So they say 539K NFP but mention "Overall, private sector employment fell by 611,000. " . I wonder what the revised (real ) number is . This mistatemnt of facts sho be good for the mkts today .
black dog (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/7/2009 - 1:34 pm
re inflation v. deflation
I'm in the retail sector so I'm kinda on the front lines with j6p and use him as a prism to view things. He ain't buying unless it is a DEAL. Which doesn't do much for margins.
No way No how do I see inflation taking root (outside of commidity manipulation) in the near term (<1yr) unless one of 3 things happen to get $$'s in people's hands.
1) wages/hours go up
2) monthly stimulus checks from gov
3) return of (broad based) easy credit
until one or more of the above happens any price increase will be met with a drop in demand. Not very inflationary.
dum luk, same here. I'm in the bar/restaraunt business and they simply are NOT spending. The only busy time we have anymore is during happy hour, after that you see tumble weeds....
aint started good yet. most everyone i know are holding their breath about their jobs.pitiful,just pitiful.
ot sort of; june 1st is the beginning of hurricane season,i will be watching very closely to see throwing money works with a hurricane.thats what we do with any and all problems throw money at it.
So, can we annualise it and call it 6.5 million for 2009? Would that be far off? And how many jobs have been lost already, more than 3 million, right. So let's just call it an even 10 million by the end of 2009. At some point it will end because we can'ty all be unemployed. Therefore, green shoots.
The change in total nonfarm employment for February was revised from -651,000
to -681,000, and the change for March was revised from -663,000 to -699,000.
Monthly revisions result from additional sample reports and the monthly recal-
culation of seasonal factors.
for a total of 60k that were "never counted"
not to mention
Employment in federal government rose by 66,000 over the
month largely due to the hiring of temporary workers for Census 2010 preparatory
work.
probably won't last (and well they will be laid off when the census is over so itll just affect some month down the road)
The birth / death model added 226,000 jobs in April. We're in the teeth of the worst post-WW2 recession, and BLS is still adding jobs via b/d. Amazing.
Yes, the local and state gov't job losses are coming. Federal bailouts for the states and California? I hear those rumors here, nowhere else. And I am, indirectly, a California state employee.
I would say that those gov't layoffs would have further effects on the economy as they echo through retail and restaurant and consumer products sectors; but from what I can see, my coworkers are already budgeting as if they were unemployed.
CR -- many thanks for such quick graphing and analysis.
It looks like Gov (specifically Federal) hiring for the census was a substantial (only?) influence on this number.
I'm also still in shock that the 90% confidence inteval is +/- 430,000 jobs, but that is consistent with the magnitude of the revisions we've been seeing. Employment Situation Technical Note
Conversely, it looks like 5-14 weeks on unemployment did a better than the long-term employed. (A-9) In any case, if ~200k is what we need to add monthly for population growth we're a long way from Nirvana.
a friend of mine in southern california is a frequent spearmint rhino patron. i've been there with him a few times when i'm down in socal.
he says basically that no one is buying dances (he talks to all the strippers since he goes there like 4 times a week, yes he has nothing to do).
apparently a lot of the strippers are going broke, since some of them lost their day jobs and no one is buying dances or tipping. the strip club has gotten desperate and has free cover basically every day on their website so they are trying to just get people in there.
the insane part is they do things like 4 dances for $30 and people still wont buy them all. so my friend is there taking advantage of all tehse deals. i mean where else can you get an entire pitcher of new castle for $5, with no cover , along with 4 lapdances and a free t-shirt for $35?
But yeah, the strip clubs are hurting. no discretionary spending. One of the strrippers he knew, moved out of LA back in with her parents. she was complaining she used to be able to earn $800 on a good night and now its like $100.
The green shoots will be when strippers are making $800 a night again.
Hans:
Employment in federal government rose by 66,000 over the
month largely due to the hiring of temporary workers for Census 2010 preparatory work.
probably won't last (and well they will be laid off when the census is over so itll just affect some month down the road)
It seems there are ~1 million workers to be added and they will be employed through the Census itself. So this will continue to juice up the numbers for a year or more.
