Let me take care of something so everybody else can relax:
OMG! THE SACRED SENIORITY OF BONDHOLDERS IS BEING VIOLATED!
NOBODY WILL EVER LEND MONEY AGAIN!
HOW CAN THIS HAPPEN WITH HARDLY A TEAR BEING SHED OR A TEABAG BEING WAVED?!?!?? THE JUDGE IS CROOKED! OBAMA IS A FASCIST! OR WORSE, IT'S LIKE A HORRIBLE COMBINATION OF FASCISM AND COMMUNISM AND KRUGMANISM AND TRANSCENDENTALISM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Externalized Costs wrote .... Does section 363 of the bankruptcy code has a sovereign default subsection or are they writing it currently? /snark
I expect it to be an Undeclared yet Defacto Soveriegn Default....basically extended negotiations to restructure public debt obligations to China, Japan, Oil Oligarchs, etc. But with an actual cool new name, just like we use "Collateral Damage" for civilians deaths, and "Quantitative Easing" for feeding $$s to banks.
We should have a contest in blogdom for the name likely to be conjured up by whoever the Head Financial Sorcerer is at that future time.
Those with money prolly have the brains to buy a well built car that will last.
Yep, who indeed. GM volt due in 2011 is going to cost 40,000, how will they compete against Ford and every one else that will have cars ready in 2010 at 20,000.
Bonds are for rich people. Working shit jobs is for poor people.
Future List for Deciding if Citizen is an Enemy of the Peoples State
Did you work, or any of your family, work for, or as; In the financial industry? If the person answers yes; determine salary. If salary was less than $75,000 proceed to question 2. If salary was greater than hold for transfer to a secure facility. See supervisor for $50-75 range for possible reeducation.
Did you work for any corporation in that made over 2 billion per year? Ask for company name and input. For a match - see 1. If no match; continue.
Did you or any member belong to any of the following subversive prganizations? NRA; GOP; Ask them for any other otganizations. If member of approved list run check for current status and release.
I was mortgage-pigged and didn't even know it...
re: Retirement, Unemployment Cushion http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/9893/netassets.png http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/1204/trois.png
edit: Those net assets are based on the means of each age group. That allowed me to factor in the % of households with no assets, or no debt. It is from the 2007 Survey of American Household Finances. Is made up from
financial + non-financial assets - debt
...
should add that those charts are from 2007, the peak. You can household financial and non-financial assets 40-60% to get them up to date. That's what brings things down to the point of never retiring
edit: I'll produce that chart another day when I have some slack time. Any suggestions on what haircuts are realistic for the mean on financial and non-financial assets?
--"At one time, unions where needed and they did help fix some major problems with wage levels and more importantly work safety and basic standards that meant you might survive your work.
I boil it down to, would you like to see the military unionised? "
Would you like to see it privatized? Look at your first sentence with "At one time Glass/Steagall was needed...
Reuters May 1, 2012 Today the Michigan Peoples Party (MPP) announced that it now controlled 3 counties surounding the city formerly known as Detroit. A representative for the MPP said "We are not leaving the United States. We seek to provide basic food and medical care for the people who have been abandoned by the Federal Government. We will work to assure the security of the people of our terroritory. We do not seek confrontation with the Federal Government."
A Federal Government spokesperson who perferred to remain clueless said "We will look into the matter. We understand their pain and we plan to reach out to them."
The great thing about bankruptcy court compared to the backroom reorganizations done with the banks, is that everything will come out in the wash.
If the judge screws up, it will go up on appeal. If the appellate court screws up, it will go up to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court can't screw up because the law is whatever they say it is, just like Bush v. Gore.
But at least we'll know what happened and have a pretty good paper trail as to why it happened. Then congress can change the law (if the bankers and insurance companies tell them to).
As far as lenders never lending again, they always say that. Then as soon as they have another million dollars in their pockets they tweak their loan covenants a little and go out looking for borrowers. They don't have a choice. Once somebody has been a banker they can't go back to real work.
re: unions
There can be good unions and bad unions, a lot of it has to do with the power structure. What the system is set up to deliver. A union is neither good nor bad. Just like a friend is neither good nor bad. Just like a competitor is neither good nor bad.
If you want to see where unions and employers work together to reach common goals, see most of Germany. If you want to see where entrenched sides of unions and employers work against each other, see ________( choose whatever negative example you like)
Reuters May 3, 2012: A mysterious explosion today at the MPP headquarters in Flint killed over 60 people who were attending a meeting on drafting the parties platform for 2014. Federal officals who investigated the grisly scene believe it was the act of terrorists. A spokesperson for Homeland Security said "We will investigate this using all our resources. They may have been subversives but the President believes they had the right to assemble." Bystanders reported seeing a black helocopteer and a flash of fire about 12 miles from the incident. Federal authorities deny any connection.
There can be good unions and bad unions, a lot of it has to do with the power structure.
EHP, relating to the California experience, when you have cops, prison guards and school principals making $130-$160k/year, PLUS massive benefit packages, including what are essentially payments for life long after work has ended, then perhaps something is wrong, not with the unions, but with the power structure.
I have a 2007 Saturn Vue which I like a lot... You could probably find a used one in the mid teens at least, maybe less... Mine is not the hybrid - it has the 6 cyl Honda engine and All Wheel Drive.... very snappy and it will go off road lightly but it is not a rock crawler...
A mysterious explosion today at the MPP headquarters in Flint killed over 60 people who were attending a meeting on drafting the parties platform for 2014.
what part of that post is snark, and which is humor
Camera pans in: Subject is white male, earlier forties, rugged handsome but bad teeth.
Muffin: So how do you feel about the permanent closure of your plant?
Dazed: Well, I had hoped for better things. Ever since I came back from my 4th tour in the 'Stan with the Guard I just don't understand how this country works anymore...
Muffin: We the people of America certainly appreciate your devotion to duty and country. Do you have any plans?
Dazed: Uh, well no. I lost my leg on the last tour so I am kind of disabled...
Muffin: Well, thanks a lot!
Note to Muffin: Remember to smile with hint of warmth...
Privatise or unionize the military? In a weird horrid way it already is. Many many many are there for the paycheck/bennies/education. I was in the army and many then were there for the same things. It was not a calling, an obligation or duty of citizen, or done for love. DINERO baybee. Perhaps it is worse in a way than being privatized. At least a CEO and mission statement and bottomline thinking would have a check on behaviour.
I think MP mentioned in an earlier post something about this. I meant to respond, but had no time.
this is not a WWII army made up of all classes and all fighting for the defense of the homefront and draft. This is pretty much a job, and like all jobs they will behave that way. hahaha I listen to some people in other places comment that no military person would fire if so ordered against us citizens, there would be a revolt etc etc and i giggle. They are jobified and if ordered most would, cuz, y'know, its the JOB.
nova --
Bonds are for rich people. Working shit jobs is for poor people.
Future List for Deciding if Citizen is an Enemy of the Peoples State
A history of the world?
Q - Job - Gladiator
Q - Did you kill this week? - No
Q - Did you try to kill this week? - Yes.
Q - Will you try to kill next week? - Yes,
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/25/2009 - 4:53 pm
should add that those charts are from 2007, the peak. You can household financial and non-financial assets 40-60% to get them up to date. That's what brings things down to the point of never retiring
edit: I'll produce that chart another day when I have some slack time. Any suggestions on what haircuts are realistic for the mean on financial and non-financial assets?
EHP, I would use some sort of sliding scale to factor in losses. Consider the most "aggressive" (<35) category at least 30% (I'd say more like 40-50%) losses and slide up to a generous 20-25% at prime retirement age, then very little for retirees. I think the mean will be really distorted here because losses will NOT be evenly distributed among all age groups thanks to common strategies in retirement plans.
What is the actual number (mean over the timeframe) on the <35 category in that second graphic, top chart? Rough numbers are fine, it's just so low... do we even hit $10k in financial assets? Good lord. Talk about young and stupid.
albrt pokes fun at the idea that capital holders will take their ball and go home. I am far from sanguine in thinking it hasn't already happened. The punishing of any government that has defaulted on their bonds has been swift . The IMF has one overarching goal when it bails out a government and that is to ensure repayment. The terms are never pretty and the suffering is measurable. The IMF using the US guided methods against the US would give me a laughing fit which would quickly be curtailed by the fires from the ensuing riots.
The other good point I read from a previous post is that the entire world is enmeshed in this web of globalization and will sink or swim together. I'm not sure I subscribe to that theory but if it is the case then the average citizen is in for a very rough ride going forward. The tide that was supposed to raise all boats somehow managed to sink most of the fleet.
burnside (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/25/2009 - 3:09 pm
S/Z - depends on whether you were educated in US or UK. But you knew that.
