Does anyone know how much the market is up since that CLOWN Derinnger posted that "nuclear bomb" and related post about the market ready to implode? LOL
Does anyone know how much the market is up since that CLOWN Derinnger posted that "nuclear bomb" and related post about the market ready to implode? LOL
I commented on the last thread: I want Karl on John Stewart NOT Cramer. It would be fun.
today's close seems to be where we'd be at if we extrapolate 1-12 months. i don't have any fancy technical software to confirm.
Not surprising when one realizes that the actual stock market is not reflective of the actual real economy, but instead simply a market to trade claims on the real economy. one of the reasons i thought we were in for a rally because we're getting momentum investors up AND down, which probably has never been the case during any other recession.
Just realized I had a small XLE position that I bought in Oct (horrible call).still underwater couldn't mind sing it at 50 again for just a second or maybe 49.5?
The last two have large amounts of debt, a characteristic that was being punished only a short two months ago. Those stocks with large amounts of debt are still sporting very expensive put options. Go figure.
"I commented on the last thread: I want Karl on John Stewart NOT Cramer. It would be fun. "
This Derringer guy had no problem slamming the bulls, realtors, etc...for being dead wrong, where is his Mea Culpa? How much money did his "nuclear bomb" call cost people?
AMF - I think it's more like - stocks are valued on the expectation of future earnings... 1st quarter was not as bad as expected and guidance forward was better than expected... plus we found out that the bailout of AIG really was a transfer payment to several big banks, some of them here... so bank earnings were way better than expected... Huff and Puff - until the Fed runs out of gas...
From a technical standpoint, this is what's known as your classic "Buttcheeks" formation, and notice how we're getting ready to nosedive down the left ...
It does suck. Perhaps I should have pointed our that today's gain equaled a lifetime of gains based on the 1 month T-bill rate.
As long as we don't divide by zero, everything should be fine. Even negative interest rates should get the CON back in the eCONomy. No zero rates though. That would kill the quant models.
Agree stocks price in Trajectory as much as capital, brand power etc.
Exhibit A is MSFT still making money as when it was 60 per share but growth has slowed and we find it closer to 20 now.
My guess for the multitude who don't care: This little rally may run for another 1000-1500 pts (DJIA), but WATCH OUT at 10k! When the retirees and boomers still trapped in this mess see 5 digits scroll across the ticker, to the exits they all will run... and fast!
Everyone... EVERYONE... I talk to in the off line world is seeing dandelions and butterflies and blue skies of recovery right now. Psychology is a powerful thing...
Incindentally - I forgot to add - the ECB does not have a mandate for full employment as the fed does - only to hold inflation to 2%
They also have cradle to grave welfare state safety net... who cares if you're unemployed in Ireland - get to hit the pub early. As for France, Italy & Spain woo hoo beaches & babes too.
I just have to imagine the Treasury and Fed and Administration are puckered tight at this unforeseeable consequence. What makes Fifth Third worth 450% more than 6 weeks ago? They'll be lucky if circuit breakers are sufficient to contain this.
If sheeple idiot money starts coming in, this thing could defy all logic and keep going up. Lots of cash sitting on the sidelines, and people who still believe in 'long term investing,' 'dollar cost averaging,' and similar magical thinking.
No top until either Friday or next Monday. But the resistance levels are getting closer and closer together so don't expect much up-side either. The stress test is meaningless for this market but the Unemployment numbers on Friday may be too bad to ignore. There is a chance of a 9 handle.
Fed is not directly supporting small biz and consumers yet - still counting on the regional banks for that... But the fed has been buying up tbonds which supports congressional spending, and that money is flowing directly into the economy... Incidentally here is where some of our tax dollars are going - sounds like a good cause...
scone,
Too many people are afraid of having someone in their immediate family face long term unemployment. In that context, there will not be a rush of day trader money. Meanwhile, pension funds are not increasing risk and are delaying contributions if possible because of parent company troubles. Also, many employers that have a private pension plan are also furloughing/laying off workers such that there are fewer contributions
I haven't paid much attention to the financial media, but I did become sick of the phrase "green shoots"
JP Morgan announced today that they will sell 5 billion in bonds based on credit card payment cash flow - anybody want some of those???? I'm sticking with my GNMA's....
ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 3:47 pm reply Ignore user
... But the fed has been buying up tbonds which supports congressional spending, and that money is flowing directly into the economy...
The money has been going into keeping state and municipal bloodsuckers still sucking the blood of citizens. The result of much of this spending has had a negative stimulus.
Fed is not buying very many bonds. FOMC authorized $300 billion but treasury is sell SFP for $200 billion and purchases so far are not even offsetting that. Fed policy is very tight for current conditions. They should be buying more bonds but everyone is talking inflation (which is crazy) so the Fed is likely to err on the side of too tight policy. Hopefully they will realize their mistake quickly when the next downward lurch occurs.
dated 2/16. i read that as a coordinated short by numerous hedgies playing off the nationalization fears, even to the extent of planting people on blogs. from now on, the hedgies, shorts and long, are going to exaggerate movement on both directions.
but today's closing looks to be a near extrapolation of 1-12 month decline.
Looked at the SPY chart a hundred ways; simply can't see what made it turn on March 9th.
Yeah, we were oversold, but not even as oversold as last October, or last July.
Maybe you could make the case for some mild divergences, but certainly nothing that would mark a major bottom.
I'd love for someone to show me how they think the SPY chart foretold all this.
For folks it's called doubling down. Don't discounts all that money being printed to buy equities. It's the easiest way to fund the banks. First they make money buying up paper then they sell some more of their own paper in a "hot" market. Then...
Helicopter is the stock buyer of last resort. He will continue to inject money for stocks or bonds to keep his buddies at GS in business.
This rally is nothing more than the fed trying to prop up stocks, housing, cars, and anything American.
All this buying by the fed will be for naught as treasury rates continue to climb wiping out any potential for refinancing both real estate and corporate debt.
The only buying in US Treasuries is the fed. How long can this last! My guess maybe another month at most.
Elmo is taking it in four different orifices right now.
1) Those who believe that the market is turning and we're going to have a bull run
2) Those who believe that hyperinflation is right around the corner and want to protect themselves with equities
3) Financials/government who want the banks to recap via equity offerings (hence expansion of POMOs). See GS trading activity.
4) Shorts/Quants getting blown to smithereens, margin calls, etc.
OptionArmageddon found this quotable opinion from Merrill: "You know it’s a low quality rally when the top 50 most heavily shorted stocks are the ones that outperform the most – up 28% in April, an 1,860 basis point spread over the broad equity market."
Elmo is taking it in four different orifices right now.
1) Those who believe that the market is turning and we're going to have a bull run
2) Those who believe that hyperinflation is right around the corner and want to protect themselves with equities
3) Financials/government who want the banks to recap via equity offerings (hence expansion of POMOs). See GS trading activity.
4) Shorts/Quants getting blown to smithereens, margin calls, etc.
The perfect storm.
Well I was a buyer last June and October, but did not buy in March 2009.... So far I have been wrong on that one but I am still getting my gnma yield of close to 5%... If we got to 600 I would increase my stock allocation by half, if we got to 400 I would do it again...
Nemo, scone,
There was some buy in for a week or two, but there are too many people liquidating TrimTabs Trial Request
This is a highly managed rally. It can only continue while it is not disturbed
Stock Market Indicators
1) The projected budget deficit for 2009 is $2 trillion
2) The debt-drowned United States debt is already 350 percent of G.D.P and rising fast !
3) The Fed is now holding $10 Trillion of ‘assets’ ( mostly toxic ) transferred from too big to fail banks.
4) Other countries are now buying less of our debt
Yup I agree CR this puts the recent rally into perspective.
Bear markets are notorious for financially ruining both the bulls and the bears. This current bear is no exception, especially with the fed, CONgress and the Treasury ignoring the laws of the land.
As the Porkulus money gets out to the masses it will look pretty good for a while, then when that runs out things will slow down again and there will be renewed calls for more stimulus..... probably by the congress right before the 2010 elections.... also dont forget there is some census fraud about to happen which will be used to gerrymander the districts some more trying to keep the Democrats in power... and since there has been no structural change in the laws to encourage business, the economy will become more and more dependent on the Feds printing power... If anything happens to that then a really sharp correction of some kind is in the works... I keep hearing people saying that Obama will be the 'last' president.... What if there really was a systemic failure? Could the USA break up into smaller parts? Could we wind up with martial law or a military dictatorship? I dunno - wait and see...
Where is the Fed holding $10 Trillion of assets? Is it in your house that they've been hiding that stuff?
People talk about the government spending multiple trillions of dollars but if they were the economy would be have way more cash than I see any evidence of .
Lots of cash sitting on the sidelines, and people who still believe in 'long term investing,' 'dollar cost averaging,' and similar magical thinking.
Plenty of buy-and-holders still out there, no doubt, but did they ever take their money out to begin with?
No. They left it and funded their 401k. Maybe in the long run they are right. Most people aren't dealing with a ton of money. This thing is being run by the machine. Money for everyone. Pump and Pump and dump. You get a mortgage. Here you get a credit card.
I thought that I read the current Fed balance sheet is around 2 trillion but they have guaranteed about another 12 trillion which they might have to pony up...
GDP of 14 trillion in 2008 when people still had HELOC's and credit cards with available credit - lot of that is gone... lot of layoffs since then too... GDP for this year without Porkulus and the Obama budget would be about 12.5 trillion probably - but with the extra spending gdp will probably come in closer to 15 trillion this year - make it look good going into the election, Mr. Potemkin...
I got out of my miniscule rally running with the bulls position on Friday because I was too scared that the news on the flu outbreak would suddenly turn worse this weekend. Instead, it turns better. So, I miss another 10% up on the airlines. That's ok. Im ok with that. I really am. And now, I prepare to short. I will miss the first day of the next leg down, then enter. Until then, I will sideline for the rest of any of what is left of this rabid bull. He will die in the streets, running, scared, delusional.
Keep in mind, as long as we are the world's policeman, we were never collapsing. Our military will be funded by buying our bonds and funding the walmart/warrior class for at least 10 more years.
Trip wire might be Wednesday May 20th when the Federal government announces a temporary backstop program to help the fundamentally sound State of California through a short term liquidity crisis.
Hi Evil! I was thinking of wage slave 401k and Roth money, the 'captive' stuff where you have to do something with it, and money markets, T-bills, etc. don't cut the mustard. I agree, not so much day trader type money in this "fluffy bunny" rally.
Heck, if I didn't read CR and hang around with you all, I'd probably be stupid enough to move our 401k out of cash. OTOH, it's not always wise to bet against the thundering herd, which is getting a strong 'the crisis is over now, the markets are stabilized' message from the PTB.
And then there's my BIL in Australia who wants to 'get back in the American market, because prices are so cheap.' Sigh. I don't know what to tell the guy.
Samdog IMO Obama's speech was good ( if he backs it up with action not just talk ) because we need to collect taxes of overseas earnings but this does not condone Obama's deal with Wall St i.e. I provide you with trillions in bailout $$$ and in return you pump up the market ( the ole lipstick on the pig ) to create illusion of change and false economic prosperity
Really I rather admire the way the Chinese responded to the slowdown... As soon as the factories started having problems and laying people off, they put out a huge infrastructure program to give those workers a place to go - and it didnt take any session of congress to get it done, which is to their advantage... Not that I am advocating that we should have a dictatorship though - I still like those pesky elections even if they are fraudulent...
Tens of millions of ordinary Americans were living like millioniares. All that debt will not be paid back. And much of the debt that is paid back, will be at a much lower interest rate than anticipated.
Too many have spent too much. The faux prosperity from excessive debt is long gone. All shams end in tears. Some sooner, some later.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves...it's only been 36.1% move for the S&P, and that's from 666, the intraday low. From the low closing price (675) we're only up 34.4%, by my calculations...
ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 4:12 pm reply Ignore user
What did Obama say this morning? I missed it... probably sleeping in like a borgeoise slob...
He said "new taxes, more taxes and promised close loopholes."
Samdog,
I hate to speculate without even looking through the economic calendar, or considering the fallout from the auto industry reduction in force, or the cumulative effect of many local government cuts. It could end tomorrow, it could last until year end. Just like the rally in oil, which had deeper roots in reality, it will end by someone's arbitrary choice that will swing the momentum and build up rapidly. Oil could have stayed at $150 per barrel until the economy faltered or Saudi Arabia's new fields came on stream in October, but at $147.50 someone's arbitrary action was large enough to swing the balance.
