This explains consumer confidence. Consumers are taking their cues from the banking sector and maxing out their credit cards with no intention of repaying.
McNamara's Brand started out so innocently way back when...
(from Diner's Club page)
t's 1949. Businessman Frank McNamara schedules dinner at Major's Cabin Grill, a New York City restaurant. Dinner over, Frank realizes he has left his wallet in his other suit. His wife rescues him and pays. He resolves never to face this embarrassment again.
February 1950. McNamara and his partner Ralph Schneider return to Major's Cabin Grill. When the bill comes, McNamara presents a small, cardboard card, a Diners Club Card, and signs for the purchase. In the credit card industry, this event is known as the First Supper…
I used to get a few CC apps per day in the mail. My wife and I have great credit and both have our jobs. I get a few CC apps a week now. Much nicer. I dont havbe to empty my shredder as often.
What does "consumer confidence" mean anyway? I know a lot of consumers who now feel more confident about their ability to buy things they will need --- because they've stopped buying tons of useless shit they DON'T need.
OK, so maybe it's true that banks can't afford to loan money to their existing customers if rates are capped at 15%.
So they just need to find a bunch of new customers, right? Virtuous people who always pay their debts. Shouldn't be so hard to find. In fact, I recently received a referral from a guy named Diogenes. I will let you know how that turns out.
re- firearms, i heard on cnbc this a.m. that the gun industry is referring to the president as their salesman in chief. beretta's sales are up something like 66% since obama took office (if i remember the percentage correctly)...
This must be one of the only two negative indicators conjure detected. Gosh I can only think of 20 or thirty more candidates for the remaining possibility.
ammo is hard to find and has been. a lot of the more popular weapons are hard to come by. used gun market is getting more than what they were worth new. that kind of thing.
Riot - 12 gauge Winchester pump shotgun, .357 magnum Colt King Cobra... the 9 inch barrel model - gives you the option to shoot or club... For more serious work - HK 91, Ruger Mini30, etc... at least one with a high power scope...
As a kid I worked BAC collections. We used to age accounts all the time. 60 days past due? well, send us a payment and I'll bring you current. was a particularly useful tool if we were close to not making numbers.
Understanding how the average American consumer overspends, I think you'd have to be crazy to extend them unsecured credit in general, and double crazy to extend them unsecured credit while unemployment is soaring.
For Friday contemplation: Radiohead's FItter Happier...future tense or present past?
Fitter, happier, more productive,
comfortable,
not drinking too much,
regular exercise at the gym
(3 days a week),
getting on better with your associate employee contemporaries ,
at ease,
eating well
(no more microwave dinners and saturated fats),
a patient better driver,
a safer car
(baby smiling in back seat),
sleeping well
(no bad dreams),
no paranoia,
careful to all animals
(never washing spiders down the plughole),
keep in contact with old friends
(enjoy a drink now and then),
will frequently check credit at
(moral) bank (hole in the wall),
favors for favors,
fond but not in love,
charity standing orders,
on Sundays ring road supermarket
(no killing moths or putting boiling water on the ants),
car wash
(also on Sundays),
no longer afraid of the dark or midday shadows
nothing so ridiculously teenage and desperate,
nothing so childish - at a better pace,
slower and more calculated,
no chance of escape,
now self-employed,
concerned (but powerless),
an empowered and informed member of society
(pragmatism not idealism),
will not cry in public,
less chance of illness,
tires that grip in the wet
(shot of baby strapped in back seat),
a good memory,
still cries at a good film,
still kisses with saliva,
no longer empty and frantic
like a cat
tied to a stick,
that's driven into
frozen winter shit
(the ability to laugh at weakness),
calm,
fitter,
healthier and more productive
a pig
in a cage
on antibiotics.
Sample looping in background:
[This is the Panic Office, section nine-seventeen may have been hit. Activate the following procedure.]
[one option on the table is the release of 19,000 "non-violent" state prisoners]
Not violent crimes, YET. What will these wards of the State of CA do exactly, when they hit the street ? Find a good paying job, in CA ?
Skills they learned while encarcerated will come in handy. I fully expect a jump in both violent and non-violent crimes if criminals aer released. Maybe Ahnold can cut law enforcement too - cut back on arrests/convictions to keep the prison population down. Ship to other states! Lots of great ideas!
A slowdown in the rate of growth counts for progress these days.
Case in point. I was going over a mortgage pool this morning with some folks in a meeting. 90+ delinquencies increased to 14% from 13% the month earlier, and 12% the month before that (in rough numbers).
One could say the rate of increase was 1% this month, in line with last month.
OR, one could say 90+ increased at a rate of 14/13 = 7.7%, versus 13/12 = 8.33%, so the rate of increase is slowing. GREEN SHOOT.
A rising denominator isn't a sign of a turnaround in my mind.
There was an article the other day with the numbers on the WM CC portfolio. It was awful. The reported JPM numbers usually don't include that portfolio, it seems like it is kind of an internal "bad bank" which has been segregated and is considered in runoff.
My moment of clarity on consumer credit came back in the '80s, when I was a ringer in a focus group for people who carried month-to-month balances on multiple credit cards. (I needed the $50 and free lunch, a guy at the agency was a friend.) The lead researcher asked the group what they wanted in a card, and to a wo/man they said "higher limits." Not lower interest rates, higher limits. (I echoed the herd, of course.)
From that day on, I kinda knew all this would not end well.
When I was 22 I bought a car with a credit card (downpayment). The rest was financed at 29% but the monthly payment was ok. The car salesman had me on his Christmas card list for a couple years after that.
Thats because you are not a real "American." I always thout the Russian obsession with authors who took 2 pages to describe what a minor character is wearing a little strange.
How are the state cuts being felt out in your neck of the woods?
Barely a word said here but all the anger seems to be focused elsewhere at the moment: Yudof, new Chancellor money bags (sorry, forgot her name), and UCD paying for Michelle Obama's visit to Merced. Oh and big outrage at the local UCD PD which are now camping at every exit from the univ hoping for a little "ticket stimulus" fund infusion into their coffers.
Any of you listen to what Najarian said on CNBC this morning about options activity in the life insurers (was just back on, that is what reminded me). Apparently there was crazy activity yesterday, before the news broke about TARP, on MAY calls (you know, the ones that expire today).
looking like someone was tipped off.
this sort of BS really adds a lot of confidence to the markets.
but i guess one should expect that sort of corruption in a banana republic.
Thats because you are not a real "American." I always thout the Russian obsession with authors who took 2 pages to describe what a minor character is wearing a little strange.
Tolstoy could make a two-page description of someone washing a teacup spellbinding. Dostoevsky could make it terrifying.
I called the AMEX folks last month and told the rep I did not want to renew--I was a member since 1976, never missed a payment and only had one blip with a Visa due to Capital One folks surface posting it to Europe. The AMEX rep wanted to know why I did not want to renew--I had not used the card in two years and only held it for the car rental insurance--no car owned here, thus no insurance. She sounded rather perplexed that I wanted to cancel the renewal, and she did not seem to understand that I felt paying $60.00 a year for the "privilege" of the green card.
