Oh that's why posting is so slow, there is a huge sell-off going on in the market. All the finance/stock guys are busy screaming at the top of their lungs or whatever it is they do when not surfing the net escort reviews and insider information.
Kudlow just had a little light bulb go off over his head as to the employment consequences of the collateral damage of a GM bankruptcy. Kinda sad actually.
Guess we are going to have to wait and see what the final outcome is going to turn out to be. All hands on deck at GM from what I read, definitely a tough time still. Bankruptcy or no bankruptcy in my opinion they have to figure out what they are going to do 5 steps ahead. Ford is looking up though? I don't foresee them leaving any time soon.
Vito Andolini (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 11:04 pm reply Ignore user The expect to sell 3 Hummers by the end of May? That's gotta exceed forecast!
When we asked our sales guys "how many can you sell? " they confidently responded: "Dozens".
I believe that the two goals of US banks earning their way to solvency and GDP growth returning to trend rates are mutually exclusive. In order for the banks to increase their earnings, they will need to charge more interest for loans and greater fees on customer accounts. That obviously reduces demand for loans. Before US consumers and businesses can return to spending and investing at trend rates, they need to pay down some significant portion of the mountain of debt that they owe. Reducing the amount of bank assets reduces the earning capacity of the banks.
"A piece of this puzzle not often discussed is the credit default swap (CDS) liabilities the government would face if GM or Ford were allowed to file chapter 11. More outstanding CDS contracts exist on GM and Ford than any other publicly traded company right now. Even by the most conservative estimates, the amount of CDS exposure on GM and Ford is at least 10 times the amount of their outstanding debt."
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 11:19 am reply Ignore user Wow capital one needed money after all.
Wasnt the premise and major flaw IMHO of the stress tests was that it was based on future earnings and very leniant at that...figure cap one not holding mortgage debt but CC and auto went with a very high and safe rate of return and called it future earnings...not taking into account what BO's town hall meeting may hold against them, nor what exponential defaults will do....when BK HO go looking for new houses and cant get them cause of credit scores... it will be a WTF menatility...
Capital one needs capital, but they dont repay anything,like on a MBS , CDS they are more incumbent on their lending to consumer, doubt they are heavy on reinvestment on the backside...
BYZANTINE ACTUAL TO HELICOPTER BEN
BYZANTINE ACTUAL TO HELICOPTER BEN
YOUR EIGHT BP MOVE IN THE LONG BOND YIELD LOOKS LIKE A KILL
REPEAT, STRIKE IS GOOD
THE EXTERNAL CREDITORS WILL NEVER FIGURE IT OUT.
Unlike the secured lenders in the Chrysler case, bondholder must work through their trustee. If the required amount of bondholders agree, the minority can not file an object separately.
Random; but can someone tell my why Delphi Corp is screaming over the past 2 weeks? A co-worker of mine with ties to auto-industry was telling me to buy it as it could potentially quadruple...
Mexican minister: swine flu could cut GDP by 1 pct
Associated Press, 05.11.09, 08:57 AM EDT
Mexico's foreign minister says the swine flu crisis could reduce her country's GDP by as much as 1 percent.
Last week Mexican Finance Minister Agustin Carstens said the reduction would be between 0.3 and 0.5 percent of Mexican output.
Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa said in an interview published Monday with the Spanish daily ABC the economic loss stems in part from international reaction to the swine flu outbreak that began in Mexico last month. Forbes.com File Not Found
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 8:38 am
I think the CDS's holders get the finger this time. They have to draw the line somewhere. Right?:
I don't think so. The precedent has been set for 100% payout, if the CDS was written by AIG. If GM was smart, it would buy CDS worth 1,000x its own debt, go chapter 11, and have AIG fund its reorg. Magic.
OT, but was driving through my boyhood town the other day to visit parent and saw that the Rita's Ice was for still for sale. Also selling the car wash behind as part of the whole package.
Been on the market for 9 months now.
Told my eldest that no, Dad's not going to be "investing" in a Rita's anytime soon.
If Geithner offered similar deal to the too big to fail banks don't you think they would have an easier time raising capital like they trying to do now ?
Or is it simply that the American taxpayers are the bagholders for all those toxic assets now on the Fed balance sheet ( transferred from the the too big to fail banks )
"the risk in the market, in our view, is much higher than it was the last time we were close to current market prices back in early January, for the simple reason that we believe professional investors have covered their shorts, lifted their hedges and lowered their cash positions in favor of being long the market. "
"While it may be the case that the pace of economic decline is no longer as negative as it was at the peak of the post-Lehman credit contraction, the reality is that employment, output, organic personal income and retail sales are still in a fundamental downtrend. "
How stressful were the stress tests? the Fed made it easy as pie
Everything is negotiable: the banks pushed back against the government's initial capital requirements. which would seem to be an invitation for some mark-to-market accounting magic in the coming quarters.
Rise of the Zombies: Night of the living bank dead 2.0
Take this invitation
Bishop's Queen to Pawn
All of us were taken
All that was, is gone
Of this information
Shames us, one and all
Where's my compensation
Watching others fall
Welcome to the fall
Everything is useless
Nothing works at all
Nothing ever matters
Welcome to the fall
.
