And who would have thought we would ever miss NINJA loans, just as a small view from here, this time last year there were around 10 SFH foreclosures listed all over 500K, today there is 60+ and and over half of them less than 500K. Hawaii still has a long way to go down, I'm expecting to see full round trips from 200K to 800K back down to 250K (adjusted for 4.2 or so inflation).
why don't you use Equilibrium more? It's a nice dumbdowned word for the masses... Isnt the bottom of a deep trough that stretches for years also "equilibrium"?
Political/economic conversation with her is usually interesting but resembles a Family Circus chore route.
She wants the automakers to die and save Citi since their stock has been low before and will go up again. And nothing was the fault of Bush, a good man used by Cheney.
I didn't even know how to respond. Simply slackjawed
So I just enjoyed the company for what it was worth.
"Gabelli Says Stock Market Finding `Place of Equilibrium'"
not sure what he meant, because equilibrium could (& does) occur at any price as long as a transaction takes place (assuming liquidity is there). He must be talking about fermentation, when spirits just reach the right equilibrium so you could move to the next stage maturing (I guess.)
Judging by CR's excerpt, he knows exactly what he is talking about when he mentioned 6 months of current sales inventory (less than 4 prices rise until market doesn't clear, more than 8 prices fall until market clears)
Generalissimo Francisco Franco has reached equilibrium...
And I am not going to squat on the 'Shadow Backlog' name so whoever wants it.... However if anyone wants to pay me 2006 price for the house, I will throw in the ShadowInventory screen name...
Is a 3% down FHA loan that much different than a NINJA loan? What kind of income testing does the FHA do?
...
3% down, this isn't like putting a watch on layaway...
It's virtually never the case that you arrive at "equilibrium" from a period of overshoot without first going through a period of undershoot. Depending on the level of damping in the system, the undershoot can be nearly as long and as severe as the overshoot was.
To suggest that something has arrived at "equilibrium" while one is still on the downtrend from the overshoot is to imply (a) a heavily damped system, or (b) ignorance. Given the current state of our financial media, you can imagine which one I plump for.
EvilHenryPaulson-
Is a 3% down FHA loan that much different than a NINJA loan? What kind of income testing does the FHA do?
...
3% down, this isn't like putting a watch on layaway...
Actually when I bought my apartment in 97 I got a foreclosure through a FHA related loan, no real money down, maybe like 1%. But they did dig through my finances. The difference was I was very qualified, I just wanted to use the money to fix up the place to make it liveable.
Now I'm kind of kicking myself for paying it off in 10 years, but otherwise the money would have been in the market and I would have lost even more.
@homedad43 - When interest rates spike to 15% and oil producers no longer want devalued $USD, we're all gonna be mighty glad that Bush had the foresight to get ourselves positioned in the ME. Oil is the be all and end all of our very existence. Forget banks, mortgages, green shoots, GM, etc, etc, etc; it is all about oil.
The failed American empire may very well have to close 500+ overseas bases and bring the troops back home, but the last guys ever coming back are in the ME. We'll be there firmly entrenched for the next 40 years or so until the oil runs out.
More than the $USD serving as the world's reserve currency, it's our nukes, carriers, planes & troops that are going to determine all of our fates by ensuring we get the oil we need to keep the lights on - literally. No energy->no electricity->no pumps->no fresh/waste (um, that would be sh!t) water processing, no food storage, no info (Net).
If the SHTF, the Chinese are on the other side of the Himalayas. Their commodities contracts will be worth less than toilet paper.
Kauai_Kahuna,
All I'm saying is that FHA loans are too good to be true, and the government will be eating the loss. I'm not speaking negatively about those who take advantage of a good deal, more power to them.
CATEGORY V: NATIONAL MORTGAGE FRAUD AWARENESS, TRAINING, AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE.
Applications are solicited for national-scope projects with a focus on increasing public awareness and providing outreach and training and technical assistance to respond to the incipient and precipitous increase in crime aggravated by mortgage fraud, as well as the increase in mortgage fraud itself. During 2007, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) reported that suspicious activity reports on mortgage fraud increased by 31 percent,5 and foreclosures increased by 75 percent over 2006.6 Nearly 30 percent of cities surveyed by the U.S. Conference of Mayors reported that home foreclosures were believed to have fueled a rise in crime around abandoned houses.7 The FBI estimates that annual losses from mortgage fraud are between $4 billion and $6 billion.8
Applicants must include in their program narrative (Statement of the Problem, see page 11), crime-related data that supports the problem that the proposed project is intended to address. The Statement of the Problem must explain how the proposed project is poised to address and combat a precipitous increase in the specified crime.
National Mortgage Fraud Awareness (one award for $150,000)
Applications are solicited for a national awareness campaign developed for the general public to disseminate information on recognizing and preventing mortgage-related fraud. The campaign will use a variety of media and will provide information on the primary types of mortgage fraud, red flags which may alert mortgage applicants and others of potential fraud, the harm caused by mortgage fraud, and steps to take to prevent and stop mortgage fraud. Activities conducted under this program will be coordinated with the FBI, U.S. Attorneys, and other federal and national organizations working with mortgage fraud task forces. Applicants are encouraged to leverage public and private partnerships and resources in the development and delivery of the awareness campaign.
National Training and Technical Assistance to Local Law Enforcement and Mortgage Fraud Task Forces and Coalitions (one award for $350,000)
Applications are solicited for a national-scope training and technical assistance initiative that will provide for the development and delivery of a training curriculum and the provision of technical assistance on preventing, investigating, and prosecuting all types of mortgage-related fraud, and maintaining an online resource with training material for the field. Online and onsite training will be designed for crime prevention practitioners, local and state law enforcement officials, ordinance enforcement officials, regulators, prosecutors, and public and private investigators. Ideally, the training will be conducted for interagency task forces and collaborative working groups. Activities conducted under this program will be coordinated with the FBI, U.S. Attorneys, and other federal and national organizations working with mortgage fraud task forces.
