Agree ZackAttack. And a single very small change up or down does not a trend make. Unemployment is still elevated. With consumer spending low, foreseeable unemployment on the horizon (GM/Chrysler + autoparts suppliers now going bk)--we are NOT bottoming.
On the consumer-side, I expect the nasty truth to become evident in 6 months, as the higher paid jobs ($35-60) disappear to be replaced by $10-15 jobs: yellow non-lemonade trickle down economics.
Or they were down 2K (half of the reported 4K) from the advance number last week (623K).
Agree with ZackAttack that these adjustments are trivial when we are putting this many people on unemployment each week, but I'm getting tired of the games they are playing with advanced and revised numbers.
right. It's possible for 100% of the population to be unemployed but no longer eligible for benefits. Then you go into the hidden unemployment bucket, but you are not represented as collecting unemployment.
There's still a class of people who never made it back into the market after the dot-bomb event, and they are not counted at all.
We're setting ourselves up for another "jobless" recovery unrecovery.
At some point u6 just exceeds unreality and 1 out of 4 of those capable of work being unemployed or grossly underemployed gets hard to hide.
I suggest we blame them and characterize them as lazy bums who just don't want to work. We'll all feel better about that.
Spinning positive on CNBC. Continuing claims not at record high.
Of course, the talking heads prolly don't realize that about 600k of unemployed who exhausted their benefits are still unemployed but not counted as such.
Costco same stores down 7%? That's the number, kiddies.
These figures are of those filing claims, no one underemployed or have exhausted claims are counted. I understand our government is hiring and in my parts I see the IRS is hiring new agents.
It's true. There is a perception that your were not top tier, keepable. You are second rate, having been let go, and even if companies were hiring, they don't want to hire you. They still want to poach people from other companies than hire someone out of work.
I also know a lot of firms, accounting and legal, who have seeded their employees in public announcements (and therefore seeded their industry rivals as well) that they will be cutting the most unprofitable, unproductive people first.
Say you get laid off with one large firm. Does the competitor firm want to hire you? After-all, it's common knowledge that only the most non-productive unprofitable people were let go...
It marks you and its pretty unfair.
Hence, the new job creation of $10-15 jobs on the horizon...only, I don't see those either.
pigged...
Counterpointer (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/4/2009 - 7:36 am
Juvenal - it's longer-frame even than hi-tech not matching up. The entire span of recorded history is only a thin layer of slime over the deep sea of the paleolithic. That's the make-up.
LOL, yes it a perpetual source of fascination to me that the education and technology of 2009 AD is incompatible with the moral behavior of 10,000 BC.
Claims represent only some 60%, so the actual add is 1 million plus and the total, at least, 11 million plus. Adding 11/140 to the 5+% one gets somne 13%.
Sure. IRS has a huge budget now for Revenue Exam Agents. They have been given a mandate, actually one that started in the last 2 years of the Bush admin, to go out and actually enforce taxes, and they (congress) actually funded g-d forbid the IRS to carry out this mandate.
On the other hand, the hiring process is usually 9-12 months from the time you submit your application...although some areas are being streamlined.
I'm sure given a choice between a gs7 or unemployment, many people would jump at the opportunity to have a govie job.
fine. But there are not 600K govie jobs being offered every month.
Same-store sales [SSS] (actual % gain/loss vs. consensus):
Cato Corp (CTR) -3% vs. -1.5%.
Children's Place (PLCE) -9% vs. -1.6%.
Costco (COST) -7% vs. -6.3%.
Fred's (FRED) +0.2% vs. +1.5%. **
Hot Topic (HOTT) -6.4% vs. -4.8%.
Limited (LTD) -7% in-line. *
Stage Stores (SSI) -7.2% vs. -6.8%.
The Buckle (BKE) +13.4% vs. +11.6%. ***
Wet Seal (WTSLA) -8.4% vs. -9.7%. *
Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) -20.7% vs. -20.4%.
American Apparel (APP) -10% vs. -4%.
Bon-Ton Stores (BONT) -12.1% vs. -8%.
Abercrombie (ANF) -28% vs. -23.4%.