We're not all from California.
ova (profile)
Note to Muffin: Remember to smile with hint of warmth...
- EDIT -
Give a hug and remember to thank them. (OK, that was my breakdown of Obama's memorial day speech).
Personally, if I did that I would loose every tooth in my mouth.
I buy them a drink and kick their ass for forgetting to duck.
Reuters April 7, 2015 First Lady Michelle Obama was in New York demonstrating the new home gardening system that will run on grey water and provide a nutrious supplement to millions of Americans. The system is assembled in America and will be shipped free of charge to everyone who made under $12,000 New Dollars or less last year. When asked the First Lady said "I know many, well most, well 95% is hurting, and I think this, as part of my husbands comprehensive program to guarantee every American 2000 calories a day will go a long way to reversing the tide of apathy."
GM volt due in 2011 is going to cost 40,000, how will they compete against Ford and every one else that will have cars ready in 2010 at 20,000.
I'll tell you how. By funneling billions into their financing arm, GMAC. Last week, GMAC got another 7.5 billion so they can do more subprime 0% loans for Chrysler cars. I expect GMAC to receive another multi-billion dollar infusion to continue subprime financing of GM cars. Ford is carrying $154 billion in long term debt and can't finance as many cars as the U.S. government. I expect Ford to BK within a year.
My current POS is a 97 SL2, I have had enough fun with those, time to try something else. Thanks though, the VUE does look nice, I'm just a little disappointed.
albrt: the S. Ct is still allowing reporters in and publishing decisions with their holdings but absolutely no cameras (not a valid concern for a lowly trial court). Despite Bush v. Gore, I try to keep a little faith...
I am pretty sure you are, or at least I hope you are.
When was the last time you talked to someone on active duty?
It might help to remind you that there are people still out there willing to serve, and it is not all about the money baby.
My current POS is a 97 SL2, I have had enough fun with those, time to try something else. Thanks though, the VUE does look nice, I'm just a little disappointed.
Check out a 2007/2008 Taurus (the new full-size version). I've had a few as rentals and have been surprised. They are very good cars, way better than the Sonatas and Camrys that I normally get. You should have no problem finding one for less than $22k with fairly low miles. If you want something for carrying cargo, look at the Taurus X - it's like a tall station wagon, not quite minivan/crossover. It's is another really really good car that almost nobody knows exists.
Today Fairfax County announced the new "Teachers Assistance Plan." The program, called TAP, is part of the new plan to enable teachers the ability to concentrate on teaching. All students enrolled in TAP will be responsible for bringing in all of their supplies; pay a knowledge gratuity of $25 per week; and sign up for the mandantory lunch program. The county, contrary to rumors will not provide a base grade of a C to all students partcipating.
For those students not partcipating, and due to budget constraints, those who can not, or will not fund their educations will be slotted in the new "Kids in Kontrol" KIK program. This program will provide quality education using the old FEMA trailors on the former Lacrosse field. Fairfax County remains commited to providing everyone with the best educational experience possible.
ShadowInventory (profile) -Oh well there are probably better vehicles but you said under 22k right?
Thanks, I have been pulling up to mom and pop service stations, (The few left and asking the same question). The bad news is all of their answers are non-US.
Chicago Dude -
Check out a 2007/2008 Taurus (the new full-size version).
Strange, all of my friend that own them love them.
I just follow the general rule that for every thousand, I wait a month to buy. Around 2 years I decided I needed a new car, 4 years ago I decided I need a needed a single family home. I'm still waiting to see value in either options.
Sarge: All right! Listen up. We have been assigned CAP (Civilian Assistance Program).
collective groan
Sarge: You know the drill. Once we clear the secure zone and pass the first checkpoint at Shady Oakes Estates I want everyone, and that includes you Miss Sarah, to be awake, alert and ready to help your fellow citizens!
Sarah: whispers to Abdul "God when is going to forget about it?"
Abdul: "Never, unless you give her a little taste."
Sarah: "EUUUwww, well maybe."
Sarge: Yes Corporal Whitmann?"
Corporal: What is our objective Sarge?"
Sarge: We are dumping MRE's at Riverside Elementary.
Sarge: Remember People -cut ... - watch for pirates...
I think it it will be more like-
"Cattle prods on low you twisted SOBS, And if I see anyone stunning an old lady I'll have a piece of your dried A$$ to write to my wife. And remember only one litre of water per person, I don't care about the stories of how many people are at home."
Deal with it, oh I mean don't worry, buy bank stocks.
I completely agree that other countries ought to be afraid of US default, or de facto default through inflation. I don't know whether they will stop lending or not.
But US bankers and bond investors threatening to stop lending because they lost a bankruptcy case just doesn't wash. Note that very few people with major capital at stake are even making these kinds of threats. Anybody who has been around for more than one cycle knows this has happened over and over. Donald Trump made it his life's work to screw lenders, but somehow they keep lending him money.
The bankers need the system more than the other parts of the system need the bankers. Thus the TARP creditors suddenly withdrawing their objections. So you are right, the real threat is that the taxpayers who are the source of TARP will dry up. Chinese taxpayers, that is.
The UAW has a ton to do with GM's (and the other two) failure. GM can not support a gold card retirement at a ratio of 3 retirees to 1 worker. After downsizing it will probably rise more. The UAW did not make the required concessions for survival. The main problem remains. Delphi in a real honest BK was allowed to unload White collar retirees Medical of on the government. Not the union retirees. The UAW is mad at GM announcement that they will close more NA plants and import more cars. They also continue to invest in a growing markets like China. Survival is not going to work with the UAW but work away from them. The UAW owns a country club and golf course that looses over a million dollars a year. Show they either can't handle money or they are good at extortion. Bottom line is very bleak future in Detroit. Say good bye to the American auto industry.
"We understand their pain and we plan to reach out to them." --nova's g-man
MPP (anonymous source from website subscribed by 950 million IP addresses worldwide): "We have plans to be ready for that reach and are in talks with other People's Committees, Parties, and even Republics, to be named later. We would like to go on record as stating that we do not believe the Flint incident was the result of a direct written order from President Palin. We are committed to maintaining 100% monitoring of all Federal digital communication, in accordance with our operating charter. We continue to retool idle plants for production of the solar-electric personal armored mobile home...".
Actually it kind of sucked, Been there, done that type thing as a 14 year old kid after a hurricane dealing with my friends.
After that it's easier with strangers. As long as your not setting the rules, you just play by them because you have to, and some people may be shocked what people will do in that nasty play ground.
Which is why I'm very concerned with how quickly rules are changing now, and no one is really looking in the rear view mirror at the road kill. Oh, well its all good right?
I completely agree that other countries ought to be afraid of US default, or de facto default through inflation. I don't know whether they will stop lending or not.
Maybe I'm just dense, but why would I play poker with someone who changes the rules of the game mid-hand? No really, Would you?
China can not stop just to keep feeding the pigs eating the dragons "S...", but they are not stupid and are moving their major focus on commodities, and internal development. I'm pretty dense and that what is what I would do. OK, I don't have that much money but I wish I did.
Rob Dawg writes: The problem with all this talk about dismantling Prop 13 is the assumption that it would result in more State revenue. California is already very highly taxed in every category including property taxes. California has proven that there is a limit to taxation.
The fear is that without true reform of the political and tax systems, California could go "Detroit". Check out these tax rates on homes worth about $70K (according to Cyberhomes, and almost certainly a fantasy if you were to try to sell them.) $5-7K/year tax bills on $70K homes!
(Unless, like the good Councilwoman owning the home discussed in the above link, your home was lucky enough to have been "hit be a tornado, leaving an empty lot", so that your tax bill was now $68/year. But that's another story...)
And if you think no city in its right mind would keep increasing tax rates while its economy kept sinking, check this historical chart showing rates from 1965 to 2009. Taxes have more than doubled. Non-homestead property rates are now over 8% of the value of the property, per year. (Current Prop 13 cap is 1% of assessed value for reference.)
I think California's tax system, including Prop 13, needs major reform, but so long as "reform" is a code work for "more revenue", then I'm not convinced we're going to be getting any real reform.
