from d.bernard@wsj.comd.bernard@wsj.com
to otis
date Thu, May 21, 2009 at 12:53 PM
subject RE: SP 500 PE is 62, not 15 (KMM19898265I72L0KM)
mailed-by wsj.com
hide details 12:53 PM (9 minutes ago)
Reply
Follow up message
Dear otis,
Thak you for contacting Daniel Bernard of The Wall Street Journal
Online. Mr. Bernard has requested that the WSJ.com Customer Service
dept. acknowledge receipt of your email.
We forwarded your comments to our Markets Data Group, which replied with
the following explanation:
"Our source, Birinyi, has verified their figure to be correct based on
their methodology. Birinyi’s explanation as to why their number differs
from S&P is how S&P classifies some one time changes as operating
expenses and Birinyi does not. This will lead to different values.
Neither method is “wrong”, it is just different methodologies. In the
end it is really at the analyst’s discretion as how to categorize
one-time charges. Birinyi & S&P differ on how this is done.
We use Birinyi as our source for P/E data for the S&P 500, Russell 2000,
and NASDAQ so we have a consistent methodology from one source used
across all three indexes so an apples-to-apples comparison can be made."
No wonder the banks are not loaning money to anyone except those who do not need it.
To bad everything is built around the idea that credit will always be available. Small biz is/will get killed.
This is really ugly trap. They can not loan but the only way the economy can turn over is if they do. The gov gave them money to loan but they can't or won't. Can't cause they need to improve their C & A. Won't because they want to get away from the TARP restrictions as soon as possible. Yet that very course of action will kill them...
Schwarzenegger: "Based upon information I gathered in meetings I held while in Washington D.C., discussions with the legislative leaders, and the will of the people who said loudly and clearly in Tuesday's election that they want Sacramento to live within its means"
Then the punchline:
Earlier today, the governor told reporters after a legislative prayer breakfast that he was not a big fan of borrowing.
Comment from last thread re TBT - inverse relationship to market?
Historically, when the market dives, investors flee to "quality" Treasuries for protection purposes. Prices of Treasuries rise with yield dropping, so TBT will drop as well.
But the question now is whether the Treasury will be considered a quality investment moving forward. Foreigners stopped buying them during January/February when the TBT was at it's lowest - this data per Setser. The yield stayed down because the Fed bought the damned things without explicitly stating that they were doing so. And that's why I got killed.
So the question now is, how long can the Fed continue to keep the yield down before it's overwhelmed by external sources? Slowly, the yield's been rising...
So, do you feel lucky punk?
Yeah, I think that I'm going to go in this week on this one.
I am still trying to make sense of everything that happened to day.....should be fun next week. Wonder what is going to pop up and divert national attention over the long weekend...
Someone made the observation last thread that the inverse dollar/market relationship reversed today...not sure what that means, but sure makes me go hmmmmmmm....
The banksters always fight by ambush. I yell at them, "Jackals! Come out and fight like a man!"
Then they wait until after-hours trading, and sneak around off-exchange. Bastards, hiding in their Dark Pools.
Why won't they stand still?
But suspect that if it is losing the inverse relationship, then you can argue that the Treasury bond is losing status as safest altervative available. With all of the talk recently about the debt load and now with the talk about the UK, it could be making folks nervous.
Not One Cent (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:27 pm
We merged with the real Great Depression line, despite all the Fed/Congress stimulus/bailouts.
There are some of us here who might rightly claim that the ONLY reason we resemble the great depression is BECAUSE of "all the Fed/Congress stimulus/bailouts."
Anybody got some opinion of the likelihood of having to deal with the FDIC if I open an account at:
-Discover Bank
- ING
- Or a local Massachusetts bank
Yes, I can make smart remarks about all of the options, too. Just trying to get the best of the bunch. I don't have a yard to bury jars in.
I've been mainly a lurker since I started reading CR a month ago. Thanks to all who comment, I've learned a ton of new stuff and enjoyed it thanks to the varied personalities here. Growing up, I was pretty close to my grandparents, who survived the Great Depression - well, actually they did better than survive, they came out of it better than they went in. To say they were frugal old Yankees is an understatement. Unfortunately, they aren't around to quiz about it anymore. And I came to an interest in economics late in life, after starting a family and a small business. What I remember from them was that they believed in saving and buying land. They also bought shares in some blue chip companies during the GD and just held them until they passed away. So, I have been reading and trying to understand some of what is going on with the markets and government intervention. Common sense tells me the whole SHTF scenario is inevitable in time. I watched my 401k crash in the fall, lost 40%. Since then, I've rebalanced and traded in it and made back half the loss, so I'm only off 20% now - with a heavy allocation to commodities (metals, natural resources, and agriculture). Probably could have done better if I thought this rally was going to extend past April, when I thought it had done enough.
Reading the news re: China, Stimulus, Euro/Dollar, Treasuries, and Quantitative Easing, it seems we'll see some deflation for a year, then screaming inflation. Which brings me back to my grandparents idea of buying land. Mortgage rates are low - I see the long end of the yield curve rising, so I assume mortgage rates will follow eventually. I already own two homes, virtually no debt associated with them - 3 years left on a small mortgage on the second home. People are starting to put their beach homes up for sale where our second home is in CT. I'm thinking of buying another one - prices are down 30-40% off the peak in that neighborhood. I have two kids, so I'd have a house for each and save them from having to take out mortgages at 30% rates in 5-10 years, if we have the inflation scenario. And besides, other than shorting the hell out of the S&P and DOW, I can't think of anything better to do with the money. I want real stuff. The paper stuff (currency, stocks, bonds, etc) will just go eventually with all the smoke and mirrors.
I don't think my cash is going to increase in value. I don't really want to be in stocks or bonds, because of all the intervention for the PTB. I don't have enough ammo to defend a stack of gold.
So question for those of you who know real estate and macroeconomics - is this a crazy time to be buying property? wait? or buy gold and more ammo?
I think @ this time it's appropriate to hold a seance, and see if we can't conjure up the spirit of *** Bond, secret agent 006.9's dear departed assets...
(turns the lights way down low, almost as low as the yield on 10 year promise sorry notes)
Rob Dawg- "The last time the S&P500 correctly "predicted" the general economy and/or their own referenced earnings was April 2007. Demonstrating their being provably wrong for 2 years running is hardly intellectually dishonest."
Dawg, Schaeffer referenced the improvement in Index of Leading Economic Indicators. You keyed on the Bloomberg quote talking about the S&P 500. The S&P is only one of ten leading economic indicators. Seven of them are up this month, for the first time in many months. It's diffusion, Dawg, diffusion.
Today, Paul Kasriel and Asha Bangalore, who are respected here and elsewhere, said:
"At the present time, we can temporarily conclude that the worst of the decline in economic activity is part of history."
A little OT and maybe it's already been posted. But here's a comment about one of our favorite people comparing her to William McChesney Martin, the Fed Chairman in the '60s (from Economist's View):
"these days it's more about the 'C' and the 'A,'" says Valentin.
