not that bad. not that severe. ppl sometimes dont work.. so they're late on payments. so what? theyll get another job sometime and pay it back. you can believe that.obama will never let it get that bad. he worked in the projects in chicago... he knows terrible times. trust is what we need right now. no more hating america.
Federal tax receipts cliff diving is a green shoot?
Here’s what’s going on:
In 2007 and 2008, government tax revenues averaged about $633.15 billion per quarter. For the first quarter of 2009, however, the numbers just in tell us that tax receipts totaled only about $442.39 billion -- a decline of 30%.
Looking to confirm the trend, we compared the data for April – the big kahuna of tax collection months – to the 2007-2008 average, and found that individual income taxes this year were down more than 40%. The situation is even worse for corporate income taxes, which were down a stunning 67%!
Story of the day. Mtg not in foreclosure. Person only 40-50k (!) underwater.
Property not in her name, just hub's and it is homestead. Needs a probate proceeding, since hub is dead.
Why bother I say? You didn't sign the note and thus aren't liable. Oh, it's cheaper than rent. I think it's actually that she lived there with him and doesn't want to leave.
Under Fla homestead, she gets a life estate, and his kid gets a remainder interest. Need a deed from kid.
it seems after reading the NYT story that paying your mortgage is now optional (and with no HELOC for consolidation one can not pay the credit card as well)
Where is today's BABD rhetoric? That GLD/T-Bill strategy played out so well today... Funny how some posters are mysteriously absent when their investment strategies blow up spectacularly.
RockyR, now you have me singing "Bye, bye, Ms. American Pie, drove the Chevy to the levy but the levy was dry...singin' this'll be the day that I die...
Well Chase cutting the benifits from their most popular credit card offered, the Chase Freedom Card
Customers are getting an envelope titled, "Good Things are Coming from Chase Freedom" and subtitled "ENCLOSED: News about improvements to your account."
Highlights of these improvements:
The triple cash back rewards you earn on Everyday spending categories will no longer be available.
The $50 bonus when redeeming $200 in Cash Back Rewards will no longer be available after June 30th.
A $30 annual fee after the first year instead of the previous no annual fee
CalculatedRisk (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 2:25 pm
Rob Dawg, I suspect the rates are still surging - but we won't have Q2 data until August.
You are probably right. At this point it doesn't matter. Even a miraculous reversal still leave DQ rates dangerously high.
book1, I like cliff hiking too. And I'm looking forward to a little climbing / hiking this summer.
Always remember, if you need a place to stay in Wrightwood I'll tell you where the house key is hidden. Me, I may take a few small hikes in the Presidential Range and Shawangunks next month.
I think the kitty is a pet. A wild Ocelot would, I think leave you in the hospital. Also, I think It will get bigger, they are bigger than the housepet variety.
What a beautiful animal.
A big feral alley cat is a dangerous animal even, if well fed.
Maybe kitty was abandoned to the jungle when the house was foreclosed. . .
The claws had some teeth to them..It made some nice puncture wounds in leg on climb up...but once in a lifetime thing so I just went with it....tell mom to declaw if she gets one..
Girlfriend- didnt like is so much when it tried to jump on her....
Liz, I believe they get to around 35 lbs or so. I also think it is no longer legal to purchase them. Mom has since passed so no threat of her getting one but I did know someone that had one and they are incredible creatures.
trust me I was in deep jungle...it could have been fed by other hikers or farmers nearby....didnt have time to stage it...was using a tree for some water retention relief when it appeared..
In 2007 and 2008, government tax revenues averaged about $633.15 billion per quarter. For the first quarter of 2009, however, the numbers just in tell us that tax receipts totaled only about $442.39 billion -- a decline of 30%.
Looking to confirm the trend, we compared the data for April – the big kahuna of tax collection months – to the 2007-2008 average, and found that individual income taxes this year were down more than 40%. The situation is even worse for corporate income taxes, which were down a stunning 67%!
This should be totally joyous news for Libertarians and Neocons, shouldn't it? A decline in payments has to work the same as a tax cut, doesn't it? Since 'deficits don't matter,' as I believe Richard B. Chaney once said, this is a nice giant cut in taxes paid! Should get the economy going in no time!
jesus...it sunk claws into my leg that left blood all the way down from hamstring to boot...life is pain...once in a lifetime thing...maybe it just caught on to my primevel love for pussies....
thank god for pictures...
back to topic...
unless we get credit or debt jubilee, no way we are close to bottom....avg fica score is still following a CR chart to hell....
Make no mistake. Tomorrow after the polls close in California the State and Federal governments will be holding either a joint or coordinated series of news conferences. This is Leader O's own "this sucker's going down" moment.
Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) is attracting a lot of attention for his proposal to audit the Federal Reserve bank, the independent financial powerhouse that creates and regulates our money. In other words, as he wrote in Forbes recently, Paul is 'Fed up' with the complete lack of transparency.
From Dr. Paul's op-ed:
The Federal Reserve's recent and unprecedented actions in the realm of monetary policy have provoked a backlash among the American people. Trillions of dollars worth of loans and guarantees have been provided to Wall Street firms, while Main Street Americans suffocate under harsh taxation, the prospect of higher debt levels and increasing inflation. These events have awakened many Americans to problems with the Fed's loose monetary policy, the bubbles it has created in the past and the potential hyperinflation it might cause in the future.
One of the fallacies of modern economics is the idea that a central bank is required in order to keep inflation low and promote economic growth. In reality, it is the central bank's monetary policy that causes inflation and depresses economic growth. Inflation is an increase in the supply of money, which in our day and age is directly caused or initiated by central banks. All other things being equal, inflation results in a rise in prices. A so-called "mild" rate of inflation of 3% per year leads to a 56% rise in prices over a 15-year period. Even a "low" rate of inflation of 2% per year leads to a 35% rise over that same period. How is that conducive to long-term growth?
A common misconception is that the Fed is completely independent of political pressures. While the Fed has far too much authority to make agreements with foreign governments and central banks, or create temporary liquidity facilities, the governors and--more important--the chairman, are appointed by the president.
Gee wonder if this also had something to do with Ron Paul being Fed up
Apparently nobody at the Federal Reserve has any clue where the trillions of dollars that have come from the Fed's expanded balance sheet have gone. Additionally, nobody there seems to have any idea what the losses on the Fed's $2 trillion portfolio really are. As for the pittance of $9 trillion in Fed off-balance sheet transactions over the past 8 months, well, yeah, that's also somewhere out there... Just don't ask the Federal Reserve where.
TJ and The Bear (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 2:53 pm
reply ignore user
Dawg,
Any predictions on what they'll say?
Bridge bonds guaranteed by the full faith and credit.
IMO, absent will be any form of guarantee of existing debt. Despite this Cal munis etc. will surge and then the unintended consequence shows up. Most Cali munis are far worse off than they admit and an opportunity to float at low rates will cause a flood to market.
Paul's bill, H.R. 1207, has 165 co-sponsors. Its fate is currently in the hands of the House Financial Services Committee's 71 members. Almost all the committee's Republicans have co-sponsored the bill and two Democrats have joined their numbers.
Gavshire Hathaway (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 2:57 pm
reply ignore user
Dawg, how certain is it that the ballot initiatives won't pass?? Have you seen any recent polls?
Props 1A-1E will all go down with 53-62% no. Prop 1F, with no effect, will pass 74%.
aclem: This should be totally joyous news for Libertarians and Neocons,
(not one cent) Libertarians and Neocons are mortal enemies.
aClem again: Yes, on many points. but neither believes they should pay taxes. And most self admitted Libertarians I know vote Republican when the chips are down. If you are not one of those, I salute you.
Comrade Coinz, re: USPS, push comes to shove comes to injury
O/T: this summer is going to be wacky. Everyone trying to get RE sales cleared while there is volume. Higher education enrolment, possibly spitting out more people than they take in which is the reverse of most recessions. Governments that only have enough funds available to maintain cash flow through to autumn. Unemployment under strain as there are more workers available in summer and the automaker shutdowns/layoffs (when's Ford going to announce some dealer closures, surely they'll be given a free pass around state law to delay bankruptcy). All the goods producers' margin of safety will be running low after 6-9 months on contingency fund subsistence. Knock on effects of unemployment + high philly fed index + low labor mobility. Money creation will be ramped up, possibly $2 borrowed/printed for every $1 collected, with budgets as is (no FDIC actually using a $500bn line of credit, no bailing out of states, and other expected unprepared financial disasters).
It's like we've all seen a trailer for a horror movie, we have a pretty good idea of the plot. But it won't have any effect until we step into the theatre this fall and feel the hair on our neck rise.
or perhaps it is like students who have a group project due in 4 months. They meet up once or twice a week and make progress, but 95% of the work will be done in the last 4 days. Everyone knows it will happen, and then it does.
The props had upwards of $24 million backing them (with strong union support) and less than $2 mil against, with ballot wording that is misleading at best. Sacramento really tried to pull a fast one, and they're losing their butts on this one.
If they are going to release criminals in Calif. they might as well release Charlie Manson too. He's old and never convicted of actually DOING violence. I was born and raised in Calif. and loved what it used to be. I sold out near the top when the McMansions invaded and moved to Latin America. I am surprised how Howard Jarvis' name never gets mentioned here. From my eyes that was where it all started. Oh, and we shouldn't forget 3 strikes your out. Oh, and term limits. And the entire initiative process. This is a good movie to watch on DVD. I don't want to sit in the theater when all hell breaks loose.
Thanks for the info RD! Perhaps there is a tiny semblance of sanity in the world? If they do fail, does Obama have any choice besides stepping in and guaranteeing a bunch of Cali bonds? Its a good thing our national balance sheet is unconstrained, otherwise these state revenue shortfalls would be a real bummer, man.
Cali is the super bowl of stupid in government spending. They simply have to lay of tons of people, cut programs and go back to providing basic services that tax collection can support. Cut pension into 401k's or they will be just like GM legacy cost and ultimate BK. The wheels are shaking and starting to fall off and not a bit of reality seen yet.
Oh, and to all of you rubbing your hands in glee in anticipation of the upcoming fiasco in California, be careful what you wish for. Schadenfreude is poor consolation for the aftershocks of what we are about to witness.
Gavshire Hathaway (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 3:20 pm
Thanks for the info RD! Perhaps there is a tiny semblance of sanity in the world? If they do fail, does Obama have any choice besides stepping in and guaranteeing a bunch of Cali bonds? Its a good thing our national balance sheet is unconstrained, otherwise these state revenue shortfalls would be a real bummer, man.
Disclaimer, it isn't "info." I do have some access but I cannot provide anything other than opinion for another 30 hours.
When they fail (presumably) then the Feds have no choice but to step in. The helping hands will come with some interesting handcuffs. Think about MediCal vs Medicare for but one instance.
Mish estimates Cali is bleeding about $2B/month. Even after a summer of carnage, the bleeding may not be stopped.
The state has already said it will seize millions in county and local government taxes to try to plug the hole. That will shift some of the layoffs to front line fire and police, saving some Sacramento politburo jobs.
I think Fall is the peak fire season. All the dried shrubs and green shoots from the summer make perfect fuel for wildfires and arson fires. When combined with a strong Santa Ana wind, you get devastation.
continuing the Cali train of thought,
What might the fallout of a default look like? I assume there will not be much love lost, but if Cali defaulted presumably rates other states are paying would rise and expedite budgetary emergencies, which might cause significant shock
What might be the fallout of a Federal rescue of Cali look like? Relatively low cost up front, but everyone wants as much or more than anyone else in the soup kitchen line
Trifecta when CRE defaults break the record. The other 2 already broke the prior record & in uncharted territory heading to the moon so the recession is clearly over.
"When is peak wildfire season? That has been a significant cost in recent years, correct?"
It used to be in the fall, but not anymore...
8,000 dry lightning strikes all over the northern part of the state caused fires in the summer last year, and last week's fire in SB was way too early.
