Homebuilder Cancellation Rate
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 06/02/2009 - 2:39pm (149 comments)
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Knife-catchers are going all-in.
In 'Normal' times, are most of those cancellations because the buyer cant qualify for a loan? When the bubble popped I think a lot of people were canceling because they saw the prices starting to drop, so they were delaying their purchase to get a better price later...
Hey Shadow, I see you're still there.
Your dead netbook, what kind is it and how much do you want for it? I've been meaning to play with one. There's an email contact in my profile.
Knife-catching, the Great American pastime.
--bh
did the credit crunch cause homebuilders to require more skin in the game?
Actually, for me this is good news. It's not the bottom, but either people are not signing contracts they can not meet, or they want the damm place and will live there for many years.
Do they have fewer cancellations because they have fewer sales?
At lower prices?
Now it appears cancellation rates might be returning to more normal levels.
CR, you are smarter and more polite but... bullshit. Normal is lower than these levels and cancellations are self selecting besides.
Aren't fewer people looking and signing contracts ?
Aren't the penalties for cancellation going up ?
It used to be in Brevard County that the builders only wanted 1k down, especially if you said you wanted to live there. If I were advising a builder, I'd want at least 10X that down, before i lifted a single shovel of dirt, on a lower priced house, and 20 or 30X that on a higher priced place.
'Course, I'm not advising any developers these days, not even small ones!
Hey Byz - the netbook is an Acer Aspire One - but if I were you I would buy a new one with a rotating HD - This one only takes a SSD and that is not a good idea for running the OS.... I found instructions with photos on how to replace the SSD, but you have to take it apart from the top to do it and I dont know if it could be put back together again - They are not really made to be maintained...
In hard times, typically a developer will negotiate with you. It's been so long since I've dealt with a new house, I have no idea whether this is still true.
Beginning to see sales under 100k for decent sized condos.
Four homes sold, one cancellation, yup, 25%
Hunh?
It would be interesting to see the contracts and the deposits taken, to see if the comparison is apples/apples. I suspect not.
A descendant of Brazil's Portuguese Emperor prince somebody died in the Air France plane crash. I guess the monarchs are not so good at protecting their own as they used to be.
lawyerliz - Hunh?
We just went through a I'm geeker than you are spell.
For once I'm so glad to loose.
Did they find out where the plane went down?
Does anybody check these builder numbers to see if they are accurate. I bet not.
All of the media, the trade assn's etc are all trying to put out some positive spin - nobody wants to talk about the rail and truck traffic, the diesel usage, the port traffic, etc... The contraction in auto sales is a really big deal though - think of all the lost sales tax revenue... not to mention that the volume is not enough to continue to support the manufacturing and retailing if this Great Recession keeps dragging on for another 2 years...
Like duhh.
The bottom has been in for a while now. Green shits don't cancel, they buy now or they know they will miss the bottom.
I was porked.
ShadowInventory,
Also buying a car on credit makes sense if the interest rate is lower than the interest rate of return you can safely and reliably get on your savings from say a bank FDIC insured CD. If you can make more by keeping the money you would use to buy that car in the bank, then certainly using credit for the car makes sense. Otherwise I agree, I plan to buy all my cars from now on with cash. Already that has lowered my expectations by $10-15,000, and I will be buying cheaper cars.
I did not even know that a "descendant of Brazil's Portuguese Emperor prince" existed. But yea, I guess the monarchy is not what is used to be.
At the same time, it is still very scary that planes can still fall out of the sky, and the loss of life and potential is very sad.
I am looking at the PATA mod now but, am persuaded enough I don't want it as my next project (I'm currently poor, I need to actually get a working box out of my next build 'fo sho) but if you don't get rid of it in the next couple months, I will probably be interested in getting it just to play with the hardware.
Ya liz you need to read the last thread... although since you are not a programmer it might be all foreign to you... The Brazilian AF did find a debris field and they are sending some surface ships which will arrive tonight or tomorrow - no signs of life though... Since the plane did not send any emergency messages, I think it's likely that it went in out of control, as opposed to a controlled ditching...
Ahhhh...another "green shoot"...waiting for the regulars to spray a few gallons of roundup on it
Liz,
They found debris off the coast of Brazil.
M -
Cha-ching, and that is why I'm slowly trying to convince myself it is time to buy. If only I could find a car I like and can see myself driving for 10+ years.
