[From last thread]
"very rough analogy here, but think of the holder of a CDS as similar to the holder of an insurance policy."
Not rough at all, but the heart of the problem. CDS were written as insurance policies by entities who were not covered by insurance regulation, which tries to ensure that the writers have enough reserves to pay.
The holders go to the head of the line only to the extent of collateral that they are already holding, not the notional value of the swap. And that's only if a BK judge does not find that the CDS itself was a sham transaction and void it. I would, under certain circumstances, e.g., AIG writing to GS.
kind of like being wound around by an anaconda snake. each time you exhale, the snake tightens just a bit. Finally, it is so tight that you can't inhale.
I am just giving my honest assessment from my perch which overseeas three different industries in California, I also am one of those who report numbers to the census bureau every month...
Agree and yet so many said it would not stop the decline...why is that?
Maybe they still remember how the housing bubble stopped the decline after the dot.CON bubble. That and the fact that a housing bubble is far more destructive than a quaint little tech led stock bust.
I see tough times ahead for the majority.
And remember, we have to save wall street because they are the biggest political donors.
Wow I was refreshing my market charts, and the DOW had dropped in a straight line off a cliff. Refreshed and it is gone now. Was very weird, probably a software glitch, anyone else see this?
BTW - I consider both mfg & non-mfg ISM's to be rather 'inaccurate'... sort of like trying to measure temperature with your finger [a rough scale at best: hot, warm, cool, cold]... just because they release a value to three sig figs doesn't mean the measure is precise...
I see the recent 43.7 as 'the same as' last months 40.8 WITHIN THE PRECISION OF THE MEASUREMENT PROCESS [basically an opinion poll of buyers]. And that isn't just 'sample error' it's that opinions can't be extrapolated to REALITY any better than that.
Seriously I'd give ISM +/- 5 error bars... unless the change exceeds 5 points... the real economic environment is probably pretty much unchanged.
"thanks to trillions of dollars of govt spending and money creation"
Agree and yet so many said it would not stop the decline...why is that?
That's not a wise claim some people are making.
Money printing, negative real interest rates, and inflation are usually effective in generating economic growth in the short-term - which is why these kinds of policies are so frequently abused.
It's the long-term damage they cause to the financial system and structure of the economy that often end up being fatal.
Sometimes the consequences can be short-term also:
If foreign countries suddenly lose faith in the dollar over the next few months, and incipient recovery could be choked off by a halt in capital flows and Bernanke and the politicians may be left totally emasculated and completely helpless to do anything about it.
Longer-term consequences might be more dire:
As an enlightened nation we have abandoned what have traditionally been vital aspects of government and civil authority: national identity, religion, idealism, etc. (Most people don't seem to understand these are just forms of government, not purely forms of mystical self-indulgence or delusion.)
We are now a nation bound by the pursuit of wealth - the dollar is our "god" so to speak. Destruction of the dollar may well leave our nation "ungovernable" and might require a transition to much more brutal forms of authoritarianism and elimination of individual freedoms to retain control.
I don't think we're immune to the sort of historical calamities that have befallen other nations if we follow the same path they did.
crispyandcole (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/5/2009 - 12:18 pm
Agree and yet so many said it would not stop the decline...why is that?
Byzantine_Ruins says:
10/12/2008, 06:33:05 PM
“There we go everyone, that's a wrap. We'll just guarantee everything. Crisis solved.
Scene: An anonymous central banker has his hands in two puppets. He is stimulating interbank lending. One puppet passes a billion dollars to the other. Then the second puppet passes it back to the first.
Won't you come play the lending game with him, I mean, them? He'd really, really like your foreign exchange reserves.
We should be seeing the Porkulus construction projects pretty soon - lots of hard hats and traffic cones all over the place ... The economy will start looking rosy then, for a while... But it's like when I had a house that was built on a lot of red clay - the grass would grow as long as I kept putting fertilizer and water on it, but if that stopped the grass died immediately..
You know there is going to be a big rah rah call in congress for more stimulus spending next year when they are looking at the approaching election and all those bad mortgages are getting ready to reset, and Porkulus 1 has run out of steam... Wonder if the Fed will still be able to buy the bonds then???
Belongs on the previous thread, but here is the link to my write up and comments on Ben's lil chat with the congresscritters: Ben Testifies, We Interpret
ac, liked your post. I would argue that we were not 'enlightened' but barbaric. The very aspects you mention as strengths are traits not tolerated by highly advanced societies. That is why I think we have become too civilized. We don't have a direction because we look through everyone's eyes and see all directions. The world isn't flat to us anymore. I am a romantic, I like the barbarian more than the civilized man. How I wish Robert Howard had written more. edit just reread, and realized I misunderstood your use on enlightened. sorry about that. I thought you were saying we were enlightened in the past not present.
