After you've lost your kitchen you have to eat somewhere else, I guess. Good for health care numbers cause that restaurant food will do you in, as in you'll die young and nobody will have to worry about you
Speaking of Timmy and his trip to China: I was fascinated by Speaker Pelosi's quick trip over there (get her out of town, and let things cool down), in which she scolded the Chinese about human rights and the environment.
Then, a week later, Timmy goes over there (ostensibly) to beg for money.
Who plans these things? Whoever does has a tin ear for diplomacy.
byz, i was being a little facetious about being surprised by the largish rally in bonds today. i see the shill buying up close every day, however, today took the cake. the bond market is Hyoooooge.
one surprising thing about today was lack of interest in GDP being down 5.7% from being down 6.1% previously. i think people must believe that GDP stops falling if the percentage decline goes down.
another thing was currencies have dislocated from US markets and US interest rates. they are going on their own path.
"I was fascinated by Speaker Pelosi's quick trip over there (get her out of town, and let things cool down), in which she scolded the Chinese about human rights and the environment.
Then, a week later, Timmy goes over there (ostensibly) to beg for money.
Who plans these things? Whoever does has a tin ear for diplomacy. "
Remember how a few of the dinosaurs were supposed to have two brains, one in the usual place, and one at the base of the spine?
Considering the size and complexity of the government, coordination should come as a surprise.
Come to think of it, I went out Tues night and the restaurant was jam packed. No specials, promotions, must-see sports events... nothing, just packed on a normally slow midweek night.
Lots of folks with $200 or so more per month in their pocket, thanks to a refi. And gas still well down from last year's highs. Guess some good americans are patriotically spending this extra cash on bloomin' onions.
lots of reasons restaurants "appear" packed. First, survivor bias. For a given level of demand, the more that shut down, the fuller the remaining look. But a bigger effect is the shift in spending from big ticket luxury to every day luxury, and reining in of travel, etc, and a reapportioning of dollars to useful luxury. You gotta eat, so not only do you get the benefit of going out more, you dont have to cook that meal. And that decision is made easier by the change in the industry to value priced smaller meals. Not promotions, but a way of repackaging to keep traffic up. Ive seen the industry numbers. Traffic could be worse, but the avg check is also a problem, partly brought on by frugality, but also by the menu pricing. Despite the appearing packe, the overall industry sales numbers arent looking good, and historically are much worse than past recessions. But you dont see the totals when you go to an individual chain location. But on a relative basis, the industry is doing much better in terms of total sales than most others. Not as good as discounters, warehouse, etc, but still slightly positive, as opposed to many retail groups, which are down 10% yoy.
Lets see how long it takes to get 100 comments on how things are much worse than this out there...the doom and gloomers are wrong and losing money. Perma-Anything is never good!
it's not doom and gloom crispy, it's reality. I am actually talking about the real biz. And have direct contact with clients in the industry. You can see your little world of manhattan beach pier and judge industry health from that, or do some real research. In the same way, just because we see the economy up a creek, doesnt mean we dont know how to make money following the liquidity as it sloshes around. A frickin monkey could do that, or they could just sit here, follow Rich's tips, and not need to work.
There's a byo restaurant that I frequent. Their business has definitely picked up since last September. I never liked paying huge mark-ups for alcohol. I have no problem paying for good food and service, but there is no added value on liquor sales and hence no need to pay double.
FWIW, tipping of bartenders in London is basically non-existent. Sometimes, you'll tell the bar keep to "pull" one for himself, but tipping is just not part of the gig.
That's what I see here in Saint Petersburg. It's the 'off' season, and restaurants are folding up like cheap deck chairs. The remaining restaurants are enjoying the business of a stable (and relatively static) clientèle of diners. So, from the point of view of the survivors, things look not quite so bad. Their rate of descent has slowed.
"the doom and gloomers are wrong and losing money."
This doom and gloomer who is short dollar, long COMEX is not feeling so down. Put "straddles" on FAZ/FAS doin' OK too. Gotta say, once the fix was in on TBTF, it was clear what to do. Still waiting for housing to get to 2.5x nationally and I'll be in on property too, rates be damned.
"Heh, heh... I believe you're right, Pavel. You'd think, though, that as important as these things are, they'd hire an expert cat herder.
If the Chinese scold Timmy, and send him packing, I hope no one will be surprised."
Comrade Terry, sometimes I wonder if the organization and operation of the government are beyond any normal human understanding. Imagine being at the helm of an enormous machine that moves and can be steered. Even those trusted with the steering mechanism might not understand the design and operation of what they're steering, or only roughly Imagine then the the machine responds unpredictably to the steering system. Sometimes the machine reacts as it theoretically should, and sometimes there's a different and baffling response. Call the machine the Government, or call it the world economy. Complexity, including the input of human perversity, will guarantee an undependable response.
What is it we have created, until at last it begins to create itself?
Where is the money for all this gov't spending going to come from? Foreigners? then we own less of our country. Printing? that won't work. Earnings? This years deficits will be 2X trend earnings for all U.S. businesses.
Our system is in serious trouble. There might be one or two more reflations, but I see trouble ahead.
Blackhalo, I thought the UN had that handled with a stern letter of warning. Do we really need to send Hillary? What should we give her to bring along as an incentive - Chrysler?
"lots of reasons restaurants "appear" packed. First, survivor bias. For a given level of demand, the more that shut down, the fuller the remaining look. But a bigger effect is the shift in spending from big ticket luxury to every day luxury, and reining in of travel, etc, and a reapportioning of dollars to useful luxury."
Oil at crazy levels again = staycation and favorite eatery. At least I hope so, with my bar/restaurant investment.
"Complexity, including the input of human perversity, will guarantee an undependable response."
Yes, exactly, Pavel. I must admit, that in my somewhat superannuated status, it sure is fascinating to observe.
In the Marine Corps, I operated with 'frag orders', but I had confidence that someone knew what the hell the total program was. That doesn't seem to be the case with this crowd.
In the meantime, I wish Ms. Bair would finish powdering her nose, and close some banks!
"What should we give her to bring along as an incentive - Chrysler? "
Depends, how much do we have to pay them to take it off our hands.
To be honest, starting to second guess my primary vote for Paul, as Hilary MIGHT have been better than O'. Who knew Mr. Hope and Change would be such a tool of the bankers?
The brilliant "green shoots" marketing campaign has clearly had an effect on consumer confidence. I think that the restaurant index and the consumer confidence survey are pretty much synonymous. Going out to eat is the first thing to get cut when consumers feel like they need to be worried. But the green shoots marketing campaign was just that, a marketing campaign. There are no green shoots. Things are getting much worse and the consumer will quickly realize.
"the doom and gloomers are wrong and losing money."
I don't mind when markets are rising and economy is booming. However when someone pretends they have a remote control for the economy and everyone believes them, it's a recipe for a disaster.
Our government should encourage the good behavior and not the behavior that brought us into this mess in the first place.
"its 3 oclock PST, do you know where your bank examiner is?"
Sitting on his ass at home apparently. Very DISAPPOINTED! I mean come on, they must have a 100 of these things lined up to get done. Is it the "green shootz" theme that is the issue?
no offense to the MSM cheerleaders (I mean, they cant really be offended since they have no sense of shame) but how in hell are you going to talk recovery when the last month of the employment report showed nearly -600k? Seriously. Look at the history. Have you ever seen that number turn around on a dime? And this time around, with no industries even remotely close to starting a hiring surge, and plenty still a long way from done with the headcount reductions, what exactly would drive a recovery? A commodity bubble? For fraks sake, this has all been such a blatant pump job that it blows my mind that it was believed for this long already. Yeh, eventually the bleeding slows, but that isnt green shoots. Thats a tourniquet. Ya know what they do after they use one? Yeh, they cut off the part below after two hours or so.
Full restaurant != profitability
In fact, it's often the opposite.
Tru dat.