ResistanceIsFeudal
I just erased a long post that was going to show the mean net worth by age of household group using actual data, but I think it's more work than I want to do. Like for any series that represents the actual performance of an asset class. The time periods of the data needs to match or I need to write a script to make them sync. There are chunks of assets with no good index. Bonds had very different performance depending on quality. Should it reflect the mean incomes of the group, what about population weighting. I just kind of want to make a comprehensive animated surface plot. Right now I can't think of a elegant way to do it. It has to be of narrow focus, or it has to be rough in approximation. So because of that I don't see what I would learn. The only way it is worthwhile if you build a comprehensive bottom up model that has estimates of future performance (eg a random walk), and then look at where the sub zero net worth begins under those assumptions. Probably more worth the effort to look at the correlation between increase in debt and increase in incomes or something else
I know a bit about "ordinary men" and how heads can twisted. All social engineering is preceded by verbal engineering. If the MSM starts to villify a group of people for being "different" than I know we are on the road to smoking chimneys. That is a group of citizens inside the US. Outside the US it is just a run up to war.
The FT article did a good job of pointing out how the investors in Chrysler and GM are different. I'm not sure the companies should be treated differently. It is astounding how much sympathy is playing into the decision of what to do with these companies. We do not have sympathy for a hedge fund, therefore its investors should get screwed. We do have sympathy for people on assembly lines.
The idea that a judge would actually ratify the president's decision to hand a major corporation to one of his special interest groups absolutely disgusts me.
EHP, that would have been interesting just to look at. I think at times Blogs have become so rigid that people are afraid to put up the data as they see it and just say "WTF" do you think, and then move from there.
Maybe I just take my "No Fear" tee's too seriously. but really if anyone really has a handle on what is going on, they are charging mega bucks for it, I prefer to think that no-none has a clue and we just need to deal with it.
I think there is major disconnect. The road from post-industrial to new age green sounds great. The problem is getting there. As in what are we going to do in the "mean time." It will truly be a "mean time" if the aristocracy of finance does not move from stripping the corpse to creating a new nag they can ride to the Hamptons.
"The idea that a judge would actually ratify the president's decision to hand a major corporation to one of his special interest groups absolutely disgusts me."
I assume the judge was hand picked just like the team who oversaw the organization of the BK. Truly smells.
"I think California's tax system, including Prop 13, needs major reform.........."
......I think I remember voting FOR Prop 13 many years ago. It doesn't need reform, the legislators need to learn the basics - like how to balance a checkbook. Then we can progress to more advanced subjects like "Mental Exercises for a Working Brain" ......
is it politically still important for Obama to allow the GM and Chrysler bond failures to make the ultimate statement regarding the sacred US Treasury Market?
to load xls files into postgres, i just use a perl xls to csv converter. no need to reinvent the wheel. however, the scf worksheets don't really have a reliable field/column standards.
someone needs the fed to export using xml or something of the sort.
"The idea that a judge would actually ratify the president's decision to hand a major corporation to one of his special interest groups absolutely disgusts me."
OK, so did you put together a competing bid for the New Chrysler?
Hmm, looks like nobody else did either. Wonder why. Could it be because the damn company isn't worth anything without a massive government subsidy? No, it must be because the system is rigged against rich people. Bummer.
Why can't bond holders be satisfied with the the trillions in bailouts they are getting under the table? Why is it so unfair that somebody else should get a subsidy that is a tiny fraction of the investor bailout subsidies?
I know a bit about "ordinary men" and how heads can twisted. All social engineering is preceded by verbal engineering. If the MSM starts to villify a group of people for being "different" than I know we are on the road to smoking chimneys. That is a group of citizens inside the US. Outside the US it is just a run up to war.
Very true, I just realize / hope that the average American/a see's through it.
Maybe I trust / wish too much. It can work for a little while, and if I remember my history enough things whipsaw every 8-14 years (short term) and I remember the same "issues" in the early 80's.
But this time is so much more extreme, "the ordinary 'person' " still has not seen it, it will take more time until people realize how bad things are for them.
Now for me, been there, done that, I think only major flood or hurricane victims in the US, have a real clue what is coming. Only they get a couple of days warning, right now... I don't know, it might be a "what where you thinking about" moment, or it can go the way the numbers look like.
In any case if I could I would be stocking up on real things I will need in the next few years.
Kauai_Kahuna
It's partly the work involved, and partly you know what the result is before you begin. Would like to do it as a real stress test, like what declines can a household sustain before it is hopelessly insolvent. Just don't have a good way of doing it that doesn't take the freedom to interpret away from the viewer.
Basel Too,
thanks, just curious. getting data in csv is never a problem but just wondered if there was a common tool with a GUI to facilitate oddly formatted excel files for db entry. As for the db itself, I guess I'm curious as to what other people use. I don't find the effort in setting one up if the dataset isn't huge, or I'm not going to use it more than once or twice.
Forty and probably not a dime saved, I don't have any sympathy for these folks in this spot. It was a job, they didn't get adopted.
Once you get past that - what do you have? Is it a good thing for him to be starving and living in a tent for Society? If he goes to jail, who pays? If he jerks you out of your BMW at a traffic light and kicks your ass because he sees you as a dick head?
I remember one time I got in a disagreement with a BMW driving, nice suit wearing asshole. I was wearing jeans, boots, and a t-shirt. My friend asked me "What if he kicked your ass?" My reply was "Even if I lost he was going to lose more."
EHP - I just hang out here for that off the cuff, gut feeling analysis.
I can't get enough of it.
I live in Hawaii which is so whacked, but somehow reality still does not matter here. I truly need every anchor I can find.
Kauai_Kahuna, can you give us a thumbnail sketch of how Hawaii is being affected? (RE prices and turnover and inventory, unemployment, anecdotal early indicators...)
i only now postgresql/perl, but it does the job for informal data manipulation. with really standardized data sets, i can automatically generate most of the DB tables via perl script simply by parsing the data itself.
Oh, CC, you mean real productive companies are competing for funds with the US government. Guess who has the printing press and who doesn't. We are so flocked!
PostgreSQL is really the best open source database available today, though MySQL is currently more popular. Exporting data as tab separated can sometimes be easier than CSV if you have fields like addresses that often contain commas. PostgreSQL imports/exports tab separated natively. Both PostgreSQL and MySQL have nice PHP web front ends that make it easy to search/browse/edit data. Very often, I find that data sets need some clean up before they can be imported.
EHP,
I'm a UNIX guy, so may I recommend MySQL as a database and all the free GUI tools that go with it. They have a great web site, and ton's of "Learning SQL" stuff. To be honest it gives me a headache and I would prefer to work in perl to get what I want, but sometime you just can't beat a free SQL database with free tools, BTW, works great with M$.
Of course the company was bought by SUN, who I think is being bought also, but its a great start.
Once Geithner passes his new CDS regulations, bondholders can conveniently buy new standardized CDS "insurance", and problem solved! Heck, perhaps we should make it MANDATORY to buy this insurance (like no-fault auto insurance) when buying a bond: think of how STABLE our economy would be with that EXTRA LAYER OF PROTECTION built in!
Counterparty risk you say? NO PROBLEMO! Geithner's bill is written to ENSURE that only the BIGGEST BADDEST (I meant that in a GOOD way) BANKS will be allowed to dominate the new CDS trade. WIN WIN all around, I say!
So, problem with Moral Hazard? INSURE AGAINST IT!
(This ad paid for by the Committee for the Promotion of the Next Big Financial Innovation, LLC, Caymen Islands. That's all you need to know.)
Doesn't really matter what state these kind of ad piss me off. We got one right now with a Hollywood actor posing as a rural farmer bad mouthing big oil and praising wind energy. Not an ounce of fact in the ad either. Irresponsible but seems to work now days. Just pound it in their heads.
patientrenter - Really need to check out, but an honest question deserves a response. In short right now its denial - and not the river in Egypt.
In a nut shell, the general rule of thumb is we lag OC - Cal, by around 1-3 years, right now I would say we are lagging around 2.5 years in both real estate, jobs, etc.
The economy is more or less one legged on tourism, which has only lately taken a good dive that can not be hidden by the state reports, the AG. and Military minor legs are taking major hits, for the military it is cuts and deployments. AG it is just the overall economy catching up, no one wants to pay the high price that growing in the US entails.
Hawaii has always suffered from boom and bust, but most people do not listen to their kapuna / elders, resulting in not only repeating history, but improving on it.
PostgreSQL, MySQL, ... I like IBM Cloudscape/Apache Derby/Java DB. I prefer to program in Java or C if I do, which isn't much at all recently. If I need to parse data with a script, I ought to relearn Python. I just wanted to make a 3d bar chart with varying transparency. Once I figure out what I can plot as an animated 3d surface, I'll do that.
the california debt crisis is solved by a massive upgrade of home facilities for the military complex in Southern and Central California.....liquified natural gas is coming....you've been warned too many times about the oil situation.
Barry Haig: Im in Control here.
Alexander Obama: By rationing caloric intake of 2000 calories a day, we can cap the price of food at the Mcdonalds, globally.
Not going to get into a debate on this, both are very good for an average user, review the documentation and pick what you can understand and work with.
