THis is excellent news and it's how free markets are supposed to work when meddling intervention doesn't get involved to prop up asset prices above natural values. Not permitting CRE debt to fail dooms the tenant businesses and then the landowner fails in the long run anyhow. Just drags it out...
"Going back to today's ridiculous close, the chart below shows it all: the complete tape painting volume spike at the very end of the day speaks for itself. And as computers now simply issue forced stock recall orders to each other, painting the tape wet with manipulative intent and volume spikes into the last 20 minutes of trading every day, their human creators are left on the sidelines, trying to outshout each other as to the reason for why the market keeps rising while the economy keeps tumbling."
Rite Aid Corp. has canceled its annual convention in Baltimore ... one of Baltimore’s biggest conventions in recent years, bringing 6,000 people to town and pumping $6 million from direct spending into the city in 2008 ... The company had originally booked 14,500 hotel room nights for its nine-day expo in mid-August ...
I only have one question? Why would a company have an annual convention like this? I mean what is the point?
If it is for their stockholders - let THEM buy their own rooms....
If it is so suppliers can show off new products - let them pay for it ALL [or risk having their competitors show instead]...
I can't imagine it is to show 'customers' their new product offerings... I mean who is gonna go to a 'show' like that? Helen - grab the kids & pack the car we're going to B'More to see what new cool stuff our Rite Aid is gonna have.
Anyone understand why this 'convention' ever was in the first place? TIA
Damn; got porked! I'm not going to re-post my findings on health care in the 1960s... but I'll post some more excerpts from interesting article (that apparently Google Books came up with?
Surgery was a major focus of hospitals in the 1960s, accounting for more than one-third of all short-stay hospital admissions, yet less than one-half of all surgery was performed by board-certified specialists (Andersen and Anderson, 1967). "Is this operation necessary?" asked The New Republic (Lembke, 1963). "Should doctors tell the truth to cancer patients?" asked the Ladies Home Journal (1961). "What is the patient really trying to say?" asked Time (1964) magazine, on the need to improve doctor-patient communication.
... There were two possible models for reorganization of health care in the 1960s into a system that might more nearly meet the needs of changing morbidity on the one hand and the efficient deployment of expensive technology on the other. Unfortunately, neither was generally available. The first model would have been to develop self-contained service systems, that is, encourage the development of what we now call health maintenance organizations (HMOs) or managed care systems. However, even in the late 1960s, only 2 percent of the entire population were covered through prepaid group practice (renamed HMOs in 1970) (Stevens, 1971).
... The second possible vehicle for reorganization was communitywide planning, regulation, and priority-setting by government or quasi-government agencies. However, here the idiosyncratic structure of the U.S. hospital system militated against decentralized planning efforts that, summed together, would create a common pattern of services across the Nation. Hospitals were organized neither into a competitive profit oriented market, which might have achieved efficiencies through mergers and acquisitions, nor into a governmental system, which might have planned by fiat. Most hospitals were small, locally oriented institutions in the early 1960s; 3 out of 5 general hospitals had fewer than 100 beds. The traditional American "voluntary" or community hospital was a not-for-profit organization.
...
The only reason I can think of for a Rite-Aid convention would be to give the operators a rah-rah on some new horrible store layout that will make the shopping experience worse than it already is.
Oh, I am sooooo glad I don't own any commercial. I got my first inkling of this problem in 2006, when a couple of Realtors almost beat my door down trying to get me to buy a Rite-Aid or two. Someone really wanted to unload, and I guess they figured a small fish like me would make a perfect bagholder.
Why anyone would ever make a long term investment in the common stock of any retailer that sells something that's been around for more than 10 years is beyond me. You're begging to be fleeced. Better odds at 3-card monty.
Sam Zell got out just in time ...
Then bought newspapers ...
oy vey ...
Zell spent very little of his own money buying the newspapers.
Don't forget he also got Wrigley Field and the Chicago Cubs out of the deal! He was well on his way towards fleecing the Illinois taxpayers on a stadium purchase deal until that darn Fitzgerald went and busted Blago.
I dunno about anywhere else, but I drive through massive drug store overcapacity every day in my little hometown.
In the last mile of the trip from my home to my gym, I pass
a) a shiny new Walgreen right across the corner from
b) a shiny new CVS.
c) In the strip mall to the right, there's a SuperDuper Target with its own pharmacy.
d) Across the highway from the Target is a WalMart with a pharmacy.
e) In a small medical office pavilion near my gym, there's a private pharma (the kind that has prescription walkers and canes and surgical hose and such).
f) Down the road is a grocery store with another embedded CVS.
g) Slightly further down is an aging Rite Aid that used to be a money-losing Eckerd.
And, of course, I haven't used any of them in years, my corporate health plan using Medco by mail instead. Where are the margins for these guys?
I liked your story about the guy and the spreadsheet.
I started writing a story based on a post I read here today. I am calling it "The Good Sociopath"
What I have decided to do is cast my fate with the flock. What some, with no idea how insignificant they are themselves, call sheeple. Sheeple are the people. The ones that actually make it work. That show up, punch a clock, smile at assholes, go home and watch American Idol and then go to sleep. No, they are not perfect but they are what they are. They usually never cause harm knowingly, and they can be remarkably generous if they think it is the right thing to do. They are trusting. They trust institutions, their bosses, and most of the time their fellow humans. They are easily led, often to their own slaughter.
How would Rite-Aid react if 60 of their landlords got together and told them the rent was going up 25% or else they'd be changing the locks? There aren't 25% margins in CRE. Rite-Aid knows this. In fact I'd be willing to bet this class of CRE has no operating margins instead landlords justifying the business with pink pony pro formas and skittle poop appreciation.
nova,
Thanks; I saw your story about the 50-ish old guy and his son... I can envision some Frodo-loving office nerd exclaiming "Oh my Goblins!"... heh...
I figured we needed a bit more prose to cheer us up... mostly non-fiction reading here... with pavel's poetry... and some delusional fiction and brow-beating... guess we're missing some of that.
I saw that story in the dead tree edition. I don't understand why you seem to be blaming this problem on the small firms that can no longer afford to pay for health insurance. The idea of tying medical to employment was never a good one, and the main reason it started was to avoid wage and price controls during WWII.
People get trapped in crappy jobs because they can't go without insurance. And they can't get insurance on their own because the insurers price individual policies out of reach of most people. Also, the government helped created this mess by letting companies pay for insurance out of pre-tax dollars while forcing individuals to pay with post-tax dollars, thus skewing the system.
Another pernicious arrangement was the switch from a relatively pure insurance model to the "comprehensive healthcare" model, which completely removed market forces and judgment from the process. Not to mention allowing the tort bar to force the practice of defensive medicine, which drives up utilization.
Blaming the current problems on small business owners is misguided.
Evidently the only industry with 25% margins in TBTF banking, because the only companies adding space in my neighborhood this year and last are JPM Chase and BAC.
For best Onion video ever, search "giant hole" on their site (theonion.com). (I'm too dumb to link) It's about the gov't throwing money down a giant hole.
I like Rite-Aid better than CVS. They seem to have less traffic here than CVS. Also, they must have spent a lot of money building stand alone brick stores heresince that is most of them
OT, but: On ABC right now, (8pm central) tonight, there is a program called 'Un-broke: Money'. Very funny comedians like Cedric the entertainer, Seth Green, Will Smith, talking about credit cards, mortgages etc. It might be worth a video clip of some choice bits.
I'm pretty sure the sale is still in progress. The heir to the TD Ameritrade throne had the winning bid. Not sure about the price, but I do believe that Zell waited too long and missed the maximum potential price.
I grew up a Cubs fan. My dad took me to Wrigley instead of Comiskey - he always bought standing room only because that was about all we could afford. I think that would have gotten us box seats on the south side - haha. I can still hear Harry Caray in my dreams. About 4 or 5 years ago I quit spending money on the Cubs. Not until they win it all. I'll take all the free tickets I can get, but no way do I buy merchandise or tickets. Turns out I still get to go two or three times a year. I got bleacher seats to the Dodgers playoff game at Wrigley last year. Got liquored up and yelled at Manny all night long. I yelled about how the Red Sox didn't miss him and it would only be a matter of time before he screwed over LA. He turned around once or twice so I know he heard me. He shut me up by hitting an incredibly massive HR, but it turns out I was right. Nice.
sm_landlord...why do think Im blaming anyone? Im just saying that this is a rational response, but the fallout from it is more strain on consumer budgets. Sorry if I wasnt clear.
How about if CAD reaches parity we cut out the pigmen and merge currencies. You know, in the name of staying competitive with Europe, which is why the pigmen said we couldn't regulate derivatives.
Today GM announced that it was demanding a 25% reduction in the cost of parts from its suppliers or it would quit building cars. When its primary supplier was contacted regarding this; they replied "We thought GM quit building cars 3 months ago."
I think it's time for us to start up the deflation vs inflation fight again. (oh, I kid...)
Today in the FT it was hilarious. The (oh like HE went to) Harvard professor Niall Ferguson decides to call victory vs Krugman on the future inflation issue, just because of a one day bounce in long treasury yields. Cant even believe they let that go to print. It just cracks me up that we are potentially in the initial stages of a long slog down depression style deflation, and people are talking like, problem over, back to business as usual, lets worry about reinin in that liquidity. Ridiculous.
I honestly had no idea that Baltimore was considered a destination city. I think of it as more of where you go to get cheap flights out of the DC metro area.
I waked into a Rite-Aid, knowing full well that I might get caught in the maze, odd angles coming at me as I searched for sundries on a Sunday, when a bipedal cougar passed by on the prowl for cat food, as she stalked the aisles in search of consenting nourishment...
Chicago Dude: I just saw my first game from a rooftop. $110 total, food and drink (beer/wine/no search of gf's purse for vodka), and it was cheaper than the last time I went to the park. I had ten beers and a handful of chex mix, coulda had 15 brats if i wanted.
Crappy seats at the park are $40 now. WTF. I think if player salaries are cut in half, the world will be better. Thank Tom Hicks and W for giving A-rod $25M/year way back when.
I'm reminded of the farmer and the mule. The farmer wanted to reduce expenses so each week he cut the mule's feed in half. Week after week went by and finally.... just as the farmer weened the mule completely off of food... it fell over and died on him.
Mspeed - thats BWI. Baltimore has the O's and ... well it used to do manufacturing... and well...Eddie Murray was a great 1st baseman and Brooks was great and yeah...it is like Akron or something.
Relax everyone, recession will be over by end of summer:
The “giant error of pessimism” is now rampant. This is why many will be blind to the light at the end of the tunnel that marks the exit from this recession. But to ECRI’s array of objective leading indexes, designed specifically to spot recessions and recoveries, the end of the recession is now in clear sight.
Note: These same leading indexes correctly anticipated the current recession, turning down before the recession began. Specifically, the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) turned down in early June 2007. By December 2007, its growth rate had plunged to its worst reading since the 2001 recession.
Sheeple are the people. The ones that actually make it work. That show up, punch a clock, smile at assholes, go home and watch American Idol and then go to sleep. No, they are not perfect but they are what they are. They usually never cause harm knowingly, and they can be remarkably generous if they think it is the right thing to do. They are trusting. They trust institutions, their bosses, and most of the time their fellow humans. They are easily led, often to their own slaughter.
I think this way lies sanity for any but the sociopath. You can only trust people who can trust. Looking forward to the story.
I started writing a story based on a post I read here today. I am calling it "The Good Sociopath"
I read both parts. GET OUT OF MY HEAD.
