Residential Investment Components
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 05/15/2009 - 3:52pm (330 comments)
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Nemo?
2th
Talked to a drone at work today. Buying a 250K crap condo in the OC. I asked FHA?, she said yup. She was worried about stretching it financially, but I told her if it doesn't work out, she can stay free for a year. She said she's heard that advice already.
FHA losses will make Fannie/Freddie look like pocket change.
Why buy when you can rent from the bank?
JBR?
Usually I wait for the bank failures to put up another post, but I'm tired of waiting - and I think this is interesting.
best to all
JIm Cramer is on the records as saying home improvement is the place to invest since all the purchased foreclosures will need work. He said this is going to be a strong employment driver in the IE.
I am amazed he does not realize how many appliances are listed for sale on craigs list. He might want to consider that before he invests in HD.
small typo - think you meant 0.8% not 0.08% but who knows, maybe we are headed for 0.08% (it would solve some problems - probably create a few others though!)
FHA losses will make Fannie/Freddie look like pocket change.
I'm gonna change my name to "Federal Dawg" so that all my numerous shortcomings can be socialized.
OT: middle aged taking it on the chin.
OFF THE CHARTS; Not a Good Time To Be Middle-Aged - NY Times
I'm hungry for a bank and it's getting late. I might have to go to bed hungry.
"This would seem to suggest there remains significant downside risk to home improvement spending."
Short Lowe's or Home Depot. Which is a better short?
I think you mean RI is 0.8% of GDP, not 0.08%. At least, that's what the graph indicates.
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 5:00 pm reply Ignore user
"This would seem to suggest there remains significant downside risk to home improvement spending."
Short Lowe's or Home Depot. Which is a better short?
Slap a "Federal" in front of the name and screw the shorts. There aren't any honest investments anymore.
"Too quiet"
Cut the bleeding heart crap, Geithner, we've all got our own doomed and insolvent banks to deal with. I've got some right here on my desk. And they're doomed, and insolvent, and doomed, and insolvent.. and don't call me Shirley! It's Sheila.
Anecdotally, I've noticed an uptick in the traffic at the HD and Lowes I visit in Cali. This is off extreme lows over the last year. They've cut staffing to such low levels that there are long lines at checkout.
The "much nicer staff" phenomena at HD remains intact, although the younger staff can't seem to make a greeting without an ironic tone.
BFFB
Bank Failure Freeday Beer
FDIC is buying rounds.
Hmmm, I always wonder about spatial differentiation when I see charts like this, and nature of HI spend. For instance, how to account for housing stock that was formerly deemed uninhabitable, but is now tricked up for bare-minimum human habitation, or repair to long-unoccupied foreclosures?
C
why rent when you can squat!
NJRenter (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 4:58 pm
JIm Cramer is on the records as saying home improvement is the place to invest since all the purchased foreclosures will need work. He said this is going to be a strong employment driver in the IE.
I am amazed he does not realize how many appliances are listed for sale on craigs list. He might want to consider that before he invests in HD.
Cramer? What an idiot. I used to furnish appliances for all my IE rental properties with yard sale items. NJRenter, you are absolutely correct. There is at least as much oversupply of accoutrements as there are house shaped containers.
"Usually I wait for the bank failures to put up another post, but I'm tired of waiting"
Well, thank God for that! 'Cuz, you know. . . you really don't put up enough posts as it is...
--
"This would seem to suggest there remains significant downside risk to home improvement spending."
You bet, CR. "There remains significant downside risk" to 70-80% of the US economy because we are still in the bottom of the first inning of the Greater Depression.
Jas
montas ankle, thanks - fixed. Ahhh 0.08% would be end of all builders!
Tim waiting for 2012, when I first mentioned home improvement would get crushed, HD was in the 40s, and LOW in the mid-30s. That was the time to make a move (I didn't short because I don't invest in any stocks I mention). I did buy HD in 2003 and sold it in 2004 - but it didn't do was well as some of the builders I owned.
best to all
JBR, yeah, some days I go crazy ... sorry about that!
best wishes
Hurrah. A Jas post without the D word.
Ectually, I'm seeing more traffic in the local HD, and the last time around people who couldn't or wouldn't buy did spruce up their houses.
--
"when I first mentioned home improvement would get crushed..."
Vow! You are a genius, CR. But, with all your fantastic claims about calling CRE bust and all you didn't think that we would have a severe recession, let alone a depression.
Being consistent is not your strong suit, is it? That is left to us "broken records."
Jas
Don't apologize CR, that's what I love about this place - just the right pace for posts and commenting.
There was an announcement of a $100 million dollar gift to Habitat for Humanity (though the gift is an estate gift; it will occur when the person dies.)
Now I have given money to Habitat for Humanity before but since the housing bubble, I've been thinking the last thing we need is more people building houses even if they are giving them away to deserving people. I would probably be more supportive of Habitat for Humanity if they talked banks into donating trashed foreclosed houses, used volunteer labor and donated supplies to fix them up and then sell/give them to deserving people.
What do you mean, us? Who do you include with yourself?
Good idea, Raj. I think they do this sometimes.
I wonder how the Habitat for Humanity default rate is doing. Yes, the houses have mortgages.
The buyers put in some sweat equity. That prolly counts for something.
--
CR: "yeah, some days I go crazy..."
If you stop making forecasts and claiming how great you have been with your early warnings and stick to reporting the economic data you wouldn't go crazy. People have a problem with not knowing what they are good at and what they are not. Doing too much leads to dopey behavior, in general.
Jas
HfH require the people who buy the houses to actually work at building them so there is more commitment than the average home owner. Their default rate is relatively low (and the interest rates are below market.)
"I would probably be more supportive of Habitat for Humanity if they talked banks into donating trashed foreclosed houses, used volunteer labor and donated supplies to fix them up and then sell/give them to deserving people."
I suspect they would do that if the banks were willing to be realistic about the values of the houses they hold in foreclosure. More likely, Habitat can build them for less than the banks can afford to sell them.
Ahhhh, Jas couldn't resist the d word.
CR goes crazy with the numerousness of his posts, not the erroneousness of same.
Yeah, knowing Geithner, it was probably counted as part of TCE.
--
Rajesh: "...banks into donating trashed foreclosed houses, used volunteer labor and donated supplies to fix them up and then sell/give them to deserving people."
You show complete ignorance of the Crooks that run the banks and the US econo-political system. They would rather demolish brand new homes than give them to the needy.
BTW, I donated to HH in early 1990s, but haven't followed up on what they are really doing.
Jas
Jas while I appreciate your constructive comments about the economy and investing, I find your arrogance and rudeness with regards to CR simply astound me.
Crisis over! ALl the banks are now solvent. No need to shut any down, no matter what their capital position.
What was the Stress test CC delinquency max point ? Did we pass it yet ?