At least we are at the point that is possible. Referring to the real improvements in quality from the last couple of threads.
I thought you were going to sleep KK!
I skimmed that stuff and haven't the faintest idea what anybody meant. The word "Fortran" is vaguely familier
from what was going on with other people, not me, in college.
I used to hate to deal with computers, I have no intuitive feel for them and they always seem like idiot children to me and never can go from one tiny point to another without detailed instructions. My mind isn't like that at
all and leaps around peering at things from all different directions. The few times I've tried something I ended up in mindless rage. I would actually rather read the IRS code than anything to do with computers, and that's saying something. Now I can blog 'n' all without having to know anything about them, and that's the way
I like it to be.
ShadowInventory - I hate programming, I like to look at my job as making people and computers play nicely together. My only problem is the D*** people.
If I were you, I would canvas the field and decide what I wanted, then look for one that has less than 10k miles on it... maybe offer 40% of the new price or so... see what happens...
The should have had Captain Sully flying that plane. There would have been many survivors. American Pilots are the best.
"Ahhhh...another "green shoot"...waiting for the regulars to spray a few gallons of roundup on it."
~~~~
The bright light of reality and the lack of liquidity will kill it soon enough ...
I have begun to believe the rest of the market is beginning to see the death of new home construction as a wonderful thing.
CR, could you hoist some of my truly dismal predictions from the last contest from the archives and point out I was a tad optimistic compared to what we seeing in 2009?
In 2012, only 12 bankerdomes will be constructed- of which one fall through on delivery- of course, by then we will once again be contemplating the dreaded mineshaft gap.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"All of the media, the trade assn's etc are all trying to put out some positive spin - nobody wants to talk about the rail and truck traffic, the diesel usage, the port traffic, etc... The contraction in auto sales is a really big deal though - think of all the lost sales tax revenue... not to mention that the volume is not enough to continue to support the manufacturing and retailing if this Great Recession keeps dragging on for another 2 years... "
?????????????/
You aren't making any sense. The reason truck traffic, diesel usage and port traffic don't get any play is because they are lagging indexes. Auto sales have not declined for 3 months now.
Lets face it, thanks to the zombification of the credit markets, alot that was frozen up has become unfrozen hence stopping the recession. Even I was surprised by May strength. Time for the perma-bears to mea culpa for now. Now time for something else to blow up and restart the panic.
crispy, need a GREEN SHOOTS fix ? How 'bout VLO ?
lawyerliz - I thought you were going to sleep KK!
Trying to get sleepy, or people start listing me on their ignore list.
Sooner or later one will happen, of that I am sure.
It was actually nice to just shoot the breeze, without feeling like the SHTF, maybe we are just adjusting and being complacent.
mmckinl,
Been saving something for you (from Mauldin's newsletter quoting Dennis Gartman's newsletter):
"Canada is a wonderful place to have a nasty gash on one's forehead stitched, or to break one's nose in a game of pick-up baseball; but have cancer, or need eye surgery, or want an MRI, and the business of medicine in Canada and/or the UK breaks down badly in favour of medical care here in the US. For example... and we wish to thank The Investor's Business Daily for the data noted here this morning...
"... here in the US men and women survived cancer at an average of just a bit better than 65%. In England only 46% survive. In the US, 93% of those diagnosed with diabetes receive treatment within six months; in Canada only 43% do, and in the UK only 15% do! For those seniors needing a hip replacement and getting one within six months, 15% get it done in the UK; 43% get it done in Canada ... and in the US 90% do! For those waiting to see a medical specialist, 23% of those in the US get in within four weeks, while 57% in Canada have not yet done so, and in the UK 60% are still waiting after four weeks.
"When it comes to proper medical equipment, in the US there are 71 MRI or CT scanners available per million people. In Canada there are but 18, and in the UK there are only 14! Ah, but the best figure of all is this: 11.7% of those 'seniors' in the US with 'low incomes' say they are in excellent health, which in and of itself sounds rather low ... rather disconcerting ... and an indictment of the system itself, doesn't it? But in Canada only 5.8% do!
How come there were no people type cries for help??? Only the machines complaining?
I especially like this gaming of the market by large banks holding foreclosures off the market to chum out the investors- note the falling returns as the rental markets saturates.
How many homes do banks really own? - Monday, June 1, 2009 | 2 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun
Now comes yet another lump downward, as Las Vegas reclaims the bubble crown from Phoenix.