But you are concentrating on the low level wolves. To improve things, to bring more HOPE and CHANGE, we must do things that are spectacularly visible. We must show TPTB that gametime is fucking OVER.
Geithner would be better, but I suspect Paulson has less government protection. And Paulson was THE WORST in both politics and business.
Who do you think should be first to die artistically?
How would Rite-Aid react if 60 of their landlords got together and told them the rent was going up 25% or else they'd be changing the locks? There aren't 25% margins in CRE
So? Site value has a production cost of $0.00 to the owner. Ground rents are negotiable, it's not the lessee's problem how much the lessor paid for the permanent privilege to collect rents on the property.
Plus of course in California taxation is limited to Prop-13 rates so if the LL has held the property for 20 years or more his/its margins are waaay over 25%.
That's the beauty of real estate economics. Real Estate is the source, and the sink, of all wealth. As Churchill said a hundred years ago, it is the mother of all monopolies.
In DC last week outside the park, I saw a guy try to get the 5 or 10 buck seats from the machine, but they had sold out first. He couldn't afford 33, and walked away gritting his teeth with his 8-year-old son, who had brought his glove.
Today Rite-Aid wants a 25% discount from landlords, tomorrow they'll want a 25% discount from employees, and the next day a 25% discount from the drug manufacturers, and a day later ask for all the Chinese made stuff to be 25% cheaper cost.
Hoops, as I like to say: First time I got laid off, I was devastated for a month. Second time, I was mildly disturbed for a week. Third time, I managed to have a good chuckle about it on the way to the sporting goods store.
26 was my first time, too. It turned out to be the very best thing that could've happened to me. Instead of rotting there writing process control applications for a polymer manufacturer, I wound up at a tech company that did quite well through the 90s.
If you mean hanging in effigy, fine. Why not a petition calling for his resignation. Is there one poster on this board who thinks Geithner should keep his job?
It's over now, but the show "Unbroke: Money" on ABC from 9-10pm was just like hollywood making "buy war bonds "promos.
Samuel Jackson, Christian Slater, Oscar the grouch all saying buy for the long term is still safe, don't stop paying into your 401k.
I only caught the last 20 minutes or so.
I'm interested in finding out who paid for it. It was in HD even.
Even I am aware that I've been infected by his goddamn observations. Believe you me, I wish I hadn't. The world was such a nicer & fairer place before I "saw the cat".
"UN-BROKE: What You Need to Know about Money is a co-production of Lincoln Square Productions
and Overbrook Entertainment. The executive producers are Mellody Hobson and Rudy Bednar."
It's over now, but the show "Unbroke: Money" on ABC from 9-10pm was just like hollywood making "buy war bonds "promos.
Samuel Jackson, Christian Slater, Oscar the grouch all saying buy for the long term is still safe, don't stop paying into your 401k.
Holy crap, talk about a contrary indicator. RUN FOR THE HILLS - WE'RE DOOMED!
Dang, no BFF...and here I was ready to ameliorate my slight depression at being stuck at home on a Friday night with a little nasty schadenfreude at banker misery.
From the HR676.org website: H.R. 676 simply calls for the expansion and improvement of the current and extremely successful Medicare system
From Senator David Vitter's website: “American taxpayers lose a staggering amount of money to Medicare fraud each year – as much as $70 billion annually by some estimates,” said Sen. Lamar Alexander.
Apparently losing 70 billion a year is considered "extremely successful".
nova, those "guess your internet age" people always get it wrong by 20 years. Just imagine me as 46.
The termination was voluntary. I was a corporate lawyer at a white shoe firm, a firm which has been handling a lot of the very prominent government bailouts. I could see that the structure was broken, the ladder from first year to partner was broken, and would not survive as long as it took me to climb it. The termination was voluntary and "strategic" on my part.
I already had planned for it, I'm going back to school, picking up a masters in agronomy, or perhaps a PHD, hopefully to enter an area of the economy that isn't derived from swapping paper around and everyone making money on the taxpayer's back.
Let's tell the truth about Rite Aid. They are the smallest and least profitable of three major pharmacy/drug chains that all expanded like crazy in the early 2000s. The other two are Walgreens and CVS. Following a model created by Walgreens, they all vastly overbuilt stores and concentrated too many stores in small urban areas that didn't have enough demand to support them. Most of the profitability of these chains comes from selling high-priced prescription drugs, and that game is over. Prescription profit margins are getting killed by Wal-mart, generics, online, Canada and Obama.
Rite-aid entered into a big deal with GNC to put nutrition stores inside their drug stores, and that never made sense or worked out.
At the top of the market, Rite Aid paid $3.4 billion -- about three times their current market cap -- to buy the Eckerd and Brooks chain. Rite Aid now has debt equal to seven times their market cap.
Within 10 years, half of the outlets now operated by Walgreens, CVS and Rite Aid will be gone. The vast majority are free-standing stores with their own parking lots.
America never needed that many brick and mortar drug stores, the majority of which were opened after the Internet came of age.
In DC last week outside the park, I saw a guy try to get the 5 or 10 buck seats from the machine, but they had sold out first. He couldn't afford 33, and walked away gritting his teeth with his 8-year-old son, who had brought his glove.
Man that's terrible. But that's what it would have been like for me and my dad back in the day. I think standing room only tickets were $2.50. We usually parked about 2 miles away where my dad could find free street parking. Perhaps that's why we stayed away from Comiskey. At Wrigley, you knew your car would still be there when you got back.
Baseball is such a great father/son bonding experience. Plenty of time between pitches to talk about strategy, statistics/math, etc.
I can still remember him reaching out and catching a Kirk Gibson HR, giving the ball to me, and then later taking me to get it signed. These are the types of things you remember forever; just you and your dad.
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 7:09 pm
I take it if a Rite-Aid store abandons a lease only the local operator is on the hook, right?
That's right. It would be foolish for any of these deals to have been monetized and REIT'd and levered against 2012 pro forma projections. Because if that happened why regional banks could see loan portfolios decimated and...
Well you get. That's why no one was so stupid. I bet many of the landowners have at most modest mortgages having not ridden the appreciation ladder so this will all turn out fine.
I have unbrainwashed myself since I retired and found the internet ...
It has been quite a shock
Yes.
My first shock was 1995 when I discovered the media doesn't always report the truth.
Second shock was 1998 when I discovered my then employer was a complete fraud.
It went downhill after that.
From the HR676.org website: H.R. 676 simply calls for the expansion and improvement of the current and extremely successful Medicare system
From Senator David Vitter's website: “American taxpayers lose a staggering amount of money to Medicare fraud each year – as much as $70 billion annually by some estimates,” said Sen. Lamar Alexander.
Apparently losing 70 billion a year is considered "extremely successful".
~~~~
LOL ... you believe Republican Bull Shit !
I guess you want mandatory healthcare payments to corrupt health care companies ...
Talking to a classmate I ran into. There is a round of layoff coming in the silicon valley area. Mass layoffs mostly of temporary and contract workers. Also in the bay are lots of municiplities are starting to lay off and close open positions. UE of 15% here we come.
Well I am going to weave sconomic collapse into it. Never saw Dexter before. I got 6 pages done today. Its on the website. I am thinking of tying him into the story line from American Apocalypse.
I've heard similar stuff. No one wanted to believe that the pain was coming to this area. But it's coming.
And as far as CA's fate? Well, the state is just lucky the Big O is in the house and will bail it out, partially, and help it avoid an utter catastrophe.
Well they've been losing to Duane Reade here in NYC, which seems to have gotten their growth hormones under control. They too have debt trouble, nowhere near the scale of Rite-Aid.
Within 10 years, half of the outlets now operated by Walgreens, CVS and Rite Aid will be gone.
Didn't you leave out a decimal point between the 1 and 0? If anything we've learned these events occur in Wiley Coyote time. They defy gravity fall longer than anyone expects and then crash at twice gravity speeds.
I checked No. VA house prices. The middle burbs are getting crushed. It seems to have happened in the last month or so. A lot of people who thought they were immune are at least 300k underwater
I was on the Redskins waiting list for 16 years. They built a new stadium and offered me loge seats. When I turned them down I was dropped from the list.
Major league sports is all about the money they can suck from the fan base. I especially like changing logos and such so they can get you to buy new fan drag
Tim - Im the inverse of your rule. Im looking to buy well above that point (that is, homes at today's prices well above that point) but wouldnt touch a single thing with current pricing. Long way to go on the upper end foreclosures, option arm, etc. No place to go but down for that market's prices. Lots of sellers, few buyers. Many more forced sellers ahead, plus a lot of depressed folks who dumped all they had into housing thinking they, at least, were immune. Funny thing is, theyve had the longest time to figure out that they arent immune, and still, so many of them have no idea and have still not figured it out. I am STILL having conversations nearly weekly with people that dont have a clue about housing. They see the lower end feeding frenzy and then think its the same in the whole market. And of course, they cant grasp at all that even the lower end bottom feeders are still at risk of losing money. Im targeting another 25% drop on top of the 15% that has occurred already in the areas Im looking at. For now, just doing research, and sadly passing up the chance to buy many homes that I like. But after years of doing this, you finally figure out that the home you think is perfect, isnt so unique and there is always something good waiting around the corner, in time. And of course, now, at a much better price.
How much can I earn as a Home Stager?
Full-time Home Stagers earn $24 – 31/hr.
Part-time or casual Home Stagers earn $24/hr.
Freelance Home Stagers work independently.
Dont have your kind of money. Good luck shopping in the high end. The ultra high end (5+ milllion) in the bay area is falling weekly but the 1-3 million has a lot of knife catchers still. I think the high end could fall more than 30% from here. they were grossly overinflated.
Tim - I hate shopping. I can only imagine how much I will hate shopping for a home, given the people that attach themselves to the transaction to suck money from it. Im nowhere near the ultra high end, but still will fall in the category that is all jumbo and option arm loan buyers of the last few years. And frankly, I dont really want to live in the size of a house that one would pay $1 mil for at today's prices, and an even bigger home will be bought for that in the future. Of course, I know that 1200 sqft homes near silicon valley can be that much, but Im talking east bay hills, where $1 mil is now for about 2000+ sq ft. More than enough space for me thanks. I'll be renting in the areas im looking to buy for a couple of years probably. For now, it's just wait, be patient, see how things go. Figure out what you really want. etc.
I'm from Baltimore. Trust me it isn't a destination city.
There are now a few things to see and do, but I'd never go there If my mom
didn't live there, and now that she's got a sale of the house, I'm just going to
do the closing, and will be surprised if I ever set foot there again.
How much can I earn as a Home Stager?
Full-time Home Stagers earn $24 – 31/hr.
Part-time or casual Home Stagers earn $24/hr.
Freelance Home Stagers work independently.
If Walmart can stay in business selling pickles at $3 a gallon, great. If they're trying to corner the pickle market by taking a short term loss, I think they'll find the entry barriers are as effective as that poor security guard who tried to hold off the thundering herd of mad shoppers. And if their workers can't afford Pampers on minimum wage, they'll have a tough time controlling inventory.
On tv, when I was a kid. My family were into baseball, not football. We'd go to
Orioles games, and at one point I lived close enough to the old stadium to walk.
Ordinary people could afford to sit in seats with backs.
The sodas and hot dogs were always expensive (in the less inflated money of the day).
mandatory individual billing with penalties
and fines for not paying, and higher premiums once they catch you ...
~~~
Sounds like the IRS, another subsidiary of the DC folks that just happen to run Medicare.
