Hotel Occupancy Rate Falls to 51.6%

in

That's an awful lot of pent-up demand for hotel rooms.

repost

We're all Section 8 now!

City turns upscale building in Crown Heights into homeless shelter

Page Not Found...

How does the second derivative look?

Cheaper outcalls!

As this recession / depression / clusterf@ck drags on, don't the YoY measures become pretty meaningless?

No new reservations during storms either:

"Florida disaster official suggests using foreclosed properties as hurricane housing"
Florida disaster official suggests using foreclosed properties as hurricane housing - St. Petersburg Times

don't the YoY measures become pretty meaningless?

Compared to what ?

Yesterday's news so apologies if already posted:

13 cities post unemployment above 15%
9 of the highest are in California. An additional 93 metro areas are at 10% or more.

13 cities post unemployment higher than 15% in April - Jun. 3, 2009

I was at a hotel, and they offered free cliff diving lessons into their pool from the 13th story.

Looking at the graph, it appears that occupancy rates have not increased since mid 2006. I have to wonder why I still see so many hotels being built. This is not going to end well.

Craigslist stopped running "Erotic Services" ads recently.Coincidence?

"Sell in May, go away"

Naaaaa.

Buy in June, observe the balloon

Between cheap hotels and unemployed young women.. this is gonna be fun!

I see more and more hotels and motels that have "Pet Friendly" banners, dog gone it.

bubble being deflated...

Money doesn’t grow on trees for most of America. We sit down at our kitchen tables and write

out checks to the phone-company, electric company, credit card-company, mortgage-company,

and auto finance company every month. We clip coupons and go to the grocery store every

week to put food in the mouths of our children. This is what our parents did before us.

good articles> http://is.gd/HGYt

There isn't a single business model in the industry that could have possibly anticipated these pro formas. CRE loans have got to smoldering in the regional banks' balance sheets.

Chasing RV's lately and see many on the road here. Not finding what I want as older value units go fast and dealers have no trade ins. New, even at drastic price reductions are not selling. Financing is part of the problem.

Anyone know how many the Census Bureau hired this month?

Two amusing posts today by Paul Kedrosky

Sovereign Debt Repayment in Shit
Sovereign Debt Repayment in Shit
While we worry about the U.S. inflating away its debts, that wouldn't be so bad, historically speaking. Back in the late 19th century Peru was repaying its debt obligation in guano proceeds -- shit in short. Mind you, its shit was high quality and in real demand, unlike our shit.

California Housing: Good as 1988 Gold
California Housing: Good as 1988 Gold

not to worry, the hurricane season will help this number, regionally at least

who knows, maybe they're ginning up another storm of the century as stimulus

How do you start a hurricane?

"Plenty of room at the Hotel California
Any time of year, you can find it here . . ."

km4: man, that's some shit!

maybe there's hope for our children and grandchildren yet!

RD: ask Brownie

I saw some guano sites in Peru. 100% renewable energy. Free money if you're willing to get your hands dirty.

"Craigslist stopped running "Erotic Services" ads recently.Coincidence?"

This also might have something to do with its removal.

Police: Husband arranged wife's rape on Craigslist

We share the public's horror that such a crime was committed, and our heart goes out to the victim," said Craigslist spokeswoman Susan MacTavish Best.

The online classified site had been criticized for its "erotic services" section, which Craigslist agreed to do away with last month after a Boston medical student, deemed "the Craigslist killer," was charged with killing a woman he met on the site.

Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found

V V: "Heck uv a job Timmay!"

@ volker the viking (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/4/2009 - 10:04 am
maybe there's hope for our children and grandchildren yet!


triggered this from Cheech and Chong "im smokin dog shit man" its some pretty good shit ...

Bat Guano, if that is your real name.

Someone else will do it, and they will be harder to regulate.

//Craigslist stopped running "Erotic Services" ads recently.//

Hotel Occupancy Rate Falls to 51.6%

Wow - CR - those are some seriously low numbers. Excluding the time immediately after 9/11 they have to be near all time lows... y/n?

You may be right--here's a chart CR posted last year that's too coarse to show intrayear variations:

Calculated Risk: Forecast: 2009 Hotel Occupancy Rate to be Lowest Since 1971

Cougars have been known to prowl around hotels, but not lately...