Without putting any work into it, I would say the hard limit would be this August. Could begin anywhere from a sovereign default, to a foreign equity market decline, to a domestic bond default. They are all intertwined at this point given how low bank, and other major players, excess assets are.
Would hope that a UK default doesn't immediately trigger covering inter-bank lending guarantees, private position liquidation, and general panic. I don't think any inner circle countries will fail this year, we've already formally committed at the top to a binary choice of status quo and steep failure. Will need to see the poor economy eat away from the ground up. In the mean time there are plenty of disposable countries
I can tell you that earnings and the real economy will not recover in 2009, and that all positions which implicitly back the assertion of a 2nd half recovery are simply bogus.
because we need to collect taxes of overseas earnings but this does not condone Obama's deal
Like I posted before. Many of the MNCs now earn more money abroad than domestic. If earnings abroad are taxed contemporaneously, as opposed to when repatriated, what prevents a company from moving the domicile international and constructing an American subsidiary?
ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 7:12 pm
What did Obama say this morning? I missed it ...
Actually nothing new -- pretty much what he's be saying since the primaries. Tax businesses, tax the "wealthy", transfer wealth -- you know, Robinhood-In-Chief philosophy.
He warned us and he's doing it. Interesting that only a tiny dose of that poison killed Dukakis in '88.
"Don't discounts all that money being printed to buy equities. It's the easiest way to fund the banks."
I actually think it was meant to fund the life insurers. They are very exposed to the equity markets, and the govt had no money (or authority) to bail them all out directly. So they did it indirectly.
Samdog (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 4:14 pm reply Ignore user
Rob Dawg! --There you are ... 'splain me somethin' like Ricky used to say.
Tell me the story behind this "tinfoil hat" business. I seem to always come in for the punch line and miss the joke.
Thanks in advance.
Old joke that predates Gore's invention of the internet. Tinfoil hats keep out the brain controlling radio waves.
ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 4:16 pm reply Ignore user
Hey beavis - he said "Fundamentally sound state of California"...
I love it when a meme takes hold. Broward, are you listening?
I think the meltdown of California will be the wake-up call. If the states aren't given abundant free money, the rif at all gov't levels (save federal) will be stunning to even those not directly affected.
Keep your eye on this chart. Stocks are in a false rally because of the moritorium on foreclosures which ended 3/31 has masked the huge amount of foreclosures coming this year and next.
scone,
What the TrimTabs report shows does include the 401k and Roth contributions, as well as any other money invested into US equity mutual funds (just one of the categories)
I haven't tallied it recently, but probably $400bn to $500bn has been withdrawn in the last year. Consider it substitution for credit cards and MEW
I would be more at ease if private money had been returning to US equity markets, because that would mean the rally managers would see it worthwhile to close out their positions, which would mean the re-pricing of assets could continue, which would mean we would be closer to the end. I'm not so much a bear, as I want to see things brought to their conclusion and the restoration of a modicum of logic when it comes to valuation and planning decisions.
The Los Angeles Unified School District issued 5400 notices of potential layoff. This is an organized, rich, state and nationally supported group and if the election results reflect the polls on May 20th those 5400 will not be enough. Of course the federal government will step in.
It will be interesting to see small municipality bonds squeezed out of the marketplace.
I remember an old tv show where they were interviewing a Russian guy who had received a long sentence in Florida for drug smuggling - he was connected to the Colombian cartel... He was talking about the cartel wanted to get a big submarine to smuggle drugs up here so this guy called someone he knew in the Russian Navy... and said "Let me ask you a really stupid question. Would it be possible to buy a Russian nuclear submarine?" and the Russian Navy guy says "Would that be with missles, or without missles?"
"I dont even know where the nukes are in this country... but I would expect that some would be at the base in Missouri where the B2's are housed..."
I once had a chat for a few hours with a Missouri farmer, one of whose wheat fields had been partially appropriated for a MmII silo.
After a while he said: "Wanna see it?' So we drove over in his pick-up and saw it. Big concrete slab, motion sensors, chain link fence, surrounded by June wheat. He was none too pleased by the appropriation. His brother had a pig farm-factory across the road, which the farmer seemed to think was a foolish investment.
September / School / University is an economically significant point whether or not Cali can fund them at the time or not. If they can fund them, that is bad news for their balance sheet. If they can't fund them, that means layoffs, and bad news for the household's balance sheet. Income and debt always reconcile, one way or another. A new interpretation of «o plata o plomo» if you will allow it
Hmmm people making 401k withdrawals - that might also explain the consumer spending increase.... talk about kicking the can down the road... You hit 55 with no retirement savings, the world dont look so rosy any more...
The Chinese want an aircraft carrier to project power and supplant us as the policeman in the Pacific Ocean. Their goal (publicly stated) is to dominate out to the second island chain (past Japan) by 2030. And they'll do it.
85k for a nuke - way below the build cost... We should have bought them up instead of building our own... Actually I think I remember some rumors that we were doing exactly that to keep them off the terror bazaar
SIBEL EDMONDS: In Congress We Trust...Not
The former FBI translator and whistleblower suggests blackmail may be at the heart of Congressional refusal to bring accountability and oversight to its own members - such as both Hastert and Harman - in matters of espionage and national security
I have been known to quote long-dead men in my past writings. Whether eloquently expressed thoughts by our founding fathers, or those artfully expressed by ancient Greek thinkers, these quotes have always done a better job starting or ending my thoughts - that tend to be expressed in long winding sentences. For this piece I am going to break with tradition and start with an appropriate quote from a living current senator, John Kerry: "It's a sad day when you have members of Congress who are literally criminals go undisciplined by their colleagues. No wonder people look at Washington and know this city is broken."
The people do indeed look at Washington and know that this city is 'badly' broken, Senator Kerry. The public confidence in our Congress has been declining drastically. Recent poll results highlight how the American people's trust in their Congress has hit rock bottom. A survey of progressive blogs easily confirms the rage rightfully directed at our Congress for abdicating its role of oversight and accountability.
What do you think are the implications for China with aircraft carriers? Colonial aspirations or self defense (against who?) Offensive intent against ???
I read the story in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists years ago. The warhead was supposedly in the basement of a building in Moscow. Was there a weapon inside the warhead? Doubt it. You can see what one of those warheads looks like at the Air & Space Museum in DC. Astonishing how small it is for such a payload. IIRC, 200,000 k.
@Evil, thanks for the TrimTabs info! I wasn't sure what I was looking at. The charts I'm seeing are for the mid-April time frame-- so can we know what the inflow/outflow picture looks like for the last 3 weeks?
Samdog IMO Obama's speech was good ( if he backs it up with action not just talk ) because we need to collect taxes of overseas earnings but this does not condone Obama's deal with Wall St i.e. I provide you with trillions in bailout $$$ and in return you pump up the market ( the ole lipstick on the pig ) to create illusion of change and false economic prosperity
I give you a few trillion and then I tax you a few billion. Trillion is still more.
However, the USA has nothing to worry about because we put drugs in the drinking water and feed constant bullshit disinformation to the American populace most of whom do not understand it or just take it at face value.
The Chinese want an aircraft carrier to project power and supplant us as the policeman in the Pacific Ocean. Their goal (publicly stated) is to dominate out to the second island chain (past Japan) by 2030. And they'll do it.
a whole lot of bonds to sell between now and 2030. Enjoy it. Many boomers dead by then, so genx holds the turd bag on dollar collapse.
That mortgage reset chart looks really scary if you are a congressperson looking at the 2010 election... - SI
Yes, the PTB are highly motivated to make the whole magical fluffy bunny recovery look real. There will be pixie dust and glitter, and a willing suspension of disbelief, and so on until victory is declared.
There are dummy atomic bombs at the Air Force museum in Dayton too - even the first ones were not all that big, and then they shrunk like crazy... How many in a Polaris now? 10? 12? Each one independently targeted.... Incidentally the missle is also booby trapped just in case someone tries to tamper with it, launch it unauthorized etc...
The Chinese want an aircraft carrier to project power and supplant us as the policeman in the Pacific Ocean. Their goal (publicly stated) is to dominate out to the second island chain (past Japan) by 2030. And they'll do it.
Bad word choice. Seems like a lot of the same nonsense for 30 years. Stem cells or no stem cells.
Wouldn't most any sizable surface ship be a sitting duck, with technology allowing it's adversaries to track it's whereabouts and press a button that unleashes a missile that doesn't miss?
That's an unusual breakout since the bottom.
It broke the lower low rule and the volatility is much smaller.
The 56.8% loss could actually be a bottom.
The double bottom (double top) is often an indicator of trend reversal.
Basel Too,
Ironic, I'm not sure about that. It's union politics, cronyism, seniority. The problem has never been unions per se, it has been that standard union organization or management in the American/Canadian context has been all wrong. It is not responsive to its members, or to its employer. They are designed in a way where the only objective is getting re-elected within the union, and to keep as many union members as possible paying dues.
Unions can encourage increased productivity, and good working conditions. However, instead of supporting beneficent feedback and communication, they are likely to disrupt it. No different from say, the board of directors for Tyco or AOL or Lehman. The problem isn't that there is a government, union, or corporation — it is how they are run and to what result
shadowinv - that is a pretty funny quote on the airlines. In the long run, yeh, Im with him on it. But I can assure you there was a LOT of money to be made in the last month, and the little scare on the flu didnt do much to take it away. I was just afraid it would, so I left the casino a bit early. The smoke was getting to me anyway.
My belief in this rally goes along with what goadam said : this is a great way to fund the banks...make believe invented rally built on nothing but its own circuitous logic.
Commies in Japan - sounds like their educational system is failing too - learn from history or repeat the mistakes... That guy who is reading Marx needs to get a copy of The Animal Farm...
If you rely on big block trades to temporarily overwhelm the market and drive the price up, perhaps it is rally with very thin support in numbers and money
Some of the people do well under all govt systems... But as Friedman said, "The most people will be the best off with the least government"... With the outcome of recent elections, it's clear that in a democracy the electorate can be manipulated to their detriment and that works best when their level of education is the lowest... I've never lived under a dictatorship - somehow people still function - but it doesnt look too good from the outside...
Phalanx vs Dong Feng 21
Dong Feng 21employs a complex guidance system, low radar signature and a maneuverability that makes its flight path unpredictable, the odds that it can evade tracking systems to reach its target are increased. It is estimated that the missile can travel at mach 10 and reach its maximum range of 2000km in less than 12 minutes.”
Like I said not sure how much of this is accurate.
Protection against ballistic missles - portable tracking radar - looks kind of like a floating oil platform with a big radome on it... stationed in alaska..
shadowinv - that is a pretty funny quote on the airlines. In the long run, yeh, Im with him on it. But I can assure you there was a LOT of money to be made in the last month, and the little scare on the flu didnt do much to take it away. I was just afraid it would, so I left the casino a bit early. The smoke was getting to me anyway.
My belief in this rally goes along with what goadam said : this is a great way to fund the banks...make believe invented rally built on nothing but its own circuitous logic.
Doesn't mean i am not stupid enough or smart enough to have money in it. 2003 to 2007 was nice. How long is this "bull" market? A week? A year? Give me an explanation of this besides reflation? Give me an investment.
Yes Phalanx is more of a defense against aircraft and aircraft launched missles - not ballistic missles... Ballistic missle need to be countered with another missle - something like the Patriot only longer range..
Phalanx is far from perfect but I seriously doubt any missile could "weave" and dodge fast enough to survive 75 rounds per second. Speed and maneuverability are inversely related. To dodge requires a slower speed, which makes it an easier target in some respects.
I'm not a big fan of carriers, I spent too much time reading The Great Reckoning which is largely based on the projection of force. If I remember correctly, Davidson predicted that a great deal of the current U.S. military would ultimately be costly & useless in the next war. I can see that with ICBM's and carriers.
Truthfully I never really know where the market is going - I do a lot of analysis and have an opinion, but it doesnt always work. I use an asset allocation method which basically forces you to sell high and buy low, except that I am normally always buying without selling - basically I am building an asset to pass on to the next generation, normally not consuming anything out of the portfolio. For example, you could go 40% gnma bond fund, and 60% total stock index etf... Then when the allocation gets out of alignment, say bonds have reached 45% and stocks have reached 55% you rebalance - sell some bonds and buy more stocks... That's the simplest way to do it. You may or may not hit the pivot points, and this does not protect you from the big cliff dive we have had, but overall you come out better because you are really not putting your chips on a single square.
Notice I have no debt, live a pretty frugal and muted lifestyle, and save money every month out of a pretty small income. The actual method I use is more complicated than above using sector funds and I also hold some individual stocks but I count that allocation in the appropriate sector.