"A more enduring restraint will be the pressure on consumers to reduce their debts to more manageable levels relative both to income and to the much lower value of their homes. This effect is difficult to quantify, since so many factors determine consumers’ preferred saving rates and levels of debt: assets, retirement goals, expected income, risk tolerance, access to credit, age, and so on. ...This process, known as deleveraging, requires consumption to grow more slowly than income in coming years."
BLS BS - Birth/Death model adds 226,000 jobs this month vs 114,000 jobs last month. My favorite is leisure and hospitality adding 76000 jobs.. Have these people no shame?
From Marketwatch:
"Average hourly earnings rose 1 cent to $18.51 an hour, the smallest increase in three years. Employment in manufacturing fell by 149,000, while the average factory workweek rose by 0.2 hours, another encouraging sign, since the factory workweek is one of 10 major leading indicators. Employment in retail fell by 47,000. Financial services cut 40,000 jobs. Professional and business services cut 122,000 jobs, including 63,000 temporary workers, a discouraging sign.
Health services added 17,000 jobs. Hospitality industries cut 44,000 jobs. Government added 72,000 jobs, mostly temporary census jobs. State and local governments added 6,000 jobs, despite widespread accounts of layoffs. The consensus among economists is for gross domestic product to decline again in the current quarter, at about a 2% annualized pace, following the worst back-to-back losses for GDP in 50 years. Then, tepid growth in the second half probably won't be strong enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising further, they say."
Comments/ questions
How much does a 0.2 hour increase in workweek compate to the effect fo 149000 manufacturing jobs lost?
Only 40,000 financial jobs lost? That'll increase.
The government jobs added are mostly temporary. How long does one have a census taking job for? One month? Six months?
The green shoots will be when strippers are making $800 a night again.
LOL! I remember back in my 20's that one of the reasons my buddies and I dreaded hearing about inflation was that we figured, eventually, the gub'mint would decide to pull the $1 bill out of circulation, and we'd have to start tucking fivers into the strippers' G-strings. Blammo, instant 400% cost increase.
Haven't been in one of those places in many years, but I'm guessing that if these girls are (or rather were) making $800 a night that we might still have the $1 bill but nobody's using them in there any more. Ya learn something new every day ...
POORMAN86 (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/8/2009 - 9:09 am
BLS BS - Birth/Death model adds 226,000 jobs this month vs 114,000 jobs last month. My favorite is leisure and hospitality adding 76000 jobs.. Have these people no shame?
I went there in 2006 a few times when it was "booming" in southern california still.
Basically you might see someone throw $300 on stage. in 1s.
I have heard stories about say older guys paying a girl $500 to say hang out at their table and do nothing but sit there for say an hour. Wierd stuff at strip clubs when the economy is booming.
From the BLS news release this morning: "...the confidence interval for the monthly change in total employment from the household survey is on the order of plus or minus 430,000. Suppose the estimate of total employment increases by 100,000 from one month to the next. The 90-percent confidence interval on the monthly change would range from -330,000 to 530,000 (100,000 +/- 430,000). These figures do not mean that the sample results are off by these magnitudes, but rather that there is about a 90-percent chance that the "true" over-the-month change lies within this interval. Since this range includes values of less than zero, we could not say with confidence that employment had, in fact, increased. If, however, the reported employment rise was half a million, then all of the values within the 90-percent confidence interval would be greater than zero.
In this case, it is likely (at least a 90-percent chance) that an employment rise had, in fact, occurred. At an unemployment rate of around 5.5 percent, the 90-percent con-
fidence interval for the monthly change in unemployment is about +/- 280,000, and for the monthly change in the unemployment rate it is about +/- .19 percentage point."
So? Ist dass jetzt klar? Gut. Dann mal schoen alles richtig machen!
Und jetzt rauss hier und seid mal loyale Parteileute!
Went back and looked at B/D adjustment. It has never been negative for the entire recession. In other words, more new businesses are being created than shut down every month. Food for thought.
I have heard stories about say older guys paying a girl $500 to say hang out at their table and do nothing but sit there for say an hour. Wierd stuff at strip clubs when the economy is booming.
Sort of like buying a ceramic troll for your front lawn?
and they keep revising downward by ~30K every month as well...699k in March....just 1K short.....they rallied in April on the 663K number when in reality ot was 699k
Question: If we have lost 5.7 million jobs since the start of the recession, why are continuing claims 6.25 million?? Haven't some of those people run out of benefits? Are some job losses not eligible for unemployment insurance?
