"The WSJ analysis showed that about two-thirds of the banks, under the "more adverse" scenario, will be below the "level considered comfortable by regulators" without raising additional capital."
I assume since (based on earlier thread) that since odds of fed lending small banks the 24 Billion for res, that chances are they wont entertain the 100Billion here...
or let the small banks get sucked down the Lehman drain and have the patriotic GS, JPM, Pimpco save us by paying pennies on the dollar for their CRE portfolio's
Question do smaller banks have higher deposit funding mix? if so is the admin prepared to impose haircuts for failed banks outside realm of FDIC "insured"
the day after they announce that large banks should be dismantled into smaller banks...that is the standard Motis operandi i believe.
Like having the white house publically announce they are going after corporate off shore tax havens and has behind him the one congressman that was most recently busted for having an off shore tax haven....
Or for announcing new emission standards tomorrow for cars and have a CA governor and the failed MI governor beside him....
Who wants to see a picture of the Lenin statue in Fremont, WA?!
Right, we all know that what the Bolsheviks were really about was backstopping the debt piled up by the Czar and his family.
This confusion between (1) socialism or communism and (2) desperately propping up the tottering remains of a blown out capitalist debt edifice is really getting on my nerves.
"This confusion between (1) socialism or communism and..."
No, I was being serious. I'm about 100 ft from the Lenin statue and I'm thinking about taking a picture.
It wasn't a commentary on the backstop, capitalism or anything else.
I'm moderately amused that you interpreted it that way.
I'm still amazed whenever I drive by that statue, that it even exists.
did this info come to light before or after TG announced the economy is improving?
Watched an interview of Timmy today. He was asked how he liked the job. He said it was a pleasure to serve but he spent alot of time away from his family.
We live in a world so far removed from reality that it not even funny..
//Watched an interview of Timmy today. He was asked how he liked the job. He said it was a pleasure to serve but he spent alot of time away from his family.//
Who wants to see a picture of the Lenin statue in Fremont, WA?!
Right, we all know that what the Bolsheviks were really about was backstopping the debt piled up by the Czar and his family.
This confusion between (1) socialism or communism and (2) desperately propping up the tottering remains of a blown out capitalist debt edifice is really getting on my nerves.
Actually it is contained to subprime and will not affect/effect our economy....i belive that was last September..?
in better days:
``Housing created a lot of ancillary economic activity and jobs, and now we are in the reverse process,'' says Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust Corp. in Chicago and a former Fed economist
``The subprime mess is now spreading to banks,'' says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts
Bernanke told Congress on March 28 that subprime defaults were ``likely to be contained.''
On July 18, he told Congress that ``rising delinquencies and foreclosures are creating personal, economic and social distress for many homeowners and communities -- problems that likely will get worse before they get better.''
Paulson said June 20 that subprime fallout ``will not affect the economy overall.''
Credit card giant hopes to lower costs by an extra $800 million this year
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- American Express said late Monday that it's cutting roughly 4,000 more jobs and will reduce spending on marketing and business development to help it save an extra $800 million this year.
OT: For anyone who's following the mol biological/medical aspects of the H1N1 saga, here's a link from NEJM. There's also a whole set of historical papers from the 1918-9 pandemic, and even one from 1837 ( -- Wow, 1837, Louis Pasteur was still in diapers -- OK not quite). Just follow the links ...
Obama and his bought and paid for economic team already shot their collective wads with trillions to the 19 too big to fail banks
States like Cali and other states to follow..... you're on your own
Smaller U.S. Banks which need just need $24 Billion Calculated Risk: Report: Smaller U.S. Banks need $24 Billion in Capital........ you're on your own
Small Banks Face $100 Billion in CRE Losses ....... you're on your own
Gee isn't it great to be 'pseudo king' of the Banking Oligarchs.
It would be totally simpler if the government just declared "catastrophe" in all manner of banking. Why are we waiting, suffering, for the incompetence of bankers, government and large corporations, before the truth is known?
you and i know that, you and i have known that, i am afraid that the vast majority that even know there might be problem think that the magical appearing money in DC will handle it...
Heard an interesting statement indirectly from a bar regular today.......Add the real unemployed, people on social security, the disabled, the incarcerated, the ones on State Aid, and the ones who just don't work, and it totals over 50% of the workforce. Has anyone ever heard of such a statistic?
Calling it another "tool to our toolbox" SBA head Karen Mills said the new American Recovery Capital (ARC) program will offer "viable" small businesses temporary six-month loans of up to $35,000.
The interest-free loan must be used within six months and borrowers have up to six years to repay it. The only other stipulation is that it cannot be used to pay any previous SBA-backed loan the business may have outstanding.
Twenty years from now, assuming I survive, I'll be a relatively young 70. In between working and sleeping -- or whatever we'll be busyng ourselves with a that date, I hope to have a good read about these times.
I really hope someday we all find out exactly what went on behind the scenes. Who got what, what they did with it, how much left the country for someone's secret account, etc. -- the whole unvarished truth. None of us has any idea what's being pulled over our eyes.
Until bank share holders get wiped out and bond holders severely impaired we are actually doing more harm by attempting additional capitalization.
These smaller banks will not be recapitalized, they will be fed into The Machine - there will be little left to show they ever even existed except empty pizza boxes.
Someday, with enough data points, we will be able to look back and say what in 2009 was too big to fail and what wasn't. It will be known as the 'Bair Line'...
My wife has House Hunters International on. She likes watching it.
The people on it remind me of the people showing up to buy a house the flipper had just spray painted green.
Everytime I watch the white couple looking at the house somewhere down south, I see Juan and Jose coming over the fence 5 year from now. Moonlight shining on the machetes as they plan on showing the older hubbie what "trophy wife" really means.
I think bernanke must be saying something like this.. my take on exorcism.
"In the Name of the Treasury,
our God and Lord,
strengthened by the intercession of the Immaculate Federal Reserve,
Mother of God,
of Blessed Geithner,
of the Blessed Rubin and Summers and all the Saints.
and powerful in the holy authority of our ministry,
we confidently undertake to repulse the attacks and deceits of the the Blogopshere."
part of me wants to give some cabal enough credit for being smart enough to orchestrate this from back as far as the 60's... seems that this couldnt have happened by accident without someone figuring this out, maybe the door was open when Nixon went to China and then dropped the gold standard...how long has that elite secret society been meeting again?
The smartest richest group of humans on this planet have as much control over reality as a bunch of dung beetles.. and that is a very scary thought for most people.
//part of me wants to give some cabal enough credit for being smart enough to orchestrate this from back as far as the 60's//
Heard an interesting statement indirectly from a bar regular today.......Add the real unemployed, people on social security, the disabled, the incarcerated, the ones on State Aid, and the ones who just don't work, and it totals over 50% of the workforce. Has anyone ever heard of such a statistic?
:: ::
Add in children, stay home moms, etc. and that is about right... To check work backwards - look up the number of those who actually work and divide by total population, subtract by one...
That gives the number of 'officially' employed workers in the USA... about 140MM now... divide by population [300MM?] gives you a little less than 50%. EDIT: therefore more than 50% DON'T work.
Understand that this ratio is a LOT higher now than it was 50 years ago - before women 'started' working... outside the home that is.
Thanks for the NEJM link Samdog, lots to chew on there...this burger is still on the grill and it is looking like someone turned the heat up a notch...
I really hope someday we all find out exactly what went on behind the scenes. Who got what, what they did with it, how much left the country for someone's secret account, etc. -- the whole unvarished truth. None of us has any idea what's being pulled over our eyes.
Don't count on it. We know the whole unvarnished truth about very little.
Let us not forget that Cali votes tomorrow. The voters are likely to reject some spending proposals that will throw that state into a do-or-die situation. Soon, we will know how far the Fed will go in its bailouts. Whatever the outcome, we will know something new -- we will have a new data point.
Don't count on it. We know the whole unvarnished truth about very little.
My sister - lawyer turned historian - says "The past is as unknowable as the future." She got that from somebody else - I think that is pretty accurate.
In some ways this is going to be bigger than GD1.. the operative words are "in some ways".
We could recover from GD1 with some patchwork and wars.. but the demographic profile and spread of technology is going to make this one rather "different".
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:32 pm
We do not know if gravity scales like other basic forces over interstellar and intergalactic distances..
_ _ _ _ _ _
Do you have any opinions about CERN? Do you think that those physicists will wrap things up in neat, tidy fomulas, or will it open another Pandora's Box of incomprehensiblity? (or, even more likely, nothing to tie things together?)
I think we will avoid a financial collapse. But the price will still be high. The free ride that America has been getting for decades will end. The justifications for a worker in China earning $5/ day vs. an American worker earning $100/day are vanishing.
