for unrest?
IMO it will start with the UE young people but it won't be organized unrest it will simply be increased crime. Home robbery, auto theft, drug activity etc. Maybe about a year off... we still have a lot of HOPE right now.
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- A “remarkable change” in investor sentiment has doubled the price of some collateralized loan obligation securities in the past month, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
CLOs are a type of collateralized debt obligation that pool high-yield, high-risk, or junk, loans and slice them into securities of varying risk and return.
They should call them something like TWCs (Taxpayer Wealth Conduits).
@Rob Dawg - somewhere between Cali & Texas, there's a happy medium. (I'm not a native.)
Here's a link to the facility I was mentioning. If you just google it, you'll get a couple of reviews that mention how you can tell it was a converted hotel. I can't remember what the brand was. I want to say Radisson but maybe a Garden Suites... amazing how those details just slip away - and I used to drive by it every day for about 2 years!
-- it dawned on me that those facilities have a HUGE potential liability problem --
Here in Switzerland we have overcome the problem of Idiot Proofing the building by employing only competent care providers. Its quite simple and goes to the topic of several discussions hence "Does Education Pay?".
ac, I just did a loan mod via Saxon (aka MS), they are swamped with mods and the wait time just to speak to someone is about a half an hour. I wonder if this explains their "bullishness"?
Bob Dobbs,
thanks for your response. I agree with I-5 corridor is over crowded with motels. Problem is coastal areas, Mendocino to Santa Cruz is too expensive, 4-5X of gross revenues. seems like lake Tahoe and some other tourist areas in sierra foothills may be getting reasonable (3x or lower) in coming months.
Be wary up Tahoe way. There is so much competition from vacation rental homes, especially in ski season.
I live in Santa Cruz; we have a lot of motels, largely of lower quality. Some new ones are coming online, like a Holiday Inn Express, but room rates are so high. This is a budget-traveler area; many of our multi-day visitors come from the lower-income San Joaquin Valley, not the high income SF Bay area. A high proportion of Bay Area visitors are day trippers.
A high-end B&B I stayed at locally (for a high-end "staycation") extended its off-season rates well-into June, so that should tell you something; they keep sending me emails. They're part of a ten-inn chain with locations from Half Moon Bay down to Carmel. The discounts apply to any of them.
Found it... was the "Sheraton Park Central". If you do a google street search, it's actually at 7768 LBJ Freeway instead of the 7750 address that it states on the site. The photo looks like about mid-conversion status.
American Truckers Association chief economist, Bob Costello:
“While most key economic indicators are decreasing at a slower rate, the year-over-year contractions in truck tonnage accelerated because businesses are right-sizing their inventories, which means fewer truck shipments,” Costello said. “The absolute dollar value of inventories has fallen, but sales have decreased as much or more, which means that inventories are still too high for the current level of sales. Until this correction is complete, freight will be tough for motor carriers.”
The rails are no better. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reports:
“U.S. rail carload traffic in May 2009 fell 24.7 percent”, the worst y/y % decline of the recession. People that believe commodities are soaring because the economy has turned the corner should note that “U.S. rail carloadings fell in May 2009 in all 19 major commodity groups tracked by the AAR, including coal (down 89,134 carloads, or 15.8 percent); motor vehicles and equipment (down 35,674 carloads, or 52.3 percent); and metals and metal products (down 33,987 carloads, or 62.7 percent). Carloads of chemicals were down 23,147 carloads (18.3 percent) and carloads of grain were down 21,910 carloads (24.5 percent).”
For just the week ended May 30, the AAR reported the following totals for U.S. railroads: 233,195 carloads, down 26.3 percent from the corresponding week in 2008; intermodal volume of 164,916 trailers and containers, down 19.2 percent; and total volume of an estimated 24.8 billion ton-miles, down 25.1 percent from the equivalent week last year.
Think twice about 'green' transport, say scientists
PARIS (AFP) – You worry a lot about the environment and do everything you can to reduce your carbon footprint -- the emissions of greenhouse gases that drive dangerous climate change.
So you always prefer to take the train or the bus rather than a plane, and avoid using a car whenever you can, faithful to the belief that this inflicts less harm to the planet.
Well, there could be a nasty surprise in store for you, for taking public transport may not be as green as you automatically think, says a new US study. Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"What is the future of motel market in California?
I am looking for $2-3million market."
......who would ever consider buying a hotel in THIS market? CRE is crashing, lodgers are scarce and getting more scarce, rates are plunging - the only upside will be that some might be new Section-8 Housing.
energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 11:12 am
... taking public transport may not be as green as you automatically think, says a new US study.
I posted similar analyses back in '96. There are notable exceptions such as hydro powered urban transit in the Nordic States but generally the total energy expenditure for most person transportation modes is roughly similar. I would also note that this is only because private transport modes are tasked with the most difficult and energy intensive jobs. In effect public transit only manages to get comparable to private transport because of cherry picking and also depending upon a support structure reliant upon the "less efficient" POV segment for ongoing operations.
many people of south asian ethnicities (e.g. indian, pakastani, etc) purchased hotels and motels, especially in distressed areas, to qualify for the investor visa. American Immigration Law Areas of Practice
Good points on public vs private modes of transportation. I add that given our current tax laws, public transportation investments enrich banks at the expense of other taxable sources. The increase in real estate values due to public investment always leads to higher borrowing against property so as to reduce taxable income.
