what explains the 2003 high? I know a change in the law in '06 was the cause of that spike....
aren't we comparing apples to oranges a bit, let's say we walk back the cat to the previous BK law,
wonder what the numbers would look like then, guesses?
The previous CR post is about banks that somehow are able to pay back billions of bucks even tho it is likely, IMHO, that they are insolvent. The next post is about hundreds of thousands of Joe and Jane Six-Packs filing for bankruptcy every month.
from '96 to 2005, a year before the new BK law looks like about 380K a year.... after 2006 around 225K Bks.... just eyeballing it....
looks like to me if the old BK law was in place you add in 175K on top of that proj 380K... anyone have a better read?
Now that i'm feeling nostalgic for a war that happened well before the existence of me, I often wonder how the average information hungry person like myself would have glimpsed WW2 in real-time as it was happening?
Everything was censored, victories hailed-losses forgotten.
You might say the USA entered the war at the end of the 1st of 3 periods, down 24-0...
Duke of Con Dao (profile) wrote on Sat, 6/6/2009 - 5:51 am
what explains the 2003 high? I know a change in the law in '06 was the cause of that spike....
aren't we comparing apples to oranges a bit, let's say we walk back the cat to the previous BK law,
wonder what the numbers would look like then, guesses?
Two things, it seems the personal BK peak generally would lag a recession by a year or two (no link -- no data! but looking). Just due to the inertia of the components.
If you cut 'n paste the new bankruptcy curve on the old one (skipping discontinuous segments) we'd be something like 2x higher than now (the Big Thumb method of interpolation). I know it's not comparable but that would be 600k or 700k per quarter.
I know someone now teetering on the edge now. There are often serious family and personal issues (like where to live) that go along with bankruptcy. The idea of 700,000 people entering that state every quarter gives me chills.
I hear from a good source that the King of Thailand is in worse shape than reported, and that people around him are consolidating their
power bases... think von Hindenberg in the last few years of his life...
any chance of the BK law being modified soon to placate an angry electorate?
the Senate struck down the principal mortgage lien-stripping amendment. I'm thinking that the student loan provisions will definitely be next on the docket.
The newsreaders of Los Angeles television stations have some pact with the devil, or just a long-term relationship with their plastic surgeon, because they all look the same as they did when I saw them 25 years ago reading from the teleprompter~
I don't believe GLD and SLV are the only option... in fact I've diversified from GLD and SLV into GTU and CEF. Those seem at least a little more "safe paper" than GLD and SLV are; from what I've read. Don't know anything about IAU. I also diversified from GLD and SLV into GDX and SLW (yes, the leveraged play)... although those are going to hit their stops soon.
Like another poster I'm pondering how to play these commodity holdings in the next downleg. GDX and SLW are nearly at the stops I've set for them; however the market hasn't started to reflect my equity return expectations yet. I suppose I can jump right back into TBT but I also expect some dollar strenthening during the next Black Swan event. Or perhaps we will skip some horrible deflation and go right through into hyper inflation?
I said it when Macke went all nuts and I'll say it again, we are all Macke now. I do expect some of the Ultrashort ETFs to go nuts; but SRS could quadrouple from 10 to 40; 5 to 20; or 3 to 12. However, what's the timing. It certainly feels like BSS (Black Swan Sunday) is coming again... but we were there for the longest time...
YLSP interesting about GDX and SLW, there must be significant tax issues or something, their charts don't make sense to me. But need to look more. A Canadian Trust. I trust Canadians.
I have been looking at JJG and related. When USO spikes I will sell the last of my long positions in ETFs and will probably never again stay in one for more than a week. OK, maybe a couple of months for GLD and SLV. And tight stops and a low tolerance for losing money.
So this is it, my investment plan which was buy and hold some years ago has evolved into constant street battles and sniping and scoping out financial positions in fourth generation financial warfare. Thanks so much Wall Street for making my retirement enjoyable! (Snarkasm).
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Sat, 6/6/2009 - 6:24 am
Lots of Hispanic Jesus's out there for sure, but i've never met a wasp-y Jesus...
Why's that?
lien-stripping is the proper term for what most call principal mortgage "cramdown" (which means something entirely different in a chapter 11 re-org).
Currently, with the exception of primary residence mortgage, all secured loans are bifurcated in BK into a secured part equal to the FMV of the collateral and an unsecured claim for the underwater portion. So if your mortgage is 400K and the FMV is 300K, you would owe $300K on the mortgage and the $100K would get thrown into the residual unsecured claims pool.
I've been eyeing Suntrust and Cors... Cors had a magnificent spike... and Suntrust went up 20%. These horrible banks might not be bad if you can "time" a good entry and get out quick...
Indeed... a nice awy to maintain capital. I think the rule of thumb is "always be in performing assets". I like how we can do that with etfs and such; however, it takes nimbility...
In other words; some people lock into assets (house, business, etc)... in this market it seems like a bad use of capital as those assets can go downhill fast.
I turned off all of my 401(k) contributions in order to make sure my balance sheet is really strong from here on out. What's the point of having money I can't touch for 20+ years... and that money has limited options (only stocks and govt bonds!). I think it's better to self-manage my money from here on out; tax benefits and employer matching be damned (I'm sure employer matching will go away in 5 years anyway)...
Everything in blue was created by Obama's economic team.
For me, that chat is a wonderful summary of the Obama administration's economic policy. Lots of optimistic predictions with little attention to reality.
All vices but one the young imitate of their own free will; avarice alone is enjoined on them against the grain. For that vice has a deceptive appearance and semblance of virtue, being gloomy of mien, severe in face and garb.
Curious:
I'm sure that chart was put together by someone like the guy who was "running the numbers" on Chrysler. You know, political staffer, nearly a graduate of business school, went to work for the campaign... "Hey, let me play with these curves... this looks about right".
You complain, do you, that by an impious fraud you have been robbed of ten thousand sesterces? What if someone else has by a like fraud lost a secret deposit of two hundred thousand sesterces? A third a still greater sum, which could scarce find room in the corners of his ample treasure-chest? So simple and easy a thing is it to disregard heavenly witnesses, if no mortal man is privy to the secret! Hear how loudly the fellow denies the charge! See the assurance of his perfidious face! He swears by the rays of the sun and the Tarpeian thunderbolts; by the lance of Mars and the arrows of the Cirrhaean Seer; by the shafts and quiver of the maiden huntress, and by thine own trident, O Neptune, thou lord of the Aegaean sea. He throws in besides the bow of Hercules, and Minerva's spear, and all the weapons contained in all the armouries of Heaven; if he be a father, "May I eat," he tearfully declares, "my own son's head boiled, and dripping with Egyptian vinegar!"