Aeropostale (ARO) +19% vs. +10.1%. ***
Gap (GPS) -6% vs. -5%.
Macy's (M) -9.1% vs. -9%.
Dillard's (DDS) -12% vs. -7%.
JC Penney (JCP) -8.2% vs. -9%. *
Kohl's (KSS) -0.4% vs. -5%. *
Nordstrom (JWN) -13.1% vs. -14.2% *
Ross Stores (ROST) +4% vs. +2.3%. ***
Saks (SKS) -26.6% vs. -13.3%.
Target (TGT) -6.1% vs. -3.7%.
TJX Cos (TJX) +5% vs. +3.6% ***
= Sales declined less than expected
** = Sales grew less than expected
*** = Sales grew more than expected
The rest all saw sales decline more than expected.
"There is a reasonable chance that claims have peaked for this cycle, but it is still too early to be sure, and if so, continued claims should peak soon."
It will be interesting to see if Robert Gordon, a Northwestern University macroeconomist and one of seven members of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Analysis, is correct in his assertion that the U.S. recession is over based on his hypothesis that in every recession since 1974, the peak in jobless claims came within weeks of the bottom of the recession. Gordon thinks we've already seen the peak in claims.
oh, I agree. Should be very interesting given the length and duration of this recession, and will likely be questionable given the relevance of "emerging" from one recession to simply enter another, all in the same year.
As people fall off the unemployment benefit list the Black market economy will grow. Consider a cash market could bring a 30% lower wage and the worker would still have the about the same buying power. Cash and no debt, the new king.
Picking up on a previous thread regarding Hoenig - for every interest payer there is an interest receiver. One persons gain is another persons loss. The difference is one of timing. A quick drop in interest rates changes borrowers behavior quicker than it does lenders (savers) behavior. However, in time low interest rates actually have a negative effect on consumption. The borrowers have done their thing but going forward as savers discover that they are making no returns on their investments and are being forced to dip into capital they will begin to cut back. This time around the cut back by savers will more than offset the increase in spending by borrowers since for many borrowers their decision to borrow and spend is not a function of interest rates but capacity.
About 20 years ago I was in Alleghany, in the remote north of California's Gold Country, and as I drove through town 2 dogs chased me, so I stopped the car and let them have me. I suspect no car had ever afforded them the honor, and they didn't know what to do.
Some of you remind me of those canines, as you are busy chasing winnings on Wall^Street denominated in dollars...
blackhat (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/4/2009 - 8:28 am
If in fact the Mission is Accomplished, then I get on to preparing for inflation for the next 20 years.
Under the previous regime public bagholders took the losses and private parties got the rewards. This will be exactly the opposite, except for a special protected class of oligarchs and political elite. Oh, and there will be no rewards.
States reported 2,347,218 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending May 16, an increase of 161,355 from the prior week. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity.
Is this in addition to the seasonally-adjusted 6,735,000? If so, does this make the comparison of continued claims to the percentage in 1982 and 1975 an apples-to-oranges comparison? It also makes the numbers much worse than advertised.
I'm finding in my small business regular joe's out of jobs and no cash are trying things unethical and border line illegal that would have never happened if we had not had a crash that has affected everyone from the banker to the candlestick maker.
My small bank has reduced staff, retiring everyone retirement age, and now i'm seeing temps at minimum wage replace career employee's.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/4/2009 - 7:51 am
Employment is much less important in a financial innovation eCONomy.
This one almost gets past TPTB doublespeak... but it should be called financial novation economy to be nearer the truth.
novation n. agreement of parties to a contract to substitute a new contract for the old one. It extinguishes (cancels) the old agreement. A novation is often used when the parties find that payments or performance cannot be made under the terms of the original agreement, or the debtor will be forced to default or go into bankruptcy unless the debt is restructured. While voluntary, a novation is often the only way any funds can be paid. (See: accord and satisfaction)
(source: novate) legal definition of novate). novate) synonyms by the Free Online Law Dictionary.
The new 'good' job: 12 bucks an hour
In the Midwest, communities race to replace dwindling auto jobs with renewable energy ones, but workers will have to sacrifice on their pay.
From: CNN Biz
This is bad on so many levels that are so obvious that I won't bother to point them out.
