The outlook for the housing sector can not improve until home sales begin to improve. Existing and new home sales were no better than mixed in last month's releases -- and the MBA's mortgage applications index is showing no strength at all, at 254.0 in the May 15 week for a 4.4 percent decline. Falling home prices -- tied to distressed sales and heavy inventory -- are failing to stimulate significant buying nor are rock-bottom mortgage rates, at 4.69 percent for 30-year fixed loans. But low rates are continuing to stimulate refinancing which will help limit future foreclosures. The refinance index rose 4.5 percent to 4,794.4.
Also, as I type this I notice that O.I.L. continues its second lunar landing mission and just blasted through $61.
I bought gas yesterday. It's starting to get painful again...
FWIW, ac, I think $65/bbl is (was) about the "natural" market price for oil and so as the global economy starts to "come to" from the credit crisis and the punishment tariff drops off the price, that is the absolute FLOOR for bbl prices until we get more capacity destruction. Given the worthlessness of the Yankee Dollar, I'd expect we'll see three digits shortly.
Who else is still waiting for that 2008 2nd half recovery ?
"The [FOMC] will also issue its quarterly compendium of forecasts for GDP, unemployment and PCE. At the January meeting the members had a central tendency forecast for 2009 GDP of -0.5 tp -1.3. That seems a bit too optimistic and I think that will be revised slightly lower.
The collective forecast on the unemployment rate for 2009 is clearly in error and will be revised lower, too. The last time the members spoke on the topic they opined that the unemployment rate would average between 8.5 and 8.8 in 2009.
Events in the real world will have forced them back to the drawing board on that one. I believe the last batch of labor data showed the rate at 8.9 percent."
John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made an estimated $3.7bn (£2.4bn) shorting the US housing market ahead of its collapse, is placing a firm bet on a medium-term property recovery with the launch of a new fund.
"The most encouraging part of this news is that this is the second month with very strong inquiries for new projects. A growing number of architecture firms report potential projects arising from federal stimulus funds..."
I don't know whether to laugh or cry at this quote.
In less than a generation, we've gone from a nation whose rallying cry was, "Government is not the solution to the problem; government is the problem" ... to one where taxpayer-funded make-work stimulus projects can unabashedly be referred to as the "most encouraging" part of one's business model.
FWIW, ac, I think $65/bbl is (was) about the "natural" market price for oil and so as the global economy starts to "come to" from the credit crisis and the punishment tariff drops off the price, that is the absolute FLOOR for bbl prices until we get more capacity destruction. Given the worthlessness of the Yankee Dollar, I'd expect we'll see three digits shortly.
Well I keep hearing how all the oil containers are overflowing and that there's no fundamental justification for this recent move.
Of course there was no fundamental justification for the move to $150 back in 2007 - it was a Federal Reserve created liquidity event, which is what I think we're having now.
We still have all these ponzi units in the economy in the form of hedge funds.
Give them liquidity and you will get bubbles.
That's what they do:
Ben provides the soap. The hedgies provide the bubbles.
What's disturbing is this is not a post-crash economic configuration - it is a pre-crash economic configuration.
Longer-term very high oil prices may be justified given the debasement of the buck - especially if China starts hoarding oil instead of treasuries.
But the current move to me seems a bit premature given the fundamentals.
In less than a generation, we've gone from a nation whose rallying cry was, "Government is not the solution to the problem; government is the problem" ... to one where taxpayer-funded make-work stimulus projects can unabashedly be referred to as the "most encouraging" part of one's business model.
The latter was the direct, foreseeable, even obvious consequence of the former.
Only because they're Earth's other dominant culture. Trust me, they are good because you see them "from a distance". Up close, they are at least as screwed as America, and that's no mean feat.
John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made an estimated $3.7bn (£2.4bn) shorting the US housing market ahead of its collapse, is placing a firm bet on a medium-term property recovery with the launch of a new fund.
Sounds like he's betting on a ponzi-based recovery.
Charlie Munger: "Very few people realize how much we've screwed up. Even in leading law schools and business schools very few people realize that the mess at Enron never could have happened if accounting customs hadn't been changed. What we have now is a bigger, more widespread Enron."