A restaurateur & 'entertainment consultant' once told me the same thing... never mistake a 'busy' restaurant for a 'profitable' restaurant... the two overlap space with a positive correlation but it is far from 1. He said he could walk through a restaurant - look at the menu [estimate cost of goods] and the head count [staff] and just about know right there if the place even has a chance to make a profit... he said at least half of his clients he consults with were 'lost' right there... they positioned themselves to lose money from the very day they opened. High cost of goods, lots of staff and no way to price sufficiently high to cover those costs... even if they fill the place they will lose money.
Consumer psychology has improved, market has improved, indicators are improving. Sadly there is no fundamental basis for the recovery, besides optimism and the government managing all facets of the credit markets. This is the "rebound of hope". Unfortunately it is unsustainable because consumers are tapped out, earnings will stink, unemployment will keep rising, defaults aren't stopping, banks are still insolvent barring a miracle recovery, our government is broke, and we're not solving the problems -- simply papering them over.
History is full of similar headfakes.
MP, tell Conjure that I'm betting against him. We'll acknowledge that this is a depression by Q409... or sooner.
....hadn't heard that term in decades.........like a sharp blow to the mid-section.
......some restaurants here seem to be doing fine as well, with many older RETIRED people (with the retirement checks) eat out 3-5 times a week. Usually during 'early bird' hours or other daily specials like buffet nights. PLUS, many young people don't know how to boil water much less cook a real meal.
A friend's wife used to own a coffee shop, and one day I asked him about how much she made out of it, and he figured she cleared around $35k a year working 65 hour weeks, and that included watching over the cooks & waitresses to make sure they weren't stealing when she wasn't looking...
The improvement in this index is remarkably similar to the consumer sentiment number, the biggest contributor being the expectations component. Seems like dramatic improvements in employment will be needed to actually meet those expectations...not a decline in the rate of job loss, but actual hiring.
I hear the Census is hiring...that ought to look pretty good in California these days.
Yes, energyecon...what you describe is step 3, step 2 being the recovery in the general stock market, fed by step 1, which was bleeding current and future taxpayers to pump up bank earnings and pretend we weren't (in the words of Ingmar Bergman's Seventh Seal bard DOOMED DOOMED DOOMED!"
You can see this con game still being played out in the WSJ headline I posted earlier (1 minute before posted a new thread)
"GDP Data Encouraging, But Recovery Still Unclear"
Encouraging? -6.1% to -5.7% GDP contraction. Dr. Smith has advised me he will need to amputate 6.1% of my penis. Before the operation he has better news - he only has to take 5.7% of it - hence the headline? Give me a break.
BSR - they are taking out a page from Turdblossom's playbook. They can spitshine any steaming turd they find into a glossy piece of fertilizer with a green shoot growing out of it.
We're a college town wtih a lot of retirees, students, commuters, civil servants... they like good food cheap and don't care about frills. Places like that are doing well; in fact, better than well. The fancy places -- not so much, especially since a lot of them depend on tourist trade. Chain casual-dining places don't do so well around here, and we don't have many.
Actually it seems odd to me that restaurant traffic has not gone up, given the significant rebound in consumer sentiment. Perhaps people are optimistic that things are improving, but are still balance sheet constrained? Or maybe it's just unemployment showing up in the numbers?
I guess I'm cautious about reading too much into the expectations component. But the traffic component is very interesting.
Re: depression, I believe what Conjure says. There probably wont' be a depression this year. 2010, who know? But it's still going to be the worst time that nearly everyone still alive remembers.
We have higher standards now, too. In the early 30s if you got an egg once a day and beans the other two, and lived six people in a two-bedroom house, you were okay. And they'd never even heard of health insurance. Offer that deal to your average millenial American and he'll call it the end of the world.
Michael (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 2:12 pm
I'm hoping the Chinese kidnap Timmy G. this weekend and give him nipple twists till he turns blue in the face.
No I'd prefer they just laugh out loud at Geithner when he tries to reassure China that its massive US bond holdings are safe despite concerns.
HA !!!....US economy carries about $20 trillion of excess debt.
Until that debt is eliminated, the idea of a healthy boom is a mirage.
Let him implode
FDIC Makes Public April Enforcement Actions; One Administrative Hearing is Scheduled for June
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
May 29, 2009
Media Contact:
David Barr (202) 898-6992 dbarr@fdic.gov
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) today released a list of orders of administrative enforcement actions taken against banks and individuals in April. One administrative hearing is scheduled.
The FDIC processed a total of 57 orders in April. These included 24 cease and desist orders; five removal and prohibitions; 17 civil money penalties; seven orders terminating orders to cease and desist; and adjudicated decision.
Copies of the orders referred to above can be obtained from or inspected at the FDIC's Public Information Center, 3501 Fairfax Drive, Room E-1002, Arlington, VA (telephone 703-562-2200 or 1-877-275-3342). To view all orders online, visit the FDIC's Web page at FDIC: FDIC: Enforcement Decisions and Orders. A list of orders made public today follows.
FINAL ORDERS ISSUED PURSUANT TO SECTION 8(b), 12 U.S.C. § 1818(b)
(Cease-and-Desist)
Plaza Bank, Irvine, CA; FDIC-09-175b; Issued 4/29/09 -
Mirae Bank, Los Angeles, CA; FDIC-09-172b; Issued 4/27/09 -
Independence Bank, Newport Beach, CA; FDIC-09-162b; Issued 4/24/09 -
New Resource Bank, San Francisco, CA; FDIC-09-103b; Issued 4/28/09 -
Affinity Bank, Ventura, CA; FDIC-09-086b; Issued 4/22/09 -
Well, with such a terrific month in the bag, are we skipping BFF?
I can't tell much about restaurants around my area, it's a restaurant zoo due to the resort town effect. We have a little over 300 restaurants in a little over 8 square miles. The ones I have walked by recently look like they're doing pretty good business, but as many have pointed out, it's hard to judge their financial condition by how many butts are in seats.
As far as capital expenditures go, there is the usual churn that you would expect, but I haven't see a lot of new openings. They certainly spend a lot of $$ on decorations around here though.
Reading some of the C&D's; one would think they would be the same form? Yet there are differences between the formatting of Mirae Bank and the other 2 CA banks.
Plaza Bank: Within 90 days from the effective date of this ORDER, the Bank shall
increase the Bank’s capital by a minimum of $10,000,000. The increase in capital shall increase
and thereafter maintain the Tier 1 Leverage Capital and Tangible Shareholders’ Equity ratios at
or above eight percent and the Total Risk-Based Capital ratio at or above eleven percent.
Mirae Bank: Within sixty (60) days after the effective date of this ORDER, the Bank shall
increase its Tier 1 capital by not less than $30,000,000, and thereafter shall maintain its Tier 1
capital in an amount not less than eight (8. percent of its total assets. For the purposes of this
ORDER, the terms "Tier 1 capital" and "total assets" shall have the meanings ascribed to them in
Part 325 of the FDIC’s Rules and Regulations, 12 C.F.R. §§ 325.2(v) and 325.2(x).
Independence Bank: Within 120 days from the effective date of this ORDER, the Bank shall
increase the Bank’s Tier 1 Leverage Capital ratio equal to or greater than 9 percent and the
Bank’s Total Risk-Based Capital ratio equal to or greater than 11 percent. These ratios shall be
maintained at or above these levels throughout the life of this ORDER.
There are more paragraphs was just trying to see how much capital they were ordered to raise. I don't even know if that is the right metric to look at...
I don't think the Depression will be confirmed until at least 2011. Even then they will probably make up a new word for it.
Several opportunities to reload the shorts between now and then. Not that anyone cares, but I am reloaded with index puts at the moment. Fortunately the penny gold stocks more than paid for the decaying premiums this week.
Mentioned in a report from Casey Research: "Dr. Marc Faber went on record this week saying he is now convinced that there is a 100% probability that the current crisis will be resolved in hyperinflation."
Cheer me down, dude. I guess it's better than the alternative, and it's what I am expecting as well. I could certainly do without the "hyper" part, though. The question, of course is when.
A Growing Proportion of Restaurant Operators Expect the Economy to Improve the Months Ahead
Restaurant operators continue to grow more optimistic about the economy. Thirty-seven percent of operators said they expect economic conditions to improve in six months, up from 30 percent who reported similarly last month and the highest level in three years... More!
