Dann Adams, president of U.S. Information Systems for Equifax Inc (EFX.N), said 4.7 percent of payments on bank-issued credit cards were at least 60 days late in March, an increase of 38.3 percent over March 2008.
"There are higher degrees of instability now in prime than in subprime," Adams said. "It's accelerated with the acceleration of unemployment.
I give $2 a day, every day to the needy. That's $14 dollars a week, every week to the needy. BO and his obamabots can do the volunteering to come clean my house for free if they feel so strongly about volunteering. The needy will get no more assistance from me. I already give them plenty of tax money every time I buy a pack of cigarettes.
Well, maybe they are right. Maybe the economy is recovering.
I think the biggest threat going forward is the fact that the government is now the dominant player in the housing, banking, auto, insurance and CRE industries. Over time, this lends itself to cronyism, mis-allocation of resources and market failure.
I am also bothered that markets are no longer functioning in their primary role: directing the proper allocation of resources. Ultra low mortgage rates are encouraging the housing industry when it already suffers from overcapacity, etc.
Then again, I could be wrong and it is all blue skies from here.
One underlying assumption is that even now, we can change course, and allow-to-fail financial and other systemically critical business institutions.
At this point, I think we've just about pinned ourselves to a decade of slow (read negative growth) and slow re-employment (read no employment growth)--and that's if we tack the other way and allow to bk what we ought to have bk'd.
Well, maybe they are right. Maybe the economy is recovering.
Until we stop shedding jobs I see no recovery. Half a million plus people getting the door every month is going to piss all over any "green shoots" that sprout.
Looking at indexes, charts and graphs and saying recovery doesn't feed you when Uncle Sam's check runs out.
Even though this seems like a tree falling in the forest with no one to hear it, it's nice that at least someone in a position of authority remembers what free market disciplne is designed to accomplish. Surprised he got to voice an opinion that conflicts with the program.
The program under the current administration, we have phoney markets propping up the establishment - The Everyone-Gets-a-Trophy model of failed enterprise. Of course that and protect existing bond and equity holders above all, especially taxpayers.
You made two points both of which I have to add to:
1) The markets we're already cronied and gamed to reallocate middle-class wealth to the top 1%. The government as simply normalized and codified into law that circumstance.
2) The market ceased a long time ago to function in that idealistically efficient way you seem to believe they used to function, allocating capital to productive endeavors. Some people on this board would take issue with that assumption, and might claim that in fact market have been dislocated from productively finding outlets for capital for the last 30 years--no hyperbole intended.
But, I'd collapse both observations into the same observation by noting that mal-investment and cronyism and keptocracy pretty much go hand-in-hand. We just happen to live in a very complex, often nuanced hamster wheel of a country.
Even though this seems like a tree falling in the forest with no one to hear it, it's nice that at least someone in a position of authority remembers what free market disciplne is designed to accomplish. Surprised he got to voice an opinion that conflicts with the program.
The only speaking gigs he's gonna get from now on are Rotary breakfasts out in Emporium...
Good for Hoenig. He might as well be shouting from the top of Denali for all it's going to matter. But it's good to see him speak up.
Where is Janet Yellon on this? I forget or never knew in the first place. If she and one or two other Fed Presidents jump on the bandwagon, it could make things awkward for the Administration and for Bernanke.
A vote of non-confidence from respected, serious people with good moral compasses is about the only thing that will keep utter disaster from turning into, well, something worse than that.
Volker is on board, and Pres. Obama keeps talking about how much he values his counsel. There may be more to that than meets the eye or the skeptical ear.
I am not saying that markets used to function well in the Good Ole Days. Just saying that what is the purpose of having a bond market if the primary purpose is subverted. Of course CRE yiels should be high: it is a bad business to be in right now. Buying CMBS only encourages more un-needed strip malls. You guys already know all this, but it concerns me that no one in the press (even Bloomberg, WSJ, etc) give any mention to this.
Until we stop shedding jobs I see no recovery. Half a million plus people getting the door every month is going to piss all over any "green shoots" that sprout.
To add to this Kansas meme... Green Shoots: what comes out of cows when they come off feed and get out on pasture for the first time in the spring.
I'm pretty sure that once Goldman Sachs is in a position to take advantage of the other banks, i.e. once it allowed to repay its TARP money, no bank will be too big to fail. It will all be dependent on whether GS can make money on it or not.
to create an asset backed dollar most effectively the fed would prefer more deflation in the short run because it allows them to print with impunity to pay for the assets they want.
once they are done buying, inflation will be the friend of their portfolio.
