to be edited...

This is exactly why the banks have tried to hide what is actually on their balance sheets, and why the administration has been trying to reflate the economy - so the problems dont get any worse and the banks dont have to fess up and destroy consumer confidence... oops too late for that...

But this is what was going on from summer 07 to summer of 08 - before the Lehman failure tanked everything... Everyone was talking about banking transparency but no one was actually doing anything... if the truth had been known the bank shares would have collapsed a lot earlier... instead they turned into a value trap - sucking in investors looking for high dividends... Then the dividends went away... Fair warning - dont own much of any one thing - only diversification can protect you from this sort of thing...

The enormous volume of securities writedowns in 2008 basically overwhelmed the pre-provision earnings power of the banking industry

Hey, the FASB took care of that problem. No mark-to-market, all losses will be on the accrual basis. If you extend accrual period for your Level 3 assets into 10+ years, then maybe you can earn your way out.

Then again - CRE fuse is lit and the consumer credit is shrinking.

The Summers-Geithner strategy is "going all in" on the bet that the economy will turn around soon, to provide earnings to banks.
If the economy remains sluggish then the payoff will be rather painful.

lawyerliz said (earlier thread):

Even when I like reading Rand, I never got thru Galt's speech.

I wonder if anybody ever has?

The Banks will win the race . . . they will just pressure the politicians to pressure the FASB to change the accounting rules to ensure that losses are not recognized before the necessary income comes in. Problem solved.

This #14 spot isn't valuable now but just wait 'til the railroad arrives.

HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 5/9/2009 - 10:30 pm
Nice aside, CR - the only thing for certain in the coming year is that RE above the jumbo line is toast!

The jumbo line is a moving target.

Outsider - I was only kidding, you are not supposed to actually edit the first post - it's a breach of blog etiquette....

HAHAHA

Yes Greenspan tried to be a professional musician but he gave up after he played in a band sitting next to a guy named Stan Getz.... At that point he realized he needed a day job...

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas

Lucifer (profile) wrote:

Ayn Ryand was just another fraud.. one who appealed to easily brainwashed greedy monkeys.

Or easily brainwashed 14 year olds. I outgrew Objectivism sometime in college.

What we have here is a failure to accumulate...

"Everyone was talking about banking transparency but no one was actually doing anything.."

At least since Bear Stearns collapsed, every official or expert who has testified before Congress has agreed that CDS and other OTC derivatives must be regulated. (Some say banned or regulated as insurance contracts). But the only thing that's happened is a new bank sprung up in March, ICE Trust, to act as a clearinghouse, and the market has supposedly been "compressed" to 30 trillion, from 62) ICE already guarantees 350 billion in CDS. The capital requirements for ICE Trust is not public information. (I've called the NY FED) I believe ICE Trust is the toxic waste dump.

In any event, there has been no action because they're waiting for the crisis to pass to reform the system.

The current regulatory scheme IS THE CRISIS.
Tavakoli calls it Hurricane Ponzi. [Anyone pumping $$ is in on it, whether they know it or not]

Arbitrage_Macht_Frei,

I see it as a "Triumph of Reality"

I expected the banks to just buy treasuries with their Fed cash, but it looks like the money is going into commodities instead....

Hurricane Ponzi - makes landfall on the northeast, lays waste to the entire country.... a first in our time...

If the banks were required to hold the loans to maturity ala the old S&L model, they would be more careful with their lending too...

Lucifer (profile) wrote on Sat, 5/9/2009 - 3:53 pm
Do you think any bankster would remain alive if J6P knew how banks and other financial institutions worked?

But of course. The mimosas in the cabana aren't going to serve themselves.

How about some captions for that picture?

"Can I have the car keys dad? I'll be real careful..."

I'd say gullible 14 year-olds is about right. Now Arthur Miller and Orwell, those guys could do political fiction.

At 14, my futurist was Ray Bradbury. I hope he's still read..

Caption:

"You see dad, this little bunny was hopping across the road like this... and that's why I crashed the economy."

Rob Dawg,

Timmy: Are we on the same page, Ben?

Ben: Why is the mob getting closer?

Lucifer I am an atheist...

Caption:

Geithner: "...And then Mighty Mouse flies in and saves the day. That's the plan."

Dawg - did you buy that generator? Must be adding a whole lot of grow lights...

ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Sat, 5/9/2009 - 4:02 pm

Lucifer I am an atheist...

Best accidental self-contradiction ever. LoL!

Arbitrage_Macht_Frei (profile) wrote on Sat, 5/9/2009 - 3:50 pm
What we have here is a failure to accumulate...

Arbitrage, you are a never ending font of wit. How do you do it?

I didnt believe in reincarnation the last time I was here either.

Schaeffer I will admit the possibility that there is something outside of the Universe as we know it. Otherwise I see no credible evidence for the existence of any godlike entity within our universe - everything is cause and effect...

Check out Richard Dawkins - he is the expert...

ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Sat, 5/9/2009 - 4:06 pm reply Ignore user
Dawg - did you buy that generator? Must be adding a whole lot of grow lights...

You should see my Digi-Key commercial account balance after buying 120,000 pcs. 1/2 watt spectrum white LEDs.

WHAT IF... the banks actually lose money going forward because they haven't really learned any lessons from the current collapse? WHAT IF they take unnecessary risks and speculate in trading markets in an attempt to "win back" their losses? Classic gambling strategy, right? WHAT IF....?

What was the cause? I rest my case - it now goes to the jury.

