What's the difference between Benjamins game of hyperinflation and previous efforts historically?
With paper currency, every citizen of every country was directly effected, as the powers that be recklessly printed more and more, but we are doing it all digitally, and the printing is done via mouse click only to a select group.
The hoi ploy (and quite a few of you) have no idea what's going on...
There is still time to get rid of all dollar-denominated assets before the clock strikes midnight for this $inderella Story.
I'm not sure why based on the service-sector heavy economy plus the comparatively high unemployment and continued claims figures we'll "recover"...although I will say that 1984 is looking where we are headed.
[the] initial claims was 623,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 636,000.
I'm curious. Were the previous weeks numbers revised up, or down? Yes I know google can be my friend, I'm just wondering out loud if someone's playing with the numbers a little.
Be very careful lest you say something that will get you on somebody's ignore list. Of course, I suspect that when folks like that hit the overnight thread the following morning, they find a total of four comments.
What becomes of all the college and high school students who graduate in a few weeks? If they can't find jobs what stats do they show up on? I'm guessing they can't claim unemployment insureance having never paid in? How will we know the extent of their unemployment compared to past years?
Juvenal Delinquent: If you're going to use words like hoi polloi, please use them correctly including spelling. Especially when you take the liberty of re-posting stuff as a course of telling 'us' how much we don't know.
From an AP piece on the jobless claims: Auto-related layoffs elevated the claims numbers in recent weeks, but a Labor Department analyst said no states cited job cuts in that sector this week. Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
And the question regards the durables - is the 1.9% increase from the dramatically revised lower number? If so, the increase is in line with estimates from the initial value... But the government is revising down its estimate for new orders in March to show a drop of 2.1 percent, a much bigger fall than the 0.8 percent decline previously reported. Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
For the college grads look for grad school, employer of last resort. And that means more debt-load, but the upshot is they will be graduating into a high-inflation environment in 2-4 more years--bad news is I doubt the economy will have reorganized itself around more productive endeavors--that is more productive then hocking stuff and inventing financial hold-to-maturity time-bombs--therefore few high quality jobs.
It's the high school grads without skills that don't matriculate into college that will be noteworthy, and therefore I will be providing them with an ideology they can believe in, nice brown uniforms so they look sharp and feel good about themselves, emphasizing less cerebral activities like hiking and camping and shooting people...
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/28/2009 - 9:06 am reply Ignore user The ploy against the polloi continues, and yet they suspect nothing...
@homedad
Ignore lists are good for suppressing people who want to resort to name-calling, insults, and ad hominem attacks. Fortunately, there have only been three posters to date who were too irritating to resist squelching them.
Moving on, recent conversations with CEOs of SMBs have turned from ones of "sales are turning the corner" to "oh my god, my credit facility just got yanked!". The unemployment story isn't over.
Is there sandbagging going on with the pump job in the yen? It has weakened against the dollar from a low yesterday of around 94.7 to currently about 97.2...
After the meetings finished, Daniel Estulin reported that, “One of Bilderberg’s primary concerns according to Estulin is the danger that their zeal to reshape the world by engineering chaos in order to implement their long term agenda could cause the situation to spiral out of control and eventually lead to a scenario where Bilderberg and the global elite in general are overwhelmed by events and end up losing their control over the planet.”[3]
Bilderberg investigative reporter Daniel Estulin reportedly received from his inside sources a 73-page Bilderberg Group meeting wrap-up for participants, which revealed that there were some serious disagreements among the participants. “
Estulin reported, “that some leading European bankers faced with the specter of their own financial mortality are extremely concerned, calling this high wire act "unsustainable," and saying that US budget and trade deficits could result in the demise of the dollar.”
One Bilderberger said that, “the banks themselves don't know the answer to when (the bottom will be hit).” Everyone appeared to agree, “that the level of capital needed for the American banks may be considerably higher than the US government suggested through their recent stress tests.” Further, “someone from the IMF pointed out that its own study on historical recessions suggests that the US is only a third of the way through this current one; therefore economies expecting to recover with resurgence in demand from the US will have a long wait.” One attendee stated that, “Equity losses in 2008 were worse than those of 1929,” and that, “The next phase of the economic decline will also be worse than the '30s, mostly because the US economy carries about $20 trillion of excess debt. Until that debt is eliminated, the idea of a healthy boom is a mirage.”[9]
"I'm curious. Were the previous weeks numbers revised up, or down? Yes I know google can be my friend, I'm just wondering out loud if someone's playing with the numbers a little."
