Does anyone else think this current stabilization/green shoots is the eye of the hurricane? For whatever reason, looking at that original IMF recast chart ( IMFresets.jpg (image) ) I just get the feeling we're being lured into a false sense of recovery, and the second punch will be the one that puts us onto the floor.
BEIJING -- China's economy is precariously poised between an aggressive stimulus program and worsening global demand, new economic data for April showed, with the nation's exports extending their decline even as domestic investment programs continued to accelerate.
China's exports fell 22.6% from a year earlier to $91.94 billion in April, the customs agency said Tuesday, deeper than March's 17.1% decline. However, fixed asset investment, China's benchmark measure of capital spending, rose 33.9% from a year earlier in April after a 30.3% gain in March. The fastest investment increase in five years came as the government and state banks continued to fund more stimulus projects.
ZackAttack (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/12/2009 - 2:59 pm reply Ignore user "Immaculate recovery"... is that like the conception thing, meaning no one gets boned?
au contraire, my dear Zack, just the opposite... I am long Vasoline....
NEW YORK--Citigroup Inc (C: 3.75, -0.11, -2.85%) said on Tuesday that the committee overseeing its use of $45 billion of taxpayer money had approved the use of nearly all of that sum to make loans.
The New York-based bank said the committee had approved $44.75 billion of lending initiatives as of March 31, including $8.25 billion for new programs in the first quarter.
Citigroup said the new loans included $5 billion to municipalities, universities and nonprofit hospitals; $2 billion to help fund small and midsized businesses; $1 billion for residential mortgages; and $250 million for auto loans
OK you have 8.25 of 45 Bb covered what other projects can there still be that take up the delta of the 45bb?
remember when the stock market used to fluctuate throughout the day instead of flatlining after the first 40 minutes then going bananas 40 minutes before the close.
Someone sure dumped some Miracle-Gro on all of those green shoots about 2 hours ago. To the moon, Alice!
Time to rip the entrails out of the bears and run them up the nearest flagpole. Every down day for the S&P is a victory for Al Qaeda. Buy now or the terrorists win.
"And for RI, there is far too much inventory for any significant rebound in new home construction. So where will the growth come from? "
Someone's ox has to die. Some segment of the economy that has a privileged place will have to lose it.
Because growth isn't just about making more money; growth is also about providing more service for less money. Or replacing an economic center that makes money by selling access to scarce resource, with another that provides employment by manufacturing those resources.
My bet is on energy. Nobody likes the energy industry. Nobody really thinks it's a good for America to ship much of its fuel from halfway around the work anymore. The technologies we need are almost there. Pick five or six likely ones, hit them with funding and a tight timetable, see what happens. Implement. Net cost should be the same or less, but with cash going into the pockets of construction people, installers, retrofitters, infrastructure operators across the nation.
The municipal bond market is in trouble, and Congress wants to grant it a federal guarantee.
Investors are concerned about ability of state and local governments to pay off their municipal bonds, and lately, some governments have even been experiencing trouble raising money through bonds.
Congressional Democrats will soon push measures for the federal government to reinsure, help purchase and regulate municipal bonds, according to Congressional staff and industry sources.
where is all this money coming from ? Borrowing 50% on the dollar isnt enough, sure go for 60%...dick heads...
Create a liquidity facility through the Federal Reserve to purchase municipal bonds, much like what the Federal Reserve does with mortgage-backed and federal government bonds.
Form a temporary federal government program to reinsure municipal bond insurers. Almost all municipalities buy bond insurance because it boosts their credit ratings. The cost of the insurance is usually lower than the higher interest payments that come with a lower credit rating. If the insurer runs into financial trouble, then the credit ratings on the municipal bonds drop because there is doubt about the insurance. Government backing would eliminate that concern.
Provide additional regulation for financial advisors to municipalities. Many, including former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt, have been calling for stronger oversight of the municipal bond market in the wake of pay-to-play bond scandals, in which banks and advisers have made gifts or political contributions, and received financing jobs along with the fees for those jobs.
Well, the Media is damn near dead, so that can get re-invented and become a growth industry, as people find new modes to communication to attach advertising to from the remaining 13 businesses that need to advertise.
The guy who fancies himself the nation's financial stockpicker, credit-card planner, industrial-CEO firer, and health-care-system designer (Obama) ran his own finances like the stereotypical HELOCed yuppie: Zero Hedge: Was Obama A Subprime Borrower?
Obama's solution for his own finances was to get elected senator, so I wait for his recovery package to include making every American a senator.
If I could hit a fastball, I could join the Harrisburg Senators and make a couple thousand a month playing minor-league baseball. But that's probably it for my Senatorial aspirations.
“It looks to me now as if the markets are now pricing in a rapid recovery, that they’re pricing in a V-shaped recession, which I consider extremely unlikely,” Krugman said at a forum in Shanghai today. “The market seems to be looking as if this is going to be an average recession, but it’s not.”
I think they're pricing in the same thing they've been pricing in for years and years now:
Gross moral hazard courtesy of the Federal Reserve.
I was reading Zero Hedge and something was bugging me. You get used to it after awhile but it's easy to forget the big picture:
Hedge funds for the most part are ponzi units. You don't have all this talk about quant funds in a normal economy. The fact that we have all these hedge funds is consistent with ongoing ponzi finance. Not a reformed "post-crash" economy.
Needless to say the commodity and emerging markets are starting to look like 2007 all over again.
I sense an Operation Market Garden moment coming for Timmy and Ben:
Lt. General Frederick "Boy" Browning: I've just been on to Monty. He's very proud and pleased.
Major General Urquhart: Pleased?
Lt. General Frederick "Boy" Browning: Of course. He thinks Market Garden was 90% successful.
Major General Urquhart: But what do you think?
Lt. General Frederick "Boy" Browning: Well, as you know, I always felt we tried to go a bridge too far.
CR,
You make a solid case for negative, slightly negative, extended low levels and on and on yet you conclude "recession." We are in a recession now. How is it that with almost no good news that we merely stay in recession? For but one instance, we need +350k employment to stay even. Even under the most optimistic views we will be well under that for years. IMO continuing employment losses will drop us lower not hold us here at mere recession.
I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that virtually every last municipality in the country that participated in the free-for-all of getting mark to model money from the homebuilders, spent it as quick as it came in, or as it's turning out, counted their chicks before the eggs were hatched.
their only way out really, is to turn their police departments into money-making-machines that give out tickets as fast as they can write them, an ad hoc tax that most people are prompt about paying...
'Brings up the point. Will they guarantee all Muni bonds oustanding or just the ones written going forward? The old investors may get burned.'
"House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) is leading the effort and has long touted HIS investments in municipal bonds that finance public projects as a civic duty."
As long as they are not older than Frank they are safe i would presume...
If you look at how gdp is calculated, understating inflation shows up as a more positive gdp (or less negative) gdp. Therefore, I think the main source of "growth" for the next few years will be deliberately understating inflation.
Wish I had time to really write out my thoughts on this. I see a "W" recovery myself, to always remind liberals of George Bush. There's been a minor burnoff of the debt but not enough to reset the credit cycle like in 1931. So I see a jagged seesaw as that debt runs up again, then falters again, etc. That's pretty much what's been happening in Japan for twenty years. The Feds can call it a recovery, right?
WASHINGTON (AP) — The financial health of Social Security and Medicare, the government’s two biggest benefit programs, have worsened because of the severe recession, and Medicare is now paying out more than it receives.
Trustees of the programs said Tuesday that Social Security will start paying out more in benefits than it collects in taxes in 2016, one year sooner than projected last year, and the giant trust fund will be depleted by 2037, four years sooner.
Medicare is in even worse shape. The trustees said the program for hospital expenses will pay out more in benefits than it collects this year and will be insolvent by 2017, two years earlier than the date projected in last year’s report.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the head of the trustees group, said the new reports were a reminder that “the longer we wait to address the long-term solvency of Medicare and Social Security, the sooner those challenges will be upon us and the harder the options will be.”