Someday this war's gonna end...
bearly - honestly, the month of May was not very strong for us. We had roundup sprayed on us, hopefully May will be better.
The recovery is going to be a horrible joke. At least we avoided a depression, but we get years of stagnation....I guess the lesser of two evils
"This one only takes a SSD and that is not a good idea for running the OS"
Sounds like you are not using the best OS. SSDs are very fast for "read" slow for "write." They also are supposed to use much less power, extending battery life. It is key to keep in mind that a netbook is not quite supposed to be a portable.
For systems with >4GB RAM Micosoft requires OEMs ship with Vista, which is a bad idea. For <4GB MSFT allows XP wich is more suitable for a netbook. The ideal though for a netbook, would be a low footprint Linux variant. Assuming your main purpose is to launch a browser and access net content.
Yeah, I sure all that med stuff is true, but actually people live longer in most places that have socialized health care. . It may be the treatment is doing more harm than good in many cases.
Maybe it only seeeems longer.
Eras End - Time for the perma-bears to mea culpa for now.
OK, I can see that, but just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water.
Has anything been fixed, or are we just kicking the can? Oh, and decreasing our assumed net-worth by 155K to 550K depending on what you look at?
Ugh, more computer speak.
At least we avoided a depression
Way too soon to be making that call.
*hopefully June will be better
TJ and The Bear - thanks for the uplifting words
Maybe they're getting fewer cancellations because people actually have to prove they can afford the loan, which acts as a bullshitter filter.
Blackhalo the netbook was running the 'linpus' version of Linux that it came with... xfce environment - right out of the box, no mods... SSD lasted about 5 months....
TJ and The Bear
The only important factor is life expectancy ... the US sucks ...
The health care system in the US costs twice as much as those in Canada and GB ...
Blackhalo- a low footprint Linux variant. Assuming your main purpose is to launch a browser and access net content.
Now where is that head banger emotion con when you need it. :
Time to crash and then someone is running a week wacker, Did I mention I really want a SFH out in the middle of no where.
Liz would you like to come up and look at my shell scripts sometime?
The US treats way to many cancer patients. Many of them are dead already. Extending their lives a few months isn't worth it. Some cancers(colon, mouth, breast, throat ete ete) have real hope for cures, but helping somebody with Brain cancer to live a extra 6-10 months isn't worth it.
If you had locked in a 30-year loan at 4.25%, would you cancel right now?
"It was actually nice to just shoot the breeze, without feeling like the SHTF, maybe we are just adjusting and being complacent. "
Yeah, it was fun getting all nostalgic on the last thread just like in the good old days of CR when a thread would go on for 1000 comments and when the current subject was beaten to death we would talk about gardening, canning, guns, and survivalist stuff. Wait, that was back in January and the good old days of halosan. I miss haloscan.
Could be LESS knife catchers with their hands out? Looks like fewer contract offers being made....IMHO
What SSD, what's OEM? OS is operating system, right? I'm not quite sure what that is. RAM is Random Access memory. Really don't know what that is either, except more of it is apparently better.
A low footprint Linux variant????
No don't explain. I wouldn't understand anyway, and if I did, I'd promptly forget.
Just want to point out how computer illiterate some of us are.
Surely not just Me????
crispyandcole,
Dude, you are really kicking us bears while we're down!
I find your comments pretty ridiculous though. Really, I mean you could have said the same things during the initial stages of the booming economy coming out of the dot-com bust. "Look everybody, it's not as bad as you silly uber-bears claim!". Of course it was bad, and the severity of the situation was merely papered over by economic activity from a mortgage credit bubble. Now it's a similar situation where the reality of the situation is being papered over by a government spending/borrowing bubble. The problem is that so-called economic growth built upon un-servicable debt is destined to be tomorrow's economic contraction.
I'm surprised you fail to recognize that things are really bad, in a historic, unprecedented way. You seem like a pretty smart guy.
Normal cancellation rates will return ust in time for 80% of the homebuilders to already be BK.
What's a shell script? It that like an etching???
TJ-
Just had a total hip replacement myself a couple weeks ago and vouch for that. and scheduling was a piece of cake. 10 days from calling had my appointment. Surgery could have done 3 weeks after that but I elected 4 weeks due to my own schedule. Walked in on a Friday AM and walked out (okay w/ a cane) on Sunday AM w/ spanking brand new titanium hip. 5-6 days later even cane was history. Absolute amazing, can't even begin to imagine the hassles in UK or other countries.