"Wonder how much of that increased mfg is export related? "
It's not increasing, it's DECREASING, just at a slower rate. CNBC must have confused you
Imagine a plane in a steep dive, rapidly approaching the earth at a rate of, say 2000 feet per minute. As the plane nears impact, the pilot finally manages to pull the nose up a bit. The descent rate slows to 1500 feet per minute.
Meanwhile, the stuff on the ground is still getting bigger at an alarming pace.
And apparently there is a terrorist in the back of the plane with a "debt bomb," whatever that is, who is threatening to blow up the plane if the pilot manages to level it out before impact.
I thought this was a pretty good summation of the Fed's actions in the credit market, and why the indicators we're seeing have held up so nicely. Very good read.
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/5/2009 - 4:29 pm
Wow I was refreshing my market charts, and the DOW had dropped in a straight line off a cliff. Refreshed and it is gone now. Was very weird, probably a software glitch, anyone else see this?
Man I love that movie. So glad Spielberg hasn't pulled a Lucas and tried to remake it with a happy ending. HAN SHOT FIRST! Seems the good director thinks a man driving his family away as he chases blinking lights in the sky is no longer a good message to send. I almost choked when I read that. It is amazing how we all change our perspectives as we age.
ac, liked your post. I would argue that we were not 'enlightened' but barbaric. The very aspects you mention as strengths are traits not tolerated by highly advanced societies. That is why I think we have become too civilized. We don't have a direction because we look through everyone's eyes and see all directions. The world isn't flat to us anymore. I am a romantic, I like the barbarian more than the civilized man. How I wish Robert Howard had written more. edit just reread, and realized I misunderstood your use on enlightened. sorry about that. I thought you were saying we were enlightened in the past not present.
The conclusion I have come to is that the most fundamental problem facing societies is that socially productive behaviors on the part of the individual are often irrational from the individual perspective. I.E. a purely rational person that goes around making decisions purely based on what's in their best interest is basically a sociopath.
We actually see this in animals besides humans - animals that tend to form social groups also tend to exhibit "irrational" behaviors (like endangering themselves to save other animals). There seems to be actual selection pressures that generate these types of behaviors.
The problem with all this is that it seems to suggest that the sort of behaviors or thinking that forms social structures may not proceed in any direct way from things like knowledge or education.
You can see a great example of that right now:
The smartest, most educated people in the world are on Wall Street right now and what have they used all that intelligence and education for? To commit one of the greatest crimes in history.
Recovery - Built entirely on a mountain of unprecedented USG interference. Just shifting the entire burden onto the lap of the US taxpayer, even without his/her expressed consent.
When the 10yr cracks the poorly engineered recovery will be OVER.
Gavshire really good link... pasted a good paragraph..
Maybe more than any other headline credit market indicator of the moment Fed actions have distorted what used to be the prior “risk based” message of LIBOR. And that cuts right to the conceptual heart of government intervention. Just how the heck can the private sector assess risk and allocate capital correctly and efficiently when the Fed/Treasury/Administration is acting to help “misprice” assets and risk measures? There will be no true recovery in the economy and capital markets until risk is being priced appropriately and all risks are known (the issue of transparency). Make no mistake about it; the decline in LIBOR is not a result of credit market healing and the lessening of risk perceptions. It’s a result of the Fed TAF. And so once again, how do they step away from this intervention?
I propose that anyone who says bulldozing new houses is good because it stabilizes prices be publicly humiliated (virtually) for the rest of his career.
ac, I almost got stoned in high school (very religious town) because I said the real heart of Jesus' message was to be selfish not selfless. The reason I believe this is that if you use logic to apply to Do unto Others... the most selfish person in the world would make sure his neighbors needs were met in order to enjoy his own. Equality of the masses would ensure you always had your own apple pie. Didn't go over well. I have always been going upstream when the rest of the fishes were going down. If we would just admit we were selfish creatures and get over ourselves, the magicians on wall st. wouldn't believe they were gods and sit on top of those ivory towers. Every once in a while they really believe they can fly don't they?
The Victorville house bulldozing finally made it to the Wall St. Journal today - the WSJ story says those houses had been taken over by squatters and vandals so they were not the brand new models but heavily trashed - that explains the code violations .... Even though it looks like typical American waste, I think in these circumstances if I was the bank I'd probably flatten them too.....
The American people elected the Congress that approved part of the bailout, but, unfortunately, the previous President who appointed the Fed Chairman was not elected by the American people; so you're only partially corrct.
Congresspersons are not really elected. They are marketed and sold to the public, like detergent or the trash on home shopping networks, using special interest money for the ad campaign.
That is why we have so many problems. Those elected do not truly have the interests of the electorate at heart. (with a few notable, chrerished, exceptions -- who are more or less powerless in terms of arresting the damaging actions of their peers).
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/5/2009 - 10:00 am reply Ignore user
I propose that anyone who says bulldozing new houses is good because it stabilizes prices be publicly humiliated (virtually) for the rest of his career.
