We're about to catch some 70's STD, aren't we?

"great responses to the 30yr comment everyone. Now does the question is FHA/FHLB/Freddie/Fannie/Ginnie go down before the Federal government? Then the follow-up question of if the govt ditches them under any context, does the market take the govt down in response?"

Good questions. That is why I think the govt should just nationalize Fannie/Freddie and mix all the debt together. But that would cut off a future stream of political donations, wouldn't it?

time to towel the bond market

"Bondholders Push GM to Brink of Bankruptcy"

Horse poop! GM's management did it. The bond holders are trying to ensure that GM lives up to it's contracts.

"Bondholders Push GM to Brink of Bankruptcy"

yeah, those damned evil bondholders made GM go bankrupt by insisting they be paid back!

Comrade Misean is Dope (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 1:18 pm

"Now does the question is FHA/FHLB/Freddie/Fannie/Ginnie go down before the Federal government?"

Two equally weighted anvils sit on a cliffs edge, chained around Wile E. Coyote's neck, who is danlgeling over the edge. Does it really matter which one the Road Runner pushes off first?

LMAO!! I had to repost in case anyone missed that, too funny.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jobless claims don't fall below 600,000 next month. Might jack treasuries even higher.

So, the question now becomes, who sold that death spiral bond insurance?

AIG?

If so, yet another reason to watch cesspit of bond insurance.

GM has been worth more dead, than alive for quite a while.

I can hardly wait for the damage from this one to surface.

Someday this war's gonna end...

but isn't this the scenario where the swaps make it more favorable for the bondholders to push the corporation into bankruptcy?

take the second o in shorts for obamanomics and replace it with an r for recession

If I were a bond holder I would be less willing to lend to any other US corp from now on.

===

where will e.g. pension funds invest instead? Long T's ?

Bankruptcy is the remedy.........toward a deeper recession.

Bondholders are as much to blame as unions.
They insisted on unsustainable returns.
That's why we have the credit cycle, the postive feedback creates the illusion of higher returns until the Crash.

See the USA in Your Palosi! That just doesn't sound right either.

Pension funds will invest in their own company's stock. If one fails, they both do. That set of possibilities mean the pension fund likes the odds of investing in the originating company better than the market.

A recovery in the second half of this year will be 'moderate,' according to a report from the National Association for Business Economics.(CNN Money)

Don't quit that second job bussing tables just yet ....

As someone mentioned, GM's BK filing should result in at least one new stock being added to the Dow. Also, even though the event won't be a surprise, market volatility will probably increase, no?.

OT-
Kass: The Perma-Bear Cult | Financial Advisor Update | Financial Articles & Investing News | TheStreet.com 

Oops, I should disclose that I make a market in Dow futures.

I was a staunch deflationista until a couple of weeks ago and started to buy gold, silver, and grains. I decided the Fed isn't at all concerned with inflation so we're gonna get it. Not fighting the Fed on this one.

Kauai_Kahuna
Of course from the buyer's perspective it only contributes to the prices of houses, however I was thinking from purely the investor's side there. I can't think of a situation where I would confidently price a 30yr fixed rate mortgage today at a level the market would bear. I'm essentially saying that 30yr fixed rate mortgages must be too cheap if they even exist at all. What kind of prepayment, currency, interest rate, default, natural disaster, environmental, political, etc risks do they actually assume?

What has happened with the CA tidal wave? Still hanging in the air?

ghostfaceinvestah
I'm thinking BB is at the end of his rope at the end of summer/early fall. By that time exporters can only throw in the towel and move on to plan b.

Ben isn't "damaging" the bond market, the long cycle shift to higher rates began in 2003.
Ben is just trying to suppress it.

I can't think of a situation where I would confidently price a 30yr fixed rate mortgage today at a level the market would bear.
What about if you sold the mortgage in a package of a group of mortgages to investors? What could go wrong with that?

"Bondholders are as much to blame as unions."

Unless they turn a profit on AIG CDS bankrolled by the taxpayer. Then they are more to blame.

