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HUD plans to tweak $8,000 tax credit rules so first-time homebuyers can get instant down-payment assistance.
Wish I could get this.
trying to draw in some more short sellers today?
never trust a junkie......
Ciao
MS
Macke preparing to join us on the dark side? Hopeful I am. Ready he is not.
Pakistan aid crisis seen lasting all this year-US
WASHINGTON, May 20 (Reuters) - Pakistan will likely have to cope with some 1.5 million people forced from their homes by fighting between troops and militants until the end of the year, a U.S. military official said on Wednesday.
Rear Admiral Michael LeFever, the U.S. defense attache in Pakistan, said the displaced population would change over time as troops cleared militants from some areas but the total would stay the same as the troops pressed on to other regions.
"This population will be a different population but the numbers will be consistent -- around the 1-1/2 million mark of total displaced personnel," LeFever said in a conference call with reporters at the Pentagon.
He cited Lieutenant General Nadeem Ahmed, the head of the Pakistani government's relief efforts, as the source of his information.
"General Nadeem has alluded... that he expects this number to potentially peak about the 2 million point and that will most likely occur in the next seven to 10 days," LeFever said.
Pakistan aid crisis seen lasting all this year-US
| Reuters
I'm genuinely concerned about that guy, but the following was incredibly refreshing:
"Next Week. market's up or market's down?"
"I Don't Know"
If I had to guess I would say somebody lost a ton of money and did a bunch of lines to feel better about it.
First Time Home Buyers generally perform much worse than other buyers. Putting them into zero down payment loans is irresponsible, not that our govt cares about that.
FTHB have no idea what they are getting into regarding home repair costs, utility bills, etc. There are far greater costs in owning a home than renting an apartment, beyond PITI.
The article cites a statistic saying most FTHB have 4% cash to put down. That sounds about right. Hardly enough to pay for unplanned repairs, let alone personal emergencies that might arise.
More kicking the can down the road. The event horizon approaches.
Macke saw the "white lady" for a nooner.
Did Macke have an on-air breakdown, or is he saying that he is as confused as everyone else on the bull run in everything right now?
lol the stress tests were a home run
yes. any test where they use the PASS/PASS system is a wonderful test!
Saturday Night Live - Geithner Cold Open - Video - NBC.com
Those "Fast Money" guys are full blown idiots. Cramer wannabees.
If you look at the 200 day moving average on 1929-1933, none of the bear market rallies broke up through the 200 day. The current s&p 200 day comes in around 940, and the market really feels like it's struggling to go higher now. I'm not quite ready to go short yet, but failure here really signals this ain't over.
First Time Home Buyers generally perform much worse than other buyers. Putting them into zero down payment loans is irresponsible, not that our govt cares about that.
FTHB have no idea what they are getting into regarding home repair costs, utility bills, etc. There are far greater costs in owning a home than renting an apartment, beyond PITI.
The article cites a statistic saying most FTHB have 4% cash to put down. That sounds about right. Hardly enough to pay for unplanned repairs, let alone personal emergencies that might arise.
More kicking the can down the road. The event horizon approaches.
Absolutely right. DPA was horrible enough when the private sector was doing it.
Did Macke have an on-air breakdown, or is he saying that he is as confused as everyone else on the bull run in everything right now?
Maybe it was a clever "nothing makes sense right now, so I won't either" joke. I think ac is closer to the truth. He looked confused and acted high as a kite.
CNBC's Jeff Macke's head explodes...
He just got off the bus in crazy town? Well heck I hope he looks me up - it is almost happy hour and I'd buy him a drink!
BTW - that is one big bald head if it really exploded. Make good TV - bump ratings. Just sayin'...
um, if that wasn't the white pony, i don't know what is
Whoa... And someone makes Dennis Kneale look mature.
that was the most enjoyable uncomfortableness i've felt in quite some time
thanks CR!
@ghostfaceinvestah
I agree. Let's take the example given in the article. Lamar put down 6% on a $150K loan. That is $9K. The article said that most of that came from this program. At the worst case, that was $8K, so they only put down $1K. They do not have a lot of skin in the game. At the best case, the house was in Kansas City, MO (the article is unclear) which would only lend them $6,750. In that case they only have $2,250 of skin in the game. That is still not a lot of equity.