I was going to say something along the same lines, but I really don't know both of them. But neither of them strikes me as people who do not do their homework. That does not make them wrong at times.
8 out of 10 members of my town's local optimist club say a recovery will happen in the 3rd or 4th quarter. All is well!!
$200 oil and homes galore to be purchased by the unemployed shmucks! How is this supposed to happen? It seems that the spin will never end on this last great pump and dump.
Kauai_Kahuna
I remembered this article, starbulletin.com | Business | /2006/11/22/
Japanese billionaire renting out 9 of his Hawaiian homes to local families for cheap
Probably remembered about it because he demolished the walls around the house and dumped them in the emptied pool for lower maintenance
Blackhalo -
"(adjusted for 4.2 or so inflation)."
How much did wages go up over that period...?
For some reason that information is not easily found for Hawaii, but honestly it would depend on what field you are in and I would suspect half of that.
I really don't think there is really a middle class here any more and I really think that almost everyone really hit the MEW harder than an alcoholic at a no host bar. But then again, no real data on it for this state.
What was that old curse. May you live in interesting times.
An inflationary hyperdevaluation, my very first one...
LOL - ya I went through rust belt, stagflation, farm crisis, Bush One & now Bush Two... some how I think that was all just foreplay for the big one to come.
Also - drop the first 'O' in Sokol and you have 'KNURD!' in Scand-i-hoovian. Maybe he's just a big drinking bird.
"The curse of 9-11 will haunt Americans for years. The action had a specific economic goal and it was achieved within the decade. Who would have thunk a bunch of towelheads would bring down the US financial system."
What I love is how a lota of sorta business types on this blog have joined the paranoid-lefties in their total distrust of MSM.
Now the curse of 9/11 was now the sad tragedy of the WTC collapses, but the hysteria whipped up by the MSM and Bush adm.
You may remember that immediately after the Pentagon crash Rumsfeld wrote "saddam" on his pad.
You may remember that Bush went to points unknown and Cheney to his secret unknown place. You may or may not believe that they all got together and wrote the 9/11 script. I do.
If you think the endless playing of the WTC crashes played across the channels was not a deliberate act of propaganda, pity you.
The 9/11 attacks were a daring raid well within tribal norms. That it succeeded so well was part luck, part Bush ignoring AQ, part misdesiign by NY/NJ Port Authority architects, part NYC feifdom politics amongst police firemen etc.
Everything else was basically made up.
AQ was inflated do that when it was linked to Saddam we could invade and control the oil
More than the $USD serving as the world's reserve currency, it's our nukes, carriers, planes & troops that are going to determine all of our fates by ensuring we get the oil we need to keep the lights on - literally. No energy->no electricity->no pumps->no fresh/waste (um, that would be sh!t) water processing, no food storage, no info (Net).
With oil based electrical generation accounting for 1.6% of the USA total, you might want to rethink your thesis. EIA file not found error message
EvilHenryPaulson -
Japanese billionaire renting out 9 of his Hawaiian homes to local families for cheap
Probably remembered about it because he demolished the walls around the house and dumped them in the emptied pool for lower maintenance
A lot of that also had to do with spats between him and the local neighbourhood board and that was his way of pissing them off, PR, I think a general concern, and he is in general a pretty strange guy.
>U.S. parts makers Visteon, Metaldyne file for Chapter 11
Failures in the auto and auto parts industries are going to put PBGC under.
I know them both better than I would like. I currently work with refugees from Metaldyne [Tom Petty tune running in my head]...
Also Visteon is to Ford what Delphi is to GM what Mopar is to Chrysler. I can see Mopar & Delphi in hot water due to their 'Zero Tiers' being dead... but wasn't Ford supposed to be okay? Hmmmmmm....
ghostfaceinvestah
Is the MBS coupon rate exploding because the market just wasn't prepared for an onslaught of supply (eg new mortgages and re-financings are up), or is it because of a competition for attention and banks are ordering their mutual fund managers to spend available cash on bank equity offerings
Any talk about the price of oil being so out of balance with our ability to pay to the point of disorder is simply silly.
75% of our oil is used by transportation. Not just our personal vehicles (cars), but trucks. And not just trucks moving imported Chinese goods from coastal ports to various Wal-Mart distribution centers. No, trucks carrying FOOD. Food which was grown with fertilizers and protected with pesticides to get the current yields required to feed everyone. With land that was tilled and food which was harvested with tractors.
Imagine you are the most uniquely unqualified person ever to be sitting as CiC and you are faced with the very real threat of social break-down. Do you actually let the power shut down 'cause you can't afford to pay $200/bbl, or do you tell the Saudis, et al that you are expropriating their natural resources for the developed world's (including EU & JP) very survival?
CS - I don't know, this market can stay insane a lot longer than I can stay solvent. Up roughly 1% so far, and you know the mysterious last 30 minutes of buying.
Kauai_Kahuna,
Thanks for the backstory then. He could have provided more housing for the same cost, or if he was only doing it for generosity he wouldn't have filled the pools with demolition garbage
I currently work with refugees from Metaldyne [Tom Petty tune running in my head]...
First thing I thought of was from Crying of Lot 49:
Bendix guides the warheads in,
Avco builds them nice.
Douglas, North American,
Grumman get their slice.
Martin launches off a pad,
Lockheed from a sub;
We can't get the R&D
On a Piper Cub.
Corvair boosts the satellite
Into orbits round;
Boeing builds the Minuteman,
We stay on the ground,
Yoyodyne, Yoyodyne,
Contracts flee thee yet.
DOD has shafted thee,
Out of spite, I'll bet.
I hope Pynchon hangs around long enough to write something appropriate about our latter days....
