The American Dream WAS the Pandora's box! Too many achieved that one with easy credit and consumption with abandon. Now it is tipping over the whole country like too many people climbing madly up to a wooden high watchtower.
Most economists are still waiting the tower to right itself magically because there are those invisible coiled springs all around to balance it!
I have to tell you the travel/industry/tourism industry is desperate. I got great tickets to Boston, awesome hotel rates in Montreal and have three excellent car rentals to choose from. Since booking I've been inundated with "getaway specials" for everything from Cruises to dive tours.
As a frequent business traveler, I can tell you hotel occupancy for business has dropped dramatically. Last week I stayed at the Capitol Hilton downtown Washington DC for under $200/night. That was unheard of for the last 7-8 years. Also, my work inbox is innundated with offers from Hiltons, Doubletrees, Marriotts offering deals. Hawaii is really hurting and Vegas as well. More airline seats available on every flight whereas 2-3 years ago all middle seats were full.........
And the airlines have parked a lot of planes and reduced schedules too...
In GD1 Conrad Hilton erected walls with locking doors to wings of his hotels - locked them off so they didnt need to be cleaned etc... Waited for the turnaround...
I was wondering if the govt at some level is still issuing housing vouchers to the homeless... seems like they used to give them vouchers for cheap motels...
We've been driving out to Palm Springs every other weekend since February. We like to stay in a particular higher end resort hotel that has a long history of Hollywood associations. When we first started visiting many years ago, we typically paid around $250/night. This year, we haven't paid anything over $60-70/night for the same hotel via Priceline. And we haven't been getting closets either - this past weekend we got a suite, complete with a separate bedroom & living room.
While it's bitchin' to get a cheap rate at a very beautiful resort, it's sort of sad and lonely since we're typically the only ones there. Easter weekend showed a little spunk, and resembled prior years for at least one day, but then everybody split back to OC & SD, once again leaving the place like a proverbial ghost town. Boy, do I ever miss the good 'ole days when multiple families would pile out there, with hubby pulling in the big r/e bucks and every one sharing stories around the pool of flips, upgrades & private schools.
Not to dampen everyone's spirits or anything, but the other distressing element are the endless blocks of vacant development projects & empty restaurants - it almost makes one want to eat in. By way of example, poor Lumpy's used to have a prime, albeit busy/older location, but made the jump down the road to a brand new development that has turned out to be a dead mall.
I think we're gonna start staying at the beach in our own neighborhood. At least the younger kids still seem to be happy & cheerful, since they have no clue what is in store for them.
I stayed at the Sheraton in Austin for a week. I knew things had changed when as I walked in I passed 2 guys in livery standing around out front and 2 more greeted me before I had cleared the doors. I was the only person in the lobby then also. One of them held my elevator and said "if I needed anything - just call him personally." I think the "anything" covered more than fruit baskets.
Forget Zombie Banks and Businesses, what about the real Zombies?
Over 30 million (so perhaps 50 million people?) exist only because of getting food stamps. (they used to be in telltale script form, but now it looks like a credit card)
They've been Zombies for an awful long time now...
By any standard, new, old or ancient, hospitality is now solidly in the red.
Not familiar enough with per-room rates distributed nationally to comment on that, but occupancy says they're now below break-even, collectively. Probably rather far below.
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 6:00 pm
Apartment building in my city used to be a crack house now an empty Luxury Condo building in a sketchy neighborhood. Who knew?
Weird, it just occured to me. A million years ago in Asia as a young man employed by Uncle Sam I found the US Dollar was king. I was getting drunk, stoned, and laid on under $15.00 and I drank a lot back then.
Flash forward.
Having cash in America soon will be king again.
That is really depressing on a lot of levels. Jeebus, we may end up having the Chinese book sex tours here.
May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Mississippi’s pension system, the 65th largest in the U.S., has emerged as one of the nation’s most aggressive institutional litigants against companies it says committed securities fraud.
The Public Employees’ Retirement System of Mississippi is involved in at least 21 active federal securities-fraud class actions. It’s a lead plaintiff, either on its own or as part of an investor group, in at least 11 of them, including its May 12 appointment to co-manage litigation against Satyam Computer Services Ltd., the software-services provider at the center of India’s biggest corporate fraud inquiry.
@CR - I mentioned just that to my wife last weekend. I sure as hope our particular place doesn't shut down, but it's seems inevitable that a huge swath of leveraged assets are gonna go BK. With summer coming on in the desert (low season), it doesn't seem likely they'll even bother to stay open until next spring, and then only with a skeleton staff to try and recoup some cash flow for the bond holders, er, new owners.
soon? you'd be surprised the type of discounts people will give for cash these days.
That's why you can expect the government to eliminate cash sometime soon. Drive everything to electronic debit and credit cards in an attempt to stifle the underground economy.
Ted Koeppel had a tv show on China last year, and the image of 4 men breaking apart cement with sledgehammers to get to the rebar within, for the princely sum of 50 cents an hour for their labors didn't so much shock me, as their smiles that crossed language barriers to tell me that they were just happy to have a job.
broward, just saw that ... talk about "shadow inventory"!