A 1.5% drop in housing prices wipes that equity out.
From the article: "He definitely intends to repay the loan before the 2010 deadline because, he said, not doing so would add about $75 a month to his house payments."
If an extra $75 per month causes him heartburn, he is already too stretched.
I don't know if he was using or not, but Macke clearly stated, "You are talking to people that seem crazy to me."
Too much spin and the glib proclamations of "positive growth" and "I like the financials here." I guess he couldn't take it anymore.
I also liked it when they asked him about Bank of America, and he said "I dismissed them as lunatics about 8 months ago."
I think the Dawg is correct: he is somehow beginning to see that things are bad and getting worse, while the lunatics keep telling each other happy stories.
"I am going to talk to you like you are a child, here. I DON'T KNOW what the market will do next week, because THEY ARE LUNATICS."
Maybe Macke was just telling CNBC how stupid they act, no one knows anything about anything right now, so why keep on keeping on upside down and crossways to hear yourself blabber.
Macke: "It's impossible to make sense when the market doesn't."
We are like 50+ days into a bear market rally of near historic size. He couldn't shout "It's a BEAR Trap!" without losing his meal ticket. I got royal screwed, blued and tattooed in the currencies markets two years ago. You know when the Fed had the "surprise" rate drop that only their friends new about. Cheapest tuition I ever paid.
I think I get Macke's reaction now that I have watched the previous interview with the "car guys" that he was referring to.
Those car guys were spewing lunacy and fantasy.
I think I'm gonna go buy a Corvette while I still can.
Too clever by half + 6 martinis or 3 rails = what you just saw
Energyecon - if you're (or anyone else) interested in helping out a tiny bit, texting SWAT to 2022 results in a $5 donation to UNHCR which is leading the relief efforts.
Also:
The Pakistani government has not fully asserted control in the district of Buner, military officials have told a visiting team of BBC journalists.
BBC NEWS | South Asia | Pakistan army struggles in Buner
Sorry to hijack, back to regular programming
Who is more crazy? Him? Or the guy (Meyer?) who was explaining how the tide has turned, home runs were being hit, and Goblin was once again on the side of the American dollar?
I think I am going to HD or LOW today. I am in need of a new, more sturdy, wheelbarrow.
Need to prepare for the future trips on foot to the grocery to get a day 's worth of scarce food and pay with my wheelbarrow-load of USD.
rails for sure
If I had to guess I would say somebody lost a ton of money and did a bunch of lines to feel better about it.
LOL - that damned Cthulhu making margin calls again...
Or maybe someone told Macke it was his turn to towel the pony...
That was the first worthwhile clip I've seen from CNBC in years.
"Need to prepare for the future trips on foot to the grocery to get a day 's worth of scarce food and pay with my wheelbarrow-load of USD."
You just need reinforced pockets to carry your gold coins.
i gave up watching because the computer kept stuttering. Mackey is the bald guy?
sm_landlord (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 1:33 pm
I think I get Macke's reaction now that I have watched the previous interview with the "car guys" that he was referring to.
Those car guys were spewing lunacy and fantasy.
I think I'm gonna go buy a Corvette while I still can.
sm_landlord,
I'd check the Hemmings ads before "investing." Strangely the very best cars are getting cheaper in a controlled manner but the mere collector cars are still in fantasy land. If I could short, it'd be those near classic Corvettes (second only to late 60s muscle cars).
Manic Macke. He's just a little less of a psycho-case than Cramer. They make a bad trade 1 day and go ballistic.
dryfly (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 1:36 pm
LOL - that damned Cthulhu making margin calls again...
[Made me laugh on several levels. Bravo.]
@sm_landlord,
Do you have a link to the "car guys" video? I'm trying to sort this out.
Macke: "It's impossible to make sense when the market doesn't."
Welcome to the party dingbat. The market hasn't made sense for well over a decade.
Like I said, a full blown idiot. A big time koolaide drinker. As in: the markets always go up.
@CR
"Market Précis"
Is that an attempt at Borat?