Sokal used to run Calenergyu which was a major investor in Indonesia during the waning days of Suharto...he lost a boat to expropriations. He pulls no punches. The MIdamerican utility owns a residential real estate business so his perspective on middle america real estate that wasn't the epicenter of the crisis is worth taking note of...
dryfly
Ford was never okay. Mullaly did plan ahead and secured + drew down completely some lines of credit, every remaining bit of Ford is collateral for some debt, they did manage sell off Range Rover and Jaguar before the crunch, but not Volvo. They had more debt, bigger cash burn, and more cash going into this -- bought them a few more months. The talk of boosting production is lunacy. Yes they have gained some slight market share because they could avoid being first through the government aid process, but there is not a snowball's chance in hell that we revert to a 15mn+ annual sales before the end of this year even with huge discounts. I'm sure you were being sarcastic, but there are a lot of people who are on the Ford bandwagon for the wrong reasons that annoy me.
Also, I can't get over the Fiat deal. Does the company even last 1 year after government funding stops?
ac - That's a scary article Mish has up right now.
Ohhh, you know its bad when they use the phrase "kick to the groin" in any article. So I'm thinking a lot of houses will be falling out of escrow, seeing that more and more here on the local MLS.
All the to be expected brave talk of how we've turned a corner and everything is gonna be a-ok....
Is as if it was ripped out of the pages of Since Yesterday and The Great Crash 1929. The powers that be then had to put on a brave face, which after each time they said the end was near, it turned out to be further away, and they were so discredited as to not be listened to anymore.
It'd be one thing to say that BAC will prosper as one of the most powerful of the 19. Or to suggest that the government will be backing out of its intervention in the economy. But to recommend buying BAC because the government will stop intervening in the economy???
but that doesn't account for the oil used to mine and transport coal and NG, maintain hydro and nuke plants, etc.
You're right. I don't know how much oil is used to mine coal, but transportation costs can be gauged by considering fuel oil production. All fuel oil (diesel) blends account for only 25% of the refiner's output (Natural Gas and Petroleum Navigator Error Page. Knowing the total railroad consumption is a fraction of this is enough to show me that oil probably still plays a relatively minor role in national electrical generation.
Knowing the total railroad consumption is a fraction of this is enough to show me that oil probably still plays a relatively minor role in national electrical generation.
======
I think the relevant questions are: What % of the production cost of a ton of coal is due to oil-based transportation? and what % of electrical generation cost at a coal burning plant is due to cost of the feedstock? This will tell us the impact of quadrupling the price of oil on the price of electricity.
And now you've gone and made me hungry.
Just checked and on Oahu there is 36 SFH homes that have fallen out of escrow, I think I'll check it again in a few days and see how that has increased.
maybe they should talk to one of those chrysler dealer owners who somehow kept profitable thru all this about position....not trying to crowd out dryfly but they pulled off miracle in this market...
dryfly
It's one step below cabinet, the compensation is adequate. Would you be willing to be the public face of the most watched part of the Federal government if the current guy is replaced shortly into the restructuring process. Sorry, I haven't read rivethead
RE: 5.5% kick to groin--Uh huh. Re-fi activity seems to me to be akin to burning shit (Viet Nam vets feel free to provide their own clarification). What's new? Recycle old obligations for less vig?
And now the mortgage pools that have locked but heven't closed are going to take one in the kisser. Pucker up guys, it won't hurt much.
It's one step below cabinet, the compensation is adequate. Would you be willing to be the public face of the most watched part of the Federal government if the current guy is replaced shortly into the restructuring process. Sorry, I haven't read rivethead
Well as Czar my first act would be to make everyone involved in the auto industry READ Rivethead... unless they too did third shifts at the GM Truck & Bus or something 'equivalent'. That would be a start.
I bet half of America has never once stepped into a factory in their whole entire life.
A couple of posters on Mish's board brought up a good point: it's not the interest rate, it's the payment. IOW, house prices must necessarily drop as rates climb to maintain general affordability. Denninger and a few posters @CR have already shown how net housing values decline per incremental rate increases.
We really are reaching an inflection point. As rates climb, property values decline. As property values decline, more people go underwater. As more people bail, bank assets deteriorate further with diminishing cash flows. The more Ben prints to protect rates or buy Treasury/agency debt, the greater the $USD devaluation. The greater the devaluation, the higher critical commodity prices climb eg imported oil.
Re: oil. There are lots of analyses available showing inputs (coal, oil, gas) & uses (transport, electricity), so people can go around and around debating stats, but the bottom line is this: our very existence is dependent on (imported) oil. When push comes to shove, forget niceties like contracts, etc. It's all about feet on the ground.
Anyone following these events know it's going to be bad, but many are seriously underestimating how bad. This is not going to end well - there is going to be a resource war before this is all done & settled.
I worked at a factory in high school and one summer in college.
My dad was a manager there, but I basically did blue collar work.
That said the work was pretty hard (building computers for HP through the oem that I worked for, back when they still got assembled in america).
Anyhow this was in southern california, and gray davis pushed througha bunch of expensive workman's comp and labor bills (such as at the time the 8 hours a day overtime bill).
Factory was moved to mexico to take advantage of nafta etc. Seeing as my dad was a manager (and is an executive now) he was saying that the labor costs per hour didn't really merit moving the factory to mexico it was the ridiculous overtime rules, the union negotiations, and the workmans comp rules that made it too easy to fake injuries and file claims .
The hourly wage at the time was 6.25 an hour (8.75 i beleive now) and they paid $2 an hour in mexico (apparently this is quite high, but they figured they wanted to have happy employees and low turnover... echos of Ford in the early 20th century I guess).
Oh well, maybe , just maybe in the next 10 years some of these factories can come back if we relax the labor rules, or devalue the currency enough. Thats the only way we will ever have a real economy again.
