Remembering back to 1980s recession, many hotels had to jack up prices as occupancy went down, creating a rather vicious cycle that ended for some (many) in BK tears.
Thinking back to 2003-2007: there was a glutt (I'm thinking of you Marriott) of hotels built or in process, and they had to have elelvated prices to pay for the new-builds...and at the same time the big chains also demanded during this cycle that the owners under-go expensive updates and remodeling in order to continue their franchise...so I see quite a few BKs in the near future, and a further reduction of our servie-sector economy despite all the tax-law accelerated deprication crap meant to get them over the rough times.
My spouse spends at least one week a month (last year it was two weeks a month) at a hotel in San Jose. Because his company is on unpaid furlough next week, the hotel will only be half-staffed that week as well. Ouch. He knows the entire staff, nearly everyone at the hotel is working reduced hours and staff vacancies are unfilled.
blackhat, it seems they are lowering room rates this time - but there is just too much inventory (overbuilding the last few years really hurt), and too little demand.
Hotels get crushed at these occupancy levels. It isn't just the debt - the labor costs kill them. Time to board up a few floors ...
We rented a house on the beach in SC. I got an email notifying me it was time to pay off the balance. The women who answered the phone was the same name on the email so I said "Hey, I got an email from you." Her reply was "Oh, you must be one of the people on my 'Bad People' list."
Apparently a lot of people put a down payment on a beach rental and are not paying the remainder.
So much for those McBeach shacks. My guess is the NC/SC beach rental and hotel scene is going to be a tad bit slow this year.
yes, this hotel was completely upgraded within the past 18 months. HIs company can survive unpaid furloughs and deep travel restrictions much longer than this hotel can!
Good work as always. It's that service-side labor that is going to really dent the glimmer of shards of scintilla of recovery IMO. Normal Manufactoring, plus Auto & Auto derivative, plus mom&pop/small business (non-restaurant), plus corporate attrition, plus hospitality & food, plus aerospace and derivative, plus energy & derivative. I just don't see the soaker for excess labor, not just now, but in a year, or 5 years.
hmm the markets reflect reality today! equities down, treasury yield up and gold up! maybe the fed took a break today... clicking the green mouse button causes severe carpal tunnel... poor ben.
These depressed RevPAR figures have persisted so long I think we may see some of the weaker hands go dark.
Among the most familiar brands, a sign of distress is franchise downgrade - national franchise properties reopening as an independents or downmarket brands.
Freddie reports the average 30-yr mortgage rate slid to 4.82% from 4.86% in the past week, while the 15-yr saw 4.50% from 5.52% and the 1-yr adjustable rate bumped up to 4.82% from 4.71% (Reuters)
It's going to be grim when the new flu gets rolling in Pakistan...
Pakistan Fighting Leads to World’s Worst Refugee Crisis in 15 Years
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Not since the 1994 genocide in Rwanda has there been a such a large-scale humanitarian crisis as the one currently growing in Pakistan. As a result of the massive offensive that Pakistan’s military has launched to root out the Taliban in the Swat Valley, about 2.3 million people have become displaced, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
But unlike Rwanda, where most of the refugees had access to tent shelters, only 130,000 Pakistanis are being accommodated in sweltering camps in the Mardan and Swabi districts. Most of the two million refugees are being squeezed into the homes of friends or relatives, with as many as 85 people per house. Aid workers and political analysts have warned that if something isn’t done to relieve the situation, the poor living conditions could lead to even more political instability in the region. AllGov - News - Pakistan Fighting Leads to World’s Worst Refugee Crisis in 15 Years
"something will eventually lead to more employment "
There's plenty of insurance salesman jobs, I used to get daily email with a time and place for "scheduled interviews". But those emails stopped after I replied that "it's probably a bad idea to spam angry & unemployed people and then provide a specific time & location where they can find you".
For stays of more than a couple nights, I've stopped using hotels and started using private apartments. Typically one bedroom, with stove, fridge, linens etc. Saved a fair bit of money- not only are prices lower, but I can fix some of my own eats. Spent two weeks in Paris not long ago, in a great location, for less than 500 euros a week.
I guess the landlords figure they can make a better profit catering to people like me than long term renters. Typical owners are artsy entrepreneurial types who work from home, and use it as a way to earn a bit of extra (cash, under the table) income.
Freddie reports the average 30-yr mortgage rate slid to 4.82% from 4.86% in the past week, while the 15-yr saw 4.50% from 5.52% and the 1-yr adjustable rate bumped up to 4.82% from 4.71% (Reuters)
And what's this doing to mortgage apps? All refinancings, very little purchase apps. People who are refinancing are, generally, in savings mode.
"Freddie reports the average 30-yr mortgage rate slid to 4.82% from 4.86% in the past week, while the 15-yr saw 4.50% from 5.52% and the 1-yr adjustable rate bumped up to 4.82% from 4.71% (Reuters)"
Due entirely to Fed money printing. Entirely. By the end of the year they will own about 20% of the outstanding MBS market, and all of the 4s and 4.5s.
"What did I tell ya about TBT? Up 4% today so far. "
Rich I am not a "blind follower" when it comes to investing, but this is the second time that considering your advice has paid off for me (first was SLW); thanks for sharing your insight
at least from my point of view if more investors than not had the view that 6 months down the road our economy given the current choices would still be deteriorating then I believe the market would be down 4000pts, bouncing between 4K and 5K for a few years before picking back up.
So given the incremental down, and up, it's just background noise.
So, no, the market representing an aggregate of investors is not behaving according to reality, IMO until that aggregate subscribe to a view that we are structurally handicapped and likely to be so for years, not months, and by years I mean decade.
CR: something will eventually lead to more employment - it just is hard to see what right now - or when.
when real job skills can't you a job, people "fall back" on more primitive demands to earn their bread. we have nothing left to 'pump growth' except that demon sex. prostitution needs its own national/regional indeces (defined broadly, shall we say).
its a supply demand thing in classical terms. more supply, lower prices, more demand.
it's lowest-common pay-denominator now. Microsoft attritioned out expensive but mediocre engineers. Now they are looking for cheap engineers--possibly mediocre, but cheap. Typical pay back in the day for MS was 110K-130K for a quality engineer. 1 out of 10 is actually good.
It'll be interesting if the bond market crashes because it's been all the old fashioned evil deficit hawk fiscal conservative types that have been warning about that.
"It'll be interesting if the bond market crashes because it's been all the old fashioned evil deficit hawk fiscal conservative types that have been warning about that."
Interesting? I don't think you know what that word means.
Hmm.....
Ben (or was it Timmay) has more or less committed to intervening if the 10 year hits 4.5. So it seems like someone who's big enough could, theoretically, squeeze him by shorting treasuries and buying commodities.
"The Treasury market has cratered. The 10 year note has returned to the 3.30 percent level. Why did we crater?I think I have a solid answer(s) but wish I had thought this through earlier.
In the purest trading sense today is Friday. The treasury just announced $ 101 billion of new supply which will trade next week. ..."
Hmm.....
Ben (or was it Timmay) has more or less committed to intervening if the 10 year hits 4.5. So it seems like someone who's big enough could, theoretically, squeeze him by shorting treasuries and buying commodities.
Politically the real limiting factor on Mental Ben is going to be the price of oil.
If it keeps shooting up his hands are probably going to be tied.
so now, in my best conspiratorial prose, what "happy news" or "facility" will be announced over the three-day weekend (no coincidence there!) to try and mitigate the moonshot in the debt market.
Oh one can only imagine what they have cooked up...
My brother worked for both and there's a fingerprint I look for now, too. The larger companies are ego-fied, which means a lot of politics and paper proof and standardized positions filtered on keywords. Ass-covering, really. I could very likely do a Flex certification in a few weeks and get a coding position quickly but my desire to be a low-level coder stuck in one venue is low.
I look for two things now - something easy & non-annoying in Boise or something interesting & low-annoying that pays enough to be in Seattle. That eliminates about 80-90% of the job listings.
It doesn't matter what Ben Bernanke does. He can only help one group by hurting another. To date, Ben has been hell bent on bailing out the finance industry (the minority) at the expense of majority.
Eventually the world will get "fed" up of watching good money get thrown after bad. The sooner the better.
What would really be sound economic policy would be for Obama to propose a change in the Federal Reserve act by removing the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve and make them focus on only one thing -inflation. With the amount of gasoline spread around it is not a good idea for the fire department to be responsible for both heat and light as well as fighting fires.
However, I am quite confident that this administration will not propose that - how else are they going to pay for all their spending besides inflating it away.. Note to fellow progressives- in 10 years the INCREASE in interest payments in a SINGLE YEAR on the national debt would be greater than the amount of money required over 5 years to provide health insurance to all Americans.
I understand the point, I'm just wondering if that inflexion point involves mohawks, leather, sawed-off shotguns, nose-rings, and small tribal like road-gangs sweeping across the post-apocalyptic landscape in search of refined gasoline...
One thing to remember about the movie Mad Max, that dude with the helicoter was very well equipped. The rest were not so fortunate when trouble came knocking.
Bernanke's helicopter only makes drops on wall street. It's no wonder the financial industry is rallying while main street is fighting for its life.
Not only well written, but the bond market is the best place to watch for the final seal to be broken. The final apocalypse starts and ends in the bond market.
In all seriousness, if you ran the PPT, what would be your MO?
You know that you can't lift the market on your own. You have to co-opt market participants. The best way to do it would be to use PPT powers to help build confidence.
Is today a day that the markets need a shot of confidence?
"do not try to bend the anvil, but instead let the anvil bend you."
Could this be muni bond fallout?
(If California won't find the money, the money must find California.)
Calibabwe... One of the larger dependent states in Ameribabwe... Print up some of those trillion dollar notes to use for rolling papers in the new reality..
U.S. Faults 6 Thrifts, Regulator for ‘Inappropriate’ Backdating
By Margaret Chadbourn
May 21 (Bloomberg) -- The Office of Thrift Supervision has authorized or allowed “inappropriate” backdating of capital injections at six institutions including IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the U.S. Treasury’s inspector general said in a report.
The failures in oversight are “very serious” and included a senior deputy director’s instructions last year that a lender add capital and backdate, and another case where a regional director authorized the accounting, the inspector general said in the report released today.
It’s “alarming that such high level OTS officials’ were not only aware” of two revisions of the capital recordings, but “directed or authorized the thrifts to backdate the capital contribution,” said Susan Barron, audit director in the Treasury’s Office of Inspector General. U.S. Faults OTS, Thrifts for ‘Inappropriate’ Reports (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
I found this on a Yahoo forum and thought it was pretty funny!