Hmmn? Seems to be a discrepancy there. Like maybe a million people?
Although industry groups have been trying to bring this market back to life, those efforts aren’t enough. The government has to get involved, setting rules that restore confidence among investors and possibly even helping to create a more-formal market structure, perhaps along the lines of a stock exchange.
Unless that happens, securitization will continue to rely on government backstops. Yet the economy needs this process to function again on its own.
Shadow-Banking System Next Up for De-Stressing
To get an idea of how much lending capacity is at stake, consider that between 2005 and 2007 more than $8 trillion in securitized products were issued globally.
Paralyzed Market
With securitization markets paralyzed since August 2007, banks have to pick up the slack. Any expansion in lending requires more capital, though, putting pressure on banks.
Securitization started in the 1970s and initially was used in mortgage markets. By moving loans off their balance sheets, or securitizing them, banks were able to lend more.
I'm not too surprised by the number (setting aside any monkeying of the numbers) coming in on the low side.
The small businesses I know have already gotten rid of the riff raff and are now down to key employees (whose hours may have been cut but still employed) which they are loathe to cut in case of a second half recovery (of 2009).
I'm doubtful of any meaningful recovery till the second half of 2010. If I'm correct then I expect in another 2 or 3 months a resumption of layoffs
Check this out for the Brith/Death model adjustment - this month's preliminary number is the largest since the April 2008 preliminary number of adding 267K jobs: Historical Net Birth/Death Adjustments
But the final April 2008 B/D added number is 176K: Fake Jobs
which is a 33% haircut to the B/D add, if we apply that to the current adjustment that would mean an additiona 75K of job losses missing from the headline number.
Repeating a question from the tag end of the last thread:
If we have lost 5.7 million jobs since the recession began (according to the BLS), why are continuing claims 6.25 million??? Have not some of the jobless lost benefits? Were not some of them ineligible in the first place?
Since Trim Tabs unemployment figures have been far more accurate than the Labor Department initial reports (ummm, let's see - February revised downward 30,000 to 681,000 jobs lost; March revised downward 36,000 to 699,000...), I wonder if anyone will notice when Obama's lackeys at the Labor Department finally revise the 539,000 down 206,000 to 745,000???
Nope, no one's trying to prop up the market so banks can unload more stock to "recapitalize," would they?
Loved the story about Obama threatening to pull California stimulus money if they don't restore the wage cuts to SEIU-member home health carer workers - it is all about protecting union jobs!
Forget the census blip - when the Labor Dept finally accounts for all the state, county, and municipal losses due to massive state & local red ink (see California woes, etc.), the government sector numbers are going to look a LOT worse than they show now.
Not sure - if I was lost in Antarctica - I would want to follow the Labor Dept compass. But then again, the polar ice caps are melting, so why not stick around and plant a victory garden?
Our economy needs to get back to true fundamentals. This constant trading in the markets to make one class of people super rich at the expense of 99 percent of the population must stop. Trading fees and taxes must be higher for block trades made by hedge funds, investment banks and private equity. Fees need to be smaller for 401K and other retirement options. Business and the general public needs to not support the high fee and income structure of Wall Street. My savings which is backstopping the banks is getting a negative returns while banks are changing their computer programs to juice NSF fees. ( Suntrust) Just to show my displeasure I would rather keep my cash under the mattress but then I would have to buy an assult weapon to protect myself and family.
Lets tax the heck out of short term investors of all types. Make stock held for five years tax free. We need our now limited and declining resourses honestly working for America. As long as short term profits continueto be the driver of all business decisions there will be limited job creation. Wall Street gangsters are doing nothing for us and the world economies. At some point in time, when the smoke clears, there are going to some really dangerously mad people and third world emerging market governements looking to make those responsible pay.
We are all adverse now.
Talking head said this is as bad as it will get. Pffft. Wait till state and local governments get busy.
so this was better than expected?
If it wasn;t for 72K gov jobs (mostly census hiring), the number would have been 611K.
Basel, silly question, everything is better than expected! That U6 is looking a bit ugly though...