This will play itself out. 50 years from now people won;t be looking at the week to week unemployment figures. they be saying unemployment continued to rise and spending dropped...this caused further pressure on businesses and unemployment continued to climb.....ad nauseum... Double dipping is just so rude
Its like a surgeon only looking at half your chart and saying "looks fine to me"
Side Anecdotal: Friend in OH graduated with Chem E degree in June. He's had no luck on an actual job, so he started looking in the last month or so for an internship with not a single call back.
He told me last night that he is going down to the local KFC to ask for a job (he knows a manager there)
Most of the commentatoes are smart enough to ignore the DJIA as meaningless propaganda noise due to the constant changing of it's 30 component stocks. 2 of the 30 changed this week. 14 of the 30 have changed since i was in college in 1994.
therefore, anyone who makes point with a historical comparison of the Dow is either:
a window licker
a shill
desperately misinformed
rupert murdoch's gimp
i found this link showing the changes in the Dow over time.
I am perpetually amazed that this number is constantly trumpeted and accepted in all forms of media. I may even be more amazed by the silly DJIA than i am by the WSJ and Bloomturd saying SP500 PE is 14-15 when it is in fact closer to 130.
How sacrosanct is the minimum hourly wage standard in an era of unabated plunging wages in the maximum hourly wage?
Pressure on that really depends on if you're paying tax on it...if you are then of course people will split the difference between employee/employer. Min wage is broken today in most countries with either tax avoidance or due to legitimacy of the worker. illegal workers have no rights, so they get no minimum wage.
adding people desperate for a job into the mix and you will have a fight to the bottom. This really sounds like its going to get a lot worse
Novations require agreement of both parties of the contract. I certainly didn't agree to the new deal. And I think a lot of other prudent people didn't agree either.
This is a swindle on top of a swindle. A total rip-off. In general, for any contract to be binding, both parties must receive CONsideration. Offer and acceptance CONcepts have been ignored too.
Financial innovation = financial sham 99% of the time. Let the banks and their bondholders novate without me and the government.
So much gloom. Anyone look at this from a "positive" point of view?
IMHO, remember people were complaining that some jobs are way overpaid back in the boom days? Or jobs that require little knowledge / training / IQ is both plentiful and people are making gobs of money?
My position is that those jobs are evaporating fast. My hope is that this circle of turd jobs is starting to include the over-hyped financial-MBA and realtor jobs.
Of course there'll be collateral damage to good people with good skills. I hope that the economy turnaround will quickly re-employ these people and minimize their pain.
If you want me to sympathize people who've never put in the education and training or don't produce socially beneficial work and expect to be paid six figures and half a mil. I cannot find sympathy for them.
This is the positive spin for this employment reset. Maybe now we'll also get less smart young kids going into financial-innovation (read: economic illusionist) majors and careers and more into work that will improve our lives, not destroy them.
I was wondering. You mentioned once that every percentage point in unemployment would lead to one percentage point in extra Mortgage delinquencies. But you also stated that this is conventional wisdom as long as employment remains below 8 or 9 %. We now seem to have passed that point. Are delinquencies accelerating? Or is it too early to tell?
Would it be possible to produce a graph (YES! a graph!) on this?
They're not counting all the students who just graduated.
Someone above wrote of a Chem Eng grad who couldn't even find an internship and is about to try KFC.
My youngest daughter just graduated from Yale Law, and has no job yet. She wants to do government or public-interest work. Until this year, Yale itself supported many public-interest legal activities with its endowment wealth, but with that down about 30% it has had to cut back there. And of course all state governments are cutting back programs. Fortunately, she has nearly zero debt, unlike most of her contemporaries, who are in a truly pitiable situation.
I honestly have started looking for a new job every time a company i've worked for had any lay offs.
Never been laid off myself, but if your company is looking you have to go before recruiters start asking you "are you currently employed?" and you have to say no. Maybe I'm just paranoid.
Employment is much less important in a financial innovation eCONomy.
Anybody know how furloughs are treated?
These little 3 - 4K "surprises" are simply not relevant when you're losing 600K jobs per month.