I was gone for most of the week from here but I caught a little bit of Bernanke's testimony (anyone know where I can get a Q&A transcript?).
There was one lady who was making Ben shake... I don't know who she was but the sharpened arrowheads she was asking him were making me pay attention. She started out talking about the NY Fed... and asking him some yes and no questions. I believe she was asking about Larry Summer's connections to Blackrock. Additionally she asked for a number of data "for the record". I'd really like to see what he has to provide back to him.
Squirming starts around 2:00... I'm not even sure I was able to watch the whole thing in my hotel room pre-work. Additionally CNBC cut it off...
Long ago pigged, but the flatware collectors 2 threads down.
Had something physical and valuable in his hands. He didn't waste money on bling.
The flatware may be valuable to people who like that stuff. If he by chance picked up something
that is and stays collectable, it may be worth more than the physical silver.
I have some inherited sterling silver flatware. It gets used once in a while, but not too often,
because my son can taste the silver and doesn't like it and prefers tasteless stainless steel.
Funny how the bankruptcy rate isn't going up as fast as foreclosures or home defaults. Guess that means that consumer credit underwriting standards didn't deteriorate as much as mortgages.
CARSON CITY, Nev. (AP) -- Nevada casinos won $859.4 million from gamblers in April, down 14.1 percent compared with their April 2008 win, according to a state report Friday.
The Gaming Control Board reported that the win, down from $1 billion a year earlier, marked the 16th month in a row that the clubs reported declines.
In northern Nevada, clubs in Washoe County, which takes in Reno, were down 16 percent. It was the 22nd consecutive month of declines for the area.
Resorts on Lake Tahoe's south shore reported a 35.4 percent decrease in April compared with the same month a year earlier.
A statewide game-by-game breakdown shows that slots were off 11.2 percent while table games were down 20.5 percent compared with April 2008.
Consumers these days are "debt diversified." A modern day consumer bankruptcy isn't the house, car, visa and a couple store cards. We've got 401k withdrawals, Helocs on top of 2nd liens, multiple unsecured credit cards, etc. Then there's assets and their allocation. The collateral damage is going to extend far beyond previous impact zones.
Comrade Short Bucky (profile) wrote on Sat, 6/6/2009 - 7:07 am
''Funny how the bankruptcy rate isn't going up as fast as foreclosures or home defaults.''
Maybe people aren't even bothering to declare BK. I hear that going thru BK court is an onerous and expensive task these days.
A lawyer buddy who does bk sez people can't afford to file anymore.
And really, you can't get blood out of a stone anyway.
Another firm that was down the hall before Miami-Dade College kicked me out was going great guns
as of the beginning of Jan, but I haven't heard anything about them recently.
Toyota, Nissan, and Honda are likely to be smiling today. Not because of the GM bankruptcy. It would definitely be un-Japanese to gloat.
They're smiling because the U.S. government thinks all it has to do is follow the management guidance of the White House auto team, give GM lots of money, fire the CEO, get labor concessions, set fuel efficiency standards, urge the company to create hybrids, and competitiveness will be magically restored.
According to The New York Times, this miracle will be wrought by a 31-year-old; a very bright young man who has never set foot in an auto plant, has never run a manufacturing business, and is advising the already laughable "auto rescue team" about running a competitive auto company in a market where Toyota is already whipping their body parts!!!
I started to laugh because I thought this was part of the Jay Leno farewell skit. No one could make this up!
* 600,000 new startups
the number of startups that can be funded.
(total money - admin cost) / cost per startup = ($40B - $10B) / $50,000
* 1,020,000 people
employed by the startups.
avg. # of employees x total startups = 1.7 x 600,000
* 125,000 people
# of people employed by GM.artups = 1.7 x 600,000
* 125,000 people
# of people employed by GM.
There we have it folks.....Obama is all 'shuck and jive' when it comes to REAL hope and change !
'Funny how the bankruptcy rate isn't going up as fast as foreclosures or home defaults.
In non-recourse states, which include CA, FL, AZ, a mortgage borrower can simply return the house back to the lender and walk away from further payments (jingle mail). The lender will have to foreclose on the house, while the borrower does not have to declare BK.
I mean, bk eliminates annoying phone calls from creditors. . .
But you can change your phone number, right?
After a while after bk, you can get credit again. Maybe. I think.
But is that a good idea for people who have proved they can't handle
credit in the first place?
You can stretch out your foreclosure.
But maybe not necessary in Fla now that the filing fee in Miami-Dade has more than
well, what's the wordfor going up 10x?, and and octupled or more in the
other counties?
Florida is NOT a non recourse state. Deficiency judgements are, and always have been
a matter of RIGHT. Lenders simply never ask for them on house deficiencies; including those
who always ask for them for, say, car loans. Why? Dunno? Publicity? Uselessness? Too
stupid?
Isn't the rule of thumb that if you want more of something, subsidize it and you want less of
something, tax it? Gosh the foreclosure rate should plumment. Maybe the lenders will start
cramming themselves down.
It occured to me as I drank my coffee and looked out the window at my plants growing amok because of all the rain that there was a momenteous change in Western Civilization in the last few generations. For the first time, the population that is childbearing age had decided that their needs are more important then their childrens. They must be fullfilled. They can not sacrifice in hopes that the next generation will be better off.
You guys need to stop worrying about credit scores and credit after bk..as long as you have a job, carried one card thru and paid some installments before you can get an auto loan today courtesy of your government owned and sponsered GMAC entity...
For the first time, the population that is childbearing age had decided that their needs are more important then their childrens. They must be fullfilled. They can not sacrifice in hopes that the next generation will be better off.
I don't know if i've mentioned this in the past, but this year, my dad turns 65 and will have health insurance (Medicare) for the first time in his life. But he's never not had a life insurance policy.
Nice to see a real American buy Saturn. Where are the rest of the Big Buck Boys?
Here is an example of Government Motors being used for political reasons instead of management having a free hand to become lean, mean and truly competitive.
The biggest change for me-Rip Van Juvenal, has been the complete acceptance of women into all things, especially the workplace. This exacerbated the tendency not to have children even more so.
JD, you do not think that a significant percentage of the population, especially those that could afford it, chose to limit the amount of children they had in order to maximize their personal lifestyle?