So they say 539K NFP but mention "Overall, private sector employment fell by 611,000. " . I wonder what the revised (real ) number is . This mistatemnt of facts sho be good for the mkts today .
yup it was better than expected. dow 20000 here we come!
the media will call this, the green sapling. tiny little saplings , regrowing america!
State and local governments won't be allowed to cut. They will get bailed out by the feds.
why February revision is so small i'am disappointed
LOL hans, it'll be like arbor day on Wallstreet today..,.
California will declare bankruptcy in July, fire all state employees. It may show up on unemployment stats.
black dog (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/7/2009 - 1:34 pm
re inflation v. deflation
I'm in the retail sector so I'm kinda on the front lines with j6p and use him as a prism to view things. He ain't buying unless it is a DEAL. Which doesn't do much for margins.
No way No how do I see inflation taking root (outside of commidity manipulation) in the near term (<1yr) unless one of 3 things happen to get $$'s in people's hands.
1) wages/hours go up
2) monthly stimulus checks from gov
3) return of (broad based) easy credit
until one or more of the above happens any price increase will be met with a drop in demand. Not very inflationary.
OT:
Fannie Mae reports 23.2 billion loss. I'm guessing they'll need more TARP money.
dum luk, same here. I'm in the bar/restaraunt business and they simply are NOT spending. The only busy time we have anymore is during happy hour, after that you see tumble weeds....
aint started good yet. most everyone i know are holding their breath about their jobs.pitiful,just pitiful.
ot sort of; june 1st is the beginning of hurricane season,i will be watching very closely to see throwing money works with a hurricane.thats what we do with any and all problems throw money at it.
March revised to 699,000
Revised upward or downward? What was the March number?
Nuke,
Fannie Mae has a separate pool of $200 billion dollars that it dips into (courtesy of Henry Paulson and Congress.)
So, can we annualise it and call it 6.5 million for 2009? Would that be far off? And how many jobs have been lost already, more than 3 million, right. So let's just call it an even 10 million by the end of 2009. At some point it will end because we can'ty all be unemployed. Therefore, green shoots.
upward Jackrabbit.
8:11 Wells Fargo prices 272 mln shares at $22/share - DJ
8:54 Wells Fargo confirms 341 mln share common stock offering price at $22/share
Hit the bid! Hit the bid quick! Before they catch on!
U6 only up 0.2%
Rajesh:
How much is left. They must have burned through most of it already.
Fannie needs more cash. Only $19B.
State and local government added 6K? How is that possible. Pretty much every state is running way behind on their budget projections.
Feb revised to 681 from 651
Mar revised to 699 from 663
down ward revision for fed and march
The change in total nonfarm employment for February was revised from -651,000
to -681,000, and the change for March was revised from -663,000 to -699,000.
Monthly revisions result from additional sample reports and the monthly recal-
culation of seasonal factors.
for a total of 60k that were "never counted"
not to mention
Employment in federal government rose by 66,000 over the
month largely due to the hiring of temporary workers for Census 2010 preparatory
work.
probably won't last (and well they will be laid off when the census is over so itll just affect some month down the road)
thanks for the reality, CR.
i checked the script over at MarketCrotch:
"Swoon's a 1-day wonder "
""the pace of job destruction is slowly easing""
" Job boom coming?"
RATM,
I wonder what kind of chunk Warren Buffet is picking up off of this offering.
The birth / death model added 226,000 jobs in April. We're in the teeth of the worst post-WW2 recession, and BLS is still adding jobs via b/d. Amazing.
Yes, the local and state gov't job losses are coming. Federal bailouts for the states and California? I hear those rumors here, nowhere else. And I am, indirectly, a California state employee.
I would say that those gov't layoffs would have further effects on the economy as they echo through retail and restaurant and consumer products sectors; but from what I can see, my coworkers are already budgeting as if they were unemployed.
CR -- many thanks for such quick graphing and analysis.
It looks like Gov (specifically Federal) hiring for the census was a substantial (only?) influence on this number.
