What are the magic numbers that spell doom for a business in this day and age?
depends on the leverage/capitalization ratios. For example, credit cards and CRE defaults are not as catastrophic as mortgages because regulators have always required more capital for those assets.
my dad has a business that has 0 debt. he's patiently biding his time as 20% revenue declines destroy his competition.
It's ok. All that excess central bank liquidity is now flowing into commodities. That should put some extra money into the pockets of consumers - in the OPEC countries - d'oh!
Who's buying all the Treasuries? Yields are now under 3.5. With the big run-up in commodities, you'd think there would be more inflation concern. Still a big rise over the past 2 weeks.
my dad has a business that has 0 debt. he's patiently biding his time as 20% revenue declines destroy his competition.
Basel,
Let's hope the Fed doesn't destroy his customers while he is waiting. That's what I see happening. We have to sacrifice main street in order to save wall street.
What a CONcept. It's doing wonders for the the hotel industry.
A hotel/motel that is closed an unattended is a huge crime magnet - seen it before - if there is one near you, it might need to have an accidental fire...
Who's buying all the Treasuries? Yields are now under 3.5.
Speculators believe that BB HAS to get rates lower to keep mortgage rates under 5% to keep the green shoots growing. BB hints that he's not purchasing any more.
someone should tell chopper ben there is an upper limit to possible bond prices unless he is going to pay a premium over spot or start giving them away for free.
Lol Market watch headline SILVER UP 27%....hahahah talk about late to the party, enjoy that $17 plus spot buy....we were buying Silver @ $5 / $7? and $9
I'd like to know who controls the clipboard where it allots sheepdog and wolf status and what particular bona fides were presented.
The thing about canines, wolves and sheepdog alike, is that without discipline, they basically just run riot and do what's doggish for the moment. it takes a skillful, knowledgable and stern hand to turn a dog into something other than a foraging felon.
I think that a lot of sheepdogs were left undisciplined by a few very clever wolves, until they're not much like sheepdog at all. It seems to me a lot of "sheepdogs" are holding their oaths of service over their eyes so they don't have to see their duty as Citizens is to resign the oath. It's a lot easier to be TOLD you're a sheepdog than to BE one. Dogs are lazy. Dogs don't want to go against their packmates. Why would an undisciplined dog ask hard questions when there are woodchucks to chase?
But what do I know, I just have a "sheepdog: semper vigilio" shirt and a scout rifle.
It's just an orgy of day-trading speculation in the long T bond market today, and it has nothing to do with anything real, other than manipulation and greed. Probably, a lot of bond shorts are getting reamed and having to cover. TBT is getting slammed. If it keeps going another day or two, it's a buying op in TBT.
The fact that the volatility/manipulation carnival has moved into T-bonds isn't a very good sign for markets.
Byzantine_Ruins (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 11:50 am
I'd like to know who controls the clipboard where it allots sheepdog and wolf status and what particular bona fides were presented.
What, 5 years and somebody finally figures out the "dawg" meme?
"RockyR
If you're out there, the bet could end within your favour very soon. If it does, congratulations in advance because I will be out of town for the next week. I'm always too early"
It doesn't matter what Bernanke does. Way too many Americans are tapped out and their future employment and earnings situations certainly don't justify more household debt.
Bernanke is saving wall street at the expense of main street.
Lol Market watch headline SILVER UP 27%....hahahah talk about late to the party, enjoy that $17 plus spot buy....we were buying Silver @ $5 / $7? and $9
Hey, I started talking about SLW here when it was $2.80.
Today's blog messages to dealer via web ( more to it be don't want to spell out)
Request for Finance; going through marital separation. credit is suffering partly due to being co-signer on chrysler pacifica that husband is not paying in a timely manner. have aid off multiple deliquent credit card accounts - may not yet be reflected on actual credit report, but have documentation of pay-off.
Request for Finance: hey im trying to find a car that i can depend on and afford
Request for Finance: thanks for you assistance
Request for Finance: I have not been contacted regarding my application. Please contact me today.
Request for Finance: Hi, had recent foreclosure on home so credit worse than bad. Have good job teaching high school but zero credit; am okay with high interest, long loan term, have money to put down. Thanks for anything you can do
Dryfly will recognize this blast from the past and just what it means; Sinking in a sea of milk.
Excerpt: Frustrated with low milk prices, dairy farmers are selling cows for hamburger meat and threatening to dump milk into sewers. Many are burning through their life savings hoping to survive the slump, and others are exiting the business.
okay, so there are some signs of less steep declines or flatness. will it double dip....flatline or slow grow from here. (no effin' way it's gonna snap back to strong growth) so until we get more data points ove the next 3-6 months, I'll keep watching for (mortgage) pigs on the wing
"...Thou shalt not do as the dean pleases,
Thou shalt not write thy doctor’s thesis
On education,
Thou shalt not worship projects nor
Shalt thou or thine bow down before
Administration.
Thou shalt not answer questionnaires
Or quizzes upon World-Affairs,
Nor with compliance
Take any test. Thou shalt not sit
With statisticians nor commit
A social science...."
In this case I agree with Citi - these S&P rating cuts are likely too harsh. Even if 100% of the loans below a 1.1 dcr default, 100% go into foreclosure, there is a massive 50% average severity of loss rate (even during the great depression it was likely not 50%), and assuming double the standard cost/fees of sale, the rating cuts S&P are proposing are way too harsh.