Agreed but bulldozing houses is good because it is a market response and acknowledges true pricing.
How long before we go from "these houses aren't worth the sticks they're built with" to "these 10yr notes aren't worth the paper they're printed on?"
There is still plenty of time to sell in May... and this might be a really good time to do it too.... Jeff Macke said he shorted the sp500 yesterday....
the most selfish person in the world would make sure his neighbors needs were met in order to enjoy his own. Equality of the masses would ensure you always had your own apple pie. Didn't go over well. I have always been going upstream when the rest of the fishes were going down.
I have always felt that the major, common directives from the great religions all have to do with ensuring that as many people as possible lead a safe and healthy and secure life, and so do their children. A healthy life takes good neighbors on the same wavelength for help in time of trouble, a community that can come together and pool resources to solve the problems that affect everyone as individuals.
To do this takes sacrifices from everyone; to not do this -- well, you could end up with a nice house and two kids and two SUVs living in the middle of a dying housing tract half inhabited by bandos.... and oh yeah, your health insurer has decided to stop covering special treatments for your child's chronic medical condition, and, and, and...
the most selfish person in the world would make sure his neighbors needs were met in order to enjoy his own
The problem is the benefits of a lot of "social" productive behaviors are asymmetric payouts. Mancur Olson talks extensively about this sort of stuff and makes some pretty good arguments. In terms of contributing to a community, for example, the benefits of an individual not contributing and getting a "free ride" from the contributions of the others creates an incentive to do so. The cost to the community of making sure each last individual contributes may not be justifiable simply because a couple of individuals in a community of thousands doesn't warrant the effort.. In other words you get a lot of situations where it "pays" to take advantage of the situation and be socially parasitic.
Bob that is why the little gated upper middle class communities that have sprouted up all over the place bother me so much. First it is paranoia, but second I mean does anyone study Rome anymore, what happened to those wealthy citizens that moved out to their country estates with private guards and gated vineyards.... they were some of the first to fall to the scouting parties from up north. It is all false security. Together we stand, divided we fall when the mighty Canadian hordes descend upon us, that simple.
How come Ron Paul didn't ask Bernanke what he expects to do with all that 4.5% GSE paper when the 30yr hits 8% ? Maybe Benrnanke will say the 30yr will never hit 30% because before it gets there he'll buy it all the way back down ?
This God-of-Economics-and-Finance behavior of the Fed is MAX hubris. We'll see how it turns out.
I have always felt that the major, common directives from the great religions all have to do with ensuring that as many people as possible lead a safe and healthy and secure life, and so do their children.
I think what is key with religions and belief systems that attempt to provide social benefits is that they in effect attempt to create government through internal rather than external mechanisms.
Because of the things I see happening recently I spend more time wondering if what's important is not whether certain beliefs are valid, but whether the lead to socially healthy outcomes.
You know, maybe I don't believe in the specifics of certain religions or ideologies, but if they obviate the need for the Gestapo 2.0 then perhaps I can concede that they have some merit.
Just in case you missed it, here is some good news for all the bankers.
(link)
just incredible...they have not learned a F^(&ing thing
from the article
" May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street, after getting billions of taxpayer dollars, will emerge from the financial crisis looking much the same as before markets collapsed, said H. Rodgin Cohen, chairman of law firm Sullivan & Cromwell LLP.
“The system will look more like what preceded the current environment than many people seem to believe,” Cohen said yesterday at a panel discussion on the future of Wall Street sponsored by Bloomberg News in New York. “I am far from convinced there was something inherently wrong with the system.” "
ac, agreed. I have a lot of pent up issues with Christianity, but I still see that it can do some 'good' for society. The very early churches, and I mean before Emperor Constantine, were communes that tried to teach people how to live as a brotherhood. Of course we tried to do this in the 60s even bringing back the very bad hygiene but I have no problem with people getting together trying to live better lives. Problem is that after Paul, the fundamental message of Christianity changed in my opinion, and not for the better. In the end, religion is a tool to condition people and like all tools can be used wisely or unwisely.
I've been following forecloses, short sales and REOs in several areas of FL. The inventory is way, way up yoy and nothing is moving. Even the units where prices have been lowered by 2/3 aren't selling.
FL is a total bloodbath. I was in Phoenix and Scottsdale a few weeks ago. Another bloodbath. I don't think we are anywhere near the half way point on the actual foreclosures. And I seriously doubt the banks or the stress tests are modeling the numbers correctly. The system has too many built in biases.
"I have always felt that the major, common directives from the great religions all have to do with ensuring that as many people as possible lead a safe and healthy and secure life, and so do their children."
yeah all that and....KONTROL.. of the masses with a form of super nationalism
I probably missed previous posts from you where you explained your disdain for the uber-bear viewpoint. Now I just see smug posts about how right you were/are, without much explanation of why you feel that way. Don't get me wrong, I very much respect your opinion, but I want to know what it's based upon. So, just so I know where you're coming from...