"SSD lasted about 5 months.... "
Should be well within warranty? Pretty easy fix, if you have done it before. SSD pretty pricey though.
[*hopefully June will be better]
What line of business ?
ShadowInventory - Liz would you like to come up and look at my shell scripts sometime?
So how has that line worked out for you in the past? (Dr. Phil voice)
SLick Dog - I sure hope that was a Zimmer hip you got - Zimmer is one stock that I am keeping for the long term...
Don't blame haloscan, blame CR for a surfeit of posts. We just start blathering and then we're pigged.
Need to eat. Need to go watch NCIS.
CR, not sure if I would qualify this as a green shoot. It only makes sense that the level of cancels would decline as the absolute level of transactions decreases.
If they could combine high contracts translating into high sales, that would be positive, but as it is, it looks to me more like the few borrowers who are left are the solid buyers; the froth has been removed. e.g. 10 contracts turning into 5 sales is better than 4 contracts turning into 3 sales.
Regarding the pending sales number earlier, that number appears to be very volatile, I guess is the word. Starting in 9-08, the index was up y-o-y, then in 10-08 it was down, 11-08 down, 12-08 up, 1-09 down, 2-09 down, 3-09 up, and 4-09 up.
So on 8 of the past months, it was up y-o-y for 4 of those (including the two most recent).
Back to your thesis on the volume of transactions, much probably has to do with foreclosure transactions increasing, but some probably has to do with the weather, when the weekends fall in a given month, if your home NFL football team is in town (not kidding about this, it does have an effect), etc. Just doesn't seem like a very predictive indicator.
Also, as the closing timeline gets extended, wouldn't the number of transactions in pending status naturally increase?
That line works when the chick wants her computer fixed, or wants you to do some of her homework - then she is outta there with the cool guy from the Fine Arts program...
"What's a shell script? It that like an etching??? "
Do you really want to know?
A batch of common commands rolled into a single executable would be my first guess. Good for automating repetitive tasks.
ShortCourage - 4:20 pm
Exactly correct ... "papered over by economic activity from a mortgage credit bubble. Now it's a similar situation where the reality of the situation is being papered over by a government spending/borrowing "
The Reaganomics Trickle Down Greenspan Uber Bubble has burst ...
The bubble had been growing for over 25 years ...
"The health care system in the US costs twice as much as those in Canada and GB ..."
That is because they treat them more as public goods(roads, schools, sewers ete ete) .
Health Care has always been a thorn in the side of the market liberals and generally 'capitalism' in nature.
GB/Canada don't even have the best systems either, several other countries even do better. America is struggling now because its people are treated like crap and have for years. We don't even have a domestic defense anymore. Our entire army is for international corporate use and only their use. A corporate army it is.
Yet we are brainwashed we are the best and free-est in the world. Please. We got sold down the river 25 years ago and still have not figured it out yet.
"Need to eat. Need to go watch NCIS."
New episode or repeat?
Batting eyelashes "Ooooohhh your scripts are so - complex - and you have so many - BIG - variables too.... With some very thick substitutions - ahhhhhh"
Michael - "we would talk about gardening, canning, guns, and survivalist stuff."
Well I got all that down except for the gardening, I used to have a green thumb, but I lost it. Not enough light in my condo and I got tired of dead plants.
If the SHTF, the real point will be how good is your aim and what is your ammo. Don't want to go there.
Liz,
SSD is a solid state drive, like a big fat flash drive, all electronic.
Surely not just Me???? - LL
No, but this place is a safe zone for middle-aged nerds, me included. A shell script is basically a simple program that automates a series of tasks, so you don't have to type in the commands one by one, day in and day out. Saves time.
A batch of (batch?) common commands (?) rolled (?) into a single executable (?)
Is there a way to say that in English?
[Now it's a similar situation where the reality of the situation is being papered over by a government spending/borrowing bubble]
I agree.
However, here's the case for hope. IF some revolutionary new device/innovation (based on science - nothing financial) that truly increases productivity bails us out while the USG stalls the crash, it's worth the extra debt to keep the system bolted together. Otherwise we're way more fucked than ever.
Eras End 4:25 pm
Yep ...