The big question with fires is water. You have to use freshwater for the most part, so it's a Faustian Bargain...
Do you save houses by drenching water on them, or just let em' burn?
I hope they don't have to make this awful decision, should it come to that...
aClem, I doubt there is much enjoyment in seeing California's predicament. But just as a drug addict needs some rehab to help kick that habit, California and this nation needs rehab.
No recourse? So, the state courts can just say, too bad, we'll pay you 50 cents on the dollar, now go away?
I think the credit markets would have something to say about future Cali bonds in that case (as you said).
In extremely broad brush strokes the California default and reorganization will involve a Federally guided Constitutional Convention with a carrot of Federal recapitalization in a TARP like bailout and some assumption of obligations and some long overdue renumerations. Depending on the participants the Convention will have lots of unintended consequences. Near all bad. IMO anyone ever holding elective office above alderman or holding credit for more than two semesters of law school should be prohibited from participating.
"Cali is the super bowl of stupid in government spending. They simply have to lay of tons of people, cut programs and go back to providing basic services that tax collection can support. Cut pension into 401k's or they will be just like GM legacy cost and ultimate BK. The wheels are shaking and starting to fall off and not a bit of reality seen yet."
That does not sound hopeful for keeping housing prices up. Did Cali not get the "go shopping" (preferably for banks stocks) message?
the main cali problem is the political process--supermajority required to pass state budget. currently the republicans block and the democrats cannot impose budget. been going on for years, major structural deficit during the good times, going sour fast in the bad. property tax limitation made a lot of city and county spending dependent upon the state tax power.
if auto's are off 30% what does that do to your sales tax revenue? clusterfuck
only one or two other states require a supermajority to pass the state budget.
State layoffs start with the newest employees - the veterans, who do the least amount of work humanly possible, are immune to the axe, and they will be the ones left behind to do the work of 3 employees. Trouble is, they can't muster enough work for 1.
TJ and The Bear (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 3:49 pm
reply ignore user
Um, the supermajority isn't the problem... it's the only thing that's kept Sacramento from destroying California years before now.
TJ,
Don't even try. Blaming the spending excesses on the 35% that refuses to vote for it is so blatantly partisan you'd only get into a political morass trying to talk reason to his type.
One way or the other, on May 20th Californians will have to begin discussing how to fix their broken state.
Cali will be the lead domino in a series of many other broken states as the recession does a double dip.
So what does Obama economic team do now when they already have shot their collective wads on Wall St and Banking Oligarchs with trillions of TARP money.
Wait I get it now Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan to Repay TARP just in time.
Funny, when you see the buy-siders say it's priced in. The natural question is what is priced in. The parabolic increase shows no indication where the top will be so in my simple interpretive mind I look and don't see how anyone could reasonably guess at a stopping point for the chart short of 100% defaults.
the supermajority for the state budget in Cali can only be changed by constitutional ammendment (state). this then goes before the voters in an election. been tried and failed in the past. obviously teevee, money, propaganda and a cali initiative must be seen to be believed. default which resulted in constitutional change might unblock the process. barring the doomster's armageddon, cali can pay off the bonds, but the holders might have to sit on them a little longer. think the state's rating is among the lowest already.
Questions: isn't the present rally due to inflation, money from gov/fed etc? They are trying to bring DOW higher so they can avoid criticism for low 401Ks and bring money into market as they cannot do through wages? Doesn't that mean that there is no down only up from now on?
Granted the money is inflated but what counts for the sheeple is money.
Economists have argued that while the SDR plan is unfeasible now, bilateral deals between Beijing and its trading partners could act as pieces in a jigsaw designed to promote wider international use of the renminbi.
:: ::
Doesn't mean a thing what currency they use for bilateral TRANSACTIONS - never fricking did... it's what they use as reserve currency... and if they run a big dollar surplus do they 'sterilize' it by buying USD denominated assets or do they dump those dollars back on the forex.
If they don't run a net dollar surplus - it's a nothingburger.
If it is a bilateral transaction where dollar reserves go from party A to part B and no net change over all [zero sum] - its a nothingburger.
If they instead of using dollars at all use something else [RMB, Real, whatever] and net dollar reserve balances aren't affected - its a nothingburger.
If they dump their dollar reserves on the forex - then it is a big deal. For Brazil it doesn't matter - they didn't & don't sell us all that much... for China it matters. The day China dumps their USD denominated assets is the day they have to find another buyer of last resort for their export goods. You think Brazil can step up and consume like the US? I don't.
I am not saying the dollar is immune - I'm saying the Chinese can't dump or even depeg from the dollar without losing their biggest customer - us.
[Speed - State layoffs start with the newest employees - the veterans, who do the least amount of work humanly possible, are immune to the axe, and they will be the ones left behind to do the work of 3 employees. Trouble is, they can't muster enough work for 1.]
Fudd,
Congresswoman Lois Capp's district (23rd) is 200 miles long and 10 miles wide. Don't even pretend legislative dysfunction is anything other than deliberate via the party in power.
If private unemployment is 10% then the government jobs should at least match the same rate. In theory sales tax rates should never change as the cost should inflate and deflate at the same rate.
Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 4:15 pm
If private unemployment is 10% then the government jobs should at least match the same rate. In theory sales tax rates should never change as the cost should inflate and deflate at the same rate.
Parts of Cali are over 10% sales tax and income tax is 9.3% over $45k. So totally out of control that they don't even comprehend either the unfairness or damage they cause.
I'm hobbling my way down to the local public school to vote a big fat NO! on all of these proposals. I haven't lived in Cali that long (about 4 years) but the state government and the taxes demanded to support it are utterly insane. Income tax at 10%; sales tax at 10%.
And I quote you regularly, "California doesn't have revenue problem. California has a spending problem".
Now, in your constitutional convention, what happens to Prop 13?
"Parts of Cali are over 10% sales tax and income tax is 9.3% over $45k. So totally out of control that they don't even comprehend either the unfairness or damage they cause."
Don't forget the property tax windfall that they got from the housing bubble. Fine when everyone is making out like bandits at the ROW expense, but when you have to start paying for it yourself... Cute how they fail to include foreclosure sales from property valuations, when foreclosures are >50% of sales.
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Ed S - Why would you oppose Proposition 1F? I thought it says - No pay raises for state legislators in years when there is a state budget deficit. California 2009 ballot propositions - Ballotpedia
Ed S.,
Good on ya. Go my friend. In "my" constitutional convention Prop 13 gets several modifications. Raise the annual increase to 3%-4% but not compounded. Commercial "transfers" establish a new cost basis. Funding is not collectivized and greater local education diversion. I've been thinking bout this for a very long time.
[They are trying to bring DOW higher so they can avoid criticism for low 401Ks and bring money into market as they cannot do through wages? Doesn't that mean that there is no down only up from now on?]
That's the plan. Mostly to prop up pension plans, fixed income, retirement plans... But the minute everyone believes it, that's when the market heads down hard, to sweep all the capital that got pushed back in off the table. Bet on it.
The only trouble with Prop 13 is the inclusion of commercial RE. Carve that out, and it would take care of quite a bit of the budget trouble. Then again, companies would just move to Nevada.
So what happens when these Props fail - I don't mean 'hyperbole' - reality?----------------------------
Dry,
WAG.Then the ball is in the Federal government's court. What will O and Congress do? If they "play hardball" maybe the market won't sell off much. But if they don't and just lend Cali the difference , look out.
Pardon the mixed metaphor. Tanta, would sic the metaphor police on me.
So what happens when these Props fail - I don't mean 'hyperbole' - reality?
Here's my two cents. CA will have to institute draconian cuts to services and benefits. All kinds of bogus taxes and user fees will be implemented too.
Can there be any other outcome? Somebody has to pay for all the foolishness of the past several decades. Just not the banksters or other eCONomic (mis)managers.
i've seen estimates of $10B in revenue (taxes) if marijuana was legalized (nationally, not just ca) and taxed at $50/oz (i believe). lots of speculation involved in the numbers, but when you combine the money saved on enforcement/incarceration, it seems like a no-brainer to me....
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 4:56 pm
So what happens when these Props fail - I don't mean 'hyperbole' - reality?
Here's my two cents. CA will have to institute draconian cuts to services and benefits. All kinds of bogus taxes and user fees will be implemented too.
Can there be any other outcome? Somebody has to pay for all the foolishness of the past several decades. Just not the banksters or other eCONomic (mis)managers.
Small correction. CA will institute punitive cuts but they are not by any stretch necessary. On the second point; the Jarvis Institute remains poised to block any of the more illegal tax and fee schemes.
What I really believer is this: Cali will announce million dollar bonuses for all state employees earning over $150,000 per year. Then, reacting to pressure from Congress, a compromise will be reached. California will lower the bonuses to 950,000 and, in return, the Congress will agree give California the money to balance the budget rather than lend it .
the Jarvis Institute remains poised to block any of the more illegal tax and fee schemes.
Rob Dawg,
My town instituted a $20/kid/sport "field use" fee several years ago. It applies even to pre-schoolers! It's cost me > $500 so far. By the time the littlest Angry is finished high school, I'll be out well over a grand.
riot- the unbeatable high (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 5:03 pm
i've seen estimates of $10B in revenue (taxes) if marijuana was legalized (nationally, not just ca)
I just watched "The Simpson's Movie" again - the script could have been taken right out of the day's news... Tom Hanks saying "This is a government you can trust"... Wahaha we have reached critical mass......
I dropped by Bank of Marin today to discuss moving my biz and personal accounts from BofA. They mentioned the fact that they repaid their TARP (I already knew this), so I asked how they felt their exposure was in the next 2 to 3 years. They mentioned that they didn't do any mortgages and dealt solely in HELOCs, so "they would be fine". I damn near fell out of my chair when I heard this.
Any Bay Aryans out there have any recommendations for good banking institutions?
Brazil and China eye plan to axe dollar
By Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo
Published: May 18 2009 18:24 | Last updated: May 18 2009 23:31
Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar, according to Brazil’s central bank and aides to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president.
The move follows recent Chinese challenges to the status of the dollar as the world’s leading international currency.
Mr Lula da Silva, who is visiting Beijing this week, and Hu Jintao, China’s president, first discussed the idea of replacing the dollar with the renminbi and the real as trade currencies when they met at the G20 summit in London last month.
"Oh, and to all of you rubbing your hands in glee in anticipation of the upcoming fiasco in California, be careful what you wish for. Schadenfreude is poor consolation for the aftershocks of what we are about to witness."
Well, since we are a banana republic now, we could always RIG the referendum... Surely that's possible even in the good ole USS of A!
Even after the props fail, CA is still being led by the dysfunctional government that consists of almost 2/3rds dems who think that there is no problem goverment can't fix and 1/3 republics of the "kill government, not babies" variety. Ahhnold is one of the few who sucessfully straddled the middle for a while, but arrows from both sides have knocked him down. Don't expect anything logical or reasonable to come out of Sacramento.
The best idea I can come up with is that a package of taxes will be created called that "Ronald Reagan Revenue Restoration Act," which will re-impose every tax rate that was higher when Reagan was governor- which I believe is at least a higher car tax and some income tax levels. Dems will go for it, and Republican politicians apparently can't vote no on anything named after Ronald Reagan.
What I really believer is this: Cali will announce million dollar bonuses for all state employees earning over $150,000 per year. Then, reacting to pressure from Congress, a compromise will be reached. California will lower the bonuses to 950,000 and, in return, the Congress will agree give California the money to balance the budget rather than lend it .
:: ::
Maybe the answer is to mandate 'employers' raise wages a bunch [like a super minimum wage] then tax everyone at the max 10% so that the 'increase in tax revenue' will solve the problem. What could possibly go wrong?
Say you have a $20B deficit... and 20MM workers in Cali [don't know either just guessing]... that's just $1000 per worker right? So raise everyone's wages by $10K, tax it at 10% and presto - problem solved!!!
They should have offered that as an alternative proposition - I'd bet it would have passed EASILY - everyone likes a pay increase! After these fail maybe that will be the next prop...