You really should listen to yourself some times... you're a poster child for cognitive dissonance.
~~~~
Wake Up ... TPTB are going to stick YOU for health insurance to cover everyone when it is their
responsibility ... They are looking out for their donors .... the wealthy and corporations ... Not YOU!
Only a few Dems are pushing for HR 676. The big boys like Baucus and Reid are going to stick YOU!
GDD,the oakland hills can be nice.Be sure to stay away from shepherd canyon and pay attention to where the nearest fire station is,and how likely it is to be closed.For those who do not know the area,think of shepherd canyon as a chimney full of gasoline soaked kindling (eucalyptus duff is 4 feet thick in places).
liz, the market is always there, however we may be unafraid to mark it. if the market is just bottom feeders refusing to pay more than $99 sq/ft, then that is the market. sugarcoating reality is always the most dangerous of vices.
.....all the research and marketing money Wal-Mart has and they get it WRONG. The reason for the popularity of the $3 pickle jar IS THE JAR. People like us can't find a glass gallon jar for $3. empty. We buy the pickles FOR THE EMPTY JAR. What a bunch of idiots.
liz, you are the most interesting internet spectre on here, by a wide margin. your intellectual curiousity and high spirits are a model for all of us younger folk. i sincerely hope you have successfully passed your dna to many grandkids.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 10:08 pm
.....all the research and marketing money Wal-Mart has and they get it WRONG. The reason for the popularity of the $3 pickle jar IS THE JAR. People like us can't find a glass gallon jar for $3. empty. We buy the pickles FOR THE EMPTY JAR. What a bunch of idiots.
But we also bought cleverly-marketed tap water for three bucks, and threw away the bottles that were probably worth more than what was in them.
And more is an understatement.
I must admit that I get some schadenfreude when I see formerly "chic" jeans on sale for 80% off their former prices at Costco.
When the drug stores start shutting down, a lot of consumables manufacturers are going to get the Walmart treatment, as they won't have as many ways to reach the consumer. Many of them have already curtailed brand-building, which leaves them even more vulnerable.
By 1996, was pretty sure the IT boom would blow out like the railroad boom did in the 1890s, and that 30% of those workers would be displaced. I thought the key to surviving was effort and skills but sadly I discovered after the first blowout (2001) is that skills are less important than glad-handing and conformity.
i've pondered it often the past two years. I last worked for a minor Name, former second-tier celebrity, an Alpha male type insistent on 30% growth rates, etc, etc, etc. I learned in the 1980s that sacrificing current customers for the false promise of new customers is a bad path. The Indians haven't learned that yet.
So I finally decided that if what's left is gladhanding sales crap and generating priesthood complexity for job justification, that I'd rather not do it. I'm thinking I'll probably try a government job again, it's a lot less money but I only ever needed that money because of women and ego. My first project with the USDOT paid poorly and my coding sucked but it was the best because I felt like I was accomplishing something.
You just get tired of rorons who are rewarded for stupidity.
Chicao dude: I hate the big business of baseball, but Wrigley Field is my church, my temple, my spiritual place. If the Cubs moved out, I would go there to watch roller derby and tractor pull.
hey Tom, good to see you back. Im not going up into Montclair any further than a block from the village. I figure they'd protect the business district. Plus, with lots of friends in SF, I dont want to be too too far away. BTW< i figured out where Im going to get my license. Now for the boring part of working through the online stuff. Bleh. After this summer's travels I'll start. It will be my reward for propping the euro economy.
.....all the research and marketing money Wal-Mart has and they get it WRONG. The reason for the popularity of the $3 pickle jar IS THE JAR. People like us can't find a glass gallon jar for $3. empty. We buy the pickles FOR THE EMPTY JAR. What a bunch of idiots.
LOL... it scares the poop out of me when I start thinking like BSR...
what a day, I bought some silver this morning. Didn't check the closing, because of volume spike. I'll look at it in the Journal in the morning. This is the most unreal market I have ever traded.
When the drug stores start shutting down, a lot of consumables manufacturers are going to get the Walmart treatment, as they won't have as many ways to reach the consumer. Many of them have already curtailed brand-building, which leaves them even more vulnerable.
That is a huge problem in lawn & garden mfg - only two real outlets: HD & Lowes.
In fact it forced Briggs & Stratton to buy up some of their customers [the machine builders the engines go in] just so they would have as much negotiating muscle as HD & Lowes. Not everyone can do that.
I guess we're still a long ways off from the collapse of land prices.
My dream is to be able to buy a $100k parcel of land + $150k custom manufactured solar/green home with recycled water system (plus astroturf or some type of low-maintenance lawn). I don't know how much it would cost to transform land into house, probably $75K-100K? $350K seems reasonable for something that I'd be happy with and the wife would be happy with. I doubt land prices get that low in SoCal.
The path we've taken has been so foolish... the old farts don't even realize that they won't have anyone to sell their homes too yet... isn't that like a 100 year old lesson?
It's kinda scary that sm_landlord posts a vid, so I post an old Fast Company article and not only does everybody read it but comes to some of the same conclusions.
Dryfly is right, thinking too much like BSR can be cause for concern.
sm_landlord (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 8:18 pm
Food for thought, Chart of the day:
The price of a median U.S. house expressed in terms of gold
For even more food and more thought, pricedingold.com has charts of gold vs. the following:
* CAD, AUD and EUR vs USD
* Copper
* Crude Oil
* Custom Charts
* Dow Jones Industrials
* Nikkei Index
* Platinum
* Silver
* Uranium
* US Disposable Income
* US Dollar
* US GDP
* US Home Prices
* US Postage
* US Retail Gasoline
* US Wages
* Wheat
Chart links are in the right sidebar.
My druthers would be to buy some property in the country and then build a small bungalow with geothermal and solar. That's after the kids are finally out of the house - years away - and we're retired.
Problem is that I seriously doubt that in 15 years I'll be able to find a buyer for the existant house willing/able to pay what we paid.
My druthers would be to buy some property in the country and then build a small bungalow with geothermal and solar. That's after the kids are finally out of the house - years away - and we're retired.
Problem is that I seriously doubt that in 15 years I'll be able to find a buyer for the existant house willing/able to pay what we paid.
Don't sweat it HD - they probably won't move out... or if they do they'll 'cycle' [move out move back move out move back]...
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 10:16 pm
You just get tired of rorons who are rewarded for stupidity.
The problem here is the presumption (common to math/engineering types, and to good but simple people) that money = value based on competence and that the economic system in which we live is (or mostly is) a meritocracy. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The system best rewards those who serve it best, and who have best internalized its values as their own. You can bullshit other people and even yourself in the short-term, but in the end there is a choice to make... I don't mean you need to become a martyr for a cause or a total yes-man/sellout, those are extremes, between which lies a continuum of possibilities. I think they only become obvious much later in life, when far more of it is spent looking backwards at what has been than forward at what could still be... the terminus of which is of course death. Of course I am partially laughing due to the age discrepancy between us but suppose I am still allowed some measure of youthful naivete, so here is an expression thereof.
Oh yes. And creditors are all going to go out of business since the debtors can't service the debt.... it's practically like history has shown us what has happened before... but not really...
My dream is to be able to buy a $100k parcel of land + $150k custom manufactured solar/green home with recycled water system (plus astroturf or some type of low-maintenance lawn).
That may almost be doable at or near those price targets in some places out here in flyover country. Especially if/when the ridiculous rise in the price of agricultural land out here falls back to a sustainable level. Farmers got just as stupid as their McMansion counterparts in the city, if not moreso.
Any person who goes into farming and does stupid things never lasts very long - they usually get cashed out pretty fast... The smart farmers run lean and mean and no debt.... and that is most farmers who are born into it or who survive for any length of time...
GDD9000,don't sweat the RE Sales exam.It is a reading comprehension and very basic math test.If you can read at a jr high level and do math well enough to make accurate change you will pass easily barring a serious hangover.Half fail.The Broker and Appraiser tests do take some study...
"The system best rewards those who serve it best, and who have best internalized its values as their own. You can bullshit other people and even yourself in the short-term, but in the end there is a choice to make... I don't mean you need to become a martyr for a cause or a total yes-man/sellout, those are extremes, between which lies a continuum of possibilities."
~~~~
true words ...
That's why I took a Union job and did my investing on the side ... the union protected me from a~holes and
I got great benies if not a great salary ...
It is only in this way I could do my own thing and still set aside enough to retire early and well ... Could I do it again ?
No ... not in this day and age ... the rug has been yanked out from under the middle class for the most part ... My college
tuition was miniscule compared to now, houses were cheap and food cheaper ...
I rode the 30 year Reaganomics Trickle Down Debt Bomb with real estate and cashed out just in time ...
The plastic and glass containers we discard daily would be treasures of great wonder 200 years ago. "The Gods Must Be Crazy". How can you not like a movie where a Land Rover is named The Anti-Christ and gets caught up in a tree because of yellow flowers on a girl's panties?
I understood the ribbing. I just wanted to make a point.
Those jars are perfect for storing flour, cornmeal, rice, and the like. Damn near anything you don't want mice or bugs getting into. But then, anyone who lives in the country already knows this.
Leftys Liquors Lubricants and Tarp and Bank (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 10:26 pm
* reply
* Ignore user
what a day, I bought some silver this morning. Didn't check the closing, because of volume spike. I'll look at it in the Journal in the morning. This is the most unreal market I have ever traded.
"Why anyone would ever make a long term investment in the common stock of any retailer that sells something that's been around for more than 10 years is beyond me."
CVS and RSH have been OK for me. Got CVS via CMX and RSH for the digital tuners. Both have been around for a LONG time and pay dividends and earn profits. I am quite fine with that.
the classic metric for an ounce gold is a man's suit, BTW - though a week of rent in a nice part of Manhattan might also work.
here's one of the few original thoughts i have to offer on the subject - gold actually isn't that volatile - take a long, long, long (like 15 yr) trailing average and the 10% or so return has actually been pretty steady for the past 40 years.
Night all,have a good weekend.I went to my weekly funeral today,got one lined up for next month,another probable and I will also be Pallbearer at a wedding (I use the term advisedly).getting old beats the alternative most days...
Radioshack is gone from my neighborhood. CVS profits will soon go poof.
"RSH EPS 1.54 "
"CVS EPS 2.27 "
Not before we get to mad max. For USB cables, batteries and that personal item that you want quickly... Convenience has some value. These guys have been around FOREVER, plan long term and have seen hard times before. I am quite comfortable holding them long term.
Thnx, Guyz, - I think. The glass gallon jar is a relic of time past. We use it also for our canned pickles, our milk, the obvious sun teas and spice/herb storage. We prefer glass to plastic. Vlasic is the only product we've found that provides the gallon GLASS jar. The next best is the gallon glass jar (with spout) for iced tea @ 6.95 from Wal-Mart. BTW, fresh milk in plastic is kinda like "bathroom water vs. kitchen sink water - it's just not as good. LOL.
Maybe this is a convention to teach how to navigate the isles of the stores. I have trouble finding my way around, they came up with a maze a few years ago that is probably designed to keep customers in the store for longer. It has the adverse effect on me. If I can't find what I am looking for quickly, good bye instead of buy. Once I see this layout, I back out and head for another drug store. I hope I am not mistaken, but I think I'm talking about Rite Aid.
In addition, I think a lot of these retail locations should just disappear...they situated themselves right across from wherever their competitor was...this was seen all over the country.