Personally for me "SQL=Headache" AND "Workstress" != "FUN" JOIN table WTF/AM.I.DOING.HERE BY GIRLFRIENDS.NOT.TALKING.TO.ME.
SQL guys, please check the syntax and you will understand why.
Having done a fair bit of Perl, PHP, and Python, I can highly recommend Ruby over any other scripting language. It is really beautiful. I am going almost all new applications in Ruby on Rails with PostgreSQL as the back end. Even you don't want to deal with the high learning curve of Rails, Ruby is really nice on its own.
"So, what comes after "post-modernism" anyway ...?"
Every generation thinks of itself as 'modern.' Thirty years later they bore everyone but the retro enthusiasts. The Woodstock generation was modern. Flappers were modern. Gibson girls were modern. Regency blades like Beau Brummel were modern. The swells of 1840 were post-modern. It's a way of attracting attention, but the peacock's feathers grow dusty, and the hens loose interest.
EvilHenryPaulson - I like IBM Cloudscape/Apache Derby/Java DB. I prefer to program in Java or C
Java = Security hole very week.
Apache = Security hole very other week.
IBM = "Who hell would bother".
Now your saying something that I will listen to.
PERL = OK, now we are talking.
Capitalism: Payout based on priority of debt.
Socialism: Payout based on social good.
Communism: Payout based on party affiliation.
Where are we headed?
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/25/2009 - 6:11 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal
How did you load .xls data into a db and what db did you use for playing with the data?
Sorry for the delay in responding... for such a seemingly easy task it is surprising how difficult they make things (probably to bulk up the revenues of the middleware / ETL industry) for automating data loads. I like M$ SQL2000's tools, especially DTS, in terms of utility, and it is very straightforward to use. You can also get them for free as well as the old MSDE which is SQL server 2000 with user limits on concurrency. For pure analysis that isn't needing multiuser and concurrency/security features, performance-wise you can't beat SQLite in my opinion. It integrates extremely well with most open source languages. For serious data mauling I find perl matchless, and it's easy to make it fairly platform independent. I did it in M$ with a view towards having access to the tools I use for work, namely OLAP cubes and SQL Analysis Services, but didn't get that far and wasn't going to devote large amounts of time to it for obvious reasons Anyway, it looks like others have given more than sufficient commentary. All I will say (DBMS choice is somewhat akin to religion choices in my opinion/experience!) is that I find little advantage in full-blown DBMS for one-man analysis projects that don't require dynamic data or warehousing/auditing, unless there are sufficient support tools already made to work with the data. I use what I know and most of the time get annoyed with query tools and end up back in SQL or beating my head against MDX occasionally.
For a suggestion from left field, check out Pipeline Pilot, a data analysis and integration tool I've used as a scientist for a lot of cool analysis jobs. (Disclaimer: I founded the company that originally wrote the software, though I have no current affiliation with them [indeed, I was all but fired, but that is another story!])
As a scientist, I got irritated at how difficult it was to process and do repetitive experiments with data that was scattered through databases, excel spreadsheets, and websites. This allowed me to automate the grungy parts and focus on repeating the experiments, slightly changing the conditions, without having to pre-merge and cleanup all the data sources.
Write me at drogers at unterhund dot com and I'll give you my views of the strengths/weaknesses of the data pipelining approach; but after reviewing (and with no insult intended to broward), I almost barfed at the suggestion of having to use the overcomplex DB-centric "aquafold" interface. Working with large data sets should be a pleasure, not painful.
All bondholders around the world are watching.
More auto news?
"Personally my retire plan is to be a dirty old man."
Mine, too.
If only the Boomers hadn't ruined sex, too, with rampant STDs.
But who will buy their cars? Those with money prolly have the brains to buy a well built car that will last.
Those with money prolly have the brains to buy a well built car that will last.
the government has your money; does that still count?
The US government is test driving the consequences of default by using the auto companies. Now they will watch the ripples and see the reactions.
Does section 363 of the bankruptcy code has a sovereign default subsection or are they writing it currently? /snark
Let me take care of something so everybody else can relax:
OMG! THE SACRED SENIORITY OF BONDHOLDERS IS BEING VIOLATED!
NOBODY WILL EVER LEND MONEY AGAIN!
HOW CAN THIS HAPPEN WITH HARDLY A TEAR BEING SHED OR A TEABAG BEING WAVED?!?!?? THE JUDGE IS CROOKED! OBAMA IS A FASCIST! OR WORSE, IT'S LIKE A HORRIBLE COMBINATION OF FASCISM AND COMMUNISM AND KRUGMANISM AND TRANSCENDENTALISM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Feel better now?
Rule of Law! Rule of Law! (straight from the WSJ opinion page).
What "albrt" said.
The administration thinks of the Chrysler BK as practice. I think of it as a trick that only works once.
Behold! The surgical precision!
Externalized Costs wrote .... Does section 363 of the bankruptcy code has a sovereign default subsection or are they writing it currently? /snark
I expect it to be an Undeclared yet Defacto Soveriegn Default....basically extended negotiations to restructure public debt obligations to China, Japan, Oil Oligarchs, etc. But with an actual cool new name, just like we use "Collateral Damage" for civilians deaths, and "Quantitative Easing" for feeding $$s to banks.
We should have a contest in blogdom for the name likely to be conjured up by whoever the Head Financial Sorcerer is at that future time.
As usual I'm a little confused by all this high finance stuff reported in the FT.
Supposedly, GM has offered its bondholders 10% of the new company in exchange for cancelation of debt.
Supposedly, GM has offered the unions 39% of the new company in exchange for cancelation of its claims.
Supposedly, the U.S. governement is willing to cancel its loan for a 50% position in the new company
Why would stock of the old GM still be quoted at more than a fraction of a cent?
They need to wrap-up Chrysler this week so that Judge Gonzalez will be available to greet GM's bondholders.
Feel better now?
Thanks for the laugh
Those with money prolly have the brains to buy a well built car that will last.
Yep, who indeed. GM volt due in 2011 is going to cost 40,000, how will they compete against Ford and every one else that will have cars ready in 2010 at 20,000.
Bonds are for rich people. Working shit jobs is for poor people.
Future List for Deciding if Citizen is an Enemy of the Peoples State
Krugman is still a talking dumb ass.
I was mortgage-pigged and didn't even know it...
re: Retirement, Unemployment Cushion
http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/9893/netassets.png
http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/1204/trois.png
edit: Those net assets are based on the means of each age group. That allowed me to factor in the % of households with no assets, or no debt. It is from the 2007 Survey of American Household Finances. Is made up from
financial + non-financial assets - debt
...
should add that those charts are from 2007, the peak. You can household financial and non-financial assets 40-60% to get them up to date. That's what brings things down to the point of never retiring
edit: I'll produce that chart another day when I have some slack time. Any suggestions on what haircuts are realistic for the mean on financial and non-financial assets?
Now shooting a potato cannon at efigy of Krugman.
Refreshingly cathartic!
Nova what part of that post is snark, and which is humor ,and which is stated with a sigh of resignation over its inevitability?
nova, great fantasy, but there will never be a People's Republic of America.
Those who are in control will stay in control and will keep things together as best they can.
If that fails, they'll kill all of us.
--"At one time, unions where needed and they did help fix some major problems with wage levels and more importantly work safety and basic standards that meant you might survive your work.
I boil it down to, would you like to see the military unionised? "
Would you like to see it privatized? Look at your first sentence with "At one time Glass/Steagall was needed...
@albrt - snork, thanks!
EHP, was the that 2004 survey or the 2007 survey?
Reuters May 1, 2012 Today the Michigan Peoples Party (MPP) announced that it now controlled 3 counties surounding the city formerly known as Detroit. A representative for the MPP said "We are not leaving the United States. We seek to provide basic food and medical care for the people who have been abandoned by the Federal Government. We will work to assure the security of the people of our terroritory. We do not seek confrontation with the Federal Government."
A Federal Government spokesperson who perferred to remain clueless said "We will look into the matter. We understand their pain and we plan to reach out to them."
The great thing about bankruptcy court compared to the backroom reorganizations done with the banks, is that everything will come out in the wash.
If the judge screws up, it will go up on appeal. If the appellate court screws up, it will go up to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court can't screw up because the law is whatever they say it is, just like Bush v. Gore.
But at least we'll know what happened and have a pretty good paper trail as to why it happened. Then congress can change the law (if the bankers and insurance companies tell them to).
As far as lenders never lending again, they always say that. Then as soon as they have another million dollars in their pockets they tweak their loan covenants a little and go out looking for borrowers. They don't have a choice. Once somebody has been a banker they can't go back to real work.