I'm also still in shock that the 90% confidence inteval is +/- 430,000 jobs, but that is consistent with the magnitude of the revisions we've been seeing. Employment Situation Technical Note
Conversely, it looks like 5-14 weeks on unemployment did a better than the long-term employed. (A-9) In any case, if ~200k is what we need to add monthly for population growth we're a long way from Nirvana.
a friend of mine in southern california is a frequent spearmint rhino patron. i've been there with him a few times when i'm down in socal.
he says basically that no one is buying dances (he talks to all the strippers since he goes there like 4 times a week, yes he has nothing to do).
apparently a lot of the strippers are going broke, since some of them lost their day jobs and no one is buying dances or tipping. the strip club has gotten desperate and has free cover basically every day on their website so they are trying to just get people in there.
the insane part is they do things like 4 dances for $30 and people still wont buy them all. so my friend is there taking advantage of all tehse deals. i mean where else can you get an entire pitcher of new castle for $5, with no cover , along with 4 lapdances and a free t-shirt for $35?
But yeah, the strip clubs are hurting. no discretionary spending. One of the strrippers he knew, moved out of LA back in with her parents. she was complaining she used to be able to earn $800 on a good night and now its like $100.
The green shoots will be when strippers are making $800 a night again.
Hans:
Employment in federal government rose by 66,000 over the
month largely due to the hiring of temporary workers for Census 2010 preparatory work.
probably won't last (and well they will be laid off when the census is over so itll just affect some month down the road)
It seems there are ~1 million workers to be added and they will be employed through the Census itself. So this will continue to juice up the numbers for a year or more.
EMRATIO update will be interesting to see...
"A more enduring restraint will be the pressure on consumers to reduce their debts to more manageable levels relative both to income and to the much lower value of their homes. This effect is difficult to quantify, since so many factors determine consumers’ preferred saving rates and levels of debt: assets, retirement goals, expected income, risk tolerance, access to credit, age, and so on. ...This process, known as deleveraging, requires consumption to grow more slowly than income in coming years."
Premium content | Economist.com
-663 Jackrabbit
so we had, on average 4 straight months around -700k ( dec, jan, feb, march ) talk about green shoots
hans (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/8/2009 - 6:03 am
The green shoots will be when strippers are making $800 a night again.
Are strippers counted as a service industry or education?
I guess it depends on the degree of exposure and the state of the observer. Stripping - the original quantum occupation.
From the info on the decline of consumer credit yesterday, your coworkers have alot of company...
BLS BS - Birth/Death model adds 226,000 jobs this month vs 114,000 jobs last month. My favorite is leisure and hospitality adding 76000 jobs.. Have these people no shame?
Fake Jobs
It seems there are ~1 million workers to be added and they will be employed through the Census itself.
I've seen that estimate before, as well. So it basically means that 1 out of every 300 people in America will be involved in counting the other 299?
Strip clubs are also hurting because of the cutbacks in corporate travel.
hans, I lost you on the slang of the first sentence. What were you talking about re your friend in socal?
basically that you can tell how free people are to spend money by how much they spend at strip clubs.
the "spearmint rhino" is a particularly large chain of them in southern california.
spearmint rhino = LA "gentlemen's" club
spearmint rhino=titty bar
From Marketwatch:
"Average hourly earnings rose 1 cent to $18.51 an hour, the smallest increase in three years. Employment in manufacturing fell by 149,000, while the average factory workweek rose by 0.2 hours, another encouraging sign, since the factory workweek is one of 10 major leading indicators. Employment in retail fell by 47,000. Financial services cut 40,000 jobs. Professional and business services cut 122,000 jobs, including 63,000 temporary workers, a discouraging sign.
Health services added 17,000 jobs. Hospitality industries cut 44,000 jobs. Government added 72,000 jobs, mostly temporary census jobs. State and local governments added 6,000 jobs, despite widespread accounts of layoffs. The consensus among economists is for gross domestic product to decline again in the current quarter, at about a 2% annualized pace, following the worst back-to-back losses for GDP in 50 years. Then, tepid growth in the second half probably won't be strong enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising further, they say."
Comments/ questions
How much does a 0.2 hour increase in workweek compate to the effect fo 149000 manufacturing jobs lost?
Only 40,000 financial jobs lost? That'll increase.
The government jobs added are mostly temporary. How long does one have a census taking job for? One month? Six months?
spearmint rhino is a chain of strip clubs
LOL!
Three quick reponses on the name of the club...too funny
The green shoots will be when strippers are making $800 a night again.