Democrats announced today they are changing their emblem from a donkey to a condom because it more clearly reflects their party`s political stance. A condom stands up to inflation, halts production, discourages cooperation, protects a bunch of dicks and gives a sense of security while screwing others.
"The Office of Thrift Supervision has authorized or allowed “inappropriate” backdating of capital injections at six institutions including IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the U.S. Treasury’s inspector general said in a report."
Holy heebajeebus...WTF kinda kinky crap is "backdating capital injections"?!?!
Once the Narrow USD index goes below 78, I think we'll see a rapid move down in US equities, oil will sell off, which will cause most markets globally to follow suit, which will cause fear, which will cause the USD to rise again for the 3rd time where it will glide down until there is a brutal bear market ~Sept where it suddenly becomes apparent there is no 2nd half recovery, and a lot of garbage still needs to dealt with come next spring. Just felt like prognosticating
Spain is being held together by duct tape. The unemployment rate in Spain is approaching 20%. And their real estate bust is a monster. The pain in Spain stays mainly .....
Ireland and the Baltic Countries are total basket cases too. Greenspan and wall street really did a number on the global eCONomy with all that real estate tomfoolery.
Comrade Misean is Dope
The Bush appointed anti-regulator OTS chief apparently allowed IndyMac to give one set of books to shareholders, and then let them file an accurate set of books after the public SEC filing with huge writedowns included. Heard about it months ago, must be the same story. I wonder who the others were/are
edit: no need to correct me, just saw energyecon's post of the bberg story. I guess backdating capital contributions would be a sneaky little way of pretending there was a period when they weren't insolvent. File it under Approved Accounting Fraud
I have elsewhere posited a prostitution index as a measure of the strength of the economy. If one could obtain accurate data regarding number of prostitutes in an area, average transaction amount, average number of transactions per prostitute per day, and track that over time, I think that one would have an exceptionally sensitive measure of the strength of a given economy.
I think prostitution is such an interesting measure because of its unique characteristics. There is the relative ease of entry into a trade that consists of selling such a commonly available product which is inexplicably always in demand, juxtaposed against a strong social stigma, high personal and health risk and potential legal penalties. A certain degree of desperation and lack of alternatives is presumably needed to compel someone to pick up the oldest profession.
I agree that supply and demand would apply. A booming economy would show increased price and increased number of transactions per prostitute, but a downward pressure on the number of sex workers to reap those rewards. In a distressed economic setting, it could be expected that there would be more competitors for relatively fewer transactions would push price down, while the number of transactions per provider would also be lower.
As much as I like the leveraged ETFs, I'm sure you all remember the counterparty risks we were discussing last fall.
In a nonlinear financial event, where the face value of your ETF explodes, will there be a counter-party to pay out? What happens if the market makers stop bidding because they're afraid of holding the bag?
Lucifer, the poster here, has done a great deal of research about this, and his conclusion is the price is coming down.
There is also the suburban method. Cruise yard sales until you see the famous "hot mom" Then buy some crap with a hundred dollar bill. When she exclaims "I can't make change for that! By goblin, that is why I am selling my Kenny G CD's. I sorely need the money!"
Continue eye contact
Wink
Then say "I bet you have more Kenny G CD's inside."
Is Douche-bank planning a secondary offering? I can't figure out why their shares are rallying so hard lately. Especially given their leverage and CRE exposure.
Pettis is back from travelling and has a new post up To show how confused the debate has become, and how unlikely we are to see a good resolution, I recently participated in a panel with a Chinese economist from a leading local investment bank who gave an impassioned argument against financial protectionism in the US. Among her claims were that China is totally open to foreign investment whereas the US and the West are almost wholly closed to Chinese investment which, she seemed to think, was extremely unfair. This is a claim I have heard so often in China that I am worried that it has become entrenched in local thinking.
The economist argued as evidence of this unfairness that that any foreigner could start a joint venture in China, or engage in any form of FDI, whereas the opposite was almost impossible. But this is mistaken on many counts. First of all, the restrictions on Chinese investments abroad have not been on FDI or other related start-ups and joint ventures. They have occurred when Chinese companies tried to buy large, existing companies that were considered, rightly or wrongly (and more often wrongly, I think), strategic assets.
I'm sure you are right. But in Barcelona today, the sun is shining. The tourists are flocking shoulder to shoulder down the Ramblis. Money is being spent in all the best restaurants. And all the big yachts are still parked in Barceloneta, ready to roll.
In Madrid, every restaurant is jammed packed with cigarette smoke. And if you complain, they'll kick your ass out.
Eighty-five percent of the students reported feeling stress in their daily lives in recent months, with worries about grades, school work, money and relationships the big culprits.
These students complained of trouble sleeping, having little energy or feeling down or hopeless -- and most hadn't gotten professional help. Eleven percent had had thoughts that they'd be better off dead or about hurting themselves.
--Almost a quarter of those with a parent who had lost a job during the school year showed signs of at least mild depression, more than twice the percentage of those who hadn't had a parent lose a job. More than twice as many students whose parents had lost a job said they had seriously considered ending their own life, 13 percent to 5 percent.
Regarding Spain. Is there really any other option when the bill is coming due and you know you will never be able to pay it? You reach a point where the end game is liberating.
I'm sure Iceland would have enjoyed their ability to borrow more if they had been able to foresee what was coming.
"They have occurred when Chinese companies tried to buy large, existing companies that were considered, rightly or wrongly (and more often wrongly, I think), strategic assets."
Look at what has been happening with the Chinalco-Rio Tinto deal. I think the goings on in that deal have been unfair to Chinalco.
Do you have other thoughts on how to short the long end? I've thought of shorting TLT and EDV, but the extra juice from the 2x is nice (when it's moving the right way). The volumes on EDV are also very low.
A guy I still do some work with at Merrill (don't throw anything) sent me a Credit Suisse paper on the leveraged ETFs that also highlights the risks and the poor correlation to their indexes when things are moving quickly. I see TBT as something of a momentum/crowd play, so it needs careful monitoring.
I may add some TLT shorts when I increase my bet against Ben (BAB).
Yet another story largely missed by the MSM. Further evidence that the Fed MBS buying is meant to benefit the financial institutions, not the consumer (who is arguably worse off by being suckered into continuing to support an underwater mortgage in many cases).
I was thinking if those students wanted to kill themselves because their parent lost a job, they must be tapped-out financially or one of those MEW people.
@Chainsaw: Not really a trader. So someone else will have to answer your question.
I just wanted everyone remember the discussion about counterparty risk that we had last fall. It'll be interesting to see how some of these new products perform if we end going through a rapid dislocation.
Of course, there is also outside regulatory risk such as the short-ban enacted in the wee hours of the night.
Eighty-five percent of the students reported feeling stress in their daily lives in recent months, with worries about grades, school work, money and relationships the big culprits.
It's got to be tough for them. When I graduated the economy was really healthy and I still remember having concerns about the job market.
we were looking online at the hotles in myrtle we usually stay in.... decent prices and expedia only beat by 200 over a week at most, probably get more of a deal if we call hotel direct, but then went to apple vacations and saw we could fly to all inclusive to cancun for fam of 4 cheaper than a week at myrtle..
decided against it as not quite as fam friendly....
two close friends an OB GYN and SF Insurance guy are taking their families camping in their <30 ft trailers....they have the money but are not stupid...
figure the only place that isnt suffering bad revPar are the 3 hedo resorts....
"shill
Ron Paul today on the House floor, predicting a revolution: "Is it my imagination, or have we lost our minds?""
I agree with almost every word, including his reference to something I've been thinking about, that our civilization is "losing its mind", in effect. We believe in nothing, and aggressively so. It is a prescription for pathological (violent) dementia. One of the best posters here posted some famous quote to that effect, that forgetting history precedes civilizational dementia. That isn't referring to a history you've studied that you don't believe; of course you study with the goal of finding something (good) to believe. Forgetting that, even if some parts weren't good, has killed us.
"I think prostitution is such an interesting measure because of its unique characteristics. There is the relative ease of entry into a trade that consists of selling such a commonly available product which is inexplicably always in demand, juxtaposed against a strong social stigma, high personal and health risk and potential legal penalties."
It's much easier to track than you think if you do so in places where prostitution is legally tolerated and regulated. There is even publicly traded adult entertainment (although that's probably not part of what you were considering.), I'm not sure how easy it is to get information though. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prostitution_in_Germany#Miscellaneous_events_since_2007
For it to be as sensitive a measure as I believe it would be, we would need realtime data. I want registered, legal sex workers who are required to log their daily stats in a public database for me to perform calculations upon, gorramit!
My mate mentioned something similar to your suburban method, and all the other quasi-prostitutions, such as trophy wives, MRS degrees, rent girl/boy arrangements, strippers. etc. I don't think that the existence of these more socially acceptable methods of trading sex for financial gain would hurt a prostitution index one little bit. In fact, they would provide the pool of marginal persons who could flux into and out of "true" prostitution according to the prevailing economic winds.
When everyone is flush with cash, an attractive person with few traditional skills could become a kept woman or man, if they couldn't find a job of their own. Their absence from the trade would contribute to the relatively lower number of prostitutes at that time. Once everyone starts going bust, a mistresses upkeep is an expensive luxury. Breakup with her and you can rent her as needed. Or any dozen like her.
For every Rio Tinto there is a Huiyuan. Unfair but not unwarranted. At least mining has assets more strategic than a juice maker, as evidenced by China -- one of the world's largest gold producers -- banning the export of gold bars/ingots (anything more than jewellery)
It's hard to give China sympathy when they stonewalled Blackberry for years while they tried to literally steal their tech and badge it with RedBerry. I don't begrudge where China is coming from, the USA was a prolific pirater of goods, copyright, and patents when it was a young country starting out. It's an entirely different matter when they try to label themselves the victims with respect to market access
Back To Rio Tinto, I think they were the biggest losers in all of that. They have huge debt and were being told that they couldn't make a deal to reduce it. .... waitaminute, wasn't Chinalco only denied the purchase of one (maybe two) mines because they bordered an Australian military base? Whatever, point stands. Chinalco has many other opportunities, they should be able to replace France and Britain in most of Africa within the next decade. Rio Tinto has a much more limited set of cash sources and a more immediate time frame.
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:42 pm
Oh, so your solution is to get more people on reality TV? How do you think society progresses? By entertaining each other?
You mean social discourse? That's pretty much how it happens, yes. People sit around and talk. It produces art and culture. When it happens, it's called a golden age.
Or do you mean technology, which is only vaguely related to society?
Let's hear you solutions, genius.
Not trying resolutely to create the future from a 1960s science fiction novel while crowing "GET A JOB, SAMPFAG". There's a good start. Getting people used to not having kids and trying to shift away from a model of personal success that involves getting the biggest trove of loot would be a good start too, as we are running out of railroad real fast for the current "breed all you want and rape the land" strategy.