Doesn't the Chrysler shutdown start today? Won't these numbers show up in new unemployment claims?
I think they have been shutting down for weeks in anticipation. But I believe last week the flow of parts really put a crimp on... it should be completely dead there by now.
I would think initial claims will sky as a result but then everyone knows 'its all priced in'.
By KATE KELLY and JON HILSENRATH (wall street journal)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York shaped Washington’s response to the financial crisis late last year, which buoyed Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other Wall Street firms. Goldman received speedy approval to become a bank holding company in September and a $10 billion capital injection soon after.
During that time, the New York Fed’s chairman, Stephen Friedman, sat on Goldman’s board and had a large holding in Goldman stock, which because of Goldman’s new status as a bank holding company was a violation of Federal Reserve policy.
[New York Fed Chairman's Ties to Goldman Raise Questions] Patrick McMullan
The New York Fed asked for a waiver, which, after about 2½ months, the Fed granted. While it was weighing the request, Mr. Friedman bought 37,300 more Goldman shares in December. They’ve since risen $1.7 million in value.
Mr. Friedman also was overseeing the search for a new president of the New York Fed, an officer who has a critical role in setting monetary policy at the Federal Reserve. The choice was a former Goldman executive.
The case illustrates what a tangle of overlapping interests can arise at a hybrid institution like the New York Federal Reserve Bank, especially as the U.S. government, in addressing the financial and economic turmoil, grows ever more deeply enmeshed in American business and banking.
Mr. Friedman, who once ran Goldman, says none of these events involved any conflicts. He says his job as chairman of the New York Fed isn’t a policy-making one, that he didn’t consider his purchases of more Goldman shares to conflict with Fed policy, and bought shares because they were very cheap.
Last week, following questions from The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Friedman, 71 years old, disclosed he would step down from the New York Fed at year end. In an interview, he said he made the decision because the waiver letting him own Goldman stock and be a Goldman director expires at the end of the year. He added: “I see no conflict whatsoever in owning shares.”
i really have no idea if i am right about an asset backed dollar being the intention of the fed.
hard to say the trillions they have added to their balance sheet makes their private company worth less. our dollars are tied to the value of that company. the dollar has mostly risen as they expanded their balance sheet 5, or 10(?) times in a year.
things fall in place a little differently if you start from the premise that the dollar has become a macro ETF.
Due to the shortage of Gold, Pyrite is now available in solid bars, looks like real Gold. Strict limit 10 gold bars to a customer. Coming soon, Obama Pyrite gold coins! Don't be price out on this once in a life time opportunity! Call Now!
there is something to be said of this myth of free markets. as though unchecked aggression is virtuous because only the strong survive--and in some respects this is quite true, in the sense that predators down their prey and feast of another for it's self-interest in living. However rapcious butchery of time/energy/labor of one large group of people by one small group of people is not the social contract I signed up for, no matter how fare and transparent the rules that govern venal behavior.
free markets are simply code for a kind of mouse-trap, with a specific flavor of cheese.
So it cost us 1 TRILLION in CASH and Several TRILLION in Guarantees to admit this plan was a CLUSTERF-ck and we should scrap it? Did I get that straight?
U-6 and continuing UE claims continue as leading indicators for consumer credit deterioration and prime mortgage deterioration...
Data hunt for nothingburger stats - this link is from ECDC (Euro CDC) "Lessons from Previous Pandemics" - Figure 2 is the curve of interest but that relates to an influenza wave with an R0 of 3+ which doesn't apply to our current circumstances...anyone have links to data for similar curves in the R0=1.6 to R0=2.4 range?
Closest thing found was from Wisdom Speaker but need the log plots for total population translated into % cases presenting per week ala op. cit.
(Paper by Germann, Kadau, Longini and Macken 2006 but link http://www.pnas.org/content/103/15/5935.abstract stopped working this morning). (is working intermittently this morning - get full pdf on right margin)
So, what is the consensus: trial balloon? I'm sure the Summers team isn't watching the CR Commentariat, but I wonder if Hoenig drew the short straw at the last FOMC meeting and they are floating this to see how it goes over?
It sure looks like this administration is wasting money to all other possible options (just like the previous one did) and when it is finally going to try the right one, there will be no money left. Except printed new dollars....
Soros on Barack Obama’s administration.
“He’s done very well in every area, except in dealing with the recapitalization of the banks and the restructuring of the mortgage market.