The fact that the 'pros' come out in force in the last hour is not news, just as the fact the the first hour of the day has always been amature hour. And the TICK is of some use but, like many other indicators of prior value, it too has become full of statistical noice to the point of becoming only marginally valuable.
i found this interesting site of http://is.gd/HGYt lots of links to finance and economics articles
Total credit market debt as a percentage of GDP has risen from 130% of GDP in 1952 to 350% of GDP today. The various bailout and stimulus schemes enacted in the last year will drive this percentage above 400% in the near future. When a country allows this much debt to accumulate versus its GDP, they have done something seriously wrong. The country’s politicians, business leaders, and citizens have all contributed to this disaster.
The fact that the 'pros' come out in force in the last hour is not news, just as the fact the the first hour of the day has always been amature hour. And the TICK is of some use but, like many other indicators of prior value, it too has become full of statistical noice to the point of becoming only marginally valuable.
i found this interesting site of is.gd/HGYt lots of links to finance and economics articles
Total credit market debt as a percentage of GDP has risen from 130% of GDP in 1952 to 350% of GDP today. The various bailout and stimulus schemes enacted in the last year will drive this percentage above 400% in the near future. When a country allows this much debt to accumulate versus its GDP, they have done something seriously wrong. The country’s politicians, business leaders, and citizens have all contributed to this disaster.
i found this interesting site of is.gd/HGYt lots of links to finance and economics articles
first
Can't talk about this topic.
Off to play Bahamut Lagoon, night all.
never waste a crisis...
Sam Zell got out just in time ...
Then bought newspapers ...
oy vey ...
I saw a flash of pink and thought "HURRAY - BFF never lets us down!!!"
But no such luck.
dryfly, yeah - sorry to let you down. It really isn't Friday without a bank failure.
best to all.
I would expect a lot of carryback loans for
business and real estate to be going the same way ...
Reduce the loan or you can have your property\ business back ...
THis is excellent news and it's how free markets are supposed to work when meddling intervention doesn't get involved to prop up asset prices above natural values. Not permitting CRE debt to fail dooms the tenant businesses and then the landowner fails in the long run anyhow. Just drags it out...
"t's how free markets are supposed to work"
Really?
How can you say that's how they're "supposed to work" if they never do work that way?
I wonder why the free markets didn't work right in 1873?
The E-ville government intervention?
f*ck it...
crisis over, get out of the way of the recovery story because its all golden shoots of bubbles...
from naked capitalism ...
"Going back to today's ridiculous close, the chart below shows it all: the complete tape painting volume spike at the very end of the day speaks for itself. And as computers now simply issue forced stock recall orders to each other, painting the tape wet with manipulative intent and volume spikes into the last 20 minutes of trading every day, their human creators are left on the sidelines, trying to outshout each other as to the reason for why the market keeps rising while the economy keeps tumbling."
Rite Aid Corp. has canceled its annual convention in Baltimore ... one of Baltimore’s biggest conventions in recent years, bringing 6,000 people to town and pumping $6 million from direct spending into the city in 2008 ... The company had originally booked 14,500 hotel room nights for its nine-day expo in mid-August ...
I only have one question? Why would a company have an annual convention like this? I mean what is the point?
If it is for their stockholders - let THEM buy their own rooms....
If it is so suppliers can show off new products - let them pay for it ALL [or risk having their competitors show instead]...
I can't imagine it is to show 'customers' their new product offerings... I mean who is gonna go to a 'show' like that? Helen - grab the kids & pack the car we're going to B'More to see what new cool stuff our Rite Aid is gonna have.
Anyone understand why this 'convention' ever was in the first place? TIA
Just looked it up in the new economy websters!
convention = junket.
Damn; got porked! I'm not going to re-post my findings on health care in the 1960s... but I'll post some more excerpts from interesting article (that apparently Google Books came up with?
Surgery was a major focus of hospitals in the 1960s, accounting for more than one-third of all short-stay hospital admissions, yet less than one-half of all surgery was performed by board-certified specialists (Andersen and Anderson, 1967). "Is this operation necessary?" asked The New Republic (Lembke, 1963). "Should doctors tell the truth to cancer patients?" asked the Ladies Home Journal (1961). "What is the patient really trying to say?" asked Time (1964) magazine, on the need to improve doctor-patient communication.
...
There were two possible models for reorganization of health care in the 1960s into a system that might more nearly meet the needs of changing morbidity on the one hand and the efficient deployment of expensive technology on the other. Unfortunately, neither was generally available. The first model would have been to develop self-contained service systems, that is, encourage the development of what we now call health maintenance organizations (HMOs) or managed care systems. However, even in the late 1960s, only 2 percent of the entire population were covered through prepaid group practice (renamed HMOs in 1970) (Stevens, 1971).
...
The second possible vehicle for reorganization was communitywide planning, regulation, and priority-setting by government or quasi-government agencies. However, here the idiosyncratic structure of the U.S. hospital system militated against decentralized planning efforts that, summed together, would create a common pattern of services across the Nation. Hospitals were organized neither into a competitive profit oriented market, which might have achieved efficiencies through mergers and acquisitions, nor into a governmental system, which might have planned by fiat. Most hospitals were small, locally oriented institutions in the early 1960s; 3 out of 5 general hospitals had fewer than 100 beds. The traditional American "voluntary" or community hospital was a not-for-profit organization.
...
G'damn this is so interesting to read about.
The only reason I can think of for a Rite-Aid convention would be to give the operators a rah-rah on some new horrible store layout that will make the shopping experience worse than it already is.
Oh, I am sooooo glad I don't own any commercial. I got my first inkling of this problem in 2006, when a couple of Realtors almost beat my door down trying to get me to buy a Rite-Aid or two. Someone really wanted to unload, and I guess they figured a small fish like me would make a perfect bagholder.
Why anyone would ever make a long term investment in the common stock of any retailer that sells something that's been around for more than 10 years is beyond me. You're begging to be fleeced. Better odds at 3-card monty.
Sam Zell got out just in time ...
Then bought newspapers ...
oy vey ...
Zell spent very little of his own money buying the newspapers.
Don't forget he also got Wrigley Field and the Chicago Cubs out of the deal! He was well on his way towards fleecing the Illinois taxpayers on a stadium purchase deal until that darn Fitzgerald went and busted Blago.
dryfly - I suspect they use it as an incentive / reward junket for employees.
But then it would make sense to have it someplace more.....exotic.
although having said that I visited the inner harbor for the first time a few weeks ago and it was very nice
I dunno about anywhere else, but I drive through massive drug store overcapacity every day in my little hometown.
In the last mile of the trip from my home to my gym, I pass
a) a shiny new Walgreen right across the corner from
b) a shiny new CVS.
c) In the strip mall to the right, there's a SuperDuper Target with its own pharmacy.
d) Across the highway from the Target is a WalMart with a pharmacy.
e) In a small medical office pavilion near my gym, there's a private pharma (the kind that has prescription walkers and canes and surgical hose and such).
f) Down the road is a grocery store with another embedded CVS.
g) Slightly further down is an aging Rite Aid that used to be a money-losing Eckerd.
And, of course, I haven't used any of them in years, my corporate health plan using Medco by mail instead. Where are the margins for these guys?
Chicago Dude
Zell blew the deal on the Cubs and Rigley ...
Kept jacking potential buyers around ...
No deal now ... worth way less ...
Maybe no BFF because it's also Fiat Buying Spree Friday?
"Anyone understand why this 'convention' ever was in the first place? TIA"
Just a guess: to sucker more investors/franchisees.
This is an inflationary green shoot, no?
CRE is headed for a better than 50% fall ...
How many churches can you open in a strip mall ?
Talking to my own pharmacist business is way down
for prescriptions and gen merchandize ...
here is an article from a few years back about the "Rite Aid Health and Beauty Expo" in b-more:
Baltimore expo furthers Rite Aid health care image | Drug Store News | Find Articles at BNET
Yet another way firms will try to save money and keep beating down the economy while they go at their less than zero sum game.
"More Small Firms Drop Health Care "
Amid Slump, Small Businesses Consider Cutting Medical Coverage - WSJ.com
Green shoots, he scores! It's a recovery!
That negotiation job ought to be a lot easier for Starbucks. Toward the end, they were opening new Starbucks in the existing Starbucks' bathroom.
No BFF? Guess they all passed the not TBTF stress test. Or whatever version's running today.
C
Choice is Party or pay taxes and the stock holders. I am sure part of it is a reward to folks they make good deals with.
YLSP,
I liked your story about the guy and the spreadsheet.
I started writing a story based on a post I read here today. I am calling it "The Good Sociopath"
What I have decided to do is cast my fate with the flock. What some, with no idea how insignificant they are themselves, call sheeple. Sheeple are the people. The ones that actually make it work. That show up, punch a clock, smile at assholes, go home and watch American Idol and then go to sleep. No, they are not perfect but they are what they are. They usually never cause harm knowingly, and they can be remarkably generous if they think it is the right thing to do. They are trusting. They trust institutions, their bosses, and most of the time their fellow humans. They are easily led, often to their own slaughter.
afterthecrash.net
Toward the end, they were opening new Starbucks in the existing Starbucks bathroom.
====================
as usual, The Onion is on the case:
New Starbucks Opens In Rest Room Of Existing Starbucks
NOTE THAT THIS ARTICLE IS FROM 1998!!!
So we have been ridiculing starbuck's expansion rate for over a decade
How will Walmart ever be able to pay a dividend? Volume ain't gonna do it.
re: The Onion. Oh man, that might be my new favorite for prescience, just ahead of: Bush: 'Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over' | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
I liked the Onion story about Barricks bus getting pulled over in GA for a busted taillight when he was one of the possible choices.
How would Rite-Aid react if 60 of their landlords got together and told them the rent was going up 25% or else they'd be changing the locks? There aren't 25% margins in CRE. Rite-Aid knows this. In fact I'd be willing to bet this class of CRE has no operating margins instead landlords justifying the business with pink pony pro formas and skittle poop appreciation.
nova,
Thanks; I saw your story about the 50-ish old guy and his son... I can envision some Frodo-loving office nerd exclaiming "Oh my Goblins!"... heh...
I figured we needed a bit more prose to cheer us up... mostly non-fiction reading here... with pavel's poetry... and some delusional fiction and brow-beating... guess we're missing some of that.
Home Depot and Wal Mart were playing the same game as Starbucks ...
Overbuild to kill the smallfry and keep larger competition out ...
Wal Mart does it with size, Depot with multiple locations ...
There aren't 25% margins in CRE. Rite-Aid knows this
maybe it's a political cover to close some unprofitable locations?
GDD9000,
I saw that story in the dead tree edition. I don't understand why you seem to be blaming this problem on the small firms that can no longer afford to pay for health insurance. The idea of tying medical to employment was never a good one, and the main reason it started was to avoid wage and price controls during WWII.
People get trapped in crappy jobs because they can't go without insurance. And they can't get insurance on their own because the insurers price individual policies out of reach of most people. Also, the government helped created this mess by letting companies pay for insurance out of pre-tax dollars while forcing individuals to pay with post-tax dollars, thus skewing the system.
Another pernicious arrangement was the switch from a relatively pure insurance model to the "comprehensive healthcare" model, which completely removed market forces and judgment from the process. Not to mention allowing the tort bar to force the practice of defensive medicine, which drives up utilization.
Blaming the current problems on small business owners is misguided.
YLSP,
I am not smart enough to do the fancy economic stuff so it is how I contribute. I recycle it into stories.