That's a good guideline for any guy your daughter brings home. "What's his capital and asset quality, dear?" I'd also want to see his dental records. Braces aren't cheap, and bad teeth are hereditary.
But I love how they preface it..."at the present time."
Stabilizing? For now. But I'm still sitting tight to see what happens.
The reality is that I've been able to maintain what I started when TSHTF in the market. My thought was to hold things together until things bottomed/stabilized/whatever you want to call it. I'd then go in on some really good dividend stocks/dividend growth funds.
But with earnings continuing to show negative - the PE ratios are arguably gamed - and dividends being cut throughout, I don't see that it's anything yet but knifecatching.
Yeah, they say you can't play market timing, but if I'd listened to them I'd be down about 40% - and of the whole, not just some play money on TBT.
"At the present time, we can temporarily conclude that the worst of the decline in economic activity is part of history."
Can be qualified as ledge, floor or springboard...as a function of a slower rate of decline...
From mp's link:
On a year-to-year basis, the LEI fell 3.0% in April, after a 4.0% drop in the November-December months of 2008. The year-to-year change in LEI on a quarterly basis dropped 3.6% in the second quarter (based on April data). It is the second consecutive decline which is smaller than the 3.9% drop of the fourth quarter of 2008.
So if a slower rate of decay is stabilization, then clearly we have stabilization...temporarily...if you look at the plot of the YoY change in LEI vs. Real GDP in the linked pdf, there are two other upticks of the LEI that were larger in magnitude on the way down from the peak around 2005. Time will tell.
I have been a long time stalker here as an avid reader, I want to thank CR for some fantastic data collection and real thoughtful analysis. And I also enjoy all the SA - Smart A$$ / supreme analysis input from all the contributors.
I often describe this site to my friends as a super bear / reality site depending on your view, I have always considered myself a long term value investor, and over the last two years I have slowly started to adjust to reality that value is not part of our current reality, and the I have slowly started to stop playing poker with people who stack the deck, change the rules and hold a gun to my head when I try to leave the game. (Which explains the slow adjustment, most of the hero's I know are in the cemetery.)
Today I dropped all pretences of investing, and sold what little stocks I had such as MMM, loss; COP, loss; PWE, gain; PGH, gain; and moved more of my 401K to cash which was very little remaining in mutual funds.
My question for the collective body, I have around 60% of my 401K in PIMP-CO, I mean PIMCO TOTAL RETURN INSTL, not much but hey for me its a big amount. Should I move it to cash?
All flames and thoughtful comments welcomed, and thanked in advance.
Even if I don't like them.
capital preservation-ish - picking up a $1500/mo mortgage with a <5% fixed 30 yr is not stressful, and even less so if all the Fed pumping leads to 70's inflation or worse.
One of our vehicles has limited options, one of which is PIMCO total return. I've held tight given Gross' abilities to handle bonds. (no snark remarks, please, he does know his stuff). no loss of funds there.
Am now considering moving that out into MM alternative. If the treasury market pukes (a legitimately great phrase), then I expect that fund - almost all bond funds - to get toasted. Even if they are participating in Timbabwe's PPIP.
All out of stock, too late - besides the geniuses in the state legislature implemented their own AWB (which didn't expire after 10 years like the federal one), so the good ones are illegal here.
TSMC to re-hire hundreds of workers
by Warwick Ashford, Computer Weekly
Thursday 21 May 2009
TSMC, one of the world's largest computer chip manufacturers, is to re-hire hundreds of workers who were laid off because of the economic downturn.
Morris Chang, chairman of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, has declared the worst of the economic crisis is over, according to the Financial Times.
But forecasters are akin to pilots in that they can read the instrumentation in the cockpit. Unfortunately, the instrument panel got trashed with a load of green paint since last year, so the gauges are kinda hard to read.
Gee, is that 600 feet or 60000 feet?
But will this stick? And they provide as big a non-answer as anybody else.
"capital preservation-ish - picking up a $1500/mo mortgage with a <5% fixed 30 yr is not stressful"
I that you're still under the spell of high-leverage gains which won't happen again. Most property is still heavily leveraged, I think the only thing with more leverage is the bond market.
But I think the percentage bet is that Bernanke prints.
If your goal is to burn away the mortgage, I think it's better than 50/50 odds, can't judge the time frame, though.
mp,
You didn't notice that despite many replies you are the only one to see offense? I most certainly picked S&P500 out of the LEI for special scorn. I was clear on that point. I have other issues with other LEIs but chose to fire a rifle for the kill rather than let loose a shotgun in hopes of wounding several. Another bullet could have been aimed at U-3 and its history, scope and adjustments. IMO some of the LEI are broken, several are too noisy and several are legitimately lower. Taken in aggregate you cannot detect an inflection point. Outside the traditional measures there's precious little to support as well.
Exactly, people, time will tell. The data (remember that stuff) are pointing up, not down.
Wrong. The macro data is still pointing down, but at a shallower degree than previously. Do you think the dislocation in the bond market today was a sign of stability?
You seem to be the one having a problem with the data and other people's interpretations thereof.
Not trying to pick a fight, but I don't get your hostility.
I am not sure anyone is diputing things have stabilized (more or less) at a lower level. The question is the direction of the next leg. A lot of small businesses are just barely hanging on and running on fumes of whatever cash/credit they still have available. The situation CAN NOT remain stabilized at this level very long. If there is not a noticeable UPTICK in the next three months then there will definitely be a DOWNTICK.
broward> But I think the percentage bet is that Bernanke prints.
I don't think he really has any other options. The Resident and Congress are going to keep spending and who else is buying but Ben? It's like a game of musical chairs, except they have no intention of stopping the music as they keep removing the chairs. When the musicians finally do get tired, it'll be a free for all for the last remaining chair or everyone will just stop and look around and find no chairs. They aren't allowing for an orderly exit for the excess.
novanglus (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 9:02 pm
capital preservation-ish - picking up a $1500/mo mortgage with a <5% fixed 30 yr is not stressful, and even less so if all the Fed pumping leads to 70's inflation or worse.
One greenish shoot. Closing put off, sale at 116; appraisal at 90k, below average neighborhood. Now renegotiated at 100k. Friday closing (next week) maybe.
Clients that I never knew to have money problems, now are having them.
I am actually devoting a brain cell or 2 to buying a really cheap condo.
chainsaw - "Do you think the dislocation in the bond market today was a sign of stability?"
+100 *
Exactly. The 1 thing the USG needs to protect above everything else is its reserve currency status and what faith there is in its ability to make good on its obligations. Transferring all the losses & risk to the USG from all the convenient distributed holes it found itself in over the years is hardly going to make the system more stable - Only makes the implosion that much more spectacular when it happens. And it's not like there isn't historical precedent for what happens when a country behaves recklessly with its obligations or currency.
Kasriel also predicted a "W" shaped recovery, where we would see an intermediate move up from the stimulus/govt support and then another leg down as the effects wore off. That made all the sense in the world to me. Perhaps that could explain the "temporarily conclude that the worst of the decline in economic activity is part of history" language.
noc> A +2% CD is 7%-points higher than a -5% mortgage.
