ot anecdotes --
went to my home depot today and peeked at the weekly sales. a couple of weeks ago the store was at about low-$700k/week, last week they were over 800k. this isn't all seasonality either because some dept comps were positive yoy.
an acquaintance of mine had her hours cut in half. she works in marketing at an architectural firm. several others had their hours cut also. all employees at the firm got an email that informed them that if the one big job that they were working on fell through they would all get laid off. my friend says the job is a "pipe dream."
i found out yesterday that my credit score went up this week to 809. i was so excited that i couldn't sleep last night.
Nouriel Rubini in WSJ We Can't Subsidize the Banks Forever The results of the government's stress tests on banks, to be released in a few days, will not mark the beginning of the end of the financial crisis. If we are to believe the leaks, the results will show that there might be a few problems at some of the regional banks and Citigroup and Bank of America may need some more capital if things get worse. But the overall message is that the sector is in pretty good shape.
This would be good news if it were credible. But the International Monetary Fund has just released a study of estimated losses on U.S. loans and securities. It was very bleak -- $2.7 trillion, double the estimated losses of six months ago. Our estimates at RGE Monitor are even higher, at $3.6 trillion, implying that the financial system is currently near insolvency in the aggregate. With the U.S. banks and broker-dealers accounting for more than half these losses there is a huge disconnect between these estimated losses and the regulators' conclusions
...
the government should stop providing capital, loan guarantees and financing with no strings attached. Banks should understand this. When providing loans to troubled companies, they place numerous restrictions, called covenants, on what these firms can do. These covenants generally restrict the use of assets, risk-taking behavior, and future indebtedness. It would be much better if the government focused on this rather than on its headline obsession with bonuses.
Mrs. Ghostface works for an enterprise software firm, she says activity is still DEAD, has been since 1/1/09. Very, very little activity, most businesses are holding onto their cash.
In my line of work, all I see is the Fed pumping up refinances by buying up every MBS in sight, and some knife-catchers responding to the $8K tax break being flashed before their eyes. And, a flood of new foreclosures coming down the pipe since the moratoriums were lifted.
The govt will soon need another story to spin to sustain the current level of optimism; repeating "the economy is stabilising" isn't going to last another two months, once people start asking "stabilizing to what level?"
Well screwing up forecasts is NOT juts an AMERICAN trait....
From.... MISH
Euro-Zone Jobless To Hit Postwar Record
Fessing up to reality, the European Union says euro-zone jobless to hit postwar record.
Deepening the economic gloom in Europe, the European Union admitted Monday that its previous forecasts were way off the mark. It now predicts "a deep and widespread recession" across the continent and says unemployment among nations using the euro currency will rise to a postwar record of 11.5 percent in 2010.
The new forecasts expect the economies of the 27-nation EU and the 16-nation euro-zone to shrink by 4 percent this year -- more than double a January estimate.
The EU now reckons that Germany will contract by a massive 5.4 percent this year as global demand dries up for the high-value goods such as cars and machinery that the country makes and exports. In January, the EU thought Germany would only shrink 2.3 percent this year.
The European Commission said more than 26 million people in the EU will be out of work next year as a contracting economy sheds an extra 8.5 million jobs -- putting pressure on governments and central bankers to do more to alleviate the downturn.
Just four months ago, the EU thought the EU economy would only contract 1.8 percent and the euro-zone only sink 1.9 percent this year.
two of my graduating buddies put their houses for sale last week, both sub $200K. both sold today. the low end is really picking up. combination of FHA, low interest rates, and the $8K credit.
uh, we've been subsidizing them since the Great Depression... or course not the same scale
... and not that explicitly. It is one thing to lower the interest rate, which affects savings in banks. It is another thing to channel hundreds of billions of dollars to banks, while claiming that social programs and universal health care are too expensive.
Reptilian's link: "Back then, as now, the members of the Fed were well aware of the harmful effects of inflation. In private, they vowed not to let it get out of hand and several times even started to do something about it. "
Keynes was aware that policymakers were misusing his theories but he said he would step in if they went too far--and then he died.
I took a long walk around Austin today. They look to have a surplus of condos, CRE, and bars. The hotel district is about 6 blocks from anything. Got a lot of those too. Food and music is good and rush hour downtown is, well, rather unrushed. I thought it was Sunday morning. They don't seem to have eaten the rotten fruit of retail megaplexes and same old same old. At least downtown. They do have a lot of bars. Sure do not have any drug stores or small grocerys tho.
mock turtle (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/5/2009 - 4:16 am
Not One Cent
exactly right
and as the king said to the hatter
"dont be nervous or ill have you executed on the spot!"
so it is settled
japan AND zimbabwe we shall be
I heard we can do both because we are the world's only superpower, so laws and math do not apply.
I always thought the Red Queen said "Off with her head."