Snerf, yeah - I've seen it before. The debtholders take over, but the properties are still cash flow negative - so they just shut them down until the economy improves.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 1:58 pm I Since booking I've been inundated with "getaway specials" for everything from Cruises to dive tours.
And i look forward to my Mirage/Ceasers/all vegas spam discounts twice a day in my in box... figure once they might actually make it worth my while to go...sneak in a real good deal, free room and food and airline for 4 if you promise to gamble and lose... if its all not in the same day, hell i can accomodate...
"More than 30 percent of homeowners said they would be likely to put their houses up for sale at the first sign of a market rebound"
I believe strongly that there is a shadow inventory that is much greater than conventionally believed. I'm not sure how trusted Zillow's research is, however. If the CEO hadn't used the word 'zestimates' a couple of times (within the first minute), I might have more confidence.
"A good part of the jump was from states reporting an increase in auto-related claims, a Labor official said without providing a more precise estimate."
Hah! My city gov't is patting itself on the back for greenlighting a seaside high-rise hotel NOW. To bring in those tourism bucks/hotel tax revenue. Is there something about a city council seat that kills brain cells?
nova (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 11:18 am reply Ignore user
Basel Too,
I don't mean 20% off a room. I mean people selling their souls - their dignity - theirr beanie baby collections - just to eat.
I've been adding aggressively to my DVD position recently. Averaging $2.34/title. What? Why are you looking at me funny? You don't dollar cost average track your purchases?
(630 titles, insurance replacement price $12k+) What? You don't track that either?
nova (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 2:16 pm reply
"May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Mississippi’s pension system, the 65th largest in the U.S., has emerged as one of the nation’s most aggressive institutional litigants against companies it says committed securities fraud."
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p>
Securities fraud litigation: the new road to riches for the John Edwards crowd ... little effort involved.
Comrade Dazed and Amused (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 2:19 pm reply Ignore user Having cash in America soon will be king again.
soon? you'd be surprised the type of discounts people will give for cash these days.
amazing what the price ends up going on the sales invoice when you pay cash as well, the seller needs a cpl of g's to go into his pocket..... hell yes, now i have the sellers of discrentionary items begging me... sweet...
We're looking at going to Disneyland in the fall. In the past, we've always stayed at the Anaheim Sheraton, but with the cratering in the hospitality industry, we're thinking about finally staying at the Disneyland Hotel or the Grand Californian. Any advice on getting the best deal possible at one of those?
Some people here have been talking about the building shadow inventory for years. It is especially hard on the bubble zones. Every year that goes by another "last kid" graduates high school/college and those parents are more than ready to ring the register. My canary is the San Diego region. They are about to see demographic dislocations not seen for 70 plus years.
"That's why you can expect the government to eliminate cash sometime soon. Drive everything to electronic debit and credit cards in an attempt to stifle the underground economy."
Interesting science fiction concept. No, really, it would be an administrative technique in an age of strict social control.
My partner went to an event here in San Francisco and filled out one of those win a free trip forms they had at the door.
Well they called last week saying she had won a trip to either Vegas or San Diego, her choice, all she had to do was pay the tax on the package. So its round trip for two, hotel, for 3 days 2 nights. The travel agency it was through said for her to decide which location she wanted and to come by Saturday, last Saturday, to pick up the tickets and pay the tax.
We talked about it, neither of us desiring to go to Vegas or San Diego, we were just in the San Diego area a few months ago. So she didn't go. They have been calling three times a night this week, we like everyone else screen calls.
Was kind of amazed until I read some of the comments here, guess they are that desperate...
"More than 30 percent of homeowners said they would be likely to put their houses up for sale at the first sign of a market rebound"
I think these are people that don't feel comfortable with defaulting, but are struggling to make ends meet. With layoffs some folks that weren't looking to sell prior may be now.
Also rumors of widespread google failures, although it's working for me but Verizon has seemed uncommonly slow the past couple of days. Perhaps a traffic issue from panic reading.
I have a close relative that was responsible for the design of a large restaurant/club in Vegas that was part of a hotel. It was the pretty unique high budget concept and was the focus of his life for quite some time.
Toward the end everything turned out better than expected and it seemed all that money and effort was well spent.
TCA (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 11:27 am reply Ignore user
We're looking at going to Disneyland in the fall. In the past, we've always stayed at the Anaheim Sheraton, but with the cratering in the hospitality industry, we're thinking about finally staying at the Disneyland Hotel or the Grand Californian. Any advice on getting the best deal possible at one of those?
Depending upon your length of stay consider season ticket purchases and take advantage of the associated stay at the park deals. Yes, I have an annual pass and was there just 4 days ago. The visitor mix was interesting. Fewer "European" or "Asian" and more Hispanic and Pacific crescent looking attendees.
The Californian is an "event" stay. You pay more but IMO get the better experience. Besides, there is a back door to California Adventure and it opens early.