Schwarzenegger proposes eliminating welfare, children's health care and college aid
Isn't that just a negotiating ploy?

"What kind of prepayment, currency, interest rate, default, natural disaster, environmental, political, etc risks do they actually assume?"

Don't forget counterparty risk (Fannie/Freddie).

"I'm thinking BB is at the end of his rope at the end of summer/early fall."

My timing as well.

If he gives up on the MBS market, and CONgress hasn't done anything about Fannie/Freddie, going short the mortgage basis is going to be hugely profitable.

"What about if you sold the mortgage in a package of a group of mortgages to investors? What could go wrong with that? "

And then took that package, combined it with other mortgage packages, and sold bonds from that?

It has a AAA, after all.

"What happens next month when the city of Oxnard, CA fails to make their next payment towards their leaseback arrangement for their streets?"

Silly, they don't have streets in Oxnard.

/ducks

How would a nuclear war with Russia affect the stock market?

Who gets the first shot?

How would a nuclear war with Russia affect the stock market?

Well, when it was over, the new stock market would be at a flea market in topeka

Outsider (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 1:42 pm
"Schwarzenegger proposes eliminating welfare, children's health care and college aid "

Isn't that just a negotiating ploy?

No, that is a tentative first step. California needs to live with a cap of $72b in revenue but is still on track for $115b in spending.

An REO fell thru (but is being replaced by another). Sale price 116k, appraisal 90k; supposed compromise 100k (I gather the buyer has some money). Selling bank got bored, or something and sold the property/.loan to another bank WITHOUT GIVING THE BUYER A CHANCE TO MAKE A FULL PRICE OFFER. Which I gather he might have. These people are still trying to do business by dealing with huge swathes of stuff, instead of individual properties--they's have to at least double their staff--instead of individual properties and it can't be done. They have not the slightest idea of what they are doing.

broward -

From a macro standpoint, bondholders want higher returns than what is possible in an economy that grows 3%.

Here is what is making me howl at the moon, with a 3% growth and inflation that has lately been much higher than that. (Note to the Gov: Energy, food, etc, do count in my personal cost of living). And massive destruction of any normal personal holdings current at what? 11T for US households.

Adding in a shrinking pay level, increased tax's, etc. When I plug all of that into a retirement plan spreadsheet, if I'm lucky I may be able to retire at 98 with out being crushed by life. And I think the spreadsheet ends at 97 years of age.

So, should I be buying the old UNI-bomber land and start digging a fall out shelter to china? (Not that I could afford it, but hey its a thought right?)

Oh, Misean, you shoulda resisted!

ZackAttack - Except for banks, whose bonds have been made 100% whole

Only the 19 to big to fail ones. But they still need to raise money with out the government backing already given.
Somebody slap me!

They insisted on unsustainable returns.

That's why we have the credit cycle, the positive feedback creates the illusion of higher returns until the Crash.

Pearls before swine.

In a few years this will once again be obvious to all, as it is once or twice a century.

Given how many cities financed, built, and own their local sports stadia -- I would say that is a reasonable lid on the cookie jar

Just putting your name on a sports stadium is enough to send you into a death spiral.

Remember when Ameriquest was the "official mortgage company of major league baseball"?

When I plug all of that into a retirement plan spreadsheet, if I'm lucky I may be able to retire at 98 with out being crushed by life. And I think the spreadsheet ends at 97 years of age.

Too bad you don't have a public pension. Then you'd be able to retire with full benefits at 50.

I think that it'd be hilarious if the wealthier state pension funds started buying California assets at firesale prices and leased them back to California residents.

flaminia -

I also paid off my mortgage in 10 years by living paycheck to paycheck.

I like to joke that when I went on Mid shifts, the recession started. I lived a very crazy party life, in the last year the cut backs brought us down from 35 people doing a busy job, to 5 people doing an insane job. Needless to say I don't get to go out any more and spend my money.
The good side is my savings rate is up to around 45% and my goal is 50%. But tax's makes that a little hard to do. So yes I am one of those people who is saving too much and killing our consumer economy, I'm sorry but deal with it.