Who would have thought more than 10% of all mortgages in the country could be in some stage of delinquency? Maybe, just maybe, something rated AAA should be able to withstand something WORSE than the great depression.
I can break plenty of A4 bonds without stretching a downside case too far.
S&P is finally trying to do the right thing, and noone is going to let them.
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 12:15 pm
"Frustrated with low milk prices, dairy farmers are selling cows for hamburger meat and threatening to dump milk into sewers. "
I noticed that. Too bad for the dairy producers they produce a perishable good that can't be a substitute currency.
Paying too much for land, relying on petroleum chemicals for food stock growing, cheap transport, high taxes, the inefficiencies of a monopoly cartel, on and on.
The exact same thing happened in the beginning of May. Yields jumped from 3.15 to 3.35 in a couple of days after a 30yr auction went badly. Over the next few days, Yields fell back to 3.15. However, over the next few weeks yields crept back up to 3.5, the shot to 3.7. I suspect BB called some friends at the PBOC and BOJ to buy T bills and stem the panic. In the next few weeks, I think we'll be back to 3.7, or higher. Commodities are a huge inflation play, and there is so much debt coming down the pike.
"I suspect BB called some friends at the PBOC and BOJ to buy T bills and stem the panic. In the next few weeks, I think we'll be back to 3.7, or higher. Commodities are a huge inflation play, and there is so much debt coming down the pike."
I can't help think that lots and lots of ill-advised land speculation in the central valley related to unnecessary residential real estate drove up the land costs for dairy farmers and help bring them to this sad state
Dryfly will recognize this blast from the past and just what it means; Sinking in a sea of milk.
Excerpt:
Frustrated with low milk prices, dairy farmers are selling cows for hamburger meat and threatening to dump milk into sewers. Many are burning through their life savings hoping to survive the slump, and others are exiting the business.
Two farmers have killed themselves.
Hoocoodanode?
LOL - Ya Hoocoodanode. I've been waiting for this for a LONG time... about three years ago I heard stories of CBOT traders pooling money to buy farms in central Illinois at $6K/acre... city slickers buying farms... dog help us... even ass kick dirt like that able to kick out 200 bu/acre corn won't cashflow at $6K/acre.
The problem w/ dairy [article] is it is extremely capital intensive and nowhere is it more so than Cali & Florida where not only is land expensive... they have to irrigate and even air condition the herd [contrary to the Cali dairy advert campaign... hot cows are NOT happy cows].
And how did they 'acquire' all that capital? Credit.
Watch this story play out - the roots of the failure are well planted... but the full harvest of tears is still two-three years out. Farmers are the last to walk away - usually dragged away if not in a coffin.
Congrats BB, you've turned every market into a casino. Every investment has to be made with has to be made with the thought of "what will Bernanke/Obama" do today. Rather than growth, we will have volatility. These swings must be playing havoc with mortgage lenders.
I recall a development that was being marketed to Indians just outside of Bakersfield that had a dairy farm located right next to it so that you could "live amongst the gods". The uproar came when the rule about locating a dairy farm next to a development was rewritten to allow you to do the opposite and get away with it.
With all the recent focus on the bonds market, I have a feeling we are starting to see a lot of dumb money speculators/day traders jumping in. Again, thanks BB.
Oh, come on... It was obvious Ben was going to have try to do something about:
Loan Type Today Last Week
30 Year Fixed 5.27% 4.98%
15 Year Fixed 4.87% 4.63%
1 Year ARM 4.29% 4.61%
30 Year Fixed Jumbo 6.50% 6.27%
5/1 ARM 4.67% 4.60%
3/1 ARM 4.73% 4.70%
The question is can he afford to sustain it without crashing the dollar or blowing up oil? Cause ~3.30$ a gallon J6P is going to start getting interested and a 4$ it is like giving the Senate to the (R). There are a lot of TARP voters that are in for some tough primaries and 2010 elections.
The retooled factory will be able to build 160,000 cars per year, GM said. It would create 1,200 jobs, the person said, offsetting some of the 21,000 that will be lost when GM closes the 14 factories by the end of next year.
In temples, Shiva linga - the PHALLIC symbol of Lord Shiva - is worshipped. Devotees flock to the temples to perform the ritual of bathing the Shiva linga.
It is bathed with MILK, water and honey, and then anointed with sandalwood paste, and decorated with flowers and garlands.
but if we manufactured the phallic symbols here, bathed them in every house and were paid by the govt to observe this ritual every 2 months it just might work and help mutilple industries....
Yeah, but oil is up to $66.38 at the moment and the dollar is getting crushed.
It almost looks to me that we're seeing the dollar become a the same sort of vehicle for overseas slaughter and destruction that the Yen was for so many years.
That is exactly why I am so pessimistic. Now that the government has become the controlling interest in major banks, mortgage companies, insurance companies and auto makers, it is becoming impossible to efficiently allocate capital. On a stupider note, check out the sweet late day rally shaping up. Right on cue.
Is it possible to find or calculate hotel occupancy rate by state or region? Things aren't exactly booming in the resort town I live in, but some of the hotels/motels looked pretty full Memorial Day weekend.