37% of the operators are expecting economic conditions to improve in 6 months; highest level in 3 years!!!!!!!!!!!
What happens to the restaurants that go out of business? I guess they wouldn't report a 0, they would just be "unavailable to fill out the survey"...
Blackhalo: That study was done between 1996 and 1998... what business wasn't doing poor during that time of economic growth that we need to get back to!
"What happens to the restaurants that go out of business? I guess they wouldn't report a 0, they would just be "unavailable to fill out the survey"..."
Survivor bias strikes again.
Still, I don't expect restaurants to hit as hard as auto dealers, for example.
sm_landlord (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 4:28 pm
reply ignore user
"What happens to the restaurants that go out of business? I guess they wouldn't report a 0, they would just be "unavailable to fill out the survey"..."
Survivor bias strikes again.
Still, I don't expect restaurants to hit as hard as auto dealers, for example.
Exactly. What say you and i rent the closed Coco's and Applebee's buildings north of the airport? We rent out the parking lot to BMW and Huyndai for long term storage and the insides for everybody kicked out of hangars. We can make the rent by keeping the bar open.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 4:31 pm
"No I'd prefer they just laugh out loud at Geithner when he tries to reassure China that its massive US bond holdings are safe despite concerns."
Why would they laugh? A lot of it is their money, no?
An easy rhetorical question...
Stay tuned for Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon 2.0....the economic not movie version
So technically would we qualify for membership in the National Restaurant Association?
I would appreciate not being reminded of those restaurants again as well... closing them down is a plus. Today I noticed a Mattress Store with closing sales in the vicinity.
I have a feeling my son is going to grow up with a good recognition of the letters f-o-r-l-e-a-s-e...
ZackAttack (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 4:44 pm
Dammit, I'm decanting a bottle of red. The grill's fired up and ready to roll.
Now, where are the bank failures?
How long do you chill the box before turning the spigot?
China: A country with extraordinary problems, especially those of governance, resources and social stability. She has been throwing out anchors through commercial infiltration and the acquisition of resources abroad, from raw materials to farm land. But China has no ability to project military power beyond her region.
I think that the coming century will see China embroiled in interesting situations. If we get that far. One thing is almost certain: An unstable China could shake the whole world.
I have a feeling my son is going to grow up with a good recognition of the letters f-o-r-l-e-a-s-e...
That's funny... when I was a kid in the early 70's, just beginning to read all the street signs while in the car, my parents claim that there was a nearby office that I called the "nowleasing" building due to the large banner perpetually on display
Rob Dawg wrote;
"We can make the rent by keeping the bar open."
We could name the bar "The Auto Maul".
I stopped by the airport on the way to Oxnard on Monday, and suddenly there are "For Sale" signs on a bunch of hangars. Surprise, surprise. Guess I missed the window
I wonder if the county is taking a hit on ground lease payments? There sure are a bunch of cars parked out back of the tarmac, but I didn't have time to walk over and take a closer look I'm guessing a few hundred at this point. But they have a lot of open space to fill.
@pavel.chichikov
One thing is almost certain: An unstable China could shake the whole world.
I agree but I believe as the the USA has transformed into the USSRA (United Socialist State Republic of America) i.e. socialism for the rich, the well connected and Wall Street where profits are privatized and losses are socialized with the US tax-payer China will try and move more towards the old version of American capitalism with formative middle class.
Not saying China will be successful but they will try just like India.
America has had 50+ yrs of mostly upwards economic growth cycles with better standard of living but this time the damage and greed is so systemic and massive that most Americans should prepare for a declining standard of living.
"China will try and move more towards the old version of American capitalism with formative middle class.
Not saying China will be successful but they will try just like India.
America has had 50+ yrs of mostly upwards economic growth cycles with better standard of living but this time the damage and greed is so systemic and massive that most Americans should prepare for a declining standard of living. "
But China's problem with corruption is so massive that it may even threaten the state, and will also limit the growth of a middle class, which in any case is still very small. India's is even smaller, and there too corruption is a limiting factor.
True but please tell me what country does not have corruption ?
The USA Congress is owned lock stock and barrel by American corporate oligarchy. The past 10+ yrs has been the most corrupt in history
Let me give you acase in point why China will try and move more towards the old version of American capitalism with formative middle class.
Chinese buys 15% of Cleveland Cavaliers to help spread LeBron James brand to the ever expanding Chinese market.
Restaurants are not really a luxury. One kitchen buying, preparing and cooking food for 100 people a night has some economies of scale. In the big cities we usually walk...
"True but please tell me what country does not have corruption ?"
Some have very little. Compared to countries like India,China and Russia, corruption in the US is almost negligible. But there are different forms of corruption in different societies. Buying a judge in the US is very much more difficult and risky than buying a vote.
True but please tell me what country does not have corruption ?
The USA Congress is owned lock stock and barrel by American corporate oligarchy. The past 10+ yrs has been the most corrupt in history
And how did that come out?
Give you a big hint -- Chinese banks make Corus look well-managed.
I watched a couple guys on CNBC talking about Ford. One was a car mag tool and the other was the US car industry hater everyone couldn't stand. The tool talks about how he took the new Taurus home, called it sexy and said that neighbors came over for rides. The hater then talks about how the Japanese have been kicking the Americans asses for 30 years and 'and all you can say is your neighbors came over and liked your Taurus'. Pretty funny.
curious (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 5:09
"Restaurant operators reported negative customer traffic levels for the 20th consecutive month in April."
Wow.
Absolutely. Negative month over month for 20 months? That's insane. btw, I love this blog and all of you. But when someone says 'I went out to eat and the place was full', that doesn't really mean anything.
I'll answer my own question: More than 70 percent of the population had some form of hospital insurance by 1965 (though less than one-half of the elderly population did), 67 percent had surgical in-
surance, and there was a growing market for major medical insurance (Health Insurance Institute, 1980). But few were insured for primary or out-of-hospital care. Of the members of the general population who reported they had "pains in the heart," 25 percent did not see a physician (Andersen and Anderson, 1967). The elderly were particularly hard hit. The classic example of the proposed Medicare beneficiary was the elderly schoolteacher, blameless after a career of work. "I am one of your old retired teachers that has been forgotten," went one story in congressional hearings in 1959: I am 80 years old and for 10 years I have been living on a bare nothing, two meals a day, one egg, a soup, because I want to be independent. I am of Scotch ancestry, my father fought in the Civil War to the end of the war, therefore, I have it in my blood to be independent and my dignity would not let me go down and be on welfare. And I worked so hard that I have pernicious anemia, $9.95 for a little bottle of liquid for shots, wholesale, I couldn't pay for it (Subcommittee on Problems of the Aged and Aging of the Commit tee of Labor and Public Welfare, 1959; Corning, 1969).
Government programs were segmented into programs designed for apparently "deserving" Americans, notably veterans and Federal employees, and for different categories of the poor, State by State, who were by definition "less deserving." Social class, like race, was a topic to which many health practitioners had as yet given little thought, although the topic had important ramifications, both for clinical practice andfor national politics. As one contemporary doctor pointed out, "lower-class" patients were often dissatisfied with their edical
care and "many of them would prefer government medicine" (Storrow, 1963). They were also, he wrote, easily angered, perhaps "physically aggressive when aroused," expected frustration from those in authority, and tended to behave in unexpected ways. But for the poor, the impersonality and rudeness of large hospitals were often deterring factors in seeking care at all. The rift between doctor and patient was evident, and nineteenth century attitudes toward poverty lingered among the more affluent in general. At least one-third of the population said, when polled in 1963, that an individual was personally responsible for his or her own poverty (Schiltz, 1970).
"Buying a judge in the US is very much more difficult and risky than buying a vote."
Can't speak for other countries but I generally agree, at least in New York. There are always exceptions, but very few have been assassinated. One of the judges I worked for refused to shake any lawyer or litigant's hand. "They're going to wonder if something was in it..." He always thought he was underpaid, and probably was, but if anyone ever tried a bribe, he'd probably try to make a citizen's arrest on the spot, unarmed.