Rob Dawg wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - What happens next month when the city of Oxnard, CA fails to make their next payment towards their leaseback arrangement for their streets?

Selling public assets should result in public draw/quartering episodes for the officials who do the selling.

I guess the new owners could just block all the streets, and if feeling retributive, call in the demolition crews. More likely, a toll booth at each corner or major intersection. Could they find a judge to order an garnishment on all the citizens paychecks? (Which wouldn't be a "TAX" because, just because).

(I wonder if the sidewalks were included in the selling deal?)

Following this logic, we could sell the Statue of Liberty, all US aircraft carriers, the Pentagon, The US Capitol (renamed US Capital), and Yellowstone Nat. Park. I bet China would like the carriers when the US defaulted.

Some days, the crazy stuff just doesn't seem real, and then you find that it is.

"Forgive me for being suspicious, but why are the cuts always focused on the poor and children?"

Not a lot of voting or lobbying being done by those groups.

lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 4:55 pm
Miami's new sports stadium, on the old Orange Bowl site, just penciled out at a high rate with the ratings
agencies. I mean people are still acting like building a stadium and getting ratings agency approval are both
rational, meaningful enterprises.

Would you deny the populace its raison d'être in the name of being "rational"?

Panem et circenses prevail.

I do agree with broward that market expectations are too far skewed towards returns generated by ponzi finance (I'm using the term ponzi in the spirit of Minsky's Instability Hypothesis, not trying to be a fringe element). El-Erian isn't a loon when he says potential GDP growth in the US might be 2% (try not to think about what average interest rate on the national debt can be paid without borrowing any new money)
,,,
This implosion big enough to halt almost all ongoing ponzis — whether they were intentional like Madoff, or coincidental like granite countertops. People will rightly be very afraid of losing any further money.
,,,
Long term, very boring, investments will rule the roost at very low yields after we finished the multi-lateral downward adjustments. Yes, that will mean bonds will yields less than stocks which will start paying dividends again for the first time since 1958 when it was the norm.
,,,
There is a reason why infrastructure has been so underfunded, it's because you can't make real productive projects work on an 8% borrowing rate. Communications, energy, transportation. The bread and butter of a modern economy. Rolling out existing technology to boost productivity. Once everyone's heart rate slows back down, we'll progress into R&D without having to submit marketing plans along preliminary research proposals. Then at that point it will matter whether or not the government of the day will or will not stop the bubbles that come forth.

"12/31/08 - Oxnard was in a bind, facing a $150-million bill to fix cracking and crumbling streets and no way to pay for the work without cutting other services. The city had tried, and failed, to get voters to approve a bond measure for street repair. And it had borrowed money against almost all of its public property, including a soccer stadium, three fire stations and its library -- even the Police Department's evidence-storage building. With virtually nothing left to hock, the city came up with an ingenious way to take on more debt: It borrowed against future revenue by "selling" its streets to a city-controlled financing authority."

green shoots looking more like green shorts

Brown shorts for Bernanke.

Black I never understand this stuff--they sold it to themselves?

4 of the five council members address me by my first name

What? No "Yo Dawg?"

ac - Brown shorts for Bernanke.
I have learned that academic/book learnings does tend to do that when it meets reality.
Maybe he is starting to feel like your average joe-six pack who is looking at his 401K/pension plan.
Do the people with pension plans even bother to research how it is standing or are they just sheep being led to slaughter?

Dark pools of liquidity.

Nice little wedge that has formed on the S&P. We all remember what happened the last time one of these showed up on the charts, right?

nova (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 2:08 pm
4 of the five council members address me by my first name
What? No "Yo Dawg?"

LOL. The one who knew my online identity was fortunate enough to lose the last election last November.

the people with pension plans even bother to research how it is standing or are they just sheep being led to slaughter?

I think most people who are still part of pension plans have tented to be quite passive. You generally don't have much say in the matter -- at least that's how it been until recently.

re: education
I believe Obama is pro-Charter schools which seem like a convenient way to cut budgets at this juncture

We too threw a lot of extra money into paying off the mtg. Did it in just a little over 11 years.