Too clever by half + 6 martinis or 3 rails = what you just saw
Why 'or'... why not 'and'?
Used ZO6 corvettes look like a pretty good deal in Denver right now.
Do you have a link to the "car guys" video? I'm trying to sort this out.
link:
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/components/Syndicated%20Video%20Player/videomodule.swf?id=1128553982&pcode=cnbcplayershare&play=&base=http://plus.cnbc.com/stickers/partners/cnbcplayershare/
"I am going to talk to you like you are a child, here. I DON'T KNOW what the market will do next week, because THEY ARE LUNATICS."
I think that deserves repeating. And to be kind, if you filmed me at the extended family dinner table after a substantial portion of a bottle of wine and after some pretty awful "conventional wisdom" was spouted, you might have captures a similar bout of ineloquence.
RD;
"If I could short, it'd be those near classic Corvettes (second only to late 60s muscle cars). "
I wouldn't touch a classic Corvette at this point. If I buy one, it will be 2004 or later, and I might even buy a new one if I can find a sufficiently distressed dealer with the right car.
I used to own a 1968, and it was a rattletrap. Power to weight was not good, and I thought the body was going to fall off every time I went over a bump. It was a great babe magnet, but that and top-down drives up the coast were about all it was good for.
For anybody who thinks Macke is postal with his head exploding just wait until the oil head fake implodes. CR already reported the decrease in VMT. The weather is very mild, air travel disappearing, fertilizer demand long since pulled forward and prepositioned, industrial uses gone. Let me repeat; gone. Tankers offshore and parked all around the world with arbitrage plays. This is at least the second most obvious rube skinning since last July's $147 oil.
Do you have a link to the "car guys" video? I'm trying to sort this out.
That's twelve minutes of your life you'll never get back. Don't go there.
"Do you have a link to the "car guys" video? I'm trying to sort this out. "
Car Guys Video
Rob - the 5 trillion in printed bills has to go somewhere right?
A slightly more upbeat message came at Wednesday’s conference from Steve Palm, president of SmartNumbers, a Marietta-based research and consulting firm.
“We are going to start building cheap new homes,” Palm said. “Housing has led us into this thing. It will lead us out.”
If I could short, it'd be those near classic Corvettes (second only to late 60s muscle cars).
When I sell my gold at $10,000/oz , I'm buying a red '56 convertible.
Rob Dawg - on the oil head fake
http://www.howestreet.com/images/graphsimg/casey_may18.jpg
Cheaply built homes are a major part of the problem. The pieces of shit fall apart so fast...
Meh, crazy southerners.
sm_landlord (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 1:47 pm
RD; "If I could short, it'd be those near classic Corvettes (second only to late 60s muscle cars). "
I wouldn't touch a classic Corvette at this point.
I was sure you were at least that smart.
If I buy one, it will be 2004 or later, and I might even buy a new one if I can find a sufficiently distressed dealer with the right car.</i.
Now we're talking. Drivable and reliable and likely to be that way for decades and beyond before turning into "Hanger Queens." But then, I don't need to explain hangar queen to you now do I?
I used to own a 1968, and it was a rattletrap. Power to weight was not good, and I thought the body was going to fall off every time I went over a bump. It was a great babe magnet, but that and top-down drives up the coast were about all it was good for.
Yup. And in the "to each their own" spirit I'm thinking an S2000 might be a useable investment soon. I'll wait for Leader O to gut the Navy before replacing my GS1100ES however.
Take a name ******* quotes Steve Palm saying:
“We are going to start building cheap new homes,” Palm said. “Housing has led us into this thing. It will lead us out.”
And people are wondering why Macke's head is exploding?
Wasn't that surrealism ? He's trying to tell us the financial world has gone mad - the way the markets are moving makes absolutely no sense - zerohedge has been going on about this for a while now. I hate invoking conspiracy theories so I won't but certainly, the way the really crappy sectors have reacted, and assorted massive divergences made me blink - after giving up almost 70% of my gains made in Jan-Mar, after I went short at S&P820 in April... I took my lumps and very very slowly getting short again - this market is nuts - it just isn't adding up.
I think the madness is over but I'm still incredibly wary.