"At least we avoided a depression, but we get years of stagnation....I guess the lesser of two evils "
Not once inflation starts kicking in with a vengeance. I would rather have depression than stagflation, as least the decline in the standard of living is more obvious.
Sorry to hear about the slow month, honestly, I know a lot of businesses out there that are really suffering, and seeing none of the turnaround the govt and MSM is pumping.
ShadowInventory -
Batting eyelashes "Ooooohhh your scripts are so - complex - and you have so many - BIG - variables too.... With some very thick substitutions - ahhhhhh"
LoL, always set up a back door, you never know when it's good to "get the F. out"
Not sure what solid state is. (No longer lots of transisters?) Dont' know what a flash drive is. Is that the memory thing that sticks in the side of the computer.
I do know what a zero and a one is.
crispy was one of the few people who was bullish here too... now that he has capitulated perhaps the market can finally break through the 200 day ma...
I believe the bulk of longevity increases has resulted from decreased infant mortality.
25 years ago I had a health economist tell me you could get 80% of the benefit of modern medicine if all you did was make antibiotics available to everyone. MRSA and other resistant strains may have changed that of course.
Solid state IS transistors - as opposed to a rotating magnetic platter in a traditional hard drive...
Is there a way to say that in English? -- LL
OK, here's an example. Let's say every day you turn on the machine, load your word processor, your Bloomberg in another screen, and your favorite blogs and lolcats in other screens. You could write a script to do all that. You could also write a script to collect info for you can cram it into a spreadsheet, if you are doing analysis. That type of thing.
I never heard of it called a substitution before.
bearly
With peak oil the situation will only get worse ...
The system we have now is held together with the gravity of inertia,
denial, and lots of weapons ...
"The problem is that so-called economic growth built upon un-servicable debt is destined to be tomorrow's economic contraction."
Except this one won't last 5 years. Maybe 5 months. And the consequences will be much more severe, as we are in much weaker shape than after dot-com/9-11.
Don't care if NCIS is a repeat or not.
ghostfaceinvestah -
That is really the problem I'm seeing, the FED is doing generational loans on our tax dollars to bail out and create zombie banks, but I have seen nothing helping main street.
Of course I tend to see main street at 6 AM and all I really care about is the traffic is pretty good, so I can understand the disconnect in D.C. between the public and the lobbyist.
Liz,
I give up.
No don't explain. I wouldn't understand anyway, and if I did, I'd promptly forget.
lawyerliz
Some of you eager beavers just couldn't resist.
mhdoc -
25 years ago I had a health economist tell me you could get 80% of the benefit of modern medicine:
I always heard that if a doctor could prescribe exercise, it would make Viagra look like aspirin. The instant blockbuster.
After that, weight loss, then relaxation to reduce stress.
After that I think is the forms of cancer.
bearly,
I think there would be more hope, but government intervention is going to be counter-productive. There is less reason for long-term hope when they prop up failed businesses at the expense of everyone (and at the very unfair expense of well-run households and businesses).
I'm not saying government should do nothing. But to me it looks like they're doing something only for those (corporations, most especially financial ones) that are best connected.
And they are putting off the pain for politically expedient reasons (pain will come later when they are gone), not because it is in our best interest.
"No don't explain. I wouldn't understand anyway, and if I did, I'd promptly forget."
Well, I often forget that I am not at work or on slashdot, but they are abbreviations for some pretty common computer elements.
An SSD is a solid state drive. As in, it has no moving parts. They are supposed to be faster, cooler, more durable and use less power than the traditional hard drive, that has moving parts. Although apparently, not in this case.
OS is indeed operating system. There are many flavors although MicroSoft Widows is the most popular. Linux is an open source OS that is free to download, modify and distribute. Developers world wide contribute to it. It is often compared to free, as in free beer and free speech. The Linux flavor of OS is popular when you have a specific use, like a netbook rather than a, one size fits all.
Random access memory is correct in that it is the location where your computer might store temporary information. The hard drive or SSD being more permanent.
Alas, I know not how to load more than one thing at a time, altho I have heard rumors it is possible.
And I don't know how to work a spreadsheet.
I think I could learn that, it's like a matrix right?
"The problem is that so-called economic growth built upon un-servicable debt is destined to be tomorrow's economic contraction."
I should also mention that oil was $20 a barrel in Dec 2001 going into 2002, and didn't breach $40 until 5.2004. That is a lot of time of relatively cheap energy.