Geithner said that President Barack Obama was committed to working with Congress to find ways to control runaway growth in both public and private health care expenditures, noting the promise Monday by major health care providers to trim costs by $2 trillion over the next decade.
Assume Crash Positions (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 5/12/2009 - 7:19 pm
I think the better analogy might be the Battle of Bulge with the Bulls as the Wermacht.
Maryland is paying $1,100 per month per vehicle, for the use of 28 cars for a car sharing service.
Fast forward 100 days in, the cars have only been used for 84 hours or 16 times, or $1300 per hour of driving when local limo service is at $60 per hour
The kicker: "County officials attribute the slow start to the reluctance of county employees to give up their own county-assigned vehicles. "
At least the anticipated budget tightening will help bring in smart over stupid
Fiduciary Doodie (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/12/2009 - 12:18 pm
"House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) is leading the effort and has long touted HIS investments in municipal bonds that finance public projects as a civic duty."
As long as they are not older than Frank they are safe i would presume...
OT: Had the in-laws over for lunch today. They practically screamed at me for not pouring everything back into stocks. They kept repeating how much I had "lost" this month. These are the same people who have had to make do with a 35% reduced retirement income last October. They are ready for the next shearing.
So just what is behind this green surge today? Looks like Kermit slapped on some sneakers and is practicing his hang time...doesn't it make your head hurt to think about all this money pumping that is going on. The mind boggles. My dollar feels cheaper every day.
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 5/12/2009 - 1:56 pm
Jeff "10% growth is in the bag" Immelt
Once again why should we listen to those who didn't see it coming in the first place?
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Tim
I absolutely agree. But if these guys, who normally are so full of it and have no qualms about fudging things on the upside, can't come up with anything more positive to say than this, you know it's ugly out there.
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said that home prices are an "Achilles' heel" for the U.S. economy, but he is seeing "seeds of bottoming" in housing, Dow Jones reports.
Last updated: 3:13 pm
May 11, 2009
Posted: 1:20 pm
May 11, 2009
Here's the reality: the Gotti's gotta go.
The bank has been given the go-ahead to foreclose on Victoria Gotti's palatial estate on Long Island -- the same used in the TV reality show "Growing Up Gotti" -- saying she owes a whopping $650,000 in mortgage payments, according to court paper made public today.
Gotti's lender, JP Morgan Chase, claims the daughter of the late Gambino crime family boss John "Dapper Don" Gotti -- owes them the staggering amount after she failed to make payments for two years starting in September 2006, court records reveal.
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/12/2009 - 3:31 pm reply Ignore user The music selection of the bubble really ought to be "Entry of the Gladiators", as it's circus appropriate.
"Was there a rumor I missed that made the markets rocket up 80 points in 5 minutes?"
"Zara Coming to Florida Mall"
"South Shore Plaza may get Target"
big boost for SPG today.
Wish I had time to really write out my thoughts on this. I see a "W" recovery myself, to always remind liberals of George Bush.
I can see rebounds in Asia and some of the emerging markets if they don't choke on excess capacity. But for the U.S. I gotta see some sign of life in consumer spending before buying into any kind of material rebound.
GWB is my least favorite liberal president, ignoring all the social conservatism stuff of course.
Guns, ammunition, gold, and gardening supplies, sir.
See Ruger vs. S&P 500:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=RGR#chart3:symbol=rgr;range=6m;compare=^gspc;indicator=volumema;charttype=ohlc;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
and you know what those seeds are going to produce....weeds!! Woohoo, or better yet, Cannabis. Or who cares, long as they are green shoots.
Cant they just put AG out to pasture already. The guy is a hack has been and if anything, should be publicly stoned. I mean with real stones, ya know. (who threw that?)
Great so green shoots and seeds of bottoming...now we need the manure of growth, the flowering of hope...you know I use analogies because I am an idiot when it comes to markets and the economy and that is all I have available to communicate my feelings on the subject, but god almighty I don't need it from the 'experts' too! This selective use of individual nuggets of data is beyond insulting.
but dont worry, those jobs and hose factories will appear under the GM banner somewheere else
uhm.. like china
If GM moves the jobs to China it will be because they believe the Chinese will be buying those cars... I read somewhere that China is now the largest car market in the world - passed the US this spring as our sales were tanking.
There is precious little incentive to bring cars back from Asia into the US - parts 'yes', cars 'no'.
Thats Ballgame Goat Herders wrote (quote ap) at 1221
"Medicare is in even worse shape. The trustees said the program for hospital expenses will pay out more in benefits than it collects this year and will be insolvent by 2017, two years earlier than the date projected in last year’s report."
it was the medicare part D non negotiatiable perscription drug benefit, un funded by prez bush and the then republican controlled congress that pushed this rock off the cliff
no tax dedicated to this benefit!!
but then again the objective since 1980 was to feed the federal budget pig the tax and spend democrats built until it burst and thus knock out liberal social service programs
sucess!...but unplanned outcome...the military industrial complex will be shattered as well, either before or after we go the way of rome
leaving corporations to rule (BTW the bill of rights doesnt apply to you when you are at work and on company territory...they can tell you what to say, what to ware and what to think, and your desk (its their desk) your locker and under many circumstances your person can be searched and, of course your 2nd amendment right is pfff)
salute the multi national corporation (can we have a company flag please?...and an army too...hahahah the microsoft marines....has a nice ring to it dont you think!
Mock Turtle.
The democrats didn't exactly go along kicking and screaming either. As long as the defense industries produced good union jobs they happily went a long.
"I think the main source of "growth" for the next few years will be deliberately understating inflation."
Bingo. The US doesn't want to pay extra on TIPS, COLA's,...
Anything too volatile can be declared excluded from CPI. Or the miracle of hedonics: those guys on the juice throw harder and hit farther, so the value of a baseball game ticket must be worth more...
i believe that was real bottom picking (real buying with real dollars) this is leveraged buying, borrowing and manipulation.
The "Pump & Dump to end all pump & dumps".
May 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks erased an earlier drop as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the housing market may be on the verge of recovery and financial markets should continue improving.
The best place to look for a growth industry for the US is in energy. The one bright spot for my state (OR) is solar and wind power mfg companies. Replacing light bulbs with white-LED light fixtures would cut electricity demand by 90%. Retrofitting homes that use heating oil now to use natural gas would reduce oil usage in the northeast US significantly. Massive amounts of natural gas have been discovered in the US recently; google "Marcellus Shale" or "Barnett Shale".
I keep looking at that rally in the stockmarket in 1930, and I wonder if we are seeing basically the same thing today.
I hate hearing that we're so much smarter now than the folks in the 1930s that our knowledge is so much greater. Yep, that's why with had widespread neg-am in mortgages, corporate loans, etc.. over the past 5 years, right? Because we're so much smarter than we were in the 1930s.
"If GM moves the jobs to China it will be because they believe the Chinese will be buying those cars... I read somewhere that China is now the largest car market in the world - passed the US this spring as our sales were tanking."
i agree,we will likely export few if any cars to 2nd world nations
cars will be imported to the usa from china and india for our domestic consumption
and maybe even some built (mostly by robots eventually) in the usa,
interms of current account ballance and cars, we are effed
2005 Honda Pilot. Low 293,000 miles. Certified to have never been dealer serviced. Several boxes of service parts. Added value!: 6 (six) NEW IN BOX! platinum spark plugs. $240,000 obo or 4 oz gold.
Hard to call direct payments a 'subsidy' - like calling a chain saw murder a 'personal foul'... on the other hand I'd rather see them expand in Asia selling to Asians - that actually might be a good business model where they could turn a profit and we tax payers might get paid back [as opposed to trying to sell to flat broke busted US tax payer consumers].
The main conundrum in the market right now is how do we move from "better" economic data to "good" economic data. That kind of move will require the consumer to start spending a bit more again. Nobody expects the frenetic spending of the pre-crash era, but some kind of return to normalish spending would be a huge positive.