What part of you living in a post-industrial society that needs about a tenth of its current population, if that, to function do you fail to appreciate? Oh yeah, the part where you wouldn't be able to jack off about how smart you are while screaming "GET A JOB SAMPFAG". Grow up.
re: overcapacity
For our current consumption basket, there definitely is overcapacity (allocation thereof is a different matter.) In the past, when there has been overcapacity the successful response was to build monuments. What modern monuments might we be build until we can shift to a different consumption set that makes better use of productive capacity?
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:53 pm \ What modern monuments might we be build until we can shift to a different consumption set that makes better use of productive capacity?
I was thinking on the way in to work that the kind of change that is needed is just not possible unless there is a crash or a messiah.
To me, a Christian is someone who embraces poverty, truth, works to bring the poor a better life, and believes that the material world is but an illusion. To actually live that is life shattering. You do not get there with divine intervention or something in your life is so huge that you have to rewire your brain to deal with it.*
I am only familiar with Western Eurpean Christianity. Other reliogions may just be as valid. I deny any affiliation with the 700 club, GOP, and/or bible nazis.
"It's much easier to track than you think if you do so in places where prostitution is legally tolerated and regulated."
Just so. But in my ideal world where everything happens to make my spreadsheet all textbook, it would be legal and regulated everywhere. Then the index could be really interesting as you could compare economies to one another based on their index rating.
I'm sure that other sin industries could be used in a similar fashion. I just like this one so much because it is based on a transaction that virtually anyone could conduct to trade in a commodity that absolutely everyone has. Admittedly, relative values may differ based on the prevailing community standards of attractiveness, etc. But the limits on supply are entirely artificial and externally imposed, and economic desperation seems to erode those limits. The demand side is similar relative to economic bounty, producing a tidy equation for calculating economic status of a community.
Truly, there are many other fine measures for the same thing.
A question related to an earlier CR post on unemployment claims - I read that only 20% of current college grads have jobs (meaning a bunch of empty nesters are likely to have their graduating kids returning to reoccupy the nest) - I do not think the unemployed recent grads are figured in to the unemployment claims in any fashion, since they are not eligible for unemployment benefits - is this correct?
Given student loans are not dischargable in bankruptcy, there will be a bunch of stressed out 21-24 year olds back living at home . . .
I'm sure all the PIMPCO guys are calling BB's personal cell number today reminding him to save the housing market and jobs by expanding his QE commitment.
I suspect we haven't seen the last of Bernanke's QE bazooka. Afterall, he is buying more than a trillion in MBS, but only $300 billion in Treasuries? That doesn't compute. To some extent, BB's hidden hand is his strength. We don't know how much or when he will announce. As a result, the market will remain cautious of the printing press.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:49 pm reply Ignore user Investing in math and science is foolish as they are outsourceable skills
America rewards salesguys who blab well
See presidency
agree with last sentenance but i can not fill all my engineering and scientist openings i have available..yet not desperate to fill with mirror fog either...
just not enough out there, matter of fact, a lot of state environmental agencies are losing "american " workers and backfilling with "foreign nationals" who of course have problems getting on some secure properties, but do know their stuff...and do it cheaper...
seeing a lot of Africaners, kenyans, nirobians (?) taking these state openings, states reducing elder workforces, then rehire somehow to backfill with someone who hgas a different value on job and dollar ....
nova (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:54 pm reply Ignore user Fiduciary,
Rent a beach house, especially if you have kids. More space, a deck on the water. Parking is free. Life is good.
roger but the teen center, arcade and swim up juvi bar as well as the lazy river is the cats meow to 11 and 9 year old...means me and momma have our time...wink wink nudge nudge...
Gold mining may make a comeback in river valley near you. Labor intensive too! I just want the levi's franchise where the miners are. Oh, and the rice and beans retailing too. Eggs!
To me, a Christian is someone who embraces poverty, truth, works to bring the poor a better life, and believes that the material world is but an illusion. To actually live that is life shattering.
Agreed, and that's as a Taoist. People need a good dose of poverty, not to remind them how much plenty they have, but to remind them how little any of that plenty means.
What life have you, if you have not life together?
There is not life that is not in community,
And no community not lived in praise of GOD.
And now you live dispersed on ribbon roads,
And no man knows or cares who is his neighbor
Unless his neighbor makes too much disturbance,
But all dash to and fro in motor cars,
Familiar with the roads and settled nowhere.
Much to cast down, much to build, much to restore.
I have given you the power of choice, and you only alternate
Between futile speculation and unconsidered action.
And the wind shall say: "Here were decent godless people:
Their only monument the asphalt road
And a thousand lost golf balls."
When the Stranger says: "What is the meaning of this city ?
Do you huddle close together because you love each other?"
What will you answer? "We all dwell together
To make money from each other"? or "This is a community"?
There's a good start. Getting people used to not having kids and trying to shift away from a model of personal success that involves getting the biggest trove of loot would be a good start too, as we are running out of railroad real fast for the current "breed all you want and rape the land" strategy.
What part of you living in a post-industrial society that needs about a tenth of its current population, if that, to function do you fail to appreciate? Oh yeah, the part where you wouldn't be able to jack off about how smart you are while screaming "GET A JOB SAMPFAG". Grow up.
You know i respect every position you hold, and agree with many to boot..
but isnt the problem with the breeder quotes above again the problem that we face on every problem de jour..
That the ones that are responsible would heed and adhere and those that are irresponsible wouldnt...
seems we dont need kids having kids, babies daddies, etc. And a cynical side of me thinks that the world would rather kill the second borns of the producers than sterilize the non producers in the name of helping the village... "have we lost our minds" makes me wonder how far off could that be... and if 51% end up as non producers and vote against the 49% that do how long could "we" produce?
shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:21 pm reply Ignore user Ron Paul today on the House floor, predicting a revolution: "Is it my imagination, or have we lost our minds?"
"Insanity passed off as logic.
Pavel, are you around? Remember you didn't accept the insanity premise?
"Comrade Kristina (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:56 pm
I think I love you BR...You just touched the third rail nobody wants to talk about. The rate of breeding is not sustainable..."
This fact, which I accept, is a big problem for believers in minimum government. It must remind people like me that the goal is, more accurately speaking, limited government AND that population control will have to be dictated AND that it must be coordinated worldwide. This is very difficult to reconcile with the rest of what was once my political worldview. I say "once was" because it is blown to smithereens right now.
I agree with you there. Yet another area where the Chinese got it right.
Though most Western countries are reproducing at rates below the replacement rate, so you can hardly blame the USA, Japan, Russia, for that. It is the Third World that is largely responsible for the continuing population explosion.
Just so happens those are the countries that are the least technologically advanced.
FD, none of that will happen because the "producers" need cannon fodder to oil the cogs of war from time to time, not to mention shine their shoes, walk their dogs, mow their yards and any other tasks deemed beneath them...
"The 10yr is going to put a hurt on the wave of option arms resetting soon"
Actually, no, most OAs are indexed off of the MTA, which is the 1 year moving average. But don't worry, those borrower will explode all on their own, they don't need a push from higher rates.
What it will do is pressure the agency MBS market. Someone asked here before, can MBS trade through the 10 year?
I deny any affiliation with the 700 club, GOP, and/or bible nazis.
Nova,
LOL, funny we feel the need to qualify that not all christians are crazy....
funny that , as BR demonstrates, most religions, on paper , are almost exactly the same, its the method actors that read from the script that f*ck up the play....
The S&P negative UK watch is hilarious, drove a lot of UK analysts to tears. If not tears, complete denial "oh, these are the same people who rated junk AAA". I hope it's more than just a friendly pre-election warning and there is follow up action that happens well before the election, and it should if existing guarantees continue to be drawn upon.
Now they have to decide whether they really want to jump all in and announce something massive - at least as large as the MBS purchase - so probably something between $1 and $3 trillion.
What about a first pass with a second generation launch system that doesn't involve accelerating your reaction mass, more along the lines of an electromagnetic mass driver...Kilimanjaro has been scoped as a good location IIRC...explore that route while working out the materials issues that would need to be resolved for the elevator.
Comrade Kristina (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 2:12 pm reply Ignore user FD, none of that will happen because the "producers" need cannon fodder to oil the cogs of war from time to time, not to mention shine their shoes, walk their dogs, mow their yards and any other tasks deemed beneath them
Damn, i missed that memo...... ; )
i produce, was cannon fodder, was a warrior, was a target, was a ditchdigger, still mow my lawn (except when kids need aeropostle shirts then they mow for allowance hahah), and many other tasks normally deemed beneath someone because i learned how to do them out of necessity....
so maybe not all producers are that bad....
Bender: I take shop…you must be a fuckin’
idiot!
Johnson: I’m a fuckin’ idiot because I can’t
make a lamp?
Bender:
No, you’re a genius because you
can’t make a lamp…
Johnson:
What do you know about Trigonometry?
Bender:
I could care less about
Trigonometry…
Johnson:
Bender, did you know without
Trigonometry there’d be no
engineering?
If Ben doubles down, he'll push the dollar down even more. Making the FCBs question even more how much they want to hold all those dollar denominated "assets".
So short the long end and hedge for weak dollar.
The BAB (bet against Ben) is the most obvious trade in my lifetime (I'm 41).
If you look at the yield curve today, you'll see that what I've been saying has come true.
Ts of 5 year maturity and less are in demand.
But 10s are getting hit.
And long bonds (30s) are getting killed.
I said TBT was the best way to play 30s because the average maturity of the 9 bonds TBT shorts is a little over 25 years. Getting that right cinched it for me. I would hold TBT all the way to 5.5% yield on the 30 at least.
Today (or so) the 30 year T bond became obsolete. It serves no purpose for anybody, and the bagholders know it and are trying to dump on anybody dumb.
So it IS the Third World that is contributing to world population increases.
Should we sterilize them all?
Or maybe increase their standard of living? How would we do that? Send them some of our X Games athletes, or singers and dancers?
Or maybe give them drugs so infant mortality decreases so they don't feel they need to have 10 kids in case 5 die (drugs developed by...scientists!). Or give them water filtration systems to prevent the same effect (developed by...engineers!). Or better agricultural techniques and mechanized equipment so they don't need an army of children just to subsist (developed by...scientists and engineers).
"Today (or so) the 30 year T bond became obsolete. It serves no purpose for anybody, and the bagholders know it and are trying to dump on anybody dumb"
Except for insurance companies - see how that works
Fiduciary Doodie (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 2:10 pm reply Ignore user BR,
seems we dont need kids having kids, babies daddies, etc. And a cynical side of me thinks that the world would rather kill the second borns of the producers than sterilize the non producers in the name of helping the village...