.
.
No, I'm stuck living with Fast Eddie Rendell in PA. I just don't see a seasonal disposable income business as a good spot for the money. Eldest was smitten with the concept of "free" Gelatis.
As to F, if C and GM both go bankruptcy, then the pension/health costs that F continues to bear would make competition with the others almost impossible.
Friend of mine works for F nearby and told me in late 2007 that the company had basically put everything in hock in order to get cash to survive.
I hope he lands in a good place and can publish his thoughts.
Absolutely. Andy Xie appears to have bounced back OK from his liberation. And if Rosenberg cannot publish, he can blog, mimeo, or smoke message signal (SMS).
"and we say that with all deference to the stress tests (which given the less-than-dire economic scenarios, along with the changes to mark-to-market accounting, were destined to reveal healthy results)."
Sorry I am off topic, but my favorite Superman episode is on TV rright now - you know, the one where he attempts to save Healthcare, boldly and swiftly IIRC
nope, there is an old saying, show the greedy one 5 cents & you can do with them everything you want... (that's the principle all of the marketing is based on.. buy one get one free or 150+% return & prices always go up, etc)
what really matters is the game theory, (IF YOU UNDERSTAND HOW TO USE IT & know all of the variables, etc)
Comrade de Chaos (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 9:45 am reply Ignore user
...what really matters is the game theory,
Sorry, Comrade. That thinking is so old economy. Game theory requires two preconditions in order to be useful; consistent rules and consistent application of the rules. Both are missing.
The Obama admin gives trillions to crooked greedy banks and Mayor Bloonberg allocates millions for retraining of ex Wall Street people and NYC now charges rent at homeless shelters Raw Story » NYC now charges rent at homeless shelters
Rosenberg is going to a Canadian Asset Manager. It's unknown if he will publish anything for the public, but it's doubtful it would be as frequent as his 3X daily publications from ML/BOFA.
On the Rita's topic, a friend and I almost started a Rita's up a few years ago. On the surface, it seems like a pretty sweet gig if you can get it setup. I got scared away by the upfront costs and the location selection process. My friend eventually went on to the next step, and spent over a year and $50k trying to get a location approved by the town and Rita's, before it finally got nixed at the last step by the state highway authorities.
I don't think the game theory is ever applied in Macro Econ. Because Macro field just has too many variables. It worked for USA vs. USSR nuclear strategy and has many other uses. (most MBA have to cover it, not that they learn much from it, apparently : ) )
Banks that must raise capital, raise capital from whom?
Last year, it was the SWFs, who won't be as generous this time around. I'd be interested in seeing if the UBS shakedown could get private clients who value secrecy to chip in. cough Barclays cough
[The Socialist in Chief is bloviating. He who could not imagine nationalizing the banks has no problem nationalizing health care.]
The reasoning seems to be on some quite slippery footing.
Why not nationalize energy ? National security
Nationalize food supply ? Everyone needs to eat
Why not auto insurance ? Save everyone money, just like health insurance
...
Rajesh wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 8:34 am
Delphi is getting helped out of bankruptcy by GM, who is going to replace it in bankruptcy court.
Actually the Auto task force denied permission for GM to buy the mission critical plants from Delphi. GM is now limiting sales of Delphi parts to dealers and recommending they not hoard (kinda like saying "The theater's on fire! Dont Panic!"). Delphi looks rather like they aren't coming out of bankruptcy so I'm not sure if team Obama is going to have the new GM entity buy the Delphi plants or if they expect GM to re-source the parts before the plants roll again (which would mean the plants aren't going to roll again any time soon). Isn't this a great ride!
The blog is still silent. Threatened by the WH? "OK, you can continue to write your NYT column, but no more blogging!" National security and all that. No wonder Krugman's in China.
The Obama admin gives trillions to crooked greedy banks and Mayor Bloonberg allocates millions for retraining of ex Wall Street people and NYC now charges rent at homeless shelters
nincompoop (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 10:15 am reply Ignore user
nallen The purchaser of the Hummer is probably looking forward to government contracts.
Hummers are not "Humvees." Those civilian things are Chevy's with bling. They have the ground clearance of a Honda CRV.
"A fresh estimate of the deficit showed it coming in at $1.84 trillion -- representing a massive 12.9 percent of gross domestic product -- in the current 2009 fiscal year that ends on September 30."
I want to hear the happy ending.
JACKIE CALMES Published: May 11, 2009
NYT
WASHINGTON — The economic crisis is already taking a toll on the Obama administration’s new budget projections, adding $90 billion to its already historically high estimates of deficits for both this fiscal year and next.
The changes, reported on Monday by the Office of Management and Budget, brings the deficit for this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, to $1.84 trillion from a February projection of $1.75 trillion. For fiscal 2010, the new estimate is $1.26 trillion, up from $1.17 trillion.