Never have carried a balance on any card, don't own house or car (redundant), self-employed (low 20k Euro income with wife) waiting for a pension in Europe and all assets in cash, one child employed and through college, one granddaughter over some serious surgery, both in the US. I do not post to feel good about myself or boast just to indicate that it is possible to survive.
Any of you listen to what Najarian said on CNBC this morning about options activity in the life insurers (was just back on, that is what reminded me). Apparently there was crazy activity yesterday, before the news broke about TARP, on MAY calls (you know, the ones that expire today).
I'm seeing the same thing with my Prosper "investments." I put a few $k in last year to see what it was like to be a lender. After making money initially, now I'm just breaking even as the defaults = interest. All prime borrowers with documented income streams... so much for FICO!
Weapons are necessary for harmony. Like stop signs and curbing in traffic.
Samurai wore two swords at all times and exuded martial spirit. Drawing their sword meant drawing blood. So they were careful to contain green shoots of turmoil without compromising swift justice.
They lamented death or injury to others as a failure of exquisitely formed rules of etiquette and diplomacy. Theirs was a separate class, with a demanding code of conduct. There was little tolerance of abuse. Dishonor was death at your own hands.
Every samurai was sanctioned with death powers over all subordinates. Many sheriffs, much fewer crimes. It is infused in Japanese society today. Behaviour such as has been seen in the USA financial system would have come with such shame and loss of face/society, that it would never have been contemplated. Family honor, once shamed, carries for generations.
Western civilization seems barbaric in comparison. This is an example of self-regulating law which WAS effective.
Any of you listen to what Najarian said on CNBC this morning about options activity in the life insurers (was just back on, that is what reminded me). Apparently there was crazy activity yesterday, before the news broke about TARP, on MAY calls (you know, the ones that expire today).
looking like someone was tipped off.
Interestingly, the insurers are pretty much down across the board after opening way up. Call volumes aren't that high today, so maybe all those who bought on the insider info were the suckers after all?
Here's the gun store, and here's the sheeple
Open the door and see all the people.
Here's the person buying up ammo shares,
And here he is paying for his prayers
Well what do we see happening. If I don't pay my mortgage I can get A, Mortgage mod. B. free rent for 6+ months especially if the president invokes another 90 day free ride. Lets try it with the credit cards! Enough people do it the banks cave and beg for a lower settlement! How about those car payments! In the mean time, I'm going to Disneyland and buy a funny hat with all the money I saved!
Just got back from the dentist, fixing a chipped tooth. At first they said yes, my tooth was indeed chipped, and come back later!!! I said nobody told me I'd have to come back later, so they squeezed me in. It really didn't hurt, but everytime he approached my face with his weapons of dental destruction, I stiffen up like a board.
As part of my plans for the end of the world, I plan to have some more dental work that I've been putting off due to cowardice finished before September.
"We intend to defend ourselves, families, and property as is our right defined in the US Constitution..."
As soon as you pick up a gun you've lost. Even in the 18th century it didn't work, unless there was a state with an army, a bureaucracy and a diplomatic service to organize you and back you up. The only practical social defense that has a chance of working is political.
I don't think there's anything wrong with individual self-defense against other individuals, when there's no alternative. Past that, the only thing you're likely to accomplish to is to get yourself killed.
I could give specific reasons for the above - but I don't think I will.
Here'n muh hand is a gun and a knife,
tuh protect muh kids and pretty wife,
Therz a bad'un at my front door,
wantin' to take all an' mebbe more,
Now he's lyin' in blood on the floor,
An I'm a steamin' mad now,
cuz I gots to clean muh 44.
How would the purges in 1930's Russia have worked out if everyone had a gun and resisted just a little. This issue is described in great detail in volume I of Gulag Archapelago (sp?). Just throwing that out their. Also, I have used a gun for self-defense in Cleveland. Pointing in at a burglar is enough 99% of the time.
Just got back from the dentist, fixing a chipped tooth. At first they said yes, my tooth was indeed chipped, and come back later!!! I said nobody told me I'd have to come back later, so they squeezed me in. It really didn't hurt, but everytime he approached my face with his weapons of dental destruction, I stiffen up like a board.
"You can if they are breaking down your back door at 1:00 in the morning. "
Yes, but I don't think criminal intruders is what we were referring to. Personally, if I were living in an area where that was likely to happen I'd move somewhere else.
Deflationary Jane (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 12:44 pm
Bob,
How are the state cuts being felt out in your neck of the woods?
Barely a word said here but all the anger seems to be focused elsewhere at the moment: Yudof, new Chancellor money bags (sorry, forgot her name), and UCD paying for Michelle Obama's visit to Merced. Oh and big outrage at the local UCD PD which are now camping at every exit from the univ hoping for a little "ticket stimulus" fund infusion into their coffers.
Well, my dept. already had its layoff announcements last month (though nearly everyone's still here for a couple more weeks.) With a near-promise of more to come. And they abolished the staff for at least one department and folded it into another. Most of the other depts. have to cut, but are putting it off as long as possible.
I'd say that the zeitgeist here is Anticipation of Impending Doom. Like your place, everything's quiet. No open snarking.
The one big outrage was the employee appreciation picnic this week; they cut the # of food stations from three to one to save a few bucks, which meant a line several hundred yards long. The people I know who attended left in disgust. Typical UCSC: do a half-assed job, hope for the best -- and end up with a worse result than if you'd done nothing at all. We're going to see a lot more of that, I think.
Lucifer,
Brothers Karamazov I believe, devil didn't carry a watch. Been awhile since I read it, could be remembering wrong, but thought it was a nice contrast and touch stone to the watchmaker. Also love the "It's not God I don't accept, Alyosha, only I must respectfully return him the ticket."
Liz, I'm with ya. I did the same assessment and now go in for cleanings 3 times a year. I don't mind paying for the extra two if it keeps those damn drills away from me. The other upside is that I'll be better prepared if I end up loosing my dental ins. I approach healthcare the same way now that I'm no longer 30 and indestrucible.
Sometimes economic situations prevent moving to a nice area. When I was a poor student, I could only afford to share a house with 3 other students in a sketchy neighborhood in Cleveland. Our arsenal came in very handy a couple of times. Once the dirtbags figured out we were armed, we were left alone. Wish the world didn't work that way, but it does.
Yes, but I don't think criminal intruders is what we were referring to. Personally, if I were living in an area where that was likely to happen I'd move somewhere else.
Gee, pavel, I thought you liked America.
Actually, I think criminal intruders is exactly what we were referring to.
"How would the purges in 1930's Russia have worked out if everyone had a gun and resisted just a little. "
If they were individuals the armed forces would have annihilated them. If it were an organized putsch, it might have meant civil war. But there is no tradition of a putsch in modern Russia.