That said, the factory employed somethingl ike 600 people. I was probably in the 10% that was not latin american or mexican american employed those summers. So I guess thats the other problem. Americans do not want these jobs for minimum wage (they are perfectly ok with getting paid 5 times as much to build a car, which is no more complicated to assemble than say an LCD monitor or tv though)
"UAW chief says GM will make subcompacts in US, ending plans to import them from China " - okay - that qualifies as damn good news!! Seriously. Our economy would be sooooo much better if we stopped importing finished autos from overseas. A whole lot better.
do realize that there are two levels at play here. The instinctive, animal level, where we
want to punish those who have done us wrong, while those who have done us wrong have done it
following their animal desires. There is also the rational level, of which to I am
referring to above. Realistically, I know the beast in us will take over and this will end
like it did in France in the 1790's. I will, however, not be the one holding the sword.
I came across this interesting site..check it out Econ & Finance
And if you don't believe things are getting better, wait until you see the "green shoots"!
2) The victim is placed on a rack horizontally above quickly-growing bamboo shoots, which are watered. The shoots pierce the victim, resulting in a slow and painful death. From urban dictionary
Guy's obviously a traitor. Or a Communist.
Arrest him.
Why does he hate America?
porked on last thread:
GM to announce 14 factory closures on Monday
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found...
============
This is a sign of recovery right?
good thing all those out of work will still be able to help draw down that new and existing home inventory
Now I know how it feels to get pigged.
no job = no inventory absorption.
And who would have thought we would ever miss NINJA loans, just as a small view from here, this time last year there were around 10 SFH foreclosures listed all over 500K, today there is 60+ and and over half of them less than 500K. Hawaii still has a long way to go down, I'm expecting to see full round trips from 200K to 800K back down to 250K (adjusted for 4.2 or so inflation).
The rampage in emerging market stocks and commodities says otherwise.
Either that, or easy money policies and asset price manipulation have rendered financial assets economically useless.
The Talking Point word for the day is Equilibrium....
Sam Zell Says U.S. Housing Market Nearing Equilibrium'
Gabelli Says Stock Market FindingPlace of Equilibrium'
Bloomberg.com
Cr,
why don't you use Equilibrium more? It's a nice dumbdowned word for the masses... Isnt the bottom of a deep trough that stretches for years also "equilibrium"?
The entire FIRE economy flies in the face of the concept of equilibrium
Yowza.
Got to have lunch with my mother.
Political/economic conversation with her is usually interesting but resembles a Family Circus chore route.
She wants the automakers to die and save Citi since their stock has been low before and will go up again. And nothing was the fault of Bush, a good man used by Cheney.
I didn't even know how to respond. Simply slackjawed
So I just enjoyed the company for what it was worth.
how was the food?
Equilibrium = Is that where there is no one buying and equals out with the no one lending?
I think the GM plant closure announcement is the "other shoe" that I've been waiting for (or at least the "next shoe")
Mortgage rate jumped 40bp in two days; gov just might learn, that price floors do not work.
Whoever bets on a fast RE rebound, might be for a good surprise if rate climbs above 6%.
"And who would have thought we would ever miss NINJA loans"
Don't worry, they will be coming back. Soon, is my guess.
BTW, however took my idea to short the mortgage basis - bastard, beat me to it.
We are all NINJA now
[tanta vive!]
"Gabelli Says Stock Market Finding `Place of Equilibrium'"
not sure what he meant, because equilibrium could (& does) occur at any price as long as a transaction takes place (assuming liquidity is there). He must be talking about fermentation, when spirits just reach the right equilibrium so you could move to the next stage maturing (I guess.)
Judging by CR's excerpt, he knows exactly what he is talking about when he mentioned 6 months of current sales inventory (less than 4 prices rise until market doesn't clear, more than 8 prices fall until market clears)
Generalissimo Francisco Franco has reached equilibrium...
And I am not going to squat on the 'Shadow Backlog' name so whoever wants it.... However if anyone wants to pay me 2006 price for the house, I will throw in the ShadowInventory screen name...
a good man used by Cheney
I might have to save that one to use again... many possible situations. You might advise her to copywrite that one fast. It could be franchisable.
Is a 3% down FHA loan that much different than a NINJA loan? What kind of income testing does the FHA do?
...
3% down, this isn't like putting a watch on layaway...
ac (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/28/2009 - 1:50 pm
The rampage in emerging market stocks and commodities says otherwise.
Either that, or easy money policies and asset price manipulation have rendered financial assets economically useless.
Reflexivity takes over...
Life flies in the face of equilibrium. The FIRE economy, of course, is its exact opposite.
Saudia Arabia: $200 Oil In 2 Years
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/siliconalley/green-tech/saudia_arabia_200_oil_in_2_years_2009_5.html
ac, i'll go with the latter explanation
When you hear "green shoots" think of "Mean Joe" Green with a smoking gun in his hand. It all makes sense.
Good to see Sokol has found the blogosphere... wonder what his 'yes men' had been telling he and Warren...
@FD - Putting on my engineer's hat here.
It's virtually never the case that you arrive at "equilibrium" from a period of overshoot without first going through a period of undershoot. Depending on the level of damping in the system, the undershoot can be nearly as long and as severe as the overshoot was.
To suggest that something has arrived at "equilibrium" while one is still on the downtrend from the overshoot is to imply (a) a heavily damped system, or (b) ignorance. Given the current state of our financial media, you can imagine which one I plump for.
Saudia Arabia: $200 Oil In 2 Years
=====
didn't they see what happened when it got to $150?
Saudia Arabia: $200 Oil In 2 Years
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/siliconalley/green-tech/saudia_arabi...
That probably means $20 corn and $50 ribeyes in 2 years also.
didn't they see what happened when it got to $150?
Ya, well that tells you what they think is going to happen to the value of ol bucky.
Good thing the guy he wants to succeed is massively short index puts.... D'OH!
"That probably means $20 corn and $50 ribeyes in 2 years also. "
I think I need a raise.
Ya, well that tells you what they think is going to happen to the value of ol bucky.