It also means the deficit will be 12.9% of gross domestic product in the fiscal year 2009 ending Sept. 30. That's up from $1.75 trillion and the estimate may rise again in the coming months. ........That deterioration underscores the fragility of the current economic situation. Outlays (spending) continues to outpace incoming cash (taxes).
Deficit up to 1.89 trillion. The last sentence is funny.
"When more of the people's sustenance is exacted through the form of taxation than is necessary to meet the just obligations of government, such exaction becomes ruthless extortion and a violation of the fundamental principles of a free government." - Grover Cleveland
" Krugman gave credit to China for vigorously implementing its own economic stimulus plan but said he had detected no commitment by Beijing to switch to a domestic demand-driven growth model that would reduce its excess savings.
"It's very hard to see how the world has a full recovery if China continues to run current account surpluses of 10 percent of GDP," he said."
"DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is open to considering moving its headquarters from Detroit, selling off U.S. plants and even renegotiating parts of its restructuring plan with its major union, the new chief executive said on Monday."
Due to the shortage of skilled labor and high cost of real estate in and around Detroit, I presume?
"GM purchased its glass-towered headquarter building known as Detroit's Renaissance Centre last year for $625 million (412.8 million pounds)."
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 1:21 pm reply Ignore user nincompoop (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 10:15 am reply Ignore user
nallen The purchaser of the Hummer is probably looking forward to government contracts.
Hummers are not "Humvees." Those civilian things are Chevy's with bling. They have the ground clearance of a Honda CRV.
But RobDawg, I doubt if some third world dictator knows or cares..... i'd buy and sell to Hugo and castro and all those f'd up african countries.... see greed is alive and well.... as is entrapeneurship.... lol
The world today seems absolutely crackers,
With financial bombs to blow us all sky high.
There's fools and idiots sitting on the trigger.
It's depressing and it's senseless, and that's why...
I like Chinese.
I like Chinese.
They manufacture most of your needs
Yet they're always friendly, and they're ready to buy Treasuries
book1 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 10:26 am
Krugman is in China picking out a retirement loft.
It would be interesting to see which languages are being studied by the children and grandchildren of our oligarchs, and how the list has changed over the last couple of decades. Wouldn't it be alarming to learn of a big switch toward one language or another?
Johnny Lee (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 1:37 pm
AU still hovers around 911. Bonds get these quickie moves, equities get the goose, where's the support for gold?
The federales don't like gold because it's messy. So it just has to sit in the ground. Who's afraid of a little cyanide and mercury?
"Tata will not brook any interference in its running of Jaguar and is now seeking finance to the tune of £1 billion from the debt market and has authorized its financial adviser, Citigroup, to find bankers willing to lend the money."
I'm increasingly convinced that the loss of all of those Cantor Fitzgerald employees was truly devastating in way which we're only beginning to understand now. Maybe they were the smartest participants in the treasury market, and most of the real 'bond vigilantes' were lost that day. Maybe the door to whole new worlds of moral hazard was opened significantly wider with their loss.
Washington. DC. Just think of all the money they'd save on freight for the billions of dollars. Plus Obama could take a train to GM HQ. It'll be easier to run both GM and the USSA.
sm_landlord (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 2:05 pm reply Ignore user MSFT has $25 billion or so in cash. They must have some acquisitions in mind.
Or maybe they think the availability to the credit markets is about to slam shut and they need more cash to carry them through our dark ages.
You don't borrow money when you need it, you borrow when you don't need it so that you can get better rates on your line of credit. They're also getting ready to press Windows 7, I'm sure there will be a huge marketing blitz. Not 3.75 billion worth, but that leaves you some play money to take advantage of competitor weakness to buy talent.
!
Who was dumb enough to bid on Hummer?
And I read the post first too.
I suppose bidding on Hummer is a guy thing.
Nemo must be on a coffee break.
whats a hummer? just a car...
The expect to sell 3 Hummers by the end of May? That's gotta exceed forecast!
Stupid guys did generally buy Hummers, it would make sense that stupid guys would buy the company.
I'll take Potent Probables for $27 Billion, Alex
nallen, maybe Arnold? They didn't disclose the bidders, but it sure seems dumb.
Vito Andolini, yeah - that would make more sense!
best to all
For both Chrysler and GM, the first bankruptcy is just the warm up act.
And in related news, bondholders are stockpiling vaseline.
An entertaining story of a Hummer dealer.
A Dealer's Big Bet Is on the Line As the Hummer Falls From Favor - NY Times
Yves Smith anticipates GM bondholders will not cooperate - and not just a minority. All of them.
So the Chrysler experience has been a classroom for all parties?
Oh that's why posting is so slow, there is a huge sell-off going on in the market. All the finance/stock guys are busy screaming at the top of their lungs or whatever it is they do when not surfing the net escort reviews and insider information.
that nytimes article is about Hummers, but they show a photo of a Humvee...
They didn't mention a word about the size of the bids, which makes me think that the bidding is for liquidation.
If Hummers were given out around the world by mermaids perched just so, i'd have no problem with the distribution plan.
Kudlow just had a little light bulb go off over his head as to the employment consequences of the collateral damage of a GM bankruptcy. Kinda sad actually.
