Ah, looks like we have another inflection point. The good news. house prices don't drop down faster than 20%. The bad news is, they're still dropping at 20% year-over-year.
Looking at the Case-Shiller new near record index [pdf] decline it's important to keep in mind it is a first derivative chart. Look at the area under the curve to see how much we've given back. The Mk-VI calibrated eyeball looks like since mid 2007 we've returned to early 2005 prices. Anti-sticky! Also remember because this is a derivative of a index and not a direct measure symmetrical retracement.
Example; baseline 100 and 4 years of 10% increases = 146.1
using 141.1 as the new baseline compound 4 years of 10% declines = 96.1
Well DC area is down an inflation adjusted 34% from peak. House two doors over from me is down 64% from peak. So marginal neighborhoods have fallen much faster, the question is will nicer neighborhoods (where there is more money to be lost) fall just as far only slowly, or are they too closer to bottom than top?
"Home Prices Plunge Almost 20%" -- Headline at Yahoo! Finance.
OT: We need to consider raising taxes and cutting spending. That's the opposite of what got us into this for the last 30 years. Does it ever make sense to increase spending and cut taxes? What were people thinking?
Sadly, there are fatal model deficiencies in CSI. For but one I have no doubt that many transactions at legitimate market prices are being removed because they appear to be so low they are assumed to be not arms length transactions or too soon from last sale record. See the Methodology [pdf] pg 17 for more.
OT: We need to consider raising taxes and cutting spending. That's the opposite of what got us into this for the last 30 years. Does it ever make sense to increase spending and cut taxes? What were people thinking?
Modern economics is a pseudo-scientific front for Marxist ideology.
These people are thinking about spreading their religion around the world, not about what has actually worked in the past.
"Russia: Industry Declines By 16.9 Percent
May 26, 2009
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said May 26 that Russia’s “industry has declined by 16.9 percent,” leading to the unemployment of 2.2 million people, Interfax reported. Putin said the most jobs lost were in the fields of manufacturing, machine building and metallurgy."
Houston, the landing has been delayed, requesting the stress test #2. Please confirm the transmission, stress test # 2 simulation due to uncertain wether conditions?
This is Houston, 10-4.
" OT: We need to consider raising taxes and cutting spending. That's the opposite of what got us into this for the last 30 years. Does it ever make sense to increase spending and cut taxes? What were people thinking?
Modern economics is a pseudo-scientific front for Marxist ideology."
Actually, Marx characterized a state agency that collects taxes as 'the bureau of internal plunder.' However, as the state developed in the SU and other so-called socialist countries, taxes were hidden by transforming them from taxes on income into appropriative low wages.
I know you are trying to raise 5K for the new commenting system but here is my problem,
why would I give a donation to a system where I have no idea how many, if any or if all,
have INVOKED the ignore option on my name?
since, unlike most of you, I have lived under dictatorial or gangster regimes (China, Vietnam, Burma
and now Cambodia) I greatly appreciate freedom of speech even if I happen to disagree - I
take the Oliver Wendell Homes approach - and I live by a policy of never ever excommunicating someone!
Because in the end what makes me so god-like?
Just train your eyeballs a bit better... surfing the Net by now it should be easy to eyeball down (tm)
"since, unlike most of you, I have lived under dictatorial or gangster regimes (China, Vietnam, Burma
and now Cambodia) I greatly appreciate freedom of speech even if I happen to disagree"
Nobody is forcing you to donate.
That said, the freedom from noise is probably just as, if not more important than the freedom of speech. I spent some of my childhood in Germany, and some in the US. People here in the US are clearly affected by the systematic nationalist indoctrination that they're exposed to when young.
fyi... the CR rental market is off 25% here in Phnom Penh ....
I checked with sources in Ho Chi Minh City (still hate that name) and it's the same...
those of you who know Vietnam know where the central highlands are, big battles were waged there at Pleiku, Kontum. etc...
by II Corps...
Now, Hanoi has this idea of moving in these huge Chinese mining operations which would involve thousands of Chinese
workers due to their skill set ... this has created an uproar, even 97 year old General Giap has made statements against the plan, he said the Chinese workers would bring their wives and children and settle and never leave!
That said, the freedom from noise is probably just as, if not more important than the freedom of speech. I spent some of my childhood in Germany, and some in the US. People here in the US are clearly affected by the systematic nationalist indoctrination that they're exposed to when young.
you must be joking!!! unless you spent time in Germany from 1932-45 I don't think fit in under the regimes I mentioned.