True - assuming we have confidence in the future value of the $, Also assumes that we trust banks to bring up rates with inflation, but I suspect they will lag enough to skim off depositor capital. They do have to recapitalize, after all - we can't expect them to fail - it's our patriotic duty now.
Liz,
You are regionally Space Coast correct? When is the last Shuttle mission? 11 months. Maybe 2 more mission extensions beyond that. Next? 2016 if we are smart. Okay, That's 6-7000 direct jobs and twice that indirect. You still want to be holding a condo? Not me.
He has at least two other options that I know of and I've learned not to underestimate the Federal Reserve. We've already seen that the status quo can persist for an irrationally long time. The bump in U.S. savings rate could go back into U.S treasuries and stabilize a sell-off by Asia. He could let a chunk of things default in conjunction with printing to mute apparent inflation. They could simply freeze bonds, eliminate redemption and assign a nominal interest rate, say 1%.
I agree that the situation sucks and is unstable but.... I think there's more risk here about outcomes than it appears. I think there's a couple of outcomes that none of us can predict.
Looks like a good bank-bad bank split. Guess who gets to be the bad bank:
"The FDIC and BankUnited entered into a loss-share transaction and will share in the losses on approximately $10.7 billion in assets covered under the agreement. The loss-sharing arrangement is projected to maximize returns on the covered assets by keeping them in the private sector. "
It will almost certainly be more than that. Who's the sucker at this table?:
"The FDIC estimates that the cost to its Deposit Insurance Fund will be $4.9 billion. BankUnited's acquisition of all the deposits and assets of BankUnited, FSB was the "least costly" resolution for the DIF compared to alternatives.
In addition to the management team led by John Kanas, ownership includes WL Ross & Co. LLC; Carlyle Investment Management L.L.C.; Blackstone Capital Partners V L.P.; Centerbridge Capital Partners, L.P. LeFrak Organization, Inc; The Wellcome Trust; Greenaap Investments Ltd.; and East Rock Endowment Fund."
Been so busy, I have had no time to brew beer, but I got a killer stout, an IPA and a Red on tap, and tons of mead and other drinks in bottles. I'm have decided to celebrate my losses today. Note to self, stop obsessing and brew more.
Trying to follow this other thread you guys have going. I disagree, I think BB has an option - remember where he is spending most of his money - in the MBS market. He should politely tell Congress he is no longer going to support the Fannie/Freddie charade. Congress could fix the MBS market in a week if they wanted, by giving Fannie/Freddie full faith and credit. But they haven't lifted a finger to do it.
KK> Been so busy, I have had no time to brew beer, but I got a killer stout, an IPA and a Red on tap, and tons of mead and other drinks in bottles. I'm have decided to celebrate my losses today. Note to self, stop obsessing and brew more.
That's a skill that will keep you in business if TSHTF - no matter what happens, we'll all want more beer!
Not really, if the markets crash I will not be able to get the grains, and hops needed here, But fruit trees and bees may still be around, which explains the meads.
Trust me, a good mead makes that frog champagne taste like what is coming out of the treasury.
Leaning over to pour another killer stout, (here's hoping TSHTF does not hit, I have been through enough hurricanes that wiped out everything, it's not fun).
I'm trying to figure out why FDIC couldn't wait until tomorrow night. Any clues out there? How bad could things have gone--did someone leak the closing and FDIC then decide to pre-empt some kind of panic? Or are they just trying to make this the big story tomorrow while something else gets slipped by?
Liz,
Don't worry about the locals. Since Indymac got taken over I left a smaller CD there. I went in when it was Indymac, I renewed as Indmac Federal and yesterday I extended as OneWest Bank. Every time it was the same three ladies.
Maybe they were actually at the point that there was no cash to give people when they went into withdrawl weekend funds. Or, there's another biggie for tomorrow?
Fix = keep MBS at normal spreads over Treasuries without Fed sponsorship of the market.
Fix = give foreign investors comfort that they are not exposed to Fannie/Freddie counterparty risk.
There is absolutely no reason BB needs to be printing money to support this market, when there is money out there that would invest in it if the govt did the right thing with Fannie/Freddie.
Those toxic twins are a long way from being fixed, but the MBS market could be fixed in a flash.
I'm not sure if this was covered elsewhere, but NY Times writer Andrews made a material omission from his personal financial hardship story. His wife filed for bankruptcy (her 2nd filing) in 2007 in the middle of their financial mess.
"How can one predict anything when the rules change daily ?"
I have to admit, I did not anticipate the size of the response. My percentage bet was that the Feds would have given up about 1/2 through their current range of actions and gone deflationary.
This is an awesome album but only if you're over forty.
GD that is truly amazing that Andrews thought he could write a book about this and leave her bk out of it... no ethics on the NYT - but then we knew that...
Hooray, BKUNA has been terminated. One less zombie stalking the land. No reason to wait until Friday when the whole process has been taking place in public.
kurtyboy (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 2:43 pm
I'm trying to figure out why FDIC couldn't wait until tomorrow night. Any clues out there? How bad could things have gone--did someone leak the closing and FDIC then decide to pre-empt some kind of panic? Or are they just trying to make this the big story tomorrow while something else gets slipped by?
Everybody and their uncle knew they were being taken over and who the bidders were, it was a Thursday due to the scale of the bank. Just look to WaMu as an example of when it goes pear shaped.
"He should politely tell Congress he is no longer going to support the Fannie/Freddie charade."
So there you go, another option I didn't think of.
Reality is a lot more complex than people grasp and Ben's had a long time to think about the situation.
Sorry, as much as people love to trash the Government workers, when the SHTF, there is no such thing as weekends, or Holidays, remember the military is Government and the saying there is your paided on a 24/7 basis, the lowest paid works all things considered. As a red headed stepchild, blood sucking contractor I get to see the good and the bad, so:
OK, now lets trash the Government workers.
..........Kung.Fu.....I predicted from early Feb. booming of foundry and DRAM based memory biz. when you were talking about stupid cold fusion ....Philly semi index jumped more than 60% from that time.....FYI, Hynix increased memory prices 10% more for long term contractors two days ago, i.e. PC makers.....this trend will coninue......chicken game was over long before......
Fix = keep MBS at normal spreads over Treasuries without Fed sponsorship of the market.
Fix = give foreign investors comfort that they are not exposed to Fannie/Freddie counterparty risk.
"Reality is a lot more complex than people grasp and Ben's had a long time to think about the situation. "
To be fair, he probably has had that conversation with Congress, but they are not willing to "go there", since giving Fannie/Freddie full faith and credit means taking their liabilities "on balance sheet", which spikes the national debt even more. So instead the govt does the dishonest thing and forces BB to rescue the world (supposedly).
Maybe a good strategy would be to step back from the MBS market for a few days, watch the spreads spike 200bps and mortgages go to 7%, have the MBA, NAR, etc scream all over DC, and see what the response is.