We can no longer keep taxing wages/labor for the benefit of finance.
Once upon a time it was mentioned here that disruptions in supply chains would be an indicator of further disruptions.
We are getting 2 bathrooms gutted and redone. The contractor just sent me an email letting me know that he has been getting a lot of items arriving damaged or they are out of stock and shipment is taking a lot longer than it used too.
Nova, here's a notification I recently received from our manufacturer in China. May be nothing.
Dear All,
As informed by PVC material manufacturer that Dinch would be used as the plasticizer of NP-PVC instead of Mesamoll due to lack supply of Mesamoll, the price was kept no change. Enclosed please find the technical data sheet & lab test report of Dinch for your reference.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 11:26 am
Rob Dawg,
Good points on public vs private modes of transportation. I add that given our current tax laws, public transportation investments enrich banks at the expense of other taxable sources. The increase in real estate values due to public investment always leads to higher borrowing against property so as to reduce taxable income.
We can no longer keep taxing wages/labor for the benefit of finance.
Heck, Transit Oriented Development these days also receives direct overt government subsidies. Double anti-mobility incentives.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 11:27 am
Once upon a time it was mentioned here that disruptions in supply chains would be an indicator of further disruptions.
We are getting 2 bathrooms gutted and redone. The contractor just sent me an email letting me know that he has been getting a lot of items arriving damaged or they are out of stock and shipment is taking a lot longer than it used too.
Yup. The long chain is breaking. I have frakin marble in my kid's bathroom. I have frakin' marble in the tool shed. Cheaper than formica in 2007. The very idea of mining, manufacturing and delivering a 300lb slab 8000 miles for $230 is insane.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 11:37 am
reply ignore user
The very idea of mining, manufacturing and delivering a 300lb slab 8000 miles for $230 is insane.
The Magical Hand at work.
How much is that #2 pencil again?
Seriously, I wasn't talking economies of scale but actual costs. The price of the blade wear, the polishing dust, the joules, and I still don't get $230.
"I think the same thing when I see a box of pears from New Zealand sitting at the grocery "
Or apples from NZ. Or grapes from Chile, tomatoes from the Netherlands (hothouse grown), oranges from Australia; there's food out there that's much better-traveled than I am. Not to mention "live-pack" high-end seafood that comes from half a world away by air to end up on the menu at the better restaurants.
Nova you write such apocalyptic stuff yet you are remodeling your bathrooms? I would think you would be looking for a building site out here in Bunkerland....
That's what I thought you meant. I was told that by someone from Pakistan. He told me that about dozen or family members/friends pooled their money together to send one family member over to buy a motel. Found out it is fairly but never heard anyone else talk about it. Thanks for the response.
I saw the new Pixar movie Up last weekend. I found the metaphor kind of striking, though I'm sure the producers had no such metaphor intended.
An elderly widower spends most of the film umbilically lashed (via garden hose) to his over-inflated, dilapidated home, trying to bring it to a gentle landing atop an extremely high plateau while spending much of the film wandering through a harsh, unforgiving landscape battling various critters with an unwanted kid in tow. Eventually he succeeds, momentarily, only to have to dump all his treasured belongings from the house in order to levitate it once more. However, in the end he is forced to cut the house loose, watching it rapidly lose altitude as it sinks beneath the clouds for good
Tool of the Fed (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 11:42 am
@RD - I think the same thing when I see a box of pears from New Zealand sitting at the grocery
Equally weird happens all the time. My eldest is at UCLA about 40 minutes directly east of where we live. We joined her for dinner last night and the big buzz was fresh strawberries with a 20 person line waiting for a serving. Understand. Where we live, 40 minutes to the west of campus, we have strawberry fields growing nearby on 6 of the 8 compass points. Long lines are very fragile but for efficiency everything is being channelled into long lines. The opposite of robust. Walmart is my prediction for the big loser in this great shortening.
"The contractor just sent me an email letting me know that he has been getting a lot of items arriving damaged or they are out of stock and shipment is taking a lot longer than it used too."
Try and get men's cotton cargo pants, 28-29 inch waist. Maybe in Japan.
"Try and get men's cotton cargo pants, 28-29 inch waist."
.....try your local Salvation Army - I get all my long-legged trousers there.
To be decided today by 1pm PT. (to be either heard or ignored) :
"As an economic matter ... blocking the transaction [of the Chrysler bankruptcy] would undoubtedly have grave consequences," [U.S. Solicitor General Elena] Kagan wrote.
high-end food, I can understand (e.g. a primo tuna that gets x-thousand $, is flash-freezed and on the way to Japan within hours of catch)
but an apple? it would cost an estimated $800 for a 1-way ticket from NZ to US. OK, I understand that I need a little more O2 and
some heat, but the shipping cost alone is what makes me wonder
Mein Gott, how much can I eat? I get funny looks from waiters when I leave half the food on the plate. "No thank you, I do not need to have this boxed."