Kudlow just had a little light bulb go off over his head as to the
I shudder to think what that looked like. Did it cause convulsions?
liz,
I suppose bidding on Hummer is a guy thing.
was that tongue in cheek? Kinda like a lap dancing??????
Kinda like we will spend 5% of our income on lap dances and not on 401's...then bitch about our losses either way?????
8}~
Guess we are going to have to wait and see what the final outcome is going to turn out to be. All hands on deck at GM from what I read, definitely a tough time still. Bankruptcy or no bankruptcy in my opinion they have to figure out what they are going to do 5 steps ahead. Ford is looking up though? I don't foresee them leaving any time soon.
Could be a guy thing on the Hummer tip. Heh.
-Best regard,
Michael Fridman
The “MAN” Experience
There is nothing in the dark that isn't there when the lights are on.
... Rod Serling
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 11:09 am reply Ignore user that nytimes article is about Hummers, but they show a photo of a Humvee...
Basel too,
never , ever questionour elite and 100% accurate and wiser MSM'rs...... tsk tsk
Vito Andolini (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 11:04 pm reply Ignore user The expect to sell 3 Hummers by the end of May? That's gotta exceed forecast!
When we asked our sales guys "how many can you sell? " they confidently responded: "Dozens".
Wow capital one needed money after all.
In case you still believed that the markets aren't gamed. Here is this piece from the WSJ.
"401(k)s Hit by Withdrawal Freezes"
401(k)s Hit by Withdrawal Freezes
I believe that the two goals of US banks earning their way to solvency and GDP growth returning to trend rates are mutually exclusive. In order for the banks to increase their earnings, they will need to charge more interest for loans and greater fees on customer accounts. That obviously reduces demand for loans. Before US consumers and businesses can return to spending and investing at trend rates, they need to pay down some significant portion of the mountain of debt that they owe. Reducing the amount of bank assets reduces the earning capacity of the banks.
Bank bondholder: good to go.
All other bondholders: get back.
GM and CDS's
"A piece of this puzzle not often discussed is the credit default swap (CDS) liabilities the government would face if GM or Ford were allowed to file chapter 11. More outstanding CDS contracts exist on GM and Ford than any other publicly traded company right now. Even by the most conservative estimates, the amount of CDS exposure on GM and Ford is at least 10 times the amount of their outstanding debt."
How To Save GM - Forbes.com
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 11:19 am reply Ignore user Wow capital one needed money after all.
Wasnt the premise and major flaw IMHO of the stress tests was that it was based on future earnings and very leniant at that...figure cap one not holding mortgage debt but CC and auto went with a very high and safe rate of return and called it future earnings...not taking into account what BO's town hall meeting may hold against them, nor what exponential defaults will do....when BK HO go looking for new houses and cant get them cause of credit scores... it will be a WTF menatility...
Capital one needs capital, but they dont repay anything,like on a MBS , CDS they are more incumbent on their lending to consumer, doubt they are heavy on reinvestment on the backside...
Today is the day observationistas like myself crave...
It's the complete flipside of talking about Trillions of dollars of high finance gone wrong.
It's all about watching people @ the post office making a special trip to get 2 cent stamps.
Well the banks could charge higher interest.
That could make them more money on fewer, smaller loans. Just saying.
BYZANTINE ACTUAL TO HELICOPTER BEN
BYZANTINE ACTUAL TO HELICOPTER BEN
YOUR EIGHT BP MOVE IN THE LONG BOND YIELD LOOKS LIKE A KILL
REPEAT, STRIKE IS GOOD
THE EXTERNAL CREDITORS WILL NEVER FIGURE IT OUT.
Unlike the secured lenders in the Chrysler case, bondholder must work through their trustee. If the required amount of bondholders agree, the minority can not file an object separately.
i once was driving through the countryside and saw a dead horse rotting in a pasture. turned to my girlfriend and said,
"can't beat that!"
Murdoch's minions at the WSJ think the S&P 500 has a PE of 15.08!
P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
glad i canceled my subscription the day News Corp bought the WSJ.
ATTN all retail investors! ATTN all retail incestors! the current shill buying is a gift.
Set tight stops!
Random; but can someone tell my why Delphi Corp is screaming over the past 2 weeks? A co-worker of mine with ties to auto-industry was telling me to buy it as it could potentially quadruple...
All quiet on the Jas front...
So according to the Forbes article we have at least 270 billion in CDS's for GM. Hang on to your wallets folks!
And why are these things still allowed?
at least the light didn't go on inside his head. kudlow with glowing eyes would surely herald the apocalypse
Mexican minister: swine flu could cut GDP by 1 pct
Associated Press, 05.11.09, 08:57 AM EDT
Mexico's foreign minister says the swine flu crisis could reduce her country's GDP by as much as 1 percent.
Last week Mexican Finance Minister Agustin Carstens said the reduction would be between 0.3 and 0.5 percent of Mexican output.
Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa said in an interview published Monday with the Spanish daily ABC the economic loss stems in part from international reaction to the swine flu outbreak that began in Mexico last month.