[WARNING WARNING WARNING - Serious Snarkage Overload in Process]
CA tax increases - might as well administer the coup d'etat.... what little business is left in the state will move, along with anyone who has anything - The condors can feast on the remaining carcasses...
"From the article:
Economists have argued that while the SDR plan"
I hear you, man. This will happen in a long series of short steps. USD hegemony will NOT last forever. Mark my words. Odds are good that you and I both will live to see the day that it falls.
Over time, I will educate myself well enough to defend that position even among this crowd.
USD hegemony will NOT last forever... Get into commodities along with the Chinese, now, while they are still cheap... Inflation coming, dollar devaluation...
the details that he tells all American companies that they best not be seen in Vegas...and as NV is hit so hard by real estate and tourism down the Governor asks to meet with him (BO) about the economy in NV while he is attending Reid's million dollar fundraiser in Vegas and BO refuses to meet is astounding, borders on insane or astronomical arrogance. HArry reid will suffer the consequences of that move as the governor only has one vote but the people of NV have millions and he just dissed them...
Here's what bugs me about all the coming benefit and service cuts. Local governments never would have made all these commitments absent the eCONomic lies and bogus growth projections from wall street.
So in the end, wall streeters will have sucked huge fees from bogus investments that were sold based upon lies. Wall street duped the public.
Exactly how were we EVER supposed to deliver 8% to 12% long term returns in a system that grows at 3% real and 6% nominal in the best of times?
Only the best and the brightest bullsh%tters could ever get so much mileage out of such a crock of ........!
And in the "adding insult to injury" category, we are now bailing out the the wall street liars.
again, I think Dawg and his cohort exemplify that the budget problem in cali is political, as in repub-demo or right left. Repubs don't like taxation, so cutting revenue becomes the virtue of attacking overspending. Dems spend on social problems that shore up their base. both over imprison the population and suck up to the guard union. so Dawg: blog in spats and a top hat? can't admit a political war when fighting defense in the trenches? the financial problem of Cali is a result of political impasse between the parties.
....let me tell you how the Med MJ law ACTUALLY works here in NV. Usually a bunch of old guys have these Med MJ cards issued by the State. The users stay high all the time, are routinely carded and sobriety tests are given when in a vehicle or at bars and casinos. Homes are randomly visited by law enforcement to check on maximum allowable pot plants grown on premises (I think it's three). The MJ users' cars are known by the SO, and in our County, they have these photo machines that take pics 360-degrees around their black & white with license numbers. The 'puter checks all the license numbers (23-at a time) and tells the cop who around him "might be suspicious", or has warrants, or has registration/insurance problems. It's Police State Central for pot smokers, friends, and associates. I don't indulge and it's a pain in the ass even for me.
I think it speaks volumes that the states with the highest taxes have the most economic problems right now..... and they arew the model. seems that all the social programs CAfornians like, and want to keep, though they dont want to vote to raise their taxes to support it.... doesnt make any sense , its like they dont realize that if they did end up getting TBTF bailout from the fed they would have to have their taxes raised..... i'm at a loss
Some of these state funding problems are due to problems/delusional thinking in the US Constitution itself. US States are NOT sovereign in any realistic sense of the word. That can't issue money, can't declare war, and are subject to a huge amount of federal law.
companies would just move to Nevada
Here's the BIG problem. States do stupid things with taxes to gain advantage over other states. The corporations arbitrage and extort the states to the advantage of the corps, especially insurance companies (which have no federal regulation at all) and banks (which retreat to the states that will give them the greatest regulatory shelter.
We wouldn't let Canada, Mexico, or Costa Rica play the games at the behest of the corporations. Why play off MS versus CA?
Similarly, the states play off the counties, cities and other state entities against State Taxes. Example: OR has no sales tax, but WA has no income tax, and CA has both. This doesn't make sense. Why should property taxes fund schools, causing huge disparaties in school district spending?
Why should CA pay in far more federal income taxes than it receives back, and AL pay in far less than it receives back?
We should be aiming for tax equalization across the nation, with fair apportionment of the receipts.
Yah, CA spends too much, but if they got back the difference between what the send to Feds and receive back, they'd be in the black instead of the red.
Leftys Liquors Lubricants and Tarp and Bank (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 5:37 pm
reply ignore user
We could open a Leftys for a lot less than a desalination plant. And we have individual personal acounts.
Whiskey's fer drinkin'. Water's fer fightin' over.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 5:44 pm
What's the worst thing that could happen having an arty ex-pat Austrian strongman as a leader?
Last useless comment for awhile. I'd say the night, but I just don't have very good self-control.
So long as you Californians keep making wine, we'll all get along just fine! Meanwhile, we'll be happy to take in your remaining corporate and industrial interests here in Texas.
hopes for him that Rahm is bought and paid for as well...cause rahm's F' em all attitude will get them defeated , Pelosi once thought she was untouchable and excusable..
"Any Bay Aryans out there have any recommendations for good banking institutions? "
I am not in the Bay Area, but use Schwab exclusively for all my finances (banking, trading, IRA, etc), if you want to stick with a local company. They never took TARP funds, and should have a solid financial outlook - I kind of equate them to a gaming machine maker, for the largest casino in the world.
You have to deal with not being able to walk into a branch, but who visits a bank branch these days?
"We could open a Leftys for a lot less than a desalination plant....."
Malta, an arid island, gets something like 60% of its water from desalinization. A forerunner? It's the inland deserts of the future, like Kansas, that might not even be able to desalinate.
I think it speaks volumes that the states with the highest taxes have the most economic problems right now (FD)
cali started the prop tax revolt, don't need to remind anybody about that. check out blogs and see the complaints on NJ and other right coasters about the burden and the annual increase.
don't know how we rank total burden; property, sales, income. Sales tax is near 10% now, though not on food. Income is lower than under "Little Pete" Davis I think, car tax is lower thanks to the terminator, property tax is controlled with wild disparity between neighboring property. Absurd low property tax can be handed down to grandchildren thanks to the tax cut spenders working the initiative democracy.
Rahm made 16 mil in two years working for a hedge fund. He has been pre-bought, and pre-paid for already. Kind of a package. I guress he has great skills.
What is really funny is some state that more Cali taxes will drive business out of state. It will drive it out of the country! The same effect is what Obama is doing deliberately by punishing business with taxes and over regulation. The new Mileage and emissions standards are a pure oxymoron and giving Chrysler to the UAW and Fiat. Car manufacturing will be outsourced! Cost of jobs and more decline in taxes! The new Obama Fiat Uaw Motors! For short Obama's FU motors!
"Bermuda get much of its drinking water from rain collection. They have such tidy roofs there."
I don't know how much the Maltese conserve via rain - I don't believe Malta gets much rain at all for a large part of the year. So far as I remember Malta has no large standing body of water. IIRC there's a not very large lake, and perhaps a few streams. But there have been complex cultures on the island for at least five thousand years, so people have made do with what they have there. We will have to do the same.
Water is obviously going to be the most precious resource of the future. From China to the Middle East the wars of the future, if there are any, will be over water, unless some power generating process becomes so cheap that desalinization becomes affordable.
My thoughts on the "wall" can be summed up this.. I am not enamored by any religion that commands true believers to kill infidels. Christianity went through that phase, Islam is still in that phase.
While I have found a lot of the "chosen people" from israel (but not the US) to be douchebags.. I would take my chance with a douchebag than a murderous fanatic. It helps that I grew up in a country where muslims are a significant minority, but a royal pain in the ass.
......."its like they dont realize that if they did end up getting TBTF bailout from the fed they would have to have their taxes raised....."
....that would require thinking. Many west of here have a tough time with that.
@Black Star Ranch
Give me a break. Nevada is just full of geniuses? The biggest bubble of all is Las Vegas, which is still in Nevada when last I looked. Reno is in the top 10 on the underwater list too. Maybe Battle Mountain is doing ok... is that the point?
The VIX touched 30 today... The cost of protecting a long position is getting lower... The Libor/OIS spread and the TED spread are gradually coming down, getting closer to a normal value... The SP500 price quote is converging with the 50 and 200 day MA's... Since the SP500 did not rally up to the 200 day MA, I lean toward the selloff scenario in spite of the VIX and spreads arguing for more rally... It's very confusing...
watch out lefty, jim from OR will call you a right wing shill...
I reat the times, read Ap and rueters, and last time i checked, Drudge linked to MSM articles, not opinion, unlike Huff, Kos, that old espn hack on msnbc and those on the other side like Hannity, et al.
No i read all sides and try and stay informed....
i guess BO denying the NV governor an audience and him attending HR's fundraiser is all BS...never mind them nothing to read here
"Whiskey's fer drinkin'. Water's fer fightin' over."
California has plenty of water.... along its coast.
It has no need to steal water from land-locked States.
A truly entrepreneurial State would desalinate the Pacific and sell the water to less-fortunate States instead of whining over scraps of muddy Colorado river water.
My guess is we will run out of other critical resources such as oil long before water becomes an issue."
Water is a critical issue now in many parts of the world, in developed, semi-developed and poor countries. It was obvious even 20 years ago that China was going to be in a fix sooner rather than later. But look at Australia facing the bitter truth lately.
The problem with water is quite simple.. we use and store it in an incredibly inefficient manner. It is not how much we require, but how much we waste..
Example- In India, farmers grow rice in areas that are semi-arid, because the government gives them free electricity and subsidized diesel (water pumps), but no support to grow more realistic and equally profitable crops. Heck.. there are water shortages in India in places that receive over 15 feet of rain per year.. Yes, that is not a mistype.
"A truly entrepreneurial State would desalinate the Pacific ..."
Where's the money going to come from for that? It's terribly expensive in power. If we could tame fusion then there might be possibilities on a large enough scale to water California.
I hear you, man. This will happen in a long series of short steps. USD hegemony will NOT last forever. Mark my words. Odds are good that you and I both will live to see the day that it falls.
:: ::
From your keyboard to God's screen.
Seriously - I can hardly wait. All the troubles we now face stem directly from 'dollar hegemony' - financial sector abuse, decline of tradeables industry, deficits, bubbles - all of it.
When it goes it will be painful - we will have to [ready for this?]... :::ACTUALLY WORK:::: ...make things of value that others want, provide services people really need - or go without consuming.
Be a shock - but most of the folks in my world have been there for a long time - won't surprise too many of them.
So when you are making your case to them - understand & help them understand what the consequences are - they aren't terrible, just different.
BTW - we are powerless to support or end dollar hegemony - it is almost entirely in the hands of the PBoC & to a lessor extent the BOJ & OPEC. As long as they want our consumers they will defend dollar hegemony - when they give up on the US consumer the dollar is toast. Focus on that and you will be able to 'explain' what is going on.
and Jim FYI, I have voted more for Democrats than republicans over the years... so i dont have a leaning or a leader...
I do have a brother and for 4 years never found a good thing on Bush the elder, 8 years never found a negative for Bill Clinton, or 8 years a positive thing for Bush, he looks down on all that do not think as he does.
I am not of that camp.... i think for myself and found many things good with the elder, voted against him when he looked me in the eye and said no new taxes and then renigged on that promise so i punished him, voted for Clinton and when he messed up i called him on it when he did well i supported him. Same for Bush the Junior, though i found more wromg with Bush the junior than good, and i was extremely disappointed with the republicans in congress.
I am a federal minimalist and a constitutionalist... but i do think for myself, and on some occasions have been wrong, but on those rare occasions, been man enough to say 'on me, my bad"... dont see that much anymore..
Last night had a robust forum re: AU. All types of comments made for a AU love fest. This morning COMEX dropped a bomb. Kinda makes you wonder who and what the bloggers are. No worries, just a demonstration of sledge hammer power from a sector under threat. Eagles flap and the sparrows scatter.