There were some limited uprisings in the old SU. They were put down with ferocity.
Under a more adverse scenario, which assumes a 10.3% unemployment rate at the end of 2010, banks would have to calculate two-year losses of up to 8.5% on their first-lien mortgage portfolios, 11% on home-equity lines of credit, 8% on commercial and industrial loans, 12% on commercial real-estate loans and 20% on credit-card portfolios, according to a confidential document the Federal Reserve gave banks in February that was viewed by The Wall Street Journal. Regulators are expected to have used other assumptions as well when measuring a bank's strength.
We've only had one robbery in the last 41 years. The people snuck in and out and took a couple of utterly
worthless things. We didn't know they'd been there until my hub went to put on his (cheap and worn out both)
watch & it wasn't there. An old ham radio was taken which he thought they thought was a CB radio, and which would
have been useless.
All in all, the best kind of robbery.
There was one before that, but the hub was in politics and it was political info that was stolen, nothing
very interesting. Glod knows, he had nothing of value in his apt at the time!!
bloomberg responded to my missive regarding SP500 PE being 4 times higher than reported with a disfunctional robot that essentially is asking me to prove the PE of the SP500.
here is their reply:
.
.
.
.
"Thank You for Your Feedback!
Feedback Status:
TicketID: W00344102610549233001
Status: Resolved
Summary: US Dot slides on Equity on Earning Value by Lynn Thmanson
LOG: 5/14/09 20:43:21 Your Initial Feedback
PE number in the report is actually 4 times higher than what we are reporting
on the website. Please look at this. Thanks you.
LOG: 5/15/09 15:56:16 Bloomberg Feedback Team
Hello: Can you provide specific information. What are you referring to. If
article, please advise title and correct name of reporter. Thank you.
Sincerely, Bloomberg Website Feedback Team
To update your feedback please reply in the space below:"
when i responded i got this:
"Server Error
This server has encountered an internal error which prevents it from fulfilling your request. The most likely cause is a misconfiguration. Please ask the administrator to look for messages in the server's error log. "
i got the same error yesterday on a different feedback page before i called them on the phone and talked to someone with a thick asian accent.
Doesn't anyone think these cc issuers have brought this on themselves. They have made the public dependent on credit and they wonder why defaults go up when they cut back people's credit in masse.
If they were individuals the armed forces would have annihilated them. If it were an organized putsch, it might have meant civil war. But there is no tradition of a putsch in modern Russia.
Yep. Revolutions against post-20th century standing armies are pointless. You will be eradicated. Quickly. Thomas Jefferson was right when he stated that he hoped we wouldn't go more than 20 years without a rebellion like the Shay's rebellion. In my mind, that's the only way to prevent the arm of the state from reaching a point where it is unassailable anymore.
the governator has raised the hypothetical prisoner release from 19,000 to 23,000. and i (along with many responding, apparently) am very much thinking defensively vis a vis the protection discussion.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 4:10 pm
If so, that's a different case. How often does that happen where you live?
Oh Pavel, you're such a puss. I just had to throw a random intruder out of my apartment at carbine point six months ago. A friend of mine was killed by three 16 y/os in a stolen jeep because he wouldn't give them his bookbag. This kind of shit happens every day. You just want an excuse to be a pacifist and you don't want to admit it's irrational and based in your religion.
The inability to defend yourself is not rational, and pushing your religion-based value judgements on others is just as offensive if you're a sheep-eyed Christer who wants us all to lay down and martyr ourselves as if you're a wahabbist fanantic.
An army that kills many civilians is going to have trouble feeding itself and having a functional economy afterwards.. It only works in the short term- not in any prolonged conflict, much less a civil war.
This discussion calls to mind the uprising in the Russian Parliament in 1993. With the power of the state against it, the tanks rolled up and blasted them into submission with cannon fire and machine guns.
Or think back to Budapest, 1956.
If you're talking about individual defense against criminals, that's a different matter, but only if you're trapped in an unstable and violent area.
There is a reason east europe has been a perpetually miserable place... if you believe life will always be bad, your mind cannot imagine other possibilities.
People deserve what they get..
//Some of whom will be agents provocateurs, double and triple agents and informers.//
An army that kills many civilians is going to have trouble feeding itself and having a functional economy afterwards.. It only works in the short term- not in any prolonged conflict, much less a civil war.
The Soviet Union did it pretty effectively for 75 years. That's longer than I'm willing to wait.
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 4:15 pm
I wonder what level of anger would justify killing another human being?
Would somebody stealing something from you in broad daylight be cause enough, to end their life...
It's surely not a legal reason. You only go weapons free where I'm from if the attack would (at minimum) cause you to perceive yourself as under threat of suffering injuries that would seriously impair a working individual from labor (agg assault) or otherwise offer serious chance of equivalent harm, and circumstances are such that you cannot retereat to perfect safety.
From my experience pointing guns at people, there is typically not a lot of anger involved. You have way too much going on to be angry.
"The inability to defend yourself is not rational, and pushing your religion-based value judgements on others is just as offensive if you're a sheep-eyed Christer who wants us all to lay down and martyr ourselves as if you're a wahabbist fanantic."
I've just said I don't oppose unavoidable individual defense. Nor does the Church oppose it.
I have known a few believers in and practitioners of civil disobedience, and I thought they had a lot of guts, more than me.
In the majority of cases people had a better life than under the czars.. I think you tend to forget that.. apart from stalins death camps- it was better than what preceded it.
//The Soviet Union did it pretty effectively for 75 years. That's longer than I'm willing to wait.//
The citizens never really got together.. too many mercantilists.
Lucifer,
Give me one example where an armed revolution has defeated a standing army since WWI.
Eventually, attrition will win out. Eventually. But you will have to wait a long time to see it happen. At least in Afghanistan, the Mujahadeen had a common enemy to rally against. Your neighbors are unlikely to join you in mass numbers in opposing the U.S. 3rd Cavalry, however.
In the majority of cases people had a better life than under the czars.. I think you tend to forget that.. apart from stalins death camps- it was better than what preceded it.
I'm sure those 10 million Ukrainians that Stalin starved to death would disagree.
Lucifer, I have the impression life in Tsarist Russia was little worse than what followed. The privations were severe and far from temporary. The country's cultural, religious and economic capital was stripped.
Recall, please, that by 1914, Diaghlev and Stravinski were the lions of Paris, Russia was the breadbasket of Europe, and its industrial capacity was increasing so rapidly that in 1913, the country's economic growth surpassed our own. By 1919, all this and more was undone.
I don't really want to be left out. Everybody is walking away from their credit card debt and I don't have any! I am going to go buy something expensive to max out my cards just so that I can participate in the great American credit card shredding party. Anything less is unamerican.