If you think that be my guest to move over here, I suggest Hanoi or Beijing... they don't talk about the past even say a year ago....
I agree. To ignore any one will only lead them to pin head thinking. I am sure I ring many ignore buttons! If everyone agrees then no one is thinking!
Yes, indeed, DCD, I do not have you on ignore, nor do I have LBD on ignore, even though I disagree with much of what the latter has to say...I'd rather be challenged than listen to only a like-minded echo chamber (aka, Preaching to the Choir).
Stock market is surging this morning on good consumer confidence numbers. Ned is long MA POT
and GOOG stocks (which keep going up day after day after day)
1:03 PM Small-cap value stocks - to date this year's worst segment - have led the charge in
each of the last five economic recoveries. ETF vehicles include DSV, VBR, PWY, IWN, RZV, JKL
and UVT.
Post early and post often!
Pre-recovery.
I love housing days on CR. so much chart porn to look forward to!
House prices only go down.
This is inflationary, right?
lol. is it me, or is the tiered .xls file password protected on the CS site? http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,4,0,0,0,0,0.html
Ah, looks like we have another inflection point. The good news. house prices don't drop down faster than 20%. The bad news is, they're still dropping at 20% year-over-year.
dafox, it was password protected. I used the SA for these charts (I usually use the NSA). The file is OK now.
Nice job by S&P.
best to all
better than expected.
So much to look forward to around here... BFF (even when it falls on a Thursday), Case-Shiller day, to name a couple.
need to make the tax credit larger and only available for houses above 300K. that'll fix the decline.
Looking at the Case-Shiller new near record index [pdf] decline it's important to keep in mind it is a first derivative chart. Look at the area under the curve to see how much we've given back. The Mk-VI calibrated eyeball looks like since mid 2007 we've returned to early 2005 prices. Anti-sticky! Also remember because this is a derivative of a index and not a direct measure symmetrical retracement.
Example; baseline 100 and 4 years of 10% increases = 146.1
using 141.1 as the new baseline compound 4 years of 10% declines = 96.1
Well DC area is down an inflation adjusted 34% from peak. House two doors over from me is down 64% from peak. So marginal neighborhoods have fallen much faster, the question is will nicer neighborhoods (where there is more money to be lost) fall just as far only slowly, or are they too closer to bottom than top?
I see Unabankers are still hoodwinking people, leaving financial bombs in people's mailboxes in the guise of monthly statements...
It's kind of funny, Ted K was adamantly against high technology, and it's the Unabankers lifeblood~
"Home Prices Plunge Almost 20%" -- Headline at Yahoo! Finance.
OT: We need to consider raising taxes and cutting spending. That's the opposite of what got us into this for the last 30 years. Does it ever make sense to increase spending and cut taxes? What were people thinking?
On the relevance of Spaceballs:
Dark Helmet: What the heck am I looking at?! When does the bottom happen to the housing market?!
Col. Sandurz: Now! You're looking at "the bottom," sir. The housing bottom that happens now is happening "now."
Dark Helmet: What happened to "now?"
Col. Sandurz: We passed it.
Dark Helmet: When?
Col. Sandurz: Just now. We're at the bottom "now."
Dark Helmet: Go back to "then."
Col. Sandurz: When?
Dark Helmet: Now.
Col. Sandurz: Now?!
Dark Helmet: Now!
Col. Sandurz: I can't.
Dark Helmet: Why?
Col. Sandurz: We missed it.
Dark Helmet: When?
Col. Sandurz: Just now.
Dark Helmet: When will "then" be "now?"
Col. Sandurz: Soon.
Dark Helmet: How soon?
To me this suggests severe credit problems and consumer weakness in the future.
House prices only go down.
Sell now or get priced in forever.
Sadly, there are fatal model deficiencies in CSI. For but one I have no doubt that many transactions at legitimate market prices are being removed because they appear to be so low they are assumed to be not arms length transactions or too soon from last sale record. See the Methodology
[pdf] pg 17 for more.
OT: We need to consider raising taxes and cutting spending. That's the opposite of what got us into this for the last 30 years. Does it ever make sense to increase spending and cut taxes? What were people thinking?
Modern economics is a pseudo-scientific front for Marxist ideology.
These people are thinking about spreading their religion around the world, not about what has actually worked in the past.
"Russia: Industry Declines By 16.9 Percent
May 26, 2009
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said May 26 that Russia’s “industry has declined by 16.9 percent,” leading to the unemployment of 2.2 million people, Interfax reported. Putin said the most jobs lost were in the fields of manufacturing, machine building and metallurgy."