======
good point, says more about quantity of printing than supply/demand of oil
EvilHenryPaulson-
Is a 3% down FHA loan that much different than a NINJA loan? What kind of income testing does the FHA do?
...
3% down, this isn't like putting a watch on layaway...
Actually when I bought my apartment in 97 I got a foreclosure through a FHA related loan, no real money down, maybe like 1%. But they did dig through my finances. The difference was I was very qualified, I just wanted to use the money to fix up the place to make it liveable.
Now I'm kind of kicking myself for paying it off in 10 years, but otherwise the money would have been in the market and I would have lost even more.
@homedad43 - When interest rates spike to 15% and oil producers no longer want devalued $USD, we're all gonna be mighty glad that Bush had the foresight to get ourselves positioned in the ME. Oil is the be all and end all of our very existence. Forget banks, mortgages, green shoots, GM, etc, etc, etc; it is all about oil.
The failed American empire may very well have to close 500+ overseas bases and bring the troops back home, but the last guys ever coming back are in the ME. We'll be there firmly entrenched for the next 40 years or so until the oil runs out.
More than the $USD serving as the world's reserve currency, it's our nukes, carriers, planes & troops that are going to determine all of our fates by ensuring we get the oil we need to keep the lights on - literally. No energy->no electricity->no pumps->no fresh/waste (um, that would be sh!t) water processing, no food storage, no info (Net).
If the SHTF, the Chinese are on the other side of the Himalayas. Their commodities contracts will be worth less than toilet paper.
Fleetwood RV bk liquidation - nobody wants the motorhome plant in Riverside CA - CA biz has the death head painted on...
Other Fleetwood operations to be sold | Business | PE.com | Southern California News | News for Inland Southern California
The Falcon (Sokol) is no snowman...
Kauai_Kahuna,
All I'm saying is that FHA loans are too good to be true, and the government will be eating the loss. I'm not speaking negatively about those who take advantage of a good deal, more power to them.
Off topic, but interesting grant solicitation:
CATEGORY V: NATIONAL MORTGAGE FRAUD AWARENESS, TRAINING, AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE.
Applications are solicited for national-scope projects with a focus on increasing public awareness and providing outreach and training and technical assistance to respond to the incipient and precipitous increase in crime aggravated by mortgage fraud, as well as the increase in mortgage fraud itself. During 2007, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) reported that suspicious activity reports on mortgage fraud increased by 31 percent,5 and foreclosures increased by 75 percent over 2006.6 Nearly 30 percent of cities surveyed by the U.S. Conference of Mayors reported that home foreclosures were believed to have fueled a rise in crime around abandoned houses.7 The FBI estimates that annual losses from mortgage fraud are between $4 billion and $6 billion.8
Applicants must include in their program narrative (Statement of the Problem, see page 11), crime-related data that supports the problem that the proposed project is intended to address. The Statement of the Problem must explain how the proposed project is poised to address and combat a precipitous increase in the specified crime.
Applications are solicited for a national awareness campaign developed for the general public to disseminate information on recognizing and preventing mortgage-related fraud. The campaign will use a variety of media and will provide information on the primary types of mortgage fraud, red flags which may alert mortgage applicants and others of potential fraud, the harm caused by mortgage fraud, and steps to take to prevent and stop mortgage fraud. Activities conducted under this program will be coordinated with the FBI, U.S. Attorneys, and other federal and national organizations working with mortgage fraud task forces. Applicants are encouraged to leverage public and private partnerships and resources in the development and delivery of the awareness campaign.
Applications are solicited for a national-scope training and technical assistance initiative that will provide for the development and delivery of a training curriculum and the provision of technical assistance on preventing, investigating, and prosecuting all types of mortgage-related fraud, and maintaining an online resource with training material for the field. Online and onsite training will be designed for crime prevention practitioners, local and state law enforcement officials, ordinance enforcement officials, regulators, prosecutors, and public and private investigators. Ideally, the training will be conducted for interagency task forces and collaborative working groups. Activities conducted under this program will be coordinated with the FBI, U.S. Attorneys, and other federal and national organizations working with mortgage fraud task forces.
Hoocoodanode.
kermit hasn't even been able to make it to 8450 today so far
Snerf writes: "When interest rates spike to 15%..."
I think we may all be looking back and wishing for 15%.
Juvenal Delinquent -
The Falcon (Sokol) is no snowman...
I was going to say something along the same lines, but I really don't know both of them. But neither of them strikes me as people who do not do their homework. That does not make them wrong at times.
also from the same article:
"If anything, the glut of housing supply could grow larger as a new wave of foreclosures and pending sales breaks on the market."
So 10 to 12 months, double (20-24) and then add some more for the next wave. Wow.
8 out of 10 members of my town's local optimist club say a recovery will happen in the 3rd or 4th quarter. All is well!!
$200 oil and homes galore to be purchased by the unemployed shmucks! How is this supposed to happen? It seems that the spin will never end on this last great pump and dump.
EHP - Really hoping to take advantage of one again in two years or so.
Due to a tragic communication error in DC last week, the PPT is now trading using the wrong charts and data feeds.
warren should lock this guy in broom closet at a prticipating DQ. wasn't warren telling the sheepel to buy?
Sokol means falcon in Czech.
lock this guy in broom closet at a prticipating DQ - LOL GOOD ONE!!!
What kind of income testing does the FHA do?
Pretty thorough. They may allow high DTI but they've traditionally been pretty careful about what they'll accept as income.
"(adjusted for 4.2 or so inflation)."
How much did wages go up over that period...?
An inflationary hyperdevaluation, my very first one...
sokol: amazingly frank words from someone whose interests are served more by happy-talk at all costs
U.S. parts makers Visteon, Metaldyne file for Chapter 11
U.S. parts makers Visteon, Metaldyne file for Chapter 11
| Reuters
And so it begins.