To follow up on the traffic stories from the last thread [I seem to be one behind], the traffic on the L.A. to Las Vegas/Colorado River route (sometimes called I-15) has definitely picked up the last two weekends. The dead zone was the weekend before April 15th and no surprise there. Since then I've seen lots of jacked pickups guaranteed to get 10 mpg hauling dirt bikes up the road.
Trucking has been constant for company drivers. Don't know about the independents, but I suspect they're suffering.
Could be seasonality. Could be one of those green things.
why does everyone expect another massive leg down? The economy tanked... We should be able to bounce along the bottom rather than falling off another cliff.
during our prof. responsibility class earlier this semester, the professor asked us for lawyer jokes. Maybe about 1% were actually specific to lawyers; those are funny. It dawned on me that the other 99% were "jokes" that i heard while growing up in the South, but not about lawyers...
Dryfly, I saw your comments about I-80 being jammed with trucks in the last thread. I had recently read somewhere that US Steel and one of the other big names have been consolidating national production in NW Indiana recently. We any of those trucks carrying steel?
I was in NW Indiana this past weekend and meant to meet up with an old friend that went to work in the mills right after high school and is still there. Was going to ask him about how the industry was doing from an insiders perspective. Didn't get a chance to catch up with him unfortunately.
I played a 55-y-I guy that just sold his $1.4m house for $950k, said activity picked up a few weeks ago after he dropped it $50k. My waitress is either drunk or dead tired, forgot my menu, my drink and left Japanese businessmans change on the counter by me. There are seven customers and only one looks Asian and it's not me.
My divorce would be proof of that. We cashed out at the top after doubling our money in 2005. I doubled it again in PM only to have her run off with the credit cards when I wouldn't buy her an even bigger house. The, now ex-wife, just bought a house a few weeks ago. She's her daddy's problem now...
Dryfly, I saw your comments about I-80 being jammed with trucks in the last thread. I had recently read somewhere that US Steel and one of the other big names have been consolidating national production in NW Indiana recently. We any of those trucks carrying steel?
Some were for sure [the big donut rolls]. A lot weren't. It was just weird having been there a week earlier & it was deserted.
Basel Too, I've got an original one for you (though I did tell it once on this board) and it's actually a true story.
First a little background. I live in the sticks. In 1983 I fled the L.A. office and 100+ hour workweeks at a firm whose name you might have heard for the peace and quiet of nowhereville. I got to represent real people with real problems rather than . . . (well, the other kind of client). There were 8 or 10 lawyers in the rather large geographical area and a courthouse with courtrooms 1 and 2.
Over a beer with an old geezer (in his office) he told me about a local lawyer who literally was the first lawyer to move to the area. He later became a Justice Court Judge (as in, you know, Roy Bean, a position that no longer exists in the State). The old geezer was the second one in the area. He told me the first one said to him one day "I am so glad you moved here. I had nothing to do. I was literally starving." The geezer (now deceased) then said to me: "So after that we both got rich."
If I had a lower-end house I would be trying to sell now for sure, everything that could be going in your favor in this economy is hitting right now: a dearth of foreclosure supply due to the moratoriums, spring selling season, federal and state first time homebuyer credits, record low mortgage rates, the FHA is still solvent. This is as good a selling market as it is going to be for the next year at least.
I think the next big blowup is the FHA, they have got to be sitting on a ton of losses that they haven't owned up to (if the servicer numbers I see are any indication), but when the taxpayer sees the cost of that bailout, there is going to be pressure to cut back on their guidelines.
He was speaking Japanese on his cell, although he might have been Korean. That's true about women and houses, I discovered myself in post-divorce dating.
Can the Fed thread the needle? Can they jump start the economy while keeping interest rates in check and in so doing, push asset prices up to the point where Banks losses are manageable?
One problem (of many) is the banks themselves! They want to give back the TARP to be free of govt interference and want to hold onto their toxic assets (now that they don't have to MTM) to benefit from govt re-inflating asset prices.
The option characteristics of the toxic assets (green shoots resulting in magnified gains) could make such a strategy very lucrative for the strongest and most savvy banks. The weakest must eat TARP and sell assets to PPIPs and otherwise toe the govt line.
Good bank/bad bank?! Good bank: must rid itself of bad assets and make loans / Bad bank: capital strength allows them to buy/hold/invest in toxic assets.
Why would a bank want to be a BAD Bank instead of a GOOD Bank? Look for BAD Banks to trade up the price of toxic assets so that they can sell them back to GOOD Banks (TARP/Govt Funded/Govt controlled) at inflated prices. PUMP and DUMP on a grand scale.
Funny... Was watching the fight with a group of "friends" on Sat. One of the guys convinced all of the others that local home prices will rebound by the end of summer. I ,being the only renter, inquired about his reasoning... "It just feels like the bottom to me" and " there are so many good deals now"
They weren't happy when I gave them the facts e.g. local market(OC beach community) has a record number of listings, sales rate puts supply at 2.5 years, lenders are requiring 25 percent for non conforming jumbos, etc.