Yah. Apart from the death of 20 million people, the expulsion/flight of millions of others, the destruction of the entire intelligentsia, constant oppression and the constant fear for your life and that of your loved ones it was definitely a much better life than under the czars. Brilliant. May you live through a bloody civil war, hunger and a genocidal dictatorship..
This is a green shoot. People who default on their credit cards have more disposable cash to buy stuff, and once the bad debt is written off, they can more, bigger credit cards. It is all good. [/sarcasm]
so the banks raise rates, increase transaction fees, lower credit lines, in times of the lowest historical interest rates in history, maximizing their spreads and ensuring that they expose many more customers to defaults..... their behavior is insane and inane...
no rational person could pursue these policies and attempt to simultaneously justify their business model, and then lobby and complain about their situation. Congress if they can stop from being purchased long enough, by the banking lobby, and if they really cared about consumer welfare, should reintroduce usury laws Usury - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and lock in their spread, it will reduce the credit card defaults and put pressure on Banks to act in the public interest. so we get Jabber from DC but little substantial action.
Usury statutes in the United States
Each U.S. state has its own statute which dictates how much interest can be charged before it is considered usurious or unlawful.
If a lender charges above the lawful interest rate, a court will not allow the lender to sue to recover the debt because the interest rate was illegal anyway. In some states (such as New York) such loans are voided ab-initio[21]
However, there are separate rules applied to most banks. The U.S. Supreme Court held unanimously in the 1978 Marquette Nat. Bank of Minneapolis v. First of Omaha Service Corp. case that the National Banking Act of 1863 allowed nationally-chartered banks to charge the legal rate of interest in their state regardless of the borrower's state of residence.[22] In 1980, due to inflation, Congress passed the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act exempting federally chartered savings banks, installment plan sellers and chartered loan companies from state usury limits. This effectively overrode all state and local usury laws.[23][24] The 1968 Truth in Lending Act does not regulate rates, except in the cases of some mortgages, but it does require uniform or standardized disclosure of costs and charges.[25]
Record credit card defaults. Imagine that.
I am shocked that credit card holders might default.. hoocoodanode? Usurious interest rates and scam charges are immaterial..
Someone forgot to towel the pony.
Capitol One, my new bank, there is no where to run to but the mattress....
CR,
If an airplane's engines fail, does it's rate of descent not slow as it glides to 'reaches' the ground?
American Express writeoffs pass 10% in April
This explains consumer confidence. Consumers are taking their cues from the banking sector and maxing out their credit cards with no intention of repaying.
McNamara's Brand started out so innocently way back when...
(from Diner's Club page)
t's 1949. Businessman Frank McNamara schedules dinner at Major's Cabin Grill, a New York City restaurant. Dinner over, Frank realizes he has left his wallet in his other suit. His wife rescues him and pays. He resolves never to face this embarrassment again.
February 1950. McNamara and his partner Ralph Schneider return to Major's Cabin Grill. When the bill comes, McNamara presents a small, cardboard card, a Diners Club Card, and signs for the purchase. In the credit card industry, this event is known as the First Supper…
How the hell do these banks expect people to pay their CC's any way? They quit putting money in the kitchen ATM.
I used to get a few CC apps per day in the mail. My wife and I have great credit and both have our jobs. I get a few CC apps a week now. Much nicer. I dont havbe to empty my shredder as often.
What were the stress test assumptions for CC default rates?
What does "consumer confidence" mean anyway? I know a lot of consumers who now feel more confident about their ability to buy things they will need --- because they've stopped buying tons of useless shit they DON'T need.
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei,
The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
OK, so maybe it's true that banks can't afford to loan money to their existing customers if rates are capped at 15%.
So they just need to find a bunch of new customers, right? Virtuous people who always pay their debts. Shouldn't be so hard to find. In fact, I recently received a referral from a guy named Diogenes. I will let you know how that turns out.
Chase would be on that list too, if it wasn't for their habit of allowing their borrowers to skip payments all the time.
They should call it the Chase Pick-A-Pay Platinum.
"And the beat goes on ... "
DOOM DOOM DOOM... just kidding
Nuke,
Some numbers generated by beheaded chickens..
//What were the stress test assumptions for CC default rates?//
nova,
from last thread, umm, the media?
re- firearms, i heard on cnbc this a.m. that the gun industry is referring to the president as their salesman in chief. beretta's sales are up something like 66% since obama took office (if i remember the percentage correctly)...
"I get a few CC apps a week now. "
Can't be good for the postal service!
If record credit card defaults don't underscore the need to get credit flowing I don't know what does. Well, besides record foreclosures.
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei,
Why not call our current era 1980-2009 "Triumph des Scharlatan"?
Help me out here. Is this a green shoot? I mean seriously, it could have been worse.
Laissez les bon temps rouler
dumb question but - when is a credit card noted to be in default? is it just be late with one payment?
can't heloc our way out of the plastic, eh?
This must be one of the only two negative indicators conjure detected. Gosh I can only think of 20 or thirty more candidates for the remaining possibility.
Chase cut my 3% cash back on gas $ groceries. Course, I pay my balance monthly so
I may be a one off.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 3:20 pm
"The road to hell is paved with good intentions. "
Lucifer,
don't you mean "the road home ..."?
re- firearms, i heard on cnbc this a.m. that the gun industry is referring to the president as their salesman in chief.
riot, it won't be the President who's kicking down your front door.
riot- the unbeatable high
ammo is hard to find and has been. a lot of the more popular weapons are hard to come by. used gun market is getting more than what they were worth new. that kind of thing.
who toweled kermit today? looking like green roadkill
Riot - 12 gauge Winchester pump shotgun, .357 magnum Colt King Cobra... the 9 inch barrel model - gives you the option to shoot or club... For more serious work - HK 91, Ruger Mini30, etc... at least one with a high power scope...
It's going to be so much harder for the sheeple to live like millionaires unless we make houses more unaffordable and get credit flowing again.
Maybe the fed should offer helocs or ninja loans.
Shnaps,
As a kid I worked BAC collections. We used to age accounts all the time. 60 days past due? well, send us a payment and I'll bring you current. was a particularly useful tool if we were close to not making numbers.
Capital One gets it -- if you don't like the result, change the rules. I thought the others had learned this lesson by now.
Understanding how the average American consumer overspends, I think you'd have to be crazy to extend them unsecured credit in general, and double crazy to extend them unsecured credit while unemployment is soaring.
But is it a stabilizing record-high default?
Samdog,
Ideas like credit cards, environmentalism, deregulation started with reasonably good intentions.. look where we are now.
It's a dry heat default...
For Friday contemplation: Radiohead's FItter Happier...future tense or present past?