Forbes.com File Not Found
High interest CD'S were the investment vehicle to have in the early 1980's, as opposed to CDS's today.
The only difference being an apostrophe.
Delphi is getting helped out of bankruptcy by GM, who is going to replace it in bankruptcy court.
Byz:
lol!
unless someone was massively net long on GM, then the CDS is simply a circle-jerk. but then again, i underestimated the stupidity of AIG-FP.
GM bondholders to gubment..."Moral Hazard is a bitch".
Taxpayers to gubment..."you can't squeeze blood from a stone".
If you put your hand on the ground you can almost fell the intermittent low frequency vibrations.
Ain't that the truth!
Would have been awfully good of Forbes to identify the issuers of the swaps. Transparency and all that.
Basel
I think the CDS's holders get the finger this time. They have to draw the line somewhere. Right?:
Wait until some of Obama's folks from Chicago call the bondholders and ask them where their kids are. They will go along.
I test drove a 2010 GM Moral Haphazard the other day.
"Which Green Shoots Will Wilt First?"
by Martin Hutchinson May 11, 2009
PrudentBear
don't think they will ask, they will tell the bondholders where their children are and then ask if they want them to be left there.
wally (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 11:24 am
Bank bondholder: good to go.
All other bondholders: get back.
Quoted for truth.
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 8:38 am
I think the CDS's holders get the finger this time. They have to draw the line somewhere. Right?:
I don't think so. The precedent has been set for 100% payout, if the CDS was written by AIG. If GM was smart, it would buy CDS worth 1,000x its own debt, go chapter 11, and have AIG fund its reorg. Magic.
Is this whole auto industry situation going to be what finally causes the market to come to it's senses?
We are in serious trouble here.
AMF, you win first place in the CR talent show.
You've got to be a professional stand-up.
OT, but was driving through my boyhood town the other day to visit parent and saw that the Rita's Ice was for still for sale. Also selling the car wash behind as part of the whole package.
Been on the market for 9 months now.
Told my eldest that no, Dad's not going to be "investing" in a Rita's anytime soon.
http://comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/414.pdf
homedad43 short Rita's Ice... Are you on the Islands???
4. If GM goes BK route, fully expect F to do same
I had the impression F was in much better straits than GM or C? Are they really primed for BK?
So why didn't Geithner offer similar deal to the too big to fail banks ?
1) Double standard
2) crony capitalism
3) Wall St owns Wash DC
4) all of the above
If Geithner offered similar deal to the too big to fail banks don't you think they would have an easier time raising capital like they trying to do now ?
Run to the Hills
YouTube - Iron Maiden: Run to the Hills
Or is it simply that the American taxpayers are the bagholders for all those toxic assets now on the Fed balance sheet ( transferred from the the too big to fail banks )
Outsider,
I'm more of an amateur sit-down type.
f GM was smart, it would buy CDS worth 1,000x its own debt, go chapter 11, and have AIG fund its reorg.
the US government decided to cut out the AIG middleman and just fund the BK directly.
re: delphi
it's on the pink sheets. if you get 10 people who simultaneously believe a rumor, the price will go 3X
In case anyone hasn't seen this yet:
Merrill's Rosenberg: Goodbye, Thank You, Yes It's Just A Sucker's Rally
"the risk in the market, in our view, is much higher than it was the last time we were close to current market prices back in early January, for the simple reason that we believe professional investors have covered their shorts, lifted their hedges and lowered their cash positions in favor of being long the market. "
"While it may be the case that the pace of economic decline is no longer as negative as it was at the peak of the post-Lehman credit contraction, the reality is that employment, output, organic personal income and retail sales are still in a fundamental downtrend. "
If it's all a staged rally, what sort of rally cap is appropriate for the occasion?
Command economy moving along on schedule. When do we hear more about sacrifices.
Not banks, but, you know, personal sacrifices.
"From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs"
$6.66 trailing 12 month earnings estimated for 3rd qtr implies S&P 500 = 108.55
http://comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/414.pdf
How stressful were the stress tests? the Fed made it easy as pie
Everything is negotiable: the banks pushed back against the government's initial capital requirements. which would seem to be an invitation for some mark-to-market accounting magic in the coming quarters.
Rise of the Zombies: Night of the living bank dead 2.0
sm landlord:
Thanks for the Rosenberg. He's generally spot on. Wish he and Kasriel would speak up more frequently.
Wells Fargo, the Necks Staged.
Take this invitation
Bishop's Queen to Pawn
All of us were taken
All that was, is gone
Of this information
Shames us, one and all
Where's my compensation
Watching others fall
Welcome to the fall
Everything is useless
Nothing works at all
Nothing ever matters
Welcome to the fall
.
.
.
YouTube -
.
.
.
Tim:
No, I'm stuck living with Fast Eddie Rendell in PA. I just don't see a seasonal disposable income business as a good spot for the money. Eldest was smitten with the concept of "free" Gelatis.
As to F, if C and GM both go bankruptcy, then the pension/health costs that F continues to bear would make competition with the others almost impossible.