"Ben, when inflation spirals out of control, you must dive out of the helicopter before it crashes in all that liquidity"

Schaffer - the cause? You mean the cause of the universe? Unknown at this point but my bet is that the universe has always existed, and will always exist - that gravity pulls all matter into one singularity that explodes and matter travels outward until gravity once again draws everything back together - the oscillating universe theory... and that this happens around every 50 billion years or so... But I'm open to new info - we dont know everything about the universe yet, but we are working on it....

I reckon that Jas is doing 5 to 10% in the slammer, in Tehachipi

Whatever happened to that National Debt clock? Did it blow a fuse this year or what?

ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Sat, 5/9/2009 - 7:09 pm

Schaeffer I will admit the possibility that there is something outside of the Universe as we know it. Otherwise I see no credible evidence for the existence of any godlike entity within our universe - everything is cause and effect...

Gods exist within men and act through them. Without sacrifice and belief, the gods don't exist. With them, they are as real as their worshippers' gun-arms and minds. Go, urinate on the corner of the ka'ba; you will not need to wait long to encounter the fire whose fuel is men and stones. Is that not the wrath of the Muslim god? Consider this carefully, it is the observable truth.

Check out Richard Dawkins - he is the expert...

In my experience, most proselytizing atheists are pap-pushers with arguments that are so oriented around monotheistic scriptural literalism that I consider them as much a Near Eastern Monotheism heresy as satanism.

This guy proved humans can beat gravity:

YouTube - NBA Julius Dr. J Erving Fantastic Moves

In terms of CR's post wrt the footrace, I just don't see how banks will out-earn the losses from a credit bubble with retained earnings from prudent lending, not given the global scope of the flight-to-yield bubble.

Bank earnings for the last decade have been depressed by competition from the shadow banking system. Now that the shadow banking system is gone, bank earnings should be much stronger.

Don't forget that bank mortgage departments, which focused on boring mortgages to credit-worthy borrowers, were the wallflowers of the housing party. Now that the jiggy girls (Indy Mac, New Century, NovaStar) are in body bags; bank mortgage departments are the belle of the refinancing ball.

you left out Timmay, Bennay and Hankay - all three have been blasphemed extensively here and elsewhere -

From the Krugman article...

It’s not at all clear that credit from the Fed, Fannie and Freddie can fully substitute for a healthy banking system. If it can’t, the muddle-through strategy will turn out to be a recipe for a prolonged, Japanese-style era of high unemployment and weak growth.

Actually, a multiyear period of economic weakness looks likely in any case. The economy may no longer be plunging, but it’s very hard to see where a real recovery will come from. And if the economy does stay depressed for a long time, banks will be in much bigger trouble than the stress tests — which looked only two years ahead — are able to capture.

I'd say it's absolutely clear that the government can not substitute for a healthy economy, and we wont have a healthy economy until the government stops interfering with the marketplace.

"Now that the shadow banking system is gone, bank earnings should be much stronger."

Just went poof, eh? All those gains stolen over the years from the hard-working "wallflowers" and no losses tucked away in toxic assets.

Wake up, pal.

It's quite possible also that BB will actually be able to pull off his trick - if demand does not pick up there wont be inflation, and then he can take his time pulling all the new cash back out of the system... We wont have a recovery though, just a new reality - a new level of employment and consumption that is far below the previous peak.... and if there is inflation and BB has to raise rates and pull the cash out faster, we get to the same new reality of lower employment and consumption...

The beatings will continue until the morale improves...

Double-tap, Yogi.

that gravity pulls all matter into one singularity

Technically, gravity doesn't pull anything. An object's mass warps space-time around it so things that move near it appear to fall toward it, but they are just following the curvature of space-time. The larger the mass, the larger the distortion. Think of a bowling ball resting on a thin sheet of stretched out plastic to imagine what a planet or star does to space-time.

Rajesh, maybe you missed this. The CNBC shills sure did:

July 30 (Reuters) - The Financial Accounting Standards Board, which sets U.S. accounting rules, voted on Wednesday to delay accounting changes that would affect trillions of dollars in off-balance sheet assets at banks and financial companies.

Reversing an earlier decision to make some parts of the rule change effective at the end of this year, FASB members voted that the rule should take effect all at once, for reporting periods after Nov. 15, 2009.

Here

Byz,

I can walk into any bar in flyover bible belt America and say bad things about "Hermes" till i'm blue in the face and nobody's gonna care, but were I to say bad things about Jesus, it'd be a whole different story.

Sorry, that July article is probably outdated.

Must be a quadrillion by now.

This whole banking thing must be REALLY serious...

So did anyone here notice Posner's change of heart about regulating financial markets?

'If the lions are eating too many zebras you don't tell them to stop eating so many zebras, you build a fence'.

Blackstone in America

Fascinating. I had thought Posner was the ultimate example of fanatics who claim you can trust markets to self regulate. He has some gonads to change his story publicly like this.

@arbitrage,

Maybe I should have made my nick "Chesses Christ".

reptillian wrote
"The moon is falling toward the earth at all times."

I hope it doesn't hit anything !

• splat

Ah the 80's - the hair, the costumes... I wonder if anyone in that band looks at those videos now and says "What were we thinking?"

The economy may no longer be plunging

This is a meme successfully supported by the Summers-Geithner team: "The economy isn't plunging any more, therefore we are just about to turn around the corner."