I read a lot of r&d stuff and the US military has a lot of 'special projects' that use new technologies which boggle the mind. The use of UAVs are the first public acknowledgment of where we are headed. I am sure many of you have seen the video of the robot dog. Those are being tested this summer in Afghanistan with weapon packs. But these are small projects. Think about floating weapon platforms in the sky that are invisible, unmanned, and can ionize targets with microwaves(assumption, real technology not revealed in brief). I think the US still has plenty of tricks up its sleeve to stay number one, but we are projecting weakness. Is this real, on purpose, moving us toward hegemony? I don't know...but it is frustrating trying to figure out where we are going.
Eh assets - I also own some real estate and I have some allocation to commodities via DBA and DBC and GSG... When your portfolio grows to the proper size you should always have something in all asset classes - in other words never take an asset class to zero... If you want to do more market timing you can change the asset class allocation - for example if the sp500 was to go to 400, I would be looking to get my stocks allocation from 35% to 65%... and I can do that because I wont have to sell if I'm wrong...
Really OT but...John McPhee wrote "The Curve of Binding Energy", one of my favorite books, about a Cal Tech. graduate student in the physics dept. who couldn't or didn't want to write his PhD dissertation. Instead his advisor got him a job designing atomic bombs at Los Alamos. He was very good at it and McPhee is equally good at writing about it. Great read. The book reminded me of "The Right Stuff".[Get the 1974 edition because it has the steps for converting enriched uranium hexafluoride gas into fissionable uranium using common chemistry lab equipment (does require a vacuum oven and enriched gas, however).]
Thanks for the follow up RE tinfoil hat retail outlet and repair centers. I was sure that if anyone knew, it would be you.
Also, I saw you response to my trigger question--you and EHP appear to share common ground regarding the major state financial collapse scenario.
To show my appreciation, here's a reprise of my Haiku in response to the exchange below; seems relevant to your remark about meme possession and Browa - - ---well, I won't mention names (heh, heh):
Samdog (profile) wrote on Sat, 5/2/2009 - 12:29 am
metabear (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/1/2009 - 11:43 pm "bearly: Let's not forget, Obama, the community-organizer-in chief, is in WAY over his head."
metabear: this seems to be the only reason you visit this site. to endlessly repeat this meme. do you have another shtick?
Haiku Meditation:
His meme is his shtick
Not very clever? Perhaps
Look--see O submerged!
Everyone... EVERYONE... I talk to in the off line world is seeing dandelions and butterflies and blue skies of recovery right now.
I guess you don't know anyone in Ohio or Michigan? I'm hearing a very different story from back home.
They laid off at my wife's office today - she is a manager and had to let ~4 go out of the 20 or so she supervises.
This was their third lay off wave... round one they let go those who didn't do their job well and didn't get along... she had no problem with that round, kind of looked forward to it. They were her problem children. Round two it was those who didn't do their job well OR didn't get along... that was tougher. This wave every one of them was a good employee and a good team player - had to go anyway... sales are just tanking.
She fully expected to be one of them but then who who do her lay offs? The managers got cut LAST week so she survived those cuts to win the privilege of getting to lay off others.
She thought moving into management would be a gas - she is natural leader & a very good mentor... competent in the subject matter too not just a 'managers manager'. She was moved up right after 9/11 when they made big cuts and she juggled better than anyone on a shoe string staffing... as they staffed back up she was promoted a couple times... she understood that she would have to fire people as a manager but never thought she'd see it so bad that she would have to let solid, honest, top performers go. They are there now - a lot of companies are 'there' now.
The only good thing you can say for those laid off is they'll have more time to see dandelions, butterflies and blue skies... less time under the glare of florescent lighting & in front of monitors.
[I made her a monster pineapple daiquiri when she came home - she is off in the corner with it now]...
A few years ago there was some high school kid back east who turned his mom's garden shed into radioactive waste trying to produce something - dont remember the whole story...
China getting a flat top is not that big a deal, the Chinese are not particularly expansionist (with the exception of Tibet), unlike the Russians who always wanted to expand their buffer by controling more territory, the problem being is that just set new borders, which then needed a buffer. That happened under the Romanoffs as much as under the Communists. As one of the great powers if does have legitamate security needs, most notably a need to make sure the straights of Mallaca are open to Chinese trade. I don't even think they will invade Taiwan, barring an outright declaration of independence by the island. More likely they will expand trade contacts (they just started buying in) and eventually more or less absorb Taiwan gradually. They famously have a much longer perspective than the west, this is illistrated by the story of the Chinese historian who was asked about his opinion of the French Revolution to which he replied "its too soon to tell". They are also smart enough not to want to do a full scale conventional war with the US. That would be totally at odds with the teachings in "The Art of War". Never attack a strength, only attack a weakness. A full scale naval engagement, sort of a modern replay of the Battle of Midway would be attacking a US strength. Not the way they think.
Military technology has been continually suppressed throughout history by those trying to maintain power or balance. Just look at the crossbow, early chemical weapons (hell the classical greeks had chemical weapons), firearms, even the zeppelin. Notice every time we try to reintroduce the zeppelin for commercial transport, it gets canned. Technology is so much more advanced than the scared in our memory Hindenburg, but we don't use it. We used them to great effect in WWI and WWII. Most people don't know that we used blimps in WWII, but we did. I think we are on the verge of a major transformation in military warfare but we are afraid to show it to the world.
Not much change that i can see. You don't need a meme, though. I think it's fairly obvious that the constant tax tweaking of the past twenty years has federal and state governments close to "peak tax income". Anything they do will decrease income.
I'll play around with California for a few more minutes, see if I can find anything.
I got a good laugh out of the Russians taking one of their old Bear bombers to Venezuela... Bring that puppy anywhere near the US coast, see it turned into an oil slick...
The attitude I'm getting here in Oregon is resignation-- this state was not exactly the mother lode of prosperity even before the current troubles. So there seems to be more depression than anger. A lot of people seem to have given up a long time ago, and are sort of inured to it. I'd hate to think the state was heading to permanent poverty, like the deep South or Appalachia, but that's what I'm reading.
Also since I was proposing that H1N1 be pronounce 'Hiney', then it got a whole new meaning when I read that WHO is worried that Hiney will cross with HIV....
Well the predator has been invaluable over there.. for one thing... I suppose they are using the Global hawk too but not talking about it... Then there are all the bomb bots, the patrol bots that look like a go cart - Probably has saved innumerable lives...
jack valenti, former head of the MPAA, is generally regarded as the most successful lobbyist. Given what he did to the copyright laws, it's hard to disagree.
I love Oregon and I'm going to go spend a bunch of money there this summer too. Going to get my rv interior updated in Junction City and drop some coin in the brewpubs all over the state... Might take a party boat fishing in the ocean too, if I have enough room in the freezer...
Communism on rise in recession-hit Japan
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8027397.stm
I was in the Rathskeller of a 'German' restaurant in the Midwest the night the Berlin Wall came down... we were watching it live on cable TV and drinking heavily & eating German food [I remember I was eating smoked pork hocks, kraut & potatoes - something my wife would not approve of as I would certainly have BAD gas later - delicious though]. The proprietor's family had come from 'The East' and he & I both agreed the BEST THING to ever happen to communism since the Germans put Lenin on a train back to Czarist Russia circa 1917 was the falling of that damned wall.
We debated how many years it would take for unconstrained corporate capitalist excess to 'over do it' and give people a reason to become 'neo-communists'... as foolish as that sounds we both agreed it would happen eventually... pendulums swing back & forth - we little people need to try to stay out of the way.
Can't recall my estimate then of when 'neo-communism' makes a come back but now is as good as any time.
This Derringer guy had no problem slamming the bulls, realtors, etc...for being dead wrong, where is his Mea Culpa? How much money did his "nuclear bomb" call cost people?
Do you mean Denninger? He has been spot on most of his calls, including warning bears back in late Feb that a "rip your face off" bear rally was due.
I'm not sure what you're referring too, and if it is KD you could at least get his name right.
Chinese subs might be a little scary but we will probably be able to track them with no problems... The Russians always said that the reason Russia were so afraid of our subs was that they were so quiet they were never really sure if they were tracking them or not...
@ShadowInventory - it's a pretty place, for sure, and they will certainly appreciate some trade, especially the back country people and at the coast. And of course Bend is in trouble.
That is because we are fighting a limited war again with limited objectives. Technology can't win a war where you can't 'win'. That is too simplistic... we are trying to win the hearts and minds of a people we have invaded. Total warfare doesn't accomplish this according to those who decide the rules. I don't know if 'limited' war has ever worked though. We are too civilized now which is why the barbarians are knocking on the gates. I do think a armored robo-dog with .50 cal weapon pods waltzing into a cave at night might be interesting...will see if the hype matches the results.
RD, can't see much about California & taxes or bankrtupcy or bailout.
There seems to be marginally less fear of bankruptcy but not enough to claim complacency.
I'd say the camps are the same - people who believe trouble is coming and people who believe Feds will fix it all.
On the "positive economy" side, there's a pop in Google traffic in the past ninety days.
Alexa's graphs say Facebook.com is lying about their rate of membership increase, just a sawtooth curve for the past eighteen months which is much more in line with what I expected.
I know, i'm having a hard time believing the Feds have arrested The Crash, too, but there's a lot of indications.
According to the institute, out of the expected 2 million subsidized car sales, 1.5 million would have happened anyway. The IWH said the car scrapping incentive could burden the federal budget with 2,6 billion euros ($3,5 billion).
Under the popular scheme, the government offers a 2,500-euro bonus to anyone who puts a car 9 years or older in the crusher and buys a new one.
Germany was the first to pay the incentive, but many have followed with probably more yet to follow. In Canada our idiot government and truly stupid finance minister is expected to buy up pools of auto loans for no real reason beyond cronyism under the guise of saving jobs
EHP its just a giant smoothing operation. They will suck any and all of the true blood they can find from the future in order to avoid letting the economy properly adjust now.
Is this real, on purpose, moving us toward hegemony? I don't know...but it is frustrating trying to figure out where we are going.
Play possum for politics. Anti-bush with friendly wars. When oil runs short or dollar ratchet blows up, then the attitude will change to a "strong america." We are a long way from Japan, EU and GS buying their "protection" from China.
RD, I saw your $20 billion deficit number for fiscal 2009.
One thing I've never been able to do is quantify the IT revolution versus the Industrial revolution. They've very similar in many ways except the rates-of-change in IT are much larger. Those were confined to the IT industry itself and made little difference in how the revolution was progressing in the real world.
I still think those orders of magnitude don't mean much.
But I can't be sure.
I think the Feds can create a stabilization effect with lower mortgage rates which might last a couple of years.
Personally, I would be happy if California delayed its blow-up for another ten years.
GDD9000
Not a smoothing operation at all. I knew better by age 3, "Don't count your chickens until the eggs are hatched". That is the essence of a credit bubble. Now we know there are not enough chickens for everyone to eat tonight. Instead of everyone eating a little less, or a few eating nothing at all, we have proceeded to slaughter the last of the chickens. Thereby guaranteeing no one will eat tomorrow night, and it will take some time before we have to stop worrying about survival. It's not kosher. You don't eat the chicken with the egg... it's not an ethical or literal prescription, it's a reminder to not be incredibly stupid
EHP - maybe we have a terminology disagreement. I dont disagree with your egg analogy at all. Im not saying the operation will be at all successful. But I think those carrying it out have convinced themselves (across the globe) that it will be.
What this means given a debt based economy is fewer and fewer people have access to credit as their future earning become ever more doubtful. Think about it.
The basis of our economic system is really that we have some growth and that the American worker can spend via credit all of the money he makes in thirty years today. This is done with long term loans and rolling credit. Eventually at the end of the day overall inflation is supposed to translate into wealth as people sell their homes and exist the stock market to retire to their second vacation homes.
Well its simply not going to work that way as credit is reduced because of the shrinking of the overall input of core commodities and resources the total amount of future assets that can be created declines.
This directly reduced the amount that can be safely loaned in the future and like a back to the future wave comes back to today in the form of credit defaults as growth stalls and the real economy shrinks.
Whats interesting is for credit its basically a boolean event either your credit worthy and can service your debt or you cannot. Either your capable of taking on more credit or you are not. Regardless of the dance the government plays the intrinsic situation is the same.
--memmel
The new PRC models are pretty good. They won't directly challenge us. From what i see in their media (via my wife, who is Chinese), is that they think we are in terminal decline. They think that once our fiscal troubles force us out of the Pacific, they can slide right in. I think they are on to something...