-K
“We are going to start building cheap new homes,” Palm said. “Housing has led us into this thing. It will lead us out.”
That guy is dreaming! He has a long wait ahead of him, we are overloaded with houses. There are 2 million EMPTY homes here in the US!
A précis (pronounced pray-see) is a type of summarizing written in the writer's own words about a text source.
What am I supposed to see after I pray?
Dawg & alybaba -- what, did I get off the bus in crazytown? Buy now or be priced out of oil for ever!
Thx for the link guys.
I feel sorry for the gentleman, imagine wearing the cellophane trousers on TV.
Rob,
Can you fit into an S2000? I can't.
Now If I were about 5 inches shorter and weighed 30 pounds less....
Don't confuse "this market has gone mad" with "time to short this market". The folks at the wheel have demonstrated they are ruthless pumpers. Why would anyone want to get in font of that?
alybaba (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 1:52 pm
Rob Dawg - on the oil head fake
http://www.howestreet.com/images/graphsimg/casey_may18.jpg
Thanks, I've been warning about the Kansas pipeline conurbation constipation coming this summer. The OK tank fields are part of that. There may even be a few instances of "I won't take back the oil I sold you unless you PAY me!" And it will be paid.
Isn't "car guys" terms for a certain group of traders? I posted the Macke video on an earlier thread today, it appears he's been hitting the powder and I don't mean in Vail.
[When I sell my gold at $10,000/oz , I'm buying a red '56 convertible]
Better have a lot of gold because that vette will cost $10Trillion around that time.
smlandlord, carguys video won't load...
I see this kind of pressured speech often at my job as an ER doctor. Coupled with grandiosity but lack of substance, I'd put money on coke. Not jumpy enough for meth, but that's possible. I've never seen him before, though--does he always act like that?
"If I could short, it'd be those near classic Corvettes (second only to late 60s muscle cars)."
On a purely egotistical note, "'value" was one of things I tried to attack two years ago.
Stores of value are dubious at best.
Knowledge?
Gold?
Real estate?
Commodities seem likely in some cases, I'm a big fan of uranium.
The Information Revolution has altered a lot of traditional havens and thinking.
You have to be in the right frame of mind to grasp my meanderings.
I probably should get back to this and try to follow it up with a real outcome.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/Weblog?catname=/Dom-Unique
sm_landlord (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 1:56 pm
Rob, Can you fit into an S2000? I can't.
Now If I were about 5 inches shorter and weighed 30 pounds less....
Narrow hips are indeed beneficial. For me, I'm not tall and still the seat needs to be all the way back but it reminds me of a Long-EZ. It ain't a casual commuter either. You have to assume nobody can see you because they can't. Keeping the engine on the pipe is also a chore. Constant rowing through the gears. A reliable TR-5.
Kristina,
"carguys video won't load..."
Works for me when I click on the link...
Try the link posted at the end of the last thread and see if that works.
alybaba, Thanks for the post. I was going to ask you what you thought about what was going on.... And how accurate the news is (if you have better data)
Understand, in the new economy you can have a one off custom knock off of most any marquee brand classic vehicle for less and with modern performance and reliability.
This presages the new auto industry. Small (000s) shops will return.
A slightly more upbeat message came at Wednesday’s conference from Steve Palm, president of SmartNumbers, a Marietta-based research and consulting firm.
“We are going to start building cheap new homes,” Palm said. “Housing has led us into this thing. It will lead us out.”
Not only is Mr. Palm the president of Smartnumbers, he also sells real estate.
Steven Palm at Georgia MLS
"the markets are moving makes absolutely no sense"
Imagine two opposing forces, each growing stronger over time, barely counterbalancing each other. That's inflation and deflation but as I've said several times, I think the real crux of what's happening is distribution of work. The leverage for core work (ergo, productivity) has risen a lot but makework jobs are funded through debt to allow the "owners of capital" to preserve the illusion of what value they can extract.
What if one guy owned everything?
What would he trade anyone else for?
"Survival of the fittest" don't work so good when your safety line is hooked to the floundering losers that you put out of business.
as a former owner of an S2000 (2003 Berlina)....I'd buy another one in a heartbeat....if I had the means to make it into a purpose built track monster.