Volker the Viking - Thank you on the hoi polloi response to juvenile delinquint. Please, if you're going to use a term like hol polloi, spell it correctly or use another term like the "great unwashed" or "the masses".
Spaulding Smails to Danny Noonan in Caddyshack: "Ahoy polloi"! One of the best uses of the term in history!
BH, the first option was my plan a few years ago. It worked great and helped increase my salary when I did find a job.
As for the unemployment numbers, I'm puzzled why economists and the media are saying this is a sign that the recession/depression is bottoming out. The weekly numbers are within about 4% of the highest numbers lately, which does not signify any significant change. The graph shows plenty of >=4% fluctuations where the trend reversed afterward. Also, with GM on the verge of bankruptcy, it is very foolish for all these economists and the media to say that the numbers are bottoming out. Are these folks on antidepressants or is the Obama administration telling them to talk happy talk?
Expanding mommy's home garden and recycling cans will be the most popular activities for college grads since there will be very few jobs available. Cursing loudly all previous generations for their sins will be their favorite hobby.
Actually "...just before Thanksgiving, Obama pledged to "create or preserve" 2.5 million jobs, a figure he increased to 3 million less than a month later..."
So if he just "preserves" 3 million jobs he hasn't broken a pledge. Now, how you measure that is maybe another thing. How we would know that people who would have been laid off were in fact not laid off is something I will leave to the wizards at the BLS.
Durable Goods orders up 1.9% in April. Using this tepid number on top of a revised downward number to drive the markets up again! Yet another string to pull.
Unemployment numbers better than forecast. Please! What about the millions of people who's hours have been cut or are now "not actively looking for employment" and are not tracked by the labor department?
What happened to the long bond ? Ben squander more capital trying to defend the fort from the vigilantes, giving them a much needed chance to get out ?
Well the good news is that treasury yields are coming in a bit, the bad news is that oil is rallying into the decline in yields - almost back up to $64.
EDIT: Oil just quantitatively eased its way over $64/bbl.
This is noteworthy. We are Euro-ing where we will have a very over-educated under-employed class of people but without the nation-state ammenities of health-care, wellfare, and other subsidies to keep the masses from claiming a competing idealogy.
And since this is now an "image war" on the economy, economists, media, administration officials are trying to manage expectations, perceptions--however at some point, just like the real economy, the reality will smack 20-30% of the populace in the face with raw unemployment.
My sister-in-law has been laid off for 4 months now, the last severance check was cashed 2 weeks ago, and she's going on unempolloiment.
She worked for one of the biggest law firms in her state and was pulling down $80k a year. She's been on the prowl (a cougar, but of course) for a new job and is realistic about earning less-much less, and has gone to boucoup interviews, where she has been repeatedly told "she's too qualified".
homedad43 (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 5/28/2009 - 8:57 am
Just writing a general answer, I know you're being ironical.
Byz:
Be very careful lest you say something that will get you on somebody's ignore list.
Yeah. I ignore a few people myself, I can't complain. You're always welcome to turn off my yammering. If people want real advice that's to their specifications and on a topic they precisely choose, they should wave money. Not like I'm trying to hang out a shingle as a consultant, but underlining the fact that if it doesn't fit your needs, that's 'cause it's free and provided for my own amusement.
Of course, I suspect that when folks like that hit the overnight thread the following morning, they find a total of four comments.
We have the tools. You can get as little out of a forum as you want. =) I think it being the world's repository for the profane irrelevances of buccaneers and pirate fanciers makes it what it is, but if you don't want the economist's version of the Bucket O' Blood, I can see why you would screen it. Then again, I would go somewhere else if I didn't want to hear what the charlatans and robbers are saying. For example, Naked Capitalism seems to cover all the same topics but with a great deal more decorum and focus.