I would'nt say that the corruption in the U.S. is negligible compared to say, India. I would agree that the U.S. is less corrupt. But corruption here is not negligible. Two recent examples of systemic corruption in our politics come to mind i.e. no bid contracts to Halliburton and the bank bailouts. When corporations own much of our government and practically the whole senate, that's not negligible corruption. Just because it's done with clean shirts and fancy phrases does not mean tha it's not corruption.
Anyway, what's the scale on which you measure corruption? If India is a 7, the U.S. is at least a 3.
Wait till you see what happens to healthcare reform..
YLSP What happens to the restaurants that go out of business? I guess they wouldn't report a 0, they would just be "unavailable to fill out the survey"...
Yes, but I would still call this a green shoot. This is part of the process of rationalization that comes with a recession. The weakest businesses get killed off, and the survivors then face better business conditions. They start to spend money. They hire a bit. Etc. The upward cycle begins.
There do seem to be quite a few restaurants that have gone down, so probably most of this upturn is survivor's bonus. But that doesn't mean it isn't real.
Of more concern is that the improvement is mostly based on future sexpectations. Still, I believe it, because I thought Memorial Day week (when a lot of people take off) generated good traffic. Maybe a lot of people aren't going to rent the beach house this summer, but at least they'll go out to eat. Every time I look at H.8, I see money slowly building in bank deposits. I think people are paying down credit and living more off cash, and it would be only human to at least spend some this summer.
Forty-six percent of restaurant operators plan to make a capital expenditure for equipment, expansion or remodeling in the next six months, up from 44 percent last month and just 37 percent four months ago.
Interestingly, no one sent this happy-days-r-us memo to Portland's popular Jake's chain.
It's plugging the $7 Blue Plate Special in sidewalk signs.
Very interesting news but let's not forget that summer's coming out and since the begining of spring it only normal that restaurants, especially out door ones have more customers.
They must be serving soylent green shoots. They're the rave these days.
close a bank already......tired of the foreplay.
"Restaurant operators reported negative customer traffic levels for the 20th consecutive month in April."
Wow.
The restaurant I went to at lunch was busy for the first time in a long time.
It will fall again in May and June
Eras End
"It will fall again in May and June "
because....
I'm hoping the Chinese kidnap Timmy G. this weekend and give him nipple twists till he turns blue in the face.
. . .because people have had enough to eat and don't need to eat any more.
After you've lost your kitchen you have to eat somewhere else, I guess. Good for health care numbers cause that restaurant food will do you in, as in you'll die young and nobody will have to worry about you
Banks . . . Banks . . . Banks . . . BANKS!
Speaking of Timmy and his trip to China: I was fascinated by Speaker Pelosi's quick trip over there (get her out of town, and let things cool down), in which she scolded the Chinese about human rights and the environment.
Then, a week later, Timmy goes over there (ostensibly) to beg for money.
Who plans these things? Whoever does has a tin ear for diplomacy.
Economy's fallen back. Little in May, I expect big in June. We won't rebound again to July.
Walstreetpro2 for your entertainment till we get our 1st BFF for today.
printing money to make the stock market go higher screw the swine flu and cap and trade
YouTube - printing money to make the stock market go higher screw the swine flu and cap and trade
Off to Merritt Island.
I will rejoin you when I get up there and I expect to see some failures!!!
byz, i was being a little facetious about being surprised by the largish rally in bonds today. i see the shill buying up close every day, however, today took the cake. the bond market is Hyoooooge.
one surprising thing about today was lack of interest in GDP being down 5.7% from being down 6.1% previously. i think people must believe that GDP stops falling if the percentage decline goes down.
another thing was currencies have dislocated from US markets and US interest rates. they are going on their own path.
This is pretty surprising to me. Almost seems like a green shoot conspiracy to drive momentum.
why are so many planning capital expenditures when their traffic continues to drop?
"I was fascinated by Speaker Pelosi's quick trip over there (get her out of town, and let things cool down), in which she scolded the Chinese about human rights and the environment.
Then, a week later, Timmy goes over there (ostensibly) to beg for money.
Who plans these things? Whoever does has a tin ear for diplomacy. "
Remember how a few of the dinosaurs were supposed to have two brains, one in the usual place, and one at the base of the spine?
Considering the size and complexity of the government, coordination should come as a surprise.
I was talking to my accountant today and he mentionned a few restaurant clients on the ropes.
Off the top of my head I can think of two local eateries that have closed this year.
Is this like the homebuilder survey where only the survivors are reporting and therefore an uptick should be expected as competitors go out?
wake me up when this crosses 100. Til then, I'll watch the green weeds brown up.
Conjure says, "Sorry, no depression this year."
"Almost, but not quite."
"Sorry."
"Have a nice day."
Come to think of it, I went out Tues night and the restaurant was jam packed. No specials, promotions, must-see sports events... nothing, just packed on a normally slow midweek night.
"Considering the size and complexity of the government, coordination should come as a surprise."
Heh, heh... I believe you're right, Pavel. You'd think, though, that as important as these things are, they'd hire an expert cat herder.
If the Chinese scold Timmy, and send him packing, I hope no one will be surprised.
"Sorry, no depression this year."
how does 2010 look?
The recent growth in the RPI was driven by the Expectations component
Hyping the green shoots seems to work, even if actual performance (seen daily) sucks bigger over time.
I wonder if the owners are able to pay workers and buy food with expectation coupons.
Lots of folks with $200 or so more per month in their pocket, thanks to a refi. And gas still well down from last year's highs. Guess some good americans are patriotically spending this extra cash on bloomin' onions.
lots of reasons restaurants "appear" packed. First, survivor bias. For a given level of demand, the more that shut down, the fuller the remaining look. But a bigger effect is the shift in spending from big ticket luxury to every day luxury, and reining in of travel, etc, and a reapportioning of dollars to useful luxury. You gotta eat, so not only do you get the benefit of going out more, you dont have to cook that meal. And that decision is made easier by the change in the industry to value priced smaller meals. Not promotions, but a way of repackaging to keep traffic up. Ive seen the industry numbers. Traffic could be worse, but the avg check is also a problem, partly brought on by frugality, but also by the menu pricing. Despite the appearing packe, the overall industry sales numbers arent looking good, and historically are much worse than past recessions. But you dont see the totals when you go to an individual chain location. But on a relative basis, the industry is doing much better in terms of total sales than most others. Not as good as discounters, warehouse, etc, but still slightly positive, as opposed to many retail groups, which are down 10% yoy.
"how does 2010 look?"
Conjure says, "It's still possible."
"But not this year,"
Come on FDIC, it's 5:30 already on a Friday afternoon.
Lets see how long it takes to get 100 comments on how things are much worse than this out there...the doom and gloomers are wrong and losing money. Perma-Anything is never good!
Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
who? (@ ~ 15:30, number of weeks in a row.)
Starbucks Pushing Landlords for 25% Cut in Cafe Rents
Starbucks Pushing Landlords for 25% Cut in Cafe Rents (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Every restaurant on the Manhattan Beach Pier was jam packed last weekend. Wait times in the 30-60 minutes range...
Doom and gloomers with gold and silver might be wrong, but this month they made a lot of money.
"Then, a week later, Timmy goes over there (ostensibly) to beg for money.
Who plans these things? Whoever does has a tin ear for diplomacy."
Surely, Hilary back next to discuss NK? Related???
"Conjure says, "Sorry, no depression this year."
Even with 12.5% of mortgages in or about to enter foreclosure? On top of the 3+ million already? If that isn't depression, I don't know what is.
"nothing, just packed on a normally slow midweek night."
Remember, lots of graduations going on right now, that could be why.
Last weekend was the holiday weekend. This weekend won't look packed at all.
it's not doom and gloom crispy, it's reality. I am actually talking about the real biz. And have direct contact with clients in the industry. You can see your little world of manhattan beach pier and judge industry health from that, or do some real research. In the same way, just because we see the economy up a creek, doesnt mean we dont know how to make money following the liquidity as it sloshes around. A frickin monkey could do that, or they could just sit here, follow Rich's tips, and not need to work.