Credit is based on faith. Faith in America is waning. So is the free lunch.
On earth, people like Geithner, Summers, Rubin, Bernanke, Paulson, Blankfein, Thain are running the show.. You have a populace that likes to live in a zero-sum make believe world. "Experts" are incompetent and wrong. Pension funds are f**ked. The financial system is insolvent. The economy is a giant ponzi scheme..
Well real-estate madness is alive and well around here in the Bay Area. My area of Fremont is starting to get house sales this year versus the deadness last year. A house down the block (2100 sq foot) went pending at 719k in one day. No where close to break even versus rent if you run the numbers. Meanwhile in Montclair, Oakland Hills there are some houses that actually make sense when you run the numbers. 500k asking price for 1400 sq foot house with a separate 600 sq foot basement on an 8k lot with very good bay views. This one would easily rent for 2k ( or more if you rented out the basement separately). 20% down brings the numbers pretty close.
Any scientist who claims that they know the truth should be called a charlatan or a priest. Science is about accepting that you do not know the truth, but want to find it.
The idea behind CERN is not bad, but the people running it seem to be intent on proving their theories, not testing them (though they might fool others and themselves into believing that).
dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:33 pm
Don't count on it. We know the whole unvarnished truth about very little.
My sister - lawyer turned historian - says "The past is as unknowable as the future." She got that from somebody else - I think that is pretty accurate.
Didn't Napoleon say something to the effect that 'history is what the winners reach agreement on'?
Sure was true in his case. He was greater than any of his peers, but the British won so we get the old Hitler-Napoleon to this day.
As crazy as it sounds, a really poor 3rd world country would probably be the best place to be, if things crumble in the 1st world...
Right....me and Juan are going to have so much in common - once we get past the anger from centuries of oppressive rule I am sure we will bond over severed body parts and chicken soup
Well real-estate madness is alive and well around here in the Bay Area.
It's returning to the Victor Valley as well, the most affordable place to live in California . . . . (because, as CR has quoted the Spanish a couple times, the place is uninhabitable).
643 house sales in April, up 6% from March and 131% from April 2008, but that's not the story.
REOs have been moving at $60-$80/sf and they have been moving. Today I heard the banks have now drawn the line at $100/sf for anything close to habitable. They would rather sit on them than continue to sell them at lesser numbers.
Guess their balance sheets aren't looking as bad to them as they were a couple months ago.
""Experts" are incompetent and wrong. Pension funds are f**ked. The financial system is insolvent. The economy is a giant ponzi scheme..
Living in hell is actually an upgrade.."
I agree 100% with your first sentence. I think about Dawkins -- he pushes his brand of scientism way beyond whatever evidence suggests. Anything to market his fundamentist scientific truths to nonbelievers -- no different from a Pat Robertson. Like you said, science has to do with seeking truth, but not ruling out things you can't explain with evidence. Once you're almost positive you've got the Truth, you got to stop and figure out why you're likely wrong.
To me, those physicists at CERN are desperately in need of a Nobel Prize. I hope they'll find some useful things, but I don't expect any answers to explain the physical universe once and for all.
I was referring to the rate of decrease with distance.. light behaves like other forces over areas as large as our solar system.. but is not unlikely that it does not dampen down at the same rate as other forces or EM fields over even larger distances.
[What does that take more than 5 minutes to monetize?]
Dangerous Steep Slippery slope. Sooner or later that conclusion will become apparent to just about everyone, most notably, SWF Treasury customers .
Clearly Obama is OK with it. Discipline isn't exactly what he was elected to bring to DC. No one left minding the store and with cheerleaders like Krugman & Stiglitz and Reid & Pelosi running the offense, there's no hope of organically slowing down.
Discipline will be meted out in the bond market soon enough. Then what ?
Coins (paper money has only been around in wide usage for around 100-150 years) are the perfect financial artifact, and not one of them will lie to you.
You can trace humanity back 2,500 years, and watch it's ups and downs financially via round metal discs.
Like you said, science has to do with seeking truth, but not ruling out things you can't explain with evidence.
How about this instead:
Science is about seeking evidence - from evidence you imply truth but can never KNOW truth. If you can't accept not-knowing then you can't accept science.
To me, those physicists at CERN are desperately in need of a Nobel Prize. I hope they'll find some useful things, but I don't expect any answers to explain the physical universe once and for all.
I often wonder just what I could accomplish with my life if mouth-breathing idiots would stop walking up and interrupting me for useless meetings and do-nothing, make-work.
Perhaps I could spend all day commenting on an econ blog...
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 11:00 pm
Would you even recognize the ultimate answer if you saw it?
No data, I'm sure I'd have no clue.
I reached a point long ago that tell's me a mind that evolved from the murky soup and barely clung to survival, probably doesn't have the hardwiring need to solve all the answers of the Universe.
"Reverse osmosis filters.
The power requirement is far less.
Surely the super brainiac high-tech region around that really expensive area (well, used to be expensive) can figure all that out? Smile
"
my kitchen ro filter runs on 40 psi. i would guess a cistern could provide that much pressure. the problem is ro filters discharge about 2 or three gallons for every gallon of clean water produced.
i bet in the future there will be nukular powered desalinating supertankers that cross the ocean manufacturing water along the way to delivery points all over the world.
by the way brazil has the largest freshwater aquifer in the world. 10 times larger than our ogallala.
George W's 100,000 hectare ranch sits right above the paraguay part of the aquifer.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:04 pm
Tell that to most "scientists".
//If you can't accept not-knowing then you can't accept science.//
most "scientists" are actually naive logical positivists, particularly the zealots.
In your effort at sarcasm, you accidentally said the obvious..
//I often wonder just what I could accomplish with my life if mouth-breathing idiots would stop walking up and interrupting me for useless meetings and do-nothing, make-work.//
Excellent read from Samdog's link upthread from the New England Journal of Medecine (NEJM).
The Signature Features of Influenza Pandemics — Implications for Policy
[snip]
Past pandemics were characterized by a shift in the virus subtype, shifts of the highest death rates to younger populations, successive pandemic waves, higher transmissibility than that of seasonal influenza, and differences in impact in different geographic regions. Although influenza pandemics are classically defined by the first of these features, the other four characteristics are frequently not considered in response plans.
[snip] The third feature, a pattern of multiple waves, characterized all three 20th-century pandemics, each of which caused increased mortality for 2 to 5 years (see chart).1 The lethal wave in the autumn of 1918 was preceded by a first wave in the summer that led to substantial morbidity but relatively low mortality in both the United States and Europe. Recent studies suggest that these early mild outbreaks partially immunized the population, decreasing the mortality impact of the main pandemic wave in the fall of 1918.2 In the United States, the 1957 influenza A/H2 pandemic had three waves in the United States, with notable excess mortality in the nonsuccessive winter seasons of 1959 and 1962 — the latter being 5 years after the initial emergence of the pandemic strain.1 From 1968 through 1970, Eurasia had a mild first influenza season, with the full effects on morbidity and mortality occurring in the second season of pandemic-virus circulation. The reasons for multiple waves of varying impact are not precisely understood, but they probably include adaptation of the virus to its new host, demographic or geographic variation, seasonality, and the overall immunity of the population.1,2 The occurrence of multiple waves potentially provides time for health authorities to implement control strategies for successive waves. NEJM -- The Signature Features of Influenza Pandemics -- Implications for Policy
"Science is about seeking evidence - from evidence you imply truth but can never KNOW truth. If you can't accept not-knowing then you can't accept science."
Not to lay it on, but - right on, man. Most people who claim allegiance to science don't understand this. Anyone who has studied Quantum Mechanics understands it intimately.
Diethyl Ether was known to alchemists as early as the 13th century AD and it's effects on consciousness were well known in the 1600s.. so why did it take until the mid 1800s for people to use it as an anesthetic? Think about it.. it tells you something about the way people perceive reality.
//I reached a point long ago that tell's me a mind that evolved from the murky soup and barely clung to survival, probably doesn't have the hardwiring need to solve all the answers of the Universe.//
//If you can't accept not-knowing then you can't accept science.//
:: ::
I've had that discussion with some - been a while, late 70s - one was a heavyweight in his specialty too [physical chemistry of biopolymers esp. protein water interaction & 'folding'] - they didn't disagree with that concept much...
One would often say "Truth is always bracketed by your choice of alpha and beta."
Another great line of his was "Everything you do in science is wrong - the trick to having a long and successful career at it is finding your mistakes & publishing BEFORE your peers find your mistakes and publish." He was a cool old man and wanted me to go after my PhD in P Chem - I didn't, went chem engineering instead and got a job - but never forgot the guy.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 8:19 pm
They are now in the 12th level of hell.. sorry.. had to do some expansions..