Re Onion - close run thing - maybe Chad Doogan's debt relief application to his room-mates, but this is still waaayyy close to the bone:
Recession-Plagued Nation Demands New Bubble To Invest In | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
C
Evidently the only industry with 25% margins in TBTF banking, because the only companies adding space in my neighborhood this year and last are JPM Chase and BAC.
isn't lack of affordable health ins an impediment to new small businesses formation - which conservatives claim to be in favor of?
For best Onion video ever, search "giant hole" on their site (theonion.com). (I'm too dumb to link) It's about the gov't throwing money down a giant hole.
Tired of hearing the grim truth about their economic future, Americans demanded that the bald-faced lies resume immediately
Nation Ready To Be Lied To About Economy Again | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
Was the problem witches?:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Rob Dawg
Lot of people got into "partnerships' to preserve capital ( avoid taxes ) when they sold their
individually owned property ... I was offered several deals on CRE partnerships ... I declined ...
Everywhere I look now ... CRE ... and my accountant ( whom I fired ), tried to sell me, crying in his beer ...
Ashes everywhere ... ashes ...
How can any retailer make a monopoly profit dime with all the extra space available? Even my mother finally learned how to use the internet.
I like Rite-Aid better than CVS. They seem to have less traffic here than CVS. Also, they must have spent a lot of money building stand alone brick stores heresince that is most of them
We must be getting into doom overload when all we can do is rehash comedy that is too close to reality...
isn't lack of affordable health ins an impediment to new small businesses formation
~~~~
Bottom line ... Conservatives want their cake and to eat it too ...
That's why they came up with Reaganomics ... debt upon more debt ...
OT, but: On ABC right now, (8pm central) tonight, there is a program called 'Un-broke: Money'. Very funny comedians like Cedric the entertainer, Seth Green, Will Smith, talking about credit cards, mortgages etc. It might be worth a video clip of some choice bits.
Or perhaps it is because Armegeddon still has not arrived...
Oh yeah. Our father, who arb in heaven, hallowed be my gains...
CURRENCY VALUE CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
USD-JPY 95.3400 -1.5150 -1.5642% 16:59
USD-HKD 7.7522 -0.0011 -0.0142% 16:59
AUD-USD 0.8010 0.0170 2.1747% 16:59
NZD-USD 0.6405 0.0172 2.7637% 16:59
C
"Wal Mart does it with size, Depot with multiple locations ..."
So now they own everything and...
nobody wants to buy anything.
Yeah!
We won!
We're winners!
Depressions are a Tragedy Of The Commons.
"Blaming the current problems on small business owners is misguided."
~~~~
Yep ...
The only answer is single payer HR 676 ...
Until we get there we are screwed ...
And I mean "we" , business, government and the people ...
Zell blew the deal on the Cubs and Rigley
I'm pretty sure the sale is still in progress. The heir to the TD Ameritrade throne had the winning bid. Not sure about the price, but I do believe that Zell waited too long and missed the maximum potential price.
I grew up a Cubs fan. My dad took me to Wrigley instead of Comiskey - he always bought standing room only because that was about all we could afford. I think that would have gotten us box seats on the south side - haha. I can still hear Harry Caray in my dreams. About 4 or 5 years ago I quit spending money on the Cubs. Not until they win it all. I'll take all the free tickets I can get, but no way do I buy merchandise or tickets. Turns out I still get to go two or three times a year. I got bleacher seats to the Dodgers playoff game at Wrigley last year. Got liquored up and yelled at Manny all night long. I yelled about how the Red Sox didn't miss him and it would only be a matter of time before he screwed over LA. He turned around once or twice so I know he heard me. He shut me up by hitting an incredibly massive HR, but it turns out I was right. Nice.
sm_landlord...why do think Im blaming anyone? Im just saying that this is a rational response, but the fallout from it is more strain on consumer budgets. Sorry if I wasnt clear.
broward
"Wal Mart does it with size, Depot with multiple locations ..."
So now they own everything and...
nobody wants to buy anything.
Yeah!
We won!
We're winners!
Depressions are a Tragedy Of The Commons.
~~~~~
We embraced the FIRE economy and now we have the results ...
...... ashes
How about if CAD reaches parity we cut out the pigmen and merge currencies. You know, in the name of staying competitive with Europe, which is why the pigmen said we couldn't regulate derivatives.
"We want the same deal that Rite Aid gets "- Walgreens & CVS consortium
The race to the bottom continues...
"We want the same deal that Rite Aid gets "
That's inflationary right?
Nah, CAD doesn't want that debt overhang
GDD9000;
I misinterpreted what you wrote then. I thought you were referring to the businesses beating down the economy.
Apologies.
Today GM announced that it was demanding a 25% reduction in the cost of parts from its suppliers or it would quit building cars. When its primary supplier was contacted regarding this; they replied "We thought GM quit building cars 3 months ago."
OK how about 1.05/USD? Currently 109.
"The race to the bottom continues..."
What's your evidence that a bottom exists?
I think it's time for us to start up the deflation vs inflation fight again. (oh, I kid...)
Today in the FT it was hilarious. The (oh like HE went to) Harvard professor Niall Ferguson decides to call victory vs Krugman on the future inflation issue, just because of a one day bounce in long treasury yields. Cant even believe they let that go to print. It just cracks me up that we are potentially in the initial stages of a long slog down depression style deflation, and people are talking like, problem over, back to business as usual, lets worry about reinin in that liquidity. Ridiculous.
FT.com / Comment / Opinion - History lesson for economists in thrall to Keynes
So of course, Krugman has to try to take a swipe back the same day in his column.
All this is WAY too early IMHO. Im looking into a deep pit, and I dont see nuttin but dark.
I honestly had no idea that Baltimore was considered a destination city. I think of it as more of where you go to get cheap flights out of the DC metro area.
I waked into a Rite-Aid, knowing full well that I might get caught in the maze, odd angles coming at me as I searched for sundries on a Sunday, when a bipedal cougar passed by on the prowl for cat food, as she stalked the aisles in search of consenting nourishment...
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 6:35 pm
"The race to the bottom continues..."
What's your evidence that a bottom exists?
You think we've fallen into a Klien Bottle or something?
Lassie always manages to get Timmay out of the well by the end of every episode.
Chicago Dude: I just saw my first game from a rooftop. $110 total, food and drink (beer/wine/no search of gf's purse for vodka), and it was cheaper than the last time I went to the park. I had ten beers and a handful of chex mix, coulda had 15 brats if i wanted.
Crappy seats at the park are $40 now. WTF. I think if player salaries are cut in half, the world will be better. Thank Tom Hicks and W for giving A-rod $25M/year way back when.
I'm reminded of the farmer and the mule. The farmer wanted to reduce expenses so each week he cut the mule's feed in half. Week after week went by and finally.... just as the farmer weened the mule completely off of food... it fell over and died on him.
No need, "hyperdevaluation" covers it, as a poster has often put it lately.
Mspeed - thats BWI. Baltimore has the O's and ... well it used to do manufacturing... and well...Eddie Murray was a great 1st baseman and Brooks was great and yeah...it is like Akron or something.
Relax everyone, recession will be over by end of summer:
The “giant error of pessimism” is now rampant. This is why many will be blind to the light at the end of the tunnel that marks the exit from this recession. But to ECRI’s array of objective leading indexes, designed specifically to spot recessions and recoveries, the end of the recession is now in clear sight.
Note: These same leading indexes correctly anticipated the current recession, turning down before the recession began. Specifically, the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) turned down in early June 2007. By December 2007, its growth rate had plunged to its worst reading since the 2001 recession.
Read the good news at U.S. Construction Prospect [sic] Brighten
, anyone here ever heard of this Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)?
nova (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 7:59 pm
Sheeple are the people. The ones that actually make it work. That show up, punch a clock, smile at assholes, go home and watch American Idol and then go to sleep. No, they are not perfect but they are what they are. They usually never cause harm knowingly, and they can be remarkably generous if they think it is the right thing to do. They are trusting. They trust institutions, their bosses, and most of the time their fellow humans. They are easily led, often to their own slaughter.
I think this way lies sanity for any but the sociopath. You can only trust people who can trust. Looking forward to the story.
"Lassie always manages to get Timmay out of the well by the end of every episode."
Isn't that pretty much what keeps happening?
I started writing a story based on a post I read here today. I am calling it "The Good Sociopath"
I read both parts. GET OUT OF MY HEAD.
But you are concentrating on the low level wolves. To improve things, to bring more HOPE and CHANGE, we must do things that are spectacularly visible. We must show TPTB that gametime is fucking OVER.
Geithner would be better, but I suspect Paulson has less government protection. And Paulson was THE WORST in both politics and business.
Who do you think should be first to die artistically?
mmckinl,
Remind me what party stopped raising the national debt limit?
Perhaps the American electorate wants our cake... and we will eat it... like Monty Python Meaning of Life....
Who do you think should be first to die artistically?
I don't think there's any question in my mind: Lloyd Blankfein.
Perhaps a nearby second might be Ken Lewis.
"Relax everyone, recession will be over by end of summer:"
~~~~
Good, then we can start paying down the $50 trilllion in debt ...
on second thought ...
I'd rather have the depression and write it off ...
How would Rite-Aid react if 60 of their landlords got together and told them the rent was going up 25% or else they'd be changing the locks? There aren't 25% margins in CRE
So? Site value has a production cost of $0.00 to the owner. Ground rents are negotiable, it's not the lessee's problem how much the lessor paid for the permanent privilege to collect rents on the property.
Plus of course in California taxation is limited to Prop-13 rates so if the LL has held the property for 20 years or more his/its margins are waaay over 25%.
That's the beauty of real estate economics. Real Estate is the source, and the sink, of all wealth. As Churchill said a hundred years ago, it is the mother of all monopolies.
As of today, me hearties, I am now officially unemployed! At 26 years old!
In DC last week outside the park, I saw a guy try to get the 5 or 10 buck seats from the machine, but they had sold out first. He couldn't afford 33, and walked away gritting his teeth with his 8-year-old son, who had brought his glove.
Sorry SI, peak doom was a couple of months ago.
"Remind me what party stopped raising the national debt limit?"
~~~~
Republicans ... all hyperbole ...
their answer to everything ~ tax cuts ...
Democrats ... not much better ...
but a little more lucid ...
Hoopajoops,
Sorry to hear the news. I think you will land on your feet. Best wishes.
Comrade Troyski (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 6:46 pm
Site value has a production cost of $0.00 to the owner.
George, George, George... will you never learn?
Condolences Hoops, at least your still young enough to enjoy a bit of time off.
Today Rite-Aid wants a 25% discount from landlords, tomorrow they'll want a 25% discount from employees, and the next day a 25% discount from the drug manufacturers, and a day later ask for all the Chinese made stuff to be 25% cheaper cost.
And they'll still find a way to lose money...
Hoops, as I like to say: First time I got laid off, I was devastated for a month. Second time, I was mildly disturbed for a week. Third time, I managed to have a good chuckle about it on the way to the sporting goods store.
26 was my first time, too. It turned out to be the very best thing that could've happened to me. Instead of rotting there writing process control applications for a polymer manufacturer, I wound up at a tech company that did quite well through the 90s.
Hoopajoops, if you don't mind my asking what industry do you work in?
1 currency now -yogi
I don't even watch sports anymore ... it's too pathetic
brand new stadiums ....
Graffiti covered broken bathroom schools blocks away ...
Money for the monied, little to nothing for the people ...
I am now officially unemployed! At 26 years old!
Really sorry to hear that. Be sure to walk away from some debt - it's the new patriotism!
Plus, it's summer. Have some beer, smoke a doob, get laid...