Pricing at 8 % is impossibly high. Pricing at 2% will not encourage investors. I guess an awful lot
of stuff should have never gotten invested in. And gosh, we have an awful lot of empty buildings of all
types.

...lets see.......they borrow the worth of an asset..........promise to make lease payments on that building/road/stadium/fill-in-the-blank asset, guarantee the lease payments (on that asset) with a future revenue stream that is now being clamped shut and "petering" out.

Am I getting this right?

CA Political News |
show

What happens to the $trillion in CDS written on GM debt in the event of a BK? I understand rules were re written to make these contracts whole.

Oxmyx?

At what point does the POTUS get on TV and say "govt bonds are becoming a potentially good deal for those willing to think long term".

We just received an investment proposal which consists of 50% bonds, 50% stocks.

Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 2:12 pm nova (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 2:08 pm
4 of the five council members address me by my first name
What? No "Yo Dawg?"

For some reason I don't think they would have a hard time remembering the name ROB.

They seem to be ROB-bing the citizens of Oxnard, blind.

~miser

No, it was Rockford Files.

And Carson.

"So the upshot is that taxes are raised without voter approval?"

..........I think so, Law Liz...............enabling profligate spending. From 2006 to present, I'd bet many cities throughout the State have gotten their hands wet with this "fiscal orgy".

ED = Viagra

A good example of what I meant: Viagra was a failed heart medication that turned out to have a marketable side-effect.

For every drug there's a disease--mythical or otherwise. You just have to sell it. And when the patent runs out you need to come up with a new one, or re-invent the treatment. And there's often money to be made by extending existing treatments, too--instead of just taking a drug when needed you take it every day for the rest of your life as a prophylactic.

EvilHenryPaulson-
re: education

I believe Obama is pro-Charter schools which seem like a convenient way to cut budgets at this juncture

That would mean going against the teachers union, I know that if I say any thing bad about the 'underful edumation hr in havai', here:
I need to leave quickly if there is a teacher within half a mile. Usually it entails me tucking my head under my shoulders covering my ears trying to get out without serious head injuries.

"There is no free lunch and anyone calling for nationalization without understanding WHY they haven't been nationalized needs to look a bit more carefully."

Oh, I think I understand very well why they haven't nationalized.

It basically comes down to this choice:

1. Have BB buy all their MBS, since no one else will at decent spreads.
2. Nationalize and take the hit on the govt balance sheet, but be able to sell MBS at a decent spread without Fed sponsorship (albeit off a higher base).

BB (and Geithner, no doubt) thought they could have a free lunch, by printing money to monetize MBS. They thought Option 1 was cost-free. Today, we are seeing there is a cost.

over the long term, which has the higher cost? I think Option 1 costs more in the long term. You think Option 2. Difference in opinion. No reason to question my level of understanding.

"How many times in years past have I heard the threat: We'll have to cut out the arts and music programs in the public schools. Invariably, people would be up in arms. Sob stories all over the papers, parents protesting. I don't think I've ever seen those cuts actually happen"

You're not from New York City, are you.

traderwalt - No,

That truly was meant as joke, sorry, maybe I should change my handle to "if I'm typing I'm being sarcastic".

Rob, would you prefer the main street to be "Rob Dawg Way" or Rob Dawg Boulevard (oh, soo French!)

"That would mean going against the teachers union, I know that if I say any thing bad about the 'underful edumation hr in havai', here:
I need to leave quickly if there is a teacher within half a mile. Usually it entails me tucking my head under my shoulders covering my ears trying to get out without serious head injuries."

Nah, you should just be euthanized. Your not worth a dime.

Oh yeah, Charter schools should be abolished. Waste of money.

The bond market tuna melt today was really depressing to watch. It caught me by surprise and even though I am not very exposed, small losses feel magnified in this market. The final refuge is in the short end (other than coinz).

Absent the fed, long term government bonds would be priced competitively against other alternative investments. That said, without the fed, the alternatives (equities, bonds) would worth much less. And many would be worthless without the fed.