Why subscribe to eugenics, especially by a metric as poor as your parent's economic success? That's an error, both moral and, I think, logical. Poverty, dysfunctional families and bad conditions ruin some people. Other people excel because it. Likewise, affluence ruins many and helps many.
If the child lacks virtue, blame the parent, but don't clame the child if the parent is lacking. Your circumstances of birth are accidental. You could have been born in a favela in Rio. Some readers here no doubt were.
If we all reacted the same way, we'd be predictable, and there's always more than one way to view a situation. What's true for the group is also true for the individual. It's simple: overspecialize, and you breed in weakness. It's slow death.
--Major Motoko Kusanagi
great so they make 40 bucks/oz to lose $1000. Sounds like Gordon brown strategy.ture to form..I am sure China is a ready buyer of all the IMF can sell. The idea of IMF dumping gold is a total bluff by the US.
So it IS the Third World that is contributing to world population increases.
Should we sterilize them all?
You are carrying the white man's burden, making arm-sweeping decisions about the best choice for the entire world (which just happens to be framed from your perspective, bon chance), treating everyone outside of umm, Christendom or whatever antique "we" you are assuming "we" are part of as if they were a homogenous mass of ignorant children that "we" can dispose as if "they" were chess pieces, and all the time "we" are a bankrupt fraud-state.
I think the world has had plenty of "our" help, thanks.
As for dancers and singers and xgames athletes, I will just say, I think people are not made into little mentats when they are 13, suited for only one role, and the ones I have met that were trained in that fashion (and I have known many) have universally been damaged individuals who profoundly resented the experience.
---"These students complained of trouble sleeping, having little energy or feeling down or hopeless "
---Tell them to take math and sciences, instead of dreaming of becoming professional X Games athletes.
Actually anything active will make them feel better. Running, hiking, swimming, aikido, math, chopping wood, cleaning the house.. anything. When you are feeling the blues, sitting around is the worst thing you can do. I know this from experience.
Looks like the economy is doing a headfake.
Remembering back to 1980s recession, many hotels had to jack up prices as occupancy went down, creating a rather vicious cycle that ended for some (many) in BK tears.
Thinking back to 2003-2007: there was a glutt (I'm thinking of you Marriott) of hotels built or in process, and they had to have elelvated prices to pay for the new-builds...and at the same time the big chains also demanded during this cycle that the owners under-go expensive updates and remodeling in order to continue their franchise...so I see quite a few BKs in the near future, and a further reduction of our servie-sector economy despite all the tax-law accelerated deprication crap meant to get them over the rough times.
--bh
Oh my... what happened to the 10-year?
Just when some of our bond bull friends were catching a break.
Such a tragedy.
My spouse spends at least one week a month (last year it was two weeks a month) at a hotel in San Jose. Because his company is on unpaid furlough next week, the hotel will only be half-staffed that week as well. Ouch. He knows the entire staff, nearly everyone at the hotel is working reduced hours and staff vacancies are unfilled.
blackhat, it seems they are lowering room rates this time - but there is just too much inventory (overbuilding the last few years really hurt), and too little demand.
Hotels get crushed at these occupancy levels. It isn't just the debt - the labor costs kill them. Time to board up a few floors ...
best wishes
It really sucks to have non-scalable fixed assets in a time of recession and contraction..... Dont feel bad for them the least tho...
If we go kermit, I'm just gonna quit.
We rented a house on the beach in SC. I got an email notifying me it was time to pay off the balance. The women who answered the phone was the same name on the email so I said "Hey, I got an email from you." Her reply was "Oh, you must be one of the people on my 'Bad People' list."
Apparently a lot of people put a down payment on a beach rental and are not paying the remainder.
So much for those McBeach shacks. My guess is the NC/SC beach rental and hotel scene is going to be a tad bit slow this year.
edited for stupidity
bh
yes, this hotel was completely upgraded within the past 18 months. HIs company can survive unpaid furloughs and deep travel restrictions much longer than this hotel can!
"Oh, you must be one of the people on my 'Bad People' list."
She wasn't talking about the beach house, nova.
GS upgrading banks Goldman Sachs Upgrades Large US Banks to 'Neutral' - CNBC
I'm beginning to get a little concerned about some of CR's graphs.
It seems the blue recession line doesn't necessarily continue all the way through 2009.
Is this a prediction . . . or mere happenstance?
rb,
Oh...I am slow at the best of times.
Thanks CR.
Good work as always. It's that service-side labor that is going to really dent the glimmer of shards of scintilla of recovery IMO. Normal Manufactoring, plus Auto & Auto derivative, plus mom&pop/small business (non-restaurant), plus corporate attrition, plus hospitality & food, plus aerospace and derivative, plus energy & derivative. I just don't see the soaker for excess labor, not just now, but in a year, or 5 years.
--bh
sportsfan, I just put the recession out a couple of months. If nothing changes the blue bar will keep expanding (not a prediction)
blackhat, something will eventually lead to more employment - it just is hard to see what right now - or when.
best to all.
hmm the markets reflect reality today! equities down, treasury yield up and gold up! maybe the fed took a break today... clicking the green mouse button causes severe carpal tunnel... poor ben.
These depressed RevPAR figures have persisted so long I think we may see some of the weaker hands go dark.
Among the most familiar brands, a sign of distress is franchise downgrade - national franchise properties reopening as an independents or downmarket brands.
confirmed ac, bonds getting creamed.
a sinking dollar will add to employment.... speaking of which how are we doing today....
Freddie reports the average 30-yr mortgage rate slid to 4.82% from 4.86% in the past week, while the 15-yr saw 4.50% from 5.52% and the 1-yr adjustable rate bumped up to 4.82% from 4.71% (Reuters)
It's going to be grim when the new flu gets rolling in Pakistan...
Pakistan Fighting Leads to World’s Worst Refugee Crisis in 15 Years
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Not since the 1994 genocide in Rwanda has there been a such a large-scale humanitarian crisis as the one currently growing in Pakistan. As a result of the massive offensive that Pakistan’s military has launched to root out the Taliban in the Swat Valley, about 2.3 million people have become displaced, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
But unlike Rwanda, where most of the refugees had access to tent shelters, only 130,000 Pakistanis are being accommodated in sweltering camps in the Mardan and Swabi districts. Most of the two million refugees are being squeezed into the homes of friends or relatives, with as many as 85 people per house. Aid workers and political analysts have warned that if something isn’t done to relieve the situation, the poor living conditions could lead to even more political instability in the region.
AllGov - News - Pakistan Fighting Leads to World’s Worst Refugee Crisis in 15 Years
"something will eventually lead to more employment "
There's plenty of insurance salesman jobs, I used to get daily email with a time and place for "scheduled interviews". But those emails stopped after I replied that "it's probably a bad idea to spam angry & unemployed people and then provide a specific time & location where they can find you".
dum luk, that's great news, too bad the folks that might actually benefit from those rates will never see them...
For stays of more than a couple nights, I've stopped using hotels and started using private apartments. Typically one bedroom, with stove, fridge, linens etc. Saved a fair bit of money- not only are prices lower, but I can fix some of my own eats. Spent two weeks in Paris not long ago, in a great location, for less than 500 euros a week.
I guess the landlords figure they can make a better profit catering to people like me than long term renters. Typical owners are artsy entrepreneurial types who work from home, and use it as a way to earn a bit of extra (cash, under the table) income.
What did I tell ya about TBT? Up 4% today so far.
Freddie reports the average 30-yr mortgage rate slid to 4.82% from 4.86% in the past week, while the 15-yr saw 4.50% from 5.52% and the 1-yr adjustable rate bumped up to 4.82% from 4.71% (Reuters)
And what's this doing to mortgage apps? All refinancings, very little purchase apps. People who are refinancing are, generally, in savings mode.
broward,
LOL. Quote of the day.
confirmed ac, bonds getting creamed.
That move is nuts... any idea what caused it?
Did the Fed open its mouth again or the treasury say they need to issue a bunch of new ponzi bonds?
"Freddie reports the average 30-yr mortgage rate slid to 4.82% from 4.86% in the past week, while the 15-yr saw 4.50% from 5.52% and the 1-yr adjustable rate bumped up to 4.82% from 4.71% (Reuters)"
Due entirely to Fed money printing. Entirely. By the end of the year they will own about 20% of the outstanding MBS market, and all of the 4s and 4.5s.
Have price controls ever worked, anywhere?
"What did I tell ya about TBT? Up 4% today so far. "
Rich I am not a "blind follower" when it comes to investing, but this is the second time that considering your advice has paid off for me (first was SLW); thanks for sharing your insight
I just put the recession out a couple of months. If nothing changes the blue bar will keep expanding (not a prediction)
CR, thanks for the clarification. I couldn't resist taking a meaningless poke since you're the graphmeister.
Tons of jobs at Amazon & Microsoft, too.
In fact, about 70% of the job listings I get on Dice.com now are for Amazon.
I just have no desire to work there.
Strong gold, oil, and commodities. Long bond getting bombed. Dollar at 5 month lows. Helicopter Ben is at work!
bleh,
at least from my point of view if more investors than not had the view that 6 months down the road our economy given the current choices would still be deteriorating then I believe the market would be down 4000pts, bouncing between 4K and 5K for a few years before picking back up.
So given the incremental down, and up, it's just background noise.
So, no, the market representing an aggregate of investors is not behaving according to reality, IMO until that aggregate subscribe to a view that we are structurally handicapped and likely to be so for years, not months, and by years I mean decade.
--bh
"it's probably a bad idea to spam angry & unemployed people and then provide a specific time & location where they can find you".
Hahahah... that's great.
CR,
Back to the employment report.
Looking at the initial (not revised) reports for initial claims since the recent peak 9 weeks ago.
oldest> 663K 654K 610K 640K 631K 601K 605K 637K 631K <today
I'm not a Nobel Economist, but it seems that your 4 Week MA should be coming back up. Not sure we've reached the top yet.
"That move is nuts... any idea what caused it?"
Geithner is testifying today I think.. maybe his testimony degraded the confidence level?
The US bonds are probably a knee jerk reaction to the UK rating watch. Face it, Mr. Bond is just waiting for a twitch before firing.
Have price controls ever worked, anywhere?
Price controls always work.
I suspect it's the side effects you're talking about.
CR: something will eventually lead to more employment - it just is hard to see what right now - or when.
when real job skills can't you a job, people "fall back" on more primitive demands to earn their bread. we have nothing left to 'pump growth' except that demon sex. prostitution needs its own national/regional indeces (defined broadly, shall we say).
its a supply demand thing in classical terms. more supply, lower prices, more demand.
broward,
it's lowest-common pay-denominator now. Microsoft attritioned out expensive but mediocre engineers. Now they are looking for cheap engineers--possibly mediocre, but cheap. Typical pay back in the day for MS was 110K-130K for a quality engineer. 1 out of 10 is actually good.