It was my only transport for 2 years. What a mistake! You can't put anything in it, it has zero usable torque so it sucks when you aren't balls to the wall(2nd cam).
energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 8:14 pm
Pakistan aid crisis seen lasting all this year-US
Pakistan is our new Chrysler.
"A précis (pronounced pray-see) is a type of summarizing written in the writer's own words about a text source."
Aha. My boorish, unsophisticated Texas roots shine through so clearly sometimes. I had images of Sasha Cohen. Maybe it's just been one of those days.
@skk - were you channeling me there? I've suffered exactly the same fate re: returns made and lost. Easy come, easy go. Better said: the house always wins.
Mackie said FU to ANYBODY calling a turn..to hell with calling a bottom. HE is also saying the MARKET as a WHOLE is FUBAR. Fundementals are WAY out of whack and don;t even support DOW 8,000 much less 12,000 beacuse EARNINGS are.... well....ask your MAGIC 8 BALL.
the big bald head exploding
book1 (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 2:11 pm
as a former owner of an S2000 (2003 Berlina)....I'd buy another one in a heartbeat....if I had the means to make it into a purpose built track monster.
It was my only transport for 2 years. What a mistake! You can't put anything in it, it has zero usable torque so it sucks when you aren't balls to the wall(2nd cam).
Didn't I just say all that?
Yeah, except I live in Ventura County so it would live as a canyon burner and farm road bullet rather than a track monster.
Laszlo Birinyi Says S&P 500 May Soar 88% in Two to Three Years
Birinyi Says S&P 500 May Surge 88% in Three Years (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
By Eric Martin
May 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks are at the start of a bull market that may spur an 88 percent advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in the next two to three years, investor Laszlo Birinyi said.
“We’re confident we are in a bull market,” Birinyi said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. The rally that began after the S&P 500 sank to a 12-year low on March 9 may push the index as high as 1,700 points, he said, a gain of 88 percent from today’s close of 903.47. The benchmark equity index reached a record 1,565.15 on Oct. 9, 2007.
Birinyi spent a decade on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers Inc. and is known for pioneering money-flow analysis.
A few things I wrote recently that folks might want to read, better fitted to earlier threads but no sense putting the links on a dead thread:
Fed Cuts Outlook, Keeps Chin Up
Foreclosures: New Waves Will Hit
A Modest Proposal
The Twin Deficits & Savings
"sank to a 12-year low on March 9 may push the index as high as 1,700 points"
Dow 20,000!!! I'm going all in.
/snark off
Ministry of Truth
Laszlo Birinyi = Birinyi Associates = provider of S&P 500 P/E Ratio to WSJ (currently claimed to be 15)
P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
Nades
I am looking for some good primary sources, but currently journalists have no real access to the conflict zone, so my data is as good as yours
this video explains it all, at least as far as Macke is concerned:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y24Acsjn6-Q
dawg-
think about those fools who paid $1m + for a Charger or 'Cuda Hemi. Those have quite a bit to adjust...much more than anything else IMO.
Ciao
MS
MS (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 2:19 pm
dawg-
think about those fools who paid $1m + for a Charger or 'Cuda Hemi. Those have quite a bit to adjust...much more than anything else IMO.
The Metallic green one with double white stripe and the chrome lifters on the positrak backend?
Does it come with a collection of KISS albums for the 8-Track?
Macke is the only one on the panel who makes sense. Others calling a bottom - bull market - what have you - are the jibber jabbers. Seems that someone has taken a peak under the TARP and is cracking.
"Does it come with a collection of KISS albums for the 8-Track?"
No....T-Rex
Ciao
MS
"For anybody who thinks Macke is postal with his head exploding just wait until the oil head fake implodes. CR already reported the decrease in VMT. The weather is very mild, air travel disappearing, fertilizer demand long since pulled forward and prepositioned, industrial uses gone. Let me repeat; gone. Tankers offshore and parked all around the world with arbitrage plays. This is at least the second most obvious rube skinning since last July's $147 oil."
Although I may be completely out to lunch on this one, it may have little to do with supply of oil and a whole lot to do with hedging against the US dollar (and other currencies).