All the CC companies are fine too.
To the moon, Alice, to the moon. I have a feeling they are gathering their breath, girding their loins, ordering the pizza--- for BankU.
I asked a while ago but do not remember seeing an answer:
How is home-improvement spending calculated?
If it counts contractor income, a significant portion is a lagging indicator of work done 1 month to 1 year ago.
Jas, how's you portfolio holding up ? Those Treasurys are reserved for B&B Indian Dopes!
Not many contractors got paid much in the past year.
Jas, For a long time now, I've resisted saying anything that might upset you, but those days are over.
I don't know where you learned your goddamned manners, but CR is the host here, and a damned kind and tolerant one at that. And, he shares his expertise.
Guys like you have the luxury of being able to predict the second coming of Christ and patiently wait for it, convinced of your righteousness.
There are some of us who have to work in real time, and must make decisions based on incomplete--and sometimes false--information.
I come here because I'm looking for an edge and because there are a few people here, though I sometimes disagree with them, know what they're talking about.
So, if you haven't got any analysis to add, or facts to offer, or even kind things to say....
STFU
Thank you.
Watch out Jas, he'll sic Conjure on you!!!
While we are waiting for BFF. Lets browse what FDIC has for sale. A few nice SFRs some with 0 value.
THIS
Jas, the Last Troll.
Ummm, I checked the site so as to stop twitting you know who, and it came up with
an error message--no properties. Or, was that the point?
the jasquantbot should be happy with the Mishistan call for a flattening yield curve on an Octobermelt.
jas isnt a bad guy. I come in here hungry and cant even get a BKUNA burger. best settle in for a cold sip of
I wondered whether CR invested in any of the stocks he mentioned - glad to know that he does not.
now if we could only get the chair of the NY fed board to do the same
or SEC lawyers for that matter
mp, +100... And my OT comment... I have discovered that the "Ignore user" function has elevated the quality of discourse (that I can see) to a much higher level.
There are only 2-3 people on my list, but it sure makes a big difference.
mp
+1
No BKUNABURGER at least for another week, I understand.
What is going on people of CR? I've not been as able to read the last few weeks but it seems a lot of the old crew are back. As in the crew from way back.
What import should I take from that, or not?
Something is happening, I'm sure of that. Both here and in the grand scheme of things.
There is much too much weirdness in all facets of my daily interactions with people and corporations.
Anyone else get that feeling?
Bank holiday?
There may be some more home improvement as people realize that they're going to be in the house for years.
lawyerliz, are you talking about clicking on the ignore user button on hoocoodanode? If so, can you try it again, and tell me exactly what the error message said?
I thought CR was American. Does Geithner know that CR is somehow avoiding investing in Fannie, etc. like the rest of us are forced to do?
Just thinking about the ROI on home improvements must make people absolutely giddy! Heck, let's make a tv show.
I think the old crew checked in from time to time, and realized that the new posting system is great so they don't have to tear their heirs out to post.
Maxed out Momma even posted.
I mean Barley's FDIC site.
Jas are you and the marine tying one on tonight?
Interesting. Can't say I've seen MP go off before. Looks pretty laser-guided to me.
C
btw kcoop - I love this! Thx.
Aint been here so often as of late...
fyi and off topic - on an annualized basis Russia is tracking for a -23% GDP for 2009
Many thanks, MP.
There may be some more home improvement as people realize that they're going to be in the house for years. reptillian
yea but these wont be HELOC (the shit out of the equity) improvements...
with in your means is the new black... (i hope)
I want some CSC and surfing condition news, darnit.
If he's lurking, one of if not my all-time fave comments from CSC: "Tanta, I dirty the water for thee."
+Truth
ignore Jas seems like a link waiting to happen
Ah.
Now why did I jump to the conclusion that someone was using the ignore button?
The only big weirdness lately I've noticed is the extraordinary number of damageless fenderbenders me and the hub have received and dished out. People are not paying attention.
'course I spend my working hours in the Home of Weirdness, to wit, South Florida, so I am de-sensitized to weird.
...I am moving almost no retirees from SoCal..a few, who are fed up with taxes have moved...an Executive at Pacific Sales,the high end appliace store, says they are experiencing an upsurge in business as retirees in The OC are staying put and putting money into their paid for homes...if you drive through areas of Huntington Beach and Fountain Valley, where many Boeing employees work, you may see a huge remodel, a decrepit foreclosure and a run down rental side by side...
same here LL, but if you click the "properties for sale" link, and then submit the form it works.
try this FDIC Real Estate for Sale
So I am looking at the Fitch Ratings Action spreadsheet, and to get the dollar amount (at par anyways) involved, what does it take to track down, looking up the CUSIP for each bit?
Not that it matters since all this crap got sold to the Fed at par...
would you expect anything less?
I can't bear to use the ignore button, even for Jas. I am too nosey to want to miss anything or anyone.
But I can see why you thought that.
Is there a way to eliminate the word "dope". All other words including profanity and obscenity are ok, but we could lose the word dope. Except for names, I guess.
so they don't have to tear their heirs out to post.
No, I just beat my children when I have to post
they don't have to tear their heirs out to post.
Was that intentional?
A toast to mp! Macanudos and a single malt scotch for the house - Lefty, you around?
Of course it was.
Anecdote from work. Heard scuttlebutt of a number of folks looking at buying. Very large military employer in Ventura County (seems like they moved some of the cars recently). Everyone trying to move to Camarillo. All of them complaining that everything is getting 10+ offers. Some of them bidding on the same places. Guess it must be different here...
Its like people believe buying a house is the only way to make money in the long run...
Child beating is very satisfying.
Nothing can get under your skin, like your own blood.
LL but I like dope. Actually just got back from the backwoods for Cali. Huge dope growing operations. A totally mind opening trip. The whole 'village' was off the grid and a lot grew grass for income. Totally natural and socially acceptable. Prices are coming down, way to much supply and growers are holding on to two years ago prices... Sticky pot prices.... hoocoodanode..... LOL!
energycon...not to correct you but..
"all this crap got sold to the Fed at par" where GS acted as the conduit
I thought Weirdness lived in California; maybe he has a second home in South Florida.
I forgot that kind of dope!!!!
LawyerLiz, I look on from afar at SoFla, every day and many different, shall we say, perspectives (cough-newsoutlets-cough).
I understand you are on an island; that is a good bet.
I personally would not want to be anywhere near MIAmetro this summer or the following, say, year or two.
Urban warfare isn't altogether indescriptive and also perhaps a bit on the hyperbolic side, but...
Major portions of the city are going to be no-go zones if at all avoidable. That's my bet.
Its like people believe buying a house is the only way to make money in the long run...
I think what I've learned over the last 10 years is the only way to make money in the long run is to steal it, defraud other people of it, or run a bank (same as options 1 and 2).