But AU is still the place to be. In this market, the ascendant are baited traps and the downtrodden the real winners long run. When fundamentals disappear and all normal analysis is defied by market action, it is big player gamesmanship. Market makers defying the invisible hand.
not as expensive as you might think, we do it quite well in Iraq right now, and in the UAE they are doing it though they can afford the expensive method...we also could desal on my vessel back in the day....
"Bushido, Catholicism, Islam, Communism, Nationalism have more in common than many would like to believe."
Whatever functional resemblances there may be are entirely superficial. That said, the Church affirms that all human beings have a share in the truth. What she proclaims is that she possesses the fullness of truth about salvation. There are depths and treasures in other religions. That's not an issue for us, or shouldn't be. After that, the matter becomes too complex and off-topic here.
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 6:44 pm
"Why should CA pay in far more federal income taxes than it receives back, and AL pay in far less than it receives back?"
Because they have less electoral votes per capita. Those low pop state senators have to be compensated somehow to get their votes.
I always thought we got or allocation based in proportion to our delegation's cumulative IQ points.
Reverse osmosis filters.
The power requirement is far less.
Power is less but the RO units are VERY expensive per unit output, have limited operational life and still cost a lot to operate.
They work fine for potable drinking water [if you can tolerate the residual sodium] but will never be a cure for Cali's desert conditions if people intend to continue to water laws, fill outdoor pools, bathe etc.
BTW - I know folks who make industrial RO columns for exactly these kinds of uses - it is too capital intensive and not thermodynamically favorable to desalinate a lot of water. Small amounts in remote unpopulated areas [like a big money eco-tourist stop on a Pacific atoll/reef] but not for mass urban uses.
Because they have less electoral votes per capita. Those low pop state senators have to be compensated somehow to get their votes.
Yup - presidential politics too - electoral college votes. Bush showed you can win without either Cali or NY... but then you better clean up in flyover... how better to do that than to make sure those folks get lotsa pork.
"What does SO stand for?"..........Sheriff's Office
I don't mean to dis the State of California - it's a beautiful state. The government though pretty much sucks, and it will be interesting to see what transpires after tomorrow. They will require Fed help even if all the Props passed - which they won't. The State Legislature hasn't seen a spending bill it didn't like for 30-years - nothing will change other than a flush of the economic toilet.
"Surged" is a positive word, right?
Is this one of the green shoots?
You ain't seen nothin' yet ...
CR, you really need to start including the second derivatives of all of the indicators you chart.
I am SHOCKED!!!!
Nothing to see here - move along
awgee, Probably not a "green shoot" but definitely showing strong growth!
best wishes
""Surged" is a positive word, right?"
Yes. Anytime something goes up it is good.
awgee --
CR used green for consumer credit cards, and it is definitely shooting.
"Just more evidence of severe credit problems at the commercial banks."
Don't worry. We have P-L-E-N-T-Y of liquidity to take care of that.
I prefer cliff hiking.
CRE tops out at ...
16
18
20
more? %
"Surged", as in past tense. How quaint.
"Iceberg has passed leaving only glancing damage."
Arbit & Juvvie were Bama???
Who said? Posts don't feel the same, have the same style.
Not to worry ...
Third half recovery ...
Rob Dawg, I suspect the rates are still surging - but we won't have Q2 data until August.
book1, I like cliff hiking too. And I'm looking forward to a little climbing / hiking this summer.
best to all.
This will make the 80s look like crying over spilt milk
not that bad. not that severe. ppl sometimes dont work.. so they're late on payments. so what? theyll get another job sometime and pay it back. you can believe that.obama will never let it get that bad. he worked in the projects in chicago... he knows terrible times. trust is what we need right now. no more hating america.
This was priced in back in 1998.
It's a weird yin/yang with the credit card companies~
They are obviously on the verge of being unprofitable, just as the prez is breathing down their necks trying to get interest rates down.
Something's gotta give...
Would it be meaningful to also plot U-6 unemployment on this graph?
Federal tax receipts cliff diving is a green shoot?
Here’s what’s going on:
In 2007 and 2008, government tax revenues averaged about $633.15 billion per quarter. For the first quarter of 2009, however, the numbers just in tell us that tax receipts totaled only about $442.39 billion -- a decline of 30%.
Looking to confirm the trend, we compared the data for April – the big kahuna of tax collection months – to the 2007-2008 average, and found that individual income taxes this year were down more than 40%. The situation is even worse for corporate income taxes, which were down a stunning 67%!
Zero Hedge: Guest Post: Tax Revenues Tanking
Story of the day. Mtg not in foreclosure. Person only 40-50k (!) underwater.
Property not in her name, just hub's and it is homestead. Needs a probate proceeding, since hub is dead.
Why bother I say? You didn't sign the note and thus aren't liable. Oh, it's cheaper than rent. I think it's actually that she lived there with him and doesn't want to leave.
Under Fla homestead, she gets a life estate, and his kid gets a remainder interest. Need a deed from kid.
Liz,
The bit about US/Mexico border compared to the Berlin Wall didn't convince you?
Who's Bama?
it seems after reading the NYT story that paying your mortgage is now optional (and with no HELOC for consolidation one can not pay the credit card as well)
Oh sh*T! And, then there is reality:
FT.com / Americas - Brazil and China eye plan to axe dollar
Oh, well, what do ya need taxes for, you can always just print, takeaname.
lol
Where is today's BABD rhetoric? That GLD/T-Bill strategy played out so well today... Funny how some posters are mysteriously absent when their investment strategies blow up spectacularly.
Take a name asswipe
Excellent post ...
.
.
Where's my Maalox ?
Would seem like a return to debtor prisons would get the deadbeats in line.
I guess I missed it; I was working and driving.
RockyR, now you have me singing "Bye, bye, Ms. American Pie, drove the Chevy to the levy but the levy was dry...singin' this'll be the day that I die...
creditcriminalslovetarp: .lesson of day...when wild animal chews on scalp push it off head fast....
There is a credit-card ocelot in the economy's future.
Well Chase cutting the benifits from their most popular credit card offered, the Chase Freedom Card
Customers are getting an envelope titled, "Good Things are Coming from Chase Freedom" and subtitled "ENCLOSED: News about improvements to your account."
Highlights of these improvements:
The triple cash back rewards you earn on Everyday spending categories will no longer be available.
The $50 bonus when redeeming $200 in Cash Back Rewards will no longer be available after June 30th.
A $30 annual fee after the first year instead of the previous no annual fee
Attention! Chase Rewards credit card holder - SlickDeals.net Forums
creditcriminal, great pics. My Mom always wanted an ocelot, they are just gorgeous.
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 9:30 pm
Oh, well, what do ya need taxes for, you can always just print, takeaname.
Taxes are so last century, like production.
CalculatedRisk (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 2:25 pm
Rob Dawg, I suspect the rates are still surging - but we won't have Q2 data until August.
You are probably right. At this point it doesn't matter. Even a miraculous reversal still leave DQ rates dangerously high.
book1, I like cliff hiking too. And I'm looking forward to a little climbing / hiking this summer.
Always remember, if you need a place to stay in Wrightwood I'll tell you where the house key is hidden. Me, I may take a few small hikes in the Presidential Range and Shawangunks next month.
"Taxes are so last century, like production."
~~~~
another classic ....
I think the kitty is a pet. A wild Ocelot would, I think leave you in the hospital. Also, I think It will get bigger, they are bigger than the housepet variety.
What a beautiful animal.
A big feral alley cat is a dangerous animal even, if well fed.
Maybe kitty was abandoned to the jungle when the house was foreclosed. . .
Fix a problem and up pops another or wack a mole.
Wow trying to weave and spin Disaster Capitalism is hard work
CR readers/posters like me have a hard time following these real time complex event processing events.
imagine JCP ?
Obama says just give the ball to me because I know how to run the fast break and JCP just wants to see the highlight reel
That ocelot would eat my peach eating squirrels!
charge off rate for consumer credit cards from 6.33% to 7.49%.
BBAD's stick it to the man
Am Ex cuts 4000 jobs
AMF = Juvenal for sure
comrade Kristina,
The claws had some teeth to them..It made some nice puncture wounds in leg on climb up...but once in a lifetime thing so I just went with it....tell mom to declaw if she gets one..
Girlfriend- didnt like is so much when it tried to jump on her....
back to subject at hand....sorry to go ot....
Liz, I believe they get to around 35 lbs or so. I also think it is no longer legal to purchase them. Mom has since passed so no threat of her getting one but I did know someone that had one and they are incredible creatures.
Just a reminder...
Get rid of your airline/credit card points asap. They earn no interest, and companies are going bk fairly quick now.
In the 2009 Amex rewards catalog a number of companies you could redeem points with, are no longer with us.
I dunno, I looked at those chartlines going straight up and I thought, "Come to Jesus." It's the Rapture for delinquency rates.
It climbed up you? The thing is not only tame, it is a kitten.
I've had kittens do that. I was painful enough with a bitty kitten.
It let you hold its paw and the claws are retracted. A pet.
hey dc1000,
welcome back. Didn't know what happened to you, glad you landed a good job.
lawyer liz,
trust me I was in deep jungle...it could have been fed by other hikers or farmers nearby....didnt have time to stage it...was using a tree for some water retention relief when it appeared..
I kept eye out of mother...
OT: Post office cuts 25,000
How is unpossible, what with grade inflation and all...
I think it climbed up you 'cause it was scared of something.
Wild felines just do not do this. I don't doubt you were in deep jungle; I think someone abandoned it.
from take a name a**wipe...
In 2007 and 2008, government tax revenues averaged about $633.15 billion per quarter. For the first quarter of 2009, however, the numbers just in tell us that tax receipts totaled only about $442.39 billion -- a decline of 30%.
Looking to confirm the trend, we compared the data for April – the big kahuna of tax collection months – to the 2007-2008 average, and found that individual income taxes this year were down more than 40%. The situation is even worse for corporate income taxes, which were down a stunning 67%!
This should be totally joyous news for Libertarians and Neocons, shouldn't it? A decline in payments has to work the same as a tax cut, doesn't it? Since 'deficits don't matter,' as I believe Richard B. Chaney once said, this is a nice giant cut in taxes paid! Should get the economy going in no time!
a Brazillian wearing a yellow polka dot Renmimbi has my dollar pegged to a loonie
Rising delinquencies = additional government bailouts.
Rally on!
The "surge" worked in Iraq, it should work for delinquency rates, too. If we surge up the defaults, it will scare the economy back into steady growth.
Remember back in the day when the slimiest business person was a car salesman?
They seem pretty benign, in comparison to the Jackals of all trades on Wall*Street.
lawyer liz,
jesus...it sunk claws into my leg that left blood all the way down from hamstring to boot...life is pain...once in a lifetime thing...maybe it just caught on to my primevel love for pussies....
thank god for pictures...
back to topic...
unless we get credit or debt jubilee, no way we are close to bottom....avg fica score is still following a CR chart to hell....
What if they gave a tax and everybody just didn't pay it??
when is Calidoomsday? Wednesday?
Maybe there'll be a big quake and voting will be cancelled for a while.
Is it just me ...
or is this the worst news Monday in a couple of months ?
This news by itself should worth at least +250 on the DOW tomorrow
I'm certain this was all figured into the stress tests.
How could you tell mmckini?
7% is the new 2% 9% will be the new 1%.
lliz-last thought...I'm 6'2" 225 with a big head so it's bigger than it looks...now if that head had some brains....
aclem: This should be totally joyous news for Libertarians and Neocons,
Libertarians and Neocons are mortal enemies.
Make no mistake. Tomorrow after the polls close in California the State and Federal governments will be holding either a joint or coordinated series of news conferences. This is Leader O's own "this sucker's going down" moment.
"However, Potter stressed that the main problem is the weak economy and the post office is ''anxiously awaiting a turnaround.''
....they'll be waiting a long time for that "turn-around". Kinda like the Pony Express waiting for the those last pieces of mail after the telegraph.
I just found out from 2 personnels from the trade desk that they actually go to CR frequently...