There's a byo restaurant that I frequent. Their business has definitely picked up since last September. I never liked paying huge mark-ups for alcohol. I have no problem paying for good food and service, but there is no added value on liquor sales and hence no need to pay double.
FWIW, tipping of bartenders in London is basically non-existent. Sometimes, you'll tell the bar keep to "pull" one for himself, but tipping is just not part of the gig.
"First, survivor bias."
That's what I see here in Saint Petersburg. It's the 'off' season, and restaurants are folding up like cheap deck chairs. The remaining restaurants are enjoying the business of a stable (and relatively static) clientèle of diners. So, from the point of view of the survivors, things look not quite so bad. Their rate of descent has slowed.
"the doom and gloomers are wrong and losing money."
This doom and gloomer who is short dollar, long COMEX is not feeling so down. Put "straddles" on FAZ/FAS doin' OK too. Gotta say, once the fix was in on TBTF, it was clear what to do. Still waiting for housing to get to 2.5x nationally and I'll be in on property too, rates be damned.
and btw, why no posts on the Dollar? (which is just getting slaughtered, today even more so)
My UDN is like a friggin ATM float at a parade, just tossin out candy that looks like money.
"Heh, heh... I believe you're right, Pavel. You'd think, though, that as important as these things are, they'd hire an expert cat herder.
If the Chinese scold Timmy, and send him packing, I hope no one will be surprised."
Comrade Terry, sometimes I wonder if the organization and operation of the government are beyond any normal human understanding. Imagine being at the helm of an enormous machine that moves and can be steered. Even those trusted with the steering mechanism might not understand the design and operation of what they're steering, or only roughly Imagine then the the machine responds unpredictably to the steering system. Sometimes the machine reacts as it theoretically should, and sometimes there's a different and baffling response. Call the machine the Government, or call it the world economy. Complexity, including the input of human perversity, will guarantee an undependable response.
What is it we have created, until at last it begins to create itself?
What Blackdog said. Lots of local places closed recently. Would make sense the traffic would end up at the survivors places.
And what about the 12% of mortgagees that aren't current on their loans? Suppose they are spending their new found wealth at restaurants?
"You can see your little world of Manhattan beach pier and judge industry health from that, or do some real research."
Boots on the ground useful? Whocouldanode?
Crispy&Cole,
Where is the money for all this gov't spending going to come from? Foreigners? then we own less of our country. Printing? that won't work. Earnings? This years deficits will be 2X trend earnings for all U.S. businesses.
Our system is in serious trouble. There might be one or two more reflations, but I see trouble ahead.
"Surely, Hilary back next to discuss NK?"
Blackhalo, I thought the UN had that handled with a stern letter of warning. Do we really need to send Hillary? What should we give her to bring along as an incentive - Chrysler?
"What should we give her to bring along as an incentive - Chrysler?"
Yes!
"lots of reasons restaurants "appear" packed. First, survivor bias. For a given level of demand, the more that shut down, the fuller the remaining look. But a bigger effect is the shift in spending from big ticket luxury to every day luxury, and reining in of travel, etc, and a reapportioning of dollars to useful luxury."
Oil at crazy levels again = staycation and favorite eatery. At least I hope so, with my bar/restaurant investment.
"I thought the UN had that handled with a stern letter of warning"
Nothing like baby blue helmets to put the fear of sanctions into the heathens.
Are the NK's the last of the Goose-Steppers?
"Complexity, including the input of human perversity, will guarantee an undependable response."
Yes, exactly, Pavel. I must admit, that in my somewhat superannuated status, it sure is fascinating to observe.
In the Marine Corps, I operated with 'frag orders', but I had confidence that someone knew what the hell the total program was. That doesn't seem to be the case with this crowd.
In the meantime, I wish Ms. Bair would finish powdering her nose, and close some banks!
"What should we give her to bring along as an incentive - Chrysler? "
Depends, how much do we have to pay them to take it off our hands.
To be honest, starting to second guess my primary vote for Paul, as Hilary MIGHT have been better than O'. Who knew Mr. Hope and Change would be such a tool of the bankers?
Zero Hedge: Guest Post: The Good, The Bad And The GDP
a good reading material.
"Yes!"
Pavel, perhaps we shouldn't be too enthusiastic about that. They may get the impression that we don't value Chrysler too highly.
We wouldn't want to tip our hand, would we?
The brilliant "green shoots" marketing campaign has clearly had an effect on consumer confidence. I think that the restaurant index and the consumer confidence survey are pretty much synonymous. Going out to eat is the first thing to get cut when consumers feel like they need to be worried. But the green shoots marketing campaign was just that, a marketing campaign. There are no green shoots. Things are getting much worse and the consumer will quickly realize.
its 3 oclock PST, do you know where your bank examiner is?
"the doom and gloomers are wrong and losing money."
I don't mind when markets are rising and economy is booming. However when someone pretends they have a remote control for the economy and everyone believes them, it's a recipe for a disaster.
Our government should encourage the good behavior and not the behavior that brought us into this mess in the first place.
"its 3 oclock PST, do you know where your bank examiner is?"
Sitting on his ass at home apparently. Very DISAPPOINTED! I mean come on, they must have a 100 of these things lined up to get done. Is it the "green shootz" theme that is the issue?
Full restaurant != profitability
In fact, it's often the opposite.
no offense to the MSM cheerleaders (I mean, they cant really be offended since they have no sense of shame) but how in hell are you going to talk recovery when the last month of the employment report showed nearly -600k? Seriously. Look at the history. Have you ever seen that number turn around on a dime? And this time around, with no industries even remotely close to starting a hiring surge, and plenty still a long way from done with the headcount reductions, what exactly would drive a recovery? A commodity bubble? For fraks sake, this has all been such a blatant pump job that it blows my mind that it was believed for this long already. Yeh, eventually the bleeding slows, but that isnt green shoots. Thats a tourniquet. Ya know what they do after they use one? Yeh, they cut off the part below after two hours or so.
iran goose steps too
except perma-growth in the rate of oil production, hmmm?
"Full restaurant != profitability
In fact, it's often the opposite."
So, 40 min wait to get in is a BAD thing? I am not sure I follow that logic. I like it when we get to open up the back bar.
long hoopajoops in the tarponomic universe
The Bair which project? allows her team to choose from many an ailing bank.
I'm thinking a dash of Flyover, with just a hint of PNW, and spiced up with something in NM...
I got my money on Georgia. Give it about another hour and a half. They are still figuring out how to spin the headline.
The fullest stores have "50% off, going out of business" on their signs.
Yes, if a restaurant has a long wait, they're annoying customers and their prices are too low.
Basic economics.
Full restaurant != profitability
In fact, it's often the opposite.
Tru dat.
A restaurateur & 'entertainment consultant' once told me the same thing... never mistake a 'busy' restaurant for a 'profitable' restaurant... the two overlap space with a positive correlation but it is far from 1. He said he could walk through a restaurant - look at the menu [estimate cost of goods] and the head count [staff] and just about know right there if the place even has a chance to make a profit... he said at least half of his clients he consults with were 'lost' right there... they positioned themselves to lose money from the very day they opened. High cost of goods, lots of staff and no way to price sufficiently high to cover those costs... even if they fill the place they will lose money.
Interesting guy.
"Restaurant operators reported negative customer traffic levels for the 20th consecutive month in April.
...
Along with an improving outlook,"
Talk about cognitive disonance...sheesh.
Anyway, how are they preparing the bank today? Flambe sounds good.
"even if they fill the place they will lose money."
I sold a business to a guy who doubled the gross and went broke! He gave it away and tried to make it up on volume!
they positioned themselves to lose money from the very day they opened
To some extent, that's what the Indians and Chinese are doing.
Pricing labor below the purchase price of their products.
They just haven't figured it out yet.
"I got my money on Georgia."
I can appreciate your preference for a seeming sure thing, but lobby hours are over in the EDT zone.
Maybe in the CDT zone. Whom do you like there?
"They are still figuring out how to spin the headline."
I heard they were having trouble obtaining fuel for the pizza ovens.