...the year-over-year contractions in truck tonnage accelerated because businesses are right-sizing their inventories, which means fewer truck shipments,” Costello said.
WMT is eliminating inventory: asked the local WMT assistant manager about several empty shelfspaces throughout the store and he explained that they are going to "truck-to-shelf" stocking, bypassing each store's inventory storage process. New meaning for JIT delivery, but with no depth any buyer's rush could produce the old G.U.M. look: large store, empty shelves.
All that produce comes over in climate controlled ships. That's the relatively cheap part. The part that amazes me is once it gets to a US dock, all labor is at our rates. That's where the costs add up in a hurry.
Next winter's produce might be a bit higher as Argentina's govt is forcibly cutting exports.
All that produce comes over in climate controled ships. That's the cheap part. Once it arrives at a US dock, it's on our labor rates. That's the part that amazes me. There's alot of handling there.
The Argentine govt has forcibly cut exports, so prices might be a bit higher next winter.
I would also note that this is only because private transport modes are tasked with the most difficult and energy intensive jobs. In effect public transit only manages to get comparable to private transport because of cherry picking and also depending upon a support structure reliant upon the "less efficient" POV segment for ongoing operations.
Translation: always choose the right tool for the job. Transportation is no different.
Who cares about double digits unemployment as long as Goldman, Bank of Amerika, Google, Rimm, and Apple are making record profits. Employment is waaaay overrated. Who needs jobs as long as the stock market keeps going up? Lets just keep buying stocks. As long as the new world order can solidly thier power and the middle class dissolves, all will be well. yay I love jobless recoveries and 4 dollar gas.
The article, "Hotel Recession Reaches 19 months" is quite informative. For those travelers going to certain cities could get reduced hotel rates and save money.
My website is [url] ITISTIMETOTALK.COM [/url]
Thank you for sharing this data.
What we need is a Hotel New Deal.
UPDATE: Now that I've claimed the first spot I'm going to abuse it to no end with the edit button.
Aren't these guys banking heavily on the (now defunct) PPIP?
From the last thread
The answer to the glut of commercial space is more casinos.
"Of the 1,300 malls in the country, 200 to 300 are in danger of going out of business or becoming something else..."
same source: Vultures ready to swoop on US shopping centre convention | North America | News
19 months is not a "recession." 3 more quarters will not be a recession either. Next shoe is when the weak hands fold and the new owners with substantially lower cost basis take out all the previously marginal properties. We have another 6-10 quarters of new supply coming on line in the teeth of massively lower demand. You cannot repurpose hotel/motel properties. They've generated their own black hole.
Who would have thought that people would get tired of overpaying for crap?
The recession is GOOD for America in some ways
-- You cannot repurpose hotel/motel properties --
Indeed you can. They could become nursing homes.
Indeed you can. They could become nursing homes.
Prisons.
Asian vacation resorts.
7-11 stores.
Payday stores.
So many possibilities.
@Rob Dawg - DYBI is right - there was a more or less abandoned hotel here in Dallas along an expressway that was converted into an assisted/senior living establishment. There was anothr old office building closer to downtown that was similarly converted about 2 years ago.
In a similar vein, the airlines are projecting a 9B loss for 2009. Further consolidation ahead
Don't you mean bailout ?
Accounting oversight board chairman resigns
Public Company Accounting Oversight Board Chairman Mark Olson resigns effective July 31
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The head of the independent board overseeing the accounting industry is resigning a year before his term is set to expire.
Olson, whose resignation takes effect July 31, says the decision "is entirely personal and reflects my desire at this time of life to establish new priorities."
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
I am in the market to buy a motel in california but they have not come down much so for. best you can find is 3.5 times multiples of gross income whereas in some other states you can get around 2X now.
What is the future of motel market in California?
I am looking for $2-3million market.
-- In a similar vein, the airlines are projecting a 9B loss for 2009. Further consolidation ahead --
When is the the Jetliner leasing scamisdary of AIG finally gonna blow. Anyone here been to the Mojave airport and seen the overcapacity mothballed there?
best you can find is 3.5 times multiples of gross income
"...total revenue for the 35,000-plus rooms in downtown Chicago has plunged 25 percent year to date."
Racked by glut of rooms - Chicago Tribune
I don't know - I'm staying at the Hyatt Regency on Wacker next month for $92 ($113 all in). Pricelined it. Kind of nice to be getting some better buys, especially when it's my dime. Now, if only these clients would start spending more money...oops.
so does this mean that dilapidated motels are no longer going to be used as a backdoor green card?
Be interesting to see how the new W hotel/condo megalith in Hollywood works out. Will it join the ranks of the San Diego W? Or will it thrive because TinselTown is "different"?
don't know - I'm staying at the Hyatt Regency on Wacker next month for $92 ($113 all in). Pricelined it.
I pricelined the Sir Francis Drake (half a block off Union Square) for $70/night over Memorial Day weekend. I was shocked.
duh... half block off Union Square in San francisco.