Not Irving Fisher Said:
One of the guys convinced all of the others that local home prices will rebound by the end of summer. I ,being the only renter, inquired about his reasoning... "It just feels like the bottom to me" and " there are so many good deals now"
I'm sure we all know 3 or 4 people like this. Younger guy I know is looking to buy and seems like he's just going on price. Going on price will get you locked into a neighborhood you don't like. He seems to think now is the time to buy since inflation will hit and will end up screwing whoever is lending you the money. Another older guy I know is trying to buy a 2nd home in the same neighborhood. He just feels like its time to buy another home or something... I don't get it.
That $950k house was a divorce sale, on the market for almost a year.
Waitress is cute enough, probably 2nd gen chinese, stocky, broad face, native English.
No more marriage for me.
Once is Enough, although I'm amused that sexy GF just called to have me pick up groceries.
Later.
Funny stuff from Congress re: Credit Card Bill of Rights (reading Congressional Record Extension of Remarks)
Mr. Chair, college students are particularly vulnerable to credit card targeting and marketing. As they walk through campus, they come across offers ranging from free food to clothing just for filling out a credit card application. But after the free gifts, too many students are left with piles of debt and nowhere to turn. For too long, credit card companies have had special deals with universities to let them market to students. Through these deals, schools receive large cash payments in exchange for handing over students' personal information and providing access to their campuses. Right now, with their families at home struggling, more students are turning to credit cards to fill the gap between their tuition bill and student loans. As a result they are racking up debts that take years to pay off. A Sallie Mae study recently reported that college seniors are graduating from school with an average of more than $4,100 in credit card debt.
In these tough economic times, more individuals and businesses are turning to credit cards to pay for basic necessities than ever before. In the U.S. credit card debt has reached nearly $1 trillion, with the average American's credit card debt reaching nearly $10,000 in 2007. While Americans are struggling to make ends meet and making decisions about which bills to pay and which medications and other necessities they can go without, credit card issuers are making record profits; over $19 billion in late fees, over-limit charges and other penalties.
Certainly Congress must realize the hypocrisy of passing this bill the same time they destroy America with their large deficits!
Another random thing I found re: Florida Safety Belt Law I would like to take a moment to recognize the Florida Legislature for passing the Dori Slosberg and Katie Marchetti Safety Belt Law yesterday, a law giving police the power to stop motorists for not wearing seat belts. I believe this law is a great step forward in the effort to reduce the numbers of tragic deaths and injuries throughout Florida and should serve as an example for other state governments to follow in ensuring all Americans are safer on our roads.
If you really want to make people safe how about some automobile automation! Re-cock-u-lous!
A company called Bright Automotive is introducing a vehicle targeted at corporate fleets called the IDEA. According to their site, it’s a “100-mpg plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) fleet vehicle”. It has a funky shape that is aerodynamically efficient, and the site says that “The IDEA will save a 250-vehicle fleet company more than $500,000 per year”. It works by “battery power for the first 30 miles, using little or no gasoline and less than $1 of electricity. After this, it functions like other hybrids. As an example of fuel efficiency, for customers with a 50-mile daily urban route, the IDEA uses about half a gallon of gasoline, which is like getting 100 mpg. For drivers with a 70-mile daily route, one gallon is used, similar to 70 mpg.”
The route distances seem right for delivery vehicles in urban areas; a FedEx truck with a route including a large office complex would probably fit this description perfectly. It seems that a re-fragmentation of the motor vehicle industry may be in the works, with manufacturers focused on specific market applications.
Basel, I may have to watch the game Wednesday though the odds would seem to favor a Lakers blowout. I'm curious if Battier can defend Kobe that well or if he did have a touch of the flu. Yao, however, is a pro all the way through and it may be his time to shine.
Yes, I did my 20 years and that ended. It's one of the reasons I saluted Hoopajoops for realizing that so early in the process.
You'd think they were talking about massive student loans for useless degrees.
What about the massive student loans for useful degrees? Chinese and Indian engineers don't leave school with $80k in debt immediately. Competitive disadvantage comes in many forms other than wages.
I grew up in Colorado beef country (i.e., feed lot city) in the '70s. The kids I knew whose family was "in the business" said that McD's was their absolute toughest client (albeit a good and fair one). You did what they told you too or you didn't do business with them. Very high standards.
I am placing my bet on the FHA being the first to go down (i.e. ask for a huge cash infusion from the government), before the PBGC and FDIC. The devil I know...
As long as we're talking sports - the Dodgers are one left arm in the pen away from being the best Dodger team of all time.
Very interested to see how they match up against the Cards, in both the regular and postseason. No one in the AL will offer a challenge if they keep playing at this level.