The equity market may have recovered, not the economy, which is still contracting rather substantially - look at Chicago Fed's Nat'l Activity Index, ISM Manufacturing and Service Indices, jobs and unemployment data, housing data. We have yet to see the impact of GM and Chrysler bankruptcies. More layoffs are in store for big companies for Q2. The exports are not likely to recover any time soon.

Instead of cliff-diving in Nov-Jan, the economy is "just" declining.

I did state "flyover", which predisposes any thought of any other deity, don't it?

The FASB can't be charged with any crime relating to neglecting their duty in the face of Congressional pressure, I suppose.

The systemic risk ain't going away soon. The potato is heating up, and green shoots are sprouting...

The crisis will not end until there is accountability and transparency, but Washington fiddles.

SI you misspelled God (upper case 'G')

Newsflash - this race does not matter anymore because American is fucked

China cancels America's credit card "China cancels America's credit card" Daily Kos: State of the Nation

The Fed already holds $10 Trillion of ‘assets’ ( mostly toxic ) transferred from too big to fail banks but this is just not enough.

must lower the bar further bit.ly, a simple url shortener... to make sure ALL of the 19 banks pass with flying colors so The Federal Reserve could become the supercop for "too big to fail" which is a proposal being seriously considered by the White House.

The financial con job on American taxpayers by Bush admin ( Greenspan, Paulson, Wall St, etc ) is even more egregious now with the Obama admin ( Bernanke, Giethner, Wall St, etc ) because great big chunks of Big Shitpile that were "impaired," "illiquid," or "distressed," were worthless – unless the peak real estate values of the bubble could miraculously be restored.

Stock market going up to get investor confidence to bring in more sheeple - wash - rinse - repeat cycle.

All of this renewed Goldilocks while

1. The projected budget deficit for 2009 is $2 trillion
2. The debt-drowned United States debt is already 350 percent of G.D.P and rising fast !
3. The Fed is now holding $10 Trillion of ‘assets’ ( mostly toxic ) transferred from too big to fail banks.
4. Other countries are now buying less of our debt
5. The USA has $53 Trillion in unfunded liabilities

Wow just wow - just when you think you’ve seen the biggest con jobs ever ( Like fradulent Iraq war and profiteering by oil companies and defense contractors ) we get this.

As The Triumph of the Banking Oligarchs continues at huge taxpayer expense perhaps most Americans should look forward to being a much BIGGER version of Argentina or Mexico in the near future !

Simon Johnson’s The Quiet Coup bit.ly, a simple url shortener... was a great read but this is NOT going to happen
If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform.

There has never been a bunch of greater and outright corrupt liars and thieves as there has been in the U.S. government in the last 10 years.

RIP America as we once knew it....

"And their off! Losses take a 20 meter lead!" ( In a 100 meter race)

Good radio show on Foreclosures in Vegas

American RadioWorks - Documentary List

In other news :

Pakistan is still finding it difficult to accept that the forces it once created and nurtured, with a view toward influencing Afghanistan and crushing India in Kashmir, have now turned against their masters. Powerful elements within the Pakistan army still see the Taliban as an asset, which seems to account for their reluctance to move decisively in the Swat Valley or redeploy forces from the eastern border with India.

Yet in the last week alone, the Taliban has blown up a Pakistani school, kidnapped a dozen soldiers and beheaded at least two of them, and stormed and occupied government buildings, causing thousands of residents to flee. By one estimate, half a million people will be displaced over the next week.

The Pakistani president's visit to Washington this past week comes at a time when the collapse of much of his country appears almost unstoppable. In Sindh province, ethnic clashes last week claimed more than two dozen lives and brought the bustling port city of Karachi, Pakistan's financial capital, to a halt. In Balochistan, large-scale public projects, notably the deep-sea port at Gwadar funded by China, have served to inflame rather than heal separatist sentiments. And in Swat, the Zardari government's deal with the Taliban -- effectively capitulating to its principal nemesis in a region 60 miles from Islamabad -- has unleashed forces that look set to consume Pakistan.

Question for CR. How can one expect savings to increase and PCE to bottom unless incomes also rise (they are not)?

Whenever I hear about big bankers Mikhail Khodorkovsky pops up in my mind.
Would you be more comfortable with a head of secret service or an Ivy League educated community organizer at the helm?
The more I think of it the less I like the question.

How can one expect savings to increase and PCE to bottom

Who expects PCE to bottom?
PCE had a big boost in Jan vs Dec, but it was flat in Feb and then declined (Month over Month) in March

anon- I would prefer someone more like Truman - someone who has run a business, who knows how to balance a checkbook, and who knows how to say no to children... someone who has a clear idea of what America can afford and what is too much...

The Chinese have too many assets to lose by a collapse of the dollar. So they're going to try to deleverage themselves very slowly in order to avoid a panic on the dollar.

Whenever I hear about big bankers Mikhail Khodorkovsky pops up in my mind.

Khodorkovsky got thrown into jail not because of economic crimes (although this is what he was charged with), but because he dared to face off Putin politically and started buying regional support. Fortunately for US banksters, buying political influence is perfectly legal in this country, and the banksters have perfected lobbying into art. Just think of how the banking industry that created the housing bubble and all the corresponding problems, managed to defeat the mortgage bill that Obama was in favor of.

Nova Railfax and the diesel usage drop is very surprising since all those shovels should be full of rock and asphalt... Whenever the stock market gets the news we will see the double dip or next leg down I'm thinking...