//The last transmission from Dave Poole as he entered the seventh circle of hell: "My God, it's full of bankers!"//
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:19 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
They are now in the 12th level of hell.. sorry.. had to do some expansions..
excellent. I am sure you expanded by borrowing on credit from heaven and leveraged it to hell. just don't let them know the physical universe is just another ponzi scheme or you may have competition.
Been reading: The New Deal and the Problem of Monopoly: A Study in Economic Ambivalence
by Ellis Hawley
And I can not help coming to the realization that Dr. Ben is an Idiot. His actions so far, may be preventing this downturn from becoming a depression and instead setting up the conditions for the next downturn to be GD II.
What is serious - seriously? Most folks seem to write it off as a concern since we didn't have brain devouring zombies in the streets within 48 hours of the initial identification...
Any discussion of the issues relating to the mathematics of a pandemic and the resource constraints of the current health care system will end up hijacked by political discussion given the current landscape. I'll be keen to see what comes out of the WHO congress this week and whether they call a level 6 or not, because that is the current state of the world, and will bear directly on whether or not sufficient resources are dedicated to preparing for both the certain impacts and the probable/possible.
Clearly serious, and potentially very serious IMNSHO - YMMV.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:25 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
No.. just used local labor.. You can choose an eternity of repetitive torture or expand hell.. your choice. I believe in free will.
one wireless keyboard ruined. a pity, but it had a good and long life
I guess all I've heard is true - hell is an equal-opportunity employer!
When is the last time your boss gave you a choice to do something creative on a new project... and I am supposed to be lucifer.. do you see the problem with our current system.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:27 pm
No. BHO has made it abundantly clear that it is time to move forward and accept our diminished futures.
Ir's all for the greater glory of American finance.
not diminished futures; we'll just call it a realm of lowered expectations
@energycon - Swine Flu (so far) is serious in that no one is inoculated against it (no exposure, no vaccines). As such, a lot more people will become infected with it than normal seasonal flu due to its "newness'. For that reason alone death rates from Swine Flu should be higher than "regular" seasonal influenza - a disease that most of us (incorrectly) don't take too seriously. To that extent, swine flu is serious. Beyond that, I think it's mostly hype.
It's time for me to go to bed. In the course of this post I spelled "flu" as "flue", "flew", "fluw"... among others... before correction. Wine and exhaustion has set in. Night all.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:31 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
When is the last time your boss gave you a choice to do something creative on a new project... and I am supposed to be lucifer.. do you see the problem with our current system.
shuffling paper or electrons from one hand to the other with your eyes closed doesn't actually create infinite energy? who knew? be glad we lack a universal control system or money might REALLY get out of hand... both of them.
Actually - I was going to say that but thought it too 'snarky'... but 'ya' there is that too.
And my prof's knew it well - one of them I kept in touch with for awhile and later when I became a sales guy said it proved to him I would have done well in science as there is DAMNED LITTLE DIFFERENCE between grant writing and pitching a potential client - except you can make more money pitching the client.
I thought it was universally accepted that good things come in small sweaters. Oh wait, that's next years motto.
Good things come in small packages - as in small benefit packages.
Thanks for the bonuses, suckers! Enjoy your frugal retirements and keep a stiff upper lip for all those ailments. You can come clip our hedges in the Hamptons if you are in serious need of some extra coin. It turns out we couldn't outsouce that gig.
But bad news sells and the media machine is looking for the next boogie man to occupy the news cycle. Don't be surprised if there are people in senior levels of the media groups making some coin on purchases of pharma shares for those in the running for handling vaccines.
The tagline on Zerohedge.com is correct in noting in the long-term, everyone has a 100% mortality rate.
we're going to need a common enemy to get out of this jam.... hopefully its not a war.... but something that makes people hunker down and accept less and work harder... maybe swineflu.... (not that i'm excited about or encouraging death etc...) ((think we're in a financial pickle now, imagine if 20% of the capital was no longer needed to support day to day activities... bonus if anyone can explain if it would be inflationary or deflationary... alot of ways its like it is now.... slowing velocity but more dollars per capita "available"...))
3:47 pm - Never Enough: Treasuries fell apart again today, resuming the extended trend of higher yields with the longer end taking the heat of the hit as the market questions the Fed's ability to keep a lid on rates while rallying stocks, pipeline supply and return to higher risk helped drag on prices. The Fed bought $3.18B of 10-to-14-yrs with the bulk being in the Aug 2020 space and bringing the total of their "tentative" 6-mo, "up to" $300B treasury
Taking bets: which primary dealers got whacked today on the price of their inventory?
Primary Dealers
BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Banc of America Securities LLC
Barclays Capital Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Securities America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Dresdner Kleinwort Securities LLC
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Greenwich Capital Markets, Inc.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
UBS Securities LLC
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:42 pm
Thanks for the bonuses, suckers! Enjoy your frugal retirements and keep a stiff upper lip for all those ailments. You can come clip our hedges in Hamptons if you are in serious need of some extra coin. It turns out we couldn't outsouce that gig.
steady service jobs for a wealthy feudal lord will be in such demand that advantage from wage arbitrage will quickly go away for any type of physical labor. and the quality of the applicant pool rises substantially while labor cost decreases. so even if you could outsource it, there would be no economic reason to do so. ahh... the joys of globalization.
Good think that JPM, GS, MS etc are deTARPing, that money will get recycled right back out to the lil banks. Wonder what the odds are that the terms will be any tougher than the give away to the big guys (see Warren's est that we overpayed by $76 bil in the $350 1st trauche of the TARP). My guess is somewhat, but still a sweet deal. The eye popping bonuses dont tend to come from the $7 billion in assets banks anyways, so the pay restrictions will be sort of a mute point. So if we get back say $60 bil, will go to capital injection program, and we get maybe $50 billion of value in pref stock/warrants etc.
The implications of what follows from your statements is what concerns me...starting with a lot more people catching it. This novel variant is showing a rather cozy relationship with warm weather, and is continuing to spread at this time. I find that deeply concerning, because in a typical pandemic the growth rate is an exponential function...and when will we see the peak number of new cases? that matters, because the peak number of new hospitalizations will occur then, and stands a good chance of exceeding the capacity of the medical system (how much swing capacity to deliver intubation and respirator supported care in an ICU exists in your community?).
Death rates are typically elevated from the seasonal influenza, but even at the same Clinical Fatality Rate as seasonal influenza the absolute number of deaths would be elevated due to the larger percentage of the population that gets the disease. Tie that larger base to a higher CFR and it is possible to rapidly generate multiples of the typical number of deaths due to seasonal influenza...and if the scenario includes a medical delivery system that gets overloaded in some locales...
Hence a cause for some serious concern. And one that is likely to be around for awhile, as the information in the NEJM link I posted above discusses the wave behavior of previous pandemics over cycle times of 2-5 years after they emerge. The good news then, is the time to prepare except that harsh's a lot of folks mellow and puts a damper on the whole rainbows, unicorns and skittles theme...so we will see what comes out of the WHO and whether or not we get our act together.
Can't recall the name of the book, but about two years ago read about the effects of the great plague on the social/economic fabric of 14th century society.
Major effect was a deflation in property since there was such an overhang available after the owners died. Second was the impact on the wage level since surviving workers came into demand. Unfortunately, third was the thriving of the legal profession with the work that had to be done for all manner of property dispersal, wills, etc.
So if you're a plumber who specializes in wills and estates, you're golden.
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:52 pm
"I guess all I've heard is true - hell is an equal-opportunity employer! "
You should read Niven's latest. Demons replaced by bureaucrats...
not far from the truth, I fear. the first time I encountered the logical problem of "Maxwell's sorting demon" the image that came to mind was a suit shuffling paper. I think I smiled a little. medieval demonology and angelology is composed of byzantine power hierarchies.
Here's something I find odd. Inflation since 1990 has been < 3%. And yet everyone feels they need 8% to 12% returns to keep up. Weird.
I used to participate in a lot of union pension and benefit negociations. Pre-bubble. Back then, nobody EVER talked about 8% to 12% long term returns. And yet, inflation at the time was much higher.
Wall street sold investors a bill of bullsh%t. For a big fat fee of course.
Someone should write a song for their children to sing: Gloriously: NY
bankers pass their debt onto the common and slink away from defense of
capitalism, during crisis periods, when capitalism might need a
defender. NY banks then want to privatize their profits. Privatize their gains during the good years. Have one bad year in the cycling of
capitalism and there is Paulson as their front man, to unload their
debt onto others.