Fantastic - the supply of oil is about to be capped. Anyone looking to get out of the dollar (or other currency) is going to face competition for a fixed supply of oil. Makes me think even harder about adding a long oil position. As.a.dollar.hedge.
I've been saying stuff like that for years and nobody has put me on tv. And I have lots of hair too.
alybaba,
You weren't kidding about Birinyi providing WSJ with its index p/e data... I finally went to compare with S&P's data, it is their index after all. The current, year ago, and estimated P/E for the sp500 makes no sense. None at all
GPS system could fail next year?
GPS Could Fail Next Year, Warns GAO -- GPS -- InformationWeek
Oil......... "the new black"
lol liz, hopefully you didn't look totally tweeked out when you said it...Poor Macke, that video is just plain creepy...I've never actually witnessed a psychotic break before...
Oh, and back on topic, I personally have become much saner since pretending that the S&P does not exist. There are a lot of reasons why it makes sense to do that, not least of which is not losing your ass trying to ride it to, or catch, the top.
"Oil......... "the new black"
greed is the new pink.
I should play that for my better half.
She's been occasionally dropping me articles from MSM sources about how things are turning corner, I hope just to make me secure in my thinking about where we are - precisely as safe as possible with no risk.
It is making me think again, but I still come back to the operating premise, which is that the system is rigged so I'm not playing.
The hub was telling me just a couple of days ago that the Air Force Procurement system is completely and totally broken, and buying anything takes literally years.
Yeah, the mkt can do any f***ing thing it wants to, I'm not getting back in until sanity returns.
The way the condo mkts are falling, maybe I could pull my money out and buy a very very small very very cheap condo. An oldish one. Full of oldish people. Like me.
"This is at least the second most obvious rube skinning since last July's $147 oil."
Even though I am very long oil, I totally agree. Oil at $62 in this environment is a joke.
But all that money BB is printing has to go to somewhere.
And it is not just oil, commodities are up across the board.
It is going to be an interesting dance for BB trying to support fake assets while tramping down real assets.
Sell in May and go away ....
22.9% ..... voter turnout in Cali
Anybody heard of Peak Oil ?
lawyerliz;
"... Air Force Procurement system is completely and totally broken, and buying anything takes literally years. "
Buying anything took years back before the system broke. I can only imagine how bad it is now. AF procurement has been a political quagmire at least since the 1940s.
ghostfaceinvestah,
Yup, a lot of idiots trying to put the wagon before the horses. That being said, a lot of money is tied up in oil right now. Expect crazy volatility to return once that cash goes back on the hunt
for those still interested in macke story - looks like he has lost his marbles (I would too listening to CNBC idiots all day)
check this link:
A CNBCer's On-Air Meltdown - Jeff macke - Gawker
more video evidence of his psychotic break/white pony riding
"Anybody heard of Peak Oil ? "
I keep hearing that phrase, then I hear that we have excess supply, even at low prices.
Smart prognosticators will usually not specify both what and when.
Peak Oil = when we run out of drums, caverns, and tankers to hold all the oversupply.
I was just analyzing property sales for a tax appeal, and was getting pretty discouraged, because the prices during the relevant period were too high to help my client.
Then I realized, out of the 20 most appropriate properties I picked out 12 were in foreclosure. 12. And 1 guy wasn't in foreclosure on the property in my square mile, but was in foreclosure on a couple of sfrs elsewhere in Miami-Dade.
So, I guess I will argue that the prices made no sense at all, even as a snapshot, because they mostly fell into foreclosure from 4 months to a year or year and a half after closing.
Amazing and depressing. However, I'm trying my best to keep my head from exploding.
I am prolly seeing mtg fraud, but the data base doesn't come with big red letters printed over the items saying
FRAUD, FRAUD. None of the 12 have finished the foreclosure, and none have been resold. Some of the owners have disappeared, so the Plaintiffs must publish against them.
The ones that have gone to judgment are going to sell for less than half of what the judgment amount is. The sales aren't being held for months after the judgment, because that aspect of things is jammed up too. Ususally they are held about 30-45 days after the summary final judgment, to give time for the notices of sale to be published, etc.