I just completed my cross country trip from MA to Arizona and back. Stayed at a lot of motel 6's. Very clean, nice rooms, free internet. Nothing over $40 per night. The place I stayed at in Phoenix was very large, had a kitchen, and went for $35 per night. I compared these places to Comfort Inn, Holiday Inn, etc. The "higher end" places wanted $70 per night to stay in the middle of nowhere. How are these places staying in business? Noticed a lot of empty parking lots, too. Does anyone know the break-even for an average hotel/motel? The fixed costs must be huge (electricity, water, tax, etc). Haven't noticed a lot of closed down hotels yet. That maybe the next sign of distress (like empty strip malls).
Expect a bunch of small to midsize daily newspapers to fold in the wake of these Chrysler and GM dealership closings. Television and radio will also get hammered with layoffs.
"That's why you can expect the government to eliminate cash sometime soon. Drive everything to electronic debit and credit cards in an attempt to stifle the underground economy."
Cash serves no purpose to the powers that be. It only accounts for a tiny percentage of transactions nowadays, and any preponderance of printing will be very obvious, and their game would more closely resemble what went on in Mexico in the 1970's to 1990's, when the Peso not being backed by anything, went from:
12.5 Pesos to the $ in 1975
to
over 10,000 Pesos to the $ in 1992
The Hyperinflation devaluation next door that nobody ever talks about...
Imagine you were a middle-class Mexican with 100,000 Pesos in the bank in 1975?
1975 Value in USD $8,000
1992 value in USD $10
Why do you think there are so many "illegals" in our country the past 25 years?
The entire country (save those that had non-Peso assets) got wiped out.
I just paid $18 in cash at a supermarket, and the check out clerk seemed unsurprised. But the 20 dollar bill I paid with came from an ATM. The purchases were registered on the store's inventory software, but not elsewhere. Do you think anyone would care that I purchased a baguette, veal cutlet and a tub of chicken BBQ today? If so, why?
May 14 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama said U.S. long- term debt is “unsustainable” and pledged to work with Congress to shore up entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare.
“We can’t keep on just borrowing from China,” Obama said in response to a question at a town hall event in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, outside Albuquerque. “Or borrowing from other countries.” He said interest on that debt “means we are mortgaging our children’s future.” Other countries also may “get tired of buying our debt, and when that happens we will really have to raise interest rates to be able to borrow,” Obama said.
What happened??? Where they able to book the Backstreet Boys as planned?
Nothing. They opened but business was terrible.
I recall this particular relative of mine became seriously depressed after the whole thing and eventually left Vegas saying it was vile and superficial (like he didn't know that before). Life went on...
Kohl's Is Expanding In Anticipation Of Economy's Recovery
"NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Kohl's Corp. (KSS) is eyeing more expansion, in addition to improving existing stores, as a strategy for coming out of the recession ahead of competitors and remaining there."
Up 60% off the lows is this the Shorting opportunity of the year?
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 2:34 pm reply
Rumors of major bank failure, choose your thread.
Also rumors of widespread google failures, although it's working for me but Verizon has seemed uncommonly slow the past couple of days. Perhaps a traffic issue from panic reading.
_ _ _ _ _ _
Broward,
RE bank failure, we need some tragi-comic relief to shake the markets out of their sweet-dreams world.
RE Google crash, that happened to me this morning -- have Google search as my home page, when it opened it took about five clicks (closing the browser first as error message suggested) of the news link to open G NEWS site! Never seen that before.
I have been an expat living in Mexico since 1994. I lived through the peso devaluation of '94, losing all of my US assets and credit in the process.
Mexico used to be an all cash country. EVERYTHING was paid in cash, even commercial transactions. Since 95, the government has been slowly working to move more and more transactions towards debit cards, and eliminate cash transactions. The motivation has been to increase the tax base, and eliminate the informal economy. I can see the US government doing the same thing as the underground economy grows. It's only a matter of time.
Do you think anyone would care that I purchased a baguette, veal cutlet and a tub of chicken BBQ today?
One veal cutlet and a single baguette? Single man, lives alone, has some disposable income, age probably between 35 and 55 but that's not so certain. Decent chance he's an immigrant from Europe.
The government couldn't care less but this is useful marketing information without a doubt.
the mervyns that went bankrupt near my apartment, last year in the fall, is already a brand new kohls. I think they are just about to open. they snapped that open spot up real fast.
We've been to Disneyland twice and Disneyworld 4 times in the past 6 years.
This year was our second Disneyland visit. First time around we stayed at a Best Western within walking distance of the park. 2-room kids suite type of thing.
This time, we stayed on property at the Paradise Pier hotel (just across the street from the Grand Californian).
If you have kids (we do), staying on property for at least a couple days is cool; character breakfasts, back-door park access, etc.
Otherwise, it's just a REALLY EXPENSIVE hotel.
Animal Kingdom in Disney World was very cool; we had giraffes outside our balcony!
Usually, we rent a house for our Florida Disney World trips, much cheaper, lots more space, etc.
Disneyland seems to have more "local people" at the parks than DisneyWorld. Maybe because no one lives near DW, and DL is right in the middle of whatever that town is called.
BTW, I work in a resort. The business is not cratering everywhere.
It's cyclical. Sometimes you get a good deal, sometimes you pay rack.