In a perfect act of contrition a few months ago, Jeff Immelt said that GE and the US wouldn't recover until both started to make things in this country again. Besides debt, what in the hell is GE and the US now making that he has become so effusive about the economy?
MBA plus Engineering degree? Sounds like he should go to law school and become an IP lawyer. The last high-paying field of law where having a C average out of any law school can get you 150K a year starting as a junior associate...
I'd say your sister-in-law might apply for a government position, however the process takes 9-12 months.
Something a lot of people miss when they assume government will just hire a few million people to boost the economy. Won't happen over-night, or over a year.
"What happened to the long bond ? Ben squander more capital trying to defend the fort from the vigilantes, giving them a much needed chance to get out ?"
Dollar and 10 year up. Does not look like he is doing anything yet. When does today's auction start?
sterlingerl - the unemployed college/grad school/professional school grads (80% of grads this Spring, based on reported numbers) will never show up in these numbers, since they are not eligible for unemployment compensation. They are simply "lost." Many will end up moving back in with parents and stresing out over paying back their student loans, whic hare not dischagable in bankruptcy.
Not too many green shoots today. Funny we get a report about the '08 Q4 and it's not "priced in". Classic.
[When it’s a loan structure issue, you can deal with that, but when it’s an unemployment issue, unless you go out and find them a job there’s not much you can do,” Brinkmann said in an interview. “Eventually that loan will go into foreclosure.” ]
Although claims as a percent of insured employment are less than the peaks of the '74, '80 and '82 recessions, as the graph clearly shows, the different natures of both employment and recessions in that era -- much more manufacturing employment, and recessions caused by Fed rate hikes and/or short-duration temporary layoffs for inventory adjustments -- meant that both initial and continuing claims were fairly soon back at normal levels. Although those recessions were sharp, they were also relatively short. But in the recessions of the last two decades both initial and continuing claims plateaued instead of peaking, and declined only slowly form those plateaus. Only in the '82 recession -- which was quite nasty -- did claims remain at high levels for nearly two years (the peak was so high they were still high for a long time despite the rapid fall).
But the '82 recession was quintessentially a Fed rate hike recession, and as rates began to drop back into the single-digit range, and Reagan ran huge deficits with the Japanese overjoyed to finance them at still-high interest rates, the economy recovered with some vigor. This recession, beginning with interest rates so low, with the Asians facing export slumps that will reduce their capacity to fund the deficits, and with the Asians less than overjoyed to fund them, is unlikely to end with any such surging return to prosperity.
The last time Bretton Woods was abrogated (gold window closed), within a year's time, the value of the greenback against the price of gold fell by over 2/3rds...
Does the value of the dollar go down 2/3rds, as the world decides on a new monetary course, this time around?
April's new home number was lower than march's initial print. But with the downward revision to march's number april squeaked out a slight bump in sales.
could it be the financial equivalent of adrenaline junkies?
or more seriously, if you still own GM common, maybe you feel like you have nothing left to lose so might as well see if you can make something doing some day-trading
We saw this during lehman (and AIG) meltdown. I swear the general population does not understand capital structure.
By implication, they do not understand what it means to buy "stock".
My favorite line during FNM meltdown: "The market cap is down to $200M -- the buildings have to be worth more than that."
do realize that there are two levels at play here. The instinctive, animal level, where we
want to punish those who have done us wrong, while those who have done us wrong have done it
following their animal desires. There is also the rational level, of which to I am
referring to above. Realistically, I know the beast in us will take over and this will end
like it did in France in the 1790's. I will, however, not be the one holding the sword.
I came across this interesting site..check it out Econ & Finance
Erste?
Working is overrated.
Less than expected, so to the moon?
(piggy backed from last thread)
What's the difference between Benjamins game of hyperinflation and previous efforts historically?
With paper currency, every citizen of every country was directly effected, as the powers that be recklessly printed more and more, but we are doing it all digitally, and the printing is done via mouse click only to a select group.
The hoi ploy (and quite a few of you) have no idea what's going on...
There is still time to get rid of all dollar-denominated assets before the clock strikes midnight for this $inderella Story.
I'm not sure why based on the service-sector heavy economy plus the comparatively high unemployment and continued claims figures we'll "recover"...although I will say that 1984 is looking where we are headed.