Agree ZackAttack. And a single very small change up or down does not a trend make. Unemployment is still elevated. With consumer spending low, foreseeable unemployment on the horizon (GM/Chrysler + autoparts suppliers now going bk)--we are NOT bottoming.
--bh
On the consumer-side, I expect the nasty truth to become evident in 6 months, as the higher paid jobs ($35-60) disappear to be replaced by $10-15 jobs: yellow non-lemonade trickle down economics.
--bh
As the recessions stretches on, do continuing claims fall because more and more unemployed people have maxed out their benefits?
between this stellar news and GS getting upgraded (trying not laugh), guessing we'll close at 8900 today?
Once everyone is unemployed and their benefit window is closed, then unemployment new claims will fall
Or they were down 2K (half of the reported 4K) from the advance number last week (623K).
Agree with ZackAttack that these adjustments are trivial when we are putting this many people on unemployment each week, but I'm getting tired of the games they are playing with advanced and revised numbers.
Continued claims peaked ? More than 621k got a job last week ?
I doubt it.
right. It's possible for 100% of the population to be unemployed but no longer eligible for benefits. Then you go into the hidden unemployment bucket, but you are not represented as collecting unemployment.
There's still a class of people who never made it back into the market after the dot-bomb event, and they are not counted at all.
We're setting ourselves up for another "jobless" recovery unrecovery.
At some point u6 just exceeds unreality and 1 out of 4 of those capable of work being unemployed or grossly underemployed gets hard to hide.
I suggest we blame them and characterize them as lazy bums who just don't want to work. We'll all feel better about that.
/sardonic gripe off
--bh
the Hoi Unempolloied are getting restless, just go try and find a job after you've been given the heave ho, not so easy nowadays...
Spinning positive on CNBC. Continuing claims not at record high.
Of course, the talking heads prolly don't realize that about 600k of unemployed who exhausted their benefits are still unemployed but not counted as such.
Costco same stores down 7%? That's the number, kiddies.
These figures are of those filing claims, no one underemployed or have exhausted claims are counted. I understand our government is hiring and in my parts I see the IRS is hiring new agents.
Juvenal,
It's true. There is a perception that your were not top tier, keepable. You are second rate, having been let go, and even if companies were hiring, they don't want to hire you. They still want to poach people from other companies than hire someone out of work.
I also know a lot of firms, accounting and legal, who have seeded their employees in public announcements (and therefore seeded their industry rivals as well) that they will be cutting the most unprofitable, unproductive people first.
Say you get laid off with one large firm. Does the competitor firm want to hire you? After-all, it's common knowledge that only the most non-productive unprofitable people were let go...
It marks you and its pretty unfair.
Hence, the new job creation of $10-15 jobs on the horizon...only, I don't see those either.
--bh
pigged...
Counterpointer (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/4/2009 - 7:36 am
Juvenal - it's longer-frame even than hi-tech not matching up. The entire span of recorded history is only a thin layer of slime over the deep sea of the paleolithic. That's the make-up.
LOL, yes it a perpetual source of fascination to me that the education and technology of 2009 AD is incompatible with the moral behavior of 10,000 BC.
Claims represent only some 60%, so the actual add is 1 million plus and the total, at least, 11 million plus. Adding 11/140 to the 5+% one gets somne 13%.
I better go close my puts. The market will sky for at least a month on this news.
MaryAnn,
Sure. IRS has a huge budget now for Revenue Exam Agents. They have been given a mandate, actually one that started in the last 2 years of the Bush admin, to go out and actually enforce taxes, and they (congress) actually funded g-d forbid the IRS to carry out this mandate.
On the other hand, the hiring process is usually 9-12 months from the time you submit your application...although some areas are being streamlined.
I'm sure given a choice between a gs7 or unemployment, many people would jump at the opportunity to have a govie job.
fine. But there are not 600K govie jobs being offered every month.
Not 60K.
Maybe 20K. maybe.
--bh
How did Tim G qualify for a 1.6M house based on a 170K+ salary?
Some retailers
Same-store sales [SSS] (actual % gain/loss vs. consensus):
Cato Corp (CTR) -3% vs. -1.5%.