Well I keep hearing how all the oil containers are overflowing and that there's no fundamental justification for this recent move.
There's some degree of forward take-up, or maybe I'm wrong. It's all random speculation. Regardless, there's no justification for what happens after here, and there is going to be plenty of "after here" to come.
if i were to plant shills and narcs in an esoteric finance blog i would plant two types:
dumbasses who are easily discredited and exposed to function as lightning rods and divert attention from real operatives.
prolific and clever individuals who speak above the expertise level of the average informed poster but inject agenda alongside useful or entertaining facts.
Even in leading law schools and business schools very few people realize that the mess at Enron never could have happened if accounting customs hadn't been changed.
The ivy JD/MBAs led the charge for these "innovations."
All the bad signals and news yet the market continues to go up...
Must be Obama faustian bargain with 19 too big to fail banks who got trillions in TARP as quid pro quo to try and pump up great chunks of the Big Shitpile !
Not only is oil above $60, which is suspect on the fundamentals but easily understood looking at the Fed's "Print Print Print" monetary policy, but gold is starting to confirm oil's monetary-driven move. Too bad wages in this country are headed downward.
The problem I see with g.i.'s returning is manyfold. Most went into the military because there wasn't a plan B for them, and they are coming back to an America that doesn't have a plan B.
Patriotism turned out to be the last refuge for these poor scoundrels...
I wonder if the traders at Goldman Sachs saw on Bloomberg that a lot of hedgies are going to start buying stocks if the S&P gets much over 930 so their clients don't abandon them.
You'd almost think that guarantees the market will be pumped over 930.
Projects based on stimulus funds remind me of foreclosure sales. The projects spend money and create jobs, so they are "real", but you can't call them the natural market. getting from here to whatever normal will is going to be tricky.
--- - .. ... .... . .-. - --.. (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 9:47 am
2. prolific and clever individuals who speak above the expertise level of the average informed poster but inject agenda alongside useful or entertaining facts.
Everybody is over thinking the situation. Too much emphasis on this or that data point. Too focused on this confirming that, therefore the other thing must also be true/false.
Folk, this is the grind. Hunker down, get used to it. Eat your green shoots and do like my wife did on her wedding night: Act like you're enjoying all this.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 1:47 pm
The problem I see with g.i.'s returning is manyfold. Most went into the military because there wasn't a plan B for them, and they are coming back to an America that doesn't have a plan B. .
Obama is creating thousands of jobs in Afghanistan, and people need to be replaced even though they never quit.
Must be Obama faustian bargain with 19 too big to fail banks who got trillions in TARP as quid pro quo to try and pump up great chunks of the Big Shitpile !
Yep. On account of the TBTF banks 'needing' to raise capital. Pump, raise, dump. Let the window come down - along with the major averages. Once they think the banks will slip the noose, the rest of us are sca-rewed.
In prepared remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is telling senators that consumers and investors need protections against manipulation and deception in financial services.
Perhaps waving with his right hand as his left hand gives trillions of TARP $$$ to the too big to fail banks then he jerks off !
I'm no expert but it always concerns me when govt bonds and stock's go up at the same time. So we have "flight to safety" and a greater "flight to equity"... especially with commodities skyrocketing! Maybe Benny or Timmy had some time yesterday to ask the Great 19 to throw some money back at us...
Fighting endless 2-front wars far away, against opponents that are unidentifiable, as opposed to all of our troops sticking out like sore thumbs, is a recipe for disaster capitalism.
Byz, left you a paragraph on dead thread. You're so smart but you couldn't do any union job in the Court System efficiently for one day without months of training except clean toilets, if you have experience. The union would not waste its leverage trying to keep you in the job.
Okay, survivalists, tin foil hat folk, conspiracy nuts of every stripe. Think geo-political. Iran. Israel. Iraq. Afghanistan. China.
What is the situation?
What is the mission?
Describe the execution of mission.
Command and control
Logistics and support.
The five paragraphs of any field order.
The Khyber Pass is effectively blocked, denying Chinese access to overland support and/or deployment to Iranian theater. The Ba'athist political bloc has been rendered split with taking of Iraq. Israel as proxy is threatening raid on Iran. All routes of ingress and egress are now controlled by US and allies. Reallocation of troop strength effected in anticipation of changing needs within the theater.