The Chicago Tribune article only briefly mentions two "stalled" downtown hotel projects - The Shangri-La and an unnamed project at 1 IBM Plaza. There are at least two more just in the downtown area. The architecturally stunning (my opinion) Aqua building, just a block from Millennium Park, has a hotel portion that was intended to be an addition to the Fairmont Hotel across the street (connected via under-street tunnel). Fairmont backed out and the hotel space sits empty. North of the river is the Staybridge Suites. Construction was halted at least 6 or 8 months ago and the building is about 75% finished.
There is a JW Marriott going in next door to the Chicago Fed. It's a re purposing of the old City National Bank and Trust building and will be a HUGE hotel; adding to the large glut of downtown hotel space once the renovations are finished.
wall*street's 1% - 1.5% off sale still isn't drawing many customers:
NAZ & NYSE volume: Shark Investing - Volume Charts
How about this. I'll rent Geithner's place in Westchester County, NY and have a CR party. And I don't want anybody misbehaving. No cement dumped down the drains or other tomfoolery. That wouldn't be fair as MR. Geithner is not only in over his head, he's underwater!
Regardless, after the party, I'll likely stop paying rent and squat until the sherrif gives me the boot. It's the eCONomy stupid!
Where's CSC?
Who's the Hotel Czar?
I find this predictable but sad..
‘Fierce Rally’ Under Way for Loan CDOs, Morgan Stanley Says
‘Fierce Rally’ Under Way for Leveraged Loan CDOs (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
By Pierre Paulden
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- A “remarkable change” in investor sentiment has doubled the price of some collateralized loan obligation securities in the past month, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
CLOs are a type of collateralized debt obligation that pool high-yield, high-risk, or junk, loans and slice them into securities of varying risk and return. Pieces graded AA, the third highest-level of investment grade, rose from 23 cents on the dollar to 47 cents in the past month, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Vishwanath Tirupattur wrote in a June 5 report. Securities ranked A have gained 13 cents from 10 cents since the end of last month, the report said.
This is utter make believe!
U.S. Will Let Some Banks Repay Aid
U.S. Will Let Some Banks Repay Aid
By Binyamin Appelbaum and David Cho
Monday, June 8, 2009
The Obama administration plans to announce as soon as today that some of the nation's largest banks can repay billions in federal aid, but some officials caution that the show of progress is being underwritten by multiple layers of less visible government support.
Through cheap loans, debt guarantees and a promise that big banks will not be allowed to fail, these officials say the government has created an artificial environment in which profits and stock prices have rebounded, helping banks in recent weeks to raise about $50 billion from private investor
Why is a rally in CDOs predictable, with PPIP not moving forward?
Hotels, and CDOs are just parts of the service economy.
For the life of me I can't see the way out of the downturn without an industrial base. How is QE supposed to jumpstart a service economy?
dont you believe it (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 10:10 am
-- You cannot repurpose hotel/motel properties --
Indeed you can. They could become nursing homes.
Mr.Sparkle (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 10:12 am
@Rob Dawg - DYBI is right - there was a more or less abandoned hotel here in Dallas along an expressway that was converted into an assisted/senior living establishment. There was anothr old office building closer to downtown that was similarly converted about 2 years ago.
No. I cannot speak to those anecdotes but Mrs. Dawg has her masters in Health Care Admin and actively manages a half dozen SoCal facilities. One of her specialities is configuring layout for service provision and safety. None of these hotel purposed structures come even close.
OT but just wanted say thanks to Rich if you are still out there. You made a couple of calls which I heeded. I took enough profit out to pay my tax bill this year. Now I just have to decide whether to take the rest off the table and into a CD or stay in glod paper.
Most humans are greedy suckers who cannot learn.
//Why is a rally in CDOs predictable, with PPIP not moving forward?//
I am in the market to buy a motel in california but they have not come down much so for. best you can find is 3.5 times multiples of gross income whereas in some other states you can get around 2X now.
What is the future of motel market in California?
I am looking for $2-3million market.
I'm no expert, but I'll that inland, along the I-5 corridor, it's going to shrink in on itself. There's no real "there" there -- nothing to pull additional business that I can see -- but there's a new Hampton Inn every few exits, or it seems so.
Along the coast -- I have no idea. I know that people are hurting locally; stumbled into a meet-and-greet for the hospitality industry by accident, and they're all battling higher vacancy rates with discounts, pushing back "high season rates" into June, and so on.
RD,
Yeah, ask the better half to speculate about nosocomial infection rates in a facility not designed to minimize same...yikes.
'Depressing' drop in hotel performance, not 'recessing.'
To be confirmed in six months.
I think the riots begin this summer, when welfare is cutoff here in California.
Anybody else have a sense/guess on timelines for unrest?
This is serious
SLM Corp Shares Gain Following Cramer Shout-Out
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com
BOOYAAH! Boom times are back!
Anybody else have a sense/guess on timelines for unrest?
Yes. It won't happen.