I have no idea of what kind of deals some of them are offering to attract business. Seems as though the city has decided to come up some kind of event or "festival" every weekend since February's Seafood & Wine festival in an effort to attract visitors. Lots of traffic last weekend including a surprising number of McRVs but don't know how much people were spending. I've seen a few articles (& heard a few people say) that coastal areas may do ok, maybe, this summer, because people still want to "go away" but will choose or be forced to vacation relatively close to home. So far, I'm seeing lots of plates from ID, UT, CA, WA, Canadian provinces, TX, AZ, I guess that's relatively local.
OT, heard from a housing/mobile home park activist that some people are living in RVs while renting out homes in effort to keep homes/houses. I guess my sympathy for them is a limited, if they financed the RV via the home ATM, then it's oh well, you took the risk. I'm seeing vacancy/for rent signs in some of the mobile home/RV parks in about a 35 mile radius for the first time in years & maybe I'll see if I can ask around to find out how many more people are living on their boats (marina) this year than last.
The average price of Minnesota farmland topped $3,000 an acre last year, a dramatic 13 percent jump from the year before _ reflecting a bygone boom in grain prices that have since plunged amid a global recession.
[...]
What the sales trends do show, Taff said, is that farmland prices in Minnesota have "gone ever onward and upward, year after year _ good year and bad years, recessions or no recessions, high corn prices or low corn prices."
He added, "Of course, we used to think that about residential real estate, and that's what people are telling me _ just you wait, farm real estate will go down in 2009."
Small cars won't sell. GM has had small cars available for ever. Opel, Dawoo, Chevy Spark. Ever see a dealer with more then one or two Chevy Aveos? UAW in control already with Obamas blessing. Say go by to apple pie!
"The question is can he afford to sustain it without crashing the dollar or blowing up oil? Cause ~3.30$ a gallon J6P is going to start getting interested and a 4$ it is like giving the Senate to the (R)."
You are asking exactly the right question.
Note:
"U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders has asked the federal futures market regulator to crack down on speculators whom he blamed for pushing up crude oil and gasoline prices."
Sort of reminds me in that scene from "Hunt for Red October" where the the captain (Shaun Connery) is told that the men are fearful and the captain responds that "that may be useful".
"If you're out there, the bet could end within your favour very soon. If it does, congratulations in advance because I will be out of town for the next week. I'm always too earyl"
Damn. Thank you Comrade Terry. I'm sorry I missed him. He certainly seems like a great guy. We'll hope $70 oil can hold off until he gets back
That is exactly why I am so pessimistic. Now that the government has become the controlling interest in major banks, mortgage companies, insurance companies and auto makers, it is becoming impossible to efficiently allocate capital. On a stupider note, check out the sweet late day rally shaping up. Right on cue.
We've seen this movie before. Last August/Sept. It ends as a horror movie for longs.
Small cars will sell. American small cars won't. Like the Brits before us, we squandered our energy and talent playing world police and pushing paper. Our competitors focused on building better mousetraps. Screw it. Empires wither and die. Ours is no different.
Now that the government has become the controlling interest in major banks, mortgage companies, insurance companies and auto makers, it is becoming impossible to efficiently allocate capital.
These entities weren't doing a particularly good job of efficiently allocating capital before, were they?
"Was there ever any doubt that this game ends in a currency crisis?"
Well, one hoped that it would end with 19 TBTF, AIG, FRN/FRE in BK, but yeah UDN and long commodities, looking good. With Ben, and Timmy G. F'n with the equities and bonds, those seem somewhat less predictable. Perhaps the end game is the FED owning all toxic assets with their infinite liquidity to hold them while the aforementioned disasters are recapitalized under new management.
ghostfaceinvestah: Wow, today was the best PPT day EVER! 80 Dow Points in like 2 minutes.
Pretty impressive - according to Google finance, volume was anemic at around 185M shares just before that pump action hit. Final volume 363M with the moving average at 348M to start the day. Hey - Dow up three months in a row! Green shootz!
No disrespect, to be fair, you started talking about SLW when it was $7 and then went down to $2. However, you agressively started talking about it when it was down there. More power to you!
Dryfly: I've been waiting for this for a LONG time... about three years ago I heard stories of CBOT traders pooling money to buy farms in central Illinois at $6K/acre... city slickers buying farms... dog help us...
Heard that refugee Illinois farmers have been buying land in Southwestern Iowa the past few years. That fits your picture.
My old employer GM facing bankruptcy and the markets close green. I feel like a sailor in the waters off Midway must have felt watching his Yorktown slip beneath the waves, except that the sailors on the other ships weren't cheering that day. A behemoth finally meets destiny but American manufacturing will move on. Just hope the lesson is learned not to let the finance department practice incest in the executive suite for generations.
Money doesn’t grow on trees for most of America. We sit down at our kitchen tables and write out checks to the phone-company, electric company, credit card-company, mortgage-company, and auto finance company every month. We clip coupons and go to the grocery store every week to put food in the mouths of our children. This is what our parents did before us.
bankers selling our childrens futures..for more bailouts? the disgrace. it's horrible. too big to fail needs to fail. we neeed LESS bailouts. If you fail U fail. Tons of informative articles.
How did I beat Nemo?
Pigged!
"There will always be sheep, wolves, and sheep dogs."
Nova, are you a fan of Bill Whittle (Eject! Eject! Eject!)?
What are the magic numbers that spell doom for a business in this day and age?