Anyone paying attention to oil up $3.27

I would be interested in this excerpt from today's CDC bulletin re H1N1 influenza, in addition to hurricanes:

"A recently reported serologic study suggested that children and younger adults have no or low levels of serum antibody, respectively, that are cross-reactive for the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus. Approximately one third of U.S. adults aged >60 years who were tested had cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies; however, the extent to which such antibody might be protective remains unknown (7). The serologic data, along with the age distribution of illness and clinical severity from the outbreak in Mexico, suggest age <60 years as a risk for infection and serious illness from novel A (H1N1) infection.

The current pattern of novel influenza A (H1N1) transmission in the northern hemisphere includes many localized outbreaks, including several among school children (8). This pattern is consistent with influenza outbreaks occasionally reported outside of the usual influenza season (9). However an unprecedented number of such off-season outbreaks are occurring currently. These outbreaks also involve extension into the community, as demonstrated by confirmed illness among travelers with no known epidemiologic link to focal outbreaks. Similar patterns of off-season outbreaks have been observed previously with the emergence and sustained transmission of other novel influenza A virus strains among humans (10).

The recent introduction of novel influenza A (H1N1) into several countries in the southern hemisphere at the beginning of its influenza season and the presumed susceptibility among much of the population to this new virus suggest that this strain might become a dominant circulating virus in the southern hemisphere during the coming months. The government of Mexico continues to coordinate a national response, engage partners, increase surge capacity, and implement mitigation measures to slow the spread of novel influenza A (H1N1). Investigations are ongoing to monitor virus circulation and evaluate mitigation strategies that might help guide prevention and control strategies in Mexico and worldwide."

The smiley above seems to be an artifact of the program here.

My sure-fire oil play never fails...

I go long 15, and when I feel that capacity has reached a bottom, I load up again.

I've never lost one cent using this trading technique~

All commodities, PMs and oil got masacred yesterday, and all are up big today.

So, you'll never know why the massacre took place. But you can know that the underlying uptrend is still in place.

Don't try to time this market with stops or any other system. There's too much leverage, speculation, manipulation and govt. interference Just bet on where it will all get to in the last chapter.

It's hard for some people to see inflation soaring and stocks and bonds tanking simultaneously in the last chapter.

But that's what she wrote (according to the history of every great fallen civilization).

There are no underpinnings for a sustained bull rally in stocks from here.

Oil is uncertain.

There's very solid pinnings for other commodities (food, base metals) and PMs.

Actually, in the original CDC document the 'smiley' above was a number referring to a note, as (8). It seems to have been transformed into a smiley on hoocoodanode.

You have to wonder in a world of a Billion Chinese, how David Carradine was able to snatch the lead role in Kung Fu?

r.i.p. Grasshopper

Oil up $3+. I am so excited!!! J6P will be so pleased when he goes to fill up the boat this weekend.

I found the thread with my bet. The other side was Senorito American Mugabe, and the stakes $20 to the tip jar.

It still perhaps early to claim victory, but it's been over 4 months now and no bad bank. Joe Shmoe and I called it cold.

Comment by Senorito American Mugabe from thread 'CNBC: "Bad Bank" Possible by Next Week'

about ready to capitulate on shorts...too much manipulation..

Super Wow Yalt - the 1971 number is a composite of the whole year... there must have been some really nasty months in there.

I was a kid during that period - my father lost his job as the factory he ran 'imploded' - orders just dried up. They were building AC units many of which were going into hotel rooms. I guess now I know why the plant struggled so much.

P.J. O'Rourke had a humorous piece on NPR this morning about how young people are cruising face book rather than cruising in their own cars like their moms dads did. Yes, times have changed and it's not good for the automobile industry. The same goes for the hotel industry as videoconferencing replaces business trips and hotel stays as others have mentioned here...

1944 Bretton Woods agreement

1971: Abrogation

2009: Abandonment

Oil up $3+. I am so excited!!! J6P will be so pleased when he goes to fill up the boat this weekend.


Sorry the boat has been repoed!....nice post as always Rich

about ready to capitulate on shorts...too much manipulation..

You will soon regret it. In single shorts, you can wait it out. You don't have to capitulate.

In double shorts, it's harder.

Teabag Santelli got a chuckle out of me... "Go long cotton. Lots of cotton in the USD"

How would you like to be a recreational boat sales outlet?

Or a recreational vehicle (mobile home) dealer?