I will match our weird for Cali's weird anytime.
Our weird is inexpensive weird. We will be weirding out long after Cali goes bk.
....there are two rcently purchased foreclosures in my neighborhood ....30 year old, 2500 sq foot homes in North OC selling for $600-$800K ...both homes are making extensive repairs....I think one family is going to live in their home as they are investing in landscaping...the other is employing several "off the book" type contractors to work on the inside of a rundown house.....
I think the older neighborhoods like mine will generate repair expenses when they sell....the big question is: Will The people in Ladera and Talega, also pull out their appliances when they vacate in t6he next few years? or will they leave their upgrades behind?????
Prices are coming down, way to much supply
Nades contact the Tres. maybe they have a purchase program to smooth out the pricing
"Guess it must be different here..."
Anecdotally, same here in LA, at least on the low (relatively, i.e. jumbo conforming or less) end, high end is still dead. I think a lot of people think the bottom is in. This will not end well....
LOL! Kind of a micro-finance pot holding company!
I've never seen a semi filled with fertilizer on a 10 mile non-paved road to nowhere.. The multiplier for the community must have been huge. The misc metal subcontractors made growing gadgets, etc....
As the great sage Hunter Thompson said " when the going gets weird the weird turn pro"...
C
I don't see it exploding in Miami. My island is on the Space Coast. It is a very very big island.
I'm seeing first time home buyers emerging in Miami, or I was.
I'm doing evictions and foreclosures a lot, and so far, people are being medium polite about being kicked out. A lot of formerly thriving empty warehouses. I don't know where the people who used to work there went, but so far, I don't feel endangered.
I grew up in a really bad neighborhood and have a good death stare, but I guess I will try to be more aware of my surroundings.
What make you think Mia will explode. I may be missing something.
I mean, there are all those empty houses to move into. . .
anybody werkin the hot monkey on the FDIC deafult page....hour just rolled.
I was in a Lowe's today and could not find a salesperson in the dept I was shopping. Perhaps 40 customers in the store. How can they keep these mammoths open?
I guess they refuse to pay their mtges, like everybody else.
"Bank holiday? "
LMAOO!
this is all i could find! LOL!
Statement from the FDIC Office of Public Affairs, "The Bloomberg story referencing Chairman Bair's discussion of management and board changes is misleading and does not provide the proper context of her comments. Chairman Bair said that management changes could happen based on the capital plans that an institution must submit to the government. She did not refer to CEOs specifically and the comment was in the context of capital plans submitted by the institutions. Chairman Bair also did not suggest the federal government will remove the bank CEOs." FDIC: Press Releases - PR-71-2009 5/15/2009
No huevos!
No ovaries?
no bff? unless its pr?
[Nades contact the Tres. maybe they have a purchase program to smooth out the pricing ]
Oh Yeah! They intend to sell back into the market, when pricing is better ! You know, when the USG won't have so deep of a hole to fill with daily Treasury sales, because of all that tax $$$ they see rolling in soon and all the surpluses.
Liz, you're a pip.
Agree. There is so much inventory out there in need of rehab that could cut the cost of building from the ground up. I think we should utilize the standing homes that have been abandoned.
Whats a pip?
Better than a PPIP.
Speaking of So. FL and weird, how 'bout this:
6-ft. lizards threaten airport, food chain
Video - Breaking News Videos from CNN.com
All we've got here in LA are coyotes and the occasional bobcat/mountain lion. Oh, and killer bees. Supposedly...
lol:
"The Santopadres are not alone. The Social Security Administration, which sent out 52 million checks, says that some of those checks mistakenly went to dead people because the agency had no record of their death. That amounts to between 8,000 and 10,000 checks for millions of dollars"
"Antoniette Santopadre of Valley Stream was expecting a $250 stimulus check. But when her son finally opened it, they saw that the check was made out to her father, Romolo Romonini, who died in Italy 34 years ago"
Here is the home destruction everyone has been waiting for: YouTube - VICTORVILLE MODEL HOMES DEMOLISHED - SHOCKING VIDEO: Part 5
Citi raised its first non-government-backed bond in nine months – a sign of investor confidence. However, Citi had to offer an interest rate of 8.765 per cent, or 562.5 basis points over US government bonds
would you buy a peice of this?
Maybe the humm, is it pythons or boa constrictors? will eat them.
I'm not kidding. "Pets" were let loose and are florishing in the everglades. I heard that a steath python (or boa) was let loose so he would slither to whereever the lady pythons were lurking so they could be caught.
Next to the 3rd DCA Court of Appeals there used to be a whole flock of pretty green wild parrots. I think they survived the storms.
There used to be a big green iguana I think is was, living in the tree next to my house. In South Miami.
Somebody saw a coatamundi on Merritt Island.
Wild boars live here. Let loose by early settlers.
Wild boars live here
LL
Well, I have a nice recipe for wild boar sausage if you want it. I love wild boar. Like pork, only a tad gamey.
gotta run...night all
What's a pip?
Well, I guess it has become obsolete English. A person who had a certain pithiness was considered a pip.
A pip can also be a smart--or smartass--remark.
I've seen a mama wild boar with several piglets trotting on a dirt road on a swampy area, less than a mile from my house. One got in my neighbor's yard. I hear they are VERY good eating, and actually know people who have eaten them. Unlike squirrels. Hard to catch.
Here's one of your 'pets': Python Bursts After Eating Gator
I like mine a little smaller.
a pip is also a unit used in backgammon. Though I prefer stone.
The gator story is old news. Gators are no longer endangered. I've also seen a couple of gators on walks. One was little; one was big. I don't bother them and they don't bother me.
The wild boars are very hard to catch and shoot.
Apparently only 3-5 generations are needed to turn a pig back into a boar.
I resemble that remark.
I guess.
And I haven't even mentioned the weird people.
Ice cream.
I need ice cream.
"would you buy a peice of this?"
Only with some AIG type CDO/CDS insurance, and the expectation that it would become stock in a BK.
It would be surprising if we did not see a dead cat bounce in housing.
Markets usually don't go straight up or straight down.
Taking me back, one of my grandmother's would at times declaim somebody or something was "the bee's knees"
YLSP (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 5:51 pm
Anecdote from work. Heard scuttlebutt of a number of folks looking at buying. Very large military employer in Ventura County (seems like they moved some of the cars recently). Everyone trying to move to Camarillo. All of them complaining that everything is getting 10+ offers. Some of them bidding on the same places. Guess it must be different here...
Huh? I can only hope "Effective Demand" is getting a piece of the action. I've seen some pretty steep price drops but almost no movement except at the extreme low end (sub $400k). I have seen a lot of hidden inventory as well. Your scuttlebutt made me check some of my peers. The house 3 over just dropped the asking price $550k and still hasn't moved. Such a deal.