Chorus: In a hurry to offload their debt obligations, and in a hurry
to be private again.
"The WSJ analysis showed that about two-thirds of the banks, under the "more adverse" scenario, will be below the "level considered comfortable by regulators" without raising additional capital."
Lower the level then.
We haven't yet witnessed the deluge. In anything.
Just sit tight, folks. You won't miss out on anything.
Holy F**k!
CR,
I assume since (based on earlier thread) that since odds of fed lending small banks the 24 Billion for res, that chances are they wont entertain the 100Billion here...
An easy solution would be to give more TARP money to the large 19 banks so they could take out all the competition.
/snark
Actually, CR has been telling us for years about the C&D loans.
This is just one of many shoes left to drop.
It's gonna rain shoes.
How about the level considered comfortable by PE and LBO slavering hordes?
C
so how long till the overall economic picture starts looking better? IE second deriv is positive?
"How about the level considered comfortable by PE and LBO slavering hordes?"
Not a problem.
Backstop it!
Who wants to see a picture of the Lenin statue in Fremont, WA?!
or let the small banks get sucked down the Lehman drain and have the patriotic GS, JPM, Pimpco save us by paying pennies on the dollar for their CRE portfolio's
I'll gladly sign as your secured creditor guarantor if you'll sign mine...additional terms are very favorable.
levered meat dope.
Dr Evil: One Hundred Billion Dollars
That is a very cheap price tag for not destroying the world. How much have we poured into AIG till date?
opportunity knocks
American Express to Cut 4,000 Jobs as Reserves Set Aside for Card Defaults
American Express Will Slash 4,000 Jobs, Take Charge (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Austin Powers - 100 billion dollars
YouTube - Austin Powers - 100 billion dollars
$100 billion +/-?
No problem -- that's chump change compared to what's been dropped already.
The WSJ is implying that we really only need 19 banks, that should be more than enough for everybody. /snark
Seriously, wasn't there a post earlier about the small banks needing a much smaller number. Or was that only for residential exposure?
Question do smaller banks have higher deposit funding mix? if so is the admin prepared to impose haircuts for failed banks outside realm of FDIC "insured"
the day after they announce that large banks should be dismantled into smaller banks...that is the standard Motis operandi i believe.
Like having the white house publically announce they are going after corporate off shore tax havens and has behind him the one congressman that was most recently busted for having an off shore tax haven....
Or for announcing new emission standards tomorrow for cars and have a CA governor and the failed MI governor beside him....
CalculatedRisk,
You should put a link to the Dr. Evil clip.. he made more reasonable demands.
Backstop it!
Who wants to see a picture of the Lenin statue in Fremont, WA?!
Right, we all know that what the Bolsheviks were really about was backstopping the debt piled up by the Czar and his family.
This confusion between (1) socialism or communism and (2) desperately propping up the tottering remains of a blown out capitalist debt edifice is really getting on my nerves.
All priced in.
so how long till the overall economic picture starts looking better?
How about now?
http://static.zooomr.com/images/6258785_a8dd01754c.jpg
There's got to be a tipping point soon.
Hmmmm.... including everything, that's 124 billion those banks will need.
I'm trying to remember... weren't these guys the same group that promised us that 'subprime is contained'?
Obama, Bush, Obama, Bush ... on this one count, they don't seem that different.
did this info come to light before or after TG announced the economy is improving?
Prices of Treasury coupon securities took a shellacking today with the longer maturities suffering the largest relative declines. Across the Curve » Blog Archive » Bond Market Close May 18 2009
Something tells me this might be the headline for say the next 8 months of so....
Nope.. we already passed that point in the late 1970s.. now we are racing into the wall of reality.
//There's got to be a tipping point soon.//
This is great! I hope the FDIC closes lots of banks.
Disclosure: I'm long pizza chains that will deliver to banks on Friday evenings.
"This confusion between (1) socialism or communism and..."
No, I was being serious. I'm about 100 ft from the Lenin statue and I'm thinking about taking a picture.
It wasn't a commentary on the backstop, capitalism or anything else.
I'm moderately amused that you interpreted it that way.
I'm still amazed whenever I drive by that statue, that it even exists.
did this info come to light before or after TG announced the economy is improving?
Watched an interview of Timmy today. He was asked how he liked the job. He said it was a pleasure to serve but he spent alot of time away from his family.
We live in a world so far removed from reality that it not even funny..
//Watched an interview of Timmy today. He was asked how he liked the job. He said it was a pleasure to serve but he spent alot of time away from his family.//
Facing $100 billion in losses?
Somehow I think it is the opposite end from the face that will be adversely impacted.
Timmie to the rescue!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fremont_Lenin_Christmas_2006.jpg
he wouldnt make much of a migrant worker i bet...
Yalt (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 6:45 pm
* reply
* Ignore user
Backstop it!
Who wants to see a picture of the Lenin statue in Fremont, WA?!
Right, we all know that what the Bolsheviks were really about was backstopping the debt piled up by the Czar and his family.
This confusion between (1) socialism or communism and (2) desperately propping up the tottering remains of a blown out capitalist debt edifice is really getting on my nerves.
Now that is a heck of a turn of phrase ....
yossarian,
Actually it is contained to subprime and will not affect/effect our economy....i belive that was last September..?
in better days:
``Housing created a lot of ancillary economic activity and jobs, and now we are in the reverse process,'' says Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust Corp. in Chicago and a former Fed economist
``The subprime mess is now spreading to banks,'' says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts
Bernanke told Congress on March 28 that subprime defaults were ``likely to be contained.''
On July 18, he told Congress that ``rising delinquencies and foreclosures are creating personal, economic and social distress for many homeowners and communities -- problems that likely will get worse before they get better.''
Paulson said June 20 that subprime fallout ``will not affect the economy overall.''
At this rate they are soon going to have a negative number of employees.. say -100,000..
May 18, 2009, 6:40 p.m. EST
AmEx to cut 4,000 more jobs, reduce spending
AmEx to cut 4,000 more jobs, reduce spending - MarketWatch
Credit card giant hopes to lower costs by an extra $800 million this year
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- American Express said late Monday that it's cutting roughly 4,000 more jobs and will reduce spending on marketing and business development to help it save an extra $800 million this year.
OT: For anyone who's following the mol biological/medical aspects of the H1N1 saga, here's a link from NEJM. There's also a whole set of historical papers from the 1918-9 pandemic, and even one from 1837 ( -- Wow, 1837, Louis Pasteur was still in diapers -- OK not quite). Just follow the links ...
H1N1 Influenza Center | From the Publishers of the New England Journal of Medicine
Obama and his bought and paid for economic team already shot their collective wads with trillions to the 19 too big to fail banks
States like Cali and other states to follow..... you're on your own
Smaller U.S. Banks which need just need $24 Billion Calculated Risk: Report: Smaller U.S. Banks need $24 Billion in Capital........ you're on your own
Small Banks Face $100 Billion in CRE Losses ....... you're on your own
Gee isn't it great to be 'pseudo king' of the Banking Oligarchs.
Piss boy come here please
YouTube - The French Revolution (from The History of The World Part 1)
$100 billion. Pfff. Small potatoes. Ben can print that without breaking a sweat.
That's not even 2 Madoff's.
Heck it's only 5 Kerviels - what a piker that guy was.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 9:51 pm reply Ignore user We live in a world so far removed from reality that it not even funny..
man do I concur! and it almost seems like we can count those that see it on one hand.....
Fiduciary Doodie,
The system was insolvent for years.. nowadays it is obvious.. that is all.
It would be totally simpler if the government just declared "catastrophe" in all manner of banking. Why are we waiting, suffering, for the incompetence of bankers, government and large corporations, before the truth is known?
lucifer,
you and i know that, you and i have known that, i am afraid that the vast majority that even know there might be problem think that the magical appearing money in DC will handle it...
Yes! They are "growing" by cutting expenses! When will people wise up? These companies are shrinking, not growing!
What does that take more than 5 minutes to monetize?
Apologies for the misunderstanding, Broward. At least I gave some (moderate) amusement in the process....
Until bank share holders get wiped out and bond holders severely impaired we are actually doing more harm by attempting additional capitalization.
It goes without saying,
Hoocoodanode?
Time to check your bank
FDIC: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
FDIC: Institution Directory
Guess I picked a really bad week to give up sniffing solvency...
sporkfed (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 6:46 pm
There's got to be a tipping point soon.
Past the tipping point, heading toward the Vanishing Point.
Heard an interesting statement indirectly from a bar regular today.......Add the real unemployed, people on social security, the disabled, the incarcerated, the ones on State Aid, and the ones who just don't work, and it totals over 50% of the workforce. Has anyone ever heard of such a statistic?