Kauai_Kahuna
I remembered this article, starbulletin.com | Business | /2006/11/22/
Japanese billionaire renting out 9 of his Hawaiian homes to local families for cheap
Probably remembered about it because he demolished the walls around the house and dumped them in the emptied pool for lower maintenance
Re: $200 oil ---- In 2007 figures:
US oil production per day: 8,457,000 barrels
Production > Oil statistics - countries compared - NationMaster
US oil consumption per day: 20,680,000 barrels
Oil consumption (most recent) by country
Even tho we're the 3rd largest producer country of oil, we're the #1 consumer of oil.
If we could get those figures more equal, we'd be breathing easier...
Sooner or later somebody high up enough can talk truth to power, even if power isn't interested in the truth.
Blackhalo -
"(adjusted for 4.2 or so inflation)."
How much did wages go up over that period...?
For some reason that information is not easily found for Hawaii, but honestly it would depend on what field you are in and I would suspect half of that.
I really don't think there is really a middle class here any more and I really think that almost everyone really hit the MEW harder than an alcoholic at a no host bar. But then again, no real data on it for this state.
What was that old curse. May you live in interesting times.
Failures in the auto and auto parts industries are going to put PBGC under.
If we could get those figures more equal, we'd be breathing easier...
========
and if I cut out my liver, heart, and lungs, i'm sure I'd be able to run faster
I am praying for the rust belt.
An inflationary hyperdevaluation, my very first one...
LOL - ya I went through rust belt, stagflation, farm crisis, Bush One & now Bush Two... some how I think that was all just foreplay for the big one to come.
Also - drop the first 'O' in Sokol and you have 'KNURD!' in Scand-i-hoovian. Maybe he's just a big drinking bird.
"The curse of 9-11 will haunt Americans for years. The action had a specific economic goal and it was achieved within the decade. Who would have thunk a bunch of towelheads would bring down the US financial system."
What I love is how a lota of sorta business types on this blog have joined the paranoid-lefties in their total distrust of MSM.
Now the curse of 9/11 was now the sad tragedy of the WTC collapses, but the hysteria whipped up by the MSM and Bush adm.
You may remember that immediately after the Pentagon crash Rumsfeld wrote "saddam" on his pad.
You may remember that Bush went to points unknown and Cheney to his secret unknown place. You may or may not believe that they all got together and wrote the 9/11 script. I do.
If you think the endless playing of the WTC crashes played across the channels was not a deliberate act of propaganda, pity you.
The 9/11 attacks were a daring raid well within tribal norms. That it succeeded so well was part luck, part Bush ignoring AQ, part misdesiign by NY/NJ Port Authority architects, part NYC feifdom politics amongst police firemen etc.
Everything else was basically made up.
AQ was inflated do that when it was linked to Saddam we could invade and control the oil
Mook (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/28/2009 - 3:00 pm reply Ignore user @FD - Putting on my engineer's hat here.
Takes one to know one....
More than the $USD serving as the world's reserve currency, it's our nukes, carriers, planes & troops that are going to determine all of our fates by ensuring we get the oil we need to keep the lights on - literally. No energy->no electricity->no pumps->no fresh/waste (um, that would be sh!t) water processing, no food storage, no info (Net).
With oil based electrical generation accounting for 1.6% of the USA total, you might want to rethink your thesis.
EIA file not found error message
With oil based electrical generation accounting for 1.6% of the USA total, you might want to rethink your thesis.
but that doesn't account for the oil used to mine and transport coal and NG, maintain hydro and nuke plants, etc.
EvilHenryPaulson -
Japanese billionaire renting out 9 of his Hawaiian homes to local families for cheap
Probably remembered about it because he demolished the walls around the house and dumped them in the emptied pool for lower maintenance
A lot of that also had to do with spats between him and the local neighbourhood board and that was his way of pissing them off, PR, I think a general concern, and he is in general a pretty strange guy.
>U.S. parts makers Visteon, Metaldyne file for Chapter 11
Failures in the auto and auto parts industries are going to put PBGC under.
I know them both better than I would like. I currently work with refugees from Metaldyne [Tom Petty tune running in my head]...
Also Visteon is to Ford what Delphi is to GM what Mopar is to Chrysler. I can see Mopar & Delphi in hot water due to their 'Zero Tiers' being dead... but wasn't Ford supposed to be okay? Hmmmmmm....
ghostfaceinvestah
Is the MBS coupon rate exploding because the market just wasn't prepared for an onslaught of supply (eg new mortgages and re-financings are up), or is it because of a competition for attention and banks are ordering their mutual fund managers to spend available cash on bank equity offerings
Anybody see that hottie North Korean newsreader on the telly yesterday?
She thrashed the peace between the North and South like it was one of those cheap wooden chopsticks that come with a take-out, nuclear.
Any talk about the price of oil being so out of balance with our ability to pay to the point of disorder is simply silly.
75% of our oil is used by transportation. Not just our personal vehicles (cars), but trucks. And not just trucks moving imported Chinese goods from coastal ports to various Wal-Mart distribution centers. No, trucks carrying FOOD. Food which was grown with fertilizers and protected with pesticides to get the current yields required to feed everyone. With land that was tilled and food which was harvested with tractors.
Imagine you are the most uniquely unqualified person ever to be sitting as CiC and you are faced with the very real threat of social break-down. Do you actually let the power shut down 'cause you can't afford to pay $200/bbl, or do you tell the Saudis, et al that you are expropriating their natural resources for the developed world's (including EU & JP) very survival?
i'm guessing the multi-month green-shoots rally is just about done
foolonthehill -
Nah, it was just W finishing old business for his daddy.
"" GM to leave the exchange market for 6 to 18 month's: ""
Well there goes half of the new york stock exchange volume.
Should be interesting where Dell stands after the Ding Ding Ding.
CS - I don't know, this market can stay insane a lot longer than I can stay solvent. Up roughly 1% so far, and you know the mysterious last 30 minutes of buying.
One of the vendors I deal with is wholly owned by Berkshire and deliver by own truck. My stop is about halfway on the route.