Dead cats don't bounce until they hit bottom. Housing is not at the bottom yet, though you might be able to see the bottom with a good pair of binoculars.
bee's knees
and the female drones move the hive...
double-dip or take the loss?
+1 for liz
One less exploded Burmese python to worry about... isnt America great? Incidentally those demo videos from Victorville were really pretty lame... We tore down an old house with an excavator a few years ago, and I assure you it went a lot faster than that... Those guys in Victorville must have been working by the hour....
"It would be surprising if we did not see a dead cat bounce in housing.
Markets usually don't go straight up or straight down."
That is a knife that I am no hurry to catch. Way too many shoes yet to drop. I guess there is no end of fools but, I suspect that a lot of them have been parted from their money and credit ratings. I have not seen any current data with regard to home prices vs. incomes, but when last I looked, we were still quite a way from 3X earnings.
I suspect that cash buyers will be the first to enter in any kind of quantity as the gov has chosen the Japan option with the banks and the only lenders out there are Fannie, Freddie and FHA. It is my opinion that housing will over correct to 2X earnings in the absence of any viable private lending.
right now,
me think all the way back to counter-party risk.....and you were bettin against the Asian female Mud-Huts Now you cannot bet against the house. FED trying to run Credit Globally.. Im stickin in the Euro bonds....
ll: "I've seen a mama wild boar with several piglets trotting on a dirt road on a swampy area, less than a mile from my house. One got in my neighbor's yard. I hear they are VERY good eating, and actually know people who have eaten them. Unlike squirrels. Hard to catch."
I know someone who grew up in a rural area of California, on a farm, with a hunter dad. She first had store pork when she was a teenager. Didn't understand why it tasted so different and good - apparently wild boar is lean. That's her story.
sm_landlord,
Though the movement of RE markets seems to be more akin to the fully loaded VLCC (aka supertanker)...
Still no banks - maybe they are giving us a head fake or maybe they are exhausted... Couldnt be fun being an FDIC examiner now, unless you really like the travel, the cheap motel rooms, the take out food....
I'm thinking it might be time to look for some small industrial property - one of those places where there are a bunch of little auto shops etc... I might be able to buy one and use one of the shops to store my rv and make a few bucks at the same time...
I haven't heard that since I was knee high to a grasshopper.
its fever pithy in th e FX..
Blackhalo,
I think the banks will tip toe into Jumbo lending at some point. The GSE don't supply capital to that market but the profit margin is much better, if you can carry the loan on your books.
the first part of the solution, is saying you have a problem.
Trade War!!!
Trade Wars Brewing in Economic Malaise - washingtonpost.com
"Still no banks - maybe they are giving us a head fake or maybe they are exhausted... Couldnt be fun being an FDIC examiner now, unless you really like the travel, the cheap motel rooms, the take out food...."
Perhaps they are working on something VERY large?
--
It has not escaped my notice that CR is very popular with dopes. He knows precisely how to communicate to dopes. 90%+ of economists in the public have jobs because they know what appeal to dopes. It is a skill and I am jealous of CR for his skills at communicating with dopes that can't handle criticism.
How dare you criticise someone we love, or like?
Jas
I think the banks will tip toe into Jumbo lending at some point.
The conforming market will crater before that happens, due to rising long rates and/or FHA/FNM/FRE implosions.
GMac changed its name to Ally Bank.
is that odd?
Id love to here a monta's ankle psuedo Wii news from the front.
Mr. Smoot? Yes Mr. Hawley? Isnt it about time we protected American jobs? Why of course! What could possible go wrong?
Ice cream yummy.
Weird people.
Popular Cuban? Latin? Radio Priest caught carvorting on the beach.
.
.
With a woman!!!
His name--I swear this is true--is Cutie.
tho my wanna be lawyer intern sez his name is pronounced Cu-tay.
Under 400k low end? Extreme law end??? For 400k in South Florida now, you can get something modestly palatial.
"I think the banks will tip toe into Jumbo lending at some point."
The rates and down payment would be prohibitive I think, at current prices. I do not know what kind of unsecured loan volumes there are these days but I doubt there are many banks that want to be knife catchers either. What is the cost for default insurance, as that would need to be passed on to the borrower?
"Triad Guaranty Insurance Corp., stopped writing mortgage-insurance policies. The company's auditor also expressed doubts about its ability to continue as a going concern in its 2008 financials."
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com
Mmm, hmm. To be TARPed?
"Though the movement of RE markets seems to be more akin to the fully loaded VLCC "
Hehe, yes, especially at the high end.
But at the low end, we keep hearing anecdotes about multiple bids and a few actual closings.
Heck, even Wile E. Coyote managed to catch a branch or two on his way to the canyon floor.
Of course, the anvil was always right behind him...
I finally had to ignore Jas... Too much over the top, never any facts, never any good debate - Jas you appear to be a TOTAL IDIOT and GET NO RESPECT!
Jas mentioned the jealousy of CR. Actually I think none of us said that, but I admit I
was thinking it.
I'm hearing about some low end bidding here. Low end ==125-200k ish. or less.
Builders trade down all summer...if yer living in a house you built, best to sell it for what its worth, and get a piece of land and a low end house. thats what floors the low end on devaluation. Conditions are good for this move
149 ignores 10. signal to noise up. water the garden. I'll be back.
FFDIC been heard from recently??
Just checked - Nothing...
Well I like debate - over the years I have learned a lot, and even at my advanced age I like to think I'm still learning, and that my knowledge is not perfect.... So debate me, state your thesis supported by facts, and if I cant counter them I will change my position - as long as you agree to do the same... We both win...
How many people are working for FDIC now?
lawyerliz,
FFDIC is alive and well, presumably indisposed at the moment. Was asking about First New York Life Insurance co
You can get a Jumbo Loan in my area.30% down,6 months reserves,verifiable income and several years on the job.Expect at least one appraisal review...
yum, wild boar that brings back memories. When my dad was stationed in Germany, Grafenwohr, the commanding General used to host a Graf Fest in which the local forest meister would lead a boar hunt, and then they cooked it Hawaii style buried in the ground over coals. Best meat I ever had, though it was a touch gamy. Those babies can get huge though, a soldier in a little vw bug hit one, and the boar won.
I dont know liz. Black Swan on Mish always posts f*ckin 5 acre mansions in Florifa for like 250k
So I guess low end airspace florida condo should go for about 80k, 2bdrm, 2bath and parking. Atlanta condo conversion no reserve auction in the "Hysterical district"....too many buyers with money and time.
There are not a lot of stupid people with 30% down and 6 months reserves,so the high end is slooooowwww.
Residuedentials look good...
--
Oh boy, CR-dopes are in full force today.
CR has been making too many claims as to how he saw things being bad so early. If that were the case then whe would he wait until January 2008 to make his recession call (when the recession began) and why was he in denial of the severe recession call for more than a year? CR has the same problem that most American-born economists have--they are hesitant about making negative forecasts until after the fact.