Soros said the banking system is “seriously under water” with banks on “life support.”
Soros said the change to fair-value accounting rules will keep troubled banks in business, stalling a U.S. recovery.
“This is part of the muddling-through scenario where we are going to keep zombie banks alive,” Soros said. “It’s going to sap the energies of the economy.”
The “bugaboo of nationalizing banks,” which the Obama administration wants to avoid, means “we are nationalizing only one side of the balance sheet,” Soros said. “We gradually take over the deficits on the balance sheet. But we aren’t actually going to benefit from the banks recovering.”
Wow. The Italian Way of Divorce. Not just divorced lawyers, but libel lawyers too.
Next: GS will be sueing blog commentors for being mean and harsh.
ROME (AP) - A peeved Premier Silvio Berlusconi has demanded a public apology from his wife, who announced she was seeking a divorce from the billionaire media magnate because she was fed up with his roving eye for younger women.
Going on the counterattack, the 72-year-old, perma-tanned conservative premier, who in recent years has had hair transplants and plastic surgery around the eyes, appeared more intent on saving his wounded pride than his foundering marriage.
"Veronica will have to publicly apologize to me. And I don't know if that will be enough," the Corriere della Sera daily on Monday quoted Berlusconi as saying in a long chat with its editor-in-chief.
Where nationalization can be called pre-privatization....
"Free markets," in the current sense, can be called pre-monopolization. No rules means one guy or group eventually gains power over the market and ... never lets go unless forced.
I'm beginning to feel like the vulture in that cartoon: "Patience my ass. I'm gonna go kill something!"
Lincoln had the wisdom to replace generals until he found those up to the task. President Obama needs to follow that lead. Timid responses within the ossified bounds of past actions and strategies will not work this time either.
"I'm beginning to feel like the vulture in that cartoon: "Patience my ass. I'm gonna go kill something!"
Lincoln had the wisdom to replace generals until he found those up to the task. President Obama needs to follow that lead. Timid responses within the ossified bounds of past actions and strategies will not work this time either."
Rob, I agree. I never thought Obama's approach was going to work; but I give him a year (nine month now) to come to his senses, because I think he can do that as things continue to get obviously worse despite the oh-so-very-good-advice he gets from Tim and Larry -- or because of it.
There was no way a guy who sees things as they really are in the economy could have gotten elected president last year. Never would have made it through the process. Obama is, at best, the one most likely to have a lightbulb go on after a while.
Do you hear us up there in the Ivory Snow (tm) Pavilion?
The mandarins are all out in the main courtyard, shouting and throwing inkpots at the eunuchs.
Even the ministers are out here.
Better get out here and put all the cream of the administrative talent in your empire under arrest, or listen to what we have to say. We're not going to shut up and go home, we're much to educated for that. Most of us are finance professionals or queer obsessives and this IS home.
Fail the insolvent banks.
Fail the insolvent banks.
Fail the insolvent banks.
How many MORE billions will we waste before we do the right thing? How much MORE will the eunuch parasites siphon away from the altars of soil and grain?
This is what should have been done all along. None of you mealy-mouthed rubberspines in power -- and I know you're reading this -- had the fortitude to admit it and look where we got. Now get out there and do what needs to be done so this can go from the fall of the Han Dynasty back to being a financial crisis.
Hoenig for Fed Chairman indeed, but don't you find it troubling that Hoening did nothing to curb the abuses of Greenspan and Bernanke? To me, it looks like Hoenig is just posturing for the job that Bernanke will leave open and that Timmie Geithner will not get (because he is going to flame out).
What is Hoenig's record in working against the credit bubble? I have not seen him do anything very useful in 2000-2009, but I am more than willing to be educated.
What is Hoenig's record in working against the credit bubble? I have not seen him do anything very useful in 2000-2009, but I am more than willing to be educated.
Hell he is from KC playing in a NY world... he CAN'T do anything. Nor will he get the nod - Wall Street won't allow it. He even said as much in the first part of Q&A when asked about the what will happen to NYC if the banks die - the Fed was constructed the way it was w/ 12 'remote' districts to try and balance off against Wall Street power - good luck w/ that. Mostly token.
There is nothing he could do [except scream in the wilderness - today was example]
He has a better chance at being America's Next Idol than Fed Chrmn...
I learned this well - in the farm crisis - they turned the center of the country upside down & shook it for 3-4 years and other than Willie Nelson concerts nobody even knew it was happening. They are going to pick a guy to run the fed from these parts? Hardly.