"I boil it down to, would you like to see the military unionised? ""
Would you like to see it privatized?
Um...didn't we just try that with CACI, Blackwater, et al? I believe it was significantly more expensive and not well under our control.
re: unions
There can be good unions and bad unions, a lot of it has to do with the power structure. What the system is set up to deliver. A union is neither good nor bad. Just like a friend is neither good nor bad. Just like a competitor is neither good nor bad.
If you want to see where unions and employers work together to reach common goals, see most of Germany. If you want to see where entrenched sides of unions and employers work against each other, see ________( choose whatever negative example you like)
I hate "talking point" viruses
Avl Dao
It is from the entire history of those surveys, 1989-2007
Reuters May 3, 2012: A mysterious explosion today at the MPP headquarters in Flint killed over 60 people who were attending a meeting on drafting the parties platform for 2014. Federal officals who investigated the grisly scene believe it was the act of terrorists. A spokesperson for Homeland Security said "We will investigate this using all our resources. They may have been subversives but the President believes they had the right to assemble." Bystanders reported seeing a black helocopteer and a flash of fire about 12 miles from the incident. Federal authorities deny any connection.
.......Toyota mulls giving GM hybrid help / Said ready to share key technology..........
....... http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/business/20090525TDY01304.htm
There can be good unions and bad unions, a lot of it has to do with the power structure.
EHP, relating to the California experience, when you have cops, prison guards and school principals making $130-$160k/year, PLUS massive benefit packages, including what are essentially payments for life long after work has ended, then perhaps something is wrong, not with the unions, but with the power structure.
Avl, I don't know anymore. For me it is all one big angry sigh.
since when is "unionised" and "stabilised" spelled with S'es?
......how about Z's......
"stabilized" and "unionized"
.......sorry, my aged Mother just called me about this..........
dr munch -
Those with money probably have the brains to buy a well built car that will last.
OK - Any suggestions. My curennt POS needs to become my beach car. But everything I look at SUCKS, or is overpriced. Any good cars <22K out there?
broward
"Personally my retirement plan is to be a dirty old man."
Mine, too.
If only the Boomers hadn't ruined sex, too, with rampant STDs.
--
At least I'm not the only one. Now I just need to be able to afford it.
I have a 2007 Saturn Vue which I like a lot... You could probably find a used one in the mid teens at least, maybe less... Mine is not the hybrid - it has the 6 cyl Honda engine and All Wheel Drive.... very snappy and it will go off road lightly but it is not a rock crawler...
albrt --
Let me take care of something so everybody else can relax:
OMG! --
Feel better now?
Ahhh, No.
If that fails, they'll kill all of us.
A mysterious explosion today at the MPP headquarters in Flint killed over 60 people who were attending a meeting on drafting the parties platform for 2014.
what part of that post is snark, and which is humor
Camera pans in: Subject is white male, earlier forties, rugged handsome but bad teeth.
Muffin: So how do you feel about the permanent closure of your plant?
Dazed: Well, I had hoped for better things. Ever since I came back from my 4th tour in the 'Stan with the Guard I just don't understand how this country works anymore...
Muffin: We the people of America certainly appreciate your devotion to duty and country. Do you have any plans?
Dazed: Uh, well no. I lost my leg on the last tour so I am kind of disabled...
Muffin: Well, thanks a lot!
Note to Muffin: Remember to smile with hint of warmth...
since when is "unionised" and "stabilised" spelled with S'es?
BSR, it's a disease that particularly afflicts those who read the Financial Times
BSR,
S/Z - depends on whether you were educated in US or UK. But you knew that.
We're not all from California.
Privatise or unionize the military? In a weird horrid way it already is. Many many many are there for the paycheck/bennies/education. I was in the army and many then were there for the same things. It was not a calling, an obligation or duty of citizen, or done for love. DINERO baybee. Perhaps it is worse in a way than being privatized. At least a CEO and mission statement and bottomline thinking would have a check on behaviour.
I think MP mentioned in an earlier post something about this. I meant to respond, but had no time.
this is not a WWII army made up of all classes and all fighting for the defense of the homefront and draft. This is pretty much a job, and like all jobs they will behave that way. hahaha I listen to some people in other places comment that no military person would fire if so ordered against us citizens, there would be a revolt etc etc and i giggle. They are jobified and if ordered most would, cuz, y'know, its the JOB.
Then again I could be wrong. I hope I am
sportsfan, they will stuff as all in the economic woodchipper of life given a chance. Maybe angry realism humor?
nova --
Bonds are for rich people. Working shit jobs is for poor people.
Future List for Deciding if Citizen is an Enemy of the Peoples State
A history of the world?
Q - Job - Gladiator
Q - Did you kill this week? - No
Q - Did you try to kill this week? - Yes.
Q - Will you try to kill next week? - Yes,
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/25/2009 - 4:53 pm
should add that those charts are from 2007, the peak. You can household financial and non-financial assets 40-60% to get them up to date. That's what brings things down to the point of never retiring
edit: I'll produce that chart another day when I have some slack time. Any suggestions on what haircuts are realistic for the mean on financial and non-financial assets?
EHP, I would use some sort of sliding scale to factor in losses. Consider the most "aggressive" (<35) category at least 30% (I'd say more like 40-50%) losses and slide up to a generous 20-25% at prime retirement age, then very little for retirees. I think the mean will be really distorted here because losses will NOT be evenly distributed among all age groups thanks to common strategies in retirement plans.
What is the actual number (mean over the timeframe) on the <35 category in that second graphic, top chart? Rough numbers are fine, it's just so low... do we even hit $10k in financial assets? Good lord. Talk about young and stupid.
The militaries job is to be the condom of the rich.
albrt pokes fun at the idea that capital holders will take their ball and go home. I am far from sanguine in thinking it hasn't already happened. The punishing of any government that has defaulted on their bonds has been swift . The IMF has one overarching goal when it bails out a government and that is to ensure repayment. The terms are never pretty and the suffering is measurable. The IMF using the US guided methods against the US would give me a laughing fit which would quickly be curtailed by the fires from the ensuing riots.
The other good point I read from a previous post is that the entire world is enmeshed in this web of globalization and will sink or swim together. I'm not sure I subscribe to that theory but if it is the case then the average citizen is in for a very rough ride going forward. The tide that was supposed to raise all boats somehow managed to sink most of the fleet.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/25/2009 - 2:53 pm
Now shooting a potato cannon at efigy of Krugman.
Refreshingly cathartic!
Fast valve air pressure or lighter fluid? What size bore?
burnside (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/25/2009 - 3:09 pm
S/Z - depends on whether you were educated in US or UK. But you knew that.
We're not all from California.
You will be. You will be.
ova (profile)
Note to Muffin: Remember to smile with hint of warmth...
- EDIT -
Give a hug and remember to thank them. (OK, that was my breakdown of Obama's memorial day speech).
Personally, if I did that I would loose every tooth in my mouth.
I buy them a drink and kick their ass for forgetting to duck.
Reuters April 7, 2015 First Lady Michelle Obama was in New York demonstrating the new home gardening system that will run on grey water and provide a nutrious supplement to millions of Americans. The system is assembled in America and will be shipped free of charge to everyone who made under $12,000 New Dollars or less last year. When asked the First Lady said "I know many, well most, well 95% is hurting, and I think this, as part of my husbands comprehensive program to guarantee every American 2000 calories a day will go a long way to reversing the tide of apathy."
jo6pac wrote:
GM volt due in 2011 is going to cost 40,000, how will they compete against Ford and every one else that will have cars ready in 2010 at 20,000.
I'll tell you how. By funneling billions into their financing arm, GMAC. Last week, GMAC got another 7.5 billion so they can do more subprime 0% loans for Chrysler cars. I expect GMAC to receive another multi-billion dollar infusion to continue subprime financing of GM cars. Ford is carrying $154 billion in long term debt and can't finance as many cars as the U.S. government. I expect Ford to BK within a year.
ShadowInventory -
I have a 2007 Saturn Vue
My current POS is a 97 SL2, I have had enough fun with those, time to try something else. Thanks though, the VUE does look nice, I'm just a little disappointed.
albrt: the S. Ct is still allowing reporters in and publishing decisions with their holdings but absolutely no cameras (not a valid concern for a lowly trial court). Despite Bush v. Gore, I try to keep a little faith...
** since when is "unionised" and "stabilised" spelled with S'es? **
You may wish to speak with Ye Olde Mother Country (England) about it...
@nova,
The new currency will be called the "Amero", not New Dollars
rsj -
Then again I could be wrong. I hope I am
I am pretty sure you are, or at least I hope you are.
When was the last time you talked to someone on active duty?