My Father went from Normandy to Germany the hard way. He was not at the landing, a different wave. He used to tell me about the hedgerows. We were by St. Michel and I asked about them as I didn't see any. The guide said a lot had been flattened in the 1960's to improve agriculture.
"It occured to me as I drank my coffee and looked out the window at my plants growing amok because of all the rain that there was a momenteous change in Western Civilization in the last few generations. For the first time, the population that is childbearing age had decided that their needs are more important then their childrens. They must be fullfilled. They can not sacrifice in hopes that the next generation will be better off."
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 6/6/2009 - 7:26 am
It occured to me as I drank my coffee ... They can not sacrifice in hopes that the next generation will be better off.
We'll have it forced on us then. I think as an end-of-cohort boomer I will be forced to see the dismantling of the fossil empire, and will not enjoy it. Like a lot of kids I was hoping to be an astronaut, in 1964.
You make it more pleasant for us to have kids and we will have more of 'em.
I am happy to have had 2 and wanted a third, which never happened.
My secy just had her third. Mostly her hub's idea. He isn't helping with the kid.
This is causing increasing fighting and tension. I think she'd rather be at work
with me (and I can be a pain) than home. he thinks she should just be around
on weekends to watch the kids, while he goes where he wants.
This is very common.
My impression is this more common than not.
We are require to take on more responsibility. We don't get paid for it. We just
get complained about. What ever we do isn't good enough as per the kids.
And then,some kids, after all that work, turn out rotten.
And then, after all that work, we aren't pretty enough anymore. Our wrinkles
aren't honorable battle scars, they are just proof of uselessness. Metaphors
like "jabbering like an old woman" are used without any thought at all.
Now I'm going to make crepes with the hub of 42 years, who isn't like that at
all.
Most of my friends are in their late 30's-early 40's, and there has been a profound baby boom, the latest is a 39 year old friend expecting twins, her first children.
They say the older you have kids, the smarter they are. I guess i'll found out?
I must know 15 kids aged 6 months to 7 years that fit the profile.
Kids are expensive and an incredible time suck.Many people I know looked at the costs and the state of the world and said no.Others looked at their future and said " I can give one a decent chance,I'll stop there".I had one,late,and am enjoying being a dad.Our Society is a tad dysfunctional as some here have noted,and raising kids is not a small undertaking in the best of times.Unlike the past,that extra pair of hands takes a very long time to contribute to the support of the family unit,we do not live on farms for the mos part any longer.
WWII...who gives a shit anymore. Except Americans grandstanding and circle-jerking around it over and over again. Normandy was not even somehow brilliantly executed or planned attack, more like lucky clusterfuck, win by sheer numbers of troops coming in. Germans shot Allied troops like ducks in the barrel until the ducks overwhelmed the guns.
Everything after Normandy were also lousily planned by the Allies because British and American generals were more concerned who gets to be the Big Man and gets all that honour. Unnecessarily wasting troops with stupid plans and movements or not attacking when they should have because victory was not "certain". Germans put up quite a fight even with far more inferior army by that point.
This is 21st century and we are facing decades of huge challenges globally. Give the grandpas or grandgrandpas their medals and move on.
Children are a nuisance to life, sucking up resources; at the same time they are a great blessing, and a joy.
We've got two and I know that is as much as we can handle. My wife would rather work than be at home with the kids all day (sometimes, I'd gladly switch places). Plus it seems like there are very few decent jobs that a) don't require 60+ hours at work or b) don't require travel (and really that travel becomes the 60+ hours work-week). If we had a third I know we would kill each other. I tell people we are on the tie, the snip, both male and female pills, and on top of that proper condom use... but the joke is two young children is the most natural of birth controls...
My wife is older than me, had our first when I was nearly 25 and second when I was nearly 28. I know why people wait because of the whole job security thing and money thing. But I'd rather have kids when I'm younger so I'm not chasing after then with a cane when I'm 50-60 years old. Additionally it never made sense to me to delay the whole family life if that's what you really wanted. I'd say we are a happy couple; of course somewhat dysfunctional, I think any family with kids younger than 5 by definition is going to be a little crazy (and when the teenage years come, a lot crazy).
It is a big problem; not valuing the younger generations, not valuing young families. Now maybe we have some artifacts in our life such as no support from our parents that make things alot challenging. Her parents we've probably given more "support" to than they have given us (they are barely head above water) and my dad is enjoying his "new found" (three years) widow/bachelorhood. It sucks raising a family in a vacuum like this... but hey, that's life. It's not like more and more families aren't trying to do it.
"The Forgotten Solider" is a glimpse into another D-Day on the frozen steppes or sinkable mud of the eastern front, from the loser's perspective of an Alsatian Frenchman who volunteered for the wehrmacht. His D-Day went on for about 3 years. (or maybe not, some claim it's fiction)
Without the Russians taking enormous casualties, the Germans squash us like so many little pimples on the beaches of Normandy today, 65 years ago.
Germans: We (our generation) were not there.
Jews (especially some Israelis): HOLOCAUST! HOLOCAUST! Give me money and guns! Palestinians are out to get us!
Poles: Too busy fixing the houses or pipes of Europe to earn money.
Other Slavs: Too busy fixing their own house.
Russians: A little bit grandstanding there but also too busy fixing their own house and selling oil.
In many Asian cultures, offspring are the only safety net, so that parents have an actual stake in the well-being on the next generation. As opposed to the NY pension deal that was worked out yesterday...
Large American families disappeared with Farm evolution. The need for more labor was replaced by machines and people move to cities. The model of society was two for two replacement and not over populate.
"The Gaming Control Board reported that the win, down from $1 billion a year earlier, marked the 16th month in a row that the clubs reported declines."
.....yeah....factor in bars that have been ALREADY approved for existing gaming have to wait an additional 8-months to add another establishment for slots. What takes 8-months for a signature? The right palms weren't greased this time is only difference. Who says The Mob hasn't just moved their address to Carson City now.
Was Normandy necessary? Did it speed up the war's conclusion? As a Jew, I know it didn't speed up the destruction of the rail lines to the death camps.
"I hear that going thru BK court is an onerous and expensive task these days."
Not really. If you means test for Ch 7, all your debts get wiped out, but they can't touch your retirement accounts. Of course if you include your home and car, you will lose them. 25 page questionaire, $50 education course, $400 filing fee( + atty fees), a court date, and youre done.