The sham is coming apart at the seems.

by the time the MBS shuts down like CMBS, Bernanke will be more worried about the Treasury procuring enough funding to maintain government petty cash (about $30bn is their minimum comfort level), which is probably when he brings in the cap on long term treasuries to initiate the auto-pilot QE and lets that displaced cash move into mortgages -- which at that time may have more vulture opportunities. If he prints large publicly, he might have to print less as many investors would lower their sell prices just to get safe. Of course reputation gets shot to hell, there is huge inflation.. but if its inevitable, going down spectacularly is probably the best course of action

"........when the deficit of California equals the budget of Florida, it is time for radical changes. Part time legislature"...........to start with. Send them back to a real job in their own backyard. Our State Assemblyman works at a dairy when he's not 'part-time legislatin'

"by the time the MBS shuts down like CMBS, Bernanke will be more worried about the Treasury procuring enough funding to maintain government petty cash (about $30bn is their minimum comfort level)..."

At some point, he will literally drop dollars out of a helicopter, is my guess.

lawyerliz -

I thought it was glowing catz.

At least they might be easy to find if the slip away.
I have a lot of cat people around here, and there is nothing better than a cat jumping out of the dark bushes running right in front of you to test your heart health. I think anything that I can't kill in an nervous reaction needs a strobe light on it so I like the idea.

Years and years ago (like 2-3, and for many years prior to that), when dinosaurs (or lizards) ruled the earth, people would sit
on the sidelines scared to buy a house. Then, rumors of interest rate hikes or actual hikes would happen
and the people would jump in & buy.

Will history repeat itself?

Au contraire, very comique, Dawg.

"Our State Assemblyman works at a dairy when he's not 'part-time legislatin' "

Even here in the Big Apple the local pols have day jobs. But we worry that if we pay them too little, only a certain class will take the job. Vikram Pandit works for a dollar a year.

ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 5:38 pm

At some point, he will literally drop dollars out of a helicopter, is my guess.

Les Nessman: It's flying something behind it and I can't quite make it out. It's a large banner and it says H A P P Y... T H A N K S... giving... from W... K... R... P! What a sight, ladies and gentlemen. What a sight. The 'copter seems to circling the parking area now. I guess it's looking for a place to land. No! Something just came out of the back of a helicopter. It's a dark object, perhaps a skydiver plummeting to earth from only two thousand feet in the air... There's a third... No parachutes yet... They can't be skydivers. I can't tell just yet what they are but... Oh my God! They're turkeys! Oh no! Johnny can you get this? Oh, they're crashing to the earth right in front of our eyes! One just went through the windshield of a parked car! This is terrible! Everyone's running around pushing each other. Oh my goodness! Oh, the humanity! People are running about. The turkeys are hitting the ground like sacks of wet cement! Folks, I don't know how much longer... The crowd is running for their lives. I think I'm going to step inside. I can't stand here and watch this anymore. No, I can't go in there. Children are searching for their mothers and oh, not since the Hindenberg tragedy has there been anything like this. I don't know how much longer I can hold my position here, Johnny. The crowd...

Lawyers are more prone to fake latin than fake french, I believe.

Hungry. Off to eat.

lawyerliz-

Years and years ago

I would hope so for the few people that it makes sense for, but that is a small amount when the realistic fear level is so high.
In so many places the downside is still very high, but a number of people have been sitting and waiting building up their cash and paying over priced rents.
I know a lot of people out here just sitting it out, but our market is only starting to fall through the cracks.
I know when I look at houses in Ohio, I would snap one up right away if I moved there, but I don't think I could deal with that. Not the location, just the work.
If there is one thing, it is location, it all depends.

lawyerliz -

Lawyers are more prone to fake latin than fake french, I believe.

And that I can fake understanding, maybe. It all depends if smiles and head nods count.

Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 4:39 pm

Amen - Can I have a reality check?

Yes, but don't complain to me if it bounces.

scuba debtors

"Genetically engineered monkeys pass green glow to offspring"

I gotta get me one of those.