Children's Place (PLCE) -9% vs. -1.6%.
Costco (COST) -7% vs. -6.3%.
Fred's (FRED) +0.2% vs. +1.5%. **
Hot Topic (HOTT) -6.4% vs. -4.8%.
Limited (LTD) -7% in-line. *
Stage Stores (SSI) -7.2% vs. -6.8%.
The Buckle (BKE) +13.4% vs. +11.6%. ***
Wet Seal (WTSLA) -8.4% vs. -9.7%. *
Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) -20.7% vs. -20.4%.
American Apparel (APP) -10% vs. -4%.
Bon-Ton Stores (BONT) -12.1% vs. -8%.
Abercrombie (ANF) -28% vs. -23.4%.
Aeropostale (ARO) +19% vs. +10.1%. ***
Gap (GPS) -6% vs. -5%.
Macy's (M) -9.1% vs. -9%.
Dillard's (DDS) -12% vs. -7%.
JC Penney (JCP) -8.2% vs. -9%. *
Kohl's (KSS) -0.4% vs. -5%. *
Nordstrom (JWN) -13.1% vs. -14.2% *
Ross Stores (ROST) +4% vs. +2.3%. ***
Saks (SKS) -26.6% vs. -13.3%.
Target (TGT) -6.1% vs. -3.7%.
TJX Cos (TJX) +5% vs. +3.6% ***
** = Sales grew less than expected
*** = Sales grew more than expected
The rest all saw sales decline more than expected.
That's 20K a year, not a month.
--bh
Speculation I've read is 100K new govie workers is the upper limit, and that's over the next 4 years.
So do the math. Can this administration just create new federal jobs to blunt the steady march of unemployment.
right.
--bh
if you havent checked it out already, dshort has the 4 crashes ("the 4 bad bears") as four-voice polyphony mp3.
http://www.dshort.com/articles/2009/bear-music-polyphony.html
i close my eyes and see the movie "decasia"
Decasia - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"There is a reasonable chance that claims have peaked for this cycle, but it is still too early to be sure, and if so, continued claims should peak soon."
It will be interesting to see if Robert Gordon, a Northwestern University macroeconomist and one of seven members of the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Analysis, is correct in his assertion that the U.S. recession is over based on his hypothesis that in every recession since 1974, the peak in jobless claims came within weeks of the bottom of the recession. Gordon thinks we've already seen the peak in claims.
"Another Economist Says Recession Is Over"
Boom2Bust.com » Blog Archive » Another Economist Says Recession Is Over
blackhat (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/4/2009 - 8:15 am
So do the math. Can this administration just create new federal jobs to blunt the steady march of unemployment.
Isn't that private-to-public wealth and tax base transfer the entire platform of the Obananomics we're now practicing? Behold the power of fiat.
Bucky's got some mojo... but the long bond... Jas, you're shit-outta-luck.
Boom2Bust.com,
oh, I agree. Should be very interesting given the length and duration of this recession, and will likely be questionable given the relevance of "emerging" from one recession to simply enter another, all in the same year.
--bh
7 million people on the dole.... yep, we should hit peak earnings later this year
As people fall off the unemployment benefit list the Black market economy will grow. Consider a cash market could bring a 30% lower wage and the worker would still have the about the same buying power. Cash and no debt, the new king.
On the other hand,
If in fact the Mission is Accomplished, then I get on to preparing for inflation for the next 20 years.
Glad that whole recession-thing is behind us.
--bh
CR,
When are you Sierra bound next?
if you havent checked it out already, dshort has the 4 crashes ("the 4 bad bears") as four-voice polyphony mp3.
Reminds me a little of Prokofiev's Toccata.
curious (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/4/2009 - 5:51 am
Anybody know how furloughs are treated?
I believe it is approximately one-eighth mile, or 200 yards.
Seriously, do people still get furloughed?
Picking up on a previous thread regarding Hoenig - for every interest payer there is an interest receiver. One persons gain is another persons loss. The difference is one of timing. A quick drop in interest rates changes borrowers behavior quicker than it does lenders (savers) behavior. However, in time low interest rates actually have a negative effect on consumption. The borrowers have done their thing but going forward as savers discover that they are making no returns on their investments and are being forced to dip into capital they will begin to cut back. This time around the cut back by savers will more than offset the increase in spending by borrowers since for many borrowers their decision to borrow and spend is not a function of interest rates but capacity.
