Case-Shiller: House Prices Tracking More Adverse Scenario
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 05/26/2009 - 5:36am (80 comments)
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(BoA & Co): Houston, the landing has been delayed, requesting the stress test #2. Please confirm the transmission, stress test # 2 simulation due to uncertain wether conditions?
(TG): This is Houston, 10-4.
Houston: Financial shuttle: Go for throttle-up
Plainly, it's time for a new Fed lending facility.
Poor Detroit. Seriously.
Financials are up! BKX is up nearly 1%!
I've been hearing anecdotal stories from friends about folks that have lost their $25-35 an hour jobs and are happily working for around $10-12 an hour...
How much longer before the minimum wage gets bumped down to $4 an hour, in keeping up with the trend?
Duke of Con Dao (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/26/2009 - 9:37 am reply Ignore user on the second chart doesn't the hockey stick at the end mean an uptick?
... what are they saying on CNBC?
Erin said if these numbers don't start improving soon, green shoots will die
JPMorgan $29 Billion WaMu Windfall Turned Bad Loans Into Income
May 26 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. stands to reap a $29 billion windfall thanks to an accounting rule that lets the second-biggest U.S. bank transform bad loans it purchased from Washington Mutual Inc. into income.
Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of America Corp. and PNC Financial Services Group Inc. are also poised to benefit from taking over home lenders Wachovia Corp., Countrywide Financial Corp. and National City Corp., regulatory filings show. The deals provide a combined $56 billion in so-called accretable yield, the difference between the value of the loans on the banks’ balance sheets and the cash flow they’re expected to produce.
/endsnip
Note: In this article we are supposed to believe that "deeply" discounted valuations for distressed assets carried on the big banks books will help from an accounting perspective to be realized as very profitable--after-all, since green shoots and recovery are glimmer-glammered--it's clear sailing from here...
Anyway, note the further deteriorations in case-shiller and how these relate to the likely profitability of these assets.
These banks are going to shoot-south of the severely distressed scenario and we'll be back where we started.
--bh
They're skyin' 'em, boss......
Nothing like a nuke scare to goose the market!
oh, and the obvious of course is that with much of this data in plain sight, financials are up.
Situation Normal All Financials Up
the CSHPI numbers are not directly comparable to the scenarios as they are 3-month averages. Can you try to deconvolute them into monthly data? If you can, I suspect they will show price declines greater than the more adverse scenario.
It's almost as if we are being misinformed in order to validate political decisions made for the benefit of a select few.
HOW F'ING WEIRD IS THAT!?!
Not to worry the FED just upgraded their printing equipment and bought more paper and ink
If I wanted to be more optimistic, couldn't I say that at least they were realistic in their "more adverse scenario"? If the number were tracking below the more adverse number Armageddon would be more of a certainty, no?
We are in deep kimchee.
I have a friend who's moving to Florida and has already done a recon mission and is excited because "houses are so cheap down there!"
How times change...
nova,
hmmm... kimchee.
--bh
The real tragedy of what's about to happen, is all the perps are multi-nationals, that will just scurry elsewhere with their ill-gotten gains, and not have to face the music...
kridkrid,
sure if you believe in trend lines. Look at case-shiller--IMO that is not exactly a nice orderly curve, but more of falling off a precipice.
It's going to rain anvils and it's going to go below the trend line. Give it 3 months and we'll be there.
--bh
invest in bank stocks, primarily Citi, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Why? Because those fuckers are good at stealing money.
"hmmm... kimchee."
I thought that an apt expression, too, Blackhat.
Well if he waits a little more he will be happier since they'll keep going down. It is the gift that keeps on giving...
The stress test was a home run.
The shuttle's landed, but bad housing prices have put the market into lift-off boost: S&P up 1.27% and headed for the moon.
The worst the economic news, the better the market likes it. I guess my glasses don't give me the correctly polarized view.
Oh we do so love that river in Egypt...
Check the consumer confidence report out at 10 am...
The real tragedy of what's about to happen, is all the perps are multi-nationals, that will just scurry elsewhere with their ill-gotten gains, and not have to face the music...