I wouldn't bet against you. I fully expect FHA to follow the GSE path, becoming yet another black hole for taxpayer money.
Anyone that thinks the Fed will ever be able to unwind it's holdings is smoking crack, meth & hash simultaneously. Besides the ever-soaring federal deficits you have the backstopping of the banks, AIG, GSEs, FHA, FDIC, PBGC, FHLB, etc. None of these institutions can survive without ongoing transfusions of mountains of cash, yet what's the alternative? Let the banks, AIG, FDIC and/or FHLB fail and perhaps they have their systemic banking failure. Let the GSEs and/or FHA go and the real estate market collapses overnight, again taking the banking system down with it. Let PBGC fail? Might as well immediately write off SS & Medicare as well.
oh yeah!
..
And yes, that really is Professor Taylor!
Pretty cool.
NW - LOL!
i totally don't deserve that. very exciting though. my second first!
uh-oh: Inflation Nation
2 of my 3 posts got eaten by the comment post monster
Thats weird I saw them but they are gone now... hummm...
That's the 10 million $ question. Been debated here ad nauseum.
Can Merle fill one of the open Treasury posts?
NorkaWest, sorry, I deleted a couple because I thought they were duplicates.
best wishes
japan or Zimbabwe?
yes!
If anyone can complain about capitalism its these guys.... BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Communism on rise in recession-hit Japan
It was morse code CR, jeezzz...
The Financial Commentator on the Economy - John Mauldin's Outside the Box - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.
nades, sorry - I goofed.
I'm just being a wise ass!
Cheers!
I really feel sorry for Volcker. All that hard work he put in in the early 80s, all thrown out the window by Zimbabwe Ben.
ot anecdotes --
went to my home depot today and peeked at the weekly sales. a couple of weeks ago the store was at about low-$700k/week, last week they were over 800k. this isn't all seasonality either because some dept comps were positive yoy.
an acquaintance of mine had her hours cut in half. she works in marketing at an architectural firm. several others had their hours cut also. all employees at the firm got an email that informed them that if the one big job that they were working on fell through they would all get laid off. my friend says the job is a "pipe dream."
i found out yesterday that my credit score went up this week to 809. i was so excited that i couldn't sleep last night.
CalculatedRisk (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 8:30 pm
NorkaWest, sorry, I deleted a couple because I thought they were duplicates.
best wishes
Bbbbutt
I was having a wonderful Boy Scouts flashback.
Half way to a Merit Badge in semifor..
It's harshed my mellow...
I guess I'll recover ...
someday.
Thanks CR - I love Merle.
i like merl hazard
but , i love sub prime
YouTube - I Love Subprime
(note CR posted this more than a year ago...i still play it for friends
note, the lyrics get sung at about 1:33...dont miss it!
Nouriel Rubini in WSJ
We Can't Subsidize the Banks Forever
The results of the government's stress tests on banks, to be released in a few days, will not mark the beginning of the end of the financial crisis. If we are to believe the leaks, the results will show that there might be a few problems at some of the regional banks and Citigroup and Bank of America may need some more capital if things get worse. But the overall message is that the sector is in pretty good shape.
This would be good news if it were credible. But the International Monetary Fund has just released a study of estimated losses on U.S. loans and securities. It was very bleak -- $2.7 trillion, double the estimated losses of six months ago. Our estimates at RGE Monitor are even higher, at $3.6 trillion, implying that the financial system is currently near insolvency in the aggregate. With the U.S. banks and broker-dealers accounting for more than half these losses there is a huge disconnect between these estimated losses and the regulators' conclusions
...
the government should stop providing capital, loan guarantees and financing with no strings attached. Banks should understand this. When providing loans to troubled companies, they place numerous restrictions, called covenants, on what these firms can do. These covenants generally restrict the use of assets, risk-taking behavior, and future indebtedness. It would be much better if the government focused on this rather than on its headline obsession with bonuses.
"Benjamin Dover"
japan or Zimbabwe?
yes!
Exactly!
"ot anecdotes --"
Mrs. Ghostface works for an enterprise software firm, she says activity is still DEAD, has been since 1/1/09. Very, very little activity, most businesses are holding onto their cash.
In my line of work, all I see is the Fed pumping up refinances by buying up every MBS in sight, and some knife-catchers responding to the $8K tax break being flashed before their eyes. And, a flood of new foreclosures coming down the pipe since the moratoriums were lifted.
The govt will soon need another story to spin to sustain the current level of optimism; repeating "the economy is stabilising" isn't going to last another two months, once people start asking "stabilizing to what level?"
Well screwing up forecasts is NOT juts an AMERICAN trait....
From.... MISH
Euro-Zone Jobless To Hit Postwar Record
Fessing up to reality, the European Union says euro-zone jobless to hit postwar record.