Way to go Hoops. You feel like a weight has fallen off your soul?
"I am now officially unemployed! At 26 years old!"
Damn, Hoop, it took me to age fifty to do that.
Baby, you're a Star!
If you mean hanging in effigy, fine. Why not a petition calling for his resignation. Is there one poster on this board who thinks Geithner should keep his job?
If work is so good for us, how come they have to pay us to do it?
Good luck Hoops ...
Never been unemployed ...
but been on strike for a couple of months
several times ... every time for health care ...
sucks ...
Yeah, we walked around and didn't go in.
But the NBA is getting good right now.
"Is there one poster on this board who thinks Geithner should keep his job? "
ME! He should still be a government employee when I flay him and dip him in brine.
Great health care plan! Pay for it yourself!
Hoops let's bring a challenge to the PPIP, if they have the nerve to run it. I forget how to get standing, but there must be a way.
It's over now, but the show "Unbroke: Money" on ABC from 9-10pm was just like hollywood making "buy war bonds "promos.
Samuel Jackson, Christian Slater, Oscar the grouch all saying buy for the long term is still safe, don't stop paying into your 401k.
I only caught the last 20 minutes or so.
I'm interested in finding out who paid for it. It was in HD even.
George, George, George... will you never learn?
Even I am aware that I've been infected by his goddamn observations. Believe you me, I wish I hadn't. The world was such a nicer & fairer place before I "saw the cat".
"UN-BROKE: What You Need to Know about Money is a co-production of Lincoln Square Productions
and Overbrook Entertainment. The executive producers are Mellody Hobson and Rudy Bednar."
ABC.com
It's over now, but the show "Unbroke: Money" on ABC from 9-10pm was just like hollywood making "buy war bonds "promos.
Samuel Jackson, Christian Slater, Oscar the grouch all saying buy for the long term is still safe, don't stop paying into your 401k.
Holy crap, talk about a contrary indicator. RUN FOR THE HILLS - WE'RE DOOMED!
Dang, no BFF...and here I was ready to ameliorate my slight depression at being stuck at home on a Friday night with a little nasty schadenfreude at banker misery.
The Onion is the best evah.
From the HR676.org website: H.R. 676 simply calls for the expansion and improvement of the current and extremely successful Medicare system
From Senator David Vitter's website: “American taxpayers lose a staggering amount of money to Medicare fraud each year – as much as $70 billion annually by some estimates,” said Sen. Lamar Alexander.
Apparently losing 70 billion a year is considered "extremely successful".
Hoops;
"As of today, me hearties, I am now officially unemployed! At 26 years old! "
Congratulations, I think. I seem to recall that you were looking for a way out.
Have you considered getting into business on your own?
"Holy crap, talk about a contrary indicator"
No kidding.
My first thought was "Wow, people must be yanking their deposits even faster now"
I take it if a Rite-Aid store abandons a lease only the local operator is on the hook, right?
Damn Hoops. I thought you were older. I got houseplants as old as you are.
"Samuel Jackson, Christian Slater, Oscar the grouch all saying buy for the long term is still safe, don't stop paying into your 401k."
~~~~
They need more bag holders ...
indoctrinating children has been useful for years now ...
Every generation since the war is now fully brainwashed ...
I have unbrainwashed myself since I retired and found the internet ...
It has been quite a shock ...
nova, those "guess your internet age" people always get it wrong by 20 years. Just imagine me as 46.
The termination was voluntary. I was a corporate lawyer at a white shoe firm, a firm which has been handling a lot of the very prominent government bailouts. I could see that the structure was broken, the ladder from first year to partner was broken, and would not survive as long as it took me to climb it. The termination was voluntary and "strategic" on my part.
I already had planned for it, I'm going back to school, picking up a masters in agronomy, or perhaps a PHD, hopefully to enter an area of the economy that isn't derived from swapping paper around and everyone making money on the taxpayer's back.
Let's tell the truth about Rite Aid. They are the smallest and least profitable of three major pharmacy/drug chains that all expanded like crazy in the early 2000s. The other two are Walgreens and CVS. Following a model created by Walgreens, they all vastly overbuilt stores and concentrated too many stores in small urban areas that didn't have enough demand to support them. Most of the profitability of these chains comes from selling high-priced prescription drugs, and that game is over. Prescription profit margins are getting killed by Wal-mart, generics, online, Canada and Obama.
Rite-aid entered into a big deal with GNC to put nutrition stores inside their drug stores, and that never made sense or worked out.
At the top of the market, Rite Aid paid $3.4 billion -- about three times their current market cap -- to buy the Eckerd and Brooks chain. Rite Aid now has debt equal to seven times their market cap.
Within 10 years, half of the outlets now operated by Walgreens, CVS and Rite Aid will be gone. The vast majority are free-standing stores with their own parking lots.
America never needed that many brick and mortar drug stores, the majority of which were opened after the Internet came of age.
Lots of vacant CRE and broken leases...
In DC last week outside the park, I saw a guy try to get the 5 or 10 buck seats from the machine, but they had sold out first. He couldn't afford 33, and walked away gritting his teeth with his 8-year-old son, who had brought his glove.
Man that's terrible. But that's what it would have been like for me and my dad back in the day. I think standing room only tickets were $2.50. We usually parked about 2 miles away where my dad could find free street parking. Perhaps that's why we stayed away from Comiskey. At Wrigley, you knew your car would still be there when you got back.
Baseball is such a great father/son bonding experience. Plenty of time between pitches to talk about strategy, statistics/math, etc.
I can still remember him reaching out and catching a Kirk Gibson HR, giving the ball to me, and then later taking me to get it signed. These are the types of things you remember forever; just you and your dad.
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 7:09 pm
I take it if a Rite-Aid store abandons a lease only the local operator is on the hook, right?
That's right. It would be foolish for any of these deals to have been monetized and REIT'd and levered against 2012 pro forma projections. Because if that happened why regional banks could see loan portfolios decimated and...
Well you get. That's why no one was so stupid. I bet many of the landowners have at most modest mortgages having not ridden the appreciation ladder so this will all turn out fine.
I have unbrainwashed myself since I retired and found the internet ...
It has been quite a shock
Yes.
My first shock was 1995 when I discovered the media doesn't always report the truth.
Second shock was 1998 when I discovered my then employer was a complete fraud.
It went downhill after that.
TJ and The Bear
From the HR676.org website: H.R. 676 simply calls for the expansion and improvement of the current and extremely successful Medicare system
From Senator David Vitter's website: “American taxpayers lose a staggering amount of money to Medicare fraud each year – as much as $70 billion annually by some estimates,” said Sen. Lamar Alexander.
Apparently losing 70 billion a year is considered "extremely successful".
~~~~
LOL ... you believe Republican Bull Shit !
I guess you want mandatory healthcare payments to corrupt health care companies ...
How that gonna work for you ?
Yeah, Borders will probably be dead in a year after it helped kill so many Mom an Mom type bookstores
Hoops, I was going to offer condolences, but it sounds like congratulations are in order.
Nova - I think it might make an interesting Dexter storyline but I think he sticks to people who murder.
Talking to a classmate I ran into. There is a round of layoff coming in the silicon valley area. Mass layoffs mostly of temporary and contract workers. Also in the bay are lots of municiplities are starting to lay off and close open positions. UE of 15% here we come.
Comrade Scott,
Well I am going to weave sconomic collapse into it. Never saw Dexter before. I got 6 pages done today. Its on the website. I am thinking of tying him into the story line from American Apocalypse.
There are those who call me......Tim.
I've heard similar stuff. No one wanted to believe that the pain was coming to this area. But it's coming.
And as far as CA's fate? Well, the state is just lucky the Big O is in the house and will bail it out, partially, and help it avoid an utter catastrophe.
Well they've been losing to Duane Reade here in NYC, which seems to have gotten their growth hormones under control. They too have debt trouble, nowhere near the scale of Rite-Aid.
Within 10 years, half of the outlets now operated by Walgreens, CVS and Rite Aid will be gone.
Didn't you leave out a decimal point between the 1 and 0? If anything we've learned these events occur in Wiley Coyote time. They defy gravity fall longer than anyone expects and then crash at twice gravity speeds.
I checked No. VA house prices. The middle burbs are getting crushed. It seems to have happened in the last month or so. A lot of people who thought they were immune are at least 300k underwater
GD
If I owned a house worth over 500k in the Bay Area that sucker would be on the market tomorrow.
Chicago Dude
Baseball has become a big sham ... tax payers paying steroid doping millionaires
playing for tax cheating billionaires to overpay for seats and food.
Look at the Yankees ... built a stadium with fewer seats ... people who had season tickets
for decades out of luck as prices tripled or more ... all on the tax payer dime ...
There is a round of layoff coming in the silicon valley area.
When I started my job in Silicon Valley earlier last year, it took me 45 minutes to get to work on 101 southbound from San Mateo to Palo Alto.
Now it takes me 15. There's very few people on the roads in the morning, comparatively.
There have been tons of layoffs around, but I think they're in little dinky tech shops that don't show up in the news.
I was on the Redskins waiting list for 16 years. They built a new stadium and offered me loge seats. When I turned them down I was dropped from the list.
Major league sports is all about the money they can suck from the fan base. I especially like changing logos and such so they can get you to buy new fan drag
The Vendor-Client relationship:
YouTube - The Vendor Client relationship - in real world situations
These are in medium publicallly traded companies as i understand
What are good, not great seats behind home plate now for the Yankees ?
$2500 a game ?
Fuck'em
LOL ... you believe Republican Bull Shit !
HR676 is Democratic BS, so I'm just providing equal BS time to both sides. You're the one drinking partisan Koolaid.
sm_landlord,
Thanks for that. Here's how Walmart does all that and more.
Tim - Im the inverse of your rule. Im looking to buy well above that point (that is, homes at today's prices well above that point) but wouldnt touch a single thing with current pricing. Long way to go on the upper end foreclosures, option arm, etc. No place to go but down for that market's prices. Lots of sellers, few buyers. Many more forced sellers ahead, plus a lot of depressed folks who dumped all they had into housing thinking they, at least, were immune. Funny thing is, theyve had the longest time to figure out that they arent immune, and still, so many of them have no idea and have still not figured it out. I am STILL having conversations nearly weekly with people that dont have a clue about housing. They see the lower end feeding frenzy and then think its the same in the whole market. And of course, they cant grasp at all that even the lower end bottom feeders are still at risk of losing money. Im targeting another 25% drop on top of the 15% that has occurred already in the areas Im looking at. For now, just doing research, and sadly passing up the chance to buy many homes that I like. But after years of doing this, you finally figure out that the home you think is perfect, isnt so unique and there is always something good waiting around the corner, in time. And of course, now, at a much better price.
I used to go to see the Yankees Carolina League team play. (Single A) They are just begining to sprout as total assholes then....
TJ and The Bear
HR676 is the only way to go ...
Unless you want to get stuck with mandatory health care billing ...
And it is coming if we don't get HR676.
They want everyone in America to be a debt serf ... loading the middle class down with
mandatory health care payments is their idea of fair instead of taxing the wealthy and corps
like every other G7 country does ...
Those that get health care through work will be taxed for the benefit, now it is not taxed ...
The wealthy will do anything to avoid their responsibility to the Common Good so they can
pile up their money ...
.......what's the next step, Hoops? Still the "chem-agri" thingee?
Hoopajoops, good luck to you.
Conjure and I hope you find that for which you're looking.
This should be emailed to all GM employees....
How much can I earn as a Home Stager?