Most of the folks in my university town are anxious to learn spanish. They get a little flustered when I tell them it is more important to learn the language of your future masters. They get extremely flustered when I tell them that it will be essential for their daughters, expecially if they are attractive and blonde, to learn chinese. When they as why, I tell them of my experiences in Cebu and Taipei vis a vis Japanese businessmen. They get the message.
Its true enough but to speak the truth there isn't enough work to go around. Blame technology if you like
As a society we have few choices --
We aren't China (so we can't NO CHILD FOR YOU, which would solve the whole issue in a generation) Stalin (no killing them with neglect) or Nazi Germany (no death camps thank god) -- that leaves us with only one real choice, paying them off is the least odious one since we don;t have the nerve to do social democracy or social capital.
If we choose not to help at all (or are forced to by bankruptcy) those hungry people will follow anyone and let me give you a hint, as a decent number of those people are vets or even active service -- its a national suicide ploy .
The next state that replaces this one may well be a nightmare state. or more likely a military dictatorship -- no one will have any economic freedom
I have no moral issue with this either. if you don't include people in your society than your rules don't apply to them -- Blow Back is a B*tch
The cash used in Mexico is going to be the U$D anyway -- if that option isn't available and taxes keep rising eventually you'll get work stoppages or some Grover Norquist "Gut the State" guy as President.
The only exception will be if the US goes full on social democracy -- maybe they can use keep it up but a US social democracy will be very interesting as it will be under constant pressure from immigration, a hungry military and the anti tax crowd. we don;t make enough wealth to tax it all away. what was learned in Sweden is when taxes reach a certain point no one bothers to earn more than that point and the system starts to implode
We may also see more than a few states refuse the federal system outright
Not as much as you think. The government would certainly prefer a cashless society but most poor people are unbanked. Also smaller merchants are going back to cash as card companies ding them with fees.I expect this to increase.
Cash won't be king anytime soon but if the recession keeps up fro more than 10 years it will be, we won't be able to keep the juice on to run all the computers or upkeep the cables and equipment
Forming a base before pushing higher.
This is the part where you can no longer see the coyote but can still hear the whistling.
"Thud" comes later.
(random thoughts from 2010)
Remember when they used to call Boarding Houses, Motels?
Just when you thought it was safe...
The American Dream WAS the Pandora's box! Too many achieved that one with easy credit and consumption with abandon. Now it is tipping over the whole country like too many people climbing madly up to a wooden high watchtower.
Most economists are still waiting the tower to right itself magically because there are those invisible coiled springs all around to balance it!
All we need is another 3.6 percent down on occupancy rates and hotels can start offering "Buy One, Get One Free!" promotions. Yeah, that's the ticket!
I have to tell you the travel/industry/tourism industry is desperate. I got great tickets to Boston, awesome hotel rates in Montreal and have three excellent car rentals to choose from. Since booking I've been inundated with "getaway specials" for everything from Cruises to dive tours.
As a frequent business traveler, I can tell you hotel occupancy for business has dropped dramatically. Last week I stayed at the Capitol Hilton downtown Washington DC for under $200/night. That was unheard of for the last 7-8 years. Also, my work inbox is innundated with offers from Hiltons, Doubletrees, Marriotts offering deals. Hawaii is really hurting and Vegas as well. More airline seats available on every flight whereas 2-3 years ago all middle seats were full.........
AMF +1
Eventually all the empty condo towers will be section 8 housing. "Obama Towers"?
Apartment building in my city used to be a crack house now an empty Luxury Condo building in a sketchy neighborhood. Who knew?
And the airlines have parked a lot of planes and reduced schedules too...
In GD1 Conrad Hilton erected walls with locking doors to wings of his hotels - locked them off so they didnt need to be cleaned etc... Waited for the turnaround...
Stayed @ a hotel in the Vegas area for $14.99 on a Sunday last month. comparable to a $75 Best Western room, decent.
I was wondering if the govt at some level is still issuing housing vouchers to the homeless... seems like they used to give them vouchers for cheap motels...
pretty soon...they pay you
We've been driving out to Palm Springs every other weekend since February. We like to stay in a particular higher end resort hotel that has a long history of Hollywood associations. When we first started visiting many years ago, we typically paid around $250/night. This year, we haven't paid anything over $60-70/night for the same hotel via Priceline. And we haven't been getting closets either - this past weekend we got a suite, complete with a separate bedroom & living room.
While it's bitchin' to get a cheap rate at a very beautiful resort, it's sort of sad and lonely since we're typically the only ones there. Easter weekend showed a little spunk, and resembled prior years for at least one day, but then everybody split back to OC & SD, once again leaving the place like a proverbial ghost town. Boy, do I ever miss the good 'ole days when multiple families would pile out there, with hubby pulling in the big r/e bucks and every one sharing stories around the pool of flips, upgrades & private schools.
Not to dampen everyone's spirits or anything, but the other distressing element are the endless blocks of vacant development projects & empty restaurants - it almost makes one want to eat in. By way of example, poor Lumpy's used to have a prime, albeit busy/older location, but made the jump down the road to a brand new development that has turned out to be a dead mall.
I think we're gonna start staying at the beach in our own neighborhood. At least the younger kids still seem to be happy & cheerful, since they have no clue what is in store for them.