Chargeoffs in the creditcard industry are around 10%, does 15% do them in?
Hotel revenue rates are off 20%, does 30% do them in?
What are the magic numbers that spell doom for a business in this day and age?
depends on the leverage/capitalization ratios. For example, credit cards and CRE defaults are not as catastrophic as mortgages because regulators have always required more capital for those assets.
my dad has a business that has 0 debt. he's patiently biding his time as 20% revenue declines destroy his competition.
It's ok. All that excess central bank liquidity is now flowing into commodities. That should put some extra money into the pockets of consumers - in the OPEC countries - d'oh!
Hotel revenue rates are off 20%, does 30% do them in?
great question; are their flexible costs so flexible that they can still burn neutral at revenues down 20% ?
Juvenal Delinquent, I think RevPAR off 20% is going to kill a lot of operators - especially those with heavy debt (as Basel Too notes).
best wishes
CR,
-10% RevPAR is enough to kill many operators. That's a case of sequential [domino] default.
Who's buying all the Treasuries? Yields are now under 3.5. With the big run-up in commodities, you'd think there would be more inflation concern. Still a big rise over the past 2 weeks.
my dad has a business that has 0 debt. he's patiently biding his time as 20% revenue declines destroy his competition.
Basel,
Let's hope the Fed doesn't destroy his customers while he is waiting. That's what I see happening. We have to sacrifice main street in order to save wall street.
What a CONcept. It's doing wonders for the the hotel industry.
A hotel/motel that is closed an unattended is a huge crime magnet - seen it before - if there is one near you, it might need to have an accidental fire...
Is there any good way to see the INTERVENTION in the treasury markets, buyers sellers ?
man, 10 YR yield off 5.5%.
chopper ben is thumbing his nose at the world!
Who's buying all the Treasuries? Yields are now under 3.5.
Speculators believe that BB HAS to get rates lower to keep mortgage rates under 5% to keep the green shoots growing. BB hints that he's not purchasing any more.
Let's see who blinks first.
Wow! 10-year at 348. Nothing like a little volatility.
Hotel rooms are like airplane seats, it doesn't matter if they are filled or not, except when it comes to making money.
Is EHP here? Just $4 and some change to go before I get can claim my winnings.
Speculators believe that BB HAS to get rates lower
so as long as they believe that and act accordingly, he doesn't actually have to do it, correct?
someone should tell chopper ben there is an upper limit to possible bond prices unless he is going to pay a premium over spot or start giving them away for free.
Lol Market watch headline SILVER UP 27%....hahahah talk about late to the party, enjoy that $17 plus spot buy....we were buying Silver @ $5 / $7? and $9
hahahahah!
I'd like to know who controls the clipboard where it allots sheepdog and wolf status and what particular bona fides were presented.
The thing about canines, wolves and sheepdog alike, is that without discipline, they basically just run riot and do what's doggish for the moment. it takes a skillful, knowledgable and stern hand to turn a dog into something other than a foraging felon.
I think that a lot of sheepdogs were left undisciplined by a few very clever wolves, until they're not much like sheepdog at all. It seems to me a lot of "sheepdogs" are holding their oaths of service over their eyes so they don't have to see their duty as Citizens is to resign the oath. It's a lot easier to be TOLD you're a sheepdog than to BE one. Dogs are lazy. Dogs don't want to go against their packmates. Why would an undisciplined dog ask hard questions when there are woodchucks to chase?
But what do I know, I just have a "sheepdog: semper vigilio" shirt and a scout rifle.
It's just an orgy of day-trading speculation in the long T bond market today, and it has nothing to do with anything real, other than manipulation and greed. Probably, a lot of bond shorts are getting reamed and having to cover. TBT is getting slammed. If it keeps going another day or two, it's a buying op in TBT.
The fact that the volatility/manipulation carnival has moved into T-bonds isn't a very good sign for markets.
Byzantine_Ruins (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 11:50 am
I'd like to know who controls the clipboard where it allots sheepdog and wolf status and what particular bona fides were presented.
What, 5 years and somebody finally figures out the "dawg" meme?
RockyR, to you from EHP from two threads down:
"RockyR
If you're out there, the bet could end within your favour very soon. If it does, congratulations in advance because I will be out of town for the next week. I'm always too early"
rich - who needs penny stocks anymore ?
"What are the magic numbers that spell doom for a business in this day and age?"
There are none, hasn't the govt taught you anything? There is no level of business deterioration that is too bad for the govt stop propping you up.
The govt has given everyone a put option on failure.
It doesn't matter what Bernanke does. Way too many Americans are tapped out and their future employment and earnings situations certainly don't justify more household debt.
Bernanke is saving wall street at the expense of main street.
Tough times ahead.
Hey, I started talking about SLW here when it was $2.80.
Now $10.40.
"Who's buying all the Treasuries?"
Who do you think?
Hope you weren't planning on traveling overseas this summer.
Or driving.
I wonder just how anxious for gunplay all the Walter Mitty Sobchaks, really are?
"It doesn't matter what Bernanke does."
It does matter. It matters whether we get good old fashioned stagflation or Weimar-Germany style hyperinflation.
See you at the pump.
Could the long bond be the beneficiary of several juicings at once - Ben buying & end-of-month rebalance ? I would be curious about volumes...