--bh
word from our treasury trader is a large central bank is selling today...but who knows.
Ben has to do something quickly.
30y up to 4.30
10y @ 3.33
must... press... the... button....
Whats going on with the 10yr?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
CR,
Hoocooodanode ate the rest of my post which read...
"Back to the employment report.
Looking at the initial (not revised) reports for initial claims since the recent peak 9 weeks ago.
oldest> 663K 654K 610K 640K 631K 601K 605K 637K 631K
I'm not a Nobel Economist, but is looks like your 4 Week MA should be coming back up"
10 yr is going asymptotic...
Yeah. I'm late.
Comment over on tickerforum: "One of these days they(stocks & bonds) are going to fall in tandem and keep falling....."
Just booked the Park Ridge, NJ Marriott on priceline for $68--listed price is $199. Good time to travel.
https://www.marriott.com/reservation/rateListMenu.mi
word from our treasury trader is a large central bank is selling today...but who knows.
I thought he went by 'bond prince'....
The Treasury was expected to announce planned issuance for next week on the order $100B+, but I haven't found the exact numbers yet.
I think it was going to be a mix of 2/5/7s.
benny got to the button just in time... its going back down now....
Then again, if Ben presses the button, the dollar falls harder, making Treasuries even less attractive ... oh dear.
Holy bond dumping, Batman.
Where are you guys getting free real-time 10 yr quotes?
I guess the whole 2 houses, 3 condos and 4 hotel rooms for everyone plan didn't work out too well...
Holy Crap.....saw the 10y up 1.7%...went to the bathroom, grabbed a cup of coffee and look again and it's now up 3.5%
This is either China, UK or Japan selling....the only three that could move it like this.
Ciao
MS
MS, or it could just be Jas...BWAHAHAHA
Where are you guys getting free real-time 10 yr quotes?
I'm getting them from a broker I use. I have an account balance, so they're not exactly free.
Yep - now THAT'S a green shoot!
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5ETNX#chart2:symbol=^tnx;range=5d;indicator=sma(20,50,200)+volume+rsi+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
Boy this Finance stuff is fun!...Bartender another Prozac Collada please.
It'll be interesting if the bond market crashes because it's been all the old fashioned evil deficit hawk fiscal conservative types that have been warning about that.
"Bartender another Prozac Collada please. "
Pffft! Lightweight. I'll take a triple benzo with a meth chaser, pronto!
Yep - now THAT'S a green shoot!
You need some lube for a green shoot like that.
"It'll be interesting if the bond market crashes because it's been all the old fashioned evil deficit hawk fiscal conservative types that have been warning about that."
Interesting? I don't think you know what that word means.
Seems we're in the lime line: spx 60m chart http://ibankcoin.com/chart_addict/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/spx1m1.png
Coming right up CMD! Would you like to "make it a double" for five bucks more?
Pffft! Lightweight. I'll take a triple benzo with a meth chaser, pronto!
Gee thanks Misean is Dope, now I have to change my shirt! hahaha!
AtC's Explanation... Its as good as any... Across the Curve » Blog Archive » Bond Market Ramble
(a must read bond site BTW)
shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 12:37 pm reply Ignore user Boy this Finance stuff is fun!...Bartender another Prozac Collada please.
In CA that's that a Prozac Colonic.
--gh
Hmm.....
Ben (or was it Timmay) has more or less committed to intervening if the 10 year hits 4.5. So it seems like someone who's big enough could, theoretically, squeeze him by shorting treasuries and buying commodities.
Across the Curve...
"The Treasury market has cratered. The 10 year note has returned to the 3.30 percent level. Why did we crater?I think I have a solid answer(s) but wish I had thought this through earlier.
In the purest trading sense today is Friday. The treasury just announced $ 101 billion of new supply which will trade next week. ..."
full post at...
[hat tip]
Second memo to Ben: printing money to keep interest rates low might not work.
nades,
Sorry. Great minds think alike.
CK,
Five Bucks! Crap! Look, I got some reeeeeaaaaaal sweet RMBS in the car...AAA stamped stuff...care to trade?
Hmm.....
Ben (or was it Timmay) has more or less committed to intervening if the 10 year hits 4.5. So it seems like someone who's big enough could, theoretically, squeeze him by shorting treasuries and buying commodities.
Politically the real limiting factor on Mental Ben is going to be the price of oil.
If it keeps shooting up his hands are probably going to be tied.
Chainsaw - beat you!
(edited) Yep! 
so now, in my best conspiratorial prose, what "happy news" or "facility" will be announced over the three-day weekend (no coincidence there!) to try and mitigate the moonshot in the debt market.
Oh one can only imagine what they have cooked up...
Ciao
MS
"it's lowest-common pay-denominator now"
My brother worked for both and there's a fingerprint I look for now, too. The larger companies are ego-fied, which means a lot of politics and paper proof and standardized positions filtered on keywords. Ass-covering, really. I could very likely do a Flex certification in a few weeks and get a coding position quickly but my desire to be a low-level coder stuck in one venue is low.
I look for two things now - something easy & non-annoying in Boise or something interesting & low-annoying that pays enough to be in Seattle. That eliminates about 80-90% of the job listings.
Doesn't that go more like:
"I do not think that word means what you think it means..."
Nate, why does that make me grin? Disloyal.
ac,
I'm starting to think Ben likes to be tied up.
ick.
--bh
is not the relevant question from what level of unemployment?
yea thats it... i knew it looked a little off....
"Second memo to Ben: printing money to keep interest rates low might not work. "
What's not to work? Think of all the jobs that will be created in the printing trade.
Ah Misean, sounds like a deal but I think I'd like some protection on those, do you have AIG's number handy?
It doesn't matter what Ben Bernanke does. He can only help one group by hurting another. To date, Ben has been hell bent on bailing out the finance industry (the minority) at the expense of majority.
Eventually the world will get "fed" up of watching good money get thrown after bad. The sooner the better.
Kristina,
Just tried AIG's number and my cell phone kept ringing...wierd.
--bh
MrBeach I was getting them from the Yahoo page linked above... perhaps not real time tho.... http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
What would really be sound economic policy would be for Obama to propose a change in the Federal Reserve act by removing the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve and make them focus on only one thing -inflation. With the amount of gasoline spread around it is not a good idea for the fire department to be responsible for both heat and light as well as fighting fires.
However, I am quite confident that this administration will not propose that - how else are they going to pay for all their spending besides inflating it away.. Note to fellow progressives- in 10 years the INCREASE in interest payments in a SINGLE YEAR on the national debt would be greater than the amount of money required over 5 years to provide health insurance to all Americans.
Anyone notice the increase in flu med spam in the last week? Going to be easy money made by the morally impared on that...
Angry Saver,
I understand the point, I'm just wondering if that inflexion point involves mohawks, leather, sawed-off shotguns, nose-rings, and small tribal like road-gangs sweeping across the post-apocalyptic landscape in search of refined gasoline...
--bh
Just in Dollar just took a nose dive!.....
that is all.
shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 12:53 pm reply Ignore user Just in Dollar just too a nose dive!.....
do not try to bend the anvil, but instead let the anvil bend you...
--bh
LOL blackhat! Very odd...
BWAHAHAHA "Be the anvil"....
Visions of Wile E. Coyote
Hm, so stabilization in the financial system is resulting in instability in the bond/currency markets. Hoocoodanode? Better buy some more Bennie!
PPT - hello?
And so John Law's Perpetual Trading Company of the Indies draws to its inevitable conclusion.
PPT hotline:
(automomated voice)
Your call is very important to us, please hold and an operator will be with you momentarily...average wait time is 9 years.
--bh
bh,
One thing to remember about the movie Mad Max, that dude with the helicoter was very well equipped. The rest were not so fortunate when trouble came knocking.
Bernanke's helicopter only makes drops on wall street. It's no wonder the financial industry is rallying while main street is fighting for its life.
What a system.
there is no anvil
@PPT Hotline: Now pressing '0' for Operator.
Help. We're taking on water.
Let me put in a third plug for Across the Curve
.
Not only well written, but the bond market is the best place to watch for the final seal to be broken. The final apocalypse starts and ends in the bond market.
Thanks CS for crushing our hopes and dreams...
hello toast. You going to do a jebus ?
Dad, do we have AIG? We do son, even your grandchildren will have AIG.
In all seriousness, if you ran the PPT, what would be your MO?
You know that you can't lift the market on your own. You have to co-opt market participants. The best way to do it would be to use PPT powers to help build confidence.
Is today a day that the markets need a shot of confidence?
you're welcome CK
hopes and dreams just impair you here anyway
"do not try to bend the anvil, but instead let the anvil bend you."
Could this be muni bond fallout?
(If California won't find the money, the money must find California.)
I'm not worried, Wayne Angel said the Fed's balance sheet is infinite. That's inside info you can leverage to infinity and beyond.
Spanish bank to miss pymnt on bonds...
Caja Madrid to miss payment on bonds -report
| Reuters
Calibabwe... One of the larger dependent states in Ameribabwe... Print up some of those trillion dollar notes to use for rolling papers in the new reality..
U.S. Faults 6 Thrifts, Regulator for ‘Inappropriate’ Backdating
By Margaret Chadbourn
May 21 (Bloomberg) -- The Office of Thrift Supervision has authorized or allowed “inappropriate” backdating of capital injections at six institutions including IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the U.S. Treasury’s inspector general said in a report.
The failures in oversight are “very serious” and included a senior deputy director’s instructions last year that a lender add capital and backdate, and another case where a regional director authorized the accounting, the inspector general said in the report released today.
It’s “alarming that such high level OTS officials’ were not only aware” of two revisions of the capital recordings, but “directed or authorized the thrifts to backdate the capital contribution,” said Susan Barron, audit director in the Treasury’s Office of Inspector General.
U.S. Faults OTS, Thrifts for ‘Inappropriate’ Reports (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
No prob - Bennie'll buy 'em at par...
I found this on a Yahoo forum and thought it was pretty funny!
Democrats announced today they are changing their emblem from a donkey to a condom because it more clearly reflects their party`s political stance. A condom stands up to inflation, halts production, discourages cooperation, protects a bunch of dicks and gives a sense of security while screwing others.
"The Office of Thrift Supervision has authorized or allowed “inappropriate” backdating of capital injections at six institutions including IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the U.S. Treasury’s inspector general said in a report."
Holy heebajeebus...WTF kinda kinky crap is "backdating capital injections"?!?!
notafriend-I agree
TED spread looks to be at 2007 levels....interesting.
Apologies to Angus Young and the rest of them...
sing along...