It might help to remind you that there are people still out there willing to serve, and it is not all about the money baby.
Oh well there are probably better vehicles but you said under 22k right?
My current POS is a 97 SL2, I have had enough fun with those, time to try something else. Thanks though, the VUE does look nice, I'm just a little disappointed.
Check out a 2007/2008 Taurus (the new full-size version). I've had a few as rentals and have been surprised. They are very good cars, way better than the Sonatas and Camrys that I normally get. You should have no problem finding one for less than $22k with fairly low miles. If you want something for carrying cargo, look at the Taurus X - it's like a tall station wagon, not quite minivan/crossover. It's is another really really good car that almost nobody knows exists.
Today Fairfax County announced the new "Teachers Assistance Plan." The program, called TAP, is part of the new plan to enable teachers the ability to concentrate on teaching. All students enrolled in TAP will be responsible for bringing in all of their supplies; pay a knowledge gratuity of $25 per week; and sign up for the mandantory lunch program. The county, contrary to rumors will not provide a base grade of a C to all students partcipating.
For those students not partcipating, and due to budget constraints, those who can not, or will not fund their educations will be slotted in the new "Kids in Kontrol" KIK program. This program will provide quality education using the old FEMA trailors on the former Lacrosse field. Fairfax County remains commited to providing everyone with the best educational experience possible.
Maybe angry realism humor?
Could be humorous snark noir.
Kahuna....It might help to remind you that there are people still out there willing to serve, and it is not all about the money baby
Just the type officers I expect to lead a coup
nova is scaring me.
ShadowInventory (profile) -Oh well there are probably better vehicles but you said under 22k right?
Thanks, I have been pulling up to mom and pop service stations, (The few left and asking the same question). The bad news is all of their answers are non-US.
Chicago Dude -
Check out a 2007/2008 Taurus (the new full-size version).
Strange, all of my friend that own them love them.
I just follow the general rule that for every thousand, I wait a month to buy. Around 2 years I decided I needed a new car, 4 years ago I decided I need a needed a single family home. I'm still waiting to see value in either options.
Lighter fluid, 2 inch bore
Not quite clearing the outfield
This is what happens when brothers are unemployed
nova --
Kahuna....It might help to remind you that there are people still out there willing to serve, and it is not all about the money baby
Just the type officers I expect to lead a coup
Not likely, and not really possible. Enemy external and internal does not mean taking out idiot savants who get people to follow them.
Do not look to the military to fix a "F...edup" problem, This is not Argentina, and it's not their job.
The people voted these idiots in, its their job to vote them out.
Sarge: All right! Listen up. We have been assigned CAP (Civilian Assistance Program).
collective groan
Sarge: You know the drill. Once we clear the secure zone and pass the first checkpoint at Shady Oakes Estates I want everyone, and that includes you Miss Sarah, to be awake, alert and ready to help your fellow citizens!
Sarah: whispers to Abdul "God when is going to forget about it?"
Abdul: "Never, unless you give her a little taste."
Sarah: "EUUUwww, well maybe."
Sarge: Yes Corporal Whitmann?"
Corporal: What is our objective Sarge?"
Sarge: We are dumping MRE's at Riverside Elementary.
Collective groans....
Sarge: Remember People - watch for pirates...
broward --
Lighter fluid, 2 inch bore
Not quite clearing the outfield
This is what happens when brothers are unemployed
Just let me know when your driving by, I'll be finding cover.
I hope so Kahuna, I am a vet who in todays military would have been shitcanned in the first year.
nova -
Sarge: Remember People -cut ... - watch for pirates...
I think it it will be more like-
"Cattle prods on low you twisted SOBS, And if I see anyone stunning an old lady I'll have a piece of your dried A$$ to write to my wife. And remember only one litre of water per person, I don't care about the stories of how many people are at home."
Deal with it, oh I mean don't worry, buy bank stocks.
nova -
I hope so Kahuna, I am a vet who in todays military would have been shitcanned in the first year.
Not likely, you may have survived the first three as long as you did not get caught.
Kahuna.
Not bad. Not bad at all.
EC
I completely agree that other countries ought to be afraid of US default, or de facto default through inflation. I don't know whether they will stop lending or not.
But US bankers and bond investors threatening to stop lending because they lost a bankruptcy case just doesn't wash. Note that very few people with major capital at stake are even making these kinds of threats. Anybody who has been around for more than one cycle knows this has happened over and over. Donald Trump made it his life's work to screw lenders, but somehow they keep lending him money.
The bankers need the system more than the other parts of the system need the bankers. Thus the TARP creditors suddenly withdrawing their objections. So you are right, the real threat is that the taxpayers who are the source of TARP will dry up. Chinese taxpayers, that is.
This is hilarious (sorry if it's already been posted....)
via Financial Armageddon: Recession blocker
The UAW has a ton to do with GM's (and the other two) failure. GM can not support a gold card retirement at a ratio of 3 retirees to 1 worker. After downsizing it will probably rise more. The UAW did not make the required concessions for survival. The main problem remains. Delphi in a real honest BK was allowed to unload White collar retirees Medical of on the government. Not the union retirees. The UAW is mad at GM announcement that they will close more NA plants and import more cars. They also continue to invest in a growing markets like China. Survival is not going to work with the UAW but work away from them. The UAW owns a country club and golf course that looses over a million dollars a year. Show they either can't handle money or they are good at extortion. Bottom line is very bleak future in Detroit. Say good bye to the American auto industry.
"We understand their pain and we plan to reach out to them." --nova's g-man
MPP (anonymous source from website subscribed by 950 million IP addresses worldwide): "We have plans to be ready for that reach and are in talks with other People's Committees, Parties, and even Republics, to be named later. We would like to go on record as stating that we do not believe the Flint incident was the result of a direct written order from President Palin. We are committed to maintaining 100% monitoring of all Federal digital communication, in accordance with our operating charter. We continue to retool idle plants for production of the solar-electric personal armored mobile home...".
nova -
Not bad. Not bad at all.
Actually it kind of sucked, Been there, done that type thing as a 14 year old kid after a hurricane dealing with my friends.
After that it's easier with strangers. As long as your not setting the rules, you just play by them because you have to, and some people may be shocked what people will do in that nasty play ground.
Which is why I'm very concerned with how quickly rules are changing now, and no one is really looking in the rear view mirror at the road kill. Oh, well its all good right?
"The UAW owns a country club and golf course that looses over a million dollars a year. "
"Hell, we blow through that in 9 holes" said the GMAC cfo.
That is why they are all done!
albrt -
I completely agree that other countries ought to be afraid of US default, or de facto default through inflation. I don't know whether they will stop lending or not.
Maybe I'm just dense, but why would I play poker with someone who changes the rules of the game mid-hand? No really, Would you?
China can not stop just to keep feeding the pigs eating the dragons "S...", but they are not stupid and are moving their major focus on commodities, and internal development. I'm pretty dense and that what is what I would do. OK, I don't have that much money but I wish I did.
OT from last thread: Prop 13
Rob Dawg writes: The problem with all this talk about dismantling Prop 13 is the assumption that it would result in more State revenue. California is already very highly taxed in every category including property taxes. California has proven that there is a limit to taxation.
The fear is that without true reform of the political and tax systems, California could go "Detroit". Check out these tax rates on homes worth about $70K (according to Cyberhomes, and almost certainly a fantasy if you were to try to sell them.) $5-7K/year tax bills on $70K homes!
http://www.freep.com/uploads/pdfs/2009/05/0524_watson.pdf
(Unless, like the good Councilwoman owning the home discussed in the above link, your home was lucky enough to have been "hit be a tornado, leaving an empty lot", so that your tax bill was now $68/year. But that's another story...)
And if you think no city in its right mind would keep increasing tax rates while its economy kept sinking, check this historical chart showing rates from 1965 to 2009. Taxes have more than doubled. Non-homestead property rates are now over 8% of the value of the property, per year. (Current Prop 13 cap is 1% of assessed value for reference.)
I think California's tax system, including Prop 13, needs major reform, but so long as "reform" is a code work for "more revenue", then I'm not convinced we're going to be getting any real reform.
ResistanceIsFeudal
I just erased a long post that was going to show the mean net worth by age of household group using actual data, but I think it's more work than I want to do. Like for any series that represents the actual performance of an asset class. The time periods of the data needs to match or I need to write a script to make them sync. There are chunks of assets with no good index. Bonds had very different performance depending on quality. Should it reflect the mean incomes of the group, what about population weighting. I just kind of want to make a comprehensive animated surface plot. Right now I can't think of a elegant way to do it. It has to be of narrow focus, or it has to be rough in approximation. So because of that I don't see what I would learn. The only way it is worthwhile if you build a comprehensive bottom up model that has estimates of future performance (eg a random walk), and then look at where the sub zero net worth begins under those assumptions. Probably more worth the effort to look at the correlation between increase in debt and increase in incomes or something else
1 currency now -yogi
"Hell, we blow through that in 9 holes" said the GMAC cfo.