They can run, but they can't hide. The post 9/11 trashing of the sovereignty of nearly all offshore havens demonstrated how few of them are willing to take the risk of telling it to the Marines. Seemed like a really good idea to Cheney and his pigmen pals at the time . . . . but you can bet they're sorry now.
Love, love LOVE that market.
Flat or red at close
Wow the financial engineering racket is simply the best organized white collar crime organization ever !
ConCon: recession's over. LOL.
Maybe we should send the Great White Fleet on a tour of the Cayman's and other hidey holes for hot money from the US bankers.
energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 5/26/2009 - 10:12 am
Check the consumer confidence report out at 10 am...
It's up! Sky that market bay-bee.
The price of homes got up to like 10-12 times earnings in Cali, what's to stop them from undershooting the previous long-held standard of 3x earnings?
km4 (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/26/2009 - 10:16 am
Wow the financial engineering racket is simply the best organized white collar crime organization ever !
Nothing can compete economically with the tarponomic process.
Last sucker in the pool is a rotten egg!
Maybe we should send the Great White Fleet on a tour of the Cayman's and other hidey holes for hot money from the US bankers.
Not necessary -- they've already rolled over.
I wonder how the foreclosure moratorium effected this data... Seems like the true index price isnt accurately being reported cause of the extra inventory.... Am I wrong?
So, we drank the "green shoots" cola and ran wild and free! The graceless American consumer has mounted the white stallion of recovery and is riding tall into the green grass that carpets the fields of America.
It is a new day as we listen to the twin turbines of the American economy power up. Thank Goblin that we are so blessed as a people and a nation. America! If she was a women she would be the hottest on the planet. If America! was a man he would be the warrior king!
Get on board the love train as we head down the rails of prosperity!
fyi... the CR rental market is off 25% here in Phnom Penh ....
I checked with sources in Ho Chi Minh City (still hate that name) and it's the same...
those of you who know Vietnam know where the central highlands are, big battles were waged there at Pleiku, Kontum. etc...
by II Corps...
Now, Hanoi has this idea of moving in these huge Chinese mining operations which would involve thousands of Chinese
workers due to their skill set ... this has created an uproar, even 97 year old General Giap has made statements against the plan, he said the Chinese workers would bring their wives and children and settle and never leave!
NateG's earlier comment about ' freedom from noise is more important than speech' is so ridiculous I can't counter...
anyone know what would drive a price change in Minnesota by 6%
Now, Hanoi has this idea of moving in these huge Chinese mining operations which would involve thousands of Chinese
Selling out your people for profit was never just an American thing...
WTF ???
"Economy: The Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 54.9 in May from 40.8 in April."
Who the hell did they ask to take part in the survey? Buffet and Bernake?
[House Prices Tracking More Adverse Scenario]
Stock market tracking Goldilocks Scenario. Which one will be right ?
Formerly 1st world Argentines took to the streets of Buenos Aries cooking pots in hands, clanging them together as their protest against the financial and political leadership that sold them down the river into the 2nd world...
Do we respond in a similar fashion, or do the Walter Mitty Sobchaks take their version of high caliber cooking pots out into the streets?
nova (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/26/2009 - 9:25 am
So, we drank the "green shoots" cola and ran wild and free! The graceless American consumer has mounted the white stallion of recovery and is riding tall into the green grass that carpets the fields of America.
that's astroturf. we had to sell the real grass to pay off foreign creditors. and the recovery pony has been fitted with a coin slot (it says Made in China). welcome to the plantation.
nova,
the Vietnamese don't have the technology to level mountains for the coal and other commodities... I can understand Giap's concern,
go in Cholon district in Saigon and you'll find generations of people who can't speak Vietnamese! only the very young usually and your go-betweens...
like EHP remarked about Burma, the Chinese are really getting tentacles into the commodity base of their neighbors....
I made this observation before.
In talking to customers most believe in 'green shoots' yet they themselves are not spending freely. Can't have one without the other.
Market up 151 if your not on the Dr. Larry Kudlow express you's don'ts know's what's you's missing's...