Thread music:
YouTube -
About 20 years ago I was in Alleghany, in the remote north of California's Gold Country, and as I drove through town 2 dogs chased me, so I stopped the car and let them have me. I suspect no car had ever afforded them the honor, and they didn't know what to do.
Some of you remind me of those canines, as you are busy chasing winnings on Wall^Street denominated in dollars...
blackhat (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/4/2009 - 8:28 am
If in fact the Mission is Accomplished, then I get on to preparing for inflation for the next 20 years.
Under the previous regime public bagholders took the losses and private parties got the rewards. This will be exactly the opposite, except for a special protected class of oligarchs and political elite. Oh, and there will be no rewards.
In other wonderful news, GOOG PRICE TARGET LIFTED TO $560 from $450.
So a handful of millions are terminally unemployed. Just watch CNBC and... WORSHIP EXCESS .
Costco same store down 7%.
Target same store down 6%.
Numbers that tell the story.
What does this sentence mean from the report?
States reported 2,347,218 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending May 16, an increase of 161,355 from the prior week. EUC weekly claims include both first and second tier activity.
Is this in addition to the seasonally-adjusted 6,735,000? If so, does this make the comparison of continued claims to the percentage in 1982 and 1975 an apples-to-oranges comparison? It also makes the numbers much worse than advertised.
I feel like an idiot for investing everything I had in Latvian Bonds, but my Madagascarian money man told me it was a mortal lock...
I'm finding in my small business regular joe's out of jobs and no cash are trying things unethical and border line illegal that would have never happened if we had not had a crash that has affected everyone from the banker to the candlestick maker.
My small bank has reduced staff, retiring everyone retirement age, and now i'm seeing temps at minimum wage replace career employee's.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Thu, 6/4/2009 - 7:51 am
Employment is much less important in a financial innovation eCONomy.
This one almost gets past TPTB doublespeak... but it should be called financial novation economy to be nearer the truth.
novation n. agreement of parties to a contract to substitute a new contract for the old one. It extinguishes (cancels) the old agreement. A novation is often used when the parties find that payments or performance cannot be made under the terms of the original agreement, or the debtor will be forced to default or go into bankruptcy unless the debt is restructured. While voluntary, a novation is often the only way any funds can be paid. (See: accord and satisfaction)
(source: novate) legal definition of novate). novate) synonyms by the Free Online Law Dictionary.
Most secrets are hidden in plain sight.
The new 'good' job: 12 bucks an hour
In the Midwest, communities race to replace dwindling auto jobs with renewable energy ones, but workers will have to sacrifice on their pay.
From: CNN Biz
This is bad on so many levels that are so obvious that I won't bother to point them out.
Grand Theft Auto: How Stevie the Rat bankrupted GM
MWC News - A Site Without Borders - - Grand Theft Auto: How Stevie the Rat bankrupted GM
We have been living in a Simulated Economy for far too long.
What is happening is an image war That won, and the Simulated Economy will return to its former glory.
Damned the numbers.
--bh
How sacrosanct is the minimum hourly wage standard in an era of unabated plunging wages in the maximum hourly wage?
This will play itself out. 50 years from now people won;t be looking at the week to week unemployment figures. they be saying unemployment continued to rise and spending dropped...this caused further pressure on businesses and unemployment continued to climb.....ad nauseum... Double dipping is just so rude
Why don't they use U6 for the real damage?
Its like a surgeon only looking at half your chart and saying "looks fine to me"
Side Anecdotal: Friend in OH graduated with Chem E degree in June. He's had no luck on an actual job, so he started looking in the last month or so for an internship with not a single call back.
He told me last night that he is going down to the local KFC to ask for a job (he knows a manager there)
Most of the commentatoes are smart enough to ignore the DJIA as meaningless propaganda noise due to the constant changing of it's 30 component stocks. 2 of the 30 changed this week. 14 of the 30 have changed since i was in college in 1994.
therefore, anyone who makes point with a historical comparison of the Dow is either:
i found this link showing the changes in the Dow over time.