Fitter, happier, more productive,
comfortable,
not drinking too much,
regular exercise at the gym
(3 days a week),
getting on better with your associate employee contemporaries ,
at ease,
eating well
(no more microwave dinners and saturated fats),
a patient better driver,
a safer car
(baby smiling in back seat),
sleeping well
(no bad dreams),
no paranoia,
careful to all animals
(never washing spiders down the plughole),
keep in contact with old friends
(enjoy a drink now and then),
will frequently check credit at
(moral) bank (hole in the wall),
favors for favors,
fond but not in love,
charity standing orders,
on Sundays ring road supermarket
(no killing moths or putting boiling water on the ants),
car wash
(also on Sundays),
no longer afraid of the dark or midday shadows
nothing so ridiculously teenage and desperate,
nothing so childish - at a better pace,
slower and more calculated,
no chance of escape,
now self-employed,
concerned (but powerless),
an empowered and informed member of society
(pragmatism not idealism),
will not cry in public,
less chance of illness,
tires that grip in the wet
(shot of baby strapped in back seat),
a good memory,
still cries at a good film,
still kisses with saliva,
no longer empty and frantic
like a cat
tied to a stick,
that's driven into
frozen winter shit
(the ability to laugh at weakness),
calm,
fitter,
healthier and more productive
a pig
in a cage
on antibiotics.
Sample looping in background:
[This is the Panic Office, section nine-seventeen may have been hit. Activate the following procedure.]
[one option on the table is the release of 19,000 "non-violent" state prisoners]
Not violent crimes, YET. What will these wards of the State of CA do exactly, when they hit the street ? Find a good paying job, in CA ?
Skills they learned while encarcerated will come in handy. I fully expect a jump in both violent and non-violent crimes if criminals aer released. Maybe Ahnold can cut law enforcement too - cut back on arrests/convictions to keep the prison population down. Ship to other states! Lots of great ideas!
Right on cue: Late market rally!
Lucifer,
So did communism, fascism.. it just happened that utopian ideas that are adjusted to the reality of human behavior end in disaster.
Didn't Chase pick up Wamus cc division? I seem to remember them handling out credit like candy, especially to the under 30 crowd.
"But is it a stabilizing record-high default? "
A slowdown in the rate of growth counts for progress these days.
Case in point. I was going over a mortgage pool this morning with some folks in a meeting. 90+ delinquencies increased to 14% from 13% the month earlier, and 12% the month before that (in rough numbers).
One could say the rate of increase was 1% this month, in line with last month.
OR, one could say 90+ increased at a rate of 14/13 = 7.7%, versus 13/12 = 8.33%, so the rate of increase is slowing. GREEN SHOOT.
A rising denominator isn't a sign of a turnaround in my mind.
Chase = Capitol One
Do these numbers fall in the baseline or worst case Stress Test scenario's?
More things hitting that 10% depression threshhold, CR!
C'mon, say 'Uncle!'
"Didn't Chase pick up Wamus cc division?"
There was an article the other day with the numbers on the WM CC portfolio. It was awful. The reported JPM numbers usually don't include that portfolio, it seems like it is kind of an internal "bad bank" which has been segregated and is considered in runoff.
BUY signal!
Zombie consumers will get a bailout and stocks will soar!
My moment of clarity on consumer credit came back in the '80s, when I was a ringer in a focus group for people who carried month-to-month balances on multiple credit cards. (I needed the $50 and free lunch, a guy at the agency was a friend.) The lead researcher asked the group what they wanted in a card, and to a wo/man they said "higher limits." Not lower interest rates, higher limits. (I echoed the herd, of course.)
From that day on, I kinda knew all this would not end well.
"Right on cue: Late market rally! "
Can't have folks depressed going into the weekend, they need to spend,spend, spend.
Higher limits + lower payments = prosperity!
Well, at least the increase from March to April wasn't very significant. =/
The rate of default acceleration is declining...
California doesn't need a budget crisis to release prisoners.
The State is already facing a federal court order to do so:
JURIST - Paper Chase: Federal judges order California to reduce prison population
The "upside," if California loses on appeal, is that releasing 36,000 to 57,000 prisoners ought to help the budget deficit.
Either that or there will just be more guards per prisoner.
When I was 22 I bought a car with a credit card (downpayment). The rest was financed at 29% but the monthly payment was ok. The car salesman had me on his Christmas card list for a couple years after that.
"Maybe the fed should offer helocs or ninja loans"
Angry Saver, are you auditioning for the Federal Reserve again?
I agree.
BTW this is CNBC, are you sure you got the entire headline CR?
From CNBC: Credit Card Defaults Reach Record Highs in April Suggesting Economy Near Bottom
I find the obsession with firearms on the part of some here to be strange. You can't shoot your real problems.
Nancy Pelosi is a liar.
Panetta to CIA employees: We told Pelosi the truth - Glenn Thrush - POLITICO.com
The rate of default acceleration is declining...
The 5th derivative has reached an inflection point.
pavel.chichikov
Thats because you are not a real "American." I always thout the Russian obsession with authors who took 2 pages to describe what a minor character is wearing a little strange.
You can't shoot your real problems.
No, pavel, you can't shoot all your problems.
But you can shoot the one in front of you.
Bob,
How are the state cuts being felt out in your neck of the woods?
Barely a word said here but all the anger seems to be focused elsewhere at the moment: Yudof, new Chancellor money bags (sorry, forgot her name), and UCD paying for Michelle Obama's visit to Merced. Oh and big outrage at the local UCD PD which are now camping at every exit from the univ hoping for a little "ticket stimulus" fund infusion into their coffers.
Any of you listen to what Najarian said on CNBC this morning about options activity in the life insurers (was just back on, that is what reminded me). Apparently there was crazy activity yesterday, before the news broke about TARP, on MAY calls (you know, the ones that expire today).
looking like someone was tipped off.
this sort of BS really adds a lot of confidence to the markets.
but i guess one should expect that sort of corruption in a banana republic.
Pavel we dont intend to shoot our problems. We intend to defend ourselves, families, and property as is our right defined in the US Constitution...
And even if it wasnt in the constitution, I for one would be doing it anyway...
Thats because you are not a real "American." I always thout the Russian obsession with authors who took 2 pages to describe what a minor character is wearing a little strange.
Tolstoy could make a two-page description of someone washing a teacup spellbinding. Dostoevsky could make it terrifying.
Plus pavel watching the flame shoot out the barrel of your gun at the range is fun!
"I find the obsession with firearms on the part of some here to be strange. You can't shoot your real problems."
You've obviously never met my ex >; )
I called the AMEX folks last month and told the rep I did not want to renew--I was a member since 1976, never missed a payment and only had one blip with a Visa due to Capital One folks surface posting it to Europe. The AMEX rep wanted to know why I did not want to renew--I had not used the card in two years and only held it for the car rental insurance--no car owned here, thus no insurance. She sounded rather perplexed that I wanted to cancel the renewal, and she did not seem to understand that I felt paying $60.00 a year for the "privilege" of the green card.
Never have carried a balance on any card, don't own house or car (redundant), self-employed (low 20k Euro income with wife) waiting for a pension in Europe and all assets in cash, one child employed and through college, one granddaughter over some serious surgery, both in the US. I do not post to feel good about myself or boast just to indicate that it is possible to survive.