SBA announces emergency funding for small businesses
SBA announces emergency funding for small businesses
| Reuters
Calling it another "tool to our toolbox" SBA head Karen Mills said the new American Recovery Capital (ARC) program will offer "viable" small businesses temporary six-month loans of up to $35,000.
The interest-free loan must be used within six months and borrowers have up to six years to repay it. The only other stipulation is that it cannot be used to pay any previous SBA-backed loan the business may have outstanding.
Twenty years from now, assuming I survive, I'll be a relatively young 70. In between working and sleeping -- or whatever we'll be busyng ourselves with a that date, I hope to have a good read about these times.
I really hope someday we all find out exactly what went on behind the scenes. Who got what, what they did with it, how much left the country for someone's secret account, etc. -- the whole unvarished truth. None of us has any idea what's being pulled over our eyes.
Until bank share holders get wiped out and bond holders severely impaired we are actually doing more harm by attempting additional capitalization.
These smaller banks will not be recapitalized, they will be fed into The Machine - there will be little left to show they ever even existed except empty pizza boxes.
Someday, with enough data points, we will be able to look back and say what in 2009 was too big to fail and what wasn't. It will be known as the 'Bair Line'...
No. It is going be ok.
My wife has House Hunters International on. She likes watching it.
The people on it remind me of the people showing up to buy a house the flipper had just spray painted green.
Everytime I watch the white couple looking at the house somewhere down south, I see Juan and Jose coming over the fence 5 year from now. Moonlight shining on the machetes as they plan on showing the older hubbie what "trophy wife" really means.
Fiduciary Doodie,
I think bernanke must be saying something like this.. my take on exorcism.
"In the Name of the Treasury,
our God and Lord,
strengthened by the intercession of the Immaculate Federal Reserve,
Mother of God,
of Blessed Geithner,
of the Blessed Rubin and Summers and all the Saints.
and powerful in the holy authority of our ministry,
we confidently undertake to repulse the attacks and deceits of the the Blogopshere."
Banks for the memories
Of debts they cannot pay
Didn't save for a rainy day
900 are gonna go away...
maybe thats why Lowes did so good lately...they are supplying all these tools in the administrations toolbox...
You give them too much credit.. they are only human.
//I really hope someday we all find out exactly what went on behind the scenes. //
Ministry of Truth (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:15 pm reply Ignore user SBA announces emergency funding for small businesses
Interesting.
Last time I checked, there was no more 'liquidity.' issue. What's the matter -- banks stop lending again?
"You give them too much credit.. they are only human."
Yes, all too much.
Now who's the conspiracy theorist, hmmmmm?
part of me wants to give some cabal enough credit for being smart enough to orchestrate this from back as far as the 60's... seems that this couldnt have happened by accident without someone figuring this out, maybe the door was open when Nixon went to China and then dropped the gold standard...how long has that elite secret society been meeting again?
Black Star Ranch,
20% of people (adults?) in los angeles are on some form of public assistance.
i don't think this includes unemployment insurance either....
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:20 pm
You give them too much credit.. they are only human.
Perhaps.
But GD1 has filled a lot of shelves with headsmacking anecdotes ...
The smartest richest group of humans on this planet have as much control over reality as a bunch of dung beetles.. and that is a very scary thought for most people.
//part of me wants to give some cabal enough credit for being smart enough to orchestrate this from back as far as the 60's//
since 1954
Bilderberg Group - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I'm just glad we were able to bailout Goldman.
Heard an interesting statement indirectly from a bar regular today.......Add the real unemployed, people on social security, the disabled, the incarcerated, the ones on State Aid, and the ones who just don't work, and it totals over 50% of the workforce. Has anyone ever heard of such a statistic?
:: ::
Add in children, stay home moms, etc. and that is about right... To check work backwards - look up the number of those who actually work and divide by total population, subtract by one...
The data source:
St. Louis Fed: Series: CE16OV, Civilian Employment
That gives the number of 'officially' employed workers in the USA... about 140MM now... divide by population [300MM?] gives you a little less than 50%. EDIT: therefore more than 50% DON'T work.
Understand that this ratio is a LOT higher now than it was 50 years ago - before women 'started' working... outside the home that is.
Thanks for the NEJM link Samdog, lots to chew on there...this burger is still on the grill and it is looking like someone turned the heat up a notch...
i thought there was something to the world being run by mice (apologies to Doug Adams).....
The smartest richest group of humans on this planet have as much control over reality as a bunch of dung beetles
i'm surprised no one has tried to blow it up....
Ok.. two questions
How many rich people (%) lost their fortunes in GD1 and the New Deal?
Do you really think it is possible to control emergent systems that are more complex than the "controllers"?
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:22 pm reply Ignore user "You give them too much credit.. they are only human."
Yes, all too much.
Now who's the conspiracy theorist, hmmmmm?
I'm not talking about conspiracy 'theories' or anything close -- I just want the facts. Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction ...
BTW, broward, did you see my Haiku last week. I thought it was pretty clever, but probably just another overestimate on my part ...
I really hope someday we all find out exactly what went on behind the scenes. Who got what, what they did with it, how much left the country for someone's secret account, etc. -- the whole unvarished truth. None of us has any idea what's being pulled over our eyes.
Don't count on it. We know the whole unvarnished truth about very little.
Let us not forget that Cali votes tomorrow. The voters are likely to reject some spending proposals that will throw that state into a do-or-die situation. Soon, we will know how far the Fed will go in its bailouts. Whatever the outcome, we will know something new -- we will have a new data point.
How many rich people (%) lost their fortunes in GD1 and the New Deal?
How many rich people (%) lost their fortunes in GD1 and the New Deal?
Do you want it broken out by 1-5 million fortunes, 5-10, 10-25, and above?
If so, a some, a lot, and 32.3%
Comrade Coinz,
We do not know if gravity scales like other basic forces over interstellar and intergalactic distances..
//We know the whole unvarnished truth about very little.//
"20% of people (adults?) in los angeles are on some form of public assistance."
Got a link for that?
Just make sure the internal temperature reaches at least the minimum time/T combination recommended by USDA/FDA ...
Don't count on it. We know the whole unvarnished truth about very little.
My sister - lawyer turned historian - says "The past is as unknowable as the future." She got that from somebody else - I think that is pretty accurate.
Lucifer, Is hell like Dante described and do you have ring tones?
nova,
In some ways this is going to be bigger than GD1.. the operative words are "in some ways".
We could recover from GD1 with some patchwork and wars.. but the demographic profile and spread of technology is going to make this one rather "different".
nova,
My ring tone is a clip from 2001: A Space Odyssey...
2009, a Debt Odyssey
"The past is as unknowable as the future."
Don't forget the "now."
Don't forget now.
In some ways this is going to be bigger than GD1.. the operative words are "in some ways".
Bigger than a Mongol Horde. Cause then you are talking big. We start talking the return of Timur the Lame and I know you are serious.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:32 pm
We do not know if gravity scales like other basic forces over interstellar and intergalactic distances..
_ _ _ _ _ _
Do you have any opinions about CERN? Do you think that those physicists will wrap things up in neat, tidy fomulas, or will it open another Pandora's Box of incomprehensiblity? (or, even more likely, nothing to tie things together?)
"The past is as unknowable as the future."
Don't forget the "now."
Don't forget now.
Amen.
I think we will avoid a financial collapse. But the price will still be high. The free ride that America has been getting for decades will end. The justifications for a worker in China earning $5/ day vs. an American worker earning $100/day are vanishing.
Credit is based on faith. Faith in America is waning. So is the free lunch.
Enjoy the debt.
nova,
On earth, people like Geithner, Summers, Rubin, Bernanke, Paulson, Blankfein, Thain are running the show.. You have a populace that likes to live in a zero-sum make believe world. "Experts" are incompetent and wrong. Pension funds are f**ked. The financial system is insolvent. The economy is a giant ponzi scheme..
Living in hell is actually an upgrade..
My ring tone is a clip from 2001: A Space Odyssey...
I knew it. Lucifer is a geek. How anyone worships a devil with that as a ring tone is baffling.
As crazy as it sounds, a really poor 3rd world country would probably be the best place to be, if things crumble in the 1st world...
They've been dirt poor for a long time and nobody has much expectations , as opposed to us, who have a long way to fall.
Well real-estate madness is alive and well around here in the Bay Area. My area of Fremont is starting to get house sales this year versus the deadness last year. A house down the block (2100 sq foot) went pending at 719k in one day. No where close to break even versus rent if you run the numbers. Meanwhile in Montclair, Oakland Hills there are some houses that actually make sense when you run the numbers. 500k asking price for 1400 sq foot house with a separate 600 sq foot basement on an 8k lot with very good bay views. This one would easily rent for 2k ( or more if you rented out the basement separately). 20% down brings the numbers pretty close.