YouTube - Ac/Dc- T.N.T. with lyrics
See me ride out of the long end,
On your LCD monitor.
Out to crash the Treasury,
If you know what I mean.
T-Bonds to the left of me,
And T-Bills to the right.
Ben ain’t got no cred, he’s just printing bread,
And he started this fight.
Cause I’m TBT, I’m dyno-mite,
TBT, and I’ll win the fight,
TBT, I’m a powershare,
TBT, watch me explode.
Ben’s tricky, he’s smooth, but he’s gonna lose,
He’s a deluded man.
Public enemy number one,
Understand??
So lock up your savings,
Lock up your gold.
Lock up your real assets,
Don’t do as your told.
With Ben back in town,
He’ll burn everything down.
Cause I’m TBT, I’m dyno-mite,
TBT, and I’ll win the fight,
TBT, I’m a powershare,
TBT, watch me explode.
TBT, ooy
TBT, ooy
TBT, ooy
TBT, ooy
Once the Narrow USD index
goes below 78, I think we'll see a rapid move down in US equities, oil will sell off, which will cause most markets globally to follow suit, which will cause fear, which will cause the USD to rise again for the 3rd time where it will glide down until there is a brutal bear market ~Sept where it suddenly becomes apparent there is no 2nd half recovery, and a lot of garbage still needs to dealt with come next spring. Just felt like prognosticating
Thanks EHP, why do I suddenly have the urge to have a martini for breakfast though?
Spain is being held together by duct tape. The unemployment rate in Spain is approaching 20%. And their real estate bust is a monster. The pain in Spain stays mainly .....
Ireland and the Baltic Countries are total basket cases too. Greenspan and wall street really did a number on the global eCONomy with all that real estate tomfoolery.
Finance klepto-capitalism.
Comrade Misean is Dope
The Bush appointed anti-regulator OTS chief apparently allowed IndyMac to give one set of books to shareholders, and then let them file an accurate set of books after the public SEC filing with huge writedowns included. Heard about it months ago, must be the same story. I wonder who the others were/are
edit: no need to correct me, just saw energyecon's post of the bberg story. I guess backdating capital contributions would be a sneaky little way of pretending there was a period when they weren't insolvent. File it under Approved Accounting Fraud
chainsaw-excellent....
@ JimPortlandOR
I have elsewhere posited a prostitution index as a measure of the strength of the economy. If one could obtain accurate data regarding number of prostitutes in an area, average transaction amount, average number of transactions per prostitute per day, and track that over time, I think that one would have an exceptionally sensitive measure of the strength of a given economy.
I think prostitution is such an interesting measure because of its unique characteristics. There is the relative ease of entry into a trade that consists of selling such a commonly available product which is inexplicably always in demand, juxtaposed against a strong social stigma, high personal and health risk and potential legal penalties. A certain degree of desperation and lack of alternatives is presumably needed to compel someone to pick up the oldest profession.
I agree that supply and demand would apply. A booming economy would show increased price and increased number of transactions per prostitute, but a downward pressure on the number of sex workers to reap those rewards. In a distressed economic setting, it could be expected that there would be more competitors for relatively fewer transactions would push price down, while the number of transactions per provider would also be lower.
Alas, for the lack of reliable data.
As much as I like the leveraged ETFs, I'm sure you all remember the counterparty risks we were discussing last fall.
In a nonlinear financial event, where the face value of your ETF explodes, will there be a counter-party to pay out? What happens if the market makers stop bidding because they're afraid of holding the bag?
Nice one, chainsaw. Can't go wrong with a little Bon Scott.
Ron Paul today on the House floor, predicting a revolution: "Is it my imagination, or have we lost our minds?"
"Insanity passed off as logic.
Ignorance pawned off as wisdom.
Violence the tool of change.
Preventative wars used as tools of peace.
Slavery sold as liberty.
Unlimited supplies of paper money.
We ought to prepare ourselves for revolutionary changes in the not too distant future."
YouTube - Ron Paul: Current Conditions or Just a Bad Dream 05/19/2009
chainsaw,
Live version ACDC...reminds me of late 70's early 80s...
they were a great band
YouTube -
Alas, for the lack of reliable data.
Lucifer, the poster here, has done a great deal of research about this, and his conclusion is the price is coming down.
There is also the suburban method. Cruise yard sales until you see the famous "hot mom" Then buy some crap with a hundred dollar bill. When she exclaims "I can't make change for that! By goblin, that is why I am selling my Kenny G CD's. I sorely need the money!"
Continue eye contact
Wink
Then say "I bet you have more Kenny G CD's inside."
EHP,
Interesting spx TA video from that link you just posted. MarketClub Videos: S&P Update
I saw AC/DC live in the 1980s. Afterwards, my ears were ringing for the better part of a week. Killer show.
Is Douche-bank planning a secondary offering? I can't figure out why their shares are rallying so hard lately. Especially given their leverage and CRE exposure.
Pettis is back from travelling and has a new post up
To show how confused the debate has become, and how unlikely we are to see a good resolution, I recently participated in a panel with a Chinese economist from a leading local investment bank who gave an impassioned argument against financial protectionism in the US. Among her claims were that China is totally open to foreign investment whereas the US and the West are almost wholly closed to Chinese investment which, she seemed to think, was extremely unfair. This is a claim I have heard so often in China that I am worried that it has become entrenched in local thinking.
The economist argued as evidence of this unfairness that that any foreigner could start a joint venture in China, or engage in any form of FDI, whereas the opposite was almost impossible. But this is mistaken on many counts. First of all, the restrictions on Chinese investments abroad have not been on FDI or other related start-ups and joint ventures. They have occurred when Chinese companies tried to buy large, existing companies that were considered, rightly or wrongly (and more often wrongly, I think), strategic assets.
I'm sure you are right. But in Barcelona today, the sun is shining. The tourists are flocking shoulder to shoulder down the Ramblis. Money is being spent in all the best restaurants. And all the big yachts are still parked in Barceloneta, ready to roll.
In Madrid, every restaurant is jammed packed with cigarette smoke. And if you complain, they'll kick your ass out.
From a U.S. point of view, it's really pathetic that Britain gets put on negative credit watch and their currency rises against the dollar.
I guess the above goes a long way in explaining why Bernanke didn't foresee any risk with the fed's 100s of billions in currency swaps.
AP poll: Many students stressed, some depressed
Eighty-five percent of the students reported feeling stress in their daily lives in recent months, with worries about grades, school work, money and relationships the big culprits.
These students complained of trouble sleeping, having little energy or feeling down or hopeless -- and most hadn't gotten professional help. Eleven percent had had thoughts that they'd be better off dead or about hurting themselves.
--Almost a quarter of those with a parent who had lost a job during the school year showed signs of at least mild depression, more than twice the percentage of those who hadn't had a parent lose a job. More than twice as many students whose parents had lost a job said they had seriously considered ending their own life, 13 percent to 5 percent.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Rich,
Regarding Spain. Is there really any other option when the bill is coming due and you know you will never be able to pay it? You reach a point where the end game is liberating.
I'm sure Iceland would have enjoyed their ability to borrow more if they had been able to foresee what was coming.
"They have occurred when Chinese companies tried to buy large, existing companies that were considered, rightly or wrongly (and more often wrongly, I think), strategic assets."
Look at what has been happening with the Chinalco-Rio Tinto deal. I think the goings on in that deal have been unfair to Chinalco.
MrBeach,
Do you have other thoughts on how to short the long end? I've thought of shorting TLT and EDV, but the extra juice from the 2x is nice (when it's moving the right way). The volumes on EDV are also very low.
A guy I still do some work with at Merrill (don't throw anything) sent me a Credit Suisse paper on the leveraged ETFs that also highlights the risks and the poor correlation to their indexes when things are moving quickly. I see TBT as something of a momentum/crowd play, so it needs careful monitoring.
I may add some TLT shorts when I increase my bet against Ben (BAB).
"These students complained of trouble sleeping, having little energy or feeling down or hopeless "
Tell them to take math and sciences, instead of dreaming of becoming professional X Games athletes.
Is Kermit leading the 7th Cavalry today or is this all a head fake?
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:37 pm
Tell them to take math and sciences, instead of dreaming of becoming professional X Games athletes.
Yeah, that'll work. The world desperately needs more people ready to turn the crank on its overcapacity.
Genius.
Yet another story largely missed by the MSM. Further evidence that the Fed MBS buying is meant to benefit the financial institutions, not the consumer (who is arguably worse off by being suckered into continuing to support an underwater mortgage in many cases).
Fannie Securitizes to Boost Issuance, Liquidity : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
This is why I am looking at motor homes. Should be able to buy one at scrape metal price next year.
I was thinking if those students wanted to kill themselves because their parent lost a job, they must be tapped-out financially or one of those MEW people.
"Yeah, that'll work. The world desperately needs more people ready to turn the crank on its overcapacity.
Genius. "
Oh, so your solution is to get more people on reality TV? How do you think society progresses? By entertaining each other?
Let's hear you solutions, genius.
Inflation the Movie
LiveLeak.com - 1933 Pro-Inflation Propaganda Film
@Chainsaw: Not really a trader. So someone else will have to answer your question.
I just wanted everyone remember the discussion about counterparty risk that we had last fall. It'll be interesting to see how some of these new products perform if we end going through a rapid dislocation.
Of course, there is also outside regulatory risk such as the short-ban enacted in the wee hours of the night.
AP poll: Many students stressed, some depressed
Eighty-five percent of the students reported feeling stress in their daily lives in recent months, with worries about grades, school work, money and relationships the big culprits.
It's got to be tough for them. When I graduated the economy was really healthy and I still remember having concerns about the job market.
Nova,
we were looking online at the hotles in myrtle we usually stay in.... decent prices and expedia only beat by 200 over a week at most, probably get more of a deal if we call hotel direct, but then went to apple vacations and saw we could fly to all inclusive to cancun for fam of 4 cheaper than a week at myrtle..
decided against it as not quite as fam friendly....
two close friends an OB GYN and SF Insurance guy are taking their families camping in their <30 ft trailers....they have the money but are not stupid...
figure the only place that isnt suffering bad revPar are the 3 hedo resorts....
"shill
Ron Paul today on the House floor, predicting a revolution: "Is it my imagination, or have we lost our minds?""
I agree with almost every word, including his reference to something I've been thinking about, that our civilization is "losing its mind", in effect. We believe in nothing, and aggressively so. It is a prescription for pathological (violent) dementia. One of the best posters here posted some famous quote to that effect, that forgetting history precedes civilizational dementia. That isn't referring to a history you've studied that you don't believe; of course you study with the goal of finding something (good) to believe. Forgetting that, even if some parts weren't good, has killed us.