"Me thinks it is possible they could take DC just as easily. I have a hard time believing they will shoot American civilians so easily..."
As ever, Kent State comes to mind. Once anti-war activists had been demonized as anti-American the National Guard had no problems shooting them down. And racism and outsider status not an issue...these were white kids.
You think they would shoot into crowds of 10k-20k? Maybe the police will? We're not at the point where you get that type of crowd without big media support...
Afghanistan is now about containment not winning due to the fire burning in Pakistan. The US has been restraining Israel since 2004 from attacking Iran. The US had clear evidence of Iranian troop involvement not just bombs and supplies in Iraq, and we never escalated the situation. In fact there were actually several border skirmishes between US and Iranian troops, and nothing came of it, so the US is trying desperately to keep Iran contained. Israel will not wait forever, and Iran just raised the diatribe this week with threats about wiping Israel off the face of the map in 11 days, and this morning introducing a new missile with range to attack Israel supposedly. Overall, the US Army is broke and tired and can't fight a new front anytime soon effectively. Air Force can bomb the hell out of people, but that alone won't win. I honestly don't know what the plan is, but if I was China, I would want WWIII to open up between India and Pakistan. Weaken India, US would have to be involved somehow, and China inherits the world when it is all over.
....."leave the market and choke them to death."
....good advice not heeded by many.
"prolific and clever individuals", nor "dumbass to function as lightning rods"
.........my lightning rod, prolific & clever days are over, my dumbass days are not.
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 10:01 am
Byz, left you a paragraph on dead thread. You're so smart but you couldn't do any union job in the Court System efficiently for one day without months of training except clean toilets, if you have experience.
Left you a reply. I would say your argument illustrates the problem.
ichael Pomerleano...."Quarter of credit to GDP exceeding the prior crisis credit to GDP"
Why would anyone want credit to GDP to expand beyond the levels that capsized their systems? What purpose is served by such unstable levels of credit? Better to maintain private debt to GDP within a range that promotes long term stability.
Let CPI prices gradually fall so that consumers can buy the extra goods made available by increased productivity. Don't force consumers to borrow unrepayable sums to buy the widgets.
Your chart on the Architecture Billings Index is great, could you provide me with the date behind the chart? My boss has asked me to do some analysis on the construction industry and this is one of the key metrics he is looking for. The AIA website is very cumbersome and finding this data all in one place is very difficult.
n-1
The outlook for the housing sector can not improve until home sales begin to improve. Existing and new home sales were no better than mixed in last month's releases -- and the MBA's mortgage applications index is showing no strength at all, at 254.0 in the May 15 week for a 4.4 percent decline. Falling home prices -- tied to distressed sales and heavy inventory -- are failing to stimulate significant buying nor are rock-bottom mortgage rates, at 4.69 percent for 30-year fixed loans. But low rates are continuing to stimulate refinancing which will help limit future foreclosures. The refinance index rose 4.5 percent to 4,794.4.
Also, as I type this I notice that O.I.L. continues its second lunar landing mission and just blasted through $61.
I bought gas yesterday. It's starting to get painful again...
EDIT: Thanks Ben!
Billings increases from "stimulus" pork will not be an "improvement."
architects need a bailout too you know...
FWIW, ac, I think $65/bbl is (was) about the "natural" market price for oil and so as the global economy starts to "come to" from the credit crisis and the punishment tariff drops off the price, that is the absolute FLOOR for bbl prices until we get more capacity destruction. Given the worthlessness of the Yankee Dollar, I'd expect we'll see three digits shortly.
Who else is still waiting for that 2008 2nd half recovery ?
Simon says give more money to American Idoligarchy.
bleh, as an architect, I approve of your idea.
Who else is still waiting for that 2008 2nd half recovery ?
"The [FOMC] will also issue its quarterly compendium of forecasts for GDP, unemployment and PCE. At the January meeting the members had a central tendency forecast for 2009 GDP of -0.5 tp -1.3. That seems a bit too optimistic and I think that will be revised slightly lower.