When I first started traveling in the UK in the early 1980's, there was still quite a bit of coverage of WW1 vets in the papers and I could see how profoundly changed a country the war must have made it after hostilities ended. Now nearly 30 years later just a handful of WW1 vets are living, and you never hear about them anymore.
Anybody high up enough to have been a decision-maker on a higher level in WW2 is dead now, or close to it. The bright-eyed bushy tailed buck private 18 year old g.i. that got in late in the game in 1945, is 82 years old this year...
I probably got pigged out, but I wanted to interject something into the discussion:
Back in late 2004 or early 2005 (I can't remember if it was right before or right after the BAPCPA law passed), I was talking to the US Trustee (Head Honcho) of the bankruptcy court. He told me that his superiors in Washington told him -- just based on the math -- that by 2012 they expected 25% of Americans to be, or to have been in bankruptcy. Now, my memory is a little faulty, so that number may be a little exaggerated (but only a little, if it is).
Everyone here is mentioning crazy mortgages and credit card debt, but that is not even remotely close to the major cause of bankruptcy, which is medical debt. A new study now shows 60% of bankruptcies are primarily caused by medical debt (up from 54%). I was on the front lines, and I can tell you that the report is accurate. Without a national healthcare program (single payer, single risk-pool), these numbers will continue to stay high. There simply is no other answer. But it is the one answer we are not talking about.
By the way, job loss and divorce were the #2 and #3 causes of bankruptcy when I was practicing. I suspect little has changed. Overuse of credit (borrowing more than you can afford to pay back) was way back at #4 (~5%).
Talking about people who borrow more than they can afford to pay back is fun for the kind of people who hang around these financial blogs and all, but it misses the real "big picture."
"Was Normandy necessary? Did it speed up the war's conclusion?"
Are you serious? Who do you think would "conclude" the war? Just wait for the Russians to fight their way to Berlin? Without pressure on the Western front, the Germans might have held out for years. What makes you think liberating the concentration camps would have been a priority for the Russians? That the rest of Europe was under the jackboot of the Germans seems to be of little interest to you.
Normandy was a tactic--there were other approaches from the west. Once we were in France, we, the allies, still neglected the rail lines to the concentration camps--which were not defended. Wars can always be Monday morning quarterbacked--and the motivation for decisions discussed--hindsight not only gives answers--it also asks better questions.
@Nova: You make a good point but I know many (like myself and my wife) who have tried everything the could (and spared no expense) to not only have their own children but to adopt without any luck. So I think you are over-generalizing a bit here.
The hardest thing I find about mid-life is managing boredom. If you've done thing relatively right there's no drama - bills are paid, job is secure, friendships are solid and acceptance (finally) sets in toward your spouse. Then what? Frankly I think that's the catalyst for many a mid-life baby.
And how do you propose, in hindshight, that we arrive in France? England was the staging area, where men and machines were massed, and extraordinary efforts were made to deny the Germans info on the numbers involved. The best German military minds guessed Calais, but Eisenhower chose the far rougher seas and the barrier cliffs at Normandy.
In the build-up to Normandy, In April and May 1944, the Allied air forces lost nearly 12,000 men and over 2,000 aircraft in operations which paved the way for D-Day.
During the battle itself, 16,714 allied air force were killed.
The best American general, Patton, felt the US was in danger of losing the war, and he was not put in play until after the landings. Until the Battle of Bastogne, and the rescue of the 101st by Patton's 3rd Army, the Germans held the upper hand, and almost pulled out a victory.
We're all bankrupt now!
Bleak is the new Black
A friend's daughter is a damned good lawyer and she's switched her practice over to the bk side, as there's no there there, on the other side.
Juvenal D is fast the becoming the Oscar Wilde of CR
that comic strip never gets old. Glorious.
Saw an interesting chart yesterday.
Unemployment rate with and without the stimulus package...
American people should feel pretty awesome about the accuracy of economists forecasting...
Wait, this is deflationary, right?
C
what explains the 2003 high? I know a change in the law in '06 was the cause of that spike....
aren't we comparing apples to oranges a bit, let's say we walk back the cat to the previous BK law,
wonder what the numbers would look like then, guesses?
Then: Omaha beach landing
Now: Omaha poker tournament
Seriously though, what's the lag and throughput rate here?
C
"Kids, listen up! Daddy had to put your pony to sleep but don't be so sad, we have a lot of food now!"
The previous CR post is about banks that somehow are able to pay back billions of bucks even tho it is likely, IMHO, that they are insolvent. The next post is about hundreds of thousands of Joe and Jane Six-Packs filing for bankruptcy every month.
And my rellies wonder why I am so cynical.
from '96 to 2005, a year before the new BK law looks like about 380K a year.... after 2006 around 225K Bks.... just eyeballing it....
looks like to me if the old BK law was in place you add in 175K on top of that proj 380K... anyone have a better read?
Now that i'm feeling nostalgic for a war that happened well before the existence of me, I often wonder how the average information hungry person like myself would have glimpsed WW2 in real-time as it was happening?
Everything was censored, victories hailed-losses forgotten.
You might say the USA entered the war at the end of the 1st of 3 periods, down 24-0...
Duke of Con Dao (profile) wrote on Sat, 6/6/2009 - 5:51 am
what explains the 2003 high? I know a change in the law in '06 was the cause of that spike....
aren't we comparing apples to oranges a bit, let's say we walk back the cat to the previous BK law,
wonder what the numbers would look like then, guesses?
Two things, it seems the personal BK peak generally would lag a recession by a year or two (no link -- no data! but looking). Just due to the inertia of the components.
If you cut 'n paste the new bankruptcy curve on the old one (skipping discontinuous segments) we'd be something like 2x higher than now (the Big Thumb method of interpolation). I know it's not comparable but that would be 600k or 700k per quarter.
I know someone now teetering on the edge now. There are often serious family and personal issues (like where to live) that go along with bankruptcy. The idea of 700,000 people entering that state every quarter gives me chills.
Duke, I think instead of addition/subtraction to correct the BK curve one should use scaling.
We halved the BK's with the new law so to (inaccurately but humorously and in the right direction) correct back to the previous numbers you multiply.
Eye-shaded shadowstats.
Aforementioned damned good lawyer told me that all the big-tent lawyer firms are suffering mightily, mostly from self-inflicted real estate wounds.
thanx Nervous.... which brings me to another point... any chance of the BK law being modified soon to placate an angry electorate?
on an OT/
I hear from a good source that the King of Thailand is in worse shape than reported, and that people around him are consolidating their
power bases... think von Hindenberg in the last few years of his life...
any chance of the BK law being modified soon to placate an angry electorate?
the Senate struck down the principal mortgage lien-stripping amendment. I'm thinking that the student loan provisions will definitely be next on the docket.