I stayed at the Sheraton in Austin for a week. I knew things had changed when as I walked in I passed 2 guys in livery standing around out front and 2 more greeted me before I had cleared the doors. I was the only person in the lobby then also. One of them held my elevator and said "if I needed anything - just call him personally." I think the "anything" covered more than fruit baskets.
"Stayed @ a hotel in the Vegas area for $14.99 on a Sunday last month"
My god, man.
What kind of thing are you?
In Soviet America, hotel room books YOU!
Forget Zombie Banks and Businesses, what about the real Zombies?
Over 30 million (so perhaps 50 million people?) exist only because of getting food stamps. (they used to be in telltale script form, but now it looks like a credit card)
They've been Zombies for an awful long time now...
By any standard, new, old or ancient, hospitality is now solidly in the red.
Not familiar enough with per-room rates distributed nationally to comment on that, but occupancy says they're now below break-even, collectively. Probably rather far below.
I wonder who's going to fill all the gleaming, high-rise hotels when the business travelers never return.
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p>
Such a shame ... all that polished marble, all those multi-tier lobbies with waterfalls.
burnside, exactly. And forget debt service, at these occupancy rates (and RevPAR) some of these hotels have to be struggling to make payroll!
best wishes
Samdog:
Zombie fire ants.
Hotels/Motels are competing with vacant houses/apartments by cutting extended-stay rates.
30% of homeowners will sell at the first sign of a rebound - Wall Street Examiner Forums
"More than 30 percent of homeowners said they would be likely to put their houses up for sale at the first sign of a market rebound"
So much for a price recovery.
does not bode well for St. louis Mo
there has been a lot of hotel/motel building in this area in the past few years
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 6:00 pm
Apartment building in my city used to be a crack house now an empty Luxury Condo building in a sketchy neighborhood. Who knew?
Soon, it will be a luxury crack house.
Green shoots!
More than 30 percent of homeowners said they would be likely to put their houses up for sale at the first sign of a market rebound
Most underwater shorts/longs probably concur.
Weird, it just occured to me. A million years ago in Asia as a young man employed by Uncle Sam I found the US Dollar was king. I was getting drunk, stoned, and laid on under $15.00 and I drank a lot back then.
Flash forward.
Having cash in America soon will be king again.
That is really depressing on a lot of levels. Jeebus, we may end up having the Chinese book sex tours here.
and don't forget the increased friction in the distribution of erotic services due to the Craigslist decision, another nail in the coffin for RevPAR
Having cash in America soon will be king again.
soon? you'd be surprised the type of discounts people will give for cash these days. and not just "fell off the back of the truck" kinds either.
Not One Cent (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 2:13 pm
"Soon, it will be a luxury crack house."
You'll know when you walk in and smell stale piss behind the concierge's desk.
Got to make money somehow I guess....
May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Mississippi’s pension system, the 65th largest in the U.S., has emerged as one of the nation’s most aggressive institutional litigants against companies it says committed securities fraud.
The Public Employees’ Retirement System of Mississippi is involved in at least 21 active federal securities-fraud class actions. It’s a lead plaintiff, either on its own or as part of an investor group, in at least 11 of them, including its May 12 appointment to co-manage litigation against Satyam Computer Services Ltd., the software-services provider at the center of India’s biggest corporate fraud inquiry.
@CR - I mentioned just that to my wife last weekend. I sure as hope our particular place doesn't shut down, but it's seems inevitable that a huge swath of leveraged assets are gonna go BK. With summer coming on in the desert (low season), it doesn't seem likely they'll even bother to stay open until next spring, and then only with a skeleton staff to try and recoup some cash flow for the bond holders, er, new owners.
there has been a lot of hotel/motel building in this area in the past few years
Find me an American metro area of over 250,000 where that hasn't been the case.
Basel Too,
I don't mean 20% off a room. I mean people selling their souls - their dignity - theirr beanie baby collections - just to eat.
You'll know when you walk in and smell stale piss behind the concierge's desk.
And the room service menu has oral sex listed.
Having cash in America soon will be king again.
soon? you'd be surprised the type of discounts people will give for cash these days.
That's why you can expect the government to eliminate cash sometime soon. Drive everything to electronic debit and credit cards in an attempt to stifle the underground economy.
Ted Koeppel had a tv show on China last year, and the image of 4 men breaking apart cement with sledgehammers to get to the rebar within, for the princely sum of 50 cents an hour for their labors didn't so much shock me, as their smiles that crossed language barriers to tell me that they were just happy to have a job.
broward, just saw that ... talk about "shadow inventory"!
Snerf, yeah - I've seen it before. The debtholders take over, but the properties are still cash flow negative - so they just shut them down until the economy improves.
best to all
oh. skipped over the "laid on" part of the post.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 1:58 pm I Since booking I've been inundated with "getaway specials" for everything from Cruises to dive tours.
And i look forward to my Mirage/Ceasers/all vegas spam discounts twice a day in my in box... figure once they might actually make it worth my while to go...sneak in a real good deal, free room and food and airline for 4 if you promise to gamble and lose... if its all not in the same day, hell i can accomodate...