Only losing traders watch CNBC. Sad but true.
thanks alybaba for pointing that out about birinyi.
i wrote to the wsj about their BS pe numbers.
they replied that they are using operating earnings pe but just for sp500. however, they do not mention operating earnings pe anywhere on their page with the birinyi data.
their letter is at my web page
404 - PAGE NOT FOUND
funny thing is barron's has it as 122.45. wsj owns barron's.
Barron's Market Lab Table - Barrons.com
mmckinl (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 4:54 pm reply Ignore user Anybody heard of Peak Oil ?
Yeah, right now it is being masked by peak demand. But as the world's population continues to grow, and as poorer nations continue to industrialize, the demand will eventually return. But right now that peak demand thing is still going strong.
Wow, brother Macke can't maintain.
Bernanke's term as Chairman expires Feb 2010. that will be fun given what will be happening by this fall.
Liz
Maybe fraud, there was a lot of that in FL, but could be just small-time investors owning several properties (like the example you cited). I swear, I have seen people who owned over 20 properties (though Alt A financing of course, the agencies wouldn't accept that even during the bubble). And that were the ones we financed, Lord knows if they had any with other lenders.
Foreclosures 4 months to a year in would not surprise me - as the bubble grew, more and more small time investors were suckered in, thinking this would be their salvation.
The sad thing is, we are seeing that again; many of the foreclosure sales are to small time investors. Just like FTHB, they have no idea what they are getting into.
Sounds like one of those apocalyptic novels, but apparently it's nothing of the sort:
"http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090520/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_swine_flu_military"
Well, at least they are getting in at half of peak, with payments that they actually can afford. All fha or all cash. That's the choice. And many of the fhas put way more than 3% down.
ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 4:44 pm reply Ignore user GPS system could fail next year?
InformationWeek | Non-Working URL?...
Not to worry, we always have LORAN C to fall back on. Oh wait..........................
Link didn't work, Dazed.
Someone compared Macke to Howard Beale.
Beale ("I'm mad as H*ll"):
YouTube - Network- I'm Mad as Hell
lawyerliz,
re: Fraud
I know you'll love listening to one of William Black's recent appearances. Interview in Iceland or Lecture in Iceland, both are in English.
He's now a professor of Economics and Law, but has a regulatory career including the FHLB and OTS. He approaches ponzis or credit bubbles from the perspective of Fraud.
thanks EvilHenry, but it will have to wait until I'm at a computer with decent audio.
The thing is, when you have so very much fraud, an honest appraiser can't necessarily tell what a
price should be, because all the comps start to be 'way too high.
I'm off to get something to eat.
Otis,
Nice article on the S&P P/E. Keep an eye on the LIARS.
Thanks alybaba for the heads up
the PTB will use this cokehead to smear bearish arguments
~ Smart prognosticators will usually not specify both what and when.
The Oil Drum
~ Peak Oil = when we run out of drums, caverns, and tankers to hold all the oversupply.
Yep, that's why we're going down 30,000 feet to get it ...
Low fruit , elephant fields, developed and in decline ...
India _ China using more and more ...
Market is really nuts. The Nasdaq opening up 1.5% given HPQ's news? Deere up 8% after dropping full years earnings estimates by 30%? Coal stocks up 50% in three weeks with deteriorating fundamentals?
A hard rains a gonna fall.
"Rob - the 5 trillion in printed bills has to go somewhere right? "
If you believe what's left of the right wing propananda machine, it's all going to minority owned media outlets. Mostly likely the Congressmen are talking about less than $100 millon access to financing, I have yet to see a number. 100 million, trillion, 13 billion is halfway to 34, egghead Dennis Kneale just said so on majority-owned TV.
I DO NOT support FED financing minority-owned broadcast companies in any way. But this is a black herring. No doubt the constituents of the Congressional Black Caucus (not much representation in the upper house, thanks to plantation gerrimandering) were screaming why can't we get a bailout? Big Parent and the holding company are getting trillions. Maybe they were asking on behalf of non-profit radio stations like WBAI, which even my Goldwater- supporting Harvard-educated father would listen to regularly. Not-for-profit news sources are a little more likely to get you accurate, intelligent information.:
--"The Pacifica Foundation was launched by pacifist Lew Hill in 1949 with the first ever listener funded radio station - KPFA, Berkeley. The Pacifica Mission called for radio that would foster understanding amongst nations and individuals, encourage creativity, and promote innovative, uncensored distribution of news.