Or a luxury jewelry retailer in a fancy hotel?

Damn these rich folks. They want great tax treatment (because they spend and invest) and then they sit on their money when we need their stimulus.

You have to wonder in a world of a Billion Chinese, how David Carradine was able to snatch the lead role in Kung Fu?

Asians are the bad guys in most martial arts movies. The good guys are white guys who look a little Asian, understand the zen, and studied martial arts under an Asian master. A lot of times, they were tortured in Vietnam.

Martial arts movies sell very well in a lot of macho societies, like Latin America.

Hispanics like to see white guys kick Asians' asses.

[about ready to capitulate on shorts]

Know how you feel. I always carry shorts even in bull markets to hedge but cleared out a couple of weeks ago. Added more to TBT at the time, which actually isn't a hedge, even tho it's an ultrashort... Did sell some OTM calls against a few of my positions and unless there's a tank they appear to be liquidation material.

Hey, dotn leave out Wesley Snipes in Rising Sun........black karate guys can also be the good guy.

Rich- thanks for reply but it's getting really hard to hold as you see your account dwindling...they are not taking this down...its the only thing they can control....should have picked up some of your calls...you've been nailing them since 07...good trading to ya....

He stole from Bruce Lee

bearly (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/4/2009 - 10:55 am
Teabag Santelli got a chuckle out of me... "Go long cotton. Lots of cotton in the USD"

As a Mill Chemist for Strathmore Paper in the early 80's I can tell you it isn't easy to make US paper currency. 20%+ linen and 70%+ long cotton combed fibers USD are both tough and tough to make. Still our consumption was but a few seconds' worth of a typical t-shirt manufacturer.

Spouse is traveling again for business, basically he lives in an Embassy Suites near his company's headquarters. A year ago, his company would easily have 50 people in this hotel at any given time, now it is fewer than 10. Needless to say he is treated like royalty.

anyone else unable to get to CR's site? or is it just me?...

No info about Census Bureau hires generally. But - a friend in New Hampshire recently told me she was applying for work to the Census Bureau up in New Hampshire and finding the process a lot more competitive than she had imagined.

Not just you having trouble. I had to go through Google to get here.

"anyone else unable to get to CR's site? or is it just me?..."

No problem here, but I have the site bookmarked. Try bookmarking it to see if it fixes your problem.

"Anyone paying attention to oil up $3.27"

Almost to $70.

Nice little equities rally, today.

Looking at the graph, it appears that occupancy rates have not increased since mid 2006. I have to wonder why I still see so many hotels being built.

The 2006 peak probably coincides with a big ramp in construction fueled by really cheap financing. First all the construction jobs will go away, then the hotel staff jobs will go away as the properties are shuttered for underperformance. Good times all the way around.

"Try bookmarking it to see if it fixes your problem."

It is actually... even if I click the link on this page I get a "can't find the server" error. Weird....

Rocky every time the sp500 gets close to the 200day ma it sells off.... then makes another run, but cant get through...

JBR it's probably that your machine cant see it's dns server... that happens to me on Comcast sometimes...

RD you are a chemist? Going into the THC refining biz if it becomes legal?

JBR, I can see the site OK. Weird things happen ...

Calculated Risk 

Hopefully it gets resolved soon.

You can try Calculated Risk too

best wishes

"JBR it's probably that your machine cant see it's dns server... that happens to me on Comcast sometimes..."

yeah, something's weird... all other sites come up fine. Thought the gov't had gotten to it! lol

RD you are a chemist? Going into the THC refining biz if it becomes legal?


I think it's when, not if... or just wishful thinking perhaps Smile

If it's Window$, try rebooting....

"Hillarious, I saw it on a video clip, Geithner going down in flames in China they're laughing their azzes off at him. "
Yahoo! Message Boards - Goldman Sachs Group (GS) - The chinese laugh at Geithner

Someone has this on their hard drive somewhere. Scour the internets.

RFIPO (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/4/2009 - 1:01 pm ....black karate guys can also be the good guy.

Except for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Bruce Lee whooped him good.

Just renewed my DHCP lease. That fixed it. Thank god I leased and didn't buy! Smile

... and introducing Timmay as the Green Hornet

ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/4/2009 - 11:27 am

RD you are a chemist? Going into the THC refining biz if it becomes legal?