Sooner or later, though, he either has to support the market forever, Fannie/Freddie need to be fixed, or spreads do spike 200bps, since in their current state no one trusts them to cover losses 10 years out.
Amtrust Bank-Cleveland Ohio- November 2008 Office Thrift Supervision issues Cease and Desist Order for unsafe and unsound banking practices-why? financial ratios below standards- Mortgage delinquecy exceeds 7%.
AmTrust Bank Cleveland Ohio class action lawsuit filed 1985- AmTrust Bank Cleveland Ohio settles 9-2007 with a cash payment of $14 milion.
AmTrust Banks violates federal regulations in mortgage lending operations.
FDIC does Nothing.
Office of Thrift Supervision does Nothing- Wall Street Journal 4-25-09 states that Senator George Voinovich Ohio Republican
and Stephen LaTourette Republican Representative Ohio have bought pressure to bear that OTS leave the AmTrust Bank alone. Mayor Frank Jackson Cleveland Ohio does the same ,don't close this Family owned piggy bank.
Treasury Department Special Agent David Smith 12-4-2007- AmTrust bank did nothing wrong but his writing is based on OTS.
President Obama is a nice man with great ideas-but in this country the rich and the powerful who break all the rules live at the expense of the majority of the American people. The Congress does nothing since they wont bite the hand that feeds them.
AmTrust Bank is living proof of this corrupt system-Obama can't make the changes for good-because evil wins each and everytime-Do the math- Do the resarch.
Frist!
Next!
I'm not a rookie... I'm a human being!
Next to next!
the PE saga continues:
from d.bernard@wsj.com
d.bernard@wsj.com 
to otis
date Thu, May 21, 2009 at 12:53 PM
subject RE: SP 500 PE is 62, not 15 (KMM19898265I72L0KM)
mailed-by wsj.com
hide details 12:53 PM (9 minutes ago)
Reply
Follow up message
Dear otis,
Thak you for contacting Daniel Bernard of The Wall Street Journal
Online. Mr. Bernard has requested that the WSJ.com Customer Service
dept. acknowledge receipt of your email.
We forwarded your comments to our Markets Data Group, which replied with
the following explanation:
"Our source, Birinyi, has verified their figure to be correct based on
their methodology. Birinyi’s explanation as to why their number differs
from S&P is how S&P classifies some one time changes as operating
expenses and Birinyi does not. This will lead to different values.
Neither method is “wrong”, it is just different methodologies. In the
end it is really at the analyst’s discretion as how to categorize
one-time charges. Birinyi & S&P differ on how this is done.
We use Birinyi as our source for P/E data for the S&P 500, Russell 2000,
and NASDAQ so we have a consistent methodology from one source used
across all three indexes so an apples-to-apples comparison can be made."
Thank you.
Best Regards,
Wall Street Journal Online Customer Support
Please email your comments or questions to:
email address: onlinejournal@wsj.com
........................................................................................
here's what i know about it:
404 - PAGE NOT FOUND
............................................................................................
should i send them a picture of my ass or my balls in reply?
Okay, CR
I think that second chart is getting a little too busy ...
i'm outta here.
No wonder the banks are not loaning money to anyone except those who do not need it.
To bad everything is built around the idea that credit will always be available. Small biz is/will get killed.
This is really ugly trap. They can not loan but the only way the economy can turn over is if they do. The gov gave them money to loan but they can't or won't. Can't cause they need to improve their C & A. Won't because they want to get away from the TARP restrictions as soon as possible. Yet that very course of action will kill them...
No asset has any quality.
It's interesting that the dotcom crash took about 80% off, while ours has only taken about 65% off. (on the "real" chart)
smoke 'em if you got 'em
" dotcom crash took about 80% off, while ours has only taken about 65% off"
Well, damn, i'd hope so.
There was no multi-trillion intervention in Dot Com Crash.
AIG CEO Ed Liddy is going to step down once a replacement is found.
Schwarzenegger: "Based upon information I gathered in meetings I held while in Washington D.C., discussions with the legislative leaders, and the will of the people who said loudly and clearly in Tuesday's election that they want Sacramento to live within its means"
Then the punchline:
Earlier today, the governor told reporters after a legislative prayer breakfast that he was not a big fan of borrowing.
CAMELS without competent Management and without adequate Capital can be rearranged to spell; SALE.
Otis ... fighting the good fight ...
against the propaganda ...
of the message meisters ...
for the crooks and liars ...
I'm going to make up some t-shirts that say "TBT...Treasury Bond Trash."
Anybody want to buy one?
lookin' at that red line, humming "Turning Japanese"
Comment from last thread re TBT - inverse relationship to market?
Historically, when the market dives, investors flee to "quality" Treasuries for protection purposes. Prices of Treasuries rise with yield dropping, so TBT will drop as well.
But the question now is whether the Treasury will be considered a quality investment moving forward. Foreigners stopped buying them during January/February when the TBT was at it's lowest - this data per Setser. The yield stayed down because the Fed bought the damned things without explicitly stating that they were doing so. And that's why I got killed.
So the question now is, how long can the Fed continue to keep the yield down before it's overwhelmed by external sources? Slowly, the yield's been rising...
So, do you feel lucky punk?
Yeah, I think that I'm going to go in this week on this one.
What does Bernanke think about that bond market ?
sure rich, but which currency do you accept? cigarettes or booze?
--bh
So if BB et. al, are our Generals, and we are the foot soldiers. They have shown good tactical sense but their strategy is fatally flawed?
rich, how about on the back it says "Buy American... Somebody... PLEASE"
I am still trying to make sense of everything that happened to day.....should be fun next week. Wonder what is going to pop up and divert national attention over the long weekend...
kilroy +1
Rich:
Glad you made out alright on the TBT.
Congrats.
Foreign countries have no choice but to sell treasuries ...
to bolster their own economies ...
Russia is one ...
China next?
"Anybody want to buy one?
Don't need it.
Bought this one two years ago.
I consider it ominous for the future that I found it at Zumiez's -
http://www.zumiez.com/Images/ResizedProductImages/135/135875_z_s4.jpg
homedad,
Someone made the observation last thread that the inverse dollar/market relationship reversed today...not sure what that means, but sure makes me go hmmmmmmm....
All banks are healthy. Read from the script, CR, and stop your improvisations, or the IRS will come calling.
The banksters always fight by ambush. I yell at them, "Jackals! Come out and fight like a man!"
Then they wait until after-hours trading, and sneak around off-exchange. Bastards, hiding in their Dark Pools.
Why won't they stand still?
We merged with the real Great Depression line, despite all the Fed/Congress stimulus/bailouts.
mmckinl (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 8:19 pm
What does Bernanke think about that bond market ?
Bernanke thinks that the bond market is supposed to think about him.
Thus is the Achilles' Heel of all central planners.
Energyecon:
Missed that comment...
But suspect that if it is losing the inverse relationship, then you can argue that the Treasury bond is losing status as safest altervative available. With all of the talk recently about the debt load and now with the talk about the UK, it could be making folks nervous.