Consumer psychology has improved, market has improved, indicators are improving. Sadly there is no fundamental basis for the recovery, besides optimism and the government managing all facets of the credit markets. This is the "rebound of hope". Unfortunately it is unsustainable because consumers are tapped out, earnings will stink, unemployment will keep rising, defaults aren't stopping, banks are still insolvent barring a miracle recovery, our government is broke, and we're not solving the problems -- simply papering them over.
History is full of similar headfakes.
MP, tell Conjure that I'm betting against him. We'll acknowledge that this is a depression by Q409... or sooner.
'frag orders'
....hadn't heard that term in decades.........like a sharp blow to the mid-section.
......some restaurants here seem to be doing fine as well, with many older RETIRED people (with the retirement checks) eat out 3-5 times a week. Usually during 'early bird' hours or other daily specials like buffet nights. PLUS, many young people don't know how to boil water much less cook a real meal.
So I'm interviewing with this guy sent from my brother.
He asks, "How many siblings do you have?"
I'm taken aback, I didn't expect that question.
I have to think about it.
What's the right answer?
"Well, there were five of us"
"Were? How many are there now?"
"hmmm, I guess 3 1/2"
His eyes go quirky and he doesn't ask any more followup questions.
A friend's wife used to own a coffee shop, and one day I asked him about how much she made out of it, and he figured she cleared around $35k a year working 65 hour weeks, and that included watching over the cooks & waitresses to make sure they weren't stealing when she wasn't looking...
It's a total papier mache trick. Little mexican kids are going to come in blindfolded with sticks soon, thinking our economic recovery is a pinata.
The improvement in this index is remarkably similar to the consumer sentiment number, the biggest contributor being the expectations component. Seems like dramatic improvements in employment will be needed to actually meet those expectations...not a decline in the rate of job loss, but actual hiring.
I hear the Census is hiring...that ought to look pretty good in California these days.
Usually during 'early bird' hours
"I'm not going to force feed myself a steak at 4:30 just to save a couple bucks! " - Jerry Seinfeld
Yes, energyecon...what you describe is step 3, step 2 being the recovery in the general stock market, fed by step 1, which was bleeding current and future taxpayers to pump up bank earnings and pretend we weren't (in the words of Ingmar Bergman's Seventh Seal bard
DOOMED DOOMED DOOMED!"
You can see this con game still being played out in the WSJ headline I posted earlier (1 minute before posted a new thread)
"Corporate Profits Rebounded in 1st Quarter "
U.S. Firms End Streak Of Quarterly Losses - WSJ.com
ok, that was not supposed to be a smiley face, rather a closed parentheses, and a colon. ARGH!
"....hadn't heard that term in decades.........like a sharp blow to the mid-section."
Sorry for the punch, BSR. Since you know what it means, I'm sure you can appreciate the comparison.
"GDP Data Encouraging, But Recovery Still Unclear"
Encouraging? -6.1% to -5.7% GDP contraction. Dr. Smith has advised me he will need to amputate 6.1% of my penis. Before the operation he has better news - he only has to take 5.7% of it - hence the headline? Give me a break.
BSR - they are taking out a page from Turdblossom's playbook. They can spitshine any steaming turd they find into a glossy piece of fertilizer with a green shoot growing out of it.
np, Terry - Yep
We're a college town wtih a lot of retirees, students, commuters, civil servants... they like good food cheap and don't care about frills. Places like that are doing well; in fact, better than well. The fancy places -- not so much, especially since a lot of them depend on tourist trade. Chain casual-dining places don't do so well around here, and we don't have many.
We could turn these restaurants around if gov't would distribute dining-out vouchers.
"I hear the Census is hiring...that ought to look pretty good in California these days."
Got an e-mail saying one of my ex-coworkers got a job at treasury/TARP.
The recession ain't over until strip clubs turn around; no sign of bottom there besides the one in your lap.
Joyless recovery even when the recession ends next Spring.
Actually it seems odd to me that restaurant traffic has not gone up, given the significant rebound in consumer sentiment. Perhaps people are optimistic that things are improving, but are still balance sheet constrained? Or maybe it's just unemployment showing up in the numbers?
I guess I'm cautious about reading too much into the expectations component. But the traffic component is very interesting.
I had some delicious Kumamoto Oysters at home yesterday ....very little reason to go out unless on company expense account.
gonna step away from the doom pipe for awhile, later
OT: Whither news on the Chrysler front?
Re: depression, I believe what Conjure says. There probably wont' be a depression this year. 2010, who know? But it's still going to be the worst time that nearly everyone still alive remembers.
We have higher standards now, too. In the early 30s if you got an egg once a day and beans the other two, and lived six people in a two-bedroom house, you were okay. And they'd never even heard of health insurance. Offer that deal to your average millenial American and he'll call it the end of the world.
Michael (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 2:12 pm
I'm hoping the Chinese kidnap Timmy G. this weekend and give him nipple twists till he turns blue in the face.
No I'd prefer they just laugh out loud at Geithner when he tries to reassure China that its massive US bond holdings are safe despite concerns.
HA !!!....US economy carries about $20 trillion of excess debt.
Until that debt is eliminated, the idea of a healthy boom is a mirage.
Let him implode
Geithner imploding means BB and Summers are next.....
Re: Bob Dobbs, funny you mention health insurance...
Can someone explain how people went to the Dr's office 30-40 years ago? Why the cost disparity in our current age?
Your future BFF candidates
FDIC Makes Public April Enforcement Actions; One Administrative Hearing is Scheduled for June
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
May 29, 2009
Media Contact:
David Barr (202) 898-6992
dbarr@fdic.gov
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) today released a list of orders of administrative enforcement actions taken against banks and individuals in April. One administrative hearing is scheduled.
The FDIC processed a total of 57 orders in April. These included 24 cease and desist orders; five removal and prohibitions; 17 civil money penalties; seven orders terminating orders to cease and desist; and adjudicated decision.
Copies of the orders referred to above can be obtained from or inspected at the FDIC's Public Information Center, 3501 Fairfax Drive, Room E-1002, Arlington, VA (telephone 703-562-2200 or 1-877-275-3342). To view all orders online, visit the FDIC's Web page at FDIC: FDIC: Enforcement Decisions and Orders. A list of orders made public today follows.
FINAL ORDERS ISSUED PURSUANT TO SECTION 8(b), 12 U.S.C. § 1818(b)
(Cease-and-Desist)
Plaza Bank, Irvine, CA; FDIC-09-175b; Issued 4/29/09 -
Mirae Bank, Los Angeles, CA; FDIC-09-172b; Issued 4/27/09 -
Independence Bank, Newport Beach, CA; FDIC-09-162b; Issued 4/24/09 -
New Resource Bank, San Francisco, CA; FDIC-09-103b; Issued 4/28/09 -
Affinity Bank, Ventura, CA; FDIC-09-086b; Issued 4/22/09 -
Rocky Mountain Bank & Trust Florence, Florence, CO; FDIC-09-065b; Issued 4/2/09 -
New Frontier Bank, Greeley, CO; FDIC-09-146b; Issued 4/6/09 -
Coastal Community Bank, Panama City Beach, FL; FDIC-09-062b; Issued 4/22/09 -
Georgia Heritage Bank, Dallas, GA; FDIC-09-013b; Issued 4/24/09 -
Appalachian Community Bank, Ellijay, GA; FDIC-09-010b; Issued 4/24/09 -
Security Bank of Jones County, Gray, GA; FDIC-09-124b; Issued 4/17/09 -
Community Capital Bank, Jonesboro, GA; FDIC-09-019b; Issued 4/16/09 -
Security Bank of Bibb County, Macon, GA; FDIC-09-050b; Issued 4/17/09 -
Security Bank of Gwinnett County, Suwanee, GA; FDIC-08-411b; Issued 4/17/09 -
Security Bank of North Metro, Woodstock, GA; FDIC-09-116b; Issued 4/17/09 -
Bank of Lincolnwood, Lincolnwood, IL; FDIC-09-135b; Issued 4/21/09 -
West Suburban Bank, Lombard, IL; FDIC-08-384b; Issued 4/23/09 -
First Mariner Bank, Baltimore, MD; FDIC-07-285b; FDIC-08-358k; Issued 4/22/09 -
Butler Bank, Lowell, MA; FDIC-09-148b; Issued 4/17/09 -
Riverview Community Bank, Otsego, MN; FDIC-09-064b; Issued 4/7/09 -
Carson River Community Bank, Carson City, NV; FDIC-09-067b; Issued 4/3/09 -
Great Basin Bank of Nevada, Elko, NV; FDIC-09-095b; Issued 4/15/09 )
Badger State Bank, Cassville, WI; FDIC-09-077b; Issued 4/30/09 -
Marine Bank, Wauwatosa, WI;
Well, with such a terrific month in the bag, are we skipping BFF?