The collective forecast on the unemployment rate for 2009 is clearly in error and will be revised lower, too. The last time the members spoke on the topic they opined that the unemployment rate would average between 8.5 and 8.8 in 2009.
Events in the real world will have forced them back to the drawing board on that one. I believe the last batch of labor data showed the rate at 8.9 percent."
Bond Expert: Wednesday Outlook -- Seeking Alpha
John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made an estimated $3.7bn (£2.4bn) shorting the US housing market ahead of its collapse, is placing a firm bet on a medium-term property recovery with the launch of a new fund.
John Paulson bets on property recovery with new fund - Telegraph
hmmm.... more green shoots
PBCG deficit grows like a weed...
Deficit at PBGC grows by $22.5 billion in 6 months - MarketWatch
What happens when all the brains are eaten?
green shoots!
"The most encouraging part of this news is that this is the second month with very strong inquiries for new projects. A growing number of architecture firms report potential projects arising from federal stimulus funds..."
I don't know whether to laugh or cry at this quote.
In less than a generation, we've gone from a nation whose rallying cry was, "Government is not the solution to the problem; government is the problem" ... to one where taxpayer-funded make-work stimulus projects can unabashedly be referred to as the "most encouraging" part of one's business model.
I really need to start learning Mandarin.
What if Vegas had a similar scheme to our government currently?
They could offer up the assurance that no matter how much you lose over the tables, they'll make sure you leave with a profit somehow.
No brain, know pain.
FWIW, ac, I think $65/bbl is (was) about the "natural" market price for oil and so as the global economy starts to "come to" from the credit crisis and the punishment tariff drops off the price, that is the absolute FLOOR for bbl prices until we get more capacity destruction. Given the worthlessness of the Yankee Dollar, I'd expect we'll see three digits shortly.
Well I keep hearing how all the oil containers are overflowing and that there's no fundamental justification for this recent move.
Of course there was no fundamental justification for the move to $150 back in 2007 - it was a Federal Reserve created liquidity event, which is what I think we're having now.
We still have all these ponzi units in the economy in the form of hedge funds.
Give them liquidity and you will get bubbles.
That's what they do:
Ben provides the soap. The hedgies provide the bubbles.
What's disturbing is this is not a post-crash economic configuration - it is a pre-crash economic configuration.
Longer-term very high oil prices may be justified given the debasement of the buck - especially if China starts hoarding oil instead of treasuries.
But the current move to me seems a bit premature given the fundamentals.
how about the bozeman index?
In less than a generation, we've gone from a nation whose rallying cry was, "Government is not the solution to the problem; government is the problem" ... to one where taxpayer-funded make-work stimulus projects can unabashedly be referred to as the "most encouraging" part of one's business model.
The latter was the direct, foreseeable, even obvious consequence of the former.
Mook (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 9:30 am
I really need to start learning Mandarin.
Only because they're Earth's other dominant culture. Trust me, they are good because you see them "from a distance". Up close, they are at least as screwed as America, and that's no mean feat.
Is there any way to short the PGBC?
John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made an estimated $3.7bn (£2.4bn) shorting the US housing market ahead of its collapse, is placing a firm bet on a medium-term property recovery with the launch of a new fund.
Sounds like he's betting on a ponzi-based recovery.
Charlie Munger: "Very few people realize how much we've screwed up. Even in leading law schools and business schools very few people realize that the mess at Enron never could have happened if accounting customs hadn't been changed. What we have now is a bigger, more widespread Enron."
Charlie Munger: 'We've Screwed Up' -- Seeking Alpha
mp in the overnight thread mentioned the Army taking Dayton.
Me thinks it is possible they could take DC just as easily. I have a hard time believing they will shoot American civilians so easily...
ac (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 9:34 am
Well I keep hearing how all the oil containers are overflowing and that there's no fundamental justification for this recent move.
There's some degree of forward take-up, or maybe I'm wrong. It's all random speculation. Regardless, there's no justification for what happens after here, and there is going to be plenty of "after here" to come.
weep for SRS
Architecture Billings Index Steady in April
And in other news; after hitting the sea floor and bouncing a bit the Titanic has stopped sinking.
early close Fri and a Mon holiday
if i were to plant shills and narcs in an esoteric finance blog i would plant two types:
NateTG (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 6:37 am
Is there any way to short the PGBC?