I_have_NO_idea what you are talking about. In all my years of Boston brownstone fraternity hydroponics, Cambridge Mass organic chemistry, WPI composites structures and West Coast subsequent political infiltrations in California I cannot understand how you could get that impression. Wink

Just because you are not paranoid doesnt mean that they are not out to get you...

Gary: Joe Shmoe and I called it cold.

If I recall correctly, both you and Joe Shmoe said that some of the money centers would be nationalized. I think you said it would happen during your European vacation.

Lots of empty warehouse space out there in Riverside and Victorville.... Ready work force... I5 and 101 run right through the heart of grow country - easy transport of raw material - I've heard that there are a few rail cars available too.... See looks like the free market is creating an opportunity here... Could feed the leftover biomass to livestock, make ethanol, or burn it to produce steam and electricity too... I think we have a Winnah!!

Credit card defaults up, delinquencies fall: Fitch

Fitch's prime credit card chargeoff index -- which measures loans the companies do not expect to be paid -- climbed 77 basis points to 9.66 percent, its third consecutive record result. It is up 51 percent from a year ago.

However, the rating agency's delinquency index, which measures receivables more than 60 days past due, declined 7 basis points to 4.37 percent. Delinquency rates are considered an indicator of future credit losses for card companies.

"young people are cruising face book rather than cruising in their own cars like their moms dads did"

The movie "Wall-E" as future history.

Sad.

Sorry if this is a stupid question but, does this mean the FED bought $7,494 of the two year today?

Operation Date: 06/04/2009
Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time: 10:15 AM
Close Time: 11:00 AM
Settlement Date: 06/05/2009
Maturity/Call Date Range: 05/31/2011 - 04/30/2012
Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $7,494
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $36,628

Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Permanent Open Market Operations 

When consumers stop paying their mortgages, then they are more likely to make cc payments... Many consumers live in fear of losing their credit card since they have no savings...

ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/4/2009 - 11:42 am
Lots of empty warehouse space out there in Riverside and Victorville.... Ready work force... I5 and 101 run right through the heart of grow country - easy transport of raw material - I've heard that there are a few rail cars available too.... See looks like the free market is creating an opportunity here... Could feed the leftover biomass to livestock, make ethanol, or burn it to produce steam and electricity too... I think we have a Winnah!!

No. I disagree. You are basing this on a "return" to normal. That wasn't "normal" my friend. Normal may be lower activity than we see now.

RD if it was legal to refine pot, there would be a huge market .... There is already a huge market ....

Little vials of THC oil to be used in medicines, food, or smoked in a little glass pipe... Not that I would know anything about that...

So interest rates are rising and gas prices are rising, but wages are falling.

Is this the story of the recovery?

Industrial metals are on fire. DBB, the ETF for mixed metals, hit $15.42 today, its highest since last October.

It's up 41% since February. The momentum seems strong.

While the story is that China is buying metals, it seems beyond that. Supplies are very low, and that may be a bigger part of the story. I think base metals are being stockpiled around the world in anticipation of currency debasement and price increases.

Another way to play is FCX. On fire. More than a triple since December.

Actually Hemp produces the most ethanol per acre while using the least amount of water.....and california could use the 2.1 billion in new revenue from legalizing pot....

why let the mexican cartel make all the money?

SP500 just failed at 942 again...

No recovery in sight yet, no matter what you might have heard somewhere else... Global GDP still shrinking... Only Australia and New Zealand got a little bump and that is mostly from free govt money being tossed out the window...

TNX getting creamed. How long can the mortgage market be supported (bailed out) by the Fed.

failure is not an option.....or allowed. Give it a day or so.

Ciao
MS

Is the Fed really losing control of the long bond or are they just messing with us?

bearly-

how long can he print money? That's how long.

Ciao
MS

Crane biz update...

Hoist

Wall-Mart is planning on hiring 22,000. Wonderful, lots more hamster wheel jobs, great.

Wall-Mart is planning on hiring 22,000. Wonderful, lots more hamster wheel jobs, great.

Hey, 22K mostly minimum wage jobs is better than nothing. And, that's really the alternative.

bearly-

Not trying to be a smart-ass but it's really academic to me. Now that sort of falls into the same breath as Ghost (whom has been very clear, concise) but I can't help but get a chuckle that he still asks are we are going to get inflation....

It's already happening and started in March.