That is scary on so many levels pavel...
Houston, the landing has been delayed, requesting the stress test #2. Please confirm the transmission, stress test # 2 simulation due to uncertain wether conditions?
This is Houston, 10-4.
on the second chart doesn't the hockey stick at the end mean an uptick?
... what are they saying on CNBC? I'm not near a TV?
and here again is my paltry entry of a monkey mimicking De Niro in Taxi Driver "you talking to me?"
YouTube -
Just back from a 3 day walk into the back of beyond, on just the other side of nowhere...
" OT: We need to consider raising taxes and cutting spending. That's the opposite of what got us into this for the last 30 years. Does it ever make sense to increase spending and cut taxes? What were people thinking?
Modern economics is a pseudo-scientific front for Marxist ideology."
Actually, Marx characterized a state agency that collects taxes as 'the bureau of internal plunder.' However, as the state developed in the SU and other so-called socialist countries, taxes were hidden by transforming them from taxes on income into appropriative low wages.
" Comrade Kristina (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/26/2009 - 9:36 am
That is scary on so many levels pavel..."
Often people in other countries don't know about the abysmal levels of poverty that can exist in Russia, and did exist in the SU.
to CR & Ken Cooper,
I know you are trying to raise 5K for the new commenting system but here is my problem,
why would I give a donation to a system where I have no idea how many, if any or if all,
have INVOKED the ignore option on my name?
since, unlike most of you, I have lived under dictatorial or gangster regimes (China, Vietnam, Burma
and now Cambodia) I greatly appreciate freedom of speech even if I happen to disagree - I
take the Oliver Wendell Homes approach - and I live by a policy of never ever excommunicating someone!
Because in the end what makes me so god-like?
Just train your eyeballs a bit better... surfing the Net by now it should be easy to eyeball down (tm)
Duke, I don't have you on ignore. You have at least one reader.
Duke of Con Dao,
I agree. To ignore any one will only lead them to pin head thinking. I am sure I ring many ignore buttons! If everyone agrees then no one is thinking!
"since, unlike most of you, I have lived under dictatorial or gangster regimes (China, Vietnam, Burma
and now Cambodia) I greatly appreciate freedom of speech even if I happen to disagree"
Nobody is forcing you to donate.
That said, the freedom from noise is probably just as, if not more important than the freedom of speech. I spent some of my childhood in Germany, and some in the US. People here in the US are clearly affected by the systematic nationalist indoctrination that they're exposed to when young.
thanks speed racer!
fyi... the CR rental market is off 25% here in Phnom Penh ....
I checked with sources in Ho Chi Minh City (still hate that name) and it's the same...
those of you who know Vietnam know where the central highlands are, big battles were waged there at Pleiku, Kontum. etc...
by II Corps...
Now, Hanoi has this idea of moving in these huge Chinese mining operations which would involve thousands of Chinese
workers due to their skill set ... this has created an uproar, even 97 year old General Giap has made statements against the plan, he said the Chinese workers would bring their wives and children and settle and never leave!
NateG
That said, the freedom from noise is probably just as, if not more important than the freedom of speech. I spent some of my childhood in Germany, and some in the US. People here in the US are clearly affected by the systematic nationalist indoctrination that they're exposed to when young.
you must be joking!!! unless you spent time in Germany from 1932-45 I don't think fit in under the regimes I mentioned.
If you think that be my guest to move over here, I suggest Hanoi or Beijing... they don't talk about the past even say a year ago....
@Lobbyi$t Ben Dover
Duke of Con Dao,
I agree. To ignore any one will only lead them to pin head thinking. I am sure I ring many ignore buttons! If everyone agrees then no one is thinking!
Yes, indeed, DCD, I do not have you on ignore, nor do I have LBD on ignore, even though I disagree with much of what the latter has to say...I'd rather be challenged than listen to only a like-minded echo chamber (aka, Preaching to the Choir).
"That said, the freedom from noise is probably just as, if not more important than the freedom of speech."
Have you lost your freaking mind?
Stock market is surging this morning on good consumer confidence numbers. Ned is long MA POT
and GOOG stocks (which keep going up day after day after day)
Breaking News: Iamned now allowing free
link submissions for economics, finance, and technical analysis articles from bloghers/websites
Interesting Finance Aticles From News and Bloggers
Financial Crisis is may be over already
1:03 PM Small-cap value stocks - to date this year's worst segment - have led the charge in
each of the last five economic recoveries. ETF vehicles include DSV, VBR, PWY, IWN, RZV, JKL
and UVT.