Jas
AMF in the hizzouse......shock and econAwe me.
you gotta drink to a bank failure. thats rulez 1 on Friday.
i think i owe amf 1 quantoo (not a single bank failure?!? really????)
nuke, 1 was a mexican national living in socal, the other 3 were citizens is all i know. maybe they were in the wrong place at the wrong time.... maybe right place, wrong time....
good night all....
We just came back from dropping off the wifes car and having dinner. We had to drive almost to the end of line of auto dealers to get to hers. The Chrysler dealer already has the sign gone and a 50% off sale. Another dealership was empty and starting tommorow is going to be a flea market. The Hummer dealer was empty. The Aston Martin dealer looked like it had, maybe 20 cars in stock. The Chevy dealer looked like they were shutting down.
Don't putsch yourself out banks, but there are Quatloos riding on the outcome...
O/T: Very off topic. I'm sorry, but our anglo/western/american society needs some serious reform socially/culturally/comunally. Here's to looking on the bright side of lean times
"To stay in business, Hayward is considering moving some manufacturing operations to the United States, potentially creating jobs here. That, Peru Mayor Jim Walker notes, is what the stimulus was supposed to be about. "
Nova,how was the Maybach dealer doing?
--
I guess CR did make the headline-CPI deflation forcast, din't he?
One has to be an economics moron not to foresee that with the worst Housing Bust in history taking place.
Jas
no bank failure? we are in recovery. the fed smiles.
I ran into an old friend whose low endish condo usta be worth 200 or so and is now worth 90k.
He bought it with his mom for 'way less than that.
As I said, I did a closing for a guy for an REO for 52k.
If you are over 55, you can buy a condo in Century Village for 50 or 60 or even 40. And they are very strict with the maintenance payments, so I don't see the water being cut off for non-payment.
I wish I know where the jobless people are going to. Same old panhandlers working the corners, no new ones.
The NY Times has a story on the decline of Mexican illegals - down 25%
I wonder how many drove home in new trucks? When I was kid on the Rez the word was the People were always disapearing into the wasteland with their new trucks never to be seen again.
in the glass and down the snatch it goes, make mine a 2x+ good one, Winston
who was that kid...that one in florida...used to post a lot here and on mishs site...
cobradriver....
If you know any car dealers who got canned...might want to go visit them. Heard from two people today that a local dealer sold cars for a buck plus TTL. Apparently isn't taking the news well.
Tom, I did not go inside. They usually only have 1 at the Benz dealer.
EHP and he has DIABETES too... Well at least we wont be paying HIS social security, although we are probably paying for his ice cream, root beer, and twinkies...
Lord, why this sufferin?
In the interim, hedgie and opex call blues:
YouTube - John Lee Hooker - It Serves Me Right to Suffer
C
Somewhat worrisome?:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Thanks nova,they are lovely things.Useless,but lovely.
Yes, I am getting vibes of weirdness from many people.
Some people are carrying on as if nothing has changed in their lives, even though they have no jobs or income. They can't bring themselves to admit their problems.
People are showering money on their children who just graduated from college and weren't lucky in the job market, rather than kicking them out on their ass and telling them to sink or swim.
People are spending their work hours papering over their flaws and boredom, to make it appear they are valuable to their employers, instead of doing actual work. They know it will eventually catch up with them and they will get canned, but they can't stop.
America is mostly becoming dysfunctional, I think.
Ummm, I think what he really has is a mental disorder. Can you imagine the self hatred it takes to display onesself like that.
I'm gonna sign off soon, a dissappointed pip.
"yum, wild boar that brings back memories."
For me, Estonia. Wild Beast of the Forest.
Tom, I looked at it a while back. They are. remember a few years ago one was bought and never ran for more than a few blocks before it broke down. The guy who bought it has to sue the dealership to get them to take it back. The Aston Martin place had 2 Ferraris and a Ford GT
Pavel the most worrisome thing I read recently is that not all cases have fever. In fact one article mentioned an American CDC doc working in Mexico City saying that the case numbers are much higher because a lot of patients are being listed as having pneumonia instead of flu from lack of high grade fevers. I can't find anything about this happening stateside yet, but I am looking. A virus that doesn't activate the body's best defense, is scary.
Day 2 w/o ***
I'll admit to getting the shakes, perhaps going through Delirium Treasuries withdrawals, and part of me wants to believe i'll find enough color at the bottom of the pan, to justify me working his river of words, but all I ever seem to find is gravel.
"America is mostly becoming dysfunctional, I think. "
more like a sign of denial...
yea havent seen cobradriver in a good long time....
they don't have to tear their heirs out
Tearing their heirs out?
The children must love that; hope Child Protective Services doesn't read this blog.
NW
Does Lithuania have wild boar?
My bestest friend from high school is Lithuanian.
We used to drive the nuns crazy in high school asking questions of religion.
We are still in touch after nearly 50 years.
She dragged me to a Goldwater meeting and we met our respective husbands there and are both still married. Apparently Cheney would kick Goldwater out of the party for not being Republican enough. Being pro choice 'n' all.
Chris the Cobra Driver was posting under another name briefly.
Why? When?
America has been growing dysfunctional for many years. I don't think is denial, they just don't know what is happening. Very hard lesson coming for them.
If you believe we are a nation of addicts. A book was written stating that a few years ago. Then denial is no surprise.
yer a good egg. laddy
winstonized for youre pleasure
People keep living the way they are accustomed until they have maxed out the last credit card and just can't get even one cent more. And not just now, I have observed this for years. It is a good reason not to raise your consumption if you make more money.
Is Winstonized like Boulderized? (sp?)
"Pavel the most worrisome thing I read recently is that not all cases have fever. "
Vonbek77, that does sound odd. Of course, I'm not a physician or epidemiologist.. I wonder how old these non-febrile people were.
Someone just told me today he'd recovered from pneumonia. He's a contemporary of mine, in his seventies.
My wife was in Macys tonight. She told me that a women told the cahier she had been turned down 10 times for a card so far tonight but she wanted him to try again as her other cards - including her debit were not working. What does that sound like?
"Does Lithuania have wild boar?"
Probably.
Hmmm, my Lithuanian friends 90ish year old father in law just was hospitalized with pneumonia, but he had a stroke and I understand this does in many very old people.
rich - this is what I was getting at last night, a great complacency seems to stalk the land. The bad news seems always to happen elsewhere. Local / smalltown news where I was seemed to be mostly fires, missing pets, and obits, or the occasional ATF round-up. And always a syndicated columnist belching wrath against gubmint or taxes, while tammany hall pols fulminate about the shovel readies not getting fed teat, or mindless campaigns to name chunks of concrete after nobodies. Hardly the Book of Lamentations.