So where's the money going to go?
Bernanke thinks that the bond market is supposed to think about him.
Thus is the Achilles' Heel of all central planners.
~~~~
Jawboning won't cut it ?
Or is his mouth full of bankster coc .... ?
"So where's the money going to go? "
is it plausible that it can just compress down from long treasuries to short treasuries?
Not One Cent (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:27 pm
We merged with the real Great Depression line, despite all the Fed/Congress stimulus/bailouts.
There are some of us here who might rightly claim that the ONLY reason we resemble the great depression is BECAUSE of "all the Fed/Congress stimulus/bailouts."
Gotta say it - Camel-toe
So where's the money going to go?
~~~~
The money is being eaten up ...
The banksters goble and goble ...
but it is never enough ...
to fill a black hole ...
Rob Dawg, do you mean the interventions made it worse, or it would be worse without the interventions.
I wouldn't walk a mile for a BACtrian CAMEL...
There are some of us here who might rightly claim that the ONLY reason we resemble
the great depression is BECAUSE of "all the Fed/Congress stimulus/bailouts."
~~~~
Go ahead and be embarrassed
for an asinine position ...
It's called the end of Reaganomics ...
The great debt bubble that Greenspan made ...
has popped ...
Anybody got some opinion of the likelihood of having to deal with the FDIC if I open an account at:
-Discover Bank
- ING
- Or a local Massachusetts bank
Yes, I can make smart remarks about all of the options, too. Just trying to get the best of the bunch. I don't have a yard to bury jars in.
In Soviet America, YOU pay interest to bonds!
I've been mainly a lurker since I started reading CR a month ago. Thanks to all who comment, I've learned a ton of new stuff and enjoyed it thanks to the varied personalities here. Growing up, I was pretty close to my grandparents, who survived the Great Depression - well, actually they did better than survive, they came out of it better than they went in. To say they were frugal old Yankees is an understatement. Unfortunately, they aren't around to quiz about it anymore. And I came to an interest in economics late in life, after starting a family and a small business. What I remember from them was that they believed in saving and buying land. They also bought shares in some blue chip companies during the GD and just held them until they passed away. So, I have been reading and trying to understand some of what is going on with the markets and government intervention. Common sense tells me the whole SHTF scenario is inevitable in time. I watched my 401k crash in the fall, lost 40%. Since then, I've rebalanced and traded in it and made back half the loss, so I'm only off 20% now - with a heavy allocation to commodities (metals, natural resources, and agriculture). Probably could have done better if I thought this rally was going to extend past April, when I thought it had done enough.
Reading the news re: China, Stimulus, Euro/Dollar, Treasuries, and Quantitative Easing, it seems we'll see some deflation for a year, then screaming inflation. Which brings me back to my grandparents idea of buying land. Mortgage rates are low - I see the long end of the yield curve rising, so I assume mortgage rates will follow eventually. I already own two homes, virtually no debt associated with them - 3 years left on a small mortgage on the second home. People are starting to put their beach homes up for sale where our second home is in CT. I'm thinking of buying another one - prices are down 30-40% off the peak in that neighborhood. I have two kids, so I'd have a house for each and save them from having to take out mortgages at 30% rates in 5-10 years, if we have the inflation scenario. And besides, other than shorting the hell out of the S&P and DOW, I can't think of anything better to do with the money. I want real stuff. The paper stuff (currency, stocks, bonds, etc) will just go eventually with all the smoke and mirrors.
I don't think my cash is going to increase in value. I don't really want to be in stocks or bonds, because of all the intervention for the PTB. I don't have enough ammo to defend a stack of gold.
So question for those of you who know real estate and macroeconomics - is this a crazy time to be buying property? wait? or buy gold and more ammo?
I think @ this time it's appropriate to hold a seance, and see if we can't conjure up the spirit of *** Bond, secret agent 006.9's dear departed assets...
(turns the lights way down low, almost as low as the yield on 10 year promise sorry notes)
So question for those of you who know real estate and macroeconomics - is this a crazy time to be buying property? wait? or buy gold and more ammo?
I personally have ruled out beanie babies as a storehouse of wealth
From Previous Thread--
Rob Dawg- "The last time the S&P500 correctly "predicted" the general economy and/or their own referenced earnings was April 2007. Demonstrating their being provably wrong for 2 years running is hardly intellectually dishonest."
Dawg, Schaeffer referenced the improvement in Index of Leading Economic Indicators. You keyed on the Bloomberg quote talking about the S&P 500. The S&P is only one of ten leading economic indicators. Seven of them are up this month, for the first time in many months. It's diffusion, Dawg, diffusion.
Today, Paul Kasriel and Asha Bangalore, who are respected here and elsewhere, said:
"At the present time, we can temporarily conclude that the worst of the decline in economic activity is part of history."
http://www.ntrs.com/popups/popup_noprint.html?http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0905/document/dd052109.pdf
In other words, the economy is stabilizing.
nova> I personally have ruled out beanie babies as a storehouse of wealth
Can you use them for reloading?
military police
[is this a crazy time to be buying property?]
FWIW - If you think you're getting a screaming deal, maybe not a bad time, but it seems to me you're already pretty exposed with 2 properties.
Truthfully, I don't see real RE prices doing anything but going flat (after they get done tanking), so what's the rush ?
"s this a crazy time to be buying property?"
Define your goal.
Feeling pretty good right now after sticking with my instincts and fighting the tape on TBT from the low $50s to the $30s..
A little OT and maybe it's already been posted. But here's a comment about one of our favorite people comparing her to William McChesney Martin, the Fed Chairman in the '60s (from Economist's View):
Economist's View: Greenspan's Capital Idea
I'd suggest AR-15 rifles.
"these days it's more about the 'C' and the 'A,'" says Valentin.
That's a good guideline for any guy your daughter brings home. "What's his capital and asset quality, dear?" I'd also want to see his dental records. Braces aren't cheap, and bad teeth are hereditary.
"At the present time, we can temporarily conclude that the worst of the decline in economic activity is part of history."
Does that mean that they soon will stop concluding that?
mp:
But I love how they preface it..."at the present time."
Stabilizing? For now. But I'm still sitting tight to see what happens.
The reality is that I've been able to maintain what I started when TSHTF in the market. My thought was to hold things together until things bottomed/stabilized/whatever you want to call it. I'd then go in on some really good dividend stocks/dividend growth funds.
But with earnings continuing to show negative - the PE ratios are arguably gamed - and dividends being cut throughout, I don't see that it's anything yet but knifecatching.
Yeah, they say you can't play market timing, but if I'd listened to them I'd be down about 40% - and of the whole, not just some play money on TBT.
Legitimately 40%.
"In other words, the economy is stabilizing."
~~~~
The downward trend has stabilized
on it's downward trajectory ...
for now ...
mp, RD:
Butting in, but the very qualified quote:
"At the present time, we can temporarily conclude that the worst of the decline in economic activity is part of history."