I think the biggest threat going forward is the fact that the government is now the dominant player in the housing, banking, auto, insurance and CRE industries. Over time, this lends itself to cronyism, mis-allocation of resources and market failure.
ummm... so true. until Obama was inaugurated we had no market failures, cronyism or misallocation of resrouces... oh. wait...
I'm sure much of what you say is right, but did Hoenig even speak up or was he just playing along so that he could have a chance later?
What is terrible troubling with these hierarchical and undemocratic institutions is that in order to get to the top (and perhaps do something good). you have to play along for 35 years while a succession of bandits plunders the country.
It should be pretty clear that we have a structural problem here, in terms of how many important institutions are governed and governing us.
I'm sure much of what you say is right, but did Hoenig even speak up or was he just playing along so that he could have a chance later?
He waffled - he wasn't a rah-rah save Wall Street cheerleader - I recall some of his earlier comments as having 'reservations' about the directions... but he didn't stick his neck out either. And it wasn't to have a 'chance' later - it was probably to keep his job THEN. If he had spoken out forcefully and often against Wall Street early or even circa late 2007... he would be 'gone' now.
These guys only tolerate dissent if it is ineffective.
Luckily, now that the stress tests are complete, we know we don't have any troubled banks.
Why does he hate America?
More March credit card payments late
Dann Adams, president of U.S. Information Systems for Equifax Inc (EFX.N), said 4.7 percent of payments on bank-issued credit cards were at least 60 days late in March, an increase of 38.3 percent over March 2008.
"There are higher degrees of instability now in prime than in subprime," Adams said. "It's accelerated with the acceleration of unemployment.
I wondered why the Dow was surging today.
... followed closely on the Bloomberg by:
"Troubled Banks: Let Kansas Fed Fail"
Ironically, each is pretty much equally likely.
wow...forget about putting humpty dumpty back together again, can we repair the wall he was sitting on? That is a very interesting stat curious..
I give $2 a day, every day to the needy. That's $14 dollars a week, every week to the needy. BO and his obamabots can do the volunteering to come clean my house for free if they feel so strongly about volunteering. The needy will get no more assistance from me. I already give them plenty of tax money every time I buy a pack of cigarettes.
hey zimbabwe ben,
kinda stunning the last 200 minutes in currencies, huh?
here
bullshit rallies do send a signal.
and this in spite of the rising yield on the ten year note over the last few days
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 12:07 pm reply Ignore user Why does he hate America?
It's not America per se he hates, it's just Americans.
See, big difference.
--bh
"Pre-privatized" sounds like a bank robber demanding a "pre-deposit" at gunpoint.
Man, the dollar is starting to move.
Vonbek, I believe the prevailing theory is that Humpty wouldn't been hurt if the wall had only been taller.
Not one Cent,
Don't think of it as a pre-deposit, but rather, getting in on the ground floor of a "pre-investment"...just think about the appreciation.
--bh
Repost from previous thread:
Well, maybe they are right. Maybe the economy is recovering.
I think the biggest threat going forward is the fact that the government is now the dominant player in the housing, banking, auto, insurance and CRE industries. Over time, this lends itself to cronyism, mis-allocation of resources and market failure.
I am also bothered that markets are no longer functioning in their primary role: directing the proper allocation of resources. Ultra low mortgage rates are encouraging the housing industry when it already suffers from overcapacity, etc.
Then again, I could be wrong and it is all blue skies from here.
I hear many people are becoming "pre-employed."
Bush should have called his Iraq invasion a "pre-withdrawal."
Actions speak louder than words bub.
I'd say a good start would be to end 'negotiations' with the Zombie20 asap.
Gotta keep your regulatory pimp hand strong.
One underlying assumption is that even now, we can change course, and allow-to-fail financial and other systemically critical business institutions.
At this point, I think we've just about pinned ourselves to a decade of slow (read negative growth) and slow re-employment (read no employment growth)--and that's if we tack the other way and allow to bk what we ought to have bk'd.
--bh
Summary: Pre-privatize. Now, with no pre-conditions or protected classes.
In the next election cycle I'm voting for Hoenig and not Bernanke.
Vote Hoenig for Fed Chairman!
Well, maybe they are right. Maybe the economy is recovering.
Until we stop shedding jobs I see no recovery. Half a million plus people getting the door every month is going to piss all over any "green shoots" that sprout.
Looking at indexes, charts and graphs and saying recovery doesn't feed you when Uncle Sam's check runs out.