Saigon has been a sorta Chinese town for, well, a long time anyway. Bangkok too.
Deng Xiao ping nineteen years ago justified corking the students as a population outflow control measure. A lot of people in the region got. it, and asked no more.
Many 19th cen ancestors of the Chinese in Malaysia went, impoverished, for the tin. They're thinking to go now as a different sort of deal.
Those consumer confidence numbers blasted $2 bucks back onto the price of oil.
It's like you can't win in ponzi world. Everything you say can and will be used against you.
In talking to customers most believe in 'green shoots' yet they themselves are not spending freely. Can't have one without the other.
That's what's interesting about these consumer confidence numbers - they're not being reflected in retail sales in any way (at least judging by the chain store sales data we've gotten over the past few weeks).
Green Shoots sounds cooler than Gerald Ford's W.I.N. Buttons, but instead of wearing hope pinned on your shirt, you look at the ground for inspiration...
Colonial times in Malaya, Burma, the go betweens used to be the Chinese. And the transplanted Indians. Maybe now there are different colonial times coming.
Paging Lucifer. Sorry, guess not.
Lie to yourself or your head will explode.
Duke,
Every little nook & cranny of the world has a pecking order (We bag on the Mexicans, they bag on the Guatemalans, etc.)
What's the pecking order of Asia, top to bottom?
Stock Market is a distraction. Sideshow at best these days.
The long end of the curve keeps creeping up (30 yr at 4.41 now). If this continues it could unravel a lot of Ben's plans.
Using the non-seasonally adjust CS numbers is not an appropriate analysis, the seasonally adjusted CS numbers should be used when comparing price trends to the baseline scenario. I wonder why it is that I am the only one thought to mention that?
I think a good many of the hoi ploy get their recommended daily dose of matters financial when hearing a newsreader on the tv or radio say "There was profit taking and the Dow dropped 86 points" or "Better than expected earnings buoyed the Dow upwards 86 points".
Dow = 30 Pieces of Silver
I don't know if this has been posted here yet, but the link below has the updated Credit Suisse mortgage reset chart.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nH2Jyu86MZI/Shll2fKc-KI/AAAAAAAABzM/faHZtNK9UB4/s1600-h/CreditSuisseResetMarch09.jpg
JD (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/26/2009 - 8:00 am
Using the non-seasonally adjust CS numbers is not an appropriate analysis, the seasonally adjusted CS numbers should be used when comparing price trends to the baseline scenario. I wonder why it is that I am the only one thought to mention that?
Because CSI is a y-o-y measure so by definition it is already SAAR.
Wait chain, that's up a tremendous amount right?
The pecking order?
I thought the Chinese played the role that the Jews did in Europe.
Running the show, depending on the country, are those descended from the colonial masters.
Then the mixed blood.
Then whatever indigneous people - who get to be used and abused.
Strange indeed. Good is good, bad is good, adverse is good, every damn thing no matter what is good. CNBC wouldn't lie to me would they? And no I am not short anything anytime...don't have the stomach for it.
Cubans look down on all other South and Central Americans, but especially Guatemalans. There definitely
a pecking order, but I can't keep it straight.
Trying to fit so many people into the lifeboat of debt that is the USTitanic, can only end up swamping it.
Yacktman funds guy on Bloomie. Bloomie intro's him as outperforming 99% of funds. Yacktman is down 25% in 5 years.
That's some good dope you got there nova!
Fed buys $1.55 billion in Treasurys
No, I think the DOW is just background noise for most Americans. Here is what I think determine the background vibe.
I thought it was April that was coming out, not March.
"I thought the Chinese played the role that the Jews did in Europe."
I'm not touching that one-- there are over 60 million Chinese in the diasphora.
nodhannum
Where did I go wrong?
House prices down in South Fla, just about equal to the DOW.
Actually, JD what the government would like now is G.I.N. Buttons...Get Inflation Now! They would love to inflate their way out of the debts the've incurred.
Yacktman is down 25% in 5 years
But where are the clients' yackts?
are they using the banksters for the confidence? are the powers that be born and bred idiots?
everything is priced in
shakes head