As for repurposing: SRO residence hotel conversion might work for some. Not in the new places along the freeway; they're too far out from city center for low income/working class people who may not have transport. I'm talking about the old, crappy ones along the old "business routes" through the city center. We have a couple of very old motels ('30s-style motor courts) that were converted to studios long before I got to town. So it's a possibility for the right location as long as the infrastructure mods aren't too extreme.
-- Yes. It won't happen.--
I dunno about that. I remember the riots in Detroit, vividly. It was scary.
energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 10:44 am
RD,
Yeah, ask the better half to speculate about nosocomial infection rates in a facility not designed to minimize same...yikes.
I understand what you are saying (correct) but for our silent readers; "How wide do the hallways need to be at minimum?" Or "How wide and how many exits are in the Physical Therapy Room?"
Now talk to me about AMP loading on the regular circuits. What? You ONLY have "regular" circuits?
Bob Dobbs,
thanks for your response. I agree with I-5 corridor is over crowded with motels. Problem is coastal areas, Mendocino to Santa Cruz is too expensive, 4-5X of gross revenues. seems like lake Tahoe and some other tourist areas in sierra foothills may be getting reasonable (3x or lower) in coming months.
Basel
?so does this mean that dilapidated motels are no longer going to be used as a backdoor green card?
Elaborate...
@Rob Dawg - right after I re-read my own comment and a couple others right there, it dawned on me that those facilities have a HUGE potential liability problem on their hands since if there were a fire, you've got a bunch of potentially less ambulatory folks trying to go down stairs. The first example I gave is probably 6-8 stories and if it's like other hotels I've been in, probably has 2-3 elevators and that's about it.
Also, this is Texas. Down here, we frown on regulation for things like "safety" and stuff like that. We're almost the opposite of Cali in many ways.
Anybody else have a sense/guess on time lines for unrest?
IMO it will start with the UE young people but it won't be organized unrest it will simply be increased crime. Home robbery, auto theft, drug activity etc. Maybe about a year off... we still have a lot of HOPE right now.
dum luk, my counsel to you: hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
Mr.Sparkle (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 10:51 am
@Rob Dawg - right after I re-read my own comment and a couple others right there, it dawned on me...
Exactly. No harm done. We all learn from each other. That said, I ain't goin' nowhere near a Texas v. Cali smackdown.
June 8 (Bloomberg) -- A “remarkable change” in investor sentiment has doubled the price of some collateralized loan obligation securities in the past month, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.
CLOs are a type of collateralized debt obligation that pool high-yield, high-risk, or junk, loans and slice them into securities of varying risk and return.
They should call them something like TWCs (Taxpayer Wealth Conduits).
@Rob Dawg - somewhere between Cali & Texas, there's a happy medium. (I'm not a native.)
Here's a link to the facility I was mentioning. If you just google it, you'll get a couple of reviews that mention how you can tell it was a converted hotel. I can't remember what the brand was. I want to say Radisson but maybe a Garden Suites... amazing how those details just slip away - and I used to drive by it every day for about 2 years!
Windsor Senior Living
An Alzheimer's-focussed facility, no less!
-- it dawned on me that those facilities have a HUGE potential liability problem --
Here in Switzerland we have overcome the problem of Idiot Proofing the building by employing only competent care providers. Its quite simple and goes to the topic of several discussions hence "Does Education Pay?".
ac, I just did a loan mod via Saxon (aka MS), they are swamped with mods and the wait time just to speak to someone is about a half an hour. I wonder if this explains their "bullishness"?
Bob Dobbs,
thanks for your response. I agree with I-5 corridor is over crowded with motels. Problem is coastal areas, Mendocino to Santa Cruz is too expensive, 4-5X of gross revenues. seems like lake Tahoe and some other tourist areas in sierra foothills may be getting reasonable (3x or lower) in coming months.
Be wary up Tahoe way. There is so much competition from vacation rental homes, especially in ski season.
I live in Santa Cruz; we have a lot of motels, largely of lower quality. Some new ones are coming online, like a Holiday Inn Express, but room rates are so high. This is a budget-traveler area; many of our multi-day visitors come from the lower-income San Joaquin Valley, not the high income SF Bay area. A high proportion of Bay Area visitors are day trippers.
A high-end B&B I stayed at locally (for a high-end "staycation") extended its off-season rates well-into June, so that should tell you something; they keep sending me emails. They're part of a ten-inn chain with locations from Half Moon Bay down to Carmel. The discounts apply to any of them.
BR on trucking and trains:
American Trucking Association Tonnage Index | The Big Picture
This data might make for some interesting graphs, CR.
People here in the US often aren't willing to spend time, effort, or money to get competent people.
NateTG (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 11:05 am
People here in the US often aren't willing to spend time, effort, or money to get competent people.
People here in the US often are willing to spend time, effort, or money to avoid hiring competent people.
There. Corrected that for you.
Found it... was the "Sheraton Park Central". If you do a google street search, it's actually at 7768 LBJ Freeway instead of the 7750 address that it states on the site. The photo looks like about mid-conversion status.
yuan's link is worth posting...