How have the loads been running?
Let's just say I need to ask the driver if he's interested in playing raquetball.
Kauai_Kahuna,
Thanks for the backstory then. He could have provided more housing for the same cost, or if he was only doing it for generosity he wouldn't have filled the pools with demolition garbage
If you wanted an America that pretty much stayed put and didn't wander much, $10 a gallon gas would keep most people going nowhere fast.
That's bullish for consumer spending, right?
Imagine you are the most uniquely unqualified person ever to be sitting as CiC
Bush is back in the WH?
I heard OpenTable is going to be added to the Dow to replace GM
Should be interesting where Dell stands after the Ding Ding Ding.
That's a scary article Mish has up right now.
I currently work with refugees from Metaldyne [Tom Petty tune running in my head]...
First thing I thought of was from Crying of Lot 49:
Bendix guides the warheads in,
Avco builds them nice.
Douglas, North American,
Grumman get their slice.
Martin launches off a pad,
Lockheed from a sub;
We can't get the R&D
On a Piper Cub.
Corvair boosts the satellite
Into orbits round;
Boeing builds the Minuteman,
We stay on the ground,
Yoyodyne, Yoyodyne,
Contracts flee thee yet.
DOD has shafted thee,
Out of spite, I'll bet.
I hope Pynchon hangs around long enough to write something appropriate about our latter days....
Sokal used to run Calenergyu which was a major investor in Indonesia during the waning days of Suharto...he lost a boat to expropriations. He pulls no punches. The MIdamerican utility owns a residential real estate business so his perspective on middle america real estate that wasn't the epicenter of the crisis is worth taking note of...
May Day, Mayday. S.O.S.*
*Sell our Securities
Still weeping for my puts here. GLD and USO helping to deaden the pain though.
Had to drop the price on my house by ~10%.... still getting few showing, no offers.
Wow ac can you say " wake up call, party of 5 " your table is ready, " wake up call, party of 5 " your table is ready!
I think he's talking about Zachary Taylor.
The BDI is on a good run. Green shoots elsewhere in the world.
Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) & Freight Rates
dryfly
Ford was never okay. Mullaly did plan ahead and secured + drew down completely some lines of credit, every remaining bit of Ford is collateral for some debt, they did manage sell off Range Rover and Jaguar before the crunch, but not Volvo. They had more debt, bigger cash burn, and more cash going into this -- bought them a few more months. The talk of boosting production is lunacy. Yes they have gained some slight market share because they could avoid being first through the government aid process, but there is not a snowball's chance in hell that we revert to a 15mn+ annual sales before the end of this year even with huge discounts. I'm sure you were being sarcastic, but there are a lot of people who are on the Ford bandwagon for the wrong reasons that annoy me.
Also, I can't get over the Fiat deal. Does the company even last 1 year after government funding stops?
ac - That's a scary article Mish has up right now.
Ohhh, you know its bad when they use the phrase "kick to the groin" in any article. So I'm thinking a lot of houses will be falling out of escrow, seeing that more and more here on the local MLS.
the interview on Mish brings up a very good point: going to 5.5% kills a lot of refis because many people looking to refi are already at that level
All the to be expected brave talk of how we've turned a corner and everything is gonna be a-ok....
Is as if it was ripped out of the pages of Since Yesterday and The Great Crash 1929. The powers that be then had to put on a brave face, which after each time they said the end was near, it turned out to be further away, and they were so discredited as to not be listened to anymore.
That's the next step...
must.....resist.....buying.....more......SRS.........
dryfly
Ford was never okay
I know EHP... I was just throwing out some red meat. Auto as we now know it is dead worldwide.
Yoyodyne.
snigger.
Someone went off script.
dryfly
Would you be interested in the position of auto czar?
Oil almost kissed $65, today...
each time they said the end was near, it turned out to be further away, and they were so discredited as to not be listened to anymore.
You mean like this guy?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30985844/site/14081545?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo
It'd be one thing to say that BAC will prosper as one of the most powerful of the 19. Or to suggest that the government will be backing out of its intervention in the economy. But to recommend buying BAC because the government will stop intervening in the economy???
dryfly (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/28/2009 - 12:47 pm
Auto as we now know it is dead worldwide.
Body by Rob Dawg, chassis by Dryfly and propulsion by Yoyodyne.
Oberthrusters to maximum!
EHP,
Thinking too small, let's shoot for industrial policy czar...
Interesting news day from Autos today:
UAW chief says GM will make subcompacts in US, ending plans to import them from China
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
but that doesn't account for the oil used to mine and transport coal and NG, maintain hydro and nuke plants, etc.
You're right. I don't know how much oil is used to mine coal, but transportation costs can be gauged by considering fuel oil production. All fuel oil (diesel) blends account for only 25% of the refiner's output (Natural Gas and Petroleum Navigator Error Page. Knowing the total railroad consumption is a fraction of this is enough to show me that oil probably still plays a relatively minor role in national electrical generation.
Would you be interested in the position of auto czar?
Does it come with the OLD UAW benefit package? If so then 'Hell Yes!!'... If not - I'll pass thank you very much.
Edit: Have you ever read 'Rivethead'? If not a MUST read... a 'Catcher In The Rye' for metal bangers.
"I might have to save that one to use again... many possible situations. You might advise her to copywrite that one fast. It could be franchisable."
Sorry, it's a theme that's been in the public domain for about five thousand years.
"Pharaoh is a good man, but his vizier keeps the crocodiles happy."
Even Bloomberg is ridiculing Timmay!
Zero Hedge: Even Bloomberg Openly Ridiculing Tim Geithner Now
YouTube - Buckaroo Banzai - Lord Whorfin
"If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers."
(proverbs for paranoids,T.P.)
Knowing the total railroad consumption is a fraction of this is enough to show me that oil probably still plays a relatively minor role in national electrical generation.