"10-1 Cali elects Brown to governor."

Again?! If they do, I'll laugh when they implode.

Rahmbo is floating a red herring for a VAT tax.... That should help...

CalculatedRisk,

At some stage you will have to start admitting that older assumptions are not working in the new reality. I am curious to see when you will reach that stage..

Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 6:06 pm

I hate to pull a page from the bad boys play book, but I tend to think the equation would be more along the lines of dropping bombs to defend the dollar if push comes shove. Don't like it, but when a bully gets pushed into a corner there is only two ways to go.

Military power spring from economy power, not vice versa. After the thrill of a few days of bombing, then what? Ask Israel how that Second Lebanon War felt, or the US about the ta-rah-rah of invading Iraq without an occupation plan. Or, more saliently, the former leaders of Argentina for starting the Falkland Islands War. Just putting my opinion out there, but I think that there's nothing less useful for defending the dollar than a gun.

I have heard rumblings Brown is going to run again. Scary!

Kauai_Kahuna,

What we want to believe is no longer true.. and this particular problem is huge in almost every field- from clinical trials to economic numbers/ indices. We have created a lot of sham numbers, models and indices over the last 30 years (or corrupted the old ones beyond use).

The current reality is that all our "experts" are not just incompetent but they are lying and incompetent. So where do we go from here..

i hate to say it, but there is a new paradigm...reality/karma/God has a funny way of working... like a Thief in the night....

"That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born? "

LUCIFER~!!!! uh oh... hoocoodanode indeed!

We're doomed. I've lost faith in Obama's ability to help the economy short or long term.

From this WaPo article

Obama Says Clean-Energy, Stimulus Plans Creating Jobs

In Nevada, Obama Touts Clean Energy Production and Announces New Projects - washingtonpost.com

"The facility, a public-private joint venture that cost $100 million to construct"

"will save the Air Force, the federal government's largest energy consumer, nearly $1 million a year"

So....100 years to break even, and thats not including the interest on the borrowed $100 million. Is this thing designed to last 100 years? I doubt it.

Our grandchildren as so f'n screwed. What a dumb investment. I can't believe he calls it a "shining example"

%&*!

I have said that often.. though "reality" is my word of choice.

//reality/karma/God has a funny way of working//

Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 6:23 pm

.......yep....nothing less useful.

Note, we're here, bankrupt and hated by the world, with a government that alternates between ignoring the wishes of the populace and treating them like each of them is a potential terrorist. I would not hitch my thumbs in my belt and belch just yet.

Shiela Bari on Jim Cramer shaow saying that those high deposit rates are a problem and are bleeding the system. "we don;t like the hgih deposit rates" Unreal has to listen to be believed

How is that strategy working?

//Last I checked if you stuck in quicksand, stop moving.//

"but I think that there's nothing less useful for defending the dollar than a gun. "

Agreed, such a typically American response to think that we can defend our lifestyle via our military. Iraq has, what, 31MM people over 170K square miles? How many troops are in there, barely hanging on to a fragile peace?

Only one way to defend the dollar - get our house in order, and start living within our means. I know, not the message most of our people want to hear.

Bad decisions have to reach their logical conclusion, and the old system has to fail in a spectacular manner. Until then PTB will keep on trying to "steady the ship" by changing rules. They are just trying to protect the status quo... sadly it won't work.

//Please let me know when they stop changing so I can start making decisions.//

The house is burning and all we have time to save IS our guns.......

Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 6:24 pm

Actually I would have to say most of those worked for the short term goal.
Who thinks long term with an election coming up?

Anyone who wants to fight a decent war! If you're hoping to save the dollar, another, even more alienating and indebting short term solution would be par for the policymakers but I don't think I'd recommend it if you actually wanted to accomplish the stated aim. You cannot make people believe in you.

Except that. When was the last time Argentina did anything that worked.

Richter: "You steal men's souls and make them your slaves!!!"
Dracula: "Perhaps the same could be said of all religions"

...Or of the other nation in the analogy...