People, it might help to put "/sarcasm" whenever you mention something like "stocks going to the moon," because some traders actually believe them.
lawyerliz
healthcare sellout
loan delinquency parabolic
tax receipt toilet drop
~~~
I'm sure I missed something important
But they can share some good news, right?
Hungry. Off for dinner.
...and railroad.
@Comrade Kristina
OT but you may find this of interest:
The Twin Deficits & Savings (afraid the graphs sort of got cut up a bit in it, but if you read the same peice on the full Zacks blog they show up ok)
Dawg,
Any predictions on what they'll say?
its the cali guv that will be holding the joint
Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) is attracting a lot of attention for his proposal to audit the Federal Reserve bank, the independent financial powerhouse that creates and regulates our money. In other words, as he wrote in Forbes recently, Paul is 'Fed up' with the complete lack of transparency.
From Dr. Paul's op-ed:
The Federal Reserve's recent and unprecedented actions in the realm of monetary policy have provoked a backlash among the American people. Trillions of dollars worth of loans and guarantees have been provided to Wall Street firms, while Main Street Americans suffocate under harsh taxation, the prospect of higher debt levels and increasing inflation. These events have awakened many Americans to problems with the Fed's loose monetary policy, the bubbles it has created in the past and the potential hyperinflation it might cause in the future.
One of the fallacies of modern economics is the idea that a central bank is required in order to keep inflation low and promote economic growth. In reality, it is the central bank's monetary policy that causes inflation and depresses economic growth. Inflation is an increase in the supply of money, which in our day and age is directly caused or initiated by central banks. All other things being equal, inflation results in a rise in prices. A so-called "mild" rate of inflation of 3% per year leads to a 56% rise in prices over a 15-year period. Even a "low" rate of inflation of 2% per year leads to a 35% rise over that same period. How is that conducive to long-term growth?
A common misconception is that the Fed is completely independent of political pressures. While the Fed has far too much authority to make agreements with foreign governments and central banks, or create temporary liquidity facilities, the governors and--more important--the chairman, are appointed by the president.
Gee wonder if this also had something to do with Ron Paul being Fed up
The Federal Reserve Can Not Account For $9 Trillion In Off-Balance Sheet Transactions
Zero Hedge: The Federal Reserve Can Not Account For $9 Trillion In Off-Balance Sheet Transactions
Apparently nobody at the Federal Reserve has any clue where the trillions of dollars that have come from the Fed's expanded balance sheet have gone. Additionally, nobody there seems to have any idea what the losses on the Fed's $2 trillion portfolio really are. As for the pittance of $9 trillion in Fed off-balance sheet transactions over the past 8 months, well, yeah, that's also somewhere out there... Just don't ask the Federal Reserve where.
California exit poll says "This sucker is going down"
"This news by itself should worth at least +250 on the DOW tomorrow"
Good if so, the better for getting out.
Dawg, how certain is it that the ballot initiatives won't pass?? Have you seen any recent polls?
Remember back in the day when the slimiest business person was a car salesman?
Nothing some rebranding couldn't cure.
"Every market is different. Call your local USED CAR SALESMAN®."
nice try, Rob Dawg,
According to his book, the last time he held a joint was in college. As for Bill Clinton, he used it, but never inhaled it!
Oh great ... how could I forget ...
there's the Cali catastrophe on tap ...
~~~~
newer graves have green shoots ...
TJ and The Bear (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 2:53 pm
reply ignore user
Dawg,
Any predictions on what they'll say?
Bridge bonds guaranteed by the full faith and credit.
IMO, absent will be any form of guarantee of existing debt. Despite this Cal munis etc. will surge and then the unintended consequence shows up. Most Cali munis are far worse off than they admit and an opportunity to float at low rates will cause a flood to market.
Kallyforniyans,
Ze propozals zey did not pass go and ve didn't collect $20 Billion, zo ve have ze elektion again next veek, ok?
Paul's bill, H.R. 1207, has 165 co-sponsors. Its fate is currently in the hands of the House Financial Services Committee's 71 members. Almost all the committee's Republicans have co-sponsored the bill and two Democrats have joined their numbers.
special attention should be paid to the very sharp rise in credit card delinquencies
Gavshire Hathaway (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 2:57 pm
reply ignore user
Dawg, how certain is it that the ballot initiatives won't pass?? Have you seen any recent polls?
Props 1A-1E will all go down with 53-62% no. Prop 1F, with no effect, will pass 74%.
The Obama Dems are now in collusion with too big too fail banks so I expect no movement or else their financial ponzi scheme becomes transparent
"Surgecharge"
Fun Times Calendar:
May 19: Cali budget proposals (~15B deficit or ~20B deficit)
June 1: GM BK
Now - Dec 2010 - OptionARM, Alt-A defaults
There may be fun times (C) not on the calendar.
aclem: This should be totally joyous news for Libertarians and Neocons,
(not one cent) Libertarians and Neocons are mortal enemies.
aClem again: Yes, on many points. but neither believes they should pay taxes. And most self admitted Libertarians I know vote Republican when the chips are down. If you are not one of those, I salute you.
creditcriminalslovetarp, Neat ocelot pictures
Comrade Coinz, re: USPS, push comes to shove comes to injury
O/T: this summer is going to be wacky. Everyone trying to get RE sales cleared while there is volume. Higher education enrolment, possibly spitting out more people than they take in which is the reverse of most recessions. Governments that only have enough funds available to maintain cash flow through to autumn. Unemployment under strain as there are more workers available in summer and the automaker shutdowns/layoffs (when's Ford going to announce some dealer closures, surely they'll be given a free pass around state law to delay bankruptcy). All the goods producers' margin of safety will be running low after 6-9 months on contingency fund subsistence. Knock on effects of unemployment + high philly fed index + low labor mobility. Money creation will be ramped up, possibly $2 borrowed/printed for every $1 collected, with budgets as is (no FDIC actually using a $500bn line of credit, no bailing out of states, and other expected unprepared financial disasters).
It's like we've all seen a trailer for a horror movie, we have a pretty good idea of the plot. But it won't have any effect until we step into the theatre this fall and feel the hair on our neck rise.
or perhaps it is like students who have a group project due in 4 months. They meet up once or twice a week and make progress, but 95% of the work will be done in the last 4 days. Everyone knows it will happen, and then it does.
Piloting this lead zeppelin by Debt Reckoning isn't so easy.
"Props 1A-1E will all go down with 53-62% no. Prop 1F, with no effect, will pass 74%. "
Everything I have heard supports what you said, a lot of anger out there with voters in CA.
The trees -
Props 1A-1E ...
the forest -
even if passed still 15 billion in the hole
state tax collections still dropping ...
ghost,
The props had upwards of $24 million backing them (with strong union support) and less than $2 mil against, with ballot wording that is misleading at best. Sacramento really tried to pull a fast one, and they're losing their butts on this one.
CA state employee complacence will be shaken tomorrow
"very sharp rise in credit card delinquencies"
......old stuff......find new one to drag down the market......simply too weak.......
If they are going to release criminals in Calif. they might as well release Charlie Manson too. He's old and never convicted of actually DOING violence. I was born and raised in Calif. and loved what it used to be. I sold out near the top when the McMansions invaded and moved to Latin America. I am surprised how Howard Jarvis' name never gets mentioned here. From my eyes that was where it all started. Oh, and we shouldn't forget 3 strikes your out. Oh, and term limits. And the entire initiative process. This is a good movie to watch on DVD. I don't want to sit in the theater when all hell breaks loose.
mmckinl,
As usual, the pols are not figuring on diminishing returns either, so the 15 number was a fantasy too.
Thanks for the info RD! Perhaps there is a tiny semblance of sanity in the world? If they do fail, does Obama have any choice besides stepping in and guaranteeing a bunch of Cali bonds? Its a good thing our national balance sheet is unconstrained, otherwise these state revenue shortfalls would be a real bummer, man.
Cali is the super bowl of stupid in government spending. They simply have to lay of tons of people, cut programs and go back to providing basic services that tax collection can support. Cut pension into 401k's or they will be just like GM legacy cost and ultimate BK. The wheels are shaking and starting to fall off and not a bit of reality seen yet.
There's a shatlode of prisons in Cali, but not one desalination plant is in operation anywhere in the state, on the verge of a major drought.
Gives you an idea of where their priorities were...
Juvenal Delinquent
This sucker is going down like a lead zeppelin. To mix quotes.
Oh, and to all of you rubbing your hands in glee in anticipation of the upcoming fiasco in California, be careful what you wish for. Schadenfreude is poor consolation for the aftershocks of what we are about to witness.
TJ and The Bear
AIG gets 150 billion ...
what do they tell citizens of Cali when they deny them ?
they vote ...
Gavshire Hathaway (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 3:20 pm
Thanks for the info RD! Perhaps there is a tiny semblance of sanity in the world? If they do fail, does Obama have any choice besides stepping in and guaranteeing a bunch of Cali bonds? Its a good thing our national balance sheet is unconstrained, otherwise these state revenue shortfalls would be a real bummer, man.
Disclaimer, it isn't "info." I do have some access but I cannot provide anything other than opinion for another 30 hours.
When they fail (presumably) then the Feds have no choice but to step in. The helping hands will come with some interesting handcuffs. Think about MediCal vs Medicare for but one instance.
Mish estimates Cali is bleeding about $2B/month. Even after a summer of carnage, the bleeding may not be stopped.
The state has already said it will seize millions in county and local government taxes to try to plug the hole. That will shift some of the layoffs to front line fire and police, saving some Sacramento politburo jobs.
When is peak wildfire season? That has been a significant cost in recent years, correct?
The Summer of Push Meets Shove
EHP,
I think Fall is the peak fire season. All the dried shrubs and green shoots from the summer make perfect fuel for wildfires and arson fires. When combined with a strong Santa Ana wind, you get devastation.
continuing the Cali train of thought,
What might the fallout of a default look like? I assume there will not be much love lost, but if Cali defaulted presumably rates other states are paying would rise and expedite budgetary emergencies, which might cause significant shock
What might be the fallout of a Federal rescue of Cali look like? Relatively low cost up front, but everyone wants as much or more than anyone else in the soup kitchen line
Trifecta when CRE defaults break the record. The other 2 already broke the prior record & in uncharted territory heading to the moon so the recession is clearly over.
"When is peak wildfire season? That has been a significant cost in recent years, correct?"
It used to be in the fall, but not anymore...
8,000 dry lightning strikes all over the northern part of the state caused fires in the summer last year, and last week's fire in SB was way too early.
The big question with fires is water. You have to use freshwater for the most part, so it's a Faustian Bargain...
Do you save houses by drenching water on them, or just let em' burn?
I hope they don't have to make this awful decision, should it come to that...
Cali is a sovereign state. There are BK laws for cities, but I don't know if there are any U.S. laws to handle a state default.
The IMF has rules to handle sovereign defaults, but I don't think they would apply to Cali.
Maybe someone here knows how it would be handled legally. Liz?
aClem, I doubt there is much enjoyment in seeing California's predicament. But just as a drug addict needs some rehab to help kick that habit, California and this nation needs rehab.
Good site for descriptions of all the CA initiatives:
California 2009 ballot propositions - Ballotpedia
Comrade Coinz
No recourse other than vendettas by creditors
EHP - Don't know if you saw it, but I corroborated the Globe and Mail article about American students in Canadian schools (went to McGill)
Comment by alybaba from thread 'FASB Rule Change for Qualifying Special Purpose Entities'
EHP,
No recourse? So, the state courts can just say, too bad, we'll pay you 50 cents on the dollar, now go away?
I think the credit markets would have something to say about future Cali bonds in that case (as you said).
what do they tell citizens of Cali when they deny them ?
They're not denying the citizens; hell, it's the citizens that are denying Sacramento.
In extremely broad brush strokes the California default and reorganization will involve a Federally guided Constitutional Convention with a carrot of Federal recapitalization in a TARP like bailout and some assumption of obligations and some long overdue renumerations. Depending on the participants the Convention will have lots of unintended consequences. Near all bad. IMO anyone ever holding elective office above alderman or holding credit for more than two semesters of law school should be prohibited from participating.