China's not the only contestant on The New Price Is Right with a fistful of dollars they'd like to off...

Obama's 'shuck and jive' decision to put $12 Trillion of taxpayer money to bail out too big too fail banks will be his undoing.

Stay tuned !

Look at Railfax and the port numbers.

Nova - can you please post the link?
Thank you

This is shaping up to be a Thera event financially. Sit back and watch the pretty explosion...

Arbitrage_Macht_Frei (profile) wrote on Sat, 5/9/2009 - 8:27 pm

I've driven through parts of the bible belt where selling religious stuff seems to be 20% of the income of entire towns, i've seen bibles for sale @ gas stations, etc.

Note that I might not like the faith, but I think the degree of religiosity is admirable. If more people practiced their ethoi with that vigor, people who feel themselves in a spiritual void wouldn't be so drawn to millenarian cults like Dominionist Evangelicalism.

IMO, it's the people who are "too smart" to believe in anything that are the problem. Believing in things is a necessary part of human existence. People who live without religion are, in my experience, like people who live without sexual expression. Yeah, you can, but you are spending your life in denial of your natural urges as a result. I don't think it's healthy, and I think it leads to the psycho-social equivalent of Ted Haggard or Catholic child molester priests.

And it's all in flyover, and nowhere else.

I think that you need to unpack this "flyover" concept because it has a lot of baggage for you. As someone who is very much an alien in his own culture, I have to say, while I perceive the threat to my existence from the Palinite / Bushite Dominionists as greater, I would rather spend 20 years with an irreligious hillbilly from Fried Meat Ridge, WV, than 20 minutes with a modern liberal smarmster.

"Have to agree with the Yogster here,"

Byz, you ain't as 'right' as you think, civilly or otherwise.

No doubt Kemal would support the 1 currency.

I recommend,for those who didn't make 350% shorting financials last year, "The 2 Trillion Dollar Meltdown" (Originally released in 2008 as "The Trillion Dollar Meltdown", no joke) by a wise old banker.

"Empire of Debt" is on the money, but not for those at risk for suicide.

Anyone who thinks consumer spending has bottomed needs to read and understand the California State Controller's Office reoprt for April:
http://sco.ca.gov/Press-Releases/2009/05-09summary.pdf 

⇒ Sales tax collections year to date are short $327 million (-1.8%) from the 2009-10 Budget Act. Income taxes were $653 million lower (-1.7%) than expected, and corporate taxes were $788 million lower than expected (-9.5%). The State’s other revenue streams were $299 million below (-6.7%) the estimates. Because the 2009-10 Budget Act contained actual revenue through February 2009, these disparities only occurred in the months of March and April.

Thanks to B. Ruins (say, whose tagline last year was "think of the ruins!"):

Railfax Report - North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report 

Rail stats. The graphs are a little crude -- am thinking of redoing the site with raw numbers.

So we have a person who can invade any country in the world, terminate lives, seize goods...

Correction - not lives of big banks, not goods of big banks.

The big difference is that the US does have civilian control over the military, which military fully agrees with - many generals did not like the idea of the second Iraq war, but they did what they were ordered, and they did it to the best of their abilities.

However, the financial industry is not controlled or regulated by non-financial "civilians". Since Greenspan, the Fed has viewed its mission as to support the financial industry, and so is Treasury, most of the time. Hence all this tiptoeing around "not disrupting the markets, supporting the markets, listening to the markets".

This country has been concerned about too independent military and its influence over the government, so the country put checks and balances in place to prevent it. Politicians do not want to end up arrested by the military.

However, supporting fully independent and unencumbered financial industry has been an item of faith for both Repubs and Dems - and understandably so, since this support pays off handsomely.

"IMO, it's the people who are "too smart" to believe in anything that are the problem. Believing in things is a necessary part of human existence. People who live without religion are, in my experience, like people who live without sexual expression. Yeah, you can, but you are spending your life in denial of your natural urges as a result. I don't think it's healthy, and I think it leads to the psycho-social equivalent of Ted Haggard or Catholic child molester priests. "

Hardly. As long as you understand yourself, as long as you understand that a will to religion is hard-wired in for the standard human model, including yourself, then you can stop beating yourself about the head every time a priest's appeal sways you. If you don't deny it, it can't control you. Kind of like Rick Warren and his porn addiction; he could never accept it was natural for men to like looking at naked women, so he made it a problem. And the problem controls him.

Arb: I've never seen concentrated religion like what exists in the hinterlands of middle America, and it isn't exactly hidden from view. One is practically smothered in it.

We just escaped. I lived there for 30 years, now in Northern California, with the beautiful sights and smells. CSC would be proud.

I'll tell ya one thing. I haven't seen any bumper stickers here with bloody abortion photos. That's something only the midwest seems to pull out of its hind quarters.

Off to eat some spiffy vegan pizzas and smile at 70 degrees F, 40% humidity and a clear sky.

"Right. So we have a person who can invade any country in the world, terminate lives, seize goods... yet perceived as being bullied around by a bankster or two. I just can't accept that the perception is accurate."

Eisenhower said, "Beware..."
JFK said, "I'll smash [The CIA] into a million pieces"
Johnson
Nixon
Ford
made deals with the devil.

Carter a decent man, but was laughed at.
Reagan: Oy
Clinton: Gave up any ideals he had in Arkansas, when he lost re-election.
CIA Director Bush: skull and bones
W Bush: This sucker is going down.

Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.

W dodged shoes, But I'm guessing the majority of Presidents since Garfield dodged or ate bullets.