Are you seeing things in your business environment that indicate the financial system has healed, and banks are ready to lend willy-nilly again?
Are you seeing evidence that consumers and businesses are ready to expand their spending, and return to levels of the boom?
Do you see company earnings growing in coming quarters, and returning to boom or near-boom levels?
Do you believe that things are actually improving, or just getting bad more slowly?
Do you think the government can provide the impetus for all this healing, and have it turn out any better than their last debt-based solution (the housing bubble)?
"Agreed but bulldozing houses is good because it is a market response and acknowledges true pricing. "
10 restaurants open and close in a month at the same location. Each opening involves transaction, advertising, and remodeling costs. Each decision to rip out the old interior is an intelligent 'market response', because the old didn't sell.
A soup kitchen wants to run a non-profit pay what you can operation on the site. But the bank keeps looking for restaurateurs so they can pay bonuses a little longer before unloading their liabilities on the FDIC/taxpayer.
Not too weak at present at all. Just look at the enlightened religions and cults we have now and how tolerant they are...the "greens", "organic food cultists" professing eternal life through chemistry, etc. There are plenty of religions that are faddish now. Let's all go now and celebrate diversity.
It's all over .....HURRRAAYYY!!!!!!!
ISM...just ask me
C&C index predicted this in the 1st qtr...just saying...
At this point, any real activity that would indicate a slower decline - apart from the financial speak - is appreciated.
Wonder how much of that increased mfg is export related?
YoY comparisons will get easier as last year the recession was already underway. Won't have any significant recovery this year or next.
the pace of contraction is slowing...
thanks to trillions of dollars of govt spending and money creation and pushing off inevitable foreclosures for thousands of homeowners.
slower contraction <> recovery
It's a tsunami of good news.
Non-Manufacturing
Is that related to non-profit?
"thanks to trillions of dollars of govt spending and money creation"
Agree and yet so many said it would not stop the decline...why is that?
"Agree and yet so many said it would not stop the decline...why is that? "
It hasn't stopped the decline, by definition we are still declining, just at a slower pace, where do you see the decline stopping?
At best, the Titanic has reached bottom. Ascent will begin...oh, real soon now.
But really, it's just one month. Show me six, and we'll know something.
Funny how the powers that be are is so slow to declare a recession and so quick to infer that it might be ending... from one minute data point.
C&C
Pushing off the inevitable decline down the road. Maybe by only a few months
Crispy:
I think that people saw an almost immediate collapse of the currency on the heels of such spending. It would be a one-two punch, so to speak.
I don't think that people have any kind of time-frame for this stuff.
[From last thread]
"very rough analogy here, but think of the holder of a CDS as similar to the holder of an insurance policy."
Not rough at all, but the heart of the problem. CDS were written as insurance policies by entities who were not covered by insurance regulation, which tries to ensure that the writers have enough reserves to pay.
The holders go to the head of the line only to the extent of collateral that they are already holding, not the notional value of the swap. And that's only if a BK judge does not find that the CDS itself was a sham transaction and void it. I would, under certain circumstances, e.g., AIG writing to GS.
'still contracting, but at a slower rate'
kind of like being wound around by an anaconda snake. each time you exhale, the snake tightens just a bit. Finally, it is so tight that you can't inhale.
I am short the C&C index... with margin
Pretty soon we'll be able to manufacture soylent green with actual shoots! It's time to put the CON back in the eCONomy.
"where do you see the decline stopping?"
In my business and all around me...off a much lower base, yes, however, the contraction has stopped. Am I seeing any growth, NO
In new york people don't say, "recession." We say things like, "times like these." Meanwhile, the ad business blows chunky monkey all over the ism.
"I am short the C&C index... with margin "
LOL!!!
I am just giving my honest assessment from my perch which overseeas three different industries in California, I also am one of those who report numbers to the census bureau every month...
In my business and all around me...off a much lower base, yes, however, the contraction has stopped. Am I seeing any growth, NO
What business?
Eat Soylent Green Shoots
Ingest we trust faith in our
Donner Party food
Good fun C&C just good fun nothing personal .
Agree and yet so many said it would not stop the decline...why is that?
Maybe they still remember how the housing bubble stopped the decline after the dot.CON bubble. That and the fact that a housing bubble is far more destructive than a quaint little tech led stock bust.
I see tough times ahead for the majority.
And remember, we have to save wall street because they are the biggest political donors.
Wow I was refreshing my market charts, and the DOW had dropped in a straight line off a cliff. Refreshed and it is gone now. Was very weird, probably a software glitch, anyone else see this?
When you are a child you long for recess, but when you re an adult you fear recession.
@Bobb Dobbs
It is easier to sink the unsinkable than to raise it...
~miser
We'll all be farting through silk again soon...