Market opens in 35 minutes. We shall see what we shall see. This afternoon could well be interesting.
Who keeps track of the VIX?
[the] initial claims was 623,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 636,000.
I'm curious. Were the previous weeks numbers revised up, or down? Yes I know google can be my friend, I'm just wondering out loud if someone's playing with the numbers a little.
Byz:
Be very careful lest you say something that will get you on somebody's ignore list. Of course, I suspect that when folks like that hit the overnight thread the following morning, they find a total of four comments.
As for this story, I'll wait for the revisions.
And now, off to the daily stuff.
Later.
What becomes of all the college and high school students who graduate in a few weeks? If they can't find jobs what stats do they show up on? I'm guessing they can't claim unemployment insureance having never paid in? How will we know the extent of their unemployment compared to past years?
Juvenal Delinquent: If you're going to use words like hoi polloi, please use them correctly including spelling. Especially when you take the liberty of re-posting stuff as a course of telling 'us' how much we don't know.
Jerry,
I'm not sure that is as relevant as the elevated level which is not, I repeat, not trending down.
Nor likely to trend down this year.
Little hiccups up and down do not a trend make...
--bh
There's only one intelligent and sophisticated thing one can say about news like this:
YICK.
blackhat: +1,
a trend is a trend until it is not.
sterlingerl writes: "What becomes of all the college and high school students who graduate in a few weeks?"
I remember 1974, when I graduated college. All the old folks asked the same thing, or something similar.
Not to worry. They'll figure it out.
Back to mortgage rates, yesterday my bank's rates started at 5.125. Then it changed to 5.25. At the end of the day it appears it went to 5.375.
Wonder what it's going to show when it opens today - should be soon.
Edit: opened at 5.375. maybe things are calming down.
I heard a statistic that 25% of college grads have jobs. I don't know if that is true or not, if someone knows, please let us know.
One interesting tidbit and one question:
From an AP piece on the jobless claims:
Auto-related layoffs elevated the claims numbers in recent weeks, but a Labor Department analyst said no states cited job cuts in that sector this week.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
And the question regards the durables - is the 1.9% increase from the dramatically revised lower number? If so, the increase is in line with estimates from the initial value...
But the government is revising down its estimate for new orders in March to show a drop of 2.1 percent, a much bigger fall than the 0.8 percent decline previously reported.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
sterlingerl,
For the college grads look for grad school, employer of last resort. And that means more debt-load, but the upshot is they will be graduating into a high-inflation environment in 2-4 more years--bad news is I doubt the economy will have reorganized itself around more productive endeavors--that is more productive then hocking stuff and inventing financial hold-to-maturity time-bombs--therefore few high quality jobs.
It's the high school grads without skills that don't matriculate into college that will be noteworthy, and therefore I will be providing them with an ideology they can believe in, nice brown uniforms so they look sharp and feel good about themselves, emphasizing less cerebral activities like hiking and camping and shooting people...
--bh
The ploy against the polloi continues, and yet they suspect nothing...
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/28/2009 - 9:06 am reply Ignore user The ploy against the polloi continues, and yet they suspect nothing...
Or, to paraphrase Orwell:
We were always at war with the middle-class.
--bh
@homedad
Ignore lists are good for suppressing people who want to resort to name-calling, insults, and ad hominem attacks. Fortunately, there have only been three posters to date who were too irritating to resist squelching them.
Moving on, recent conversations with CEOs of SMBs have turned from ones of "sales are turning the corner" to "oh my god, my credit facility just got yanked!". The unemployment story isn't over.
Is there sandbagging going on with the pump job in the yen? It has weakened against the dollar from a low yesterday of around 94.7 to currently about 97.2...