C
Does Lithuania have wild boar?
and a few nationalistic bores too
slowwwww down.......
[Inappropriate comment - name calling -edit by CR]
Jas
rich had some of that F at a buck fifty eight
you think he's holdin?
jased and amuzed</>
"In recent weeks, its largest client -- a steel pipemaker located one mile down the road -- notified Duferco Farrell that it would be canceling orders. Instead, the client is buying from companies with 100 percent U.S. production to meet the new stimulus regulations. Duferco has had to furlough 80 percent of its workforce.
"You need to tell me how inhibiting business between two companies located one mile apart is going to save American jobs," said Bob Miller, Duferco Farrell's executive vice president. "I've got 600 United Steel Workers out there who are going to lose their jobs because of this. And you tell me this is good for America?" "
Sounds like he is sad that he is not getting his direct share of the pork pie.
If this requirement only applies to the 680 BB of the stimulus package, how is this guy hurt relative to, no stimulus package? Where would those workers be sans stimulus. Also, he can still benefit from secondary effects of the stimulus, as the wages and payments for these efforts, may lead to non-restricted work. I do not see an issue with keeping, specifically the direct payments of the stimulus package, USA only. Now, when the Canucks municipalities start going 100% Can only, that might be a bit over the line.
Shut up, Jas.
The New Book of Job (American Version)
Job was a good man and blessed by Goblin. He had more condos then could be counted. His children each drove an S Class Mercedes Benz. His fields were filled with new subdivisions. Then Satan said to the Goblin "Smite his ass and see if he loves you then." So he was smited. His cars were repo'ed. His condos foreclosed. His sibdivision were found to be built with Chinese drywall. Job cried out to the heavens "This really sucks!"
wow, 206 ignores 13.
193 it is then.
--
"America has been growing dysfunctional for many years. I don't think is denial, they just don't know what is happening. Very hard lesson coming for them."
How do you suppose I reached the conclusion that Americans are born-and-bred dopes?
Most people here don't recognize but many of their exchanges about Americans and the system prove my point.
DOPES, BY DEFINITION, ARE IN DENIAL OF THE REALITY AND THEY HATE ANYONE THAT WOULD CRITICIZE THEM.
Jas
I am beginning to think Jas is a bot or at least has his comments cut and past ready. They are almost all the same, slight changes here and there, but the same....what is that quote attributed to Einstein: Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results....of course I don't think Jas is expecting different results......
"America is mostly becoming dysfunctional, I think. "
I watched this happen after 9/11. It affected my productivity as well.
People go into shock for a while when disaster strikes. It's a challenge to manage people through times like this.
And for the newly unemployed, at least those who do (edit: not) know how to create their own structure, the shock can last for a long time.
In the last recession, I remember reading about people who would get up, get dressed, and go drive around until dinner time because they did not know what else to do with themselves.
I don't think people are so much acting dysfunctional, as they are resorting to defensive/coping mechanisms. There is little they can do at this point to protect themselves, and if they accepted the truth of the situation they would have to live under immediate fear.
So they go out shopping, stores look busy. They turn on the TV, the newsreader cannot stop talking about green shoots. Maybe things aren't so bad after all. It gets them through their days, but they do not believe it in their heart
So they take the maximum amount of action possible, without having to face the fear. Little things. Run the car until it wears out. Don't buy a new seasonal wardrobe. The marginal cutbacks in their lives that don't have the immediate impact on their quality of living. Meanwhile, they come in to work earlier. (scroll down to SC: RECESSION EARLY WORKDAYS ) Exceptions being that people realize there is no work to do at work, and have their own expectations of not being laid off short of the company itself closing down.
It's not a matter of them literally being too stupid to understand, it's that with the entire global economy in a deep slump there are no returns on panic. This is a state of dread without an exit
P.S.
In retrospect I shouldn't have posted that fat man eating video(s), dawdling on the symptoms of an ill society can be done using less shock-value, if necessary at all.
DOPES, BY DEFINITION, ARE IN DENIAL OF THE REALITY AND THEY HATE ANYONE THAT WOULD CRITICIZE THEM.
You mistake boredom for hatred. Have an original thought for once, Jas.
Nova, that was great. I love the book of Job, but you keep rewriting it, I think I like yours better...
***,
You have done enough. Have you no sense of decency sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?
[Inappropriate comment - name calling - edit by CR]
Jas
In the last recession, I remember reading about people who would get up, get dressed, and go drive around until dinner time because they did not know what else to do with themselves.
The company I worked for was laying people off. One the guys who worked there was let go and spent the next month getting up and doing exactly that. We were paid monthly so he had 1 month before the wife found out.
Jas, Please refrain from name calling. If you can't stop, you will be banned.
Don't fall a new seasonal wardrobe.
EHP, breakin in shoes for the elite since 1938. Im guessing.
LL is set with all the gator, python and pig meat she can eat. The rest of us will have to do with rats and possum.
Here in central coast California, the state park we volunteer at trapped out over 700 pigs a couple of summers ago.
They can't be donated as food as they have to be slaughtered in an approved slaughter house. The state can't even close the park and have hunters take the pigs as there really is no way to close the park - 87,000 acres is a bit big to fence. Then there are the pig huggers who will not adopt a boar as a pet to save the wild pig. The state does run areas, Grizzly Island, where duck hunting is allowed. The state may have reconsider the pig hunting ban in state parks due to the state funding crisis.
Re: Missing commenters from the past. Can someone knock on the door to the bankerdome/bunker and tell the banker it is safe to come out?
"The New Book of Job (American Version)"
Funny indeed. : )
Vonbek - Thanks. Maybe I will rewrite it ...
You should read my last novella if you like doom porn. I am rather proud of it...
"wow, 206 ignores 13.
193 it is then."
Where do you get this from?
--
"I watched this happen after 9/11."
sm-landlord,
9/11 was a perfect example of how born-and-bred dopes react, or can be made to react. I coined the term only after 9/11.
Jas
Jas who?
CR you're a better person than I am. (Jas flame a way)
Damn, I got Jas on ignore. I got tired of his emails asking for fotos of me in a flesh colored spandex thong.
EHP, breakin in shoes for the elite since 1938. Im guessing.
America has no patent on BBDs, It is world wide.
Where's "Banker"? Didn't the bankerdome only have 6 months of air?
I consider the waiving of my mineral rights in the US after the death of my mother to my aunts a great salvation I made for this country....my family's been broken in a land grab since land was sold for beads.
bANK fAILURE
That 'typo' has since been corrected by my secretary, I don't know how she messed it up in the first place. Ok, you can click save now, but don't type what I just said
I heard California is considering an air tax now... also a scenery tax...
"it's that with the entire global economy in a deep slump there are no returns on panic."