Very funny outsider.

Pavel, if you're around, I showed your latest poem to the hub and he liked it too.

Californians can now boast. It has gotten HOT here. Oh, well, it's been nice til now.

the question remains: Does the bivariate Gaussian copula go to 11?

from the shipping news posted above (thanks for the link)

8th May 2009
TEMPORARY OR PERMANENT FLOATING STORAGE? (PDF warning)

http://download.hellenicshippingnews.com/pdf/gibson/TMR%2020090508.pdf

Man we need that italics pushbutton, Ken.

I'm in for a bullet-dodger Jackson if you get it online.

A nice analytical post, CR.

Roubini is using an estimate for AFTER TAX EARNINGS. He should be using an estimate for pre tax, pre provision earnings.

" The IMF recently estimated that retained earnings (after taxes and dividends) for all US banks – not just these 19 ones – would be only $300 bn total over the 2009-2010 period. "

The IMF number is reasonable, but it assumes that there will be a lot of loan losses. The pre tax, pre provision earnings will be more than the government estimates. After all, if you are trying to determine how much you can write down, it will be a loss and there will be no taxes.

The "stress test" aggregate figures are $400 billion booked prior to 12/31 and $600 billion booked in 2009 and 2010. Thats a trillion dollars for 19 financial institutions. It may not be enough, but a trillion isn't a low hurdle.

Another Sign of Foreclosure Trouble in California

"Here’s another sign that California’s foreclosures could jump in 2009: Delinquencies on dues owed to homeowner associations have risen sharply."

Another Sign of Foreclosure Trouble in California - Developments - WSJ

I'd adore a discussion on Original Sin.

I could argue either pro or con.

Original Sin could equal imperfect evolution.

Vonbek777 - 9:18 pm "So I am neither atheist or true believer. Just a traveler on the road of life."

So what is life? (or should that be Why?)

In Italy as far as churches go, it seems like every city tried to outdo one another in ostentatiousness, and i'd daresay they succeeded.

My Commandments go to 11

Dark Reflection on the Economy (Worst case Scenario)

As the future of the US darkens the deflationary spiral will continue. Reference small towns. People leave have fewer children and jobs leave town or disappear all together.
Immigration could make a difference if the economy has the jobs to support them. Already we have seen the influx of lower skilled workers slow.

Banking & Financial Services News from PR Newswire

Original Sin - look no further than the bivariate Gaussian copula

Oh, definitely a sin--a big mortie sin--in the church of the Gov't.

Arbitrage_Macht_Frei (profile) wrote on Sat, 5/9/2009 - 8:21 pm
Churches tend to be incredibly liberal on the outside from an architectural standpoint, but incredibly conservative of thought within.

Banks and cathedrals share much in common... or at least, perhaps, they used to. Not that long ago, banks were conservative lenders and risk assessment was taken seriously. They were the gatekeepers to a financial empyrean of sorts. The analogies - good and bad - don't stop there, of course. One only need be conservative if they feel there is something worth protecting or saving. Otherwise, a den of theives is far more efficient in separating man from his capital. Moneychangers in the temple? Puts me in mind of Jesus' assertion that no mediator was necessary between man and god - he had made the intercession and rent the veil of the temple in two, removing the need for a middleman.

bivariate Gaussian copula ??????

Bi--two.

Variate--varying??

Gauss--the magnetism guy.

Copula?? Copulate? Cupola?

???

Oh well, I guess some have faith in green shoots, so we Jeremiahs have to question our own.

Nature vs. nurture arguments eventually run circular. My individual DNA wants to replicate, but so does my human DNA. Hunger strikes and self-immolation at peace (not as a lemming) can be explained as necessary for the survival of the species .It takes a village.. But as to what makes DNA want to replicate?

"There is no "Why""
--Michel Petit, Tight-rope "dancer" who walked on the air between the Twin Towers, 8 times.\
(See "Man On Wire")

Would you save the Dollar if 2 Trillion were going to die? no
Would you save the Dollar if 1 was going to die?no

Would you save the dollar if a quadrillion were going to die?

I dont know, is a quadrillion more than a Brazillian?

I understand that the Jewish religion required the offering of doves and other stuff.

People came from far away to do this. Money wasn't uniform. It was convenient to have the seller of doves and other religious paraphenalia nearby to purchase same. I never quite saw what was so awful.

The only time when religious emotion and chuches intersected was when I walked into the Pantheon and deep organ music was playing. That building is one hell of a architectural scupture. I am still mad at the Renaissance popes for stripping the roof of its metal cladding to build that ugly ugly baldeschino (sp?) in Saint Peter's, which in contrast irritated the hell out of me.

It really doesn't matter how badly the big zombie banks do from now on.

They, along with GM and Chrysler, are the new GSEs. If they need $10 billion per month to keep the doors open, they will get it from Uncle Sam.

So get used to regular feedings - there is nothing that anybody can do about it.

Until money doesn't mean anything.

Rand did occasionally have something to say.

Money speech.

Vernon Dozier (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 5/9/2009 - 6:43 pm
They, along with GM and Chrysler, are the new GSEs. If they need $10 billion per month to keep the doors open, they will get it from Uncle Sam.
So get used to regular feedings - there is nothing that anybody can do about it.

The government will continue the regular feedings, until it can't.