"Cali is the super bowl of stupid in government spending. They simply have to lay of tons of people, cut programs and go back to providing basic services that tax collection can support. Cut pension into 401k's or they will be just like GM legacy cost and ultimate BK. The wheels are shaking and starting to fall off and not a bit of reality seen yet."
That does not sound hopeful for keeping housing prices up. Did Cali not get the "go shopping" (preferably for banks stocks) message?
the main cali problem is the political process--supermajority required to pass state budget. currently the republicans block and the democrats cannot impose budget. been going on for years, major structural deficit during the good times, going sour fast in the bad. property tax limitation made a lot of city and county spending dependent upon the state tax power.
if auto's are off 30% what does that do to your sales tax revenue? clusterfuck
only one or two other states require a supermajority to pass the state budget.
Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 3:42 pm
I think the credit markets would have something to say about future Cali bonds in that case (as you said).
This is part of why I keep saying Mr. Bond is clearing his throat.
If Cali is "allowed" to renege on the explicit terms the rest of the muni market panics. The camel must not be allowed to put his nose in the tent.
[No recourse? So, the state courts can just say, too bad, we'll pay you 50 cents on the dollar, now go away?]
Where do they get the 50 cents from? Borrow it so the new lender gets the "fify-cen" deal in another year ?
Um, the supermajority isn't the problem... it's the only thing that's kept Sacramento from destroying California years before now.
State layoffs start with the newest employees - the veterans, who do the least amount of work humanly possible, are immune to the axe, and they will be the ones left behind to do the work of 3 employees. Trouble is, they can't muster enough work for 1.
Another inverted pyramid.
A wild Ocelot would, I think leave you in the hospital.
An angry tabby can do this too.
I have the scars...
TJ and The Bear (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 3:49 pm
reply ignore user
Um, the supermajority isn't the problem... it's the only thing that's kept Sacramento from destroying California years before now.
TJ,
Don't even try. Blaming the spending excesses on the 35% that refuses to vote for it is so blatantly partisan you'd only get into a political morass trying to talk reason to his type.
[fractional dupe post deleted]
The ungovernable state | The Economist
Premium content | Economist.com
One way or the other, on May 20th Californians will have to begin discussing how to fix their broken state.
Cali will be the lead domino in a series of many other broken states as the recession does a double dip.
So what does Obama economic team do now when they already have shot their collective wads on Wall St and Banking Oligarchs with trillions of TARP money.
Wait I get it now Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan to Repay TARP just in time.
Disaster capitalism at its finest
My favs
"Lagging indicator."
"Priced in."
Funny, when you see the buy-siders say it's priced in. The natural question is what is priced in. The parabolic increase shows no indication where the top will be so in my simple interpretive mind I look and don't see how anyone could reasonably guess at a stopping point for the chart short of 100% defaults.
the supermajority for the state budget in Cali can only be changed by constitutional ammendment (state). this then goes before the voters in an election. been tried and failed in the past. obviously teevee, money, propaganda and a cali initiative must be seen to be believed. default which resulted in constitutional change might unblock the process. barring the doomster's armageddon, cali can pay off the bonds, but the holders might have to sit on them a little longer. think the state's rating is among the lowest already.
State Budget Troubles Worsen
Recession Continues to Batter State Budgets; State Responses Could Slow Recovery — Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
see TABLE 2:
STATES WITH PROJECTED FY2010 BUDGET GAPS
Bet total now closer to $250 Billion
So what does Obama economic team do now ???
Juvenal Delinquent,
ridiculous, i agree.
you can't water your lawn unless it's on the right day at the right time, but build a desalination plant? crazy talk!
TJ and The Bear,
you are so right! the spending would have been unimaginable w/o the 2/3 requirement. if they ever undo that....
Questions: isn't the present rally due to inflation, money from gov/fed etc? They are trying to bring DOW higher so they can avoid criticism for low 401Ks and bring money into market as they cannot do through wages? Doesn't that mean that there is no down only up from now on?
Granted the money is inflated but what counts for the sheeple is money.
Ponzifornia already taxes more than most other states. How does more taxes fix a spending problem?
Oh sh*T! And, then there is reality:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/996b1af8-43ce-11de-a9be-00144feabdc0.html
:: ::
From the article:
Economists have argued that while the SDR plan is unfeasible now, bilateral deals between Beijing and its trading partners could act as pieces in a jigsaw designed to promote wider international use of the renminbi.
:: ::
Doesn't mean a thing what currency they use for bilateral TRANSACTIONS - never fricking did... it's what they use as reserve currency... and if they run a big dollar surplus do they 'sterilize' it by buying USD denominated assets or do they dump those dollars back on the forex.
If they don't run a net dollar surplus - it's a nothingburger.
If it is a bilateral transaction where dollar reserves go from party A to part B and no net change over all [zero sum] - its a nothingburger.
If they instead of using dollars at all use something else [RMB, Real, whatever] and net dollar reserve balances aren't affected - its a nothingburger.
If they dump their dollar reserves on the forex - then it is a big deal. For Brazil it doesn't matter - they didn't & don't sell us all that much... for China it matters. The day China dumps their USD denominated assets is the day they have to find another buyer of last resort for their export goods. You think Brazil can step up and consume like the US? I don't.
I am not saying the dollar is immune - I'm saying the Chinese can't dump or even depeg from the dollar without losing their biggest customer - us.
[Speed - State layoffs start with the newest employees - the veterans, who do the least amount of work humanly possible, are immune to the axe, and they will be the ones left behind to do the work of 3 employees. Trouble is, they can't muster enough work for 1.]
That pretty much nails it.
km4,
wow, that is a great/scary link....
Fudd,
Congresswoman Lois Capp's district (23rd) is 200 miles long and 10 miles wide. Don't even pretend legislative dysfunction is anything other than deliberate via the party in power.
"Taxes are so last century, like production."
~~~~
another classic ....
That really was good.
If private unemployment is 10% then the government jobs should at least match the same rate. In theory sales tax rates should never change as the cost should inflate and deflate at the same rate.
Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 4:15 pm
If private unemployment is 10% then the government jobs should at least match the same rate. In theory sales tax rates should never change as the cost should inflate and deflate at the same rate.
Parts of Cali are over 10% sales tax and income tax is 9.3% over $45k. So totally out of control that they don't even comprehend either the unfairness or damage they cause.
Dawg,
I'm hobbling my way down to the local public school to vote a big fat NO! on all of these proposals. I haven't lived in Cali that long (about 4 years) but the state government and the taxes demanded to support it are utterly insane. Income tax at 10%; sales tax at 10%.
And I quote you regularly, "California doesn't have revenue problem. California has a spending problem".
Now, in your constitutional convention, what happens to Prop 13?
cheers
If private unemployment is 10% then the government jobs should at least match the same rate.
Damned good point
"Parts of Cali are over 10% sales tax and income tax is 9.3% over $45k. So totally out of control that they don't even comprehend either the unfairness or damage they cause."
Don't forget the property tax windfall that they got from the housing bubble. Fine when everyone is making out like bandits at the ROW expense, but when you have to start paying for it yourself... Cute how they fail to include foreclosure sales from property valuations, when foreclosures are >50% of sales.
Supreme Court action upholds medical marijuana law Raw Story » Supreme Court action upholds medical marijuana law
Perhaps Cali should legalize marijuana and collect hundreds of millions or billions in taxes
Country Joe and the Fish Rock and Soul Music Woodstock 1969
YouTube
- Country Joe and the Fish Rock and Soul Music Woodstock 1969
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oh, PE based on operating earnings, why didn't you say so, ON YOUR WEB PAGE NEXT TO THE DATA!
P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
still haven't gotten more than robo-response from Boomturd
Ed S - Why would you oppose Proposition 1F? I thought it says - No pay raises for state legislators in years when there is a state budget deficit.
California 2009 ballot propositions - Ballotpedia
Ed S.,
Good on ya. Go my friend. In "my" constitutional convention Prop 13 gets several modifications. Raise the annual increase to 3%-4% but not compounded. Commercial "transfers" establish a new cost basis. Funding is not collectivized and greater local education diversion. I've been thinking bout this for a very long time.
maybe i should offer them some of THIS
James Candy Company manufacturers of salt water taffy and other boardwalk candy-James' 1 lb Box Chocolate Sealed Taffy
[They are trying to bring DOW higher so they can avoid criticism for low 401Ks and bring money into market as they cannot do through wages? Doesn't that mean that there is no down only up from now on?]
That's the plan. Mostly to prop up pension plans, fixed income, retirement plans... But the minute everyone believes it, that's when the market heads down hard, to sweep all the capital that got pushed back in off the table. Bet on it.
dfwmix,
Have been focused only on tax increases (1A, 1B. etc) -- ok you convinced me. I'll go with a "yes" on 1F.
Dawg,
Your Prop 13 proposals sound reasonable, particularly on CRE.
notice how they say they were using "operating earnings PE" for JUST the SP 500.
they do not indicate that they are aware that this is, ahem, misleading. more so since they do it selectively without mentioning it.
So what happens when these Props fail - I don't mean 'hyperbole' - reality?
Anyone?
CA had better do a quick state tax on wealth before Obama Ben and Timmay get to it.
"Mostly to prop up pension plans, fixed income, retiremant plans... "
Don't forget life insurance companies, many of which are highly levered to stock market levels.
Don't lie to Otis Hertz, Data Enforcer.
@ dryfly So what happens when these Props fail - I don't mean 'hyperbole' - reality?
Anyone.....anyone...Bueller???
Dryfly I think we're into uncharted waters....
in this hand i have some taffy, in the other hand i have a mace.
you choose.
The only trouble with Prop 13 is the inclusion of commercial RE. Carve that out, and it would take care of quite a bit of the budget trouble. Then again, companies would just move to Nevada.
according of the economist article, the largest revenue increasing proposition they have at ballot is one to borrow against future lottery proceeds.
ayy-yi-yi-yi
The majority will not get a bailout. Just the opposite, the majority will have to pay for the bailouts of the financial industry.
Somehow, I don't think CA will ever CONstitute systemic risk in the eyes of the fed.
Municipal cuts are coming to a hood near you. And it ain't just CA.
Rob Dawg,
Don't you mean CONstitutional CONvention. You'll be selling yourselves to the bankers for at least a generation.
I just read an article about mostly smaller police departments closing up shop, all over the country.
In the past, a veiled threat was good enough to get the hoi ploy to cough up the do re mi to pay for the coppers, but this is no drill...
So what happens when these Props fail - I don't mean 'hyperbole' - reality?----------------------------
Dry,
WAG.Then the ball is in the Federal government's court. What will O and Congress do? If they "play hardball" maybe the market won't sell off much. But if they don't and just lend Cali the difference , look out.
Pardon the mixed metaphor. Tanta, would sic the metaphor police on me.
So what happens when these Props fail - I don't mean 'hyperbole' - reality?
Here's my two cents. CA will have to institute draconian cuts to services and benefits. All kinds of bogus taxes and user fees will be implemented too.
Can there be any other outcome? Somebody has to pay for all the foolishness of the past several decades. Just not the banksters or other eCONomic (mis)managers.
km4,
i've seen estimates of $10B in revenue (taxes) if marijuana was legalized (nationally, not just ca) and taxed at $50/oz (i believe). lots of speculation involved in the numbers, but when you combine the money saved on enforcement/incarceration, it seems like a no-brainer to me....
Negatory RD. The judges run the state and will do a Chavez thingie. What part of "We dictate and you obey and pay don't you understand"!
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 4:56 pm
So what happens when these Props fail - I don't mean 'hyperbole' - reality?
Here's my two cents. CA will have to institute draconian cuts to services and benefits. All kinds of bogus taxes and user fees will be implemented too.
Can there be any other outcome? Somebody has to pay for all the foolishness of the past several decades. Just not the banksters or other eCONomic (mis)managers.