Lethargy is normal in an emergency situation. People won't accept that things are falling down around them. I think it's in the program, instinctual. In this case, there's also not much to be done about it.
You got $24 worth of beads and some pretty ones in the bunch, and remember how you thought you took us on the deal, because there were so many red ones?
Jas,
I am very confused here and I hope that you can help me. I think I may grasp the dope concept but how would one define the anti-dope?
@pavel,
I don't think the swine flu is especially worrisome. Yes, it is spreading fast, but it doesn't appear to be any more deadly than the normal strains of flu that circulate amongst the population. Yes, it is killing people, but like typical stains, it is killing mostly people that have other underlying health issues. It is something to watch but it doesn't look like the killer pandemic it could have been.
It sounds funny today, but for a long part of human history, glass beads were more valuable than gold. It wasn't until we got advanced with high temperature furnaces first powered by charcoal for forging tools/weapons that they were available. Then only after we switched to coal that using the furnaces to create them became much more economical. Ditto for Aluminum being much more prized until the advent of electricity/smelting
Was speaking in french today when I realized the common word for money in French is argent, which you know as silver. Thought it was neat how it persisted, for probably deeper reasons than we may have naturally considered during the Goldilocks era (where all the soup tasted good, because it was the best kind of soup, free soup)
Back for a spell.
I'm smelling burnt toast on the East Coast.
"You got $24 worth of beads and some pretty ones in the bunch"
I'm just reading Nathaniel Philbrick's book about the Mayflower pilgrims. By the time they got here, the indigenous people had already been devastated by European-induced infections, probably flu, plague, small pox,TB et. al. The land was nearly empty, because so many had died.
@ 20000 Defaults Under the CRE (profile)...
You should have left it "defaults under the C"
I am on my iPhone, so no link.
Charles Millard ex-head of PBGC is under investigation!
CC - Wait 'till the second wave in Oct/Nov.
Sacred Spirit - A Tribute to the Native American People
"I don't think the swine flu is especially worrisome. "
Perhaps, but I think we won't know for a while how this will develop.
--
CR,
IMO, the #1 cause of the current crisis and the future misery is because we are a nation of BBAD since the baby boomers generation. People don't have to buy into my observation but I get daily confirmations of this.
Dope = brainwashed individual. If the whole population has been brainwashed from birth to engage in certain behavior and thinking, as I believe is the case with America, what is an appropriate method to communicate that message, especially, when that behavior is obvious and exhibited frequently? I see certain common behavior exhibited here by many. Aren’t examples one way to prove a claim?
Just curious,
Jas
CR - You missed this one:
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — An economist on leave from the federal agency that insures bank deposits has been charged with the April 11 attempted robbery of a Kansas City-area bank.
Jeff Walser said he had a bomb in his briefcase and demanded money at the Bank of America branch in Independence, but did not take $41,000 brought to him by an employee, according to an indictment filed Tuesday.
Walser, 51, surrendered to police and was being held in federal custody, the U.S. attorney's office said.
Jas
Who are you trying to convince here?
Regarding fever the baseline temp for elderly folks is lower. I have had patients in big danger whose oral temps were 99.8
401 Authorization Required
No one asked - but hey that never stopped me. This is the link to the 2nd half of the CR inspired, visionary, and semi good story of life after the financial crash.
401 Authorization Required
Jas is now my one and only Ignore User. You might say I have caste him/her out.
Comrade Coinz - You may be right.
Jas - Since your dope definition relies on groups of people conforming to a certain behavior and thinking, wouldn’t that by default make anyone who is slightly different in their view a non-dope?
Barley (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 8:11 pm
Jas is now my one and only Ignore User. You might say I have caste him/her out.
You can't touch this.
or for the entire story in 1 file
http://thegermanpolice.com/afterthecrash/anamericanapocalypse.pdf
barfly - Thx for posting that.
--
EHP: "Jas Who are you trying to convince here?"
The heretics, or the non-believers!
I must admit that dopes are funny in a way.
Jas
EHP- Tanta used to say that the hallmark of a troll was that no matter how it tries to give the appearance of trying to communicate, the reality is that the troll has no interest in anyone else's opinion. Effective communication implies a respect for the auditor's opinion.
Re: l'argent,...how about salary (salt)?
Here is the link to the story. New York Times. Had to find it.
"Many Swine Flu Cases Have No Fever"
CC was that a + or a dig?
"FTC Targets Massive Car Warranty Robocall Scheme"
Slashdot | FTC Targets Massive Car Warranty Robocall Scheme
Thank goodness. I was getting sick of these things.
Til I get my way and Jas goes away
YouTube - Black Keys - Till I Get My Way
Thanks for the answer CR. Appreciate it.
look at what Jas promotes.
Swiss fanks.
Gold.
US Treasuries.
shorting anything and everything, US BBAD think is real money.
he's not a bad guy...
welcome to the problem.mish saying US treasuries are a buy is also part of the problem.
"Regarding fever the baseline temp for elderly folks is lower."
Sometimes, if I'm feeling a bit out of sorts, I'll take my temp and find it's in the 97 range. I don't think of myself as elderly, but I'm no chicken, either.
Thanks Nova, I will check it out. I am trying to write too, so maybe I will find some inspiration.
not US dollar
panic and escape
claims on money
the circumstance of your bank, your people, and your personal situation brings people right to the cliffs edge...
sdtfs - thanks for that reminder. Tanta was right on.
As an aside, Citi cut my credit limit again - ostensibly for my own good. My limit has now been reduced by over 75%. I neither use the card nor carry a balance, so I'm not sure what they hope to gain. Not customer goodwill, that's for sure.
I wonder if Brian Westbury worships the God of "Wright Model B". How else could he be so consistently 100% wrong ?
what is not US dollar panic and escape claims on money...
isnt that what everyone's concerned about?
Jas,
I think you are bright person who has a lot to contribute here. I really liked your article on Schumpeter.
But, I don't understand the need to be so antagonistic, unless you just like swatting bee hives.
Barley - you're most welcome -
I dont need to read Jas to understand when he is here.
--
One's money in American dollars is far safer with the US Treasury than with any public company, or any bank. Case closed. Gold is the best insurance against USTs being worthless or devalued. I got both in right proportions.
I realize that USTs are beyond dopes' ability to figure out based on thousands of comments I have gotten over the years. Please look at all the comments on my holdings of the USTs on this blog over the past year. I am up nicely for the year, thank you.
Jas
@bank failure,
mish saying US treasuries are a buy is also part of the problem.
Why is that a problem?
The perception of a bottom in interest rates should pop home sales for awhile. I'd be surprised if it lasted more than a few months, though.
long dollar and long claims on money.
Its like saying the long end of the dollar is good money against the long end of the older countries.
Jas Jain (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 8:29 pm reply Ignore user
One's money in American dollars is far safer with the US Treasury than with any public company, or any bank. Case closed. Gold is the best insurance against USTs being worthless or devalued. I got both in right proportions.