In 1960, WBAI 99.5 FM in New York joined Pacifica when philanthropist Louis Schweitzer gave the station to the network, which now has 5 radio stations (the other four are in Berkeley, Los Angeles, Houston, and Washington, DC) and more than 50 affiliate stations across the U.S."
They struggle with their mission:
"In December 2001 a settlement agreement was reached with regard to several lawsuits that had been brought against the then Pacifica National Board. The suits were filed by Pacifica listeners, various Local Advisory Board members, and several National board members charging the board with taking Pacifica away from its mission and other illegal activities destructive to the network."...
"Having been affected, like most, by the economic downturn, WBAI has had to make drastic staff reductions. In light of that, we are seeking 2 volunteers to work as receptionists..."
I've got a useful job for Dennis Kneale...
Can you only imagine all the Walter Mitty Sobchaks that are going to show up, guns @ the ready in our National Parks?
Money loses value when it has becomes too multiplied
King Sigismund (1526)
Incredible:
Detnews.com | This article is no longer available online | detnews.com | The Detroit News
Inflation finishes the moral decay which the wars had started...
Cramer says to buy tech stocks so I'm guessing they're going to drop like a rock...just a hunch.
OT--1) scenes from Las Vegas--just got back from Interop--taxi driver on way back to airport talking about how he hasn't paid his mortgage in 3 months on home he bought for $240k and now worth $130k. At the Las Vegas airport saw white middle age and senior citizens behind the fast food counters which was a shock for me.
2) Up in OR over the weekend, local paper full of recession stories, with lead article about how Bend, OR has 17% unemployment and is there poster child for the boom/bust era.
3) There was an interview in Barrons' this week that talked about how unemployment in this cycle is a leading or coincident indicator and not a lagging indicator. Then I saw a piece by David Rosenberg today (over at Zero Hedge) and he also is pointing out that this might be the case. Anyone (CR?) think that makes sense?
The hub was telling me just a couple of days ago that the Air Force Procurement system is completely and totally broken, and buying anything takes literally years. - Liz
And even then - nobody will have the foggiest idea where the parts came from. China, Russia - who knows.
Only losing traders watch CNBC.
Which comes first, the losing or the watching?
I watched the carguys video and it's not just the 12 minutes that I won't get back...I felt my mind slipping away as I watched. I can't imagine the effect eight hours per day would have.
It was almost worth it though to hear the CNBC guy stifle his guest with "Ok, Dan, here's the way this good TV thing works, shorter bites and faster back and forth. OK?..." and then talk over him for a good minute and a half without ever letting him get a word in edgewise--sometimes asking him questions without even pausing for a breath that might risk an answer.
Maybe GE's out of cash and they're paying the anchors in kind?
i am amazed at how fluent you all are in "blow-speak"...rather comforting, in an odd way
Why is everyone dogging the guy who lost his cool? Look man...he is supposed to make money by making choices based on facts and instinct. He is saying there is no solid facts to base any decision on and the only instinct left is a basic one...fight or flight. He is trapped by profession to stay...so he fought back and said this is FUBAR.......Who can blame him. PS...Dude is NOT on coke...he's been getting worse since Oct...when the bailouts started.
I know it doesn't really make any sense, but it looks to me like the current bear in the dshort 4 bad bears starts too early in Oct. 2007 and should really start in May 2008 which was, admittedly, an unsuccessful retest of the Oct. '07 high. It's just that that dramatic decline in month ten, eleven, twelve looks so spookily similar to 1929. Just back up the line a few months and look at it! Just a weird hunch. BTW, I finally exited the market entirely today, hiding out 100% now in cash. I'll sleep better.
What I find interesting is that the decline around 2000 after the bubble popped took about three years to fall, versus the latest period where that three year cumulative dive took one year! The recovery will not be fast!
Jeff Macke was smoking green shoots.