== Priceless,
Where is that 9th hole cocktail girl? I'ts been two puts since my last drin,,,k~.. glluullp, Da... m ..glllllllllupollp - barf. it.
ResistanceIsFeudal
How did you load .xls data into a db and what db did you use for playing with the data?
Kahuna,
I know a bit about "ordinary men" and how heads can twisted. All social engineering is preceded by verbal engineering. If the MSM starts to villify a group of people for being "different" than I know we are on the road to smoking chimneys. That is a group of citizens inside the US. Outside the US it is just a run up to war.
The FT article did a good job of pointing out how the investors in Chrysler and GM are different. I'm not sure the companies should be treated differently. It is astounding how much sympathy is playing into the decision of what to do with these companies. We do not have sympathy for a hedge fund, therefore its investors should get screwed. We do have sympathy for people on assembly lines.
The idea that a judge would actually ratify the president's decision to hand a major corporation to one of his special interest groups absolutely disgusts me.
EvilHenryPaulson - ResistanceIsFeudal
EHP, that would have been interesting just to look at. I think at times Blogs have become so rigid that people are afraid to put up the data as they see it and just say "WTF" do you think, and then move from there.
Maybe I just take my "No Fear" tee's too seriously. but really if anyone really has a handle on what is going on, they are charging mega bucks for it, I prefer to think that no-none has a clue and we just need to deal with it.
I think there is major disconnect. The road from post-industrial to new age green sounds great. The problem is getting there. As in what are we going to do in the "mean time." It will truly be a "mean time" if the aristocracy of finance does not move from stripping the corpse to creating a new nag they can ride to the Hamptons.
"The idea that a judge would actually ratify the president's decision to hand a major corporation to one of his special interest groups absolutely disgusts me."
I assume the judge was hand picked just like the team who oversaw the organization of the BK. Truly smells.
"I think California's tax system, including Prop 13, needs major reform.........."
......I think I remember voting FOR Prop 13 many years ago. It doesn't need reform, the legislators need to learn the basics - like how to balance a checkbook. Then we can progress to more advanced subjects like "Mental Exercises for a Working Brain" ......
is it politically still important for Obama to allow the GM and Chrysler bond failures to make the ultimate statement regarding the sacred US Treasury Market?
to load xls files into postgres, i just use a perl xls to csv converter. no need to reinvent the wheel. however, the scf worksheets don't really have a reliable field/column standards.
someone needs the fed to export using xml or something of the sort.
I just had a bowl of ice cream with the wife and an interesting comercial came on: This is true BTW
White guy, 40's, a bit of a drawl. Blue collar looking. First part has a 3 bay loading dock in the background
"I am a bit down on my luck. I have worked hard my entire life and just need a bit of help so I can go back to doing it....
Switch to him standing in front of a locked gate. Fence has barbwire. Empty parking lot behind it.
But XXXXXXX voted against Supplimental Unemployment Insurance. ....
Followed by in so many words...I am a taxpayer I work hard...I am down and that dickhead just kicked me, American white working man, in the teeth
OT: Paulson Didn't Understand MBSs
"The idea that a judge would actually ratify the president's decision to hand a major corporation to one of his special interest groups absolutely disgusts me."
OK, so did you put together a competing bid for the New Chrysler?
Hmm, looks like nobody else did either. Wonder why. Could it be because the damn company isn't worth anything without a massive government subsidy? No, it must be because the system is rigged against rich people. Bummer.
Why can't bond holders be satisfied with the the trillions in bailouts they are getting under the table? Why is it so unfair that somebody else should get a subsidy that is a tiny fraction of the investor bailout subsidies?
nova -
Kahuna,
I know a bit about "ordinary men" and how heads can twisted. All social engineering is preceded by verbal engineering. If the MSM starts to villify a group of people for being "different" than I know we are on the road to smoking chimneys. That is a group of citizens inside the US. Outside the US it is just a run up to war.
Very true, I just realize / hope that the average American/a see's through it.
Maybe I trust / wish too much. It can work for a little while, and if I remember my history enough things whipsaw every 8-14 years (short term) and I remember the same "issues" in the early 80's.
But this time is so much more extreme, "the ordinary 'person' " still has not seen it, it will take more time until people realize how bad things are for them.
Now for me, been there, done that, I think only major flood or hurricane victims in the US, have a real clue what is coming. Only they get a couple of days warning, right now... I don't know, it might be a "what where you thinking about" moment, or it can go the way the numbers look like.
In any case if I could I would be stocking up on real things I will need in the next few years.
Forty and probably not a dime saved, I don't have any sympathy for these folks in this spot. It was a job, they didn't get adopted.
nova -
I just had a bowl of ice cream with the wife and an interesting comercial came on: This is true BTW
May you live in interesting times. (No Chinese curse intended).
-edited -- time to hit the sack.
Lobbyist Ben Dover -
Forty and probably not a dime saved, I don't have any sympathy for these folks in this spot. It was a job, they didn't get adopted.
Adopted by the State, you really don't like us do you?
Cali?
wait just got a QE call...
"You'll take your dollars and go spend;end them wisely."
-slam
Woa, got the call for the judge on my bonds.
"You'll lap up what I give ya."
-ugfff that hurts.
Kauai_Kahuna
It's partly the work involved, and partly you know what the result is before you begin. Would like to do it as a real stress test, like what declines can a household sustain before it is hopelessly insolvent. Just don't have a good way of doing it that doesn't take the freedom to interpret away from the viewer.
Basel Too,
thanks, just curious. getting data in csv is never a problem but just wondered if there was a common tool with a GUI to facilitate oddly formatted excel files for db entry. As for the db itself, I guess I'm curious as to what other people use. I don't find the effort in setting one up if the dataset isn't huge, or I'm not going to use it more than once or twice.
Forty and probably not a dime saved, I don't have any sympathy for these folks in this spot. It was a job, they didn't get adopted.
Once you get past that - what do you have? Is it a good thing for him to be starving and living in a tent for Society? If he goes to jail, who pays? If he jerks you out of your BMW at a traffic light and kicks your ass because he sees you as a dick head?
I remember one time I got in a disagreement with a BMW driving, nice suit wearing asshole. I was wearing jeans, boots, and a t-shirt. My friend asked me "What if he kicked your ass?" My reply was "Even if I lost he was going to lose more."
bANK fAILURE-
But if your joey the taxpayer - you just take it - .. ... ...!
I think there is major disconnect. The road from post-industrial to new age green sounds great. The problem is getting there.
That's what the Green Chutes are for. Oh, wait, they only go down......
Virginia
EHP - I just hang out here for that off the cuff, gut feeling analysis.
I can't get enough of it.
I live in Hawaii which is so whacked, but somehow reality still does not matter here. I truly need every anchor I can find.
Kauai_Kahuna, can you give us a thumbnail sketch of how Hawaii is being affected? (RE prices and turnover and inventory, unemployment, anecdotal early indicators...)
i only now postgresql/perl, but it does the job for informal data manipulation. with really standardized data sets, i can automatically generate most of the DB tables via perl script simply by parsing the data itself.
Oh, CC, you mean real productive companies are competing for funds with the US government. Guess who has the printing press and who doesn't. We are so flocked!
Garsh, we boomers are guilty of practically everything.
EHP,
PostgreSQL is really the best open source database available today, though MySQL is currently more popular. Exporting data as tab separated can sometimes be easier than CSV if you have fields like addresses that often contain commas. PostgreSQL imports/exports tab separated natively. Both PostgreSQL and MySQL have nice PHP web front ends that make it easy to search/browse/edit data. Very often, I find that data sets need some clean up before they can be imported.
EHP,
I'm a UNIX guy, so may I recommend MySQL as a database and all the free GUI tools that go with it. They have a great web site, and ton's of "Learning SQL" stuff. To be honest it gives me a headache and I would prefer to work in perl to get what I want, but sometime you just can't beat a free SQL database with free tools, BTW, works great with M$.
Of course the company was bought by SUN, who I think is being bought also, but its a great start.
liz, my apolgies for last nights quippes.
Bond holders steamed? One-time problem!
Once Geithner passes his new CDS regulations, bondholders can conveniently buy new standardized CDS "insurance", and problem solved! Heck, perhaps we should make it MANDATORY to buy this insurance (like no-fault auto insurance) when buying a bond: think of how STABLE our economy would be with that EXTRA LAYER OF PROTECTION built in!