Dont forget Solzhynetsin (sp) - one of the best authors ever in my book...
Any of you listen to what Najarian said on CNBC this morning about options activity in the life insurers (was just back on, that is what reminded me). Apparently there was crazy activity yesterday, before the news broke about TARP, on MAY calls (you know, the ones that expire today).
looking like someone was tipped off.
But that would be illegal!
If it weren't for guns, the King of England could come right into your house and push you around. You want that to happen?
Seriously though, I own 4 guns.
You've obviously never met my ex >; )
"I've been missing you for so long, but my aim is getting better..."
I'm seeing the same thing with my Prosper "investments." I put a few $k in last year to see what it was like to be a lender. After making money initially, now I'm just breaking even as the defaults = interest. All prime borrowers with documented income streams... so much for FICO!
Can you poesy your real problems?
The paranoia
In California
runs deep
where life is cheap
Right on cue: FBI probes possible violations by SEC lawyers - U.S. business- msnbc.com
Weapons are necessary for harmony. Like stop signs and curbing in traffic.
Samurai wore two swords at all times and exuded martial spirit. Drawing their sword meant drawing blood. So they were careful to contain green shoots of turmoil without compromising swift justice.
They lamented death or injury to others as a failure of exquisitely formed rules of etiquette and diplomacy. Theirs was a separate class, with a demanding code of conduct. There was little tolerance of abuse. Dishonor was death at your own hands.
Every samurai was sanctioned with death powers over all subordinates. Many sheriffs, much fewer crimes. It is infused in Japanese society today. Behaviour such as has been seen in the USA financial system would have come with such shame and loss of face/society, that it would never have been contemplated. Family honor, once shamed, carries for generations.
Western civilization seems barbaric in comparison. This is an example of self-regulating law which WAS effective.
You can't shoot your real problems.
You can if they are breaking down your back door at 1:00 in the morning. You can shoot your problems to hell.
Wait, I just realized I can't eat ammo. Never mind. I'm putting my money back into financial stocks. I can eat financial stocks if things get bad.
Dostoevsky was brilliant....Lucifer, are you wearing a watch yet?
A little more Friday blues... Born under a bad sign - Albert King...
YouTube - Albert King - Born Under a Bad Sign (Live in Sweden 1980)
Does anyone offer a "Green Shoots" card?
Any of you listen to what Najarian said on CNBC this morning about options activity in the life insurers (was just back on, that is what reminded me). Apparently there was crazy activity yesterday, before the news broke about TARP, on MAY calls (you know, the ones that expire today).
looking like someone was tipped off.
Interestingly, the insurers are pretty much down across the board after opening way up. Call volumes aren't that high today, so maybe all those who bought on the insider info were the suckers after all?
Vonbek777,
Why.. wearing a watch? FFDIC time?
//Lucifer, are you wearing a watch yet?//
"If it weren't for guns, the King of England could come right into your house and push you around. You want that to happen?"
Oh you made me chuckle... ever fire a black powder weapon? (but then again I'm a notoriously slow loader)
Does anyone offer a "Green Shoots" card?
The NRA should. Eco friendly and extra points for purchasing gear.
Here's the gun store, and here's the sheeple
Open the door and see all the people.
Here's the person buying up ammo shares,
And here he is paying for his prayers
Well what do we see happening. If I don't pay my mortgage I can get A, Mortgage mod. B. free rent for 6+ months especially if the president invokes another 90 day free ride. Lets try it with the credit cards! Enough people do it the banks cave and beg for a lower settlement! How about those car payments! In the mean time, I'm going to Disneyland and buy a funny hat with all the money I saved!
Just got back from the dentist, fixing a chipped tooth. At first they said yes, my tooth was indeed chipped, and come back later!!! I said nobody told me I'd have to come back later, so they squeezed me in. It really didn't hurt, but everytime he approached my face with his weapons of dental destruction, I stiffen up like a board.
As part of my plans for the end of the world, I plan to have some more dental work that I've been putting off due to cowardice finished before September.
I have a black powder pistol. A 1851 Navy. Beautiful gun that points extremely well.
weapons of dental destruction - lol...
"We intend to defend ourselves, families, and property as is our right defined in the US Constitution..."
As soon as you pick up a gun you've lost. Even in the 18th century it didn't work, unless there was a state with an army, a bureaucracy and a diplomatic service to organize you and back you up. The only practical social defense that has a chance of working is political.
I don't think there's anything wrong with individual self-defense against other individuals, when there's no alternative. Past that, the only thing you're likely to accomplish to is to get yourself killed.
I could give specific reasons for the above - but I don't think I will.
lawyerliz: Better get it done before we have mandatory single-payer health care. We know how well the dental coverage works in Europe.
Here'n muh hand is a gun and a knife,
tuh protect muh kids and pretty wife,
Therz a bad'un at my front door,
wantin' to take all an' mebbe more,
Now he's lyin' in blood on the floor,
An I'm a steamin' mad now,
cuz I gots to clean muh 44.
" ever fire a black powder weapon?"
Once.
"black powder" & "weapon" is an oxymoron.
Well Pavel I would rather live out my days in peace and quiet, undisturbed... But if something else happens, at least I have options...
How would the purges in 1930's Russia have worked out if everyone had a gun and resisted just a little. This issue is described in great detail in volume I of Gulag Archapelago (sp?). Just throwing that out their. Also, I have used a gun for self-defense in Cleveland. Pointing in at a burglar is enough 99% of the time.
Just got back from the dentist, fixing a chipped tooth. At first they said yes, my tooth was indeed chipped, and come back later!!! I said nobody told me I'd have to come back later, so they squeezed me in. It really didn't hurt, but everytime he approached my face with his weapons of dental destruction, I stiffen up like a board.
Did your dentist look like this?
YouTube - Is it safe?
Or this?
YouTube - Dentist! from Little Shop of Horrors movie
"You can if they are breaking down your back door at 1:00 in the morning. "
Yes, but I don't think criminal intruders is what we were referring to. Personally, if I were living in an area where that was likely to happen I'd move somewhere else.
I will be the third to ask in this thread... anyone know where these numbers rank in the base to more adverse shenanigans?
I meant there, not their. Damn.
I wonder if our peers in the first world are laying in stocks of knives, blackjacks and crossbows, in lieu of high calibered easily concealed weapons?
Deflationary Jane (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 12:44 pm
Bob,
How are the state cuts being felt out in your neck of the woods?
Barely a word said here but all the anger seems to be focused elsewhere at the moment: Yudof, new Chancellor money bags (sorry, forgot her name), and UCD paying for Michelle Obama's visit to Merced. Oh and big outrage at the local UCD PD which are now camping at every exit from the univ hoping for a little "ticket stimulus" fund infusion into their coffers.