"More than 30 percent of homeowners said they would be likely to put their houses up for sale at the first sign of a market rebound"
I believe strongly that there is a shadow inventory that is much greater than conventionally believed. I'm not sure how trusted Zillow's research is, however. If the CEO hadn't used the word 'zestimates' a couple of times (within the first minute), I might have more confidence.
Video - CNBC.com
U.S. Economy: Jobless Claims Increase on Impact From Chrysler
"A good part of the jump was from states reporting an increase in auto-related claims, a Labor official said without providing a more precise estimate."
Hah! My city gov't is patting itself on the back for greenlighting a seaside high-rise hotel NOW. To bring in those tourism bucks/hotel tax revenue. Is there something about a city council seat that kills brain cells?
nova (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 11:18 am reply Ignore user
Basel Too,
I don't mean 20% off a room. I mean people selling their souls - their dignity - theirr beanie baby collections - just to eat.
I've been adding aggressively to my DVD position recently. Averaging $2.34/title. What? Why are you looking at me funny? You don't dollar cost average track your purchases?
(630 titles, insurance replacement price $12k+) What? You don't track that either?
Fundamentals continue to deteriorate, meanwhile back on mars there's a hell of a pump brewing in REITs and financials.
nova (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 2:16 pm reply
"May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Mississippi’s pension system, the 65th largest in the U.S., has emerged as one of the nation’s most aggressive institutional litigants against companies it says committed securities fraud."
<
p>
Securities fraud litigation: the new road to riches for the John Edwards crowd ... little effort involved.
<
p>
Comrade Dazed and Amused (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 2:19 pm reply Ignore user Having cash in America soon will be king again.
soon? you'd be surprised the type of discounts people will give for cash these days.
amazing what the price ends up going on the sales invoice when you pay cash as well, the seller needs a cpl of g's to go into his pocket..... hell yes, now i have the sellers of discrentionary items begging me... sweet...
i maybe the only person under 30 who's never bought a DVD. too many special editions and format changes to be worthwhile.
Atlas we meet again, John Galt.
We're looking at going to Disneyland in the fall. In the past, we've always stayed at the Anaheim Sheraton, but with the cratering in the hospitality industry, we're thinking about finally staying at the Disneyland Hotel or the Grand Californian. Any advice on getting the best deal possible at one of those?
TIA.
Some people here have been talking about the building shadow inventory for years. It is especially hard on the bubble zones. Every year that goes by another "last kid" graduates high school/college and those parents are more than ready to ring the register. My canary is the San Diego region. They are about to see demographic dislocations not seen for 70 plus years.
"That's why you can expect the government to eliminate cash sometime soon. Drive everything to electronic debit and credit cards in an attempt to stifle the underground economy."
Interesting science fiction concept. No, really, it would be an administrative technique in an age of strict social control.
My partner went to an event here in San Francisco and filled out one of those win a free trip forms they had at the door.
Well they called last week saying she had won a trip to either Vegas or San Diego, her choice, all she had to do was pay the tax on the package. So its round trip for two, hotel, for 3 days 2 nights. The travel agency it was through said for her to decide which location she wanted and to come by Saturday, last Saturday, to pick up the tickets and pay the tax.
We talked about it, neither of us desiring to go to Vegas or San Diego, we were just in the San Diego area a few months ago. So she didn't go. They have been calling three times a night this week, we like everyone else screen calls.
Was kind of amazed until I read some of the comments here, guess they are that desperate...
FAZ was up 40% from Friday's close. It can't be cloudy everyday.
"Having cash in America soon will be king again."
No, it won't.
Only drug dealers remember what cash looks like.
"More than 30 percent of homeowners said they would be likely to put their houses up for sale at the first sign of a market rebound"
I think these are people that don't feel comfortable with defaulting, but are struggling to make ends meet. With layoffs some folks that weren't looking to sell prior may be now.
And oil goes green, dollar in cliff diving mode....swell just swell.
http://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1GGLS_en-USUS291US316&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=/http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www%3Fpost%3D94866
Rumors of major bank failure, choose your thread.
Also rumors of widespread google failures, although it's working for me but Verizon has seemed uncommonly slow the past couple of days. Perhaps a traffic issue from panic reading.
I have a close relative that was responsible for the design of a large restaurant/club in Vegas that was part of a hotel. It was the pretty unique high budget concept and was the focus of his life for quite some time.
Toward the end everything turned out better than expected and it seemed all that money and effort was well spent.
Everything looked great for the opening date:
September 13, 2001
TCA (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 11:27 am reply Ignore user
We're looking at going to Disneyland in the fall. In the past, we've always stayed at the Anaheim Sheraton, but with the cratering in the hospitality industry, we're thinking about finally staying at the Disneyland Hotel or the Grand Californian. Any advice on getting the best deal possible at one of those?
Depending upon your length of stay consider season ticket purchases and take advantage of the associated stay at the park deals. Yes, I have an annual pass and was there just 4 days ago. The visitor mix was interesting. Fewer "European" or "Asian" and more Hispanic and Pacific crescent looking attendees.
The Californian is an "event" stay. You pay more but IMO get the better experience. Besides, there is a back door to California Adventure and it opens early.
And oil goes green, dollar in cliff diving mode....swell just swell.