History of the Dow - Timeline of Companies
I am perpetually amazed that this number is constantly trumpeted and accepted in all forms of media. I may even be more amazed by the silly DJIA than i am by the WSJ and Bloomturd saying SP500 PE is 14-15 when it is in fact closer to 130.
Dow Jones 30 Pieces Of Silver
How sacrosanct is the minimum hourly wage standard in an era of unabated plunging wages in the maximum hourly wage?
Pressure on that really depends on if you're paying tax on it...if you are then of course people will split the difference between employee/employer. Min wage is broken today in most countries with either tax avoidance or due to legitimacy of the worker. illegal workers have no rights, so they get no minimum wage.
adding people desperate for a job into the mix and you will have a fight to the bottom. This really sounds like its going to get a lot worse
FR,
Novations require agreement of both parties of the contract. I certainly didn't agree to the new deal. And I think a lot of other prudent people didn't agree either.
This is a swindle on top of a swindle. A total rip-off. In general, for any contract to be binding, both parties must receive CONsideration. Offer and acceptance CONcepts have been ignored too.
Financial innovation = financial sham 99% of the time. Let the banks and their bondholders novate without me and the government.
Talked to a Ph.D that was digging his new job working graveyard @ 7-11.
He advised me to step clear of the mindfield, right next to the slurpee machine.
So much gloom. Anyone look at this from a "positive" point of view?
IMHO, remember people were complaining that some jobs are way overpaid back in the boom days? Or jobs that require little knowledge / training / IQ is both plentiful and people are making gobs of money?
My position is that those jobs are evaporating fast. My hope is that this circle of turd jobs is starting to include the over-hyped financial-MBA and realtor jobs.
Of course there'll be collateral damage to good people with good skills. I hope that the economy turnaround will quickly re-employ these people and minimize their pain.
If you want me to sympathize people who've never put in the education and training or don't produce socially beneficial work and expect to be paid six figures and half a mil. I cannot find sympathy for them.
This is the positive spin for this employment reset. Maybe now we'll also get less smart young kids going into financial-innovation (read: economic illusionist) majors and careers and more into work that will improve our lives, not destroy them.
The Belmont Stakes is a mile and a half. THere must be some furlongs in there somewhere. We show the race on tape delay, after we lock the doors.
Interesting that dollar is up and gold is recovering.
Costco same store down 7%.
Target same store down 6%.
You left out BJ's. They are down 6.8% as well.
Costco, Target, BJ's All Miss Mark (Update2) | Top Business News | Financial Articles & Investing News | TheStreet.com
So much gloom. Anyone look at this from a "positive" point of view?
Please feel free to post something positive...but let post it with some facts.
I was wondering. You mentioned once that every percentage point in unemployment would lead to one percentage point in extra Mortgage delinquencies. But you also stated that this is conventional wisdom as long as employment remains below 8 or 9 %. We now seem to have passed that point. Are delinquencies accelerating? Or is it too early to tell?
Would it be possible to produce a graph (YES! a graph!) on this?
Cheers,
m
They're not counting all the students who just graduated.
Someone above wrote of a Chem Eng grad who couldn't even find an internship and is about to try KFC.
My youngest daughter just graduated from Yale Law, and has no job yet. She wants to do government or public-interest work. Until this year, Yale itself supported many public-interest legal activities with its endowment wealth, but with that down about 30% it has had to cut back there. And of course all state governments are cutting back programs. Fortunately, she has nearly zero debt, unlike most of her contemporaries, who are in a truly pitiable situation.
do realize that there are two levels at play here. The instinctive, animal level, where we
want to punish those who have done us wrong, while those who have done us wrong have done it
following their animal desires. There is also the rational level, of which to I am
referring to above. Realistically, I know the beast in us will take over and this will end
like it did in France in the 1790's. I will, however, not be the one holding the sword.
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I honestly have started looking for a new job every time a company i've worked for had any lay offs.
Never been laid off myself, but if your company is looking you have to go before recruiters start asking you "are you currently employed?" and you have to say no. Maybe I'm just paranoid.