Full-time Home Stagers earn $24 – 31/hr.
Part-time or casual Home Stagers earn $24/hr.
Freelance Home Stagers work independently.
As of today, me hearties, I am now officially unemployed! At 26 years old!
Better than being unemployed at 56 - one of my buddies discovered that today.
Better than being unemployed at 56 - one of my buddies discovered that today.
Jeebus, thats a body blow. Tough to reinvent...Man, it would be a daily battle not to believe that the best was now behind you....
Dude, 46, it's a tough battle not to believe the best is behind you.
"Tough to reinvent..."
Sure it's tough. It's always tough, isn't it?
it would be a daily battle not to believe that the best was now behind you...."
It's only a battle if you don't accept it.
So pizza is a bust.
Oh well!
"As of today, me hearties, I am now officially unemployed! At 26 years old!"
Get used to it. You may change jobs four or five times. Think of it as as an upgrade on your professional development.
Than said...woohoo..up 17 on the month.
Who else decided to go long corp. paper this week w/ the expectation of stale earnings and GDP deflation?
GD
Dont have your kind of money. Good luck shopping in the high end. The ultra high end (5+ milllion) in the bay area is falling weekly but the 1-3 million has a lot of knife catchers still. I think the high end could fall more than 30% from here. they were grossly overinflated.
mmckinl,
"Medicare for all" is our only option? LOL!
Hoopa what line of work are you in. me and you are in the same generational cohort so I feel your pain
I fought traffic and accidents for hours only to check in here and find no bank failures?
Jackknifed tractor trailer on !-95, Carrying Gas!! Road shut down for hours. Had to go over to
U.S. 1.
Pain?? Hoops quit law to study something scientific.
OK, hanging out here starts to change your neural pathways:
Peanut Butter and Jelly BFF T-Shirt | Snorg Tees
I saw "BFF" and thought, "No, that's gotta be pizza."
TJ and The Bear
mmckinl,
"Medicare for all" is our only option? LOL!
~~~~~
The only option if you don't want mandatory individual billing with penalties
and fines for not paying, and higher premiums once they catch you ...
Or taxes on your existing employer plan ...
Wake Up ! They want to skate on a real plan like Canada or France has to
stick the average person with even more overhead just for breathing !
Tim - I hate shopping. I can only imagine how much I will hate shopping for a home, given the people that attach themselves to the transaction to suck money from it. Im nowhere near the ultra high end, but still will fall in the category that is all jumbo and option arm loan buyers of the last few years. And frankly, I dont really want to live in the size of a house that one would pay $1 mil for at today's prices, and an even bigger home will be bought for that in the future. Of course, I know that 1200 sqft homes near silicon valley can be that much, but Im talking east bay hills, where $1 mil is now for about 2000+ sq ft. More than enough space for me thanks. I'll be renting in the areas im looking to buy for a couple of years probably. For now, it's just wait, be patient, see how things go. Figure out what you really want. etc.
I'm from Baltimore. Trust me it isn't a destination city.
There are now a few things to see and do, but I'd never go there If my mom
didn't live there, and now that she's got a sale of the house, I'm just going to
do the closing, and will be surprised if I ever set foot there again.
I saw the cat.
Agree. nice insight. people believe that the market will "trickle up" and the buying activity will move higher. Good luk
Liz, You ever see Johnny Unitas play?
mandatory individual billing with penalties
and fines for not paying, and higher premiums once they catch you ...
Sounds like the IRS, another subsidiary of the DC folks that just happen to run Medicare.
You really should listen to yourself some times... you're a poster child for cognitive dissonance.
How much can I earn as a Home Stager?
Full-time Home Stagers earn $24 – 31/hr.
Part-time or casual Home Stagers earn $24/hr.
Freelance Home Stagers work independently.
-===============
nova - I see you've been visiting starbucks....
Nova--from nothing to 300k underwater in one easy step?
At least in S. Florida, we dragged out the pain.
If Walmart can stay in business selling pickles at $3 a gallon, great. If they're trying to corner the pickle market by taking a short term loss, I think they'll find the entry barriers are as effective as that poor security guard who tried to hold off the thundering herd of mad shoppers. And if their workers can't afford Pampers on minimum wage, they'll have a tough time controlling inventory.
Broward is one of my inspirations...seriously.
On tv, when I was a kid. My family were into baseball, not football. We'd go to
Orioles games, and at one point I lived close enough to the old stadium to walk.
Ordinary people could afford to sit in seats with backs.
The sodas and hot dogs were always expensive (in the less inflated money of the day).
Liz, I don't know...maybe I just wasn't looking in these areas... But 450K for a decent 3/2 with fireplace in a good area here is freakin amazing...
the treasury rally must be in a historical one-day top 20...
that tbt really chafed the ole tuckus today
"But 450K for a decent 3/2 with fireplace in a good area here is freakin amazing... "
even the best parts of alexandria will be $250 sq/ft soon enough
Evening All! How's things going here at Cynical Response?
Can people really even afford 450K?
We have 4/2 1/2 with a fireplace; bought it (really ugly worn finishings) at 162k and at one point it was
north of 700k. Now, who knows?
I would really like to live in Old Town, Alexandria. As long as it had a 2 car garage.
TJ and The Bear
mandatory individual billing with penalties
and fines for not paying, and higher premiums once they catch you ...
~~~
Sounds like the IRS, another subsidiary of the DC folks that just happen to run Medicare.
You really should listen to yourself some times... you're a poster child for cognitive dissonance.
~~~~
Wake Up ... TPTB are going to stick YOU for health insurance to cover everyone when it is their
responsibility ... They are looking out for their donors .... the wealthy and corporations ... Not YOU!
Only a few Dems are pushing for HR 676. The big boys like Baucus and Reid are going to stick YOU!
Wake Up and smell your ass burning ...
GDD,the oakland hills can be nice.Be sure to stay away from shepherd canyon and pay attention to where the nearest fire station is,and how likely it is to be closed.For those who do not know the area,think of shepherd canyon as a chimney full of gasoline soaked kindling (eucalyptus duff is 4 feet thick in places).
real cynics took the 3-1 on the lakers championship a few months ago and gave the srs, tbt, faz and sds a rest... they're doing fine
Even with the mkt down, we couldn't afford to live pleasantly and buy this house with 20% down.
Signing off. Maybe we will have another middle of the week bank failure.
"Now, who knows? "
liz, the market is always there, however we may be unafraid to mark it. if the market is just bottom feeders refusing to pay more than $99 sq/ft, then that is the market. sugarcoating reality is always the most dangerous of vices.
Gee, why on earth would I want to help pay to treat someone else's contagious disease.
.....all the research and marketing money Wal-Mart has and they get it WRONG. The reason for the popularity of the $3 pickle jar IS THE JAR. People like us can't find a glass gallon jar for $3. empty. We buy the pickles FOR THE EMPTY JAR. What a bunch of idiots.
I have no intention of selling, so for the moment I don't care much what it's worth in non-functioning
alleged money. And it's paid for.
It's only a battle if you don't accept it.
LOL! Best answer ever.
Signing off again.
But isn't there a big jar store somewhere?
"for the moment I don't care much "
liz, you are the most interesting internet spectre on here, by a wide margin. your intellectual curiousity and high spirits are a model for all of us younger folk. i sincerely hope you have successfully passed your dna to many grandkids.
Liz, did you grow up in Mencken's neighborhood?
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 10:08 pm
.....all the research and marketing money Wal-Mart has and they get it WRONG. The reason for the popularity of the $3 pickle jar IS THE JAR. People like us can't find a glass gallon jar for $3. empty. We buy the pickles FOR THE EMPTY JAR. What a bunch of idiots.
But we also bought cleverly-marketed tap water for three bucks, and threw away the bottles that were probably worth more than what was in them.
"Here's how Walmart does all that and more. "
And more is an understatement.
I must admit that I get some schadenfreude when I see formerly "chic" jeans on sale for 80% off their former prices at Costco.
When the drug stores start shutting down, a lot of consumables manufacturers are going to get the Walmart treatment, as they won't have as many ways to reach the consumer. Many of them have already curtailed brand-building, which leaves them even more vulnerable.
It's only a battle if you don't accept it.
LOL! Best answer ever.
And as the Italians say, "No solution . . . no problem!"
"When the drug stores start shutting down"
don't worry sm, even when CVS is just a memory, the red-light camera at national and sepulveda will live on
But isn't there a big jar store somewhere?
-yes, it's called Wal-Mart, and the kicker is, the jar comes filled with pickles!
By 1996, was pretty sure the IT boom would blow out like the railroad boom did in the 1890s, and that 30% of those workers would be displaced. I thought the key to surviving was effort and skills but sadly I discovered after the first blowout (2001) is that skills are less important than glad-handing and conformity.
i've pondered it often the past two years. I last worked for a minor Name, former second-tier celebrity, an Alpha male type insistent on 30% growth rates, etc, etc, etc. I learned in the 1980s that sacrificing current customers for the false promise of new customers is a bad path. The Indians haven't learned that yet.
So I finally decided that if what's left is gladhanding sales crap and generating priesthood complexity for job justification, that I'd rather not do it. I'm thinking I'll probably try a government job again, it's a lot less money but I only ever needed that money because of women and ego. My first project with the USDOT paid poorly and my coding sucked but it was the best because I felt like I was accomplishing something.
You just get tired of rorons who are rewarded for stupidity.
Food for thought, Chart of the day:
The price of a median U.S. house expressed in terms of gold
Chicao dude: I hate the big business of baseball, but Wrigley Field is my church, my temple, my spiritual place. If the Cubs moved out, I would go there to watch roller derby and tractor pull.
Just checking in from the road. Yeah, I'm proud to be a cynic.
But if we're really all cynics, is Hoops a cynic for checking out of an unwanted position to remake himself?
I find that to be the sign of an optimist.
Congratulations, Hoops.
Jesus, 26?
Damn, I'm old.
Bottled water? Never. NYC tap water all the way. A million hungry negligence lawyers have to be worth something.
hey Tom, good to see you back. Im not going up into Montclair any further than a block from the village. I figure they'd protect the business district. Plus, with lots of friends in SF, I dont want to be too too far away. BTW< i figured out where Im going to get my license. Now for the boring part of working through the online stuff. Bleh. After this summer's travels I'll start. It will be my reward for propping the euro economy.
"If the Cubs moved out"
Soto's recent ABs have been the best proof yet that the goat is real
.....all the research and marketing money Wal-Mart has and they get it WRONG. The reason for the popularity of the $3 pickle jar IS THE JAR. People like us can't find a glass gallon jar for $3. empty. We buy the pickles FOR THE EMPTY JAR. What a bunch of idiots.
LOL... it scares the poop out of me when I start thinking like BSR...
"You just get tired of rorons who are rewarded for stupidity. "
maybe you're burnt out. i personally think King County is the best place to start a business in the lower 48.
I'll probably try a government job again, it's a lot less money but I only ever needed that money because of women and ego
nice, sm. i do believe that the dow/gold ratio will return to 1 in the not-so-distant future.
what a day, I bought some silver this morning. Didn't check the closing, because of volume spike. I'll look at it in the Journal in the morning. This is the most unreal market I have ever traded.
When the drug stores start shutting down, a lot of consumables manufacturers are going to get the Walmart treatment, as they won't have as many ways to reach the consumer. Many of them have already curtailed brand-building, which leaves them even more vulnerable.
That is a huge problem in lawn & garden mfg - only two real outlets: HD & Lowes.