DBO might be worth one more look?
Yes, developer campaign funding. That and the threat of lawsuits, which the city doesn't want to pay for, if the builders don't get their way.
I just completed my cross country trip from MA to Arizona and back. Stayed at a lot of motel 6's. Very clean, nice rooms, free internet. Nothing over $40 per night. The place I stayed at in Phoenix was very large, had a kitchen, and went for $35 per night. I compared these places to Comfort Inn, Holiday Inn, etc. The "higher end" places wanted $70 per night to stay in the middle of nowhere. How are these places staying in business? Noticed a lot of empty parking lots, too. Does anyone know the break-even for an average hotel/motel? The fixed costs must be huge (electricity, water, tax, etc). Haven't noticed a lot of closed down hotels yet. That maybe the next sign of distress (like empty strip malls).
Expect a bunch of small to midsize daily newspapers to fold in the wake of these Chrysler and GM dealership closings. Television and radio will also get hammered with layoffs.
Ac
What happened??? Where they able to book the Backstreet Boys as planned?
"That's why you can expect the government to eliminate cash sometime soon. Drive everything to electronic debit and credit cards in an attempt to stifle the underground economy."
Cash serves no purpose to the powers that be. It only accounts for a tiny percentage of transactions nowadays, and any preponderance of printing will be very obvious, and their game would more closely resemble what went on in Mexico in the 1970's to 1990's, when the Peso not being backed by anything, went from:
12.5 Pesos to the $ in 1975
to
over 10,000 Pesos to the $ in 1992
The Hyperinflation devaluation next door that nobody ever talks about...
Imagine you were a middle-class Mexican with 100,000 Pesos in the bank in 1975?
1975 Value in USD $8,000
1992 value in USD $10
Why do you think there are so many "illegals" in our country the past 25 years?
The entire country (save those that had non-Peso assets) got wiped out.
I just paid $18 in cash at a supermarket, and the check out clerk seemed unsurprised. But the 20 dollar bill I paid with came from an ATM. The purchases were registered on the store's inventory software, but not elsewhere. Do you think anyone would care that I purchased a baguette, veal cutlet and a tub of chicken BBQ today? If so, why?
Obama Says ‘We Can’t Keep on Just Borrowing From China’
Obama Says ‘We Can’t Keep on Just Borrowing From China’ - Bloomberg.com
May 14 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama said U.S. long- term debt is “unsustainable” and pledged to work with Congress to shore up entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare.
“We can’t keep on just borrowing from China,” Obama said in response to a question at a town hall event in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, outside Albuquerque. “Or borrowing from other countries.” He said interest on that debt “means we are mortgaging our children’s future.” Other countries also may “get tired of buying our debt, and when that happens we will really have to raise interest rates to be able to borrow,” Obama said.
And oil goes green, dollar in cliff diving mode....swell just swell.
The action in oil is very interesting given the adverse economic and inventory conditions.
It just shows the effect the Fed is having in divorcing the dollar and the markets from any kind of economic utility.
What happens to oil in an environment with legitimate demand?
In my monthly newsletter I am predicting oil prices at $450/bbl by the end of this year and $1500/bbl by the end of 2010.
seein' the dawg on mr. toad's wild ride
Gee who woulda thought.
Disgusting rooms, terrible inflated prices and clueless staff.
I think 2/3 of the hotels in this country need to go under.
The remaining 1/3 who can actually sell their product can survive
"In my monthly newsletter I am predicting oil prices at $450/bbl by the end of this year and $1500/bbl by the end of 2010."
Secular apocalyptic?
Ac
What happened??? Where they able to book the Backstreet Boys as planned?
Nothing. They opened but business was terrible.
I recall this particular relative of mine became seriously depressed after the whole thing and eventually left Vegas saying it was vile and superficial (like he didn't know that before). Life went on...
"In my monthly newsletter I am predicting oil prices at $450/bbl by the end of this year and $1500/bbl by the end of 2010."
ac- are you serious here? how is this possible when the US consumer goes into economic coma at $4 per gallon?
"Do you think anyone would care that I purchased a baguette, veal cutlet and a tub of chicken BBQ today? If so, why?"
Okay, but remember that you asked for this knowledge, pavel.
FBI Hoped to Follow Falafel Trail to Iranian Terrorists Here :: IPT in the News :: The Investigative Project on Terrorism
Kohl's Is Expanding In Anticipation Of Economy's Recovery
"NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Kohl's Corp. (KSS) is eyeing more expansion, in addition to improving existing stores, as a strategy for coming out of the recession ahead of competitors and remaining there."
Up 60% off the lows is this the Shorting opportunity of the year?
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 5/14/2009 - 2:34 pm reply
Rumors of major bank failure, choose your thread.
Also rumors of widespread google failures, although it's working for me but Verizon has seemed uncommonly slow the past couple of days. Perhaps a traffic issue from panic reading.
_ _ _ _ _ _
Broward,
RE bank failure, we need some tragi-comic relief to shake the markets out of their sweet-dreams world.
RE Google crash, that happened to me this morning -- have Google search as my home page, when it opened it took about five clicks (closing the browser first as error message suggested) of the news link to open G NEWS site! Never seen that before.