Friend of mine works for F nearby and told me in late 2007 that the company had basically put everything in hock in order to get cash to survive.
S&P 500
83.2 year average PE = 16.3 x $6.66 = 108.55
welcome to the fall
http://comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/414.pdf
"There is nothing in the dark that isn't there when the lights are on.
... Rod Serling"
That's not quite my experience, and there's also selective blindness. Or perhaps one could call it elective blindness.
We navigate using a chart that was will always be out of date, going forward, as they say, and we often prefer it that way.
very "jucy" article on CRE & whistle blowing :
Zero Hedge: Zero Hedge Exclusive: One Whistleblower's Fight Against Goliath Over The Definition Of Risk
enjoy.
greed is the only thing that's real
Things are not going so well on the Eastern Front. General Potemkin advises that he's taking heavy imaginary losses on Wall*Street.
"greed is the only thing that's real"
C'mon. That's not real.
@burnside:
"Wish he [Rosenberg] and Kasriel would speak up more frequently."
I'm concerned that Rosenberg will not have a platform to speak from now that's out of Merrill...
I hope he lands in a good place and can publish his thoughts.
not zombies - VAMPIRES I say! Sucking the lifeblood out of the real economy...
otisherzt
Doesn't make a very compelling case for stocks.
+10
I hope he lands in a good place and can publish his thoughts.
Absolutely. Andy Xie appears to have bounced back OK from his liberation. And if Rosenberg cannot publish, he can blog, mimeo, or smoke message signal (SMS).
VampirEmpire
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/flash/business/20090302-econ-indicators-graphic/econIndicators.swf
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/flash/business/HOUSING_PRICES_GRAPHICS/housing337.swf
These are some very revealing econ charts courtesy of the NYTimes. Thanks to "Geckolizard" who posted them on TheOilDrum, one of my fave sites.
just look at the blatant lie of the WSJ!
they say SP500 PE = 15.08 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
what a disservice to their readers
this pathetic denial of reality is deliberate trickery that calls all their data into question.
had to save the page. this is one for the scrapbook.
P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
sm- landlord,
I like this one...
"and we say that with all deference to the stress tests (which given the less-than-dire economic scenarios, along with the changes to mark-to-market accounting, were destined to reveal healthy results)."
when the you see the green "applause" sign start clapping and continue until the light goes off.
Sorry I am off topic, but my favorite Superman episode is on TV rright now - you know, the one where he attempts to save Healthcare, boldly and swiftly IIRC
Beware the i.e.d.'s of May...
The Socialist in Chief is bloviating. He who could not imagine nationalizing the banks has no problem nationalizing health care.
"greed is the only thing that's real "
nope, there is an old saying, show the greedy one 5 cents & you can do with them everything you want... (that's the principle all of the marketing is based on.. buy one get one free or 150+% return & prices always go up, etc)
what really matters is the game theory, (IF YOU UNDERSTAND HOW TO USE IT & know all of the variables, etc)
A pathetic ignorance of reality question. Banks that must raise capital, raise capital from whom?
Senor Pancho's Quixotic Responses
To the spoils go the thieves
"Banks that must raise capital, raise capital from whom? "
Green Shots !!!
(aka greed shots, best medicine for the swine flue.. up to date)
bagholders
Comrade de Chaos (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 9:45 am reply Ignore user
...what really matters is the game theory,
Sorry, Comrade. That thinking is so old economy. Game theory requires two preconditions in order to be useful; consistent rules and consistent application of the rules. Both are missing.
this is ot, but so is hand-clapping (what's that all about?) so I don't feel so bad:
Fosters.com - Dover NH, Rochester NH, Portsmouth NH, Laconia NH, Sanford ME
"Labor Groups Say More Gambling Will Bring In Cash, Jobs"
Foley says it's nonsense to talk about laying off state workers when video lottery revenues are a revenue option.
I give up.
The Obama admin gives trillions to crooked greedy banks and Mayor Bloonberg allocates millions for retraining of ex Wall Street people and NYC now charges rent at homeless shelters
Raw Story » NYC now charges rent at homeless shelters
What a country !
energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 9:50 am
bagholders
How much did Tom Sawyer charge to let his preferred friends whitewash that fence?
Rosenberg is going to a Canadian Asset Manager. It's unknown if he will publish anything for the public, but it's doubtful it would be as frequent as his 3X daily publications from ML/BOFA.
On the Rita's topic, a friend and I almost started a Rita's up a few years ago. On the surface, it seems like a pretty sweet gig if you can get it setup. I got scared away by the upfront costs and the location selection process. My friend eventually went on to the next step, and spent over a year and $50k trying to get a location approved by the town and Rita's, before it finally got nixed at the last step by the state highway authorities.
"Rob Dawg "
I don't think the game theory is ever applied in Macro Econ. Because Macro field just has too many variables. It worked for USA vs. USSR nuclear strategy and has many other uses. (most MBA have to cover it, not that they learn much from it, apparently : ) )
Banks that must raise capital, raise capital from whom?