Duke,
I saw the picture of Dorian Gray last week...
The newsreaders of Los Angeles television stations have some pact with the devil, or just a long-term relationship with their plastic surgeon, because they all look the same as they did when I saw them 25 years ago reading from the teleprompter~
Caught the last thread re: GLD and SLV.
I don't believe GLD and SLV are the only option... in fact I've diversified from GLD and SLV into GTU and CEF. Those seem at least a little more "safe paper" than GLD and SLV are; from what I've read. Don't know anything about IAU. I also diversified from GLD and SLV into GDX and SLW (yes, the leveraged play)... although those are going to hit their stops soon.
Like another poster I'm pondering how to play these commodity holdings in the next downleg. GDX and SLW are nearly at the stops I've set for them; however the market hasn't started to reflect my equity return expectations yet. I suppose I can jump right back into TBT but I also expect some dollar strenthening during the next Black Swan event. Or perhaps we will skip some horrible deflation and go right through into hyper inflation?
I said it when Macke went all nuts and I'll say it again, we are all Macke now. I do expect some of the Ultrashort ETFs to go nuts; but SRS could quadrouple from 10 to 40; 5 to 20; or 3 to 12. However, what's the timing. It certainly feels like BSS (Black Swan Sunday) is coming again... but we were there for the longest time...
Basel... precisely how does this mortgage lien stripping work.... (so the Senate voted down a change to the 2005 BK law... yes?)
Crist almighty, in one bold move Charlie stopped foreclosures and raised revenue from the debt.
Duke of CD,
"precisely how does this mortgage lien stripping work"
The Senate voted down a proposal to allow bankruptcy court to modify the principal balance of a mortgage. Too bad, as it would have made some sense.
YLSP interesting about GDX and SLW, there must be significant tax issues or something, their charts don't make sense to me. But need to look more. A Canadian Trust. I trust Canadians.
I have been looking at JJG and related. When USO spikes I will sell the last of my long positions in ETFs and will probably never again stay in one for more than a week. OK, maybe a couple of months for GLD and SLV. And tight stops and a low tolerance for losing money.
So this is it, my investment plan which was buy and hold some years ago has evolved into constant street battles and sniping and scoping out financial positions in fourth generation financial warfare. Thanks so much Wall Street for making my retirement enjoyable! (Snarkasm).
Lots of Hispanic Jesus's out there for sure, but i've never met a wasp-y Jesus...
Why's that?
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Sat, 6/6/2009 - 6:24 am
Lots of Hispanic Jesus's out there for sure, but i've never met a wasp-y Jesus...
Why's that?
The rest of us are all Peters.
We come with our own Principles.
Wall*Street = 3-Letter-Monte house of cards
lien-stripping is the proper term for what most call principal mortgage "cramdown" (which means something entirely different in a chapter 11 re-org).
Currently, with the exception of primary residence mortgage, all secured loans are bifurcated in BK into a secured part equal to the FMV of the collateral and an unsecured claim for the underwater portion. So if your mortgage is 400K and the FMV is 300K, you would owe $300K on the mortgage and the $100K would get thrown into the residual unsecured claims pool.
I've been eyeing Suntrust and Cors... Cors had a magnificent spike... and Suntrust went up 20%. These horrible banks might not be bad if you can "time" a good entry and get out quick...
Indeed... a nice awy to maintain capital. I think the rule of thumb is "always be in performing assets". I like how we can do that with etfs and such; however, it takes nimbility...
In other words; some people lock into assets (house, business, etc)... in this market it seems like a bad use of capital as those assets can go downhill fast.
I turned off all of my 401(k) contributions in order to make sure my balance sheet is really strong from here on out. What's the point of having money I can't touch for 20+ years... and that money has limited options (only stocks and govt bonds!). I think it's better to self-manage my money from here on out; tax benefits and employer matching be damned (I'm sure employer matching will go away in 5 years anyway)...
Saw an interesting chart yesterday.
Everything in blue was created by Obama's economic team.
For me, that chat is a wonderful summary of the Obama administration's economic policy. Lots of optimistic predictions with little attention to reality.
typo edited--need some coffee
I'm going into loaning people money to file BK. I'll be offloading the risk....
All vices but one the young imitate of their own free will; avarice alone is enjoined on them against the grain. For that vice has a deceptive appearance and semblance of virtue, being gloomy of mien, severe in face and garb.
Juvenal Satire 14
Curious:
I'm sure that chart was put together by someone like the guy who was "running the numbers" on Chrysler. You know, political staffer, nearly a graduate of business school, went to work for the campaign... "Hey, let me play with these curves... this looks about right".
think of where we would be without the census hirings...
You complain, do you, that by an impious fraud you have been robbed of ten thousand sesterces? What if someone else has by a like fraud lost a secret deposit of two hundred thousand sesterces? A third a still greater sum, which could scarce find room in the corners of his ample treasure-chest? So simple and easy a thing is it to disregard heavenly witnesses, if no mortal man is privy to the secret! Hear how loudly the fellow denies the charge! See the assurance of his perfidious face! He swears by the rays of the sun and the Tarpeian thunderbolts; by the lance of Mars and the arrows of the Cirrhaean Seer; by the shafts and quiver of the maiden huntress, and by thine own trident, O Neptune, thou lord of the Aegaean sea. He throws in besides the bow of Hercules, and Minerva's spear, and all the weapons contained in all the armouries of Heaven; if he be a father, "May I eat," he tearfully declares, "my own son's head boiled, and dripping with Egyptian vinegar!"
Juvenal Satire 13
I was gone for most of the week from here but I caught a little bit of Bernanke's testimony (anyone know where I can get a Q&A transcript?).
There was one lady who was making Ben shake... I don't know who she was but the sharpened arrowheads she was asking him were making me pay attention. She started out talking about the NY Fed... and asking him some yes and no questions. I believe she was asking about Larry Summer's connections to Blackrock. Additionally she asked for a number of data "for the record". I'd really like to see what he has to provide back to him.
Squirming starts around 2:00... I'm not even sure I was able to watch the whole thing in my hotel room pre-work. Additionally CNBC cut it off...
Here it is courtesy of YouTube. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio...
YLSP, I could hand my boss just about any mathematically derived data and he'd be at a complete loss to evaluate it.