The fact that we have all these hedge funds is consistent with ongoing ponzi finance. Not a reformed "post-crash" economy.
ac,
That is what happens when you have a central bank and a government hell bent on preserving bogus credit. Real capital does not need government support. Bogus credit does.
Sadly, bogus credit is seen as the lifeblood of our eCONomy. The banksters still rule.
Travelers going from Tucson to Phoenix may soon be blazing across the desert in speeding solar bullet trains propelled by the sun’s rays. Hot on the heels of President Obama’s plan for High Speed Rail in the US comes the news that Arizona-based Solar Bullet LLC is proposing a new 220mph bullet train that will be entirely powered by the sun and will make the trip in 30 minutes flat.
bearly (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/12/2009 - 7:53 pm
New Green Shoot business idea!
Lightweight Foldable Granite Countertops, suitable for installation in tents.
cars will be imported to the usa from china and india for our domestic consumption
you must mean for THEIR internal consumption... I doubt anyone will be increasing car exports to the US UNLESS the dollar strengthens... to do so now would in effect be like throwing dollars & dollar assets in the ocean.
People can't have it both ways... growing exports to USA & perpetually strong dollar & dollar denominated assets WITHOUT some kind of major central bank intervention from the exporters.
Posted by Tyler Durden at 3:31 PM
Now that Merrill Lynch has upgraded every single REIT and has a price target of +/- infinity, (conveniently pocketing over $100 million in the process), the company can focus on more pressing issues at hand. And no, not redecorating Thain's legacy office in the neo-uber-criminal style). Instead, the bank has sent not one, not two, but a whopping six cease and desist order to Zero Hedge.
Here's the 6 posts Merrill sent cease and desist orders for. Pass and posts the links on the internets to keep them alive:
"House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) is leading the effort and has long touted HIS investments in municipal bonds that finance public projects as a civic duty."
The new faith based investing - Guilt Based Investing
I am amazed that people are not lynching greenspan yet.. in a less "civilized" age false prophets were sacrificed to please the gods (once it was evident that they were fakes).
//Lucifer, he says the same thing every year - he will eventually be correct!//
broward,
A big chunk of semiconductor mfg capacity in OR has been converted or is in the process of being converted to production of solar cells for worldwide sale. It's the silver lining to the tanking of the PC/flash memory/DRAM industry. Most of the investment has been from foreign companies buying the facilities and converting them.
Brings up the point. Will they guarantee all Muni bonds oustanding or just the ones written going forward? The old investors may get burned
I think FDIC will wind up guaranteeing all of it, else there'll be capital flight.
The way I would play it would be to wait until, say, Cali has an auction failure for its Revenue Anticipation Notes or Michigan after a GM BK is in full bloom.
Then you buy the worst 9% coupons from Inland Empire GO bonds or Detroit sewer bonds, short treasuries and reap the coupon.
I think you and others here are missing one of the fundamental strengths of our new (e)CONomy.
Many decades ago, $1 of new debt created $1 of new GDP. During 2008, $6 of new debt created $1 of GDP growth. See the trend? We are now so wealthy, we can create more and more debt (money) with less and less output/growth.
And here's the best part. Nominal GDP is now declining against rising money creation. We've reached eCONomic nirvana. Free wealth! It's like perpetual motion only you can spend it!
but how the heck will an america mired in represscion (depression recession hybrid)
be able to compete with a 2000 dollar or 3000 dollar tata????
or the cherry
By the time they are landed here & distributed they won't be $2000-3000 anymore. Not in dollars... not unless their central banks keep bucking up the dollar [which means they really cost more once the dollar asset losses at the central bank level are factored in]...
Credit markets improving? For who? What is he looking at? This optimism with the news that Advanta is halting all lending, banks are recinding consumer credit? Is balance sheet repair the same as credit markets?
I don't get it. We are just about to crest on this roller coaster.
But the M--ket is always right!.. Krugman is blaspheming our God.. the only true God
//Still, Paul Krugman, Princeton University’s Nobel Prize- winning economist, said global economic prospects don’t justify the two-month rally that has restored $8.9 trillion to stock markets around the world.
“It looks to me now as if the markets are now pricing in a rapid recovery, that they’re pricing in a V-shaped recession, which I consider extremely unlikely,” Krugman said at a forum in Shanghai today. “The market seems to be looking as if this is going to be an average recession, but it’s not//
Nature adheres to the Pareto principle (80/20 rule). The middle-class illusion that was modeled on a Gaussian (normal) distribution was based an unsustainable rate of credit expansion to fuel asset appreciation & consumption.
In reality, there has been limited investment in core productive technologies, and there are few who have the necessary skills in which to adequately differentiate from global wage arbitrage. The end result is/will be both higher unemployment and stagnant, if not declining, real wages.
Our current level of national/public debt couldn't possibly be supported during the boom times; it is ludicrous to think it will not either be defaulted and/or inflated away given our present economic realities. The bottom line is that we simply do not generate enough wealth to warrant our current level of consumption. We have been borrowing to make up the difference. This borrowing is soon coming to an end.
The only remaining puzzle are the geo-strategic moves to be played out in the ME to secure our source(s) of oil. It appears there may be some recalcitrant nation-states who may not wish to be paid for their valuable commodities with a rapidly depreciating $USD.
Oh well, they'll soon find out why we really are in Iraq. Hint: Yes Virginia, it really was all about blood for oil.
i guess, gm will make cars in china for chinese consumption...and for american consumption too
I doubt the last part... again - it is cheaper to build them here NOW than bring them here... throw in dollar devaluation and it becomes way more expensive.
You might make the parts in Asia but NOT the final assembly build, not the 'boxes'.
The only way we go back to being a huge importer of cars is if the Immaculate Recovery works out the way bulls suggest... that we go back to 2004... then we make SUVs and import 'small autos'... if that doesn't happen then we drive used SUVs until the wheels fall off and assemble small autos.
Again assuming a long drawn out 'L shaped [not quite a] recovery'...
I have an indicator for you. Five.That was the number of baby turtles, in two plastic bins, that I saw for sale by a man walking from car to car on the Market-Frankford El in Philadelphia last Friday.I've seen lots of people selling stuff on the El. Bootleg DVDs and mix CDs, colognes and perfumes, candy and snacks, watches and jewelry. I once saw two guys negotiate the purchase of an engagement ring. And there's been a noticeable increase in the number of "vendors" walking up and down the train. But this is the first time I've ever seen someone selling anything that was alive.On second thought, maybe the indicator should be four. That was how many baby turtles the man had when he walked past me in the other direction about 15 minutes later.
Even real prophets weren't always liked. Jeremiah was stoned to death in exile after his decades of gloomy prophecy came true.
He couldn't stop pounding on moral hazard, but no one wanted to hear about it. At least they knew enough to make sure he was heard posthumously, as moral hazard always comes back to haunt.
Your take on S&P 500 earnings is spot on. The 2008 GAAP P/E was ~ 57. The estimated 2009 GAAP P/E is ~ 30. The estimated 2010 GAAP P/E is ~ 25. The shills like to use operating earnings and project short term earnings growth rates forward. It's all bunk to sell crappy financial services.
Stocks have underperformed long dated treasuries for > 40 years. You can figure out why that inCONvenient fact is not being discussed on the financial propaganda networks.
BTW, my operating golf handicap is always way better than my actual handicap. The difference? I only count my good shots.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has bounced an astounding 30% from its March 9 low of 6547. Is this the dawn of a new era? Are we off to the races again?
I have an even better one.. buy male and female turtles.. get them to reproduce in blighted california houses with damaged swimming pools and then sell even more turtles.