Counterparty risk you say? NO PROBLEMO! Geithner's bill is written to ENSURE that only the BIGGEST BADDEST (I meant that in a GOOD way) BANKS will be allowed to dominate the new CDS trade. WIN WIN all around, I say!
So, problem with Moral Hazard? INSURE AGAINST IT!
(This ad paid for by the Committee for the Promotion of the Next Big Financial Innovation, LLC, Caymen Islands. That's all you need to know.)
my finger just shrunk.
MySQL will run on a Windows machine also. I use it to run a leave an attendance program an a inventory program
Dcrogers thats some of the best marketing Ive seen in weeks.
Perl Rulez!.
It's really great for writing bots which.....never mind.
my finger just shrunk.
It's ok. It will fit in your nose better now.
Doesn't really matter what state these kind of ad piss me off. We got one right now with a Hollywood actor posing as a rural farmer bad mouthing big oil and praising wind energy. Not an ounce of fact in the ad either. Irresponsible but seems to work now days. Just pound it in their heads.
lets play
Lets Post Capital.(you rent)
wouldnt you rather play Globo_Euro_Sovereign_Bake_Sale? it goes all the way up to 11.
Lobbyist Ben Dover
Just advance salvos in the divide and rule game as paid for by the wealth owners of america.
patientrenter - Really need to check out, but an honest question deserves a response. In short right now its denial - and not the river in Egypt.
In a nut shell, the general rule of thumb is we lag OC - Cal, by around 1-3 years, right now I would say we are lagging around 2.5 years in both real estate, jobs, etc.
The economy is more or less one legged on tourism, which has only lately taken a good dive that can not be hidden by the state reports, the AG. and Military minor legs are taking major hits, for the military it is cuts and deployments. AG it is just the overall economy catching up, no one wants to pay the high price that growing in the US entails.
Hawaii has always suffered from boom and bust, but most people do not listen to their kapuna / elders, resulting in not only repeating history, but improving on it.
We got one right now with a Hollywood actor posing as a rural farmer bad mouthing big oil and praising wind energy.
Yeah. Makes me wonder who is paying for all these liberal "Repower america - it's time to get real" BS ads. Soros?
I think we're being invited to commit economic suicide (even more than we already have).
We're already living in "the next of times" ...
So, what comes after "post-modernism" anyway ...?
to let, or the familiar form:
for rent...
PostgreSQL, MySQL, ... I like IBM Cloudscape/Apache Derby/Java DB. I prefer to program in Java or C if I do, which isn't much at all recently. If I need to parse data with a script, I ought to relearn Python. I just wanted to make a 3d bar chart with varying transparency. Once I figure out what I can plot as an animated 3d surface, I'll do that.
It's really great for writing bots which.....never mind.
Oklahoma reports its tax revenue on a daily basis, so i've got a bot dedicated to loading it on a daily cron.
Idaho.
Those who are in control will stay in control and will keep things together as best they can.
If that fails, they'll kill all of us.
But then who would they lend to? They need us as raw input for the securitization machines.
If I need to parse data with a script, I ought to relearn Python.
Perl is as good or better at parsing and lacks the "feature" of "syntactically significant whitespace" - BARF.
ok, Ive probably already told you too much...
the california debt crisis is solved by a massive upgrade of home facilities for the military complex in Southern and Central California.....liquified natural gas is coming....you've been warned too many times about the oil situation.
Barry Haig: Im in Control here.
Alexander Obama: By rationing caloric intake of 2000 calories a day, we can cap the price of food at the Mcdonalds, globally.
Comrade Coinz - EHP,
PostgreSQL -v- MySQL.
Not going to get into a debate on this, both are very good for an average user, review the documentation and pick what you can understand and work with.
Personally for me "SQL=Headache" AND "Workstress" != "FUN" JOIN table WTF/AM.I.DOING.HERE BY GIRLFRIENDS.NOT.TALKING.TO.ME.
SQL guys, please check the syntax and you will understand why.
bf, so, are they going to reinstate the draft, with all these facilities they're upgrading?
Having done a fair bit of Perl, PHP, and Python, I can highly recommend Ruby over any other scripting language. It is really beautiful. I am going almost all new applications in Ruby on Rails with PostgreSQL as the back end. Even you don't want to deal with the high learning curve of Rails, Ruby is really nice on its own.
kapuna?
Am I allowed to say that here?
kapuna?
Am I allowed to say that here?
kapuna?
Am I allowed to say that here?
"So, what comes after "post-modernism" anyway ...?"
Every generation thinks of itself as 'modern.' Thirty years later they bore everyone but the retro enthusiasts. The Woodstock generation was modern. Flappers were modern. Gibson girls were modern. Regency blades like Beau Brummel were modern. The swells of 1840 were post-modern. It's a way of attracting attention, but the peacock's feathers grow dusty, and the hens loose interest.
Snark noir---great!
bf, so, are they going to reinstate the draft, with all these new facilities they're building?
No need for that--they're reinstating unemployment.
"But then who would they lend to? They need us as raw input for the securitization machines."
Why do they bother?
Yes, Pavel ...
and the Mortgage Pig cometh ...
EvilHenryPaulson - I like IBM Cloudscape/Apache Derby/Java DB. I prefer to program in Java or C
Java = Security hole very week.
Apache = Security hole very other week.
IBM = "Who hell would bother".
Now your saying something that I will listen to.
PERL = OK, now we are talking.
if there was a common tool with a GUI to facilitate oddly formatted excel files for db entry.
It's been awhile since I used it but Aqua Data Studio is generally pretty good for moving data around.
Database query tool - Aqua Data Studio is the query analyzer that works with Oracle, DB2, Sybase, MySQL and more.
bobn-
Python -vs- PERL
Better for another area of cyber space, but I vote for PERL. Sorry, its just so easy do do the impossible.
albrt [NOBODY WILL EVER LEND MONEY AGAIN! ]
I'm glad the bondholders are taking a hit. But the union needs to take a bath too. Obama shouldn't decide who gets what..
Everyone gets a shave and BK judge gets to preside.
Samdog - Kapuna?
"Elders", the old farts who always know better than you, etc.
Comrade Coinz -
Having done a fair bit of Perl, PHP, and Python, I can highly recommend Ruby
I have heard that a lot, how is the overall support for XXX... protocol or latest not so great system in Ruby?
Capitalism: Payout based on priority of debt.
Socialism: Payout based on social good.
Communism: Payout based on party affiliation.
Where are we headed?
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/25/2009 - 6:11 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal
Anyway, it looks like others have given more than sufficient commentary. All I will say (DBMS choice is somewhat akin to religion choices in my opinion/experience!) is that I find little advantage in full-blown DBMS for one-man analysis projects that don't require dynamic data or warehousing/auditing, unless there are sufficient support tools already made to work with the data. I use what I know and most of the time get annoyed with query tools and end up back in SQL or beating my head against MDX occasionally.
How did you load .xls data into a db and what db did you use for playing with the data?
Sorry for the delay in responding... for such a seemingly easy task it is surprising how difficult they make things (probably to bulk up the revenues of the middleware / ETL industry) for automating data loads. I like M$ SQL2000's tools, especially DTS, in terms of utility, and it is very straightforward to use. You can also get them for free as well as the old MSDE which is SQL server 2000 with user limits on concurrency. For pure analysis that isn't needing multiuser and concurrency/security features, performance-wise you can't beat SQLite in my opinion. It integrates extremely well with most open source languages. For serious data mauling I find perl matchless, and it's easy to make it fairly platform independent. I did it in M$ with a view towards having access to the tools I use for work, namely OLAP cubes and SQL Analysis Services, but didn't get that far and wasn't going to devote large amounts of time to it for obvious reasons
Jack Staub writes: Where are we headed?
Poverty: Payout based on having no damn money left.
EHP,
For a suggestion from left field, check out Pipeline Pilot, a data analysis and integration tool I've used as a scientist for a lot of cool analysis jobs. (Disclaimer: I founded the company that originally wrote the software, though I have no current affiliation with them [indeed, I was all but fired, but that is another story!])
As a scientist, I got irritated at how difficult it was to process and do repetitive experiments with data that was scattered through databases, excel spreadsheets, and websites. This allowed me to automate the grungy parts and focus on repeating the experiments, slightly changing the conditions, without having to pre-merge and cleanup all the data sources.
Write me at drogers at unterhund dot com and I'll give you my views of the strengths/weaknesses of the data pipelining approach; but after reviewing (and with no insult intended to broward), I almost barfed at the suggestion of having to use the overcomplex DB-centric "aquafold" interface. Working with large data sets should be a pleasure, not painful.