GDD9000
I don't know what politicians or their aides believe, but I do accept it is possible some of them believe they are doing Keynesian smoothing. I think most politicians and policy makers assume they make little difference. What is important for them is who they reward, and that the public sees them doing something so that they can later make the connection to their actions and eventual success. Shamans in West Africa know what they do is bogus, but they have a following as old as time. The trick is not what you do, but what people see you do. When not pre-occupied, steal steal steal and win the favor of real political power. Lobbyists don't bid on politicians, politicians bid to win the support the parents of lobbyists.
EvilHenryPaulson, thanks that was interesting. I have a more cynical view of Iraq due to a lot of inside baseball at high levels. One day a true look at Bush, Rummy, State Department, and the actual generals who fought the war will be told. The current view now is not very accurate. There were so many missed opportunities because of American arrogance and just plain stupidity.
It seems to me a concerted effort, largely orchestrated by the US. It's very similar to how the UK fell in line with the US economically the past few years, to the destruction of their own economy. They also bought up a lot of our debt, not by accident. There are some politicians who probably know they have not much in the way to offer, the truth is too painful, so they sell a vision, and in the meantime, make sure the right people who are on the real power levers outside of gov (the shadown gov/shadow banking world) keep their power so they can shower more of it upon the incumbent political apparatus. There is a placebo effect that is not limited to shamans, sugar pills, or confidence measures that look like sound policy. It's all a matter of how long you can pull the wool over people's eyes, and see what they do in the meantime to help themselves. Problem is, right now, the blood letting is still happening each day, eg dryfly's wife's company in multiples. As the million more job losses keep piling up, the placebo effect will have to be that much stronger. I keep wondering what tricks they come up with next, and they keep amusing me with new ones. This whole thing reminds me of the rally that ended at the end of last year. All ended ugly.
Regarding your response to my question a few hours ago (trigger for stock mkt collapse), something just crossed my mind. In your comments you mentioned possibly "sovereign debt default" as the trip point.
That made me think, do we know how Turbo-Tim's IRS people fared this past April 15, or still too soon (or 'they' don't want to scare us)? I remember earlier in the year, there seemed to be some chatter about the real chance the fed's tax-collecting business might get hit by the same bus that hit individual income, corporate profits, state & local sales, etc.
I guess saying "might get hit" is a little evasive. More like they WILL get hit. I'd think any lower-than-expected tax revenue will fray a few nerves.
OT: Chinese may want a carrier as a status symbol of having "arrived" as a major world power.
The Soviets neutralized the U.S. Sixth Fleet's carriers in the days before the four U.S. carrier battlegroup arrived off the Israeli coast during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. They placed a cruiser and/or destroyer alongside each U. S. carrier (within 500 yards) prepared to torpedo us if we made any move to launch. No matter what evasive manuevers we took, our carriers could not shake them and put some distance between them and us.
I was thee -- crapping in y pants for three days. Carriers are fine for limited war -- small third world expeditionary operations. A major conflict? Not so survivable anymore.
I'm pretty sure we can track the Chinese subs. That big deal a few months ago with the Chinese Navy harassing a US Navy ship just didn't seem right. A US Navy sub tracking boat turns up in the vicinity of China's submarine base, China sends out a flotilla of crap boats to harass it for half an hour and then leave, never bothering it again? Yeah. Their commanders said to go out and get real close so they have to pay attention to what's going on on the surface, and use a bunch of old noisy boats so the sonar can't hear a damn thing underwater.
We knew that their newest submarine was going to be passing underneath and China was trying to keep us from learning even more about it. How did we know?
Oh, and that 3-page article could be condensed down to 2 paragraphs and still be 2/3rds fluff. Gigantic surface ships have limited utility and are vulnerable. News at 11.
I was just looking at this at dshort.
To the moon, Alice!
I'm not buying a V shaped recovery...
LOL Oprah's Favorite Things.... CONDOS!!! CONDOS FOR EVERYONE!! EVERBODY GETS ONE!!!! MORE IF YOU WANT THEM!!!
Lots of optimism in Spring 1930 as well.
I would buy a double dip, preferably butter pecan...
Does anyone know how much the market is up since that CLOWN Derinnger posted that "nuclear bomb" and related post about the market ready to implode? LOL
Will tank 30% back to previous low by December 2009. Bank on it....errrrr....bet on it.
To the moon, Alice in Wonderland.
Today's gain equaled about two decades worth of gains based on the current 3 month T-bill rate. Yesssss! The CON is coming back to our eCONomy.
38%
Buy the dips, sell the peaks...
Used to be mortgage the house, buy the wife AND girlfriend a new set of peaks.....
Took all my longs off the table today...its just too easy to make money right now in this market!
Does anyone know how much the market is up since that CLOWN Derinnger posted that "nuclear bomb" and related post about the market ready to implode? LOL
I commented on the last thread: I want Karl on John Stewart NOT Cramer. It would be fun.
This is the TOP! Absolutely, Positively the top! If I am wrong there will be people in my family who will mock me for the rest of my life
Here's a good one from last Friday over at Seeking Alpha on why 875 was a top...
Why This Rally Is Unsustainable -- Seeking Alpha
You can get bullish or bearish advice every day, all based on the same data... Psychologically we are tuned to hear stuff that confirms our beliefs...
Looks an awful lot like Twenty Nine this year (2009)
today's close seems to be where we'd be at if we extrapolate 1-12 months. i don't have any fancy technical software to confirm.
Not surprising when one realizes that the actual stock market is not reflective of the actual real economy, but instead simply a market to trade claims on the real economy. one of the reasons i thought we were in for a rally because we're getting momentum investors up AND down, which probably has never been the case during any other recession.
Looked at the SPY chart a hundred ways; simply can't see what made it turn on March 9th.
Yeah, we were oversold, but not even as oversold as last October, or last July.
Maybe you could make the case for some mild divergences, but certainly nothing that would mark a major bottom.
I'd love for someone to show me how they think the SPY chart foretold all this.
Used to be mortgage the house, buy the wife AND girlfriend a new set of peaks..... And you could get a lot more use from those peaks too...
I haven't bought or sold stocks in more than a decade. But I have to admit, that is a seriously rapid and big bounce. Shoulda, woulda.... didn't.
Zack - me too on the charts.... I was pretty sure we would hit 600 on Monday then...
Just realized I had a small XLE position that I bought in Oct (horrible call).still underwater couldn't mind sing it at 50 again for just a second or maybe 49.5?
Today's gain equaled about two decades worth of gains based on the current 3 month T-bill rate. Yesssss! The CON is coming back to our eCONomy.
That sucks, only two decades? Maybe they should drive rates lower... how else shall we make a decent living?
[Yes Virginia - that reply was FULL of snark].
Stocks are valued based upon earnings, and which corporations have made any money lately?
March 9th - may have been margin calls, forced selling... I dunno
Repost from the end of last thread (should have known to wait for a more appropriate thread):
Here are some Goldilocks stock valuations, with PE ratios based on Trailing-Twelve-Month earnings, and based on forward-projected earnings:
Stock -- TTM PE -- Forward PE
Apple -- 24 -- 21
Amazon -- 51 -- 39
Salesforce.com -- 126 -- 55
Google -- 29 -- 17
Priceline.com -- 25 -- 14
WholeFoods -- 31 -- 28
Sears -- 151 -- 143
The last two have large amounts of debt, a characteristic that was being punished only a short two months ago. Those stocks with large amounts of debt are still sporting very expensive put options. Go figure.
Does anyone know how much the market is up since that CLOWN Derinnger posted that "nuclear bomb" and related post about the market ready to implode?
15%.
S&P (2/16): 789.
S&P today: 907
This is the TOP! Absolutely, Positively the top! If I am wrong there will be people in my family who will mock me for the rest of my life
Mockery makes a man strong - embrace it!
Crispycole
Prepare to sell your longs! IMOthis will be the final slow downturn. We will hit go down and stay down this time.
"I commented on the last thread: I want Karl on John Stewart NOT Cramer. It would be fun. "
This Derringer guy had no problem slamming the bulls, realtors, etc...for being dead wrong, where is his Mea Culpa? How much money did his "nuclear bomb" call cost people?
This reminds me of the oil price run-up actually.
We should have gone down to SP600 in 2003 low rates saved it IMO and we will need to over correct this time
but of course, shorting 789 to the low of 666 would have returned 15.5%
AMF - I think it's more like - stocks are valued on the expectation of future earnings... 1st quarter was not as bad as expected and guidance forward was better than expected... plus we found out that the bailout of AIG really was a transfer payment to several big banks, some of them here... so bank earnings were way better than expected... Huff and Puff - until the Fed runs out of gas...
From a technical standpoint, this is what's known as your classic "Buttcheeks" formation, and notice how we're getting ready to nosedive down the left ...
crispyandcole,
Come on over to the short side!
(It is your destiny, son.)
Dryfly,
It does suck. Perhaps I should have pointed our that today's gain equaled a lifetime of gains based on the 1 month T-bill rate.
As long as we don't divide by zero, everything should be fine. Even negative interest rates should get the CON back in the eCONomy. No zero rates though. That would kill the quant models.
Tim - you think the market can go down while the fed can still buy all the tbonds?
Wall Street's got Potemkin earnings, which allows for Pavlovian reinforcement, nice doggie.
Shadow
Agree stocks price in Trajectory as much as capital, brand power etc.
Exhibit A is MSFT still making money as when it was 60 per share but growth has slowed and we find it closer to 20 now.
Fed divides by zero - economy gets the blue screen...
Incindentally - I forgot to add - the ECB does not have a mandate for full employment as the fed does - only to hold inflation to 2%
Shadow
I think that the market is pricing in a "return to normal". The FED buying bonds cannot extend small business and consumer lending or student loans.
Well, the quants are getting killed too. Reading about market neutral strategies down 15, 20% in April.
Every asset class is intercorrelated to a degree not seen in years.
My guess for the multitude who don't care: This little rally may run for another 1000-1500 pts (DJIA), but WATCH OUT at 10k! When the retirees and boomers still trapped in this mess see 5 digits scroll across the ticker, to the exits they all will run... and fast!
Everyone... EVERYONE... I talk to in the off line world is seeing dandelions and butterflies and blue skies of recovery right now. Psychology is a powerful thing...
Incindentally - I forgot to add - the ECB does not have a mandate for full employment as the fed does - only to hold inflation to 2%
They also have cradle to grave welfare state safety net... who cares if you're unemployed in Ireland - get to hit the pub early. As for France, Italy & Spain woo hoo beaches & babes too.
To Infinity and Beyond . . .
I just have to imagine the Treasury and Fed and Administration are puckered tight at this unforeseeable consequence. What makes Fifth Third worth 450% more than 6 weeks ago? They'll be lucky if circuit breakers are sufficient to contain this.
If sheeple idiot money starts coming in, this thing could defy all logic and keep going up. Lots of cash sitting on the sidelines, and people who still believe in 'long term investing,' 'dollar cost averaging,' and similar magical thinking.
No top until either Friday or next Monday. But the resistance levels are getting closer and closer together so don't expect much up-side either. The stress test is meaningless for this market but the Unemployment numbers on Friday may be too bad to ignore. There is a chance of a 9 handle.
Fed is not directly supporting small biz and consumers yet - still counting on the regional banks for that... But the fed has been buying up tbonds which supports congressional spending, and that money is flowing directly into the economy... Incidentally here is where some of our tax dollars are going - sounds like a good cause...
Fox Nation falsely claims "Obama Spending $400K to Studying Drinking and Sex Habits of Gays in Argentina" | Media Matters for America
"Wall Street's got Potemkin earnings, which allows for Pavlovian reinforcement, nice doggie."
~~~~
absolutely correct ... wish I would have said it ...
Everyone... EVERYONE... I talk to in the off line world is seeing dandelions and butterflies and blue skies of recovery right now.
I guess you don't know anyone in Ohio or Michigan? I'm hearing a very different story from back home.
Suspension of disbelief used to be Hollywood's ace in the hole, but it appears to be wholly Wall Street's now
Basel Too - are you sure? I would have bet his call was near the 666 mark?
If the fed actually releases the stress tests on thursday, there could be a 'sell on the news' event...