======
I think the relevant questions are: What % of the production cost of a ton of coal is due to oil-based transportation? and what % of electrical generation cost at a coal burning plant is due to cost of the feedstock? This will tell us the impact of quadrupling the price of oil on the price of electricity.
dryfly - red meat.
And now you've gone and made me hungry.
Just checked and on Oahu there is 36 SFH homes that have fallen out of escrow, I think I'll check it again in a few days and see how that has increased.
Auto Czar,
maybe they should talk to one of those chrysler dealer owners who somehow kept profitable thru all this about position....not trying to crowd out dryfly but they pulled off miracle in this market...
(Lassie is furiously digging a hole)
Timmay: Digging a whole to China? Indebted deep?
Body by Rob Dawg, chassis by Dryfly and propulsion by Yoyodyne.
Oberthrusters to maximum!
I completely forgot that it was Yoyodyne Propulsion in Buckaroo Banzai.
Where the future begins tomorrow.
yes you must. the inverse ETFs are borderline criminal (even saw a note from UBS the other day detailing the shadiness)
dryfly
It's one step below cabinet, the compensation is adequate. Would you be willing to be the public face of the most watched part of the Federal government if the current guy is replaced shortly into the restructuring process. Sorry, I haven't read rivethead
Talking about Cheney. Is it my imagination or does he look more and more like Dr. Strangelove?
RE: 5.5% kick to groin--Uh huh. Re-fi activity seems to me to be akin to burning shit (Viet Nam vets feel free to provide their own clarification). What's new? Recycle old obligations for less vig?
And now the mortgage pools that have locked but heven't closed are going to take one in the kisser. Pucker up guys, it won't hurt much.
In Contemptkin Village, eastern fronts money back to itself
[Saudia Arabia: $200 Oil In 2 Years]
Why waste time waiting. Let's just cut to the chase and run the price up right now.
"Talking about Cheney. Is it my imagination or does he look more and more like Dr. Strangelove? "
No, he is the other Jeffrey Lebowski.
It's one step below cabinet, the compensation is adequate. Would you be willing to be the public face of the most watched part of the Federal government if the current guy is replaced shortly into the restructuring process. Sorry, I haven't read rivethead
Well as Czar my first act would be to make everyone involved in the auto industry READ Rivethead... unless they too did third shifts at the GM Truck & Bus or something 'equivalent'. That would be a start.
I bet half of America has never once stepped into a factory in their whole entire life.
dryfly
Thanks, I take it you are the manufacturing supply chain as one man
A couple of posters on Mish's board brought up a good point: it's not the interest rate, it's the payment. IOW, house prices must necessarily drop as rates climb to maintain general affordability. Denninger and a few posters @CR have already shown how net housing values decline per incremental rate increases.
We really are reaching an inflection point. As rates climb, property values decline. As property values decline, more people go underwater. As more people bail, bank assets deteriorate further with diminishing cash flows. The more Ben prints to protect rates or buy Treasury/agency debt, the greater the $USD devaluation. The greater the devaluation, the higher critical commodity prices climb eg imported oil.
Re: oil. There are lots of analyses available showing inputs (coal, oil, gas) & uses (transport, electricity), so people can go around and around debating stats, but the bottom line is this: our very existence is dependent on (imported) oil. When push comes to shove, forget niceties like contracts, etc. It's all about feet on the ground.
Anyone following these events know it's going to be bad, but many are seriously underestimating how bad. This is not going to end well - there is going to be a resource war before this is all done & settled.
When did Buffett go LONGGGGGG on Round Up?.....
"I bet half of America has never once stepped into a factory in their whole entire life."
How about the Belorus Tractor factory in Minsk?
Why a "balance" by mid-2011?
I'd say there's a chance there could be an "imbalance" in housing inventories for a decade or more.
I worked at a factory in high school and one summer in college.
My dad was a manager there, but I basically did blue collar work.
That said the work was pretty hard (building computers for HP through the oem that I worked for, back when they still got assembled in america).
Anyhow this was in southern california, and gray davis pushed througha bunch of expensive workman's comp and labor bills (such as at the time the 8 hours a day overtime bill).
Factory was moved to mexico to take advantage of nafta etc. Seeing as my dad was a manager (and is an executive now) he was saying that the labor costs per hour didn't really merit moving the factory to mexico it was the ridiculous overtime rules, the union negotiations, and the workmans comp rules that made it too easy to fake injuries and file claims .
The hourly wage at the time was 6.25 an hour (8.75 i beleive now) and they paid $2 an hour in mexico (apparently this is quite high, but they figured they wanted to have happy employees and low turnover... echos of Ford in the early 20th century I guess).
Oh well, maybe , just maybe in the next 10 years some of these factories can come back if we relax the labor rules, or devalue the currency enough. Thats the only way we will ever have a real economy again.
That said, the factory employed somethingl ike 600 people. I was probably in the 10% that was not latin american or mexican american employed those summers. So I guess thats the other problem. Americans do not want these jobs for minimum wage (they are perfectly ok with getting paid 5 times as much to build a car, which is no more complicated to assemble than say an LCD monitor or tv though)
"UAW chief says GM will make subcompacts in US, ending plans to import them from China " - okay - that qualifies as damn good news!! Seriously. Our economy would be sooooo much better if we stopped importing finished autos from overseas. A whole lot better.
do realize that there are two levels at play here. The instinctive, animal level, where we
want to punish those who have done us wrong, while those who have done us wrong have done it
following their animal desires. There is also the rational level, of which to I am
referring to above. Realistically, I know the beast in us will take over and this will end
like it did in France in the 1790's. I will, however, not be the one holding the sword.
I came across this interesting site..check it out Econ & Finance
Articles Updated Daily
And if you don't believe things are getting better, wait until you see the "green shoots"!
2) The victim is placed on a rack horizontally above quickly-growing bamboo shoots, which are watered. The shoots pierce the victim, resulting in a slow and painful death.
From urban dictionary