Deepening the economic gloom in Europe, the European Union admitted Monday that its previous forecasts were way off the mark. It now predicts "a deep and widespread recession" across the continent and says unemployment among nations using the euro currency will rise to a postwar record of 11.5 percent in 2010.
The new forecasts expect the economies of the 27-nation EU and the 16-nation euro-zone to shrink by 4 percent this year -- more than double a January estimate.
The EU now reckons that Germany will contract by a massive 5.4 percent this year as global demand dries up for the high-value goods such as cars and machinery that the country makes and exports. In January, the EU thought Germany would only shrink 2.3 percent this year.
The European Commission said more than 26 million people in the EU will be out of work next year as a contracting economy sheds an extra 8.5 million jobs -- putting pressure on governments and central bankers to do more to alleviate the downturn.
Just four months ago, the EU thought the EU economy would only contract 1.8 percent and the euro-zone only sink 1.9 percent this year.
We Can't Subsidize the Banks Forever
uh, we've been subsidizing them since the Great Depression... or course not the same scale
BTW, came across this story the other day, guess who the lending bank is?
Business & Technology | Snohomish developer's Las Vegas gamble | Seattle Times Newspaper
japan or Zimbabwe?
yes!
Exactly!
I'd LOL if I wasn't crying so hard...
two of my graduating buddies put their houses for sale last week, both sub $200K. both sold today. the low end is really picking up. combination of FHA, low interest rates, and the $8K credit.
mmmmm Organized Crime.....
We Can't Subsidize the Banks Forever
uh, we've been subsidizing them since the Great Depression... or course not the same scale
... and not that explicitly. It is one thing to lower the interest rate, which affects savings in banks. It is another thing to channel hundreds of billions of dollars to banks, while claiming that social programs and universal health care are too expensive.
G'night, all
japan OR zimbabwe
why OR ??
cant we be japan AND zimbababwe?
me stupid
Condos for everyone and a preview of BFF....
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: How Banks Become Condo Rental Agents
Reptilian's link: "Back then, as now, the members of the Fed were well aware of the harmful effects of inflation. In private, they vowed not to let it get out of hand and several times even started to do something about it. "
Keynes was aware that policymakers were misusing his theories but he said he would step in if they went too far--and then he died.
mock turtle (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/5/2009 - 4:04 am
reply Ignore user
japan OR zimbabwe
why OR ??
cant we be japan AND zimbababwe?
me stupid
The Red Queen tells Alice, "Yes. we can!"
Basel Too
How much did they pay for them?
Watching a little Yankees/Red Sox. Damn theres a lot of empty seats!!!!!
they made between 10-20% from 2006 purchasing prices.
seems like the sox yanks play every week....
Basel
After taxes, fees and commissions I say they lost money. All well get out while you can
BTW graduating from what? About How are are you?
Not One Cent
exactly right
and as the king said to the hatter
"dont be nervous or ill have you executed on the spot!"
so it is settled
japan AND zimbabwe we shall be
law school. 29
Does Merle Haggard do interviews?
I took a long walk around Austin today. They look to have a surplus of condos, CRE, and bars. The hotel district is about 6 blocks from anything. Got a lot of those too. Food and music is good and rush hour downtown is, well, rather unrushed. I thought it was Sunday morning. They don't seem to have eaten the rotten fruit of retail megaplexes and same old same old. At least downtown. They do have a lot of bars. Sure do not have any drug stores or small grocerys tho.
.
mock turtle (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/5/2009 - 4:16 am
Not One Cent
exactly right
and as the king said to the hatter
"dont be nervous or ill have you executed on the spot!"
so it is settled
japan AND zimbabwe we shall be
I heard we can do both because we are the world's only superpower, so laws and math do not apply.
Ah I see. I did know of a kid 22 who bought a million dollar house in Vallejo at the peak. OUCH. He was into the Internets and in the facebook.
I always thought the Red Queen said "Off with her head."
To follow up on the traffic stories from the last thread [I seem to be one behind], the traffic on the L.A. to Las Vegas/Colorado River route (sometimes called I-15) has definitely picked up the last two weekends. The dead zone was the weekend before April 15th and no surprise there. Since then I've seen lots of jacked pickups guaranteed to get 10 mpg hauling dirt bikes up the road.
Trucking has been constant for company drivers. Don't know about the independents, but I suspect they're suffering.
Could be seasonality. Could be one of those green things.
Basel Too, I'm trying to come up with one of dem dare lawyer jokes, but . . . what can I say?
why does everyone expect another massive leg down? The economy tanked... We should be able to bounce along the bottom rather than falling off another cliff.
"After taxes, fees and commissions I say they lost money"
Add a bit of inflation, but subtract what they would have paid in rent.
why does everyone expect another massive leg down?
Because we like disaster movies and not documenteries?
We should be able to bounce along the bottom rather than falling off another cliff.