Comrade Terry
No, sorry - never heard of him.
Good day Rich I buy physical only....I like to touch it, figuratively speaking of course.
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 2:54 pm
Hope you weren't planning on traveling overseas this summer.
Or driving.
Agreed. Massive display of firepower, but the power lies in the potential, no the reality. Ben is spooked and squeezing the trigger as fast as he can.
OT-
Today's blog messages to dealer via web ( more to it be don't want to spell out)
Request for Finance; going through marital separation. credit is suffering partly due to being co-signer on chrysler pacifica that husband is not paying in a timely manner. have aid off multiple deliquent credit card accounts - may not yet be reflected on actual credit report, but have documentation of pay-off.
Request for Finance: hey im trying to find a car that i can depend on and afford
Request for Finance: thanks for you assistance
Request for Finance: I have not been contacted regarding my application. Please contact me today.
Request for Finance: Hi, had recent foreclosure on home so credit worse than bad. Have good job teaching high school but zero credit; am okay with high interest, long loan term, have money to put down. Thanks for anything you can do
Jubilee where art thou?
Dryfly will recognize this blast from the past and just what it means; Sinking in a sea of milk.
Excerpt:
Frustrated with low milk prices, dairy farmers are selling cows for hamburger meat and threatening to dump milk into sewers. Many are burning through their life savings hoping to survive the slump, and others are exiting the business.
Two farmers have killed themselves.
Hoocoodanode?
This is priceless. Bernie Sanders is asking that criminal Gary Gensler to stop the speculators who are driving up the price of oil.
Bernie, introducing a Senate version of HR 1207 would be a good start.
Rich,
you seem to be "spot" on with many of your picks..congrats on another one....
"Could the long bond be the beneficiary of several juicings at once - Ben buying & end-of-month rebalance ? I would be curious about volumes..."
Buying MBS leads to lower Treasury yields, the tail wags the dog.
okay, so there are some signs of less steep declines or flatness. will it double dip....flatline or slow grow from here. (no effin' way it's gonna snap back to strong growth) so until we get more data points ove the next 3-6 months, I'll keep watching for (mortgage) pigs on the wing
RD-Thats scary..
Alex,
I'll take history repeats itself again for $2000.00
Anyone notice whether Bernenke's right thumb is swollen from hitting the buy button so much?
"Is there any good way to see the INTERVENTION in the treasury markets, buyers sellers ?"
If the dollar goes down with yields, I would say something is up.
poic (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 12:09 pm
Anyone notice whether Bernenke's right thumb is swollen from hitting the buy button so much?
If you knew where Bernanke's thumb was really inserted you'd KNOW when he pressed harder.
From Under Which Lyre
A Reactionary Tract for the Times
by W. H. Auden
"...Thou shalt not do as the dean pleases,
Thou shalt not write thy doctor’s thesis
On education,
Thou shalt not worship projects nor
Shalt thou or thine bow down before
Administration.
Thou shalt not answer questionnaires
Or quizzes upon World-Affairs,
Nor with compliance
Take any test. Thou shalt not sit
With statisticians nor commit
A social science...."
Carrying over from last thread -
In this case I agree with Citi - these S&P rating cuts are likely too harsh. Even if 100% of the loans below a 1.1 dcr default, 100% go into foreclosure, there is a massive 50% average severity of loss rate (even during the great depression it was likely not 50%), and assuming double the standard cost/fees of sale, the rating cuts S&P are proposing are way too harsh.
Who would have thought more than 10% of all mortgages in the country could be in some stage of delinquency? Maybe, just maybe, something rated AAA should be able to withstand something WORSE than the great depression.
I can break plenty of A4 bonds without stretching a downside case too far.
S&P is finally trying to do the right thing, and noone is going to let them.
"Frustrated with low milk prices, dairy farmers are selling cows for hamburger meat and threatening to dump milk into sewers. "
I noticed that. Too bad for the dairy producers they produce a perishable good that can't be a substitute currency.
mmmmmmmmmm....hamburger meat
"Maybe, just maybe, something rated AAA should be able to withstand something WORSE than the great depression."
I was going to post the same thing - that is the key, that is their AAA rating criteria.
NOT "this is what we think is going to happen next year"
BUT "this is what we think is going to happen WTSHTF".
And based on the volatility in the (non-stock) markets this week, we are getting closer and closer to the AAA scenario.
Cheese can last more than 10 years.
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/29/2009 - 12:15 pm
"Frustrated with low milk prices, dairy farmers are selling cows for hamburger meat and threatening to dump milk into sewers. "
I noticed that. Too bad for the dairy producers they produce a perishable good that can't be a substitute currency.
Paying too much for land, relying on petroleum chemicals for food stock growing, cheap transport, high taxes, the inefficiencies of a monopoly cartel, on and on.
"If the dollar goes down with yields, I would say something is up. "
That, or treasuries and oil going in the same direction, hard.
WRT 10yr yields:
The exact same thing happened in the beginning of May. Yields jumped from 3.15 to 3.35 in a couple of days after a 30yr auction went badly. Over the next few days, Yields fell back to 3.15. However, over the next few weeks yields crept back up to 3.5, the shot to 3.7. I suspect BB called some friends at the PBOC and BOJ to buy T bills and stem the panic. In the next few weeks, I think we'll be back to 3.7, or higher. Commodities are a huge inflation play, and there is so much debt coming down the pike.
still paying $3.49 a gallon here in Bethesda MD
"Too bad for the dairy producers they produce a perishable good that can't be a substitute currency."