We cannot know the past, the present and the future, because everyone is trying to spin those to support their books.
"Experts" are incompetent and wrong. Pension funds are f**ked. The financial system is insolvent. The economy is a giant ponzi scheme..
Yeah, plus nobody speaks English when ever I order take away.
Samdog,
Any scientist who claims that they know the truth should be called a charlatan or a priest. Science is about accepting that you do not know the truth, but want to find it.
The idea behind CERN is not bad, but the people running it seem to be intent on proving their theories, not testing them (though they might fool others and themselves into believing that).
dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:33 pm
Don't count on it. We know the whole unvarnished truth about very little.
My sister - lawyer turned historian - says "The past is as unknowable as the future." She got that from somebody else - I think that is pretty accurate.
Didn't Napoleon say something to the effect that 'history is what the winners reach agreement on'?
Sure was true in his case. He was greater than any of his peers, but the British won so we get the old Hitler-Napoleon to this day.
That house in Oakland is a better buy. The seller in Fremont may be lost in 2006.
History is a fiction agreed upon.
As crazy as it sounds, a really poor 3rd world country would probably be the best place to be, if things crumble in the 1st world...
Right....me and Juan are going to have so much in common - once we get past the anger from centuries of oppressive rule I am sure we will bond over severed body parts and chicken soup
nova,
"I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that"
There's quite a few of you that know economics in great detail, but how many of you know monetary history, aka the history of money?
History is a fiction agreed upon.
I think historians agree about as much and as often as economists.
Juvenal Delinquent,
I prefer to believe in stuff that I can measure and observe.. history is usually a set of stories meant to brainwash the gullible.
dryfly,
Most economists make shamans sound reasonable.
$200B / 900 banks = $222M per bank / 1.5 years = $148M per bank annualized
Is $148M a problem?
Damn, if I put lucifer on ignore this thread shrinks as much as my wifes Irish wool sweater did when I washed it in hot water. Boy, was she pissed.
@nova - what is wrong with you?
It'll be John and Joseph.
Probably why Hegel considered the eyewitness narrative to be the best type of history.
mp ducks.
@Lucifer,
We do not know if gravity scales like other basic forces over interstellar and intergalactic distances..
Gravity appears to hold up well over long distances, including interstellar distances, it breaks down at the quantum level.
nova,
It depends on what is underneath.. sweater torpedoes or bananas.
Hegel had an interesting theory about the stages of history and how it was seen and formed.
poic (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 7:42 pm
Well real-estate madness is alive and well around here in the Bay Area.
It's returning to the Victor Valley as well, the most affordable place to live in California . . . . (because, as CR has quoted the Spanish a couple times, the place is uninhabitable).
643 house sales in April, up 6% from March and 131% from April 2008, but that's not the story.
REOs have been moving at $60-$80/sf and they have been moving. Today I heard the banks have now drawn the line at $100/sf for anything close to habitable. They would rather sit on them than continue to sell them at lesser numbers.
Guess their balance sheets aren't looking as bad to them as they were a couple months ago.
Damn, if I put lucifer on ignore this thread shrinks as much as my wifes Irish wool sweater did when I washed it in hot water. Boy, was she pissed.
Tell her you felted it - felting was all the rage among the back to nature people out here.
""Experts" are incompetent and wrong. Pension funds are f**ked. The financial system is insolvent. The economy is a giant ponzi scheme..
Living in hell is actually an upgrade.."
hahaha! How wise were the ancients.
Lucifer,
I agree 100% with your first sentence. I think about Dawkins -- he pushes his brand of scientism way beyond whatever evidence suggests. Anything to market his fundamentist scientific truths to nonbelievers -- no different from a Pat Robertson. Like you said, science has to do with seeking truth, but not ruling out things you can't explain with evidence. Once you're almost positive you've got the Truth, you got to stop and figure out why you're likely wrong.
To me, those physicists at CERN are desperately in need of a Nobel Prize. I hope they'll find some useful things, but I don't expect any answers to explain the physical universe once and for all.
Comrade Coinz,
I was referring to the rate of decrease with distance.. light behaves like other forces over areas as large as our solar system.. but is not unlikely that it does not dampen down at the same rate as other forces or EM fields over even larger distances.
[What does that take more than 5 minutes to monetize?]
Dangerous Steep Slippery slope. Sooner or later that conclusion will become apparent to just about everyone, most notably, SWF Treasury customers .
Clearly Obama is OK with it. Discipline isn't exactly what he was elected to bring to DC. No one left minding the store and with cheerleaders like Krugman & Stiglitz and Reid & Pelosi running the offense, there's no hope of organically slowing down.
Discipline will be meted out in the bond market soon enough. Then what ?
Diablo,
Coins (paper money has only been around in wide usage for around 100-150 years) are the perfect financial artifact, and not one of them will lie to you.
You can trace humanity back 2,500 years, and watch it's ups and downs financially via round metal discs.
Would you even recognize the ultimate answer if you saw it?
//but I don't expect any answers to explain the physical universe once and for all.//
Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:56 pm
including interstellar distances, it breaks down at the quantum level.
That's why we have Van der Waal's forces, you know -- to hold our little world together ...
Probably why Hegel considered the eyewitness narrative to be the best type of history.
mp ducks.
I'll applaud that comment. None of us know anything at all beyond our experience and by that I mean sensory perception.
Even those who claim knowledge based on reflection are only fooling themsleves.
Now, what was the color of the light when the white truck entered the intersection?
Like you said, science has to do with seeking truth, but not ruling out things you can't explain with evidence.
How about this instead:
Science is about seeking evidence - from evidence you imply truth but can never KNOW truth. If you can't accept not-knowing then you can't accept science.
To me, those physicists at CERN are desperately in need of a Nobel Prize. I hope they'll find some useful things, but I don't expect any answers to explain the physical universe once and for all.
The answer is above: 42.
Tell that to most "scientists".
//If you can't accept not-knowing then you can't accept science.//
"'Experts' are incompetent"
I often wonder just what I could accomplish with my life if mouth-breathing idiots would stop walking up and interrupting me for useless meetings and do-nothing, make-work.
Perhaps I could spend all day commenting on an econ blog...
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 11:00 pm
Would you even recognize the ultimate answer if you saw it?
No data, I'm sure I'd have no clue.
I reached a point long ago that tell's me a mind that evolved from the murky soup and barely clung to survival, probably doesn't have the hardwiring need to solve all the answers of the Universe.
broward said, "
"Reverse osmosis filters.
The power requirement is far less.
Surely the super brainiac high-tech region around that really expensive area (well, used to be expensive) can figure all that out? Smile
"
my kitchen ro filter runs on 40 psi. i would guess a cistern could provide that much pressure. the problem is ro filters discharge about 2 or three gallons for every gallon of clean water produced.
i bet in the future there will be nukular powered desalinating supertankers that cross the ocean manufacturing water along the way to delivery points all over the world.
by the way brazil has the largest freshwater aquifer in the world. 10 times larger than our ogallala.
George W's 100,000 hectare ranch sits right above the paraguay part of the aquifer.
US households have more debt than before the crisis. US banks are more leveraged now than before the crisis.
"Science is about seeking evidence - from evidence you imply truth but can never KNOW truth."
YES! As Indiana Jones told his students, "If you're looking for the truth, the philosophy class is down the hall."
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:04 pm
Tell that to most "scientists".
//If you can't accept not-knowing then you can't accept science.//
most "scientists" are actually naive logical positivists, particularly the zealots.
RockyR,
In your effort at sarcasm, you accidentally said the obvious..
//I often wonder just what I could accomplish with my life if mouth-breathing idiots would stop walking up and interrupting me for useless meetings and do-nothing, make-work.//
Tell that to most "scientists".
YES, AGAIN! And therein lies the orthodoxy of science.
Excellent read from Samdog's link upthread from the New England Journal of Medecine (NEJM).
The Signature Features of Influenza Pandemics — Implications for Policy
[snip]
Past pandemics were characterized by a shift in the virus subtype, shifts of the highest death rates to younger populations, successive pandemic waves, higher transmissibility than that of seasonal influenza, and differences in impact in different geographic regions. Although influenza pandemics are classically defined by the first of these features, the other four characteristics are frequently not considered in response plans.