Shadow the TALF could be used to buy up those loans not sure if it already has.
scone,
Too many people are afraid of having someone in their immediate family face long term unemployment. In that context, there will not be a rush of day trader money. Meanwhile, pension funds are not increasing risk and are delaying contributions if possible because of parent company troubles. Also, many employers that have a private pension plan are also furloughing/laying off workers such that there are fewer contributions
I haven't paid much attention to the financial media, but I did become sick of the phrase "green shoots"
What does real life tell you? I smell argentina.
scone --
Exactly right. I am convinced it will keep going up until my co-worker who sold at Dow 6600 buys back in.
JP Morgan announced today that they will sell 5 billion in bonds based on credit card payment cash flow - anybody want some of those???? I'm sticking with my GNMA's....
ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 3:47 pm reply Ignore user
... But the fed has been buying up tbonds which supports congressional spending, and that money is flowing directly into the economy...
The money has been going into keeping state and municipal bloodsuckers still sucking the blood of citizens. The result of much of this spending has had a negative stimulus.
Fed is not buying very many bonds. FOMC authorized $300 billion but treasury is sell SFP for $200 billion and purchases so far are not even offsetting that. Fed policy is very tight for current conditions. They should be buying more bonds but everyone is talking inflation (which is crazy) so the Fed is likely to err on the side of too tight policy. Hopefully they will realize their mistake quickly when the next downward lurch occurs.
C+C:
RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process - Updated (11:47 PM) - The Market Ticker
dated 2/16. i read that as a coordinated short by numerous hedgies playing off the nationalization fears, even to the extent of planting people on blogs. from now on, the hedgies, shorts and long, are going to exaggerate movement on both directions.
but today's closing looks to be a near extrapolation of 1-12 month decline.
Looked at the SPY chart a hundred ways; simply can't see what made it turn on March 9th.
Yeah, we were oversold, but not even as oversold as last October, or last July.
Maybe you could make the case for some mild divergences, but certainly nothing that would mark a major bottom.
I'd love for someone to show me how they think the SPY chart foretold all this.
For folks it's called doubling down. Don't discounts all that money being printed to buy equities. It's the easiest way to fund the banks. First they make money buying up paper then they sell some more of their own paper in a "hot" market. Then...
Helicopter is the stock buyer of last resort. He will continue to inject money for stocks or bonds to keep his buddies at GS in business.
This rally is nothing more than the fed trying to prop up stocks, housing, cars, and anything American.
All this buying by the fed will be for naught as treasury rates continue to climb wiping out any potential for refinancing both real estate and corporate debt.
The only buying in US Treasuries is the fed. How long can this last! My guess maybe another month at most.
Elmo is taking it in four different orifices right now.
1) Those who believe that the market is turning and we're going to have a bull run
2) Those who believe that hyperinflation is right around the corner and want to protect themselves with equities
3) Financials/government who want the banks to recap via equity offerings (hence expansion of POMOs). See GS trading activity.
4) Shorts/Quants getting blown to smithereens, margin calls, etc.
The perfect storm.
OptionArmageddon found this quotable opinion from Merrill: "You know it’s a low quality rally when the top 50 most heavily shorted stocks are the ones that outperform the most – up 28% in April, an 1,860 basis point spread over the broad equity market."
Zero Hedge: CMSA Tipping Its Hand Over General Growth Properties
It looked like the Fed was trying to hold the 10 year at 3% for a while, but then last week they let it drift up...
Exactly right. I am convinced it will keep going up until my co-worker who sold at Dow 6600 buys back in.
Please let us know.
It is like a snake eating it's own tail.
Elmo is taking it in four different orifices right now.
1) Those who believe that the market is turning and we're going to have a bull run
2) Those who believe that hyperinflation is right around the corner and want to protect themselves with equities
3) Financials/government who want the banks to recap via equity offerings (hence expansion of POMOs). See GS trading activity.
4) Shorts/Quants getting blown to smithereens, margin calls, etc.
The perfect storm.
Markets crash up, markets crash down.
Well I was a buyer last June and October, but did not buy in March 2009.... So far I have been wrong on that one but I am still getting my gnma yield of close to 5%... If we got to 600 I would increase my stock allocation by half, if we got to 400 I would do it again...
Nemo, scone,
There was some buy in for a week or two, but there are too many people liquidating
TrimTabs Trial Request
This is a highly managed rally. It can only continue while it is not disturbed
Stock Market Indicators
1) The projected budget deficit for 2009 is $2 trillion
2) The debt-drowned United States debt is already 350 percent of G.D.P and rising fast !
3) The Fed is now holding $10 Trillion of ‘assets’ ( mostly toxic ) transferred from too big to fail banks.
4) Other countries are now buying less of our debt
Yup I agree CR this puts the recent rally into perspective.
Bear markets are notorious for financially ruining both the bulls and the bears. This current bear is no exception, especially with the fed, CONgress and the Treasury ignoring the laws of the land.
I am sticking with fed and bankster conspiracy plus momentum. Suckers are coming fast. How nimble can you be?
Lots of cash sitting on the sidelines, and people who still believe in 'long term investing,' 'dollar cost averaging,' and similar magical thinking.
Plenty of buy-and-holders still out there, no doubt, but did they ever take their money out to begin with?
Anybody know where to get up-to-date earnings figures for the S&P (for trailing twelve months)?
As the Porkulus money gets out to the masses it will look pretty good for a while, then when that runs out things will slow down again and there will be renewed calls for more stimulus..... probably by the congress right before the 2010 elections.... also dont forget there is some census fraud about to happen which will be used to gerrymander the districts some more trying to keep the Democrats in power... and since there has been no structural change in the laws to encourage business, the economy will become more and more dependent on the Feds printing power... If anything happens to that then a really sharp correction of some kind is in the works... I keep hearing people saying that Obama will be the 'last' president.... What if there really was a systemic failure? Could the USA break up into smaller parts? Could we wind up with martial law or a military dictatorship? I dunno - wait and see...
Kudlow is bloviating on the blooming buds of recovery...
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 6:59 pm
This is a highly managed rally. It can only continue while it is not disturbed.
__
EHP,
So what's the trip wire/or wires?
What's gonna bring us down to the next 'new' resistance pt?
@km4:
Where is the Fed holding $10 Trillion of assets? Is it in your house that they've been hiding that stuff?
People talk about the government spending multiple trillions of dollars but if they were the economy would be have way more cash than I see any evidence of .
Lots of cash sitting on the sidelines, and people who still believe in 'long term investing,' 'dollar cost averaging,' and similar magical thinking.
Plenty of buy-and-holders still out there, no doubt, but did they ever take their money out to begin with?
No. They left it and funded their 401k. Maybe in the long run they are right. Most people aren't dealing with a ton of money. This thing is being run by the machine. Money for everyone. Pump and Pump and dump. You get a mortgage. Here you get a credit card.
It worked before. This time I am scared.
SP500 earnings link - but they are usually behind the current...
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,1,5,0,0,0,0,0.html
I thought that I read the current Fed balance sheet is around 2 trillion but they have guaranteed about another 12 trillion which they might have to pony up...
Ned Riley says "they have to get on the train."
Will they get free showers when we get there?
@ Rajesh I assume you know how to use the Internet so do your own research sucker !
Showers and CONDOS!! CONDOS FOR EVERYBODY!!!
So what's the trip wire/or wires?
What's gonna bring us down to the next 'new' resistance pt?
You won't be the first to know.
So what's the trip wire/or wires?
public pension reform is going to have a huge effect. audits should be due at the end of the fiscal year.
And gorging himself
GDP of 14 trillion in 2008 when people still had HELOC's and credit cards with available credit - lot of that is gone... lot of layoffs since then too... GDP for this year without Porkulus and the Obama budget would be about 12.5 trillion probably - but with the extra spending gdp will probably come in closer to 15 trillion this year - make it look good going into the election, Mr. Potemkin...
I got out of my miniscule rally running with the bulls position on Friday because I was too scared that the news on the flu outbreak would suddenly turn worse this weekend. Instead, it turns better. So, I miss another 10% up on the airlines. That's ok. Im ok with that. I really am. And now, I prepare to short. I will miss the first day of the next leg down, then enter. Until then, I will sideline for the rest of any of what is left of this rabid bull. He will die in the streets, running, scared, delusional.
Keep in mind, as long as we are the world's policeman, we were never collapsing. Our military will be funded by buying our bonds and funding the walmart/warrior class for at least 10 more years.
ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 4:07 pm reply Ignore user
Showers and CONDOS!! CONDOS FOR EVERYBODY!!!
Showers first then CONDOS. Your pony is in the parking structure on the other side of those smoke stacks.
ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 7:03 pm
"... and since there has been no structural change in the laws to encourage business"
If anything, after Obama's speech this morning it's sounding like we be seeing a much more hostile environment towards business forthcoming.
GDD - quote from Jeff Macke "Here's how you know when to sell the airlines. If the market is open, you sell the airlines..."
What did Obama say this morning? I missed it... probably sleeping in like a borgeoise slob...
Take a look at chinese stock futures. When that bubble blows. Kaaaaaabooooooommmmmm
11
Your pony is a FOC('d) Pelosi...
Trip wire might be Wednesday May 20th when the Federal government announces a temporary backstop program to help the fundamentally sound State of California through a short term liquidity crisis.
Hi Evil! I was thinking of wage slave 401k and Roth money, the 'captive' stuff where you have to do something with it, and money markets, T-bills, etc. don't cut the mustard. I agree, not so much day trader type money in this "fluffy bunny" rally.
Heck, if I didn't read CR and hang around with you all, I'd probably be stupid enough to move our 401k out of cash. OTOH, it's not always wise to bet against the thundering herd, which is getting a strong 'the crisis is over now, the markets are stabilized' message from the PTB.
And then there's my BIL in Australia who wants to 'get back in the American market, because prices are so cheap.' Sigh. I don't know what to tell the guy.
Yeah, I know it feels really artificial. But do we have anything other than a Goldman conspiracy theory to explain why the S&P has had a 40% move?
Samdog IMO Obama's speech was good ( if he backs it up with action not just talk ) because we need to collect taxes of overseas earnings but this does not condone Obama's deal with Wall St i.e. I provide you with trillions in bailout $$$ and in return you pump up the market ( the ole lipstick on the pig ) to create illusion of change and false economic prosperity
Rob Dawg! --There you are ... 'splain me somethin' like Ricky used to say.
Tell me the story behind this "tinfoil hat" business. I seem to always come in for the punch line and miss the joke.
Thanks in advance.
Really I rather admire the way the Chinese responded to the slowdown... As soon as the factories started having problems and laying people off, they put out a huge infrastructure program to give those workers a place to go - and it didnt take any session of congress to get it done, which is to their advantage... Not that I am advocating that we should have a dictatorship though - I still like those pesky elections even if they are fraudulent...
Notice the impeccable timing of these events by Obama team with shuck and jive !
Hey beavis - he said "Fundamentally sound state of California"...
shuck and jive = Not the whole truth or manipulating something to get it your way.
Tens of millions of ordinary Americans were living like millioniares. All that debt will not be paid back. And much of the debt that is paid back, will be at a much lower interest rate than anticipated.
Too many have spent too much. The faux prosperity from excessive debt is long gone. All shams end in tears. Some sooner, some later.
ZackAttack,
Let's not get ahead of ourselves...it's only been 36.1% move for the S&P, and that's from 666, the intraday low. From the low closing price (675) we're only up 34.4%, by my calculations...
"CLOWN derringer"
Is that a small fire arm carried underneath the wig of a zany?
Uh oh....
Taliban Challenges Pakistan Army on Home Turf as Battle Widens - Bloomberg.com
Is this where they keep the nukes?
ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 4:12 pm reply Ignore user
What did Obama say this morning? I missed it... probably sleeping in like a borgeoise slob...
He said "new taxes, more taxes and promised close loopholes."
Notice the impeccable timing of these events by Obama team with shuck and jive !
You mean shuck and awe. Awe shucks.
RD
Good summary. Hire a good accountant and the gov't is your friend
"I just have to imagine the Treasury and Fed and Administration are puckered tight at this unforeseeable consequence."
Unforeseeable? I am pretty sure they engineered it.
At least the first 150 S&P points, after that, it was like getting a car rolling downhill.
Samdog,
I hate to speculate without even looking through the economic calendar, or considering the fallout from the auto industry reduction in force, or the cumulative effect of many local government cuts. It could end tomorrow, it could last until year end. Just like the rally in oil, which had deeper roots in reality, it will end by someone's arbitrary choice that will swing the momentum and build up rapidly. Oil could have stayed at $150 per barrel until the economy faltered or Saudi Arabia's new fields came on stream in October, but at $147.50 someone's arbitrary action was large enough to swing the balance.
