So I wonder when that starts affecting employment numbers. We are looking at a slowdown of 12% compared to last year. Logically, the industries that directly depend on purchase and refinance should shrink their employment workforce...
Well, a lot of the people involved are on commission/self employed. So my Wild A*@# guess is that first you will see a lot of people just taking a 12% paycut before you start to lose that 12% employment.
AD, I agree, but unfortunately this is all the data I have right now. The MBA charges for historical data (I'm cheap), but I'm trying to get a longer time series from another source.
Many thanks to whoever posted the MBA link. The data in the charts therein make me even more confident of my prediction that as the ratio of new home purchases to household formation drops back to its early-90s levels, we will see new-home inventory balloon to 18 months or even more.
So I wonder when that starts affecting employment numbers. We are looking at a slowdown of 12% compared to last year. Logically, the industries that directly depend on purchase and refinance should shrink their employment workforce...
Well, a lot of the people involved are on commission/self employed. So my Wild A*@# guess is that first you will see a lot of people just taking a 12% paycut before you start to lose that 12% employment.
CR,
It would be more helpful to see these activity charts with 12 month time series.
From an avid reader. Thank you for the interesting posts and commentary.
-AD
AD, I agree, but unfortunately this is all the data I have right now. The MBA charges for historical data (I'm cheap), but I'm trying to get a longer time series from another source.
Best Wishes.
http://www.mbaa.org/files/Conferences/2006/Loan%20Production/Economics_Presentation.pdf
Anon,
Interesting aggregation of information in that link. Thanks for that.
Anon, Thanks! Excellent info.
Best Regards.
Many thanks to whoever posted the MBA link. The data in the charts therein make me even more confident of my prediction that as the ratio of new home purchases to household formation drops back to its early-90s levels, we will see new-home inventory balloon to 18 months or even more.
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