By law it would have passed back to Argentina in a few years, but they decided to start a war to make their point because they thought GB would not follow the law.

They wanted a war for political ends. it led directly to the downfall of their government. Likewise Iraq and Lebanon. Wars started for the spectacle or on an emotional impulse rarely end well.

End result, it became a matter of pride and not law, and a number of people died to ensure it stays that way.

It didn't materially improve Argentina's position. Likewise, attacking our creditors in an attempt to extort riches from them or compel their respect seems unlikely. Most have thoughtfully gain access to atomic arsenals in anticipation of just such a turn of events, in fact.

3 billion is now like 3 million a decade ago..

//I'm seeing that it is currently a $3B fund//

".........reveals that the US operates and/or controls between 700 and 800 military bases Worldwide.......... confirms the presence of US military personnel in 156 countries.........The US Military has bases in 63 countries. Brand new military bases have been built since September 11, 2001 in seven countries........In total, there are 255,065 US military personnel deployed Worldwide."

And all of that "without an occupation plan."

Byzantine_Ruins -
This might sound very strange, but I think we agree.

Exxon CEO says oil demand is flat.

Exxon CEO Says Oil Demand Still Flat - WSJ.com

Guess all those green shoots must be occurring without using oil.

Most of the bases around the world are welcomed. Most pay leases and add nicely to the local economy. They get a measure of free defense of their country. In turn we used to have world wide influence that we have lost since Obamas Apology tour.

I'm headed out for a bit, folks. A dear friend gave me the hamthrax. Also, I want to play Bahamut Lagoon more than I want to talk to all of you. =)

Lucifer (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 5:36 pm

Decisions based on hubris can only end in one way - catastrophic failure.

exactly. it works until it doesn't. but the question is always "when"?

ResistanceIsFeudal,

It is hard to predict the exact date.. but let's say that we cannot remain in our current state for over a year with greater than 95% confidence. Let's say, someone is standing on a building's edge ready to jump off. There are 2 possibilities- they will jump within a few hours or they will decide not to jump.

That is why I try to get people's feedback on upcoming clusters of situations that will result in the next step.

//exactly. it works until it doesn't. but the question is always "when"?//

"In turn we used to have world wide influence that we have lost since Obamas Apology tour. "

That's funny. For some reason in my travels through Asia and Europe a few other things came up in regards to waning US world wide influence. Minor things such as Gitmo, the Iraq War, forcing austerity measures on Asia during the Currency Crisis and refusing to take the same measures ourselves, Americans not realizing that there is a functioning world outside of the US. Minor things like that.

Yeah the one positive of the Obama Administration has been the improvement in our diplomatic image abroad. Almost worth the sell-out to big finance.

Well, not even 'almost' really.

Lucifer (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 6:05 pm

That is why I try to get people's feedback on upcoming clusters of situations that will result in the next step.

in dealing with complex nonlinear systems we can only talk in terms of probabilities really. we're looking for a critical point that will emerge at the point of catastrophe or maximum entropy, basically. as this thing gets more and more absurd the likelihood of such an event becomes greater and greater, but the form it will take or the place it will begin cannot be known. the embodied false beliefs will eventually be consumed by their own self-contradictions.

Long term capital gains should be taxed at ordinary rates.

Why do you think we have such a nasty securitization crisis?

1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/27/2009 - 6:06 pm

Well, you get what you pay for, and if the electorate doesn't pay the legislator enough to keep him happy the monied interests will.

We pay our representatives 3-4x the median family income (by 2007 standards) and most are already millionaires before they take office, or become such after "serving" us in this capacity. Just how much money do you think they need to be paid so that we can be assured they can't be bought? 10x the earnings of the average family? How much does buying honesty and integrity cost, which is high enough that monied power interests can't corrupt him? Oh, wait....

I actually had 666 as a target myself, though I was too lazy to pull any triggers (and also believe that there's no reason we shouldn't be at spx 350 eventually - perhaps with as long a bear as the Nikkei). Why 666? Because Satan laughs at equity investors on the way down and shorts on the way up, of course!