WASHINGTON (AP) - Mortgage giant Freddie Mac says it needs $6.1 billion in additional government aid as the cost to taxpayers from the housing market bust keeps rising. ¶
The McLean, Va.-based company, seized by federal regulators in September, posted a loss of $9.9 billion, or $3.14 per share, for the quarter ending March 31. That compares with a loss of $149 million, or 66 cents a share, in the year-ago period. ¶
The results were driven by $8.8 billion in credit losses due to soaring delinquency rates and falling home prices, and $7.1 billion in writedowns of the value of its mortgage-backed securities. ¶
The request for federal aid is Freddie Mac’s third since the takeover, bringing its total up to more than $51 billion. ¶
You know maybe it is time to nationalize everything. We all work for the Feds now baby...get paid in food stamps redeemable for your weekly food quota. Paid medical. You work till you die, no need for retirement concerns. Free birth control after two children. Free government transportation for everyone. Standardize testing tells us all what we were meant to do! Utopia here we come!
and here is part of it
general motors to cut 21,000 jobs and 2,500 dealers across america
GM proposes painful downsizing in bid for survival - Los Angeles Times
but dont worry, those jobs and hose factories will appear under the GM banner somewheere else
uhm.. like china
(at least some jobs stay here AND you are the stock holder ...or bagholder if it doesnt work out)
Q: Immaculate Recovery?
A: No.
Where is the growth to come from?
Things are looking good in the gold mining industry.
Jeff "10% growth is in the bag" Immelt
Once again why should we listen to those who didn't see it coming in the first place?
My forecast is for unemployment to stay elevated for some time,
CR, care to elaborate on 'some time'? 1yr, 5yrs, 25yrs?
Where have you gone Franco Harris,?
A nation turns it's loanly eyes to you...
Why do Americans make the best astronauts?
They took up space in school
CLAP HANDS!
get your negative earnings rally right now for a limited time only.
YouTube - Tom Waits - Clap Hands
Someone sure dumped some Miracle-Gro on all of those green shoots about 2 hours ago. To the moon, Alice!
more than a cyclical flesh wound...
visions of bernake as the black knight....spot on
YouTube - Monty Python-The Black Knight
"So where will the growth come from? "
I heard there will 90K solar panel flitting jobs.
"Immaculate recovery"... is that like the conception thing, meaning no one gets boned?
Does anyone else think this current stabilization/green shoots is the eye of the hurricane? For whatever reason, looking at that original IMF recast chart ( IMFresets.jpg (image) ) I just get the feeling we're being lured into a false sense of recovery, and the second punch will be the one that puts us onto the floor.
False premise #1: The equity markets have anything to do with the economy.
They don't, that stopped in about 1997. They are now casinos.
CR, care to elaborate on 'some time'? 1yr, 5yrs, 25yrs?
Second half of one of those.
I thought a depression was unlikely
From the use of past tense, it looks like CR has called a bottom. We'll see...
BEIJING -- China's economy is precariously poised between an aggressive stimulus program and worsening global demand, new economic data for April showed, with the nation's exports extending their decline even as domestic investment programs continued to accelerate.
China's exports fell 22.6% from a year earlier to $91.94 billion in April, the customs agency said Tuesday, deeper than March's 17.1% decline. However, fixed asset investment, China's benchmark measure of capital spending, rose 33.9% from a year earlier in April after a 30.3% gain in March. The fastest investment increase in five years came as the government and state banks continued to fund more stimulus projects.
So much capacity, so little demand...
AMF,
Sounds better if its ..
"Where have you gone ole' Mazzilo
A nation turns her loanly needs to you"
we are not going to have a depression
we are not going to have a recession
we are having a hybrid of the two
a represscion
it looks like this
_
..._
......_
.........___
..................___
...........................______
..........................................________________
................................................................................._____________________
....................................................................................................................................________________
followed by this
________________/^^^^^^^^^^^^^^______________/^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
"So where will the growth come from?"
The Ben Bernanke Money Train!
Choooo choooooo!
ZackAttack (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/12/2009 - 2:59 pm reply Ignore user "Immaculate recovery"... is that like the conception thing, meaning no one gets boned?
au contraire, my dear Zack, just the opposite... I am long Vasoline....
If you want a job with growth, then look no further than the Federal Reserve openings for printing press technican.
Kermit's post-lunch crack binge cannot possibly end well.
Hmmm to hold or sell gold?
Something in the middle - that will feel like a recession to many - is more likely.
How about 98% of those under 35 and everyone without 2 million of liquid assets...
If you want a job with growth, then look no further than the Federal Reserve openings for printing press technican.
I believe that position is now called financial data entry technician.
M
Gold is a Hold'em IMO.
NEW YORK--Citigroup Inc (C: 3.75, -0.11, -2.85%) said on Tuesday that the committee overseeing its use of $45 billion of taxpayer money had approved the use of nearly all of that sum to make loans.
The New York-based bank said the committee had approved $44.75 billion of lending initiatives as of March 31, including $8.25 billion for new programs in the first quarter.
Citigroup said the new loans included $5 billion to municipalities, universities and nonprofit hospitals; $2 billion to help fund small and midsized businesses; $1 billion for residential mortgages; and $250 million for auto loans
OK you have 8.25 of 45 Bb covered what other projects can there still be that take up the delta of the 45bb?
Oh yeah, year end bonuses...
1 oz of glod = 3600+ Slim Jims @ the Quickie-Mart in Tehachapi
"If you want a job with growth, then look no further than the Federal Reserve openings for printing press technican. "
They don't need a printing press technician. Just Homer sitting at a computer terminal hitting the "y" key.
Little good news here: Some small-business owners see end of downturn, survey says - Investment News
We're still heading down, folks. Our chins haven't hit the mat yet.
LOL do yourself a big favor,,,,hold, you will be glad you did.
there will be a one time juice up of the economy as the stimulus spending flows thru the pipe
but unless the bulk of our deficit spending is re directed towards 21 century, productivity, technology, energy development, rather than consumption
we bounce along the bottom of the L for at least a decade
remember when the stock market used to fluctuate throughout the day instead of flatlining after the first 40 minutes then going bananas 40 minutes before the close.
Someone sure dumped some Miracle-Gro on all of those green shoots about 2 hours ago. To the moon, Alice!
Time to rip the entrails out of the bears and run them up the nearest flagpole. Every down day for the S&P is a victory for Al Qaeda. Buy now or the terrorists win.
Was there a rumor I missed that made the markets rocket up 80 points in 5 minutes?
"And for RI, there is far too much inventory for any significant rebound in new home construction. So where will the growth come from? "
Someone's ox has to die. Some segment of the economy that has a privileged place will have to lose it.
Because growth isn't just about making more money; growth is also about providing more service for less money. Or replacing an economic center that makes money by selling access to scarce resource, with another that provides employment by manufacturing those resources.
My bet is on energy. Nobody likes the energy industry. Nobody really thinks it's a good for America to ship much of its fuel from halfway around the work anymore. The technologies we need are almost there. Pick five or six likely ones, hit them with funding and a tight timetable, see what happens. Implement. Net cost should be the same or less, but with cash going into the pockets of construction people, installers, retrofitters, infrastructure operators across the nation.
The municipal bond market is in trouble, and Congress wants to grant it a federal guarantee.
Investors are concerned about ability of state and local governments to pay off their municipal bonds, and lately, some governments have even been experiencing trouble raising money through bonds.
Congressional Democrats will soon push measures for the federal government to reinsure, help purchase and regulate municipal bonds, according to Congressional staff and industry sources.
where is all this money coming from ? Borrowing 50% on the dollar isnt enough, sure go for 60%...dick heads...
Elizabeth Edwards responds to the news of economic "green shoots"
"... I cried and screamed, I went to the bathroom and threw up."
Elizabeth Edwards: How I Survived John's Affair - TIME
This latest intervention would:
Create a liquidity facility through the Federal Reserve to purchase municipal bonds, much like what the Federal Reserve does with mortgage-backed and federal government bonds.
Form a temporary federal government program to reinsure municipal bond insurers. Almost all municipalities buy bond insurance because it boosts their credit ratings. The cost of the insurance is usually lower than the higher interest payments that come with a lower credit rating. If the insurer runs into financial trouble, then the credit ratings on the municipal bonds drop because there is doubt about the insurance. Government backing would eliminate that concern.