Chainsaw... sweet song...
"I think prostitution is such an interesting measure because of its unique characteristics. There is the relative ease of entry into a trade that consists of selling such a commonly available product which is inexplicably always in demand, juxtaposed against a strong social stigma, high personal and health risk and potential legal penalties."
It's much easier to track than you think if you do so in places where prostitution is legally tolerated and regulated. There is even publicly traded adult entertainment (although that's probably not part of what you were considering.), I'm not sure how easy it is to get information though.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prostitution_in_Germany#Miscellaneous_events_since_2007
For it to be as sensitive a measure as I believe it would be, we would need realtime data. I want registered, legal sex workers who are required to log their daily stats in a public database for me to perform calculations upon, gorramit!
My mate mentioned something similar to your suburban method, and all the other quasi-prostitutions, such as trophy wives, MRS degrees, rent girl/boy arrangements, strippers. etc. I don't think that the existence of these more socially acceptable methods of trading sex for financial gain would hurt a prostitution index one little bit. In fact, they would provide the pool of marginal persons who could flux into and out of "true" prostitution according to the prevailing economic winds.
When everyone is flush with cash, an attractive person with few traditional skills could become a kept woman or man, if they couldn't find a job of their own. Their absence from the trade would contribute to the relatively lower number of prostitutes at that time. Once everyone starts going bust, a mistresses upkeep is an expensive luxury. Breakup with her and you can rent her as needed. Or any dozen like her.
Ruh roh... 10 year yield heading up again - 3.34% now.
For every Rio Tinto there is a Huiyuan. Unfair but not unwarranted. At least mining has assets more strategic than a juice maker, as evidenced by China -- one of the world's largest gold producers -- banning the export of gold bars/ingots (anything more than jewellery)
It's hard to give China sympathy when they stonewalled Blackberry for years while they tried to literally steal their tech and badge it with RedBerry. I don't begrudge where China is coming from, the USA was a prolific pirater of goods, copyright, and patents when it was a young country starting out. It's an entirely different matter when they try to label themselves the victims with respect to market access
Back To Rio Tinto, I think they were the biggest losers in all of that. They have huge debt and were being told that they couldn't make a deal to reduce it. .... waitaminute, wasn't Chinalco only denied the purchase of one (maybe two) mines because they bordered an Australian military base? Whatever, point stands. Chinalco has many other opportunities, they should be able to replace France and Britain in most of Africa within the next decade. Rio Tinto has a much more limited set of cash sources and a more immediate time frame.
Investing in math and science is foolish as they are outsourceable skills
America rewards salesguys who blab well
See presidency
Gold rallying huge today. Hope y'all didn't sell everything to Cash4Gold.
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:42 pm
Oh, so your solution is to get more people on reality TV? How do you think society progresses? By entertaining each other?
You mean social discourse? That's pretty much how it happens, yes. People sit around and talk. It produces art and culture. When it happens, it's called a golden age.
Or do you mean technology, which is only vaguely related to society?
Let's hear you solutions, genius.
Not trying resolutely to create the future from a 1960s science fiction novel while crowing "GET A JOB, SAMPFAG". There's a good start. Getting people used to not having kids and trying to shift away from a model of personal success that involves getting the biggest trove of loot would be a good start too, as we are running out of railroad real fast for the current "breed all you want and rape the land" strategy.
What part of you living in a post-industrial society that needs about a tenth of its current population, if that, to function do you fail to appreciate? Oh yeah, the part where you wouldn't be able to jack off about how smart you are while screaming "GET A JOB SAMPFAG". Grow up.
Market Ticker Karl has an interesting post about the bonds selling off.
re: overcapacity
For our current consumption basket, there definitely is overcapacity (allocation thereof is a different matter.) In the past, when there has been overcapacity the successful response was to build monuments. What modern monuments might we be build until we can shift to a different consumption set that makes better use of productive capacity?
"daddyo (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 11:23 am
word from our treasury trader is a large central bank is selling today...but who knows."
we no know who serr treasuries...rearry we dunno. arr your base berong to us amerrica!
Fiduciary,
Rent a beach house, especially if you have kids. More space, a deck on the water. Parking is free. Life is good.
wow, gold blossoming today! up over 950!
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:53 pm \
What modern monuments might we be build until we can shift to a different consumption set that makes better use of productive capacity?
Space elevator or HELL platform gets my vote.
O.I.L., treasury yields, and gold all heading north now.
This is big big trouble if it keeps up.
I think I love you BR...You just touched the third rail nobody wants to talk about. The rate of breeding is not sustainable..
I was thinking on the way in to work that the kind of change that is needed is just not possible unless there is a crash or a messiah.
To me, a Christian is someone who embraces poverty, truth, works to bring the poor a better life, and believes that the material world is but an illusion. To actually live that is life shattering. You do not get there with divine intervention or something in your life is so huge that you have to rewire your brain to deal with it.*
"It's much easier to track than you think if you do so in places where prostitution is legally tolerated and regulated."
Just so. But in my ideal world where everything happens to make my spreadsheet all textbook, it would be legal and regulated everywhere. Then the index could be really interesting as you could compare economies to one another based on their index rating.
I'm sure that other sin industries could be used in a similar fashion. I just like this one so much because it is based on a transaction that virtually anyone could conduct to trade in a commodity that absolutely everyone has. Admittedly, relative values may differ based on the prevailing community standards of attractiveness, etc. But the limits on supply are entirely artificial and externally imposed, and economic desperation seems to erode those limits. The demand side is similar relative to economic bounty, producing a tidy equation for calculating economic status of a community.
Truly, there are many other fine measures for the same thing.
A question related to an earlier CR post on unemployment claims - I read that only 20% of current college grads have jobs (meaning a bunch of empty nesters are likely to have their graduating kids returning to reoccupy the nest) - I do not think the unemployed recent grads are figured in to the unemployment claims in any fashion, since they are not eligible for unemployment benefits - is this correct?
Given student loans are not dischargable in bankruptcy, there will be a bunch of stressed out 21-24 year olds back living at home . . .
I'm sure all the PIMPCO guys are calling BB's personal cell number today reminding him to save the housing market and jobs by expanding his QE commitment.
I suspect we haven't seen the last of Bernanke's QE bazooka. Afterall, he is buying more than a trillion in MBS, but only $300 billion in Treasuries? That doesn't compute. To some extent, BB's hidden hand is his strength. We don't know how much or when he will announce. As a result, the market will remain cautious of the printing press.
wow, look at TBT go!
Comrade Kristina (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:56 pm
I think I love you BR.
Well thank you. You can buy me a drink if I'm ever in your neck of the woods.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:49 pm reply Ignore user Investing in math and science is foolish as they are outsourceable skills
America rewards salesguys who blab well
See presidency
agree with last sentenance but i can not fill all my engineering and scientist openings i have available..yet not desperate to fill with mirror fog either...
just not enough out there, matter of fact, a lot of state environmental agencies are losing "american " workers and backfilling with "foreign nationals" who of course have problems getting on some secure properties, but do know their stuff...and do it cheaper...
seeing a lot of Africaners, kenyans, nirobians (?) taking these state openings, states reducing elder workforces, then rehire somehow to backfill with someone who hgas a different value on job and dollar ....
10 yr: 3.3357
nova (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:54 pm reply Ignore user Fiduciary,
Rent a beach house, especially if you have kids. More space, a deck on the water. Parking is free. Life is good.
roger but the teen center, arcade and swim up juvi bar as well as the lazy river is the cats meow to 11 and 9 year old...means me and momma have our time...wink wink nudge nudge...
Gold mining may make a comeback in river valley near you. Labor intensive too! I just want the levi's franchise where the miners are. Oh, and the rice and beans retailing too. Eggs!
3.37
Jas in the lion's mouth
Alas, poor Jasick
Is this it??? Endgame for Turbo Timmy and the Mad Doctor?
nova (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 2:01 pm
To me, a Christian is someone who embraces poverty, truth, works to bring the poor a better life, and believes that the material world is but an illusion. To actually live that is life shattering.
Agreed, and that's as a Taoist. People need a good dose of poverty, not to remind them how much plenty they have, but to remind them how little any of that plenty means.
What life have you, if you have not life together?
There is not life that is not in community,
And no community not lived in praise of GOD.
And now you live dispersed on ribbon roads,
And no man knows or cares who is his neighbor
Unless his neighbor makes too much disturbance,
But all dash to and fro in motor cars,
Familiar with the roads and settled nowhere.
Much to cast down, much to build, much to restore.
I have given you the power of choice, and you only alternate
Between futile speculation and unconsidered action.
And the wind shall say: "Here were decent godless people:
Their only monument the asphalt road
And a thousand lost golf balls."
When the Stranger says: "What is the meaning of this city ?
Do you huddle close together because you love each other?"
What will you answer? "We all dwell together
To make money from each other"? or "This is a community"?
Timbabwe calling Ben. Timbabwe calling Ben. We have a code red. Repeat. We have a code red.
WOW. Can US Treasurys be close to the tipping point ?
"agree with last sentenance but i can not fill all my engineering and scientist openings i have available"
Yeah, funny about that, those jobs seem to be in abundance. I guess there really is a demand for skills that improve the quality of life.
And BR, who do you think developed the technology to enable that blog of yours? A musician?
You seem to be anti-technology, but yet enjoy the benefits of it. There is a word for that....hypocrite, that's it.
yahoo finance will give you the 10yr bond
3.34
@Gav:
I doubt it. BB's helicopter can be reloaded at will. And as far as we know, he has the will. I suspect we have many more rounds to go.
The 10yr is going to put a hurt on the wave of option arms resetting soon (Credit Suisse reset chart
). Real estate has bottomed?
BR,
There's a good start. Getting people used to not having kids and trying to shift away from a model of personal success that involves getting the biggest trove of loot would be a good start too, as we are running out of railroad real fast for the current "breed all you want and rape the land" strategy.
What part of you living in a post-industrial society that needs about a tenth of its current population, if that, to function do you fail to appreciate? Oh yeah, the part where you wouldn't be able to jack off about how smart you are while screaming "GET A JOB SAMPFAG". Grow up.
You know i respect every position you hold, and agree with many to boot..
but isnt the problem with the breeder quotes above again the problem that we face on every problem de jour..
That the ones that are responsible would heed and adhere and those that are irresponsible wouldnt...
seems we dont need kids having kids, babies daddies, etc. And a cynical side of me thinks that the world would rather kill the second borns of the producers than sterilize the non producers in the name of helping the village... "have we lost our minds" makes me wonder how far off could that be... and if 51% end up as non producers and vote against the 49% that do how long could "we" produce?
Ben is puking right now... think he had too many green shoots the last few weeks... thats what binge drinking does to you...