Without putting any work into it, I would say the hard limit would be this August. Could begin anywhere from a sovereign default, to a foreign equity market decline, to a domestic bond default. They are all intertwined at this point given how low bank, and other major players, excess assets are.
Would hope that a UK default doesn't immediately trigger covering inter-bank lending guarantees, private position liquidation, and general panic. I don't think any inner circle countries will fail this year, we've already formally committed at the top to a binary choice of status quo and steep failure. Will need to see the poor economy eat away from the ground up. In the mean time there are plenty of disposable countries
I can tell you that earnings and the real economy will not recover in 2009, and that all positions which implicitly back the assertion of a 2nd half recovery are simply bogus.
Po'temkin Village
goadam at first blush I saw your post as 'shock and awe' which is expunged from my phraseology after abuse by Bush the dunce.
because we need to collect taxes of overseas earnings but this does not condone Obama's deal
Like I posted before. Many of the MNCs now earn more money abroad than domestic. If earnings abroad are taxed contemporaneously, as opposed to when repatriated, what prevents a company from moving the domicile international and constructing an American subsidiary?
ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 7:12 pm
What did Obama say this morning? I missed it ...
Actually nothing new -- pretty much what he's be saying since the primaries. Tax businesses, tax the "wealthy", transfer wealth -- you know, Robinhood-In-Chief philosophy.
He warned us and he's doing it. Interesting that only a tiny dose of that poison killed Dukakis in '88.
I should have known - tax hikes... That will be a good thing.... For the countries where more companies choose to relocate their incorporation...
If this was the 1970's you would probably be getting a free condo with a fillup at Shell - instead of a water glass... or double green stamps...
"Don't discounts all that money being printed to buy equities. It's the easiest way to fund the banks."
I actually think it was meant to fund the life insurers. They are very exposed to the equity markets, and the govt had no money (or authority) to bail them all out directly. So they did it indirectly.
Samdog (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 4:14 pm reply Ignore user
Rob Dawg! --There you are ... 'splain me somethin' like Ricky used to say.
Tell me the story behind this "tinfoil hat" business. I seem to always come in for the punch line and miss the joke.
Thanks in advance.
Old joke that predates Gore's invention of the internet. Tinfoil hats keep out the brain controlling radio waves.
ShadowInventory (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 4:16 pm reply Ignore user
Hey beavis - he said "Fundamentally sound state of California"...
I love it when a meme takes hold. Broward, are you listening?
The Governator once said "The rich have legs too..."
"Is this where they keep the nukes?"
Would you expect a nuclear weapons armory to have an illuminated sign on the outside, with an arrow in neon?
I think the state of California drove out all the Fundamentalists a long time ago...
I think the meltdown of California will be the wake-up call. If the states aren't given abundant free money, the rif at all gov't levels (save federal) will be stunning to even those not directly affected.
"Really I rather admire the way the Chinese responded to the slowdown..."
~~~
The Chinese actually manage their economy to produce goods ...
We manage our economy to produce phantom wealth ...
I dont even know where the nukes are in this country... but I would expect that some would be at the base in Missouri where the B2's are housed...
Incidentally, what do the Chinese intend to do with an aircraft carrier?
what prevents a company from moving the domicile international and constructing an American subsidiary?
~~~~
Nothing, Halliburton already did that ...
Bermuda is the home of many companies ...
Keep your eye on this chart. Stocks are in a false rally because of the moritorium on foreclosures which ended 3/31 has masked the huge amount of foreclosures coming this year and next.
reset graph
scone,
What the TrimTabs report shows does include the 401k and Roth contributions, as well as any other money invested into US equity mutual funds (just one of the categories)
I haven't tallied it recently, but probably $400bn to $500bn has been withdrawn in the last year. Consider it substitution for credit cards and MEW
I would be more at ease if private money had been returning to US equity markets, because that would mean the rally managers would see it worthwhile to close out their positions, which would mean the re-pricing of assets could continue, which would mean we would be closer to the end. I'm not so much a bear, as I want to see things brought to their conclusion and the restoration of a modicum of logic when it comes to valuation and planning decisions.
Thanks EHP, I know it's "a known unknown" as The Donald (Rumsfeld) put it.
This gives me something to chew on.
omg. I haven't looked at SKF in a while. Volatility has taken it to 47?! geez...
RE: California
The Los Angeles Unified School District issued 5400 notices of potential layoff. This is an organized, rich, state and nationally supported group and if the election results reflect the polls on May 20th those 5400 will not be enough. Of course the federal government will step in.
It will be interesting to see small municipality bonds squeezed out of the marketplace.
I remember an old tv show where they were interviewing a Russian guy who had received a long sentence in Florida for drug smuggling - he was connected to the Colombian cartel... He was talking about the cartel wanted to get a big submarine to smuggle drugs up here so this guy called someone he knew in the Russian Navy... and said "Let me ask you a really stupid question. Would it be possible to buy a Russian nuclear submarine?" and the Russian Navy guy says "Would that be with missles, or without missles?"
Want missles with that?
"omg. I haven't looked at SKF in a while. Volatility has taken it to 47?! geez... "
I wouldn't even say it's been volatility. More like a nosedive straight down from the ugly tree.
"I dont even know where the nukes are in this country... but I would expect that some would be at the base in Missouri where the B2's are housed..."
I once had a chat for a few hours with a Missouri farmer, one of whose wheat fields had been partially appropriated for a MmII silo.
After a while he said: "Wanna see it?' So we drove over in his pick-up and saw it. Big concrete slab, motion sensors, chain link fence, surrounded by June wheat. He was none too pleased by the appropriation. His brother had a pig farm-factory across the road, which the farmer seemed to think was a foolish investment.
September / School / University is an economically significant point whether or not Cali can fund them at the time or not. If they can fund them, that is bad news for their balance sheet. If they can't fund them, that means layoffs, and bad news for the household's balance sheet. Income and debt always reconcile, one way or another. A new interpretation of «o plata o plomo» if you will allow it
California will be the first of many states to go under ...
Unemployment and Medicaide will kill them ...
Then there are those pensions ... underwater ... guranteed by the state ...
That mortgage reset chart looks really scary if you are a congressperson looking at the 2010 election...
"Would it be possible to buy a Russian nuclear submarine?" and the Russian Navy guy says "Would that be with missles, or without missles?"
Want missles with that? "
Early in the 90s it was supposed to be possible to buy an SS-20 warhead for 85,000 bucks, cash and carry.
Many are the folktales.
Hmmm people making 401k withdrawals - that might also explain the consumer spending increase.... talk about kicking the can down the road... You hit 55 with no retirement savings, the world dont look so rosy any more...
The Chinese want an aircraft carrier to project power and supplant us as the policeman in the Pacific Ocean. Their goal (publicly stated) is to dominate out to the second island chain (past Japan) by 2030. And they'll do it.
September / School / University is an economically significant point whether or not Cali can fund them
CALStrs should chip in. It's ironic that one's present employment may be jeopardized to ensure the viability of one's retirement.
85k for a nuke - way below the build cost... We should have bought them up instead of building our own... Actually I think I remember some rumors that we were doing exactly that to keep them off the terror bazaar
SIBEL EDMONDS: In Congress We Trust...Not
The former FBI translator and whistleblower suggests blackmail may be at the heart of Congressional refusal to bring accountability and oversight to its own members - such as both Hastert and Harman - in matters of espionage and national security
I have been known to quote long-dead men in my past writings. Whether eloquently expressed thoughts by our founding fathers, or those artfully expressed by ancient Greek thinkers, these quotes have always done a better job starting or ending my thoughts - that tend to be expressed in long winding sentences. For this piece I am going to break with tradition and start with an appropriate quote from a living current senator, John Kerry: "It's a sad day when you have members of Congress who are literally criminals go undisciplined by their colleagues. No wonder people look at Washington and know this city is broken."
The people do indeed look at Washington and know that this city is 'badly' broken, Senator Kerry. The public confidence in our Congress has been declining drastically. Recent poll results highlight how the American people's trust in their Congress has hit rock bottom. A survey of progressive blogs easily confirms the rage rightfully directed at our Congress for abdicating its role of oversight and accountability.
The BRAD BLOG : SIBEL EDMONDS: In Congress We Trust...Not
But not just in matters of espionage and national security e.g. collusion with Wall St. etc etc etc
Most Americans had better get a new dream and fast !
So the $85k SS-20 exists in the same universe as the $17 government surplus jeep?
What do you think are the implications for China with aircraft carriers? Colonial aspirations or self defense (against who?) Offensive intent against ???
"85k for a nuke - way below the build cost."
I read the story in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists years ago. The warhead was supposedly in the basement of a building in Moscow. Was there a weapon inside the warhead? Doubt it. You can see what one of those warheads looks like at the Air & Space Museum in DC. Astonishing how small it is for such a payload. IIRC, 200,000 k.
anecdotal:
NYC has many hotels. Prices from travel search engines show price cuts of 30 to 50% in good hotels/locations for this June.
China just wants to be the us of 50 years ago, good luck with that.
goadam at first blush I saw your post as 'shock and awe' which is expunged from my phraseology after abuse by Bush the dunce.
Gotcha. Obama may have better goals on some issues but he illusions are the same.
I never understood how William Jefferson retained his seat after the FBI got their cash back out of his deep freeze...
@Evil, thanks for the TrimTabs info! I wasn't sure what I was looking at. The charts I'm seeing are for the mid-April time frame-- so can we know what the inflow/outflow picture looks like for the last 3 weeks?
AMF - that reminds me of the USSR building 10,000 B29 clones after they captured the 'Hap Arnold' plane - right as we were building B52's
Samdog IMO Obama's speech was good ( if he backs it up with action not just talk ) because we need to collect taxes of overseas earnings but this does not condone Obama's deal with Wall St i.e. I provide you with trillions in bailout $$$ and in return you pump up the market ( the ole lipstick on the pig ) to create illusion of change and false economic prosperity
I give you a few trillion and then I tax you a few billion. Trillion is still more.
km4
Senator Durbin on the banks and the Senate ...
"They own the place."
"Obama may have better goals on some issues but [his]illusions are the same."
I wouldn't be too confident about knowing anyone's illusions.
Communism on rise in recession-hit Japan
BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Communism on rise in recession-hit Japan
However, the USA has nothing to worry about because we put drugs in the drinking water and feed constant bullshit disinformation to the American populace most of whom do not understand it or just take it at face value.
The Chinese want an aircraft carrier to project power and supplant us as the policeman in the Pacific Ocean. Their goal (publicly stated) is to dominate out to the second island chain (past Japan) by 2030. And they'll do it.
a whole lot of bonds to sell between now and 2030. Enjoy it. Many boomers dead by then, so genx holds the turd bag on dollar collapse.
That mortgage reset chart looks really scary if you are a congressperson looking at the 2010 election... - SI
Yes, the PTB are highly motivated to make the whole magical fluffy bunny recovery look real. There will be pixie dust and glitter, and a willing suspension of disbelief, and so on until victory is declared.
There are dummy atomic bombs at the Air Force museum in Dayton too - even the first ones were not all that big, and then they shrunk like crazy... How many in a Polaris now? 10? 12? Each one independently targeted.... Incidentally the missle is also booby trapped just in case someone tries to tamper with it, launch it unauthorized etc...
mmckinl yes saw that last week....Durbin one of the few that still has integrity to tell it like it really is
The Chinese want an aircraft carrier to project power and supplant us as the policeman in the Pacific Ocean. Their goal (publicly stated) is to dominate out to the second island chain (past Japan) by 2030. And they'll do it.
Bad word choice. Seems like a lot of the same nonsense for 30 years. Stem cells or no stem cells.
@ goadam....Gotcha. Obama may have better goals on some issues but his illusions are the same.
Yes evidently it appears that way !
Wouldn't most any sizable surface ship be a sitting duck, with technology allowing it's adversaries to track it's whereabouts and press a button that unleashes a missile that doesn't miss?
That's an unusual breakout since the bottom.
It broke the lower low rule and the volatility is much smaller.
The 56.8% loss could actually be a bottom.
The double bottom (double top) is often an indicator of trend reversal.
I wouldn't short this market.
Basel Too,
Ironic, I'm not sure about that. It's union politics, cronyism, seniority. The problem has never been unions per se, it has been that standard union organization or management in the American/Canadian context has been all wrong. It is not responsive to its members, or to its employer. They are designed in a way where the only objective is getting re-elected within the union, and to keep as many union members as possible paying dues.