American Truckers Association chief economist, Bob Costello:
“While most key economic indicators are decreasing at a slower rate, the year-over-year contractions in truck tonnage accelerated because businesses are right-sizing their inventories, which means fewer truck shipments,” Costello said. “The absolute dollar value of inventories has fallen, but sales have decreased as much or more, which means that inventories are still too high for the current level of sales. Until this correction is complete, freight will be tough for motor carriers.”
The rails are no better. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reports:
“U.S. rail carload traffic in May 2009 fell 24.7 percent”, the worst y/y % decline of the recession. People that believe commodities are soaring because the economy has turned the corner should note that “U.S. rail carloadings fell in May 2009 in all 19 major commodity groups tracked by the AAR, including coal (down 89,134 carloads, or 15.8 percent); motor vehicles and equipment (down 35,674 carloads, or 52.3 percent); and metals and metal products (down 33,987 carloads, or 62.7 percent). Carloads of chemicals were down 23,147 carloads (18.3 percent) and carloads of grain were down 21,910 carloads (24.5 percent).”
For just the week ended May 30, the AAR reported the following totals for U.S. railroads: 233,195 carloads, down 26.3 percent from the corresponding week in 2008; intermodal volume of 164,916 trailers and containers, down 19.2 percent; and total volume of an estimated 24.8 billion ton-miles, down 25.1 percent from the equivalent week last year.
-- People here in the US often aren't willing to spend time, effort, or money to get competent people. --
How's that working out?
It's why I left the States.
Here is some red meat for you Rob Dawg:
Think twice about 'green' transport, say scientists
PARIS (AFP) – You worry a lot about the environment and do everything you can to reduce your carbon footprint -- the emissions of greenhouse gases that drive dangerous climate change.
So you always prefer to take the train or the bus rather than a plane, and avoid using a car whenever you can, faithful to the belief that this inflicts less harm to the planet.
Well, there could be a nasty surprise in store for you, for taking public transport may not be as green as you automatically think, says a new US study.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
dont you believe it
Where did you go?
Nova/yuan and energy thanks for the link
-- Where did you go --
Zürich '98
How are the living expenses there?
"What is the future of motel market in California?
I am looking for $2-3million market."
......who would ever consider buying a hotel in THIS market? CRE is crashing, lodgers are scarce and getting more scarce, rates are plunging - the only upside will be that some might be new Section-8 Housing.
can anyone explain why the home builders are up today? I must be missing a green shoot
Alert: Geithner Testimony Tomorrow
Secretary Geithner testifies, before the Senate Appropriations Financial Services and General Government, Tuesday morning at 10:30 AM ET.
energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 11:12 am
... taking public transport may not be as green as you automatically think, says a new US study.
I posted similar analyses back in '96. There are notable exceptions such as hydro powered urban transit in the Nordic States but generally the total energy expenditure for most person transportation modes is roughly similar. I would also note that this is only because private transport modes are tasked with the most difficult and energy intensive jobs. In effect public transit only manages to get comparable to private transport because of cherry picking and also depending upon a support structure reliant upon the "less efficient" POV segment for ongoing operations.
tim:
many people of south asian ethnicities (e.g. indian, pakastani, etc) purchased hotels and motels, especially in distressed areas, to qualify for the investor visa.
American Immigration Law Areas of Practice
Secretary Geithner testifies, before the Senate Appropriations Financial Services and General Government, Tuesday morning at 10:30 AM ET.
Testify? Yeah, right. Geithner will be more evasive than a greased hog.
-- How are the living expenses there? --
Same as everywhere.
Rob Dawg,
Good points on public vs private modes of transportation. I add that given our current tax laws, public transportation investments enrich banks at the expense of other taxable sources. The increase in real estate values due to public investment always leads to higher borrowing against property so as to reduce taxable income.
We can no longer keep taxing wages/labor for the benefit of finance.
"Secretary Geithner testifies, before the Se........."
......I can't listen to the man anymore - he runs me straight up the nearest wall. Reminds me of a tall-talin' ten-year old....
Once upon a time it was mentioned here that disruptions in supply chains would be an indicator of further disruptions.
We are getting 2 bathrooms gutted and redone. The contractor just sent me an email letting me know that he has been getting a lot of items arriving damaged or they are out of stock and shipment is taking a lot longer than it used too.
Nova, here's a notification I recently received from our manufacturer in China. May be nothing.
Dear All,
As informed by PVC material manufacturer that Dinch would be used as the plasticizer of NP-PVC instead of Mesamoll due to lack supply of Mesamoll, the price was kept no change. Enclosed please find the technical data sheet & lab test report of Dinch for your reference.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 11:26 am
Rob Dawg,
Good points on public vs private modes of transportation. I add that given our current tax laws, public transportation investments enrich banks at the expense of other taxable sources. The increase in real estate values due to public investment always leads to higher borrowing against property so as to reduce taxable income.
We can no longer keep taxing wages/labor for the benefit of finance.
Heck, Transit Oriented Development these days also receives direct overt government subsidies. Double anti-mobility incentives.
"What is the future of motel market in California?