So why aren't you the boss, eh?
Because, like a lot of minions, I realize the gravity of the responsibility isn't worth the extra $$$$.
It's a burden I know
Benjamins closes his eyes somewhat in the midst of having to tell tall tales, it's his "Tell"
Long ago pigged, but the flatware collectors 2 threads down.
Had something physical and valuable in his hands. He didn't waste money on bling.
The flatware may be valuable to people who like that stuff. If he by chance picked up something
that is and stays collectable, it may be worth more than the physical silver.
I have some inherited sterling silver flatware. It gets used once in a while, but not too often,
because my son can taste the silver and doesn't like it and prefers tasteless stainless steel.
Funny how the bankruptcy rate isn't going up as fast as foreclosures or home defaults. Guess that means that consumer credit underwriting standards didn't deteriorate as much as mortgages.
No Green Shoots
seen in Nevada yet!
Nevada casino winnings down 14 percent in April
CARSON CITY, Nev. (AP) -- Nevada casinos won $859.4 million from gamblers in April, down 14.1 percent compared with their April 2008 win, according to a state report Friday.
The Gaming Control Board reported that the win, down from $1 billion a year earlier, marked the 16th month in a row that the clubs reported declines.
In northern Nevada, clubs in Washoe County, which takes in Reno, were down 16 percent. It was the 22nd consecutive month of declines for the area.
Resorts on Lake Tahoe's south shore reported a 35.4 percent decrease in April compared with the same month a year earlier.
A statewide game-by-game breakdown shows that slots were off 11.2 percent while table games were down 20.5 percent compared with April 2008.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Consumers these days are "debt diversified." A modern day consumer bankruptcy isn't the house, car, visa and a couple store cards. We've got 401k withdrawals, Helocs on top of 2nd liens, multiple unsecured credit cards, etc. Then there's assets and their allocation. The collateral damage is going to extend far beyond previous impact zones.
My mom has a set of sterling silver flatware, and it comes out once in a blue moon.
My flatware set is lexan plastic.
Why have we never heard the word Snarkasm before?
Cheers!!
! Bravo
''Funny how the bankruptcy rate isn't going up as fast as foreclosures or home defaults.''
Maybe people aren't even bothering to declare BK. I hear that going thru BK court is an onerous and expensive task these days.
Comrade Short Bucky (profile) wrote on Sat, 6/6/2009 - 7:07 am
''Funny how the bankruptcy rate isn't going up as fast as foreclosures or home defaults.''
Maybe people aren't even bothering to declare BK. I hear that going thru BK court is an onerous and expensive task these days.
They're all Casey Serin now.
Funny how the bankruptcy rate isn't going up as fast as foreclosures or home defaults.
Non-recourse mortgages and speculators defaulting on multiple homes.
A lawyer buddy who does bk sez people can't afford to file anymore.
And really, you can't get blood out of a stone anyway.
Another firm that was down the hall before Miami-Dade College kicked me out was going great guns
as of the beginning of Jan, but I haven't heard anything about them recently.
A Better Solution for GM
A Better Solution for GM - KM Edge: Where the best in Knowledge Management come together
C. Jackson Grayson
June 5, 2009 Comments
Toyota, Nissan, and Honda are likely to be smiling today. Not because of the GM bankruptcy. It would definitely be un-Japanese to gloat.
They're smiling because the U.S. government thinks all it has to do is follow the management guidance of the White House auto team, give GM lots of money, fire the CEO, get labor concessions, set fuel efficiency standards, urge the company to create hybrids, and competitiveness will be magically restored.
According to The New York Times, this miracle will be wrought by a 31-year-old; a very bright young man who has never set foot in an auto plant, has never run a manufacturing business, and is advising the already laughable "auto rescue team" about running a competitive auto company in a market where Toyota is already whipping their body parts!!!
I started to laugh because I thought this was part of the Jay Leno farewell skit. No one could make this up!
What if Obama gave Y-Combinator 40 Billion Dollars
What if Obama gave Y-Combinator 40 Billion Dollars - Zaid Loves Vitamin Water
Now for some numbers...all hypothetical.
* 600,000 new startups
the number of startups that can be funded.
(total money - admin cost) / cost per startup = ($40B - $10B) / $50,000
* 1,020,000 people
employed by the startups.
avg. # of employees x total startups = 1.7 x 600,000
* 125,000 people
# of people employed by GM.artups = 1.7 x 600,000
* 125,000 people
# of people employed by GM.
There we have it folks.....Obama is all 'shuck and jive' when it comes to REAL hope and change !
I watch all this with fear & trembling.
But I do think there is something of a military aspect toit.
Not much of an excuse, but. . . .
'Funny how the bankruptcy rate isn't going up as fast as foreclosures or home defaults.
In non-recourse states, which include CA, FL, AZ, a mortgage borrower can simply return the house back to the lender and walk away from further payments (jingle mail). The lender will have to foreclose on the house, while the borrower does not have to declare BK.
Perhaps we can Genetically Modify (GM) Michigan economies?
Another year of drought and much of the SW is toast, and the rallying cry would be: Go East Westerners!
I mean, bk eliminates annoying phone calls from creditors. . .
But you can change your phone number, right?
After a while after bk, you can get credit again. Maybe. I think.
But is that a good idea for people who have proved they can't handle
credit in the first place?
You can stretch out your foreclosure.
But maybe not necessary in Fla now that the filing fee in Miami-Dade has more than
well, what's the wordfor going up 10x?, and and octupled or more in the
other counties?
Florida is NOT a non recourse state. Deficiency judgements are, and always have been
a matter of RIGHT. Lenders simply never ask for them on house deficiencies; including those
who always ask for them for, say, car loans. Why? Dunno? Publicity? Uselessness? Too
stupid?
Isn't the rule of thumb that if you want more of something, subsidize it and you want less of
something, tax it? Gosh the foreclosure rate should plumment. Maybe the lenders will start
cramming themselves down.
It occured to me as I drank my coffee and looked out the window at my plants growing amok because of all the rain that there was a momenteous change in Western Civilization in the last few generations. For the first time, the population that is childbearing age had decided that their needs are more important then their childrens. They must be fullfilled. They can not sacrifice in hopes that the next generation will be better off.
You guys need to stop worrying about credit scores and credit after bk..as long as you have a job, carried one card thru and paid some installments before you can get an auto loan today courtesy of your government owned and sponsered GMAC entity...
build it back up in 2 years to over 600+ fica
i must really live in a bubble. according to the USDA, one out of NINE people are on food stamps.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
For the first time, the population that is childbearing age had decided that their needs are more important then their childrens. They must be fullfilled. They can not sacrifice in hopes that the next generation will be better off.