:: ::
BTW - I consider both mfg & non-mfg ISM's to be rather 'inaccurate'... sort of like trying to measure temperature with your finger [a rough scale at best: hot, warm, cool, cold]... just because they release a value to three sig figs doesn't mean the measure is precise...
I see the recent 43.7 as 'the same as' last months 40.8 WITHIN THE PRECISION OF THE MEASUREMENT PROCESS [basically an opinion poll of buyers]. And that isn't just 'sample error' it's that opinions can't be extrapolated to REALITY any better than that.
Seriously I'd give ISM +/- 5 error bars... unless the change exceeds 5 points... the real economic environment is probably pretty much unchanged.
Angry Saver
Yes the decline was stopped by the cheapest money in history now we have to pay it back with 7 years of interest. At least seven years.
"thanks to trillions of dollars of govt spending and money creation"
Agree and yet so many said it would not stop the decline...why is that?
That's not a wise claim some people are making.
Money printing, negative real interest rates, and inflation are usually effective in generating economic growth in the short-term - which is why these kinds of policies are so frequently abused.
It's the long-term damage they cause to the financial system and structure of the economy that often end up being fatal.
Sometimes the consequences can be short-term also:
If foreign countries suddenly lose faith in the dollar over the next few months, and incipient recovery could be choked off by a halt in capital flows and Bernanke and the politicians may be left totally emasculated and completely helpless to do anything about it.
Longer-term consequences might be more dire:
As an enlightened nation we have abandoned what have traditionally been vital aspects of government and civil authority: national identity, religion, idealism, etc. (Most people don't seem to understand these are just forms of government, not purely forms of mystical self-indulgence or delusion.)
We are now a nation bound by the pursuit of wealth - the dollar is our "god" so to speak. Destruction of the dollar may well leave our nation "ungovernable" and might require a transition to much more brutal forms of authoritarianism and elimination of individual freedoms to retain control.
I don't think we're immune to the sort of historical calamities that have befallen other nations if we follow the same path they did.
Critical Sinkers, the too big, too fail.
crispyandcole (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/5/2009 - 12:18 pm
Agree and yet so many said it would not stop the decline...why is that?
Byzantine_Ruins says:
10/12/2008, 06:33:05 PM
“There we go everyone, that's a wrap. We'll just guarantee everything. Crisis solved.
Scene: An anonymous central banker has his hands in two puppets. He is stimulating interbank lending. One puppet passes a billion dollars to the other. Then the second puppet passes it back to the first.
Won't you come play the lending game with him, I mean, them? He'd really, really like your foreign exchange reserves.
We should be seeing the Porkulus construction projects pretty soon - lots of hard hats and traffic cones all over the place ... The economy will start looking rosy then, for a while... But it's like when I had a house that was built on a lot of red clay - the grass would grow as long as I kept putting fertilizer and water on it, but if that stopped the grass died immediately..
You know there is going to be a big rah rah call in congress for more stimulus spending next year when they are looking at the approaching election and all those bad mortgages are getting ready to reset, and Porkulus 1 has run out of steam... Wonder if the Fed will still be able to buy the bonds then???
Doubling down 400 shares of FAZ now. C&C this FAZ is for you!
Belongs on the previous thread, but here is the link to my write up and comments on Ben's lil chat with the congresscritters: Ben Testifies, We Interpret
It's a slow death . . . like a slow-motion Sam Peckinpah scene.
ac, liked your post. I would argue that we were not 'enlightened' but barbaric. The very aspects you mention as strengths are traits not tolerated by highly advanced societies. That is why I think we have become too civilized. We don't have a direction because we look through everyone's eyes and see all directions. The world isn't flat to us anymore. I am a romantic, I like the barbarian more than the civilized man. How I wish Robert Howard had written more. edit just reread, and realized I misunderstood your use on enlightened. sorry about that. I thought you were saying we were enlightened in the past not present.
"Wonder how much of that increased mfg is export related? "
It's not increasing, it's DECREASING, just at a slower rate. CNBC must have confused you
Imagine a plane in a steep dive, rapidly approaching the earth at a rate of, say 2000 feet per minute. As the plane nears impact, the pilot finally manages to pull the nose up a bit. The descent rate slows to 1500 feet per minute.
Meanwhile, the stuff on the ground is still getting bigger at an alarming pace.
And apparently there is a terrorist in the back of the plane with a "debt bomb," whatever that is, who is threatening to blow up the plane if the pilot manages to level it out before impact.
"meet some of our satisfied clients..."
Legg Mason Falls After Investors Withdraw $44 Billion
Legg Mason Falls After Investors Withdraw $44 Billion (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Chrysler HQ Designed To Convert Into Shopping Mall
Chrysler HQ Designed To Convert Into Shopping Mall - Chrysler - Jalopnik
I thought this was a pretty good summation of the Fed's actions in the credit market, and why the indicators we're seeing have held up so nicely. Very good read.