Can be qualified as ledge, floor or springboard...as a function of a slower rate of decline...
From mp's link:
On a year-to-year basis, the LEI fell 3.0% in April, after a 4.0% drop in the November-December months of 2008. The year-to-year change in LEI on a quarterly basis dropped 3.6% in the second quarter (based on April data). It is the second consecutive decline which is smaller than the 3.9% drop of the fourth quarter of 2008.
So if a slower rate of decay is stabilization, then clearly we have stabilization...temporarily...if you look at the plot of the YoY change in LEI vs. Real GDP in the linked pdf, there are two other upticks of the LEI that were larger in magnitude on the way down from the peak around 2005. Time will tell.
"Does that mean that they soon will stop concluding that?"
Something tells me you know exactly what it means.
I have been a long time stalker here as an avid reader, I want to thank CR for some fantastic data collection and real thoughtful analysis. And I also enjoy all the SA - Smart A$$ / supreme analysis input from all the contributors.
I often describe this site to my friends as a super bear / reality site depending on your view, I have always considered myself a long term value investor, and over the last two years I have slowly started to adjust to reality that value is not part of our current reality, and the I have slowly started to stop playing poker with people who stack the deck, change the rules and hold a gun to my head when I try to leave the game. (Which explains the slow adjustment, most of the hero's I know are in the cemetery.)
Today I dropped all pretences of investing, and sold what little stocks I had such as MMM, loss; COP, loss; PWE, gain; PGH, gain; and moved more of my 401K to cash which was very little remaining in mutual funds.
My question for the collective body, I have around 60% of my 401K in PIMP-CO, I mean PIMCO TOTAL RETURN INSTL, not much but hey for me its a big amount. Should I move it to cash?
All flames and thoughtful comments welcomed, and thanked in advance.
Even if I don't like them.
You people are unbelievable. Do you expect a forecaster to be God? Do you want it written in stone?
Kasriel and Bangalore have an excellent track record.
broward> Define your goal.
capital preservation-ish - picking up a $1500/mo mortgage with a <5% fixed 30 yr is not stressful, and even less so if all the Fed pumping leads to 70's inflation or worse.
"But with earnings continuing to show negative - the PE ratios are arguably gamed -"
Feds have to run the P/E at less than true growth rate to keep the credit bubble intact.
energyecon- "Time will tell."
Exactly, people, time will tell. The data (remember that stuff) are pointing up, not down.
That's a good sign.
One of our vehicles has limited options, one of which is PIMCO total return. I've held tight given Gross' abilities to handle bonds. (no snark remarks, please, he does know his stuff). no loss of funds there.
Am now considering moving that out into MM alternative. If the treasury market pukes (a legitimately great phrase), then I expect that fund - almost all bond funds - to get toasted. Even if they are participating in Timbabwe's PPIP.
Bearly: Bigger cajones than I've got...
kilroy> I'd suggest AR-15 rifles.
All out of stock, too late - besides the geniuses in the state legislature implemented their own AWB (which didn't expire after 10 years like the federal one), so the good ones are illegal here.
" The data (remember that stuff) are pointing up, not down."
~~~~
The dead cat's paw pointed up as it bounced ...
"The dead cat's paw pointed up as it bounced ... "
I rest my case.
Data point:
TSMC to re-hire hundreds of workers
by Warwick Ashford, Computer Weekly
Thursday 21 May 2009
TSMC, one of the world's largest computer chip manufacturers, is to re-hire hundreds of workers who were laid off because of the economic downturn.
Morris Chang, chairman of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, has declared the worst of the economic crisis is over, according to the Financial Times.
mp:
No, I don't expect them to be God.
But forecasters are akin to pilots in that they can read the instrumentation in the cockpit. Unfortunately, the instrument panel got trashed with a load of green paint since last year, so the gauges are kinda hard to read.
Gee, is that 600 feet or 60000 feet?
But will this stick? And they provide as big a non-answer as anybody else.
"capital preservation-ish - picking up a $1500/mo mortgage with a <5% fixed 30 yr is not stressful"
I that you're still under the spell of high-leverage gains which won't happen again. Most property is still heavily leveraged, I think the only thing with more leverage is the bond market.
But I think the percentage bet is that Bernanke prints.
If your goal is to burn away the mortgage, I think it's better than 50/50 odds, can't judge the time frame, though.
mp,
You didn't notice that despite many replies you are the only one to see offense? I most certainly picked S&P500 out of the LEI for special scorn. I was clear on that point. I have other issues with other LEIs but chose to fire a rifle for the kill rather than let loose a shotgun in hopes of wounding several. Another bullet could have been aimed at U-3 and its history, scope and adjustments. IMO some of the LEI are broken, several are too noisy and several are legitimately lower. Taken in aggregate you cannot detect an inflection point. Outside the traditional measures there's precious little to support as well.
mp,
Exactly, people, time will tell. The data (remember that stuff) are pointing up, not down.
Wrong. The macro data is still pointing down, but at a shallower degree than previously. Do you think the dislocation in the bond market today was a sign of stability?
You seem to be the one having a problem with the data and other people's interpretations thereof.
Not trying to pick a fight, but I don't get your hostility.
"And they provide as big a non-answer as anybody else. "
Homedad, sorry, but just keep telling yourself that as the train leaves the station (another metaphor).
Have a good day.
@mp
I am not sure anyone is diputing things have stabilized (more or less) at a lower level. The question is the direction of the next leg. A lot of small businesses are just barely hanging on and running on fumes of whatever cash/credit they still have available. The situation CAN NOT remain stabilized at this level very long. If there is not a noticeable UPTICK in the next three months then there will definitely be a DOWNTICK.
I see nothing to make me feel optimistic.
Chainsaw, it isn't hostility, it's frustration.
Continuation is something that's genetically programmed into everyone's mind. You either shake that off, or you don't.
Most folks assume that tomorrow will be just like today. That's continuation theory.
Have a good day. I've got other work.
broward> But I think the percentage bet is that Bernanke prints.
I don't think he really has any other options. The Resident and Congress are going to keep spending and who else is buying but Ben? It's like a game of musical chairs, except they have no intention of stopping the music as they keep removing the chairs. When the musicians finally do get tired, it'll be a free for all for the last remaining chair or everyone will just stop and look around and find no chairs. They aren't allowing for an orderly exit for the excess.
novanglus (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 9:02 pm
capital preservation-ish - picking up a $1500/mo mortgage with a <5% fixed 30 yr is not stressful, and even less so if all the Fed pumping leads to 70's inflation or worse.
A +2% CD is 7%-points higher than a -5% mortgage.
folks too doomy, the LIBOR, TED and VIX are all positive indicators of a recovery. so much doom. its all good. I need to look for a new job now.
What data would that be, mp?
One greenish shoot. Closing put off, sale at 116; appraisal at 90k, below average neighborhood. Now renegotiated at 100k. Friday closing (next week) maybe.
Clients that I never knew to have money problems, now are having them.
I am actually devoting a brain cell or 2 to buying a really cheap condo.