"This plan has many advantages, including that management and shareholders bear the costs for their actions before taxpayer funds are committed. "
This is why it won't happen.
Kansas City Fed huh? Where is Kansas City?
If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?
Even though this seems like a tree falling in the forest with no one to hear it, it's nice that at least someone in a position of authority remembers what free market disciplne is designed to accomplish. Surprised he got to voice an opinion that conflicts with the program.
The program under the current administration, we have phoney markets propping up the establishment - The Everyone-Gets-a-Trophy model of failed enterprise. Of course that and protect existing bond and equity holders above all, especially taxpayers.
Why not let troubled banks fail?
Because banks are your biggest political contributors and rule #1 of politics is cover the backs of your backers.
Nuke,
You made two points both of which I have to add to:
1) The markets we're already cronied and gamed to reallocate middle-class wealth to the top 1%. The government as simply normalized and codified into law that circumstance.
2) The market ceased a long time ago to function in that idealistically efficient way you seem to believe they used to function, allocating capital to productive endeavors. Some people on this board would take issue with that assumption, and might claim that in fact market have been dislocated from productively finding outlets for capital for the last 30 years--no hyperbole intended.
But, I'd collapse both observations into the same observation by noting that mal-investment and cronyism and keptocracy pretty much go hand-in-hand. We just happen to live in a very complex, often nuanced hamster wheel of a country.
--bh
Has there been any talk at all of an exit strategy for the gov? How will we ever re-privatize Freddie, Fannie, AIG, Citi, etc.
It is like Iraq. As long as it is saturated with troops, the violence is controllable. As soon as withdrawls start, things fall apart again.
"Troubled Banks: Let Kansas Fed Fail"
No - "What IS the matter with Kansas?"
Even though this seems like a tree falling in the forest with no one to hear it, it's nice that at least someone in a position of authority remembers what free market disciplne is designed to accomplish. Surprised he got to voice an opinion that conflicts with the program.
The only speaking gigs he's gonna get from now on are Rotary breakfasts out in Emporium...
Kanas Fed President suggests wiping out the shareholders of all the major banks.
Result:
BAC BBT BK C CMA FITB JPM KEY PNC STI USB WFC ZION
All up 3.5%-11%
Good for Hoenig. He might as well be shouting from the top of Denali for all it's going to matter. But it's good to see him speak up.
Where is Janet Yellon on this? I forget or never knew in the first place. If she and one or two other Fed Presidents jump on the bandwagon, it could make things awkward for the Administration and for Bernanke.
A vote of non-confidence from respected, serious people with good moral compasses is about the only thing that will keep utter disaster from turning into, well, something worse than that.
Volker is on board, and Pres. Obama keeps talking about how much he values his counsel. There may be more to that than meets the eye or the skeptical ear.
Financial engineering 101/alchemy - how to turn toxic assets into AAA gold.
Michael Milken for DEBT CZAR.
THE BARRICADE » Blog Archive » Financial Engineering/Alchemy 101 - turning toxic waste into AAA gold - Contrarian Grapeshot for a Teetering World
BH:
I am not saying that markets used to function well in the Good Ole Days. Just saying that what is the purpose of having a bond market if the primary purpose is subverted. Of course CRE yiels should be high: it is a bad business to be in right now. Buying CMBS only encourages more un-needed strip malls. You guys already know all this, but it concerns me that no one in the press (even Bloomberg, WSJ, etc) give any mention to this.
Just my 2 cents.
Swedish is the new black
Until we stop shedding jobs I see no recovery. Half a million plus people getting the door every month is going to piss all over any "green shoots" that sprout.
To add to this Kansas meme... Green Shoots: what comes out of cows when they come off feed and get out on pasture for the first time in the spring.
I'm pretty sure that once Goldman Sachs is in a position to take advantage of the other banks, i.e. once it allowed to repay its TARP money, no bank will be too big to fail. It will all be dependent on whether GS can make money on it or not.
to create an asset backed dollar most effectively the fed would prefer more deflation in the short run because it allows them to print with impunity to pay for the assets they want.
once they are done buying, inflation will be the friend of their portfolio.