Provide additional regulation for financial advisors to municipalities. Many, including former Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Arthur Levitt, have been calling for stronger oversight of the municipal bond market in the wake of pay-to-play bond scandals, in which banks and advisers have made gifts or political contributions, and received financing jobs along with the fees for those jobs.
Well, the Media is damn near dead, so that can get re-invented and become a growth industry, as people find new modes to communication to attach advertising to from the remaining 13 businesses that need to advertise.
The guy who fancies himself the nation's financial stockpicker, credit-card planner, industrial-CEO firer, and health-care-system designer (Obama) ran his own finances like the stereotypical HELOCed yuppie: Zero Hedge: Was Obama A Subprime Borrower?
Obama's solution for his own finances was to get elected senator, so I wait for his recovery package to include making every American a senator.
Fiduciary Doodie
Brings up the point. Will they guarantee all Muni bonds oustanding or just the ones written going forward? The old investors may get burned.
If I could hit a fastball, I could join the Harrisburg Senators and make a couple thousand a month playing minor-league baseball. But that's probably it for my Senatorial aspirations.
“It looks to me now as if the markets are now pricing in a rapid recovery, that they’re pricing in a V-shaped recession, which I consider extremely unlikely,” Krugman said at a forum in Shanghai today. “The market seems to be looking as if this is going to be an average recession, but it’s not.”
I think they're pricing in the same thing they've been pricing in for years and years now:
Gross moral hazard courtesy of the Federal Reserve.
I was reading Zero Hedge and something was bugging me. You get used to it after awhile but it's easy to forget the big picture:
Hedge funds for the most part are ponzi units. You don't have all this talk about quant funds in a normal economy. The fact that we have all these hedge funds is consistent with ongoing ponzi finance. Not a reformed "post-crash" economy.
Needless to say the commodity and emerging markets are starting to look like 2007 all over again.
What's really changed?
I sense an Operation Market Garden moment coming for Timmy and Ben:
Lt. General Frederick "Boy" Browning: I've just been on to Monty. He's very proud and pleased.
Major General Urquhart: Pleased?
Lt. General Frederick "Boy" Browning: Of course. He thinks Market Garden was 90% successful.
Major General Urquhart: But what do you think?
Lt. General Frederick "Boy" Browning: Well, as you know, I always felt we tried to go a bridge too far.
CR,
You make a solid case for negative, slightly negative, extended low levels and on and on yet you conclude "recession." We are in a recession now. How is it that with almost no good news that we merely stay in recession? For but one instance, we need +350k employment to stay even. Even under the most optimistic views we will be well under that for years. IMO continuing employment losses will drop us lower not hold us here at mere recession.
I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that virtually every last municipality in the country that participated in the free-for-all of getting mark to model money from the homebuilders, spent it as quick as it came in, or as it's turning out, counted their chicks before the eggs were hatched.
their only way out really, is to turn their police departments into money-making-machines that give out tickets as fast as they can write them, an ad hoc tax that most people are prompt about paying...
Tim,
'Brings up the point. Will they guarantee all Muni bonds oustanding or just the ones written going forward? The old investors may get burned.'
"House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) is leading the effort and has long touted HIS investments in municipal bonds that finance public projects as a civic duty."
As long as they are not older than Frank they are safe i would presume...
I think the better analogy might be the Battle of Bulge with the Bulls as the Wermacht.
If we don't close the week under SP500 880 that will be somewhat bullish IMO. We need to give back the gains from last week.
Urqhart: "I brought $10,000 into 2008, I've come out with less than 2."
If you look at how gdp is calculated, understating inflation shows up as a more positive gdp (or less negative) gdp. Therefore, I think the main source of "growth" for the next few years will be deliberately understating inflation.
Fiduciary Doodie
Thought so. Even bigger problem. There must be half a trillion in Muni Debt including public works projects out there with various date of maturities.
I guess they don't have enough money to pump up stock market, buy bond, and short gold/oil at the same time
Fed buys 6B in the shorter end bond market today. China's dumping big it seems
Bond Ticker - Bonds Center - Yahoo! Finance
"What's really changed?"
Wish I had time to really write out my thoughts on this. I see a "W" recovery myself, to always remind liberals of George Bush. There's been a minor burnoff of the debt but not enough to reset the credit cycle like in 1931. So I see a jagged seesaw as that debt runs up again, then falters again, etc. That's pretty much what's been happening in Japan for twenty years. The Feds can call it a recovery, right?
WASHINGTON (AP) — The financial health of Social Security and Medicare, the government’s two biggest benefit programs, have worsened because of the severe recession, and Medicare is now paying out more than it receives.
Trustees of the programs said Tuesday that Social Security will start paying out more in benefits than it collects in taxes in 2016, one year sooner than projected last year, and the giant trust fund will be depleted by 2037, four years sooner.
Medicare is in even worse shape. The trustees said the program for hospital expenses will pay out more in benefits than it collects this year and will be insolvent by 2017, two years earlier than the date projected in last year’s report.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the head of the trustees group, said the new reports were a reminder that “the longer we wait to address the long-term solvency of Medicare and Social Security, the sooner those challenges will be upon us and the harder the options will be.”
Geithner said that President Barack Obama was committed to working with Congress to find ways to control runaway growth in both public and private health care expenditures, noting the promise Monday by major health care providers to trim costs by $2 trillion over the next decade.
Not One Cent,
Bingo!
Assume Crash Positions,
Good one too.
Assume Crash Positions (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 5/12/2009 - 7:19 pm
I think the better analogy might be the Battle of Bulge with the Bulls as the Wermacht.
Picture Obama's stimulus army singing Panzerlied.
In Godwin we trust.
Funny story, Car-Sharing Fails To Save Money
Maryland is paying $1,100 per month per vehicle, for the use of 28 cars for a car sharing service.
Fast forward 100 days in, the cars have only been used for 84 hours or 16 times, or $1300 per hour of driving when local limo service is at $60 per hour
The kicker: "County officials attribute the slow start to the reluctance of county employees to give up their own county-assigned vehicles. "
At least the anticipated budget tightening will help bring in smart over stupid
March of the Bubble:
Obama's Keynesian stimulus Panzerlied: YouTube - Panzerlied
Fiduciary Doodie (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/12/2009 - 12:18 pm
"House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) is leading the effort and has long touted HIS investments in municipal bonds that finance public projects as a civic duty."
As long as they are not older than Frank they are safe i would presume...
Rumor has it Barney likes the young ones better.
FASBall right down the middle, called strike.
Turbo
exactly
yeah GDP numbers as advertised are a total farce
when adjusted for population growth, increased money supply andd the true costs of lifes necesities
our standard of living has been stagnant for decades
FSK's Guide to Reality: Real GDP is Decreasing, 1990-2007
and how CPI is fudged
Shadow Government Statistics - Home Page
scrooge McDuck thanks for the link
so we hear RobDawg, so we hear.....
OT: Had the in-laws over for lunch today. They practically screamed at me for not pouring everything back into stocks. They kept repeating how much I had "lost" this month. These are the same people who have had to make do with a 35% reduced retirement income last October. They are ready for the next shearing.
So just what is behind this green surge today? Looks like Kermit slapped on some sneakers and is practicing his hang time...doesn't it make your head hurt to think about all this money pumping that is going on. The mind boggles. My dollar feels cheaper every day.
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 5/12/2009 - 1:56 pm
Jeff "10% growth is in the bag" Immelt
Once again why should we listen to those who didn't see it coming in the first place?
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Tim
I absolutely agree. But if these guys, who normally are so full of it and have no qualms about fudging things on the upside, can't come up with anything more positive to say than this, you know it's ugly out there.
"Was there a rumor I missed that made the markets rocket up 80 points in 5 minutes?"
rumor has it the fed is buying.
The music selection of the bubble really ought to be "Entry of the Gladiators", as it's circus appropriate.
"Ah, ah,ah,ah Staying Alive..." - SP500
So just what is behind this green surge today? Looks like Kermit slapped on some sneakers and is practicing his hang time
Careful of that overhead supply.
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said that home prices are an "Achilles' heel" for the U.S. economy, but he is seeing "seeds of bottoming" in housing, Dow Jones reports.