I don't know if i've mentioned this in the past, but this year, my dad turns 65 and will have health insurance (Medicare) for the first time in his life. But he's never not had a life insurance policy.
Nice to see a real American buy Saturn. Where are the rest of the Big Buck Boys?
Here is an example of Government Motors being used for political reasons instead of management having a free hand to become lean, mean and truly competitive.
freep.com | | Detroit Free Press
no va = it doesn't go
The biggest change for me-Rip Van Juvenal, has been the complete acceptance of women into all things, especially the workplace. This exacerbated the tendency not to have children even more so.
JD, you do not think that a significant percentage of the population, especially those that could afford it, chose to limit the amount of children they had in order to maximize their personal lifestyle?
"Then: Omaha beach landing"
Later today there'll be a recorded tribute to one of the veterans of the landing on:
pavel.libsyn.com
nova,
I really do. The swagger with which everybody showed off their swag was more important than the results of a shag.
Liz: what's the word for going up 10x?, and and octupled or more in the other counties
I think it's magnitudled. Or magnadoodies.
My Father went from Normandy to Germany the hard way. He was not at the landing, a different wave. He used to tell me about the hedgerows. We were by St. Michel and I asked about them as I didn't see any. The guide said a lot had been flattened in the 1960's to improve agriculture.
dupe.
"It occured to me as I drank my coffee and looked out the window at my plants growing amok because of all the rain that there was a momenteous change in Western Civilization in the last few generations. For the first time, the population that is childbearing age had decided that their needs are more important then their childrens. They must be fullfilled. They can not sacrifice in hopes that the next generation will be better off."
Yes, perhaps. But why?
JD,
Nice way of putting it indeed
Nova--Arthur Miller complained about this in "All MY Sons"- evil done in the name of legacy. The world hasn't changed, or trickled down.
Mel,
I have never had an original thought in my life and posting here always confirms it.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 6/6/2009 - 7:26 am
It occured to me as I drank my coffee ... They can not sacrifice in hopes that the next generation will be better off.
We'll have it forced on us then. I think as an end-of-cohort boomer I will be forced to see the dismantling of the fossil empire, and will not enjoy it. Like a lot of kids I was hoping to be an astronaut, in 1964.
You make it more pleasant for us to have kids and we will have more of 'em.
I am happy to have had 2 and wanted a third, which never happened.
My secy just had her third. Mostly her hub's idea. He isn't helping with the kid.
This is causing increasing fighting and tension. I think she'd rather be at work
with me (and I can be a pain) than home. he thinks she should just be around
on weekends to watch the kids, while he goes where he wants.
This is very common.
My impression is this more common than not.
We are require to take on more responsibility. We don't get paid for it. We just
get complained about. What ever we do isn't good enough as per the kids.
And then,some kids, after all that work, turn out rotten.
And then, after all that work, we aren't pretty enough anymore. Our wrinkles
aren't honorable battle scars, they are just proof of uselessness. Metaphors
like "jabbering like an old woman" are used without any thought at all.
Now I'm going to make crepes with the hub of 42 years, who isn't like that at
all.
NervousRex (profile) wrote on Sat, 6/6/2009 - 7:38 am
Liz: what's the word for going up 10x?, and and octupled or more in the other counties
Order of magnitude.
Order of magnitude, yes!! I was thinking of something in the "tupled" vein.
NervousRex,
Yep. It will be very interesting while the power is still on.
Most of my friends are in their late 30's-early 40's, and there has been a profound baby boom, the latest is a 39 year old friend expecting twins, her first children.
They say the older you have kids, the smarter they are. I guess i'll found out?
I must know 15 kids aged 6 months to 7 years that fit the profile.
Kids are expensive and an incredible time suck.Many people I know looked at the costs and the state of the world and said no.Others looked at their future and said " I can give one a decent chance,I'll stop there".I had one,late,and am enjoying being a dad.Our Society is a tad dysfunctional as some here have noted,and raising kids is not a small undertaking in the best of times.Unlike the past,that extra pair of hands takes a very long time to contribute to the support of the family unit,we do not live on farms for the mos part any longer.
Later today there'll be a recorded tribute to one of the veterans of the landing on
Sarkozi did not invite Queen Elizabeth to participate in D-Day celebrations, making it a US-French only event.
How utterly rude and stupid!
MrM. I suppose the Candians were also slighted...
WWII...who gives a shit anymore. Except Americans grandstanding and circle-jerking around it over and over again. Normandy was not even somehow brilliantly executed or planned attack, more like lucky clusterfuck, win by sheer numbers of troops coming in. Germans shot Allied troops like ducks in the barrel until the ducks overwhelmed the guns.
Everything after Normandy were also lousily planned by the Allies because British and American generals were more concerned who gets to be the Big Man and gets all that honour. Unnecessarily wasting troops with stupid plans and movements or not attacking when they should have because victory was not "certain". Germans put up quite a fight even with far more inferior army by that point.
This is 21st century and we are facing decades of huge challenges globally. Give the grandpas or grandgrandpas their medals and move on.
I suppose the Canadians were also slighted...
Double slighted, I suppose
The irony is that of all (nominal and real) heads of state of the Allies, QE is the only one with a direct personal link to WWII
WWII...who gives a shit anymore
Germans, Jews, Russians, Poles and other Slavs, as well as Chinese, Japanese
Children are a nuisance to life, sucking up resources; at the same time they are a great blessing, and a joy.
We've got two and I know that is as much as we can handle. My wife would rather work than be at home with the kids all day (sometimes, I'd gladly switch places). Plus it seems like there are very few decent jobs that a) don't require 60+ hours at work or b) don't require travel (and really that travel becomes the 60+ hours work-week). If we had a third I know we would kill each other. I tell people we are on the tie, the snip, both male and female pills, and on top of that proper condom use... but the joke is two young children is the most natural of birth controls...
My wife is older than me, had our first when I was nearly 25 and second when I was nearly 28. I know why people wait because of the whole job security thing and money thing. But I'd rather have kids when I'm younger so I'm not chasing after then with a cane when I'm 50-60 years old. Additionally it never made sense to me to delay the whole family life if that's what you really wanted. I'd say we are a happy couple; of course somewhat dysfunctional, I think any family with kids younger than 5 by definition is going to be a little crazy (and when the teenage years come, a lot crazy).