Zero Hedge: Of Fingers And Dikes
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/5/2009 - 4:29 pm
Wow I was refreshing my market charts, and the DOW had dropped in a straight line off a cliff. Refreshed and it is gone now. Was very weird, probably a software glitch, anyone else see this?
Do your mashed potatoes look like Devil's Tower?
Wow, Chrysler creditors received death threats, according to Lauria's testimony. Seriously, your government is actually being run by mobsters.
Zero Hedge: For Now, Judge Gonzalez Siding With Chrysler Creditors
Detnews.com | This article is no longer available online | detnews.com | The Detroit News
Vonbeck777
Must have been a glitch
Here's the kind of creativity that will produce real economic growth...
Targeting Tumors Using Tiny Gold Particles
This web site is a great daily read - all kinds of good science info here and a huge archive of older articles which are news to me...
Sterlin
They were all from Rohm Emanuel.
Man I love that movie. So glad Spielberg hasn't pulled a Lucas and tried to remake it with a happy ending. HAN SHOT FIRST! Seems the good director thinks a man driving his family away as he chases blinking lights in the sky is no longer a good message to send. I almost choked when I read that. It is amazing how we all change our perspectives as we age.
Vonbeck Close encounters????
I get the distinct feeling that Bernanke and Geithner have "gone all in". If they get called it isn't going to be pretty. But so far so good.
Re Chrysler death threats - Does that confirm anyone's suspicion that the UAW is connected to the mob?
Yes, in reference to not one cent's mashed potatoes look like Devil's Tower
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 5/5/2009 - 4:46 pm
They were all from Rohm Emanuel.
Is that a Freudian slip to conflate him with Ernst Rohm?
GH
Geithner has so far been worse than Paulson in regards to bailing out the people who got us here. That is a scary thought but it is so far true
Not one sent
Sorry my computer fixes the type to what it thinks I am writing have to turn that off.
shorts still scrambling on earnings. yesterday, i posted TXRH (texas roadhouse). today, it's gonna be EA Sports.
ac, liked your post. I would argue that we were not 'enlightened' but barbaric. The very aspects you mention as strengths are traits not tolerated by highly advanced societies. That is why I think we have become too civilized. We don't have a direction because we look through everyone's eyes and see all directions. The world isn't flat to us anymore. I am a romantic, I like the barbarian more than the civilized man. How I wish Robert Howard had written more. edit just reread, and realized I misunderstood your use on enlightened. sorry about that. I thought you were saying we were enlightened in the past not present.
The conclusion I have come to is that the most fundamental problem facing societies is that socially productive behaviors on the part of the individual are often irrational from the individual perspective. I.E. a purely rational person that goes around making decisions purely based on what's in their best interest is basically a sociopath.
We actually see this in animals besides humans - animals that tend to form social groups also tend to exhibit "irrational" behaviors (like endangering themselves to save other animals). There seems to be actual selection pressures that generate these types of behaviors.
The problem with all this is that it seems to suggest that the sort of behaviors or thinking that forms social structures may not proceed in any direct way from things like knowledge or education.
You can see a great example of that right now:
The smartest, most educated people in the world are on Wall Street right now and what have they used all that intelligence and education for? To commit one of the greatest crimes in history.
Something is wrong.
Recovery - Built entirely on a mountain of unprecedented USG interference. Just shifting the entire burden onto the lap of the US taxpayer, even without his/her expressed consent.
When the 10yr cracks the poorly engineered recovery will be OVER.
Gavshire really good link... pasted a good paragraph..
Maybe more than any other headline credit market indicator of the moment Fed actions have distorted what used to be the prior “risk based” message of LIBOR. And that cuts right to the conceptual heart of government intervention. Just how the heck can the private sector assess risk and allocate capital correctly and efficiently when the Fed/Treasury/Administration is acting to help “misprice” assets and risk measures? There will be no true recovery in the economy and capital markets until risk is being priced appropriately and all risks are known (the issue of transparency). Make no mistake about it; the decline in LIBOR is not a result of credit market healing and the lessening of risk perceptions. It’s a result of the Fed TAF. And so once again, how do they step away from this intervention?
Dirk, check your text. I think you need some more italics on Ben's remarks. Good analysis.
In Godwin we trust...
In a similar fashion, but with a far different outcome, the atrocities that were suspected, but never confirmed-will be, after the collapse.
50 millions deaths then,
vs.
$50 trillion debts now.
I propose that anyone who says bulldozing new houses is good because it stabilizes prices be publicly humiliated (virtually) for the rest of his career.
Hopefully the SEC can change the short-selling rules soon and take us over 1100 on the S&P.
"mountain of unprecedented USG interference"
Does anyone really believe the rally is genuine?
GH,
Thanks for the link. Good reading.