Now, 68 and climbing.
The should have had Captain Sully flying that plane. There would have been many survivors. American Pilots are the best.
Michael, as much as I admire the job Sully did, that is pure jingoistic bull shit. If Sully had been in the cockpit all would have still died. landing on a wide river on a calm day is a VERY different proposition than landing in the middle of the Atlantic in the middle of an intense storm. You ever been on the water with 40 foot seas? Not exactly a smooth runway.
Alas, I know not how to load more than one thing at a time, altho I have heard rumors it is possible.
And I don't know how to work a spreadsheet. - LL
I suspect my leg is being involuntarily lengthened.
lawyerliz - A batch of (batch?) common commands (?) rolled (?) into a single executable (?) Is there a way to say that in English?
Set up a note that when spoken sweetly to a computer in a language and tone they like, it will do line by line.
Otherwise, you might as well tell your ex-to-be to take out the damm trash, shut up and clean the bathroom.
the aspire one is a particularly bad one to upgrade.
I think some of the earlier asus models were equally difficult. You can buy a pci-e SSD up to 64gb i believe from newegg.
Its a pci-e mini ssd, not a pata or sata one on that model I'm fairly certain.
The plane might have broken up in midair - the reports said there were no emergency calls from the plane, it just disappeared from radar...
You have to remember how the global system works right now: "America" is burdened with the cost of creating this corporate army, that just isn't supposed to "protect" America, but Europe and Japan as well. We get the costs while they get lush benefits from not having to establish a army. Who is getting it rammed down?
The Pentagon could slash 30% of its budget and the US would have plenty in creating a strong domestic army.
I bet the Corporations could tell the truth and Americans would still do nothing.
ghostfaceinvestah,
Yep, all of this monetary and fiscal medicine is helping commodities recover faster than consumers!
Not a real effective treatment.
solid state uses some sort of different transistor that retains its state when power is off. its still a transistor though, just doesnt lose state.
When I saw what you have to do to replace the SSD, that's when I decided not to even try it... I have disassembled a few laptops before, but never successfully reassembled them... there are a lot of tiny parts in there, and with my geezer eyesight it didnt work out... Also I suspect that the factory uses some special jigs and clamps to hold things together during the asssembly...
That line works when the chick wants her computer fixed, or wants you to do some of her homework - then she is outta there with the cool guy from the Fine Arts program...
Fine Arts? What you got no hockey players there?
Sorry for the OT but this is just too good....
Merkel mauls central banks
Financial Times
02-Jun-2009
By Bertrand Benoit in Berlin and Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt
Unconventional monetary policies being pursued by the world's main central banks could aggravate rather than ease the economic crisis, Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, suggested on Tuesday.
Her surprisingly strong attack on the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank was remarkable coming from a leader who had so far scrupulously adhered to her country's tradition of never commenting on monetary policy.
"What other central banks have been doing must be reversed. I am very sceptical about the extent of the Fed's actions and the way the Bank of England has carved its own little line in Europe," she told a conference in Berlin.
InfoViewer: Merkel mauls central banks
You go girl
Liz - pipe down.
Slashdot? A computer blog?
My mother thinks I'm a computer genius, cause I can make a computer do things. Really.
She's scared to turn the fax machine on.
I really don't know any of that stuff, but I did like leading you on. I've gotten so far behind that it's prolly really impossible to catch up. And yet I can make my cell phone do a few things that the hub can't.
I think I could learn that, it's like a matrix right?
Like a great big tic-tac-toe...
a script is not reallya computer term.
when you call tech support or customer service some guy reads you a script.
a script is a list of statements, nothing more.
scripts in scripting languages for computers, are run with statements in a computer language (Say perl) instead of english. so these statement equivalents are things like "scrape Yahoo! for stock quotes, take those quotes out of the text, put it in a spreadsheet"
I guess that would be the easiest way to explain it.
dryfly - Fine Arts? What you got no hockey players there?
Heck, you need is the hockey stick, handle that right and the problem is cleaning up.
Slashdot is mandatory daily reading for Geeks... ( with a capital G)
Dirk,
I was being fescecious about Sully and all the hoopla at the time the MSM was pimping it to cover up coverage of the Tea Party protests. Just felt like throwing it in someones face.
"That is really the problem I'm seeing, the FED is doing generational loans on our tax dollars to bail out and create zombie banks, but I have seen nothing helping main street."