[snip]
The third feature, a pattern of multiple waves, characterized all three 20th-century pandemics, each of which caused increased mortality for 2 to 5 years (see chart).1 The lethal wave in the autumn of 1918 was preceded by a first wave in the summer that led to substantial morbidity but relatively low mortality in both the United States and Europe. Recent studies suggest that these early mild outbreaks partially immunized the population, decreasing the mortality impact of the main pandemic wave in the fall of 1918.2 In the United States, the 1957 influenza A/H2 pandemic had three waves in the United States, with notable excess mortality in the nonsuccessive winter seasons of 1959 and 1962 — the latter being 5 years after the initial emergence of the pandemic strain.1 From 1968 through 1970, Eurasia had a mild first influenza season, with the full effects on morbidity and mortality occurring in the second season of pandemic-virus circulation. The reasons for multiple waves of varying impact are not precisely understood, but they probably include adaptation of the virus to its new host, demographic or geographic variation, seasonality, and the overall immunity of the population.1,2 The occurrence of multiple waves potentially provides time for health authorities to implement control strategies for successive waves.
NEJM -- The Signature Features of Influenza Pandemics -- Implications for Policy
"Science is about seeking evidence - from evidence you imply truth but can never KNOW truth. If you can't accept not-knowing then you can't accept science."
Not to lay it on, but - right on, man. Most people who claim allegiance to science don't understand this. Anyone who has studied Quantum Mechanics understands it intimately.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 7:36 pm
My ring tone is a clip from 2001: A Space Odyssey...
The last transmission from Dave Poole as he entered the seventh circle of hell: "My God, it's full of bankers!"
Energyecon,
Dumb it down for me. Is swine flu a serious concern or just potentially a serious concern?
"In your effort at sarcasm, you accidentally said the obvious.."
::sigh:: That part of my snark actually wasn't sarcasm.
The occurrence of multiple waves potentially provides time for . . . authorities to implement control strategies for successive waves.
So, energyecon, does it work like that for banks and foreclosures too?
Samdog,
Diethyl Ether was known to alchemists as early as the 13th century AD and it's effects on consciousness were well known in the 1600s.. so why did it take until the mid 1800s for people to use it as an anesthetic? Think about it.. it tells you something about the way people perceive reality.
//I reached a point long ago that tell's me a mind that evolved from the murky soup and barely clung to survival, probably doesn't have the hardwiring need to solve all the answers of the Universe.//
Tell that to most "scientists".
//If you can't accept not-knowing then you can't accept science.//
:: ::
I've had that discussion with some - been a while, late 70s - one was a heavyweight in his specialty too [physical chemistry of biopolymers esp. protein water interaction & 'folding'] - they didn't disagree with that concept much...
One would often say "Truth is always bracketed by your choice of alpha and beta."
Another great line of his was "Everything you do in science is wrong - the trick to having a long and successful career at it is finding your mistakes & publishing BEFORE your peers find your mistakes and publish." He was a cool old man and wanted me to go after my PhD in P Chem - I didn't, went chem engineering instead and got a job - but never forgot the guy.
RockyR,
In that case you realize the ridiculousness of our current system.
"Dumb it down for me. Is swine flu a serious concern or just potentially a serious concern?"
Most likely neither.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:12 pm
The last transmission from Dave Poole as he entered the seventh circle of hell: "My God, it's full of bankers!"
a sentiment very appropriate to one glimpsing a singularity, I would guess. financial or otherwise.
that was my question
US households have more debt than before the crisis. US banks are more leveraged now than before the crisis.
But debt is money. That's the beauty of our system. Our problems are our solutions.
It's always a win- win at the big Casino! God wants you to be wealthy or uhhmm... buried in debt! Oh the bounty!
@Lucifer
"In that case you realize the ridiculouness of our current system."
I think I do. It took me awhile to gain enough confidence in myself and what I knew to understand that I was actually right.
"...so why did it take until the mid 1800s for people to use it as an anesthetic?"
The American Medical Association.
ResistanceIsFeudal,
They are now in the 12th level of hell.. sorry.. had to do some expansions..
//The last transmission from Dave Poole as he entered the seventh circle of hell: "My God, it's full of bankers!"//
mp,
You got the concept right.. not the name, though.
It was against popular medical theories.. just like using quinine for malaria contradicted many popular theories.
//The American Medical Association. //
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 8:19 pm
They are now in the 12th level of hell.. sorry.. had to do some expansions..
//The last transmission from Dave Poole as he entered the seventh circle of hell: "My God, it's full of bankers!"//
Can I sharpen the clawback machine?
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:19 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
They are now in the 12th level of hell.. sorry.. had to do some expansions..
excellent. I am sure you expanded by borrowing on credit from heaven and leveraged it to hell. just don't let them know the physical universe is just another ponzi scheme or you may have competition.
RockyR,
I have always found it amusing that people want to believe lies that hurt them rather than follow the obvious truth.
Been reading: The New Deal and the Problem of Monopoly: A Study in Economic Ambivalence
by Ellis Hawley
And I can not help coming to the realization that Dr. Ben is an Idiot. His actions so far, may be preventing this downturn from becoming a depression and instead setting up the conditions for the next downturn to be GD II.
I am hoping reality is harsh and brutal, in the bond maket.
Silence the Stiglitz/Krugman/Geithner/Greenspan bullshit artists in their tracks.
What is serious - seriously? Most folks seem to write it off as a concern since we didn't have brain devouring zombies in the streets within 48 hours of the initial identification...
Any discussion of the issues relating to the mathematics of a pandemic and the resource constraints of the current health care system will end up hijacked by political discussion given the current landscape. I'll be keen to see what comes out of the WHO congress this week and whether they call a level 6 or not, because that is the current state of the world, and will bear directly on whether or not sufficient resources are dedicated to preparing for both the certain impacts and the probable/possible.
Clearly serious, and potentially very serious IMNSHO - YMMV.
ResistanceIsFeudal,
No.. just used local labor.. You can choose an eternity of repetitive torture or expand hell.. your choice. I believe in free will.
I am not a bankster.
//I am sure you expanded by borrowing on credit from heaven and leveraged it to hell//
ah, a containment aficionado...
Can I sharpen the clawback machine?
No. BHO has made it abundantly clear that it is time to move forward and accept our diminished futures.
Ir's all for the greater glory of American finance.
Rob Dawg,
Why not..
//Can I sharpen the clawback machine?/
energyecon,
the oildrum is missing you..
History of money.
Debasement is the main theme.
Methodology of debasement is the interesting variation on the theme.
NW
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:25 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
No.. just used local labor.. You can choose an eternity of repetitive torture or expand hell.. your choice. I believe in free will.
one wireless keyboard ruined. a pity, but it had a good and long life
I guess all I've heard is true - hell is an equal-opportunity employer!
"I have always found it amusing that people want to believe lies that hurt them rather than follow the obvious truth."
WHAT?!? You're the devil for crissake. You're in the BUSINESS of self-loathing. Cummon...
Lenny Bruce - The Truth
ResistanceIsFeudal,
When is the last time your boss gave you a choice to do something creative on a new project... and I am supposed to be lucifer.. do you see the problem with our current system.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:27 pm
No. BHO has made it abundantly clear that it is time to move forward and accept our diminished futures.
Ir's all for the greater glory of American finance.
not diminished futures; we'll just call it a realm of lowered expectations
No.. that is what catholicism is about.. it required a lot of money to build the vatican.
//WHAT?!? You're the devil for crissake. You're in the BUSINESS of self-loathing. Cummon...//
CONJURE'S DEEP THOUGHTS
Today's deep thought:
Conjure says, "Fate is the hunter."
Fate is the hunter - Google Books
"Good night and GOOD LUCK."
Boy, was she pissed.
But, but, but... women look GREAT in tight sweaters!
Science is about seeking evidence
Science is about getting your NSA grant approved.
Everything else is bullshit.
But, but, but... women look GREAT in tight sweaters!
LOL... "But honey - I thought you had an interview with CNBC."
@energycon - Swine Flu (so far) is serious in that no one is inoculated against it (no exposure, no vaccines). As such, a lot more people will become infected with it than normal seasonal flu due to its "newness'. For that reason alone death rates from Swine Flu should be higher than "regular" seasonal influenza - a disease that most of us (incorrectly) don't take too seriously. To that extent, swine flu is serious. Beyond that, I think it's mostly hype.
It's time for me to go to bed. In the course of this post I spelled "flu" as "flue", "flew", "fluw"... among others... before correction. Wine and exhaustion has set in. Night all.
"No.. that is what catholicism is about.. it required a lot of money to build the vatican."
lol! Touche`
Clearly serious, and potentially very serious IMNSHO - YMMV.
I hope you weren't offended by my comment twisting the 'waves' in your quote into banks and foreclosures.
Personally, I think a good pandemic is just what the world needs now.