Schaeffer there are also stories of car hauler ships being docked full of cars...

if demand does not pick up there wont be inflation, and then he can take his time pulling all the new cash back out of the system

If demand does not pick up, then Ben's cash is the only thing keeping the system going and he can't stop putting more in.

I think I did reference Alan Watts. I think his books were destroyed in hurricane Andrew. I should replace them.

Schaeffer,
LIfe is, there is no why. If the watchmaker made the universe and we sprouted out of his head, then fine, but it doesn't change the fact that unless our DNA starts talking, we don't know why. Now if our DNA does start telling stories of genetic manipulation, then some little gods were at work, but they aren't exactly giving orders in the light of day here and now. All I am concerned with is this I have been given. I believe in morality, the good, the beautiful, etc... I don't need the threat of everlasting damnation to motivate my behavior. I don't need the get-out-of-jail card of modern Christianity. If I am doomed to the first level of hell with all the philosophers so be it. At least I will have good company. Now if you want to talk theories... I have one. I believe there is a little god out there somewhere who is lonely. Wants company, but wants people who don't demand miracles and solutions 24/7. We see this god sometimes in ancient stories.. and I believe we will see him again, but who knows.

Life is, there is no why.

Maybe. And maybe we and any other sentients out there are creating a why.

A why would be nice.

don't mess with Hermes

the god of thieves

Instead of hovering over some foggy swamp and scaring the bejesus out of a couple of bass fishermen, why doesn't a ufo land on the white house lawn, and a very human-looking fellow gets out to announce he's doing a 40,000 year service on this planet.

following the curvature of space-time""""

ptolemy, is that you?

Well, the map is not the territory.

And we response to instincts and are controlled by them far more than we would
like to admit. No reason to feel ashamed. No reason not to hold on.

Also, the heavens & earth are not without limit. Spacially curved? 'Course there could be another universe outside ours. And another outside that ad infinitem.

lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Sat, 5/9/2009 - 6:59 pm
Life is, there is no why.
Maybe. And maybe we and any other sentients out there are creating a why.
A why would be nice.

We all make our own why.

Well, what happens when all the haulers and tankers fill up?

And ot beyond ot, the hub knew an air force guy who is sure he saw a ufo, but would
never admit it 'cause it would damage his carreer. If there are any, I suppose it's comforting they haven't destroyed us yet.

Old rule: Less than zero is negative

new Rule: Short it zero is infinity.

I am awarez of all internets tradishuns

--too weird? better put me on ignore till next friday....

...Can you define "Virtual Reality?"...not really.

Not necessarily, Luci.

There was an amusing scifi story years ago, where the aliens had started sooner than us, so got here first, even tho they were much stupider. Humans individually beat them up, because the average Joe alien, was, dare I say it? a dope. The leaders were smart, but the rank and file dragged them down.

lawyerliz,

You are assuming that aliens are like us.. I am thinking of the borg.

Perhaps.

Or perhaps collective minds are not too efficient.

Oh, there is an interesting article in Science News about bees and ants and decision making when they need to find a new nest. Seems they send out scouts in all directions,
and the scouts come back and report on where good sites are. And this works well,
AS LONG AS THE SCOUTS ARE INDEPENDENT, and reporting what they themselves find out and drag their sisters out to actually see. A consensus is reached on where to swarm to when enough sister ants/bees make a convincing argument and then they all go.

Has anyone here actually met or observed aliens, or seen or handled alien artifacts?

A consensus is reached on where to swarm to when enough sister ants/bees make a convincing argument and then they all go.

I find this comment fascinating as an estranged Aunt has recently contacted me and desires my input about her money into the casino.

plus one S.

pavel, i kinda see the church as a third parent. i can say what i want about them, good or bad, and it's okay. you(anyone else) better be polite while criticizing any of them if you want me to stay polite.

hypocritical, i know, but i know ex-mormons who feel exactly the same. i am free of the church, but i still love it. i am an atheist but i find the rituals, sounds, smells, tastes, colors of mass almost overwhelmingly beautiful.

I just know the hub, who met this credible, non crazy guy apparently who was in the air force and saw something inexplicable.

I would find it hard to believe there are no other sentients in all the galaxies. But if the speed of light can't be beat, we may never meet any of them.

Unless you can jump through space..

//But if the speed of light can't be beat, we may never meet any of them.//

Let us hope that warp speed is possible.

Nobody but me saw the new Star Trek movie?

Scientist believed that controlled nuclear fission was impossible in 1937.

//Let us hope that warp speed is possible.//

Heck, people used to think you couldn't exceed the speed of sound.

lawyerliz,
I commented on the new trek Friday evening in a previous thread. Didn't like it. Good summer movie, but not my trek. It will be a blockbuster though.

"Also, you are ignoring the indelible mark on the soul thing. You know, that Baptism allegedly causes?"

I don't think I'm ignoring it.

We all live in our constructed worlds, and it can be very difficult to see things that don't seem to belong in them. Truly astonishing things are revealed, though, when one sees them. Sometimes we're taken by surprise.

Only one thing matters in the end - how much you've loved - and I'm not talking about erotic satisfaction, but about self-giving.

I WILL BE YOUR FRIEND…

I will be your eyes
On this green day, I will
See the growing trees,
You will see them still

When the grand Communion
The flesh of Christ is blessed
For me to take, my son,
I will partake for us

Said he: And I will be
Your eyes in this bright place,
What was once obscurity
Is sunlight on my face

Where death has been a darkness
Light that has no end -
Father blind in your distress
I will be your friend

Pavel
May 4, 2009

Mock Turtle;

Interesting comments on the link you posted. Almost no one is buying the stress test results, based on the overwhelming reaction. Only one commenter was willing to support the tests, calling the bad reaction "a neocon fastasy". What neocons have to do with the believability of the stress tests is beyond me.