~~~~
Yep,
TPTB are taking care of their own ...
However with the depth and scope of the catastrophe there will soon be in-fighting ...
There is never enough money to go around ...
Nope, it's really not.
I needed one once for a case where there were 6 or 7 heirs, each of whom had different percentages of inheritance and different financial liabilities. I tried to figure it out by hand & then realized the spreadsheet thing
might work, so I asked the hub to do it and he did. Never needed it before or since.
Hey ghostface,
are you formerly "Gold Medal CMBX Driver" and several other handles?
Oh, like an acting script. I thought it was like different kinds of type faces.
Is there a way to say that in English?
====
No.
That will be $150 please.
signed,
Your computer consultant
"I should also mention that oil was $20 a barrel in Dec 2001 going into 2002, and didn't breach $40 until 5.2004."
~~~~
Say hello to peak oil ...
There are a ton on green shoots growing. If you don't believe me take a look:
Green Shoots
Eras End writes,
"You have to remember how the global system works right now: "America" is burdened with the cost of creating this corporate army, that just isn't supposed to "protect" America, but Europe and Japan as well. We get the costs while they get lush benefits from not having to establish a army. Who is getting it rammed down?
The Pentagon could slash 30% of its budget and the US would have plenty in creating a strong domestic army.
I bet the Corporations could tell the truth and Americans would still do nothing."
And you'll find all that information spelled out for you in this video documentary.
The Calling - Full HD Version
Google Videos Error
@ LL
If this is true, I'm actually shocked. I mean, word processors, spreadsheets, and databases are the Ancient Three Fundamental Killer Apps, yea verily of yore. I thought everybody in the electrifried world knew this stuff. Well, anyway, at least check in at slashdot once in a while. It's sort of a 'sentiment indicator' in the Nerd World.
I smell BACON !!!
Cheap talk from Ms. Merkel, whose constituents are dependent on exports, and whose banks are being supported by FRB swap lines.
jdogg13 -
There are a ton on green shoots growing. If you don't believe me take a look:
Need more zeros or its just not real money.
Oh, wait, they don't print those types of bills so for your J6P it's not real and doesn't really exist. Got it.
"Hey ghostface,
are you formerly "Gold Medal CMBX Driver" and several other handles?"
Nope, always had the same handle.
I was pretty much a deflationist until BB starting making his QE moves in Dec, then really jumped on the bandwagon on March 18th, when he announced his was going to literally corner the MBS market. Along with all the TALF revisions, PPIP, Maiden Lane, AIG, etc., and researching his past work, I realized this guy would stop at nothing, including destroying the currency, to avoid deflation.
I honestly don't think he knows what the impacts are going to be of his policy. As the old saying goes, when your only weapon is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. And he has spent years developing his anti-deflation hammer.
BTW, when I talk of destroying the currency, I mostly mean relative to real goods, like oil, commodities, etc. other govts are doing their own part to destroy their own currencies, to various degrees.
i do like the currencies backed by natural resources, like CAD and AUD.
Not a huge gold bug, but I can see the attraction.
Scrape??
Perl??
I know I'm being difficult, but I also know when communicating you have to pitch it to the level of
understanding out there.
I don't expect you to know what equitable subrogation is, or even a tort, or a HUD-1 or FIRPA or even
RESPA. Or an APR.
Hud-1 closing statements are being changed by our ever helpful government is a particularly hideous and incomprehensible way, by the way.
Who knows maybe I am just retarded.
"solid state uses some sort of different transistor that retains its state when power is off. its still a transistor though, just doesnt lose state."
Yeah just like the stuff in a memory stick key chain. NVRAM for non-volatile. Meaning it does not require power, or a charge to retain information. Not so sure I would call it a transistor in the literal sense of a PNP or NPN junction though, I may be wrong. Fundamentals of electronics was a long time ago.
@ LL
If this is true, I'm actually shocked. I mean, word processors, spreadsheets, and databases are the Ancient Three Fundamental Killer Apps, yea verily of yore. I thought everybody in the electrifried world knew this stuff. Well, anyway, at least check in at slashdot once in a while. It's sort of a 'sentiment indicator' in the Nerd World.
Scone - I have to admit I've never used a spreadsheet or a database either. Just MSWord. Well, I used to use WordPerfect back when every computer came loaded with it, but then every computer began coming loaded w/Word. I can't imagine what I'd need to use a spreadsheet for, but I do wish I knew the programs.