Small correction. CA will institute punitive cuts but they are not by any stretch necessary. On the second point; the Jarvis Institute remains poised to block any of the more illegal tax and fee schemes.
LMRiM?
Dry,
What I really believer is this: Cali will announce million dollar bonuses for all state employees earning over $150,000 per year. Then, reacting to pressure from Congress, a compromise will be reached. California will lower the bonuses to 950,000 and, in return, the Congress will agree give California the money to balance the budget rather than lend it .
the Jarvis Institute remains poised to block any of the more illegal tax and fee schemes.
Rob Dawg,
My town instituted a $20/kid/sport "field use" fee several years ago. It applies even to pre-schoolers! It's cost me > $500 so far. By the time the littlest Angry is finished high school, I'll be out well over a grand.
Only wall street can get blood from a stone.
"lots of speculation involved in the numbers, but when you combine the money saved on enforcement/incarceration, it seems like a no-brainer to me...."
Plus the elimination of a primary source of revenue for the traffickers, would greatly impact their business.
riot- the unbeatable high (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 5:03 pm
i've seen estimates of $10B in revenue (taxes) if marijuana was legalized (nationally, not just ca)
Wow... well then Light Up Or Leave Me Alone ( Traffic )
YouTube - Traffic - Light Up Or Leave Me Alone
Angry Saver:
There's no recession in recess, apparently...
I just watched "The Simpson's Movie" again - the script could have been taken right out of the day's news... Tom Hanks saying "This is a government you can trust"... Wahaha we have reached critical mass......
I dropped by Bank of Marin today to discuss moving my biz and personal accounts from BofA. They mentioned the fact that they repaid their TARP (I already knew this), so I asked how they felt their exposure was in the next 2 to 3 years. They mentioned that they didn't do any mortgages and dealt solely in HELOCs, so "they would be fine". I damn near fell out of my chair when I heard this.
Any Bay Aryans out there have any recommendations for good banking institutions?
I use the ING internet only checking, and Vanguard for everything else....
FT.com / Americas - Brazil and China eye plan to axe dollar
Brazil and China eye plan to axe dollar
By Jonathan Wheatley in São Paulo
Published: May 18 2009 18:24 | Last updated: May 18 2009 23:31
Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar, according to Brazil’s central bank and aides to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president.
The move follows recent Chinese challenges to the status of the dollar as the world’s leading international currency.
Mr Lula da Silva, who is visiting Beijing this week, and Hu Jintao, China’s president, first discussed the idea of replacing the dollar with the renminbi and the real as trade currencies when they met at the G20 summit in London last month.
"Oh, and to all of you rubbing your hands in glee in anticipation of the upcoming fiasco in California, be careful what you wish for. Schadenfreude is poor consolation for the aftershocks of what we are about to witness."
Well, since we are a banana republic now, we could always RIG the referendum... Surely that's possible even in the good ole USS of A!
Marinfidels!
Even after the props fail, CA is still being led by the dysfunctional government that consists of almost 2/3rds dems who think that there is no problem goverment can't fix and 1/3 republics of the "kill government, not babies" variety. Ahhnold is one of the few who sucessfully straddled the middle for a while, but arrows from both sides have knocked him down. Don't expect anything logical or reasonable to come out of Sacramento.
The best idea I can come up with is that a package of taxes will be created called that "Ronald Reagan Revenue Restoration Act," which will re-impose every tax rate that was higher when Reagan was governor- which I believe is at least a higher car tax and some income tax levels. Dems will go for it, and Republican politicians apparently can't vote no on anything named after Ronald Reagan.
What I really believer is this: Cali will announce million dollar bonuses for all state employees earning over $150,000 per year. Then, reacting to pressure from Congress, a compromise will be reached. California will lower the bonuses to 950,000 and, in return, the Congress will agree give California the money to balance the budget rather than lend it .
:: ::
Maybe the answer is to mandate 'employers' raise wages a bunch [like a super minimum wage] then tax everyone at the max 10% so that the 'increase in tax revenue' will solve the problem. What could possibly go wrong?
Say you have a $20B deficit... and 20MM workers in Cali [don't know either just guessing]... that's just $1000 per worker right? So raise everyone's wages by $10K, tax it at 10% and presto - problem solved!!!
They should have offered that as an alternative proposition - I'd bet it would have passed EASILY - everyone likes a pay increase! After these fail maybe that will be the next prop...
[WARNING WARNING WARNING - Serious Snarkage Overload in Process]
Blowback by Chalmers Johnson
His chilling conclusion--backed by copious and livid detail--is that a nation reaps precisely what it sows.
In other words we don't need no stinkin FED and American Banking Oligarchs
Obama are you listening ?
CA tax increases - might as well administer the coup d'etat.... what little business is left in the state will move, along with anyone who has anything - The condors can feast on the remaining carcasses...
" Then again, companies would just move to Nevada."
Would?
@drfly
"From the article:
Economists have argued that while the SDR plan"
I hear you, man. This will happen in a long series of short steps. USD hegemony will NOT last forever. Mark my words. Odds are good that you and I both will live to see the day that it falls.
Over time, I will educate myself well enough to defend that position even among this crowd.
USD hegemony will NOT last forever... Get into commodities along with the Chinese, now, while they are still cheap... Inflation coming, dollar devaluation...
"So what happens when these Props fail - I don't mean 'hyperbole' - reality?
Anyone?"
CARP
California's Asset Recovery Program
km4,
I think he is not listening..
the details that he tells all American companies that they best not be seen in Vegas...and as NV is hit so hard by real estate and tourism down the Governor asks to meet with him (BO) about the economy in NV while he is attending Reid's million dollar fundraiser in Vegas and BO refuses to meet is astounding, borders on insane or astronomical arrogance. HArry reid will suffer the consequences of that move as the governor only has one vote but the people of NV have millions and he just dissed them...
Here's what bugs me about all the coming benefit and service cuts. Local governments never would have made all these commitments absent the eCONomic lies and bogus growth projections from wall street.
So in the end, wall streeters will have sucked huge fees from bogus investments that were sold based upon lies. Wall street duped the public.
Exactly how were we EVER supposed to deliver 8% to 12% long term returns in a system that grows at 3% real and 6% nominal in the best of times?
Only the best and the brightest bullsh%tters could ever get so much mileage out of such a crock of ........!
And in the "adding insult to injury" category, we are now bailing out the the wall street liars.
What a sham!
again, I think Dawg and his cohort exemplify that the budget problem in cali is political, as in repub-demo or right left. Repubs don't like taxation, so cutting revenue becomes the virtue of attacking overspending. Dems spend on social problems that shore up their base. both over imprison the population and suck up to the guard union. so Dawg: blog in spats and a top hat? can't admit a political war when fighting defense in the trenches? the financial problem of Cali is a result of political impasse between the parties.
....let me tell you how the Med MJ law ACTUALLY works here in NV. Usually a bunch of old guys have these Med MJ cards issued by the State. The users stay high all the time, are routinely carded and sobriety tests are given when in a vehicle or at bars and casinos. Homes are randomly visited by law enforcement to check on maximum allowable pot plants grown on premises (I think it's three). The MJ users' cars are known by the SO, and in our County, they have these photo machines that take pics 360-degrees around their black & white with license numbers. The 'puter checks all the license numbers (23-at a time) and tells the cop who around him "might be suspicious", or has warrants, or has registration/insurance problems. It's Police State Central for pot smokers, friends, and associates. I don't indulge and it's a pain in the ass even for me.
We could open a Leftys for a lot less than a desalination plant. And we have individual personal acounts.
elmer fudd,
I think it speaks volumes that the states with the highest taxes have the most economic problems right now..... and they arew the model. seems that all the social programs CAfornians like, and want to keep, though they dont want to vote to raise their taxes to support it.... doesnt make any sense , its like they dont realize that if they did end up getting TBTF bailout from the fed they would have to have their taxes raised..... i'm at a loss
Fiduciary Doodie (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 5:32 pm
km4, I think he is not listening..
Yes I agree Obama's actions speak way louder than his flowery rhetoric.
He does not 'get it' or is just another bought and paid for tool of the financial elites.
"Any Bay Aryans out there have any recommendations for good banking institutions?"
Try New Resource Bank. They're a new south of Market "green" bank.
http://www.newresourcebank.com/index.php
......."its like they dont realize that if they did end up getting TBTF bailout from the fed they would have to have their taxes raised....."
....that would require thinking. Many west of here have a tough time with that.
What's the worst thing that could happen having an arty ex-pat Austrian strongman as a leader?
Some of these state funding problems are due to problems/delusional thinking in the US Constitution itself. US States are NOT sovereign in any realistic sense of the word. That can't issue money, can't declare war, and are subject to a huge amount of federal law.
companies would just move to Nevada
Here's the BIG problem. States do stupid things with taxes to gain advantage over other states. The corporations arbitrage and extort the states to the advantage of the corps, especially insurance companies (which have no federal regulation at all) and banks (which retreat to the states that will give them the greatest regulatory shelter.
We wouldn't let Canada, Mexico, or Costa Rica play the games at the behest of the corporations. Why play off MS versus CA?
Similarly, the states play off the counties, cities and other state entities against State Taxes. Example: OR has no sales tax, but WA has no income tax, and CA has both. This doesn't make sense. Why should property taxes fund schools, causing huge disparaties in school district spending?
Why should CA pay in far more federal income taxes than it receives back, and AL pay in far less than it receives back?
We should be aiming for tax equalization across the nation, with fair apportionment of the receipts.
Yah, CA spends too much, but if they got back the difference between what the send to Feds and receive back, they'd be in the black instead of the red.
Leftys Liquors Lubricants and Tarp and Bank (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 5:37 pm
reply ignore user
We could open a Leftys for a lot less than a desalination plant. And we have individual personal acounts.
Whiskey's fer drinkin'. Water's fer fightin' over.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 5:44 pm
What's the worst thing that could happen having an arty ex-pat Austrian strongman as a leader?
I'm afraid we're about to find out Morocco.
Juvenal Delinquent, you're a treasure. Keep it up.
"...known by the SO..."
What does SO stand for?
Last useless comment for awhile. I'd say the night, but I just don't have very good self-control.
So long as you Californians keep making wine, we'll all get along just fine! Meanwhile, we'll be happy to take in your remaining corporate and industrial interests here in Texas.
hopes for him that Rahm is bought and paid for as well...cause rahm's F' em all attitude will get them defeated , Pelosi once thought she was untouchable and excusable..
"Any Bay Aryans out there have any recommendations for good banking institutions? "
I am not in the Bay Area, but use Schwab exclusively for all my finances (banking, trading, IRA, etc), if you want to stick with a local company. They never took TARP funds, and should have a solid financial outlook - I kind of equate them to a gaming machine maker, for the largest casino in the world.
You have to deal with not being able to walk into a branch, but who visits a bank branch these days?
RD,
You were close with your guess of Morocco, and Adolf did own it for a spell...
In the finest traditions of the American West...
"We could open a Leftys for a lot less than a desalination plant....."
Malta, an arid island, gets something like 60% of its water from desalinization. A forerunner? It's the inland deserts of the future, like Kansas, that might not even be able to desalinate.
Fiduciary Doodie: do you go to Rush, Drudge and Faux News 3 times a day or 4 for refreshing your wingnut memes?
Or all three? (Neopolitan Wingut!)
Your harp is broken, guy. The sounds are not music.
No way Juvenal is Morocco. Arbitrage, yeah.
Why did you change your name, anyway? I like your jokes.
"USD hegemony will NOT last forever... "
Just ask the Brits, only 50 years ago the pound was the reserve currency. I am not sure what makes us think we are so special that our day won't come.
Pavel,
Bermuda get much of its drinking water from rain collection. They have such tidy roofs there.
Our other choices were not much better.