Dryfly:
Doesn't the Chrysler shutdown start today? Won't these numbers show up in new unemployment claims?
i stopped believing in "free" markets a long time ago
free has come to mean, lawless...a place where the bullies, dry-gulchers and inside players got you by the balls
welcome to the...eLLLLLLLLL shaped recovery
_
..._
......_
.........____
..................____
..........................._______
..........................................___________________
................................................................................._________________________
....................................................................................................................................____________________________________
and the world of free trade
where USA standard of living falls until cheap labor prices rise around the world
or machines replace even that cost
dont worry our business and political leaders at the top will of course do fine as they orchestrate and coordinate
(are you one of the business or political leaders??? if you have to ask...then you obviously are not)
Nuke,
Your two cents is welcome and more mal-investment is not going to correct the economy or make materialize a bottom. I agree.
--bh
S&P 500 is up 1.88%
S&P Transportation index is up 0.08%
"One of these numbers doesn't belong"
Doesn't the Chrysler shutdown start today? Won't these numbers show up in new unemployment claims?
I think they have been shutting down for weeks in anticipation. But I believe last week the flow of parts really put a crimp on... it should be completely dead there by now.
I would think initial claims will sky as a result but then everyone knows 'its all priced in'.
uhh why is mt so umm angry
What Manipulation? « Grandich's Blog
What Manipulation?
May 4th, 2009
By KATE KELLY and JON HILSENRATH (wall street journal)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York shaped Washington’s response to the financial crisis late last year, which buoyed Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and other Wall Street firms. Goldman received speedy approval to become a bank holding company in September and a $10 billion capital injection soon after.
During that time, the New York Fed’s chairman, Stephen Friedman, sat on Goldman’s board and had a large holding in Goldman stock, which because of Goldman’s new status as a bank holding company was a violation of Federal Reserve policy.
[New York Fed Chairman's Ties to Goldman Raise Questions] Patrick McMullan
The New York Fed asked for a waiver, which, after about 2½ months, the Fed granted. While it was weighing the request, Mr. Friedman bought 37,300 more Goldman shares in December. They’ve since risen $1.7 million in value.
Mr. Friedman also was overseeing the search for a new president of the New York Fed, an officer who has a critical role in setting monetary policy at the Federal Reserve. The choice was a former Goldman executive.
The case illustrates what a tangle of overlapping interests can arise at a hybrid institution like the New York Federal Reserve Bank, especially as the U.S. government, in addressing the financial and economic turmoil, grows ever more deeply enmeshed in American business and banking.
Mr. Friedman, who once ran Goldman, says none of these events involved any conflicts. He says his job as chairman of the New York Fed isn’t a policy-making one, that he didn’t consider his purchases of more Goldman shares to conflict with Fed policy, and bought shares because they were very cheap.
Last week, following questions from The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Friedman, 71 years old, disclosed he would step down from the New York Fed at year end. In an interview, he said he made the decision because the waiver letting him own Goldman stock and be a Goldman director expires at the end of the year. He added: “I see no conflict whatsoever in owning shares.”
...
like i said above...got us by the balls
Green shoots...more like green puke from The Bear. After all, months of wild partying takes it's toll.
But it will be back soon! 
Yup starting to look more and more like the United States of Goldman Sachs. Getting to be time to move back to Canada.
i really have no idea if i am right about an asset backed dollar being the intention of the fed.
hard to say the trillions they have added to their balance sheet makes their private company worth less. our dollars are tied to the value of that company. the dollar has mostly risen as they expanded their balance sheet 5, or 10(?) times in a year.
things fall in place a little differently if you start from the premise that the dollar has become a macro ETF.
Who is Demos? What is their mission/agenda - anyone know?
Due to the shortage of Gold, Pyrite is now available in solid bars, looks like real Gold. Strict limit 10 gold bars to a customer. Coming soon, Obama Pyrite gold coins! Don't be price out on this once in a life time opportunity! Call Now!
mock turtule,
there is something to be said of this myth of free markets. as though unchecked aggression is virtuous because only the strong survive--and in some respects this is quite true, in the sense that predators down their prey and feast of another for it's self-interest in living. However rapcious butchery of time/energy/labor of one large group of people by one small group of people is not the social contract I signed up for, no matter how fare and transparent the rules that govern venal behavior.
free markets are simply code for a kind of mouse-trap, with a specific flavor of cheese.
--bh
So it cost us 1 TRILLION in CASH and Several TRILLION in Guarantees to admit this plan was a CLUSTERF-ck and we should scrap it? Did I get that straight?
Be sure to make your checks for quarterly estimated taxes out to Goldman Sachs.
U-6 and continuing UE claims continue as leading indicators for consumer credit deterioration and prime mortgage deterioration...