I believe C&Cole turned bull in Feb. and he was a bear over last couple years...could be wrong.. but a wager would sort it out....
Dirk,
Thanks..I couldnt see where any pilot had a chance to do anything in that disaster...
Here is goes satellite..use the 25 image animation which takes you back to Sunday and you can see a huge tstorm where this happened
Interactive GOES-12 (East) Infrared Weather Satellite Image Viewer
Who knows maybe I am just retarded. - LL
What I don't understand, is why you're asking? I mean, if you have no real interest in the subject? I'm not being snarky, I just don't see why you would want to acquire information that has no value to you? Just wondering.
"I can't imagine what I'd need to use a spreadsheet for, but I do wish I knew the programs."
spreadsheets revolutionised finance. Check out the Google aps SS if you are curious. If you ever took accounting in the old days where you had to enter numbers and calculate the bottom line...
Spreadsheets are to finance/accounting like E-Mail is to the mail room, or word processing to secretaries.
@ Outsider
Spreadsheets are easy to learn, and they can really help with household stuff and projects, even little things like planning a garden. If you have MS Office, it's probably already on your machine.
Spreadsheets are to finance/accounting like
That must be it. Believe me, my finances can easily be handled by pencil and paper.
@ Outsider
O.K., here's a good reason. Learning new stuff helps your brain hold on to its function in middle age and beyond. The brain need glucose and new information to keep those neurons fired. Otherwise, they die off and you get dumber.
Home prices and wages ...still deflating...so looks like he's not doing us any favors.
scone - yes, that's a good point. It really is exercise. I'm not much of an exercise lover, but I do agree with the premise.
Altho I have to say that my brain gets a good workout on this blog - not only exercise but also fun.
Thanks for the input - I value what you share. Your neurons fire more efficiently than mine do.
Your neurons fire more efficiently than mine do. - Outsider
It's the beer. Gets glucose into the brain like that.
Has anyone heard of any serious effort by those in Britain and Canada to revert to our system? Could it be that the majority are satisfied with the care and the prescrition drug benefits too?
Outsider (profile) wrote on Tue, 6/2/2009 - 7:59 pm
Scone - I have to admit I've never used a spreadsheet or a database either. Just MSWord. Well, I used to use WordPerfect back when every computer came loaded with it, but then every computer began coming loaded w/Word. I can't imagine what I'd need to use a spreadsheet for, but I do wish I knew the programs.
Spreadsheets are the best. Excel is so worth the time to learn. Anything that involves data -- ordering it, sorting it, mangling it, or looking it up in tables -- they make short work of. They do this thing where you can copy and paste things and the code changes to match the new location that is very hard to explain, but once you learn, is as easy as using a mouse.
Massively important tool, as world-changing as the web browser. Teach yourself the keyboard shortcuts and the cell reference conventions and the functions. Cannot underline what an important tool these things are. Solver and Data Pilots / Pivot Tables do some stuff that used to be straight up supercomputer chores, and every copy of the app can do all that.
if you listen to only one thing I tell you ever, learn to spreadsheet. In a world where computers are not a newfangled invention but a fact of life, learning to spreadsheet it like a new form of learning to write. Get literate.
OT,A stretch of commercial buildings on HWY 116 in town got boarded up today.Strip commercial,70's construction used to be a Mex restaurant and Antique store.A 100 yard plus strip.I have seen plenty of stuff for lease and both car dealerships were bust by january,but this is the first time I have seen boarded up storefronts on a very busy commercial street.If you are going to Bodega Bay or the Russian River from SF you almost certainly pass by.No one here is arguing recession/depression anymore...
BR -- If you're still around -- you have me sold.
I am going to start learning Excel.
BTW, are you female?
back in the day cancellations where good news as a builder then had an inventory home that they were likely able to resell amost immediately and for a higher price.
now a cancellation means inventory that may eventually get sold for a lower price
Rate of change in economy was so sharp in Q4 that I am not surprised to see elevated cancellations in Q4 v Q3 when there was moderation in past years in a seasonally weaker order period. I would be cautious that lower cancellations in Q1 were at least partially due to the drubbing that the backlog took during Q4. High orders and high cancellations are unstable. We should be moving to very low gross orders (alrady there) with very low cancellations (getting there, but Q1 is just a hiccup).