Jas in the lion's mouth
Alas, poor Jasick
CR needs to call and see if he's OK.
Surely they must be close friends in real life.
shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:21 pm reply Ignore user Ron Paul today on the House floor, predicting a revolution: "Is it my imagination, or have we lost our minds?"
"Insanity passed off as logic.
Pavel, are you around? Remember you didn't accept the insanity premise?
Very nice BZ
"Comrade Kristina (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 1:56 pm
I think I love you BR...You just touched the third rail nobody wants to talk about. The rate of breeding is not sustainable..."
This fact, which I accept, is a big problem for believers in minimum government. It must remind people like me that the goal is, more accurately speaking, limited government AND that population control will have to be dictated AND that it must be coordinated worldwide. This is very difficult to reconcile with the rest of what was once my political worldview. I say "once was" because it is blown to smithereens right now.
"The rate of breeding is not sustainable.. "
I agree with you there. Yet another area where the Chinese got it right.
Though most Western countries are reproducing at rates below the replacement rate, so you can hardly blame the USA, Japan, Russia, for that. It is the Third World that is largely responsible for the continuing population explosion.
Just so happens those are the countries that are the least technologically advanced.
Hmmmm.....
I'm a teeny tiny bit freaked out right now...
10y bond 3.36% +0.21 (6.67%)
yahoo finance will give you the 10yr bond
3.34
I'm guessing it's 15 to 20 min behind though. Currently I'm seeing 3.366%
FD, none of that will happen because the "producers" need cannon fodder to oil the cogs of war from time to time, not to mention shine their shoes, walk their dogs, mow their yards and any other tasks deemed beneath them...
I heard that BB's copter lost some blades avoiding a collision with the Bond posse. Copter-blade maker in BK due to GM/Chrysler-supplier meltdown.
No flyovers by the Fed until 4th quarter turn-around in the market.
Today... One of many to come.
Trifecta - Treasuries, Equities & USD all tanking at once.
3.342
"The 10yr is going to put a hurt on the wave of option arms resetting soon"
Actually, no, most OAs are indexed off of the MTA, which is the 1 year moving average. But don't worry, those borrower will explode all on their own, they don't need a push from higher rates.
What it will do is pressure the agency MBS market. Someone asked here before, can MBS trade through the 10 year?
We might soon find out.
I deny any affiliation with the 700 club, GOP, and/or bible nazis.
Nova,
LOL, funny we feel the need to qualify that not all christians are crazy....
funny that , as BR demonstrates, most religions, on paper , are almost exactly the same, its the method actors that read from the script that f*ck up the play....
Anybody have a link to the audio of GWBush saying "this sucker's going down"?
[I'm a teeny tiny bit freaked out right now...
10y bond 3.36%]
Wait till that's the 2yr number.
The S&P negative UK watch is hilarious, drove a lot of UK analysts to tears. If not tears, complete denial "oh, these are the same people who rated junk AAA". I hope it's more than just a friendly pre-election warning and there is follow up action that happens well before the election, and it should if existing guarantees continue to be drawn upon.
"I'm a teeny tiny bit freaked out right now..."
You're not the only one....
Today's Denninger - "The time to short the phone book is approaching"
Well, when you push all the risk and a bunch of losses onto the sovereign state, what the heck do you expect?
$300 billion was probably a test.
Now they have to decide whether they really want to jump all in and announce something massive - at least as large as the MBS purchase - so probably something between $1 and $3 trillion.
"Fiduciary Doodie (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 2:10 pm
... the ones that are responsible would heed and adhere and those that are irresponsible wouldn't..."
So it looks as though a world government would have to dictate it.
They would dictate everything else too.
I don't see a solution.
Fiduciary,
True. The only thing worse than telling someone you are a christian is telling them you are a priest.
What about a first pass with a second generation launch system that doesn't involve accelerating your reaction mass, more along the lines of an electromagnetic mass driver...Kilimanjaro has been scoped as a good location IIRC...explore that route while working out the materials issues that would need to be resolved for the elevator.
It's raining Ten!
Hallelujah, it's raining Ten!
Every specimen!
Tall, long, green & lean
Rough and tough and strong and mean
It's raining Ten!
It's Panic Time, Jas!
US population growth rate: 0.975% (2009 est.)
Doesn't that mean our population is not being replaced 1:1?
3.35 Is the DOW dive related to this? Cause it be going down fast...
Does Fed QE have to be pre-approved by the board? or would they have freedom to step in as they want
I am sorry but is the magic number around 4.5? Is that when the world as we know it no longer exists?
Comrade Kristina (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 2:12 pm reply Ignore user FD, none of that will happen because the "producers" need cannon fodder to oil the cogs of war from time to time, not to mention shine their shoes, walk their dogs, mow their yards and any other tasks deemed beneath them
Damn, i missed that memo...... ; )
i produce, was cannon fodder, was a warrior, was a target, was a ditchdigger, still mow my lawn (except when kids need aeropostle shirts then they mow for allowance hahah), and many other tasks normally deemed beneath someone because i learned how to do them out of necessity....
so maybe not all producers are that bad....
Bender: I take shop…you must be a fuckin’
idiot!
Johnson: I’m a fuckin’ idiot because I can’t
make a lamp?
Bender:
No, you’re a genius because you
can’t make a lamp…
Johnson:
What do you know about Trigonometry?
Bender:
I could care less about
Trigonometry…
Johnson:
Bender, did you know without
Trigonometry there’d be no
engineering?
Bender:
Without lamps, there’d be no light!
Mr. Beach,
If Ben doubles down, he'll push the dollar down even more. Making the FCBs question even more how much they want to hold all those dollar denominated "assets".
So short the long end and hedge for weak dollar.
The BAB (bet against Ben) is the most obvious trade in my lifetime (I'm 41).
If you look at the yield curve today, you'll see that what I've been saying has come true.
Ts of 5 year maturity and less are in demand.
But 10s are getting hit.
And long bonds (30s) are getting killed.
I said TBT was the best way to play 30s because the average maturity of the 9 bonds TBT shorts is a little over 25 years. Getting that right cinched it for me. I would hold TBT all the way to 5.5% yield on the 30 at least.
Today (or so) the 30 year T bond became obsolete. It serves no purpose for anybody, and the bagholders know it and are trying to dump on anybody dumb.
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 2:09 pm
And BR, who do you think developed the technology to enable that blog of yours? A musician?
Uhh, I'm a geek with lots of internet dino friends, so how is "my old online cronies, among many others"?
You seem to be anti-technology, but yet enjoy the benefits of it. There is a word for that....hypocrite, that's it.
I've taught TCP / IP networking on the packet level. Get over yourself.
3.374%
FD, you are under the mistaken impression that you are the "norm"...I would guess that would be the case for the majority of people.
But cramer said buy buy buy
Here you go BZ, not a big fan of Wikipedia, but it seems pretty accurate regarding sub-replacement fertility.
Sub-replacement fertility - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
So it IS the Third World that is contributing to world population increases.
Should we sterilize them all?
Or maybe increase their standard of living? How would we do that? Send them some of our X Games athletes, or singers and dancers?
Or maybe give them drugs so infant mortality decreases so they don't feel they need to have 10 kids in case 5 die (drugs developed by...scientists!). Or give them water filtration systems to prevent the same effect (developed by...engineers!). Or better agricultural techniques and mechanized equipment so they don't need an army of children just to subsist (developed by...scientists and engineers).
"Today (or so) the 30 year T bond became obsolete. It serves no purpose for anybody, and the bagholders know it and are trying to dump on anybody dumb"
Except for insurance companies - see how that works
yahoo is 15 min behind on 10y quotes...
BTW anyone think that the rise in gold is so that the IMF gets to sell into it?
I do....
Ciao
MS
The Cajas in Spain are under political control, forcing them to make dodgy C&D loans.
Housebuyers still have to put 30% down, but on costa del sol UK expats were using 2nds on their 1st homes to make the difference.
Spain is giving illegals $$$ to go home and many are taking them up on it.
Fiduciary Doodie (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 2:10 pm reply Ignore user BR,
seems we dont need kids having kids, babies daddies, etc. And a cynical side of me thinks that the world would rather kill the second borns of the producers than sterilize the non producers in the name of helping the village...
Why subscribe to eugenics, especially by a metric as poor as your parent's economic success? That's an error, both moral and, I think, logical. Poverty, dysfunctional families and bad conditions ruin some people. Other people excel because it. Likewise, affluence ruins many and helps many.
If the child lacks virtue, blame the parent, but don't clame the child if the parent is lacking. Your circumstances of birth are accidental. You could have been born in a favela in Rio. Some readers here no doubt were.
If we all reacted the same way, we'd be predictable, and there's always more than one way to view a situation. What's true for the group is also true for the individual. It's simple: overspecialize, and you breed in weakness. It's slow death.
--Major Motoko Kusanagi
great so they make 40 bucks/oz to lose $1000. Sounds like Gordon brown strategy.ture to form..I am sure China is a ready buyer of all the IMF can sell. The idea of IMF dumping gold is a total bluff by the US.
I like this edit feature
US population growth rate: 0.975% (2009 est.)
Doesn't that mean our population is not being replaced 1:1?
Actually means a replacement rate of 1:1.00975.
Population growth rate = (current population - starting population)/(starting population)
S-
I don't think the whole thing is a bluff....you know we have this little problem of funding debt still...
They may not "dump" it all however you don't have investments forever........unless you are an Arab.
Ciao
MS
To late to sterilize some peoples parents.
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/21/2009 - 2:28 pm
Here you go BZ, not a big fan of Wikipedia, but it seems pretty accurate regarding sub-replacement fertility.
Sub-replacement fertility - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
So it IS the Third World that is contributing to world population increases.
Should we sterilize them all?
You are carrying the white man's burden, making arm-sweeping decisions about the best choice for the entire world (which just happens to be framed from your perspective, bon chance), treating everyone outside of umm, Christendom or whatever antique "we" you are assuming "we" are part of as if they were a homogenous mass of ignorant children that "we" can dispose as if "they" were chess pieces, and all the time "we" are a bankrupt fraud-state.
I think the world has had plenty of "our" help, thanks.
As for dancers and singers and xgames athletes, I will just say, I think people are not made into little mentats when they are 13, suited for only one role, and the ones I have met that were trained in that fashion (and I have known many) have universally been damaged individuals who profoundly resented the experience.
---"These students complained of trouble sleeping, having little energy or feeling down or hopeless "
---Tell them to take math and sciences, instead of dreaming of becoming professional X Games athletes.
Actually anything active will make them feel better. Running, hiking, swimming, aikido, math, chopping wood, cleaning the house.. anything. When you are feeling the blues, sitting around is the worst thing you can do. I know this from experience.