I think you're assuming we've hit the bottom. Not everyone here would agree.
sportsfan:
during our prof. responsibility class earlier this semester, the professor asked us for lawyer jokes. Maybe about 1% were actually specific to lawyers; those are funny. It dawned on me that the other 99% were "jokes" that i heard while growing up in the South, but not about lawyers...
What is more interesting?
Today the comet Citibank flamed through the atomsphere and slammed into North America taking down the life savings of 1022000 people?
Or
Well, today the first bank of Red Rash shut its doors. The government reported a 2M loss?
After taxes, fees and commissions I say they lost money
I'm probably being sexist, but home ownership to most females has near infinite value.
Basel
I could imagine the content...
I guess that really depends on which potential bottom we are discussing.
Housing and employment have a ways to go.
......how about Chrysler joke.....Chrysler Forecasts Profit -- In 2012 .......
Chrysler Forecasts Profit -- In 2012 - WSJ.com
Dryfly, I saw your comments about I-80 being jammed with trucks in the last thread. I had recently read somewhere that US Steel and one of the other big names have been consolidating national production in NW Indiana recently. We any of those trucks carrying steel?
I was in NW Indiana this past weekend and meant to meet up with an old friend that went to work in the mills right after high school and is still there. Was going to ask him about how the industry was doing from an insiders perspective. Didn't get a chance to catch up with him unfortunately.
I played a 55-y-I guy that just sold his $1.4m house for $950k, said activity picked up a few weeks ago after he dropped it $50k. My waitress is either drunk or dead tired, forgot my menu, my drink and left Japanese businessmans change on the counter by me. There are seven customers and only one looks Asian and it's not me.
My divorce would be proof of that. We cashed out at the top after doubling our money in 2005. I doubled it again in PM only to have her run off with the credit cards when I wouldn't buy her an even bigger house. The, now ex-wife, just bought a house a few weeks ago. She's her daddy's problem now...
Dryfly, I saw your comments about I-80 being jammed with trucks in the last thread. I had recently read somewhere that US Steel and one of the other big names have been consolidating national production in NW Indiana recently. We any of those trucks carrying steel?
Some were for sure [the big donut rolls]. A lot weren't. It was just weird having been there a week earlier & it was deserted.
Basel Too, I've got an original one for you (though I did tell it once on this board) and it's actually a true story.
First a little background. I live in the sticks. In 1983 I fled the L.A. office and 100+ hour workweeks at a firm whose name you might have heard for the peace and quiet of nowhereville. I got to represent real people with real problems rather than . . . (well, the other kind of client). There were 8 or 10 lawyers in the rather large geographical area and a courthouse with courtrooms 1 and 2.
Over a beer with an old geezer (in his office) he told me about a local lawyer who literally was the first lawyer to move to the area. He later became a Justice Court Judge (as in, you know, Roy Bean, a position that no longer exists in the State). The old geezer was the second one in the area. He told me the first one said to him one day "I am so glad you moved here. I had nothing to do. I was literally starving." The geezer (now deceased) then said to me: "So after that we both got rich."
Jay That is a good one. Maybe they will sell only one car or something.
......broward .....how did you know this fella is a jap.?.......
"Jap?"
Please fellas lets maintain a thin specter of PC.
sportsfan: yep, that's a lawyer joke.
If I had a lower-end house I would be trying to sell now for sure, everything that could be going in your favor in this economy is hitting right now: a dearth of foreclosure supply due to the moratoriums, spring selling season, federal and state first time homebuyer credits, record low mortgage rates, the FHA is still solvent. This is as good a selling market as it is going to be for the next year at least.
I think the next big blowup is the FHA, they have got to be sitting on a ton of losses that they haven't owned up to (if the servicer numbers I see are any indication), but when the taxpayer sees the cost of that bailout, there is going to be pressure to cut back on their guidelines.
ghost,
FHA? Tough race with PBGC and the FDIC, although the latter seems to be good at stringing things out, doesn't it?
EEngineer (profile) wrote
My divorce would be proof of that.
Sorry, dude. Divorce is harsh regardless of circumstance. I know. I'm on year 13 with wife #2.
He was speaking Japanese on his cell, although he might have been Korean. That's true about women and houses, I discovered myself in post-divorce dating.
She's too happy, I say she is buzzed.
Basel, I'm not a comedian so I'm going to stomp on my own punch line, especially since it's a true story.
They each bought quarter sections of land bisected by state highways. It was just a matter of time.
But the impact of him saying that while opening a can of beer still makes me laugh.
(BTW, he specialized in DUIs and also owned the two oldest bars in town.)
Can the Fed thread the needle? Can they jump start the economy while keeping interest rates in check and in so doing, push asset prices up to the point where Banks losses are manageable?
One problem (of many) is the banks themselves! They want to give back the TARP to be free of govt interference and want to hold onto their toxic assets (now that they don't have to MTM) to benefit from govt re-inflating asset prices.