" The situation CAN NOT remain stabilized at this level very long. "
~~~
Exactly correct ...
and what is on tap ...
CRE defaults , CCdefaults , Home foreclosures, layoffs ...
Cali is the tip of the iceberg ... more states, counties cities, school districts to follow ...
bkuna is DONE.
BFT?
Office of Thrift Supervision - Press Releases
What's new on BankUn, ghost?
chainsaw - "Do you think the dislocation in the bond market today was a sign of stability?"
Exactly. The 1 thing the USG needs to protect above everything else is its reserve currency status and what faith there is in its ability to make good on its obligations. Transferring all the losses & risk to the USG from all the convenient distributed holes it found itself in over the years is hardly going to make the system more stable - Only makes the implosion that much more spectacular when it happens. And it's not like there isn't historical precedent for what happens when a country behaves recklessly with its obligations or currency.
Iceland isn't out of the question.
Closing banks on Thursdays now ?
mp,
Kasriel also predicted a "W" shaped recovery, where we would see an intermediate move up from the stimulus/govt support and then another leg down as the effects wore off. That made all the sense in the world to me. Perhaps that could explain the "temporarily conclude that the worst of the decline in economic activity is part of history" language.
I've always appreciated your comments.
Have a good evening.
Roast beef.
noc> A +2% CD is 7%-points higher than a -5% mortgage.
True - assuming we have confidence in the future value of the $, Also assumes that we trust banks to bring up rates with inflation, but I suspect they will lag enough to skim off depositor capital. They do have to recapitalize, after all - we can't expect them to fail - it's our patriotic duty now.
Adios BankUn!! Adios Fred Camner!!
BKUNA is closed, Liz. Finally, no word on a buyer.
FDIC: Failed Bank Information - Bank Closing Information for BankUnited, FSB, Coral Gables, FL
Liz,
You are regionally Space Coast correct? When is the last Shuttle mission? 11 months. Maybe 2 more mission extensions beyond that. Next? 2016 if we are smart. Okay, That's 6-7000 direct jobs and twice that indirect. You still want to be holding a condo? Not me.
WL Ross, Carlyle, Blackstone wining bidders.
Thanks ghost.
Liz does happy dance.
bearly wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 2:24 pm ...
"Transferring all the losses & risk to the USG from all the convenient distributed holes
it found itself in over the years is hardly going to make the system more stable - "
~~~~~
Bingo!
Not to mention that it is f'ing WRONG ...
Banksters losses aggregated on the public's balance sheet ...
Biggest heist in the history of the world ...
Bank Failure Thursday? And nobody stocked the bar?
John Kanas is back. Guess he didn't make enough selling North Fork. Timing is everything.
Wow, closing on Thursday, so at least my gut is still kind of working after being kicked in a number of times.
I don't think he really has any other options
He has at least two other options that I know of and I've learned not to underestimate the Federal Reserve. We've already seen that the status quo can persist for an irrationally long time. The bump in U.S. savings rate could go back into U.S treasuries and stabilize a sell-off by Asia. He could let a chunk of things default in conjunction with printing to mute apparent inflation. They could simply freeze bonds, eliminate redemption and assign a nominal interest rate, say 1%.
I agree that the situation sucks and is unstable but.... I think there's more risk here about outcomes than it appears. I think there's a couple of outcomes that none of us can predict.
Looks like a good bank-bad bank split. Guess who gets to be the bad bank:
"The FDIC and BankUnited entered into a loss-share transaction and will share in the losses on approximately $10.7 billion in assets covered under the agreement. The loss-sharing arrangement is projected to maximize returns on the covered assets by keeping them in the private sector. "
I meant in Miami, not space coast.
I'd live in it.
But am only devoting a few brain cells to it anyhow.
Actually so far, space coast is "only" down oh, a third, instead of half, as here.
Call Lefty - STAT!
Ouch, BKUNA closing to cost deposit fund $4.9B.
Good thing they just got replenished (well, got a bigger draw from the UST).
" I think there's a couple of outcomes that none of us can predict."
~~~~
How can one predict anything when the rules change daily ?
Bank United closure cost the FDIC fund $4.9 billion...
Ouch, BKUNA closing to cost deposit fund $4.9B.
It will almost certainly be more than that. Who's the sucker at this table?:
"The FDIC estimates that the cost to its Deposit Insurance Fund will be $4.9 billion. BankUnited's acquisition of all the deposits and assets of BankUnited, FSB was the "least costly" resolution for the DIF compared to alternatives.
In addition to the management team led by John Kanas, ownership includes WL Ross & Co. LLC; Carlyle Investment Management L.L.C.; Blackstone Capital Partners V L.P.; Centerbridge Capital Partners, L.P. LeFrak Organization, Inc; The Wellcome Trust; Greenaap Investments Ltd.; and East Rock Endowment Fund."
bANK fAILURE
DRINK !!!!
Been so busy, I have had no time to brew beer, but I got a killer stout, an IPA and a Red on tap, and tons of mead and other drinks in bottles. I'm have decided to celebrate my losses today. Note to self, stop obsessing and brew more.
Liz's happy dance gets a bit sadder. That's a lot of moolah. The people at the local branch were nice.
"I don't think he really has any other options."
Trying to follow this other thread you guys have going. I disagree, I think BB has an option - remember where he is spending most of his money - in the MBS market. He should politely tell Congress he is no longer going to support the Fannie/Freddie charade. Congress could fix the MBS market in a week if they wanted, by giving Fannie/Freddie full faith and credit. But they haven't lifted a finger to do it.
Max,
Can you expound? I guess you're saying that these new owners didn't step in to take a bath.
BFT!!!
Zion's!, Zion's!, Zion's!.
Come on people, chant with me.
KK> Been so busy, I have had no time to brew beer, but I got a killer stout, an IPA and a Red on tap, and tons of mead and other drinks in bottles. I'm have decided to celebrate my losses today. Note to self, stop obsessing and brew more.
That's a skill that will keep you in business if TSHTF - no matter what happens, we'll all want more beer!
I prefer:
More beer! More Beer!
To Zion's!
Remember the initial estimate for loss on Indy was 6.5 or so, final loss was 10.5
Not really, if the markets crash I will not be able to get the grains, and hops needed here, But fruit trees and bees may still be around, which explains the meads.
Trust me, a good mead makes that frog champagne taste like what is coming out of the treasury.
Leaning over to pour another killer stout, (here's hoping TSHTF does not hit, I have been through enough hurricanes that wiped out everything, it's not fun).
Max,
Can you expound? I guess you're saying that these new owners didn't step in to take a bath.
See the initial IndyMac loss projections.
I guess even CR wasn't ready for a Thursday Bank takeover ...
Congress could fix the MBS market in a week if they wanted, by giving Fannie/Freddie full faith and credit.
That depends on what you mean by "fix."
I'm trying to figure out why FDIC couldn't wait until tomorrow night. Any clues out there? How bad could things have gone--did someone leak the closing and FDIC then decide to pre-empt some kind of panic? Or are they just trying to make this the big story tomorrow while something else gets slipped by?