I can't tell much about restaurants around my area, it's a restaurant zoo due to the resort town effect. We have a little over 300 restaurants in a little over 8 square miles. The ones I have walked by recently look like they're doing pretty good business, but as many have pointed out, it's hard to judge their financial condition by how many butts are in seats.
As far as capital expenditures go, there is the usual churn that you would expect, but I haven't see a lot of new openings. They certainly spend a lot of $$ on decorations around here though.
Reading some of the C&D's; one would think they would be the same form? Yet there are differences between the formatting of Mirae Bank and the other 2 CA banks.
Plaza Bank: Within 90 days from the effective date of this ORDER, the Bank shall
increase the Bank’s capital by a minimum of $10,000,000. The increase in capital shall increase
and thereafter maintain the Tier 1 Leverage Capital and Tangible Shareholders’ Equity ratios at
or above eight percent and the Total Risk-Based Capital ratio at or above eleven percent.
Mirae Bank: Within sixty (60) days after the effective date of this ORDER, the Bank shall
percent of its total assets. For the purposes of this
increase its Tier 1 capital by not less than $30,000,000, and thereafter shall maintain its Tier 1
capital in an amount not less than eight (8.
ORDER, the terms "Tier 1 capital" and "total assets" shall have the meanings ascribed to them in
Part 325 of the FDIC’s Rules and Regulations, 12 C.F.R. §§ 325.2(v) and 325.2(x).
Independence Bank: Within 120 days from the effective date of this ORDER, the Bank shall
increase the Bank’s Tier 1 Leverage Capital ratio equal to or greater than 9 percent and the
Bank’s Total Risk-Based Capital ratio equal to or greater than 11 percent. These ratios shall be
maintained at or above these levels throughout the life of this ORDER.
There are more paragraphs was just trying to see how much capital they were ordered to raise. I don't even know if that is the right metric to look at...
I don't think the Depression will be confirmed until at least 2011. Even then they will probably make up a new word for it.
Several opportunities to reload the shorts between now and then. Not that anyone cares, but I am reloaded with index puts at the moment. Fortunately the penny gold stocks more than paid for the decaying premiums this week.
I absolutely will never buy a car from Government Motors. I wonder if my 2k in GM bucks will still be good.
Going on-topic due to the dearth of BFF
RESTAURANT FAILURE RATE MUCH LOWER THAN COMMONLY ASSUMED, STUDY FINDS
Restaurant Failure Rate Much Lower Than Commonly Assumed, Study Finds
I guess not everyone can be Phil Romano.
Mentioned in a report from Casey Research: "Dr. Marc Faber went on record this week saying he is now convinced that there is a 100% probability that the current crisis will be resolved in hyperinflation."
Cheer me down, dude. I guess it's better than the alternative, and it's what I am expecting as well. I could certainly do without the "hyper" part, though. The question, of course is when.
"I absolutely will never by a car from Government Motors. I wonder if my 2k in GM bucks will still be good. "
Maybe Fiat will honor them like super markets do!
The NRA site was great for a chuckle:
A Growing Proportion of Restaurant Operators Expect the Economy to Improve the Months Ahead
Restaurant operators continue to grow more optimistic about the economy. Thirty-seven percent of operators said they expect economic conditions to improve in six months, up from 30 percent who reported similarly last month and the highest level in three years... More!
37% of the operators are expecting economic conditions to improve in 6 months; highest level in 3 years!!!!!!!!!!!
What happens to the restaurants that go out of business? I guess they wouldn't report a 0, they would just be "unavailable to fill out the survey"...
Blackhalo: That study was done between 1996 and 1998... what business wasn't doing poor during that time of economic growth that we need to get back to!
"What happens to the restaurants that go out of business? I guess they wouldn't report a 0, they would just be "unavailable to fill out the survey"..."
Survivor bias strikes again.
Still, I don't expect restaurants to hit as hard as auto dealers, for example.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 4:05 pm
FINAL ORDERS ISSUED PURSUANT TO SECTION 8(b), 12 U.S.C. § 1818(b)
(Cease-and-Desist)
...
Affinity Bank, Ventura, CA; FDIC-09-086b; Issued 4/22/09 -
My favorite on the list. Future poster child for CRE exposure.
"No I'd prefer they just laugh out loud at Geithner when he tries to reassure China that its massive US bond holdings are safe despite concerns."
Why would they laugh? A lot of it is their money, no?
"what business wasn't doing poor during that time of economic growth that we need to get back to! "
Hey, I was just going Google on RFF!
sm_landlord (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 4:28 pm
reply ignore user
"What happens to the restaurants that go out of business? I guess they wouldn't report a 0, they would just be "unavailable to fill out the survey"..."
Survivor bias strikes again.
Still, I don't expect restaurants to hit as hard as auto dealers, for example.
Exactly. What say you and i rent the closed Coco's and Applebee's buildings north of the airport? We rent out the parking lot to BMW and Huyndai for long term storage and the insides for everybody kicked out of hangars. We can make the rent by keeping the bar open.
"Yes, exactly, Pavel. I must admit, that in my somewhat superannuated status, it sure is fascinating to observe."
Are you and I contemporaries, Comrade Terry? I was born in the 30s, a pre-boomer.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 4:31 pm
"No I'd prefer they just laugh out loud at Geithner when he tries to reassure China that its massive US bond holdings are safe despite concerns."
Why would they laugh? A lot of it is their money, no?
An easy rhetorical question...
Stay tuned for Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon 2.0....the economic not movie version
Another instance of counter-trend.
I always owned an American car, not anymore. It's Japanese all the way from now on.
Dammit, I'm decanting a bottle of red. The grill's fired up and ready to roll.
Now, where are the bank failures?
So technically would we qualify for membership in the National Restaurant Association?
I would appreciate not being reminded of those restaurants again as well... closing them down is a plus. Today I noticed a Mattress Store with closing sales in the vicinity.
I have a feeling my son is going to grow up with a good recognition of the letters f-o-r-l-e-a-s-e...
I'm boycotting Chrysler and GM. Will Ford be next on my list?
ZackAttack (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 4:44 pm
Dammit, I'm decanting a bottle of red. The grill's fired up and ready to roll.
Now, where are the bank failures?
How long do you chill the box before turning the spigot?
Patience, tis not even 5PM on the left coast.
ZackAttack,
Wake up! You are like Haley Joel Osmont in 6th Sense... the banks are already dead...
China: A country with extraordinary problems, especially those of governance, resources and social stability. She has been throwing out anchors through commercial infiltration and the acquisition of resources abroad, from raw materials to farm land. But China has no ability to project military power beyond her region.
I think that the coming century will see China embroiled in interesting situations. If we get that far. One thing is almost certain: An unstable China could shake the whole world.
awesome left coast weather today
H:81° L:47°
I have a feeling my son is going to grow up with a good recognition of the letters f-o-r-l-e-a-s-e...
That's funny... when I was a kid in the early 70's, just beginning to read all the street signs while in the car, my parents claim that there was a nearby office that I called the "nowleasing" building due to the large banner perpetually on display
Rob Dawg wrote;
"We can make the rent by keeping the bar open."
We could name the bar "The Auto Maul".
I stopped by the airport on the way to Oxnard on Monday, and suddenly there are "For Sale" signs on a bunch of hangars. Surprise, surprise. Guess I missed the window
I wonder if the county is taking a hit on ground lease payments? There sure are a bunch of cars parked out back of the tarmac, but I didn't have time to walk over and take a closer look I'm guessing a few hundred at this point. But they have a lot of open space to fill.