Time for government cheese?
"I suspect BB called some friends at the PBOC and BOJ to buy T bills and stem the panic. In the next few weeks, I think we'll be back to 3.7, or higher. Commodities are a huge inflation play, and there is so much debt coming down the pike."
I agree whole heartedly.
When the banks are forced to deleverage, it won't be inflationary.
will we see a resurgence of "free gubmint cheese" as made famous by Jesse Jackson on SNL
Gubmint cheese made the best grilled cheese sandwiches.
bernanke toweled wearing thimbles on all thumbs
I can't help think that lots and lots of ill-advised land speculation in the central valley related to unnecessary residential real estate drove up the land costs for dairy farmers and help bring them to this sad state
Dryfly will recognize this blast from the past and just what it means; Sinking in a sea of milk.
Excerpt:
Frustrated with low milk prices, dairy farmers are selling cows for hamburger meat and threatening to dump milk into sewers. Many are burning through their life savings hoping to survive the slump, and others are exiting the business.
Two farmers have killed themselves.
Hoocoodanode?
LOL - Ya Hoocoodanode. I've been waiting for this for a LONG time... about three years ago I heard stories of CBOT traders pooling money to buy farms in central Illinois at $6K/acre... city slickers buying farms... dog help us... even ass kick dirt like that able to kick out 200 bu/acre corn won't cashflow at $6K/acre.
The problem w/ dairy [article] is it is extremely capital intensive and nowhere is it more so than Cali & Florida where not only is land expensive... they have to irrigate and even air condition the herd [contrary to the Cali dairy advert campaign... hot cows are NOT happy cows].
And how did they 'acquire' all that capital? Credit.
Watch this story play out - the roots of the failure are well planted... but the full harvest of tears is still two-three years out. Farmers are the last to walk away - usually dragged away if not in a coffin.
As I recall places like Stockton, Modesto, Visalia are high up on the foreclosure lists
Who will be the john mellencamp of California?
maybe Bret Michels?
Congrats BB, you've turned every market into a casino. Every investment has to be made with
In the upcoming hyperdevaluation (like hyperinflation w/o paper money) what flavour do we get?
2001-2 Argentina quick 2/3rds surgical strike devaluation
1970's-1990's Mexico everlasting devaluation
1921-23 Weimar Absurdity
1949 China dash to get rid of cash
1980's Yugoslavian Balkans billionaire boys club
1946 Hungarian wrapsody
there's got to be a way to water the brown foreclosure lawns in Riverside with surplus milk
Congrats BB, you've turned every market into a casino. Every investment has to be made with has to be made with the thought of "what will Bernanke/Obama" do today. Rather than growth, we will have volatility. These swings must be playing havoc with mortgage lenders.
Acquaintance told me he and his wife recently stayed at a very nice hotel in NYC on East 34th St for $80 per night.
there's got to be a way to water the brown foreclosure lawns in Riverside with surplus milk
While drinking ethanol... KNURD!
scotto-
I recall a development that was being marketed to Indians just outside of Bakersfield that had a dairy farm located right next to it so that you could "live amongst the gods". The uproar came when the rule about locating a dairy farm next to a development was rewritten to allow you to do the opposite and get away with it.
BTW nice little pump in GM there.....
Ciao
MS
"I suspect BB called some friends at the PBOC and BOJ to buy T bills and stem the panic."
doesn't have to, he buys MBS, and the rest naturally follows.
but i agree with the direction, i don't know about a few weeks, but come Sept/Oct, yields are going to explode.
maybe the "new GM" will "innovate" a milk-powered car!
With all the recent focus on the bonds market, I have a feeling we are starting to see a lot of dumb money speculators/day traders jumping in. Again, thanks BB.
Thread music: Government Cheese by the Rainmakers
I guess the gov't will become part of the Dow 30 on Monday when GM files for bankrupcy.
In a way they already are via several financials.
AS-
The new ticker symbol will be: FUA
As in F*** Us All
Ciao
MS
Oh, come on... It was obvious Ben was going to have try to do something about:
Loan Type Today Last Week
30 Year Fixed 5.27% 4.98%
15 Year Fixed 4.87% 4.63%
1 Year ARM 4.29% 4.61%
30 Year Fixed Jumbo 6.50% 6.27%
5/1 ARM 4.67% 4.60%
3/1 ARM 4.73% 4.70%
The question is can he afford to sustain it without crashing the dollar or blowing up oil? Cause ~3.30$ a gallon J6P is going to start getting interested and a 4$ it is like giving the Senate to the (R). There are a lot of TARP voters that are in for some tough primaries and 2010 elections.
I guess the gov't will become part of the Dow 30 on Monday
=======
I vote google, internet advertising is the wealth creator of the future
maybe apple and google can innovate a milk-powered car
I hear they are good at innovation
"The new ticker symbol will be: FUA "
Is FUBAR already in use?
or how about: POS (it used to be some marketing company but it's not presently in use.)
Ciao
MS
What if they replaced GM with DIA? Or would that create a circular reference error?