The option characteristics of the toxic assets (green shoots resulting in magnified gains) could make such a strategy very lucrative for the strongest and most savvy banks. The weakest must eat TARP and sell assets to PPIPs and otherwise toe the govt line.
Good bank/bad bank?! Good bank: must rid itself of bad assets and make loans / Bad bank: capital strength allows them to buy/hold/invest in toxic assets.
Why would a bank want to be a BAD Bank instead of a GOOD Bank? Look for BAD Banks to trade up the price of toxic assets so that they can sell them back to GOOD Banks (TARP/Govt Funded/Govt controlled) at inflated prices. PUMP and DUMP on a grand scale.
.........Korean , Chinese , Japs Oooops , Japanese all look very alike to me........their languages more confusing.........
9 customers and 8 staff. We are NOT making money tonight.
Funny... Was watching the fight with a group of "friends" on Sat. One of the guys convinced all of the others that local home prices will rebound by the end of summer. I ,being the only renter, inquired about his reasoning... "It just feels like the bottom to me" and " there are so many good deals now"
They weren't happy when I gave them the facts e.g. local market(OC beach community) has a record number of listings, sales rate puts supply at 2.5 years, lenders are requiring 25 percent for non conforming jumbos, etc.
The conversation quickly reverted back to sports.
Jay D
Chinese are the ones that own your Treasury. The others also do in smaller pieces.
Then again, maybe I've just been reading too much CR, where skepticism and pessimism abound.
Can't understand why the Lakers are down 6 to the Rockets with 3 to play, but this is the time to watch an NBA game.
Can't understand why the Lakers are down 6 to the Rockets with 3 to play
Battier is probably the best Kobe defender in the league, even better than LeBron. 12-28 for kobe so far
hes in a sushi restaurant...
Broward:
What business are you in?
Can the Fed thread the needle?
Can pigs fly?
Yao speaks Chinese, Kobe was named after a Japanese restaurant.
Not Irving Fisher Said:
One of the guys convinced all of the others that local home prices will rebound by the end of summer. I ,being the only renter, inquired about his reasoning... "It just feels like the bottom to me" and " there are so many good deals now"
I'm sure we all know 3 or 4 people like this. Younger guy I know is looking to buy and seems like he's just going on price. Going on price will get you locked into a neighborhood you don't like. He seems to think now is the time to buy since inflation will hit and will end up screwing whoever is lending you the money. Another older guy I know is trying to buy a 2nd home in the same neighborhood. He just feels like its time to buy another home or something... I don't get it.
Do you think there is some kid running around Asia or Eastern Europe named Mcdonald? Starbuck?
yogi, I always thought Kobe was a type of beef, not a restaurant.
No, it's a jazz restaurant.
That $950k house was a divorce sale, on the market for almost a year.
Waitress is cute enough, probably 2nd gen chinese, stocky, broad face, native English.
No more marriage for me.
Once is Enough, although I'm amused that sexy GF just called to have me pick up groceries.
Later.
He should just change his name to MORAL.
Funny stuff from Congress re: Credit Card Bill of Rights (reading Congressional Record Extension of Remarks)
Mr. Chair, college students are particularly vulnerable to credit card targeting and marketing. As they walk through campus, they come across offers ranging from free food to clothing just for filling out a credit card application. But after the free gifts, too many students are left with piles of debt and nowhere to turn. For too long, credit card companies have had special deals with universities to let them market to students. Through these deals, schools receive large cash payments in exchange for handing over students' personal information and providing access to their campuses. Right now, with their families at home struggling, more students are turning to credit cards to fill the gap between their tuition bill and student loans. As a result they are racking up debts that take years to pay off. A Sallie Mae study recently reported that college seniors are graduating from school with an average of more than $4,100 in credit card debt.
In these tough economic times, more individuals and businesses are turning to credit cards to pay for basic necessities than ever before. In the U.S. credit card debt has reached nearly $1 trillion, with the average American's credit card debt reaching nearly $10,000 in 2007. While Americans are struggling to make ends meet and making decisions about which bills to pay and which medications and other necessities they can go without, credit card issuers are making record profits; over $19 billion in late fees, over-limit charges and other penalties.
Certainly Congress must realize the hypocrisy of passing this bill the same time they destroy America with their large deficits!
Another random thing I found re: Florida Safety Belt Law
I would like to take a moment to recognize the Florida Legislature for passing the Dori Slosberg and Katie Marchetti Safety Belt Law yesterday, a law giving police the power to stop motorists for not wearing seat belts. I believe this law is a great step forward in the effort to reduce the numbers of tragic deaths and injuries throughout Florida and should serve as an example for other state governments to follow in ensuring all Americans are safer on our roads.
If you really want to make people safe how about some automobile automation! Re-cock-u-lous!