"i am free of the church, but i still love it."

Love is never in vain.

lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Sat, 5/9/2009 - 9:14 pm
The leaders were smart, but the rank and file dragged them down.

We seem to have the opposite problem... the rank and file is competent at their work, while the leaders drag it down. Evil flourishes only in a hierarchy. Liars and cheats exist at every social strata but at lower levels are usually discovered and removed, ousted or simply outperformed by competent rivals. No such incentive exists at higher levels.

"I understand that the Jewish religion required the offering of doves and other stuff.
People came from far away to do this. Money wasn't uniform."

Didn't see this before I posted, but coincidentally Rabbi Akiva uniformly interpreted the law of offerings (to the Priests) in favor of a cheaper, perhaps symbolic alternative. (He was a layman by birth) Progressive taxation. The Sanhedrin had no trouble raising revenue, the people went to them for dispute resolution and they handed out decisions in the open.

"It has been the deliberately and openly pursued policy of the Israeli state to seize Palestinian lands to serve the cause of radical Zionism -- the idea that the Israeli state's boundaries are set by God as interpreted by land-hungry followers."

You don't seriously believe any powerful Israeli political leader believes that horseshit? A right-leaning friend of mine (an Israeli intelligence officer) once told me 90% of Israelis (Labor and Likud) would have no problem if the Haredim and the PLO (Arafat was still alive) fought each other to mutual extinction. The wingnuts are the only idiots willing to settle there, so the state doesn't discourage the notion. Unfortunately the wingnuts vote as a block and use their leverage to maximum effect in the parliamentary system. I think you forget the State of Israel was founded to a large extent by real communists, who never stepped foot in a synagogue.

The notion that Europeans displaced all the locals is part propaganda too. A good friend of the family, who fought in '48 for the Hagganah, was just involved in a ceremony for the the founding families of modern Tel Aviv 100 years ago. He traces family living in Palestine for ten generations. The Jews of Muslim countries at times fared better than under Christian rule, (the king of Morrocco protected Jews from deportation, straining relations with Hitler) and untli the Russians came there were more Sephardim in Israel than Ashkenazim. Living under Muslim rule, however, meant they had limited experience with electoral politics, and the Jews that escaped Europe were disproportionately well-connected to money and power, so easily dominated the government.(Many of the Jews from North Africa, Arabia and the Persian Gulf migrated after '48). Some fled their homelands in fear when war broke out just like the Palestinians.

Of course it's a land grab, Jews have learned the hard way it helps to have land to survive. The rockets are real, and you yourself prefer religious types to the faithless. So what choice do Jews have? We have been faced with "convert or die" many times in history whenever the crusading wave comes. I don't wear any religious markers, and interpret the "chosen people" as anyone who chooses the burden of an ethical life, but I will resist a mandatory pledge of allegiance to one nation "under God". Nazis and Soviets don't like Jewish big mouths and would easily direct populist anger against the "bankers and fraudsters of NYC" in Jas Jain speak, and/or the liberal media types like Jon Stewart. (Ever see "Talk Radio"?)

You underestimate the value of the Law of Return to someone like me, a secular Jew who has faith in the Constitution but prefers that his cousin carries a big stick just in case. Christmas is still a national holiday. When I came back from the Jewish Quarter in Prague, a tourist attraction with a handful of leftover Jews I told people that I felt like a Native American. The message Elie Weisel carries is that the Holocaust could happen again, anywhere. And the Russians who came to Israel did face persecution from the Soviets, who wanted no dissenters, a common Jewish preoccupation. To the extent Hitler's scapegoating was rational, the Jewish minority has always represented stiff-necked dissent from the Official Story. The "final solution" was to a 2000-year- old thorn in the side of Christian Europe. Would I trust the Germans to guard me from the Neonazis? They didn't do such a good job at Munich. I can't play a squash tournament in Pakistan like my fellow Americans. I wouldn't feel particularly secure in many parts of the US, spouting off about ending dollar hegemony. I have met people from red states who, when they find out I'm Jewish, start talking about the latest Israeli military hardware, which I am not caught up on. When the N word comes out I make a mild logical rebuke or keep silent, depending on logistics.

"I'd do exactly the same thing if people came to America."

So you'd support Cherokee suicide killers of random civilians?
We live in the comfort of ancient colonial genocide, my friend,

"I think the way we can help make amends for that is by not letting it happen to other peoples."

Sounds like Bernanke on too big to fail. I take it you want the US out of Iraq and Afghanistan today? Me too, and I hope for a 2 state solution with Israel and Palestine, until both sides get some real religion...

You don't seriously believe any powerful Israeli political leader believes that horseshit?

Are you kidding? I have read Ha'aretz regularly for the last umm, 13 years? I know very many of them believe it! Oh my god the hoops Sharon jumped through to keep the killing going on for their sake. I watched him tie Israeli to gradualist territorial conquest like a drowning man to an anvil. The things he did to keep the settlement blocks expanding! Between that and getting Israel into the Lebanon war, there's no surprise God cursed him with death-in-life!

And right of that -- Yisrael Beiteinu, UTJ, National Union, Jewish Home -- of them there is no question.