GM to build compact cars in US
The retooled factory will be able to build 160,000 cars per year, GM said. It would create 1,200 jobs, the person said, offsetting some of the 21,000 that will be lost when GM closes the 14 factories by the end of next year.
green shoots!
Once a government or central bank start manipulating financial markets, they can't stop.
They don't want to stop. They don't know how to stop. And ultimately, they don't have the ability to stop.
There's no 12 step program for govt. intervention in financial markets.
I am trying to make good investment picks for this era of crazy govt. manipulation and pass them on.
But I'm not trying to kill.
I want to keep all daily losses on my total positions to 1.0% or less.
And I want 60% of days to be up.
May was a good month. I had no days with a loss of more than 1.0% and only six losing days in all of 20.
memo to GM: It doesn't matter what you build.
No jobs, no credit, no car
too much milk- I have an idea
In temples, Shiva linga - the PHALLIC symbol of Lord Shiva - is worshipped. Devotees flock to the temples to perform the ritual of bathing the Shiva linga.
It is bathed with MILK, water and honey, and then anointed with sandalwood paste, and decorated with flowers and garlands.
We could just start something like that here in the US or Sin City...Darn.... I forgot we already have the Adult Porn convention in Vegas..
Porn industry feeling pain as expo hits Vegas - Thursday, Jan. 8, 2009 | 3 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun
but if we manufactured the phallic symbols here, bathed them in every house and were paid by the govt to observe this ritual every 2 months it just might work and help mutilple industries....
,
The UAW says the cuts will save GM $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion a year.
======
ok, only like $30B in cuts to go to profitability!
"I vote Google, internet advertising is the wealth creator of the future"
Well, maybe the far future. There is talk of monopoly, by MSFT fans, I am sure.
I vote AAPL. I am not a fan, but they are firing on all cylinders and have diversified very well. Double plus if Jobs lives out the year.
man, 10 YR yield off 5.5%.
chopper ben is thumbing his nose at the world!
Yeah, but oil is up to $66.38 at the moment and the dollar is getting crushed.
It almost looks to me that we're seeing the dollar become a the same sort of vehicle for overseas slaughter and destruction that the Yen was for so many years.
Rich:
That is exactly why I am so pessimistic. Now that the government has become the controlling interest in major banks, mortgage companies, insurance companies and auto makers, it is becoming impossible to efficiently allocate capital. On a stupider note, check out the sweet late day rally shaping up. Right on cue.
It is bathed with MILK, water and honey, and then anointed with sandalwood paste, and decorated with flowers and garlands.
=====
we can use the washington monument
Is it possible to find or calculate hotel occupancy rate by state or region? Things aren't exactly booming in the resort town I live in, but some of the hotels/motels looked pretty full Memorial Day weekend.
I have no idea of what kind of deals some of them are offering to attract business. Seems as though the city has decided to come up some kind of event or "festival" every weekend since February's Seafood & Wine festival in an effort to attract visitors. Lots of traffic last weekend including a surprising number of McRVs but don't know how much people were spending. I've seen a few articles (& heard a few people say) that coastal areas may do ok, maybe, this summer, because people still want to "go away" but will choose or be forced to vacation relatively close to home. So far, I'm seeing lots of plates from ID, UT, CA, WA, Canadian provinces, TX, AZ, I guess that's relatively local.
OT, heard from a housing/mobile home park activist that some people are living in RVs while renting out homes in effort to keep homes/houses. I guess my sympathy for them is a limited, if they financed the RV via the home ATM, then it's oh well, you took the risk. I'm seeing vacancy/for rent signs in some of the mobile home/RV parks in about a 35 mile radius for the first time in years & maybe I'll see if I can ask around to find out how many more people are living on their boats (marina) this year than last.
shill...you are nothing but a shill!
FOR DAWG
The average price of Minnesota farmland topped $3,000 an acre last year, a dramatic 13 percent jump from the year before _ reflecting a bygone boom in grain prices that have since plunged amid a global recession.
[...]
What the sales trends do show, Taff said, is that farmland prices in Minnesota have "gone ever onward and upward, year after year _ good year and bad years, recessions or no recessions, high corn prices or low corn prices."
He added, "Of course, we used to think that about residential real estate, and that's what people are telling me _ just you wait, farm real estate will go down in 2009."
What could possibly go wrong?
Small cars won't sell. GM has had small cars available for ever. Opel, Dawoo, Chevy Spark. Ever see a dealer with more then one or two Chevy Aveos? UAW in control already with Obamas blessing. Say go by to apple pie!
"The question is can he afford to sustain it without crashing the dollar or blowing up oil? Cause ~3.30$ a gallon J6P is going to start getting interested and a 4$ it is like giving the Senate to the (R)."
You are asking exactly the right question.
Note:
"U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders has asked the federal futures market regulator to crack down on speculators whom he blamed for pushing up crude oil and gasoline prices."
Senator asks government to curb oil speculators
| Reuters
Wait until they figure out it is Ben's experiment that is spiking commodities prices.
Sort of reminds me in that scene from "Hunt for Red October" where the the captain (Shaun Connery) is told that the men are fearful and the captain responds that "that may be useful".
Notice what the dollar is doing today?
Symbol Price Change % Change
DXY 79.34 -1.09 -1.36%
Huzzah . . . . END OF MONTH KERMIT-FEST!!!!