//What's the worst thing that could happen having an arty ex-pat Austrian strongman as a leader?//
"Why did you change your name, anyway? I like your jokes"
I was getting quite a few anti-Gypsyism and anti-Jehovah Witnessism complaints...
hey juve, dont take it bad
take a long word and make it pithy-y-y
Remember the dystopian future.
then you can mark a pound a dollar.....
lenin esq squire
I think it speaks volumes that the states with the highest taxes have the most economic problems right now (FD)
cali started the prop tax revolt, don't need to remind anybody about that. check out blogs and see the complaints on NJ and other right coasters about the burden and the annual increase.
don't know how we rank total burden; property, sales, income. Sales tax is near 10% now, though not on food. Income is lower than under "Little Pete" Davis I think, car tax is lower thanks to the terminator, property tax is controlled with wild disparity between neighboring property. Absurd low property tax can be handed down to grandchildren thanks to the tax cut spenders working the initiative democracy.
lots o'politics under the bridge.
Rahm made 16 mil in two years working for a hedge fund. He has been pre-bought, and pre-paid for already. Kind of a package. I guress he has great skills.
What is really funny is some state that more Cali taxes will drive business out of state. It will drive it out of the country! The same effect is what Obama is doing deliberately by punishing business with taxes and over regulation. The new Mileage and emissions standards are a pure oxymoron and giving Chrysler to the UAW and Fiat. Car manufacturing will be outsourced! Cost of jobs and more decline in taxes! The new Obama Fiat Uaw Motors! For short Obama's FU motors!
"Bermuda get much of its drinking water from rain collection. They have such tidy roofs there."
I don't know how much the Maltese conserve via rain - I don't believe Malta gets much rain at all for a large part of the year. So far as I remember Malta has no large standing body of water. IIRC there's a not very large lake, and perhaps a few streams. But there have been complex cultures on the island for at least five thousand years, so people have made do with what they have there. We will have to do the same.
Water is obviously going to be the most precious resource of the future. From China to the Middle East the wars of the future, if there are any, will be over water, unless some power generating process becomes so cheap that desalinization becomes affordable.
Juvenal Delinquent,
My thoughts on the "wall" can be summed up this.. I am not enamored by any religion that commands true believers to kill infidels. Christianity went through that phase, Islam is still in that phase.
While I have found a lot of the "chosen people" from israel (but not the US) to be douchebags.. I would take my chance with a douchebag than a murderous fanatic. It helps that I grew up in a country where muslims are a significant minority, but a royal pain in the ass.
......."its like they dont realize that if they did end up getting TBTF bailout from the fed they would have to have their taxes raised....."
....that would require thinking. Many west of here have a tough time with that.
@Black Star Ranch
Give me a break. Nevada is just full of geniuses? The biggest bubble of all is Las Vegas, which is still in Nevada when last I looked. Reno is in the top 10 on the underwater list too. Maybe Battle Mountain is doing ok... is that the point?
...........Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions rather than the US dollar..........
FT.com / Americas - Brazil and China eye plan to axe dollar
...........a century's opportunity get back hegemony from west , china use it wisely and very well........
You need to hook up Marquis Desal plants to nukes...
There are about 30 of them operating in Saudi Arabia as I type.
"I am not enamored by any religion that commands true believers to kill infidels."
As for Christianity, Kamikaze:
pavel.libsyn.com
The VIX touched 30 today... The cost of protecting a long position is getting lower... The Libor/OIS spread and the TED spread are gradually coming down, getting closer to a normal value... The SP500 price quote is converging with the 50 and 200 day MA's... Since the SP500 did not rally up to the 200 day MA, I lean toward the selloff scenario in spite of the VIX and spreads arguing for more rally... It's very confusing...
Pavel,
My guess is we will run out of other critical resources such as oil long before water becomes an issue.
watch out lefty, jim from OR will call you a right wing shill...
I reat the times, read Ap and rueters, and last time i checked, Drudge linked to MSM articles, not opinion, unlike Huff, Kos, that old espn hack on msnbc and those on the other side like Hannity, et al.
No i read all sides and try and stay informed....
i guess BO denying the NV governor an audience and him attending HR's fundraiser is all BS...never mind them nothing to read here
put me on your ignore list
"Whiskey's fer drinkin'. Water's fer fightin' over."
California has plenty of water.... along its coast.
It has no need to steal water from land-locked States.
A truly entrepreneurial State would desalinate the Pacific and sell the water to less-fortunate States instead of whining over scraps of muddy Colorado river water.
Angry Saver,
When did we run out of wood? or stones? We just have to develop and commercialize other technologies.
lobbyist Ben Dover,
Same warning, jim from OR doesnt appreciate negative discorse especially if true,....
"Pavel,
My guess is we will run out of other critical resources such as oil long before water becomes an issue."
Water is a critical issue now in many parts of the world, in developed, semi-developed and poor countries. It was obvious even 20 years ago that China was going to be in a fix sooner rather than later. But look at Australia facing the bitter truth lately.
pavel.chichikov,
Bushido, Catholicism, Islam, Communism, Nationalism have more in common than many would like to believe.
Shadow - hear you, all very Dr Strangelong, or how I stopped worrying and learned to love the bond.
C
pavel.chichikov,
Spend too much time at the oildrum?
The problem with water is quite simple.. we use and store it in an incredibly inefficient manner. It is not how much we require, but how much we waste..
Example- In India, farmers grow rice in areas that are semi-arid, because the government gives them free electricity and subsidized diesel (water pumps), but no support to grow more realistic and equally profitable crops. Heck.. there are water shortages in India in places that receive over 15 feet of rain per year.. Yes, that is not a mistype.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 9:06 pm
pavel,
Thanks for the link; I've bookmarked it so I can listen to more poetry.
You have a gift.
"A truly entrepreneurial State would desalinate the Pacific ..."
Where's the money going to come from for that? It's terribly expensive in power. If we could tame fusion then there might be possibilities on a large enough scale to water California.
I hear you, man. This will happen in a long series of short steps. USD hegemony will NOT last forever. Mark my words. Odds are good that you and I both will live to see the day that it falls.
:: ::
From your keyboard to God's screen.
Seriously - I can hardly wait. All the troubles we now face stem directly from 'dollar hegemony' - financial sector abuse, decline of tradeables industry, deficits, bubbles - all of it.
When it goes it will be painful - we will have to [ready for this?]... :::ACTUALLY WORK:::: ...make things of value that others want, provide services people really need - or go without consuming.
Be a shock - but most of the folks in my world have been there for a long time - won't surprise too many of them.
So when you are making your case to them - understand & help them understand what the consequences are - they aren't terrible, just different.
BTW - we are powerless to support or end dollar hegemony - it is almost entirely in the hands of the PBoC & to a lessor extent the BOJ & OPEC. As long as they want our consumers they will defend dollar hegemony - when they give up on the US consumer the dollar is toast. Focus on that and you will be able to 'explain' what is going on.
and Jim FYI, I have voted more for Democrats than republicans over the years... so i dont have a leaning or a leader...
I do have a brother and for 4 years never found a good thing on Bush the elder, 8 years never found a negative for Bill Clinton, or 8 years a positive thing for Bush, he looks down on all that do not think as he does.
I am not of that camp.... i think for myself and found many things good with the elder, voted against him when he looked me in the eye and said no new taxes and then renigged on that promise so i punished him, voted for Clinton and when he messed up i called him on it when he did well i supported him. Same for Bush the Junior, though i found more wromg with Bush the junior than good, and i was extremely disappointed with the republicans in congress.
I am a federal minimalist and a constitutionalist... but i do think for myself, and on some occasions have been wrong, but on those rare occasions, been man enough to say 'on me, my bad"... dont see that much anymore..
Last night had a robust forum re: AU. All types of comments made for a AU love fest. This morning COMEX dropped a bomb. Kinda makes you wonder who and what the bloggers are. No worries, just a demonstration of sledge hammer power from a sector under threat. Eagles flap and the sparrows scatter.
But AU is still the place to be. In this market, the ascendant are baited traps and the downtrodden the real winners long run. When fundamentals disappear and all normal analysis is defied by market action, it is big player gamesmanship. Market makers defying the invisible hand.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/ShHgsNrUUCI/AAAAAAAAJGU/VumuLlMPZ-Y/s1600-h/Midas0518A.gif
"pavel,
Thanks for the link; I've bookmarked it so I can listen to more poetry.
You have a gift. "
Bless you, Samdog.
pavel,
not as expensive as you might think, we do it quite well in Iraq right now, and in the UAE they are doing it though they can afford the expensive method...we also could desal on my vessel back in the day....
Porcupine Joke: I just flew back from the Bilderberg conference and my arms are really tired.
noah cant conjure up enough water for the mustard seeds in California?
what news form the front?
US futures are in flyover land.....flat.
Mrs. Watanabe seems pleased though.
seems the hive may be on the move.....new thread good sir.
I lean toward the selloff scenario in spite of the VIX and spreads arguing for more rally... It's very confusing...
If this rally has much more leg, Ben might have to bend the short end, too.
Pavel,
an old article on investing in Desal companies from seeking alpha
Desalination Companies: Invest in the Future -- Seeking Alpha
and a cool New Mexico project until this most water cost 3-4 dollars per 1000 gallons
Researchers develop low-cost, low-energy desalination process
It's Police State Central for pot smokers, friends, and associates. I don't indulge and it's a pain in the ass even for me.
Given all that maybe it is time you did - then at least you'd be stoned and wouldn't care.
"Bushido, Catholicism, Islam, Communism, Nationalism have more in common than many would like to believe."
Whatever functional resemblances there may be are entirely superficial. That said, the Church affirms that all human beings have a share in the truth. What she proclaims is that she possesses the fullness of truth about salvation. There are depths and treasures in other religions. That's not an issue for us, or shouldn't be. After that, the matter becomes too complex and off-topic here.
" It's terribly expensive in power"
Reverse osmosis filters.
The power requirement is far less.
Surely the super brainiac high-tech region around that really expensive area (well, used to be expensive) can figure all that out?
BTW Pavel,
let me know when you are in the southern DC MD suburbs and i will show you my brackish water reverse osmosis unit....
"Pavel,
an old article on investing in Desal companies from seeking alpha..."
Thanks Fiduciary. I'm not an engineer so I have a lot to learn on the subject.
"BTW Pavel,
let me know when you are in the southern DC MD suburbs and i will show you my brackish water reverse osmosis unit...."
Sounds fascinating. Will do.
"Why should CA pay in far more federal income taxes than it receives back, and AL pay in far less than it receives back?"
Because they have less electoral votes per capita. Those low pop state senators have to be compensated somehow to get their votes.
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/18/2009 - 6:44 pm
"Why should CA pay in far more federal income taxes than it receives back, and AL pay in far less than it receives back?"
Because they have less electoral votes per capita. Those low pop state senators have to be compensated somehow to get their votes.
I always thought we got or allocation based in proportion to our delegation's cumulative IQ points.
Reverse osmosis filters.
The power requirement is far less.
Power is less but the RO units are VERY expensive per unit output, have limited operational life and still cost a lot to operate.
They work fine for potable drinking water [if you can tolerate the residual sodium] but will never be a cure for Cali's desert conditions if people intend to continue to water laws, fill outdoor pools, bathe etc.
BTW - I know folks who make industrial RO columns for exactly these kinds of uses - it is too capital intensive and not thermodynamically favorable to desalinate a lot of water. Small amounts in remote unpopulated areas [like a big money eco-tourist stop on a Pacific atoll/reef] but not for mass urban uses.
Because they have less electoral votes per capita. Those low pop state senators have to be compensated somehow to get their votes.
Yup - presidential politics too - electoral college votes. Bush showed you can win without either Cali or NY... but then you better clean up in flyover... how better to do that than to make sure those folks get lotsa pork.
"What does SO stand for?"..........Sheriff's Office
I don't mean to dis the State of California - it's a beautiful state. The government though pretty much sucks, and it will be interesting to see what transpires after tomorrow. They will require Fed help even if all the Props passed - which they won't. The State Legislature hasn't seen a spending bill it didn't like for 30-years - nothing will change other than a flush of the economic toilet.