So now we know whats moving the markets upward!
BANK FORECLOSES ON VICTORIA GOTTI'S ESTATE
Last updated: 3:13 pm
May 11, 2009
Posted: 1:20 pm
May 11, 2009
Here's the reality: the Gotti's gotta go.
The bank has been given the go-ahead to foreclose on Victoria Gotti's palatial estate on Long Island -- the same used in the TV reality show "Growing Up Gotti" -- saying she owes a whopping $650,000 in mortgage payments, according to court paper made public today.
Gotti's lender, JP Morgan Chase, claims the daughter of the late Gambino crime family boss John "Dapper Don" Gotti -- owes them the staggering amount after she failed to make payments for two years starting in September 2006, court records reveal.
Soylent Green Shoots is people.
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/12/2009 - 3:31 pm reply Ignore user The music selection of the bubble really ought to be "Entry of the Gladiators", as it's circus appropriate.
After 6 years maybe this.....
Dailymotion - BARBRA STREISAND - SEND IN THE CLOWNS.1 - une vidéo Musique
"Was there a rumor I missed that made the markets rocket up 80 points in 5 minutes?"
"Zara Coming to Florida Mall"
"South Shore Plaza may get Target"
big boost for SPG today.
lucifer
You mean they will have to get...jobs?
Wish I had time to really write out my thoughts on this. I see a "W" recovery myself, to always remind liberals of George Bush.
I can see rebounds in Asia and some of the emerging markets if they don't choke on excess capacity. But for the U.S. I gotta see some sign of life in consumer spending before buying into any kind of material rebound.
GWB is my least favorite liberal president, ignoring all the social conservatism stuff of course.
"Greenspan is seeing "seeds of bottoming" in housing, Dow Jones reports."
The Kiss of Death.
Sell into the rally!!!!!
Nice to see a positive suggestion.
AMF
Only regulars on the board will get that one.
CR: "...So where will the growth come from?..."
Guns, ammunition, gold, and gardening supplies, sir.
See Ruger vs. S&P 500:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=RGR#chart3:symbol=rgr;range=6m;compare=^gspc;indicator=volumema;charttype=ohlc;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
and you know what those seeds are going to produce....weeds!! Woohoo, or better yet, Cannabis. Or who cares, long as they are green shoots.
Cant they just put AG out to pasture already. The guy is a hack has been and if anything, should be publicly stoned. I mean with real stones, ya know. (who threw that?)
"Greenspan is seeing "seeds of bottoming" in housing, Dow Jones reports."
The Kiss of Death.
Sell into the rally!!!!!
HAHAHA....
Hmmm to hold or sell gold?
To me, it looks like there's natural resistance around 950. I'd hold until there, then move my stops up.
Of course, next, there's that big wall in the sky at 1000.
Couple of my little microcap juniors have been rocking lately. NXG.
Great so green shoots and seeds of bottoming...now we need the manure of growth, the flowering of hope...you know I use analogies because I am an idiot when it comes to markets and the economy and that is all I have available to communicate my feelings on the subject, but god almighty I don't need it from the 'experts' too! This selective use of individual nuggets of data is beyond insulting.
general motors to cut 21,000 jobs and 2,500 dealers across america
GM proposes painful downsizing in bid for survival - Los Angeles Times
but dont worry, those jobs and hose factories will appear under the GM banner somewheere else
uhm.. like china
If GM moves the jobs to China it will be because they believe the Chinese will be buying those cars... I read somewhere that China is now the largest car market in the world - passed the US this spring as our sales were tanking.
There is precious little incentive to bring cars back from Asia into the US - parts 'yes', cars 'no'.
'Bamboo Shoots'...
Greenspan Shoots, Giacomin makes a kick-save and a beauty and covers up.
There'll be a face-off coming up...
Thats Ballgame Goat Herders wrote (quote ap) at 1221
"Medicare is in even worse shape. The trustees said the program for hospital expenses will pay out more in benefits than it collects this year and will be insolvent by 2017, two years earlier than the date projected in last year’s report."
it was the medicare part D non negotiatiable perscription drug benefit, un funded by prez bush and the then republican controlled congress that pushed this rock off the cliff
no tax dedicated to this benefit!!
but then again the objective since 1980 was to feed the federal budget pig the tax and spend democrats built until it burst and thus knock out liberal social service programs
sucess!...but unplanned outcome...the military industrial complex will be shattered as well, either before or after we go the way of rome
leaving corporations to rule (BTW the bill of rights doesnt apply to you when you are at work and on company territory...they can tell you what to say, what to ware and what to think, and your desk (its their desk) your locker and under many circumstances your person can be searched and, of course your 2nd amendment right is pfff)
salute the multi national corporation (can we have a company flag please?...and an army too...hahahah the microsoft marines....has a nice ring to it dont you think!
dryfly
Are we simply subsidizing GM's U-Hauls?
Tim waiting for 2012,
An publicity hungry, aging, bitchy woman and her spoilt brats getting jobs.. now that is change I can believe in.
Yes, it's a bud-ding economy!
the new vision of helicopter Ben and his treasury minions...
Part 1 WKRP - Flying Turkey?
Part 2; YouTube - WKRP Turkey Drop "As God as my witness I thought turkeys could fly"
Great Article
PrudentBear
Mock Turtle.
The democrats didn't exactly go along kicking and screaming either. As long as the defense industries produced good union jobs they happily went a long.
This is "M" shaped recession.
I keep looking at that rally in the stockmarket in 1930, and I wonder if we are seeing basically the same thing today.
"I think the main source of "growth" for the next few years will be deliberately understating inflation."
Bingo. The US doesn't want to pay extra on TIPS, COLA's,...
Anything too volatile can be declared excluded from CPI. Or the miracle of hedonics: those guys on the juice throw harder and hit farther, so the value of a baseball game ticket must be worth more...
Mr. Andrea Mitchell ought to just go find that rock he crawled out from under and redeposit himself.
Yancey Ward
i believe that was real bottom picking (real buying with real dollars) this is leveraged buying, borrowing and manipulation.
The "Pump & Dump to end all pump & dumps".
Sometime from now, we'll recognize this period for what it is. Saving banks. Nothing more or less.
Yancey: yup. Lots of people thought the great depression ended in early 1930, even before it was named.
A stock market rise based on alan greespan's word in 2009.. hoocoodanode?
U.S. Stocks Rise as Greenspan Says Housing Bottom May Be Near
Most U.S. Stocks Decline as Share Sales Raise Dilution Concern - Bloomberg.com
By Elizabeth Stanton
May 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks erased an earlier drop as former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the housing market may be on the verge of recovery and financial markets should continue improving.
Mock Turtle, excellent summary. The only thing that can possibly rein in corps is a gov, so they bought it and broke it.
The best place to look for a growth industry for the US is in energy. The one bright spot for my state (OR) is solar and wind power mfg companies. Replacing light bulbs with white-LED light fixtures would cut electricity demand by 90%. Retrofitting homes that use heating oil now to use natural gas would reduce oil usage in the northeast US significantly. Massive amounts of natural gas have been discovered in the US recently; google "Marcellus Shale" or "Barnett Shale".
"I think the main source of "growth" for the next few years will be deliberately understating inflation."
Deflation means a nominal GDP decline is really GDP growth.
I keep looking at that rally in the stockmarket in 1930, and I wonder if we are seeing basically the same thing today.
I hate hearing that we're so much smarter now than the folks in the 1930s that our knowledge is so much greater. Yep, that's why with had widespread neg-am in mortgages, corporate loans, etc.. over the past 5 years, right? Because we're so much smarter than we were in the 1930s.
dryfly wrote
"If GM moves the jobs to China it will be because they believe the Chinese will be buying those cars... I read somewhere that China is now the largest car market in the world - passed the US this spring as our sales were tanking."
i agree,we will likely export few if any cars to 2nd world nations
cars will be imported to the usa from china and india for our domestic consumption
and maybe even some built (mostly by robots eventually) in the usa,
interms of current account ballance and cars, we are effed
Lucifer, he says the same thing every year - he will eventually be correct!
best wishes
Shill true. Most conspiracies are not fun or sexy like UFO cover-ups. Most of them are designed to rob you in your sleep. Not fun or sexy at all.