@pavel.chichikov
One thing is almost certain: An unstable China could shake the whole world.
I agree but I believe as the the USA has transformed into the USSRA (United Socialist State Republic of America) i.e. socialism for the rich, the well connected and Wall Street where profits are privatized and losses are socialized with the US tax-payer China will try and move more towards the old version of American capitalism with formative middle class.
Not saying China will be successful but they will try just like India.
America has had 50+ yrs of mostly upwards economic growth cycles with better standard of living but this time the damage and greed is so systemic and massive that most Americans should prepare for a declining standard of living.
"We can make the rent by keeping the bar open."
I've always understood that most of the profit is in the drinks. The waiters certainly behave that way.
Now that the government owns American auto manufacturers I can say with certainty, American cars are unreliable.
"China will try and move more towards the old version of American capitalism with formative middle class.
Not saying China will be successful but they will try just like India.
America has had 50+ yrs of mostly upwards economic growth cycles with better standard of living but this time the damage and greed is so systemic and massive that most Americans should prepare for a declining standard of living. "
But China's problem with corruption is so massive that it may even threaten the state, and will also limit the growth of a middle class, which in any case is still very small. India's is even smaller, and there too corruption is a limiting factor.
True but please tell me what country does not have corruption ?
The USA Congress is owned lock stock and barrel by American corporate oligarchy. The past 10+ yrs has been the most corrupt in history
Let me give you acase in point why China will try and move more towards the old version of American capitalism with formative middle class.
Chinese buys 15% of Cleveland Cavaliers to help spread LeBron James brand to the ever expanding Chinese market.
I rest my case
"I am reloaded with index puts..."
How does at work when the index is reconstituted, are they adjusted?
crispyandcole (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 5:32 pm
Lets see how long it takes to get 100 comments on how things are much worse than this out there...
Make sure you get your winnings off the table and cashed out before the casino goes busto.
Restaurants are not really a luxury. One kitchen buying, preparing and cooking food for 100 people a night has some economies of scale. In the big cities we usually walk...
"True but please tell me what country does not have corruption ?"
Some have very little. Compared to countries like India,China and Russia, corruption in the US is almost negligible. But there are different forms of corruption in different societies. Buying a judge in the US is very much more difficult and risky than buying a vote.
km4 (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 8:04 pm
True but please tell me what country does not have corruption ?
The USA Congress is owned lock stock and barrel by American corporate oligarchy. The past 10+ yrs has been the most corrupt in history
And how did that come out?
Give you a big hint -- Chinese banks make Corus look well-managed.
if the west coast gets it it will be 9pm before they let us know
banks close 6p.m. on fridays here in ga,
maybe 1 in each time zone?
No one answered my OT question on health insurance... what did people do 20-30 years ago for health insurance?
Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide - Online Daily Newspaper on Hellenic and International Shipping
Bunker oil prices on the move. Gonna crimp the rally in the Baltic Dry.
I watched a couple guys on CNBC talking about Ford. One was a car mag tool and the other was the US car industry hater everyone couldn't stand. The tool talks about how he took the new Taurus home, called it sexy and said that neighbors came over for rides. The hater then talks about how the Japanese have been kicking the Americans asses for 30 years and 'and all you can say is your neighbors came over and liked your Taurus'. Pretty funny.
curious (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 5:09
"Restaurant operators reported negative customer traffic levels for the 20th consecutive month in April."
Wow.
Absolutely. Negative month over month for 20 months? That's insane. btw, I love this blog and all of you. But when someone says 'I went out to eat and the place was full', that doesn't really mean anything.
I'll answer my own question:
More than 70 percent of the population had some form of hospital insurance by 1965 (though less than one-half of the elderly population did), 67 percent had surgical in-
surance, and there was a growing market for major medical insurance (Health Insurance Institute, 1980). But few were insured for primary or out-of-hospital care. Of the members of the general population who reported they had "pains in the heart," 25 percent did not see a physician (Andersen and Anderson, 1967). The elderly were particularly hard hit. The classic example of the proposed Medicare beneficiary was the elderly schoolteacher, blameless after a career of work. "I am one of your old retired teachers that has been forgotten," went one story in congressional hearings in 1959: I am 80 years old and for 10 years I have been living on a bare nothing, two meals a day, one egg, a soup, because I want to be independent. I am of Scotch ancestry, my father fought in the Civil War to the end of the war, therefore, I have it in my blood to be independent and my dignity would not let me go down and be on welfare. And I worked so hard that I have pernicious anemia, $9.95 for a little bottle of liquid for shots, wholesale, I couldn't pay for it (Subcommittee on Problems of the Aged and Aging of the Commit tee of Labor and Public Welfare, 1959; Corning, 1969).
Government programs were segmented into programs designed for apparently "deserving" Americans, notably veterans and Federal employees, and for different categories of the poor, State by State, who were by definition "less deserving." Social class, like race, was a topic to which many health practitioners had as yet given little thought, although the topic had important ramifications, both for clinical practice andfor national politics. As one contemporary doctor pointed out, "lower-class" patients were often dissatisfied with their edical
care and "many of them would prefer government medicine" (Storrow, 1963). They were also, he wrote, easily angered, perhaps "physically aggressive when aroused," expected frustration from those in authority, and tended to behave in unexpected ways. But for the poor, the impersonality and rudeness of large hospitals were often deterring factors in seeking care at all. The rift between doctor and patient was evident, and nineteenth century attitudes toward poverty lingered among the more affluent in general. At least one-third of the population said, when polled in 1963, that an individual was personally responsible for his or her own poverty (Schiltz, 1970).
Interesting... reading more from this link...
"Buying a judge in the US is very much more difficult and risky than buying a vote."
Can't speak for other countries but I generally agree, at least in New York. There are always exceptions, but very few have been assassinated. One of the judges I worked for refused to shake any lawyer or litigant's hand. "They're going to wonder if something was in it..." He always thought he was underpaid, and probably was, but if anyone ever tried a bribe, he'd probably try to make a citizen's arrest on the spot, unarmed.
I would'nt say that the corruption in the U.S. is negligible compared to say, India. I would agree that the U.S. is less corrupt. But corruption here is not negligible. Two recent examples of systemic corruption in our politics come to mind i.e. no bid contracts to Halliburton and the bank bailouts. When corporations own much of our government and practically the whole senate, that's not negligible corruption. Just because it's done with clean shirts and fancy phrases does not mean tha it's not corruption.
Anyway, what's the scale on which you measure corruption? If India is a 7, the U.S. is at least a 3.
Wait till you see what happens to healthcare reform..
YLSP What happens to the restaurants that go out of business? I guess they wouldn't report a 0, they would just be "unavailable to fill out the survey"...
Yes, but I would still call this a green shoot. This is part of the process of rationalization that comes with a recession. The weakest businesses get killed off, and the survivors then face better business conditions. They start to spend money. They hire a bit. Etc. The upward cycle begins.
There do seem to be quite a few restaurants that have gone down, so probably most of this upturn is survivor's bonus. But that doesn't mean it isn't real.
Of more concern is that the improvement is mostly based on future sexpectations. Still, I believe it, because I thought Memorial Day week (when a lot of people take off) generated good traffic. Maybe a lot of people aren't going to rent the beach house this summer, but at least they'll go out to eat. Every time I look at H.8, I see money slowly building in bank deposits. I think people are paying down credit and living more off cash, and it would be only human to at least spend some this summer.
Are the NK's the last of the Goose-Steppers?
Forty-six percent of restaurant operators plan to make a capital expenditure for equipment, expansion or remodeling in the next six months, up from 44 percent last month and just 37 percent four months ago.
Interestingly, no one sent this happy-days-r-us memo to Portland's popular Jake's chain.
It's plugging the $7 Blue Plate Special in sidewalk signs.
Very interesting news but let's not forget that summer's coming out and since the begining of spring it only normal that restaurants, especially out door ones have more customers.
But are things really improving?
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Regards,
Alex
Test post on a dead thread.