A right-leaning friend of mine (an Israeli intelligence officer) once told me 90% of Israelis (Labor and Likud) would have no problem if the Haredim and the PLO (Arafat was still alive) fought each other to mutual extinction.

Unfortunately the wingnuts vote as a block and use their leverage to maximum effect in the parliamentary system.

Why do they need to settle there in he first place, Yogi? Was it the kind of conversation where he soothed your concerns and kept you one of Israel's friends abroad? I don't want to say, "I hope they were smiling when they said that" but it is a way of expressing what went on that neglects to mention the part where the Israeli establishment kept the domestic tension between the secular state and the ultra-orthodox papered over by feeding them Palestinian dunams for 40 years

I think you forget the State of Israel was founded to a large extent by real communists, who never stepped foot in a synagogue.

That unfortunately does not alter the fact that Israel chose to engage in the systematic settlement of Palestinian lands as a state policy after 1968. Communism clearly does not confer a flawless moral compass.

You underestimate the value of the Law of Return to someone like me, a secular Jew who has faith in the Constitution but prefers that his cousin carries a big stick just in case.

No, I'm well aware of the value of co-opting someone into supporting the policy of a state that happens to profess the same faith. It's pretty much SOP in the Middle East. I'm sorry to hear you articulate that.

So you'd support Cherokee suicide killers of random civilians?

Would you not? Look what happened to them! Go Crazy Horse go! Retrospectively, any Indian who argued for anything other than driving the whites into the ocean was pretty obviously a short-sighted dipshit! The whites were, in fact, two-faced genocidal savages intent on stealing land under any pretext. They should never have allowed a minute of peace or negotiation. QED, they broke every treaty and killed everyone who stood against them. We can fight for freedom forever and we'll still never erase that stain, primarily because, as we see, people use it to justify their own adventures.

If I had been alive at the time, I'd probably have fought on the other side. I can't see how you can say you're a moral person and not think that. I sure don't give a shit how many tax free cigarettes or gambling halls the tiny handful of survivors operate, that's for sure.

Sounds like Bernanke on too big to fail.

Quit making superficial plays.

I take it you want the US out of Iraq and Afghanistan today?

Pretty much. It's not that I'm a peacenik; although Iraq was idiotic, Afghanistan was merely Sisyphean task and I think had we just paid attention to that, we might have actually done something. But, currently, I think our alternatives are, we can go on our own or we can go when the money runs out, which will be any day now, so I would like to make sure we make our withdrawal in an orderly fashion and maybe the money will last long enough that everyone gets away and it doesn't turn into a rout.

Sounds like Bernanke on too big to fail.

"Quit making superficial plays."

Put your money where your mouth is. I support valid Indian land claims through civilian legal process. Evidently, the surviving Indians have a stronger "moral compass" than the hashishin.

"No, I'm well aware of the value of co-opting someone into supporting the policy of a state that happens to profess the same faith."

No, Hitler didn't give a shit about faith, or whether you'd been dunked in a river. He relied on blood. German Jews were the most reformed and assimilated. Karl Marx's father baptized his kids to fit in. Didn't quite take.

I have not been "co-opted" by a Zionist conspiracy. Maybe the US should open all its borders in the name of brotherhood. I repeat: there are many places in the world Jews can not travel, even Western- looking ones with Anglicized names on their a deflating American passport. If Israel didn't exist, there might be even fewer. I would love to be a citizen of the world, believing whatever religion I choose, or none, "flying my freak flag high" as Jimi put it. In the next life...

--A right-leaning friend of mine (an Israeli intelligence officer) once told me 90% of Israelis (Labor and Likud) would have no problem if the Haredim and the PLO (Arafat was still alive) fought each other to mutual extinction.

"Why do they need to settle there in he first place, Yogi? Was it the kind of conversation where he soothed your concerns and kept you one of Israel's friends abroad?"

The context was the Religious Military exemption in the IDF, which ensures universal resentment of the black coats, bordering on Anti-you-know-what. Regardless of his position on the occupied territories, he didn't appreciate their idea of divine right secured with only his blood. Everyone already resents their leveraging of power by selling their block vote to whichever major party gives them the most control in the gray areas of individual rights: Marriage,Sodomy (the ruins are right there), who is a legal Jew.

Most Israelis get married abroad, mainly Cyprus :

--"When Israel became a state in 1948, Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion, to win Orthodox support for the new state, agreed to continue the millet system, ceding control of marriage to the Orthodox rabbinate—the supreme Jewish religious governing body in Israel. When the nation formalized its personal status laws in 1953, Israel’s Orthodox rabbinate retained its exclusive jurisdiction over marriages among Israel’s Jews, precluding the development of civil marriage laws and preventing other Jewish denominations from officiating marriages."--

In Tel Aviv, they resent any traffic restrictions on Saturdays. The secular majority would never let them interfere with a viable land for peace deal. Even Sharon removed Jews from Yamit in the Sinai by force. Occasionally right and left will form a coalition just to dump the religious parties. Did Bush believe he was making the world safe for democracy in Iraq? Regime change by a foreign occupation is not exactly a shining beacon of democratic principle. What's he doing for democracy in Saudi Arabia, which barely pays lip service to the 20th Century. Even Obama bowed to His Oiliness.

Sharon and his ilk are not men of faith. It's all blood.

he could never accept it was natural for men to like looking at naked women, so he made it a problem.

It's "natural" to defecate in ones pants, and so are a hundred other actions that one can call natural...but somehow we learn not to do them .