"I don't mean 20% off a room. I mean people selling their souls - their dignity - theirr beanie baby collections - just to eat."
Speaking of Beanie Babies.......
Bo the Obama dog makes Beanie Baby debut
The article requested is no longer available.
It looks like the major bank failure rumor is from Jim Willie, which to me gives it more credibility.
"Okay, but remember that you asked for this knowledge, pavel."
Just reading the first few paragraphs made me feel gassy. Also, I don't believe it, and it stopped my computer cold.
AMF,
I have been an expat living in Mexico since 1994. I lived through the peso devaluation of '94, losing all of my US assets and credit in the process.
Mexico used to be an all cash country. EVERYTHING was paid in cash, even commercial transactions. Since 95, the government has been slowly working to move more and more transactions towards debit cards, and eliminate cash transactions. The motivation has been to increase the tax base, and eliminate the informal economy. I can see the US government doing the same thing as the underground economy grows. It's only a matter of time.
"eliminate cash transactions"
what is the mechanism for doing this?
I noticed in some parts of Europe it is still cash almost everywhere. Poland especially.
I don't think I would want to use my cc in the Baltics, Ukraine, or Russian Fed.
It looks like the major bank failure rumor is from Jim Willie, which to me gives it more credibility.
Nice webdesign on that site....
Do you think anyone would care that I purchased a baguette, veal cutlet and a tub of chicken BBQ today?
One veal cutlet and a single baguette? Single man, lives alone, has some disposable income, age probably between 35 and 55 but that's not so certain. Decent chance he's an immigrant from Europe.
The government couldn't care less but this is useful marketing information without a doubt.
Two SPX outside days in the past 6 trading days. Sure looks like a healthy market to me.
the mervyns that went bankrupt near my apartment, last year in the fall, is already a brand new kohls. I think they are just about to open. they snapped that open spot up real fast.
We've been to Disneyland twice and Disneyworld 4 times in the past 6 years.
This year was our second Disneyland visit. First time around we stayed at a Best Western within walking distance of the park. 2-room kids suite type of thing.
This time, we stayed on property at the Paradise Pier hotel (just across the street from the Grand Californian).
If you have kids (we do), staying on property for at least a couple days is cool; character breakfasts, back-door park access, etc.
Otherwise, it's just a REALLY EXPENSIVE hotel.
Animal Kingdom in Disney World was very cool; we had giraffes outside our balcony!
Usually, we rent a house for our Florida Disney World trips, much cheaper, lots more space, etc.
Disneyland seems to have more "local people" at the parks than DisneyWorld. Maybe because no one lives near DW, and DL is right in the middle of whatever that town is called.
BTW, I work in a resort. The business is not cratering everywhere.
It's cyclical. Sometimes you get a good deal, sometimes you pay rack.
Most of the folks in my university town are anxious to learn spanish. They get a little flustered when I tell them it is more important to learn the language of your future masters. They get extremely flustered when I tell them that it will be essential for their daughters, expecially if they are attractive and blonde, to learn chinese. When they as why, I tell them of my experiences in Cebu and Taipei vis a vis Japanese businessmen. They get the message.
Its true enough but to speak the truth there isn't enough work to go around. Blame technology if you like
As a society we have few choices --
We aren't China (so we can't NO CHILD FOR YOU, which would solve the whole issue in a generation) Stalin (no killing them with neglect) or Nazi Germany (no death camps thank god) -- that leaves us with only one real choice, paying them off is the least odious one since we don;t have the nerve to do social democracy or social capital.
If we choose not to help at all (or are forced to by bankruptcy) those hungry people will follow anyone and let me give you a hint, as a decent number of those people are vets or even active service -- its a national suicide ploy .
The next state that replaces this one may well be a nightmare state. or more likely a military dictatorship -- no one will have any economic freedom
I have no moral issue with this either. if you don't include people in your society than your rules don't apply to them -- Blow Back is a B*tch
It will fail.
The cash used in Mexico is going to be the U$D anyway -- if that option isn't available and taxes keep rising eventually you'll get work stoppages or some Grover Norquist "Gut the State" guy as President.
The only exception will be if the US goes full on social democracy -- maybe they can use keep it up but a US social democracy will be very interesting as it will be under constant pressure from immigration, a hungry military and the anti tax crowd. we don;t make enough wealth to tax it all away. what was learned in Sweden is when taxes reach a certain point no one bothers to earn more than that point and the system starts to implode
We may also see more than a few states refuse the federal system outright
Not as much as you think. The government would certainly prefer a cashless society but most poor people are unbanked. Also smaller merchants are going back to cash as card companies ding them with fees.I expect this to increase.
Cash won't be king anytime soon but if the recession keeps up fro more than 10 years it will be, we won't be able to keep the juice on to run all the computers or upkeep the cables and equipment
A last note (as I am feeling a bit over posted) on the future economy
Barter Country
As the economy suffers, a nation turns toward cashless transactions.
From Reason Barter Country - Reason Magazine
taking away cash makes things a bit less convenient but it won't help a lick.
Looks like this recession is taking the piss out of everything. Why not the hotel & lodging sector, too?