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave.
ah, the lesser-known, but just as good song "Motel California" by the B-Eagles
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 11:27 am
Once upon a time it was mentioned here that disruptions in supply chains would be an indicator of further disruptions.
We are getting 2 bathrooms gutted and redone. The contractor just sent me an email letting me know that he has been getting a lot of items arriving damaged or they are out of stock and shipment is taking a lot longer than it used too.
Yup. The long chain is breaking. I have frakin marble in my kid's bathroom. I have frakin' marble in the tool shed. Cheaper than formica in 2007. The very idea of mining, manufacturing and delivering a 300lb slab 8000 miles for $230 is insane.
The very idea of mining, manufacturing and delivering a 300lb slab 8000 miles for $230 is insane.
The Magical Hand at work.
The concept of sending all jobs overseas and retaining a tax base is equally insane.
Colonialism without the revenue.
Fun.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 11:37 am
reply ignore user
The very idea of mining, manufacturing and delivering a 300lb slab 8000 miles for $230 is insane.
The Magical Hand at work.
How much is that #2 pencil again?
Seriously, I wasn't talking economies of scale but actual costs. The price of the blade wear, the polishing dust, the joules, and I still don't get $230.
RD said The very idea of mining, manufacturing and delivering a 300lb slab 8000 miles for $230 is insane.
Around 2005 I saw iron manholes used in DC and satamped "Made in India." That is when it began to dawn on me that world maybe getting a little wacky
@RD
I think the same thing when I see a box of pears from New Zealand sitting at the grocery
-- manholes used in DC and satamped "Made in India." --
That's what they say in Bend, Oregon too!
Edit: But in Oregon they are cast.
At least produce has the whole 'different season in the other hemisphere' thing going for it.
Tool of the Fed
I have been thinking that for awhile. We buy Chilean cheese for $3.39 or something ridiculous -
Some day we will tell our uncaring grandkids "I remember when food was available from all over the world. We had tomatoes in December from NZ."
Their reply "Thats nice Grandpa. Why do we only get goat now?"
"I think the same thing when I see a box of pears from New Zealand sitting at the grocery "
Or apples from NZ. Or grapes from Chile, tomatoes from the Netherlands (hothouse grown), oranges from Australia; there's food out there that's much better-traveled than I am. Not to mention "live-pack" high-end seafood that comes from half a world away by air to end up on the menu at the better restaurants.
Nova you write such apocalyptic stuff yet you are remodeling your bathrooms? I would think you would be looking for a building site out here in Bunkerland....
Basel
That's what I thought you meant. I was told that by someone from Pakistan. He told me that about dozen or family members/friends pooled their money together to send one family member over to buy a motel. Found out it is fairly but never heard anyone else talk about it. Thanks for the response.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Apple is cutting prices. Not that I will be buying. Imo, most of the new "features" are just aggravation. Satisficers vs. maximizers.
A brief comparison of the movie 'UP" to real estate reality.
Just saw the new Pixar movie - Wall Street Examiner Forums
I saw the new Pixar movie Up last weekend. I found the metaphor kind of striking, though I'm sure the producers had no such metaphor intended.
An elderly widower spends most of the film umbilically lashed (via garden hose) to his over-inflated, dilapidated home, trying to bring it to a gentle landing atop an extremely high plateau while spending much of the film wandering through a harsh, unforgiving landscape battling various critters with an unwanted kid in tow. Eventually he succeeds, momentarily, only to have to dump all his treasured belongings from the house in order to levitate it once more. However, in the end he is forced to cut the house loose, watching it rapidly lose altitude as it sinks beneath the clouds for good
ShadowInventory
because I am married
Tool of the Fed (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 11:42 am
@RD - I think the same thing when I see a box of pears from New Zealand sitting at the grocery
Equally weird happens all the time. My eldest is at UCLA about 40 minutes directly east of where we live. We joined her for dinner last night and the big buzz was fresh strawberries with a 20 person line waiting for a serving. Understand. Where we live, 40 minutes to the west of campus, we have strawberry fields growing nearby on 6 of the 8 compass points. Long lines are very fragile but for efficiency everything is being channelled into long lines. The opposite of robust. Walmart is my prediction for the big loser in this great shortening.
"The contractor just sent me an email letting me know that he has been getting a lot of items arriving damaged or they are out of stock and shipment is taking a lot longer than it used too."
Try and get men's cotton cargo pants, 28-29 inch waist. Maybe in Japan.
My prediction is WalMart gets killed and comes back as a Woolworths
More good news. The 10 yr is under pressure - again!
We're gonna to need a bigger quantitative (dis)easing (and more fuel efficient cars - d'oh!)
pavel.chichikov
SHop the young mens side.
because I am married - Ah - that explains both the bathrooms and the apocalypse...
Good plumbing will come in handy when the hordes are running amok in the streets...
"pavel.chichikov
SHop the young mens side."
I've tried. Out of stock.
You will have to put a sign on the front door - Bathrooms for Bandos Only !!!
Pavel,
This is Amerika. Eat more.
marble in my kid's bathroom
Your kid has a bathroom? Well back in my day...