A couple billion fewer people might make it a better place . . . and would lighten the resource load a bit, too.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:31 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
When is the last time your boss gave you a choice to do something creative on a new project... and I am supposed to be lucifer.. do you see the problem with our current system.
shuffling paper or electrons from one hand to the other with your eyes closed doesn't actually create infinite energy? who knew? be glad we lack a universal control system or money might REALLY get out of hand... both of them.
"Science is about getting you NSA grant approved."
Amen.
Yo, you hear that NSA guy?!
Where's my grant, man?!
Science is about getting you NSA grant approved.
Everything else is bullshit.
Actually - I was going to say that but thought it too 'snarky'... but 'ya' there is that too.
And my prof's knew it well - one of them I kept in touch with for awhile and later when I became a sales guy said it proved to him I would have done well in science as there is DAMNED LITTLE DIFFERENCE between grant writing and pitching a potential client - except you can make more money pitching the client.
Broward:
Write a program confirming global warming and you are 2/3rds of the way there.
I thought it was universally accepted that good things come in small sweaters. Oh wait, that's next years motto.
Good things come in small packages - as in small benefit packages.
Thanks for the bonuses, suckers! Enjoy your frugal retirements and keep a stiff upper lip for all those ailments. You can come clip our hedges in the Hamptons if you are in serious need of some extra coin. It turns out we couldn't outsouce that gig.
energyecon:
Yes, H1N1 is a concern.
But bad news sells and the media machine is looking for the next boogie man to occupy the news cycle. Don't be surprised if there are people in senior levels of the media groups making some coin on purchases of pharma shares for those in the running for handling vaccines.
The tagline on Zerohedge.com is correct in noting in the long-term, everyone has a 100% mortality rate.
"Write a program confirming global warming and you are 2/3rds of the way there."
def proveglobalwarming
degree = 0
day = 0
for day 0...infinity do
if atmosphere.co2.present = TRUE
degree = degree + 1
else
degree = degree + 1
end
end
Show me the money!
we're going to need a common enemy to get out of this jam.... hopefully its not a war.... but something that makes people hunker down and accept less and work harder... maybe swineflu.... (not that i'm excited about or encouraging death etc...) ((think we're in a financial pickle now, imagine if 20% of the capital was no longer needed to support day to day activities... bonus if anyone can explain if it would be inflationary or deflationary... alot of ways its like it is now.... slowing velocity but more dollars per capita "available"...))
off to get some pie.... cheers
nades, we don't need a common enemy because we're not in a jam.
The DOW was up 235 points today. Happy days are here again.
nades,
My crystal ball is murky, but for the first time in my life I am seeing deflation. Not sure it will last, but it's working for me.
Viva deflation!
Bonds Market Summary
3:47 pm - Never Enough: Treasuries fell apart again today, resuming the extended trend of higher yields with the longer end taking the heat of the hit as the market questions the Fed's ability to keep a lid on rates while rallying stocks, pipeline supply and return to higher risk helped drag on prices. The Fed bought $3.18B of 10-to-14-yrs with the bulk being in the Aug 2020 space and bringing the total of their "tentative" 6-mo, "up to" $300B treasury
Taking bets: which primary dealers got whacked today on the price of their inventory?
Primary Dealers
BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Banc of America Securities LLC
Barclays Capital Inc.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Securities America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Dresdner Kleinwort Securities LLC
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Greenwich Capital Markets, Inc.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
UBS Securities LLC
"I guess all I've heard is true - hell is an equal-opportunity employer! "
You should read Niven's latest. Demons replaced by bureaucrats...
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:42 pm
Thanks for the bonuses, suckers! Enjoy your frugal retirements and keep a stiff upper lip for all those ailments. You can come clip our hedges in Hamptons if you are in serious need of some extra coin. It turns out we couldn't outsouce that gig.
steady service jobs for a wealthy feudal lord will be in such demand that advantage from wage arbitrage will quickly go away for any type of physical labor. and the quality of the applicant pool rises substantially while labor cost decreases. so even if you could outsource it, there would be no economic reason to do so. ahh... the joys of globalization.
Good think that JPM, GS, MS etc are deTARPing, that money will get recycled right back out to the lil banks. Wonder what the odds are that the terms will be any tougher than the give away to the big guys (see Warren's est that we overpayed by $76 bil in the $350 1st trauche of the TARP). My guess is somewhat, but still a sweet deal. The eye popping bonuses dont tend to come from the $7 billion in assets banks anyways, so the pay restrictions will be sort of a mute point. So if we get back say $60 bil, will go to capital injection program, and we get maybe $50 billion of value in pref stock/warrants etc.
so even if you could outsource it, there would be no economic reason to do so. ahh... the joys of globalization.
Well, if you can't ship the hedge overseas to be clipped, you can do the next best thing - ship the illegals to the Hamptons to clip the hedge.
There's a reason they are called hedge funds. And remember, most hedge funds don't hedge.
The implications of what follows from your statements is what concerns me...starting with a lot more people catching it. This novel variant is showing a rather cozy relationship with warm weather, and is continuing to spread at this time. I find that deeply concerning, because in a typical pandemic the growth rate is an exponential function...and when will we see the peak number of new cases? that matters, because the peak number of new hospitalizations will occur then, and stands a good chance of exceeding the capacity of the medical system (how much swing capacity to deliver intubation and respirator supported care in an ICU exists in your community?).
Death rates are typically elevated from the seasonal influenza, but even at the same Clinical Fatality Rate as seasonal influenza the absolute number of deaths would be elevated due to the larger percentage of the population that gets the disease. Tie that larger base to a higher CFR and it is possible to rapidly generate multiples of the typical number of deaths due to seasonal influenza...and if the scenario includes a medical delivery system that gets overloaded in some locales...
Hence a cause for some serious concern. And one that is likely to be around for awhile, as the information in the NEJM link I posted above discusses the wave behavior of previous pandemics over cycle times of 2-5 years after they emerge. The good news then, is the time to prepare except that harsh's a lot of folks mellow and puts a damper on the whole rainbows, unicorns and skittles theme...so we will see what comes out of the WHO and whether or not we get our act together.
. . . (see Warren's est that we overpayed by $76 bil in the $350 1st trauche of the TARP) . . . .
Sssshhhhh, those were Hank's friends. They were entitled to that. Let's not offend anyone's sensibilities.
Can't recall the name of the book, but about two years ago read about the effects of the great plague on the social/economic fabric of 14th century society.
Major effect was a deflation in property since there was such an overhang available after the owners died. Second was the impact on the wage level since surviving workers came into demand. Unfortunately, third was the thriving of the legal profession with the work that had to be done for all manner of property dispersal, wills, etc.
So if you're a plumber who specializes in wills and estates, you're golden.
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:52 pm
"I guess all I've heard is true - hell is an equal-opportunity employer! "
You should read Niven's latest. Demons replaced by bureaucrats...
not far from the truth, I fear. the first time I encountered the logical problem of "Maxwell's sorting demon" the image that came to mind was a suit shuffling paper. I think I smiled a little. medieval demonology and angelology is composed of byzantine power hierarchies.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 10:56 pm
There's a reason they are called hedge funds. And remember, most hedge funds don't hedge.
nor fund.
ResistanceIsFeudal,
the banality of evil..
Hey it looks like Larry has been busy lately - was that his latest with Pournelle or what? Cool!
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 11:01 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
the banality of evil..
throwing maidens in volcanoes was a lot more pragmatic. but that's pretty impractical in America. mostly a supply-side problem.
Here's something I find odd. Inflation since 1990 has been < 3%. And yet everyone feels they need 8% to 12% returns to keep up. Weird.
I used to participate in a lot of union pension and benefit negociations. Pre-bubble. Back then, nobody EVER talked about 8% to 12% long term returns. And yet, inflation at the time was much higher.
Wall street sold investors a bill of bullsh%t. For a big fat fee of course.
Sorry to nitpick but shouldn't that be Dave Bowman (Frank Poole was already dead at that point)?
You are correct Sir.
mortgage pig says: you suck
Someone should write a song for their children to sing: Gloriously: NY
bankers pass their debt onto the common and slink away from defense of
capitalism, during crisis periods, when capitalism might need a
defender. NY banks then want to privatize their profits. Privatize their gains during the good years. Have one bad year in the cycling of
capitalism and there is Paulson as their front man, to unload their
debt onto others.
Chorus: In a hurry to offload their debt obligations, and in a hurry
to be private again.
DOW 14000 SOON?
perhaps the financial crisis has been fixed according to various indicators such as libor and yield curves as written in more detail http://www.wallstreetjournal.com/story/market_implode_or_rally?
very compell