Old Claim Jumpers: Usurpers
New Claim Jumpers: Unemployed
Hoi Unempolloid
The Bilderberg Plan for 2009: Remaking the Global Political Economy
The Bilderberg Plan for 2009: Remaking the Global Political Economy
After the meetings finished, Daniel Estulin reported that, “One of Bilderberg’s primary concerns according to Estulin is the danger that their zeal to reshape the world by engineering chaos in order to implement their long term agenda could cause the situation to spiral out of control and eventually lead to a scenario where Bilderberg and the global elite in general are overwhelmed by events and end up losing their control over the planet.”[3]
Bilderberg investigative reporter Daniel Estulin reportedly received from his inside sources a 73-page Bilderberg Group meeting wrap-up for participants, which revealed that there were some serious disagreements among the participants. “
Estulin reported, “that some leading European bankers faced with the specter of their own financial mortality are extremely concerned, calling this high wire act "unsustainable," and saying that US budget and trade deficits could result in the demise of the dollar.”
One Bilderberger said that, “the banks themselves don't know the answer to when (the bottom will be hit).” Everyone appeared to agree, “that the level of capital needed for the American banks may be considerably higher than the US government suggested through their recent stress tests.” Further, “someone from the IMF pointed out that its own study on historical recessions suggests that the US is only a third of the way through this current one; therefore economies expecting to recover with resurgence in demand from the US will have a long wait.” One attendee stated that, “Equity losses in 2008 were worse than those of 1929,” and that, “The next phase of the economic decline will also be worse than the '30s, mostly because the US economy carries about $20 trillion of excess debt. Until that debt is eliminated, the idea of a healthy boom is a mirage.”[9]
More reveals - see article link
Where are the 3 million jobs created in ObamaNation ?
Jeff Immelt from GE says the worst is over. you can go outside now and play!
"I'm curious. Were the previous weeks numbers revised up, or down? Yes I know google can be my friend, I'm just wondering out loud if someone's playing with the numbers a little."
Don't use Google, use CR!
Unemployment Claims: Continued Claims at Record 6.66 Million
The original number was 631k, revised this week to 636k.
Volker the Viking - Thank you on the hoi polloi response to juvenile delinquint. Please, if you're going to use a term like hol polloi, spell it correctly or use another term like the "great unwashed" or "the masses".
Spaulding Smails to Danny Noonan in Caddyshack: "Ahoy polloi"! One of the best uses of the term in history!
BH, the first option was my plan a few years ago. It worked great and helped increase my salary when I did find a job.
As for the unemployment numbers, I'm puzzled why economists and the media are saying this is a sign that the recession/depression is bottoming out. The weekly numbers are within about 4% of the highest numbers lately, which does not signify any significant change. The graph shows plenty of >=4% fluctuations where the trend reversed afterward. Also, with GM on the verge of bankruptcy, it is very foolish for all these economists and the media to say that the numbers are bottoming out. Are these folks on antidepressants or is the Obama administration telling them to talk happy talk?
Expanding mommy's home garden and recycling cans will be the most popular activities for college grads since there will be very few jobs available. Cursing loudly all previous generations for their sins will be their favorite hobby.
Why are some of you such slaves to conventional word wisdom?
Actually "...just before Thanksgiving, Obama pledged to "create or preserve" 2.5 million jobs, a figure he increased to 3 million less than a month later..."
So if he just "preserves" 3 million jobs he hasn't broken a pledge. Now, how you measure that is maybe another thing. How we would know that people who would have been laid off were in fact not laid off is something I will leave to the wizards at the BLS.
Some Thursday Wisdom of Our Fathers:
"Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber."
---Plato
"Plato was a bore."
---Frederick Nitzsche
"Nietzsche was stupid and abnormal."
---Leo Tolstoy
continuing claims have not peaked for this cycle.
Durable Goods orders up 1.9% in April. Using this tepid number on top of a revised downward number to drive the markets up again! Yet another string to pull.
Unemployment numbers better than forecast. Please! What about the millions of people who's hours have been cut or are now "not actively looking for employment" and are not tracked by the labor department?
"Plato was a bore."
---Frederick Nitzsche
"Nietzsche was stupid and abnormal."
---Leo Tolstoy
I guess if they were contributors on this blog, the ignore buttons would be clicked like crazy.
What happened to the long bond ? Ben squander more capital trying to defend the fort from the vigilantes, giving them a much needed chance to get out ?
Never trust a hired economist because he will lose your money. Never trust self-made rich economist because he will take your money
Well the good news is that treasury yields are coming in a bit, the bad news is that oil is rallying into the decline in yields - almost back up to $64.