U.S. Stocks Rise as Greenspan Says Housing Bottom May Be Near
Greenspan spoke, and left with his hand wide open " That will be $1 million large please "
Craigslist advertisement in 2019:
2005 Honda Pilot. Low 293,000 miles. Certified to have never been dealer serviced. Several boxes of service parts. Added value!: 6 (six) NEW IN BOX! platinum spark plugs. $240,000 obo or 4 oz gold.
Shill true. Most conspiracies are not fun or sexy like UFO cover-ups. Most of them are designed to rob you in your sleep. Not fun or sexy at all.
"Giacomin makes a kick-save and a beauty"
Ed-die, Ed-die, got laid off after years of loyal service, and the fans almost pitchforked the owners.
hey chopper ben,
don't forget to pick up some GS at the market.
Are we simply subsidizing GM's U-Hauls?
Hard to call direct payments a 'subsidy' - like calling a chain saw murder a 'personal foul'... on the other hand I'd rather see them expand in Asia selling to Asians - that actually might be a good business model where they could turn a profit and we tax payers might get paid back [as opposed to trying to sell to flat broke busted US tax payer consumers].
Tim waiting 2012
i admitt you are correct...the dems went along, and were often boosters of the M/I complex
out here in WA long ago...we had the two most powerfull leaders in the senate
magneson and jackson, both dems...and boy did the M/I spending flow
How about that drop in Federal receipts, year over year -- 34%!
http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0409.pdf
Not as bad as California's sales tax and income tax drops of 50% in April. But, I have faith in Obama, that he can soon surpass Ahhnold.
"The one bright spot for my state (OR) is solar "
Dude....
it rains there, all the time.
No more "green shoots" for you!
The main conundrum in the market right now is how do we move from "better" economic data to "good" economic data. That kind of move will require the consumer to start spending a bit more again. Nobody expects the frenetic spending of the pre-crash era, but some kind of return to normalish spending would be a huge positive.
This blogger from WSJ is hallucinating.
I love it. Intel = too big to succeed. Banks = too big to fail.
New Green Shoot business idea!
Lightweight Foldable Granite Countertops, suitable for installation in tents.
The fact that we have all these hedge funds is consistent with ongoing ponzi finance. Not a reformed "post-crash" economy.
ac,
That is what happens when you have a central bank and a government hell bent on preserving bogus credit. Real capital does not need government support. Bogus credit does.
Sadly, bogus credit is seen as the lifeblood of our eCONomy. The banksters still rule.
rb-
You're right that S**t makes my head spin... right round
Remember an episode of 'the simpsons' in which a smooth-talking conman sells solar powered monorail trains to springfield?
220MPH Solar-Powered Bullet Train on Arizona Horizon
220MPH Solar-Powered Bullet Train on Arizona Horizon | Inhabitat
Jorge Chapa
Travelers going from Tucson to Phoenix may soon be blazing across the desert in speeding solar bullet trains propelled by the sun’s rays. Hot on the heels of President Obama’s plan for High Speed Rail in the US comes the news that Arizona-based Solar Bullet LLC is proposing a new 220mph bullet train that will be entirely powered by the sun and will make the trip in 30 minutes flat.
bearly (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/12/2009 - 7:53 pm
New Green Shoot business idea!
Lightweight Foldable Granite Countertops, suitable for installation in tents.
Stainless steel tent flaps for all.
As God is my witness I though Treasuries could fly.....
broward
more than 50% of eastern oregon and washington have sun more than 250 days out of the year
the cascades are the H2O curtains...wester WA and OR r green the east is much (not all ) desert
Why does everything have to be a Chauncey Gardner mind-fuck nowadays?
It takes like 100 days for things to ripen in the garden, and everything starts out as a Green Shoot regardless of what the final product looks like.
cars will be imported to the usa from china and india for our domestic consumption
you must mean for THEIR internal consumption... I doubt anyone will be increasing car exports to the US UNLESS the dollar strengthens... to do so now would in effect be like throwing dollars & dollar assets in the ocean.
People can't have it both ways... growing exports to USA & perpetually strong dollar & dollar denominated assets WITHOUT some kind of major central bank intervention from the exporters.
I was thinking screen-printed tapestries for tent insulation in the winter..many colors and styles for easy accessorizing.
Lucifer
Love that episode. Lenord Nemoy. There is a lot of people walking around in Green Frog costumes with a pot asking for money to build the green future.
http://www.fancydresskids.com/images/catalog/8-freddy-frog.gif
"more than 50% of eastern oregon and washington have sun more than 250 days out of the year"
Thanks, Mock, I already knew that.
Can't a guy have a little fun here?!
LOL Man
Who is picking up some bargains before the bell closes????
Posted by Tyler Durden at 3:31 PM
Now that Merrill Lynch has upgraded every single REIT and has a price target of +/- infinity, (conveniently pocketing over $100 million in the process), the company can focus on more pressing issues at hand. And no, not redecorating Thain's legacy office in the neo-uber-criminal style). Instead, the bank has sent not one, not two, but a whopping six cease and desist order to Zero Hedge.
Here's the 6 posts Merrill sent cease and desist orders for. Pass and posts the links on the internets to keep them alive:
Blogger: Page not found
ZeroHedge quotes
Blogger: Page not found
Blogger: Page not found
Blogger: Page not found
Blogger: Page not found
Mustard seeds of bottoming. Sounds like a breastfed baby's dirty diaper.
"House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) is leading the effort and has long touted HIS investments in municipal bonds that finance public projects as a civic duty."
The new faith based investing - Guilt Based Investing
I heard things are so bad out there, that Thomas Kinkade is painting houses now.
CalculatedRisk,
I am amazed that people are not lynching greenspan yet.. in a less "civilized" age false prophets were sacrificed to please the gods (once it was evident that they were fakes).
//Lucifer, he says the same thing every year - he will eventually be correct!//
New "Build America Bond" slogans
"You're paying for it anyways"
"HOPE now. Or else."
"Build America before we tear this Muther down"
broward,
A big chunk of semiconductor mfg capacity in OR has been converted or is in the process of being converted to production of solar cells for worldwide sale. It's the silver lining to the tanking of the PC/flash memory/DRAM industry. Most of the investment has been from foreign companies buying the facilities and converting them.
"more than 50% of eastern oregon and washington have sun more than 250 days out of the year"
Thanks, Mock, I already knew that.
Can't a guy have a little fun here?!
What's the big deal... all they need is a really, really long extension cord... from the PVs out in the eastern desert back to Portland.
Brings up the point. Will they guarantee all Muni bonds oustanding or just the ones written going forward? The old investors may get burned
I think FDIC will wind up guaranteeing all of it, else there'll be capital flight.
The way I would play it would be to wait until, say, Cali has an auction failure for its Revenue Anticipation Notes or Michigan after a GM BK is in full bloom.
Then you buy the worst 9% coupons from Inland Empire GO bonds or Detroit sewer bonds, short treasuries and reap the coupon.
Turn those machines back on!
more than 50% of eastern oregon and washington have sun more than 250 days out of the year
Hell, at the poles they have sunlight all day for a good part of the year, don't think they're good solar candidates though.
Tim waiting for 2012,
If 'green' was workable, they would not have to beg for money.. people would give them money
//There is a lot of people walking around in Green Frog costumes with a pot asking for money to build the green future.//
Immelt: "Things certainly have stabilized and now the goal is to see where growth goes in the second half of the year."
Yes, that's the fun, see where the mess spreads. Push harder. Nice work Jeffie.
I caught the red-eye Capital Flight back to D.C., and was seated next to some obnoxious politician, which means it could have been any of them.
So where will the growth come from?
CR,
I think you and others here are missing one of the fundamental strengths of our new (e)CONomy.