Last year, it was the SWFs, who won't be as generous this time around. I'd be interested in seeing if the UBS shakedown could get private clients who value secrecy to chip in. cough Barclays cough
Dawg and Chaos;
In Calvinball, the rules play you.
[The Socialist in Chief is bloviating. He who could not imagine nationalizing the banks has no problem nationalizing health care.]
The reasoning seems to be on some quite slippery footing.
Why not nationalize energy ? National security
Nationalize food supply ? Everyone needs to eat
Why not auto insurance ? Save everyone money, just like health insurance
...
Lots for the nationalizer-in-chief to do !
Rajesh wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 8:34 am
Delphi is getting helped out of bankruptcy by GM, who is going to replace it in bankruptcy court.
Actually the Auto task force denied permission for GM to buy the mission critical plants from Delphi. GM is now limiting sales of Delphi parts to dealers and recommending they not hoard (kinda like saying "The theater's on fire! Dont Panic!"). Delphi looks rather like they aren't coming out of bankruptcy so I'm not sure if team Obama is going to have the new GM entity buy the Delphi plants or if they expect GM to re-source the parts before the plants roll again (which would mean the plants aren't going to roll again any time soon). Isn't this a great ride!
The blog is still silent. Threatened by the WH? "OK, you can continue to write your NYT column, but no more blogging!" National security and all that. No wonder Krugman's in China.
Love the Drudge headline this morning:
Government borrowing 50 cents for every dollar it spends...
Spend, spend, spend your way out of the abyss.
nallen The purchaser of the Hummer is probably looking forward to government contracts.
nothing to say (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 10:09 am reply Ignore user
The blog is still silent.
"Someday, and that day may never come, I'll call upon you to do a service for me..."
Nationalize porn, money shots for all!
The Obama admin gives trillions to crooked greedy banks and Mayor Bloonberg allocates millions for retraining of ex Wall Street people and NYC now charges rent at homeless shelters
Truly perverse.
nincompoop (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 10:15 am reply Ignore user
nallen The purchaser of the Hummer is probably looking forward to government contracts.
Hummers are not "Humvees." Those civilian things are Chevy's with bling. They have the ground clearance of a Honda CRV.
"A fresh estimate of the deficit showed it coming in at $1.84 trillion -- representing a massive 12.9 percent of gross domestic product -- in the current 2009 fiscal year that ends on September 30."
I want to hear the happy ending.
"No wonder Krugman's in China. "
bout them China, electricity output was down yet again in April.
rofl,
but hey, red rockets ,must be real !!!
So we can all blame Krugman now when the firebombings start.
I hope he is smart enough to realize that he can't even dent this mess and it is better to just STFU.
Krugman is in China picking out a retirement loft.
Book:
He doesn't think it's a mess, he thinks they aren't shoveling out cash fast enough. Smart enough, indeed.
Terror Plane Mashup Finalists: Bailout
rofl
JACKIE CALMES Published: May 11, 2009
NYT
WASHINGTON — The economic crisis is already taking a toll on the Obama administration’s new budget projections, adding $90 billion to its already historically high estimates of deficits for both this fiscal year and next.
The changes, reported on Monday by the Office of Management and Budget, brings the deficit for this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, to $1.84 trillion from a February projection of $1.75 trillion. For fiscal 2010, the new estimate is $1.26 trillion, up from $1.17 trillion.
Let's just call it a even "two" (for now).
book1 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 10:26 am reply Ignore user
Krugman is in China picking out a retirement loft.
He just wanted to move to a country with more more individual freedoms and a capitalist economy.
It also means the deficit will be 12.9% of gross domestic product in the fiscal year 2009 ending Sept. 30. That's up from $1.75 trillion and the estimate may rise again in the coming months. ........That deterioration underscores the fragility of the current economic situation. Outlays (spending) continues to outpace incoming cash (taxes).
Deficit up to 1.89 trillion. The last sentence is funny.
Crap. Pwned by Samdog.
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 12:57 pm reply Ignore user Banks that must raise capital, raise capital from whom?
Last year, it was the SWFs, who won't be as generous this time around.
I used to knbow a lot of generous SWF's but the more i wen to them the more my wife goyt upset and threatened to cut my net worth in half.....
"When more of the people's sustenance is exacted through the form of taxation than is necessary to meet the just obligations of government, such exaction becomes ruthless extortion and a violation of the fundamental principles of a free government." - Grover Cleveland
AU still hovers around 911. Bonds get these quickie moves, equities get the goose, where's the support for gold?
Discriminatory. Anti-American. Prejudiced. Commodity Bigots.
The first shall be last, and the last shall be first. Except around dinnertime.
hahahahahaha!
ouch
from previous thread
" Krugman gave credit to China for vigorously implementing its own economic stimulus plan but said he had detected no commitment by Beijing to switch to a domestic demand-driven growth model that would reduce its excess savings.
"It's very hard to see how the world has a full recovery if China continues to run current account surpluses of 10 percent of GDP," he said."
"DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is open to considering moving its headquarters from Detroit, selling off U.S. plants and even renegotiating parts of its restructuring plan with its major union, the new chief executive said on Monday."