Basket o'Currencies v. USD
Even in leading law schools and business schools very few people realize that the mess at Enron never could have happened if accounting customs hadn't been changed.
The ivy JD/MBAs led the charge for these "innovations."
Bubble glossary:
"innovation"=scam
"capital"=debt
"invest"=spend
"save"=spend/consume
testing =))
All the bad signals and news yet the market continues to go up...
Must be Obama faustian bargain with 19 too big to fail banks who got trillions in TARP as quid pro quo to try and pump up great chunks of the Big Shitpile !
Not only is oil above $60, which is suspect on the fundamentals but easily understood looking at the Fed's "Print Print Print" monetary policy, but gold is starting to confirm oil's monetary-driven move. Too bad wages in this country are headed downward.
The problem I see with g.i.'s returning is manyfold. Most went into the military because there wasn't a plan B for them, and they are coming back to an America that doesn't have a plan B.
Patriotism turned out to be the last refuge for these poor scoundrels...
I wonder if the traders at Goldman Sachs saw on Bloomberg that a lot of hedgies are going to start buying stocks if the S&P gets much over 930 so their clients don't abandon them.
You'd almost think that guarantees the market will be pumped over 930.
Projects based on stimulus funds remind me of foreclosure sales. The projects spend money and create jobs, so they are "real", but you can't call them the natural market. getting from here to whatever normal will is going to be tricky.
would you play poker with the devil?
would you play poker with the devil if you knew he could see your cards?
the devils raiding the country's finances see your cards.
the devils looting your future need the market in order to breathe.
leave the market and choke them to death.
the powers that be need the market.
no one man needs the market.
JD, I object to the use of scoundrel, but I understand what you are saying, and it is true.
--- - .. ... .... . .-. - --.. (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 9:47 am
2. prolific and clever individuals who speak above the expertise level of the average informed poster but inject agenda alongside useful or entertaining facts.
I'm a Factualist plant.
Everybody is over thinking the situation. Too much emphasis on this or that data point. Too focused on this confirming that, therefore the other thing must also be true/false.
Folk, this is the grind. Hunker down, get used to it. Eat your green shoots and do like my wife did on her wedding night: Act like you're enjoying all this.
wasn't referring to you byz
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 1:47 pm
The problem I see with g.i.'s returning is manyfold. Most went into the military because there wasn't a plan B for them, and they are coming back to an America that doesn't have a plan B. .
Obama is creating thousands of jobs in Afghanistan, and people need to be replaced even though they never quit.
Must be Obama faustian bargain with 19 too big to fail banks who got trillions in TARP as quid pro quo to try and pump up great chunks of the Big Shitpile !
Yep. On account of the TBTF banks 'needing' to raise capital. Pump, raise, dump. Let the window come down - along with the major averages. Once they think the banks will slip the noose, the rest of us are sca-rewed.
they are destroying the dollar by pumping this 130 PE market.
just look!
here
the 130 PE market won't last.
and all your stocks, denominated in dollars, will be vaporized.
In prepared remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is telling senators that consumers and investors need protections against manipulation and deception in financial services.
Perhaps waving with his right hand as his left hand gives trillions of TARP $$$ to the too big to fail banks then he jerks off !
--- - .. ... .... . .-. - --.. (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 9:53 am
wasn't referring to you byz
That's okay, I'm still a Factualist agent. =)
I'm no expert but it always concerns me when govt bonds and stock's go up at the same time. So we have "flight to safety" and a greater "flight to equity"... especially with commodities skyrocketing! Maybe Benny or Timmy had some time yesterday to ask the Great 19 to throw some money back at us...
You'd almost think that guarantees the market will be pumped over 930.
925 but I won't quibble: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l8gHrhQiXlE/ShMW072L9JI/AAAAAAAAAWU/UW7Dxqe1BL8/s1600-h/afl.png
Fighting endless 2-front wars far away, against opponents that are unidentifiable, as opposed to all of our troops sticking out like sore thumbs, is a recipe for disaster capitalism.
they give you a 130 PE market, soon to be a negative PE market.