EDIT: Oil just quantitatively eased its way over $64/bbl.
Jon,
This is noteworthy. We are Euro-ing where we will have a very over-educated under-employed class of people but without the nation-state ammenities of health-care, wellfare, and other subsidies to keep the masses from claiming a competing idealogy.
And since this is now an "image war" on the economy, economists, media, administration officials are trying to manage expectations, perceptions--however at some point, just like the real economy, the reality will smack 20-30% of the populace in the face with raw unemployment.
It's dangerous and de-stabalizing.
--bh
My sister-in-law has been laid off for 4 months now, the last severance check was cashed 2 weeks ago, and she's going on unempolloiment.
She worked for one of the biggest law firms in her state and was pulling down $80k a year. She's been on the prowl (a cougar, but of course) for a new job and is realistic about earning less-much less, and has gone to boucoup interviews, where she has been repeatedly told "she's too qualified".
homedad43 (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 5/28/2009 - 8:57 am
Just writing a general answer, I know you're being ironical.
Byz:
Be very careful lest you say something that will get you on somebody's ignore list.
Yeah. I ignore a few people myself, I can't complain. You're always welcome to turn off my yammering. If people want real advice that's to their specifications and on a topic they precisely choose, they should wave money. Not like I'm trying to hang out a shingle as a consultant, but underlining the fact that if it doesn't fit your needs, that's 'cause it's free and provided for my own amusement.
Of course, I suspect that when folks like that hit the overnight thread the following morning, they find a total of four comments.
We have the tools. You can get as little out of a forum as you want. =) I think it being the world's repository for the profane irrelevances of buccaneers and pirate fanciers makes it what it is, but if you don't want the economist's version of the Bucket O' Blood, I can see why you would screen it. Then again, I would go somewhere else if I didn't want to hear what the charlatans and robbers are saying. For example, Naked Capitalism seems to cover all the same topics but with a great deal more decorum and focus.
B_R,
Sometimes I prefer the Chum-Bucket having to spend my billable hours in docorum and focus.
Although sometimes I get icked on and have to shower it off.
--bh
Please tell me this is a green shoot, otherwise it's disturbing.
In a perfect act of contrition a few months ago, Jeff Immelt said that GE and the US wouldn't recover until both started to make things in this country again. Besides debt, what in the hell is GE and the US now making that he has become so effusive about the economy?
My brother was laid off the same day as my sister-in-law, from the banking concern that had employed his services for about 10 years.
Seeing as he has an MBA from USC and an engineering degree, he's woefully overqualified...
He's still looking for a job.
anybody watching GM and Treasury this morning....GM is halted at 3.11, treasury working on note holders...great more money down the drain....
doesn't matter makes the second derivative look even better!!!!
Juvenal,
MBA plus Engineering degree? Sounds like he should go to law school and become an IP lawyer. The last high-paying field of law where having a C average out of any law school can get you 150K a year starting as a junior associate...
I'd say your sister-in-law might apply for a government position, however the process takes 9-12 months.
Something a lot of people miss when they assume government will just hire a few million people to boost the economy. Won't happen over-night, or over a year.
--bh
"What happened to the long bond ? Ben squander more capital trying to defend the fort from the vigilantes, giving them a much needed chance to get out ?"
Dollar and 10 year up. Does not look like he is doing anything yet. When does today's auction start?
So, what chance does Johnny McSchlub (with far too many visible tattoos) have of finding another job, when he loses his $10 an hour meal ticket?
update on GM- some first 10 minute bagholders might be a little unhappy...back to 1.15.
Silver shot up 2.5% in the first 20 minutes. Other commodities up also.........is the dollar down again?
Equities up, gold up, dollar up, oil up, treasuries up. Wow.
update on GM- some first 10 minute bagholders might be a little unhappy...back to 1.15.
Yes, I would say so.
headline just crossed at DJ:
Current GM Shrholders Not Receiving New Shares
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 5/28/2009 - 9:47 am
Dollar and 10 year up. Does not look like he is doing anything yet. When does today's auction start?