--bh
ac, I almost got stoned in high school (very religious town) because I said the real heart of Jesus' message was to be selfish not selfless. The reason I believe this is that if you use logic to apply to Do unto Others... the most selfish person in the world would make sure his neighbors needs were met in order to enjoy his own. Equality of the masses would ensure you always had your own apple pie. Didn't go over well. I have always been going upstream when the rest of the fishes were going down. If we would just admit we were selfish creatures and get over ourselves, the magicians on wall st. wouldn't believe they were gods and sit on top of those ivory towers. Every once in a while they really believe they can fly don't they?
The Victorville house bulldozing finally made it to the Wall St. Journal today - the WSJ story says those houses had been taken over by squatters and vandals so they were not the brand new models but heavily trashed - that explains the code violations .... Even though it looks like typical American waste, I think in these circumstances if I was the bank I'd probably flatten them too.....
Bearly,
The American people elected the Congress that approved part of the bailout, but, unfortunately, the previous President who appointed the Fed Chairman was not elected by the American people; so you're only partially corrct.
An awful lot of the high desert is 5150 meth odd actors.
Ben sees green shoots sprout
Lush green shoots growing everywhere
Like bones at Shiloh
Interesting spx chart
Today's Stock Trends, Charts, and Market Analyses used by Money Managers and Individual Investors in...
traderwalt,
Congresspersons are not really elected. They are marketed and sold to the public, like detergent or the trash on home shopping networks, using special interest money for the ad campaign.
That is why we have so many problems. Those elected do not truly have the interests of the electorate at heart. (with a few notable, chrerished, exceptions -- who are more or less powerless in terms of arresting the damaging actions of their peers).
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/5/2009 - 10:00 am reply Ignore user
I propose that anyone who says bulldozing new houses is good because it stabilizes prices be publicly humiliated (virtually) for the rest of his career.
Agreed but bulldozing houses is good because it is a market response and acknowledges true pricing.
How long before we go from "these houses aren't worth the sticks they're built with" to "these 10yr notes aren't worth the paper they're printed on?"
There is still plenty of time to sell in May... and this might be a really good time to do it too.... Jeff Macke said he shorted the sp500 yesterday....
Just in case you missed it, here is some good news for all the bankers.
Wall Street Firms Will Revert to Pre-Crisis Model, Cohen Says - Bloomberg.com
the most selfish person in the world would make sure his neighbors needs were met in order to enjoy his own. Equality of the masses would ensure you always had your own apple pie. Didn't go over well. I have always been going upstream when the rest of the fishes were going down.
I have always felt that the major, common directives from the great religions all have to do with ensuring that as many people as possible lead a safe and healthy and secure life, and so do their children. A healthy life takes good neighbors on the same wavelength for help in time of trouble, a community that can come together and pool resources to solve the problems that affect everyone as individuals.
To do this takes sacrifices from everyone; to not do this -- well, you could end up with a nice house and two kids and two SUVs living in the middle of a dying housing tract half inhabited by bandos.... and oh yeah, your health insurer has decided to stop covering special treatments for your child's chronic medical condition, and, and, and...
Rob Dawg,
My mistake. Thanks for the correction.
the most selfish person in the world would make sure his neighbors needs were met in order to enjoy his own
The problem is the benefits of a lot of "social" productive behaviors are asymmetric payouts. Mancur Olson talks extensively about this sort of stuff and makes some pretty good arguments. In terms of contributing to a community, for example, the benefits of an individual not contributing and getting a "free ride" from the contributions of the others creates an incentive to do so. The cost to the community of making sure each last individual contributes may not be justifiable simply because a couple of individuals in a community of thousands doesn't warrant the effort.. In other words you get a lot of situations where it "pays" to take advantage of the situation and be socially parasitic.
A rational person should do just that.
"The smartest, most educated people in the world are on Wall Street right now "
Are they really? Or just a bunch of ivy league brats with initials III in their names, the third base assholes. Real smart ones go to CERN...
Bob that is why the little gated upper middle class communities that have sprouted up all over the place bother me so much. First it is paranoia, but second I mean does anyone study Rome anymore, what happened to those wealthy citizens that moved out to their country estates with private guards and gated vineyards.... they were some of the first to fall to the scouting parties from up north. It is all false security. Together we stand, divided we fall when the mighty Canadian hordes descend upon us, that simple.
Victorville house demolitions on CNBS now.
How come Ron Paul didn't ask Bernanke what he expects to do with all that 4.5% GSE paper when the 30yr hits 8% ? Maybe Benrnanke will say the 30yr will never hit 30% because before it gets there he'll buy it all the way back down ?
This God-of-Economics-and-Finance behavior of the Fed is MAX hubris. We'll see how it turns out.
"S&P puts 23 financial firms on negative watch"http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/050609dnbusbankscredit.1fbb537f.html
S&P puts 23 financial firms on negative watch |
News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News
| Dallas Business News
bearly ten year creeping a little higher today
dum luk that story came out in the middle of the day yesterday.
I have always felt that the major, common directives from the great religions all have to do with ensuring that as many people as possible lead a safe and healthy and secure life, and so do their children.