Unions can encourage increased productivity, and good working conditions. However, instead of supporting beneficent feedback and communication, they are likely to disrupt it. No different from say, the board of directors for Tyco or AOL or Lehman. The problem isn't that there is a government, union, or corporation — it is how they are run and to what result
shadowinv - that is a pretty funny quote on the airlines. In the long run, yeh, Im with him on it. But I can assure you there was a LOT of money to be made in the last month, and the little scare on the flu didnt do much to take it away. I was just afraid it would, so I left the casino a bit early. The smoke was getting to me anyway.
My belief in this rally goes along with what goadam said : this is a great way to fund the banks...make believe invented rally built on nothing but its own circuitous logic.
Commies in Japan - sounds like their educational system is failing too - learn from history or repeat the mistakes... That guy who is reading Marx needs to get a copy of The Animal Farm...
It must be those green shoots ! above 10000 by the end of next week ? Recession's over at last...phew..
I just hope reality doesn't hit anytime soon...
GDD - lots of people got way rich by selling too early - Rothschilds, Buffett...
If this economy was a person, it would be a meth addict...
"Commies in Japan "
~~~~
China's Commies seem to be doing OK ...
If the car companies were a person, they would be Generalissmo Francisco Franco... "His situation is stable"
If you rely on big block trades to temporarily overwhelm the market and drive the price up, perhaps it is rally with very thin support in numbers and money
"Wouldn't most any sizable surface ship be a sitting duck"
Not exactly.
The prototype of these was part of my MOS, although I only watched training tapes, never handled them.
YouTube - 20mm Phalanx CIWS, Navy Weapons
4500 rounds per minute, 20mm == about one inch in diameter.
It's awesome to watch an A-7 tear up a tank with a very similar gun.
Some of the people do well under all govt systems... But as Friedman said, "The most people will be the best off with the least government"... With the outcome of recent elections, it's clear that in a democracy the electorate can be manipulated to their detriment and that works best when their level of education is the lowest... I've never lived under a dictatorship - somehow people still function - but it doesnt look too good from the outside...
Green Shoots, in and out heartbreak! Abdul-Jabbar gets the rebound and is fouled. He'll go to the line shooting 2.
RE: the post on Chinese aircraft carriers
Not sure how of this is true but interesting read
The War Nerd: This Is How the Carriers Will Die
The War Nerd: This Is How the Carriers Will Die (Updated Version) - By Gary Brecher - The eXiled
mmmmmm Phalanx.... R2D2 with teeth...
ShadowInventory did you read the article ?
Phalanx vs Dong Feng 21
Dong Feng 21employs a complex guidance system, low radar signature and a maneuverability that makes its flight path unpredictable, the odds that it can evade tracking systems to reach its target are increased. It is estimated that the missile can travel at mach 10 and reach its maximum range of 2000km in less than 12 minutes.”
Like I said not sure how much of this is accurate.
Protection against ballistic missles - portable tracking radar - looks kind of like a floating oil platform with a big radome on it... stationed in alaska..
US Missile Defence completes Target Tracking and Radar Exercise | Frontier India Strategic and Defence - News, Analysis, Opinion - Aviation, Military, Commodity, Energy, Transportation, Conflict, Environment, Intelligence, Internal Security
shadowinv - that is a pretty funny quote on the airlines. In the long run, yeh, Im with him on it. But I can assure you there was a LOT of money to be made in the last month, and the little scare on the flu didnt do much to take it away. I was just afraid it would, so I left the casino a bit early. The smoke was getting to me anyway.
My belief in this rally goes along with what goadam said : this is a great way to fund the banks...make believe invented rally built on nothing but its own circuitous logic.
Doesn't mean i am not stupid enough or smart enough to have money in it. 2003 to 2007 was nice. How long is this "bull" market? A week? A year? Give me an explanation of this besides reflation? Give me an investment.
Yes Phalanx is more of a defense against aircraft and aircraft launched missles - not ballistic missles... Ballistic missle need to be countered with another missle - something like the Patriot only longer range..
RE: the post on Chinese aircraft carriers
Not sure how of this is true but interesting read
The War Nerd: This Is How the Carriers Will Die
The War Nerd: This Is How the Carriers Will Die (Updated Version) - By Gary Brecher - The eXiled
What are they going to do about our force fields or space lasers or laser cats?
What does China need with armaments ?
The US is shooting itself in the foot ...
China can build armaments when it needs them ...
Napoleon : Don't interfere with your enemy when they are committing suicide ...
Isn't it about time for Greenspan to utter some obfuscation again?
Phalanx is far from perfect but I seriously doubt any missile could "weave" and dodge fast enough to survive 75 rounds per second. Speed and maneuverability are inversely related. To dodge requires a slower speed, which makes it an easier target in some respects.
I'm not a big fan of carriers, I spent too much time reading The Great Reckoning which is largely based on the projection of force. If I remember correctly, Davidson predicted that a great deal of the current U.S. military would ultimately be costly & useless in the next war. I can see that with ICBM's and carriers.
Truthfully I never really know where the market is going - I do a lot of analysis and have an opinion, but it doesnt always work. I use an asset allocation method which basically forces you to sell high and buy low, except that I am normally always buying without selling - basically I am building an asset to pass on to the next generation, normally not consuming anything out of the portfolio. For example, you could go 40% gnma bond fund, and 60% total stock index etf... Then when the allocation gets out of alignment, say bonds have reached 45% and stocks have reached 55% you rebalance - sell some bonds and buy more stocks... That's the simplest way to do it. You may or may not hit the pivot points, and this does not protect you from the big cliff dive we have had, but overall you come out better because you are really not putting your chips on a single square.
Notice I have no debt, live a pretty frugal and muted lifestyle, and save money every month out of a pretty small income. The actual method I use is more complicated than above using sector funds and I also hold some individual stocks but I count that allocation in the appropriate sector.
The Capital Steps comedy vocal group has a song called Mr. Greenspan to the tune of Mr. Sandman...
Mr. Greenspan,
Give me a clue,
I've got some money,
dont know what to do...
Elmo's dead & buried.
I read a lot of r&d stuff and the US military has a lot of 'special projects' that use new technologies which boggle the mind. The use of UAVs are the first public acknowledgment of where we are headed. I am sure many of you have seen the video of the robot dog. Those are being tested this summer in Afghanistan with weapon packs. But these are small projects. Think about floating weapon platforms in the sky that are invisible, unmanned, and can ionize targets with microwaves(assumption, real technology not revealed in brief). I think the US still has plenty of tricks up its sleeve to stay number one, but we are projecting weakness. Is this real, on purpose, moving us toward hegemony? I don't know...but it is frustrating trying to figure out where we are going.
Eh assets - I also own some real estate and I have some allocation to commodities via DBA and DBC and GSG... When your portfolio grows to the proper size you should always have something in all asset classes - in other words never take an asset class to zero... If you want to do more market timing you can change the asset class allocation - for example if the sp500 was to go to 400, I would be looking to get my stocks allocation from 35% to 65%... and I can do that because I wont have to sell if I'm wrong...
Really OT but...John McPhee wrote "The Curve of Binding Energy", one of my favorite books, about a Cal Tech. graduate student in the physics dept. who couldn't or didn't want to write his PhD dissertation. Instead his advisor got him a job designing atomic bombs at Los Alamos. He was very good at it and McPhee is equally good at writing about it. Great read. The book reminded me of "The Right Stuff".[Get the 1974 edition because it has the steps for converting enriched uranium hexafluoride gas into fissionable uranium using common chemistry lab equipment (does require a vacuum oven and enriched gas, however).]
Rob Dawg,
Thanks for the follow up RE tinfoil hat retail outlet and repair centers. I was sure that if anyone knew, it would be you.
Also, I saw you response to my trigger question--you and EHP appear to share common ground regarding the major state financial collapse scenario.
To show my appreciation, here's a reprise of my Haiku in response to the exchange below; seems relevant to your remark about meme possession and Browa - - ---well, I won't mention names (heh, heh):
Samdog (profile) wrote on Sat, 5/2/2009 - 12:29 am
metabear (profile) wrote on Fri, 5/1/2009 - 11:43 pm
"bearly: Let's not forget, Obama, the community-organizer-in chief, is in WAY over his head."
metabear: this seems to be the only reason you visit this site. to endlessly repeat this meme. do you have another shtick?
Haiku Meditation:
His meme is his shtick
Not very clever? Perhaps
Look--see O submerged!
wow. GOOG is gonna be the new microsoft.
first the DOJ is investigating them for antitrust regarding online book searches.
now the FTC is going after them under antitrust regarding AAPL.
did larry page and sergey brin not give enough to the BO campaign.
Wonder what the true cost is to run a carrier over it's lifetime - we might not have a name for a number that big..
Al Gore is on the GOOG board too..
Everyone... EVERYONE... I talk to in the off line world is seeing dandelions and butterflies and blue skies of recovery right now.
I guess you don't know anyone in Ohio or Michigan? I'm hearing a very different story from back home.
They laid off at my wife's office today - she is a manager and had to let ~4 go out of the 20 or so she supervises.
This was their third lay off wave... round one they let go those who didn't do their job well and didn't get along... she had no problem with that round, kind of looked forward to it. They were her problem children. Round two it was those who didn't do their job well OR didn't get along... that was tougher. This wave every one of them was a good employee and a good team player - had to go anyway... sales are just tanking.
She fully expected to be one of them but then who who do her lay offs? The managers got cut LAST week so she survived those cuts to win the privilege of getting to lay off others.
She thought moving into management would be a gas - she is natural leader & a very good mentor... competent in the subject matter too not just a 'managers manager'. She was moved up right after 9/11 when they made big cuts and she juggled better than anyone on a shoe string staffing... as they staffed back up she was promoted a couple times... she understood that she would have to fire people as a manager but never thought she'd see it so bad that she would have to let solid, honest, top performers go. They are there now - a lot of companies are 'there' now.
The only good thing you can say for those laid off is they'll have more time to see dandelions, butterflies and blue skies... less time under the glare of florescent lighting & in front of monitors.
[I made her a monster pineapple daiquiri when she came home - she is off in the corner with it now]...
A few years ago there was some high school kid back east who turned his mom's garden shed into radioactive waste trying to produce something - dont remember the whole story...
I dont think the UE numbers are going to look very good until we start seeing all the road construction...
China getting a flat top is not that big a deal, the Chinese are not particularly expansionist (with the exception of Tibet), unlike the Russians who always wanted to expand their buffer by controling more territory, the problem being is that just set new borders, which then needed a buffer. That happened under the Romanoffs as much as under the Communists. As one of the great powers if does have legitamate security needs, most notably a need to make sure the straights of Mallaca are open to Chinese trade. I don't even think they will invade Taiwan, barring an outright declaration of independence by the island. More likely they will expand trade contacts (they just started buying in) and eventually more or less absorb Taiwan gradually. They famously have a much longer perspective than the west, this is illistrated by the story of the Chinese historian who was asked about his opinion of the French Revolution to which he replied "its too soon to tell". They are also smart enough not to want to do a full scale conventional war with the US. That would be totally at odds with the teachings in "The Art of War". Never attack a strength, only attack a weakness. A full scale naval engagement, sort of a modern replay of the Battle of Midway would be attacking a US strength. Not the way they think.
Auto workers all on mandatory fun now..
Basel Too,
MPAA and RIAA are a major influence in the Obama administration. Major.
Military technology has been continually suppressed throughout history by those trying to maintain power or balance. Just look at the crossbow, early chemical weapons (hell the classical greeks had chemical weapons), firearms, even the zeppelin. Notice every time we try to reintroduce the zeppelin for commercial transport, it gets canned. Technology is so much more advanced than the scared in our memory Hindenburg, but we don't use it. We used them to great effect in WWI and WWII. Most people don't know that we used blimps in WWII, but we did. I think we are on the verge of a major transformation in military warfare but we are afraid to show it to the world.
Aircraft carriers are not stealthy and all of our new weapons are....
"I love it when a meme takes hold. Broward, are you listening?"
Wasn't until I saw that cryptic reference by Samdog.
You want a graph?
Trend Search
Not much change that i can see. You don't need a meme, though. I think it's fairly obvious that the constant tax tweaking of the past twenty years has federal and state governments close to "peak tax income". Anything they do will decrease income.
I'll play around with California for a few more minutes, see if I can find anything.
I got a good laugh out of the Russians taking one of their old Bear bombers to Venezuela... Bring that puppy anywhere near the US coast, see it turned into an oil slick...
Aircraft carriers are very expensive to operate because of their vulnerability. They must be accompanied by a large (by many nations' standards) navy.
Viva, Chavez !!!