Today's Auction Results
Competitive Results
RockyR (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/28/2009 - 9:51 am reply Ignore user Equities up, gold up, dollar up, oil up, treasuries up. Wow.
Yes, I believe the phrase is "she's breaking up captain!"...
--bh
bh,
Please factor in that both of them are in their late 40's, which is a bigger minus than the plus that was their education, apparently.
sterlingerl - the unemployed college/grad school/professional school grads (80% of grads this Spring, based on reported numbers) will never show up in these numbers, since they are not eligible for unemployment compensation. They are simply "lost." Many will end up moving back in with parents and stresing out over paying back their student loans, whic hare not dischagable in bankruptcy.
The quantitative easing juice is @ $64 again...and climbing.
Looks like selling into strength on the long end of the curve.
so much for home sales rebounding
foreclosures take record leap....new home sales inch higher..
thank god theirs 12 inches in a foot....we would be in big trouble..
you make Elmo angry!
I can haz Elmo?
who are the idiots trading GM? Sure, there are HUGE short term swings, but damn, the stock can literally be halted permanently any second.
Home a loan.
Basel, I would guess some incredibly greedy people, you reap what you sow...and all that jazz.
Not too many green shoots today. Funny we get a report about the '08 Q4 and it's not "priced in". Classic.
[When it’s a loan structure issue, you can deal with that, but when it’s an unemployment issue, unless you go out and find them a job there’s not much you can do,” Brinkmann said in an interview. “Eventually that loan will go into foreclosure.” ]
The 9th circuit is making some inroads on student loans not being dischargeable. Still bloody difficult. I'm off to earn while I can.
Although claims as a percent of insured employment are less than the peaks of the '74, '80 and '82 recessions, as the graph clearly shows, the different natures of both employment and recessions in that era -- much more manufacturing employment, and recessions caused by Fed rate hikes and/or short-duration temporary layoffs for inventory adjustments -- meant that both initial and continuing claims were fairly soon back at normal levels. Although those recessions were sharp, they were also relatively short. But in the recessions of the last two decades both initial and continuing claims plateaued instead of peaking, and declined only slowly form those plateaus. Only in the '82 recession -- which was quite nasty -- did claims remain at high levels for nearly two years (the peak was so high they were still high for a long time despite the rapid fall).
But the '82 recession was quintessentially a Fed rate hike recession, and as rates began to drop back into the single-digit range, and Reagan ran huge deficits with the Japanese overjoyed to finance them at still-high interest rates, the economy recovered with some vigor. This recession, beginning with interest rates so low, with the Asians facing export slumps that will reduce their capacity to fund the deficits, and with the Asians less than overjoyed to fund them, is unlikely to end with any such surging return to prosperity.
The last time Bretton Woods was abrogated (gold window closed), within a year's time, the value of the greenback against the price of gold fell by over 2/3rds...
Does the value of the dollar go down 2/3rds, as the world decides on a new monetary course, this time around?
basel what are you talking about? Gm is up 20%. get aboard this money train or get outta the way!
Nice trick.
April's new home number was lower than march's initial print. But with the downward revision to march's number april squeaked out a slight bump in sales.
The gaming continues.
who are the idiots trading GM?
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could it be the financial equivalent of adrenaline junkies?
or more seriously, if you still own GM common, maybe you feel like you have nothing left to lose so might as well see if you can make something doing some day-trading
Looks like Elmo woke up, and he's hungry.
Seize their world today-including Chevrolet, what's good for GM is good for the country they say.
who are the idiots trading GM?
We saw this during lehman (and AIG) meltdown. I swear the general population does not understand capital structure.
By implication, they do not understand what it means to buy "stock".
My favorite line during FNM meltdown: "The market cap is down to $200M -- the buildings have to be worth more than that."
do realize that there are two levels at play here. The instinctive, animal level, where we
want to punish those who have done us wrong, while those who have done us wrong have done it
following their animal desires. There is also the rational level, of which to I am
referring to above. Realistically, I know the beast in us will take over and this will end
like it did in France in the 1790's. I will, however, not be the one holding the sword.
I came across this interesting site..check it out Econ & Finance
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If claims only represent some 60% of those losing their jobs, then the real number should be ~1million and the total ~11million.