Well, my dept. already had its layoff announcements last month (though nearly everyone's still here for a couple more weeks.) With a near-promise of more to come. And they abolished the staff for at least one department and folded it into another. Most of the other depts. have to cut, but are putting it off as long as possible.
I'd say that the zeitgeist here is Anticipation of Impending Doom. Like your place, everything's quiet. No open snarking.
The one big outrage was the employee appreciation picnic this week; they cut the # of food stations from three to one to save a few bucks, which meant a line several hundred yards long. The people I know who attended left in disgust. Typical UCSC: do a half-assed job, hope for the best -- and end up with a worse result than if you'd done nothing at all. We're going to see a lot more of that, I think.
Lucifer,
Brothers Karamazov I believe, devil didn't carry a watch. Been awhile since I read it, could be remembering wrong, but thought it was a nice contrast and touch stone to the watchmaker. Also love the "It's not God I don't accept, Alyosha, only I must respectfully return him the ticket."
Liz, I'm with ya. I did the same assessment and now go in for cleanings 3 times a year. I don't mind paying for the extra two if it keeps those damn drills away from me. The other upside is that I'll be better prepared if I end up loosing my dental ins. I approach healthcare the same way now that I'm no longer 30 and indestrucible.
Pavel:
Sometimes economic situations prevent moving to a nice area. When I was a poor student, I could only afford to share a house with 3 other students in a sketchy neighborhood in Cleveland. Our arsenal came in very handy a couple of times. Once the dirtbags figured out we were armed, we were left alone. Wish the world didn't work that way, but it does.
No, my dentist is a pleasant oriental looking man, that I wouldn't recognize on the street, 'cause he had a mask on,
virtually the whole time.
"looking like someone was tipped off.
But that would be illegal! "
Uh huh. SEC lawyers in on it?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124241028545124563.html
Yes, but I don't think criminal intruders is what we were referring to. Personally, if I were living in an area where that was likely to happen I'd move somewhere else.
Gee, pavel, I thought you liked America.
Actually, I think criminal intruders is exactly what we were referring to.
"How would the purges in 1930's Russia have worked out if everyone had a gun and resisted just a little. "
If they were individuals the armed forces would have annihilated them. If it were an organized putsch, it might have meant civil war. But there is no tradition of a putsch in modern Russia.
There were some limited uprisings in the old SU. They were put down with ferocity.
"Pointing in at a burglar is enough 99% of the time."
Yes.
But not living in Cleveland is even better.
Vonbek777,
Interesting point.. I have to say that I am enjoying the collapse of bullshit..
Whether it is scientific bullshit, economic bull shit, art appreciation bullshit, medical bullshit.. there is only place for bullshit.
Under a more adverse scenario, which assumes a 10.3% unemployment rate at the end of 2010, banks would have to calculate two-year losses of up to 8.5% on their first-lien mortgage portfolios, 11% on home-equity lines of credit, 8% on commercial and industrial loans, 12% on commercial real-estate loans and 20% on credit-card portfolios, according to a confidential document the Federal Reserve gave banks in February that was viewed by The Wall Street Journal. Regulators are expected to have used other assumptions as well when measuring a bank's strength.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 3:41 pm
I find the obsession with firearms on the part of some here to be strange. You can't shoot your real problems.
No, just the minor, incidental random encounters that can otherwise end your existence.
pavel.chichikov,
If you have enough individuals with guns, you will find leaders.
"Actually, I think criminal intruders is exactly what we were referring to."
If so, that's a different case. How often does that happen where you live?
There's more than a few of you that so desperately want to use your weapons in anger, Johnny got his gun types.
"Sometimes economic situations prevent moving to a nice area. "
I'm aware of that.
pavel, it hasn't happened yet. I just don't know on which day it might happen and I wouldn't mind being prepared.
ShadowInventory,
she lies like a rug....
We've only had one robbery in the last 41 years. The people snuck in and out and took a couple of utterly
worthless things. We didn't know they'd been there until my hub went to put on his (cheap and worn out both)
watch & it wasn't there. An old ham radio was taken which he thought they thought was a CB radio, and which would
have been useless.
All in all, the best kind of robbery.
There was one before that, but the hub was in politics and it was political info that was stolen, nothing
very interesting. Glod knows, he had nothing of value in his apt at the time!!
"If you have enough individuals with guns, you will find leaders."
Some of whom will be agents provocateurs, double and triple agents and informers.
bloomberg responded to my missive regarding SP500 PE being 4 times higher than reported with a disfunctional robot that essentially is asking me to prove the PE of the SP500.
here is their article with the erroneous info:
U.S. Stocks Slide From Four-Month High on Earnings Valuations - Bloomberg.com
i don't think they really want to correct it.
here is their reply:
.
.
.
.
"Thank You for Your Feedback!
Feedback Status:
TicketID: W00344102610549233001
Status: Resolved
Summary: US Dot slides on Equity on Earning Value by Lynn Thmanson
LOG: 5/14/09 20:43:21 Your Initial Feedback
PE number in the report is actually 4 times higher than what we are reporting
on the website. Please look at this. Thanks you.
LOG: 5/15/09 15:56:16 Bloomberg Feedback Team
Hello: Can you provide specific information. What are you referring to. If
article, please advise title and correct name of reporter. Thank you.
Sincerely, Bloomberg Website Feedback Team
To update your feedback please reply in the space below:"
when i responded i got this:
"Server Error
This server has encountered an internal error which prevents it from fulfilling your request. The most likely cause is a misconfiguration. Please ask the administrator to look for messages in the server's error log. "
i got the same error yesterday on a different feedback page before i called them on the phone and talked to someone with a thick asian accent.
I wonder what level of anger would justify killing another human being?
Would somebody stealing something from you in broad daylight be cause enough, to end their life...
Doesn't anyone think these cc issuers have brought this on themselves. They have made the public dependent on credit and they wonder why defaults go up when they cut back people's credit in masse.
If they were individuals the armed forces would have annihilated them. If it were an organized putsch, it might have meant civil war. But there is no tradition of a putsch in modern Russia.
Yep. Revolutions against post-20th century standing armies are pointless. You will be eradicated. Quickly. Thomas Jefferson was right when he stated that he hoped we wouldn't go more than 20 years without a rebellion like the Shay's rebellion. In my mind, that's the only way to prevent the arm of the state from reaching a point where it is unassailable anymore.
talk to the hand because the hand understands
pavel.chichikov,
the governator has raised the hypothetical prisoner release from 19,000 to 23,000. and i (along with many responding, apparently) am very much thinking defensively vis a vis the protection discussion.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 4:10 pm
If so, that's a different case. How often does that happen where you live?
Oh Pavel, you're such a puss. I just had to throw a random intruder out of my apartment at carbine point six months ago. A friend of mine was killed by three 16 y/os in a stolen jeep because he wouldn't give them his bookbag. This kind of shit happens every day. You just want an excuse to be a pacifist and you don't want to admit it's irrational and based in your religion.