LOL! I remember back in my 20's that one of the reasons my buddies and I dreaded hearing about inflation was that we figured, eventually, the gub'mint would decide to pull the $1 bill out of circulation, and we'd have to start tucking fivers into the strippers' G-strings. Blammo, instant 400% cost increase.
Haven't been in one of those places in many years, but I'm guessing that if these girls are (or rather were) making $800 a night that we might still have the $1 bill but nobody's using them in there any more. Ya learn something new every day ...
POORMAN86 (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/8/2009 - 9:09 am
BLS BS - Birth/Death model adds 226,000 jobs this month vs 114,000 jobs last month. My favorite is leisure and hospitality adding 76000 jobs.. Have these people no shame?
If you have to ask, you already know the answer.
+241,000= April birth/death adjustment!
Rate of change on the U-6 YoY unadjusted number looks to be about flat at 73% (15.4% - 8.9%)/8.9%
Plot of YoY changes will have a flat segment once it is updated (out of town atm):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_jbs0fnMs1sc/Sdd7eNiCuOI/AAAAAAAAAG0/tpciGgfzF80/s1600-h/U-6+04APR2009.PNG
thanks POORMAN86, nice catch
just an hour ago, bond quotes
10y 3.40
30y 4.40
now 10y 3.27, 30y 4.26
Outstanding
they still use $1.
I went there in 2006 a few times when it was "booming" in southern california still.
Basically you might see someone throw $300 on stage. in 1s.
I have heard stories about say older guys paying a girl $500 to say hang out at their table and do nothing but sit there for say an hour. Wierd stuff at strip clubs when the economy is booming.
Meet the new boss same as the old boos . Crooks and Liars .
From the BLS news release this morning: "...the confidence interval for the monthly change in total employment from the household survey is on the order of plus or minus 430,000. Suppose the estimate of total employment increases by 100,000 from one month to the next. The 90-percent confidence interval on the monthly change would range from -330,000 to 530,000 (100,000 +/- 430,000). These figures do not mean that the sample results are off by these magnitudes, but rather that there is about a 90-percent chance that the "true" over-the-month change lies within this interval. Since this range includes values of less than zero, we could not say with confidence that employment had, in fact, increased. If, however, the reported employment rise was half a million, then all of the values within the 90-percent confidence interval would be greater than zero.
In this case, it is likely (at least a 90-percent chance) that an employment rise had, in fact, occurred. At an unemployment rate of around 5.5 percent, the 90-percent con-
fidence interval for the monthly change in unemployment is about +/- 280,000, and for the monthly change in the unemployment rate it is about +/- .19 percentage point."
So? Ist dass jetzt klar? Gut. Dann mal schoen alles richtig machen!
Und jetzt rauss hier und seid mal loyale Parteileute!
Went back and looked at B/D adjustment. It has never been negative for the entire recession. In other words, more new businesses are being created than shut down every month. Food for thought.
I have heard stories about say older guys paying a girl $500 to say hang out at their table and do nothing but sit there for say an hour. Wierd stuff at strip clubs when the economy is booming.
Sort of like buying a ceramic troll for your front lawn?
and they keep revising downward by ~30K every month as well...699k in March....just 1K short.....they rallied in April on the 663K number when in reality ot was 699k
JoblessRecovery.com is available. I just checked godaddy
Johnny Lee (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/8/2009 - 9:21 am
just an hour ago, bond quotes
10y 3.40
30y 4.40
now 10y 3.27, 30y 4.26
Outstanding
Oh don't worry, they'll be back, and soon. Maybe by the end of the day.
Gold up, Silver up, dollar cliff diving....interesting day awaits.
Question: If we have lost 5.7 million jobs since the start of the recession, why are continuing claims 6.25 million?? Haven't some of those people run out of benefits? Are some job losses not eligible for unemployment insurance?
Hmmn? Seems to be a discrepancy there. Like maybe a million people?
JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/8/2009 - 9:27 am
Sort of like buying a ceramic troll for your front lawn?
Yeah, except in this example, the troll does the buying.
Although industry groups have been trying to bring this market back to life, those efforts aren’t enough. The government has to get involved, setting rules that restore confidence among investors and possibly even helping to create a more-formal market structure, perhaps along the lines of a stock exchange.