Waitress is cute enough, probably 2nd gen chinese, stocky, broad face, native English.
ABC
Sportsfan there was a restaurant in Philly called "Kobe something..." and that's who he is named after, Probably didn't know it was also a city.
Sportsfan first time I ever heard you talk about sports...
He just feels like its time to buy
I wonder if anyone out there is currently commissioning any serious psychological studies on this phenomenon...
too many students are left with piles of debt and nowhere to turn
You'd think they were talking about massive student loans for useless degrees.
broward is an architect I am told
Sportsfan first time I ever heard you talk about sports...
Tim, it's just a name and one that has nothing to do with economics or finance.
OK but tell that to the Yankees. They could use a few more well heeled sports fans
Basel, I can't believe the Lakers shot 2/17 from behind the line at home in the playoffs. That's dissing yourself.
A company called Bright Automotive is introducing a vehicle targeted at corporate fleets called the IDEA. According to their site, it’s a “100-mpg plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) fleet vehicle”. It has a funky shape that is aerodynamically efficient, and the site says that “The IDEA will save a 250-vehicle fleet company more than $500,000 per year”. It works by “battery power for the first 30 miles, using little or no gasoline and less than $1 of electricity. After this, it functions like other hybrids. As an example of fuel efficiency, for customers with a 50-mile daily urban route, the IDEA uses about half a gallon of gasoline, which is like getting 100 mpg. For drivers with a 70-mile daily route, one gallon is used, similar to 70 mpg.”
The route distances seem right for delivery vehicles in urban areas; a FedEx truck with a route including a large office complex would probably fit this description perfectly. It seems that a re-fragmentation of the motor vehicle industry may be in the works, with manufacturers focused on specific market applications.
. . . well heeled sports fans
Uh, Tim, that wouldn't be me. I'm just a working class guy. Got a couple of part time jobs that I'm glad to have.
should have brought adam morrison in the game to help with the outside shooting
actually, the rockets match up really well against the lakers.
ah men brother here's to the part-time and contract workers of the US.
One thing the market has not priced in is a political shock. Iran, Pakistan, etc, None of this is priced in any market in any way. Nite
Basel, I may have to watch the game Wednesday though the odds would seem to favor a Lakers blowout. I'm curious if Battier can defend Kobe that well or if he did have a touch of the flu. Yao, however, is a pro all the way through and it may be his time to shine.
Yes, I did my 20 years and that ended. It's one of the reasons I saluted Hoopajoops for realizing that so early in the process.
Just watched McDonald's USA - Lopez Foods
a video on McDonald's website which shows a factory producing their beef burger patties
No insight to share, no wit to impart, just some uncertain awe
You'd think they were talking about massive student loans for useless degrees.
What about the massive student loans for useful degrees? Chinese and Indian engineers don't leave school with $80k in debt immediately. Competitive disadvantage comes in many forms other than wages.
EHP, it's riveting, all right, but I think I'll go listen to Jon Stewart. Goodnight, all.
NHL has outdrawn vs NBA in local tv markets these playoffs, you should check out hockey
Did you see "King Corn"? Frightening.
A hamburger from a corn-fed cow has about 6 times as much saturated fat per pound than grass-fed. The corn syrup segment will make you puke.
EHP,
I grew up in Colorado beef country (i.e., feed lot city) in the '70s. The kids I knew whose family was "in the business" said that McD's was their absolute toughest client (albeit a good and fair one). You did what they told you too or you didn't do business with them. Very high standards.
I am placing my bet on the FHA being the first to go down (i.e. ask for a huge cash infusion from the government), before the PBGC and FDIC. The devil I know...
finally got a couple of bites on the short reel at the close - FAZ @ 6.40 and TZA @ 26.80 .... should be an entertaining week.
if we kick the fib tires on this rally, that should mean 790 SPX or so. but 950 first wouldn't shock me (though I would be a grand or two poorer...)
As long as we're talking sports - the Dodgers are one left arm in the pen away from being the best Dodger team of all time.
Very interested to see how they match up against the Cards, in both the regular and postseason. No one in the AL will offer a challenge if they keep playing at this level.
ghost,
I wouldn't bet against you. I fully expect FHA to follow the GSE path, becoming yet another black hole for taxpayer money.
Anyone that thinks the Fed will ever be able to unwind it's holdings is smoking crack, meth & hash simultaneously. Besides the ever-soaring federal deficits you have the backstopping of the banks, AIG, GSEs, FHA, FDIC, PBGC, FHLB, etc. None of these institutions can survive without ongoing transfusions of mountains of cash, yet what's the alternative? Let the banks, AIG, FDIC and/or FHLB fail and perhaps they have their systemic banking failure. Let the GSEs and/or FHA go and the real estate market collapses overnight, again taking the banking system down with it. Let PBGC fail? Might as well immediately write off SS & Medicare as well.