In fact it forced Briggs & Stratton to buy up some of their customers [the machine builders the engines go in] just so they would have as much negotiating muscle as HD & Lowes. Not everyone can do that.
I guess we're still a long ways off from the collapse of land prices.
My dream is to be able to buy a $100k parcel of land + $150k custom manufactured solar/green home with recycled water system (plus astroturf or some type of low-maintenance lawn). I don't know how much it would cost to transform land into house, probably $75K-100K? $350K seems reasonable for something that I'd be happy with and the wife would be happy with. I doubt land prices get that low in SoCal.
The path we've taken has been so foolish... the old farts don't even realize that they won't have anyone to sell their homes too yet... isn't that like a 100 year old lesson?
I
I'd rather see minor league ball - have lived in cities with clubs ranging from Carolina League (A) to International League (AAA) to Atlantic League.
Seats are inexpensive, beer is good and relatively cheap and the players are fun to watch.
Plus the local minor league puts on regular fireworks displays, a real kick for that entire section of the city.
HH;
"i do believe that the dow/gold ratio will return to 1 in the not-so-distant future. "
I'm inclined to agree with you, now if I only knew when
It's going to be a hell of a ride getting there, if that's where we're headed.
homedad, truly, not all here are cynics. Just my poor attempt at a little humor. Sorry if I offended.
It's kinda scary that sm_landlord posts a vid, so I post an old Fast Company article and not only does everybody read it but comes to some of the same conclusions.
Dryfly is right, thinking too much like BSR can be cause for concern.
sm_landlord (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 8:18 pm
Food for thought, Chart of the day:
The price of a median U.S. house expressed in terms of gold
For even more food and more thought, pricedingold.com has charts of gold vs. the following:
* CAD, AUD and EUR vs USD
* Copper
* Crude Oil
* Custom Charts
* Dow Jones Industrials
* Nikkei Index
* Platinum
* Silver
* Uranium
* US Disposable Income
* US Dollar
* US GDP
* US Home Prices
* US Postage
* US Retail Gasoline
* US Wages
* Wheat
Chart links are in the right sidebar.
YLSP:
My druthers would be to buy some property in the country and then build a small bungalow with geothermal and solar. That's after the kids are finally out of the house - years away - and we're retired.
Problem is that I seriously doubt that in 15 years I'll be able to find a buyer for the existant house willing/able to pay what we paid.
Barfly:
No problem, no offense taken.
thinking too much like BSR can be cause for concern.
My druthers would be to buy some property in the country and then build a small bungalow with geothermal and solar. That's after the kids are finally out of the house - years away - and we're retired.
Problem is that I seriously doubt that in 15 years I'll be able to find a buyer for the existant house willing/able to pay what we paid.
Don't sweat it HD - they probably won't move out... or if they do they'll 'cycle' [move out move back move out move back]...
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 10:16 pm
You just get tired of rorons who are rewarded for stupidity.
The problem here is the presumption (common to math/engineering types, and to good but simple people) that money = value based on competence and that the economic system in which we live is (or mostly is) a meritocracy. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The system best rewards those who serve it best, and who have best internalized its values as their own. You can bullshit other people and even yourself in the short-term, but in the end there is a choice to make... I don't mean you need to become a martyr for a cause or a total yes-man/sellout, those are extremes, between which lies a continuum of possibilities. I think they only become obvious much later in life, when far more of it is spent looking backwards at what has been than forward at what could still be... the terminus of which is of course death. Of course I am partially laughing due to the age discrepancy between us but suppose I am still allowed some measure of youthful naivete, so here is an expression thereof.
one you accept the fact that gold is money and that the dollar is high-school demerits on a global scale it all makes a liitle more sense.
Great link, Coinz.
If you look at the Gold/GDP chart, the real story of the last decade becomes uncomfortably clear.
- thinking like BSR will set you free! You can take that to the bank.
Dawg & I were just ribbing him.
But I too have looked at those pickles and thought - man what a cool jar!
Oh yes. And creditors are all going to go out of business since the debtors can't service the debt.... it's practically like history has shown us what has happened before... but not really...
"Problem is that I seriously doubt that in 15 years I'll be able to find a buyer for the existant house willing/able to pay what we paid."
What entitles you to a free lunch for 15 years? Houses only go down.
YLSP (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 10:27 pm
My dream is to be able to buy a $100k parcel of land + $150k custom manufactured solar/green home with recycled water system (plus astroturf or some type of low-maintenance lawn).
That may almost be doable at or near those price targets in some places out here in flyover country. Especially if/when the ridiculous rise in the price of agricultural land out here falls back to a sustainable level. Farmers got just as stupid as their McMansion counterparts in the city, if not moreso.
@sm_landlord,
True, and the Gold/U.S. Wages tells the same sad story.
Any person who goes into farming and does stupid things never lasts very long - they usually get cashed out pretty fast... The smart farmers run lean and mean and no debt.... and that is most farmers who are born into it or who survive for any length of time...
GDD9000,don't sweat the RE Sales exam.It is a reading comprehension and very basic math test.If you can read at a jr high level and do math well enough to make accurate change you will pass easily barring a serious hangover.Half fail.The Broker and Appraiser tests do take some study...
"The system best rewards those who serve it best, and who have best internalized its values as their own. You can bullshit other people and even yourself in the short-term, but in the end there is a choice to make... I don't mean you need to become a martyr for a cause or a total yes-man/sellout, those are extremes, between which lies a continuum of possibilities."
~~~~
true words ...
That's why I took a Union job and did my investing on the side ... the union protected me from a~holes and
I got great benies if not a great salary ...
It is only in this way I could do my own thing and still set aside enough to retire early and well ... Could I do it again ?
No ... not in this day and age ... the rug has been yanked out from under the middle class for the most part ... My college
tuition was miniscule compared to now, houses were cheap and food cheaper ...
I rode the 30 year Reaganomics Trickle Down Debt Bomb with real estate and cashed out just in time ...
Not a workable plan going forward ...
The plastic and glass containers we discard daily would be treasures of great wonder 200 years ago. "The Gods Must Be Crazy". How can you not like a movie where a Land Rover is named The Anti-Christ and gets caught up in a tree because of yellow flowers on a girl's panties?
I understood the ribbing. I just wanted to make a point.
Those jars are perfect for storing flour, cornmeal, rice, and the like. Damn near anything you don't want mice or bugs getting into. But then, anyone who lives in the country already knows this.
"If you look at the Gold/GDP chart, the real story of the last decade becomes uncomfortably clear. "
In gold, Manhattan real estate has been about flat for most of the last 120 years, according to an study I read a couple years ago.
Night all.
Leftys Liquors Lubricants and Tarp and Bank (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 10:26 pm
* reply
* Ignore user
what a day, I bought some silver this morning. Didn't check the closing, because of volume spike. I'll look at it in the Journal in the morning. This is the most unreal market I have ever traded.
Please, did you buy in person or online?
What was your price per ounce?
Real silver or paper contract?
If on-line order, what is time to fill of order?
"got Wrigley Field and the Chicago Cubs out of the deal!"
LOL!
"Why anyone would ever make a long term investment in the common stock of any retailer that sells something that's been around for more than 10 years is beyond me."
CVS and RSH have been OK for me. Got CVS via CMX and RSH for the digital tuners. Both have been around for a LONG time and pay dividends and earn profits. I am quite fine with that.
"The smart farmers run lean and mean and no debt.... and that is most farmers who are born into it or who survive for any length of time..."
Sadly, how many cashed out some equity with a "HELOC" for a new tractor or combine. Land prices only go up BTW...
Question will those dividends pay off over the next 20 years vs holding RE gold select Bonds etc. i don't think so
the classic metric for an ounce gold is a man's suit, BTW - though a week of rent in a nice part of Manhattan might also work.
here's one of the few original thoughts i have to offer on the subject - gold actually isn't that volatile - take a long, long, long (like 15 yr) trailing average and the 10% or so return has actually been pretty steady for the past 40 years.
Night all,have a good weekend.I went to my weekly funeral today,got one lined up for next month,another probable and I will also be Pallbearer at a wedding (I use the term advisedly).getting old beats the alternative most days...
volker
try Apmex.com. they seem to be pretty reliable from my experience and what i hear. pretty competitive to prices at local coin shops.
Radioshack is gone from my neighborhood. CVS profits will soon go poof.
"Liz, You ever see Johnny Unitas play?"
That is kind of harsh, wouldn't O.J. be less telling?
Radioshack is gone from my neighborhood. CVS profits will soon go poof.
"RSH EPS 1.54 "
"CVS EPS 2.27 "
Not before we get to mad max. For USB cables, batteries and that personal item that you want quickly... Convenience has some value. These guys have been around FOREVER, plan long term and have seen hard times before. I am quite comfortable holding them long term.
Thnx, Guyz, - I think. The glass gallon jar is a relic of time past. We use it also for our canned pickles, our milk, the obvious sun teas and spice/herb storage. We prefer glass to plastic. Vlasic is the only product we've found that provides the gallon GLASS jar. The next best is the gallon glass jar (with spout) for iced tea @ 6.95 from Wal-Mart. BTW, fresh milk in plastic is kinda like "bathroom water vs. kitchen sink water - it's just not as good. LOL.
Maybe this is a convention to teach how to navigate the isles of the stores. I have trouble finding my way around, they came up with a maze a few years ago that is probably designed to keep customers in the store for longer. It has the adverse effect on me. If I can't find what I am looking for quickly, good bye instead of buy. Once I see this layout, I back out and head for another drug store. I hope I am not mistaken, but I think I'm talking about Rite Aid.
In addition, I think a lot of these retail locations should just disappear...they situated themselves right across from wherever their competitor was...this was seen all over the country.
Best solution: close all the Rite Aids.
Nothing of great value is gained by sending overpaid bottle-fillers every year to swill and whore in Baltimore.
How about all of us Bank of America mortgage holders organize a conference call and ask for a 25% reduction in our mortgage payments?
Wow all this praise, I had gone to bed.
I doubt if I grew up in Mencken's neighborhood. He was before my time, and not made much of
when I was a kid.
Anyhow thanks.
The fact that the 'pros' come out in force in the last hour is not news, just as the fact the the first hour of the day has always been amature hour. And the TICK is of some use but, like many other indicators of prior value, it too has become full of statistical noice to the point of becoming only marginally valuable.
i found this interesting site of http://is.gd/HGYt
lots of links to finance and economics articles
Total credit market debt as a percentage of GDP has risen from 130% of GDP in 1952 to 350% of GDP today. The various bailout and stimulus schemes enacted in the last year will drive this percentage above 400% in the near future. When a country allows this much debt to accumulate versus its GDP, they have done something seriously wrong. The country’s politicians, business leaders, and citizens have all contributed to this disaster.
I came across this interesting site..check it out Econ & Finance Articles Updated Daily
The fact that the 'pros' come out in force in the last hour is not news, just as the fact the the first hour of the day has always been amature hour. And the TICK is of some use but, like many other indicators of prior value, it too has become full of statistical noice to the point of becoming only marginally valuable.
i found this interesting site of is.gd/HGYt lots of links to finance and economics articles
Total credit market debt as a percentage of GDP has risen from 130% of GDP in 1952 to 350% of GDP today. The various bailout and stimulus schemes enacted in the last year will drive this percentage above 400% in the near future. When a country allows this much debt to accumulate versus its GDP, they have done something seriously wrong. The country’s politicians, business leaders, and citizens have all contributed to this disaster.
i found this interesting site of is.gd/HGYt lots of links to finance and economics articles