Unless that happens, securitization will continue to rely on government backstops. Yet the economy needs this process to function again on its own.
Shadow-Banking System Next Up for De-Stressing
Shadow-Banking System Next Up for De-Stressing: David Reilly - Bloomberg.com
To get an idea of how much lending capacity is at stake, consider that between 2005 and 2007 more than $8 trillion in securitized products were issued globally.
Paralyzed Market
With securitization markets paralyzed since August 2007, banks have to pick up the slack. Any expansion in lending requires more capital, though, putting pressure on banks.
Securitization started in the 1970s and initially was used in mortgage markets. By moving loans off their balance sheets, or securitizing them, banks were able to lend more.
If this number is so good, why are treasuries tanking? Oh yeah, bond traders actually read the fine print.
B. of A. prices stock offering at $8.79 a share
about the census jobs
2010 Census Jobs
I'm not too surprised by the number (setting aside any monkeying of the numbers) coming in on the low side.
The small businesses I know have already gotten rid of the riff raff and are now down to key employees (whose hours may have been cut but still employed) which they are loathe to cut in case of a second half recovery (of 2009).
I'm doubtful of any meaningful recovery till the second half of 2010. If I'm correct then I expect in another 2 or 3 months a resumption of layoffs
From Mktwatch:
9:38 a.m.
[FITB] Fifth Third Bancorp up 33%
Wow, hope no one is short there ...
Check this out for the Brith/Death model adjustment - this month's preliminary number is the largest since the April 2008 preliminary number of adding 267K jobs:
Historical Net Birth/Death Adjustments
But the final April 2008 B/D added number is 176K:
Fake Jobs
which is a 33% haircut to the B/D add, if we apply that to the current adjustment that would mean an additiona 75K of job losses missing from the headline number.
Can any of you say "permanent census"?
Repeating a question from the tag end of the last thread:
If we have lost 5.7 million jobs since the recession began (according to the BLS), why are continuing claims 6.25 million??? Have not some of the jobless lost benefits? Were not some of them ineligible in the first place?
Since Trim Tabs unemployment figures have been far more accurate than the Labor Department initial reports (ummm, let's see - February revised downward 30,000 to 681,000 jobs lost; March revised downward 36,000 to 699,000...), I wonder if anyone will notice when Obama's lackeys at the Labor Department finally revise the 539,000 down 206,000 to 745,000???
Nope, no one's trying to prop up the market so banks can unload more stock to "recapitalize," would they?
Nah.
If it wasn't for census hiring, the number would have been over 600,000 again - what are the "underemployment" numbers?
Loved the story about Obama threatening to pull California stimulus money if they don't restore the wage cuts to SEIU-member home health carer workers - it is all about protecting union jobs!
Forget the census blip - when the Labor Dept finally accounts for all the state, county, and municipal losses due to massive state & local red ink (see California woes, etc.), the government sector numbers are going to look a LOT worse than they show now.
Not sure - if I was lost in Antarctica - I would want to follow the Labor Dept compass. But then again, the polar ice caps are melting, so why not stick around and plant a victory garden?
Sonic Seuss (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/8/2009 - 5:59 am reply Ignore user
Feb revised to 681 from 651
Mar revised to 699 from 663
I bet that April will be revised to >770K
Our economy needs to get back to true fundamentals. This constant trading in the markets to make one class of people super rich at the expense of 99 percent of the population must stop. Trading fees and taxes must be higher for block trades made by hedge funds, investment banks and private equity. Fees need to be smaller for 401K and other retirement options. Business and the general public needs to not support the high fee and income structure of Wall Street. My savings which is backstopping the banks is getting a negative returns while banks are changing their computer programs to juice NSF fees. ( Suntrust) Just to show my displeasure I would rather keep my cash under the mattress but then I would have to buy an assult weapon to protect myself and family.
Lets tax the heck out of short term investors of all types. Make stock held for five years tax free. We need our now limited and declining resourses honestly working for America. As long as short term profits continueto be the driver of all business decisions there will be limited job creation. Wall Street gangsters are doing nothing for us and the world economies. At some point in time, when the smoke clears, there are going to some really dangerously mad people and third world emerging market governements looking to make those responsible pay.
State & local governments + jobs = state employment/unemployment staff increases ?