TAKE IT.
sell and flee, watch the beast suffocate.
the beast thrives on lies and deception.
the powers that be need the market.
no one man needs the market.
the healing has begun supposedly...
Geithner says financial market healing - MarketWatch
Byz, left you a paragraph on dead thread. You're so smart but you couldn't do any union job in the Court System efficiently for one day without months of training except clean toilets, if you have experience. The union would not waste its leverage trying to keep you in the job.
Okay, survivalists, tin foil hat folk, conspiracy nuts of every stripe. Think geo-political. Iran. Israel. Iraq. Afghanistan. China.
What is the situation?
What is the mission?
Describe the execution of mission.
Command and control
Logistics and support.
The five paragraphs of any field order.
The Khyber Pass is effectively blocked, denying Chinese access to overland support and/or deployment to Iranian theater. The Ba'athist political bloc has been rendered split with taking of Iraq. Israel as proxy is threatening raid on Iran. All routes of ingress and egress are now controlled by US and allies. Reallocation of troop strength effected in anticipation of changing needs within the theater.
What is the mission?
"Me thinks it is possible they could take DC just as easily. I have a hard time believing they will shoot American civilians so easily..."
As ever, Kent State comes to mind. Once anti-war activists had been demonized as anti-American the National Guard had no problems shooting them down. And racism and outsider status not an issue...these were white kids.
the only strength the beast has is harnessing the greed of the masses.
if you buy the 130 PE market you are pure greed.
how long do you think before that greed gets answered?
how long can you hold the hand of the devil?
how can you help your children holding the hand of the devil?
You think they would shoot into crowds of 10k-20k? Maybe the police will? We're not at the point where you get that type of crowd without big media support...
Afghanistan is now about containment not winning due to the fire burning in Pakistan. The US has been restraining Israel since 2004 from attacking Iran. The US had clear evidence of Iranian troop involvement not just bombs and supplies in Iraq, and we never escalated the situation. In fact there were actually several border skirmishes between US and Iranian troops, and nothing came of it, so the US is trying desperately to keep Iran contained. Israel will not wait forever, and Iran just raised the diatribe this week with threats about wiping Israel off the face of the map in 11 days, and this morning introducing a new missile with range to attack Israel supposedly. Overall, the US Army is broke and tired and can't fight a new front anytime soon effectively. Air Force can bomb the hell out of people, but that alone won't win. I honestly don't know what the plan is, but if I was China, I would want WWIII to open up between India and Pakistan. Weaken India, US would have to be involved somehow, and China inherits the world when it is all over.
....."leave the market and choke them to death."
....good advice not heeded by many.
"prolific and clever individuals", nor "dumbass to function as lightning rods"
.........my lightning rod, prolific & clever days are over, my dumbass days are not.
"all your stocks, denominated in dollars, will be vaporized. "
UDN and PCRDX should be just fine, thank-you
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Wed, 5/20/2009 - 10:01 am
Byz, left you a paragraph on dead thread. You're so smart but you couldn't do any union job in the Court System efficiently for one day without months of training except clean toilets, if you have experience.
Left you a reply. I would say your argument illustrates the problem.
ichael Pomerleano...."Quarter of credit to GDP exceeding the prior crisis credit to GDP"
Why would anyone want credit to GDP to expand beyond the levels that capsized their systems? What purpose is served by such unstable levels of credit? Better to maintain private debt to GDP within a range that promotes long term stability.
Let CPI prices gradually fall so that consumers can buy the extra goods made available by increased productivity. Don't force consumers to borrow unrepayable sums to buy the widgets.
A new bull market? No more Financial Crisis? Does Buy & Hold Work?
very compelling
as written in more detail http://www.wallstreetjournal.com/story/market_implode_or_rally?
"wasn't referring to you byz"
Your chart on the Architecture Billings Index is great, could you provide me with the date behind the chart? My boss has asked me to do some analysis on the construction industry and this is one of the key metrics he is looking for. The AIA website is very cumbersome and finding this data all in one place is very difficult.
Any info you could provide would be great.
digger4385@netzero.net