"If you're out there, the bet could end within your favour very soon. If it does, congratulations in advance because I will be out of town for the next week. I'm always too earyl"
Damn. Thank you Comrade Terry. I'm sorry I missed him. He certainly seems like a great guy. We'll hope $70 oil can hold off until he gets back
We've seen this movie before. Last August/Sept. It ends as a horror movie for longs.
looks like hank was visiting timmay this afternoon and showed him how to work the buy button
i'm guess no crash until June 30 so that the hedgies can look less-crappy to their pension fund clients. then, it's a rush to the exits.
rich writes;
"We've seen this movie before. Last August/Sept. It ends as a horror movie for longs. "
Longs in everything including commodities?
Who goosed Kermit?
"Small cars won't sell."
@ what $/bbl? Seems there is at threshold where that might change.
Dow up 100 points in the las 20 minutes of trading. what a joke.
and there you have the end of the month mark-up AND some space for GM on monday.
Ciao
MS
Wow, today was the best PPT day EVER! 80 Dow Points in like 2 minutes.
impressive.
oh sh*t, look at the price of oil...
this is really becoming a joke, isn't it?
wow TBT getting killed
ghostfaceinvestah;
"oh sh*t, look at the price of oil... this is really becoming a joke, isn't it? "
Look at the DXY.
Small cars will sell. American small cars won't. Like the Brits before us, we squandered our energy and talent playing world police and pushing paper. Our competitors focused on building better mousetraps. Screw it. Empires wither and die. Ours is no different.
Oh boy, no we can say the S&P was up 5% for the month, instead of 3.5%.
too bad oil was up 29%
who sent a message on T-bonds today?
Now that the government has become the controlling interest in major banks, mortgage companies, insurance companies and auto makers, it is becoming impossible to efficiently allocate capital.
These entities weren't doing a particularly good job of efficiently allocating capital before, were they?
"wow TBT getting killed "
yeah, funny how treasuries and stocks were almost perfectly correlated this week...
Like the Brits before us, we squandered our energy and talent playing world police and pushing paper.
We did them 1 better and built McMansions in Riverside
"Wait until they figure out it is Ben's experiment that is spiking commodities prices."
I'm sure someone will explain it to the slow witted we call congress. Although, it is more like a math proof, than an experiment, I suspect.
These entities weren't doing a particularly good job of efficiently allocating capital before, were they?
========
They were efficiently allocating it to the pockets of WS banksters
"Obama setting up better security for computers"
new law requires you to change your password every 2 weeks
also, you may not use names of pets as your password
Natural gas makes me go hmmm...
Was there ever any doubt that this game ends in a currency crisis? That's pretty much the standard conclusion to CB monetization efforts, right?
WTF is the market rallying on...
more sham reporting of headlines by WSJ cheerleaders.
"Corporate Profits Rebounded in 1st Quarter " Awwww YEH!!!!!
U.S. Firms End Streak Of Quarterly Losses - WSJ.com
Only need to read in to the article a few bits to get the real story.
So is this the most egregious end of month tape painting we've seen yet?
Kleptoworld is very much alive and well.
energyecon,
NatGas is transparent wrt storage and short term demand. Oil less so. That's why oil is a wicked head fake. IMO.
"Was there ever any doubt that this game ends in a currency crisis?"
Well, one hoped that it would end with 19 TBTF, AIG, FRN/FRE in BK, but yeah UDN and long commodities, looking good. With Ben, and Timmy G. F'n with the equities and bonds, those seem somewhat less predictable. Perhaps the end game is the FED owning all toxic assets with their infinite liquidity to hold them while the aforementioned disasters are recapitalized under new management.
ghostfaceinvestah: Wow, today was the best PPT day EVER! 80 Dow Points in like 2 minutes.
Pretty impressive - according to Google finance, volume was anemic at around 185M shares just before that pump action hit. Final volume 363M with the moving average at 348M to start the day. Hey - Dow up three months in a row! Green shootz!
Rich,
No disrespect, to be fair, you started talking about SLW when it was $7 and then went down to $2. However, you agressively started talking about it when it was down there. More power to you!
Dryfly: I've been waiting for this for a LONG time... about three years ago I heard stories of CBOT traders pooling money to buy farms in central Illinois at $6K/acre... city slickers buying farms... dog help us...
Heard that refugee Illinois farmers have been buying land in Southwestern Iowa the past few years. That fits your picture.
My old employer GM facing bankruptcy and the markets close green. I feel like a sailor in the waters off Midway must have felt watching his Yorktown slip beneath the waves, except that the sailors on the other ships weren't cheering that day. A behemoth finally meets destiny but American manufacturing will move on. Just hope the lesson is learned not to let the finance department practice incest in the executive suite for generations.
Money doesn’t grow on trees for most of America. We sit down at our kitchen tables and write out checks to the phone-company, electric company, credit card-company, mortgage-company, and auto finance company every month. We clip coupons and go to the grocery store every week to put food in the mouths of our children. This is what our parents did before us.
bankers selling our childrens futures..for more bailouts? the disgrace. it's horrible. too big to fail needs to fail. we neeed LESS bailouts. If you fail U fail. Tons of informative articles.
I came across this interesting site..check it out Econ & Finance Articles Updated Daily
".Hey, I started talking about SLW here when it was $2.80.
Now $10.40."
True, and you suggested GDX when it was around 25. Pays to listen to Rich.