Many decades ago, $1 of new debt created $1 of new GDP. During 2008, $6 of new debt created $1 of GDP growth. See the trend? We are now so wealthy, we can create more and more debt (money) with less and less output/growth.
And here's the best part. Nominal GDP is now declining against rising money creation. We've reached eCONomic nirvana. Free wealth! It's like perpetual motion only you can spend it!
It really is different this time.
dryfly
after the dollar has been thoroughly trounced, yeah ,maybe then indian and chinese cars will be too expensive
but how the heck will an america mired in represscion (depression recession hybrid)
be able to compete with a 2000 dollar or 3000 dollar tata????
or the cherry
i guess, gm will make cars in china for chinese consumption...and for american consumption too
Marge, whining: There's a family of opossum in the closet.
Homer: I call the big one bitey.
Tucson to Phoenix, North Haverbrook to Brockton, it's all good.
Immelt is looking to do an Immelman Turn...
I wonder what color his parachute is?
"The one bright spot for my state (OR) is solar "
Dude....
it rains there, all the time.""""
except for the summer when it doesn't rain at all.
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei,
He has a parachute?
//Immelt is looking to do an Immelman Turn...
I wonder what color his parachute is?//
I've test-driven $3000 Tatas, and there's no comparison compared to original factory equipment...
A bit of a stiff drive.
Soon, $6 of debt creates -$1 (negative one dollar) of GDP.
"This blogger from WSJ is hallucinating. "
WSJ thinks there is a 15 Pe on the SP500
but how the heck will an america mired in represscion (depression recession hybrid)
be able to compete with a 2000 dollar or 3000 dollar tata????
or the cherry
By the time they are landed here & distributed they won't be $2000-3000 anymore. Not in dollars... not unless their central banks keep bucking up the dollar [which means they really cost more once the dollar asset losses at the central bank level are factored in]...
Credit markets improving? For who? What is he looking at? This optimism with the news that Advanta is halting all lending, banks are recinding consumer credit? Is balance sheet repair the same as credit markets?
I don't get it. We are just about to crest on this roller coaster.
But the M--ket is always right!.. Krugman is blaspheming our God.. the only true God
//Still, Paul Krugman, Princeton University’s Nobel Prize- winning economist, said global economic prospects don’t justify the two-month rally that has restored $8.9 trillion to stock markets around the world.
“It looks to me now as if the markets are now pricing in a rapid recovery, that they’re pricing in a V-shaped recession, which I consider extremely unlikely,” Krugman said at a forum in Shanghai today. “The market seems to be looking as if this is going to be an average recession, but it’s not//
LOL.
+1
angry saver
yeah like a drunk that can handle more and more booze and still standing...till he isnt
(speaking from personal experience)
Nature adheres to the Pareto principle (80/20 rule). The middle-class illusion that was modeled on a Gaussian (normal) distribution was based an unsustainable rate of credit expansion to fuel asset appreciation & consumption.
In reality, there has been limited investment in core productive technologies, and there are few who have the necessary skills in which to adequately differentiate from global wage arbitrage. The end result is/will be both higher unemployment and stagnant, if not declining, real wages.
Our current level of national/public debt couldn't possibly be supported during the boom times; it is ludicrous to think it will not either be defaulted and/or inflated away given our present economic realities. The bottom line is that we simply do not generate enough wealth to warrant our current level of consumption. We have been borrowing to make up the difference. This borrowing is soon coming to an end.
The only remaining puzzle are the geo-strategic moves to be played out in the ME to secure our source(s) of oil. It appears there may be some recalcitrant nation-states who may not wish to be paid for their valuable commodities with a rapidly depreciating $USD.
Oh well, they'll soon find out why we really are in Iraq. Hint: Yes Virginia, it really was all about blood for oil.
I agree.. though they are more firmer and have more support for riding.
//I've test-driven $3000 Tatas, and there's no comparison compared to original factory equipment...//
Nature does not care about which rule you think it follows.
//Nature adheres to the Pareto principle (80/20 rule). //
i guess, gm will make cars in china for chinese consumption...and for american consumption too
I doubt the last part... again - it is cheaper to build them here NOW than bring them here... throw in dollar devaluation and it becomes way more expensive.
You might make the parts in Asia but NOT the final assembly build, not the 'boxes'.
The only way we go back to being a huge importer of cars is if the Immaculate Recovery works out the way bulls suggest... that we go back to 2004... then we make SUVs and import 'small autos'... if that doesn't happen then we drive used SUVs until the wheels fall off and assemble small autos.
Again assuming a long drawn out 'L shaped [not quite a] recovery'...
Kel-El-Erian was $uperman's father, according to legend.
Oskar Kennedy spotted a fellow calling, "Turtles, man. Turtles." He writes:
Hear: Elizabeth Warren Checks In - Planet Money Blog : NPR
I have an indicator for you. Five.That was the number of baby turtles, in two plastic bins, that I saw for sale by a man walking from car to car on the Market-Frankford El in Philadelphia last Friday.I've seen lots of people selling stuff on the El. Bootleg DVDs and mix CDs, colognes and perfumes, candy and snacks, watches and jewelry. I once saw two guys negotiate the purchase of an engagement ring. And there's been a noticeable increase in the number of "vendors" walking up and down the train. But this is the first time I've ever seen someone selling anything that was alive.On second thought, maybe the indicator should be four. That was how many baby turtles the man had when he walked past me in the other direction about 15 minutes later.
<"It's A Good Time To Work For Uncle Sam"
Even real prophets weren't always liked. Jeremiah was stoned to death in exile after his decades of gloomy prophecy came true.
He couldn't stop pounding on moral hazard, but no one wanted to hear about it. At least they knew enough to make sure he was heard posthumously, as moral hazard always comes back to haunt.
Pets or Food? in the city of brotherly love...
Vonbeck of course it comes from that right of right wing network... CBS
swamp otis,
Your take on S&P 500 earnings is spot on. The 2008 GAAP P/E was ~ 57. The estimated 2009 GAAP P/E is ~ 30. The estimated 2010 GAAP P/E is ~ 25. The shills like to use operating earnings and project short term earnings growth rates forward. It's all bunk to sell crappy financial services.
Stocks have underperformed long dated treasuries for > 40 years. You can figure out why that inCONvenient fact is not being discussed on the financial propaganda networks.
BTW, my operating golf handicap is always way better than my actual handicap. The difference? I only count my good shots.
Was It a Sucker's Rally?
You can have a jobless recovery but you can't have a profitless one.
Was It a Sucker's Rally? - WSJ.com
By ANDY KESSLER
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has bounced an astounding 30% from its March 9 low of 6547. Is this the dawn of a new era? Are we off to the races again?
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei,
Turtle Soup... not a bad idea..
I have an even better one.. buy male and female turtles.. get them to reproduce in blighted california houses with damaged swimming pools and then sell even more turtles.
Diablo,
Sound like just another shell-game...
WASHINGTON (AP) - Mortgage giant Freddie Mac says it needs $6.1 billion in additional government aid as the cost to taxpayers from the housing market bust keeps rising. ¶
The McLean, Va.-based company, seized by federal regulators in September, posted a loss of $9.9 billion, or $3.14 per share, for the quarter ending March 31. That compares with a loss of $149 million, or 66 cents a share, in the year-ago period. ¶
The results were driven by $8.8 billion in credit losses due to soaring delinquency rates and falling home prices, and $7.1 billion in writedowns of the value of its mortgage-backed securities. ¶
The request for federal aid is Freddie Mac’s third since the takeover, bringing its total up to more than $51 billion. ¶
You know maybe it is time to nationalize everything. We all work for the Feds now baby...get paid in food stamps redeemable for your weekly food quota. Paid medical. You work till you die, no need for retirement concerns. Free birth control after two children. Free government transportation for everyone. Standardize testing tells us all what we were meant to do! Utopia here we come!
"I once saw two guys negotiate the purchase of an engagement ring."
The devil should know that in a lot of places people still negotiate the purchase of the bride.