Ciao
MS

Michael, you missed the part where Walmart lays off 25,000 that get more than min. wage, in order to hire 22,000 at the minimum.

Dang. Good day to be a dope.

I'M BACK
YouTube - walstreetpro2 Channel

The ending was great, Pro's best work ever.

2's - 10's about to set a new record, again

( Afternoon Green shoots )

University of Central Florida -45

Cessna announces additonal layoffs

East Haven, CT area schools -45

Bobcat idles two additional plants, announces additional temporary layoffs

Paragon Industries -105

Colorado University at Boulder -75

Report: Louisiana lost 3,300 manufacturing jobs in Q1

Tree of Life, Inc. -39

Radio & Records Magazine -30

Stratford, CT area schools -10

City of Oroville, CA -9

MCCI -100

Bernard Callebut Choclatier temp layoffs (Canada) -30

Harvard University mass layoffs looming

City of Milpitas, CA -21

City of Columbus, OH Fire Department -289

Phillips Products -125

New York City Administration for Children's Services -165

Northwest Museum of Arts & Culture -15

Waucheset, MA area schools -70

Hundreds protest Seattle teacher layoffs

Bridegeport, CT hospital layoffs looming

Louisville, KY area schools -73

Warren City, FL -19

University of California - San Diego not finished with layoffs

Rheem Corp. -465

Cherry Blossom, LLC -45

Integer Group -19

Hardigg Industries -50

AGCo -60

Untitled Document

I have the feeling that China is giving the US a little spanking by shifting out of purchasing treasuries into commodities.

If the 10 year crashes in the middle of an equity rally, does anybody hear it?

Is the Fed really losing control of the long bond or are they just messing with us?

It's coming unglued.

Shill thanks for posting that link again - I had lost it - that site also has a big list of places that are hiring....

"It's coming unglued."

Not a problem.
We can just refinance everything into treasuries.

OT-

Just ran some credit score calculations for May on 2 groups of dealers....

In the NE avg score was 623
In the SE avg score was 583

Jim,
just looked at an applicant who worked as ass. mgr at walmart pay was 3500 monthly with 7 yrs on job...revolving and installment balance of 50K trying to trade in 06 vehicle

another green shoot

Criminal,

When I started to improve my investment success was when I started admitting what a dope I was. I held double shorts through the summer of 07 and just got reamed. It was only stubborn conviction that allowed me to finally make money on them in Sept. and Oct.

Since then, I've been focusing on a long/short strategy where the net exposure moves very gradually one way or the other, and generally in waves. Since December, I've been long commodities, PM and energy stocks. Only in the last two months have I amped up the shorts. I didn't worry so much about losing on the shorts in April and May because the long stuff was taking up the slack.

I feel very comfortable having things in play that can profit, without having my whole day made or ruined by the stock market. I mean, I got trashed yesterday -- but it wasn't the market that trashed me. The market is insane, and it will return to sanity. So, I'll just keep bumping up the short exposure very gradually.

that site also has a big list of places that are hiring....


Ageed, but you have to live there in order to be hired....none the less your welcome m8ty

TNX getting creamed.

One volatile day last week Tyler Durden @ Zero Hedge said the 10 yr was getting "monkey hammered". Quite possibly the most vivid, amusing description I'd heard in a long time. Smile Certainly applies today as well.

no wonder the REITs are on fire to the upside

Breaking news on CNBC - SEC to Charge Former Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo with Insider Trading

Only took 4 years, a little Fucking late wouldn't you say...? I am sure he will get the Ken Lay treatment.

Modzilla screwed people on the way up, and screwed people on the way down...but he is a small town player....we have bigger fish to fry....none the less I think Ill light a cigar in celebratory fashion.

[how long can he print money? That's how long]

The "threat" of buying treasuries works at first. Then the market sees the weakness and exploits, as the dollar gets crushed. If it were to even out a brief blip in supply - maybe. It can't work with govt borrowing $1.5t/yr for years to come.

Rich,

I was there with you in 07 TWM...of course I should have stuck with profile name then of CD...would have made 3%.... I am a dope..I am a dope for believing reits will fall....I am a dope for not picking up fitb at 1.8 and Vip at 3 something and JWN at 7....sucks being so close to haight and golden gate park...the breeze has made me a contact high dope...

Are you still scaling in slw on dips?

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