They both can't be the best place now can they? There can be only one safest. You are no more prescient than those BBAD you decry.
I am not Jas or Mish, but my own analysis has led me to:
1) UST (bills)
2) GNMAs
3) gold
Does that make me un-American?
Barley (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 5:45 pm
fyi and off topic - on an annualized basis Russia is tracking for a -23% GDP for 2009
At least that approximates the change in population....
ADDED:
To be fair to Jas, he is correct in CR was pooh poohing potential CRE losses during the early days only to come around late in the day.
Doesn't mean he needs to be a douchenozzle about it and beat it to death every time the topic comes up. We barely do that to Sebastian anymore and he's as right as a clock with no hands.
coinz, GNMAE gets thrown under the proverbial Freddies Fanny....
gold has a long way down. against panic in Europe. Old aunt Euro got the big gold bar already.....find yer old aunt in Europe and make sure the map to the bar is verifiable.
+1 puttin a tea in it.
Ilargi:
"Everything that still functions to a degree in the US now runs on government hand-outs, bail-outs and guarantees. Everything. That's it. And I’m not kidding here. Take out government support for banks, home purchases, car loans and all the rest, and you would be looking at a barren lunar economic landscape. And things are getting visibly worse every single day."
~The Automatic Earth
--
"But, I don't understand the need to be so antagonistic, unless you just like swatting bee hives."
Coinz,
First, thanks.
I like to expose the characteristic American dopey behavior that is the prime cause of the problems, including how and what economists communicate. IMO, economists have greatly contributed to the current crisis. Unfortunately, CR shares some of the characteristics common to public economists in America. Sad part is that he is incapable of understanding that as a part of his American upbringing, or cultural breeding.
I hope that there was no objectionable language in the above criticism.
Jas
Coinz
The yield on USGTs will have to, it must , rise and therefore value drops. This will be felt first in the the 30 and then the 10. Some are saying that corp. paper will settle down and the 8-10% we are seeing wil fall closer to the UST rates. I submit the opposite will happen. Ts will fall in value and the reflective interest rate will have to adjust for the risk. The risk is only up, not even flat. I would not be surprized if the US 30Y was nugging 5 or 6 by year end.
Jas,
Re: UST. I heard the argument that the massive yields in the bond markets and the goverment sector in particular is only a function of a macro-economic decline in interest rates. Some blame the lower rates on more efficient economies some blame government intervention. I have my own theories.
Do you think that the current yields are sustainable? Clearly risk has not been correctly calculated in the greater bond market. The belief that the current low USD yields can only be attributed to a sound system.
If you believe in the depression theory then the sound system theory seems at odds with it.
Either way, do you really think the 10 year will be at 3.5 or what ever it is now in say 5 years?
I'm not so sure....
@bank failure,
I think GNMAs are safer than Freddies Fanny because of their explicit guarantee, not that I expect the government to abandon Freddies Fanny any time soon. I liken them to the belly of the yield curve, but with a slightly higher yield. I am also ready to retreat back into T-bills if interest rates explode. I got nervous last week, but they recovered nicely this week. I expect them to do well the rest of the year. Of course, I could be exactly wrong
Every one has strong points as well as weak ones. So in the world of BBAD's any weakness makes useless. Sad I'm sure you have many weaknesses. Maybe that makes you the King of BBAD's.
Good night.
@barley,
I am in T-bills, 30 day to 3 months. Yes, I am chicken, that's why they are yielding effectively 0%. But, I am also in GNMAs getting a healthy real return for now. And, finally, I am in coinz.
Jas while I appreciate your constructive comments about the economy and investing, I find your arrogance and rudeness with regards to CR simply astound me.
I resisted the temptation for a while but Jas has joined Michael in my Ignore list.
Barley I called for a 5.75% on the US ten since 2007. and on Mishs blog....after the big comments change....it all got lost in that old comment system.
--
Rob Dawg,
I do diversify as a matter of prudence. Have done for years.
My proportion of the USTs is the highest and Swiss is the lowest in years. I fully expect long UST bond yield to make new lows over the next 6-18 months. I am a professional speculator and I do hedge when prudence calls for it. I hedged when long bond hit 135. Right now I am short 110P-135C strangle (naked).
Jas
coinz, you are talking about US dollar claims on US dollar debt, if systemic is on, the table correlations go to one.
@ROB DAWG
Received your message, and I apologize for not answering you sooner, but just checked my mail.
My father died almost forty years ago, but if you can provide a few details, I might be able to answer your question.
Dang, no BFF? And I had a two quart Ball jar of McMenamin's pilsner all set to go.
OT: nova writes: You should read my last novella if you like doom porn. I am rather proud of it...
Yes, I agree... much more realistic than the Mad Maxian visions of doom we're offered. Thanks for sharing this stuff gratis!
I hope that someday it's revealed that Jas was a CR sock puppet
--
Coinz,
Pardon me for asking.
Are GNMA, FFs, etc. safer than the USTs?
Last week there were many UST STRIPS yielding 4.6%!!!!!!!!!!! Now, they are close to 4.5%. I hope that I don't offend anyone here but only dopes would be in Scams and other debt instruments compared to USTs. GOLD is, and has been for years, THE insurance against financial collapse.
Only ill-informed think that there would be inflation in the US any time soon. I wonder what CR's forecast is for the most important economic variable--CPI rate of change. Mine has been clear--deflation by 2009Q2 and at least for few years. Inflation is not in sight.
Jas
all my indicators point lower.
1. Lower US bond prces in Dollars.
2. Lower US equity Prices in Dollars.
3. Bear market, short, intermediate, and 200 day.
---when you convince me, few are really convinced.
disclamier*
I am longer claims on not dollars than I have ever been in my lifetime.
-1r
"I hope that someday it's revealed that Jas was a CR sock puppet "
lol
I've overstayed my welcome...
as misaen once said.....nytol.
"As the market economy grows, it leads to the marketization of power and the
fungibility of money and power"
"The government seizes land from the people, pushing the price down to a
minimum, then hands it over to developers who sell it at a huge mark-up. [note: Kelo] It
also manipulates stocks and figures out how to siphon off society's monetary
resources like the savings accounts of ordinary people using the funds for public
construction that stimulates internal demand and keeps growth high.... "
"...what we now have is a tripartite group in which the political elite, the economic elite,
and the intellectual elite are fused."
"...has produced "power-elite capitalism," which is "capitalism of the worst kind.""
Zhao Ziyang, criticizing the current situation in China. China Elections and Governance | The Carter Center
I was surprised at the resemblance to the U.S. Key phrases: "marketization of power", "fungibility of money and power", seizure of private property, manipulation of markets, "power-elite capitalism" (AKA "crony capitalism"?).