I think what is key with religions and belief systems that attempt to provide social benefits is that they in effect attempt to create government through internal rather than external mechanisms.
Because of the things I see happening recently I spend more time wondering if what's important is not whether certain beliefs are valid, but whether the lead to socially healthy outcomes.
You know, maybe I don't believe in the specifics of certain religions or ideologies, but if they obviate the need for the Gestapo 2.0 then perhaps I can concede that they have some merit.
Surest indicator I see that this rally is getting a bit shaky...
SEC chief says new short-selling rules a priority
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Rob Dawg,
Thanks again for your follow up yesterday regarding the origin of custom-fitted headware fashioned from refined bauxite.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote 10:10 am
Just in case you missed it, here is some good news for all the bankers.
(link)
just incredible...they have not learned a F^(&ing thing
from the article
" May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street, after getting billions of taxpayer dollars, will emerge from the financial crisis looking much the same as before markets collapsed, said H. Rodgin Cohen, chairman of law firm Sullivan & Cromwell LLP.
“The system will look more like what preceded the current environment than many people seem to believe,” Cohen said yesterday at a panel discussion on the future of Wall Street sponsored by Bloomberg News in New York. “I am far from convinced there was something inherently wrong with the system.” "
effemol
Tim waiting,
If so, I didn't see it yesterday and it bears todays date.
In other words you get a lot of situations where it "pays" to take advantage of the situation and be socially parasitic.
A rational person should do just that.
=====
wall street
ac, agreed. I have a lot of pent up issues with Christianity, but I still see that it can do some 'good' for society. The very early churches, and I mean before Emperor Constantine, were communes that tried to teach people how to live as a brotherhood. Of course we tried to do this in the 60s even bringing back the very bad hygiene but I have no problem with people getting together trying to live better lives. Problem is that after Paul, the fundamental message of Christianity changed in my opinion, and not for the better. In the end, religion is a tool to condition people and like all tools can be used wisely or unwisely.
I've been following forecloses, short sales and REOs in several areas of FL. The inventory is way, way up yoy and nothing is moving. Even the units where prices have been lowered by 2/3 aren't selling.
FL is a total bloodbath. I was in Phoenix and Scottsdale a few weeks ago. Another bloodbath. I don't think we are anywhere near the half way point on the actual foreclosures. And I seriously doubt the banks or the stress tests are modeling the numbers correctly. The system has too many built in biases.
Still going with my gut.
I hope to glod they pass the uptick rule.
That way all the shorts who are holding this market up will finally stay out and we can have our capitulation.
Only then will I have a decent starting point to go long.
The stock mkt will no doubt go thru the roof.
I have refused to peak.
Getting a couple more deals in, in the sweet spot.
Over 400k? fagedaboutit.
This is in line with what I am seeing in the stores - prices going up. And in nice 15-20% increments.
Kraft Profit Rises on Price Increases, Cost Cuts
Kraft Profit Rises on Price Increases, Cost Cuts (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Molson Coors profit surges on price hikes, savings
Molson Coors profit surges on price hikes, savings - MarketWatch
At time in history, relgion HAS BEEN gestapo 2.0. See inquisition.
Too weak at present.
Bob Dobbs
"I have always felt that the major, common directives from the great religions all have to do with ensuring that as many people as possible lead a safe and healthy and secure life, and so do their children."
yeah all that and....KONTROL.. of the masses with a form of super nationalism
C&C,
I probably missed previous posts from you where you explained your disdain for the uber-bear viewpoint. Now I just see smug posts about how right you were/are, without much explanation of why you feel that way. Don't get me wrong, I very much respect your opinion, but I want to know what it's based upon. So, just so I know where you're coming from...
"Agreed but bulldozing houses is good because it is a market response and acknowledges true pricing. "
10 restaurants open and close in a month at the same location. Each opening involves transaction, advertising, and remodeling costs. Each decision to rip out the old interior is an intelligent 'market response', because the old didn't sell.
A soup kitchen wants to run a non-profit pay what you can operation on the site. But the bank keeps looking for restaurateurs so they can pay bonuses a little longer before unloading their liabilities on the FDIC/taxpayer.
I think Spielberg had a close encounter of the "Fourth kind"...the kind you have with Bernie Madoff.
Not too weak at present at all. Just look at the enlightened religions and cults we have now and how tolerant they are...the "greens", "organic food cultists" professing eternal life through chemistry, etc. There are plenty of religions that are faddish now. Let's all go now and celebrate diversity.
I am "green". It is not a religion. I care about the future environment. I am tolerant. Which is yours, the one true religion?
Over on The Economic Populist, New Deal Democrat wrote a fairly lengthy analysis on how the manufacturing index is a major economic indicator of the recession bottom. Manufacturing is the orphan child, so this piece is worth a read. NAPM's Manufacturing Index suggests Recession bottom near