Due to the shortage of skilled labor and high cost of real estate in and around Detroit, I presume?
"GM purchased its glass-towered headquarter building known as Detroit's Renaissance Centre last year for $625 million (412.8 million pounds)."
Perfect timing.
Taxes, aren't we precious? Taxes are just the token anymore. Real gov't spending is funded by printing.
Eliminates the need to approach the legislative bodies and bypasses the righteous fury of the masses.
Bonds are also nice, and will suffice.
Taxes (baby bear), Bonds (momma bear), Presses (Big Daddy bear)
Us, slow moving Goldilocks.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 1:21 pm reply Ignore user nincompoop (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 10:15 am reply Ignore user
nallen The purchaser of the Hummer is probably looking forward to government contracts.
Hummers are not "Humvees." Those civilian things are Chevy's with bling. They have the ground clearance of a Honda CRV.
But RobDawg, I doubt if some third world dictator knows or cares..... i'd buy and sell to Hugo and castro and all those f'd up african countries.... see greed is alive and well.... as is entrapeneurship.... lol
"Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for." - Will Rogers
Think about that in context of our now getting twice as much government as we are paying for.
The world today seems absolutely crackers,
With financial bombs to blow us all sky high.
There's fools and idiots sitting on the trigger.
It's depressing and it's senseless, and that's why...
I like Chinese.
I like Chinese.
They manufacture most of your needs
Yet they're always friendly, and they're ready to buy Treasuries
book1 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 10:26 am
Krugman is in China picking out a retirement loft.
It would be interesting to see which languages are being studied by the children and grandchildren of our oligarchs, and how the list has changed over the last couple of decades. Wouldn't it be alarming to learn of a big switch toward one language or another?
Simon says due American Idoligarchy
Johnny Lee (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 1:37 pm
AU still hovers around 911. Bonds get these quickie moves, equities get the goose, where's the support for gold?
The federales don't like gold because it's messy. So it just has to sit in the ground. Who's afraid of a little cyanide and mercury?
Tata’s Jaguar problems
"Tata will not brook any interference in its running of Jaguar and is now seeking finance to the tune of £1 billion from the debt market and has authorized its financial adviser, Citigroup, to find bankers willing to lend the money."
Tata’s Jaguar problems | Globalmotors.net
i feel the need for a Mortgage Pig appearance....
I'm increasingly convinced that the loss of all of those Cantor Fitzgerald employees was truly devastating in way which we're only beginning to understand now. Maybe they were the smartest participants in the treasury market, and most of the real 'bond vigilantes' were lost that day. Maybe the door to whole new worlds of moral hazard was opened significantly wider with their loss.
I walked into a Zombie Bank today and they were giving away free-range voodoo economics, if you opened a checking account with them.
Don't these guys have plenty of cash?????
"Microsoft To Sell $3.75B Of Bonds In 3-Parts-Sources "
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com
"...open to considering moving its headquarters from Detroit"
And they'd save money by moving to ___????
MSFT has $25 billion or so in cash. They must have some acquisitions in mind.
Washington. DC. Just think of all the money they'd save on freight for the billions of dollars. Plus Obama could take a train to GM HQ. It'll be easier to run both GM and the USSA.
Or they see serious revenue/profit declines in the near future.
Doesn't that put things in perspective...
The biggest-baddest of the techs has a measly $25 Billion in cash?
A couple of years ago that number would have thrilled me, now it's seems like pin-money
sm_landlord (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 5/11/2009 - 2:05 pm reply Ignore user MSFT has $25 billion or so in cash. They must have some acquisitions in mind.
Or maybe they think the availability to the credit markets is about to slam shut and they need more cash to carry them through our dark ages.
bloomberg also lying big today about SP 500 earnings
"The S&P 500 ended last week trading at 15.1 times its members’ reported earnings, according to Bloomberg data, the highest since October. "
U.S. Stocks Slide From Four-Month High on Earnings Valuations - Bloomberg.com
According to S&P:
S&P 500 PE as of 12-31-08 = 60.7,
Earnings = -23.25
Someone should tell them a positive number divided by a negative number is a NEGATIVE NUMBER!
did earnings all of a sudden RISE and we all missed it?????????
chaw on this bloomturd
http://comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/414.pdf
You don't borrow money when you need it, you borrow when you don't need it so that you can get better rates on your line of credit. They're also getting ready to press Windows 7, I'm sure there will be a huge marketing blitz. Not 3.75 billion worth, but that leaves you some play money to take advantage of competitor weakness to buy talent.
Installed some more Ubuntu this weekend - even easier with the latest 9.04 release... MSFT might be cashing out while they can....
The bunker here will be all Linux shortly...
Arbit, maybe you should go pro!!
Long arbit jokes!
honestly , even a distro upgrade from 8.04 to 8.10 to 9.04 for me ran smoothly.
I'm running 9.04 on a p3 1.1 with 512mb of ram.
Microsoft better get their game together, though 7 looks nice.
I might have to reinvent myself... I write enterprise mangaement software in MFC for windows desktops.
It's becasue China may be buying them very soon
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