It is a big problem; not valuing the younger generations, not valuing young families. Now maybe we have some artifacts in our life such as no support from our parents that make things alot challenging. Her parents we've probably given more "support" to than they have given us (they are barely head above water) and my dad is enjoying his "new found" (three years) widow/bachelorhood. It sucks raising a family in a vacuum like this... but hey, that's life. It's not like more and more families aren't trying to do it.
"The Forgotten Solider" is a glimpse into another D-Day on the frozen steppes or sinkable mud of the eastern front, from the loser's perspective of an Alsatian Frenchman who volunteered for the wehrmacht. His D-Day went on for about 3 years. (or maybe not, some claim it's fiction)
Without the Russians taking enormous casualties, the Germans squash us like so many little pimples on the beaches of Normandy today, 65 years ago.
"WWII...who gives a shit anymore
Germans, Jews, Russians, Poles and other Slavs"
Germans: We (our generation) were not there.
Jews (especially some Israelis): HOLOCAUST! HOLOCAUST! Give me money and guns! Palestinians are out to get us!
Poles: Too busy fixing the houses or pipes of Europe to earn money.
Other Slavs: Too busy fixing their own house.
Russians: A little bit grandstanding there but also too busy fixing their own house and selling oil.
In many Asian cultures, offspring are the only safety net, so that parents have an actual stake in the well-being on the next generation. As opposed to the NY pension deal that was worked out yesterday...
Without the Russians taking enormous casualties
... taking and inflicting eourmouse casualties: Germany lost 70-80% of its Army on the Eastern front
Large American families disappeared with Farm evolution. The need for more labor was replaced by machines and people move to cities. The model of society was two for two replacement and not over populate.
"The Gaming Control Board reported that the win, down from $1 billion a year earlier, marked the 16th month in a row that the clubs reported declines."
.....yeah....factor in bars that have been ALREADY approved for existing gaming have to wait an additional 8-months to add another establishment for slots. What takes 8-months for a signature? The right palms weren't greased this time is only difference. Who says The Mob hasn't just moved their address to Carson City now.
Was Normandy necessary? Did it speed up the war's conclusion? As a Jew, I know it didn't speed up the destruction of the rail lines to the death camps.
....."to wait an additional 8-months (So FAR) to add another establishment"
"I hear that going thru BK court is an onerous and expensive task these days."
Not really. If you means test for Ch 7, all your debts get wiped out, but they can't touch your retirement accounts. Of course if you include your home and car, you will lose them. 25 page questionaire, $50 education course, $400 filing fee( + atty fees), a court date, and youre done.
When I first started traveling in the UK in the early 1980's, there was still quite a bit of coverage of WW1 vets in the papers and I could see how profoundly changed a country the war must have made it after hostilities ended. Now nearly 30 years later just a handful of WW1 vets are living, and you never hear about them anymore.
Anybody high up enough to have been a decision-maker on a higher level in WW2 is dead now, or close to it. The bright-eyed bushy tailed buck private 18 year old g.i. that got in late in the game in 1945, is 82 years old this year...
The bright-eyed bushy tailed buck private 18 year old g.i. that got in late in the game in 1945, is 82 years old this year...
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett. 82 and still yummy.
I just think what a near thing WWII was, in so many ways. One altered decision and we could've had The Man in the High Castle.
and so many more.
I probably got pigged out, but I wanted to interject something into the discussion:
Back in late 2004 or early 2005 (I can't remember if it was right before or right after the BAPCPA law passed), I was talking to the US Trustee (Head Honcho) of the bankruptcy court. He told me that his superiors in Washington told him -- just based on the math -- that by 2012 they expected 25% of Americans to be, or to have been in bankruptcy. Now, my memory is a little faulty, so that number may be a little exaggerated (but only a little, if it is).
Everyone here is mentioning crazy mortgages and credit card debt, but that is not even remotely close to the major cause of bankruptcy, which is medical debt. A new study now shows 60% of bankruptcies are primarily caused by medical debt (up from 54%). I was on the front lines, and I can tell you that the report is accurate. Without a national healthcare program (single payer, single risk-pool), these numbers will continue to stay high. There simply is no other answer. But it is the one answer we are not talking about.
By the way, job loss and divorce were the #2 and #3 causes of bankruptcy when I was practicing. I suspect little has changed. Overuse of credit (borrowing more than you can afford to pay back) was way back at #4 (~5%).
Talking about people who borrow more than they can afford to pay back is fun for the kind of people who hang around these financial blogs and all, but it misses the real "big picture."
"Was Normandy necessary? Did it speed up the war's conclusion?"
Are you serious? Who do you think would "conclude" the war? Just wait for the Russians to fight their way to Berlin? Without pressure on the Western front, the Germans might have held out for years. What makes you think liberating the concentration camps would have been a priority for the Russians? That the rest of Europe was under the jackboot of the Germans seems to be of little interest to you.
.
Normandy necessary? Nope, the Atomic bomb could have done it.
Normandy was a tactic--there were other approaches from the west. Once we were in France, we, the allies, still neglected the rail lines to the concentration camps--which were not defended. Wars can always be Monday morning quarterbacked--and the motivation for decisions discussed--hindsight not only gives answers--it also asks better questions.
@Nova: You make a good point but I know many (like myself and my wife) who have tried everything the could (and spared no expense) to not only have their own children but to adopt without any luck. So I think you are over-generalizing a bit here.
The hardest thing I find about mid-life is managing boredom. If you've done thing relatively right there's no drama - bills are paid, job is secure, friendships are solid and acceptance (finally) sets in toward your spouse. Then what? Frankly I think that's the catalyst for many a mid-life baby.
"Once we were in France..."
And how do you propose, in hindshight, that we arrive in France? England was the staging area, where men and machines were massed, and extraordinary efforts were made to deny the Germans info on the numbers involved. The best German military minds guessed Calais, but Eisenhower chose the far rougher seas and the barrier cliffs at Normandy.
In the build-up to Normandy, In April and May 1944, the Allied air forces lost nearly 12,000 men and over 2,000 aircraft in operations which paved the way for D-Day.
During the battle itself, 16,714 allied air force were killed.
The best American general, Patton, felt the US was in danger of losing the war, and he was not put in play until after the landings. Until the Battle of Bastogne, and the rescue of the 101st by Patton's 3rd Army, the Germans held the upper hand, and almost pulled out a victory.
You might want to read some military history.