Data hunt for nothingburger stats - this link is from ECDC (Euro CDC) "Lessons from Previous Pandemics" - Figure 2 is the curve of interest but that relates to an influenza wave with an R0 of 3+ which doesn't apply to our current circumstances...anyone have links to data for similar curves in the R0=1.6 to R0=2.4 range?
ECDC link
http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/files/pdf/Health_topics/Lessons_from_previous_pandemics.pdf
Closest thing found was from Wisdom Speaker but need the log plots for total population translated into % cases presenting per week ala op. cit.
(Paper by Germann, Kadau, Longini and Macken 2006 but link http://www.pnas.org/content/103/15/5935.abstract stopped working this morning). (is working intermittently this morning - get full pdf on right margin)
Not so fast Money Man. No one has admitted anything like that.
Just a few lone voices wailing in the wilderness.
blackhat
i agree...yes if only it were a darwinian competition
that at least, however brutal (and not my first choice) would be on the up and up
but the reality is..its more like a horse race
where the fix is in
This is gasp NATIONALIZATION!
So, what is the consensus: trial balloon? I'm sure the Summers team isn't watching the CR Commentariat, but I wonder if Hoenig drew the short straw at the last FOMC meeting and they are floating this to see how it goes over?
It sure looks like this administration is wasting money to all other possible options (just like the previous one did) and when it is finally going to try the right one, there will be no money left. Except printed new dollars....
GS = teh Evil
Too big to fail. Too big to exist. Societal and Financial Psychopaths
Sounds like Dr. Thomas Hoenig agrees with Soros
Soros on Barack Obama’s administration.
“He’s done very well in every area, except in dealing with the recapitalization of the banks and the restructuring of the mortgage market.
Soros said the banking system is “seriously under water” with banks on “life support.”
Soros said the change to fair-value accounting rules will keep troubled banks in business, stalling a U.S. recovery.
“This is part of the muddling-through scenario where we are going to keep zombie banks alive,” Soros said. “It’s going to sap the energies of the economy.”
The “bugaboo of nationalizing banks,” which the Obama administration wants to avoid, means “we are nationalizing only one side of the balance sheet,” Soros said. “We gradually take over the deficits on the balance sheet. But we aren’t actually going to benefit from the banks recovering.”
volker the viking (profile) wrote on Mon, 5/4/2009 - 10:05 am
byzantine ruins writes: "The question to me is, what have we really seen and what should we take away from that?"
Ever the rhetorician.
"I don't want to set the world on fire.
I just want to start a flame in your heart."
Lay hold of the truth and it shall sear your soul.....Lay hold of the current day and it shall baffle your mind.......
btw, more kudos to Ken Cooper - comment system just rocks
Jjump on the bankwagon gravy train!
Wow. The Italian Way of Divorce. Not just divorced lawyers, but libel lawyers too.
Next: GS will be sueing blog commentors for being mean and harsh.
ROME (AP) - A peeved Premier Silvio Berlusconi has demanded a public apology from his wife, who announced she was seeking a divorce from the billionaire media magnate because she was fed up with his roving eye for younger women.
Going on the counterattack, the 72-year-old, perma-tanned conservative premier, who in recent years has had hair transplants and plastic surgery around the eyes, appeared more intent on saving his wounded pride than his foundering marriage.
"Veronica will have to publicly apologize to me. And I don't know if that will be enough," the Corriere della Sera daily on Monday quoted Berlusconi as saying in a long chat with its editor-in-chief.
Hoenig is sending out a trial balloon--preempting bull shit from bank lobbyists. It's part of a required political dance.
Blackhat,
"We just happen to live in a very complex, often nuanced hamster wheel of a country."
Wonderful. I am stealing your statement for use in future conversations.
Just so you know. Thanks for posting.
puttin' lipstick on pigs at the trough
Where nationalization can be called pre-privatization....
"Free markets," in the current sense, can be called pre-monopolization. No rules means one guy or group eventually gains power over the market and ... never lets go unless forced.
dryfly,
looking at their website I'd say left leaning (to put it mildly) think tank
I'm beginning to feel like the vulture in that cartoon: "Patience my ass. I'm gonna go kill something!"
Lincoln had the wisdom to replace generals until he found those up to the task. President Obama needs to follow that lead. Timid responses within the ossified bounds of past actions and strategies will not work this time either.
"I'm beginning to feel like the vulture in that cartoon: "Patience my ass. I'm gonna go kill something!"