Scratching my bald head...
Went back to look at some old case Shiller data and checked the comments.
Much of the same crowd, but crowd was marveling over a mere, ummm, 6% decline in house prices.
And Jas posted without using the word dope.
Liz,
Don't worry about the locals. Since Indymac got taken over I left a smaller CD there. I went in when it was Indymac, I renewed as Indmac Federal and yesterday I extended as OneWest Bank. Every time it was the same three ladies.
Maybe they were actually at the point that there was no cash to give people when they went into withdrawl weekend funds. Or, there's another biggie for tomorrow?
"That depends on what you mean by "fix." "
Fix = keep MBS at normal spreads over Treasuries without Fed sponsorship of the market.
Fix = give foreign investors comfort that they are not exposed to Fannie/Freddie counterparty risk.
There is absolutely no reason BB needs to be printing money to support this market, when there is money out there that would invest in it if the govt did the right thing with Fannie/Freddie.
Those toxic twins are a long way from being fixed, but the MBS market could be fixed in a flash.
I'm not sure if this was covered elsewhere, but NY Times writer Andrews made a material omission from his personal financial hardship story. His wife filed for bankruptcy (her 2nd filing) in 2007 in the middle of their financial mess.
The Road to Bankruptcy - Megan McArdle
RE principal preservation:
Subtract another 1-2% each year for property tax.
"I'm trying to figure out why FDIC couldn't wait until tomorrow night. Any clues out there? "
FDIC are people too. They have Mem Day weekend plans.
"How can one predict anything when the rules change daily ?"
I have to admit, I did not anticipate the size of the response. My percentage bet was that the Feds would have given up about 1/2 through their current range of actions and gone deflationary.
This is an awesome album but only if you're over forty.
http://buysound.solo.net/In%20Like%20Flint%20Our%20Man%20Flint/01_Where%20the%20Bad%20Guys%20Are%20Gals.mp3
GD that is truly amazing that Andrews thought he could write a book about this and leave her bk out of it... no ethics on the NYT - but then we knew that...
Preparing a tax appeal & reviewed statute.
Weird taxation:
Old farm equipment is taxed at salvage value.
Non weird:
Assessor is now supposed to take mtg fraud into consideration--but maybe only when the state atty's office is actually prosecuting.
Must tear myself away.
I wonder if the FDIC estimated needing a 4 day weekend to get this corn riddled turd sorted out.
Hooray, BKUNA has been terminated. One less zombie stalking the land. No reason to wait until Friday when the whole process has been taking place in public.
kurtyboy (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 2:43 pm
I'm trying to figure out why FDIC couldn't wait until tomorrow night. Any clues out there? How bad could things have gone--did someone leak the closing and FDIC then decide to pre-empt some kind of panic? Or are they just trying to make this the big story tomorrow while something else gets slipped by?
Everybody and their uncle knew they were being taken over and who the bidders were, it was a Thursday due to the scale of the bank. Just look to WaMu as an example of when it goes pear shaped.
nothing on yahoo finance yet about the big tuna
"He should politely tell Congress he is no longer going to support the Fannie/Freddie charade."
So there you go, another option I didn't think of.
Reality is a lot more complex than people grasp and Ben's had a long time to think about the situation.
Cali cuts coming ...
A wave of layoffs imminent ...
LEI pointing up ...
who's getting the finger ?
Sorry, as much as people love to trash the Government workers, when the SHTF, there is no such thing as weekends, or Holidays, remember the military is Government and the saying there is your paided on a 24/7 basis, the lowest paid works all things considered. As a red headed stepchild, blood sucking contractor I get to see the good and the bad, so:
OK, now lets trash the Government workers.
..........Kung.Fu.....I predicted from early Feb. booming of foundry and DRAM based memory biz. when you were talking about stupid cold fusion ....Philly semi index jumped more than 60% from that time.....FYI, Hynix increased memory prices 10% more for long term contractors two days ago, i.e. PC makers.....this trend will coninue......chicken game was over long before......
"Earnings are always important, but "these days it's more about the 'C' and the 'A,'" says Valentin."
I'd walk a mile for some C & A
....or is that TLC...no wait...THC....No there needs to be an a too....Come to think of it, I'd walk a mile on THC for T & A TLC. That's it.
Ok, I'm still here, very funny Misean.
we are all bad assets now!
"OK, now lets trash the Government workers."
Workers implies too much. So does employee. I prefer gov't tax eating parasites....and then there's the thugs.
can i hasz green shewts?
Well, as I said, I'm the red head stepchild, blood sucking contractor. So we get along OK, I do all the work, they get the credit and security.
The hub's contractors are very good.
Fix = keep MBS at normal spreads over Treasuries without Fed sponsorship of the market.
Fix = give foreign investors comfort that they are not exposed to Fannie/Freddie counterparty risk.
Those are opposites.
"Reality is a lot more complex than people grasp and Ben's had a long time to think about the situation. "
To be fair, he probably has had that conversation with Congress, but they are not willing to "go there", since giving Fannie/Freddie full faith and credit means taking their liabilities "on balance sheet", which spikes the national debt even more. So instead the govt does the dishonest thing and forces BB to rescue the world (supposedly).
Maybe a good strategy would be to step back from the MBS market for a few days, watch the spreads spike 200bps and mortgages go to 7%, have the MBA, NAR, etc scream all over DC, and see what the response is.
Sooner or later, though, he either has to support the market forever, Fannie/Freddie need to be fixed, or spreads do spike 200bps, since in their current state no one trusts them to cover losses 10 years out.
KK Re: Meads: Mead: It's Not Just for Vikings - Borborygmi - GOOD
Amtrust Bank-Cleveland Ohio- November 2008 Office Thrift Supervision issues Cease and Desist Order for unsafe and unsound banking practices-why? financial ratios below standards- Mortgage delinquecy exceeds 7%.
AmTrust Bank Cleveland Ohio class action lawsuit filed 1985- AmTrust Bank Cleveland Ohio settles 9-2007 with a cash payment of $14 milion.
AmTrust Banks violates federal regulations in mortgage lending operations.
FDIC does Nothing.
Office of Thrift Supervision does Nothing- Wall Street Journal 4-25-09 states that Senator George Voinovich Ohio Republican
and Stephen LaTourette Republican Representative Ohio have bought pressure to bear that OTS leave the AmTrust Bank alone. Mayor Frank Jackson Cleveland Ohio does the same ,don't close this Family owned piggy bank.
Treasury Department Special Agent David Smith 12-4-2007- AmTrust bank did nothing wrong but his writing is based on OTS.
President Obama is a nice man with great ideas-but in this country the rich and the powerful who break all the rules live at the expense of the majority of the American people. The Congress does nothing since they wont bite the hand that feeds them.
AmTrust Bank is living proof of this corrupt system-Obama can't make the changes for good-because evil wins each and everytime-Do the math- Do the resarch.
Michael LittleBig Cleveland Ohio
5-21-09