Oh yeah - forgot about the flotilla and the bases and support etc - I was only thinking of the build and operating costs.... with a crew of 5000?
We should have a member with EvilChavez or VivaChavez handle ...
Of what use have our technically advanced weapons been, when used in Afghanistan & Iraq?
We hold a tremendous advantage over our foes, but the results so far would show otherwise.
The attitude I'm getting here in Oregon is resignation-- this state was not exactly the mother lode of prosperity even before the current troubles. So there seems to be more depression than anger. A lot of people seem to have given up a long time ago, and are sort of inured to it. I'd hate to think the state was heading to permanent poverty, like the deep South or Appalachia, but that's what I'm reading.
Also since I was proposing that H1N1 be pronounce 'Hiney', then it got a whole new meaning when I read that WHO is worried that Hiney will cross with HIV....
China will be producing subs ...
Like the sub that snuck up on our battlegroup not too far back ...
very embarrassing, very embarrassing indeed ...
Well the predator has been invaluable over there.. for one thing... I suppose they are using the Global hawk too but not talking about it... Then there are all the bomb bots, the patrol bots that look like a go cart - Probably has saved innumerable lives...
Speaking of military, Mission Impossible: German Elite Troop Abandons Plan to Free Pirate Hostages - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International interesting Der Spiegel article on what might have been re: Somali seizure of German ship+crew
jack valenti, former head of the MPAA, is generally regarded as the most successful lobbyist. Given what he did to the copyright laws, it's hard to disagree.
I love Oregon and I'm going to go spend a bunch of money there this summer too. Going to get my rv interior updated in Junction City and drop some coin in the brewpubs all over the state... Might take a party boat fishing in the ocean too, if I have enough room in the freezer...
Communism on rise in recession-hit Japan
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8027397.stm
I was in the Rathskeller of a 'German' restaurant in the Midwest the night the Berlin Wall came down... we were watching it live on cable TV and drinking heavily & eating German food [I remember I was eating smoked pork hocks, kraut & potatoes - something my wife would not approve of as I would certainly have BAD gas later - delicious though]. The proprietor's family had come from 'The East' and he & I both agreed the BEST THING to ever happen to communism since the Germans put Lenin on a train back to Czarist Russia circa 1917 was the falling of that damned wall.
We debated how many years it would take for unconstrained corporate capitalist excess to 'over do it' and give people a reason to become 'neo-communists'... as foolish as that sounds we both agreed it would happen eventually... pendulums swing back & forth - we little people need to try to stay out of the way.
Can't recall my estimate then of when 'neo-communism' makes a come back but now is as good as any time.
This Derringer guy had no problem slamming the bulls, realtors, etc...for being dead wrong, where is his Mea Culpa? How much money did his "nuclear bomb" call cost people?
Do you mean Denninger? He has been spot on most of his calls, including warning bears back in late Feb that a "rip your face off" bear rally was due.
I'm not sure what you're referring too, and if it is KD you could at least get his name right.
Chinese subs might be a little scary but we will probably be able to track them with no problems... The Russians always said that the reason Russia were so afraid of our subs was that they were so quiet they were never really sure if they were tracking them or not...
@ShadowInventory - it's a pretty place, for sure, and they will certainly appreciate some trade, especially the back country people and at the coast. And of course Bend is in trouble.
That is because we are fighting a limited war again with limited objectives. Technology can't win a war where you can't 'win'. That is too simplistic... we are trying to win the hearts and minds of a people we have invaded. Total warfare doesn't accomplish this according to those who decide the rules. I don't know if 'limited' war has ever worked though. We are too civilized now which is why the barbarians are knocking on the gates. I do think a armored robo-dog with .50 cal weapon pods waltzing into a cave at night might be interesting...will see if the hype matches the results.
The Marxists will never give up - we have to continue to be vigilant and keep them weak as much as possible...
Cultural Marxism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Whatever label you put on it - they are nothing but thieves.
I loved those videos of the hyperbaric bombs hitting Tora Bora... And the super Bunker Buster that took out Saddam's basement bunker...
Off to dinner - thanks for the chat folks...
RD, can't see much about California & taxes or bankrtupcy or bailout.
There seems to be marginally less fear of bankruptcy but not enough to claim complacency.
I'd say the camps are the same - people who believe trouble is coming and people who believe Feds will fix it all.
Trend Search
On the "positive economy" side, there's a pop in Google traffic in the past ninety days.
Alexa's graphs say Facebook.com is lying about their rate of membership increase, just a sawtooth curve for the past eighteen months which is much more in line with what I expected.
I know, i'm having a hard time believing the Feds have arrested The Crash, too, but there's a lot of indications.
Mutually Assured Debtstruction
O/T: German car scrappage incentive Study condemns Germany's car scrapping scheme as waste | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 03.05.2009
The Welt am Sonntag newspaper quoted a study by the Halle Economic Research Institute (IWH) that said three out every four people who bought a new car and pocketed the bonus were intending to buy a new vehicle even without the handout.
According to the institute, out of the expected 2 million subsidized car sales, 1.5 million would have happened anyway. The IWH said the car scrapping incentive could burden the federal budget with 2,6 billion euros ($3,5 billion).
Under the popular scheme, the government offers a 2,500-euro bonus to anyone who puts a car 9 years or older in the crusher and buys a new one.
Germany was the first to pay the incentive, but many have followed with probably more yet to follow. In Canada our idiot government and truly stupid finance minister is expected to buy up pools of auto loans for no real reason beyond cronyism under the guise of saving jobs
Vonbek777
I'm not sure why this war talk keeps coming back, but perhaps you would enjoy: Sean Gourley on the mathematics of war | Video on TED.com
EHP its just a giant smoothing operation. They will suck any and all of the true blood they can find from the future in order to avoid letting the economy properly adjust now.
Broward,
Thanks for that. Sometimes we spiral into private black holes.
I do suggest you save those last search parameters and look at them after May 19th. You know by now I'm a trend leader and trust me, this will be one.
rally continues.
wonk 5 comments a minute.
knurds ride poneys
Is this real, on purpose, moving us toward hegemony? I don't know...but it is frustrating trying to figure out where we are going.
Play possum for politics. Anti-bush with friendly wars. When oil runs short or dollar ratchet blows up, then the attitude will change to a "strong america." We are a long way from Japan, EU and GS buying their "protection" from China.
"There are only two types of naval vessels:
Submarines....... and Targets!"
That was basically true as far back as WWII. In practical terms, well-built warships can take a staggering amount of abuse (Operation Crossroads) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia and stay alfoat.
RD, I saw your $20 billion deficit number for fiscal 2009.
One thing I've never been able to do is quantify the IT revolution versus the Industrial revolution. They've very similar in many ways except the rates-of-change in IT are much larger. Those were confined to the IT industry itself and made little difference in how the revolution was progressing in the real world.
I still think those orders of magnitude don't mean much.
But I can't be sure.
I think the Feds can create a stabilization effect with lower mortgage rates which might last a couple of years.
Personally, I would be happy if California delayed its blow-up for another ten years.
GDD9000
Not a smoothing operation at all. I knew better by age 3, "Don't count your chickens until the eggs are hatched". That is the essence of a credit bubble. Now we know there are not enough chickens for everyone to eat tonight. Instead of everyone eating a little less, or a few eating nothing at all, we have proceeded to slaughter the last of the chickens. Thereby guaranteeing no one will eat tomorrow night, and it will take some time before we have to stop worrying about survival. It's not kosher. You don't eat the chicken with the egg... it's not an ethical or literal prescription, it's a reminder to not be incredibly stupid
too much pump going on in msm. I feel pump and dump in my bones the way I felt collapse coming last summer. go with the gut.
EHP - maybe we have a terminology disagreement. I dont disagree with your egg analogy at all. Im not saying the operation will be at all successful. But I think those carrying it out have convinced themselves (across the globe) that it will be.
What this means given a debt based economy is fewer and fewer people have access to credit as their future earning become ever more doubtful. Think about it.
The basis of our economic system is really that we have some growth and that the American worker can spend via credit all of the money he makes in thirty years today. This is done with long term loans and rolling credit. Eventually at the end of the day overall inflation is supposed to translate into wealth as people sell their homes and exist the stock market to retire to their second vacation homes.
Well its simply not going to work that way as credit is reduced because of the shrinking of the overall input of core commodities and resources the total amount of future assets that can be created declines.
This directly reduced the amount that can be safely loaned in the future and like a back to the future wave comes back to today in the form of credit defaults as growth stalls and the real economy shrinks.
Whats interesting is for credit its basically a boolean event either your credit worthy and can service your debt or you cannot. Either your capable of taking on more credit or you are not. Regardless of the dance the government plays the intrinsic situation is the same.
--memmel
WRT subs:
The new PRC models are pretty good. They won't directly challenge us. From what i see in their media (via my wife, who is Chinese), is that they think we are in terminal decline. They think that once our fiscal troubles force us out of the Pacific, they can slide right in. I think they are on to something...
GDD9000
I don't know what politicians or their aides believe, but I do accept it is possible some of them believe they are doing Keynesian smoothing. I think most politicians and policy makers assume they make little difference. What is important for them is who they reward, and that the public sees them doing something so that they can later make the connection to their actions and eventual success. Shamans in West Africa know what they do is bogus, but they have a following as old as time. The trick is not what you do, but what people see you do. When not pre-occupied, steal steal steal and win the favor of real political power. Lobbyists don't bid on politicians, politicians bid to win the support the parents of lobbyists.
EvilHenryPaulson, thanks that was interesting. I have a more cynical view of Iraq due to a lot of inside baseball at high levels. One day a true look at Bush, Rummy, State Department, and the actual generals who fought the war will be told. The current view now is not very accurate. There were so many missed opportunities because of American arrogance and just plain stupidity.
It seems to me a concerted effort, largely orchestrated by the US. It's very similar to how the UK fell in line with the US economically the past few years, to the destruction of their own economy. They also bought up a lot of our debt, not by accident. There are some politicians who probably know they have not much in the way to offer, the truth is too painful, so they sell a vision, and in the meantime, make sure the right people who are on the real power levers outside of gov (the shadown gov/shadow banking world) keep their power so they can shower more of it upon the incumbent political apparatus. There is a placebo effect that is not limited to shamans, sugar pills, or confidence measures that look like sound policy. It's all a matter of how long you can pull the wool over people's eyes, and see what they do in the meantime to help themselves. Problem is, right now, the blood letting is still happening each day, eg dryfly's wife's company in multiples. As the million more job losses keep piling up, the placebo effect will have to be that much stronger. I keep wondering what tricks they come up with next, and they keep amusing me with new ones. This whole thing reminds me of the rally that ended at the end of last year. All ended ugly.
Evil Henry Paulson,
Regarding your response to my question a few hours ago (trigger for stock mkt collapse), something just crossed my mind. In your comments you mentioned possibly "sovereign debt default" as the trip point.
That made me think, do we know how Turbo-Tim's IRS people fared this past April 15, or still too soon (or 'they' don't want to scare us)? I remember earlier in the year, there seemed to be some chatter about the real chance the fed's tax-collecting business might get hit by the same bus that hit individual income, corporate profits, state & local sales, etc.
I guess saying "might get hit" is a little evasive. More like they WILL get hit. I'd think any lower-than-expected tax revenue will fray a few nerves.
OT: Chinese may want a carrier as a status symbol of having "arrived" as a major world power.
The Soviets neutralized the U.S. Sixth Fleet's carriers in the days before the four U.S. carrier battlegroup arrived off the Israeli coast during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. They placed a cruiser and/or destroyer alongside each U. S. carrier (within 500 yards) prepared to torpedo us if we made any move to launch. No matter what evasive manuevers we took, our carriers could not shake them and put some distance between them and us.
I was thee -- crapping in y pants for three days. Carriers are fine for limited war -- small third world expeditionary operations. A major conflict? Not so survivable anymore.
I'm pretty sure we can track the Chinese subs. That big deal a few months ago with the Chinese Navy harassing a US Navy ship just didn't seem right. A US Navy sub tracking boat turns up in the vicinity of China's submarine base, China sends out a flotilla of crap boats to harass it for half an hour and then leave, never bothering it again? Yeah. Their commanders said to go out and get real close so they have to pay attention to what's going on on the surface, and use a bunch of old noisy boats so the sonar can't hear a damn thing underwater.
We knew that their newest submarine was going to be passing underneath and China was trying to keep us from learning even more about it. How did we know?
Oh, and that 3-page article could be condensed down to 2 paragraphs and still be 2/3rds fluff. Gigantic surface ships have limited utility and are vulnerable. News at 11.