Lincoln had the wisdom to replace generals until he found those up to the task. President Obama needs to follow that lead. Timid responses within the ossified bounds of past actions and strategies will not work this time either."
Rob, I agree. I never thought Obama's approach was going to work; but I give him a year (nine month now) to come to his senses, because I think he can do that as things continue to get obviously worse despite the oh-so-very-good-advice he gets from Tim and Larry -- or because of it.
There was no way a guy who sees things as they really are in the economy could have gotten elected president last year. Never would have made it through the process. Obama is, at best, the one most likely to have a lightbulb go on after a while.
Unless it doesn't, of course.
Do you hear us up there in the Ivory Snow (tm) Pavilion?
The mandarins are all out in the main courtyard, shouting and throwing inkpots at the eunuchs.
Even the ministers are out here.
Better get out here and put all the cream of the administrative talent in your empire under arrest, or listen to what we have to say. We're not going to shut up and go home, we're much to educated for that. Most of us are finance professionals or queer obsessives and this IS home.
Fail the insolvent banks.
Fail the insolvent banks.
Fail the insolvent banks.
How many MORE billions will we waste before we do the right thing? How much MORE will the eunuch parasites siphon away from the altars of soil and grain?
This is what should have been done all along. None of you mealy-mouthed rubberspines in power -- and I know you're reading this -- had the fortitude to admit it and look where we got. Now get out there and do what needs to be done so this can go from the fall of the Han Dynasty back to being a financial crisis.
They can't hear you, Byz_R. They can't hear Hoenig either. Here's a summary of his speech today:
Fed's Hoenig: Fed Response To Crisis Has Been Correct
Fed's Hoenig: Fed Response To Crisis Has Been Correct
That's what they heard.
The way our uncle sees it, it will never run out. Argentina 2001 here we come. Yes We Can!
That's what they heard.
So the age old question WAS answered... trees falling DON'T make sound unless NY Fed Execs are there.
RobDawg,
Hoenig for Fed Chairman indeed, but don't you find it troubling that Hoening did nothing to curb the abuses of Greenspan and Bernanke? To me, it looks like Hoenig is just posturing for the job that Bernanke will leave open and that Timmie Geithner will not get (because he is going to flame out).
What is Hoenig's record in working against the credit bubble? I have not seen him do anything very useful in 2000-2009, but I am more than willing to be educated.
What is Hoenig's record in working against the credit bubble? I have not seen him do anything very useful in 2000-2009, but I am more than willing to be educated.
Hell he is from KC playing in a NY world... he CAN'T do anything. Nor will he get the nod - Wall Street won't allow it. He even said as much in the first part of Q&A when asked about the what will happen to NYC if the banks die - the Fed was constructed the way it was w/ 12 'remote' districts to try and balance off against Wall Street power - good luck w/ that. Mostly token.
There is nothing he could do [except scream in the wilderness - today was example]
He has a better chance at being America's Next Idol than Fed Chrmn...
I learned this well - in the farm crisis - they turned the center of the country upside down & shook it for 3-4 years and other than Willie Nelson concerts nobody even knew it was happening. They are going to pick a guy to run the fed from these parts? Hardly.
I think the biggest threat going forward is the fact that the government is now the dominant player in the housing, banking, auto, insurance and CRE industries. Over time, this lends itself to cronyism, mis-allocation of resources and market failure.
ummm... so true. until Obama was inaugurated we had no market failures, cronyism or misallocation of resrouces... oh. wait...
Let troubled Fed presidents fail...
dryfly,
I'm sure much of what you say is right, but did Hoenig even speak up or was he just playing along so that he could have a chance later?
What is terrible troubling with these hierarchical and undemocratic institutions is that in order to get to the top (and perhaps do something good). you have to play along for 35 years while a succession of bandits plunders the country.
It should be pretty clear that we have a structural problem here, in terms of how many important institutions are governed and governing us.
I'm sure much of what you say is right, but did Hoenig even speak up or was he just playing along so that he could have a chance later?
He waffled - he wasn't a rah-rah save Wall Street cheerleader - I recall some of his earlier comments as having 'reservations' about the directions... but he didn't stick his neck out either. And it wasn't to have a 'chance' later - it was probably to keep his job THEN. If he had spoken out forcefully and often against Wall Street early or even circa late 2007... he would be 'gone' now.
These guys only tolerate dissent if it is ineffective.
Sure wish I had said that! Let them fail and get chopped up so that they are almost local again.
At their present size they are not accountable to anyone.