Try and get men's cotton cargo pants, 28-29 inch waist.
most american adult males are a little too big, so dept stores don't carry that size. young mens or banana republic.
"because I am married - Ah - that explains both the bathrooms and the apocalypse..."
Will there be no need for bathrooms during the apocalypse? I should think just about everyone would be taken short.
"Try and get men's cotton cargo pants, 28-29 inch waist."
.....try your local Salvation Army - I get all my long-legged trousers there.
To be decided today by 1pm PT. (to be either heard or ignored) :
"As an economic matter ... blocking the transaction [of the Chrysler bankruptcy] would undoubtedly have grave consequences," [U.S. Solicitor General Elena] Kagan wrote.
"banana republic."
Thanks, will try.
Apparently not only will there be a need but color coordination is also very important.
high-end food, I can understand (e.g. a primo tuna that gets x-thousand $, is flash-freezed and on the way to Japan within hours of catch)
but an apple? it would cost an estimated $800 for a 1-way ticket from NZ to US. OK, I understand that I need a little more O2 and
some heat, but the shipping cost alone is what makes me wonder
"try your local Salvation Army - I get all my long-legged trousers there."
Thanks, Black Star.
"Pavel,
This is Amerika. Eat more."
Mein Gott, how much can I eat? I get funny looks from waiters when I leave half the food on the plate. "No thank you, I do not need to have this boxed."
Dead Shtick (profile) wrote on Mon, 6/8/2009 - 11:55 am
marble in my kid's bathroom
Your kid has a bathroom? Well back in my day...
My kidS have bathroomS. Are you insane? 19, 15 and 9 all girls. 3 bathrooms, four females equals dad hopping from foot to foot.
P.S. Cheaper than therapy.
From Zero Hedge:
Zero Hedge: 30 Year Mortgage Passes 5%
...the year-over-year contractions in truck tonnage accelerated because businesses are right-sizing their inventories, which means fewer truck shipments,” Costello said.
WMT is eliminating inventory: asked the local WMT assistant manager about several empty shelfspaces throughout the store and he explained that they are going to "truck-to-shelf" stocking, bypassing each store's inventory storage process. New meaning for JIT delivery, but with no depth any buyer's rush could produce the old G.U.M. look: large store, empty shelves.
All that produce comes over in climate controlled ships. That's the relatively cheap part. The part that amazes me is once it gets to a US dock, all labor is at our rates. That's where the costs add up in a hurry.
Next winter's produce might be a bit higher as Argentina's govt is forcibly cutting exports.
duplicate
I've had that sense lately of waiting on the 2nd tower to fall. Creepy, but you can't look away.
30year mortgages > 5%.
......3-girls and Mom - Geeze......talk about no votes for anything Dad wants. Gud Luk - bin there, dun that.
hey are going to "truck-to-shelf" stocking,
Empty container to empty truck to empty shelf, with empty revenue and empty sales tax.
It's the ultimate illusionary economy!
peAK,
but with no depth any buyer's rush could produce the old G.U.M. look: large store, empty shelves.
That is why tucking away a few extra supplies is a good idea...just for what a hurricane can do to the oil/gas pipelines...
Not sure what just happened there.
All that produce comes over in climate controled ships. That's the cheap part. Once it arrives at a US dock, it's on our labor rates. That's the part that amazes me. There's alot of handling there.
The Argentine govt has forcibly cut exports, so prices might be a bit higher next winter.
Try and get men's cotton cargo pants, 28-29 inch waist. Maybe in Japan.
====
Pavel I ordered two more pair of cotton Chinos from land's end a few weeks ago, no problem on delivery time.
edited to add: Land's end is having a 30% off / free shipping pretty much constantly; their discount codes are the only spam that's worth getting.
I would also note that this is only because private transport modes are tasked with the most difficult and energy intensive jobs. In effect public transit only manages to get comparable to private transport because of cherry picking and also depending upon a support structure reliant upon the "less efficient" POV segment for ongoing operations.
Translation: always choose the right tool for the job. Transportation is no different.
OMFG! This market action is beyond stupid, now.
My kidS have bathroomS. Are you insane? 19, 15 and 9 all girls. 3 bathrooms, four females equals dad hopping from foot to foot.
WTH Dawg - don't you have an outside? Take 'the dog' for a walk...
WTH Dawg - don't you have an outside? Take 'the dog' for a walk...\
I'm on septic. Nuff said?
Who cares about double digits unemployment as long as Goldman, Bank of Amerika, Google, Rimm, and Apple are making record profits. Employment is waaaay overrated. Who needs jobs as long as the stock market keeps going up? Lets just keep buying stocks. As long as the new world order can solidly thier power and the middle class dissolves, all will be well. yay I love jobless recoveries and 4 dollar gas.
good read, folks interesting finance articles
The article, "Hotel Recession Reaches 19 months" is quite informative. For those travelers going to certain cities could get reduced hotel rates and save money.
My website is [url] ITISTIMETOTALK.COM [/url]
Thank you for sharing this data.