The inability to defend yourself is not rational, and pushing your religion-based value judgements on others is just as offensive if you're a sheep-eyed Christer who wants us all to lay down and martyr ourselves as if you're a wahabbist fanantic.
TCA,
An army that kills many civilians is going to have trouble feeding itself and having a functional economy afterwards.. It only works in the short term- not in any prolonged conflict, much less a civil war.
"But if something else happens, at least I have options... "
Life is not a Hollywood action flick, Walter.
This discussion calls to mind the uprising in the Russian Parliament in 1993. With the power of the state against it, the tanks rolled up and blasted them into submission with cannon fire and machine guns.
Or think back to Budapest, 1956.
If you're talking about individual defense against criminals, that's a different matter, but only if you're trapped in an unstable and violent area.
pavel.chichikov,
There is a reason east europe has been a perpetually miserable place... if you believe life will always be bad, your mind cannot imagine other possibilities.
People deserve what they get..
//Some of whom will be agents provocateurs, double and triple agents and informers.//
So many Walter Mitty Sobchaks out there, why's that?
"How often does that happen where you live?"
It happens a lot less in places where hand guns (and assault weapons) are illegal.
An army that kills many civilians is going to have trouble feeding itself and having a functional economy afterwards.. It only works in the short term- not in any prolonged conflict, much less a civil war.
The Soviet Union did it pretty effectively for 75 years. That's longer than I'm willing to wait.
pavel.chichikov,
In both cases the army was funded by a functional entity with a large economy behind it.. I am talking about civil war like conditions.
OK Sheila darlin'... TIME TO SHUT DOWN SOME BANKS !
TCA,
The citizens never really got together.. too many mercantilists.
and they did not kill nearly enough to screw the economy.
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 4:15 pm
I wonder what level of anger would justify killing another human being?
Would somebody stealing something from you in broad daylight be cause enough, to end their life...
It's surely not a legal reason. You only go weapons free where I'm from if the attack would (at minimum) cause you to perceive yourself as under threat of suffering injuries that would seriously impair a working individual from labor (agg assault) or otherwise offer serious chance of equivalent harm, and circumstances are such that you cannot retereat to perfect safety.
From my experience pointing guns at people, there is typically not a lot of anger involved. You have way too much going on to be angry.
"The inability to defend yourself is not rational, and pushing your religion-based value judgements on others is just as offensive if you're a sheep-eyed Christer who wants us all to lay down and martyr ourselves as if you're a wahabbist fanantic."
I've just said I don't oppose unavoidable individual defense. Nor does the Church oppose it.
I have known a few believers in and practitioners of civil disobedience, and I thought they had a lot of guts, more than me.
TCA ,
In the majority of cases people had a better life than under the czars.. I think you tend to forget that.. apart from stalins death camps- it was better than what preceded it.
//The Soviet Union did it pretty effectively for 75 years. That's longer than I'm willing to wait.//
Byz,
Those are your personal rules of engagement, but the rules are quite flexible amongst the other Walter Mitty Sobchaks, right?
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/15/2009 - 4:27 pm reply Ignore user Byz,
Those are your personal rules of engagement
No, those are the state's rules of engagement.
TCA,
The citizens never really got together.. too many mercantilists.
Lucifer,
Give me one example where an armed revolution has defeated a standing army since WWI.
Eventually, attrition will win out. Eventually. But you will have to wait a long time to see it happen. At least in Afghanistan, the Mujahadeen had a common enemy to rally against. Your neighbors are unlikely to join you in mass numbers in opposing the U.S. 3rd Cavalry, however.
In the majority of cases people had a better life than under the czars.. I think you tend to forget that.. apart from stalins death camps- it was better than what preceded it.
I'm sure those 10 million Ukrainians that Stalin starved to death would disagree.
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei,
i'm starting to think i'm losing my bet on 4 for bff..... but i will keep the faith, seems like they're announcing them later and later these days....
What's the Over/Under for "least costly option for FDIC" on BKUNA
(BK at the front of the ticker shoulda been a tip-off)
Lucifer, I have the impression life in Tsarist Russia was little worse than what followed. The privations were severe and far from temporary. The country's cultural, religious and economic capital was stripped.
Recall, please, that by 1914, Diaghlev and Stravinski were the lions of Paris, Russia was the breadbasket of Europe, and its industrial capacity was increasing so rapidly that in 1913, the country's economic growth surpassed our own. By 1919, all this and more was undone.
I don't really want to be left out. Everybody is walking away from their credit card debt and I don't have any! I am going to go buy something expensive to max out my cards just so that I can participate in the great American credit card shredding party. Anything less is unamerican.
Yah. Apart from the death of 20 million people, the expulsion/flight of millions of others, the destruction of the entire intelligentsia, constant oppression and the constant fear for your life and that of your loved ones it was definitely a much better life than under the czars. Brilliant. May you live through a bloody civil war, hunger and a genocidal dictatorship..
People deserve what they get.. - Lucifer
As soon as you pick up a gun you've lost.
That's why Washington had his men at Yorktown assault the British with bad free verse.
"That's why Washington had his men at Yorktown assault the British with bad free verse."
Washington had a government and an army to back him up.
This is a green shoot. People who default on their credit cards have more disposable cash to buy stuff, and once the bad debt is written off, they can more, bigger credit cards. It is all good. [/sarcasm]
so the banks raise rates, increase transaction fees, lower credit lines, in times of the lowest historical interest rates in history, maximizing their spreads and ensuring that they expose many more customers to defaults..... their behavior is insane and inane...
no rational person could pursue these policies and attempt to simultaneously justify their business model, and then lobby and complain about their situation. Congress if they can stop from being purchased long enough, by the banking lobby, and if they really cared about consumer welfare, should reintroduce usury laws Usury - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and lock in their spread, it will reduce the credit card defaults and put pressure on Banks to act in the public interest. so we get Jabber from DC but little substantial action.
Usury statutes in the United States
Each U.S. state has its own statute which dictates how much interest can be charged before it is considered usurious or unlawful.
If a lender charges above the lawful interest rate, a court will not allow the lender to sue to recover the debt because the interest rate was illegal anyway. In some states (such as New York) such loans are voided ab-initio[21]
However, there are separate rules applied to most banks. The U.S. Supreme Court held unanimously in the 1978 Marquette Nat. Bank of Minneapolis v. First of Omaha Service Corp. case that the National Banking Act of 1863 allowed nationally-chartered banks to charge the legal rate of interest in their state regardless of the borrower's state of residence.[22] In 1980, due to inflation, Congress passed the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act exempting federally chartered savings banks, installment plan sellers and chartered loan companies from state usury limits. This effectively overrode all state and local usury laws.[23][24] The 1968 Truth in Lending Act does not regulate rates, except in the cases of some mortgages, but it does require uniform or standardized disclosure of costs and charges.[25]
Give me one example where an armed revolution has defeated a standing army since WWI.
China 1949
Cuba 1959